The phrase “Expect Soon Another PIK Paper Claiming Warming Leads To Cold Snaps Over Europe” is blog post published by NoTricksZone.

It appears to be a satirical or mocking prediction amid an ongoing cold spell in Europe in early January 2026.

The post argues that, as cold weather hits Europe (raising public doubts about global warming amid high energy costs), researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) might soon publish a paper attributing these cold snaps to climate change—specifically via mechanisms like reduced Arctic sea ice weakening the polar vortex and causing a wavier jet stream that allows cold air to spill southward.

PIK scientists (e.g., Stefan Rahmstorf, Dim Coumou, and earlier Vladimir Petoukhov in a 2010 paper) have indeed promoted this hypothesis in past winters. They link rapid Arctic warming (Arctic amplification) to more persistent or extreme mid-latitude cold events in Eurasia and Europe.

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From No Trick Zone

By P Gosselin 

Winter across Europe has been on the mild side so far – just as predicted by global warming alarmists. But now the weather is about to turn cold.

A cold winter spell is beginning to settle over Europe and there’s a risk the public here might start having doubts about the global warming narrative – especially as heating bills skyrocket and gas reserves run out. Thus, let’s not be surprised if climate-alarm suspects soon rush out another dubious paper claiming that extreme winter cold, too, is a telltale sign of warming.

Just-so story science

This was the case earlier. For example, in 2010, in the middle of a bitter cold winter, PIK scientists Petoukhov et al published a paper, “A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents” that found that sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe.

In 2019, Kornhuber et al published a paper, Extreme weather events in early summer 2018 connected by a recurrent hemispheric wave-7 pattern that focused on summer heatwaves, This research tracks the “resonant amplification” of planetary waves that allegedly causes cold air to spill south and stay there for weeks.

PIK researchers, particularly Vladimir Petoukhov, suggest to have identified a specific non-linear relationship, and claim the atmosphere reacts most violently when sea ice concentration is around 40–80% in certain Arctic regions. When the ice disappears, the ocean releases a massive “bubble” of heat into the cold winter air, thus creating a local high-pressure system (an anti-cyclone) over the Arctic. This high-pressure system acts like a physical wall that pushes the Jet Stream south and forces cold, continental winds from Siberia to blow westward into Europe.

Stefan Rahmstorf and his team have also championed the theory, arguing that Arctic warming makes the “waves” in the Jet Stream grow much larger and to move much slower. So, you see warming also leads to unusual cold and harsh winter events across Europe”

As of January 2026, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the broader scientific community have been tracking a highly unusual set of Arctic signals they believe align with the “less ice = harsher winters” mechanism (AMOC slowing, Tipping Points Report in October 2025, and the Arctic Report Card 2025 released just weeks ago.)

According to the PIK, we are no longer looking at “future risks” but rather the live observation of a destabilized system where low ice is creating a “heat dome” over the pole and is forcing the Jet Stream into a “stuck” position, leading to the current cold snaps.

While the climate scientitsts insist this is well-grounded climate science, skeptics see it for what it really is: a “just-so story” filled with pseudo-profound bullshit and science sophistry. It sounds perfectly logical and satisfying (e.g., giraffes have long necks to reach high leaves), but it lacks empirical evidence to prove it’s actually how things happen.