Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
Antarctica sea ice is at a โmind-blowingโ record low winter area of 17 million square kilometres, reports a three-person BBC โNews Climate & Science and Data Journalism Teamโ, as lower levels than those recorded in the recent past provide the cue for yet more media climate hysteria.
Antarctica sea ice is at a โmind-blowingโ record low winter area of 17 million square kilometres, reports a three-person BBC โNews Climate & Science and Data Journalism Teamโ, as lower levels than those recorded in the recent past provide the cue for yet more media climate hysteria. Of course, the BBC headline is clickbait nonsense, not least because it has been generally known in scientific circles that early NASA Nimbus satellites showed even lower winter levels around 15 million sq. kms in 1966. But the BBC story does provide an excellent example of how science is twisted to fit the political narrative supporting the collectivist Net Zero agenda. Any unusual variation in weather and natural events is treated as evidence of a climate collapse requiring urgent human intervention.
The BBC reports that according to satellite data, sea ice surrounding Antarctica is well below any previous recorded winter level. It is said to show a worrying new benchmark for a region โthat once seemed resistant to global warmingโ โ that last phrase of course is a reference to the fact that Antarctica has shown little or no warming over the last 70 years. Dr. Walter Meier, who monitors sea ice with the Colorado-based National Snow and Ice Data Centre, helpfully added: โItโs so far outside anything weโve seen, it almost mind-blowing.โ
This would appear to be the same Dr. Walter Meier who was part of the science team that cracked open the secrets of the early Nimbus data that revealed significant Antarctica sea ice variability in the 1960s, including a high in 1964, not seen again until 2014, and the low for 1966. This is what he told NASA Earth Data in 2016:
Even in the passive microwave record [available since 1979] for the Antarctic you see these seesaws where the ice concentrations go up and down, so extreme high or extreme low are not that unusual. What the Nimbus data tell us is thereโs variability in the Antarctica sea ice thatโs larger than any we had seen from the passive microwave data. Nimbus helps put this in a longer term context and extends the record.
At the time, the Nimbus Data Rescue Project won awards and was highly praised for re-examining data that had been kept in store for 40 years. Meier noted that the longer term context that the Nimbus data provides is really valuable and useful for the science community. These days, Meier tells the BBC he is โnot optimistic that the sea ice will recover to a significant degreeโ. Another member of the Nimbus recovery team has noted that the data would improve the accuracy of climate models, since predicting the past successfully can help projections going forward. Whether any of this has been taken on board is a moot point. Certainly Dr. Meier doesnโt seem to have shared his previous enthusiasm for the Nimbus data when he recently spoke to the BBC.
What a difference just seven years makes in the climate alarm business.
As the Daily Sceptic has often noted in the past, Antarctica is a difficult place to create climate panic. Over the last seven decades there has been little or no warming over large areas of the continent. What warming there has been on the west side is directly on top of large numbers of volcanoes. According to a recent paper (by Singh and Polvani), Antarctica sea ice has โmodestly expandedโ and warming has been โโnearly non-existentโ in this period. According to NASA figures, the ice loss is 0.0005% a year. Another recent paper found that ice shelves surrounding the continent grew in overall size in the years 2009-2019. As an example of how humans cause the climate to warm by burning fossil fuel, Antarctica leaves a lot to be desired.
The BBC article, co-written by the increasingly prominent green activist Georgina Rannard, is a classic mainstream media cherry-pick of one year of natural variation to support the view that the climate is somehow heading for collapse. As can be seen in this case, evidence that challenges the wild โscientists sayโ predictions is ignored, and seemingly not considered suitable for inquiry. Dr. Caroline Holmes of the British Antarctica Survey is reported to note that when summer comes, โthereโs potential for an unstoppable feedback loop of ice meltingโ.
โAre we awakening this giant of Antarctica?โ asks Professor Martin Siegert of Exeter University. โIt would be an absolute disaster for the world,โ he adds in response to his meaningless first utterance. Professor Anna Hogg, who is reported to be an โEarth scientistโ at the University of Leeds, opines that there are signs that what is happening to Antarctica ice sheets is in the worst case scenario range of what was predicted. Predicted by what? Almost certainly computer models using a โpathwayโ assuming 5ยฐC global warming in less than 80 years. That pathway, regular readers will recall, infects about half the headline-grabbing predictions now made by climate science papers, despite the International Panel on Climate Change deeming it of โlow likelihoodโ.
So it continues โ โsettledโ science corrupting much of the scientific process while inconvenient facts and data are ignored in the interest of persuading populations that time is running out to save the boiling planet.
Chris Morrison isthe Daily ScepticโsEnvironment Editor.
The online publication Euronewsโ โGreenโ section posted an article claiming that invasive fire ants are โlikelyโ to spread due to climate change. This claim is a stretch, based on predicted warming from climate models, and makes only brief mention of the fact that Sicily and other parts of Europe are already suitable habitat for invasive fire ants. Not to mention the fact that fire ants currently thrive in North America.
Solenopsis invicta, CC BY-SA 4.0ย , via Wikimedia Commons
The online publication Euronewsโ โGreenโ section posted an article claiming that invasive fire ants are โlikelyโ to spread due to climate change. This claim is a stretch, based on predicted warming from climate models, and makes only brief mention of the fact that Sicily and other parts of Europe are already suitable habitat for invasive fire ants. Not to mention the fact that fire ants currently thrive in North America.
The article, โInvasive fire ants have made it to Europe โ and theyโre likely to spread as the climate heats up,โ is somewhat temperate compared to other fearful predictive posts often covered by Climate Realism, but still reports uncritically on a study that bases most of its warming related claims on climate model projections of future conditions. Euronews claims that the study โwarns that, with the help of global warming, the ants could spread across the continent.โ
The article goes on to say that the climate in โhalf of Europeโs urban areas is already suitable for the species,โ however this appears to be a mistake, because later it is clarified that half the urban areas sampled are suitable, much of northern and eastern Europe were not included in the study. This is notable because those regions are the most obviously inhospitable to fire ants. The vast majority of the urban areas โcurrently suitableโ are along the Mediterranean coastlines, and all in places where winters are typically mild. Additionally, urban areas tend to be hotter than the surrounding countryside, especially at night and in winter, due to the urban heat island effect.
Fire ants seem well established in Sicily, which was the main focus of the study, as 88 active, well established fire ant nests have been found near busy port cities in the area. Euronews says the ants are most likely from the southern United States, or China or Taiwan, based on genetics. To be clear, just as in the United States, fire ants didnโt migrate to Sicily due to the climate suddenly becoming hospitable to them. Rather the ants were introduced unintentionally as unwelcome passengers via trade from countries they already inhabit.
Euronews does admit that โthe ants could establish themselves in 7 per cent of Europe and the Mediterranean under current environmental conditions,โ but they go on to assert โprojections show that Europeโs environment is likely to become more widely suited for the ants as the climate heats up.โ
As admitted, Sicily, along with 7 percent of Europe (according to the study) already has a climate that is suitable for fire ants. Like much of California, Sicily has a Mediterranean climate, specifically according to Kรถppen climate types, primarily hot-summer Mediterranean climate that is typified by winters that are too mild to kill fire ants off due to the lack of sustained hard freeze periods. While winters in South America, the fire antโs native habitat, and the southern United States, are more humid, they still lack periods of sustained hard freeze. This gives invasive ants the foothold they need to spread.
The good news is, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released a study that attempted to predict the expansion of fire ant colonies; the ants are largely estimated to remain in areas where the frost depth of the soil doesnโt penetrate too far. The same is likely for Europe, if the invasion isnโt squashed in Sicily fast enough.
To say that fire ants are a threat to all or most of Europe due to projected future warming is more speculation than science.
The study itself relies on model projections from WORLDCLIM v2 scenario SSP245, which while not the most extreme of warming projections, does have an embarrassing recent record of greatly overestimating the warming in the U.S. corn belt, as covered by Climate Realism in โPJ Media, Steve Milloy, and Dr. Roy Spencer Show Climate Models Overestimate Corn Belt Warming.โ Most egregiously, they include projections from HadGEM3-GC31-LL, which projected about seven times more warming than has been observed.
Climate Realism has covered just how suspect these models are on many occasions, but mainstream media outlets continue uncritically report model predictions despite their poor track records.
While it is certainly a good idea to get ahead of a European fire ant invasion, as I currently write thisย Climate Realismย post with my foot covered in fire ant stings myself, there is no need to fearmonger over climate change, especially with models that run way too hot. Invasive species are a serious problem for human comfort and safety as well as native speciesโ health. Euronews should be able to report on a worrying invasion of fire ants and perhaps offer some solutions without tying their coverage to climate alarm.
Linnea Lueken is a Research Fellow with the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy.
While she was an intern with The Heartland Institute in 2018, she co-authored a Heartland Institute Policy Brief “Debunking Four Persistent Myths About Hydraulic Fracturing.”
Welcome to the inaugural episode of Davos Watch. This episode dives into a report by the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, scrutinizing the actions and agendas of global elites from Davos to the UN. The report outlines ambitious targets for 2030 in areas such as meat consumption, clothing purchases, and personal transportation.
Welcome to the inaugural episode of Davos Watch. This episode dives into a report by the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, scrutinizing the actions and agendas of global elites from Davos to the UN. The report outlines ambitious targets for 2030 in areas such as meat consumption, clothing purchases, and personal transportation.
๐ Topics Covered
Introduction to Davos Watch
Overview of the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group
“The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5 Degree Celsius World”
C40’s proposed “consumption interventions”
Cities involved and their commitments
Davos Watch takes place live during our weekly In The Tank podcast, broadcast every Thursday at 12pm CT on our sister channel, Stopping Socialism TV.
This new study in The Times not only shows that EV sales to private buyers has actually dropped year-on-year. It also indicated that about 8% of private sales are BEV.
Detailed data reveals that private motorists have stopped buying
Hopes for the mainstream adoption of electric cars have been punctured by figures revealing a fall of more than 11 per cent in the sale of zero-emission vehicles to private buyers.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders has said that motorists are holding back from the switch because of continued uncertainty about whether a government ban on petrol and diesel cars will be enforced, the cost of electric vehicles, the cutting of financial incentives, and fears about the lack of a public recharging network.
Ministers and the industry have previously hailed rising sales of electric cars as a sign that Britain is ready to move from the โearly adopterโ stage of battery electric vehicle (BEV) ownership to mass market.
However, the number of electric cars bought by private owners has fallen from more than one in three of the BEV market to less than one in four in just a year. Figures for the first half of the year showed a 32 per cent surge in BEV sales to 152,000 cars, accounting for a sixth of all new registrations.
However, detailed data reveals that private motorists have stopped buying.
The vast majority of new BEV registrations this year โ more than 75 per cent โ were with fleets and business owners, which can take advantage of company car tax breaks, the benefits-in-kind regime and salary-sacrifice schemes that mean running an electric car attracts dramatically less tax.
In the first half of this year, 37,000 new electric cars were registered to private retail-buying motorists, or just 24.2 per cent of all BEVs. That is down from the 41,800 BEVs sold to private motorists in the first half of last year when retail buyers accounted for 36.3 per cent of all electric car sales.
The fall coincides not only with the cost of living crisis but also with the scrapping of the โplug-in car grantโ, which at one stage was worth up to ยฃ5,000 off a new electric car. Full story
I have strongly suspected for a long time that most EVs are bought by businesses and fleets, but have never found that data to back it up.
This new study in The Times not only shows that EV sales to private buyers has actually dropped year-on-year. It also indicated that about 8% of private sales are BEV.
Over the last 200 years, when the world populated from 1 to 8 billion, we learned that crude oil is virtually useless unless itโs manufactured (refineries) into oil derivatives that are the basis of the fuels to move the heavy-weight and long-range needs of more than 50,000 jets moving people and products, and more than 50,000 merchant ships for global trade flows, and the military and space programs.
World wide cargo transport concept. Vector illustration
Over the last 200 years, when the world populated from 1 to 8 billion, we learned that crude oil is virtually useless unless itโs manufactured (refineries) into oil derivatives that are the basis of the fuels to move the heavy-weight and long-range needs of more than 50,000 jets moving people and products, and more than 50,000 merchant ships for global trade flows, and the military and space programs.
Today, chemical products, such as plastics, solvents, and fertilizers, include more than 6,000 oil-based products that are essential for supporting modern lifestyles.
Recognizing that eradicating the world of oil without a replacement in mind would be immoral and evil, as extreme shortages of the products now manufactured from fossil fuels will result in billions of fatalities from diseases, malnutrition, and weather-related deaths, and could be the greatest threat to the worldโs eight billion population.
The โenergy conundrum is that โrenewablesโ only generate electricity, yet most products derive from oil.
Wind turbines and solar panels can only generate intermittent electricity. They cannot manufacture any products for society.
Crude oil, on the other hand, is virtually useless unless itโs manufactured (refineries) into the fuels to move the heavy-weight and long-range needs of more than 50,000 jets moving people and products and more than 50,000 merchant ships for global trade flows basis of more than 6,000 products in our daily lives that did not exist before the 1900s, and the military and space programs.
The proverb โyou canโt have your cake and eat it tooโ tells us that you canโt rid the world of crude oil and continue to enjoy the products and fuels manufactured from fossil fuels that can be manufactured into something usable like the fuels for the heavy-weight and long-range transportation infrastructures of ships and jets and the derivatives that make the more than 6,000 products and fuels that have made our lives more comfortable.
Globally, excluding China, about 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity closed since January 2020. The future does not bode well, as 20 percent of the 700 worldwide refineries are expected to close in the next five years, i.e., 140 closures. Further inflation and shortages in perpetuity are guaranteed, as those refineries are manufacturing the fuels for the jets moving people and products, and the merchant ships for global trade flows, of the products for society and the military and space programs.
China is coming to the rescue with Asiaโs 88 new refineries for manufactured oil derivatives that are the basis of almost every product being used by mankind, as well as the manufactured fuels used by every transportation infrastructure and the military.
Like the national debt Ponzi, the shortages of the products, fuels, pesticides, and fertilizers MANUFACTURED from fossil fuels will also contribute to shortages and further inflation in perpetuity as wind turbines and solar panels are both incapable of manufacturing ANYTHING; they just generate occasional electricity.
We may have long-range plans to generate electricity from wind, solar, or nuclear fusion, but no plans to replace crude oil that is manufactured into everything in our daily lives. Thus, efforts to cease the use of crude oil could be the greatest threat to civilization, not climate change, and lead the world to an era of guaranteed extreme shortages of fossil fuel products, as we had in the decarbonized world in the 1800s, which may result in billions of fatalities from diseases, malnutrition, and weather-related deaths trying to live without the 50,000-merchant ship and 50,000 jets, that are moving more than 6,000 products currently benefiting worldwide humanity.
The American Government of 435 Representatives and 100 Senators are laser-focused on ending the โclimate crisisโ by switching to โcleanโ ELECTRICTY. It has few qualms about importing critically needed materials from foreign countries, primarily China โ regardless of economic, defense, national security, ecological, or human rights implications.
The dismal track record of virtually every program implemented by the Government is broken, and most likely, the clean electricity program will have results similar to previous programs such as:
Social Security established 88 years ago in 1935 and is now broken.
Fanny Mae established 85 years ago in 1938 and is now broken.
Medicare and Medicaid established 58 years ago in 1965 and are now broken.
Freddie Mac established 53 years ago in 1970 and is now broken.
United States Department of Energy established 46 years ago in 1977 to lessen our dependence on foreign oil. Now, with 16,000 employees and a 31 billion dollar annual budget, and 46 years later, weโre importing more oil than ever!
A private industry company such Walmart, the most successful and profitable business in America with 2.2 million employees and more than 10,000 stores, may be a better choice to run any energy program being mandated. Is it time to drain the swamp and hire Walmart to run the Government?
World leaders are not cognizant enough to know that wind turbines and solar panels only generate occasional electricity and have no plans to replace the products and fuels now manufactured from fossil fuels, which are the basis of every infrastructure segment supporting the 8 billion on this planet!
Itโs shocking that the media continues to refrain from asking the government leaders and policymakers of current green electricity mandates a John Stossel-styled โgive-me-a-breakโ question: Can you imagine our world without jets, merchant ships, militaries, and space programs?
Ronald Stein is an engineer, senior policy advisor on energy literacy for CFACT, and co-author of the Pulitzer Prize nominated book โClean Energy Exploitations.โ
On September 13 in the EU Parliament, another set of presentations were made at the invitation of MEP Christine Anderson of Germany and some of her colleagues, listed below, who have been doing a sterling job of alerting the EU public to the tyranny that has been going on.
On September 13 in the EU Parliament, another set of presentations were made at the invitation of MEP Christine Anderson of Germany and some of her colleagues, listed below, who have been doing a sterling job of alerting the EU public to the tyranny that has been going on. The video of the presentations is found above.
————
Dr. Peter McCullough (2:36 minutes to 18:45) There have been 2 waves of injury to the world (SARS-CoV 2 & the vaccine) โ the role of the WHO appears to be adverse in both of these cases;
WHO is part of a globalist NGO-govt. syndicate (actors are all named); many of these conspired in 2020 to cover up what they knew;
WHO has deceived the world and impeded doctorsโ ability to treat patients effectively;
weโre going on 3 years now and there is nothing to relieve human suffering on this; most deaths were preventable;
the vaccines have โravaged the population in the worldโ (2/3 of the world took them);
the genetic design of the vaccine has been a disaster; everyone agrees about the heart damage done by them โ many young people are having cardiac arrests โdue to the vaccine until proven otherwiseโ;
neurological damage is the 2nd domain;
3rd, blood clots โlike weโve never seen beforeโ which wonโt dissolve up to 2 year with conventional blood thinners;
4th, immunological disorders; cardiac arrests have happened up to TWO YEARS after the shots; 74% of deaths after vaccination are due to the vaccine;
in myocarditis cases, 100% of deaths are due to the vaccine; there have been 3 false narratives,
the latest being that it is Covid, not the vaccine, that is killing people; vaccines are โcausing this enormous wave of illnessโ;
one study says that 30% of vaccinated people have experienced NO side effects; less than 70% are getting some symptoms, with a small percentage getting dramatic illnesses โ some batches are โhigh riskโ (small % estimates range thus,
4.2% โ 7.7% โ 15%); no-one should take another shot โ they should be removed for โexcess risk of deathโ โ many groups are coming out, based on the evidence, saying this; they are not safe for human use;
yet WHO is still standing behind these vaccines; all major stakeholders should pull out of the WHO.
Dr. David Martin (30:24 minutes to 54:56)
๐๐ผ๐๐ผ โFor 110 years, we the people of the world have been lied to โฆโ ๐๐ผ๐๐ผ โIโm done being politeโ ๐๐ผ๐๐ผ โThis (WHO) is a criminal cartelโ ๐๐ผ๐๐ผ โWe did not have a pandemic, we had genocideโ
MEP Christine Anderson concluding remarks (1:12:28 to 1:18:25)
Pinning your power needs to intermittent wind and solar power comes with a grab bag of consequences. Not least, blackouts whenever surging demand coincides with calm weather and/or sunset. Whether itโs wind and solar-obsessed South Australia or Germany, the results are inevitable.
South Africa is on track for a record year of power cuts. Photographer: Dwayne Senior/Bloomberg
Pinning your power needs to intermittent wind and solar power comes with a grab bag of consequences. Not least, blackouts whenever surging demand coincides with calm weather and/or sunset.
Whether itโs wind and solar-obsessed South Australia or Germany, the results are inevitable.
The cancer that began in South Australia โ the only state in Australia to ever suffer a statewide blackout (that lasted for days in places) and a string of others โ has spread across the Eastern Grid to other states following SAโs wind and solar-obsessed lead.
The team from Jo Nova outlines a very dark future for Australian power consumers. Following which, we turn to an extract from a documentary put together by Deutsche Welle, that heralds an equally dismal future for Germans.
Panic now: The Australian national grid manager admits blackouts are coming Jo Nova Blog Jo Nova 2 September 2023
Weโre on the precipice of a radical experiment with a national electricity grid.
The AEMO (manager of the Australian grid) has finally released the major report on problems coming in the next ten years on our national grid, and itโs worse than they thought even six months ago. They euphemistically refer to the coming โreliability gapsโ. They could have said โblackoutsโ instead, but a gap in reliability sounds so much nicer.
Bizarrely, the lead graph of theย 175 page AEMO reportย goes right off the scale, mysteriously peaking in the unknown and invisible real estate off the top of the chart.ย And theyโre not projecting troubles fifty years from now. Those cropped peaks of invisible pain hit from 2027.
And even the pain we can see is apparently quite bad. Two states are already likely to breach โthe interim reliability measureโ in this coming summer. Ominously, just one day after releasing the report, the AEMO is calling for tenders for โreliability reservesโ in South Australia and Victoria. Apparently, they want offers of industries ready to shut down who arenโt already on the list, and they want spare generation too โ get this โ even asking for โsmall onsite generatorsโ. Does that sound bad to you? It sounds bad to me.
โBased on current trajectory, weโre in for a world of pain ahead. โฆthe AEMO projections are looking pretty dire.โ
Consider figure 1: A decade of blackouts coming
Have you ever seen a graph like this that hides the peaks? In the โcentral scenarioโ of the cropped graph โ โonlyโ four states of Australia go off the charts. Imagine what the bad scenario looks likeโฆ
AEMO, ESOO, 2023. Figure 1 shows the reliability forecast and indicative reliability forecast for the 2023 ESOO Central scenario. This forecast considers only the sub-set of known developments that have demonstrated sufficient commitment towards commissioning in the NEM (those developments classified as committed or anticipated), including announced retirements, and allows for project delivery schedules that may be slower than proponents have advised based on observed development, approval and commissioning requirements.
Given that South Australia flew in diesel jet engines for back up generation at one point (General Electric aero-derivative turbines) โ perhaps we can ask Qatar Airlines if they can plug some planes straight into our grid? (The government wonโt let them fly in more passengers, in case it screws up Qantas profits, but that means they must have a few planes they can spare.)
A leap to Figure 43 suggests those hidden peaks of Figure 1 might be quite high in NSW and Victoria. Figure 43 shows the same โCentral Scenarioโ as Figure 1 โ this time as dotted lines โ and we are allowed to see a bit more of the graph. The y axis is the same Expected Unserved Energy (%) this time reaching up to 0.007%. But the NSW (blue) and Victorian (grey) lines are doing the Moonshot thing in 2027. Theyโre headed to infinity or some number the AEMO didnโt want to graph.
The solid lines in Figure 43 are the slightly better scenarios that include contributions from CER or โConsumer Energy Resourcesโ (thatโs you!). This is what the future looks like with more help from things like solar panels on rooftops, home batteries, and Electric Vehicles. Itโs also the best we can do with DSP assistance โ which means Demand Side Participation โ those people who participate by not demanding electricity. In normal English we would call them the customers who are paid to stay away or something.
Ten different ways to go without electricity The AEMO doesnโt use the word blackout, but it has a dozen flavours of blackouts-by-another-name, many of them voluntary or subsidized and somewhat prearranged. It looks so much better on paper to say โDSPโ but it means someone, somewhere going without electricity when they would otherwise have used it. DSP gets 146 mentions in the AEMO report, giving us some idea on how mini-blackouts are now an essential part of managing a very sick grid.
At a minimum DSP may just be an inconvenience โ people have to program their washing machine and pool filter to run at lunchtime, which sounds fine until you have only one sunny day that week and you have six loads of washing. In a rich world without โreliability gapsโ you would just run it, conveniently, from 5 to 10 pm the night before.
DSP is code for people willing (or dragged), in some sense, to have a voluntary mini-blackout โ and the report notes the major factor driving an increase in DSP uptake is because electricity is now more expensive (what a great thing?). The AEMO notes: โThese higher prices have led to more benefits to customers participating in DSP schemes or responding directly to market signalsโ. Table 5 lists the Negawatts of voluntary outages when prices rise to $1,000, $5,000 and $7,500 per megawatt hourโฆ
Now that Alice lives in Downunder-land โ more expensive electricity means customers get more โbenefitsโ when they donโt use it. See how this works? Only the wealthy will have the convenience of electricity whenever they want it. The underclass will be cooking on barbeques, and getting up earlier each day to program the washing machine and set up the timers for the scooters.
Ominously the AEMO projects a lot more voluntary blackouts:
Drowning in complexity The message in 42 tables and 100 figures is unspoken, but obvious โ the Australian grid is drowning in complexity, there are so many moving unpredictable parts. The report models the various possibilities of low rain, low wind, low stocks of fossil fuels, droughts, heatwaves, and unexpected outages. They try to model some combinations and permutations of multiple troubles occurring simultaneously. Whether we get and can afford electricity now depends on ocean currents in the Pacific that no one can predict. We live in the land of drought and flooding rains, and weโre hoping the weather will be nice.
The AEMO brightly says that it can be managed, see Figure 2, if we just build 10,000 kilometers of high transmission lines through farmland and forests, and then finish all the wind farms and solar magic panels, along with lots more voluntary blackouts, โconsumer investmentsโ (home batteries) and dispatchable capacity (whatever could that be?)
The last thought is the predictions for South Australia: There is an 84% chance under a โneutral/unknown climate outlookโ that South Australia will have no blackouts this summer. But there is a 16% chance that some will occur, and these are most likely to be 1-3 hours long affecting 5 to 30% of the region (which means โof the stateโ, presumably). But there is a tiny chance they might lose half the state for as much as 16 hours (spread over four different nights, say). I bet they are praying they donโt get a hot windless week?
But even if they donโt have one blackout, more of peopleโs lives will be wasted paying electricity bills and reading articles on how to save electricity, how to reprogram the pool filter, how to charge the kids scooter, how to put out fires started by the scooterโฆ
Electricity predictions, South Australia unreliability, blackouts.
If thatโs a neutral/unknown outlook, what does it look like for a long hot summer?
Finally, for the data nerds: The text that officially goes with the graph above:
Figure 22 shows a bubble plot of the distribution of USE outcomes that are forecast in South Australia for the 2023-24 summer, under a neutral/unknown climate outlook. It includes the total outage duration and average depth in each simulation
The remainder of simulations, which are collectively 16% probable, are represented by the other bubbles on the chart. Should USE occur, it is most likely to occur for between one hour and three hours and be of an average USE magnitude equivalent to between 5% and 30% of average regional demand. Within each event, larger magnitudes of USE than the average may occur during the duration of the event.
There is a very low probability for USE as deep as 55% of average regional demand, or as long as 16 total hours, which may occur over multiple individual USE events, for example four different evenings. These outcomes each represent the result of a single annual simulation, with an estimated probability of approximately 1 in 4,000.
Meanwhile in Germany, a surprisingly balanced documentary from DW (Deutsche Welle) Germanyโs left leaning public broadcaster has been released. It looks at the proposed outcomes of country-wide blackouts.
Power failure in Germany โ Horror scenario or genuine possibility? YouTube Deutsche Welle 2 September 2023
Germany wants out of fossil fuels: no coal, no gas, no nuclear power plants. Instead, the country wants to commit fully to renewables. But does this bring with it the threat of a major power blackout?
Germany is gradually realizing where the sticking points are. Take grid security: This is much easier to guarantee in a power network with just a few dozen large power stations than in a decentralized network with multiple small-scale electricity producers such as rooftops with solar panels or wind turbines. โItโs now a matter of having to intervene several times almost every day to guarantee grid security,โ says the spokesperson for one major network operator. If grid security can no longer be maintained, the threat of a nationwide blackout suddenly becomes very real.
Another problem is reliability. Because the sun doesnโt always shine and the wind doesnโt always blow, there might be too little power available on particular days and at particular times of the year. This also raises the possibility of unforeseen power failures. One potential remedy could be power storage.
There are many different ideas about how to securely store energy in order to bridge power gaps in the renewablesโ supply: pumped-storage power plants, hydrogen storage, gigantic batteries. But, if these technologies exist at all, they do so only on a very small scale: Current storage capacity in Germany is 40 gigawatt hours โ enough to supply the country for up to 60 minutes. And if thereโs still no wind and the sun still isnโt shining? Does politics have a plan to provide Germany with sufficient energy to avert a potential blackout? These are some of the key questions explored by this documentary. The lack of comment on Germanyโs crazy closure of its nuclear plants seems a glaring omission.
Power failure in Germany – Horror scenario or genuine possibility? | DW Documentary
Welcome to episode #2 of Davos Watch. This week, host Donald Kendal dives into a report by the World Economic Forum, analyzing the ways financial firms can pressure the agricultural industry into going “green.” Kendal adds context into the failures of various “green” agriculture initiatives with real-world results, from The Netherlands to Sri Lanka.
Welcome to episode #2 of Davos Watch. This week, host Donald Kendal dives into a report by the World Economic Forum, analyzing the ways financial firms can pressure the agricultural industry into going “green.” Kendal adds context into the failures of various “green” agriculture initiatives with real-world results, from The Netherlands to Sri Lanka.
Topics:
The Netherlands Nitrogen Restrictions: A dive into The Netherlands’ push to reduce nitrogen emissions in farming and its unintended consequences. The move has sparked concerns, especially given the Netherlands’ stature as one of the top exporters of food products globally.
Fertilizer Restrictions: The episode sheds light on Sri Lanka’s decision to go completely organic in its agricultural practices, banning the import and use of chemical fertilizers. The move has faced criticism due to the unforeseen challenges it has posed for farmers and the threat to food security.
Justin Trudeau’s Proposal for a Carbon Neutral Agriculture Industry: Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s proposal for a carbon-neutral agricultural industry.
The World Economic Forum’s New Report: The core of the episode revolves around the WEF’s latest report titled, “Green Returns: Unleashing the Power of Finance for Sustainable Food Systems.” Host Donald Kendal provides the problems with the WEF plan forcing the world to go “green,” seizing control of the agriculture industry as a result.
Don’t forget that Davos Watch is a segment of the In The Tank podcast. For more discussions about the global economic and political landscape, join our In The Tank podcast on Stopping Socialism TV every Thursday at 12pm CT!
โIt started with gas cooking.ย It will end with getting gas out of homes and business entirely, If they can.ย Basically, what weโre witnessing is the energy equivalent of ethnic cleansing. Iโve been saying this for years but now it should be obvious.โ
โIt started with gas cooking. It will end with getting gas out of homes and business entirely, If they can. Basically, what weโre witnessing is the energy equivalent of ethnic cleansing. Iโve been saying this for years but now it should be obvious.โ
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under the Biden Administration has significantly accelerated the pace of minimum appliance efficiency rulemaking. With this acceleration, there has been a marked decrease in DOEโs analytical quality and transparency. The purpose of this update is to summarize:
The NODA substantially changed the Supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking and announcement of public meeting & request for comments (SNOPR) that my April 27 article summarized . DOE probably should have (or at least could have) issued its NODA as a SNOPR and allowed more time to develop comments than the 30 days the NOPR allowed. A request for extension of the comment period was timely filed but denied by DOE on August 30. This request contained the following excerpt that summarized the effects of ignoring such requests:
โAd hoc departures are not proper, for such activities disrupt orderly processes and harm predictability, which are the hallmarks of lawful administrative action.โ
Footnote 5 of that statement further stated:
See, e.g., Reuters Ltd. v. FCC, 781 F.2d 946, 950-51 (D.C. Cir. 1986) (โ[I]t is elementary that an agency must adhere to its own rules and regulations. Ad hoc departures from those rules, even to achieve laudable aims, cannot be sanctioned . . . for therein lie the seeds of destruction of the orderliness and predictability which are the hallmarks of lawful administrative action. Simply stated, rules are rules, and fidelity to the rules which have been properly promulgated, consistent with applicable statutory requirements, is required of those to whom Congress has entrusted the regulatory missions of modern life.โ); Brock v. Cathedral Bluffs Shale Oil Co., 796 F.2d 533, 536 (D.C. Cir. 1986) (โIt is axiomatic that an agency must adhere to its own regulations.โ); Mine Reclamation Corp. v. FERC, 30 F.3d 1519, 1524 (D.C. Cir. 1994) (on its way to decision an agency must follow its own regulations). [emphasis added]
The third reference in the above list are my comments. They addressed what has changed since DOE determined (in 2019) that additional efficiency mandates for gas cooking appliances is not justified. In short, Biden happened. With that change, DOE resorted to a longstanding bias that any amount of net positive cash flow (greater than zero) on average was sufficient economic justification. I cited AHAMโs press release โGas Cooking Appliances Remain at Risk Despite New DOE Dataโ for this NODA that succinctly justified what that amount now is:
โThe revised data reduces consumer savings to just 9 cents per month.โ
I contend no one would freely elect to invest in anything with that kind of return-on-investment (ROI). Additionally, 9 cents per month is far less than the uncertainty range within DOEโs economic calculations. Besides, DOEโs economic calculations typically low-ball increased maintenance costs and over-inflate fuel costs (among many other biased input assumptions).
What else has changed is that DOE cost-effectiveness now includes highly controversial benefits from reduced climate change allowed by grossly inflated social cost of carbon (SCC) avoidance and health benefits from improved indoor air quality (IAQ). As shown by the following table, the economic add-ons of โclimateโ (SCC) and โhealthโ (improved IAQ) benefits greatly exceed the reduced energy consumption values (shown as โconsumer operating cost savingsโ) that the enabling legislation envisioned should be the leading criteria under the Energy Conservation and Policy Act (EPCA):
Further summarizing Table 1.2.2, for a 3% discount rate and the shown $259.2 million of DOE estimated net benefits, well over half ($160.8 million) are attributable to factors beyond the original intent of the 1975 Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) to provide โsignificantโ consumer operating cost savings. [1] A similar ratio exists for a 7% discount rate. Of course, โsignificantโ is defined by DOE. And, at least for the present, โsignificantโ appears to mean any amount of net positive cash flow greater than zero.
My comments also cited a recent paper that debunked assumed IAQ benefits. The abstract of that paper follows:
Reliability of Meta-Analysis Research Claims for Gas Stove CookingโChildhood Respiratory Health Associations Abstract: Odds ratios or p-values from individual observational studies can be combined to examine a common causeโeffect research question in meta-analysis. However, reliability of individual studies used in meta-analysis should not be taken for granted as claimed causeโeffect associations may not reproduce. An evaluation was undertaken on meta-analysis of base papers examining gas stove cooking (including nitrogen dioxide, NO2) and childhood asthma and wheeze associations. Numbers of hypotheses tested in 14 of 27 base papers (52%) used in meta-analysis of asthma and wheeze were counted. Test statistics used in the meta-analysis (40 odds ratios with 95% confidence limits) were converted to p-values and presented in p-value plots. The median (interquartile range) of possible numbers of hypotheses tested in the 14 base papers was 15,360 (6,336โ49,152). None of the 14 base papers made mention of correcting for multiple testing, nor was any explanation offered if no multiple testing procedure was used. Given large numbers of hypotheses available, statistics drawn from base papers and used for meta-analysis are likely biased. Even so, p-value plots for gas stoveโcurrent asthma and gas stoveโcurrent wheeze associations show randomness consistent with unproven gas stove harms. The meta-analysis fails to provide reliable evidence for public health policy making on gas stove harms to children in North America. NO2 is not established as a biologically plausible explanation of a causal link with childhood asthma. Biases โ multiple testing and p-hacking โ cannot be ruled out as explanation for a gas stoveโcurrent asthma association claim. Selective reporting is another bias in published literature of gas stoveโchildhood respiratory health studies.
Part 2: Consumer Boilers
On September 12, 2023, DOE held a public webinar to go over its proposal for increased minimum efficiencies for residential boilers. A 59-page slide deck for that meeting is here. (If you have never read one of these slide decks, I urge you to do so. Itโs a relatively painless way of getting familiar with the โadministrative stateโ going about its business of picking winners and losers.)
The meeting went from 10 am to 3 pm (with a 1-hour lunch break). For the very first time (that I can recall), there were many participants representing manufacturing interests that would be adversely impacted by DOEโs proposal, and they were quite vocal about it (in a professional way of course).
Hopefully soon, DOE will publish a transcript of that meeting. That transcript will then become part of the record for this docket and can thus be used in litigation that appears likely at this point. And that is why the public meetings offer a relatively easy way to get โinto the record.โ
And why would manufacturers want to litigate? DOE would put some of them out of business. The reason is DOE would not just ban non-condensing hot water boilers, it would mandate the top end of condensing boiler efficiencies of 95% (โmax-techโ in DOE-speak) as shown on page 56.
Part 3: Consumer Water Heaters
On September 13, 2023, DOE held a public webinar to go over its proposal for increased minimum efficiencies for residential water heaters that lasted 3 hours. A 74-page slide deck for that meeting is here. There were nearly twice as many participants on line compared to the number of webinar participants the day before for consumer boilers; and many of the participants represented water heater manufacturers, some of which would be devastated if DOEโs proposed mandates were finalized.
One manufacturer that stood out in this regard was Rinnai America. Rinnai is the sole manufacturer of non-condensing tankless water heaters in the U.S. Rinnaiโs President stated, as I recall, that DOEโs proposed ban of non-condensing water heaters would shut down Rinnaiโs new factory that cost $70 million. That, of course, would devastate the many involved.
Like the consumer cooking NODA, DOE consumer water heating NOPR is again calling for a very short comment period (ending on September 26, 2023). A request for extending the comment period has been submitted, but DOE has yet to acknowledge it.
Conclusions
DOE has been (ostensibly) โimprovingโ appliance efficiency for nearly a half-century. The low hanging fruit is long gone. In many cases, DOE is doing more harm than good and using unfair tactics to maintain control and reward its minions. What we have now is relentless self-serving โmission creepโ of the administrative state and its โuseful idiotsโ that forces consumers to fund the erosion of viable energy alternatives. The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act is greatly aiding and abetting this forced transformation away from free market forces.
โIndustryโ can elect to litigate whatever final rule DOE chooses to further regulate consumer appliance minimum efficiencies. Thatโs what we did for commercial boilers and we โwon.โ But doing so takes years and very deep pockets. Furthermore, even if โindustryโ prevails and gets a bad rule vacated, a new review is required every 6 years under EPCA. Another concern is when the clock restarts once a final rule is vacated. I donโt know. It could be argued that 6 years has passed already and DOE could possibly re-analyze the need for new commercial boiler standards immediately.
DOE doesnโt care what it costs to litigate. After all, DOE has the backing of the Department of Justice for such matters. In my opinion, DOE has strayed too far from any redeeming virtue that may have originally existed from the 1975 passage of EPCA. Itโs past time for Congress clean up the mess it created by enacting EPCA and the numerous ambiguous loopholes that gives undeserved deference to the administrative state to interpret. A valid question is whether EPCA (and DOE for that matter) should be salvaged or scrapped.
Next Steps
We plan on making EPCA (reform or abolishment) a top priority. Defunding the IRA goes hand-in-hand with overhauling EPCA. DOE reform also requires DOE to obey its so-called โprocess rule.โ I recommend that Congress order DOE to do so in conjunction with public workshops that fully include โwe, the peopleโ rather than preclude them (as did DOEโs misguided attempt at โpeer reviewโ with the National Academies. [For a full review of DOEโs process , please see my December 9, 2020, article, Energy Efficiency Policy Under Trump (Part II: EEREโs Process Rule & Overhaul). Also see the attachments to my comments for the gas cooking NOPR.]
Bidenโs DOE wants to eliminate alternatives to electricity. This fixation became apparent to all with their planned elimination of gas cooking and ran head-on with consumers that hold gas cooking near-and-dear. Consumer preferences for gas cooking was and is a major obstacle to control via societal electrification overall.
This exact sentiment was a subject of discussion at the Electric Power Research Instituteโs (EPRI) Electrification 2018 International Conference & Exposition that I attended. If you follow the link, note how EPRI coopted the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) to endorse it. But Iโll have to leave this situation for another time (stay tuned).
As this article hopefully conveys, it started with gas cooking. It will end with getting gas out of homes and business entirely, If they can. Basically, what weโre witnessing is the energy equivalent of ethnic cleansing under the guise of fighting the โexistential threatโ of anthropogenic global warming. Iโve been saying this for years but now it should be obvious.
โโโโโโโโโโ
Mark Krebs, a mechanical engineer and energy policy consultant, has been involved with energy efficiency design and program evaluation for over thirty years. Mark has served as an expert witness in dozens of State energy efficiency proceedings, has been an advisor to DOE and has submitted scores of Federal energy-efficiency filings. His many MasterResource posts on natural gas vs. electricity and โDeep Decarbonizationโ federal policy can be found here.
Markโs first article was in Public Utilities Fortnightly, titled โItโs a War Out There: A Gas Man Questions Electric Efficiencyโ (December 1996). Recently retired from Spire Inc., Krebs has formed an energy policy consultancy (Gas Analytic & Advocacy Services) with other veteran energy analysts.
[1] Note: EPCA was and is an energy and economic statute, NOT an environmental nor public health statute despite DOEโs decades of trying to make it so.
โโโโโโโโโโ
Mark Krebs, a mechanical engineer and energy policy consultant, has been involved with energy efficiency design and program evaluation for over thirty years. Mark has served as an expert witness in dozens of State energy efficiency proceedings, has been an advisor to DOE and has submitted scores of Federal energy-efficiency filings. His many MasterResource posts on natural gas vs. electricity and โDeep Decarbonizationโ federal policy can be found here.
Markโs first article was in Public Utilities Fortnightly, titledย โItโs a War Out There: A Gas Man Questions Electric Efficiencyโย (December 1996). Recently retired from Spire Inc., Krebs has formed an energy policy consultancy (Gas Analytic & Advocacy Services) with other veteran energy analysts.
The following interview will show โ if there were still the need to show it โ thatย the climate systemย is quite far to be well understood, thereby it isย quite far fromย the truth any claim according to which on the matterย โscience is settledโ,ย as Al Gore and the IPCC have been claiming for 20 years.
Interview of Prof. V. Zharkova by Franco Battaglia for the Italian newspaper La Verita Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.
The following interview will show โ if there were still the need to show it โ that the climate system is quite far to be well understood, thereby it is quite far from the truth any claim according to which on the matter โscience is settledโ, as Al Gore and the IPCC have been claiming for 20 years. Valentina Zharkova is an outstanding Ukrainian scientist: she graduated from the University of Kiev in Applied mathematics, first, and then completed her PhD studies in Astrophysics from the Main Astronomical Observatory in Kiev. For the past 30 years she worked in the UK Universities of Glasgow, Bradford and Northumbria, since 2005 as a Professor of Applied Mathematics. At the present she is Professor Emeritus at Northumbria University (Newcastle, UK) and Director of ZVS Research Enterprise Ltd. (London UK).
Q. Prof. Zharkova,ย people say that the Earth is warmingย since the beginning of the Industrial revolution and that this isย due to human activities. Do you have any comment on that?
A. Actually the Earth is warming since 1690, the minimum of the Little Ice Age. In 1976, Prof. John Eddy established that the terrestrial temperature follows solar radiation deposition during solar activity cycles, increasing during the solar cycle maxima and decreasing during solar minima. Then, in 1995, prof. Judith Lean and collaborators discovered and later in 2016 Prof. Don Easterbrook confirmed that the input of solar radiation to Earth was decreased during the Maunder minimum in 1645-1710 by about 3 W/m2 leading to a decrease of terrestrial temperature during what is now called the Little Ice Age. Since 1700 and the recovery of the Maunder minimum the solar radiation deposition to Earth restored to previous level and terrestrial temperature followed solar activity cycles.
Q. Has then the solar activity been increasing during the last few decades?
A.ย No. Actually the solar activity has beenย decreasing since the 80โs of the last century.
Q. This is why IPCC has concluded that the present warming is due to humans?
A. Exactly, the warming is present but it is not due to humans. They make a mistake: they assume that solar radiation is essentially constant, thereby attributing the warming to CO2โs enhanced concentration in the terrestrial atmosphere.
Q. Could you clarify?
A. Within solar activity there are two important cycles: one โ the small solar cycle โ with a 11-year period and the other โ the grand solar cycle โ with a 350-year period. The grand solar cycles are separated by grand solar minima (GSMs), the most recent of them occurred during Maunder minimum (1645-1710). The GSM acts on the terrestrial environment via the cold air jets coming from Arctic and Antarctica because of the reduction of solar UV radiation and ozone abundances in the terrestrial atmosphere. Now there is a current solar cycle (cycle number 25) is showing to have the largest numbers of spotless days than any other cycles of the last 280 years of observations. During the modern GSM, similar to Maunder minimum, the solar radiation is expected to decrease by about 3 W/m2. The terrestrial temperature is then expected to decrease in the next three decades by about 1C. This was recorded during the Maunder Minimum and the same is expected in the modern GSM (2020-2050).
But the further change of solar irradiance deposited to the Earth can be caused by other effects.
Q. Namely?
A. By orbital effects. There are well known Milankovitch cycles caused by various variation of the earth orbit eccentricity, inclination of its axis to the ecliptics, aberrations. These periods vary from 15K to 100K years and well protocolled in the terrestrial biomass. There is a shorter period of solar radiation changes with a period of about two millennia: Hallstattโs cycle. It reflects medium-scale variations of the solar radiation level whose origin comes not from the dynamo activity inside the Sun but from the Sunโs position with respect to the orbit focus, or barycentre, where it supposed to reside according to Kepler motion, or so called, solar inertial motion (SIM). This means that the Sun is shifted, or wobbling from its focus/barycentre position on two millennial scale, so that Sun-Earth distance has to change on the two millennial period.
Basically, this happensย because of the gravitation from Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Uranus, the Sun does not sit in the focus of the ellipse of the Earth orbit,ย but performs the motion called SIM (wobbling on smaller orbits) about this focus. This principle of wobbling stars is used to search for exoplanets becauseย wobbling star proves that it has a planetary system attached.ย In fact, the official ephemeris of the Sun-Earth distance taken from Paris-Meudon observatory and NASA JPL sites show that in the millennium 1600-2600 the Sun in February-June of every year is closer to the Earth orbit when the Sun is closer to the point of the spring equinox of the Northern hemisphere, leaving the Earth to be further from the Sun in August-December than in the usual elliptical orbit when the Sun is in its focus.
This SIM leads to an increase of the solar radiation deposited to the Earth every year during the first half of a year and, thus, to the increase of the terrestrial temperature in March-July of every year by approximately 10-12 W/m2 for each hemisphere. With the exchange of solar heating via the ocean the terrestrial atmosphere is heated to higher temperatures owing this SIM, and this extra heating occurs since the Maunder Minimum to last until 2600. The SIM provides the extra-solar heating of terrestrial atmosphere, which is not considered in the IPCC models.
Hence, the solar irradiance is not a constant, but changes on a scale of 11 and 350 years, as induced by the solar dynamo action, and on a two-millennial scale as induced by the solar inertial motion.
Q. In other words, you are saying that IPCC found in the CO2 the wrong source of increasing terrestrial temperature?
A. Yes. In fact the increase of CO2 abundances is a consequence of the temperature increase but not its reason as Patrick Moore of Canada has shown in his book. The main part of solar radiation energy is stored in the Ultraviolet (UV) region, much less in the visible spectrum and even less in the infra-red spectrum where molecules of CO2 emit. CO2 molecules only re-scatter the UV solar emission in much weaker infrared part of solar spectrum. CO2 does not have the emission energy to heat anything because its radiation is the in low energy infra-red range! The abundances of CO2 molecules increases every year, this is correct, but because the Sun deposits more radiation to Earth and other planets owing to SIM.
The IPCC models calculate the emission from the layer containing increased number of CO2 molecules by simply adding all the emission by each extra CO2 molecules appeared in the past 200 years. This is not correct! Because the emission from a thick layer of CO2 is locked inside this layer by radiative transfer effects, so that the emission emitted outside this layer has a saturation effect independent on the abundance of CO2 inside the layer!
Instead, I have shown that owing to SIM, the increase of solar radiation in this millennium will be about about 10-12 W/m2 per hemisphere and per year, until around 2600. This means that the temperatureincrease will continue by further 2.5-3.0C until 2600 independently of any actions on the Earth and other planets. If this extra-solar heating is included then the whole temperature increase since Maunder Minimum is provided by the solar radiation because of SIM as it should because it is the only heating we have in the solar system.
In conclusion, the real reason of the current heating of terrestrial atmosphere since the Maunder minimum is this extra-solar heating caused by the orbital motion of the Sun. And currently the Sun is already visibly closer to the Earth (and other planet orbits) during the springs and summers.
Q. Is there a way to test your theory?
A. Sure, it is. In the next 30 years it will be shown what is heating the Earth atmosphere: the Sun or human activity. Currently, the Sun is approaching the grand solar minimum (GSM) predicted by us in 2015, when the Sun itself is going into hibernation as all the observations of sunspots show, producing less and less active regions, flares, sunspots and coronal mass ejections. This should cause a steaming decrease of the terrestrial temperature by up to 1C in cycle 26 (2031-2042). This decrease should happen in spite the Sun already closer to Earth and increased by 2020 its temperature by 1.2C since the Maunder minimum.
If AGW were in action, then we would not observe any decrease of the terrestrial temperature, only its increase.
However, this year and a few previous years show clearly that the Earth is on the course to a decrease of terrestrial temperature. We will see the terrestrial temperature to decrease and rather dramatically decrease in the next decade or two because of the reduced activity, or GSM, of the Sun.
Q. I imagine that the whole issue, including your finding, is still quite controversial. Would you then agree that it is safe to say that the matter is quite far from being settled?
A. Definitely!
Well, in the medieval age the settled model of the solar system was Ptolemyโs model where the Sun and planets revolve about the Earth. They invented two circles for each planet to explain their strange jumps on the sky. The church considered the science settled then.
So settled that when Copernicus proposed in 1532 the heliocentric system, where the Sun is the main central star and all planets revolve about it, they considered it as heresy. We know what happened to Giordano Bruno and led to Galileo to deny Copernicus model to survive.
Until nearly a century later, in 1610-1620 Kepler formulated three laws of the planets revolving about the central star. But only in 1665 or 1666 Isaak Newton discovered the gravity, which was only roughly (via central star-planets) included into Keplerโs laws.
And only in 1965 Josecalculated the gravity effects not only of the central star on its planets but also of the planets on the central star, thus discovering the starโs motion, naming it SIM.
Maybe it is the time to progress correctly with the orbital effects of solar and planetary motion!
The Heartland Institute
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