Tag: Deforestation

El Niño and Atlantic Warming Can Signal Extreme Amazon Heat Up to 7 Months Ahead

El Niño and tropical Atlantic warming can provide early- warning signals for extreme heat in the Amazon, with some precursors detectable up to seven months ahead, according to a new study.

The study characterizes lagged dependence between large- scale climate modes and Amazon temperature and precipitation extremes, then evaluates whether monthly precursor signals enable early warning of compound hot- dry events.

A digital illustration showing a lush green forest landscape under a sunset, with overlay maps highlighting weather patterns across the Pacific and South America, illustrating environmental connections.
AI generated by Grok

El Niño and tropical Atlantic warming can provide early- warning signals for extreme heat in the Amazon, with some precursors detectable up to seven months ahead, according to a new study.

Researchers from the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather (led by scientists at UNSW Sydney, with collaborators from the Australian National University, University of Melbourne, and Brazil’s National Institute of Space Research/INPE) published the findings in the journal Earth’s Future.

They analyzed monthly climate data from 1950- 2023 across six climatic sub- regions of the Amazon Basin, examining links between large- scale climate modes and temperature and rainfall extremes (assessed over three- month periods).

Key findings

  • Hot extremes in the Amazon are more likely after unusually warm conditions linked to El Niño (positive ENSO phase in the tropical Pacific) and warming in parts of the tropical Atlantic. These relationships are stronger and more widespread for heat than for cold extremes or rainfall extremes.
  • The clearest long- range signal is for March- May: extreme heat across much of the Amazon is associated with positive climate- mode anomalies observed as much as seven months earlier.
  • Seasonal variations:
    • September- November: Hot extremes primarily linked to earlier tropical North Atlantic warming.
    • December- February: Extreme heat more often tied to recent tropical South Atlantic warming (across much of the basin), with longer- lead ENSO signals in southern and western areas (e.g., Planalto Amazon and Andes- Amazon foothills).

Compound hot- dry events

The team also assessed simultaneous extreme heat and rainfall deficits (compound hot- dry events), which raise wildfire risk, stress ecosystems, threaten health, food and water security, and can reduce the Amazon’s carbon uptake.

Using statistical (copula) methods focused on extremes plus machine learning to test predictability from lagged climate indices (ENSO, tropical North and South Atlantic SSTs, and North Atlantic Oscillation):

  • Useful early- warning potential exists in some seasons and regions, especially northern and lower central Amazon.
  • Predictability is dominated by ENSO, peaking in December- February (notably western Guiana highlands) and March- May (lower central Amazon). Skill is weakest in June- August and parts of the western Amazon.
  • Reliable skill typically requires at least one climate index at short (e.g., 1- month) lead; the multi- month heat precursor signal does not translate into reliable seven- month forecasts of compound events.

Rainfall extremes show weaker, less widespread dependence on these large-scale ocean patterns than temperature does, partly because rainfall is more strongly influenced by regional weather, land- atmosphere feedback, and local conditions.

Context and caveats

El Niño alters tropical circulation in ways that can suppress Amazon rainfall and increase surface heating; tropical Atlantic warming can reinforce dryness and heat by shifting the Intertropical Convergence Zone. These mechanisms are well- known for seasonal means, but the study highlights their imprint on extremes, including surprisingly long lead times for heat in some seasons.

The results indicate potential predictability and identify promising regions and seasons for monitoring Pacific and Atlantic conditions. They do not constitute an operational forecast system.

Translating the findings into practical early- warning tools will require further work with dynamical climate models and additional predictors (e.g., soil moisture, vegetation state).

Lead author Dr Sanaa Hobeichi and co-author Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto (UNSW) noted that machine learning helped isolate the most informative signals while also showing where ocean indices alone are insufficient.

This research is relevant amid rising frequency and intensity of Amazon hot- dry extremes, which are expected to worsen with continued global warming and possible amplification by deforestation.

World map showing climate indices with labeled oceans and regions, including Niño3.4, TNA, and TSA.
Amazon region and climate indices used in this study; (b) climatic sub-regions identified by K-means clustering of annual and seasonal precipitation totals and mean temperatures. Regions from wetter to drier are shown in darker to lighter blue shades. Credit: Earth’s Future (2026). DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008496

Comparison of Hobeichi et al. (2026) with related Amazon climate studies

Hobeichi et al. (2026, Earth’s Future) focuses on lagged statistical dependence (via copulas, emphasizing tail and extreme dependence) between major climate modes (primarily ENSO/Niño3.4, TNA, TSA, and NAO) and Amazon temperature and precipitation extremes, plus machine- learning assessment (Random Forest) of the predictability of compound hot-dry events from those lagged indices.

It divides the basin into six climatic sub-regions, uses 1950- 2023 observational data, and highlights a particularly long- lead (up to 7-month) precursor signal for March- May heat extremes, with more limited and shorter- lead skill for compounds (strongest in northern and lower- central regions in DJF/MAM; weakest in JJA).

This sits within a large body of work on Amazon hydroclimate teleconnections, extremes, and predictability. Below is a structured comparison across key dimensions.

1. Established teleconnections (ENSO and tropical Atlantic)

Classic and recent studies establish the physical basis that Hobeichi et al. build upon:

  • ENSO: El Niño weakens the Walker circulation, promotes subsidence over northern/central Amazonia, suppresses convection/rainfall, and elevates temperatures. Major droughts (e.g., 1926, 1983, 1998, 2015- 16) are strongly linked to El Niño. La Niña tends to produce the opposite. Northern Amazonia is especially sensitive.
  • Tropical Atlantic: Warm TNA (often lagged after El Niño via atmospheric bridge mechanisms) shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone northward, delaying or weakening the wet- season onset (especially March- May in northeast Brazil and southern Amazonia) and reinforcing dryness and heat. The 2005 drought is a classic TNA- dominated example. TSA anomalies and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) also play roles. Southern Amazonia is often more Atlantic-influenced.
  • Combined Pacific- Atlantic effects frequently amplify extremes; interactions with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) appear in some multi-year drought analyses.

How Hobeichi et al. differ and advance: Most prior work uses linear correlations, composites, regressions, or wavelet methods focused on seasonal means or specific historical events. Hobeichi et al. explicitly target extremes via tail dependence (copulas), quantify lag dependence systematically (up to 7 months), and test predictive skill for compounds with ML. They confirm the expected physical mechanisms while showing temperature extremes have stronger and more widespread lagged links than precipitation extremes (which are noisier due to local processes).

2. Focus on extremes and compound hot-dry events

  • Multiple studies documents increasing frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent of Amazon heatwaves, droughts, and compounds (especially since ~2000 or 2010). Extreme heat almost always co- occurs with dryness in the most severe cases. The 2023- 2024 period stands out as record-breaking in compound dry-hot conditions, low soil moisture, and high vapor-pressure deficit, affecting large fractions of the basin.
  • Heatwaves are amplified under dry conditions via land- atmosphere feedback (reduced evaporative cooling, increased sensible heat). Synoptic patterns (e.g., enhanced South Atlantic subtropical high, reduced moisture influx) contribute.
  • Projections (CMIP5 and CMIP6) robustly show rising compound hot- dry risk under warming, with Amazonia as a hotspot; deforestation can further intensify them via feedback.

Hobeichi contribution: Moves from documentation and attribution of past events and future projections toward statistical early- warning potential using remote climate modes alone. It shows compounds are harder to predict than heat alone, and skill is highly region- and season- dependent, consistent with known spatial heterogeneity (northern vs. southern Amazonia).

3. Predictability and early- warning efforts

  • Some prior work has proposed Atlantic SST- based early- warning indicators for central Amazon droughts, with claimed lead times of many months (up to ~18 months in network- based approaches focused on specific ocean regions).
  • Seasonal forecasting systems and empirical methods already use ENSO and Atlantic indices operationally, but skill for extremes (especially compounds) is limited and variable.
  • Multi- mode analyses (ENSO, IOD and TNA) highlight coupled tropical interactions for multi- year droughts and note forecasting potential by monitoring oceanic indices.

Hobeichi contribution: Provides a more rigorous, basin-wide, lag- explicit quantification using modern tools (copulas for dependence and Random Forest for predictability).

It tempers expectations: the impressive 7- month heat signal does not equate to reliable long- lead compound forecasts; useful skill usually requires shorter leads (often concurrent or 1-month) and is strongest in specific region- season windows. NAO contributes little.

4. Methodological and regional novelty

  • Sub- regional analysis is common (northern vs. southern, or specific sub-basins), but Hobeichi’s k-means clustering into six climatologically coherent regions is systematic.
  • Lead author Hobeichi has prior expertise in ML applications to drought metrics, extremes predictability, and climate- mode explanations of precipitation variability (mostly Australian- focused previously), so the paper extends that toolkit to the Amazon.
  • Related recent work explores two- way interactions (e.g., Amazon drought itself amplifying subsequent TNA warming via land- atmosphere- ocean feedback) and emerging “hyper tropical” conditions under continued warming.

Summary of positioning

Hobeichi et al. (2026) is evolutionary rather than revolutionary: it confirms well- established ENSO and tropical Atlantic teleconnections while advancing the quantitative characterization of extreme (especially heat) dependence at long lags and the practical limits of using those modes for compound- event early warning.

Strengths relative to much of the literature include the explicit extremes focus (copulas), ML predictability testing, long consistent observational record, and clear regional and seasonal differentiation. Limitations shared with many observational studies include reliance on large- scale indices alone (local land- surface and atmospheric processes matter, especially for rainfall and western Amazonia) and the challenge of translating statistical relationships into operational systems.

It complements event- based analyses (e.g., 2023- 24 compounds), process and mechanistic studies, and climate- projection work by highlighting where monitoring Pacific and Atlantic conditions offers the most actionable lead time for heat risk, and where additional predictors will be essential for compounds.

Climate-Mode Precursors and the Predictability of Amazon Hot and Dry Extremes

Authors and affiliations

Lead and corresponding author: Sanaa Hobeichi (ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century; Climate Change Research Centre & UNSW AI Institute, University of New South Wales).
Co-authors include Lincoln Muniz Alves (INPE, Brazil), Andréa S. Taschetto (UNSW/ARC Centre), Wil Laura (ANU), Nayan Talmale (University of Melbourne), and Lisa V. Alexander (UNSW). First published online 27 August 2026.

Abstract and Key findings

The study characterizes lagged dependence between large- scale climate modes and Amazon temperature and precipitation extremes, then evaluates whether monthly precursor signals enable early warning of compound hot- dry events.

  • Methods: Copula- based analysis of tail dependence (focusing on extremes rather than average relationships) between climate indices and local anomalies at multiple lags. Machine- learning models (Random Forest classification) then test predictability of binary compound hot- dry months from lagged indices.
  • Climate drivers examined: Niño3.4 (ENSO), Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), Tropical South Atlantic (TSA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
  • Data: CRU TS v4.08 monthly temperature and precipitation (1950- 2023) over the Amazon, divided into six climatic sub- regions via k -means clustering on seasonal precipitation and temperature climatologies. Indices from NOAA sources.

Main results:

  • Hot extremes are more likely following positive ENSO phases and tropical Atlantic warming; these relationships are stronger and more widespread than for cold extremes.
  • Strongest and most persistent signal: March- May (MAM) temperatures. Hot extremes are more likely across much of the Amazon after positive climate -mode anomalies at lags of up to 7 months → substantial long- lead early- warning potential for heat.
  • September- November: Hot extremes mainly associated with prior TNA warming.
  • December- February: Short- lag TSA warming across the basin; longer ENSO lags in the Planalto Amazon and Andes and Amazon foothills.
  • Precipitation extremes show limited tail dependence with the climate indices. NAO generally shows weak dependence with individual hot or dry extremes.
  • Compound hot- dry predictability: Dominated by ENSO. Highest skill in DJF (especially western Guiana highlands and northern regions) and MAM (lower central Amazon). Lowest skill in June-August. Highest success rates in specific region- season pairs (e.g., ~81% in one central region for MAM, ~79% in a northern region for DJF). Reliable predictions typically require at least one climate index at ~1-month lead.

Plain- language summary (from the paper)

Unusually high or low phases of major climate modes (especially ENSO and tropical Atlantic variability) months in advance are linked more strongly to extreme heat than to rainfall deficits. The clearest long- lead heat signal is in March- May (up to 7 months). Forecast skill for simultaneous heat and dryness peaks in DJF and MAM and is generally strongest when ENSO information is included, but useful forecasts usually need relatively short lead times.

Context and aims

Hot-dry compound events threaten Amazon ecosystems, carbon uptake, fire risk, health, and food and water security. They have become more frequent and intense and are projected to worsen with continued warming (and possible amplification by deforestation). While mean- state teleconnections of ENSO and Atlantic SSTs with Amazon climate are well known, the paper focuses specifically on extremes, lagged relationships, and quantitative early- warning potential using modern statistical and ML tools.

The paper emphasizes that the 7- month signal is a long- range precursor for heat extremes, not evidence of reliable multi- month forecasts of compound events. Further work with dynamical models and additional local predictors (soil moisture, vegetation, etc.) would be needed for operational systems.

Journal information: Earth’s Future (2026)

First published: 27 August 2026

DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008496

Provided: ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather

Authors: Sanaa Hobeichi, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Andréa S. Taschetto, Wil Laura, Nayan Talmale, Lisa V. Alexander

Abstract

We characterize the dependence between lagged large-scale climate modes and Amazon climate extremes and assess whether monthly precursor signals enable early warning of compound hot-dry events. A copula-based framework analyses tail dependence between major climate drivers and precipitation and temperature anomalies at multiple lags, identifying where and how far in advance extreme phases of modes of variability likely precede local extremes. Machine learning models then evaluate the predictability of compound hot-dry events from lagged climate indices, determining which modes and lead times yield skillful forecasts. Copula modeling shows hot extremes are more likely following positive phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical Atlantic variability, with relationships more prevalent than for cold extremes. The most persistent signal occurs for March–May temperatures, when hot extremes are more likely across the Amazon following positive climate-mode anomalies at lags up to 7 months, indicating substantial long-lead early-warning potential. In September–November, hot extremes are associated with prior tropical North Atlantic warming. During December–February, they occur at short lags with tropical South Atlantic warming across the basin, and at longer ENSO lags in the Planalto Amazon and Andes–Amazon foothills. In contrast, precipitation shows limited tail-dependence with climate indices, and North Atlantic variability exhibits weak dependence with individual hot and dry extremes. Predictability of compound hot-dry events is dominated by ENSO and peaks in December–February, especially in the western Guiana highlands, and in March–May in the lower central Amazon, with lowest skill in June–August. Reliable predictions typically require at least one climate index at 1-month lead.

100,000 Rainforest Trees Likely to Have Died in Vain as COP30 Faces Brutal Net Zero Reality

Your correspondent is a kind chap who doesn’t care to intrude on private grief. For that reason I shall not be attending the upcoming COP30 conference in the Brazilian city of Belém. With the Net Zero fantasy falling to pieces, the faces of those attending will be as long as the local eight-mile highway that cleared 100,000 mature rainforest trees to help speed the 70,000 climate cultists on their way. In a pre-conference interview, the UN chief Antonio ‘boiling’ Guterres told the Guardian that “we don’t want to see the Amazon as a savannah”. As always, when the bloviating Guterres and the COP brigade rolls into town, you couldn’t make this stuff up, although they frequently do.

Construction work taking place in a forested area, with machinery and workers visible near a muddy pathway.

From The Daily Sceptic

By Chris Morrison

Construction workers working on a dirt road in a forested area, with heavy machinery and trees in the background.

Your correspondent is a kind chap who doesn’t care to intrude on private grief. For that reason, I shall not be attending the upcoming COP30 conference in the Brazilian city of Belém. With the Net Zero fantasy falling to pieces, the faces of those attending will be as long as the local eight-mile highway that cleared 100,000 mature rainforest trees to help speed the 70,000 climate cultists on their way. In a pre-conference interview, the UN chief Antonio ‘boiling’ Guterres told the Guardian that “we don’t want to see the Amazon as a savannah”. As always, when the bloviating Guterres and the COP brigade rolls into town, you couldn’t make this stuff up, although they frequently do.

Alas, it seems some of the over-priced hotel accommodation might fall short of the usual standards of comfort expected by the annual saviours of the planet. It is reported that thousands of rooms in ‘love’ motels have been turned into ‘diplomatic suites’ by replacing heart-shaped beds, dance poles and leopard-print décor. It seems hourly rates are not on offer and prices are as high as $1,000 a night, with ceiling mirrors presumably thrown in at no extra charge. 

Whatever the rooms are called, it seems unlikely they will be occupied by the grander members of the corps diplomatique, such as East Timor’s Adão Soares Barbosa. He recently informed BBC radio that his country was very much affected by sea level rise, a claim that might be less risible if it was not for the fact that over the long term the land of East Timor is leaping out of the sea due to complex underground plate movements. In common with many other Pacific islands, East Timor is growing in size helped by natural forces that also include surface accretions. Despite this, hundreds of billions of dollars are being sought at this COP for alleged climate damage caused by wealth-producing industrialised countries burning hydrocarbons.

At the COP meeting, someone always ends up getting screwed. 

Alas, again, the money spigot has been turned off. In the United States, until last year the biggest supporter of all things Net Zero and the ‘climate-stopping’ Paris Agreement, the Donald has been kicking ten bells out of the whole boondoggle. Where possible, green energy projects have been cancelled, federal funding of climate alarmism wiped out, foreign aid to boost said alarmism overseas removed, while climate scientists have been told to stop peddling nonsense and resume the scientific process. The UN already knows what President Trump thinks of the Net Zero project – it’s a scam and a con job he told them at the General Assembly. They laughed at him during his first term, but they are not laughing now.

Few heads of state are expected to show up this year although the UK, secure in its role as the sacrificial canary in the Net Zero mine, is being represented by the Prime Minister Sir Kier Starmer and the Prince of Wales. Not much point asking Starmer for more money, he is flat broke, while the Mountbatten Windsors have been having a few extra calls on their finances of late. While money will be in generally short supply, the tipping will be plentiful. Tips as in the Gulf Stream collapsing, the Arctic ice vanishing and the corals disappearing. However, many times we hear them, they remain firm favourites, something mere evidence and observation have little chance of ever removing from the public stages and prints. 

Things just ain’t what they used to be. Mark Poynting of the BBC, presumably one of those destined to travel down the Belém ‘Highway of Shame’ in the next few days, did his best with a “What is COP30 and why does it matter?” It was a dull, routine article, one that in future could easily be outsourced to AI. “A major step forward looks challenging this year, not least because of the effect of the Trump administration”, he concluded. Er, duh.

Elsewhere, support is slowly fading as the costs and impracticalities of Net Zero become apparent. Not to put too fine a point on it, renewables are useless for running a modern industrial economy and hydrocarbons are vital and likely to remain so. Who really wants to be on the side of those who would ban artificial fertiliser made from natural gas and condemn half the world to death by starvation? More questions are being asked about the underlying science of climate change, a subject that has been essentially banned by elite activists for the last 25 years. A considered and well-sourced report on the climate science that has not been able to speak its name for decades was written by five eminent scientists this year and officially published by the US Department of Energy. Activists were enraged and there were a number of ‘fact checks’ run by Green Blob-funded operations. Not a punch has been laid, but it has had the effect of pushing the entire debate into the open. The abuse showered on the five scientists has given a clear signal that politics has been at play here, not science.

COP30 is supposed to be significant since it is 10 years since Paris and the agreement that was supposed to save the world by a programme of global decarbonisation. But this year, barely a third of countries have submitted supposedly binding plans to decarbonise. The fact is that voters don’t care about decarbonisation schemes when they are asked to spend money. They will not pay to avoid imaginary climate scenarios based on junk climate models. Even if there is a problem, and natural weather variation makes that impossible to ascertain, the extent of generosity is limited. If the temperature ticks up a tad, so be it. The rises are tiny and have been seen countless times in the past. The USA is out of it, and the rest of the world is bound to follow in the end.

Last year, the president of COP29 in hydrocarbon-rich Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev praised oil and gas as “gifts from God”. This year as the war-on-humanity party reassembles in the Amazon, we remember the words of the Chinese military philosopher Sun Tzu: “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by”.

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor. Follow him on X.

The Associated Press Is Wrong, Coffee Prices Are Not Rising Due to Climate Change

The Associated Press (AP) claims in a post “Climate change is making coffee more expensive. Tariffs likely will too,” that climate change, in the form of severe weather like drought, is making coffee more expensive by suppressing yields. This is false. There is no evidence that severe weather is getting worse. In fact, coffee production is rising, and the AP itself suggests some alternative reasons which are far more likely for any rise in coffee prices.

From ClimateRealism

By Linnea Lueken

The Associated Press (AP) claims in a post “Climate change is making coffee more expensive. Tariffs likely will too,” that climate change, in the form of severe weather like drought, is making coffee more expensive by suppressing yields. This is false. There is no evidence that severe weather is getting worse. In fact, coffee production is rising, and the AP itself suggests some alternative reasons which are far more likely for any rise in coffee prices.

The AP reports that the destruction of some coffee plants “from heat and drought have cut production forecasts in Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s largest coffee growers.” They do admit that production globally is “still expected to increase, but not as much as commodity market investors had expected.”

Because of this, AP writes, coffee prices have risen.

This is a similar story to one Climate Realism covered back in February, “Sorry, New York Times, Climate Change Isn’t the Cause of High Coffee Prices,” but since the claims are persisting, it is worth revisiting.

Looking at data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) – the AP is correct that world coffee production has climbed nearly continuously since the 1990s. As discussed in the other Climate Realism post, world coffee production has risen 82 percent, and world record production and yields occurred as recently as 2020.  2023 saw the second highest level of production ever. (See figure below)

The specific countries that the AP claims have suffered recent losses, Brazil and Vietnam, have experienced trends of increasing production and yields over time, as well. In part, likely due to the fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide emissions, that has occurred over the same time period.

In Vietnam, FAO data show coffee production has increased 2,026 percent between 1990 and 2023. (See figure below)

In Brazil, production increased 132 percent over the same period, with fluctuations between record breaking seasons from one year to the next. (See figure below)

It is difficult to find comprehensive, long-term drought and temperature data for Vietnam and Brazil. Brazil is often talked about in the news for some severe drought the country has suffered on and off for a few years now, particularly in the Amazon River Basin. Historical drought data, discussed in this Climate Realism post, does not show that recent drought is unprecedented or even connected to global warming. Worse droughts have occurred in the region’s past during times when global average temperature is believed to have been cooler than today. There does not seem to be a long-term increase in the severity of drought Brazil. Deforestation is a likely culprit for recent dryness, as fewer trees in the Amazon make it harder for moisture to stay in the soil and maintain ground-level humidity.

A lower rate of increase in coffee production in a single year, lower but still an increase mind you, is neither evidence an impact of climate change nor portends doom for the future of coffee production. It is true that any given region has a maximum reasonable production capacity of coffee — but there is no evidence that peak has been reached yet anywhere, and climate change is not to blame either. Just as “peak oil” is an economic title and not an actual description of physically available resources, limits on coffee extend beyond the mere environmental. There are plenty of factors that limit crop production. Even the AP admits as much later in their article when says “[i]nflation is driving up the cost of labor, fertilizers, and borrowing.” The AP also explains that the expectation of tariffs may also push prices higher.

In February, the AP reported that the globe experienced a 14 percent decline in green coffee exports, which led to “the highest price ever for raw coffee in February, breaking the record set in 1977 when severe frost wiped out 70% of Brazil’s coffee plants.”

This doesn’t sound like the creeping pressures of climate change—since global coffee production is still much higher than during the 1970s, when emissions lower, temperatures were in the midst of a cooling trend, and scientists were warning of dangerous global cooling. It is clear that economic factors are the larger influences here.

The AP ought to have looked at a wider view of crop production data in Brazil and Vietnam, which may have assuaged some of their concerns about the future of coffee prices – at least as far as the influence of climate change is concerned. They do their readers a disservice, actually misleading more than informing them, by trying to tie every coffee price fluctuation to climate change, burying or downplaying the more direct economic factors.

COP30’s Amazon Highway: Hypocrisy Paved with Virtue Signaling

The BBC has uncovered a jaw-dropping irony in Brazil’s preparations for the COP30 climate summit, set for November 2025 in Belém: a four-lane highway, Avenida Liberdade, is being bulldozed through tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest. Touted as a traffic solution for the 50,000 world leaders and delegates expected to attend, this project drips with hypocrisy, exposing the gaping chasm between the climate summit’s green rhetoric and its deforestation reality.

From Watts Up With That?

By Charles Rotter

The BBC has uncovered a jaw-dropping irony in Brazil’s preparations for the COP30 climate summit, set for November 2025 in Belém: a four-lane highway, Avenida Liberdade, is being bulldozed through tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest. Touted as a traffic solution for the 50,000 world leaders and delegates expected to attend, this project drips with hypocrisy, exposing the gaping chasm between the climate summit’s green rhetoric and its deforestation reality. While global elites preach carbon cuts and sustainability, the Amazon—Earth’s mightiest carbon sink and biodiversity stronghold—is being felled to roll out the red carpet for their virtue-signaling parade.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9vy191rgn1o

The state government of Pará slaps a “sustainable” label on this 13-kilometer (8-mile) scar through the jungle, complete with promised wildlife crossings, bike lanes, and solar lighting. Infrastructure Secretary Adler Silveira calls it an “important mobility intervention” to modernize Belém and leave a “legacy” for COP30. But the reality on the ground tells a different story. Where lush rainforest once stood, logs now pile high as diggers pave over wetlands, slicing protected forest into fragmented patches. For locals like Claudio Verequete, who lives 200 meters from the carnage, it’s a personal betrayal. His açai berry harvest—his family’s livelihood—has been reduced to rubble. “Everything was destroyed,” he told the BBC. “We no longer have that income to support our family.” No compensation, no benefits—just a walled-off highway built for trucks and summit VIPs, not the people it displaces.

This isn’t just an environmental travesty; it’s a masterclass in greenwashing. The Brazilian president and environment minister have grandly declared COP30 “a COP in the Amazon, not a COP about the Amazon,” as if hosting it in the rainforest’s backyard absolves the sin of slashing it down. They’ll jet in thousands of delegates, build hotels, expand airports with an $81 million federal splurge, and redevelop ports for cruise ships—all while posing as saviors of the planet. Meanwhile, the road’s ecological toll is glaring: fragmented habitats, disrupted wildlife, and a shrinking wild where vets like Professor Silvia Sardinha struggle to release rehabilitated animals. “Land animals will no longer be able to cross to the other side,” she warned, underscoring the summit’s hollow promises.

The hypocrisy deepens when you consider Avenida Liberdade’s history. Shelved since 2012 due to environmental outcry, it was resurrected only when the prestige of COP30 dangled a chance to signal virtue on the world stage. Scientists decry the loss of biodiversity, locals lament their erased livelihoods, and yet the state presses on, cloaking destruction in buzzwords. Some market vendors, like Dalci Cardoso da Silva, buy the spin, hoping tourist dollars will trickle down. But others, like Verequete, see the grim future: a gateway to more deforestation, where gas stations and warehouses could soon replace what’s left of their homes—all while summit attendees sip cocktails and pat themselves on the back.

The COP30 spectacle reeks of performative environmentalism. Flying in global leaders to lament climate change while razing the Amazon for their convenience isn’t a solution—it’s a farce. As Sardinha put it, the high-level talks will hum along “among business people and government officials,” while those living the Amazon’s reality are silenced. This highway isn’t a legacy of progress; it’s a paved monument to the disconnect between climate grandstanding and the dirty work done in its name. If this is the road to a supposedly greener future, it’s one built on hypocrisy’s shaky foundation.

H/T strativarius and John C

Amazonian Rainforest Obliterated To Make Way For COP30

As any level-headed sceptic knows, a great deal of climate change activism is about posturing and virtue-signalling. No surprise then that part of an Amazonian rainforest has been obliterated to accommodate the upcoming COP30 summit.

The Daily Sceptic

By Sallust

As any level-headed sceptic knows, a great deal of climate change activism is about posturing and virtue-signalling. No surprise then that part of an Amazonian rainforest has been obliterated to accommodate the upcoming COP30 summit. The BBC has the story (so it must be true):

A new four-lane highway cutting through tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest is being built for the COP30 climate summit in the Brazilian city of Belém.

It aims to ease traffic to the city, which will host more than 50,000 people – including world leaders – at the conference in November.

The state government touts the highway’s “sustainable” credentials, but some locals and conservationists are outraged at the environmental impact.

The Amazon plays a vital role in absorbing carbon for the world and providing biodiversity, and many say this deforestation contradicts the very purpose of a climate summit.

Along the partially built road, lush rainforest towers on either side – a reminder of what was once there. Logs are piled high in the cleared land which stretches more than 13km (eight miles) through the rainforest into Belém.

Diggers and machines carve through the forest floor, paving over wetland to surface the road which will cut through a protected area.

Berry harvests have been destroyed with no compensation to the farmers. Wildlife has been disrupted too:

The road leaves two disconnected areas of protected forest. Scientists are concerned it will fragment the ecosystem and disrupt the movement of wildlife.

Prof Silvia Sardinha is a wildlife vet and researcher at a university animal hospital that overlooks the site of the new highway.

She and her team rehabilitate wild animals with injuries, predominantly caused by humans or vehicles.

Once healed, they release them back into the wild – something she says will be harder if there is a highway on their doorstep:

“From the moment of deforestation, there is a loss.

“We are going to lose an area to release these animals back into the wild, the natural environment of these species,” she said.

“Land animals will no longer be able to cross to the other side too, reducing the areas where they can live and breed.”

Needless to say, the underlying reason for this gratuitous destruction is political self-interest:

The Brazilian President and Environment Minister say this will be a historic summit because it is “a COP in the Amazon, not a COP about the Amazon”.

The President says the meeting will provide an opportunity to focus on the needs of the Amazon, show the forest to the world, and present what the federal Government has done to protect it.

Worth reading in full.

Meanwhile back in Britain, Britain’s eco-warrior Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, the tireless advocate of Net Zero at any price, is putting his money where his mouth is with his own brand of virtue-signalling.

According to the Telegraph, Mr Miliband has installed a heat pump in his north London home.

In 2023 his house was awarded an Energy Performance Certificate of grade D. A year later, with a heat pump installed:

The green heating system lowered the home’s carbon emission from 12 tonnes to 4.5 tonnes, but the property’s energy rating only rose to a C grade as a result.

Chris Norris, of the National Residential Landlords Association, said he was unsurprised a heat pump had “little impact” on Mr Miliband’s EPC.

He said: “At present, the metrics used are focused on cost of heating, and gas is significantly cheaper per unit than electricity.

“It is perfectly possible, as things stand, for an EPC score to deteriorate if switching from gas to electricity as the primary heating fuel. Changing this is one of the policies being consulted on by the Government.”

It seems two companies were involved in assessing the properly. Bizarrely:

Furthermore, the recorded floorspace of Mr Miliband’s property was assessed as being 252 square metres – 30 square metres less than had been recorded in the previous assessment only a year before.

There’s an explanation:

The assessor responsible for the new grade is a former hypnotherapist who retrained to be an assessor five years ago. He told the Telegraph that the training took “only around a week” to complete.

He said: “A lot of the time it’s low-paid – estate agents just use you. We’re the lowest of the low, really. EPCs don’t have a very good reputation.”

Dr Toby Gledhill, who led a PhD study into the flaws in EPCs, said of the Energy Minister’s assessments: “The floor area has shrunk quite substantially, by more than 10% between these two EPCs which are only a year apart.

“The smaller floor area means a reduced volume of space to heat, which leads to greater economy and this is reflected in the improved energy rating of the more recent EPC.”

In other words, the new EPC achieved a (slightly) higher grade because of the reduced heating requirements, not because of the heat pump.

The solution would appear to be simple: shut off as many rooms as possible in your home and see your EPC skyrocket. Then you can open them up again after the inspector has gone and save yourself the cost of a heat pump.

Or perhaps the Government could employ more hypnotherapists to encourage people to install more heat pumps?

Also worth reading in full.

How Ed Miliband’s Net Zero Fantasy Is Deforesting North Carolina

As everyone must now know, it doesn’t matter where the energy comes from in the great rush to Net Zero, only that the source must preferably be invisible to British consumers and voters. It seems that hundreds of acres of forest are being torn down in North Carolina to produce wood-pellets that are then poured into the gaping hungry furnaces of the UK’s Drax power station. 

From The Daily Sceptic

By Sallust

As everyone must now know, it doesn’t matter where the energy comes from in the great rush to Net Zero, only that the source must preferably be invisible to British consumers and voters. It seems that hundreds of acres of forest are being torn down in North Carolina to produce wood-pellets that are then poured into the gaping hungry furnaces of the UK’s Drax power station. 

The Mail has the story:

Some 280 acres of once pristine and ecologically-important wetland forest – a mix of oak, maple, hickory, cypress and pine – have disappeared, torn out as if by a marauding monster. All that’s left is a bleak expanse of boggy pools of water and pulverised pieces of wood.

It’s eerily reminiscent of photographs of No Man’s Land at the Battle of the Somme – only with the addition of several large piles of logs that the men who harvested the lumber from this remote north-eastern corner of North Carolina in November 2023 couldn’t even be bothered to take with them and left to rot.

According to scientists and environmentalists, the idea that new trees will replace the old ones felled any time soon is a load of nonsense:

They point out that burning wood is even dirtier in terms of carbon dioxide than coal and, more important, that it takes decades – 60 or 70 years in the case of hardwood forests – for a new tree to absorb the CO2 lost by burning the old one. 

That’s precious time, they say, that a warming planet simply doesn’t have, and hardly anyone’s idea of ‘sustainable’ energy.

However, that hasn’t stopped successive UK governments, the world’s most enthusiastic convert to the wonders of wood pellets, from giving billions of pounds in renewable energy subsidies to biomass operators.

Needless to say, the heroic leader of the vanguard to turn Britain into a Net Zero paradise of impoverished and frozen people is out in front to help drive this ultimate example of greenwashing:

This week, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband became the latest politician to keep this astonishing arrangement – described by opponents as Britain’s “biggest green hoax” – on the road when he approved a new funding arrangement giving the vast Drax power station in North Yorkshire (the country’s largest) around £2 billion over four years to keep burning biomass.

Miliband, the architect of the Government’s drive to Net Zero, has been implicated in the Drax scandal since 2008 when he was appointed Secretary of State for the newly created Department of Energy and Climate Change by then Prime Minister Gordon Brown. 

Although the new deal cuts Drax’s subsidies in half, given all the Starmer Government has promised about tackling global warming, environmentalists had been hoping for Drax to lose all its subsidy.

Drax, which ironically shares its name with a James Bond villain who set out to destroy the planet, burns the equivalent of 27 million trees every year and – because wood is much dirtier even than coal – is Britain’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, last year producing nearly 12 million tons of the planet-warming gas.

The cooling towers of the controversial Drax Group power station complex near Selby, UK

The Mail’s Tom Leonard inspected the site in person with a local guide:

There were no signs of new trees growing, or anyone trying to re-plant, even on one site that was logged three years ago. “This is ground zero for clearcuts – you see them appearing all the time and it’s really sad,” said my companion, who asked me not to use his name as “these people can be mean”. 

He used to go out regularly looking for new clearcut sites and then follow the lorries taking away lumber and chipped wood so that he could say with confidence that it had gone to an Enviva pellet plant.

Since it started importing huge quantities of pellets in 2012, Drax has relied on America’s South for most of them, not only because it has vast tracts of forest close to coastal ports for easy export but also because these conservative states impose few of the regulations that protect woodland in the UK and the rest of Europe.

Logging companies traditionally cut down only the biggest trees as they are most suitable for the building and furniture industries, leaving the smaller ones to keep growing. They also left the ecologically-precious ‘wetland hardwood’ varieties such as cypress because they were too gnarled to become planks or tables.

It doesn’t matter what your position on climate change is. The story here is the sheer hypocrisy:

Everyone I spoke to in North Carolina admitted they were slightly shocked that “tree-loving” and climate change-aware Britain, of all countries, had facilitated the biomass industry –adopting renewable energy accounting rules that didn’t account either for the forests being lost in the US or the carbon emissions from burning the wood.

Derb Carter, a senior lawyer at the Southern Environmental Law Centre, told me he had repeatedly visited the UK to explain the situation to government officials.

“There was this assumption that surely the US regulates how forests are managed to protect the public interest,” he said. The Brits were “surprised”, he said, when he explained that in southern states like North Carolina, there was nothing of the sort.

He was disappointed by Ed Miliband’s verdict on Drax this week, saying: “This is not a good decision for our climate and certainly not for our forests over here.”

“We had hoped that a new government would have taken a really hard look at this. When you’re basically cutting forests and hauling them across the ocean to burn instead of coal, it makes no sense.”

Mr Carter believes the fact that the environmental destruction happens out of sight – and therefore out of mind – has been very useful for Drax in winning British acquiescence.

“It’s a lot harder to burn your own forest than someone else’s,” he says. “People are going to be a lot more tolerant if the wood pellets just show up on a ship and you don’t see the trees being cut and don’t see the forest being lost.”

Just like buying solar panels and batteries from China, where the coal power stations providing the energy to manufacture them are conveniently out of sight, and allowing China to gain a chokehold on the UK renewables sector.

The North Carolina story is worth reading in full.

Net Zero Aviation Targets Driving “Mass Scale” Fraud and Deforestation

Net Zero targets aimed at encouraging airlines to use so-called green aviation fuel are driving fraud “at a mass scale” and deforestation, campaigners have said.

From The Daily Sceptic

BY WILL JONES

Net Zero targets aimed at encouraging airlines to use so-called green aviation fuel are driving fraud “at a mass scale” and deforestation, campaigners have said. The Telegraph has the story.

Exporters in China and Malaysia are using virgin palm oil instead of recycled cooking fat to make sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), research from lobby group Transport & Environment (T&E) suggests.

This means that rather than reducing CO2 emissions, the drive to adopt SAF may instead be driving deforestation.

SAF accounts for just 0.2% of total jet fuel use, although the British Government has ordered U.K. airlines to lift that proportion to 10% by the end of the decade.

Cooking oil forms the basis for 80% of the world’s SAF, making old chip fat a valuable commodity. 

However, unscrupulous suppliers are seeking to turn a profit by cutting out the kitchen altogether and shipping virgin palm oil to unwary refiners and airlines.

Malaysia is the worst offender, according to T&E, as campaigners cast doubt over the country’s claims that it exports three times more used cooking oil than it collects. 

Last year Britain secured almost 30% of its SAF from oil shipped from Malaysia.

Cian Delaney, the group’s biofuels campaigner, said: “With Malaysia being one of the world’s largest palm oil producers, it would heavily indicate that used cooking oil is simply a backdoor for palm. Fraud is almost certainly happening at a mass scale.”

China also appears to be engaged in cooking oil fraud, T&E said.

While figures on the collection and export of oil appear to match, China has a large market for “gutter oil” that is illegally resold for cooking.

Taking that into account, there are “strong suspicions” that some exports include virgin vegetable oil mislabelled as waste oil.

Worth reading in full.

Observation of the Earth shows that deforestation and urbanization cause three times more warming than CO2

Forget approximate climate models, whose simulations are increasingly removed from reality. There’s a far more scientific way of understanding the climate, and that involves observing the actual climate system directly from space or in situ. A multitude of satellites and a worldwide network of land, air and sea sensors make millions of observations every day, creating detailed, faithful images of the Earth.

From Watts Up With That?

By Robert Girouard

Forget approximate climate models, whose simulations are increasingly removed from reality. There’s a far more scientific way of understanding the climate, and that involves observing the actual climate system directly from space or in situ. A multitude of satellites and a worldwide network of land, air and sea sensors make millions of observations every day, creating detailed, faithful images of the Earth. In particular, satellites transmit huge volumes of data on the upper atmosphere and the Earth’s surface, enabling us to measure the system’s energy balance and attribute infrared emissions to particular atmospheric components. This high-quality space and in-situ data is freely available to all thanks to Copernicus, but the problem is that we don’t use it… 

Forget proxies and old data that are constantly being “adjusted”. We have proven, measured information that allows us to go back in time to 1960.  It’s a happy coincidence that January 1, 1960 is the reference 0 for the temperature series commonly used. The IPCC has arbitrarily ruled that climate change began with industrialization, i.e. around 1850 or 1880, since it assumes that GHG emissions are the cause. But data from the world’s oceans, which drive climate, show that their temperature began to diverge from its natural cycle around 1980. So let’s focus on the last sixty years, using the real-world observations available to objectively identify the true culprits of anthropogenic warming. 

This heterodox but oh-so-interesting point of view is supported by space engineer Michel Vieillefosse, a pioneer in satellite auscultation of the Earth. At CNES, he produced the first maps of thermal variations measured from space. His recent book ” Réchauffement climatique”  is a mine of information on the climate, how it works and its recent evolution. Based on real data and calculations, rather than model projections, he concludes that there’s no point in demonizing fossil fuels, and that the real causes of global warming – deforestation of tropical forests, urban heat islands and methane leakage – should be tackled first. Let’s see how he arrives at this astonishing conclusion. 

Warming is heterogeneous and multi-causal

Since 1960, the global average temperature has risen by 0.9 oC. However, this parameter cannot account for climate change, as it masks the significant disparities in local temperatures over time and space. At best, the average temperature indicates a trend.

Contrary to the impression created by the term “global warming”, climate change is far from uniform. The warming picture looks more like a patchwork quilt than a blanket. It is therefore essential to look at each region individually, and see what is really happening there, if we are to understand the climate scientifically. All these heterogeneities that blend into the average have a specific explanation. 

The Arctic is warming by 2, 3 or even 4 times more than the rest of the globe. This amplification observed since 1990 is mainly due to the influx of warmer waters from the tropics via the great oceanic heat conveyor, replacing the cold waters carried towards the Equator, and to the virtual absence of evaporation and lower albedo. It’s worth noting that an initial warming attested in 1938, 1943 and 1944 was followed by a cooling period. 

No such increase is observed in Antarctica, isolated by a circumpolar current. It does not change as a whole. The fact that Antarctica has hardly warmed at all since 1960 is a pebble in the shoes of the carbocentrists who blame everything on CO2 (being a well-mixed gas, its effect should be felt everywhere).

The obsession with GHGs has made us forget how the climate system really works. While the sun is the only real source of heat, the Earth cools not only through infrared radiation to space, but also through convection, evaporation and plant transpiration. Let’s understand that these mechanisms act as heat elevators; they cool the lower atmosphere; infrared radiation then takes over to evacuate the heat into the void; ironically, it’s mainly CO2 that takes on this task in the absence of high-altitude water vapour. Consequently, human activities that interfere with these mechanisms, such as deforestation and urbanization, cause marked local warming… but this is overlooked by the IPCC and climate models.

Three case studies are presented in M. Vieillefosse’s book to illustrate the impact of these interferences on climate: Hawaii, Beijing and Manaus, with respective temperature anomalies of 0.4°C, 1.9°C and 1.5°C since 1960. Such large discrepancies, in contradiction with atmospheric mixing, must lead us to investigate their specific causes: little human intervention for Hawaii, a vast urban footprint for Beijing and reduced vaporization of the Amazon rainforest for Manaus.  

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that excess local heat that is not evacuated into the vacuum of space is eventually absorbed by the global ocean, whose thermal storage capacity is 1,000 times greater than that of the atmosphere. Basic physics says that oceans warm the atmosphere, not the other way around. The warming ocean enigma is thus solved. 

The contribution of CO2 is secondary

CO2 levels have risen by some 140 ppm to 418 ppm over the past 60 years. According to ERBE satellite data, this increase has blocked 1.42 W/m2 of energy, which translates into a 0.21°C rise in the temperature of the lower atmosphere. Compared with the total CO2 contribution of 48 W/m2, this represents only 3% more. CO2 emissions resulting from human activities are therefore not the primary cause of climate change. On the other hand, they are clearly responsible for the greening of the Earth revealed by NASA satellites, a huge benefit for the planet, but this not recognized for its true value.

Similarly, methane has risen from 1.36 ppm to 1.86 ppm, for a forcing of 0.46 W/m2 ; this blocking of infrared radiation has led to a temperature rise of 0.06°C, which is therefore minimal. But with the increasing use of shale gas and the proliferation of landfill sites, methane emissions are on the rise.  

Both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone also play a part in blocking infrared radiation emitted into space, but the latter also plays an indispensable role in blocking harmful UV rays. 

Of course, water vapour is primarily responsible for the greenhouse effect, but it is also the main vector of cooling, of an order of magnitude incommensurate with infrared radiation. Its importance for the climate of our “blue planet” is immense but ignored. Man’s activities have reduced natural evaporation in the tropics; heat accumulates in the oceans and is transported to the North Pole, where it can only be evacuated with difficulty, hence the overheating of the Arctic. Contrary to what the models and those whose livelihoods depend on them imply, we have not observed any significant increase in water vapour in the atmosphere (prior to the Hunga Tonga eruption). 

Tropical forests, the Earth’s radiator

Satellite measurements show that tropical rainforests (6.25 million square kilometers, or around a third of the world’s forests) have an average cooling effect of – 2.4°C on the ground, compared with cultivated areas. At mid-latitudes, the effect is much less marked, if not non-existent. By contrast, boreal forests above 50° latitude have a local warming effect of +0.8°C. 

Concentrated in South America, Asia and Africa, tropical forests act as the Earth’s radiator, absorbing solar radiation, cooling it through evapotranspiration and providing water vapour for cloud formation. 

The Amazon represents the heart of our planet’s transpiration system. Because of its dark color, the forest captures more solar radiation than other soils. But this energy is returned by evapotranspiration, then rises into the upper layers of the atmosphere by convection, and finally radiates out into space. The air above the canopy contributes to cooling the whole Earth. The Amazon pumps and releases around 20 billion tonnes of water a day into the atmosphere. The Amazon creates 75 % of its own rain. 

Deforestation reduces emissivity by 10%, or 36 W/m2. For the globe as a whole, the figure is 0.17 W/m2. But what’s more serious is the suppression of evapotranspiration, in the absence of trees. Latent heat loss rises to 0.78 W/m2, spread across the globe. We lack 480 million hectares of forest to evacuate around 1,000 mm of water a year, along with the heat required for evaporation. This disrupts the precipitation cycle.

Some 240 million hectares of forest were cleared between 1990 and 2015. Roughly the same amount of woodland is likely to disappear by 2030, equivalent to 1/200 of the earth’s surface. As we are constantly told, this has the effect of releasing the carbon dioxide stored in trees and forest soils. But carbo-centrists forget that the main impact of deforestation is to deprive the Earth of a powerful cooling mechanism. 

In total, deforestation has caused half of the temperature rise since 1960, or 0.46°C, twice as much as CO2. Although never mentioned in the media, it is the main cause of climate change. And things aren’t getting any better. 

Rapid urbanization: a significant factor

Today, 56% of the world’s population, or 4.4 billion people, live in cities. This trend is set to continue: by 2050, with the current number of city dwellers doubling, almost seven out of every ten people in the world will be living in urban areas.   While it’s true that cities account for only a tiny fraction of the Earth’s surface – 1/1000 – land artificialisation and other urban interference create heat islands, with temperatures up to 10°C higher than in the surrounding countryside. These are concentrates of climate change!

Increasingly mineralized urban areas use dense building materials, eager to absorb the sun’s energy. With less vegetation, they provide less shade and do little to cool spaces, notably through evapotranspiration. Depending on their morphology, buildings can also prevent the wind from circulating and cooling the streets. In addition, waste heat from car engines, air conditioners and other energy-guzzling appliances adds to the overall rise in air temperature.

Urbanization increases the absorption of solar radiation, but above all it weakens the infrared radiation emitted by surfaces; emissivity can drop to 50%. This drop in emissivity results in more heat being retained at ground level, in excess of 180 watts per square metre, hence the famous “heat islands”. Black tar roads absorb even more solar heat. Rapid urbanization blocks soil transpiration. We see as much less cooling of the planet; the impermeabilization of surfaces immediately washes rain into watercourses via stormwater networks.

All in all, urbanization generates warming of the same order of magnitude as that created by CO2. It is also responsible for flooding. 

Action to counter global warming

Following the Kyoto and Paris Agreements, the fight against climate change is almost exclusively focused on reducing CO2 emissions. Unfortunately, we’ve got the wrong target. If we reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions to zero, its concentration will fall by just 2.5% per year. In other words, nothing. Let’s not forget that the drastic reduction in carbon emissions during the 2020 confinements did nothing to slow the rise in CO2 levels, or in temperatures, and this was due to concomitant phenomena. What’s the point of cancelling CO2 emissions at a huge cost if temperatures continue to rise?

In the case of methane, on the other hand, it would be relatively easy to plug the main leaks, which are easily identifiable. The fight against methane involves controlling open-air landfills and gas installations, which are responsible for 40% and 26% of emissions respectively. Dairies and composts emit 26%. Doing without milk seems difficult. We need to act first on the first two, less natural causes. So let’s introduce a methane tax… instead of this ineffective carbon tax! 

But above all, let’s stop focusing on CO2 and tackle the human activities that cause most of the warming. Priority should therefore be given to preserving tropical forests, especially the Amazon. If the entire Amazon rainforest were to be chainsawed, it would be a global ecological disaster, both in terms of climate and biodiversity. The Amazon would become nothing less than a desert, which is all the more plausible given its location in the “right” band of latitudes. Putting an end to deforestation now would make a tangible contribution to mitigating global warming. Why not set up a global fund for the conservation of tropical forests… instead of financing anti-oil activists?  Therein lies the urgency of action to save the planet. 

We can’t stop urbanization, but we can start to think differently about cities and buildings. Interesting experiments are being conducted here and there, notably to combat those pesky heat islands.  It’s in cities’ own interests to take action, because it’s first and foremost they themselves who will reap the rewards of their actions. 

We also need to adopt a more rational, non-ideological approach to energy transition, especially in Europe. Haste is also a bad advisor. So-called renewable energies have reached their limit in Germany. Sun and wind alone cannot replace fossil fuels. Innovation will be key in the future, as it has always been in the history of mankind.  

Mr Vieillefosse’s book concludes as follows: Isn’t it time we looked at the problem from a scientific rather than a political angle, and took rational, effective measures rather than acquiescing to sad demagoguery? May this book open the fight against global warming to a plurality of possible solutions.

May his wish come true. At any rate, it’s worth saving the Amazon and reducing urban heat islands. 

-30-

Source : Vieillefosse, Michel. Réchauffement climatique. Editions L’Harmattan.

Germany Begins Felling 120,000 Trees From ‘Fairy Tale’ Forest to Make Way for Wind Turbines

The windmills are spinning golden subsidies in the central German ‘fairy tale’ forest of Reinhardswald, but the payment is the partial destruction of the 1,000 year-old ancient wood itself. Work has started on the clearing of up to 120,000 trees in the forest, the setting for many of the Brothers Grimm mythical stories, to provide access for an initial 18 giant wind turbines around the Sababurg ‘Sleeping Beauty’ castle.

From The Daily Sceptic

BY CHRIS MORRISON

The windmills are spinning golden subsidies in the central German ‘fairy tale’ forest of Reinhardswald, but the payment is the partial destruction of the 1,000 year-old ancient wood itself. Work has started on the clearing of up to 120,000 trees in the forest, the setting for many of the Brothers Grimm mythical stories, to provide access for an initial 18 giant wind turbines around the Sababurg ‘Sleeping Beauty’ castle. Who is opposing this massive destruction of the ancient forest teeming with wildlife with trees over 200 years old? Certainly not the Green party, now in power at national and local level. In fact the project is being led by local Hesse Green Minister Priska Hinz who is reported to have said: “Wind energy makes a decisive contribution to the energy transition and the preservation of nature. It is the only way to preserve forests and important ecosystems.”

There is some local press interest in Germany about the destruction of part of the forest that covers a 200 square kilometre area. Nevertheless, the mainstream media generally keep well away from covering environmental destruction when the Greens are doing it in the claimed cause of saving the planet. The BBC did cover the story under the headline ‘Battle over wind turbines in the land of Sleeping Beauty‘, but that was in 2013 when plans for the industrial development were first announced. It seems that the state-reliant broadcaster is less interested now that the Big Bad Wolf has finally made a meal of Little Red Riding Hood.

Pierre Gosselin, who runs the German-based science site No Tricks Zone, has been covering the outrage felt in a number of German quarters at the plans to destroy some of the Reinhardswald forest in the interest of inferior green technology. He feels the affair shows what an inefficient and costly scam green energy is. “It’s not cost-free, it’s full of corrupt and unresponsive politicians who no longer care about democracy, and it certainly doesn’t make the environment better. It’s a nasty juggernaut of waste, fraud, corruption and ecological degradation – with dead birds, turbine vibration sickness, strobe dizziness and landscape pollution,” he adds.

The Guardian has been curiously silent over the clearing of woodland to build wind turbines in Hesse. In 2020 it was less reticent about reporting on the construction of a 3 km highway in another Hessian forest at Dannenroder. Thousands of climate activists gathered on the site north of Frankfurt, it reported. Dannenroder tree-felling would be a catastrophe, environmental campaigners are reported to have said. “Some parts of this forest are 250 years old,” noted Nicola Uhde of the German Federation for the Environment and Nature Conservation (Bund), “and there is simply not much of this kind of woodland around anymore.” At the time, the Guardian noted the fate of Dannenroder was a “litmus test for the Green party” which governed the state as part of a coalition. It seems to have been remiss in not suggesting such a test with the Reinhardswald deforestation. But then it seems none of the usual climate activists have been protesting about the loss of trees and wildlife habitat on this occasion.

The Daily Sceptic has reported on numerous recent examples where the lack of interest in ecological damage is a feature of green industrial development. Last month, we noted that one of India’s iconic large birds, the great Indian bustard, was on the verge of extinction due to the growth of electric power lines in its home area of the Thar desert. To reach global Net Zero, it has been estimated that new power lines equivalent to circling the globe 2,000 times will need to be built in the next few years.

Last October, we reported that wind farms in Tasmania had reduced the population of the endangered local wedge-tailed eagle to around 1,000 individuals. Across the world, millions of bats are being chewed by giant wind blades. Any animal that relies on wind currents for flight such as a large raptor is at risk of being sucked into the whirling machines. In California, the Democrat-controlled state Government recently relaxed controls on wildlife protections to allow permits to kill previously fully protected species for renewable infrastructure projects. Despite an increased risk to America’s national bird, the bald eagle, barely a peep of protest was recorded. Off America’s eastern coast, massive industrial parks are being constructed for wind turbines. It might be a coincidence that hundreds of whales have beached along the shore in recent years, but a more likely explanation is the deafening sonar noise, constant pile driving, extensive ocean building works and heavy shipping movements.

None of the above are likely to feature when the magic mirror is asked: “Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the greenest one of all?”

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.

Emergency? What Emergency? Amazon Deforestation Falls Over 60% Compared With Last July, Says Brazilian Minister

The Brazilian Amazon has witnessed a remarkable 60% drop in deforestation compared to last year.

From The Daily Sceptic

By RICHARD ELDRED

The Brazilian Amazon has witnessed a remarkable 60% drop in deforestation compared to last year. The Guardian has the story.

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell by at least 60% in July compared to the same month last year, the Environment Minister, Marina Silva, has told the Guardian.

The good news comes ahead of a regional summit that aims to prevent South America’s largest biome from hitting a calamitous tipping point.

The exact figure, which is based on the Deter satellite alert system, will be released in the coming days, but independent analysts described the preliminary data as “incredible” and said the improvement compared with the same month last year could be the best since 2005.

The rapid progress highlights the importance of political change. A year ago, under the far-Right then President, Jair Bolsonaro, the Amazon was suffering one of the worst cutting and burning seasons in recent history. But since a new administration led by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took power at the start of the year, the Government has penalised land grabbers, mounted paramilitary operations to drive out illegal miners, demarcated more indigenous land and created more conservation areas.

The results will bolster Lula, Marina and other Brazilian hosts of an Amazon summit designed to strengthen regional cooperation that will take place in Belém on 8th-9th August with the participation of the nine rainforest nations: Brazil, Colombia, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname and the French overseas territory French Guiana.

Silva said the acute threat of the climate crisis, which has brought record heat to many South American countries, meant the summit had to be more than a show of unity; it needed to produce concrete and continuous results to ensure the Amazon did not reach a point where it starts to dry up and die off, which scientists have warned is drawing closer.

She has proposed that each country produces an action plan, that they jointly create a scientific panel to keep them updated with the latest data, and that they share best practices to achieve the three goals of the summit: protection of the forest and traditional peoples, and to combat inequality and strengthen democracy.

The key to the improvement in Brazil, which is home to 60% of the Amazon, she said, had been a strong target. “The main reason is the decision of Lula to aim for zero deforestation. Since then, we have created new conservation units and indigenous territories that have produced some results … Now we need to move towards a new model of prosperity that is less predatory, less damaging to local people and the forest.”

In the first six months of the year, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell by 34%, compared to the same period last year, according to the Deter satellite alert system.

The figures for July, which is a more revealing month as it usually marks the onset of the clearance season, are still being collated, but Silva said they would show a significant improvement of “at least 60%” since the same period last year.

Independent analysts believe this might even reach as high as 70%. “It’s incredible, totally crazy,” said Tasso Azevedo, a forest engineer and founder of the MapBiomas analytical group. “This is on course to be the sharpest fall since 2005. We are still figuring out why this is happening so fast.”

Worth reading in full.