Australia’s aggressive renewable energy push—under the Albanese Labor government’s 82% renewables target by 2030—has indeed strained energy-intensive industries, contributing to deindustrialization, even as the National Electricity Market (NEM) hit a major milestone with renewables (plus storage) supplying over 50% of quarterly generation for the first time in Q4 2025.

Energy-intensive sectors like steel, aluminum, and chemicals continue facing acute pressure. BlueScope Steel has repeatedly flagged Australian electricity and gas costs as 3–4 times higher than in the US (or even higher for gas in some comparisons), threatening viability and the “Future Made in Australia” agenda.

Natural gas input costs for industry have surged 186% since 2000, with electricity up 181%—directly fueling investment freezes and contraction.

This isn’t abstract: manufacturers cite uncompetitive power prices as a key driver of offshoring or closures, with broader deindustrialization risks eroding economic diversity and living standards.

Critics argue the policy’s focus on variable renewables (subsidized and mandated) has prioritized emissions targets over reliable, affordable baseload, exporting jobs and emissions abroad while importing renewable hardware from coal-heavy China.

Retail bills remain elevated for households and businesses despite wholesale relief, compounded by transmission upgrades, storage needs, and coal plant extensions (e.g., in Queensland into the 2040s due to reliability gaps).

On the flip side, the transition has delivered measurable gains. Renewables reached a record >50% share in the NEM for the December 2025 quarter (up 5 points year-on-year), driven by strong growth in wind (+29%), grid-scale solar (+15%), rooftop solar, and batteries (output nearly tripled). Gas generation hit its lowest since 2000, even as overall demand rose.

Wholesale prices have responded: National averages fell to ~$92/MWh in 2025 (lowest since 2021), with double-digit drops in key states—validating claims that high renewable penetration can suppress spot prices during favorable conditions.

Further cuts of up to 10% are forecast for default market offers from July 2026, tied to more wind, solar, and batteries.

Investment is rebounding in places—BloombergNEF projects AUD 5.1 billion in utility-scale solar/wind for 2026 (mostly wind)—supported by schemes like the Capacity Investment Scheme, Rewiring the Nation, and a new $5 billion Net Zero Fund for industrial decarbonization.

CSIRO’s GenCost modeling continues to position renewables + storage as the least-cost path long-term.

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Australia’s ‘Renewable’ Obsession Decimates Industry

From CO2 Coalition

By Vijay Jayaraj

Australia’s “green energy” experiment has turned one of the most energy-rich countries into a high‑cost outlier that guts businesses that once anchored its prosperity. The claim that “renewables are cheaper” is a slogan for the propaganda of politicians and the marketing of green grifters who betray families and employers burdened by the bills.

Fall from Economic Stardom

Australia once held a competitive advantage that was the envy of the world, with power prices consistently below the average of OECD countries, which comprise 38 mostly successful economies. That advantage fueled its mines, factories and the standard of living. But is now gone.

But since the mid-2000s, while other nations managed their grids with varying degrees of competence, Australia’s electricity prices rose to being around 30% above the OECD average. This is a massive swing in competitiveness that no government spin can hide.

Driving Australia’s current trajectory is the mythical claim that so-called renewables – mainly wind and solar energy – are inherently cheap and that any short‑term pain will give way to lasting price declines.

However, long‑term data, both domestic and international, contradict that fable. The direct cost of wind and solar hardware has fallen, but the full system cost – including backup power, transmission and financial guarantees – has increased as their share in the mix grows. Politicians rarely highlight this distinction when they promise that “the sun and wind are free.” Although photons and breezes may cost nothing, converting them to electricity is difficult, land-intensive and expensive.

By 2020, Australia had recorded the largest residential price increase among the countries studied: 32% between 2010 and 2020 versus an 8% rise for the OECD. Over the same period, the generation mix shifted away from coal and towards weather‑dependent wind and solar.

 Devastating Effect of High Power Prices
The effect on the economy has been a gradual die-off of Australian manufacturing. Energy inputs – both electricity and natural gas – are often the largest variable costs for heavy industry. Australia’s manufacturing share of the economy plunged to a record low of 5% of gross domestic product in 2025.

Smelters have announced closures as rising electricity costs render heavy industry unviable. BlueScope Steel warns that energy costs in Australia are now three to four times higher than in the U.S., undermining the country’s vision of a “Future Made in Australia.”

Large industrial players are weighing exit strategies. Orica, the world’s biggest manufacturer of mining explosives and agricultural fertilizers, and BlueScope Steel have both signaled that the current environment is untenable. They have threatened to relocate Australian facilities to the United States.

Local cafes, metal fabricators and family-owned grocers are besieged by unmanageable costs. In the Northern Territory, 43% of surveyed businesses listed energy prices as a major challenge. The pain spans the nation, with energy being listed as a critical hurdle by a third of businesses in New South Wales, Australian Capital Territory and Victoria and by more than a quarter in Queensland.

This pattern of destruction is not unique to Australia. In Germany – poster child for the “green” transition – 55% of electricity is generated from wind and solar, producing the highest power prices in the world and, according to some, “the worst industrial crisis since World War II.”

Denmark, with around 70% wind and solar in the power mix, made it to the top five on 2023 price charts. Defenders of the green agenda point to countries like Norway or Paraguay as proof that 100% renewables is possible. However, these claims rely heavily on generous hydro endowments that few locales enjoy.

The fact is no modern economy has achieved wind and solar shares of more than 40% without substantial price hikes. Yet the Australian government has a target of 82% by 2030. This is economically suicidal, a guarantee for blackouts and a death blow to what remains of manufacturing.

Australia has lost its way, captured by a false narrative that treats carbon dioxide as planetary threat and dismisses affordability as an afterthought. Without a change, the country will continue to pay unnecessarily high electricity prices, as economic wreckage accumulates – one factory, one small business and one household at a time.

Originally published in California Globe on April 2, 2026.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO₂ Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India. He served as a research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia, Canada