Day: September 4, 2023

Renewable Fail: East Coast Aussie States Are Failing or About to Fail Energy Reliability Standards

First publishedย JoNova; A just published Australian Energy Market Operator report highlights the urgent โ€œopportunityโ€ for the provision of reliable electricity to Australiaโ€™s East Coast grid.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

First published JoNova; A just published Australian Energy Market Operator report highlights the urgent โ€œopportunityโ€ for the provision of reliable electricity to Australiaโ€™s East Coast grid.

2023 Electricity Statement of Opportunitiesย August 2023

With up to 62% of its coal fleet now expected to close before 20331, Australiaโ€™s NEM is perched on the edge of one of the largest transformations since the market was formed over 20 years ago. The scale of opportunity to meet an imminent and growing need for firm capacity, new forms of energy production, and significant consumer energy investments is unparalleled in Australiaโ€™s energy history. This ESOO shows that imminent and urgent investment is needed to meet this opportunity, or the reliability of the NEM will be at risk.

In this 2023 ESOO assessment:

When considering only energy supply infrastructure developments that meet AEMOโ€™sย commitment criteria2,ย AEMO forecasts larger reliability gapsย than were forecast in the February 2023ย Update to 2022 Electricity Statement of Opportunities, and in some cases, larger than forecast in the 2022 ESOO. Over the next 10 years, in the 2023 ESOO Central scenario, reliability risks are forecast to be higher than the relevant reliability standard requires in:

South Australiaย in summer 2023-24 (against the Interim Reliability Measure [IRM] of 0.0006% unserved energy [USE]) and from 2028-29 (against the reliability standard of 0.002% USE).

Victoriaย this coming summer and over the entire ESOO horizon against the IRM, and from 2026-27 against the reliability standard.

New South Walesย from 2025-26 against the reliability standard.

Queenslandย in 2029-30 and 2030-31 against the reliability standard.

Once federal and state government programs, actionable transmission developments, and orchestration of forecast consumer energy resources (CER) are also considered,ย beyond the short term, reliability risks have the potential to be managed within relevant standards over most of the next 10-year horizon.

While these programs and developments have not yet progressed far enough to implementation to meet the strict criteria to be included in the ESOO Central outlook, federal and state governments have policies and frameworks to develop and implement delivery plans.

All jurisdictions have a range of policies that support the development of new capacity to replace retiring generators. Each policy must now prioritise delivering the transmission, and renewable energy and firming generation they target, ahead of announced closures. Just-in-time investment may not maintain suitable reliability, and delivering on the current development opportunities is now essential.

The impact of potential coal, gas and diesel fuel shortfalls has been identified as a material risk to the reliability of the NEM. In addition to the need for new generation, transmission and other solutions, the ongoing availability of coal, gas and distillate fuels, and effective management of their supply chains, will be critical to the reliability of the NEM.

These forecasts highlight the high value of solutions in which resources owned by consumers, such as residential electricity generation and storage devices, and increased demand flexibility, can help meet power system needs. With a high level of consumer participation and coordination of consumer energy assets and demand to help meet power system needs, the need for utility-scale solutions would be much lower.

Read more: [Page 3-4]ย https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2023/2023-electricity-statement-of-opportunities.pdf?la=en&hash=D8CC2D9AC8D9F353194C9DD117095FB4

2023-Electricity-Statement-of-OpportunitiesHerunterladen

Once you cut through the โ€œopportunityโ€ doublespeak, the stark reality is South Australia has already fallen below the interim reliability measure. Other states are set to join them in the near future โ€“ NSW (2025-25), Victoria (2026-27) and Queensland (2029-30 and 2030-31).

Any businesses operating in South Australia, New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland are sometimes required by the government to curtain operations to reduce the risk of domestic supply blackouts during periods of peak demand, like heatwaves or cold snaps.

Why has the outlook suddenly worsened?

The big problem is a perfect storm of neglect of fossil fuel assets, and the failure of renewable systems and battery grid firming measures to contribute sufficiently to grid stability. The green electrify everything push is also forecast to drive up demand for grid electricity, just as grid stability is on its knees from lack of dispatchable capacity.

  • Generator unplanned outage rates are forecast higher than previously, reflecting recent trends of poor performance among some generator technologies.
  • AEMO has observed that the initial target delivery dates provided by developers of new generation and storage investments often have not accounted for delays that could occur during the project financing, planning, development and delivery stages of projects. To ensure the accuracy of its reliability outlook, AEMO now applies delays to reflect observed development and delivery risks of new projects in the reliability forecast.
  • New and improved weather data and modelling for renewable generation has improved the accuracy of variable renewable energy (VRE) correlations with maximum demand, identifying a higher forecast occurrence of low wind and high demand conditions in Victoria, resulting in higher forecast reliability risks for South Australia and Victoria.
  • Many new wind, solar, battery and pumped hydro developments have advanced sufficiently to be considered in the 2023 ESOO, however solutions which orchestrate and coordinate consumersโ€™ generation and storage devices to support reliability have not yet demonstrated success at significant scale. Consistent with other reliability input assumptions, AEMO has now only assumed consumers will install CER and make them available to be orchestrated to help meet power system needs at current levels; this is lower than the levels of CER orchestration previously assumed.
  • Forecasts of energy consumption and maximum demand are higher in some NEM regions, driven by projected electrification of households and businesses, and forecast expansion of industrial facilities.

Read more: [Page 4] Same link as above

When will the blackouts start biting? The coming southern hemisphere Summer, December this year to February, is looking very iffy in Victoria and South Australia.

2023-24 outlook

Reliability risks are forecast to be greater than the Interim Reliability Measure in South Australia and Victoria this summer. Any adverse conditions for wind or solar generation, which happens quite frequently with Victoriaโ€™s notoriously unpredictable Summer weather, coupled with expected El Nino heatwaves, could tip the grid in Victoria and South Australia over the brink.

  • Electricity consumption over the year is forecast to be marginally lower than in 2022-23, as growth in newly electrified loads (switching to electricity from alternative energy sources such as gas and diesel) is more than offset by business energy efficiency savings and lower household disposable income, lessening previously forecast growth.
  • Annual maximum demand forecasts for 2023-24, however, remain similar to those previously forecast, because consumer demand during hot weather is forecast to be less impacted by energy efficiency investments and potential consumer responses to high prices. Annual maximum demand occurs close to or after sunset in most regions, after the impact of distributed photovoltaics (PV) has subsided.
  • Approximately 3.4 gigawatts (GW) more new generation and storage capacity from a range of technologies is expected to be available compared to what was available last summer.
  • The reliability of the thermal (coal and gas) generation fleet generally stayed at historically poor levels in 2022-23, and most plant operators have advised that overall plant reliability is unlikely to materially improve.
  • Expected unserved energy (USE) is forecast to be above the IRM of 0.0006% USE in South Australia and Victoria in the coming year, although risks remain in all regions under extreme conditions. Table 1 shows the forecast risk for a larger USE outcome3 for the coming summer. The probability is provided for all possible maximum demand outcomes, and under 10% POE demand conditions. Factors that influence when and how USE occurs include occurrences of generator outages and high demand at the same time as low wind and solar generation conditions.
  • For the coming summer, the Bureau of Meteorology is currently advising that hot dry conditions, with elevated bushfire risks, and El Niรฑo weather patterns are likely. The maximum demand forecast range is forecast based on all climate conditions and does not target these specific forecast weather conditions. Hence there is an increased likelihood this summer that demand outcomes will fall in the upper end of the forecast range (that is, the 10% probability of exceedance [POE] forecast is more likely), in most regions.

Read more: [Page 5-6] Same link as above

What will bring relief to Australiaโ€™s faltering East Coast grid?

The AEMO included the development of hydrogen electrolyser energy storage capacity, as a major source of grid stability post 2032. Hydrogen energy storage technology which has not yet been developed.

โ€ฆ

Potential development of hydrogen electrolysers is forecast to increase NEM electricity consumption by up to 10% by 2032-335. The forecast for hydrogen electrolysis development has increased significantly since the 2022 ESOO, due to the introduction of the New South Wales Renewable Fuels Scheme, which is legislated to commence in 2024, and the South Australian Hydrogen Jobs Plan, which includes a 250 megawatts (MW) electrolyser with a target to commence operations in 2025-26.

Assuming that electrolysers operate to provide new energy options to consumers, including potential hydrogen-ready gas generators that are not yet advanced enough to consider in the Central scenario. The development of hydrogen generation sources is, however, noted among numerous jurisdictional plans.

Read more: [Page 7]ย Same link as above

But all predicted storage capacity, including all known pumped storage dam projects, even if completed on time, are insufficient to provide the backup and stability that the grid will require once coal plants are closed.

โ€ฆ

While generation, storage and transmission developments continue to connect to the power system, the assessment shows these committed and anticipated developments (generation, transmission and other solutions) are not yet sufficient to offset the forecast impact of higher electricity use and advised generator retirements. Delays to any other currently considered development may further worsen the reliability outlook.

โ€ฆ

A much larger pipeline of proposed generation and storage projects โ€“ totalling 173 GW of VRE and 74 GW of dispatchable resources (including battery, pumped hydro, and other technologies) โ€“ demonstrate the opportunity for the market to respond to emerging reliability gaps, if projects are developed in a timely manner. Numerous federal and state government schemes and programs have been implemented to further incentivise or fund the required developments in the NEM. 

โ€ฆRead more: [Page 9-10] Same link as above

The AEMO is open to ideas to fix the grid reliabilityย crisisย opportunity, they published a tender for reliable energy provision a few days after publishing their latest report. So if you happen to have a multi-gigalitre dam and hydro generator which you forgot to tell anyone about, tucked away on an alpine back paddock,ย the AEMO is waiting for your phone callย [h/t JoNova].

Hands up who wants to invest in energy intensive manufacturing jobs and building new factories in East Coast Australia?

The AEMO report provides the following helpful explanation to what the percentages on the vertical graph mean in terms of grid reliability.

0.0006% (the lower dashed line โ€œinterim reliability measureโ€):

When expected USE is forecast in a region at the level of the IRM, the following reliability risks are forecast:

  • USE events would statistically occur approximately once every six years.
  • Larger USE outcomes would occur approximately once every 10 years (equivalent to approximately 10% of average regional demand for five hours, or comprising multiple events that aggregate to this total).
  • Load shedding events of even greater magnitude are possible, particularly if combined with transmission outages, and/or persistent generator or transmission outages following power system security events.
  • Out of market mechanisms may be available and could be utilised to mitigate some of these risks with associated costs.

0.02% (the upper dashed line โ€œReliability Standardโ€):

When expected USE is forecast in a region at the level of the reliability standard of 0.002% USE, the following reliability risks are forecast:

  • USE events would occur approximately once in every three years.
  • Larger USE outcomes would occur approximately once every five years (equivalent to approximately12% of average regional demand for eight hours).
  • Load shedding events of even greater magnitude are possible, particularly if combined with transmission outages, and/or persistent generator or transmission outages following power system security events.
  • Out of market mechanisms may be available and could be utilised to mitigate some of these risks with associated costs.

According to page 18 of the report, The AEMO is considering retiring the 0.0006% interim reliability measure, or changing how it is calculated. In my opinion this re-consideration is likely because there doesnโ€™t seem to be any point keeping the current 0.0006% definition, given that all East Coast states other than Tasmania have or will shortly begin prolonged breaches of the interim reliability standard. The Net Zero push is explicitly mentioned as a reason the AEMO are considering redefinition or retirement of the interim reliability standard.

For more information on the devastating impact on grid reliability of the Net Zero push, click here.

UAH Global Temperature Update for August, 2023: +0.69 deg. C

The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for August 2023 was +0.69 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is a little above the July 2023 anomaly of +0.64 deg. C.

From Roy Spencer, PhD.

September 4th, 2023 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for August 2023 was +0.69 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is a little above the July 2023 anomaly of +0.64 deg. C.

The linear warming trend since January, 1979 now stands at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.19 C/decade over global-averaged land).

Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 20 months are:

YEARMOGLOBENHEM.SHEM.TROPICUSA48ARCTICAUST
2022Jan+0.03+0.06-0.00-0.23-0.12+0.68+0.10
2022Feb-0.00+0.01-0.01-0.24-0.04-0.30-0.50
2022Mar+0.15+0.28+0.03-0.07+0.22+0.74+0.02
2022Apr+0.27+0.35+0.18-0.04-0.25+0.45+0.61
2022May+0.17+0.25+0.10+0.01+0.60+0.23+0.20
2022Jun+0.06+0.08+0.05-0.36+0.46+0.33+0.11
2022Jul+0.36+0.37+0.35+0.13+0.84+0.56+0.65
2022Aug+0.28+0.32+0.24-0.03+0.60+0.50-0.00
2022Sep+0.24+0.43+0.06+0.03+0.88+0.69-0.28
2022Oct+0.32+0.43+0.21+0.04+0.16+0.93+0.04
2022Nov+0.17+0.21+0.13-0.16-0.51+0.51-0.56
2022Dec+0.05+0.13-0.03-0.35-0.21+0.80-0.38
2023Jan-0.04+0.05-0.14-0.38+0.12-0.12-0.50
2023Feb+0.08+0.170.00-0.11+0.68-0.24-0.12
2023Mar+0.20+0.24+0.16-0.13-1.44+0.17+0.40
2023Apr+0.18+0.11+0.25-0.03-0.38+0.53+0.21
2023May+0.37+0.30+0.44+0.39+0.57+0.66-0.09
2023June+0.38+0.47+0.29+0.55-0.35+0.45+0.06
2023July+0.64+0.73+0.56+0.87+0.53+0.91+1.43
2023Aug+0.69+0.88+0.51+0.86+0.94+1.54+1.25

The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for August, 2023 and a more detailed analysis by John Christy of the unusual July conditions, should be available within the next several days here.

Lower Troposphere:

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

Mid-Troposphere:

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt

Tropopause:

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt

Lower Stratosphere:

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt

The cavernous hole in American energy policy

In an abundant year for American energy policy ideas that are the equivalent of shooting the economy in the foot, one stands out for its simplicity: the giant, empty caverns known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Fromย CFACT

onย CFACT

In an abundant year for American energy policy ideas that are the equivalent of shooting the economy in the foot, one stands out for its simplicity: the giant, empty caverns known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

When gasoline prices surged in 2021, the Biden Administration first started tapping the SPR. It was just 11 months into a term that had seen the rapid rise in energy prices following the Administrationโ€™s open declaration of hostility toward the American oil and gas industry. The Russian invasion of Ukraine goosed prices higher, and the Administration again turned to the SPR in 2022 in an effort to show America that it was doing something to alleviate the pain at the pump. It drained the SPR to the lowest level in 40 years, while continued higher energy prices contributed to the highest inflation in 40 years.

The Administration bragged about the oil depletions as โ€œrecord releases,โ€ which is like gloating about emptying the household savings account to invest in a worthless boondoggle. That is exactly what happened; the SPR releases provided a few days of temporary relief before prices shot higher. As energy prices stayed high, inflation worsened.

Today, those giant storage caverns โ€“ created to aid the U.S. in a global energy crisis, not for political expediency โ€“ remain empty, with apparently no plan for them to be replenished. In fact, one report predicts it will take decades to restock the reserves from their current all-time low of a mere 20 days supply. Consumer Energy Alliance warned over a year ago that draining the SPR for political purposes without lifting restrictions on American oil and gas production would prove a costly mistake.

So here we are, watching gas prices streak past an eight-month high. At the same time, the Administration continues to send negative market signals by โ€“ for the first time in history โ€“ failing to produce a new federal offshore leasing plan, as required by Congress. Due over a year ago, it will not be ready until the end of this year, according to the Interior Department.

In late July, the National Marine Fisheries Service agreed to restrict oil drilling activity in more than 10 million acres right in the middle of the Congressionally mandated Lease Sale 261 in the Western Gulf of Mexico. The unprecedented terms of a legal settlement with a coalition of environmentalist groups also include restrictions on oil and gas vessels while other vessels traversing those waters are exempt. This action could severely curtail energy development opportunities in the Gulf.

In sum, we no longer have a meaningful SPR, nor a plan to refill it; we are taking overt steps to kill the offshore oil and gas industry despite the clear instructions of Congress to develop the Gulf.

Ironically, just as two executive branch agencies do everything to make offshore oil and gas drilling unviable, the Administration touts its support for conservation and National Parks under the Great American Outdoors Act. This law mandates that โ€œ50% of all energy development revenues from oil, gas, coal, or alternative or renewable energy development on Federal land and water, up to $1.9 billion per fiscal yearโ€ must be used for our nationโ€™s parks and conservation. With more development in the Gulf, much of the funding will dry up.

The policies coming out of Washington mirror those that failed in Europe, California, and New York. Look at the cancellations or renegotiations of offshore wind contracts in the Northeast to account for higher financing and materials costs. This means that families relying on that electricity will be paying more. As for California, it is still a basket case railing against nuclear power and natural gas on one hand, while quietly extending the life of its sole nuclear plant and continuing to use natural gas to keep the lights on.

These are the practicalities dictated by realities that have smashed headlong into ideology. Our only hope is that the poorly thought-out policies will lose their luster when votes may be at risk. However, ideology is notable for its persistence in the face of failure. To wit, this just in from New York: Ratepayers in New York City will see their bills go up by roughly 20% to pay for the State of New Yorkโ€™s ill-conceived energy policy.

Briana Delvecchio, a resident of the suburb of White Plains, shared a too-familiar concern: โ€œItโ€™s upsetting. And I feel bad for my parents. They pay over $800 a month and my mom would like to retire and she canโ€™t. Itโ€™s ridiculous, itโ€™s not fair. How are we going to live?โ€

Our energy policy is so broken that it took a second Supreme Court decision, which follows an Act of Congress, to give final clearance for the Mountain Valley Pipeline to begin construction.

Everyone desires cleaner energy and an improving environment โ€“ and we are getting it. For the past two decades, the U.S. has had the largest emissions reductions on the planet, while China contributes 66% of the developed worldโ€™s emissions every year.

American families and businesses are paying far too much for energy policy gone mad without any clear indication that what they are paying so much for will have any meaningfully positive impact on our shared environment.

Itโ€™s simple. We can, we must, and we areโ€ฆ producing the energy we need while improving our environment. We are proving that thoughtful energy diversity that allows space for wind, solar, oil, natural gas, and nuclear will work for all Americans by delivering affordable, reliable, and environmentally responsible energy. The con of an ideologically driven energy policy that picks winners and sets arbitrary deadlines is clear. Energy and environmental improvement go hand in hand, and there is more than one road to success. Those who block the roads donโ€™t have our interests at heart.

We only have ourselves to blame if we donโ€™t stand up and tell our elected representatives to correct course rapidly and ignore those who offer false choices, pitting one energy resource against another.

If those forces are left unchecked, our wallets will be as empty as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

This article originally appeared atย Real Clear Energy

Author


David Holt

David Holt is president of Consumer Energy Alliance, a U.S. consumer energy and environment advocate supporting affordable, reliable energy for working families, seniors and businesses across the country.

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Climate Change Hasnโ€™t Set the World on Fireโ€“Bjorn Lomborg

Research has revealed that wildfires are on the decline, despite the mainstream narrative that they have increased because of โ€œclimate change.โ€

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Mike Rennoldson

Research has revealed that wildfires are on the decline, despite the mainstream narrative that they have increased because of โ€œclimate change.โ€

Danish author and academic Bjorn Lomborgโ€™s analysis, published in the Wall Street Journal, reveals a large disparity between the actual number of wildfires and the concern raised over them by the mainstream media and politicians.

โ€œClimate change hasnโ€™t set the world on fire,โ€ Lomborg declared. โ€œIt turns out the percentage of the globe that burns each year has been declining since 2001.โ€

Lomborgโ€™s claim is confirmed by the satellite data from the Global Wildfire Information System, which records a consistent decline in the extent of burned areas since the early 2000s.

โ€œIn the early 2000s, 3% of the worldโ€™s land area burned each year. Last year, fire burned 2.2% of the worldโ€™s land area, a new record low,โ€ Lomborg stated.

โ€œYet you would struggle to find that reported anywhere,โ€ he added.

However, despite wildfires occurring less often, reporting on โ€œclimate changeโ€ has increased by 400% between 2010 and 2020.

Lomborg pointed out that while satellites reveal that the world is burning less, the media continues to claim that there are more fires as a result of โ€œclimate change.โ€

โ€œThis falsely scares everyone,โ€ Lomborgย declared. โ€œAnd thatโ€™s not okay.โ€

https://archive.ph/WfDJh

Full story here.

The original WSJ article can be read here.

The Green Globalists Behind Ulez โ€“ and What They Have Planned Next

Thereโ€™s a quite a lot of heat and noise being generated at the moment about London Mayor Khanโ€™s expanded Ulez (Ultra-Low Emission Zone) which is supposed to start at the beginning of this week. But what few seem to have noticed is that Khanโ€™s Ulez is just a very small part of a much larger programme to control how our rulers believe we should live our lives.

From The Daily Sceptic

BYย DAVID CRAIG

Thereโ€™s a quite a lot of heat and noise being generated at the moment about London Mayor Khanโ€™s expanded Ulez (Ultra-Low Emission Zone) which is supposed to start at the beginning of this week. But what few seem to have noticed is that Khanโ€™s Ulez is just a very small part of a much larger programme to control how our rulers believe we should live our lives.

Khanโ€™s Ulez is part of the C40 programme:

C40 is a global network of mayors of the worldโ€™s leading cities that are united in action to confront the climate crisis. It was founded in 2005 as C20, and has since expanded to its current network of 96 cities, including London.

Hereโ€™s a link to the C40 website, in case you think Iโ€™m making this up.

Hereโ€™s an overview of what the mayors of the 96 C40 cities are planning for us:

Itโ€™s the usual measures to make our lives poorer, more restricted, more miserable and more controlled by our rulers:

  • buying fewer clothes each year and making those clothes last longer
  • eating less meat and fewer dairy products
  • taking fewer flights
  • โ€˜enhancing building utilisationโ€™ which could sound a lot like squeezing ever more people into ever smaller homes
  • reduced car ownership and reduced travel by car
  • making all our technological devices last longer โ€“ does that mean restrictions on how often we can buy new devices as part of our โ€˜individual carbon budgetsโ€™?

And guess who is the C40 Chair?

Yup. itโ€™s our favouritest mayor โ€“ Mayor Khan.

Many people have been wondering why Mayor Khan is implementing the Ulez expansion when not only Londoners but also several Labour politicians (including Starmer) seem to be against it, blaming it for Labourโ€™s failure to win the Uxbridge by-election.

Well, hopefully you are now aware that the expanded Ulez is just a tiny part of a much larger globalist agenda which looks suspiciously like a form of climate-catastrophist lockdown for us โ€˜useless eatersโ€™. So, it should be clear why Mayor Khan is driving this through in spite of the howls of opposition and in spite of the doubts of his own Labour Party.

Thereโ€™s a lot more I could write about the C40 Cities assault on our lifestyles. But you can go to the C40 website if youโ€™d like more information. However, thereโ€™s just one thing I should add โ€“ I found it interesting to look at who is actually funding this horror story. Hereโ€™s a link to the funders page.

Major funders include eco-organisations such as the Climateworks Foundation, Global Environmental Facility, the Climate Change Collaboration and the European Climate Foundation; Governments such as the U.K. Government, the German Government and the Danish Government and foundations set up by billionaires such as Bloomberg Philanthropies, IKEA, the Hewlett Foundation, Fondation Lโ€™Orรฉal, Google and Novo Nordisk.

Moreover, there is one more major funder which surely deserves a special mention โ€“ the Open Society Foundations. The Open Society Foundations website explains โ€œGeorge Soros is the founder of the Open Society Foundations. He has given away more than $32 billion of his personal fortune to fund the Open Society Foundationsโ€™ work around the world.โ€

So who is Mayor Khan really working for when he implements his expanded Ulez as part of his C40 agenda? Londoners? The Labour party? Or the eco-fanatics and the multi-billionaire Davos globalists? Iโ€™ll leave you to decide.

David Craig is the author of There is No Climate Crisis, available as an e-book or paperback from Amazon.

Itโ€™s The Asphalt, Stupid! New Study Suggests Global Warming Mostly An Urban Problem

A new study published in the scientific peer-reviewed journal,ย Climate, by 37 researchers from 18 countries suggests that current estimates of global warming are contaminated by urban warming biases.

From NoTricksZone

Byย P Gosselinย onย 3. September 2023

A new study published in the scientific peer-reviewed journal,ย Climate, by 37 researchers from 18 countries suggests that current estimates of global warming are contaminated by urban warming biases.

Press release from CERES Science, hat-tip: Klimanachrichten

The study also suggests that the solar activity estimates considered in the most recent reports by the UNโ€™s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) likely underestimated the role of the Sun in global warming since the 19th century.

It is well-known that cities are warmer than the surrounding countryside. While urban areas only account for less than 4% of the global land surface, many of the weather stations used for calculating global temperatures are located in urban areas. For this reason, some scientists have been concerned that the current global warming estimates may have been contaminated by urban heat island effects. In their latest report, the IPCC estimated that urban warming accounted for less than 10% of global warming. However, this new study suggests that urban warming might account for up to 40% of the warming since 1850.

The study also found that the IPCCโ€™s chosen estimate of solar activity appeared to have prematurely ruled out a substantial role for the Sun in the observed warming.

Solar activity plays a role

When the authors analyzed the temperature data only using the IPCCโ€™s solar dataset, they could not explain any of the warming since the mid-20th century. That is, they replicated the IPCCโ€™s iconic finding that global warming is mostly human-caused. However, when the authors repeated the analysis using a different estimate of solar activity โ€“ one that is often used by the scientific community โ€“ they found that most of the warming and cooling trends of the rural data could actually be explained in terms of changing solar activity.

The lead author of the study, Dr. Willie Soon, of the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES-Science.com) described the implications of their findings,

โ€œFor many years, the general public has been assuming that the science on climate change is settled. This new study shows that this is not the case.โ€

Another author of the study, Prof. Ana Elias, the Director of the Laboratorio de Ionosfera, Atmรณsfera Neutra y Magnetosfera (LIANM) at the Universidad Nacional de Tucumรกn, Argentina, explained:

โ€œThis analysis opens the door to a proper scientific investigation into the causes of climate change.โ€

This study finds similar conclusions to another study that was recently published in a separate scientific peer-reviewed journal,ย Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics. This other study involved many of the same co-authors (led by Dr. Ronan Connolly, also at the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences). It took a different approach to analyzing the causes of climate change โ€“ using an additional 25 estimates of solar activity and three extra temperature estimates.

Intense Propaganda Campaign to Push Climate Crisis

Click-bait media and alarmists social media influencers are pushing hard, and cherrypicking data to rant it has been the hottest summer evuh? The scientifically uniformed and politicians ( I know that is redundant) blame CO2 and fossil fuels.

From Jim Steele

Click-bait media and alarmists social media influencers are pushing hard, and cherrypicking data to rant it has been the hottest summer evuh? The scientifically uniformed and politicians ( I know that is redundant) blame CO2 and fossil fuels.

But there are also other dynamics good scientists examine to explain changes in temperature.

The new paper The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850โ€“2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data

found ” urbanization bias remains a substantial problem for the global land temperature data; (2) it is still unclear which (if any) of the many TSI [Total Solar Irradiance] time series in the literature are accurate estimates of past TSI;”

https://mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/9/179โ€ฆ

US climate scientists created the US Climate Reference Network in order to filter out urban heat island effects on the ballyhooed global temperature, by creating a network of weather stations in more natural settings.

As of July 2023, USCRN data doesn’t suggest any abnormal warming since 2005 and exposes the dishonest climate crisis campaign.

How the UHI and landscapes cause hotter temperatures is totally undeniable, (unless you are pushing a climate crisis)

Check out the hotspots in Atlanta, GA. But alarmist claim it is “global warming” LOL

Chinese Whispers

For some weeks I have been watching videos on YouTube showing terrible images of devastating floods in northern China, in the Beijing region. That the images are terrible, and that the floods are devastating, there can be no doubt. So much so that Chinaโ€™s weather in the summer of 2023 seemed to me to fit the bill nicely for a bit of alarmism from the usual suspects (the BBC and the Guardian) to hype it up and mutter darkly about the โ€œclimate crisisโ€. And yet for a long time I could find no such reporting.

From Climate Scepticism

By ย MARK HODGSON

For some weeks I have been watching videos on YouTube showing terrible images of devastating floods in northern China, in the Beijing region. That the images are terrible, and that the floods are devastating, there can be no doubt. So much so that Chinaโ€™s weather in the summer of 2023 seemed to me to fit the bill nicely for a bit of alarmism from the usual suspects (the BBC and the Guardian) to hype it up and mutter darkly about the โ€œclimate crisisโ€. And yet for a long time I could find no such reporting.

True, quite a bit of hype was devoted to a claimed high temperature record in a remote part of China where temperatures had not been measured with any accuracy (or at all) until recently. It was widely reported (though surprisingly, not with the usual levels of intensity) that temperatures at Sanbao in the Turpan depression reached 52.2C, thus setting a new high temperature record for China. Ironically, this record was set at a location which, in winter, can experience temperatures of -50C. Clearly itโ€™s an incredibly inhospitable location, and therefore itโ€™s no surprise that there are no weather records for Sanbao until very recently. As Paul Homewood said, in hisย de-bunkย of this story:

Quite clearly, any record temperature set in the Turpan is meaningless and cannot be compared to other locations in China. It is merely the product of a micro climate.

There is also a second issue here. Sanbao has no official listing or any historical data, not according to KNMI at least. And the Shanghai Daily reported in 2010 that there were only three weather stations in the Turpan โ€“ Turpan City, Toksun and Dongkan, all at a much higher elevation than 150m below sea level.

In short we have no way of knowing whether it has been hotter in Saobao in the past, or whether the thermometer there is even properly sited and maintained.

You might just as well claim a record temperature next to the runway at Heathrow!

However, I digress, since my intention is mostly to write about the floods in China this year. After something of a delay the BBC did get around toย reporting this story, and did so by giving the Guardian (never knowingly outdone when it comes to dramatic climate headlines) a run for its money with the heading โ€œChinaโ€™s summer of climate destructionโ€. It tells us:

Chinaโ€™s summer this year has seen both extreme heat and devastating floods.

And the flooding this time around has struck areas where such weather has been unheard of, with scientists โ€“ blaming climate change โ€“ warning that the worst is yet to come.

Rather strangely, in attempting to suggest (without actually using the word) that the floods are unprecedented in the areas in question, the BBC quotes a 38 year old as saying that they have never seen a flood there. In the long history of China, that is no time at all. However, as the article goes on to tell us, even Dr Zhao Li, from Greenpeace East Asia, admits that the increase in flood numbers can be partially explained by China developing better systems to monitor and record flood data.

As for the floods occurring in areas where a 38 year old has never seen them before, there is a man-made explanation, but it isnโ€™t climate change:

Officials in China tried to ease the impact of recent floods by using a system of dams of waterways to change their direction.

The problem is that the water has to go somewhere, and it was Zhuozhou in Hebei Province which took the hit.

These are tough choices but, in the end, it becomes a government decision over who must suffer for the greater good.

Paul Homewood also debunks claims about the floods here, by picking up on that last point, and also pointing out that Chinaโ€™s production of cereal crops continues to show bumper yields, increasing six-fold in the last 60 years. While this may have a lot to do with agricultural improvements since the chaos of Maoโ€™s massively destructive Cultural Revolution, crops donโ€™t seem to be badly affected by climate change in China.

However, there is another point that Paul didnโ€™t make in his piece, and that is that climate extremes (or โ€œclimate destructionโ€, as the BBC would have it) are nothing new in China. Wikipedia devotes a page to natural disasters in China, and it is heavily weighted towards 21st century floods. Whether it is due to a natural bias in favour of catastrophising 21st century climate, whether the 21st century really has been more catastrophic, or (as I suspect) because we have detailed weather records only for the recent past, is a moot point. Nevertheless, even Wikipedia has to mention (though not in any detail) the 1851-1855 Yellow River floods (yes, they lasted for five years) which โ€œresulted in a change of theโ€ฆ riverโ€™s course, thereafter emptying into the Bohai Sea rather than into the Yellow Sea. This natural disaster is thought to have been a major cause of the Taiping Rebellion and Nian Rebellion.โ€

The 1931 floods rightly have aย pageย of their own:

From 1928 to 1930, China was afflicted by a long drought. The subsequent winter of 1930โ€“31 was particularly harsh, creating large deposits of snow and ice in mountainous areas. In early 1931, melting snow and ice flowed downstream and arrived in the middle course of the Yangtze during a period of heavy spring rain. Ordinarily, the region experienced three periods of high water during the spring, summer and fall, respectively; however, in early 1931, there was a single continuous deluge. By June, those living in low areas had already been forced to abandon their homes. The summer was also characterized by extreme cyclonic activity. In July of that year alone, nine cyclones hit the region, which was significantly above the average of two per year. Four weather stations along the Yangtze River reported rain totalling over 600mm (24in) for the month. The water flowing through the Yangtze reached its highest level since record-keeping began in the mid-nineteenth century. That autumn, further heavy rain added to the problem and some rivers did not return to their normal courses until November.

The floods inundated approximately 180,000 square kilometres (69,000sqmi) โ€“ an area equivalent in size to England and half of Scotland, or the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut combined. The high-water mark recorded on 19 August at Hankou in Wuhan showed water levels 16m (53ft) above the average, an average of 1.7m (5.6ft) above the Shanghai Bund. In Chinese, this event is commonly known asย ๆฑŸๆทฎๆฐด็พ, which roughly translates to โ€œYangtze-Huai Flood Disaster.โ€ This name, however, fails to capture the massive scale of flooding. Waterways throughout much of the country were inundated, particularly the Yellow River and Grand Canal. The eight most seriously affected provinces were Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Henan and Shandong. Beyond the core flood zone, areas as far south as Guangdong, as far north as Manchuria, and as far west as Sichuan were also inundated.

It is estimated that 53 million people may have been affected by the floods, and depending on whose estimates one believes, the dead may have numbered anywhere between 400,000 and four million. Widespread destruction was caused to cities, crops were destroyed on a vast scale, and disease was rife.

Just four years later, there was again terribleย flooding on the Yangtse. Wikipedia tells us that deforestation exacerbated the floods (shades ofย Pakistanโ€™s recent floods, methinks. And as the Wikipedia article makes clear, flooding on the Yangtse River has been a perennial issue:

The first major flood of the Yangtze River recorded in modern history occurred in 1911. Historical reports have indicated that the major flood covered 1,126 square kilometres and led to major devastation in Shanghai. It was reported that more than 200,000 died and hundreds of thousands were left homeless and destitute. Additionally, the flood also ruined important crops in surrounding farmland and destroyed food supplies in the cities and towns in the region.

So much for โ€œmodernโ€ history. Fortunately, we have records of weather-related disasters in China before the twentieth century, and sadly there is no shortage of them. I have on my book shelves a biography of the Chinese Dowager Empress Cixi by Jung Chang, and it mentions a few of these incidents that occurred throughout Cixiโ€™s life. I assume that only those that are central to the bookโ€™s narrative receive a mention. They are also not indexed, so I list the three references that I spotted from a quick perusal of the book.

On page 124 we learn:

โ€ฆbetween 1876 and 1878, nearly half the Chinese provinces and up to 200 million people were hit by floods, drought and swarms of locusts โ€“ the biggest succession of natural calamities in more than 200 years and one of the worst in recorded Chinese history. Millions died of famine and disease, especially typhus.

Page 140:

Customs revenue helped save millions of lives. In โ€ฆ1888, when the country was struck by floods, earthquakes and other natural disasters, it could afford to spend ten million taels of silver to buy rice to feed the population.

Page 265:

In spring 1900, while Shandong was relieved by rainfall, the region surrounding Beijing was struck by a devastating drought. A contemporary missionary wrote: โ€˜For the first time since the great famine in 1878 no winter wheat to speak of had been plantedโ€ฆUnder the most favourable circumstances the spring rains are almost invariably insufficient, but that year they were almost wholly lacking. The ground was baked so hard that no crops could be put inโ€ฆโ€™.

It can be clearly seen that China has a very long history of weather-related disasters. The above sketch does no more than scratch the surface. Perhaps, then, it is no great surprise that the Chinese authorities seem to be utterly unconcerned (regardless of the platitudes they mouth to western politicians) about greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. China has seen it all before, and what is occurring today is certainly not as bad as much that has happened in the past. Which brings us to a recent Guardian article with the heading โ€œChina continues coal spree despite climate goalsโ€ and the sub-heading โ€œWorldโ€™s biggest carbon emitter approving equivalent of two new coal plants a week, analysis showsโ€.

Given that China is responsible on an ongoing basis for around 30% of man-made greenhouse gas emissions each year, it is probably the only country in the world which might, by achieving net zero emissions, conceivably make a difference to any effects on the climate supposedly caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Yet clearly its leaders have no intention of doing any such thing, and its recent โ€œ summer of climate destructionโ€ isnโ€™t a relevant factor so far as they are concerned. It does rather make one wonder why politicians in developed countries, especially the UK (responsible annually for around 3% of the volume of Chinaโ€™s emissions) are so desperate to achieve net zero, regardless of the cost. The Chinese have no doubt not forgotten the humiliations heaped upon them by European nations in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Their leaders must think it a wondrous thing that those same nations are now so willing to destroy their economies in the name of net zero, while apparently believing Chinaโ€™s hollow promises to do the same. Revenge is a dish best served cold, even if it does occasionally reach 52.2C in remote parts of China.

Australia to see โ€˜ongoingโ€™ blackouts if coal-fired power ‘isnโ€™t usedโ€™

The Australian Chief Political Correspondent Geoff Chambers says it is โ€œpretty obviousโ€ from all the warnings if coal-fired power isnโ€™t used Australia will see blackouts both over the summer and ongoing.

Sky News Australia

The Australian Chief Political Correspondent Geoff Chambers says it is โ€œpretty obviousโ€ from all the warnings if coal-fired power isnโ€™t used Australia will see blackouts both over the summer and ongoing.

โ€œWe will see blackouts over summer and ongoing as well until there is enough gas, pumped hydro and renewables in the system,โ€ Mr Chambers told Sky News host Sharri Markson.

Electric vehicles catch fire after being exposed to saltwater from Hurricane Idalia

The Idalia vehicles were apparently flooded with salt water. My question โ€“ could salt spray from a windy day at the beach also trigger a deadly battery fire?

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

h/t James Stagg; The Idalia vehicles were apparently flooded with salt water. My question โ€“ could salt spray from a windy day at the beach also trigger a deadly battery fire?

Electric vehicles catch fire after being exposed to saltwater from Hurricane Idalia

โ€œSaltwater exposure can trigger combustion in lithium-ion batteries. If possible, transfer your vehicle to higher ground,โ€ the Palm Beach fire department wrote in a Facebook post.ย 

Two electric vehicles in Palm Beach, Florida caught fire after being exposed to saltwater from Hurricane Idalia, according to reports.

Officials from the fire department said that both cars were Teslas and stated that the rechargeable car batteries might combust if exposed to saltwater.ย 

โ€œIf you own a hybrid or electric vehicle that has come into contact with saltwater due to recent flooding within the last 24 hours, it is crucial to relocate the vehicle from your garage without delay,โ€ the department wrote in aย Facebook post. โ€œSaltwater exposure can trigger combustion in lithium-ion batteries. If possible, transfer your vehicle to higher ground.โ€ย 

The warning also extended to other vehicles with lithium-ion batteries such asย electric golf carts, scooters and bicycles.

Read more: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/transportation/electric-vehicles-catch-fire-after-being-exposed-saltwater-hurricane

Obviously the lesson in the case of hurricanes, if you live somewhere which might be flooded, is move the electric vehicles outdoors, away from anything you care about. Of course, putting your vehicle in harms way might affect your insurance claim, so please get professional advice before acting on this suggestion.

What about lesser exposure to salt spray? For example, occasionally in Australia windy weather kicks up salt foam, which covers the foreshore, without the need for an actual hurricane or cyclone.

Even when you donโ€™t have something as obvious as salt foam, anything parked near the sea on a windy day gets exposed to a continuous, penetrating, near invisible spray of salt. On windy days, after parking by the sea, you usually have to use the windscreen washer to clean off the layer of salt before driving the vehicle.

I donโ€™t know if that penetrating salt spray can wreak the same damage as floodwater. Maybe it just takes longer. But this is certainly a question I would be asking myself, if I owned an electric vehicle.

Even away from the ocean there are weather phenomena which could cause an accumulation of salt on vital engine components. A lot of desert environments, the dust contains significant amounts of salt. That dust gets in everywhere.

Salt buildup could be an explanation for some of the spontaneous combustion electric vehicle disasters weโ€™ve seen over the years. The salt could slowly accumulate in layers on critical electrical components of the vehicle, until one day, when atmospheric conditions are just right, moisture causes the salt layer coating the vehicle components to become electrically conducting, a short circuit forms, and the electric vehicle catches fire and explodes.

For more information about some of the bad things which can happen to electric vehicles, and why they are bad for the environment, click here.