Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
Euronews reports that climate change is the biggest threat to tourism, according to a travel commission CEO. This is nonsense. Weather has always interrupted travel; the CEO and Euronews did not even try to cite any data demonstrating it is becoming more common. Tourism is so huge in Europe, that the term โovertourismโ is being used to describe the conditions of popular European cities that are experiencing huge numbers of visitors.
Euronews reports that climate change is the biggest threat to tourism, according to a travel commission CEO. This is nonsense. Weather has always interrupted travel; the CEO and Euronews did not even try to cite any data demonstrating it is becoming more common. Tourism is so huge in Europe, that the term โovertourismโ is being used to describe the conditions of popular European cities that are experiencing huge numbers of visitors. Sometimes violent anti-tourist protests are breaking out in some European cities. Based on recent protests, if anything is threatening tourism there, it is the backlash against visitors in various popular European locations.
The ETC, according to their website, โis a non-profit organization representing the national tourism organizations of Europe.โ Santander explained that tourism makes up 10 percent of Europeโs economy, and 10 percent or more of the GDP of Spain alone. Santander proceeded to say that tourism infrastructure needs more investment because of the pressures of โovertourismโ causing congestion at airports and in the visited communities. He then goes off the rails and claims that โclimate change is the biggest threat to tourism right now, by far.โ
Euronews quotes him as citing anecdotes like train service interruption โbecause the rails are expanded because of the heat,โ and cruise lines being unable to enter some European rivers due to drought causing falling water levels.
The truth is that bad weather has and always will impact tourism. Deadly or severe heat waves are not unprecedented for Europe, nor are their impacts. This is especially true regarding drought: one need look no further than the reappearance of โhunger stonesโ โ ancient drought-indicating markers in European rivers and lakes which show that severe drought in fact occurred multiple centuries before industrialization.
The article also claims that people are fleeing hotter vacation destinations for cooler ones. It is true that more of the cooler parts of the world are seeing more tourism, but so are the warmer locations. Indeed, tourism is booming in many countries as greater numbers of tourists explore beyond historically popular destinations, including colder locales. Overall, France saw the busiest summer tourism season in 15 years this year. Data from this year showed that tourism increased more in parts of France like Normandy than they did on the French Mediterranean coast, but numbers are still well above pre-pandemic levels.
It is almost certainly not the heat itself, tourists looking for a beach vacation expect and want the heatโฆ except that perhaps American tourists would rather not stay in the hotels that lack air conditioning.
If it were true that global warming was making it so that people were abandoning hot destinations, places like Mexico would be seeing declines, but this is not the case. Mexicoโs attractive areas have also seen increased tourism despite known dangers, and Mexico is much hotter than France. Mexicoโs tourism has surpassed pre-pandemic tourism levels such that it is expected to be one of the top five most-visited countries by 2040.
This year, Spain is expected to surpass its all time record for tourist visits. The Canary Islands are warm year round, and saw a record breaking year last year for tourism.
Recently, the massive increase in tourism has become so stressful to some European city residents that protests against tourists have broken out in France and Spain, again the two places where climate change is supposedly threatening tourism.
In France, residents complain about the โDisneyficationโ of parts of Paris, overcrowding has led to strikes and unrest. In Spain it is worse: protests have broken out in Barcelona, the Canaries, and other locations, some involving violent confrontations this year and in 2025.
Just because weather and transit disruptions in some locations can cause tourists to modify their vacation choices, does not mean that climate change is a huge threat to tourism. Despite knowing that the numbers are improving almost everywhere, Euronews and Santander decided to exaggerate the threat in order to give lip service to the climate agenda. At the same time, they are deflecting blame for European policies and the actions of some of Europeโs citizens that discourage or make tourism less welcoming.
But the new president will be challenged by a poor economy inherited from past-President Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla leader. Elected on a promise to lead the world out of hydrocarbons, Petro banned new exploration contracts.
Yet, claims of a climate crisis do not withstand scientific scrutiny.
Colombia spent four years under leftist leadership apologizing for its energy resources. The penance ended when newly elected President Abelardo de la Espriella told his countrymen that energy security sits at the center of national sovereignty. He pledged to revive oil and gas exploration, rebuild state-owned petroleum company Ecopetrol, and authorize hydraulic fracturing under strict technical and environmental standards.
De la Espriellaโs inauguration address in Cali laid out a clear strategy: Colombia will pursue an energy transition, but not from a position of dependence. Any transition, he said, must be โbuilt from strength, not from weaknessโ. That rules out policies embracing solar and wind energy by compromising affordability, reliability, and flexibility.
But the new president will be challenged by a poor economy inherited from past-President Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla leader. Elected on a promise to lead the world out of hydrocarbons, Petro banned new exploration contracts. At the COP30 climate summit in Belรฉm, he informed the planet that survival is โonly possible if we separate ourselves from oil, coal, and natural gas.โ
Industry figures show foreign direct investment in Colombian mining and oil dropped 34% to $6.9 billion between 2023 and 2025. Average crude output slid 4% and crude reserves shrank by 54 million barrels. Natural gas imports climbed from 3% of domestic consumption in 2023 to 31% by 2025.
A nation that supplied its own gas for 45 years now imports nearly a third of it. Bogotรก then transitioned away from Colombian fossil fuels and toward somebody elseโs tankers. De la Espriella also inherits an electric grid dependent on hydropower during a drought. When reservoirs fall, no amount of climate rhetoric turns a turbine.
Dependence on imported energy was branded as virtue and sold to voters as moral progress in controlling the climate โ a physical impossibility. Colombians were told that carbon dioxide from fossil fuels is overheating the planet. Yet, claims of a climate crisis do not withstand scientific scrutiny. Satellite records show a measurably greener planet, and global harvests keep breaking records rather than collapsing. Even United Nations scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are more careful than its hyperbolic publicists.
It is not just Colombia that is waking up to this reality. In Argentina, President Javier Milei has publicly derided the Paris Agreement as a fraud and weighed pulling his country out entirely.
His government backs a $30 billion expansion in oil and natural gas development in Vaca Muerta. Floating liquefaction units are projected to produce annually 12 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas for export. A 437-kilometer pipeline to Punta Colorada will deliver its first crude exports this December, reaching 390,000 barrels a day by mid-2027.
Meanwhile, still importing 75% of its gas through American pipelines, Mexico has authorized further study of low-impact hydrofracturing in the Sabinas-Burro-Picachos and Burgos basins.
These Latin American governments have stopped confusing an โenvironmentalโ fad with physics. The region possesses abundant energy resources capable of supporting economic growth for decades while continuing to improve environmental performance through better technology and stronger operational standards.
For two decades, a global coalition of nonprofits, international bodies, and financial institutions stigmatized fossil fuel projects regardless of their environmental safeguards or economic necessity. That green shackle is finally breaking as nations choose prosperity and sovereign security over hollow promises of climate collectivists.
Vamos, Latin America.
Originally published at Town Hall, August 21, 2026.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelorโs in engineering from Anna University, India. He served as a research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia, Canada.
A slightly spooky new paperย shows annual rainfall patterns from a thousand years ago on the Yucatรกn Peninsula, Mexico. Itโs so detailed, they list every drought by year, including 13 unbroken years of drought from 929 to 942AD.ย Itโs a bit like someone unearthed the Maya Bureau of Meteorology records from a thousand years ago (except itโs better, because itโs a rock with no politics).
Bernard DUPONT: El Castillo Pyramid, western side โ Tulum Maya site QR Feb 2020.jpg
13 year megadrought during Medieval Warm Period may have finished off the Maya
A slightly spooky new paper shows annual rainfall patterns from a thousand years ago on the Yucatรกn Peninsula, Mexico. Itโs so detailed, they list every drought by year, including 13 unbroken years of drought from 929 to 942AD. Itโs a bit like someone unearthed the Maya Bureau of Meteorology records from a thousand years ago (except itโs better, because itโs a rock with no politics).
This is one of the highest-resolution tropical stalagmite records ever published. Each year the stalagmite grew by as much as a millimeter, allowing for a year by year analysis โ or indeed 12 datapoints within each year.
During this era of perfect CO2, for some reason that no climate model can explain, the poor sods in Maya suffered through extreme swings from wet to dry, stacked back-to-back. The climate was chaotic. Droughts were followed by floods. Itโs uncannily like โclimate extremesโ we are told man-made emissions are going to bring.
It is sobering to think the Maya civilization lasted nearly 3,700 years. At itโs peak it was thought there were around 5 million people, but more recent estimates with lidar mapping suggest there might have been as many as 10 or even 16 million people. The Maya civilization started around 2,000BC and peaked somewhere around 700AD before declining in โthe terminal collapse periodโ from 800AD-1000AD. Little pockets of the civilization lingered on for centuries until the Spanish conquest of 1697. Even today some 6 million people still speak Mayan languages.
The Southern lowlands (where this cave is) would never be re-urbanized after 1000AD. The megadroughts appear to be the coup de grace.
Stalagmite Tzab06-1 was obtained in 2006 from Grutas Tzabnah near Tecoh, Yucatรกn, Mexico (Fig. 1 and text S1). The cave is located near several large Classic Maya sites (most notably Chichรฉn Itzรก and many sites in the Puuc Region such as Uxmal) and experienced the same regional climate regime as the major Terminal Classic population centers in northwest Yucatรกn (29). The stalagmite exhibits visible laminations in the section that formed between ~870 and 1100 CE (see Materials and Methods and Fig. 2C). We interpret each lamina as a single year of deposition, which is supported by cyclical variations in ฮด18O and/or ฮด13C, reflecting seasonal differences in rainfall (30โ32) (see Materials and Methods and figs. S1 and S2). We constructed an age model using a floating layerโcounting chronology anchored to 15 U-Th disequilibrium ages (see Materials and Methods and Fig. 2).
โEven with the water management techniques that the Maya had, a drought that long would have had major impacts on society.โ
[ScienceDaily] Chemical evidence from a stalagmite in Mexico has revealed that the Classic Maya civilizationโs decline coincided with repeated severe wet-season droughts, including one that lasted 13 years. These prolonged droughts corresponded with halted monument construction and political disruption at key Maya sites, suggesting that climate stress played a major role in the collapse. The findings demonstrate how stalagmites offer unmatched precision for linking environmental change to historical events.
According to the information contained in the stalagmite, there were eight wet season droughts lasting for at least three years between 871 and 1021 CE. The longest drought of the period lasted for 13 years. Even with the water management techniques that the Maya had, a drought that long would have had major impacts on society.
The climate information contained in the stalagmite lines up with the dates inscribed by the Maya on their monuments. In the periods of prolonged and severe drought, date inscription at sites such as Chichรฉn Itzรก stopped entirely.
The growth hiatus mentioned in 1020AD was found in other studies and apparently so dry the stalagmites dramatically slowed down their growth. Just imagine, the whole region was in severe hydroclimate stress, even without any four-wheel drives, oil rigs, or coal plants.
In other words, no matter when or where you lived, a witchdoctor somewhere could say the climate was changing.
โฆ
As well as the stalagmite being a freakishly fast growing one, they also used multiple proxies (ฮดยนโธO, ฮดยนยณC, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca ratios, as well as the U-Th ratios to date the layers). They were able to line up the layers with other studies and also with carvings on monuments and other archeological finds. The researchers claim there is ยฑ6-year age uncertainty on the dating.
REFERENCE
Daniel H. James, Stacy A. Carolin, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Julie A. Hoggarth, Fernanda Lases-Hernรกndez, Erin A. Endsley, Jason H. Curtis, Christina D. Gallup, Susan Milbrath, John Nicolson, James Rolfe, Ola Kwiecien, Christopher J. Ottley, Alexander A. Iveson, James U. L. Baldini, Mark Brenner, Gideon M. Henderson, David A. Hodell. Classic Maya response to multiyear seasonal droughts in Northwest Yucatรกn, Mexico. Science Advances, 2025; 11 (33) DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adw7661
The stalagmite in question, called Tzab06-1, was obtained in 2006 from Grutas Tzabnah near Tecoh, Yucatรกn, Mexico
Mexico is another country which continues to increase emissions. Even their Paris NDC was explicit about this, as it pledged only to cut emissions from a theoretical Business as Usual scenario. The resulting targeted emissions in 2030 would be higher than they were in 2015!
While Miliband wants to lead us over the cliff, the rest of the world is just getting on as normal.
Mexico is another country which continues to increase emissions. Even their Paris NDC was explicit about this, as it pledged only to cut emissions from a theoretical Business as Usual scenario. The resulting targeted emissions in 2030 would be higher than they were in 2015!
Since then, Mexico has upped the reduction from 22% to 35%, but as Climate Action Tracker point out, they have also upped the BAU:
Mexicoโs climate policies continue to go backwards, as fossil fuel use is prioritised and climate-related policies and institutions dismantled. Mexicoโs updated 2030 target (NDC), submitted in November 2022 results in higher emission levels than the targets from 2016, breaching both agreements under the Paris Agreement and Mexican Law โ where governments committed to improve their targets over time. The updated NDC lacks transparency and disguises its lack of ambition by counting forests differently in the base and in the target year. Mexico will meet the unambitious target with already implemented policies as emissions continue to rise through 2030. With this update, the CATโs rating of Mexicoโs climate targets and action worsens from โHighly insufficientโ to โCritically insufficientโ.
While the new target includes a larger percentage reduction it still leads to higher emissions. The NDC update increases the percentage reduction of the unconditional target from 22% to 35% (30% with own resources and an additional 5% from agreed international support) by 2030 and from 36% to 40% conditional on additional international support. But the business-as-usual (BAU) baseline, against which the targets are defined, has been revised upwards. In addition, Mexico expects a higher contribution of emissions sinks in forests to achieving the target. Together this means that the new target can be met even if emissions excluding those of forestry are higher than what they could have been under the old target.
The 2022 NDC update replaces the 2020 update, which became invalid after a Mexican court found that it is less ambitious than the very first NDC of 2016 and therefore a violation of continuous progression of ambition. The 2022 update is less specific on the contribution of forestry to the target, which may make it more difficult to argue its ambition.
Mexico pursues a โgross-netโ approach, meaning it counts only emissions sources in its BAU, ignoring sinks from land use and forestry. However, the NDC does intend to use these sinks to achieve the target, highlighting that nature-based solutions are โcentralโ to achieving the targets. In 2019, reported sinks were almost 200 MtCO2e, or about a quarter of Mexicoโs emissions excl. land use, land use change and forestry. While technically allowed, this accounting approach has been criticised as in-transparent for over 20 years.
Mexicoโs 2022 NDC update removes the target to peak emissions in 2026 and does not mention any net zero nor other long-term targets.
The marvelous mysterious Monarch Butterfly is at it again: baffling lepidopterists โ a branch of entomology concerning the scientific study of moths and the two superfamilies of butterflies โ with questions they canโt answer.
The marvelous mysterious Monarch Butterfly is at it again: baffling lepidopterists โ a branch of entomology concerning the scientific study of moths and the two superfamilies of butterflies โ with questions they canโt answer.
The observational evidence is this:
It is clear that [Monarch] winter colonies in Mexico are declining, yet some recent studies suggest that summer breeding populations are relatively stable and similar to historical abundances.
Here they are speaking of the Eastern United States Monarch population โ the Monarch population that migrates from as far north as Canada every fall south to the mountains of central Mexico. If your are not already familiar with the mysterious nature of this phenomenon, read my primer on the Monarch Migration or any of my earlier Monarch essays here.
There exists a modern scientific controversy about the monarchs and their migration โ such a big hullabaloo that I have named it The Monarch Wars. The basis of the Monarch Wars is:
2) Other scientists, groups and interests oppose the listing of this nearly ubiquitous species as endangered โ showing evidence that it is not suffering population declines or fragmented populations.
3) There is a third view that proposes that the Monarch Migration itself, as a phenomenon, should be declared Endangered.
The evidence is unfortunately clear โ for all sides in the controversy.
How is this possible?
The latest study is:
Dramatic Recent Declines in the Size of Monarch Butterfly (Danaus plexippus) Roosts During Fall Migration [ full pre-print .pdf ]
by Andrew K. Davis, Jordan R. Croy and William E. Snyder out of the University of Georgia in Athens, GA, USA.
Their Abstract starts with this line:
โThe conservation status of monarch butterflies in North America is a topic of intense scrutiny and debate.โ
For several years I have been calling this The Monarch Wars.
Letโs look at the evidence once more:
โIt is clear that winter colonies in Mexico are decliningโ
Clearly winter colonies in Mexico are declining โ in the first 20 years of the record, there were some boom years and some low years, less than 5 hectares, but the entire two decades show much larger roosting populations. The most recent decade has had very low roosting numbers.
And Summer Populations?
The above image, from Crossley et al. (2022) published in Global Change Biology clearly shows that the summer population of Danaus plexippus, the Monarch Butterfly, seen as the vertical orange line, has not shown radical declines over the last two decades, but, if anything, shows a slight increase of about 0.7% per year. Not a big increase, but certainly not a sharp, dangerous or worrying decline.
[Note: The Mexico overwintering population graph covers three more years than the summer Population study. Those three years were boom years for the overwintering population.]
The most recent study, Davis et al. (2024) is about the sizes of Monarch roosts that they form during their migration south, when they stop for the night. Davis et al. say:
โObservations of far fewer overwintering monarch butterflies, alongside apparent rebounds during the summer breeding season, have led to heated debate whether monarchs are truly endangered. We used ~2600 citizen scientist observations of monarch โroostsโ โ mass aggregations of fall-migrating monarchs โ to assess whether they are struggling to reach Mexico.โ
And this is an important and interesting question. Are there plenty of monarchs in the summer which then fail to reach the overwintering grounds in Mexico, and if so, for what reasons?
Their plain language summary:
โPositive effects of a warming and greening flyway were overwhelmed by unexplained declines in roost size of up to 80%, increasing all along the path of their arduous southern migration.โ
They find that โa warming and greening flywayโ โ and feel free to label this CO2-enhanced atmosphere and maybe climate change โ had positive effects on the annual migration. Yet there remained โunexplained declines in [in during-migration] roost size of up to 80%โ, declines which increased along the southern route.
To this authorโs dismay, they conclude:
โThis suggests that to save monarchs, we should focus on avoiding well-meaning efforts such as planting non-native milkweeds that foster parasites, sicken monarchs, and disrupt migration.โ
I do not think that that conclusion is warranted or supported based on the evidence of the study. It is a valid hypothesis โ a possible explanation โ but certainly not strongly supported. Like all hypotheses, it is a guess, based on some data.
They are correct when they say โThis suggests that climate change might generally be benefiting monarch migration by creating milder flight conditions and enhancing nectar availability along the flyway (but see 24).โ
Ah, yes, there is a but. You can read the but here. It is a complex calculation of โenergy expenditureโ that might be found true of migrating monarch butterflies under warmer temperatures, not of real butterflies actually migrating, of course.
The reasoning of Davis et al. goes like this:
โThat is, while roost sizes were declining throughout the flyway, these declines grew increasingly severe further along the migration route. This latitudinal gradient in roost size declines would be consistent with increasing mortality during migration and/or monarchs increasingly abandoning migration as they move south. This apparent disruption of migration might be the missing puzzle piece that explains relatively stable summer populations in the Midwest and declining overwintering populations in Mexico.โ
Alas, Davis et al., despite being a very well done investigation, offers no definitive or actionable findings. โThen what is driving the clear, dramatic declines in roost size seen in these data? We can only speculate,โฆโ.
And speculate they do. While none of the speculations are new, they include:
1) Prevalence of the monarch parasite Ophryocystis elektroscirrha (โOEโ) which has increased over the last decade, some say โten-foldโ.
2) The widespread planting of non-native milkweeds such as Asclepias curassavica and Calotropis gigantea by homeowners and even land managers. Some feel that this leads to more parasitisation. There have been some studies that suggested that monarch caterpillars feeding on these species might suffer stunting or weakening. Or that the longer growing season for these species might lure the monarchs to remain north later into the Fall.
3) The raising and releasing thousands of captive-reared monarchs each year. Some studies have implied that captive bred monarchs are weaker or have reduced navigational ability. There are worries that interbreeding of captive and wild monarchs will harm the species as a whole.
4) Finally, year-round resident populations of monarchs appear to be increasingly common and growing along the western and southern edges of the species range. Vague worries about interbreeding of non-migrating monarchs and migrating monarchs and thus genetic dilution are included. This is the โmonarchs increasingly abandoning migration as they move southโ hypothesis. Another possibility is that more-and-more monarchs migrate to the South, find it perfectly suitable, and settle down there for the winters.
All, as in every single one, of the monarch butterflies found in northern regions, where winters are freezing and below, are the offspring of monarchs that have migrated north from overwintering somewhere warmer in the south. Thus, stable or even growing summer populations in the north seems inconsistent with very small numbers of monarchs overwintering in Mexico. Yet it is the case.
West Coast Monarchs
A similar, but more profound, situation was found with the West Coast monarch population in the winters of 2020-2021 and into the next year, 2021-2022:
You see, that recovery is simply biologically impossible. Thus a mangled version of the Sherlock Holmes quote can be applied: โWhen you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truthโ. For that recovery, which is a physical fact, we must eliminate the impossible and doing that requires that the monarchs were overwintering somewhere โ just not where they were expected and thus uncounted.
This is one of the speculative explanations for the mystery of the Eastern Population as well โ the monarchs may be overwintering in Mexico after all, just not at the usual or known locations where they are expected, thus failing to be counted.
Bottom Lines:
1) We simply donโt know how or why this situation is occurring: far fewer Monarchs overwintering in Mexico yet stable or even growing population in the summer in the north.
2) There are four or five good speculative answers, but none of them stand out or have stronger evidence. It is more probable that the situation is a combination of one or more of the suggested explanations; or the dreaded something else.
3) One thing is fairly certain now: the slight warming seen in continental North America over the last 20 years, of maybe 1.5 degrees F, commonly called climate change, is not the cause but rather more likely a mitigating factor benefiting the monarchs.
# # # # #
Authorโs Comment:
In my part of the United States, I saw very few monarchs this last summer.
I am fascinated by the evidence about monarchs and the growing realization that so much of it driven by a โSave the Monarchsโ bias. As in almost all fields of science, the desires of researchers lead directly to their findings. Those looking for disasters will find them, as has been the case with the monarchs. But those researchers are stymied by other evidence โ stable summer populations.
In science, the evidence should lead to a proper framing of the situation, which, if it is deemed undesirable, then the evidence should suggest solutions that will correct or mitigate the discovered causes of the undesired situation.
Jumping the gun with solutions to problems for which the causes are only suspected lead us on a merry chase and often make the original problem even worse.
For monarchs, I still favor planting native milkweeds in your gardens (private and public), discouraging mowing of highways verges and the edges and space between corn fields, and, of course, admission that we still donโt understand what is going on with the monarchs which should lead to more and better research.
PHD student Sanam Mahoozi asks whether we should all follow Mexicoโs example and elect scientist leaders like former German Chancellor Angela Merkel to guide us through the climate crisis.
PHD student Sanam Mahoozi asks whether we should all follow Mexicoโs example and elect scientist leaders like former German Chancellor Angela Merkel to guide us through the climate crisis.
Can Scientist Leaders Help Countries Fight Climate Change More Effectively?
Sanam Mahoozi Contributor Jun 29, 2024,01:33pm EDT Updated Jun 30, 2024, 02:21am EDT
In early June, Mexico made history by electing its first-ever female president, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, a scientist with a background in physics and advanced degrees in energy engineering.
Her victory has since sparked a discussion about whether leaders with scientific expertise can have a positive impact on pushing forward climate policies worldwide.
In the past, the combination has been a boon for environmental causes.
For example, Margaret Thatcher, the former UK Prime Minister, was a trained chemist who raised awareness about global warming in a powerful speech at the United Nations in 1989 back when a lot of people werenโt taking the issue that seriously.
Then there is Angela Merkel, the former Chancellor of Germany, who with a doctorate in quantum chemistry, played a significant role in advocating for the 2015 Paris Agreement.
โฆ
Letโs see what Rachel Kyte, professor of practice in climate policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford said about this topic in an interview with Forbes via email.
For women, โwe can look at a number of leaders who have a science background, if not climate science, who have been able to lead their countries into ambition on climate action.โ
โMargaret Thatcher and Angela Merkel come immediately to mind. They were able to ask questions of the scientists and understand its implications for action, unrelated to the ideological position of their parties,โ whether conservative, religious or liberal.
โฆ
Letโs see what Dr. Peter Gleick, member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, co-founder and Senior Fellow of the Pacific Institute said about this topic in an interview with Forbes via email.
Scientific knowledge isnโt an automatic guarantee of political competence. The disastrous mishandling of the Peter Ridd academic freedom case demonstrates that groups of scientists are just as prone to making bad decisions as anyone else.
Angela Merkel was also a political incompetent, in my opinion. She might have been a motivated advocate of green policies, but her green policies were largely responsible for Germanyโs energy crisis.ย Merkelโs 2011 decision to shut down Germanyโs nuclear reactorsย increased Germanyโs dependence on Russia.
here was plenty of warning Russia was an unreliable energy partner. President Trump tried to warn Germany about the consequences of its reckless energy policy in 2018, when Merkel was still in charge. The German diplomats laughed in Trumpโs face.
Margaret Thatcher is an interesting case. While it is true Thatcher had a big hand in promoting the climate issue in the early days, in her 2002 memoir, Statecraft: Strategies for a Changing World (New York: HarperCollins), she expressed dismay at how concern about climate change had been used as an excuse to promote global tyranny, and criticised exaggerated claims of scientific certainty. It is truly sad that greens who cite Thatcher as a right wing green leader consistently fail to provide a more complete picture of her views.
โฆ The doomstersโ favorite subject today is climate change. This has a number of attractions for them. First, the science is extremely obscure so they cannot easily be proved wrong. Second, we all have ideas about the weather: traditionally, the English on first acquaintance talk of little else.
Third, since clearly no plan to alter climate could be considered on anything but a global scale, it provides a marvelous excuse for worldwide, supra-national socialism. All this suggests a degree of calculation. Yet perhaps that is to miss half the point. Rather, as it was said of Hamlet that there was method in his madness, so one feels that in the case of some of the gloomier alarmists there is a large amount of madness in their method.
Indeed, the lack of any sense of proportion is what characterizes many pronouncements on the matter by otherwise sensible people. Thus President Clinton on a visit to China, which poses a serious strategic challenge to the US, confided to his host, President Jiang Zemin, that his greatest concern was the prospect that โyour people may get rich like our people, and instead of riding bicycles, they will drive automobiles, and the increase in greenhouse gases will make the planet more dangerous for all.โ
It would, though, be difficult to beat for apocalyptic hyperbole former Vice President Gore. Mr Gore believes: โThe cleavage in the modern world between mind and body, man and nature, has created a new kind of addiction: I believe that our civilisation is, in effect, addicted to the consumption of the earth itself.โ
And he warns: โUnless we find a way to dramatically change our civilisation and our way of thinking about the relationship between humankind and the earth, our children will inherit a wasteland.โ
But why pick on the Americans? Britainโs then Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook, has observed: โThere is no greater national duty than the defense of our shoreline. But the most immediate threat to it today is the encroaching sea.โ Britain has found, it seems, a worthy successor to King Canute.
The fact that seasoned politicians can say such ridiculous things โ and get away with it โ illustrates the degree to which the new dogma about climate change has swept through the left-of-centre governing classesโฆ.Read more:ย
In the original leak, Gleick did not clearly differentiate the fake โanonymous sourceโ document from the real documents he stole from Heartland.
Unbelievably, Gleick is still a member of the US National Academy of Sciences โ which in my opinion begs the question of what level of immorality or depravity is required to get someone ejected from that organisation.
I donโt know what kind of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo will make. But having a background as a scientist offers no reassurance that she will be a competent leader. The signs in my opinion are ominous โ in 2019, while serving as leader of Mexico City, Claudia introduced a raft of radical green policies. If Claudia turns out to be another green policy obsessive like Angela Merkel, Mexico could be about to experience some German style energy price pain.
In our recently released Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will continue to lead growth in U.S. natural gas trade as three LNG export projects currently under construction start operations and ramp up to full production by the end of 2025. We also forecast increased natural gas exports by pipeline, mainly to Mexico. In our STEO forecast, net exports of U.S. natural gas (exports minus imports) grow 6% to 13.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024 compared with 2023. In 2025, net exports increase another 20% to 16.4 Bcf/d.
In our recently released Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will continue to lead growth in U.S. natural gas trade as three LNG export projects currently under construction start operations and ramp up to full production by the end of 2025. We also forecast increased natural gas exports by pipeline, mainly to Mexico. In our STEO forecast, net exports of U.S. natural gas (exports minus imports) grow 6% to 13.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024 compared with 2023. In 2025, net exports increase another 20% to 16.4 Bcf/d.
We forecast that U.S. LNG exports increase 2% in 2024 to average 12.2 Bcf/d. In 2025, we forecast that LNG exports grow by an additional 18% (2.1 Bcf/d). We forecast U.S. natural gas exports by pipeline to grow by 3% (0.3 Bcf/d) in 2024 and by 4% in 2025. We expect pipeline imports to decline by 0.4 Bcf/d in 2024 and then increase slightly (0.1 Bcf/d) in 2025.
In 2024โ25, we forecast that existing U.S. LNG export facilities will run at similar utilization rates as in 2023. Annual maintenance typically occurs in the spring and fall, when global LNG demand is lower and temperatures are mild. In April and May 2024, we expect LNG exports to decline while two of the three trains at theย Freeport LNG export facility undergo annual maintenance.ย Later in 2024, we expect thatย Plaquemines LNG Phase Iย andย Corpus Christi Stage 3ย will begin LNG production and load first cargoes by the end of the year. In 2025, the developers ofย Golden Pass LNGย plan to place in service the first two trains of this new three-train LNG export facility.
We forecast an increase in U.S. natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico as several pipelines in MexicoโTula-Villa de Reyes, Tuxpan-Tula, and Cuxtal Phase II connecting to the Energรญa Mayakan pipeline on the Yucatรกn Peninsulaโbecome fully operational in 2024โ25. These pipelines started partial service in 2022โ23 but have not been operating at full capacity. Also, flows via the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan underwater pipeline are likely to increase slightly in 2024 when it begins delivering natural gas from the United States to Mexicoโs first LNG export project, Fast LNG Altamira.
U.S. natural gas pipeline imports from Canada remained relatively unchanged over the last two years (2022โ23), averaging 8.1 Bcf/d. We expect pipeline imports from Canada to remain a key supply source, particularly for the U.S. Midwest region during winter months.
Bidenโs imbecilic pause did not affect LNG facilities that are fully permitted and/or under construction. By the time the next president reverses this malfeasance next year, LNG exports will have climbed by about 2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) as new facilities come online. Projects currently under construction will add enough capacity (~17 Bcf/d) to more than double the current export volume (~12 Bcf/d).
At worst, the moronic pause in Department of Energy (DOE) permitting will delay final investment decisions (FID) for about 13 Bcf/d of capacity additions. 7 Bcf/d of that total have already been approved by FERC.
FERC is the agency that approves the construction of LNG facilities. DOE approves permits to export LNG to nations that do not have free trade agreements (FTA) with the US.
An Amazingly โFutile and Stupid Gestureโ
Sixteen states have sued the Biden administration over this unlawful pause in LNG export permitting:
March 21, 2024 | Press Release
Attorยญney Genยญerยญal Ken Paxยญton Sues Biden to Stop Unlawยญful Ban on LNG Exports
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has filed suit to block the Biden Administrationโs unlawful and indefinite ban on approving applications to export liquified natural gas (โLNGโ) that the Department of Energy itself has already acknowledged has โno factual or legal basis.โ
Texas, along with Louisiana and fourteen other states, has filed a lawsuit to void the unconstitutional LNG export ban, which ignores the Natural Gas Actโs presumption in favor of exports, decades of Department of Energy policy, and State and private reliance on exports. Texas is the nationโs leading producer of both crude oil and natural gas. The Biden Administrationโs ban stands to harm the Texas economy and the millions who rely on Texas energy.
โBidenโs unilateral decree disregards statutory mandates, flouts the legal process, upends the oil and gas industry, disrupts the Texas economy, and subverts our constitutional structure,โ said Attorney General Paxton. โThe ban will drive billions of dollars in investment away from Texas, hinder our ability to maximize revenue for public schools, force Texas producers to flare excess natural gas instead of taking it to market, and annihilate critical jobs. I will not stand by while Biden attacks Texas.โ
Reporting has also unveiled other possible motivations behind the unexplained LNG Export Ban. For example, White House officials have acknowledged that โone significant reason for theโ LNG Export Ban โwas to address concerns of young and climate-focused voters,โ whom โthe administration needs . . . in the fall.โ R. Rapier, How An American LNG Export Pause Could Increase Global Carbon Emissions, Forbes (Jan. 29, 2024), https://perma.cc/3WQR-84HK. The โhope is that announcing this pause will energize them to vote for Biden in the November election.โ Id.
Other reporting describes President Bidenโs climate envoy, John Podesta, as an architect of the LNG Export Ban, and notes that Podestaโs brother is a lobbyist for foreign interestsโ including Russian LNG oligarchsโwho stand to benefit significantly from the Ban. See A. Goodman, John Podesta Was Behind Bidenโs Decision To Pause Natural Gas Exports. His Lobbyist Brother Stands To Benefit, Wash. Free Beacon (Feb. 15, 2024), https://perma.cc/P3JW-AZSA.
BYD, Chinaโs largest EV auto maker, which recently surpassed Tesla as the worldโs biggest seller of electric vehicles, isย reviewing potential locations for a plantย in Mexico that would allow it to bring its low-cost electric vehicles into the United States.
Chinaโs BYD, the worldโs largest EV maker, is scoping out Mexico, where labor costs are low, to locate a new EV plant as a backdoor manufacturing hub for their entrance into the U.S. market.
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Cars imported directly into the United States from China are assessed a 27.5 percent tariff, while those from Mexico are assessed at most a 2.5 percent tariff.
3
American manufacturers are concerned because China can manufacture cars at a much lower cost as it dominates and controls the EV energy supply chain, including the processing of necessary minerals.
4
BYD currently sells most of its vehicles domestically in China but is making inroads by offshoring manufacturing in obliging countries.
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The U.S. EV market is ripe due to Bidenโs strident push for electric vehicles including subsidies and mandates designed to force people out of internal combustion vehicles.
BYD, Chinaโs largest EV auto maker, which recently surpassed Tesla as the worldโs biggest seller of electric vehicles, is reviewing potential locations for a plant in Mexico that would allow it to bring its low-cost electric vehicles into the United States. Mexico offers close proximity to U.S. markets, relatively low labor costs and the opportunity to take advantage of low or zero tariffs on made-in-Mexico vehicles. Some of the locations BYD is considering are near the U.S. border. At least a dozen Chinese electric-car component suppliers have also announced new factories or added to their existing investments in Mexico in recent years. They are responding to a U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal that encourages carmakers in North America to use locally sourced materials.
BYD is looking to expand globally as it has an excess domestic EV inventory. CEOs at rival automakers have warned about the potential threat from China, with some suggesting the need for more government action to avert such competition in the United States as Chinese automakers have a big cost advantage in the electric vehicle market with Chinaโs dominance of the battery supply chain and processing of essential minerals. Through engineering, government subsidies and lower labor costs, BYD and other China-based EV makers have been able to entice customers with stylish and technologically advanced electric vehicles at attractive prices. If China can lock buyers into electric vehicles dependent upon its dominant supply chains, it would strengthen its position as the worldโs leading car manufacturer.
BYDโs low-price electric vehicles have gained traction with buyers in places such as Europe and Southeast Asia. Europe, where Chinese EV imports are strong due to their lower price and Europeโs net zero carbon goals, is conducting an investigation into whether China provided subsidies to the industry unfairly, making it more difficult for European EV carmakers to compete. The investigation could result in new tariffs if EU officials find the Chinese companies are receiving unfair subsidies. The Biden administration is monitoring Chinese investment in Mexico amid concerns Chinese businesses could take advantage of North American free-trade agreement rules.
Carlos Tavares, chief executive of Chrysler-parent Stellantis, likened Chinaโs potential entry in the United States to the arrival of the Japanese automakers in the 1970s and South Korean firms in the 1990s, calling their expansion as โvery Powerful.โ Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk also expressed similar concerns, saying the Chinese companies have already had significant success outside of China and are now the โmost competitiveโ in the world.
Currently, Chinese-built electric vehicles are subject to a 27.5 percent tariff when imported into the United States that is composed of a 2.5 percent tariff that generally applies to imported cars plus an additional 25 percent tariff on Chinese-made cars that was introduced by the Trump administration in 2018. The Biden administration is debating whether to raise tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles further, and the Inflation Reduction Act limits eligibility for a $7,500 consumer tax credit for cars built with batteries made by Chinese companies.
In comparison, cars made at a Chinese-owned factory in Mexico would only be faced with the 2.5 percent tariff upon entering the United States and could possibly pay no tariff if they met stringent standards for local content under the U.S.-Canada-Mexico Agreement adopted in 2020.
Executives at Toyota estimated that Chinese companies had a 25 percent to 30 percent cost advantage over global competitors when manufacturing electric vehiclesโmore than enough to overcome the small 2.5-percent U.S. tariff. Pushing EV adoption too quickly would serve, however, as an invitation for Chinese EV companies including BYD, Geely and NIO to enter rigorously into the U.S. EV market. President Biden has a goal of electric vehicles making up 50 percent of new car sales by 2030, and his EPA and Department of Transportation have proposed rules that would effectively force electric vehicles to make up two-thirds of new car sales in 2032. The Biden Administration is pushing electric vehicles upon manufacturers and consumers and enticing them with subsidies for vehicles and charging stations.
BYD sees other potential uses for the plant in Mexico, including using it as an export hub for shipping cars to South America or sending batteries and other car parts to the United States. In China, BYD makes many EV parts in-house, including its EV batteries, to reduce costsโadvantages it may or may not be able to replicate in Mexico. In North America, the company currently sells electric buses and trucks made at its location in Lancaster, California.
Conclusion
Chinese companies are looking into building EV car factories in Mexico to take advantage of the Mexico-U.S.-Canada trade agreement and avoid hefty tariffs on imports of electric vehicles coming directly from China. In particular, BYD, Chinaโs largest EV automaker that recently surpassed Tesla in sales, is looking at locations in Mexico near the U.S. border. Chinese companies have a 25 to 30 percent cost advantage over U.S. competitors because of dominance in the EV battery supply chain and processing of critical minerals as well as low-cost labor and attractive energy prices. CEOs of U.S. automakers are worried that China could make a serious dent in the EV market as Japan and South Korea have done in the conventional auto market previously. With onerous proposed EV rules by Biden administration agencies on U.S. carmakers, the competition could be disastrous for legacy car makers, who areย currently losing vast sumsย on meeting Bidenโs EV goals.
The large and brilliantly-colored monarch butterfly is among the most easily recognizable of the butterfly species that call North America home. They have two sets of wings and a wingspan of three to four inches (7 to 10 centimeters). Their wings are a deep orange with black borders and veins, and white spots along the edges. The underside of the wings is pale orange.ย
It is time for the Great Journey South for the Monarch butterflies of North America. The super-generation of monarchs, who are the great-great-grandchildren of the monarchs that left overwintering sanctuaries along the coast of California in the United States and the Monarch Biosphere Reserve in central Mexico last spring, are on the move and have almost completed their incredible journey. The orange arrows on the continental map show the direction of travel in the fall of the year. The yellow areas are where monarchs are traveling from, an area extending all the way north into Canada. The majority of the monarch east of the Rocky Mountains travel south and west to arrive at the very geographically small area of the Monarch Biosphere Reserve in south-central Mexico. Yet there is some small population that stays in southern Florida and along the Gulf Coast, breeding and living as they do throughout the year.
West of the continental divide, some, but not all, of the monarchs gather in roosts along the coast of California, from San Luis Obispo north to Big Sur country. Some of the western population has been found traveling south to the Mexican Biosphere Reserve. And some of the western population doesnโt migrate anywhere at all, but just keeps in living in southern-most California.
For those curious as to what exactly happens to signal monarchs to start the migration, it is reported that when โthe solar angle at solar noon (SASN) drops below 57 degrees, the date at each latitudeโ is โ when we can first expect to see directional flight indicative of the migration.โ [ source ]
So, like many other things, itโs the Sun.
The Mexican agency that does the Monarch count in Mexico, in conjunction with the World Wildlife Federation, produces the data for this chart for monarch populations overwintering 2022-2023. There are so many butterflies, all bunched together, that an actual count is impossible, so they produce a figure that is in hectares of trees covered with monarchs, โestimates range from 10 to 50 million monarchs per hectareโ.
And for the winter just past (2022-2023)? 2.21 hectares (5.5 acres) or between 22 million to 110 million monarch butterflies. Far better than the worst year on record (2013-2014) which had only 0.67 hectares (1.6 acres).
The Master of All Things Monarch, Chip Taylor, founder of Monarch Watch recently published two blog posts on the โwhys and whereforesโ of the monarch butterfly:
If you are interested in monarchs and their story, the two blog posts above are required reading.
This yearโs southern migration is reporting good news, but it is truly too early to tell how many butterflies will make it to the monarch biosphere.ย The dependencies are weather and feeding opportunities: includes storms, local droughts (which reduce nectar sources), high adverse winds, heavy rains, etc.ย Texas reports seeing lots of monarchs:
The yellow circles show where the monarchs are bunching upโฆ.the Texas bunch really moves down through Mexico, but there are few reporting observers there. The Southern California group (including some of those in Southern Arizona) will either 1) move a little more north along the coast until they are above San Luis Obispo and roost for the winter, or 2) move a bit south of Los Angeles and spend the winter breeding as normal. We can also see the grouping in southern Florida, where monarchs can happily live all year long.
In the west, there was good news this past spring:
While totals were down, it is reported that this was the result of winter storms in California (which, you will recall, ended Californiaโs long-term drought). You should ignore the dim grey line, it is the number of sites monitored and not a trend line of monarch population. Still, the count reveals that the stunning, unbelievable recovery from 2020-2021โs feared near-extinction event was not just a fluke but a strong resurgence in overall population. The Xerces Society, for reasons I cannot fathom, reports the above chart as bad news.
There will be some more up-to-date news about monarchs in the western population in the Thanksgiving count, which will run from 11/11/23 โ 12/3/23, and the New Yearโs count will run from 12/23/23 โ 1/7/24. Readers living out west can participate: https://westernmonarchcount.org/
We usually only see information coming out of Mexico well after the New Year.
I am looking forward to good news.
# # #
Authors Comment:
I have been following this topic for years and you can read my other essays here.
I write about monarchs just because I like them and am fascinated by their migration behavior as a species โ the reasons for which remain a mystery.
If you are interested, there are ways in which you can help maintain and improve monarch populations such as planting native milkweeds in your garden and urging states, counties and cities not to mow roadsides where milkweeds flourish.
The World Meteorological Organization clearly defines that singleย weather events are not the same as climate change. There has been no long-term trend in greater numbers of or more severe storms striking this area during the past few decades that would suggest climate change was causing an issue.
Image: The shoreline of El Bosque, showing houses destroyed by the eroding beach. Source: The Guardian/Gustavo Graf
In an October 24 Amnesty International News article, titled โWe may be the first people displaced by climate change in Mexico, but we wonโt be the last,โ Guadalupe Cobos Pacheco claims that the tiny seaside fishing town he lives in, the El Bosque community in Tabasco, Mexico, is being overwhelmed by sea level rise driven by climate change. Data and historical imagery show this to be false. Other factors, such as choice of building location, prevailing ocean waves, and beach erosion are the cause.
Pacheco writes:
Before climate change, our daily routine was to go fishing and sell our produce. Like any community, we celebrated our customs and traditions. We celebrated important dates such as Christmas, New Year or the Day of the Dead. We heard about climate change on television, but we never thought it would destroy our community. We could sleep easy.
Since 2019, our lives have completely changed. Now our lives revolve around climate change. That year, a storm swept away the first row of homes, and rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and northerly winds have continued to destroy our community. Our only option now is to leave.
The most important point that Pacheco fails to recognize in his own writing is that one storm in 2019 is not the same as climate change. The World Meteorological Organization clearly defines that single weather events are not the same as climate change. There has been no long-term trend in greater numbers of or more severe storms striking this area during the past few decades that would suggest climate change was causing an issue.
Rather than climate change, Pacheco should blame simple beach mechanics for what is happening at the El Bosque community in Tabasco.
El Bosque is built on a peninsular sand bar, jutting into the ocean. Sandbars are formed from the combination of erosion and deposition processes, which are driven by wave action. That particular section of beach is steeply sloping into the sea, and it is well known that a steeply sloping shore will cause waves to break closer to shore, causing more erosion than on a gently sloping shore.
The storm in 2019 started the process of beach scouring, making the slope steeper, and accelerating the process.
But since 2019, residents of El Bosque say a series of severe weather fronts, bringing heavy rain and powerful winds, have been eroding the shoreline. As the ocean has encroached, more than 60 homes in the village have been destroyed by the waves.
With a steeper beach slope, additional storms have more impact than they have had in the past. Since 2019, the shoreline has eroded faster. This is illustrated in Figures 1 and 2 below.
Figure 1, from the study cited above, Coastlines for El Bosque beach, Tabasco. The triangle represents the position of the old sampling and the circle represents the recent sampling.
In Figure 1, note that on the south side of the peninsula, in the cove area, there is essentially no beach erosion, or significant growth through deposition, over time. This suggests that the prevailing wave action comes from the north, driven by weather systems.
Figure 2, from Google Earth, shows satellite imagery from February 2023 of the peninsular sand bar that El Bosque is built on. Note that in this image, strong waves are present coming from the northwest, this creates a wave scouring action that rips sand from the beach and deposits it elsewhere, in the direction of the waves. The beach to the far right, as illustrated in Figure 1, is actually growing, as indicated by the black line beach profile.
Figure 2. Google Earth image of the sandbar peninsula which the town of El Bosque is built on. Annotations by A. Watts.
This is not climate change, climate change does not reach out to affect a small section of beach, shrinking one part, and building up another less than one mile away. This is simple and well-known beach mechanics of sand bars. It is established by ocean science that sandbars shift regularly over time.
The article also claims, โRising sea levels caused by climate change have swept away more than 200 meters of coastline here, destroying more than 50 homes.โ
Examining the data for sea level rise in the region, one finds no supporting evidence for that claim. In fact, there is no data available for the last 30 years at all from the two closest tide gauges atย Ciudad del Carmenย orย Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. This is shown in Figure 3 below:
Figure 3: Map showing the two closest tide gauge stations on either side of El Basque, Mexico and the data as plotted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Tides and Currents website, with annotations and compositing by A. Watts
Without such data, it is impossible to honestly claim that sea levels are rising, much less rising at an unusual, global warming accelerated rate.
Looking at the latest available data, however, one can, playing Devilโs advocate, assume that the trends indicated at those two stations has continued rising unchanged since the last readings were available around 1988. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Tides and Currents website has this to say about the data at each station:
Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico: The relative sea level trend is 3.6 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.94 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1956 to 1988 which is equivalent to a change of 1.18 feet in 100 years.
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico: The relative sea level trend is 2.86 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 1.06 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1952 to 1987 which is equivalent to a change of 0.94 feet in 100 years.
The 100 year sea level rise between the two stations averages out to 1.06 feet per century (1.18 + 0.94 /2 ). For the 35 years since the last data available in 1988, that would be 0.37 feet or 4.45 inches. This is near or well below the average sea level rise that the IPCC projects to occur over the 21st century, so unless the rates of rise have increased dramatically, climate change isnโt causing much sea level rise at El Bosque. In addition, the small estimated amount of rise certainly cannot account for the beach erosion and loss that has happened there. It is far below the average daily tidal variation, which can vary as much as 1.77 feet in a single day according to tide tables for Ciudad del Carmen.
Clearly, the claims of climate driven sea level rise are unsupportable. The likely cause of the recent sandbar erosion is the aforementioned wave driven beach erosion, triggered by the 2019 storm which increased the slope of the beach, making it even more susceptible to ocean storms and waves.
Tragically, the homes of El Bosque were built on the edge of the shifting sandbar. The residents were likely unaware of the dangers of building on sands which shift with such ease and passing storms. With the mainstream media blaming climate change for every natural event that can be portrayed as out of the ordinary, it unsurprising Pacheco has mistakenly blamed his villageโs plight on climate change. There areย several stories in the media recentlyย making the same claim.
The incompetence of the media and NGOs, like Amnesty International News, in doing even the most basic investigation is disturbing and misleading.
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and currently does daily radio forecasts. He has created weather graphics presentation systems for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He operates the most viewed website in the world on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.
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