
Researchers at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE) in Hungary reconstructed ~16,000 years of summer (mean July) temperature changes in the Western Balkans using sediments from Lake Prokoško in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The work was led by Enikő Magyari (Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography, Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, and head of the DOMINO- CLIMATE project).
Two complementary 2026 studies on the same sediment sequence cover the full period: one on the Late Glacial to Early Holocene (~16,000- 10,000 years ago) by Magyari, doctoral researcher Eszter Tombor, and colleagues (Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology), and one on the Holocene by Magyari’s group with contributions including Aneta Formáčková (Quaternary Science Reviews). Together they provide a continuous record from the end of the last glacial period to the present.
Site and methods
Lake Prokoško is a small alpine lake (4.8 hectares) at 1,670 m elevation in the Vranica Mountains (Dinaric Alps). Sediments preserve remains of the surrounding landscape and lake ecosystem.
The primary temperature proxy was fossil chironomids (non- biting midges): their larvae live on lake beds, different species prefer different temperatures, oxygen and nutrient conditions, and their durable chitinous head capsules accumulate in sediments. Species assemblages from the core were compared with modern European lake data to estimate past mean July air temperatures. Supporting analyses of pollen, sediment particles, organic matter, and geochemistry tracked vegetation, erosion, and lake conditions.
Key temperature findings
- Late Glacial: Around 14,600 years ago, mean July temperatures were below 8°C. They then rose rapidly by ~2.6°C to about 10.2°C, with increased lake productivity, vegetation expansion, and more stable catchment conditions.
- Younger Dryas (starting ~12,900 years ago): Temperatures dropped ~2.3°C to around 7.9°C. Cold-water chironomids increased and erosion intensified. This cooling was intermediate in strength: stronger than in the Eastern and Southern Carpathians (often <1°C) but weaker than in many Alpine lakes (3–4°C), showing a west- to -east gradient linked to North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric changes.
- Early Holocene: Rapid warming of ~2.9°C between ~11,800 and 11,400 years ago; by ~10,500 years ago temperatures reached ~12.6°C. The ice- free season lengthened and closed- canopy forests reduced erosion.
- Mid- to- Late Holocene: Temperatures fluctuated. Around 6,800 years ago they may have reached ~14°C (some summers warmer than today’s). A cooling trend began ~6,000- 5,500 years ago (part of the Neoglacial transition), with values falling toward ~11.8°C by ~5,670 years ago. Further cooling around 3,000 years ago dropped temperatures from ~14.7°C to ~12°C; the Roman Warm Period (~2,000 years ago) brought a rise to ~13.3°C.
Mid- Holocene warmth was driven mainly by orbital changes that increased Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (a seasonal effect). Modern warming is global, year- round, faster, and primarily linked to greenhouse- gas emissions.
Broader significance
The site lies in a climatic transition zone among Western, Central, and Eastern Europe. The same large- scale events (e.g., Younger Dryas) had spatially varying impacts, relevant for understanding regional differences including the Carpathian Basin. Alpine lakes are sensitive indicators: even modest temperature shifts affect ice cover, stratification, oxygen, and biology.
The findings come from the two peer- reviewed papers noted above and were summarized in ELTE and phys.org releases around mid- to- late October 2026.

Chironomid- based Holocene summer temperature variability in Lake Prokoško, Vranica Mountains, Bosnia and Hercegovina (western- Balkan region)
This is the Holocene- focused companion paper to the Late Glacial and Early Holocene study from the same Lake Prokoško sediment sequence.
It forms one half of the continuous ~16,000- year summer (mean July) temperature reconstruction for the Western Balkans led by Enikő Magyari’s group at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE). The other paper (Tombor et al.) covers the Late Glacial to Early Holocene in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology.
Key points from available summaries of this paper
- Site: Small alpine lake (Lake Prokoško, ~4.8 ha, 1,670 m elevation) in the Vranica Mountains, Dinaric Alps, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Method: Chironomid (non-biting midge) head-capsule assemblages from the sediment core, calibrated against modern European lake data to reconstruct mean July air temperatures. Supported by pollen, sedimentology, organic matter, and geochemistry.
- Main Holocene results (as reported in ELTE and phys.org coverage of both papers):
- Rapid post- Younger Dryas warming: ~2.9 °C rise between ~11,800- 11,400 years ago; ~12.6 °C by ~10,500 years ago.
- Mid- Holocene peak: reconstructed mean July temperatures may have reached ~14 °C around 6,800 years ago (some summers warmer than present).
- Subsequent cooling as part of the Neoglacial transition (~6,000- 5,500 years ago onward), with values falling toward ~11.8 °C by ~5,670 years ago.
- Further cooling around 3,000 years ago (from ~14.7 °C to ~12 °C), followed by a rise during the Roman Warm Period (~2,000 years ago) to ~13.3 °C.
- Human impact signals appear by ~6,000 years ago (pollen evidence of grazing and open habitats) and intensify later (nutrient enrichment, shifts in chironomid communities from ~700- 500 years ago onward, linked to alpine grazing and, more recently, tourism/eutrophication).
The paper emphasizes that mid- Holocene warmth was primarily orbital (higher Northern Hemisphere summer insolation), whereas modern warming is global, year- round, and anthropogenic. The site sits in a climatic transition zone, with the magnitude of events (e.g., Younger Dryas cooling of ~2.3 °C) intermediate between the Alps and the Eastern Carpathians.
Note on access: The full text on ScienceDirect is behind a paywall (or institutional access). Public summaries are available via the ELTE announcement and the phys.org article based on it (published ~21 October 2026). No open- access full-text version was located in searches at the time of checking.
Journal: Quaternary Science Reviews, (2026)
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2026.110255
Provided: Eötvös Loránd University
Authors: Aneta Formáčková, Ladislav Hamerlík, Ingo Feeser, Walter Dörfler, Johannes Müller, János L. Korponai, Gusztáv Jakab, Jasmina Kamberović, Enikő Magyari
Abstract
Despite increasing regional studies, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene climate remain limited in the western Balkans. This study provides the first chironomid-based summer air temperature reconstruction from Bosnia and Herzegovina, based on a sediment core from Lake Prokoško (1670 m a.s.l., Vranica Mountains) spanning ∼11,700 cal yr BP to the present. In total, 53 chironomid taxa were identified, with assemblage changes reflecting major ecological and climatic shifts. Cold-adapted Late Glacial taxa persisted until ∼11,500 cal yr BP, after which warmer and more stable conditions promoted oligotrophic to mesotrophic assemblages and the rise of Cladotanytarsus mancus-type, accompanied by July air temperatures reaching ∼13.2 °C (based on Swiss-Norwegian training set results). Later drop in temperatures ∼8000 cal yr BP to 11.2 °C could be connected to the 8.2 ka climatic oscillation. The Middle Holocene transition (∼6000–5500 cal yr BP) shows cooling to 11.8 °C, reduced taxonomic richness, and enhanced sediment input. The reconstructed July air temperatures from this interval may have been partly influenced by human impact. From ∼5000 cal yr BP, mesotrophic conditions and higher diversity prevailed, with temperatures fluctuating between ∼12.0 and 13.3 °C. Late Holocene oscillations include an increase to 13.4 °C at ∼3500 cal yr BP and a decrease to 12.0 °C at ∼2480 cal yr BP, followed by warming during the Roman Warm Period (∼13.3 °C, ∼2000 cal yr BP). The past millennium shows strong anthropogenic influence, with increased representation of meso-to eutrophic taxa, macrophyte expansion, and reduced oxygenation of the profundal zone. Comparisons with other European mountain lakes indicate broadly coherent Holocene climate trends, providing this record as a key reference for the western Balkans.

Chironomid-based Late Glacial and Early Holocene summer temperature variability in Lake Prokoško (Western-Balkan region)
It is one of the two 2026 ELTE-led studies that together reconstruct ~16,000 years of mean July temperatures in the Western Balkans. This paper focuses on the rapid changes from approximately 16,000- 10,000 years ago (Late Glacial through the beginning of the Holocene). The companion paper (Formáčková et al. in Quaternary Science Reviews) covers the Holocene.
Key results from available summaries of this paper
- Site & methods: Same small alpine lake (Lake Prokoško, 1,670 m, Vranica Mountains, Bosnia and Herzegovina). Primary proxy = fossil chironomid (non-biting midge) head capsules, calibrated against modern European lake assemblages to estimate past mean July air temperatures. Supported by pollen, sediment particles, organic matter, and geochemistry.
- Temperature history:
- Oldest layers (~14,600 years ago): mean July temperatures below 8 °C.
- Rapid warming of ~2.6 °C shortly afterward, reaching ~10.2 °C. Lake productivity increased, vegetation expanded, and catchment conditions stabilized.
- Younger Dryas (onset ~12,900 years ago): abrupt cooling of ~2.3 °C, down to ~7.9 °C. Cold-water chironomid species increased and clastic (erosional) input rose.
- End of Younger Dryas and Early Holocene: another rapid warming of ~2.9 °C between ~11,800 and 11,400 years ago. By ~10,500 years ago temperatures had reached ~12.6 °C; the ice- free season lengthened and closed- canopy forests reduced erosion.
- Spatial pattern: The ~2.3 °C Younger Dryas summer cooling at this Western Balkan site is intermediate, stronger than in the Eastern and Southern Carpathians (often <1 °C) but weaker than in many Alpine lakes (3- 4 °C). This supports a west- to- east gradient linked to North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric changes.
The paper highlights the sensitivity of alpine lakes to relatively modest temperature shifts and the value of the site as a climatic transition zone between Western, Central, and Eastern Europe.
Access note: The full text is behind the ScienceDirect paywall (institutional or personal subscription required). Detailed public summaries appear in the ELTE announcement and the phys.org article (21 October 2026) that cover both companion papers. No freely available full-text version was located.
Journal: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
DOI: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.114115, (2026)
Provided: Eötvös Loránd University
Authors: Eszter Tombor, Aneta Formáčková, János L. Korponai, Veronika Szilágyi, Ingo Feeser, Walter Dörfler, Christel van den Bogaard, Johannes Müller, Enikő K. Magyari
Abstract
The Late Glacial and Early Holocene were marked by abrupt climate oscillations, yet high-resolution quantitative temperature reconstructions remain scarce in the climatically transitional Western Balkans. Here, we present a chironomid-based mean July air temperature (TJuly) reconstruction from subalpine Lake Prokoško (1670 m a.s.l., Bosnia and Herzegovina), spanning ∼18–9.87 ka BP. Using a Swiss–Norwegian calibration dataset together with geochemical (XRF, LOI) and palynological proxies, we reconstruct the climatic and limnological evolution of the lake ecosystem.Before ∼14.6 ka BP, Lake Prokoško was a cold oligotrophic glacial environment with TJuly below 8.0 °C, dominated by cold-stenotherm taxa such as Pseudodiamesa. The Bølling–Allerød interstadial experienced rapid warming to ∼10.2 °C (+2.6 °C), accompanied by enhanced aquatic productivity and catchment stabilization. During the Younger Dryas (∼13.07–11.61 ka BP) July mean temperatures declined by ∼2.3 °C (to ∼7.9 °C), coinciding with increased soil erosion, catchment instability, and the return of cold-water fauna. The onset of the Early Holocene brought a further warming of 2.9 °C (>12.0 °C), leading to stable summer stratification, hypolimnetic anoxia, and a shift to a highly productive mesotrophic–eutrophic lake state. Regionally, the ∼2.3 °C Younger Dryas cooling places Lake Prokoško between the stronger Alpine (>3.0–4.0 °C) and weaker Eastern Carpathian (<1.0 °C) responses. Our results support a west–east decreasing summer cooling gradient across Europe during the Younger Dryas, linked to diminishing North Atlantic influence inland.





























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