Day: October 6, 2026

El Niño and Atlantic Warming Can Signal Extreme Amazon Heat Up to 7 Months Ahead

El Niño and tropical Atlantic warming can provide early- warning signals for extreme heat in the Amazon, with some precursors detectable up to seven months ahead, according to a new study.

The study characterizes lagged dependence between large- scale climate modes and Amazon temperature and precipitation extremes, then evaluates whether monthly precursor signals enable early warning of compound hot- dry events.

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El Niño and tropical Atlantic warming can provide early- warning signals for extreme heat in the Amazon, with some precursors detectable up to seven months ahead, according to a new study.

Researchers from the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather (led by scientists at UNSW Sydney, with collaborators from the Australian National University, University of Melbourne, and Brazil’s National Institute of Space Research/INPE) published the findings in the journal Earth’s Future.

They analyzed monthly climate data from 1950- 2023 across six climatic sub- regions of the Amazon Basin, examining links between large- scale climate modes and temperature and rainfall extremes (assessed over three- month periods).

Key findings

  • Hot extremes in the Amazon are more likely after unusually warm conditions linked to El Niño (positive ENSO phase in the tropical Pacific) and warming in parts of the tropical Atlantic. These relationships are stronger and more widespread for heat than for cold extremes or rainfall extremes.
  • The clearest long- range signal is for March- May: extreme heat across much of the Amazon is associated with positive climate- mode anomalies observed as much as seven months earlier.
  • Seasonal variations:
    • September- November: Hot extremes primarily linked to earlier tropical North Atlantic warming.
    • December- February: Extreme heat more often tied to recent tropical South Atlantic warming (across much of the basin), with longer- lead ENSO signals in southern and western areas (e.g., Planalto Amazon and Andes- Amazon foothills).

Compound hot- dry events

The team also assessed simultaneous extreme heat and rainfall deficits (compound hot- dry events), which raise wildfire risk, stress ecosystems, threaten health, food and water security, and can reduce the Amazon’s carbon uptake.

Using statistical (copula) methods focused on extremes plus machine learning to test predictability from lagged climate indices (ENSO, tropical North and South Atlantic SSTs, and North Atlantic Oscillation):

  • Useful early- warning potential exists in some seasons and regions, especially northern and lower central Amazon.
  • Predictability is dominated by ENSO, peaking in December- February (notably western Guiana highlands) and March- May (lower central Amazon). Skill is weakest in June- August and parts of the western Amazon.
  • Reliable skill typically requires at least one climate index at short (e.g., 1- month) lead; the multi- month heat precursor signal does not translate into reliable seven- month forecasts of compound events.

Rainfall extremes show weaker, less widespread dependence on these large-scale ocean patterns than temperature does, partly because rainfall is more strongly influenced by regional weather, land- atmosphere feedback, and local conditions.

Context and caveats

El Niño alters tropical circulation in ways that can suppress Amazon rainfall and increase surface heating; tropical Atlantic warming can reinforce dryness and heat by shifting the Intertropical Convergence Zone. These mechanisms are well- known for seasonal means, but the study highlights their imprint on extremes, including surprisingly long lead times for heat in some seasons.

The results indicate potential predictability and identify promising regions and seasons for monitoring Pacific and Atlantic conditions. They do not constitute an operational forecast system.

Translating the findings into practical early- warning tools will require further work with dynamical climate models and additional predictors (e.g., soil moisture, vegetation state).

Lead author Dr Sanaa Hobeichi and co-author Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto (UNSW) noted that machine learning helped isolate the most informative signals while also showing where ocean indices alone are insufficient.

This research is relevant amid rising frequency and intensity of Amazon hot- dry extremes, which are expected to worsen with continued global warming and possible amplification by deforestation.

World map showing climate indices with labeled oceans and regions, including Niño3.4, TNA, and TSA.
Amazon region and climate indices used in this study; (b) climatic sub-regions identified by K-means clustering of annual and seasonal precipitation totals and mean temperatures. Regions from wetter to drier are shown in darker to lighter blue shades. Credit: Earth’s Future (2026). DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008496

Comparison of Hobeichi et al. (2026) with related Amazon climate studies

Hobeichi et al. (2026, Earth’s Future) focuses on lagged statistical dependence (via copulas, emphasizing tail and extreme dependence) between major climate modes (primarily ENSO/Niño3.4, TNA, TSA, and NAO) and Amazon temperature and precipitation extremes, plus machine- learning assessment (Random Forest) of the predictability of compound hot-dry events from those lagged indices.

It divides the basin into six climatic sub-regions, uses 1950- 2023 observational data, and highlights a particularly long- lead (up to 7-month) precursor signal for March- May heat extremes, with more limited and shorter- lead skill for compounds (strongest in northern and lower- central regions in DJF/MAM; weakest in JJA).

This sits within a large body of work on Amazon hydroclimate teleconnections, extremes, and predictability. Below is a structured comparison across key dimensions.

1. Established teleconnections (ENSO and tropical Atlantic)

Classic and recent studies establish the physical basis that Hobeichi et al. build upon:

  • ENSO: El Niño weakens the Walker circulation, promotes subsidence over northern/central Amazonia, suppresses convection/rainfall, and elevates temperatures. Major droughts (e.g., 1926, 1983, 1998, 2015- 16) are strongly linked to El Niño. La Niña tends to produce the opposite. Northern Amazonia is especially sensitive.
  • Tropical Atlantic: Warm TNA (often lagged after El Niño via atmospheric bridge mechanisms) shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone northward, delaying or weakening the wet- season onset (especially March- May in northeast Brazil and southern Amazonia) and reinforcing dryness and heat. The 2005 drought is a classic TNA- dominated example. TSA anomalies and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) also play roles. Southern Amazonia is often more Atlantic-influenced.
  • Combined Pacific- Atlantic effects frequently amplify extremes; interactions with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) appear in some multi-year drought analyses.

How Hobeichi et al. differ and advance: Most prior work uses linear correlations, composites, regressions, or wavelet methods focused on seasonal means or specific historical events. Hobeichi et al. explicitly target extremes via tail dependence (copulas), quantify lag dependence systematically (up to 7 months), and test predictive skill for compounds with ML. They confirm the expected physical mechanisms while showing temperature extremes have stronger and more widespread lagged links than precipitation extremes (which are noisier due to local processes).

2. Focus on extremes and compound hot-dry events

  • Multiple studies documents increasing frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent of Amazon heatwaves, droughts, and compounds (especially since ~2000 or 2010). Extreme heat almost always co- occurs with dryness in the most severe cases. The 2023- 2024 period stands out as record-breaking in compound dry-hot conditions, low soil moisture, and high vapor-pressure deficit, affecting large fractions of the basin.
  • Heatwaves are amplified under dry conditions via land- atmosphere feedback (reduced evaporative cooling, increased sensible heat). Synoptic patterns (e.g., enhanced South Atlantic subtropical high, reduced moisture influx) contribute.
  • Projections (CMIP5 and CMIP6) robustly show rising compound hot- dry risk under warming, with Amazonia as a hotspot; deforestation can further intensify them via feedback.

Hobeichi contribution: Moves from documentation and attribution of past events and future projections toward statistical early- warning potential using remote climate modes alone. It shows compounds are harder to predict than heat alone, and skill is highly region- and season- dependent, consistent with known spatial heterogeneity (northern vs. southern Amazonia).

3. Predictability and early- warning efforts

  • Some prior work has proposed Atlantic SST- based early- warning indicators for central Amazon droughts, with claimed lead times of many months (up to ~18 months in network- based approaches focused on specific ocean regions).
  • Seasonal forecasting systems and empirical methods already use ENSO and Atlantic indices operationally, but skill for extremes (especially compounds) is limited and variable.
  • Multi- mode analyses (ENSO, IOD and TNA) highlight coupled tropical interactions for multi- year droughts and note forecasting potential by monitoring oceanic indices.

Hobeichi contribution: Provides a more rigorous, basin-wide, lag- explicit quantification using modern tools (copulas for dependence and Random Forest for predictability).

It tempers expectations: the impressive 7- month heat signal does not equate to reliable long- lead compound forecasts; useful skill usually requires shorter leads (often concurrent or 1-month) and is strongest in specific region- season windows. NAO contributes little.

4. Methodological and regional novelty

  • Sub- regional analysis is common (northern vs. southern, or specific sub-basins), but Hobeichi’s k-means clustering into six climatologically coherent regions is systematic.
  • Lead author Hobeichi has prior expertise in ML applications to drought metrics, extremes predictability, and climate- mode explanations of precipitation variability (mostly Australian- focused previously), so the paper extends that toolkit to the Amazon.
  • Related recent work explores two- way interactions (e.g., Amazon drought itself amplifying subsequent TNA warming via land- atmosphere- ocean feedback) and emerging “hyper tropical” conditions under continued warming.

Summary of positioning

Hobeichi et al. (2026) is evolutionary rather than revolutionary: it confirms well- established ENSO and tropical Atlantic teleconnections while advancing the quantitative characterization of extreme (especially heat) dependence at long lags and the practical limits of using those modes for compound- event early warning.

Strengths relative to much of the literature include the explicit extremes focus (copulas), ML predictability testing, long consistent observational record, and clear regional and seasonal differentiation. Limitations shared with many observational studies include reliance on large- scale indices alone (local land- surface and atmospheric processes matter, especially for rainfall and western Amazonia) and the challenge of translating statistical relationships into operational systems.

It complements event- based analyses (e.g., 2023- 24 compounds), process and mechanistic studies, and climate- projection work by highlighting where monitoring Pacific and Atlantic conditions offers the most actionable lead time for heat risk, and where additional predictors will be essential for compounds.

Climate-Mode Precursors and the Predictability of Amazon Hot and Dry Extremes

Authors and affiliations

Lead and corresponding author: Sanaa Hobeichi (ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century; Climate Change Research Centre & UNSW AI Institute, University of New South Wales).
Co-authors include Lincoln Muniz Alves (INPE, Brazil), Andréa S. Taschetto (UNSW/ARC Centre), Wil Laura (ANU), Nayan Talmale (University of Melbourne), and Lisa V. Alexander (UNSW). First published online 27 August 2026.

Abstract and Key findings

The study characterizes lagged dependence between large- scale climate modes and Amazon temperature and precipitation extremes, then evaluates whether monthly precursor signals enable early warning of compound hot- dry events.

  • Methods: Copula- based analysis of tail dependence (focusing on extremes rather than average relationships) between climate indices and local anomalies at multiple lags. Machine- learning models (Random Forest classification) then test predictability of binary compound hot- dry months from lagged indices.
  • Climate drivers examined: Niño3.4 (ENSO), Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), Tropical South Atlantic (TSA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
  • Data: CRU TS v4.08 monthly temperature and precipitation (1950- 2023) over the Amazon, divided into six climatic sub- regions via k -means clustering on seasonal precipitation and temperature climatologies. Indices from NOAA sources.

Main results:

  • Hot extremes are more likely following positive ENSO phases and tropical Atlantic warming; these relationships are stronger and more widespread than for cold extremes.
  • Strongest and most persistent signal: March- May (MAM) temperatures. Hot extremes are more likely across much of the Amazon after positive climate -mode anomalies at lags of up to 7 months → substantial long- lead early- warning potential for heat.
  • September- November: Hot extremes mainly associated with prior TNA warming.
  • December- February: Short- lag TSA warming across the basin; longer ENSO lags in the Planalto Amazon and Andes and Amazon foothills.
  • Precipitation extremes show limited tail dependence with the climate indices. NAO generally shows weak dependence with individual hot or dry extremes.
  • Compound hot- dry predictability: Dominated by ENSO. Highest skill in DJF (especially western Guiana highlands and northern regions) and MAM (lower central Amazon). Lowest skill in June-August. Highest success rates in specific region- season pairs (e.g., ~81% in one central region for MAM, ~79% in a northern region for DJF). Reliable predictions typically require at least one climate index at ~1-month lead.

Plain- language summary (from the paper)

Unusually high or low phases of major climate modes (especially ENSO and tropical Atlantic variability) months in advance are linked more strongly to extreme heat than to rainfall deficits. The clearest long- lead heat signal is in March- May (up to 7 months). Forecast skill for simultaneous heat and dryness peaks in DJF and MAM and is generally strongest when ENSO information is included, but useful forecasts usually need relatively short lead times.

Context and aims

Hot-dry compound events threaten Amazon ecosystems, carbon uptake, fire risk, health, and food and water security. They have become more frequent and intense and are projected to worsen with continued warming (and possible amplification by deforestation). While mean- state teleconnections of ENSO and Atlantic SSTs with Amazon climate are well known, the paper focuses specifically on extremes, lagged relationships, and quantitative early- warning potential using modern statistical and ML tools.

The paper emphasizes that the 7- month signal is a long- range precursor for heat extremes, not evidence of reliable multi- month forecasts of compound events. Further work with dynamical models and additional local predictors (soil moisture, vegetation, etc.) would be needed for operational systems.

Journal information: Earth’s Future (2026)

First published: 27 August 2026

DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008496

Provided: ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather

Authors: Sanaa Hobeichi, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Andréa S. Taschetto, Wil Laura, Nayan Talmale, Lisa V. Alexander

Abstract

We characterize the dependence between lagged large-scale climate modes and Amazon climate extremes and assess whether monthly precursor signals enable early warning of compound hot-dry events. A copula-based framework analyses tail dependence between major climate drivers and precipitation and temperature anomalies at multiple lags, identifying where and how far in advance extreme phases of modes of variability likely precede local extremes. Machine learning models then evaluate the predictability of compound hot-dry events from lagged climate indices, determining which modes and lead times yield skillful forecasts. Copula modeling shows hot extremes are more likely following positive phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical Atlantic variability, with relationships more prevalent than for cold extremes. The most persistent signal occurs for March–May temperatures, when hot extremes are more likely across the Amazon following positive climate-mode anomalies at lags up to 7 months, indicating substantial long-lead early-warning potential. In September–November, hot extremes are associated with prior tropical North Atlantic warming. During December–February, they occur at short lags with tropical South Atlantic warming across the basin, and at longer ENSO lags in the Planalto Amazon and Andes–Amazon foothills. In contrast, precipitation shows limited tail-dependence with climate indices, and North Atlantic variability exhibits weak dependence with individual hot and dry extremes. Predictability of compound hot-dry events is dominated by ENSO and peaks in December–February, especially in the western Guiana highlands, and in March–May in the lower central Amazon, with lowest skill in June–August. Reliable predictions typically require at least one climate index at 1-month lead.

Climate Change Is Quietly Rewiring North Atlantic Weather Patterns—and Tilting the NAO Toward Positive

The study uses 100 members of the CESM2 Large Ensemble (under the high- emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario) for winter (DJF) 500 hPa stream function over the North Atlantic (1850- 2100).

The authors apply Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) between 500 hPa stream function and surface temperature to capture coupled variability (preferred over standard EOFs for isolating the forced signal). Regime identification uses clustering on the leading principal components. The large ensemble allows robust separation of forced change from internal variability and detection of multimodality that single realizations often miss.

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The study uses 100 members of the CESM2 Large Ensemble (under the high- emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario) for winter (DJF) 500 hPa stream function over the North Atlantic (1850- 2100).

It separates the full flow field (forced response and internal variability) from pure internal variability (by subtracting the ensemble mean).

  • A changepoint analysis detects a clear anthropogenic imprint on mid- tropospheric circulation around 1995. Analyses therefore compare pre-1995 vs. post-1995 periods.
  • With the forced response included, the number of atmospheric regime states stays the same (four regimes both before and after 1995). However, their spatial patterns reorganise substantially: high- and low- pressure centres shift northward, some circulations intensify, and the overall phase- space distribution shifts.
  • Internal variability alone shows a reduction in the number of regime states after 1995, with one regime becoming more persistent, suggesting anthropogenic warming suppresses some natural variability.
  • Future projections show a shift toward more frequent positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phases through much of the 21st century, accompanied by more low- amplitude negative NAO phases late in the century. Overall NAO variability declines markedly, and mid- tropospheric westerlies are altered (strengthened in positive-NAO regimes, weakened in negative ones).

Methods highlights

The authors apply Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) between 500 hPa stream function and surface temperature to capture coupled variability (preferred over standard EOFs for isolating the forced signal). Regime identification uses clustering on the leading principal components. The large ensemble allows robust separation of forced change from internal variability and detection of multimodality that single realizations often miss.

Broader context and implications

Atmospheric regimes (quasi- stationary, recurring circulation patterns) strongly influence North Atlantic weather, including European winter storms, temperature extremes, precipitation, and the NAO itself. The results indicate that climate change does not simply make existing patterns more frequent or “warmer”; it reorganises their spatial structure and damps natural variability. This has implications for seasonal prediction, climate risk assessment, wind energy, ecosystems, and adaptation planning in Europe, eastern North America, and the Arctic.

Infographic comparing streamfunction and surface temperature patterns pre-1995 and post-1995, highlighting northward displacement and anthropogenic warming.
Figure 1. The northward displacement of the anticyclonic circulation (low-pressure) in the post-1995 period with anthropogenic warming. Credit: Susmit Subhransu Satpathy

The paper is directly and extensively about the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while its connection to Arctic amplification is more indirect and conceptual rather than explicit.

Strong, direct relationship to the NAO

The NAO is a central focus of the study. The authors treat it both as a key component of North Atlantic atmospheric regimes and as a distinct mode whose behaviour changes under anthropogenic warming.

Key NAO- related findings include:

  • Atmospheric regimes over the North Atlantic include NAO- like patterns (zonal/positive and blocked/negative phases). The post-1995 period shows a more prominent NAO- positive-like structure in the ensemble- mean circulation (strengthened Icelandic Low and Azores High).
  • Under the forced response (full flow field), the number of regimes stays constant (four), but their spatial organisation shifts northward. Extreme NAO- negative- like regimes become somewhat more frequent in the later period.
  • Future projections show a shift toward more frequent positive NAO phases through much of the 21st century. This is accompanied by an increase in low-amplitude negative NAO events late in the century, a marked decline in overall NAO variability, and changes in mid- tropospheric westerlies (strengthened under positive NAO regimes, weakened under negative ones).
  • The forced response of the NAO index itself exhibits a statistically significant positive trend that partially reverses near the end of the century.
  • The NAO is linked to regime transitions and persistence: inter- regime connectivity weakens under warming while certain regimes (including those related to NAO) become more persistent.
  • The model (CESM2-LE) reproduces observed NAO characteristics reasonably well, with the observational index falling within the ensemble spread.

In short, the paper argues that anthropogenic warming reorganises the preferred circulation states (regimes) of which the NAO is a dominant expression, rather than simply changing the frequency of the classical NAO modes in isolation.

Relationship to Arctic amplification

The paper does not explicitly discuss or quantify “Arctic amplification” (the disproportionately rapid warming of the Arctic relative to the global mean). There is no direct analysis of polar temperature gradients, Arctic sea- ice loss as a driver, or the classic “Arctic amplification → weaker meridional gradient → altered jet/NAO” pathway.

However, several findings sit in the broader scientific context where Arctic amplification is often invoked:

  • The study notes that NAO phases influence Arctic sea-ice variability (and vice versa in coupled systems).
  • Northward displacement of cyclonic and anticyclonic centres under warming is consistent with the poleward shifts of the jet stream and storm tracks that many studies attribute partly to tropical upper-tropospheric warming competing with (or sometimes opposing) Arctic amplification effects.
  • The reorganisation of mid-tropospheric circulation and the damping of internal variability could be influenced by the changing high- latitude temperature structure, although the authors attribute the detected changes primarily to the overall anthropogenic forced response (greenhouse gases, aerosols, etc.) rather than isolating Arctic processes.
  • Surface temperature patterns associated with the regimes show features such as the North Atlantic Warming Hole, which interacts with high- latitude dynamics.

Arctic amplification is a well- known mechanism that can weaken the meridional temperature gradient, potentially favouring a more negative NAO or weakened westerlies in some seasons.

The paper’s finding of a shift toward more positive NAO phases (with reduced variability) is therefore interesting in that context, it aligns more with the competing influence of tropical amplification and upper- level warming that tends to strengthen and poleward- shift the jet, rather than a pure Arctic- amplification- driven response. The large- ensemble approach allows the authors to isolate the forced signal without needing to attribute it specifically to Arctic versus tropical drivers.

The paper is fundamentally a study of how anthropogenic warming reorganises North Atlantic regimes and the NAO. Any link to Arctic amplification is contextual and mechanistic (via shared effects on the jet, gradients, and sea ice) rather than a direct focus of the analysis.

If you want, I can pull more specific NAO figures and results or discuss how these findings compare with other literature on Arctic amplification and the NAO.

Graph showing the average number of months per realization from 1850 to 2100, divided into sections for NAO +ve and NAO -ve indices, illustrating trends in low amplitude NAO -ve events.
Figure 2 illustrates the increasing tendency towards NAO-positive phases, accompanied by a decrease in the low-amplitude NAO-negative phases after the year 2081, following anthropogenic warming. Credit: Susmit Subhransu Satpathy

Anthropogenic climate change leads to a pronounced reorganisation of wintertime North Atlantic atmospheric circulation regimes

Abstract

Regional climate variability manifests through distinct atmospheric regimes influencing weather, climate, and predictability. Yet their response to global warming remains unresolved. Using a hundred realisations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we examine shifts in wintertime North Atlantic atmospheric regimes and the North Atlantic Oscillation before and after 1995, highlighting the detectable influence of anthropogenic warming on atmospheric circulation. The large- ensemble framework isolates internal variability by removing the ensemble mean. Under anthropogenic warming, the number of regime states associated with the forced response remains constant, although their spatial circulation patterns undergo substantial reorganisation. In contrast, internal variability alone exhibits a reduction in the number of regime states. Future projections indicate a shift toward more frequent positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, accompanied by low-amplitude negative phases late in the century, alongside a marked decline in its variability and altered mid-tropospheric westerlies.

Core findings (from Results)

  • Changepoint detection: The earliest clear anthropogenic signal in mid- tropospheric (500 hPa streamfunction) circulation appears around 1995 (in PC2 of the coupled SVD analysis). Analyses therefore contrast Pre-1995 (1850–1995) vs. post-1995 (1996- 2100).
  • Full flow field (FF = forced and internal variability): Number of wintertime atmospheric regimes remains constant at four. Spatial patterns reorganise (northward shifts of cyclonic and anticyclonic centres; changes in intensity and phase- space distribution). Regime- to- regime transition probabilities weaken under warming, while persistence of certain regimes increases.
  • Internal variability only (IV): Number of regimes decreases after 1995; one dominant (weaker-circulation) regime becomes more persistent and attracts more transitions.
  • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Forced response shows a modest but significant trend toward more positive phases through much of the 21st century, with a partial late- century reversal linked to increased low-amplitude negative events. Overall NAO variability declines. Mid- tropospheric westerlies strengthen in positive-NAO regimes and weaken in negative ones. CESM2-LE reproduces observed NAO characteristics reasonably well (within ensemble spread).

Methods snapshot

  • Data: CESM2 Large Ensemble (100 members), monthly 500 hPa stream function and surface temperature (DJF), 1850- 2100, SSP3-7.0 scenario.
  • Separation of forced response (ensemble mean) vs. internal variability.
  • Coupled Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) between streamfunction and surface temperature (preferred over standard EOFs).
  • Regime identification via clustering on leading PCs; Markov transition matrices for inter- regime dynamics.
  • NAO index: standardised first PC of sea- level pressure.

The paper is open access. Code for figure reproduction is available on Zenodo, and the lead author has a “Behind the Paper” post on Springer Nature Communities.

Paper: Anthropogenic climate change leads to a pronounced reorganisation of wintertime North Atlantic atmospheric circulation regimes

Journal information: Communications Earth & Environment, volume 7, Article number: 155 (2026)

Published: 20 January 2026 (Version of record: 12 February 2026)

DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03180-0

Open access (PDF available on the page).

Authors: Susmit Subhransu Satpathy,
Christian L. E. Franzke,
Vincent Verjans &
Terence O’Kane 

US Unshackles Its Power Plants; Poor Nations Must Do the Same

When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officially tore up its greenhouse gas limits, the agency put reliable energy ahead of climate ideology.
Governments around the globe surrendered their energy choices to a system built on United Nations climate negotiations, prerequisites for financing arrangements and foreign aid, and net zero targets. International agencies with globalist yearnings decided which power plants could be built, which fuels could be used, and which technologies received political favor.

Governments around the globe surrendered their energy choices to a system built on United Nations climate negotiations, prerequisites for financing arrangements and foreign aid, and net zero targets. International agencies with globalist yearnings decided which power plants could be built, which fuels could be used, and which technologies received political favor.

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From CO2 Coalition

By Vijay Jayaraj

The United States has unshackled power plants from politically driven emission regulations that held them hostage for decades, eventually forcing many facilities to close. When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officially tore up its greenhouse gas limits, the agency put reliable energy ahead of climate ideology.

So far, the silence from the capitals of developing nations is deafening. National leaders across Africa, Asia, and Latin America sit mute in the face of this massive shift to rational energy policy.

For years, these leaders blamed Western pressure for their refusal to build infrastructure for the use of coal and natural gas. Now, the largest economy on Earth has abandoned destructive emission restrictions, yet the economies that most need such relief continue to bow before the global climate cartel to the detriment of their own citizens.

The history of human progress is inseparable from abundant energy. Coal powered industrialization. Oil enabled mass transport, modern agriculture, and global trade. Natural gas brought dependable heat and electricity to households and factories. These fossil fuels increased production, reduced physical hardship, improved public health, and made once-exclusive technologies available to ordinary people.

Between 1990 and 2016, the share of humanity with electricity climbed from 71% to 87%, and South Asia doubled to 86% the number of people having this service, which much of the West has long taken for granted. Over a 20-year period in India, an index that measures monetary poverty and access to education and basic services collapsed from 55% of the population suffering such deprivation to 16%, while access to clean cooking fuel rose from 22% to 68%.

Disrupting this remarkable progress driven by hydrocarbons was not a natural calamity or a resource crunch, but the political ideology of a fabricated climate crisis.

Governments around the globe surrendered their energy choices to a system built on United Nations climate negotiations, prerequisites for financing arrangements and foreign aid, and net zero targets. International agencies with globalist yearnings decided which power plants could be built, which fuels could be used, and which technologies received political favor.

Getting Rid of Unscientific Policy Barriers

The EPA of the current administration understands how the climate regime has undermined American energy security. It now says that the U.S. Clean Air Act cannot authorize power plant regulation based on climate change. The larger economic point needs no courtroom: When a rule makes dependable generation harder to finance, build, or operate, it raises the price of every activity that depends on electricity.

The arithmetic is simple: Emissions are a global quantity, a single nation’s power sector is a rounding error within it, and the supposed health benefits of shuttering that sector are too remote and too speculative to justify the certain, measurable damage of expensive electricity.

That reasoning now resides in an American federal rulemaking. It has been the central point of climate realists for years, and although dismissed by alarmists as denial, it has arrived at the policy table.

This is why the phrase “energy transition” sounds detached from reality in the developing world.

A transition from what to what?

A villager who burns wood is not transitioning away from a modern grid. A factory owner facing daily blackouts is not choosing between two equally dependable technologies. A hospital running on diesel during outages is not making a lifestyle statement. These people need more power, delivered at a price they can pay, from every source capable of producing it.

The American energy reset is an exit from climate imperialism and an entrée to greater freedom to pursue prosperity. After appeasing ministers of international climate commitments for years, leaders of developing countries who do not seize this opportunity betray their people and invite political backlash.

Originally published at American Greatness, October 1, 2026.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India. He served as a research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia, Canada.

Major Blind Spots Persist in Climate Impact Evidence for Mediterranean Plant Communities

A systematic review by researchers from the University of Cape Town and the South African Environmental Observation Network finds major gaps and geographic biases in observational evidence of how plant communities in Mediterranean- type ecosystems (MTEs) are responding to climate change.

The Mediterranean Basin is by far the best- studied of the five Mediterranean- type ecosystems (MTEs) in the review, accounting for the large majority of the 128 observational studies (approximately 88).

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A systematic review by researchers from the University of Cape Town and the South African Environmental Observation Network finds major gaps and geographic biases in observational evidence of how plant communities in Mediterranean- type ecosystems (MTEs) are responding to climate change.

MTEs occur in five regions: the Mediterranean Basin, California, central Chile, southwestern Australia, and South Africa’s Cape (including the Cape Floristic Region).

These areas share a climate of hot, dry summers and cooler, wetter winters and are global biodiversity hotspots with high endemism. They face strong climate pressures, including extreme droughts reported by the IPCC across all five regions (notably severe in South Africa and California).

Much existing knowledge relies on models and experiments rather than direct field observations of natural plant communities.

Main findings

  • Researchers screened databases and identified only 128 qualifying observational studies. Just 9% were from the Global South, and southern-hemisphere studies overall made up only about 17%.
  • Geographic bias is pronounced: Mediterranean Basin (88 studies), California (18), southwestern Australia (10), central Chile (8), and South Africa’s Cape (only 4).
  • Only 11 of the 128 studies appeared in IPCC assessment reports; in the latest IPCC land-ecosystems chapter, less than 3% of cited literature concerned these regions.
  • Most frequently reported disturbances: climate variability, drought (dominant everywhere, 67-100% of reports by region), wildfire, frost, and pathogens/insect infestations. Wildfire was noted in most regions except Chile (despite frequent fires there); pathogen and insect studies were limited to the Northern Hemisphere; frost mainly in southwestern Australia.
  • Studies mostly focused on vegetation condition and growth; far fewer examined plant diversity, phenology, or physiology. Trees and shrubs were overrepresented relative to grasses and wildflowers (which contribute heavily to diversity and can influence fire). Some response types were missing entirely in particular regions.
  • Confidence was relatively high for links between climate- related disturbances and vegetation responses, but lower for attributing observed biological changes specifically to climate change (versus other drivers such as fire, land use, herbivory, invasive species, or natural variability). Few studies used modern causal-inference methods; only four included causal diagrams, and none scored highly on this.

Implications and recommendations

The geographic and topical imbalances make it hard to distinguish real ecological differences between regions from artifacts of research effort. Findings from well- studied areas (e.g., California or the Mediterranean Basin) may not apply to understudied ones like the Cape Floristic Region.

The authors call for coordinated research across all five MTEs that combines long- term monitoring, reanalysis of existing and historical datasets, remote sensing, experiments, and stronger causal- inference approaches. This would improve understanding of resilience mechanisms and better support conservation and adaptation in these biodiversity hotspots.

In short, while models and experiments provide projections, direct observational evidence of climate- driven changes in MTE plant communities remains sparse, unevenly distributed, and often insufficient to firmly attribute causes, creating significant blind spots for science and management.

World map highlighting regions affected by climate variability, drought, wildfire, frost, and pathogens/insects, with detailed observations and publications counts for California, Central Chile, Cape Floristic Region, Mediterranean Basin, and SW Australia.
Global occurrence of Mediterranean-type ecosystems, showing frequencies of reported disturbances (no. observations = 154) and the total number of publications per region included in the review (no. publications = 128). Credit: Ecological Solutions and Evidence (2026). DOI: 10.1002/2688-8319.70304

The Mediterranean Basin is by far the best- studied of the five Mediterranean- type ecosystems (MTEs) in the review, accounting for the large majority of the 128 observational studies (approximately 88).

This gives it a relatively stronger evidence base than the other regions (especially the Global South ones), but the paper still identifies important implications, limitations, and opportunities specific to it.

Stronger observational evidence base, but incomplete

  • Drought, climate variability, wildfire, and (to a lesser extent) pathogens and insect infestations are well- documented disturbances affecting plant communities.
  • Most studies focus on vegetation condition and growth. Responses related to diversity, phenology, and physiology are less comprehensively covered than condition and growth (though better represented here than in some other MTEs, where certain categories are entirely absent).
  • Confidence scores for studies from the Mediterranean Basin (and California) span a wide range but often include high values for clear prior expectations and hypotheses, data quality, and statistical analyses. Scores tend to be higher for understanding relationships between disturbances and responses than for rigorously detecting climate -change-driven biological change itself.

Key limitations and risks of over- generalisation

Even with the largest number of studies, the evidence is not comprehensive enough for full causal attribution in many cases. Few studies overall (and none achieving the top causal- inference score in the review’s modified confidence index) used formal causal diagrams (e.g., directed acyclic graphs) or modern causal- inference methods to isolate climate change from confounders such as land use, fire management, invasive species, herbivory, or natural variability.

This means that while many observed changes coincide with climate trends, stronger proof that climate change is the primary driver is often lacking. Findings from the Mediterranean Basin cannot automatically be assumed to apply to the other four MTEs (or even uniformly across the Basin itself), because ecological differences, fire regimes, species pools, and research priorities vary.

Implications for science, management, and policy in the Mediterranean Basin

  • Scientific: The relatively rich observational record makes the Basin an important reference region. There is a clear opportunity to re- analyse existing long- term datasets with stronger causal methods, integrate them more systematically with remote sensing, experiments, and models, and expand underrepresented topics (especially diversity, phenology, physiology, and non- woody growth forms such as graminoids and forbs, which contribute heavily to diversity and can influence fire behaviour).
  • Cross- regional learning: Because the Basin dominates the literature, its findings currently shape much of the global narrative on MTE climate impacts. A collaborative programme across all five MTEs (emphasising shared resilience mechanisms) would help test which responses are truly general versus region- specific and improve transferability of insights.
  • Management and adaptation: Better causal understanding would support more targeted interventions for conservation, fire management, and climate adaptation in this biodiversity hotspot. The review stresses that identifying shared drivers of resilience and vulnerability across MTEs can strengthen management interventions, climate adaptation/mitigation efforts, and conservation action.
  • IPCC and global assessments: Only a small fraction of the observational studies (11 of 128 overall) fed into IPCC reports. Strengthening the observational evidence base and causal attribution from the Mediterranean Basin (and ensuring it is better represented) would improve the robustness of future assessments for this region and for MTEs more broadly.

In short, the Mediterranean Basin benefits from the densest observational evidence among MTEs, providing a solid foundation for understanding drought, variability, and fire impacts on vegetation condition and growth.

However, gaps in causal attribution, certain response types, and cross- regional comparability remain.

Addressing these through improved methods, long- term monitoring coordination, and collaborative research would enhance both local management and the ability to generalise (or appropriately differentiate) findings to the other MTEs.

Bar chart displaying the frequency of disturbance types (Drought, Fire, Frost, Pathogen/Insect, Climate variability) in various regions (California, Cape Floristic Region, Central Chile, Mediterranean Basin, SW Australia) across different categories (Condition, Growth, Physiology, Diversity, Phenology) with trends indicated as decreasing, non-linear, and increasing.
Trends in biological responses of plant communities in MTEs to climate change-related disturbances. Frequencies of decreasing, non-linear and increasing trends are plotted in stacked bar plots as proportions per disturbance.
A systematic review of observational studies reporting climate change impacts on plant communities in Mediterranean‐type ecosystems – Petersen – 2026 – Ecological Solutions and Evidence – Wiley Online Library

A systematic review of observational studies reporting climate change impacts on plant communities in Mediterranean-type ecosystems

Abstract summary

Mediterranean- type ecosystems (MTEs) are projected to be among the most vulnerable terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. While plant community responses have been extensively studied via experiments and models, observational studies remain relatively scarce.

This systematic review synthesises observed climate-change impacts on plant communities across the five global MTEs (Mediterranean Basin, California, central Chile, southwestern Australia, and the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa). It covers key disturbances and drivers of vegetation change, biological responses, geographic patterns, and confidence in the evidence.

Key findings:

  • Only 128 publications met the strict inclusion criteria (observational studies of climate- related disturbances affecting plant communities; experiments, pure modelling and projections, paleo-studies, agricultural systems, etc., were excluded).
  • Just 11 of these appeared in IPCC assessment reports.
  • Strong geographic bias: only 9% from the Global South. Disturbances and response types were unevenly reported across regions.
  • Most common disturbances: climate variability, drought, wildfire, frost, and pathogens and insect infestations, studied mainly in relation to vegetation condition and growth. Diversity, phenology, and physiology were less frequently examined (and sometimes absent in particular regions).
  • A confidence index (adapted from O’Connor et al. 2015, with additions for reporting quality and causal inference) showed relatively high scores for understanding links between disturbances and observed responses, but lower scores for confidently detecting climate- change- induced biological changes.
  • Few studies applied modern causal- inference methods. Differences among regions may partly reflect research effort and capacity rather than genuine ecological differences, limiting transferability of knowledge.
  • Opportunity exists to re-analyse existing long- term datasets with stronger causal approaches.

Policy implications: A collaborative, integrative research programme focused on shared resilience mechanisms across MTEs would improve understanding of causal relationships, support better- targeted management, climate adaptation and mitigation, and conservation in these biodiversity hotspots.

Additional context from the paper and related coverage

The authors searched Web of Science and Scopus (up to September 2024), supplemented by literature cited in recent IPCC WGII reports, and applied rigorous PECO- based eligibility criteria and multi- stage screening. They extracted detailed data on study design, systems, disturbances, and responses, and scored confidence on multiple axes (expectations and alternative causes, data quality, statistics, reporting, and causal inference).

Press summaries of the work (University of Cape Town and SAEON) provide the regional breakdown of the 128 studies:

Mediterranean Basin ≈ 88, California ≈ 18, southwestern Australia ≈ 10, central Chile ≈ 8, Cape Floristic Region ≈ 4. Drought and climate variability dominated reports in every region.

The full paper is available at the DOI link above (open access). Supporting information, data, and code are typically deposited with the journal or associated repositories (e.g., OSF registration of the review protocol exists from earlier stages of the project).

Published: Ecological Solutions and Evidence – Wiley Online, (2026), first published 4 August 2026

DOI: 10.1002/2688-8319.70304

Provided: University of Cape Town

Authors: Hana Petersen, Ryan Blanchard, Jasper Slingsby

Abstract

  1. Context. Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) are projected to be among the most vulnerable terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change. Plant community responses in MTEs to climate change have been well researched using experimental and modelling approaches, yet observational studies are less common.
  2. Approach. We present a systematic review of observed climate change impacts on plant communities across the five global MTEs, highlighting key disturbances and drivers of vegetation change, biological responses to these disturbances, and prevailing geographic trends.
  3. Literature trends. A relatively small number of publications met our criteria (Npub = 128), of which only 11 were reported in assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The publications exhibited a large geographic bias, with only 9% from the Global South. Reported disturbances and responses were unevenly represented across MTEs.
  4. Drivers and responses. Climate variability, drought, wildfire, frost, and pathogens/insect infestations were the most reported disturbances, largely studied in relation to vegetation condition and growth. Studies on diversity, phenology and physiology were less common, and absent in some MTEs.
  5. Confidence assessment. An index assessing confidence in studies’ methods and findings revealed high scores for understanding relationships between climate change impacts and observed responses, and lower scores for detection of climate change-induced biological responses. The extent to which reported differences among regions reflect different effects of climate change and biological responses versus research focus and capacity remains unclear. While the included literature has improved our understanding of observed climate change impacts on plant communities in each MTE, the transferability of this knowledge across regions is limited by unequal reporting between regions. Since few studies applied causal inference methods for observational data, there is an opportunity to reanalyse existing datasets to improve our understanding of causal relationships.
  6. Policy implications. Developing a collaborative, integrative research programme that considers common resilience mechanisms among MTEs will aid our understanding of causal relationships among climate change-induced disturbances and vegetation responses. By identifying shared drivers of resilience and vulnerability across MTEs, such research can support more targeted and effective management interventions, strengthen climate adaptation and mitigation efforts, and inform conservation action in these global biodiversity hotspots.

Beijing’s Useful Idiots: Germany, California and the Green Road to Chinese Supremacy

Strip away the self-congratulation and the case is this. The world’s third- and fourth-largest economies have become a climate vanguard. Berlin has pledged, for the first time, to end fossil fuel use by 2045.

Mr Newsom says California has run on 100% clean electricity on nine days out of 10 this year. What the Nation never asks is whom this performance serves.

California, once a great oil state, now sources 61% of its crude from abroad, led by Brazil and Iraq. The closure of Phillips 66’s Los Angeles refinery and Valero’s Benicia plant has stripped the state of 17% of its refining capacity and gasoline imports in 2025 exceeded the total for any year since at least 2004.

No wonder Professor Fritz Vahrenholt, a former Hamburg environment senator, told Apollo News this week that Germany’s Energiewende is “not a transition, but a retreat”.

An illustrated political cartoon titled 'The Green Road to Chinese Supremacy', featuring a green car labeled 'Net Zero' driving along a highway surrounded by wind turbines and factories, with caricatures of political figures including a smiling man in sunglasses and a woman holding a sign. The background depicts industrial scenes, shipping containers, and references to Chinese manufacturing and global supply chains.
AI generated by Grok

From Tikak´s Substack

By Tilak Doshi

A stylized illustration of a dragon amidst swirling clouds and waves, featuring intricate detailing and a watercolor effect in shades of brown and black.
Cheng Rong Dragon, Southern Song Dynasy (1127-1279) https://animato.uk/blogs/news/masterpieces-of-chinese-art-5-breathtaking-dragons-from-chen-rong

Satire has become redundant. The Nation, an old abolitionist publication founded in 1865 and now proudly the flagship of the Left, has just anointed Germany and California an “environmental superpower”. The author, Mark Hertsgaard, is the magazine’s Environment Correspondent and also Executive Director of Covering Climate Now, a foundation-funded media campaign that the Nation itself co-founded. His two showpiece claims are an interview that Gavin Newsom gave to Covering Climate Now and a poll-based crusade, the 89% Project, run by, naturally, Covering Climate Now and endorsed, in the AP story the piece cites, by an oat-milk company. A perfectly closed loop, which is more than can be said for the energy systems it celebrates.

Strip away the self-congratulation and the case is this. The world’s third- and fourth-largest economies have become a climate vanguard. Berlin has pledged, for the first time, to end fossil fuel use by 2045. It is not clear whether this is on a ‘Net Zero’ basis or if it actually means no fossil fuel use at all. Mr Newsom says California has run on 100% clean electricity on nine days out of 10 this year. What the Nation never asks is whom this performance serves.

Germany and California, it seems, are perfect complements to China. Beijing’s road to global supremacy in manufacturing and technology, artificial intelligence included, runs through cheap, dependable power and control of the supply chains. The two self-appointed climate leaders have made power dear, hobbled their own industries and handed the supply chains to Beijing. Lenin is said to have called such people useful idiots. Patricia Adams put the same point to Western greens in the Financial Post, and at greater length in her Global Warming Policy Foundation paper the Road from Paris. The pattern was already plain when Beijing was being cast as climate saviour: sign the green communiqué, collect the praise, keep building coal power plants as if there is no tomorrow.

In terms of realpolitik, in contrast to public posturing, China has little time for decarbonisation’s urgency. In this it is not alone. The US under Trump, India and Russia — representing over 40% of global emissions — reject the climate crisis narrative. These countries are intent on prioritising economic growth over climate alarmism and debilitating Net Zero policies. They share China’s pragmatism: aspirations for economic progress trumps unproven predictions of climate catastrophe. The first order imperative of Russia, China, India and their counterparts in the developing countries are regime and national security, dependent ultimately on improving the general welfare of their citizens.

A superpower that imports its energy

Germany has the highest household electricity prices in the EU, €0.38 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in the first half of 2025. A Verivox comparison for the second quarter of 2026 put the German household tariff at €0.36, more than five times the €0.07 paid in China. California’s residential price reached US$0.35 in April, against a national average of US$0.18 per kWh. Industrial users tell the same story. A steel mill in Germany can pay an order of magnitude more for power than a smelter in the Persian Gulf. More than 60% of the German household bill is taxes, levies and network charges – the cost of integrating weather-dependent generation and of paying for backup that must stand idle.

Germany sits on shale gas that its federal geological institute puts at 320 to 2,030 billion cubic metres of technically recoverable resource, far exceeding its conventional reserves, yet a 2016 ban keeps the frackers out while Berlin imported some 684 terawatt-hours of gas in 2025. That import dependence is a policy choice, and a bad one. Germany’s answer to the 2022 gas shock, after it sanctioned Russian gas imports to itself, was to lean harder on lignite while its last nuclear plants closed on schedule and were demolished with fanfare. Dunkelflaute, the cold, still, dark spells northern Europe undergoes, cannot be bridged by batteries at any price an economy could bear. Brussels, whose energy policy takes its cues from Berlin, is no better. Norway, outside the EU, ignores Brussels: it brought the Johan Castberg field onstream last year and its gas already covers about 30% of EU consumption. The Norwegians are not saving the planet; they are selling German’s heat.

California, once a great oil state, now sources 61% of its crude from abroad, led by Brazil and Iraq. The closure of Phillips 66’s Los Angeles refinery and Valero’s Benicia plant has stripped the state of 17% of its refining capacity and gasoline imports in 2025 exceeded the total for any year since at least 2004. Meanwhile, more than a quarter of its electricity arrives down the wires from other states. None of this is an accident of geology. The state’s oil industry association says new drilling permits are down 96%; Sacramento shuts the wells, shuts the refineries and then buys the barrels from Baghdad.

When I worked in a major American oil company headquartered in Los Angeles in the mid-1990s, there was an “all-hands” meeting on political risk for the corporate assets from Venezuela to Indonesia. A senior vice-president told the room not to forget the political risks of the “People’s Republic of California”. I never forgot it. The state is an energy island by choice, barely tied into the continental crude network, and it has spent two decades making its own hydrocarbons inaccessible.

Mr Newsom, expected to run for president in 2028, has every incentive to dress up the numbers and his “100%” boast deserves scrutiny. His office’s earlier version of the claim defined the feat as clean power “for at least some part of the day”, which in 2025 meant an average of seven hours daily, the equivalent of about 52 full days or nearly 30% of the year to that point. Nine days out of 10; 30% of the hours. Only a fully ordained member of the climate priesthood could present such statistics as a triumph and only a credulous press corps could print it. The US Department of Energy has put the point without ornament: about 15% of California’s primary energy comes from renewables and more than 75% from oil and natural gas. The California Policy Center has called the Governor’s clean-energy claims “transparently false”. He also says the “markets are moving his way” because the Iran war has made gasoline and diesel dearer. A state that imports most of its crude oil is, to put it kindly, an odd champion of that particular claim.

No wonder Professor Fritz Vahrenholt, a former Hamburg environment senator, told Apollo News this week that Germany’s Energiewende is “not a transition, but a retreat”. German chemical turnover is down about 22% from its 2022 peak. The DIHK energy-transition barometer finds industrial firms postponing core investment and shifting production abroad. Berlin’s answer is another subsidy – an admission that the Energiewende price is incompatible with manufacturing.

Lenin’s idiots, Beijing’s beneficiaries

Now to the beneficiary. The IEA reports that China’s share of every stage of solar panel manufacturing exceeds 80%, and that coal supplies more than 60% of the electricity used to make the world’s solar panels. Western virtue is manufactured in Chinese factories fired by Chinese coal. Beijing commissioned 78 gigawatts of new coal power in 2025, the most in a decade, with proposals for a further 161 gigawatts at a record. BloombergNEF finds mainland China holding over 70% of global capacity in every major clean-tech segment it tracks, and China has shipped on the order of a trillion dollars of batteries, solar equipment, electric vehicles and wind components since 2018. The panel on a German roof or the Baidu EV in the streets of Los Angeles is the clean end of a dirty chain.

China also processes some 90% of the world’s rare earth magnets and when it throttled exports in 2025 Germany’s auto lobby warned that car production could be halted. Professor Vahrenholt’s “retreat” has a human face: Volkswagen now plans to cut 50,000 German jobs by 2030, its profit at the lowest since 2016, as it struggles against Chinese competitors. Nor is the retreat confined to Wolfsburg. Last December the European Commission, bowing to the carmakers, dropped its hard 2035 cut-off for new combustion-engine cars – a tacit admission that an industry cannot be legislated into a technology that China has already cornered.

Then comes the prize. Artificial intelligence is, at bottom, a contest over electrons. China already generates more than twice the electricity of the United States, and BloombergNEF expects it to add more than six times as much generating capacity over the next five years. Where do you suppose the data-centre builders will go: to places that treat cheap, dependable power as a strategic asset, or to the two climate champions that treat it as a moral failing? Vahrenholt’s complaint is precisely that Germany shut its reactors while China and America race for AI leadership.

A version of this article was published in the Daily Sceptic https://dailysceptic.org/2026/10/05/beijings-useful-idiots-germany-california-and-the-green-road-to-chinese-supremacy/

Dr Tilak K. Doshi is the Daily Sceptic’s Energy Editor. He is an economist, a member of the CO₂ Coalition and a former (cancelled) contributor to Forbes. Follow him on Substack and X.