Day: October 9, 2026

Stratospheric Warmings Can Triple Risk of Extreme Power Demand in Europe

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), temporary breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, raise the odds of extreme cold and resulting spikes in electricity demand across northern and central Europe by 1.5- 3 times, according to a University of Exeter- led study.

In Europe, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) most commonly increase the risk of colder-than- average winter weather, especially in northern and central regions, with knock -on effects

Infographic illustrating the effects of stratospheric warmings on extreme power demand in Europe, highlighting the impact of a weakened polar vortex and cold Arctic air. Key points include increased electricity demand, potential strain on power systems, and the geographical distribution of affected areas.
AI generated by Grok

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), temporary breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, raise the odds of extreme cold and resulting spikes in electricity demand across northern and central Europe by 1.5- 3 times, according to a University of Exeter- led study.

Normally, strong, stable westerly winds form the stratospheric polar vortex high above the Arctic in winter.

Roughly once every two years this vortex temporarily breaks down in an SSW. The stratosphere warms, but cold surface air can spill southward into Europe (and North America). Cold weather after an SSW, such as the 2018 “Beast from the East”, typically arrives a few weeks later, giving energy providers and governments a useful early- warning window.

Key findings

  • Extreme electricity demand was defined as at least 20% above average and is driven mainly by heating needs.
  • Impacts vary by country: Scandinavian nations (better adapted to cold) show smaller demand increases, while France (with a highly electrified system) sees a steeper rise.
  • The UK is currently relatively well buffered by gas central heating, but the shift toward electrification (e.g., heat pumps) under net- zero goals will make cold, low- wind periods more challenging for grid reliability and costs.

Lead author Dr Regan Mudhar (now at the University of Lausanne) noted the clear statistical link between SSWs and extreme demand events, using the 2018 polar- vortex split as a prominent example.

Co- author Dr Hannah Bloomfield (Newcastle University) highlighted the growing relevance for energy systems as heating electrifies. Mudhar also observed that while greenhouse- gas- driven warming continues, SSWs are still expected to occur and bring cold snaps, so preparedness matters alongside emissions reductions during the renewable transition.

The peer- reviewed paper, “The influence of sudden stratospheric warmings on extreme European electricity demand,” appears in Meteorological Applications (DOI: 10.1002/met.70241) and was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council GW4 and Doctoral Training Partnership. The work builds on earlier research linking stratospheric variability to European weather and energy impacts.

Infographic illustrating Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and its impact on the polar vortex, showing temperature rise in the stratosphere over the North Pole before and during SSW events, depicting atmospheric wave propagation and altered weather patterns.
“Sudden stratospheric warming” (SSW), AI generated by Meta

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) mainly affect the Northern Hemisphere in winter. Their surface impacts (cold air outbreaks, shifts in the jet stream, storm tracks, etc.) vary a lot by location:

  • Northern and Central Europe (the focus of the recent University of Exeter study): Higher chance of extreme cold and elevated electricity demand (especially heating- driven) in the weeks after an SSW.
  • North America (especially eastern US and Canada): Can also bring cold outbreaks, though the exact patterns differ from Europe.
  • East Asia: Sometimes linked to colder conditions.
  • Southern Hemisphere, tropics and high Arctic: Impacts are generally weaker, different, or minimal for the classic “SSW → cold snap” pathway discussed in the European energy study.

In Europe, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) most commonly increase the risk of colder-than- average winter weather, especially in northern and central regions, with knock -on effects for energy demand.

Typical weather impacts

SSWs disrupt the stratospheric polar vortex and often lead (within days to a few weeks) to a more negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This favours:

  • High pressure over Scandinavia or the North Atlantic (“blocking”).
  • A southward shift or weakening of the jet stream.
  • Easterly or northerly winds that draw cold continental or Arctic air into Europe.

Key regional patterns (based on observations and studies):

  • Northern and central Europe (Scandinavia, UK, Baltics, much of Germany, Poland, etc.): Higher chance of prolonged cold spells, more intense cold extremes (coldest days and nights often 2°C+ colder in SSW winters for parts of Scandinavia), and increased snow risk (especially in milder western areas like the UK and Ireland). Average winter temperatures can be ≥1°C cooler in SSW winters over large parts of Scandinavia.⁠
  • Southern Europe: Tendency toward milder, wetter, and sometimes stormier conditions, with increased precipitation and more wet days.⁠
  • Impacts are not guaranteed, only a portion of SSWs produce strong surface cold (roughly half or somewhat more, depending on the metric and region). Effects can persist for weeks to ~40- 60 and more days and vary by SSW type (more “radical” events tend to produce stronger, more widespread cold).

Classic example: the February 2018 SSW, which contributed to the “Beast from the East” cold outbreak across the UK and northern Europe.

Energy and societal impacts

The recent University of Exeter- led study (published in Meteorological Applications) specifically quantified electricity demand effects:

  • SSWs raise the probability of extreme electricity demand (≥20% above average) in northern and central Europe by 1.5- 3 times. This is driven mainly by heating needs during cold weather.
  • Demand response varies by country: Scandinavian nations (already well adapted to cold) show smaller relative increases; France (highly electrified heating) shows steeper rises. The UK is currently buffered by gas heating but faces growing challenges as heating electrifies (e.g., heat pumps) under net- zero goals.⁠

Related studies (e.g., for Finland) also link SSW winters, especially when combined with the easterly phase of the Quasi- Biennial Oscillation, to colder temperatures, lower wind speeds, higher electricity consumption, and reduced wind power generation.

Broader effects can include transport disruptions from snow/ice, higher cold- related health risks, and stress on energy systems (particularly as renewables and electrification expand). Storm- related hazards in northern Europe are often less frequent after SSWs than after strong- vortex periods.

Practical note

Because the surface response typically lags the stratospheric change by days to weeks, an observed SSW can serve as an early- warning signal for energy providers and governments to prepare for potential demand spikes. Not every event produces extreme cold, but the elevated risk is clear and statistically robust for northern and central Europe.

Infographic on February 2018 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event explaining its contribution to the 'Beast from the East' cold outbreak in the UK and Northern Europe. Includes details about polar vortex lobes, temperature anomalies, cold air flow from the Arctic, and impacts on various cities like London and Berlin. Features a timeline and visual representation of the stratospheric wind patterns.
the February 2018 SSW, which contributed to the “Beast from the East” cold outbreak across the UK and northern Europe.
AI generated by Meta

The Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on Extreme European Electricity Demand

Abstract and Core Findings

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) offer surface predictability up to several weeks ahead. They typically precede colder weather (including extremes) across the northern mid-latitudes. Because cold weather drives higher heating- related electricity demand, the authors investigate the SSW, demand link using:

  • ERA5 reanalysis data and a weather- driven electricity demand model for various European countries.
  • Subseasonal forecast experiments from the Stratospheric Nudging and Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project, focused on the February 2018 SSW.

Key results:

  • Extreme electricity demand (~120% of climatology, i.e., at least ~20% above average) is 1.5- 3 times more likely in the periods following SSWs across northern and central Europe.
  • For the specific February 2018 SSW (which preceded a notable European cold outbreak), the SNAPSI nudged experiments show a robust simulated increase in extreme demand risk that can be attributed to the SSW itself.
  • This creates a practical “window of opportunity” for earlier prediction of extreme European electricity demand risks after SSWs are observed.

Methods Overview

  • Historical analysis: Identified 30 major SSWs (1979/80- 2024/25) using the Charlton & Polvani criterion on ERA5 10 hPa, 60°N zonal wind. Examined temperature-derived electricity demand in the 45 days after each SSW onset.
  • Attribution for 2018: Used SNAPSI ensemble forecasts with two stratospheric nudging setups (nudged to the observed SSW evolution vs. nudged to climatology). This isolates the causal contribution of the anomalous stratospheric state to surface temperatures and, via the demand model, to electricity demand extremes.

Broader Context

The paper emphasises that SSWs are one of the few sources of subseasonal- to- seasonal (S2S) predictability and that linking them explicitly to energy-system impacts (rather than just temperature) is novel. It also discusses the value of forecast- based attribution approaches for impact studies.

Title: The Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on Extreme European Electricity Demand

Journal:  Meteorological Applications (Volume 33, Issue 5, e70241)

DOI: 10.1002/met.70241

Published: 8 October 2026

Provided: University of Exeter

ABSTRACT

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) provide a source of surface predictability up to several weeks in advance. They generally precede cold weather across the northern midlatitudes, including extremes. When it is cold, demand for heating typically increases electricity demand. We use reanalysis data and a weather-driven demand model for various European countries to investigate the relationship between SSWs and extreme electricity demand. We find that extreme demand of ~120% of climatology is 1.5–3 times more likely in periods following SSWs across northern and central Europe. We then use subseasonal forecast experiments from the Stratospheric Nudging and Predictable Surface Impacts project to explicitly attribute the impact of the February 2018 SSW, an event that preceded a cold weather outbreak across Europe. These experiments include nudging of the stratospheric state to either its observed or climatological evolution, allowing the causal impact of the SSW to be identified. We find a robust simulated increase in extreme demand risk attributed to the 2018 event. This indicates a window of opportunity for earlier prediction of extreme European electricity demand risks following SSWs.

Euronews Is Wrong, Climate Change Is NOT The Biggest Threat to Tourism

Euronews reports that climate change is the biggest threat to tourism, according to a travel commission CEO. This is nonsense. Weather has always interrupted travel; the CEO and Euronews did not even try to cite any data demonstrating it is becoming more common. Tourism is so huge in Europe, that the term “overtourism” is being used to describe the conditions of popular European cities that are experiencing huge numbers of visitors.

An airplane flying above the clouds on a clear day.

From ClimateRealism

By Linnea Lueken

Euronews reports that climate change is the biggest threat to tourism, according to a travel commission CEO. This is nonsense. Weather has always interrupted travel; the CEO and Euronews did not even try to cite any data demonstrating it is becoming more common. Tourism is so huge in Europe, that the term “overtourism” is being used to describe the conditions of popular European cities that are experiencing huge numbers of visitors. Sometimes violent anti-tourist protests are breaking out in some European cities. Based on recent protests, if anything is threatening tourism there, it is the backlash against visitors in various popular European locations.

The article, “European Travel Commission CEO: ‘Climate change is the biggest threat to tourism right now’,” reports on a speech given by Eduardo Santander, who is the CEO and Executive Director of the European Travel Commission (ETC), at a recent tourism summit put on by Euronews.

The ETC, according to their website, “is a non-profit organization representing the national tourism organizations of Europe.” Santander explained that tourism makes up 10 percent of Europe’s economy, and 10 percent or more of the GDP of Spain alone. Santander proceeded to say that tourism infrastructure needs more investment because of the pressures of “overtourism” causing congestion at airports and in the visited communities. He then goes off the rails and claims that “climate change is the biggest threat to tourism right now, by far.”

Euronews quotes him as citing anecdotes like train service interruption “because the rails are expanded because of the heat,” and cruise lines being unable to enter some European rivers due to drought causing falling water levels.

The truth is that bad weather has and always will impact tourism. Deadly or severe heat waves are not unprecedented for Europe, nor are their impacts. This is especially true regarding drought: one need look no further than the reappearance of “hunger stones” – ancient drought-indicating markers in European rivers and lakes which show that severe drought in fact occurred multiple centuries before industrialization.

The article also claims that people are fleeing hotter vacation destinations for cooler ones. It is true that more of the cooler parts of the world are seeing more tourism, but so are the warmer locations. Indeed, tourism is booming in many countries as greater numbers of tourists explore beyond historically popular destinations, including colder locales. Overall, France saw the busiest summer tourism season in 15 years this year. Data from this year showed that tourism increased more in parts of France like Normandy than they did on the French Mediterranean coast, but numbers are still well above pre-pandemic levels.

It is almost certainly not the heat itself, tourists looking for a beach vacation expect and want the heat… except that perhaps American tourists would rather not stay in the hotels that lack air conditioning.

If it were true that global warming was making it so that people were abandoning hot destinations, places like Mexico would be seeing declines, but this is not the case. Mexico’s attractive areas have also seen increased tourism despite known dangers, and Mexico is much hotter than France. Mexico’s tourism has surpassed pre-pandemic tourism levels such that it is expected to be one of the top five most-visited countries by 2040.

This year, Spain is expected to surpass its all time record for tourist visits. The Canary Islands are warm year round, and saw a record breaking year last year for tourism.

Recently, the massive increase in tourism has become so stressful to some European city residents that protests against tourists have broken out in France and Spain, again the two places where climate change is supposedly threatening tourism.

In France, residents complain about the “Disneyfication” of parts of Paris, overcrowding has led to strikes and unrest. In Spain it is worse: protests have broken out in Barcelona, the Canaries, and other locations, some involving violent confrontations this year and in 2025.

Just because weather and transit disruptions in some locations can cause tourists to modify their vacation choices, does not mean that climate change is a huge threat to tourism. Despite knowing that the numbers are improving almost everywhere, Euronews and Santander decided to exaggerate the threat in order to give lip service to the climate agenda. At the same time, they are deflecting blame for European policies and the actions of some of Europe’s citizens that discourage or make tourism less welcoming.

Tiny Baltic Sea microbes clump together to ferry carbon into the deep

Tiny photosynthetic organisms (picocyanobacteria, mainly Synechococcus strains smaller than 2 micrometers) in the Baltic Sea can substantially help transport carbon from surface waters to deeper layers by forming colonies and aggregates that sink more readily.

The biological carbon pump (BCP) is a suite of biologically mediated processes that transfer carbon fixed by photosynthesis in the sunlit surface ocean (euphotic zone) into the ocean interior, sequestering it away from exchange with the atmosphere on timescales of months to millennia.

Underwater scene featuring clusters of small blue particles and organic matter suspended in water, surrounded by bubbles.
AI generated by Grok

Tiny photosynthetic organisms (picocyanobacteria, mainly Synechococcus strains smaller than 2 micrometers) in the Baltic Sea can substantially help transport carbon from surface waters to deeper layers by forming colonies and aggregates that sink more readily.

A study from the Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences at Stockholm University (led by Martin Ekman, with co- author Rachel Foster) shows that the tendency of different strains to aggregate directly controls how much of their biomass is exported downward.

Individual cells are too small to sink efficiently on their own, but colony- forming strains appear more often in larger size fractions and in sediment-trap material. Their contribution to exported biomass was broadly proportional to their abundance in surface waters (often a large share of the phytoplankton community).

Researchers sampled surface water plus depths of 25 m and 75 m at Landsort Deep (a long- term monitoring site) during spring and summer, used sediment traps below the sunlit zone, and combined microscopy, flow cytometry, size fractionation (>10 µm vs. free/small cells), and genetic sequencing (16S rRNA).

Seasonal differences appeared between colony- forming and mostly single- cell strains, suggesting aggregation is an important ecological trait.

This matters for the biological carbon pump: phytoplankton photosynthesis takes up CO₂, and sinking biomass moves that carbon deeper, helping regulate atmospheric CO₂. Remineralization of the sinking material also contributes to oxygen- poor (anoxic) bottom waters in places like the Baltic Sea.

Because picophytoplankton are expected to become more abundant in warmer, more stratified, nutrient-poorer future oceans, understanding how their biomass can still be exported is relevant for predicting carbon cycling and atmospheric CO₂ levels. The authors note that similar processes should be checked in other picophytoplankton-dominated regions, such as open- ocean gyres.

The peer- reviewed paper is “Differential aggregation properties among Baltic Sea picocyanobacterial strains impact their export,” published in The ISME Journal (2026).

Microscopic view of various microorganisms, including clusters of cells and filamentous structures, with a scale bar indicating 10 micrometers.
Micrograph of phytoplankton from Landsort Deep, BY31, the long-term monitoring site of the Baltic Sea where samples were taken for the reported study. In the upper left corner is a large diatom, Chaetoceros danicus, distinguished by its long spines protruding from the cell, a few large colonies and aggregates of picocyanobacteria lie in the background, and in the bottom middle are two pigmented and compacted colonies of the cyanobacteria Woronichinia next to two filaments of the N2-fixing cyanobacteria Aphanizomenon. Credit: Helena Höglander

The biological carbon pump (BCP) is a suite of biologically mediated processes that transfer carbon fixed by photosynthesis in the sunlit surface ocean (euphotic zone) into the ocean interior, sequestering it away from exchange with the atmosphere on timescales of months to millennia.

It is a major component of the global carbon cycle. Phytoplankton perform roughly half of Earth’s photosynthesis, drawing down dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC, including CO₂) and helping the ocean absorb atmospheric CO₂. Without the BCP, atmospheric CO₂ would be substantially higher (estimates often cite ~200 ppm higher in a world without export).

The BCP is often discussed alongside the solubility (or physical) pump and the carbonate (or alkalinity and hard- tissue) pump. A related concept is the microbial carbon pump, which transforms labile dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into more refractory forms that can persist for centuries to millennia.

Core Stages of the Biological Carbon Pump

  1. Primary production: Phytoplankton (including diatoms, coccolithophores, and picocyanobacteria such as Synechococcus) fix CO₂ into organic matter (particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) via photosynthesis in the euphotic zone.
  2. Food- web processing and transformation: Much of the fixed carbon is rapidly recycled in the surface layer by grazing, respiration, and bacterial degradation (the microbial loop). A fraction escapes recycling and is available for export.
  3. Export from the surface: Organic carbon (and some inorganic carbon) moves downward via multiple pathways.
  4. Attenuation and remineralization: As material sinks or is transported, microbes and zooplankton consume and respire it, releasing CO₂ (DIC) at various depths. The depth of remineralization largely determines how long the carbon is sequestered.
  5. Sequestration: Carbon that reaches greater depths (or is transported into poorly ventilated water masses) remains isolated from the atmosphere longer.

Main Export Mechanisms (Pathways)

Modern frameworks often group processes into three broad categories (gravitational, migrant, and mixing/physical injection pumps), sometimes expanded into six more specific “particle injection pumps”.⁠

1. Gravitational (sinking) pump: The classic pathway, often the largest contributor to net export.

  • Sinking particles: individual cells (especially larger phytoplankton), phytodetritus, marine snow (aggregates of cells, debris, transparent exopolymer particles- TEP), and zooplankton fecal pellets.
  • Aggregation is critical: small cells (e.g., picocyanobacteria <2 µm) rarely sink alone but can form colonies or stick together into faster- sinking aggregates, as shown in the Baltic Sea study. Ballasting by dense minerals (opal from diatoms, calcium carbonate from coccolithophores) increases sinking speeds.
  • Marine snow and fecal pellets sink at rates from meters to hundreds of meters per day. Recent work highlights that the internal viscosity structure of aggregates influences bacterial colonization and degradation rates, more viscous particles degrade more slowly and can sequester carbon more effectively.⁠

2. Migrant (animal- driven) pumps

  • Diel vertical migration: Zooplankton (and some fish) feed near the surface at night and migrate to deeper waters by day, where they respire, excrete, and defecate, actively transporting carbon downward.
  • Seasonal and ontogenetic (lipid) pump: High- latitude zooplankton (especially copepods) accumulate lipid stores in surface waters during productive seasons, then migrate to depth for overwintering (diapause), releasing carbon via respiration or mortality.

3. Mixing and physical injection (particle injection) pumps:

These transport both particulate and dissolved organic carbon via physical processes acting across different scales:

  • Mixed- layer pump: Seasonal deepening and subsequent shoaling of the mixed layer detains organic matter below the new mixed- layer depth.
  • Eddy and submesoscale subduction pump: Intense vertical velocities at fronts and eddies inject surface water (and its organic carbon) downward.
  • Large- scale subduction pump: Associated with large- scale circulation and Ekman pumping.

Additional contributions come from DOC export (some DOC is labile and quickly remineralized; a fraction becomes refractory via the microbial carbon pump) and from the carbonate pump (formation and sinking of CaCO₃ shells, which has different chemical effects on seawater alkalinity and CO₂).

Global estimates of organic carbon export from the euphotic zone are typically in the range of ~10- 15 Pg C yr⁻¹ (with substantial uncertainty and rapid attenuation so that much less reaches the deep ocean). A significant fraction of century- scale sequestration can occur above 1,000 m in some regions (“continuous vertical sequestration”).

Efficiency, Variability, and Climate Relevance

Export efficiency (the fraction of primary production that is exported) and transfer efficiency (how much of the export reaches greater depths) vary strongly with region, season, ecosystem structure (e.g., size of phytoplankton, zooplankton communities), temperature, nutrient availability, and oxygen levels. Warmer, more stratified, nutrient- poor oceans are expected to favor smaller phytoplankton (including picophytoplankton), which may alter aggregation and export dynamics.

The BCP also influences oxygen distributions: remineralization of sinking organic matter is a major cause of oxygen minimum zones and anoxic conditions in places such as the Baltic Sea.

Climate change is projected to affect the BCP through shifts in primary production, community composition, sinking rates, remineralization rates (often temperature- dependent), and ocean circulation. Earth- system models currently disagree on the net future change in global export flux.

In short, the biological carbon pump is not a single process but an interconnected set of biological, chemical, and physical mechanisms whose combined effect helps regulate atmospheric CO₂ and sustains deep- ocean ecosystems. Aggregation of even the smallest photosynthetic cells (as in the Baltic picocyanobacteria example) is one concrete illustration of how microscopic traits scale up to influence global carbon cycling.

A bar and line graph comparing carbon concentrations of eukaryotes (Euks), Nostocales (Nost), and other cyanobacteria across specific dates.
Seasonal trends in Baltic Sea phytoplankton identified by microscopy and flow cytometry.
Figure 1 Seasonal trends in Baltic Sea… | Oxford Academic

Differential aggregation properties among Baltic Sea picocyanobacterial strains impact their export

Key Findings (from the abstract and available excerpts)

Picocyanobacteria (especially Synechococcus) contributes substantially to carbon export in the ocean, but the mechanism allowing their tiny cells (<2 µm) to reach depth was unclear. This study provides in situ evidence from the Baltic Sea (Landsort Deep area) linking cell aggregation and colony formation directly to sedimentation.

  • Picocyanobacterial contribution to phytoplankton biomass export was largely proportional (70- 90%) to their abundance in surface waters.
  • Both cell aggregation (enrichment in the >10 µm size fraction) and sedimentation (enrichment in sediment- trap material) varied among different Synechococcus amplicon sequence variants (ASVs/strains).
  • A robust linear relationship exists between an ASV’s enrichment in the large-size fraction and its enrichment in sediment traps. This indicates that the degree of aggregation is a direct determinant of how much of that strain sinks.
  • Dominant aggregate- forming ASVs showed similar seasonal abundance patterns that differed from single- cell ASVs, suggesting that colony/aggregate formation is an important ecological trait influencing strain distribution and responses to environmental conditions (possibly nutrient dynamics).
  • By correlating microscopy observations with sequence data, the authors propose genotypes for the dominant colonial picocyanobacterial morphotypes in the Baltic Sea.

Methods Snapshot

Researchers combined:

  • Size- fractionated water sampling (surface, 25 m, 75 m)
  • Sediment traps
  • Microscopy and flow cytometry
  • 16S rRNA gene sequencing of free- living vs. aggregated fractions and trap material

Broader Implications

These results help explain how pico- sized phytoplankton biomass is exported from the photic zone. Because picophytoplankton are expected to become more abundant in warmer, more stratified, nutrient-poorer future oceans, understanding aggregation mechanisms is important for predicting biological carbon pump strength and atmospheric CO₂ levels. The authors recommend investigating similar processes in other picophytoplankton- dominated regions (e.g., open- ocean gyres).

This is the peer- reviewed source behind the Stockholm University press release discussed earlier.

The full text is available via the Oxford Academic link (may require institutional access or open- access options).

Journal: The ISME Journal (2026), volume 20, article wrag214

DOI: 10.1093/ismejo/wrag214

Link: academic.oup.com/ismej/article/20/1/wrag214/8772006

Provided: Stockholm University 

Published: 27 August 2026

Authors: Martin Ekman ,

Elina Viinamäki,

Anders Verstraaten-Svensson,

Ryan W Paerl,

Anders F Andersson,

Helena Höglander,

Jakob Walve,

Rachel A Foster

Abstract

Picocyanobacteria contribute significantly to carbon export but the mechanism by which their biomass is transported to depth is unclear. By analyzing 16S rRNA gene sequences from sediment trap material and size-fractionated water samples from different depths in the Baltic Sea, we show that picocyanobacterial contribution to phytoplankton biomass export was largely proportional (70%–90%) to their surface water abundances. However, we also found that both cell aggregation (enrichment in >10 μm fraction) and sedimentation (trap enrichment) varied among Synechococcus ASVs (amplicon sequence variants). A robust linear relationship was identified between ASV enrichment in traps and ASV enrichment in the >10 μm fraction, suggesting that cell aggregation is a direct determinant of Synechococcus sedimentation. Seasonal abundance patterns were similar among the dominant aggregate-forming ASVs but distinct from those of single-cell ASVs, suggesting aggregate/colony formation being an important trait in determining distribution of Synechococcus strains and their response to environmental conditions. Correlating microscopy- and sequence-based abundances further allowed us to propose genotypes for the dominant Baltic Sea colonial picocyanobacterial morphotypes. Our results provide in situ data linking phenotypic characteristics of picocyanobacteria with sedimentation properties and several lines of evidence for a quantitative dependency between surface water picocyanobacterial aggregate/colony formation and sinking. These findings are important for our understanding of mechanisms involved in export of pico-sized phytoplankton biomass from the photic zone to depth and emphasize the need to investigate occurrence and environmental regulation of cell aggregation in other picophytoplankton-dominated waters (e.g. open ocean gyres).

Build power stations to protect the environment

Most of the Western world is obsessed with reducing carbon dioxide emissions. This sentiment typically translates into an obsession with cutting back on industry which produces CO2, such as fossil-fuelled power stations, steel foundries, and so on. So, it does not immediately strike one as a good idea to aim to cut down CO2 emissions by building coal-fired power stations in Africa. But it definitely would curtail CO2 emissions a great deal.

A while ago I met a Swiss extreme-green who was in South Africa as part of a group of greens who travelled here to ‘teach Africans how to be responsible citizens of the planet.’

Two professionals in safety vests shaking hands against a sunset backdrop with power lines.
Electrician Workers Shaking Hands Near High Voltage Circuit Line Tower

From CFACT

By Kelvin Kemm

Most of the Western world is obsessed with reducing carbon dioxide emissions. This sentiment typically translates into an obsession with cutting back on industry which produces CO2, such as fossil-fuelled power stations, steel foundries, and so on. So, it does not immediately strike one as a good idea to aim to cut down CO2 emissions by building coal-fired power stations in Africa. But it definitely would curtail CO2 emissions a great deal.

Right now, there are 600 million people in Africa who do not have access to electricity. But these people still cook meals for the family and need to keep warm in winter. How do they complete these very human tasks? They light fires. What do they use for fuel? They collect fuel from the immediate surroundings. That fuel consists of materials such as wood and dung. The dung they collect from their cattle, or maybe they get some from wild animals in the neighbourhood. The wood they get from the natural environment. They go out into the surrounding bush and collect dead trees and branches. They also chop trees down. This is hard work, I know that from personal experience because I have collected bush-wood a number of times. On camping trips and day excursions out in the bush, us South Africans quite frequently collect the natural dry dead wood to make a fire to cook lunch or dinner. It is a favourite pastime to do a BBQ, or as we call it, a braai.

For tribal people living deep in a rural area, not connected to electricity, having a braai lunch or dinner is not fun, but rather survival. Collecting the wood is considered women’s work, and it is not unusual to see African women walking long distances with large collections of wood on their heads. It is amazing the loads that they can carry balanced on their heads.

Burning wood and dung creates smoke, plus the gases emanating from all the impurities in the wood and dung, plus loads of CO2. So just imagine millions of fires burning every day. Imagine also how quickly one could cut the CO2 emissions, if all these people were connected to electricity. That would be great. It has to happen in due course. The electricity could be produced using coal-fired power stations, burning coal cleanly with great modern efficiency. Such power stations are known as HELE technology. The HELE is; High Efficiency Low Emissions.

As illogical as it may sound, the construction of HELE coal-fired power stations would be good for the environment and for human health, if built in large numbers in Africa.

But the no-coal zealots would never hear of such a thing. They are not interested in doing the right thing for the environment, they are interested in their will being the dominant force. They are playing a political game.

A while ago I met a Swiss extreme-green who was in South Africa as part of a group of greens who travelled here to ‘teach Africans how to be responsible citizens of the planet.’ During a coffee break discussion with him he said that Switzerland should cut its electricity consumption by 20%, because Swiss people could afford to live a less extravagant lifestyle. He was also of the opinion that Africa should be limited to a 10% increase in electricity consumption. By 10% he meant ever, not per annum. He then produced pictures and waxed lyrical about how Africans should be an example to the world, on how to live ‘in harmony with nature.’ The pictures he produced showed an African woman walking from the river with a bucket of water on her head. Another showed an African subsistence farmer ploughing with a wooden plough, drawn by one ox. The Swiss greenie enthusiastically explained to me how they were living in harmony with nature, leaving a small footprint behind… as if the concept were new to me. I replied that I would rather see the farmer get a tractor and a steel plough. The greenie just about had a fit, and pointed out that not only does a tractor produce CO2 it would also lead to leaks of oil and fuel into the ground…bad for ants, worms, etc. Furthermore, the tractor would cause fuel tankers to have to deliver fuel, he earnestly explained, leading to more CO2 emissions, etc. I also got the lecture on how bad it would be to pump water to the village… that would require pumps and lubricants.

I marvelled at the mentality of the Swiss fellow who really seemed to think that he could convince me that it would be helping mankind and the planet by blocking electricity and fuel into African countries.

Of course, I don’t for one moment expect the large-scale building of HELE coal-fired power stations in African countries to actually take place, even if the countries had coal, which they don’t. But certainly, what can be done is the large-scale electrification of African countries by using nuclear power, particularly Small Modular Reactors. From an environmental conservation point of view, SMRs not only have a very small physical land area footprint, but they also use so little fuel that there’s no large-scale fuel delivery footprint. An SMR can have fuel deliveries three or four times a year, using a truck modified to carry the fuel. There’s no need for a fuel conveyor belt or railway, as required to deliver fossil fuel continuously.

When advocating environmental solutions for the world, it really is necessary to think carefully about the real circumstances of the various people concerned.

Here in Africa it does not go down at all well when people from European countries arrive and sanctimoniously preach to us on how we should be ‘saving the planet’ their way because they say so.

Ancient Mantle Flow Fossilized Beneath Earth’s Oldest Ocean Floor

Seismic analysis reveals “fossilized” traces of ancient mantle flow beneath the Pacific Triangle, the Pacific Ocean’s oldest preserved oceanic crust (about 160–180 million years old).

The oldest large- scale oceanic crust still preserved on the seafloor is in the western Pacific Ocean, specifically in the region known as the Pacific Triangle (or Pigafetta Basin area, east of the Mariana Trench).

Illustration of ancient mantle flow beneath the Earth's oldest ocean floor in the Western Pacific, showing layers including seawater, sediment, oceanic crust, lower crust, and upper mantle, with annotations for fossilized mantle flow and seismic wave paths.
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Seismic analysis reveals “fossilized” traces of ancient mantle flow beneath the Pacific Triangle, the Pacific Ocean’s oldest preserved oceanic crust (about 160- 180 million years old).

The findings come from a study led by YoungHee Kim of Seoul National University and colleagues, published in Seismological Research Letters (announced by the Seismological Society of America on 7 October 2026).

Researchers analyzed seismic anisotropy, directional variations in wave speeds caused by the alignment of minerals (mainly olivine) in the upper mantle under the influence of flow, using data from broadband ocean-bottom seismometers in the Korean- Japanese Oldest- 1 experiment (2018- 2019).

Key results

  • The Pacific Triangle lies ~1,000 km east of the Mariana Trench and marks the site of an ancient triple junction of spreading ridges.
  • Anisotropy patterns in the uppermost mantle are spatially variable and complex. They partly align with both ancient (fossil) and more recent plate motions but cannot be explained by simple present- day plate- motion- driven deformation alone.
  • Some orientations reflect inherited structures from the plate’s long tectonic history (changes in plate motion), while others show mantle deforming around features such as a sunken lithospheric remnant (redirecting flow, consistent with earlier tomographic images) and possible localized hotspot upwelling near the Magellan Seamount Trail and the old triple junction (areas with weak or absent clear anisotropic signals).

This provides a rare window into past mantle flow beneath old oceanic lithosphere, the interaction between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and the evolution of Earth’s crust. Fossil anisotropy in the lithosphere can coexist with signals from ongoing upper- mantle flow.

The team is now analyzing data from the nearby Oldest- 2 array (closer to the Mariana Trench) to extend the picture and better separate contributions from regional flow, inherited deformation, and the subduction system.

Source: Seismological Society of America news release summarizing the Seismological Research Letters paper by Kim et al. (2026).

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The oldest large- scale oceanic crust still preserved on the seafloor is in the western Pacific Ocean, specifically in the region known as the Pacific Triangle (or Pigafetta Basin area, east of the Mariana Trench). 

It is generally dated to about 160-180 million years old (Middle to Late Jurassic).⁠

  • This crust formed at the birth of the Pacific Plate around an ancient triple junction of spreading ridges within the Panthalassa Ocean.
  • Direct sampling (e.g., Ocean Drilling Program Site 801) and magnetic anomaly data support ages around 167- 170 Ma for the main mid- ocean ridge basalts, with some studies indicating the plate began accreting as early as ~190- 192 Ma.⁠
  • Oceanic crust is continuously created at mid- ocean ridges and destroyed by subduction, so almost none survives longer than ~200 million years. The western Pacific holds the oldest extensive, relatively undisturbed examples.

Possible older remnant

A 2016 study using magnetic data proposed that crust in the eastern Mediterranean Sea (Herodotus Basin) could be ~315- 365 million years old (Carboniferous–Permian, potentially a remnant of the ancient Tethys Ocean). This would make it the oldest known oceanic crust still in place under the seafloor.

However, this interpretation is more debated: the area is covered by very thick sediments, direct sampling is limited, and many standard references still cite the Jurassic western Pacific crust as the oldest well- documented large- scale oceanic lithosphere.

In summary: For the vast majority of scientific contexts and global seafloor age maps, the oldest oceanic crust is the Jurassic crust of the western Pacific (~160- 180 and more Ma). Older fragments exist as ophiolites emplaced on land (sometimes billions of years old), but those are no longer part of the intact ocean floor.

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Complex Upper‐Mantle Anisotropy Beneath the Pacific Triangle Revealed by Shear‐Wave Splitting 

The full text appears to be behind a GeoScienceWorld, SSA paywall or institutional access (attempts to retrieve the complete page content were blocked). The publicly available summary and related coverage provide the following key points:

Summary of the study

Seismic data from broadband ocean-bottom seismometers in the Korean- Japanese Oldest- 1 experiment (2018–2019) reveal complex, spatially variable seismic anisotropy in the uppermost mantle beneath the Pacific Triangle, a ~160- 180-million- year- old region of oceanic crust ~1,000 km east of the Mariana Trench. This area marks an ancient triple junction of spreading ridges.

  • Method: Analysis of shear- wave splitting (anisotropy), which records the lattice preferred orientation of minerals (primarily olivine) aligned by past and present mantle flow.
  • Main finding: The directional patterns of anisotropy are complicated. Some orientations align with both fossil (ancient plate- motion) and more recent plate motions, while others deviate from simple predictions based on present- day plate motion alone. Fossil anisotropy preserved in the lithosphere coexists with signals from ongoing upper-mantle flow.
  • Additional observations:
    • Systematic changes in wave direction indicate mantle flow redirected around a sunken lithospheric remnant (previously hinted at by tomography).
    • Weak or absent clear anisotropic signals near the Magellan Seamount Trail and the ancient triple junction, consistent with possible localized hotspot upwelling.
  • Significance: Provides a rare view of how mantle flow evolves beneath the oldest preserved oceanic plate, reflecting the interplay of plate-motion changes, inherited structures, and local features over geological time.

The research team is extending the work with data from the nearby Oldest- 2 array (closer to the Mariana Trench) to map regional trends and better separate contributions from inherited deformation, regional flow, and subduction- related processes.

For the complete abstract, figures, methods, and discussion, institutional or personal access to GeoScienceWorld / Seismological Research Letters is required. The SSA news release remains the most detailed open summary currently available.