Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
Germany faces elevated risks of tight natural gas supplies this winter, with historically low storage levels amplifying dependence on expensive gas- fired generation to back up intermittent wind and solar, while grid expansion and reserve capacity add major ongoing costs.
As of gas day 22 October 2026 (latest consistent data from GIE AGSI+), Germany’s gas storage fill level is among the lowest in Europe.
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Germany faces elevated risks of tight natural gas supplies this winter, with historically low storage levels amplifying dependence on expensive gas- fired generation to back up intermittent wind and solar, while grid expansion and reserve capacity add major ongoing costs.
Gas storage stood at around 60- 61% full in mid- to- late October 2026 (about 149- 151 TWh), well below prior years (e.g., ~75% at the same point in 2025) and among the lowest levels for the season on record.
The Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) assesses the near- term risk of a physical shortage as low, citing stable pipeline imports (notably from Norway), LNG terminals, and diversified supplies.
However, industry groups and analysts note limited buffer for a cold winter, high demand spikes, or import disruptions; storage theoretically covers roughly six weeks under certain scenarios, with deliverability constraints possible.
Cold weather combined with weaker wind output in mid- to- late October drove gas- fired power generation to a nine- month high (averaging >10 GW, peaking near 14 GW in the evening), helping meet power demand near 60 GW. Gas and coal together covered a substantial share of demand during these periods.
European gas prices have risen sharply (TTF near or above levels several times higher than the prior year in some reports), pushing electricity prices higher as gas plants often set the marginal price in low- renewable hours. This illustrates the system’s reliance on flexible (but costly) natural gas to compensate when wind and solar underperform, a structural feature of Germany’s post- nuclear, high- renewables mix.
Authorities are responding with interventions:
State- owned SEFE ordered to procure and store an extra 8 TWh by mid-December.
Trading Hub Europe awarded contracts worth nearly €245 million for additional standby supplies (including special tenders for February- March 2027).
Plans for a strategic national gas reserve of ~24 TWh (to cover scenarios such as major import failures for 10- 40 days), to replace mandatory storage filling targets after March 2027. Estimated costs: hundreds of millions of euros annually (potentially up to ~€3 billion over ten years in some projections), financed via a levy on gas customers.
On the power side, the Federal Network Agency confirmed network reserve (Netzreserve) needs of about 7.4 GW for winter 2026/27 (and higher for later periods), partly covered by domestic plants and the rest from abroad.
These reserve power plants exist to stabilize the grid via redispatch when transmission constraints or generation shortfalls arise; their maintenance and operation represent ongoing multi- billion -euro system costs.
Grid expansion remains heavily delayed: of planned high-voltage lines, thousands of kilometers are still missing (some projects 5- 10 and more years behind original timelines, such as key north- south HVDC links).
Recent progress includes reinforcement of existing corridors (e.g., Grafenrheinfeld- Großgartach by TransnetBW and TenneT, boosting capacity), but major new lines are not expected until late 2026–2028 or later. This lag increases reliance on local flexible generation (including gas) and costly redispatch.
In short, low storage makes import and weather risks more visible; expensive gas bridges renewable gaps in real time; and both reserve capacity and overdue grid build- out impose large, continuing costs on the system. Official assessments currently see supply as manageable under normal conditions, but a harsh winter or further external shocks would test resilience and keep prices elevated.
As of 22- 24 October 2026, Germany’s natural gas storage is approximately 61.1- 61.2% full (around 151 TWh of working gas out of a total capacity of about 247 TWh).
Comparison to last year (2025)
On the same date in 2025 (around 21- 22 October), the fill level was about 75.4%.
This year’s level is roughly 14 percentage points lower than last year.
The current level is also well below typical historical values for late October (often in the 80- 90 and more % range in recent non- crisis years) and under the legal target of ~80% by 1 November for most facilities.
The Federal Network Agency continues to describe overall supply security as guaranteed, based on ongoing imports, though the lower buffer increases sensitivity to cold weather or supply disruptions.
As of gas day 22 October 2026 (latest consistent data from GIE AGSI+), Germany’s gas storage fill level is among the lowest in Europe.
Key comparisons
EU aggregate: ~74.6% full (≈845 TWh of ~1,132 TWh capacity). This is about 8 percentage points below the same date in 2025 (~82.8–82.9%) and well below the typical five- year average for late October (around 89%).
Germany stands out as one of the weakest performers:
Germany: 61.1- 61.2% (≈151 TWh of ~247 TWh capacity), roughly 13- 14 points below the EU average and far below its own historical levels for this time of year.
Selected other countries (approximate levels around 22 October 2026)
Country
Fill level
Notes
Poland
~98.9%
Highest among major storers; near or above historical norms
Portugal
~95.5%
Very high
Italy
~89.8- 90%
Strong; one of the best among large consumers
France
~87.1- 87%
Solid, though slightly below recent years
Denmark
~84.9%
High
Spain
~79%
Moderately high
Hungary / Czechia
~77- 78%
Around or slightly above EU average
Austria
~68.5%
Below EU average
Belgium
~66%
Below average
Netherlands
~65%
Below EU average (similar challenges to Germany)
Slovakia
~55%
Lower
Latvia
~50%
Among the lowest
Ukraine (non-EU)
~37%
Significantly lower
Summary: Germany ranks near the bottom among EU countries with significant storage capacity (roughly 15th of 18 reported).
Countries in Southern and Eastern Europe (Italy, France, Poland, Portugal) are generally much better filled.
Northwestern neighbors like the Netherlands and Austria are also below the EU average but still higher than Germany.
The overall European buffer is thinner than last year and historical norms heading into winter, with Germany contributing a large share of the shortfall due to its large storage capacity.
Data is primarily from GIE AGSI+ and can see minor daily revisions.
There are 647 Pages 2k proxies, so this is a big job. This reconstruction is prominently displayed and used in the IPCC AR6 report (IPCC, 2021, pp. 211, 432) so it is worth the time to investigate it. Their proxies can be downloaded as one R data file (RData format) from here. This post will just cover six of the Greenland ice core proxies, but the full ensemble median Pages 2k global temperature reconstruction.
Figure 1 resembles the well-known “hockey stick” reconstruction (Mann et al., 1998), which has been the subject of substantial methodological criticism regarding proxy selection, principal-component methodology, and uncertainty estimation.
I’m reviewing the Pages 2k temperature proxies one-by-one as I once reviewed Marcott’s proxies (May, 2018). There are 647 Pages 2k proxies, so this is a big job. This reconstruction is prominently displayed and used in the IPCC AR6 report (IPCC, 2021, pp. 211, 432) so it is worth the time to investigate it. Their proxies can be downloaded as one R data file (RData format) from here. This post will just cover six of the Greenland ice core proxies, but the full ensemble median Pages 2k global temperature reconstruction is shown in figure 1.
Figure 1. The full ensemble Pages 2k ensemble median, with uncertainty (blue shading), and the instrumental era global temperature as a heavy blue line. This is a plot of global mean temperature anomalies in °C from the1961-1990 May-April annual mean. Data source: (Pages 2K, 2017).
Figure 1 resembles the well-known “hockey stick” reconstruction (Mann et al., 1998), which has been the subject of substantial methodological criticism regarding proxy selection, principal-component methodology, and uncertainty estimation. It was featured prominently in the third report or “TAR” (IPCC, 2001). We will not get into the problems with the previous hockey stick here, they are well covered by Steve McIntyre (McIntyre, 2011), (McIntyre & McKitrick, 2005), (Wegman et al., 2010), and Andrew Montford (Montford, 2010).
Pages 2k Statistical Methods
Some of the problems with figure 1 are statistical and similar to the problems with Mann’s hockey stick. This post is about selected and well-known Greenland ice core proxies and the technical problems using them to compute temperatures over the past 2,000 years, but it is worthwhile to briefly list the statistical problems and provide references for more details.
The Pages 2k consortium uses seven different temperature reconstruction methods, including principal component regression, arguing that by using multiple methods and getting broadly similar results, confidence in the outcome is increased (Pages2K, 2019). However, if all seven methods are fed the same data and calibrated to the same instrumental data from ~1850 to 2014, agreement among the methods is not independent evidence nor surprising. The real problem is the calibration period is short, only about 150 to 170 years and it lies at the end of the proxy records. This is the same problem Mann had, calibration points at only one end assume that proxy sensitivity to temperature has not changed over the past 2,000 years, which is unlikely.
In addition, 392 of the 647 proxies are tree-ring proxies. I’ll deal with the problems with using tree rings as temperature proxies in another post, but for now just remember that tree ring records are detrended, which “results in a loss of multi-century variance” (Briffa et al., 1998b). This is the “segment-length curse” (Cook et al., 1995), which means that recoverable climatic information can be limited to the lengths of the individual tree-ring series used to build a reconstruction. The Pages 2k team tries to get around this by using “Regional Curve Standardization” (Esper et al., 2003), but in order for this to work properly all trees in the chosen standardization region must belong to the same “biological growth” population, something that cannot be verified 2,000 years ago, or even several hundred years ago. “This problem still remains largely unsolved.” (Cook et al., 1995)
The Pages 2k database paper (Pages 2K, 2017) admits that less than half of the proxies they studied correlated with HadCRUT4.2 over the instrumental period (1850-2014). Proxy records that did not significantly correlate with instrumental era measurements were rejected (Pages 2K, 2017) & (Pages2k, 2013). Screening proxies based on correlations during the short modern calibration interval may preferentially retain proxies that share characteristics of the late twentieth-century climate trend, potentially introducing selection bias. This selection bias can have the effect of forcing a hockey stick shape (Wegman et al., 2010). Further, the use of principal components, and some other dimensionality reduction techniques can cause similar problems. Principal component methods reduce many proxy series into a smaller number of composite indices. Depending on preprocessing choices and network composition, these methods may emphasize certain patterns of variability (such as modern warming) while suppressing others.
Pages 2k is attempting to produce a global mean temperature, but their spatial proxy coverage is uneven, even sparse in the Southern Hemisphere. Overall, their methodology is overly complicated and as methodological complexity increases, transparency decreases.
Pages 2k is not a simple repeat of Mann 1998, but its use of multiple statistical methods does not automatically eliminate shared biases, especially if all non-correlating proxies in the very short calibration period (~1850-2014) are rejected. If all methods use the same proxy network, the same calibration period, and similar assumptions about proxy stationarity, then agreement among methods is not proof that the reconstruction is correct. “Proxy stationarity” is the assumption that the relationship between the proxy and the target variable observed in the calibration period remains constant over time. For a good discussion of some of the problems with Pages 2k, see Steve McIntyre’s South American proxies, North American tree ring proxies, and Antarctic proxies.
Greenland
The main goal of this post is to help the reader appreciate why proxy temperatures are uncertain, even though ice core proxies are probably the best temperature proxies. A “proxy” can be a singleton, for example a single ice core, or a small region “reconstruction” or “aggregate” based on multiple cores from the same area that have been carefully correlated. Thus, the term is somewhat vague. In this post we will use “proxy” as synonymous with a small region reconstruction, since many ice core records are constructed from multiple cores taken in a small area.
The Pages 2k dataset contains six Vinther proxies (Vinther et al., 2009) from the Agassiz area in northeastern Canada and Greenland that we will focus on here. They are mapped in figure 2 and all were used in the Pages 2k final global reconstruction.
Figure 2. The Pages 2k Greenland ice core proxy locations. Some of these locations have multiple cores. Also shown is the city of Nuuk, which is a central location for the SW Greenland temperature record (Vinther et al., 2006). The box shows the NOAA GlobalTemp grid cell that contains Nuuk. The numbers below the site names are the elevations in meters. The Agassiz ice cap is on Ellesmere Island, Canada.
The Vinther Greenland proxies are well studied and have been used to make a Greenland temperature reconstruction that, in my opinion, is the best. This is the Vinther 2009 (Vinther et al., 2009) reconstruction shown alongside the Rosenthal Makassar Strait reconstruction in figure 3. In this post we will treat the Vinther 2009 reconstruction as the ideal for Greenland.
Figure 3. The Vinther Greenland reconstruction compared to the Rosenthal Indonesian Makassar Strait reconstruction.
The two reconstructions shown in figure 3, Vinther’s 2009 Greenland reconstruction (the orange line) and Rosenthal’s 500-meter depth Makassar Strait reconstruction (Rosenthal et al., 2013) of the North Pacific SSTs (black line) are high-quality and have high temporal resolution (~20 years). They are also 9,500 miles apart.
Vinther’s 2009 Greenland Reconstruction
In 2009, Bo Vinther published a now-classic paper that explains a lot of problems with Greenland ice-core proxies and his solution for some of them. The oxygen-18 (“18O”) to oxygen-16 (“16O”) ratio from ice cores used in climate studies is a comparison of the measured ratio to the VSMOW2 standard ratio in ‰ (per thousand) difference. The standard is conceptually based on the mean seawater 18O /16O ratio. In reality, VSMOW2 is comprised of a mixture of lake water samples and is formulated to match the original seawater standard (SMOW) developed by Harmon Craig in the 1960s (Craig, 1961).
Vinther recognized that the 18O /16O ratio (or more simply, δ18O) was not simply a function of temperature, but also a function of the elevation of snow deposition, which varies substantially over time as a result of tectonic changes and the rate of snow deposition and glacier melting or movement. In figure 2 the current elevation is posted at each proxy site. Vinther recognized that the δ18O records from the Agassiz and Renland sites are similar, and dissimilar to the other sites. The four Agassiz cores are compared to the Renland core and the NCDC high resolution versions of the proxy records in figure 4.
Figure 4. The left graph contains all the δ18O records for the Agassiz cores (various shades of red and the Renland core (in blue). They are shown in their original 20-year resolution form. The NCDC one-year Agassiz composite record and the NCDC 5-year Renland record are shown in gray. On the right, the difference between A77 (the lower curve in the left-hand plot) and the other three Agassiz cores is plotted. Data sources: Vinther and NCDC.
The Agassiz A77 core is over two kilometers from the other three Agassiz cores and down slope from them, as a result its δ18O record is offset 1-1.5 ‰ negative as shown in the left graph in figure 4. This is likely due to scouring of winter snow off the Agassiz dome and ridge, where the other three cores are located, and the deposition of excess winter snow on the A77 site (Fisher et al., 1995) & (Fisher et al., 1983). This causes the mean annual δ18O to be lower at A77, a systematic seasonal effect. The plot of the offsets in the right-hand graph supports this idea, the offsets are similar and they became more negative in the Little Ice Age when the winters were colder, that is the summer/winter difference was more extreme in the Little Ice Age. This was a factor in the increased storminess observed in the Little Ice Age (Behringer, 2010), (Parker, 2012) & (Costas et al., 2016).
Unlike the ice cores taken deep into the Greenland ice sheet, the smaller Agassiz and Renland icecaps have reasonably accurate elevation histories available and their δ18O records can be corrected. Once this was done, they were very similar even though the sites are 1,500 km apart and they are on opposite sides of the Greenland Ice Sheet (Vinther et al., 2009). Vinther’s corrected δ18O Greenland temperature reconstruction is shown in figure 3 with the orange line.
Converting δ18O to ΔT
Creating an accurate and defensible temperature anomaly (ΔT) from ice core δ18O is challenging. The list of things that affect ice core δ18O besides temperature is long, it includes elevation, wind-blown snow, topography, and location. There are two methods, one is to correlate δ18O to local instrumental temperatures when they are available and fit an ordinary least squares (OLS) or other linear best line to the data and use the resulting slope to compute ΔT for the whole record. In Greenland this methodology produces very poor regression statistics as shown in figure 5 for the NCDC/Pages 2k one-year Agassiz δ18O record (R2 = 0, p=0.92) and the 5-year Renland record (R2 = 0.267, p = 0.01).
Figure 5. Instrumental era OLS correlations between NOAA GlobalTemp and δ18O on the left for the Pages 2k δ18O Agassiz and Renland, and the corresponding derived ΔT for the sites on the right. Both R2 values are poor.
Figure 5 is constructed from Pages 2k δ18O high-resolution data and local NOAA GlobalTemp version 6. The correlations are very poor. It doesn’t get any better using the original Vinther 20-year sample version of the same ice core data. GlobalTemp data from the closest grid cell is used on the y axis and the site δ18O is on the x axis. These correlations are not unique, nearly all the Greenland Pages 2K proxies produce poor R2 values as shown in table 1.
Table 1. GlobalTemp nearest grid cell to δ18O correlation statistics for the Vinther ice cores. The first column is the Pages 2k id, next is the proxy name, then the statistics. The “NCDC” proxies are the proxies used by Pages 2k (normally the winter data).
Besides the poor R2 and p values in table 1, the slopes are odd, especially considering that Agassiz A87 (slope = -20 ‰/°C) and Agassiz A84 (slope = 0.369 ‰/°C) are only about 30 meters apart and A79 (slope = 0.8 ‰/°C ) is only a km away. These regressions do not provide a robust basis for estimating temperature sensitivity. We used the fits to compute ΔT and the result is plotted in the right-hand graphs in figure 5. The Agassiz plot is essentially a horizontal line, and the Renland plot is close to a horizontal line. Pages 2k explains that extratropical winter variability is a better predictor of the annual average, so when given a choice (as they are here) they use winter values (Pages 2K, 2017). The proxies used by Pages 2k, in table 1, have an “NCDC” prefix.
The Pages 2k documentation (Pages 2K, 2017) indicates that instrumental correlations played a role in calibration of the proxy to temperature relationship and in screening the proxies. I was unable to locate sufficient information to fully reproduce their calibration process. They do not supply the calibration datasets or the proxy-by-proxy correlation statistics that I could find and the explanation they do provide (Pages 2K, 2017) suggests the process is quite complex. In my work, I used all points between 1870 and 2020 to do the calibrations.
NOAA GlobalTemp
The NOAA GlobalTemp instrumental record for the grid cell identified in figure 2 is compared to the SW Greenland instrumental record (Vinther et al., 2006) in figure 6.
Figure 6. The CRU SW Greenland instrumental record compared to the NOAA GlobalTemp nearest grid cell record. See figure 2 for the grid cell location. The measurement stations for the SW Greenland instrumental record are around Nuuk. Both records have been moved to a common reference (the mean from 1870-1900). Data sources: NOAA GlobalTemp, CRU, and (Vinther et al., 2006).
Figure 6 compares the land only SW Greenland temperature record and the corresponding record for the closest NOAA GlobalTemp grid cell located in figure 2. The grid cell contains a lot of sea surface area, that have temperatures that warm more slowly than the land-based temperatures in the SW Greenland record, which probably accounts for the 20th century difference.
Using “standard” δ18O to local temperature conversions
The problem with using an ice-core proxy δ18O to local temperature correlation for predicting temperature was recognized in the 1960s and Dansgaard and colleagues developed local correlations between δ18O in precipitation and temperature where both measurements are from the same sample. Their data is plotted in figure 7. Isotopic fractionation of precipitation versus condensation temperature is a real thing and atmospheric δ18O does decrease with condensation temperature. However, it is not a simple correlation and there are many confounding local factors when comparing regional temperatures to δ18O proxies. These include wind speed, relative humidity, topography, storm tracks, sea ice extent, elevation, and seasonality of precipitation. Thus, using a conversion from δ18O to ΔT varies from location to location.
Figure 7. Dansgaard et al. (1964 & 1973) surface δ18O to instrumental ΔT slopes for Greenland, Antarctica, and other regions. The key point is that the δ18O/ ΔT slopes are not the same everywhere and are influenced by local conditions. The data were digitized (with automeris.io/wpd/) from plots in (Dansgaard et al., 1973) & (Dansgaard, 1964). It is unclear if “Barrow” is Barrow Alaska, but it probably is.
Below is a blow up of Greenland points away from the coast shown in green in figure 7.
Figure 8. This plot is ΔT vs δ18O for Greenland samples inland from the coast.
Figure 8 shows just the points in the interior of Greenland. All temperatures and δ18O value are measured from the same samples in the same conditions. The correlation is excellent and the resulting slope of 0.63 ‰/°C is very close to the generally accepted Greenland conversion of 0.62 ‰/°C used for the curves in figure 9.
Figure 9. Using the conventional conversion factor of 0.62 ‰/°C, the Vinther elevation history corrected temperature anomaly (heavy black line) is compared to the Agassiz ice cores on the left and the Renland core on the right. In both plots the NCDC line in red is the data used by Pages 2k. The heavier gray lines are the original Vinther data (20-year samples for Agassiz) and the very faint gray lines are the one-year or 5-year data. The NCDC/Pages 2k Agassiz data are one-year samples and the Renland NCDC and 2009 data are 5-year samples. None of these curves are elevation corrected except for the Vinther 2009 data.
Conclusions
As should be clear from figure 7, the slope of 0.62 ‰/°C is only appropriate for ice cores in the interior of Greenland. It is not appropriate for other ice cores, marine carbonates, foraminifera, corals, speleothems, or lake carbonates. In fact, from my OLS study of the Pages 2k δ18O proxies the average derived slope for 46 marine and lake sediment samples was -0.77 ‰/°C. All these OLS slopes are highly speculative with an average R2 of 0.16. The normal marine slope is negative and found by linear regression, no dataset like shown in figures 7 & 8 exists for marine sediments to my knowledge. These results suggest that temperature reconstructions or aggregates based solely on marine δ18O should be interpreted cautiously because non-temperature influences can be large and difficult to quantify. The Rosenthal reconstruction plotted figure 3 is a bit unique, since it is very well located, with an accurate depth that is corrected for sea level changes, and very well constrained (Rosenthal et al., 2013).
When a good correlation between δ18O and ΔT is available, and the relationship can be reasonably expected to persist into the past over the time span of the proxy record, δ18O can be a very good proxy. I think that is the case for Greenland ice cores from the interior (see figure 8), as long as elevation changes can be corrected for and the sites are well located. Agassiz 77 is a good example of a poorly located proxy.
Site specific problems
While δ18O in precipitation is differentiated by condensation temperature, there is no unique one-to-one relationship between proxy δ18O and temperature because multiple climatic and environmental variables influence the isotopic signal. In a nutshell, water molecules containing 18O are slightly heavier than those containing 16O. As moist air cools and condenses, the heavier 18O preferentially rains or snows out. As an air mass moves poleward or upslope, it becomes progressively depleted in 18O. Colder condensation temperatures therefore generally produce more negative δ18O values. This produces the familiar positive slope observed in figure 7.
Corals, foraminifera and other marine carbonates are different. Colder seawater causes carbonates to incorporate more 18O. Thus, colder water has a higher δ18O and the slope becomes negative, we normally expect a slope of about -0.2, but the Pages 2k average is much higher than this, so these slopes are highly uncertain. Ocean water 18O content is affected by evaporation, precipitation, river input, sea ice formation, and melting ice, so the 18O content in shells and corals is very hard to interpret. The relationship between δ18O and ΔT, everything else equal, is linear but the confounding factors of humidity, moisture source, storm tracks, seasonality, evaporation/precipitation balance, ice volume and proximity, and salinity make the relationship quite uncertain.
Transparent calibration procedures
The importance of the calibration of δ18O to ΔT is apparent. This makes the lack of specific proxy-by-proxy details in the Pages 2k documentation and papers unsettling. All I could find was the phrase “correlation with instrumental” deep in the RData documentation.[1] No statistics were stored in the record, and the conversion process is only vaguely described in the papers and other documentation (Pages 2K, 2017). Transparent calibration proxy-by-proxy details are critical because inferred temperatures depend strongly on the assumed δ18O-to-temperature conversion, and the conversion depends upon local conditions.
Combining multiple proxies into one global or hemispheric reconstruction is unlikely to work and hard to interpret. Each proxy is influenced by local conditions that are not necessarily related to temperature. All proxies are not equally accurate, especially over long periods of time, and the long-term accuracy is difficult to estimate. The correlation to modern instrumental temperature measurements may not persist into the past, and we could not verify that it does even if it did. It is easier to interpret proxies one at a time, each has unique problems, as we can see with the Greenland examples in this post. The only meaningful use of temperature proxies is to estimate the local temperature history around the proxy or aggregate proxy location, which should be carefully compared to local historical or archeological records (Soon & Baliunas, 2003) & (Soon et al., 2003b).
TheR codeto make these figures and perform the analysis is complicated so I will not provide a code supplement in this post, instead I will write a post or two describing the code and provide downloadable code and data with those posts.
A new 450,000- year speleothem (stalagmite) record from the Peruvian Andes shows that the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and Asian monsoon were mostly out of phase (a “seesaw”), but occasionally synchronized, both strengthening or both weakening, especially during glacial terminations and warm intervals.
This research relates to climate change primarily by showing how the global monsoon system has responded to rapid shifts in planetary boundary conditions in the past, conditions that are analogous in some ways to those changing today.
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A new 450,000- year speleothem (stalagmite) record from the Peruvian Andes shows that the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and Asian monsoon were mostly out of phase (a “seesaw”), but occasionally synchronized, both strengthening or both weakening, especially during glacial terminations and warm intervals.
The study, published in Nature as “Interhemispheric monsoon dynamics over the past 450,000 years” (Olson, E. J. et al., 2026), is based on oxygen -isotope (δ¹⁸O) data from Andean cave stalagmites (including sites such as Huagapo and Pacupahuain in the Junín region of the Amazon Basin and Andes).
These records track monsoon intensity via the “amount effect”, in which heavier rainfall produces lower δ¹⁸O values. Uranium -thorium dating provided precise ages. Researchers combined the cave data with a nearby Lake Junín glacial/sediment record to isolate a regional SASM signal from local effects.
Key findings
Dominant pattern (seesaw): For most of the past ~450,000 years (spanning multiple glacial–interglacial cycles), SASM and Asian monsoon strength varied in antiphase. When one strengthened, the other weakened. This matches Milankovitch orbital forcing (especially precession, ~21,000- year cycles), which shifts seasonal solar insolation between hemispheres and supports the idea of a coherent “global monsoon” system.
Exceptions (synchrony): About ten intervals exceeded a synchronicity threshold (identified via running Pearson correlations and mean comparisons of the records). These include glacial terminations (abrupt ends of ice ages) and some warm interglacial and interstadial periods. Synchronous drying occurred during terminations and several warm intervals; synchronous wet conditions were rarer (mainly in the penultimate glacial, MIS 6). In these windows the monsoons moved together rather than opposing each other.
Drivers of the exceptions: These events coincide with rapidly changing boundary conditions, rising greenhouse- gas levels, shifting cross- equatorial thermal gradients, anomalous Atlantic and Pacific sea- surface temperatures, ice- sheet collapse, and disruptions to ocean circulation (e.g., Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation). Model comparisons support links between high- latitude ocean changes and tropical rainfall reorganization.
Broader implications
The global monsoon system supplies freshwater to more than 2.7 billion people. The record shows it is not rigidly locked to orbital cycles alone; it can reorganize for millennia when ice sheets, greenhouse gases, and ocean temperatures change quickly.
Synchronous droughts across hemispheres would strain water availability on both sides of the equator. The findings provide a long- term natural experiment relevant to understanding monsoon responses under rapid modern forcing.
Related coverage and summaries appear in Nature research briefings, Springer Nature Communities (“Behind the Paper”), Scienmag, and similar outlets; the primary paper is in Nature (doi: 10.1038/s41586-026-11166-3). Data are archived at NOAA NCEI.
Location of caves where speleothems were recovered. Credit: Nature (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-11166-3
This research relates to climate change primarily by showing how the global monsoon system has responded to rapid shifts in planetary boundary conditions in the past, conditions that are analogous in some ways to those changing today.
Core relevance
The 450,000- year speleothem record demonstrates that the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and Asian monsoon are usually out of phase (a “seesaw” driven largely by orbital- Milankovitch insolation differences).
However, they occasionally synchronize, both strengthening or, more concerningly, both weakening, during intervals of rapid change.
These synchronicity events (about ten identified) cluster around glacial terminations and warm interglacial/interstadial periods.
Key drivers of those exceptions include:
Rising greenhouse- gas concentrations
Changes in cross- equatorial thermal gradients
Anomalous sea- surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific
Disruptions to ocean circulation (including Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, collapse or weakening)
In short, when ice sheets, carbon dioxide levels, ocean temperatures, and circulation shift quickly, the global monsoon can reorganize for millennia rather than simply following the slow orbital “clock”. Synchronous drying across both hemispheres would reduce freshwater availability in major monsoon regions at the same time.
Link to present- day and future climate change
Greenhouse gases and rapid forcing: Past synchronous events occurred when greenhouse gases rose (though more slowly than today). Modern CO₂ is increasing far faster than during most of the last 450,000 years. The paper notes that the monsoon is not rigidly locked to orbital cycles; it can flip modes when boundary conditions change rapidly, exactly the situation under (anthropogenic) warming.
Ocean circulation risks: Model comparisons (including AMOC “hosing” experiments) link high- latitude ocean changes to tropical rainfall reorganization. Ongoing observations and projections of AMOC weakening under climate change therefore raise the possibility of monsoon disruptions that are more simultaneous and less “seesaw- like.”
Water security: Monsoons supply freshwater to more than 2.7 billion people. Historical evidence of multi- millennial synchronous droughts underscores the risk that future reorganization could strain water resources across both hemispheres rather than allowing one region’s gains to offset another’s losses.
Not a direct prediction: The study is a paleoclimate reconstruction, not a future forecast. Orbital forcing today is different from glacial terminations, and human- driven change includes additional factors (aerosols, land- use change, etc.). Still, it supplies a long- term natural experiment showing the monsoon system’s sensitivity to fast shifts in ice, greenhouse gases, SSTs, and ocean circulation, the same variables that climate models project will continue changing this century.
In essence, the stalagmite record strengthens the scientific case that rapid climate change can push the global monsoon beyond its usual interhemispheric balance, with potentially widespread impacts on rainfall patterns and water availability. It does not claim that today’s warming will automatically produce the exact same synchronicity events, but it shows that such reorganization is physically possible and has occurred under analogous (if slower) past conditions.
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Interhemispheric monsoon dynamics over the past 450,000 years
Abstract (key points)
The global monsoon system supplies freshwater to much of Earth’s biota and human population. Milankovitch orbital variations in solar insolation are expected to drive long- term changes in the monsoon, and internal factors (ice cover, sea- surface temperatures) can also influence it. Southern Hemisphere monsoon records spanning multiple glacial– interglacial cycles have been scarce.
This study presents a 450,000- year record of South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) variability based on speleothem (stalagmite) oxygen- isotope (δ¹⁸O) data from the Amazon Basin (Peruvian Andes caves).
SASM variability and the Asian monsoon have been strikingly out of phase for most of this interval (a classic interhemispheric “seesaw”).
Occasional synchronous behaviour occurs in regions affected by both monsoons.
A synchronicity threshold is exceeded during ten events, including glacial terminations.
Comparison with palaeoclimate forcings indicates that greenhouse- gas concentrations, cross- equatorial thermal gradients, and Atlantic and Pacific sea- surface temperatures probably influence these synchronous intervals.
The record shows that the global monsoon can reorganize itself, especially during periods of rapidly changing planetary boundary conditions.
Additional details from the paper and related coverage
Data & methods: Speleothem δ¹⁸O records (validated by modern cave monitoring) combined with a nearby Lake Junín glacial record to separate local vs. regional signals. Uranium-thorium dating provides precise chronology. Compared with established Asian monsoon speleothem records (e.g., Cheng et al.).
Figures (from the page): Location of caves; assessment of local vs. regional SASM signals; comparisons with other records; synchronicity events vs. climate forcings; Pearson correlations between Andean and Asian records; tropical precipitation maps and modelled response to AMOC collapse.
Data & code availability: Data at NOAA NCEI (doi:10.25921/ecnf-7908); analysis code on CodeOcean; related model data on Zenodo.
The full text is behind a paywall/subscription. Summaries and “Behind the Paper” discussions are available via Nature research briefings and Springer Nature Communities.
It’s election season. A major issue is high energy prices. “Climate change” is way down the concern list, knowing that climate mitigation (anti-fossil-fuel) policies increase prices. Thus, the green hushing continues.
The leading critic of green hushing, Joe Romm, committed suicide to escape the issue. “The problem is not denial nor this strawman description of ‘climate messaging’ that no one I know actually does— and I’ve been doing this for three decades,” he complained.
“Overall, Democrats have softened some of the rhetoric they think may have alienated voters in the Biden years — on climate and gender issues in particular….” – David Wallace-Wells, New York Times (October 14, 2026)
It’s election season. A major issue is high energy prices. “Climate change” is way down the concern list, knowing that climate mitigation (anti- fossil- fuel) policies increase prices. Thus, the green hushing continues.
Climate messaging is a mess–and in a funk (see Appendix below). The leading critic of green hushing, Joe Romm, committed suicide to escape the issue. “The problem is not denial nor this strawman description of ‘climate messaging’ that no one I know actually does— and I’ve been doing this for three decades,” he complained.
The problems are 1) the biggest disinformation campaign in human history, 2) which is amplified by every major social media site and 3) which combined outspend the money disseminating any of the climate messaging by 20x to 100x. The world is not subjected to bad climate messaging so much as it subjected to an open fire hydrant of lies on the one hand and climate silence on the other.
Or maybe the public is more attune to their priorities than this “expert” pontificator. And the climate alarm is exaggerated.
Election Update
The Guardian gave a current on Greenhushing as if it was an anomaly.
… the unfolding climate crisis, and the imperative to transition to cleaner, less volatile forms of energy, has been starkly absent on campaign trai s before the midterms in three weeks’ time. Even among previously pro-green Democrats, 2026 has seen a widespread climate omerta.
Three examples were given.
“Look, I’m not going to defend the Green New Deal,” Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic US Senate candidate in Michigan, told Fox News in August, after previously campaigning for 100% renewable energy.
Jon Ossoff, seeking to retain his Senate seat in Georgia, has ditched mentions of the environment in favor of focusing on the Iran war and inflation.
… James Talarico, another leading Democratic Senate hope who previously compared oil and gas to 1980s cassette tapes that are “not gonna last”, has struck a very different tone in this campaign. “I support our oil and gas industry,” Talarico, aiming for a first Democratic win in Texas in decades, said last month. “I had family members who worked in the industry. I went to public schools here in Texas, funded by the oil and gas industry.”
“Head exploding,” as Joe Romm used to exclaim.
Sarah Peach at Yale Climate Connections issued a warning:
But when candidates simply mirror what they think the public wants, that can lead to a vicious cycle. The public is influenced by what elite politicians say, so when candidates don’t prioritize climate change, the public may see it as less important, too.
Conclusion
Once again, reality has set in. The magical thinking that wind, solar, and batteries are the energy future is busted. Affordability is causing the swing-state Democrats to change their stripes. Meanwhile, Big Green argues that their politically correct, economically incorrect energies are really cheaper and better. They cite studies, such as Lazard’s (flawed) LCOE analysis. And Stanford University engineer Mark Jacobson’s fanciful analysis that the U.S. could affordability go to 100 percent renewables (without nuclear too).
Remember: Noncompetitive energies need studies; competitive energies need economic freedom.
Appendix
Previous posts at MasterResource on this issue have been:
Researchers at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE) in Hungary reconstructed ~16,000 years of summer (mean July) temperature changes in the Western Balkans using sediments from Lake Prokoško in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Two complementary 2026 studies on the same sediment sequence cover the full period: one on the Late Glacial to Early Holocene (~16,000- 10,000 years ago) by Magyari, doctoral researcher Eszter Tombor, and colleagues (Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology), and one on the Holocene by Magyari’s group with contributions including Aneta Formáčková (Quaternary Science Reviews). Together they provide a continuous record from the end of the last glacial period to the present.
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Researchers at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE) in Hungary reconstructed ~16,000 years of summer (mean July) temperature changes in the Western Balkans using sediments from Lake Prokoško in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The work was led by Enikő Magyari (Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography, Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, and head of the DOMINO- CLIMATE project).
Two complementary 2026 studies on the same sediment sequence cover the full period: one on the Late Glacial to Early Holocene (~16,000- 10,000 years ago) by Magyari, doctoral researcher Eszter Tombor, and colleagues (Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology), and one on the Holocene by Magyari’s group with contributions including Aneta Formáčková (Quaternary Science Reviews). Together they provide a continuous record from the end of the last glacial period to the present.
Site and methods
Lake Prokoško is a small alpine lake (4.8 hectares) at 1,670 m elevation in the Vranica Mountains (Dinaric Alps). Sediments preserve remains of the surrounding landscape and lake ecosystem.
The primary temperature proxy was fossil chironomids (non- biting midges): their larvae live on lake beds, different species prefer different temperatures, oxygen and nutrient conditions, and their durable chitinous head capsules accumulate in sediments. Species assemblages from the core were compared with modern European lake data to estimate past mean July air temperatures. Supporting analyses of pollen, sediment particles, organic matter, and geochemistry tracked vegetation, erosion, and lake conditions.
Key temperature findings
Late Glacial: Around 14,600 years ago, mean July temperatures were below 8°C. They then rose rapidly by ~2.6°C to about 10.2°C, with increased lake productivity, vegetation expansion, and more stable catchment conditions.
Younger Dryas (starting ~12,900 years ago): Temperatures dropped ~2.3°C to around 7.9°C. Cold-water chironomids increased and erosion intensified. This cooling was intermediate in strength: stronger than in the Eastern and Southern Carpathians (often <1°C) but weaker than in many Alpine lakes (3–4°C), showing a west- to -east gradient linked to North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric changes.
Early Holocene: Rapid warming of ~2.9°C between ~11,800 and 11,400 years ago; by ~10,500 years ago temperatures reached ~12.6°C. The ice- free season lengthened and closed- canopy forests reduced erosion.
Mid- to- Late Holocene: Temperatures fluctuated. Around 6,800 years ago they may have reached ~14°C (some summers warmer than today’s). A cooling trend began ~6,000- 5,500 years ago (part of the Neoglacial transition), with values falling toward ~11.8°C by ~5,670 years ago. Further cooling around 3,000 years ago dropped temperatures from ~14.7°C to ~12°C; the Roman Warm Period (~2,000 years ago) brought a rise to ~13.3°C.
Mid- Holocene warmth was driven mainly by orbital changes that increased Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (a seasonal effect). Modern warming is global, year- round, faster, and primarily linked to greenhouse- gas emissions.
Broader significance
The site lies in a climatic transition zone among Western, Central, and Eastern Europe. The same large- scale events (e.g., Younger Dryas) had spatially varying impacts, relevant for understanding regional differences including the Carpathian Basin. Alpine lakes are sensitive indicators: even modest temperature shifts affect ice cover, stratification, oxygen, and biology.
The findings come from the two peer- reviewed papers noted above and were summarized in ELTE and phys.org releases around mid- to- late October 2026.
Panoramic view of Lake Prokoško and the Vranica Mountains at an elevation of 1,670 meters, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The lake is now overgrown with aquatic vegetation. Credit: Gusztáv Jakab
Chironomid- based Holocene summer temperature variability in Lake Prokoško, Vranica Mountains, Bosnia and Hercegovina (western- Balkan region)
This is the Holocene- focused companion paper to the Late Glacial and Early Holocene study from the same Lake Prokoško sediment sequence.
It forms one half of the continuous ~16,000- year summer (mean July) temperature reconstruction for the Western Balkans led by Enikő Magyari’s group at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE). The other paper (Tombor et al.) covers the Late Glacial to Early Holocene in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology.
Key points from available summaries of this paper
Site: Small alpine lake (Lake Prokoško, ~4.8 ha, 1,670 m elevation) in the Vranica Mountains, Dinaric Alps, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Method: Chironomid (non-biting midge) head-capsule assemblages from the sediment core, calibrated against modern European lake data to reconstruct mean July air temperatures. Supported by pollen, sedimentology, organic matter, and geochemistry.
Main Holocene results (as reported in ELTE and phys.org coverage of both papers):
Rapid post- Younger Dryas warming: ~2.9 °C rise between ~11,800- 11,400 years ago; ~12.6 °C by ~10,500 years ago.
Mid- Holocene peak: reconstructed mean July temperatures may have reached ~14 °C around 6,800 years ago (some summers warmer than present).
Subsequent cooling as part of the Neoglacial transition (~6,000- 5,500 years ago onward), with values falling toward ~11.8 °C by ~5,670 years ago.
Further cooling around 3,000 years ago (from ~14.7 °C to ~12 °C), followed by a rise during the Roman Warm Period (~2,000 years ago) to ~13.3 °C.
Human impact signals appear by ~6,000 years ago (pollen evidence of grazing and open habitats) and intensify later (nutrient enrichment, shifts in chironomid communities from ~700- 500 years ago onward, linked to alpine grazing and, more recently, tourism/eutrophication).
The paper emphasizes that mid- Holocene warmth was primarily orbital (higher Northern Hemisphere summer insolation), whereas modern warming is global, year- round, and anthropogenic. The site sits in a climatic transition zone, with the magnitude of events (e.g., Younger Dryas cooling of ~2.3 °C) intermediate between the Alps and the Eastern Carpathians.
Note on access: The full text on ScienceDirect is behind a paywall (or institutional access). Public summaries are available via the ELTE announcement and the phys.org article based on it (published ~21 October 2026). No open- access full-text version was located in searches at the time of checking.
Authors: Aneta Formáčková, Ladislav Hamerlík, Ingo Feeser, Walter Dörfler, Johannes Müller, János L. Korponai, Gusztáv Jakab, Jasmina Kamberović, Enikő Magyari
Abstract
Despite increasing regional studies, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene climate remain limited in the western Balkans. This study provides the first chironomid-based summer air temperature reconstruction from Bosnia and Herzegovina, based on a sediment core from Lake Prokoško (1670 m a.s.l., Vranica Mountains) spanning ∼11,700 cal yr BP to the present. In total, 53 chironomid taxa were identified, with assemblage changes reflecting major ecological and climatic shifts. Cold-adapted Late Glacial taxa persisted until ∼11,500 cal yr BP, after which warmer and more stable conditions promoted oligotrophic to mesotrophic assemblages and the rise of Cladotanytarsus mancus-type, accompanied by July air temperatures reaching ∼13.2 °C (based on Swiss-Norwegian training set results). Later drop in temperatures ∼8000 cal yr BP to 11.2 °C could be connected to the 8.2 ka climatic oscillation. The Middle Holocene transition (∼6000–5500 cal yr BP) shows cooling to 11.8 °C, reduced taxonomic richness, and enhanced sediment input. The reconstructed July air temperatures from this interval may have been partly influenced by human impact. From ∼5000 cal yr BP, mesotrophic conditions and higher diversity prevailed, with temperatures fluctuating between ∼12.0 and 13.3 °C. Late Holocene oscillations include an increase to 13.4 °C at ∼3500 cal yr BP and a decrease to 12.0 °C at ∼2480 cal yr BP, followed by warming during the Roman Warm Period (∼13.3 °C, ∼2000 cal yr BP). The past millennium shows strong anthropogenic influence, with increased representation of meso-to eutrophic taxa, macrophyte expansion, and reduced oxygenation of the profundal zone. Comparisons with other European mountain lakes indicate broadly coherent Holocene climate trends, providing this record as a key reference for the western Balkans.
(A) Map showing the locations of Central and southeast European chironomid-based mean July air temperature records discussed in the text (B) Bathymetric map of Lake Prokoško (modified after Spahić et al. (2015), and our own measurements). (C) Photograph of Lake Prokoško by G. Jakab). Credit: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology (2026). DOI: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.114115
Chironomid-based Late Glacial and Early Holocene summer temperature variability in Lake Prokoško (Western-Balkan region)
It is one of the two 2026 ELTE-led studies that together reconstruct ~16,000 years of mean July temperatures in the Western Balkans. This paper focuses on the rapid changes from approximately 16,000- 10,000 years ago (Late Glacial through the beginning of the Holocene). The companion paper (Formáčková et al. in Quaternary Science Reviews) covers the Holocene.
Key results from available summaries of this paper
Site & methods: Same small alpine lake (Lake Prokoško, 1,670 m, Vranica Mountains, Bosnia and Herzegovina). Primary proxy = fossil chironomid (non-biting midge) head capsules, calibrated against modern European lake assemblages to estimate past mean July air temperatures. Supported by pollen, sediment particles, organic matter, and geochemistry.
Temperature history:
Oldest layers (~14,600 years ago): mean July temperatures below 8 °C.
Rapid warming of ~2.6 °C shortly afterward, reaching ~10.2 °C. Lake productivity increased, vegetation expanded, and catchment conditions stabilized.
Younger Dryas (onset ~12,900 years ago): abrupt cooling of ~2.3 °C, down to ~7.9 °C. Cold-water chironomid species increased and clastic (erosional) input rose.
End of Younger Dryas and Early Holocene: another rapid warming of ~2.9 °C between ~11,800 and 11,400 years ago. By ~10,500 years ago temperatures had reached ~12.6 °C; the ice- free season lengthened and closed- canopy forests reduced erosion.
Spatial pattern: The ~2.3 °C Younger Dryas summer cooling at this Western Balkan site is intermediate, stronger than in the Eastern and Southern Carpathians (often <1 °C) but weaker than in many Alpine lakes (3- 4 °C). This supports a west- to- east gradient linked to North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric changes.
The paper highlights the sensitivity of alpine lakes to relatively modest temperature shifts and the value of the site as a climatic transition zone between Western, Central, and Eastern Europe.
Access note: The full text is behind the ScienceDirect paywall (institutional or personal subscription required). Detailed public summaries appear in the ELTE announcement and the phys.org article (21 October 2026) that cover both companion papers. No freely available full-text version was located.
The Late Glacial and Early Holocene were marked by abrupt climate oscillations, yet high-resolution quantitative temperature reconstructions remain scarce in the climatically transitional Western Balkans. Here, we present a chironomid-based mean July air temperature (TJuly) reconstruction from subalpine Lake Prokoško (1670 m a.s.l., Bosnia and Herzegovina), spanning ∼18–9.87 ka BP. Using a Swiss–Norwegian calibration dataset together with geochemical (XRF, LOI) and palynological proxies, we reconstruct the climatic and limnological evolution of the lake ecosystem.Before ∼14.6 ka BP, Lake Prokoško was a cold oligotrophic glacial environment with TJuly below 8.0 °C, dominated by cold-stenotherm taxa such as Pseudodiamesa. The Bølling–Allerød interstadial experienced rapid warming to ∼10.2 °C (+2.6 °C), accompanied by enhanced aquatic productivity and catchment stabilization. During the Younger Dryas (∼13.07–11.61 ka BP) July mean temperatures declined by ∼2.3 °C (to ∼7.9 °C), coinciding with increased soil erosion, catchment instability, and the return of cold-water fauna. The onset of the Early Holocene brought a further warming of 2.9 °C (>12.0 °C), leading to stable summer stratification, hypolimnetic anoxia, and a shift to a highly productive mesotrophic–eutrophic lake state. Regionally, the ∼2.3 °C Younger Dryas cooling places Lake Prokoško between the stronger Alpine (>3.0–4.0 °C) and weaker Eastern Carpathian (<1.0 °C) responses. Our results support a west–east decreasing summer cooling gradient across Europe during the Younger Dryas, linked to diminishing North Atlantic influence inland.
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