Month: October 2026

Discovery of Bromochloropyrene Reveals Unexpected Hybrid Properties in Environmental Contaminants

Researchers from Meijo University (led by Professor Takeshi Ohura, with graduate student Natsuki Nasuda) and the National Institute of Animal Health (Dr. Keerthi S. Guruge) have identified bromochloropyrene (BrClPy) as an environmental contaminant in industrial soils and sediments in Japan.

The discovery of bromochloropyrene (BrClPy) has primarily precautionary implications for human health rather than demonstrated acute or widespread risks at current environmental levels.

The aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR, also called AHR) is a ligand- activated transcription factor of the basic helix- loop-helix and Per- ARNT-Sim (bHLH- PAS) family.

Infographic illustrating the discovery of Bromochloropyrene, highlighting its properties and significance in environmental contaminants, with locations marked for water and soil sampling sites in Tokyo Bay.
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Researchers from Meijo University (led by Professor Takeshi Ohura, with graduate student Natsuki Nasuda) and the National Institute of Animal Health (Dr. Keerthi S. Guruge) have identified bromochloropyrene (BrClPy) as an environmental contaminant in industrial soils and sediments in Japan.

It is a hetero- halogenated (mixed bromine- and chlorine- containing) polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) with hybrid properties that do not simply match those of purely brominated or chlorinated analogs.

Key findings

  • Occurrence: BrClPy was detected in 10 of 20 surface soil samples from industrial areas along Tokyo Bay (mean concentration 0.13 ng/g) and in 1 of 3 sediment samples from Nagoya Port (mean 0.42 ng/g). Soil concentrations correlated strongly with brominated pyrenes, suggesting formation is more closely tied to bromination processes than to chlorinated pyrenes.⁠
  • Photostability: Under simulated sunlight, BrClPy was roughly half as stable as 1-chloropyrene (similar to the behavior of brominated pyrenes). It primarily lost bromine, forming 1-chloropyrene; loss of chlorine was not observed.⁠
  • Biological activity: In a yeast- based aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) assay, BrClPy showed an estimated potency of 0.18 relative to benzo[a]pyrene. This was similar to dichloropyrene and about 4- 5 times higher than dibromopyrene.

Overall, BrClPy combines the environmental and photolytic behavior of brominated pyrenes with the stronger AhR-mediated activity more typical of chlorinated ones. This points to “emergent” properties of hetero -halogenated PAHs that cannot be predicted from single -halogen compounds alone.

The work (published online September 22, 2026, in Emerging Contaminants, DOI: 10.1016/j.emcon.2026.100758) provides the first evidence of BrClPy contamination in real urban/industrial soils and sediments.

The authors note that monitoring programs may currently overlook mixed-halogen pollutants and call for further research on formation pathways, environmental fate, and biological effects of related compounds to improve risk assessment and regulation.

The study was supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI grants.

A hand holding a transparent glass container filled with fine sand, positioned above soil.
Researchers detected bromochloropyrene, a pollutant containing both bromine and chlorine, in soil and sediment samples from industrial areas in Japan, establishing a new class of environmental contaminants with unique biological activities. Credit: tocalcollege from Openverse

The discovery of bromochloropyrene (BrClPy) has primarily precautionary implications for human health rather than demonstrated acute or widespread risks at current environmental levels.

Direct human toxicity data for BrClPy do not yet exist, as it is a newly identified contaminant. Implications are inferred from its aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) activity, its classification as a hetero- halogenated PAH, and the broader toxicology of related halogenated PAHs (HPAHs or XPAHs).

AhR- mediated activity and potential effects

BrClPy activates the AhR with an estimated relative potency of 0.18 compared with benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) in a recombinant yeast assay. This is comparable to dichloropyrene and roughly 4- 5 times higher than dibromopyrene.⁠

AhR is a ligand- activated transcription factor involved in the toxicity of dioxins, certain PCBs, and many PAHs/HPAHs. Chronic activation is associated with:

  • Carcinogenicity (via induction of CYP enzymes, oxidative stress, and related pathways).
  • Endocrine disruption.
  • Immunotoxicity.
  • Developmental and reproductive effects (observed in various model systems for AhR agonists).

BaP itself is an IARC Group 1 human carcinogen, so a compound with measurable relative potency raises concern as a potential contributor to dioxin-like or PAH- like toxicity.

Halogenated PAHs frequently show higher AhR potency than their parent (non-halogenated) counterparts in mammalian and other assays, and they are considered to possess dioxin- like properties.

Exposure context and risk levels

Detected concentrations were low: mean ~0.13 ng/g in industrial soils and ~0.42 ng/g in one harbor sediment sample.

These levels suggest limited direct human exposure via soil contact or dust under typical conditions. Possible routes include:

  • Inhalation of combustion- related particles (HPAHs form during incomplete combustion).
  • Ingestion via contaminated food (bioaccumulation potential in the food chain is a general concern for persistent HPAHs).
  • Dermal contact with soils and sediments in industrial or urban areas.

For the broader class of HPAHs and XPAHs, dietary and indoor air and dust exposure assessments have generally found incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCR) below or near common thresholds (e.g., 10⁻⁶ to 10⁻⁴) for individual compounds or matrices. However, cumulative risks from multiple PAHs and HPAHs can approach or exceed unacceptable levels in some scenarios.

No quantitative human risk assessment specifically for BrClPy is available yet.

Broader implications

  • Monitoring and regulation gaps: Current environmental monitoring often focuses on parent PAHs or single- halogen compounds and may miss mixed-halogen species like BrClPy. The researchers note that better characterization could improve estimates of human exposure and associated effects, potentially informing future regulations.⁠
  • Additive or synergistic effects: BrClPy’s hybrid photolytic and biological behavior (brominated- like environmental persistence and photolysis combined with stronger chlorinated- like AhR activity) means it may contribute to overall toxic load in ways not fully captured by existing toxic equivalency factors (TEQs) based solely on chlorinated or brominated analogs.
  • Research needs: Further studies are required on bioaccumulation, metabolic activation, chronic toxicity, and actual human biomarkers of exposure. Related work on other HPAHs supports structure–activity relationships linking halogenation pattern and position to AhR potency and downstream effects (e.g., enzyme induction, oxidative stress).

In summary, BrClPy is unlikely to pose significant individual health risks at the trace levels reported, but it adds to the cumulative burden of AhR- active environmental contaminants. Its identification highlights the value of expanding monitoring to hetero- halogenated PAHs for more accurate long-term risk assessment, particularly in industrial and urban settings with combustion sources.

Diagram comparing homo-haloginated PAH and hetero-haloginated PAH, highlighting chlorinated and brominated PAH with an emphasis on photostability and biological properties.
1-s2.0-S240566502600137X-ga1.jpg (308×200)
Hetero-halogenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons as environmental contaminants: Occurrences, photostability, and AhR-mediated activity of bromochloropyrene – ScienceDirect

The aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR, also called AHR) is a ligand- activated transcription factor of the basic helix- loop-helix and Per- ARNT-Sim (bHLH- PAS) family.

It functions as an environmental and endogenous sensor. Originally identified as the mediator of toxicity from dioxins (e.g., TCDD), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and related compounds (including halogenated PAHs such as bromochloropyrene), it also responds to dietary, microbial, and metabolic ligands and regulates diverse physiological processes.

Canonical (genomic) pathway

This is the primary and best-characterized mechanism:

  1. Inactive cytoplasmic complex: In the absence of ligand, AhR resides in the cytoplasm as part of a multiprotein complex. This typically includes:
    • Two molecules of heat shock protein 90 (HSP90)
    • Co-chaperone p23 (PTGES3)
    • AhR-interacting protein (AIP/XAP2/ARA9)
    • Often the tyrosine kinase c-Src
      HSP90 stabilizes AhR, prevents degradation, and masks its nuclear localization signal (NLS).⁠
  2. Ligand binding: Agonists (environmental toxins like TCDD, BaP, or BrClPy; endogenous ligands such as FICZ, kynurenine, or microbial metabolites) bind the PAS- B domain. This triggers a conformational change that exposes the NLS and promotes dissociation (or rearrangement) of chaperones.
  3. Nuclear translocation: The ligand- bound AhR moves into the nucleus (sometimes still associated with HSP90 initially).
  4. Heterodimerization: AhR partners with the AhR nuclear translocator (ARNT, also known as HIF- 1β). Structural studies show intimate PAS-B domain interactions between AhR and ARNT in the active complex.⁠
  5. DNA binding and transcription: The AhR– ARNT heterodimer binds xenobiotic and dioxin response elements (XREs and DREs; core motif typically 5′-TNGCGTG- 3′ or similar) in the regulatory regions of target genes. It recruits co- activators and the transcriptional machinery, inducing expression of genes such as:
    • Phase I enzymes: CYP1A1, CYP1A2, CYP1B1
    • Phase II enzymes and other adaptive genes
    • Negative regulators (e.g., AhR repressor/AHRR, TIPARP)
  6. Feedback and termination: Induced CYP enzymes metabolize many ligands (creating a negative feedback loop). AhR itself is subject to ubiquitination and proteasomal degradation. AHRR can compete with AhR for ARNT or DNA binding.⁠

Ligand potency, residence time, and structure influence the strength and duration of the response. Persistent ligands like TCDD produce prolonged activation and more severe toxicity than rapidly metabolized ones like many PAHs.

Non- canonical pathways

AhR signaling is highly context-dependent (cell type, ligand, microenvironment) and extends beyond the classic AhR– ARNT– XRE route:⁠

  • c- Src release and kinase signaling: Ligand binding can free c- Src from the cytoplasmic complex. c- Src then phosphorylates targets such as the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), activating downstream MAPK or other pathways.
  • Crosstalk with other transcription factors: AhR can interact with NF- κB, estrogen receptor (ER), HIF- 1α (competing for ARNT under hypoxia), STATs, or others, leading to trans- repression or alternative gene sets.
  • Non- XRE DNA binding: Partnerships with factors such as KLF6 at non-canonical response elements can drive distinct epigenetic and transcriptional outcomes (e.g., cell- cycle regulation via p21).
  • E3 ubiquitin ligase activity: Ligand- activated AhR can promote ubiquitination and degradation of specific proteins (including itself or other targets).
  • Ligand- independent or stress- induced activation: Mechanical stress, oxidative stress, or other signals can sometimes activate AhR without classical ligands.
  • Cytoplasmic or membrane- proximal effects: Additional non- genomic actions contribute to rapid responses.

Physiological and pathological roles

AhR integrates environmental and endogenous signals. Beyond xenobiotic metabolism and toxicity (carcinogenesis, developmental disruption, immunotoxicity via prolonged activation by pollutants), it regulates:

  • Immune responses (Treg, Th17 balance, barrier integrity, inflammation)
  • Development and tissue homeostasis
  • Host– microbe interactions and diet sensing (tryptophan metabolites)
  • Cancer (context- dependent tumor promotion or suppression)

Therapeutic interest has grown: the AhR agonist tapinarof is approved for psoriasis, and other modulators are in trials for inflammatory diseases, cancer, and infections.⁠

In the context of compounds like bromochloropyrene, AhR activation (measured by reporter assays or CYP induction) serves as a key indicator of potential dioxin- like biological activity and toxicity risk, even though full downstream effects depend on dose, duration, tissue, and co-exposures.

Structural advances continue to clarify ligand recognition (promiscuous but with conserved residues in the PAS- B pocket) and the transition from chaperone- bound to ARNT- bound states, aiding both toxicology and drug design.

Pie charts comparing the composition of surface soil and sediment, highlighting percentages of various compounds including Cl4Py, Br4Py, and others.
Compositions of BrClPy and homo-halogenated Py derivatives in surface soil and sediment samples.
Hetero-halogenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons as environmental contaminants: Occurrences, photostability, and AhR-mediated activity of bromochloropyrene – ScienceDirect

Hetero-halogenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons as environmental contaminants: Occurrences, photostability, and AhR-mediated activity of bromochloropyrene

This is the peer- reviewed paper underlying the Meijo University press release we discussed earlier.

Main findings (from the abstract, press materials, and available excerpts)

Researchers synthesized a reference standard of bromochloropyrene (BrClPy; tentatively a mixture of 1- bromo- 6- chloropyrene and 1- bromo- 8-chloropyrene) for the first time and used it to analyze environmental samples.

  • Occurrence: Detected in 10 of 20 surface soil samples from industrial areas along Tokyo Bay (mean 0.13 ng/g; range <LOD–1.21 ng/g) and in 1 of 3 sediment samples from Nagoya Port (0.42 ng/g mean; one sample 1.27 ng/g). This provides the first evidence of hetero-halogenated (mixed Brand Cl) PAHs in real urban and industrial soils and sediments. Concentrations correlated strongly with brominated pyrenes (1- BrPy and Br₂Py), suggesting formation pathways more similar to bromination processes.
  • Photostability: Under simulated sunlight, BrClPy followed first- order kinetics with a photolysis rate constant of ~0.162 h⁻¹. Photostability was approximately half that of 1- chloropyrene (and similar to 1-bromopyrene and dibromopyrene). The dominant pathway was debromination, producing 1-chloropyrene; dechlorination products were not observed.
  • AhR- mediated activity: In a recombinant yeast assay, BrClPy showed a dose–response relationship (EC₅₀ ≈ 0.43 μM) with a relative potency (REP_BaP) of 0.18 versus benzo[a]pyrene. This was similar to dichloropyrene (REP ≈ 0.20) and 4- 5 times higher than dibromopyrene (REP ≈ 0.04).

Conclusion of the study: BrClPy exhibits hybrid (“emergent”) properties—environmental behavior and photolysis resembling brominated pyrenes, but biological (AhR) activity closer to chlorinated pyrenes. The authors highlight the need for further research on formation, fate, and effects of other hetero-halogenated PAHs to improve monitoring and risk assessment.

Funding came from Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI grants 23K21754 and 25K15471.

The full text is behind ScienceDirect’s access controls for many users (institutional or personal subscription and open- access options may apply).

The key results and conclusions are publicly summarized in the EurekAlert release and research- map excerpts.

Title: Hetero-halogenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons as environmental contaminants: Occurrences, photostability, and AhR-mediated activity of bromochloropyrene

Journal: Emerging Contaminants, Volume 12, Issue 4,

Published: December 2026; available online 22 September 2026

DOI: 10.1016/j.emcon.2026.100758

ScienceDirect PII: S240566502600137X

Provided: Meijo University

Authors: Natsuki Nasuda a, Keerthi S. Guruge b, Takeshi Ohura a

aGraduate School of Agriculture, Meijo University, 1-501 Shiogamaguchi, Nagoya, 468-8502, Japan

bDivision of Hygiene Management Research, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, 305-0856, Japan

Abstract

Homo-halogenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (HPAHs), such as chlorine- or bromine-substituted PAHs, have been ubiquitously distributed in the environment. Conversely, hetero-halogenated PAHs, including chlorine- and bromine-substituted PAHs (halomix PAHs), have not been reported to occur in the environment. This study investigated the environmental occurrence and behavior of bromochloropyrene (BrClPy) as a representative halomix PAH. A BrClPy standard (tentatively a mixture of 1-bromo-6-chloropyrene and 1-bromo-8-chloropyrene) was synthesized for the first time and used for environmental analysis. BrClPy was frequently detected in environmental samples, with mean concentrations of 0.13 ng/g in surface soils from industrial areas and 0.42 ng/g in sediments from industrial harbors. The photostability of BrClPy under simulated sunlight was approximately twofold lower than that of 1-chloropyrene, which was somewhat consistent with the photostability values obtained for 1-bromopyrene and dibromopyrene. The aryl hydrocarbon receptor-mediated activity of BrClPy measured using a recombinant yeast assay showed a potency close to that of dichloropyrene rather than dibromopyrene with an estimated potency of 0.18 relative to benzo[a]pyrene. Consequently, the environmental behavior and biological properties of BrClPy could exhibit the combined characteristics of brominated and chlorinated pyrene.

America closes refineries while the rest of the world races to build them

When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, the world relearned a lesson it keeps forgetting crude oil, by itself, moves nothing. Trucks, tractors, aircraft and ships run on diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and bunker fuel — transportation fuels that exist only after crude oil has passed through a refinery.

A worker in a plaid shirt holding a blue hard hat stands in front of an industrial site with blurred structures in the background.
Woman construction engineer wear safety white hard hat at construction site industry worker. Female engineer worker civil engineering with hard hat safety helmet. Woman construction Engineer concept

From CFACT

BY RON STEIN AND YOSHIHIRO MURINOKA:

When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, the world relearned a lesson it keeps forgetting crude oil, by itself, moves nothing. Trucks, tractors, aircraft and ships run on diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and bunker fuel — transportation fuels that exist only after crude oil has passed through a refinery.

Asia felt the shock first. As crude supplies tightened, Asian refiners cut throughput and some curbed transportation fuel exports to protect their own markets. Even after the April ceasefire, tanker traffic through the strait remained far below pre-war levels.

Seven months later, Gulf crude exports are recovering, though many cargoes now travel longer and costlier routes. Diesel is not. In August, Gulf diesel exports were barely a quarter of pre-war levels, as refineries damaged in the war remained offline. In Russia, Ukrainian drone strikes have forced half of the country’s six largest diesel refineries to cut or halt output, and Moscow has banned diesel exports. In February, the Gulf and Russia together supplied nearly half of the world’s seaborne diesel. A damaged diesel unit cannot be replaced quickly, and the diesel capacity lost to war and refinery closures may take years to replace.

The ripple reached California. The state has spent years making refining harder. Two refineries have recently closed, and more of the remaining seven are expected to follow. The gap is filled by imports, much of it from Asia. California’s policies did not reduce the state’s demand for refined products. They simply moved the source of those products across the Pacific — and into the path of a crisis on the other side of the world.

The step that makes raw crude oil resources usable

Modern life demands thousands of products, from medicines and fertilizers to plastics, lubricants, and transportation fuels. Most begin as crude oil, natural gas, or coal, which must be refined, gasified, or cracked before they can serve as feedstocks for manufacturing. Crude oil alone yields more than 6,000 products.

Natural resources have latent value. Processing is what makes that value usable. A nation that controls this step controls much of its economic future.

The developing world wants its own refineries

It is no surprise, then, that nations across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East want refineries of their own. Rising incomes mean rising transportation fuel demand, and the Hormuz crisis has shown every importer the cost of depending on someone else’s refinery.

Industry databases list roughly 180 new refinery projects announced or planned worldwide for this decade, about 70 of them in Africa. OPEC expects some 5.8 million barrels per day of new refining capacity by 2030, more than 90 percent of it in Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.

Announced is not built

Engineers know that a project announcement is only the beginning. A refinery must pass through planning, environmental assessment, permitting, financing, front-end engineering, construction, and commissioning. Each stage is a filter.

One of us studied China’s coal-to-gas sector during its boom a decade ago, when dozens of synthetic natural gas projects were announced. Years later, only four were in operation.

Refining is proven technology, so attrition will be far lower. But the lesson holds: count what is being built, not what is being announced. Even so, roughly half of expected capacity growth is already operating or under construction — several million barrels per day. The demand for refined crude oil is real and growing worldwide.

Who can build refineries?

The bottleneck is not ambition. It is capability.

The core process technologies — hydrocracking, catalytic cracking, reforming—are licensed by only a handful of companies. Perhaps two or three dozen engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractors worldwide can deliver a large grassroots refinery. Heavy-wall reactors and large compressors come from a limited number of manufacturers, with long delivery times. The same contractors, compressor makers, and commissioning teams are now needed to repair war-damaged refineries in the Gulf — competing directly with new projects in the developing world. And a refinery needs trained operators, maintenance crews and a regulatory system capable of overseeing it safely. The refinery technical talent cannot be imported overnight.

A refinery can be closed in months. Building one takes five to seven years or more.

Who will pay?

A large refinery costs billions of dollars. Nigeria’s 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery cost roughly $20 billion.

At the very moment developing nations need this capital, multilateral lenders and many Western banks have stepped back from fossil fuel projects in the name of climate policy. Chinese contractors, meanwhile, arrive with state-backed financing and a construction team in a single package.

Whatever one thinks of the “debt trap” debate, the structure is clear: those who finance and build a nation’s refineries gain lasting influence over its transportation fuel supply. Western climate finance policies have not reduced developing nations’ need for refined products. They have only changed who builds the refineries.

Pollution moves; it does not disappear

Imported fuels must meet U.S. product specifications, and ships are subject to international limits on fuel sulfur, with stricter rules near North American coasts. But the emissions and safety standards at the refinery itself are set where the refinery stands — often far looser than in California.

Closing a tightly regulated California refinery and importing from one with weaker standards, then shipping the product thousands of miles, does not clean the air. It exports the emissions and adds the voyage.

A view from Asia

For Asia, conflict in the Gulf is not a distant event. It is paid for at the pump in Tokyo, Seoul, Mumbai, and Manila, and in the price of every product that depends on refined crude oil. When the strait closes, Asian refineries run short, and the shortage travels on to California.

What the world needs is not another round of escalation but the restoration of free and stable navigation. America should remember that some 95 percent of the world’s 8 billion people live outside its borders. It can end the policies that are forcing its own refineries to close, and help developing nations build theirs well — with technology, training, and financing.

Japan knows this work. For decades, Japanese engineering firms have built refineries, petrochemical complexes, and gas plants across the Middle East and trained the people who run them.

Crude oil is not useless; it is unfinished. Refining completes it. The nations that understand this are building refineries. The question is whether America, Japan, and other partners will help them do it — or leave the job, and the influence, to others.

This article originally appeared at America Out Loud

NASA’s Decade of Space-Based CO₂ Data Gets a Major Upgrade—Sharpening the View of Earth’s Carbon Cycle

An improved multi- year record of atmospheric CO₂ from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory instruments (OCO- 2 and OCO- 3), based on updated data-processing algorithms.

It primarily improves observational constraints and validation for carbon- cycle and atmospheric inversion models, which in turn support and refine the carbon- cycle components of broader climate- Earth- system models.

It affects climate projections mainly indirectly, by improving constraints on the carbon cycle, the processes that determine how much of emitted CO₂ stays in the atmosphere versus being absorbed by land and oceans.

Infographic of NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2 and OCO-3) tracking global carbon dioxide levels, featuring Earth with CO2 concentration data, orbital tracks, and satellite specifications.
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An improved multi- year record of atmospheric CO₂ from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory instruments (OCO- 2 and OCO- 3), based on updated data-processing algorithms.

The Eos Research Spotlight (published 30 October 2026 by science writer Sarah Stanley) summarizes a paper by Taylor et al. in Earth and Space Science. Every day, OCO- 2 and OCO- 3 collect more than a million observations of sunlight reflecting off Earth’s surface.

An algorithm converts these into estimates of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (specifically, the column- averaged dry- air mole fraction, XCO₂).

OCO-2 has operated as a free- flying satellite since its 2014 launch; OCO- 3 was installed on the International Space Station in 2019. Together they have provided extensive global coverage and supported studies of the carbon cycle’s responses to events such as wildfires, droughts, and El Niño.

Researchers applied version 11 (v11) of the Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space (ACOS) Level 2 full- physics retrieval algorithm.

Improvements include:

  • Better instrument calibration
  • Updated handling of factors such as clouds, aerosols, and how sunlight reflects off the ocean
  • Refined quality filtering and bias correction

The resulting record runs from September 2014 through (at least) August 2026-more than a decade. Compared with earlier algorithm versions, the new data generally agree more closely with highly accurate ground-based measurements from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON).

OCO- 2 and OCO- 3 also show close agreement with each other (mean difference <0.2 ppm in collocated observations), despite different viewing angles, times, and orbital paths.

The upgraded dataset supports month- by- month (rather than only year- by-year) tracking of atmospheric CO₂ buildup. This enables nearer- real- time monitoring of how extreme events affect the carbon cycle.

The publicly available record is positioned as a benchmark for advancing understanding of the global carbon cycle and for assessing the effectiveness of climate policies.

Thomas E. Taylor et al., “The OCO-2 and OCO-3 ACOS Version 11 XCO₂ Data Products: A Benchmark Record for Space- Based Global Carbon Cycle Research,” Earth and Space Science (2026), https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EA005360.[](https://phys.org/news/2026-10-decade-carbon-dioxide-space.html)

The Eos article itself is available at: https://eos.org/research-spotlights/a-decade-of-carbon-dioxide-data-from-space-gets-an-upgrade.

View of Earth from space with a reddish haze, indicating atmospheric distortion or pollution.
This image is a visual representation of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as modeled by NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System, which incorporates data from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 satellite. Credit: Scientific Visualization Studio, NASA

It primarily improves observational constraints and validation for carbon- cycle and atmospheric inversion models, which in turn support and refine the carbon- cycle components of broader climate- Earth- system models.

NASA’s OCO- 2 (since 2014) and OCO- 3 (since 2019) measure the column-averaged dry- air mole fraction of CO₂ (XCO₂). The v11 algorithm updates (better calibration, handling of clouds- aerosols- and ocean- reflectance, quality filtering, and bias correction) produce a more consistent record from September 2014 onward that agrees more closely with ground- based TCCON measurements and shows reduced variance and less temporal divergence relative to atmospheric inversion models used as “truth proxies”. OCO- 2 and OCO- 3 also agree with each other to within a mean difference of <0.2 ppm.

These improvements affect modeling in several concrete ways:

  • Stronger constraints on surface flux inversions
    Atmospheric inversion models (top- down approaches) assimilate XCO₂ data (alongside in- situ measurements) to estimate net CO₂ fluxes between the surface and atmosphere, i.e., the balance of anthropogenic emissions, land sinks, and ocean uptake. The cleaner, more consistent v11 data reduce systematic errors and provide better- characterized uncertainties. This leads to higher-fidelity estimates of regional- to- global fluxes, seasonal- to-interannual variability, and responses to events such as wildfires, droughts, and El Niño. An OCO- 2 v11 Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) is already underway to quantify the impact of the version change on flux estimates.
  • Better evaluation and diagnosis of carbon- cycle processes in Earth- system models
    Climate and Earth- system models include interactive land and ocean carbon components that simulate photosynthesis, respiration, fires, ocean uptake, etc. The multi- year satellite record serves as an independent check on simulated atmospheric CO₂ growth rates, seasonal amplitudes, and spatial patterns. Prior OCO data have already highlighted discrepancies (e.g., many dynamic vegetation models underestimating the seasonal amplitude of the terrestrial carbon cycle). The upgraded record, with lower errors and month- by- month tracking capability, allows finer diagnosis of model strengths/weaknesses, especially for extreme- event responses and carbon- climate feedback.⁠
  • Support for higher- resolution and near- real- time applications
    The ability to monitor atmospheric CO₂ accumulation on monthly rather than only annual timescales helps evaluate how models represent short-term variability and extreme events. Combined OCO- 2 and OCO- 3 sampling also improves coverage in some regions (though OCO- 3’s orbit introduces its own sampling challenges that inversions must handle).
  • Indirect benefits for climate projections and policy assessment
    More accurate flux estimates and carbon- cycle understanding feed into assessments of the remaining carbon budget, the strength of natural sinks, and the effectiveness of mitigation policies. These, in turn, inform the scenarios and feedback parameterizations used in climate projections. The paper positions the v11 record as a “benchmark” for space- based global carbon-cycle research precisely because of these uses.

The data improve constraints and validation, not the underlying model physics directly. Differences between v10 and v11 XCO₂ will propagate into revised flux estimates, so earlier inversion results may need updating. OCO-3’s irregular sampling and limited high-latitude coverage still require careful treatment in inversions. Overall agreement with models and TCCON is improved but not perfect; residual biases remain at the level of tenths of a ppm in some cases.

In short, the upgrade delivers a more reliable observational backbone for carbon -cycle science. This tightens the link between satellite measurements, flux estimates, process understanding, and the carbon- cycle modules embedded in climate models, ultimately supporting more robust assessments of how the Earth system is responding to rising CO₂.

Global map showing locations of OCO-3 SAMs/Targets acquired from July 2019 to December 2025, with a bar chart indicating the number of acquisitions by category.
The OCO‐2 and OCO‐3 ACOS Version 11 XCO<sub>2</sub> Data Products: A Benchmark Record for Space‐Based Global Carbon Cycle Research – Taylor – 2026 – Earth and Space Science – Wiley Online Library

It affects climate projections mainly indirectly, by improving constraints on the carbon cycle, the processes that determine how much of emitted CO₂ stays in the atmosphere versus being absorbed by land and oceans.

This reduces uncertainty in carbon- climate feedback, which are a significant source of spread in future warming estimates for any given emissions pathway.

Climate projections (e.g., those from CMIP Earth – system models used in IPCC assessments) depend on:

  • Emissions scenarios (SSPs or similar).
  • Climate sensitivity.
  • Carbon- cycle feedback: how warming, droughts, fires, and other changes alter natural sinks, potentially leaving more CO₂ in the air and amplifying warming.

The upgraded OCO- 2 and OCO- 3 ACOS v11 XCO₂ record (2014– present, with better calibration, lower systematic errors, closer agreement with ground measurements, and consistency between the two instruments) strengthens the observational foundation for the carbon- cycle side in these ways:

  • Better flux estimates via atmospheric inversions
    The cleaner, longer, and more consistent satellite data are assimilated into inversion models to estimate surface CO₂ fluxes (net land and ocean sinks). Reduced variance relative to prior versions and truth proxies (including inversion models themselves) and the ongoing OCO-2 v11 Model Intercomparison Project should yield more reliable regional- to- global flux estimates and better characterization of interannual variability. These observationally constrained fluxes serve as benchmarks for the carbon- cycle modules in Earth-system models.⁠
  • Improved evaluation of carbon- cycle processes and feedback
    Prior OCO data already showed that many dynamic vegetation models underestimate the seasonal amplitude of the terrestrial carbon cycle compared with satellite- and in- situ- constrained fluxes; models with larger (more realistic) amplitudes also tend to show greater sensitivity to climate change over the historical period. A higher- quality multi- year record allows tighter evaluation of how models represent responses to extremes (El Niño, droughts, wildfires). Recent analyses using OCO- related data have highlighted unusually weak land sinks in some years, testing whether models adequately include rapid carbon-loss processes (e.g., extreme fires, climate- driven mortality). Deficiencies here can make some projections of remaining carbon budgets overly optimistic.⁠
  • Month- by- month monitoring capability
    The improved record supports tracking atmospheric CO₂ accumulation on monthly rather than only annual timescales. This enables nearer- real- time detection of carbon- cycle anomalies linked to extreme events, providing an early-warning capability that can inform updates to near- term projections, carbon budgets, and model benchmarking for decadal predictions.⁠
  • Support for remaining carbon budgets and policy assessment
    More accurate knowledge of current sink strengths and their variability helps refine estimates of how much CO₂ can still be emitted while staying below temperature targets (the remaining carbon budget). It also aids evaluation of whether observed atmospheric growth rates are consistent with reported emissions and policy actions, feeding into updated scenario assessments.

The upgrade does not directly alter emissions scenarios, equilibrium climate sensitivity, or the physical climate components of models. Quantitative impacts on specific projected temperature ranges or carbon budgets from the v11 dataset itself are not yet available (the paper is very recent). Effects will appear gradually as the data are incorporated into inversions, model evaluations, and subsequent assessment cycles.

In summary, the upgraded satellite record provides a stronger observational benchmark for the carbon cycle. This helps reduce (or at least better quantify) a key uncertainty in climate projections, the strength of carbon- climate feedback, and supports more reliable estimates of remaining carbon budgets and the effectiveness of mitigation efforts.

Scatter plot comparing GEOS5 FP-IT prior wind speeds against AMSR2 medium frequency wind speeds.
The OCO‐2 and OCO‐3 ACOS Version 11 XCO<sub>2</sub> Data Products: A Benchmark Record for Space‐Based Global Carbon Cycle Research – Taylor – 2026 – Earth and Space Science – Wiley Online Library

The OCO-2 and OCO-3 ACOS Version 11 XCO2 Data Products: A Benchmark Record for Space-Based Global Carbon Cycle Research

This is the primary research paper behind the Eos spotlight.

NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory- 2 (OCO-2, since September 2014) and OCO-3 (on the ISS since August 2019) measure the column- averaged dry- air mole fraction of CO₂ (XCO₂) from reflected near- infrared sunlight. This paper describes the version 11 (v11) Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space (ACOS) Level 2 full- physics retrieval algorithm, including updates to quality filtering and bias correction.

Key improvements and results:

  • Updates include better instrument calibration, spectroscopy (ABSCO tables), meteorology and prior profiles, ocean surface reflectance parameterization, digital elevation model, and handling of clouds and aerosols.
  • The resulting XCO₂ products show reduced systematic errors and better agreement between actual and theoretical uncertainties (especially for OCO- 3) compared with the previous v10 versions.
  • Validation against the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and atmospheric inversion models (used as truth proxies) shows reduced variance and less temporal divergence.
  • Collocated OCO- 2 and OCO- 3 observations agree to a mean difference of <0.2 ppm across their overlapping period, better than either dataset agrees with the validation sources.
  • The unified, inter- calibrated record spans September 2014– August 2026 (OCO-2) and August 2019 onward (OCO- 3). Data are publicly available from the NASA Earthdata Cloud (including both X2007 and X2019 WMO scales, plus low-latency forward-stream files).

Conclusions from the paper

The lower and better- characterized errors “should enable higher- fidelity carbon cycle science studies, at local, regional, and global scales.” Together with related GOSAT v11 data, these products form a long- term global benchmark record for space- based carbon- cycle research.

The paper itself focuses on the retrieval algorithm, data quality, and validation rather than directly quantifying impacts on climate models or projections. Those applications (flux inversions, carbon- cycle evaluation, remaining carbon budgets, etc.) are enabled by the improved dataset, as discussed in our earlier exchanges.

Full text is available via the Wiley link (institutional access or purchase may be required) or through repositories such as CaltechAUTHORS. Data products can be downloaded from NASA Earthdata.

NASA Earthdata is the primary public portal for accessing the upgraded OCO- 2 and OCO- 3 data products discussed in the Taylor et al. (2026) paper.

Main access point

All Level 2 Lite File (LtCO2) products, forward- stream files, and related documentation for the ACOS Version 11 XCO₂ data are freely available through the NASA Earthdata Cloud / GES DISC.

Key datasets from the paper

InstrumentVersionProductDOI / Notes
OCO- 2v11.2OCO2_L2_Lite_FP_11.2rhttps://doi.org/10.5067/70K2B2W8MNGY
OCO- 2v11.3OCO2_L2_Lite_FP (recommended after 1 Jan 2024)Current production version (includes icing correction)
OCO- 3v11OCO3_L2_Lite_FP_11rhttps://doi.org/10.5067/8U0VGVQC7HZG
  • Data are provided on both the older X2007 and current X2019 WMO CO₂ scales.
  • Low- latency (forward- stream) daily files are also available (typically within ~2 days of observation).
  • Supporting files include L1b, meteorology, preprocessor, and diagnostic products.

How to get the data

  1. Go to earthdata.nasa.gov and create a free Earthdata Login account (required for downloads).
  2. Use Earthdata Search and search for “OCO- 2” or “OCO- 3” and “Lite FP” or the specific version (e.g., “OCO2_L2_Lite_FP_11”).
  3. Or go directly via the GES DISC portal linked from Earthdata.

Useful documentation

  • Data User’s Guide for OCO- 2 (v11.3) and OCO- 3 (v11)
  • Data Release Statements for each version
  • Available on the GES DISC documentation pages or via the links in the Taylor et al. paper.

Journal: Earth and Space Science, Open Access, Volume13, Issue10

DOI: 10.1029/2026ea005360

First published: 22 October 2026

Provided: Eos

Authors: Thomas E. Taylor, Christopher W. O’Dell, Albert Chang, Abhishek Chatterjee, Cecilia Cheng, Lan Dang, Saswati Das, Brendan Fisher, Dejian Fu, Jonathan Hobbs, Nicole Jacobs …

Abstract

NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) and OCO-3 have been observing Earth’s atmosphere from space since September 2014 and August 2019, respectively. The version 11 (v11) Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space (ACOS) Level 2 full physics (L2FP) retrieval algorithm has been used to provide estimates of the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of carbon dioxide (XCO2) from OCO measurements of surface reflected near-infrared solar radiation. In this work, updates to the ACOS v11 retrieval algorithm are discussed, and the quality filtering and bias correction of the XCO2 products are described. XCO2 estimates from OCO-2 and OCO-3 are compared to Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) observations and to atmospheric inversion models, which serve as truth-proxies for XCO2. In addition, a direct comparison of collocated soundings between OCO-2 and OCO-3 is performed. Variations in v11 XCO2 over small areas show improvement in agreement between actual and theoretical uncertainties, suggesting a reduction in systematic errors compared to v10, especially for OCO-3. There is reduced variance in the new v11 XCO2 product relative to truth-proxies, including less divergence in the XCO2 values with time against models. The collocations of XCO2 observations between OCO-2 and OCO-3 indicate an overall mean difference of <0.2 ppm across the overlapping time range. Furthermore, OCO-2 and OCO-3 agree better with each other than they do with the validation sources, suggesting a well conditioned and unified set of XCO2 concentrations that can be used concurrently for carbon cycle studies to provide a benchmark record spanning September 2014 through August 2026.

Energy Crisis Deepens: Natural Gas 10x U.S. Prices Threaten Industry Collapse as Sinn Calls Energiewende “All Humbug”

European (especially German and EU) wholesale natural gas prices have recently been trading at roughly 10- 12 times U.S. levels, creating severe competitive pressure on energy- intensive basic industries.

Hans- Werner Sinn, the former long- time president of the ifo Institute, delivered a sharp critique of Germany’s Energiewende (energy transition) in a lecture on 9 October 2026 at the University of Lucerne (hosted by the Institut für Schweizer Wirtschaftspolitik- IWP).

A somber scene depicting an industrial landscape with factories and smoke stacks, highlighting an energy crisis with text indicating natural gas prices are ten times higher in the U.S. A concerned figure gestures towards declining industry output, while graphs show rising trends and falling production.
AI generated by Grok

European (especially German and EU) wholesale natural gas prices have recently been trading at roughly 10- 12 times U.S. levels, creating severe competitive pressure on energy- intensive basic industries.

As of late October 2026, the Dutch TTF benchmark (Europe’s main wholesale gas price reference) has climbed above €97– €100 and more /MWh (and higher intraday), its highest levels since late 2022.

This follows a sharp rise from earlier 2026 levels around €30- €35/MWh, driven by winter demand concerns, storage dynamics, Middle East tensions affecting energy markets, and Europe’s structural reliance on higher- cost LNG after the loss of most Russian pipeline supply.⁠

In contrast, the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark has been around $2.80–$3.00/MMBtu (roughly equivalent to €7–8/MWh after unit conversion). Converted to comparable energy units, this produces a European premium of about 10–12× (sometimes cited near 11- 13× on peak days).

Why the gap exists and persists

Natural gas markets are regional rather than fully global. U.S. shale production keeps domestic prices low and abundant. Shipping gas to Europe requires liquefaction, tanker transport, and regasification, adding substantial cost, so Europe’s marginal supply is often LNG priced well above Henry Hub.

Pre- 2022, Europe benefited from cheaper Russian pipeline gas; the shift to LNG (and earlier policy choices on domestic production/nuclear) has left a structural premium. Even in quieter periods the ratio has often stayed in the 3–5 times range; recent spikes have pushed it much higher.⁠

German official data (Destatis) reflect rising industrial energy costs: producer prices for energy rose sharply year- on- year in recent months (e.g., energy component +14.9% in one September report), with natural gas distribution prices elevated. This feeds into higher costs for manufacturing.

Impact on basic industry

Energy- intensive sectors, chemicals, fertilizers (ammonia), steel, glass, ceramics, paper, use natural gas both as fuel and feedstock. A 10 times price differential makes European production structurally uncompetitive against U.S. (or other low- cost) rivals.

Consequences already observed or warned about include:

  • Reduced capacity utilization (e.g., German chemical plants operating well below historical norms).
  • Temporary shutdowns, permanent closures, or relocation of production/investment.
  • Erosion of export margins and acceleration of deindustrialization risks in Germany and wider Europe.
  • Higher electricity prices (gas often sets the marginal price), compounding the problem.⁠

Industry voices and analyses (including earlier Draghi competitiveness reports noting 4- 5 times gaps) have long flagged this as a core competitiveness handicap. Current spikes intensify warnings that basic industry faces decline without relief on energy costs, storage security, or alternative supplies.

In short, the headline accurately captures a real and acute market reality as of late October 2026: Europe’s gas costs remain dramatically higher than the U.S., threatening the viability of energy- intensive manufacturing.

Hans- Werner Sinn, the former long- time president of the ifo Institute, delivered a sharp critique of Germany’s Energiewende (energy transition) in a lecture on 9 October 2026 at the University of Lucerne (hosted by the Institut für Schweizer Wirtschaftspolitik- IWP).

Key points from Sinn’s assessment

  • Broken promises: Politicians had claimed the transition would deliver cheap energy, open new export markets for German technology, and establish Germany as a global climate leader. Sinn argues none of these materialized. Instead, electricity costs remain high, industry is under severe pressure, and Germany has not become a model others follow.
  • Technical and economic flaws: Wind and solar are weather- dependent. This requires near-full back up from conventional (often fossil) plants, storage, and expanded grids, creating a costly dual system with high fixed costs. He estimated renewables (especially wind and solar) still account for only a modest share of total final energy consumption (around 9 percentage points from wind and solar in some of his figures, with overall renewables higher but far short of full replacement). Achieving climate neutrality by 2045 would require roughly a tenfold expansion of wind and solar within about two decades, something he views as unrealistic given storage, grid, permitting, and acceptance constraints.⁠
  • Climate targets: Germany’s statutory goals (65% emissions cut by 2030 vs. 1990, 88% by 2040, net- zero by 2045) are, in his view, out of reach under current technology and economics. Past emissions reductions partly reflect industrial decline rather than pure efficiency or clean- energy success.
  • Carbon leakage and unilateral action: Unilateral European cuts in fossil demand simply shift production (and emissions) elsewhere while potentially lowering global fossil prices, encouraging more consumption abroad. He applies similar logic to the combustion- engine phase- out and oil- heating bans: reduced German demand does not eliminate the fuel; it is burned elsewhere, sometimes with higher overall emissions.
  • Broader context: Sinn frames the Energiewende as part of a deeper structural crisis, the most severe since World War II, driven by high energy costs (linked to the nuclear phase, out and loss of cheap Russian gas), bureaucracy, ESG rules, and social policy. He has called for “unwinding 15 years of Merkel policies”, a return to nuclear power, accelerated depreciation to spur investment, longer working lives, workfare over welfare, and a more realistic international climate approach rather than European go-it-alone targets.

Sinn does not deny human- caused climate change. His long- standing critique focuses on the design and feasibility of Germany’s specific policy path: intermittency costs, missing storage at scale, carbon leakage, and the damage to industrial competitiveness. The IWP lecture and subsequent coverage (including podcasts and articles) present this as a comprehensive settling of accounts with the transition’s results versus its original sales pitch.

Despite Warming, Parts of Tibetan Plateau Permafrost Are Gaining Ice

Parts of the Tibetan Plateau’s near-surface permafrost (frozen ground) have been gaining ground ice since around 2000, despite regional warming, due to increased precipitation driven by stronger westerly winds.

The Karakoram anomaly (also called the Karakoram glacier anomaly) refers to the unusual behavior of glaciers in the Karakoram Range, where they have remained roughly stable or shown slight mass gains (and sometimes advances or increased surge activity) over recent decades, while most mountain glaciers worldwide, including those elsewhere in High Mountain Asia (the Himalayas, etc.), have been losing mass and retreating due to climate warming.

A diagram illustrating soil layers in a tundra landscape, showing the active layer, ground ice accumulation, and permafrost layer, with mountainous background and a climate warming signal annotation.
AI generated by Grok

Parts of the Tibetan Plateau’s near- surface permafrost (frozen ground) have been gaining ground ice since around 2000, despite regional warming, due to increased precipitation driven by stronger westerly winds.

This comes from a July 2026 study in Science Advances titled “Westerly induced precipitation increases drives near- surface ground ice gain on the Tibetan Plateau despite warming,” led by Yi Zhao and Dongfeng Li (Peking University) with co- authors including Jan Nitzbon (Alfred Wegener Institute) and others.

Key findings

  • Across roughly 35% of the plateau’s permafrost area (mainly the interior, westerly- influenced regions), near- surface ground ice (frozen water content or FWC in the soil pores) has increased at the base of the active layer (the seasonally thawing top layer, typically ~1.4– 3.2 m depth). The southeastern monsoon- dominated areas show the expected ice loss.⁠
  • Evidence includes:
    • Borehole data from 369 sites (194 pre- 2000, 175 post- 2000): older holes averaged ~16% ice by volume; newer ones ~25%. Paired nearby boreholes drilled years apart consistently showed higher ice in the later samples, concentrated at the active- layer base.
    • A physics- based permafrost model (SHAW) driven by climate data (1979–2018), validated against the boreholes and supported by satellite InSAR ground- deformation data.
    • Model estimates: westerly- fed regions gained ~144 km³ (~35 cubic miles) of ice in the top ~3.2 m between 1979 and 2018; monsoon areas lost less; net plateau- wide gain ~98 km³.

Why this happens despite warming

The Tibetan Plateau is warming roughly twice as fast as the global average, which would normally promote thaw and ice loss. However, strengthened westerlies have increased annual precipitation in the interior by about 60% after 2000 (from ~227.5 mm to ~364.8 mm), bringing extra moisture from the Mediterranean/Iran region.

Extra rain and snowmelt infiltrate the thawed active layer in summer, reach the cold base (near or below 0 °C year- round), and refreeze there. Near- surface ice still melts seasonally. Model experiments isolating variables confirmed precipitation increase as the dominant driver: holding precipitation at pre-2000 levels produced ice loss under observed warming, while holding temperature steady and allowing precipitation to rise produced even faster ice gain.⁠

This is analogous to the “Karakoram anomaly”, where some nearby glaciers have held or gained mass due to increased snowfall from similar circulation changes.

Implications

  • Accumulated ice amplifies seasonal freeze- thaw heave and settlement (InSAR shows higher deformation rates, ~18 mm/year vs. ~14 mm/year elsewhere), which can destabilize landscapes, infrastructure (roads, buildings), and increase erosion or sediment delivery to rivers.⁠
  • The ice gain may be temporary; in some modeled areas it slowed or reversed as thaw deepened. Long- term projections still indicate substantial permafrost degradation later this century.
  • The study highlights that rapid precipitation changes can locally outweigh temperature effects on cryosphere evolution.

Note: The provided attribution (Ahsan Tanveer, Akaash Babar, Peking University) does not match the paper’s authors; Tanveer is a robotics researcher at PKU, so this may refer to a news summary or secondary piece. The primary research is the Science Advances paper by Zhao, Li et al.

Map of the Tibetan region showing monsoon and westerly influence, with labeled pairs indicating study sites, and arrows indicating monsoon wind directions.
Where the plateau’s frozen ground is gaining ice. Green areas on this model-based map show ice increasing between 1979 and 2018; brown areas show it decreasing. The gains cluster in the west, along the path of the westerly winds. Credit: Peking University

The Karakoram anomaly (also called the Karakoram glacier anomaly) refers to the unusual behavior of glaciers in the Karakoram Range, where they have remained roughly stable or shown slight mass gains (and sometimes advances or increased surge activity) over recent decades, while most mountain glaciers worldwide, including those elsewhere in High Mountain Asia (the Himalayas, etc.), have been losing mass and retreating due to climate warming.

Key details

  • Location: The Karakoram is a high mountain range straddling parts of Pakistan, India, China, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan. It contains some of the world’s tallest peaks (including K2) and one of the largest concentrations of glaciers outside the polar regions (thousands of glaciers covering more than 20,000 km²).⁠
  • Observations: Noted from the 1990s onward (formally named by glaciologist Kenneth Hewitt around 2005), remote sensing, geodetic measurements, and field data showed balanced to slightly positive mass budgets, stable or advancing termini in places, increased ice- flow speeds in some cases, and widespread surging. Similar (though weaker or shifting) behavior has been observed in nearby areas such as the Western Kunlun and parts of the Pamir (sometimes called the broader Pamir- Karakoram anomaly).⁠
  • Contrast: Globally, glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica lost substantial mass (on the order of hundreds of kg m⁻² per year on average in recent decades). Most of High Mountain Asia followed this pattern of retreat and mass loss.

Main explanations

The leading drivers involve regional meteorology rather than (or in addition to) local factors like heavy debris cover on glaciers or steep topography and avalanche feeding:

  • Strengthened or shifted westerly winds (mid-latitude circulation) delivering more winter snowfall and moisture from the Mediterranean, Caspian, or North Atlantic regions.
  • Related changes such as increased precipitation intensity, possible summer cooling or reduced melt energy (via cloud cover, albedo, or other factors), and interactions with the region’s extreme topography.

A 2020 review in Nature Geoscience summarized complementary meteorological and process explanations but noted that understanding remains incomplete.

Recent status and outlook

More recent studies (into the 2020s) indicate the anomaly has weakened or shifted. Some analyses show near- equilibrium overall for Karakoram glaciers over ~2000– 2023 but with emerging mass deficits in parts (e.g., recent years or eastern sectors), a westward migration of the stable and gain core, and clearer losses in adjacent ranges like the Pamir. Temperature rise is increasingly dominant, and long- term persistence is considered unlikely under projected continued warming.⁠

This phenomenon was referenced in the recent Tibetan Plateau permafrost study as a parallel example of localized cryospheric ice gain (or stability) driven by precipitation changes outweighing warming effects in specific High Mountain Asia settings.

Graph illustrating ice content variations, showing stages of cold and dry conditions, wetting and warming, and further warming effects on the active layer and permafrost.
How the ice builds up and fades. As rain increases, ice collects at the bottom of the layer that melts each summer (middle); with further warming, that ice melts again (right). Credit: Peking University

Westerly induced precipitation increase drives near-surface ground ice gain on the Tibetan Plateau despite warming

Abstract (key points)

Near- surface ground ice loss is typically a key sign of permafrost degradation under global warming, affecting ground stability and carbon feedback. However, field evidence shows ground ice can locally accumulate.

Using borehole ground- ice observations, a physics- based permafrost model (SHAW), and satellite- based ground deformation (InSAR) data, the authors identify an anomalous increase in ice at the bottom of the active layer across the interior Tibetan Plateau. This affects about 35% of the plateau’s permafrost area, despite ongoing climate warming.

Mechanism: Strengthened mid- latitude westerlies have increased precipitation (by ~60% after 2000 in the affected regions), supplying extra soil moisture that infiltrates the seasonally thawed active layer and refreezes at its cold base.

The freeze- thaw cycles linked to this accumulated ice amplify ground deformation, which can destabilize landscapes and infrastructure.

The authors note this as a divergent cryospheric response (local ice gain) against the global trend of ice loss, paralleling the Karakoram glacier anomaly, and highlight that rapid precipitation increases can locally outweigh temperature effects in driving cryosphere changes on the Tibetan Plateau.

Additional highlights from the paper and coverage

  • Borehole data (369 sites): higher ice content post-2000, especially at 1.4–3.2 m depth.
  • Model results (1979– 2018): net ground- ice gain of ~+98 km³ across the plateau’s permafrost (gains of ~+144 km³ in westerly regions offsetting losses of ~–46.5 km³ in monsoon regions).
  • Scenario experiments confirmed precipitation (wetting) as the dominant driver over warming.
  • Implications for infrastructure stability and regional hydrology.

The full paper (including figures, methods, and supplementary materials) is available at the link you provided.

Journal: Science Advances, (Vol. 12, Issue 30), open- access paper

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aed1105

Provided: Peking University

Published: 23 Jul 2026

Authors: Yi Zhao, Dongfeng Li, Jan Nitzbon, Zhuotong Nan, Yuqi Song, Xie Hu, Youhua Ran, Shang Tian, Rui Deng, Yingzhong Luo, and Yiyi Li

Same Hospital, New Label. Our World in Data Finds a Third of Bilateral Project Aid Is Now “Climate-Related”

On October 26, Our World in Data published a piece by Hannah Ritchie and Pablo Arriagada asking how much development aid is spent on climate change. Ritchie opens by saying she cares a lot about climate and a lot about bed nets, and that the two could collide.

Count only the projects where climate is the main objective and the share falls from 34% to 13%. Then they open up individual projects.

A cartoon depicting a hospital's sign being changed from 'Development Aid Hospital' to 'Climate-Related Hospital - Now With Energy Efficiency!' Two workers are at the scene, one on a ladder removing the old sign, while a man in a suit observes. The surrounding environment includes bicycles and greenery, and various signs emphasizing energy efficiency.
AI generated by Meta

From Watts Up With That?

By Charles Rotter

On October 26, Our World in Data published a piece by Hannah Ritchie and Pablo Arriagada asking how much development aid is spent on climate change. Ritchie opens by saying she cares a lot about climate and a lot about bed nets, and that the two could collide.

With a fixed aid budget, every dollar spent on climate programs is one less dollar for everything else. And with large cuts to foreign aid in the last few years, that budget is shrinking.

How much development aid is spent on climate change? | Our World in Data

The data come from the OECD’s RioMarkers database, which tags bilateral aid projects by whether they target climate mitigation or adaptation. The answer:

Around one-third of this funding — $50 billion — was committed to climate-related projects in 2024.

How much development aid is spent on climate change? | Our World in Data

That is a third of project-specific bilateral aid, almost a quarter of all bilateral aid, and by their estimate about a fifth of all development aid. In 2010 the project share was around 18%. By 2024 it was 34%.

Bjorn Lomborg put the same number on X the same day:

Across the rich world, nearly a quarter of all development aid now goes to climate projects.

The core problem is opportunity cost. Every dollar subsidizing solar panels or carbon accounting is a dollar not spent on schools, maternal health or clean water.

That second paragraph is lifted from a Financial Post op-ed he wrote with Indermit Gill, the former chief economist of the World Bank, which puts the rich-world figure at US$49 billion.

Here is where it gets interesting. Ritchie and Arriagada went looking at what the label covers.

As you can see in the chart, more than half of climate-related funding goes to projects where it’s only a secondary objective. All funding for these projects is counted in its full value, not just the share we might attribute to climate.

How much development aid is spent on climate change? | Our World in Data

Line graph showing foreign aid committed for climate change by DAC members from 2010 to 2024, differentiating between climate as a main objective, climate as a secondary objective, and non-climate related aid.
Chart from Our World in Data.

Count only the projects where climate is the main objective and the share falls from 34% to 13%. Then they open up individual projects. Japan’s $310 million water supply project in drought-prone Samawah, Iraq, is tagged as adaptation with climate as the main objective. France’s $122 million Kakono hydro plant in Tanzania, climate as a primary objective. And this one:

Finally, South Korea provided $163 million for a hospital and training center in Tanzania. Building a hospital and healthcare facilities is a fairly standard development aid project. But because it’s built with energy efficiency and low-carbon design in mind, it’s counted as mitigation as a secondary objective. It doesn’t exist to tackle climate change, but all of this $163 million counts as climate-related aid.

How much development aid is spent on climate change? | Our World in Data

All $163 million of a hospital.

Water for a desert town and power for Tanzania were aid projects long before anyone attached a climate tag. Ritchie says as much: rich countries were funding energy infrastructure in poor ones “long before aid statistics had a climate tag attached.”

So which is it, money diverted or money relabelled? The authors say probably both, and that the data can’t tell them how much of each. The donors have a reason to prefer the second. Climate finance pledges are supposed to be new money. A hospital that counts toward the pledge and the aid budget at the same time lets a government tick both boxes with one cheque.

The OWID data hold a hint. In constant 2024 dollars, bilateral project aid from DAC members that carried no climate tag at all was $97.6 billion in 2010 and $95.8 billion in 2024. Total project aid grew. Everything that grew wore the climate label.

The donors aren’t uniform either.

Line graph showing the share of foreign aid that is climate-related from 2010 to 2024 for various countries, including South Korea, United Kingdom, France, Germany, DAC members, United States, Japan, Netherlands, and Canada.
Chart from Our World in Data.

South Korea tags more than 60% of its bilateral aid as climate-related, Japan between about 50% and 80%, France above 40%. The United States and Canada sit below a fifth. Ritchie asks whether that is a real difference in what they fund or just a difference in how keen they are to tick the box. Given the Tanzanian hospital, I’d bet on the box.

And the money isn’t going mostly to the poorest. OWID notes that climate-related projects dominate aid spending in Brazil and India, both middle-income countries.

Meanwhile, what do the recipients want? Gill and Lomborg:

Tellingly, Africans ranked climate change 31st among 34 priorities in a recent Afrobarometer survey.

We need to focus on the best ways to help the poor | Financial Post

They also cite Copenhagen Consensus estimates that US$2.50 of micronutrient supplements for an expectant mother returns nearly US$100 in long-term benefits, and that tuberculosis and malaria treatment returns more than $45 per dollar. Their suggestion comes from Norway, where an expert group has recommended separating climate finance from the development budget.

Ritchie ends by inviting someone to go through historical aid projects and find out how much of the climate column is new. That would be worth reading.

How many other hospitals are in the $50 billion?

And how much of the pledged climate finance turns out to be the old aid budget with a green sticker on it?

=====

Charts and quotes from Our World in Data, CC BY 4.0.

Faraway Tectonic Forces May Have Accelerated the Gulf of California Rifting

New research from the University of Texas at Austin (Jackson School of Geosciences, UT Institute for Geophysics) and international collaborators indicates that distant tectonic forces in the western Pacific, specifically the formation of a double subduction zone near Japan, likely accelerated the rifting that opened the Gulf of California about 12 million years ago.

Double subduction occurs when two subduction zones operate at the same time and interact with each other, rather than acting independently.

A normal (single) subduction zone forms where two tectonic plates converge and the denser plate dives (subducts) beneath the other into the mantle.

Illustration depicting ocean currents in the Pacific Ocean, with arrows indicating the direction of flow.
AI generated by Grok

New research from the University of Texas at Austin (Jackson School of Geosciences, UT Institute for Geophysics) and international collaborators indicates that distant tectonic forces in the western Pacific, specifically the formation of a double subduction zone near Japan, likely accelerated the rifting that opened the Gulf of California about 12 million years ago.

When the Baja California peninsula separated from mainland Mexico, it created the Gulf of California through continental rifting. The region already had lithospheric weaknesses that promoted opening, but computer models suggest extra extensional stress from far-away plate interactions sped the process by roughly 30- 80 million years.

Key findings

  • Researchers propose that a single subduction zone in the western Pacific was joined by a second one, creating a double subduction system. Most effects were local (near Japan), but simulations showed a clear increase in extensional stress specifically near Baja California, over 9,000 km away, while other regions showed no comparable change.⁠
  • Extra stress can thin the lithosphere and promote faulting, accelerating rifting.
  • Modeling (using the open- source ASPECT software) incorporated current slab geometries, mantle anomalies, and lithospheric structures to compute mantle flow, plate velocities, and stresses. Comparing single- versus double-subduction setups highlighted the distant effect.⁠
  • With two subducting slabs, the trailing plate does not move twice as fast but roughly 1.7 times as fast, according to co- author Thorsten Becker.

The study was published in Science and involved researchers from UT Austin, the Czech Academy of Sciences, Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, and Roma Tre University. Lead numerical modeling was done by Xiang He (UT graduate research assistant). Funding came from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the National Science Foundation, and the Italian Science Fund.

The team notes that improved global plate- interaction models could help interpret other complex settings (e.g., the East African Rift) and longer- term tectonic forcing relevant to earthquake hazards.

The work does not claim the Pacific forces were the sole cause of Gulf formation; regional factors were already at work but indicates they provided significant additional “pull.”

Primary sources: University of Texas Jackson School of Geosciences and UT Institute for Geophysics press releases (October 29, 2026).

A global view of the Earth highlighting the Pacific Ocean with topographical features, featuring two inset maps of Japan and the West Coast of North America.
This illustration shows the location of the double subduction zone off the coast of Japan (left inset) and the Gulf of California (right inset) separated by over 9,000 kilometers. Credit: He et al.

Double subduction occurs when two subduction zones operate at the same time and interact with each other, rather than acting independently.

Basic plate- tectonics background

A normal (single) subduction zone forms where two tectonic plates converge and the denser plate dives (subducts) beneath the other into the mantle. This process is driven mainly by the weight of the sinking slab (slab pull). It creates deep ocean trenches, volcanic arcs, and strong forces that move the surrounding plates.

What makes it “double”

In a double- subduction system, two such zones exist close enough that their effects couple:

  • Two slabs sink into the mantle simultaneously.
  • The slabs can dip in the same direction (“same- dip”) or toward each other (“inward- dipping”), or in more complex geometries.
  • The combined gravitational pull of the two slabs exerts a stronger or differently directed force on the intervening or trailing plates than a single slab would.
  • This interaction can change mantle flow, plate velocities, and the stress field over large distances, sometimes thousands of kilometers away.

Computer models (including the ASPECT simulations used in the recent Gulf of California study) show that two slabs do not simply double the speed of the trailing plate; the acceleration is typically less than additive (in the study, roughly 1.7 times as fast rather than twice as fast).

The specific system linked to the Gulf of California

In the western Pacific near Japan, geological evidence and modeling indicate that a single subduction zone was later joined by a second one, creating a double- subduction configuration.

Most of the local effects (trench motion, earthquakes, volcanism) remained concentrated around Japan. However, the extra slab pulls transmitted stress across the Pacific plate. Near Baja California, more than 9,000 km away, this produced additional extensional (pull- apart) stress.

That distant extra stress is thought to have thinned the lithosphere and helped localize faulting, accelerating the rifting that separated the Baja California peninsula from mainland Mexico and opened the Gulf of California about 12 million years ago. Regional weaknesses already favored rifting; the far- field double- subduction force is estimated to have sped the process by tens of millions of years.

Why it matters

Double subduction demonstrates that plate- boundary forces are not purely local. Forces generated on one side of an ocean basin can influence continental breakup, mountain building, or rift evolution on the opposite side. Similar interactions are being studied in other regions (for example, parts of the western Pacific today and possible ancient systems that affected the South China Sea or other basins). Advanced 3- D geodynamic models are now able to capture these long- range effects more realistically than earlier 2- D approaches.

Western Pacific double subduction drives Gulf of California rifting

The link points to a Science research article (DOI: 10.1126/science.aef5187) published around late October 2026. The full text is behind a paywall (or institutional access), so I could not retrieve the complete paper, figures, or supplementary materials directly.

It is the peer- reviewed study corresponding to the University of Texas at Austin, Jackson School of Geosciences press release discussed previously: faraway (western Pacific) tectonic forces from a double subduction zone accelerated rifting of the Gulf of California.

Summary of the research (from institutional releases and secondary reports)

  • Core claim: Formation of a double subduction system in the western Pacific (near Japan) generated extra extensional stress that propagated across the Pacific plate and accelerated continental rifting near Baja California ~12 million years ago.⁠
  • The Gulf was already opening due to regional lithospheric weaknesses, but the distant double subduction is estimated to have sped the process by roughly 30-80 million years.
  • Methods: 3D physics- based numerical modeling with the open- source code ASPECT. Researchers compared single- vs. double- subduction configurations using data on slab geometries, mantle anomalies, and lithospheric structure to calculate mantle flow, plate velocities, and lithospheric stresses. Stress increases appeared clearly near Baja California (over 9,000 km away) but not in most other regions.⁠
  • With two subducting slabs, the trailing plate moves ~1.7 times as fast (not twice as fast) as with a single slab.
  • Authors, affiliations include researchers from the University of Texas at Austin (including Xiang He and Thorsten Becker), Czech Academy of Sciences, Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, and Roma Tre University. Some secondary reports list Guido M. Gianni et al. as associated authors.⁠

The work highlights how global- scale plate interactions can influence distant continental margins and may have applications to understanding other rifts (e.g., East Africa) and long- term tectonic forcing relevant to hazards.

For the full paper (abstract, methods, results, figures), institutional subscription, access to Science is required, or you can check for any open preprint or author- posted version. The UT Jackson School and UTIG press releases provide the most detailed public summaries currently available.

Journal: Science, Vol 394, Issue 6823, pp. 515-519

DOI: 10.1126/science.aef5187

Provided: University of Texas at Austin

Published: 29 Oct 2026

Authors: Guido M. Gianni, Xiang He, Thorsten W. Becker, and Claudio Faccenna

Corresponding author: Email: gianni@ig.cas.cz

Abstract

Continental rifting reflects the balance between tectonic forces and lithospheric strength, yet the mechanisms of breakup remain debated. Rapid rifting of the Gulf of California oblique rift (GOCOR) ~6 million to 8 million years ago is a key example; it may have resulted from the lithosphere responding to external kinematics or acceleration of long-lived extension. The dynamics of either scenario remain incompletely understood. In this study, we highlight that the rapid rifting of the GOCOR coincides with the initiation of Western Pacific double subduction. Using three-dimensional geodynamic models, we show that such subduction reorganization can transmit extensional stresses of ~5 to 15 megapascals across the Pacific plate, loading the GOCOR and the southern San Andreas fault. Subduction reorganization may represent the missing driver for the initiation of rapid GOCOR rifting within a preconditioned lithosphere and may be an overlooked tectonic force behind other rifting events.

HotAir is Right, the Labour Decision to Open The Jackdaw Gas Field is a WIN For British Energy Security

A recent post by HotAir editor Beege Welborn, “Labour’s Case of Gas Under Attack,” describes the UK government’s decision to open an offshore natural gas field as a “win-win” for both the government and ratepayers. This is true, suppression of the development of their own energy resources has been a serious problem for the UK at large, which has suffered some of the highest electricity costs in the world.

Offshore gas platform in the North Sea with British flag, promoting the Jackdaw Gas Field as beneficial for UK energy security.
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From ClimateRealism

By Linnea Lueken

Silhouette of oil rigs against a vibrant sunset sky.

A recent post by HotAir editor Beege Welborn, “Labour’s Case of Gas Under Attack,” describes the UK government’s decision to open an offshore natural gas field as a “win-win” for both the government and ratepayers. This is true, suppression of the development of their own energy resources has been a serious problem for the UK at large, which has suffered some of the highest electricity costs in the world.

Welborn writes that it’s “insane” that government officials took this long in the first place to make the decision to open the Jackdaw North Sea gas field, because “Jackdaw won’t take years to provide relief from both high prices and shortages of natural gas on demand during high usage periods,” gas is predicted to start being produced from Jackdaw “possibly within weeks.”

Tory leadership points out that, had the decision been made sooner, gas would have been available during this coming winter, when they are now facing shortages.

Any shortages mean that ratepayers will be suffering from even higher electricity prices, in a nation which ranks in the top ten with the highest electricity costs in the world.

Long gone are the days where residents can easily use their home fireplace if heating bills become too high. London makes it illegal to heat your home with wood burning stoves or fireplaces unless you have a particular kind of appliance, or are not in a smoke-control area (which most of London is).

This is especially egregious and dangerous given the fact that deaths due to cold weather outnumber those due to heat by a large margin. In the UK alone, between 2000 and 2019, 44,000 citizens died from cold weather, according to a study in The Lancet.

How many died of heat? Just 8000. Five times more people died of cold than heat in the UK.

But, as Welborn points out, these realities do not “matter one whit to the hard-core Labour climate cultists, the Greens, or any of the radical environmental whacko groups in the UK who have held sway over energy policy for so long.”

Indeed the complaint from other Labour members and the Green Party leadership is that opening Jackdaw is “climate vandalism.” Alleged human-caused global warming is their only concern, to the exclusion of all other issues.

The UK needs natural gas, however, and they will get it any way that they can, and up until now that was largely by importing it from other countries, which certainly could not be “greener” than using nearby resources anyway.

This way, they save in both emissions related to shipping (if you are worried about that at all) and reduce their reliance on sources of energy from foreign countries. As Welborn said, “win-win,” it should be a no-brainer.

Climate Realism has explained in a multitude of posts how and why renewables like wind and solar simply cannot be the majority energy source for a country, and in practice are more expensive than traditional energy. This is true for the United Kingdom as much as it is any other country that has suffered from rising electricity costs as they adopt more non-dispatchable wind and solar. The only reason they are so heavily installed at all is because of generous subsidies and mandates for installation provided to no other electricity generators.

In the UK, for instance, the Renewables Obligations (RO), Feed-in-Tariffs (FiT), and Contract for Difference subsidy schemes support wind and solar by awarding special certificates and payments for power generation, which end up costing the public almost £12 billion per year. As with every grid that ends up being over reliant on intermittent resources, extra gas plants are required to balance the unstable power generation from wind and solar, which further adds to the cost.

On top of all that, gas-fired electricity production is slapped with a carbon tax. Who pays for that? The ratepayer, ultimately.

Welborn, and by extension, HotAir where the post was published, are right to gloat about this victory, even if the UK has a long way to go to reduce energy costs. The climate of the planet is not going to be impacted at all by the UK using more of their own gas instead of getting it from foreign sources, hopefully Labour is finally waking up (at least a little bit) to energy reality.

Permitting reform is the ultimate test of American mineral security

The U.S. has launched a long-overdue effort to reclaim control of the mineral supply chains that underpin our economy and national security. Years of working around the edges of the problem have been replaced by forceful action. The Trump administration has fundamentally changed Washington’s approach to American mining. But whether the promise of this effort becomes a new era of domestic production and mineral security will depend on follow-through. Passing permitting reform is the ultimate test.

A yellow hard hat placed on a weathered surface next to a wrinkled American flag.
Happy Labor Day USA patriotic, yellow hard hat construction helmet USA flag over wooden deck table background.

From CFACT

BY RICH NOLAN:

The U.S. has launched a long-overdue effort to reclaim control of the mineral supply chains that underpin our economy and national security. Years of working around the edges of the problem have been replaced by forceful action. The Trump administration has fundamentally changed Washington’s approach to American mining. But whether the promise of this effort becomes a new era of domestic production and mineral security will depend on follow-through. Passing permitting reform is the ultimate test.

The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act gives Congress the opportunity to deliver. We are undeniably in the minerals age. From semiconductors and batteries to cutting-edge defense systems, minerals — and an increasingly wide array of them — have never been more important to our economic and national security. As demand surges for these irreplaceable materials, our ability to supply them must catch up to their mounting importance.

China understands the stakes. It has spent decades investing in mines and processing facilities, using state support to dominate markets and export controls to squeeze industries essential to our defense and manufacturing base. Breaking that grip requires a sustained commitment to rebuilding American productive capacity. The resources are here. The political will to transform them into secure supply chains has been glaringly missing. That, thanks to the Trump administration, is changing.

The administration has greatly expanded the tools available to counter China’s mineral dominance. Financing, stockpiling and measures to counter predatory market practices are helping level a deeply uneven playing field. Better coordination through the FAST-41 permitting program is also encouraging. But these efforts need durable congressional permitting reforms to deliver the sweeping change American mining requires. Clear rules must endure beyond any single administration or election.

Consider the obstacles we face. A recent study found that bringing a U.S. mine from discovery to production takes an average of 29 years, the second longest timeline in the world. Permitting delays, obstructive litigation and the uncertainty they have created are the tallest barriers along that unnecessarily long road. We cannot rebuild supply chains and counter China’s supply chain weaponization on a timetable that consumes a generation.

This bipartisan permitting deal reflects the urgency of the moment. Notably, it removes duplication and unnecessary delays and tightens review deadlines, improving transparency and clarifying access to lands needed for activities that support mining operations. The agreement also offers much-needed litigation reform. Too often, litigation becomes a tool to delay production for years, even when a challenge has little prospect of succeeding. Clearer limits on legal challenges and greater certainty around issued permits would help ensure that completing the review process actually means something. This is the transparency and certainty mining needs.

Americans understand why action matters. In national polling conducted by The Harris Poll this September, 85% of Americans said increasing domestic mining is important to economic and national security given China’s mineral export restrictions. I can’t recall the last policy issue on which nine in 10 American voters agreed.

Now is the time to recognize the status quo cannot continue. The stakes, of course, reach well beyond mining. It is hard to find a key challenge in America — housing and energy affordability or the eroding state of our infrastructure — that isn’t in some way shaped by the urgent need for reform.

This is the moment to rebuild American mining and break China’s grip on the supply chains so essential to our economic and national security. Passing the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act can turn the promise of America’s vast mineral resources into the productive capacity we so urgently need. This is an opportunity we can’t let slip through our fingers.

This article originally appeared at RealClear Energy

Rich Nolan is president and CEO of the National Mining Association.

Winds Open Antarctic Ice Holes — Then Waves Shatter Them From the Inside Out

A recent Nature Communications paper by Joey J. Voermans (University of Melbourne) and colleagues shows that locally generated waves in Antarctic coastal polynyas can break up surrounding sea ice from the inside outward.

Katabatic winds are downslope winds driven by gravity acting on denser (usually colder) air.

Cold air near the surface becomes denser than the surrounding air. On elevated terrain, such as a plateau, ice sheet, or mountain slope, this dense air flows downhill under gravity. The term comes from the Greek katabasis (“descent” or “going down”).

Aerial view of cracked ice on a frozen body of water, with dark patches of liquid water, and wisps of mist rising above it under a dramatic sky.
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A recent Nature Communications paper by Joey J. Voermans (University of Melbourne) and colleagues shows that locally generated waves in Antarctic coastal polynyas can break up surrounding sea ice from the inside outward.

Coastal polynyas are recurring open- water areas within sea ice that act as “sea- ice factories”, producing large volumes of new ice. Their formation and persistence have long been attributed mainly to strong offshore (katabatic or synoptic) winds that advect ice away from the coast. The role of waves has been largely unexplored due to the scarcity of in situ observations.

Using rare wave- buoy data from the Vincennes Bay Polynya (East Antarctica, near Casey Station), the researchers found that strong winds generate energetic, short- period wind waves within the open water.

These waves grow across the polynya’s fetch and are steep enough to fracture the surrounding ice cover starting at the polynya edge and propagating outward. This “inside- outward” breakup contrasts with the more familiar “outside- inward” process driven by long- period Southern Ocean swells that approach the ice edge from the open ocean.

The buoy records (from deployments in 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025) showed sharp increases in wave energy with relatively short dominant wavelengths once the instruments entered the polynya, consistent with fetch- limited local wind- wave growth rather than distant swell (which is strongly attenuated by intervening pack ice).

Analysis of satellite sea- ice concentration records (2003- 2022) showed that extreme wave- induced breakup events are associated with substantial, persistent reductions in sea- ice concentration lasting at least one week, along with increased transitions to active frazil ice (the loose crystals that form in turbulent, supercooled water).

This creates feedback: waves enlarge and help sustain the open- water area, promoting further heat loss, supercooling, and new ice production.

The results highlight a previously overlooked mechanism in polynya dynamics. As Antarctic coastal polynyas change under a warming climate, wave activity may become increasingly important in shaping sea- ice conditions, dense-water formation, and related processes in the polar ocean.

Paper: Voermans, J. J., et al. (2026). “Inside-outward breakup of sea ice by locally generated waves in the Vincennes Bay Polynya.” Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77979-y.

Satellite image comparing sea ice coverage before and after significant thinning on 6 October 2021 and 7 October 2021, respectively.
MODIS satellite images showing sea- ice conditions in the Vincennes Bay Polynya before and after an extreme wind-wave event. Credit: NASA Worldview

Katabatic winds are downslope winds driven by gravity acting on denser (usually colder) air.

Cold air near the surface becomes denser than the surrounding air. On elevated terrain, such as a plateau, ice sheet, or mountain slope, this dense air flows downhill under gravity. The term comes from the Greek katabasis (“descent” or “going down”).

Key characteristics:

  • They are typically cold and dry.
  • Speeds can range from gentle breezes to gale-force or stronger, especially where the terrain funnels or steepens the flow.
  • They often intensify at night or in winter when radiative cooling is strongest.

Katabatic winds are common in polar regions and high mountain areas:

  • Antarctica: Extremely important. Cold air over the high interior ice sheet drains toward the coast, sometimes reaching very high speeds. These winds help create and maintain coastal polynyas by blowing newly formed sea ice offshore.
  • Greenland: Similar drainage flows off the ice sheet.
  • Other locations: Alpine valleys, the Adriatic coast (bora winds have a katabatic component), and various mountainous regions worldwide.

In short, katabatic winds are gravity- driven downslope flows of dense cold air, and they play a major role in polar climate and sea-ice dynamics.

Diagram illustrating wave dynamics in a coastal polynya, showing strong winds generating waves, wave-induced breakup of ice cover, and effects of wind and wave stresses on ice transport and compaction.
Conceptual diagram of wave-driven breakup and redistribution of sea ice around a coastal polynya. Credit: Joey Voermans

Inside-outward breakup of sea ice by locally generated waves in the Vincennes Bay Polynya

Strong offshore winds (including katabatic winds) in the Vincennes Bay Polynya (East Antarctica) generate energetic local wind waves inside the open water. These waves are steep enough to fracture the surrounding sea ice from the inside outward, the opposite of the usual process in which Southern Ocean swells break ice from the outside inward.

Key evidence

  • Rare in- situ measurements from four drifting wave buoys (deployed near Casey Station in 2021, 2022, 2024 and 2025) recorded a sharp rise in wave energy with short dominant periods once the buoys entered the polynya, consistent with fetch- limited local wind- wave growth rather than distant swell.
  • Southern Ocean swell was strongly attenuated by the intervening pack ice and contributed little to the measured wave energy.
  • Satellite records (2003- 2022) show that extreme wave- breakup events coincide with substantial, persistent drops in sea- ice concentration lasting at least one week, plus increased production of active frazil ice.

Coastal polynyas are major “sea- ice factories” and sites of dense- water formation. The study shows that locally generated waves are an important, previously overlooked feedback that helps reshape and sustain these polynyas. As Antarctic conditions change, wave activity may become increasingly significant.

The paper directly links the strong katabatic and synoptic winds that keep the polynya open to the generation of the waves that then break the surrounding ice.

Journal: Nature Communications, 17, Article number: 11224 (2026)

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77979-y

Published: 29 September 2026, Open access

Authors: Joey J. Voermans,
Qingxiang Liu,
Lang Cao,
Josh Kousal,
Petra Heil,
Alexander D. Fraser,
Clarence O. Collins,
Jean Rabault &
Alexander V. Babanin

Abstract

Coastal polynyas are recurring regions of open water within sea ice that serve as sea-ice factories, producing vast amounts of new ice relative to nearby sea-ice-covered regions. Their formation and persistence are commonly attributed to strong offshore winds, while the influence of waves on polynya dynamics remains largely unexplored. Using rare wave-buoy observations from the Vincennes Bay Polynya, we show that strong winds generate energetic waves capable of breaking surrounding sea ice from the inside-outward, contrasting with outside-inward breakup caused by Southern Ocean swells. Satellite records from 2003–2022 reveal that extreme wave-induced breakup events coincide with substantial reductions in sea-ice concentration that persist for at least one week, accompanied by increased transitions to active frazil ice. These findings demonstrate that locally generated waves impact polynya dynamics and reshape surrounding sea-ice conditions. As Antarctic coastal polynyas evolve under a changing climate, wave activity may become increasingly important in shaping their sea-ice conditions and evolution.