Day: October 14, 2026

Thwaites Glacier Could Contribute Twice as Much Sea-Level Rise by 2100, New Model Shows

A new UC Irvine and NASA JPL study finds that Thwaites Glacier (West Antarctica) could contribute up to ~30 mm (1.2 inches) of global sea- level rise by 2100, roughly twice prior estimates, even under constant recent climate conditions (no additional warming).

The grounding zone is a transitional band (often several kilometers wide) at the edge of a marine-terminating glacier where ice shifts between resting on the seabed and floating on the ocean.

Aerial view of the Thwaites Glacier with visible ice and melting areas, highlighting potential contributions to sea-level rise by 2100.
AI generated by Grok

A new UC Irvine and NASA JPL study finds that Thwaites Glacier (West Antarctica) could contribute up to ~30 mm (1.2 inches) of global sea- level rise by 2100, roughly twice prior estimates, even under constant recent climate conditions (no additional warming).

The research, led by Mattia Poinelli (then at UC Irvine, now UCLA) with Eric Rignot (UC Irvine) and colleagues from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and other institutions, was published in Nature Communications (October 2026). The paper is titled “Sea- level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation- constrained ice- sheet model.”

Key advance: modeling a “grounding zone” instead of a simple “grounding line”

Traditional ice- sheet models treat the transition from grounded ice to floating ice shelf as a narrow, discrete grounding line. Satellite radar data (including from the ICEYE constellation) show a broader grounding zone, often several kilometers wide, where warm, pressurized seawater repeatedly intrudes under ice that models previously treated as firmly grounded. This causes vigorous basal melting during tidal cycles.

By incorporating a grounding zone (typically 2- 5 and more km wide) into the Ice- sheet and Sea- level System Model (ISSM) and calibrating it against more than 20 years of observations (ice speed, thinning, and grounding-line position from the mid-1990s to 2023), the model much better reproduces the glacier’s rapid historical retreat, thinning, and acceleration. Without the zone, historical mass loss is under-reproduced by a factor of about four.

Projections

Under climate conditions held at the recent average:

  • No grounding zone: ~8.3 mm by 2100.
  • 1 km zone: ~14.3 mm (near the ISMIP6 multi- model ensemble mean of ~15.2 mm).
  • 3 km zone (statistically strong fit): ~19.4 mm.
  • 5 km zone (consistent with current radar observations): ~30.1 ± ~6 mm, about twice the ensemble average.

Adding a realistic grounding zone increases the projected contribution substantially (more than extra ocean warming of 0.5- 0.7 °C in the model). The main trunk of Thwaites is currently stabilized by the Mouginot Ridge; simulations with wider zones give roughly a 60% probability of unpinning from it by 2100 (as early as the late 2030s in some runs), after which retreat can continue more readily over a deepening seafloor.

Context and caveats

Thwaites (sometimes called the “Doomsday Glacier”) holds enough ice for ~65 cm of global sea- level rise if fully melted and sits in a sector responsible for roughly one-third of Antarctic ice loss.

The new 30 mm figure is for Thwaites alone by 2100 under no further climate change; it is a lower- bound scenario that does not include additional warming, calving, or evolving zone width. Full collapse is not projected this century.⁠

Rignot noted that earlier projections struggled to match observed mass- loss rates due to missing physics; the updated model matches the record and yields higher projections, implying greater coastal flooding risk in coming decades than previously anticipated.

The authors recommend incorporating actively melting grounding zones into broader ice- sheet models and collecting more oceanographic data beneath the ice shelf.⁠

This builds on earlier 2024 UC Irvine- led satellite observations of kilometer- scale seawater intrusions under Thwaites.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

The grounding zone is a transitional band (often several kilometers wide) at the edge of a marine-terminating glacier where ice shifts between resting on the seabed and floating on the ocean. 

It replaces the simpler traditional concept of a sharp “grounding line”.

Traditional grounding line vs. observed grounding zone

In classic ice- sheet models, the grounding line is treated as a narrow, discrete boundary: upstream of it, ice is firmly grounded on bedrock (supported by the solid Earth), and downstream it floats as an ice shelf. Ocean melting is typically assumed to drop to zero at or just beyond that line.

Satellite radar observations (especially high- resolution synthetic aperture radar from constellations like ICEYE) show a broader, dynamic grounding zone. At Thwaites Glacier, this zone is typically 2- 6 km (or more) wide along the main trunk, depending on the local bed slope. In shallower- slope areas it can reach ~6 km; on steeper flanks it is narrower (~2 km). Within this zone the ice is not permanently grounded or floating, it migrates and flexes with the tides.

How the mechanics work

  1. Tidal flexure and lift- off
    Ocean tides raise and lower the water level. Because ice is elastic and the bed is not perfectly flat, the floating ice shelf transmits this pressure inland. The ice sheet periodically lifts a few centimeters to tens of centimeters off the seabed over a multi- kilometer distance. When the tide falls, the ice settles again. This creates a migrating “hinge” or transition zone rather than a fixed line.
  2. Seawater intrusion
    As the ice lifts, pressurized seawater from the ocean cavity under the ice shelf is forced inland beneath the previously grounded ice. Intrusions can be only 5- 10 cm thick but can extend several kilometers upstream of the mean grounding position, especially into bed depressions or channels beyond stabilizing ridges (such as the Mouginot Ridge at Thwaites). The water is relatively warm (often several degrees above the in- situ freezing point) because it originates from Circumpolar Deep Water or modified versions of it that have been steered toward the Antarctic coast by climate- altered currents.
  3. Vigorous basal melting
    The intruding seawater contacts the underside of the ice over a large area. Melting rates in this zone can reach tens to over 100 meters of ice thickness per year, far higher than typical rates under fully grounded ice or even under many floating shelves. The meltwater and tidal pumping help flush the zone, continually renewing the heat supply. This basal melting thins the ice from below, reduces the effective weight of the ice column, and lowers basal friction (the ice is no longer fully “stuck” to the bed).
  4. Feedback on ice flow and stability
    Thinning and reduced basal resistance allow the ice to accelerate and stretch. Faster flow draws more ice from the interior. Because many West Antarctic beds slope downward inland (retrograde), once the grounding zone retreats past a stabilizing topographic high (a ridge or bump), the glacier can un- pin and continue retreating more readily. The wider the active melting zone, the easier and earlier this detachment becomes.

Why this matters for projections

Most earlier models that treated the transition as a thin line under- predicted the observed rates of thinning, acceleration, and grounding- line retreat at Thwaites. When models incorporate a multi- kilometer actively melting grounding zone and are calibrated to decades of satellite observations, they reproduce the historical changes far better and project roughly twice as much sea- level contribution by 2100 (up to ~30 mm from Thwaites alone under constant recent climate forcing).⁠

In short, the grounding zone acts as a dynamic “leaky hinge” where tidal pumping delivers warm ocean water deep under the ice sheet, driving enhanced melting, reducing stability, and accelerating mass loss in ways a simple grounding- line assumption cannot capture.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model

Abstract summary

Thwaites Glacier is a major contributor to Antarctic mass loss. Most models treat the grounded-to-floating transition as a sharp boundary and ignore kilometer-scale seawater intrusions that create an actively melting grounding zone. Using a calibrated Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM), the authors show that actively melting grounding zones 2–5 km wide are required to reproduce nearly three decades (1996–2023) of observed retreat, thinning, and acceleration. Projecting the calibrated model forward under constant recent climate forcing yields up to 30 ± 6 mm of global mean sea-level rise by 2100—approximately double previous projections—because grounding-zone processes control detachment from stabilizing seafloor ridges (unpinning possible as early as 2038).

Key scientific points

Problem with traditional models


Standard ice- sheet models struggle to simultaneously match the observed rapid retreat (~25 km on the main trunk since 1996 at ~800 m yr⁻¹), thinning, and acceleration of Thwaites. They typically treat the grounding line as a discrete boundary and force melt rates toward zero there. Satellite data (especially ICEYE SAR) show a dynamic grounding zone several kilometers wide where warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water repeatedly intrudes under ice, lifts it during tidal cycles, and drives vigorous melting.

Model setup

  • Model: ISSM with a regularized Coulomb friction law.
  • Actively melting grounding zone of length L is explicitly parameterized; melt is allowed inland of the flotation line.
  • Initialized to a mid-1990s state.
  • Calibrated via Bayesian methods against three independent observational records (1996- 2023): surface velocity, ice thickness change, and grounding- line position.
  • A small, localized bed- elevation correction (within map uncertainty) was applied to satisfy flotation consistency with the 1996 grounding line.

Historical reconstruction results

  • Simulations without a grounding zone require unrealistically high melt rates (~150 m yr⁻¹) and still under-predict later discharge, thinning, acceleration, and retreat.
  • Grounding zones of 2- 5 km with melt rates of 90-120 m yr⁻¹ (consistent with satellite and ocean-model estimates) successfully reproduce concurrent retreat of both the main trunk and the eastern ice shelf, the observed ~32 m of grounded-ice thinning, and the acceleration.
  • Simulations lacking a grounding zone are four times less likely to match the historical record.

Future projections (constant 1996- 2023 climate forcing, a lower- bound scenario)

  • The main trunk is currently stabilized by the Mouginot Ridge (~950 m below sea level).
  • Probability of unpinning from this ridge by 2100:
    • No zone or 1 km zone → essentially 0% (stays pinned).
    • 2- 3 km zone → ~45%.
    • 4- 6 km zone (consistent with recent observations) → ~60%, with unpinning as early as 2038.
  • Once unpinned, the glacier retreats more readily across retrograde seafloor toward the South Ridge.
  • Sea- level contribution by 2100 (melt rate fixed near the observationally preferred ~110 m yr⁻¹):
    • No grounding zone: 8.3 ± 3.0 mm
    • 1 km zone: 14.3 ± 3.1 mm (near the ISMIP6 ensemble mean of 15.2 mm)
    • 3 km zone: 19.4 ± 5.2 mm
    • 5 km zone: 30.1 ± 5.7 mm (twice the ISMIP6 mean)

Simply including a grounding zone raises the contribution by ~51%; each extra kilometer of zone width changes it by ~22% on average. Moderate additional ocean warming (+0.5- 0.7 °C) adds only ~15% more loss, so grounding-zone extent is the stronger control under the tested conditions.

Discussion and limitations

The authors emphasize that representing actively melting grounding zones, combined with observational calibration, substantially improves both hindcast skill and projection reliability. Limitations include:

  • Fixed (time- averaged) grounding- zone length rather than a prognostic, evolving one.
  • No explicit reduction in basal friction from seawater lubrication.
  • No evolving sub- shelf cavity geometry or full ocean circulation.
  • No calving or interannual ocean variability.
  • The projections are deliberately a lower- bound scenario (no further climate warming).

They conclude that actively melting grounding zones should be incorporated into regional and continental-scale ice- sheet models and call for more oceanographic measurements beneath the ice shelf.

The full paper (including methods, figures, and supplementary material) is available at the link you provided; a PDF download is offered on the page.

Journal: Nature Communications on 12 October 2026 (open access).

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77976-1

Provided: University of California, Irvine 

Authors: Mattia Poinelli,
Eric Rignot,
Hélène Seroussi,
Joshua Cuzzone,
Tyler Pelle &
Eric Larour 

ACE Index reveals a DECREASE, not increase, in Northern Hemsisphere tropical cylones.

If we are going to talk about the global climate, then we must look at tropical cyclones globally. That sounds intuitive, right? Well, you haven’t heard what’s been going on in the western Pacific (except from me, because I rant about it), which should be common knowledge when the Atlantic goes wild. If you know what is going on, you can see why the pattern can produce a year like this in the Atlantic. The ACE index is one of the lowest on record. As a percentage, it’s in the bottom 10%. But in ACE units, the western Pacific is almost 90 units below the 6-year average ACE of 301.

A satellite view of the Gulf of Mexico and surrounding land, showing a hurricane with cloudy formation near the center.
Hurricane Laura from Space. Extremely detailed and realistich high resolution 3d illustration.

From CFACT

By Joe Bastardi

If we are going to talk about the global climate, then we must look at tropical cyclones globally. That sounds intuitive, right? Well, you haven’t heard what’s been going on in the western Pacific (except from me, because I rant about it), which should be common knowledge when the Atlantic goes wild. If you know what is going on, you can see why the pattern can produce a year like this in the Atlantic. The ACE index is one of the lowest on record. As a percentage, it’s in the bottom 10%. But in ACE units, the western Pacific is almost 90 units below the 6-year average ACE of 301.

IOW, the average over the last 6 years out there has been as feeble as our Atlantic Basin is this year in total ACE. This is because a large-scale event is reducing, not increasing, tropical activity and intensity in the Northern Hemisphere, the opposite of what you are being told. I will show those numbers later

But first, in the western Pacific.

Average ACE for 2019–2025: approximately 209.

The north Atlantic this year is about 100 ACE points below average (season may not be done yet).

But the point is, the western Pacific, the busiest basin in the world, up until this year, is averaging almost as far below normal as the Atlantic is this year.

Are you aware of this?

And the Northern Hemisphere ACE index (where most of the global ACE occurs) since 2019 is averaging 13% below normal (it’s averaged 497; normal is 571).

So, the total ACE index has been significantly below average.

The Ace/storm in that time is 7.4.

In the previous 20 years, it was 9.04.

The AI conclusion:

Recent Northern Hemisphere seasons have had both fewer/less intense systems overall and less ACE generated per named storm. The drop shows up in both the seasonal totals and the intensity-duration metric.

So, tropical cyclones are not getting worse.

Which fits with the ideas I have put forth that the nature of the warming, more in higher latitudes than lower, and more poleward than toward the equator, is leading to a more stable climate.

You can’t claim overall it’s getting worse if it’s not. Fewer storms globally and less intense, is not more storms and more intense. Although, with some of the things going on today, someone will argue that is not true. Fill in the blanks for your favorite example of that.

The media ignores this and simply pushes any big event, of which there were more before. They ignore that western Pacific and activity has been decreasing, not increasing. You only hear about it when there is some kind of major storm.

A major balancing act is occurring here. This year, for instance, is likely to end as a record-high year for ACE in the eastern Pacific. Even when they don’t hit the U.S., storms contribute to wave action that can cause major flooding in Southern California. Waves radiate outward from tropical cyclones, so Marie and Rachel got out to the southwest of California, and the wave action piles up when it reaches the coast. It’s not climate change. In fact, here is Grok’s response to the question of when I first warned of what was going to happen with Rachel:

September 30, 2026, is the earliest clear public statement by Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) specifically warning that Tropical Storm Rachel would produce significantly larger waves (and related coastal impacts).

That’s a 10-day warming

The flooding is indirectly related to the strong El Niño because it leads to more tropical cyclones.  We knew that before the season and warned back in April that storms would hit Mexico this year. In the Atlantic, the El Niño plus the configuration of the Atlantic SST (sea surface temperature) has led to the down year. But the point is, someone always has a down year. What has been significant is it’s been mainly in the busiest basin on the planet, and it’s never reported on because it’s a sign of tranquility.

And in the Northern Hemisphere overall, there is more down than up as the numbers clearly show.

As I said, the Atlantic sea surface temperature configuration (something we talked about in the pre-season) has a lot to do with it.

Look at the El Niño of 2023:

A map depicting sea surface temperature variations across the Atlantic Ocean, with areas of warmer temperatures shown in orange and red, cooler regions in blue and green, and geographical outlines of North and South America.

Healthy El Niño, but the water is warm through the tropics in a way that encourages development.

So, most of the action was out to sea; the number of storms and the ACE index were way above normal.

  • Named storms: 20
  • ACE index: 148.2

Normal is 14 storms and ACE 123.

Now look at this year:

Map showing sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, with warmer areas depicted in shades of orange and red, and cooler areas in blue and green.

Very warm water to the north. Sure, there is a strong El Niño, but we have had only 9 storms and an ACE near 20.

The strong El Niño of 2015 had 11 storms and an ACE of 62.7.

The strong El Niño of 1997 had eight storms and an ACE of 40.

This year sticks out like a sore thumb, and it’s because of the way its warming.

So, the way the Atlantic is warm this year is helping to cut it.

Next year, we are already thinking it looks like a blend of 1998 and 2024, both high-impact years.

Bottom line: The idea that tropical cyclones are becoming more numerous and more intense is the opposite of what has been happening as the Earth warms. And it points to the fact that the way it’s warming promotes a more stable climate overall.  More stable lapse rates and less zonal available potential energy are the opposite of what is needed for the anarchy that man-made global warming pushers want to brainwash people into believing (which they have in many cases, with the aid of media with a lack of integrity to actually look at the total picture). Tropical cyclones are yet another example of this.

Ocean Circulation Continues for Centuries Even After Key AMOC Engine Shuts Down

The Ocean Circulation That Persists Even After a Key AMOC Component Fails, by Nathaniel Scharping (Eos, American Geophysical Union, published 13 October 2026), is a research spotlight summarizing a study in AGU Advances.

Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) is a fully coupled, open- source global Earth system model developed collaboratively by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the broader research community. It simulates Earth’s past, present, and future climate and Earth-system states and served as a major contributor to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).

Model output from preindustrial control, historical, and other experiments is publicly available (e.g., via ESGF). CESM2 has been applied in diverse studies, including AMOC behavior under CO₂ quadrupling, ice-sheet coupling, sub seasonal prediction, and chemistry- climate interactions.

Map illustrating the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), showing warm surface currents in red/orange flowing northward and cold deep currents in blue returning southward at depth.
AI generated by Grok

The Ocean Circulation That Persists Even After a Key AMOC Component Fails, by Nathaniel Scharping (Eos, American Geophysical Union, published 13 October 2026), is a research spotlight summarizing a study in AGU Advances.

It covers work by Shantong Sun and Andrew F. Thompson showing that a cross-hemispheric overturning circulation can continue for centuries even after North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, the sinking branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), shuts down under extreme warming.

Key points from the study

  • Climate models disagree on the AMOC’s future under warming. The researchers used a hierarchy of models, including the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) under a CO₂- quadrupling scenario and an idealized reduced- gravity ocean model.
  • In the CESM2 simulation, NADW formation fully ceases, yet the cross- hemispheric overturning transport slows only gradually and persists for centuries.
  • This residual circulation is not driven by a steady balance of sinking and rising water (diapycnal processes). Instead, it arises from a transient adjustment: progressive deepening of density layers (isopycnal surfaces) that rearranges the ocean’s stratification.
  • The same behavior appears in the idealized model, confirming the mechanism.
  • The circulation is therefore temporary; it may last several centuries until the ocean reaches a new density distribution, after which it could change further. Predicting the AMOC’s ultimate fate remains difficult.

Broader implications

The continued interbasin flow leads to a clockwise overturning circulation in the Indo- Pacific. This redistributes heat (shifting more into intermediate depths and potentially keeping the surface cooler), biogeochemical tracers, and ventilation. Expected effects include reduced nutrient- rich water in the upper ocean and substantially older ventilation ages in the deep Atlantic, with possible wide- ranging consequences for marine ecosystems and global climate.

The original research article is “Transient Global Overturning Following the Shutdown of North Atlantic Deep Water Formation” (Sun & Thompson, AGU Advances, 2026; DOI: 10.1029/2026AV002462).

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) is a fully coupled, open- source global Earth system model developed collaboratively by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the broader research community. It simulates Earth’s past, present, and future climate and Earth-system states and served as a major contributor to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).

Overview and purpose

CESM2 is the successor to CESM1 and includes substantial scientific and infrastructure improvements. It is maintained primarily by the Climate and Global Dynamics (CGD) Laboratory at NSF NCAR, with primary support from the U.S. National Science Foundation. The model is widely used for climate research, including studies of ocean circulation (such as AMOC responses under extreme forcing), paleoclimate, and future projections.⁠

Official site: https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/cesm2

Main components

CESM2 couple’s interactive models for multiple Earth system components that exchange states and fluxes:

  • Atmosphere: Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6; low-top ~40 km with limited chemistry, or high-top Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model/WACCM6 extending to ~130- 140 km with comprehensive chemistry).
  • Ocean: Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2).
  • Land: Community Land Model (CLM).
  • Sea ice: Community Ice CodE (CICE).
  • Land ice: Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM).
  • River runoff: Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART).
  • Waves: WaveWatch III (WW3).

Key improvements and performance relative to CESM1

CESM2 shows better agreement with observations in several areas, including reduced low- latitude precipitation and shortwave cloud forcing biases, improved representation of the Madden- Julian Oscillation, better El Niño- Southern Oscillation teleconnections, and a more realistic global land carbon accumulation trend.

Climate sensitivity (a measure of long- term global temperature response to doubled CO₂):

  • Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS): approximately 5.1- 5.3 °C (higher than CESM1, largely due to changes in cloud microphysics and boundary- layer parameters).
  • Transient climate response (TCR): about 1.9- 2.0 °C (comparable to CESM1).⁠

These higher ECS values have been noted in the literature; some studies examine whether they affect 21st- century projections or paleoclimate simulations.

Current releases (as of recent information)

  • Supported production release: CESM 2.1.5 (recommended for most science applications, especially CMIP6- related work).
  • Developmental release: CESM 2.2.2 (includes newer features but is not yet scientifically supported with long validated simulations).⁠

Model output from preindustrial control, historical, and other experiments is publicly available (e.g., via ESGF). CESM2 has been applied in diverse studies, including AMOC behavior under CO₂ quadrupling, ice-sheet coupling, sub seasonal prediction, and chemistry- climate interactions.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Transient Global Overturning Following the Shutdown of North Atlantic Deep-Water Formation

Abstract summary

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to weaken under climate warming, raising concerns about a possible collapse. Recent work has suggested that wind- driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean may prevent a full AMOC collapse even under extreme forcing.

This study analyzes a climate model (CESM2) under CO₂ quadrupling and shows that North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation can completely cease under extreme warming. Despite this shutdown, a cross-hemispheric overturning circulation persists for centuries.

This residual circulation is a transient adjustment of the global ocean caused by progressive deepening of isopycnal (density) surfaces, rather than sustained diapycnal (across- density) downwelling in the interior ocean. The same adjustment explains the emergence of a clockwise overturning circulation in the Indo-Pacific even without deep- water formation there.

These features are reproduced in an idealized 1.5- layer reduced- gravity model. The transient overturning has important climate implications: it redistributes heat into intermediate depths (helping mitigate surface warming) and reorganizes ocean tracers, altering global patterns of nutrients and ventilation that may feed back onto the climate system.

Key findings (from the paper and the Eos research spotlight)

  • In the CESM2 CO₂- quadrupling experiment, NADW formation shuts down, but cross- hemispheric overturning transport only slows gradually and continues for centuries.
  • A buoyancy- budget analysis shows that the apparent downwelling in the Atlantic and Indo- Pacific after NADW cessation is mainly adiabatic (linked to the deepening of density layers) rather than diabatic.
  • The continued circulation is therefore temporary: it reflects the ocean adjusting toward a new stratification state and may last several centuries before further change.
  • One consequence is the development of clockwise overturning in the Indo- Pacific, which redistributes heat, nutrients, and ventilation. Expected effects include more heat stored at intermediate depths (keeping the surface relatively cooler), reduced nutrient concentrations in the upper ocean, and substantially older ventilation ages in the deep Atlantic.

Data and models

  • CESM2 output from the Earth System Grid Federation (CMIP6 node).
  • Idealized reduced- gravity model code available on figshare.

The full PDF (and supporting files including the original manuscript and peer-review history) is freely available via CaltechAUTHORS: https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/26z4c-48×90.

This paper is the scientific source highlighted in the Eos article “The Ocean Circulation That Persists Even After a Key AMOC Component Fails” by Nathaniel Scharping (13 October 2026).

Journal: AGU Advances, Volume 7, Issue 5, e2026AV002462

DOI: 10.1029/2026av002462

Provided: American Geophysical Union

Published: 22 August 2026 (online)

Open access under Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial- NoDerivs License.

Authors: Shantong Sun, (Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China) and

  Andrew F. Thomps, (California Institute of Technology)

Peer Review :The peer review history for this article is available as a PDF in the Supporting Information.

Nuclear Power at ‘Warp Speed’: Magical Thinking Meets Statism

“Bipartisan support for commercial fission in Congress and the White House has opened the subsidy floodgates and, to an extent, reined-in overregulation. But the information of a free market where government is neutral is needed for the first time in the history of the industry.”

A satirical illustration depicting the concept of nuclear power implementation at 'warp speed', featuring industrial elements like reactors and warning signs, with whimsical elements such as a crystal ball and exaggerated policy phrases.
AI generated by Grok

From Master Resource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

“Bipartisan support for commercial fission in Congress and the White House has opened the subsidy floodgates and, to an extent, reined-in overregulation. But the information of a free market where government is neutral is needed for the first time in the history of the industry.”

Free- market energy adherents are warned to not make commercial nuclear power (fission) the new government darling in place of wind, solar, and batteries. Instead, a free-market framework needs to be established to let the market decide with government neutral.

Special government favor created this peacetime industry in the 1950s, and its heralded promise never eventualized since. At the same time, turbine technology to generate electricity put fuel oil and natural gas into the game, providing much needed (fossil fuel) competition to coal. Wind and solar as grid electricity were nowhere through the 1960s and into the 1970s.

My study, Nuclear Power: A Free Market Approach (AIER: January 20, 2026), examines the history of the 70-year-old industry. The story is as much politics as economics, and by any measure, nuclear power is the largest and most costly failure in U.S. energy history. In its simplest terms, nuclear fission is the most complicated, fraught, and expensive way to boil water to steam the turbines.

Too many on the free-market side consider commercial nuclear as the little engine that could have, with government overregulation being the problem. True, overregulation joined over-subsidization, but the latter set up the former. Take away both and nuclear power would not have been commercialized in the U.S. and probably elsewhere.

About the best that can be said is that nuclear is a successful failure. In Vaclav Smil’s words: “To whatever extent the technology can be termed a technological success, it is an economic failure.” In a world of competing ends to unlimited wants, this is a negative outcome.

Carte Blanche?

Nuclear is also a darling of the energy planners in and outside of academia. After all, nuclear fission is arguably the only mass-scale alternative to fossil fuel generation besides played-out, limited hydropower. But hope springs eternal with the ‘experts’ and would-be energy planners. The fire-ready-aim approach was forwarded by researchers at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

The United States needs to re-embrace nuclear energy and retake its role as a global leader in nuclear power technology…. Operationalizing a U.S. nuclear resurgence requires agreeing on an ambitious goal and working together to realize it. Just as Trump in his first term announced Operation Warp Speed to bring a COVID-19 vaccine to market, both parties should set aside partisan differences and back a Nuclear Operation Warp Speed with a target of building 20 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity by 2035.

The authors, Jason Bordoff, Ashley Finan, and Matt Bowen, refer to new proposed legislation, the International Nuclear Energy Act, intended to “to support the U.S. domestic nuclear energy industry’s leadership and offset China and Russia’s growing influence on international nuclear energy development.”

The bill’s sponsors were each quoted in a press release:

“If the U.S. doesn’t lead on nuclear energy development, Russia and China will. This bill will give us the tools we need to compete with these authoritarian aggressors and build long-lasting nuclear energy deals that benefit our economy and ensure America remains the leader on nuclear energy for generations to come,” said Chairman Risch.

“With the International Nuclear Energy Act, we’re not asking for a seat at the table—we’re setting the agenda on global nuclear development,” said Senator Lee. “Achieving American energy dominance will require us to streamline our nuclear exports, foster our relationships abroad, and bring the full weight of American industry to bear in out-competing our geopolitical adversaries. I’m grateful to partner with Senator Risch to ensure that America remains at the forefront of nuclear power for decades to come.”

“We need to counter Russia and China’s growing influence in nuclear energy development. That’s why I’m proud to cosponsor legislation that will boost America’s global energy dominance, unlock new partnerships and projects that will benefit American workers, and protect our national security,” said Senator Heinrich.

Government this-and-that is written all over the bill. In the words of its sponsors, the International Nuclear Energy Act would:

  • Support the establishment of an office to coordinate civil nuclear exports strategy; establish financing relationships; promote regulatory harmonization; enhance safeguards and security; promote standardization of licensing framework; and create a nuclear exports working group.
  • Create programs to facilitate international nuclear energy cooperation to develop financing relationships, training, education, market analysis, safety, security, safeguards and nuclear governance required for a civil nuclear program.
  • Require a cabinet-level biennial summit focused on nuclear safety, security, and safeguards, and to enhance cooperative relationships between private industry and government.
  • Establish a Strategic Infrastructure Fund Working Group to determine how to best structure a Fund to finance projects critical to national security.

Existing nuclear capacity, advantaged by sunk costs, can compete against new capacity from fossil fuels and from renewables. But for new nuclear capacity, the hoopla has not resulted in follow-through except in centrally planned economies where cost is not determining.

Energy expert Robert Bryce has described the gulf between aspiration and reality, with such talks and essays titled “The Nuclear Renaissance Isn’t What You Think” and “Nuclear Reality Check” and “Yes Nuclear. How Much, How Soon?” He, like many others, desperately wants competitive nuclear. But ….

Optimism and hyperbola about Small Nuclear Reactor (SMPs) pushed stock valuations high several years ago, followed by reality checks. A particularly hard month was in November of last year, when Oklo, NuScale Power, Terrestrial Energy, and Nano Nuclear Energy were significantly devalued. These stocks have not recovered. NuScale, for example, from a high of $57 per share a year ago is now trading below $8.00 per share.

Conclusion

Bipartisan support for commercial fission in Congress and the White House has opened the subsidy floodgates and, to an extent, reined-in overregulation. But the information of a free market where government is neutral is needed for the first time in the history of the industry. There is an off-ramp for self-regulation, as I forwarded in my primer from early this year.

In general, a free market approach to nuclear would entail

Ending governmental research and development in the field. Abolishing public grants and tax preferences for the industry. Halting foreign-loan guarantees. Repealing the Price-Anderson Act in order to privatize safety and insurance regulation. Lifting all antitrust constraints on industry collaboration. Making waste storage the responsibility of waste owners. Removing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the US Department of Energy from civilian nuclear policy.

And more specifically, involved parties can determine risk and a proven industry organization can replace the Nuclear Regulatory Commission on the ground.

And:

Investors and other financial stakeholders would judge reliance and safety, not Washington, DC. Radiation (such as the controversial linear no-threshold limit) and other standards would be determined by the parties informed by science. What would a judge or jury believe in this regard?

Free markets anyone?

Colorado River Drought Triggers Unexpected Groundwater Collapse in the Upper Basin

Virginia Tech research (published in Water Resources Research) shows that recent severe drought in the Colorado River Basin has driven an unprecedented shift in groundwater depletion, with the historically more resilient Upper Basin now losing groundwater faster than the Lower Basin.

NASA’s GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites measure tiny changes in Earth’s gravity field to track how mass, especially water, moves around the planet.

GRACE’s strength is its ability to “weigh” large regions from space, capturing the total water mass change even where ground- based well networks are sparse.

A vast, arid landscape showcasing dry, cracked earth patterns, with steep rocky cliffs in the background and a thin body of water visible in the distance under a clear blue sky.
AI generated by Grok

Virginia Tech research (published in Water Resources Research) shows that recent severe drought in the Colorado River Basin has driven an unprecedented shift in groundwater depletion, with the historically more resilient Upper Basin now losing groundwater faster than the Lower Basin.

Declining river flows and falling levels in reservoirs like Lake Powell and Lake Mead are the visible signs of the long- running Southwestern megadrought. Underground, groundwater reserves- which supply a critical buffer for about 40 million people, agriculture, and ecosystems- are depleting rapidly, and the pattern has changed.

Historically, groundwater declined more in the Lower Basin (Arizona, southern Nevada, southeastern California). The system has now reached a turning point: the Upper Basin (Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico) is experiencing rapid losses, with surface- water shortages increasingly affecting groundwater.

Researchers led by geosciences graduate student Esther Oyedele, working with assistant professor Susanna Werth and colleagues, isolated groundwater changes by combining NASA GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite measurements of total water storage with estimates of surface water, soil moisture, and snow-water storage for 2004- 2023.⁠

Key findings include:

  • Acceleration of groundwater depletion after 2019.
  • During the severe 2020- 2022 drought, the Upper Basin lost about 4.6 trillion gallons of groundwater, nearly double the Lower Basin’s estimated 2.5 trillion gallons.⁠

Oyedele noted: “We generally think of the Upper Basin as more resilient because of its snowmelt- driven recharge. I did not expect to see so much groundwater loss there during the recent drought. What surprised me even more was that groundwater did not track surface- water shortages in the same way in the Upper and Lower Basins.”

Groundwater and surface water are often connected; declining aquifers can reduce base flows into rivers, creating a feedback loop that worsens surface- water shortages. Continued depletion, especially in the Upper Basin, risks intensifying this cycle. Werth emphasized that managing surface water alone is no longer sufficient, protecting the basin requires treating water above and below ground as a connected resource.

The original study is available via DOI 10.1029/2025WR041695. The Virginia Tech news release by Kelly Izlar was published on October 13, 2026.

Map of the Colorado River Basin showing active management areas, irrigation zones, aquifers, reservoirs, and groundwater wells, with a small inset of the southwestern United States.
Map of the hydrogeological setting of the CRB and data applied in the study. Credit: Water Resources Research (2026). DOI: 10.1029/2025wr041695

NASA’s GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites measure tiny changes in Earth’s gravity field to track how mass, especially water, moves around the planet.

How GRACE works

GRACE does not take traditional “pictures” of Earth with cameras or radars pointed downward. Instead, the two nearly identical satellites themselves form the instrument.

  • The satellites fly in the same near- polar, low- Earth orbit (initially around 450- 500 km / 280, 310 miles altitude), one trailing the other by about 220 km (137 miles).
  • As they orbit, local variations in Earth’s gravity (caused by concentrations of mass below) pull on the lead satellite first, slightly speeding it up and increasing the distance to the trailing satellite. Moments later, the trailing satellite feels the same pull and the gap closes again.
  • A highly precise microwave ranging system (K/Ka-band) continuously measures these minuscule distance changes, to within about 1 micron (the diameter of a red blood cell, or roughly 1/100th the thickness of a human hair).
  • GPS receivers determine each satellite’s exact position relative to Earth. Onboard accelerometers measure non- gravitational forces (atmospheric drag, solar radiation pressure, etc.) so scientists can isolate only the gravitational effects.
  • Star trackers keep track of the satellites’ orientation.

From these data, scientists produce monthly maps of Earth’s gravity field. Differences between months reveal where mass has been added or removed.

What the measurements reveal

Because water has mass, changes in the amount of water stored on or below the surface alter local gravity. GRACE (and its successor GRACE- FO) can therefore detect:

  • Groundwater depletion or recharge in aquifers
  • Changes in soil moisture
  • Snow and ice mass loss or gain (glaciers, ice sheets)
  • Surface- water variations in large lakes, reservoirs, and rivers
  • Ocean mass changes related to sea- level rise and currents

The original GRACE mission flew from 2002 to 2017. GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) launched in 2018 and continues the record (with an added experimental laser ranging interferometer for even higher precision). Together they provide a continuous multi- decade view of terrestrial water storage changes.

Relevance to the Colorado River Basin study

In the recent Virginia Tech research, scientists used GRACE/GRACE -FO total water storage data and subtracted independent estimates of surface water, soil moisture, and snow water. The remaining signal isolates groundwater storage changes. This is how they quantified the unexpected rapid groundwater losses in the Upper Basin during the 2020- 2022 drought.

GRACE’s strength is its ability to “weigh” large regions from space, capturing the total water mass change even where ground- based well networks are sparse.

Its spatial resolution is relatively coarse (typically hundreds of kilometers), so it is best for basin- or regional -scale studies rather than individual wells.

Figure (a): Cumulative distribution function of GWSIDI showing probability decrease with increasing values.
Example statistical copula model for bivariate comparison of GWSDI and SWSDI. —
Contrasting Groundwater Response to Surface Water Shortages in the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins – Oyedele – 2026 – Water Resources Research – Wiley Online Library

Contrasting Groundwater Response to Surface Water Shortages in the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins

Key findings from the abstract and plain- language summary

  • The study analyzes basin-scale terrestrial water storage and groundwater storage in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) from water year 2004- 2023 using GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite observations combined with hydrological datasets.
  • There has been sustained basin- wide groundwater depletion over two decades, with accelerated losses since 2019, especially during the severe 2020- 2022 drought.
  • During that recent drought:
    • Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) lost 17.5 ± 3.5 km³ of groundwater.
    • Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB) lost 9.4 ± 6.5 km³.
    • (These volumes convert to roughly 4.6 trillion gallons in the Upper Basin and 2.5 trillion gallons in the Lower Basin, matching the press release figures.)
  • A copula- based statistical framework was used to quantify probabilistic relationships between storage- based drought indicators and to characterize groundwater- surface water interactions.
    • In the Upper Basin, there is strong coupling between surface- water deficits and groundwater drought probability (groundwater losses closely track surface- water shortages).
    • In parts of the Lower Basin, the statistical dependence is weaker, groundwater declines can occur somewhat independently of surface-water conditions, consistent with chronic human extraction under limited supply.

Broader context and implications

Groundwater is a critical buffer in the CRB, which supplies water to ~40 million people and extensive agriculture. The Upper Basin has traditionally been viewed as more resilient due to snowmelt-driven recharge, but the recent drought revealed greater vulnerability there. Continued depletion risks reducing groundwater contributions to river baseflow and intensifying feedback loops between groundwater loss and surface-water shortages.

The authors emphasize the value of satellite monitoring for large managed river basins and call for integrated water- management strategies that address both climatic pressures and sustained anthropogenic demand (above and below ground).

The full paper includes maps of the hydrogeological setting, GRACE mascon analysis, well data, and detailed statistical results. You can access the open- access version (including PDF download) directly at the DOI link above.

Journal: Water Resources Research,  (Volume 62, Issue 10)

DOI: 10.1029/2025wr041695

Provided: Virginia Tech

First published: 13 October 2026 (Open Access)

Authors:  E. O. Oyedele, S. Werth, G. Carlson (and others)

Abstract

Groundwater plays a critical role in sustaining the water supply in the Colorado River Basin (CRB), a region experiencing persistent drought, population growth, and increasing water demand. Using GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite observations combined with hydrological data sets, we analyze basin-scale variations and long-term trends in terrestrial and groundwater storage across the CRB from water year 2004–2023. We further apply a joint framework integrating copula-based statistical modeling with statistical inference to quantify probabilistic relationships among storage-based drought indicators and to characterize groundwater–surface water interactions. Results reveal sustained basin-wide groundwater depletion over the past two decades, with accelerated losses since 2019 and during the water year 2020–2022 drought. Notably, during this recent drought period, groundwater losses were larger in the typically more resilient Upper CRB (17.5 ± 3.5 km3) than in the Lower CRB (9.4 ± 6.5 km3), indicating increasing vulnerability across both subbasins. Copula-based analysis shows strong coupling between surface-water deficits and groundwater drought probability in the Upper CRB, whereas parts of the Lower CRB exhibit weaker statistical dependence, consistent with groundwater extraction operating partly independently of surface water availability under chronically limited supply conditions. These findings provide a basin-wide observational synthesis of groundwater–surface water dynamics and demonstrate the value of satellite-based monitoring for diagnosing hydroclimatic stress in large managed river basins. The results highlight emerging shifts in groundwater vulnerability across the CRB and underscore the need for integrated water-management strategies that jointly consider climatic pressures and sustained anthropogenic demand.