Tag: cold winter

Germany’s Gas Storage Lags Far Behind Europe, Entering Winter at Just 61% Full

Germany faces elevated risks of tight natural gas supplies this winter, with historically low storage levels amplifying dependence on expensive gas- fired generation to back up intermittent wind and solar, while grid expansion and reserve capacity add major ongoing costs.

As of gas day 22 October 2026 (latest consistent data from GIE AGSI+), Germany’s gas storage fill level is among the lowest in Europe.

Infographic showing Germany's gas storage level at 61% full as it enters winter, compared to other European countries. Includes a comparison of gas storage levels in Poland (99%), Italy (90%), France (88%), EU average (75%), Netherlands (68%), and Austria (65%). Background features the German flag and gas storage tanks.
AI generated by Grok

Germany faces elevated risks of tight natural gas supplies this winter, with historically low storage levels amplifying dependence on expensive gas- fired generation to back up intermittent wind and solar, while grid expansion and reserve capacity add major ongoing costs.

Gas storage stood at around 60- 61% full in mid- to- late October 2026 (about 149- 151 TWh), well below prior years (e.g., ~75% at the same point in 2025) and among the lowest levels for the season on record.

The Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) assesses the near- term risk of a physical shortage as low, citing stable pipeline imports (notably from Norway), LNG terminals, and diversified supplies.

However, industry groups and analysts note limited buffer for a cold winter, high demand spikes, or import disruptions; storage theoretically covers roughly six weeks under certain scenarios, with deliverability constraints possible.

Cold weather combined with weaker wind output in mid- to- late October drove gas- fired power generation to a nine- month high (averaging >10 GW, peaking near 14 GW in the evening), helping meet power demand near 60 GW. Gas and coal together covered a substantial share of demand during these periods.

European gas prices have risen sharply (TTF near or above levels several times higher than the prior year in some reports), pushing electricity prices higher as gas plants often set the marginal price in low- renewable hours. This illustrates the system’s reliance on flexible (but costly) natural gas to compensate when wind and solar underperform, a structural feature of Germany’s post- nuclear, high- renewables mix.

Authorities are responding with interventions:

  • State- owned SEFE ordered to procure and store an extra 8 TWh by mid-December.
  • Trading Hub Europe awarded contracts worth nearly €245 million for additional standby supplies (including special tenders for February- March 2027).
  • Plans for a strategic national gas reserve of ~24 TWh (to cover scenarios such as major import failures for 10- 40 days), to replace mandatory storage filling targets after March 2027. Estimated costs: hundreds of millions of euros annually (potentially up to ~€3 billion over ten years in some projections), financed via a levy on gas customers.⁠

On the power side, the Federal Network Agency confirmed network reserve (Netzreserve) needs of about 7.4 GW for winter 2026/27 (and higher for later periods), partly covered by domestic plants and the rest from abroad.

These reserve power plants exist to stabilize the grid via redispatch when transmission constraints or generation shortfalls arise; their maintenance and operation represent ongoing multi- billion -euro system costs.

Grid expansion remains heavily delayed: of planned high-voltage lines, thousands of kilometers are still missing (some projects 5- 10 and more years behind original timelines, such as key north- south HVDC links).

Recent progress includes reinforcement of existing corridors (e.g., Grafenrheinfeld- Großgartach by TransnetBW and TenneT, boosting capacity), but major new lines are not expected until late 2026–2028 or later. This lag increases reliance on local flexible generation (including gas) and costly redispatch.⁠

In short, low storage makes import and weather risks more visible; expensive gas bridges renewable gaps in real time; and both reserve capacity and overdue grid build- out impose large, continuing costs on the system. Official assessments currently see supply as manageable under normal conditions, but a harsh winter or further external shocks would test resilience and keep prices elevated.

Gas storage level in Germany showing 61.15% full as of October 22, 2026, indicated as critical. Includes comparison data to previous days and years.
Gas storage level Germany: all facilities at a glance | Gasspeicher.app

As of 22- 24 October 2026, Germany’s natural gas storage is approximately 61.1- 61.2% full (around 151 TWh of working gas out of a total capacity of about 247 TWh).

Comparison to last year (2025)

  • On the same date in 2025 (around 21- 22 October), the fill level was about 75.4%.
  • This year’s level is roughly 14 percentage points lower than last year.⁠

The current level is also well below typical historical values for late October (often in the 80- 90 and more % range in recent non- crisis years) and under the legal target of ~80% by 1 November for most facilities.

The Federal Network Agency continues to describe overall supply security as guaranteed, based on ongoing imports, though the lower buffer increases sensitivity to cold weather or supply disruptions.

Gas storage level in Europe as of October 22, 2026, showing a percentage of 74.60%, classified as critical. Data includes comparisons to previous years and trends in gas storage levels.
Gas storage level Europe: current country comparison | Gasspeicher.app

As of gas day 22 October 2026 (latest consistent data from GIE AGSI+), Germany’s gas storage fill level is among the lowest in Europe.

Key comparisons

  • EU aggregate: ~74.6% full (≈845 TWh of ~1,132 TWh capacity). This is about 8 percentage points below the same date in 2025 (~82.8–82.9%) and well below the typical five- year average for late October (around 89%).

Germany stands out as one of the weakest performers:

  • Germany: 61.1- 61.2% (≈151 TWh of ~247 TWh capacity), roughly 13- 14 points below the EU average and far below its own historical levels for this time of year.

Selected other countries (approximate levels around 22 October 2026)

CountryFill levelNotes
Poland~98.9%Highest among major storers; near or above historical norms
Portugal~95.5%Very high
Italy~89.8- 90%Strong; one of the best among large consumers
France~87.1- 87%Solid, though slightly below recent years
Denmark~84.9%High
Spain~79%Moderately high
Hungary / Czechia~77- 78%Around or slightly above EU average
Austria~68.5%Below EU average
Belgium~66%Below average
Netherlands~65%Below EU average (similar challenges to Germany)
Slovakia~55%Lower
Latvia~50%Among the lowest
Ukraine (non-EU)~37%Significantly lower

Summary: Germany ranks near the bottom among EU countries with significant storage capacity (roughly 15th of 18 reported).

Countries in Southern and Eastern Europe (Italy, France, Poland, Portugal) are generally much better filled.

Northwestern neighbors like the Netherlands and Austria are also below the EU average but still higher than Germany.

The overall European buffer is thinner than last year and historical norms heading into winter, with Germany contributing a large share of the shortfall due to its large storage capacity.

Data is primarily from GIE AGSI+ and can see minor daily revisions.

Expect Soon Another PIK Paper Claiming Warming Leads to Cold Snaps Over Europe

The post argues that, as cold weather hits Europe (raising public doubts about global warming amid high energy costs), researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) might soon publish a paper attributing these cold snaps to climate change—specifically via mechanisms like reduced Arctic sea ice weakening the polar vortex and causing a wavier jet stream that allows cold air to spill southward.

A person bundled in warm clothing, with snow and ice covering their face, against a cold backdrop, accompanied by the text 'GLOBAL WARMING' in large letters.

The phrase “Expect Soon Another PIK Paper Claiming Warming Leads To Cold Snaps Over Europe” is blog post published by NoTricksZone.

It appears to be a satirical or mocking prediction amid an ongoing cold spell in Europe in early January 2026.

The post argues that, as cold weather hits Europe (raising public doubts about global warming amid high energy costs), researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) might soon publish a paper attributing these cold snaps to climate change—specifically via mechanisms like reduced Arctic sea ice weakening the polar vortex and causing a wavier jet stream that allows cold air to spill southward.

PIK scientists (e.g., Stefan Rahmstorf, Dim Coumou, and earlier Vladimir Petoukhov in a 2010 paper) have indeed promoted this hypothesis in past winters. They link rapid Arctic warming (Arctic amplification) to more persistent or extreme mid-latitude cold events in Eurasia and Europe.

From No Trick Zone

By P Gosselin 

Winter across Europe has been on the mild side so far – just as predicted by global warming alarmists. But now the weather is about to turn cold.

A cold winter spell is beginning to settle over Europe and there’s a risk the public here might start having doubts about the global warming narrative – especially as heating bills skyrocket and gas reserves run out. Thus, let’s not be surprised if climate-alarm suspects soon rush out another dubious paper claiming that extreme winter cold, too, is a telltale sign of warming.

Just-so story science

This was the case earlier. For example, in 2010, in the middle of a bitter cold winter, PIK scientists Petoukhov et al published a paper, “A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents” that found that sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe.

In 2019, Kornhuber et al published a paper, Extreme weather events in early summer 2018 connected by a recurrent hemispheric wave-7 pattern that focused on summer heatwaves, This research tracks the “resonant amplification” of planetary waves that allegedly causes cold air to spill south and stay there for weeks.

PIK researchers, particularly Vladimir Petoukhov, suggest to have identified a specific non-linear relationship, and claim the atmosphere reacts most violently when sea ice concentration is around 40–80% in certain Arctic regions. When the ice disappears, the ocean releases a massive “bubble” of heat into the cold winter air, thus creating a local high-pressure system (an anti-cyclone) over the Arctic. This high-pressure system acts like a physical wall that pushes the Jet Stream south and forces cold, continental winds from Siberia to blow westward into Europe.

Stefan Rahmstorf and his team have also championed the theory, arguing that Arctic warming makes the “waves” in the Jet Stream grow much larger and to move much slower. So, you see warming also leads to unusual cold and harsh winter events across Europe”

As of January 2026, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the broader scientific community have been tracking a highly unusual set of Arctic signals they believe align with the “less ice = harsher winters” mechanism (AMOC slowing, Tipping Points Report in October 2025, and the Arctic Report Card 2025 released just weeks ago.)

According to the PIK, we are no longer looking at “future risks” but rather the live observation of a destabilized system where low ice is creating a “heat dome” over the pole and is forcing the Jet Stream into a “stuck” position, leading to the current cold snaps.

A stylized drawing of a giraffe standing in a savanna landscape with trees in the background.
Just-so science: Giraffes have long necks to reach high leaves. Image generated by Grok AI. 

While the climate scientitsts insist this is well-grounded climate science, skeptics see it for what it really is: a “just-so story” filled with pseudo-profound bullshit and science sophistry. It sounds perfectly logical and satisfying (e.g., giraffes have long necks to reach high leaves), but it lacks empirical evidence to prove it’s actually how things happen.

Veteran Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: “We Got A Cold Winter Coming Up For Europe”

And at his latest Saturday Summary here, Joe Bastardi warns of a “major stratospheric warming event” shaping up over the Arctic for December, which “really ups the ante for the winter”. As for Europe, heavy rains are forecast for the early part of November, and Joe thinks this is a signal for cold weather will follow.

From NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin on 29. October 2023

Snowfan here reports how the ECMWF expects up to 3 meters of fresh snow in the Alps by the 7th of November.

Meanwhile, Joe Bastardi also sees signs that Europe’s winter will likely be a cold one (normal to below-normal)

First we look at snowfall for the Alps over the next 10 days:

Image cropped at Kachelmannwetter. 

This would mean an early start to the ski season.

According to Snowfan, Europe in 2023 so far has been widespread wet and Northern Europe has been quite cold.

Winter to follow period of heavy precipitation

And at his latest Saturday Summary here, Joe Bastardi warns of a “major stratospheric warming event” shaping up over the Arctic for December, which “really ups the ante for the winter”.

As for Europe, heavy rains are forecast for the early part of November, and Joe thinks this is a signal for cold weather will follow, similar to 2009:

Cropped from WeatherBell

“I think the next 2 months, November and December, are below normal overall,” says Joe. “We got a cold winter for Europe this year.”

So stay tuned. Joe plans to present his next winter forecast update next Saturday.

In the meantime, my firewood is ready and dry.

UPDATE:

This German meteorologist reports NOAA is forecasting a very mild 2023/24 winter. Who shall we believe?

Oil giant Shell warns cutting production ‘dangerous’

Cutting oil and gas production would be “dangerous and irresponsible”, the boss of energy giant Shell has told the BBC.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Robin Guenier

Cutting oil and gas production would be “dangerous and irresponsible”, the boss of energy giant Shell has told the BBC.

Wael Sawan insisted that the world still “desperately needs oil and gas” as moves to renewable energy were not happening fast enough to replace it.

He warned increased demand from China and a cold winter in Europe could push energy prices and bills higher again.

Mr Sawan angered climate scientists who said Shell’s plan to continue current oil production until 2030 was wrong.

Professor Emily Shuckburgh, a climate scientist at the University of Cambridge, said firms such as Shell should focus on accelerating the green transition “rather than trying to suggest the most vulnerable in society are in any way best served by prolonging our use of oil and gas”.

Head of the UN António Guterres recently said investment in new oil and gas production was “economic and moral madness”.

Mr Sawan told the BBC: “I respectfully disagree.” He added: “What would be dangerous and irresponsible is cutting oil and gas production so that the cost of living, as we saw last year, starts to shoot up again.”

The world is in a race to ditch fossil fuels in favour of greener alternatives as globally leaders have pledged to keep the world from warming by more than 1.5C this century.

Last year the European Commission outlined how the EU would speed up its shift to green energy to end its dependency on Russian oil and gas.

Many countries do not have the infrastructure to move to more sustainable forms of energy.

Mr Sawan said an international bidding war for gas last year saw poorer countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh unable to afford liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments that were instead diverted to Northern Europe.

“They took away LNG from those countries and children had to work and study by candlelight,” he said. “If we’re going to have a transition it needs to be a just transition that doesn’t just work for one part of the world.”

The Committee of Climate Change found household gas appliances were linked to respiratory problems and cardiovascular disease.

Claire Fyson, co-head of climate policy at Climate Analytics, a global science and policy institute, told the BBC: “The idea that it’s a choice between our addiction to fossil fuels or working by candlelight is a gross misrepresentation of reality, when we know renewables are cleaner, cheaper and better for public health.”

The UK has pledged to spend £11.6bn on international climate finance but a memo seen by the BBC said economic shocks like the Covid pandemic had “turned a stretching target into a huge challenge”.

The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, has said that “if governments are serious about the climate crisis, there can be no new investments in oil, gas and coal from now”.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66108553

Mr Sawan is of course perfectly right. The only way to get energy prices back to down to historical levels is to drill more. And as he says, the real losers in the last year have not been rich westerners, but the third world who have to go without energy because they cannot afford it.

But being the BBC, they have to flood the articles with the usual crackpots and charlatans, like Emily Shuckburgh, who is a mathematician not an energy or economics expert. Or Claire Fyson of Climate Analytics , which is a climate lobby group.

And the ludicrous CCC must be getting desperate to pretend that cheap gas boilers are damaging to your health, when the electric alternatives are unaffordable for most people, who will really will suffer without properly heated homes in winter.

Maybe next time, the BBC should ignore the charlatans and publish more comments from experts who understand the energy market.

Britain to be Left Without Emergency Coal Reserves This Winter

Britain is to be left without backup coal power plants this winter after the energy companies Drax and EDF confirmed plans to close their remaining stations, despite the backup being needed last winter. The Telegraph has the story.

From The Daily Sceptic

By WILL JONES

Britain is to be left without backup coal power plants this winter after the energy companies Drax and EDF confirmed plans to close their remaining stations, despite the backup being needed last winter. The Telegraph has the story.

The National Grid on Wednesday said it had ended talks with the two companies about keeping open West Burton A, in Nottinghamshire, and two coal-fired units at Drax’s plant in Selby, Yorkshire, after they made clear that the sites would not be available.

Last winter, the companies were paid to keep these coal units on standby as a final resort to keep the lights on if gas and renewable energy generation ran low.

But the refusal of EDF and Drax to keep the facilities open means the Grid will be unable to keep this so-called winter contingency in reserve again.

A third coal power station that participated last year, Uniper’s Ratcliffe-on-Soar, also in Nottinghamshire, will continue to operate but only on a commercial basis, meaning it is not available as a contingency.

The National Grid, which owns and operates Britain’s main electricity system, had been asked by ministers to find out whether the coal plants would be available again and revealed earlier this month that it was in talks about doing so.

But on Wednesday the company said: “These discussions have now concluded. Both operators have confirmed that they will not be able to make their coal units available for a further winter and have begun the decommissioning process.”

Drax said that the decision not to keep the Yorkshire coal units going was “due to a combination of technical, maintenance and staffing reasons”.

It means the National Grid will not be able to call upon a separate reserve of coal-generated power during times of system stress.

Worth reading in full.

Get Real on Energy Policy ( Bryce to US Senators)

Legislators and policymakers in Washington need a big dose of energy realism, an even bigger dose of energy humanism. Europe provides a case study for what not to do. Millions of Europeans are facing the prospect of a cold winter without enough affordable energy to heat their homes. Fertilizer plants and steel mills are closing because of high energy prices.

From Science Matters

By Ron Clutz

The imperative is put concisely in US Senate testimony by Robert Bryce in summary video above.  For those who prefer reading, I provide below a transcript and exhibits from the closed caption and screen captures.

Legislators and policymakers in Washington need a big dose of energy realism, an even bigger dose of energy humanism. Europe provides a case study for what not to do. Millions of Europeans are facing the prospect of a cold winter without enough affordable energy to heat their homes. Fertilizer plants and steel mills are closing because of high energy prices.

Europe’s price hikes are being caused by under investment in hydrocarbons due to aggressive decarbonization and ESG policies. Second, they’re being caused by over-investment in weather-dependent renewables, which has left the continent vulnerable to wind droughts. Just yesterday in Britain spot prices for electricity exceeded four thousand dollars a megawatt hour due to low wind speeds. Third, Europe is prematurely shuttering its coal and nuclear plants, and finally it is relying too heavily on imported energy and in particular Russian natural gas.

The implications of Europe’s price spikes include soaring inflation,
deindustrialization and increased burdens on consumers,
especially the working poor.

The knock-on effects could last for months or even years. Fertilizer made from hydrocarbons is the food of food. Numerous fertilizer plants in Europe and around the world are shutting down because of high natural gas prices. This will mean less food production and therefore higher food prices, leading to additional inflation.

The United States must not emulate Europe’s disastrous energy blueprint. We need energy realism. Energy is the economy; energy nourishes human potential. Hydrocarbons now provide 82 percent of our total energy and about 60 percent of our electricity supplies. The US today gets 18 times more energy from hydrocarbons as it does from wind and solar combined.

The myriad claims being made by climate activists, politicians and elite academics that we can run our economy solely on wind and solar and a few drops of hydropower have no basis in physics, math or history. Furthermore wherever renewables have been ramped up, as in Europe, energy prices have soared.

Senators, look at California where electricity prices are absolutely exploding. Wood Mckenzie estimates that converting our grid to renewables could cost 4.5 trillion dollars, or roughly $35, 000 for every family in America. How could such a staggering cost result in the just energy transition that we hear so much about?

Some Energy Realism: Since 2015 more than 300 communities across the country, from Maine to Hawaii have rejected wind projects. Over the past six months alone massive solar projects in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Montana have been rejected by local communities.

More Realism: Trying to convert our energy and power systems to renewables will make the US reliant on China for critical minerals like Neodymium, Dysprosium and Cobalt. Why is this okay?

Relying on renewables would also require building hundreds of thousands of miles of new high-voltage transmission lines. But the November second referendum in Maine showed very clearly again that rural americans do not want high voltage transmission lines slashing through their neighborhoods.

Strangling America’s hydrocarbon sector by killing pipelines, banning natural gas, halting drilling on federal lands, electrifying everything, and never ending tax breaks for big wind and big solar will not solve global climate change. Instead those moves will turbocharge inflation, imperil our energy security, and impose regressive taxes on the poor and the working class.

Our economy runs on hydrocarbons and that will be true for decades to come. Staking our economy as Europe has done on weather dependent renewables amounts to unilateral energy disarmament
That will hurt us and benefit Russia, China and OPEC. Who will stand up for rural America and against the landscape destroying sprawl of wind and solar? Who will speak against the federally subsidized slaughter of our birds and bats by the wind industry? Expensive energy is the enemy of the poor; Who in the senate will stand up for them? Who in congress will stand up for the affordability reliability and resilience of our electric grid, which is being undermined by this senseless rush to renewables and the premature retirement of our nuclear reactors?

Where are the pro-nuclear, pro-energy realists?
Where, I ask you, are the energy humanists?

Postscript:  Complete text of Bryce presentation with images is at Innovationized:
What’s Causing the Energy Crisis?

ESG, the Demonization of Carbon Fuels, and an Unfounded Confidence in Renewables