Day: January 6, 2025

Horse Manure, Climate Change, and Nuclear Energy

The “Great Manure Crisis” of the late 19th century offers some serious lessons for those worried about the “existential threat” of global warming from CO2 emissions.   

From Cliff Mass Weather Blog

By CliffMass

The “Great Manure Crisis” of the late 19th century offers some serious lessons for those worried about the “existential threat” of global warming from CO2 emissions.   

A predicted crisis that never occurred because of new technology.

Just before the dawn of the 20th century, there was desperate talk about the huge accumulation of horse manure on the streets of major world cities.  Not only was rising levels of horse poop inhibiting travel, but it threatened to become a major health hazard.  For example, New York City had 150,000 horses, each producing 15-30 pounds of manure daily.  And yes, tens of thousands of gallons of urine.

Extrapolating the problem, not unlike current climate activists projecting the effects of global warming during the coming century, the Times of London in 1894 predicted: “in fifty years, every street in London would be buried under nine feet of manure.”  People were encouraged to travel less, avoid unnecessary trips, work at home, and collect the refuse their animals produced.   

Sounds familiar?

You can also imagine the stories in the Seattle Times (then known as the Seattle Daily Times) if some wealthy Seattle foundation had given them funds for a “Health Lab”:

This terrible poop crisis never happened. Why?

Because of a new transportation technology, powered by the internal combustion engine.

A good lesson for us today: it is problematic to extrapolate problems into the future assuming technologies will remain static.

Today we have a new crisis dominating the media, global warming resulting from increasing greenhouse gases.

Yes, CO2 and other greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing due to human emissions, and the earth is slowly warming as a result.

But it is silly to simply extrapolate rising greenhouse gas concentrations into the future because energy production technology will profoundly change during the next decades….and I am not talking about solar or wind power.

Nuclear power, starting with fission, but rapidly displaced by fusion power, will provide essentially limitless clean energy.

The False Hope of Wind and Solar

There is a lot of talk about wind and solar being the solution to the global warming problem, but the truth is that they will only make a minor contribution for many reasons, with their intermittency (only available during the day and during windy periods), environmental impacts, and low energy density being significant problems.   

Furthermore, the demand for energy, and particularly electricity, is going up much faster than renewables can be installed.  Why?   Because billions of people are moving out of poverty and the huge energy demands of data centers.  To name only a few.

Consider the U.S.  energy consumption statistics (below).   Energy use has increased rapidly during the past decades with fossil fuels still dominating (but more gas and less coal).  Wind and solar are very small in comparison.

The U.S. is actually one of the most renewable-friendly nations.  Considering the whole world (below), fossil fuels are even more dominant.

Solar and wind are not mankind’s long-term energy solutions.  

Nuclear is.  Fission in the short term and fusion in the long term.  

Fission power is heavily used in some nations (such as in France, where 70% of the electricity is from fission) and today about 9% of world energy is from fission.  No major safety issues and fission power is clean, with no air quality issues.   New designs of small modular fission reactors will make them much cheaper, more reliable, and make melt-downs impossible.

Major energy users, such as Amazon, are already committing to using such new technology fission reactors.

And there is fusion.   Fusion power is essentially limitless and does not produce nuclear waste.

The uninformed make jokes about fusion always being 20 years away.   They are wrong.  There are no theoretical reasons in the way of practical fusion reactors.  Dozens of private sector firms are working on prototypes, including Seattle’s Helion.   

Break-even fusion has already been achieved.

Microsoft has agreed to purchase fusion-generated power from Helion starting in 2028

Folks…this going to happen.  Even if delayed a decade or two, fusion power will completely change the world’s energy story in the same way the internal combustion engine ended the manure “crisis” over a century ago.

And one more thing.  With virtually unlimited energy from fusion, we can take CO2 out of the atmosphere, something called CO2 sequestration.  Several companies, such as Carbon Engineering of BC, are already working on prototypes.

So next time you hear end-of-the-world catastrophic predictions about global warming, think about horse waste. 😀

‘Mystery Volcano’ that Lowered Global Temperatures Nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit in 1831 Identified

Meanwhile “Great Rift” volcano in Ethiopia erupts after seismic swarm, leading to evacuations.

From Watts Up With That?

Meanwhile “Great Rift” volcano in Ethiopia erupts after seismic swarm, leading to evacuations.

From Legal Insurrection

Posted by Leslie Eastman 

Whenever I write about climate change, I often note that volcanoes can have significant impacts on the global climate.

A new example has been recently revealed, as a ‘mystery volcano’ that erupted in 1831 and significantly cooled Earth’s climate has finally been identified as Zavaritskii on Simushir Island, part of the Kuril Islands archipelago between Russia and Japan.

This eruption was one of the most powerful of the 19th century, releasing an enormous amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The Earth-caused emissions resulted in a decrease of approximately one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in the annual average temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere.

The challenge in locating the volcano was due to its remote location.

While the year of this historic eruption was known, the volcano’s location was not. Researchers recently solved that puzzle by sampling ice cores in Greenland, peering back in time through the cores’ layers to examine sulfur isotopes, grains of ash and tiny volcanic glass shards deposited between 1831 and 1834.

Using geochemistry, radioactive dating and computer modeling to map particles’ trajectories, the scientists linked the 1831 eruption to an island volcano in the northwest Pacific Ocean, they reported Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

..Before the scientists’ findings, Zavaritskii’s last known eruption was in 800 BC.

“For many of Earth’s volcanoes, particularly those in remote areas, we have a very poor understanding of their eruptive history,” said lead study author Dr. William Hutchison, a principal research fellow in the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of St. Andrews in the United Kingdom.

“Zavaritskii is located on an extremely remote island between Japan and Russia. No one lives there and historical records are limited to a handful of diaries from ships that passed these islands every few years,” Hutchison told CNN in an email.

To find the volcano, researchers compared the chemistry of microscopic shards of ash extracted from ice cores drilled in Greenland with samples from the Zavaritskii caldera. They determined it was a perfect match.

“Finding the match took a long time and required extensive collaboration with colleagues from Japan and Russia, who sent us samples collected from these remote volcanoes decades ago,” Hutchison says.

“The moment in the lab when we analyzed the two ashes together, one from the volcano and one from the ice core, was a genuine eureka moment. I couldn’t believe the numbers were identical. After this, I spent a lot of time delving into the age and size of the eruption in Kuril records to truly convince myself that the match was real.”

Meanwhile, recent volcanic activity at Mount Dofan in Ethiopia has caused significant concern and prompted evacuations in the surrounding area.

Hundreds of people in a rural part of Ethiopia, 165km (100 miles) north-east of the capital, Addis Ababa, have been leaving their homes in panic as a nearby volcano has been showing signs of a possible eruption, a local chief told the BBC’s Afaan Oromoo service.

The smoke coming from Mount Dofan that began around 17:00 local time (14:00 GMT) on Thursday “has a fiery plume and it’s very high,” Sultan Kemil said.

In a video posted by the Ethiopian Geological Institute on its Facebook page steam and debris can be seen shooting out from the mountain.

In recent weeks, there have been more than a dozen seismic events around Awash Fentale – an earthquake-prone area of Ethiopia’s Afar region.

The seismic activity is part of the ongoing geological processes in the Great Rift Valley, where new oceanic crust is being generated.

Personally, I am looking forward to seeing how eco-activists connect the rifting to SUVs.

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1875253283654382007

The biodiversity “CRISIS” – What Canadians Need to Know

Bill C-73, the Nature Accountability Bill, an Act respecting transparency and accountability in relation to certain commitments Canada has made under the Convention on Biological Diversity, was introduced into Parliament on November 22, 2021, but has not proceeded to Second Reading or Committee stage. Consequently, there has been almost no attention paid to a law that could rival the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act in terms of its adverse effects on Canadians’ lives.

Biodiversity “CRISIS

From Friends of Science Calgary

Contributed by Robert Lyman © 2025. Robert Lyman’s bio can be read here.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Bill C-73, the Nature Accountability Bill, an Act respecting transparency and accountability in relation to certain commitments Canada has made under the Convention on Biological Diversity, was introduced into Parliament on November 22, 2021, but has not proceeded to Second Reading or Committee stage. Consequently, there has been almost no attention paid to a law that could rival the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act in terms of its adverse effects on Canadians’ lives.

In this article, I will describe the background to the proposed legislation, including the efforts that are being made to present the loss of biological “diversity” as posing a catastrophic threat to Canada and the world and one that, like climate change, requires urgent and radical changes to economic systems.  In a subsequent article, I will summarize the main provisions of the proposed legislation and comment on their potential implications for Canada.

The controversies over biodiversity often concern claims that biological diversity (i.e. in simplest terms, larger numbers of species) is healthy not just for nature by for human beings as well. The biodiversity issues are often portrayed as centred on the rate at which species are becoming extinct but actually involve a wide range of questions about habitat loss, species health and the alleged effects of human-induced climate change.

A study published in 2019 by the intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) warned that: “human actions threaten more species with global extinction now than ever before” and that “around I million species already face extinction, many within decades, unless action is taken to reduce the intensity of drivers of biodiversity loss.”

The conclusions of the IBPES report were widely reported in the media and accepted by governments. Canada, along with 195 other countries, adopted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework at the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity. The conclusions in the IBPES report are at odds with the data compiled by the International Union for Conservation of Natural Resources (IUCN), which catalogues every known species that has become extinct since the year 1500. There are 529 species included on the IUCN’s “Red List”. The number of extinctions by decade has been in significant decline since 1920. It is thought that this extinction peak coincides with the introduction of non-native species, primarily on islands. In contrast to the claims of the IPBES that we can expect 25,000 to 30,000 extinctions globally per year, the average over the last 40 years is about 2 species annually.

In the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, the Parties agreed “to catalyze, enable and galvanize urgent and transformative action by Governments and subnational and local authorities, with the involvement of all of society, to halt and reverse biodiversity loss”. The Framework sets out four goals and establishes 23 targets. The targets entail  the massive expansion of land use planning and regulation of economic activities in almost all areas. The global biodiversity policies basically involve an unresolved debate about how many species are threatened, how severely they are threatened, about how much is due to overexploitation and agriculture (i.e. food production) and human-induced climate change and about the validity of current methods for assessing these things. There is a long leap between acknowledging that some species are threatened and accepting the claim that the nature of the threat is so severe that it requires an urgent and massive intrusion of state control over most land and marine areas. In short, no “crisis” has been demonstrated.

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The Verified Initiative of the United Nations

If the idea of having climate change facts and stories “verified” by TikTok absolutely terrifies you, then you are in your right mind.  But it gets worse:  TikTok is helped in this by 5 certified left-leaning well-funded advocacy organizations specifically dedicated to making fighting “climate change” a priority.

From Watts Up With That?

Opinion by Kip Hansen

“Verified is an initiative of the United Nations, to provide content that cuts through the noise to deliver life-saving information, fact-based advice and stories from the best of humanity. Led by the UN Department for Global Communications, the initiative invites the public to help counter the spread of false narratives across key global issues by sharing UN-verified, science-based content with their communities through articles, videos, and associated media. The initiative is a collaboration with Purpose, one of the world’s leading social impact organizations, and has been supported by a number of collaborators including Rockefeller Foundation, IKEA Foundation, Luminate, TikTok, and Fortescue.” 

If the idea of having climate change facts and stories “verified” by TikTok absolutely terrifies you, then you are in your right mind.  But it gets worse:  TikTok is helped in this by 5 certified left-leaning well-funded advocacy organizations specifically dedicated to making fighting “climate change” a priority.

Here’s an example of the fine work they are collectively doing: 

Please note that this page is aimed at kids….and kids are encouraged to share the quiz with their  friends because “ Quizzes Are More Fun With Friends” .

Just to get you started, here’s a look at the first question:

with the correct answer which has been verified by the United Nations and TikTok to be correct.

For those of you who just want to do the quick pop quiz, here it is – with the ‘verified’ answers upside down at the bottom:

# # # # #

Author’s Comment:

If I were speaking, I’d be speechless!  Unabashed propaganda, aimed at your kids.

I’d love to see your comments on the questions and the provided answers.

By the way, if you actually take the quiz online, each answer screen has a little justification at the bottom.  For question 1 it looks like this:

Wow! Is right….

Thanks for reading.

# # # # #

UK Temperatures In 2024

Of course, warm years now appear to be more common, but this is WEATHER not CLIMATE. As is often the case, it is the relative absence of exceptionally cold years which has pushed the average up in the last couple of decades.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

UK annual temperatures have dropped for the second year running, though the Met Office will emphasise what they claim is a remorseless upwards trend. However, they don’t show error margins in their graphs, and as we know, nine out of ten of the weather stations used for their UK temperature dataset are junk or near junk sites, where poor siting can mean temperatures may be overstated by as much as five degrees for Class 5 and two degrees for Class 4:

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/05/27/poorly-sited-stations-undermine-met-offices-uk-temperature-claims/

Given such poor siting, it is not credible that the Met Office can measure UK temperatures to a hundredth of a degree, as they ridiculously claim. If we allow for just one degree of uncertainty, temperatures in recent years are statistically indistinguishable from 20thC ones:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt

We don’t know of course how good the Met Office network was years ago, as they cannot tell us. But this makes calculating long term trends even more problematic.

We must also bear in mind that the Met Office make no allowance for UHI, which has artificially increased temperatures at many stations since the 19thC. If we look at daily maximum temperatures, which are less affected by UHI, rather than means, we some interesting results:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmax/date/UK.txt

The general increase in average temperatures is still evident. But when we highlight only the years over 13C, we see that there were other years as warm as last year, even as far back as 1921, which was just 0.06C cooler. 1949 and 1959 were at similar levels too.

Of course, warm years now appear to be more common, but this is WEATHER not CLIMATE. As is often the case, it is the relative absence of exceptionally cold years which has pushed the average up in the last couple of decades.

Even 2022, which was 0.7C hotter than 1921, is within the 1C margin of error.

Why we now predominantly get warm years now is a matter for debate! British weather is, of course, highly variable, changing drastically from week to week, and year to year. And it all depends on where the airflow is coming from, air pressure and other meteorological factors.

It is this mixture of weather ultimately which determines whether we have a warm or a cold year.

The German CO2 dilemma

The development of CO2 emissions from electricity production offers an interesting picture in Europe for the year 2024.
First of all, it should be noted that there are apparently different values in this area.

From KlimaNachrichten

By KlimaNachrichten Editor

The development of CO2 emissions from electricity production offers an interesting picture in Europe for the year 2024.
First of all, it should be noted that there are apparently different values in this area.

Sites such as Electricitymaps work with different figures than, for example, Nowtricity or the Federal Environment Agency.
It still estimates emissions for 2023 in mid-2024, but more recent figures are apparently not available there.
Therefore, the origin is always important, because each of the sources has a different calculation.
However, if values from the same source are used, a coherent picture emerges.

On X you can find numbers for 366 days until 28.12.2024. They came from Electricitymaps.
Compared to 14 other countries, Germany is in 13th place, i.e. the third worst value.
Countries like Sweden, France or Norway don’t even have 10% of our emissions.

Nowtricity sets the 2024 figures lower. There are 321 g indicated.
According to this, there has been a decrease of 9.32% in 2024.

In 2024, however, the values would still be higher than in 2020.
That was the first Corona year and there was a decline in electricity production compared to the previous year.
According to the figures there, Germany has been moving sideways since 2019.

Sticking with Nowtricty and 2024,
the month of June was the month with the lowest emissions at 244 g, and November had the highest at 417 g in the year.

This spread shows very well that the so often propagated interplay of sun and wind does not work.
November 2024 showed very clearly that annual totals are of little help when sun and wind fail at the same time.

Even on windy New Year’s Day 2025, with a share of renewable energies of 85% in Germany, the value is only just under 150 g according to Nowtricity.

For comparison: France 26 g, Sweden 14 g, Norway 18 g at the same time.
These values come about because of various things.
However, only together is a secured performance.
Even after years of lavish subsidies, Germany is still a long way from such values.

Morano in ‘fiery’ Fox & Friends interview: Time for Trump to get us out of the climate ‘mess’

The Biden administration has taken more action on climate change than any other president, allocating billions in funds for programs like reducing greenhouse gas, expanding EV chargers, pushing for clean school busses and going off the grid. So, what should the top priorities be for the Trump administration to roll back the costly climate agenda. Joining us now is Marc Morano.

From CFACT

By CFACT Ed, CFACT

WATCH NOW at CFACT’s Climate Depot

Fox & Friends – Fox News Channel – Broadcast January 4, 2025 – Video here.

Expert calls to shut down Biden’s ‘woke’ ‘nonsense’ in fiery interview – Climatedepot.com Executive Director Marc Morano reacts to President-elect Donald Trump’s vow to overhaul Biden’s climate agenda.

Rush Transcript:

Rachel Campos-Duffy: The Biden administration has taken more action on climate change than any other president, allocating billions in funds for programs like reducing greenhouse gas, expanding EV chargers, pushing for clean school busses and going off the grid. So, what should the top priorities be for the Trump administration to roll back the costly climate agenda. Joining us now is Marc Morano. He’s the publisher of ClimateDepot.com. Marc always great to have you on. So, you are on our friend Joe Piscopo’s show, sort of fantasizing about having the shortest-lived federal job for two weeks, for you to go and clean out all these wasteful climate directives and policies. So, tell us what you to what you would do in those two weeks, how you would advise President Trump to deal with all this waste and climate directives?

Marc Morano: Well, from the Department of Transportation to the Department of Energy to the Pentagon — in fact, Biden made every cabinet agency, a climate agency — my fantasy was to have the shortest-lived job in federal history go in for about two weeks, shorter than some Trump’s previous press secretaries. But we won’t get into that, but go in and literally defund and close all of the woke climate programs, particularly starting in places like the Navy or the in the Pentagon, Department of Army, where they actually have all these climate initiatives, and they actually have the mission of the Army and the Navy as one of their focuses is going after fighting climate change.

Which, by the way, isn’t a thing: There’s no such thing as climate action or fighting climate change. Even Department of Transportation and Obama’s department, they had studies looking at how fatal car crashes went up due to global warming. You have to cut the funding. You have to cut the program. You have to fire the employees, at the very least, since it is hard to fire people, reassign them.

I would love to preside over that, shut all this nonsense down the most egregious examples, and then walk away from federal service, because that’s what needs to be done, is they have to be shut immediately.

But even beyond that, Rachel so much of this is the narrative in recasting this entire global fight. But of course, the biggest of all, and this has to come from Donald Trump. He has to submit the UN Paris Agreement, the climate pact, to the United States Senate as a treaty, get the Senate to reject it and treat it as a treaty, and then that gets us out of not only that agreement, but the entire UN climate process, going back to 1992 when George H W Bush got us into the whole mess at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 because he wanted Republicans to appear earth friendly. So, Bush gets us involved in this UN Sustainable Development mess. It’s time for Donald Trump 2.0 to reverse. What was that 32 years ago — that mess that began 33 years ago.

Rachel Campos-Duffy: You also said that you want to set up, you want Donald Trump to set up a sort of new climate committee that would include scientists who are skeptics of this so called Science.

Marc Morano: This is frustrating, because Trump 1.0 — the first term, he brought in the premier expert on greenhouse gasses, Dr. Will Happer from Princeton University. He was Trump’s science advisor. He was all set to do the first push back on the UN climate reports, which began in 1990 — the first pushback by any government around the world. The first pushback scientifically.  It was going to have several dozens of the world’s top scientists, including former UN scientists, Nobel Prize winning scientists, former NASA scientists, Harvard and Yale scientists, all were prepared to go. Donald Trump green lit it, but his staff slow walked until it was too late to do before the 2020 election.

This time around, if Trump does this Climate Committee, and you would have a sort of Red team, Blue Team, it will be the first ever by a government push back of the UN Climate report. This would be the shot heard around the world. It would be the first time a narrative changer on climate change happened. No longer would the only narrative be ‘We have 10 years left till we die’ or ‘We need climate action, net zero. We have to you stop allowing gas powered cars.’

This would actually change that whole climate narrative. And this would help Argentina, help the Eastern European countries, all who are itching to join President Trump, into what I call a Clexit, the climate exit from the UN summit, UN climate treaty, which is similar to the Brexit, but this time, we have to do it on the climate issue.

Rachel Campos-Duffy: Hopefully it might also put an end to all the child slaves that are in Africa digging for cobalt for this agenda, my goals are a little less lofty. I just want a dishwasher that works well if you want the slave labor in China to end but I also want a dishwasher that actually works that I don’t have to clean the dishes before I put it in the dishwasher and then run it twice. So, let’s hope for that too in the new year and in the new administration. Marc Morano, so great to have you.

The CIA and Global Cooling

While the BBC is trying to persuade the public that weather is getting more extreme because of global warming, in 1974 scientists were genuinely concerned about the very real effects of global cooling.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

While the BBC is trying to persuade the public that weather is getting more extreme because of global warming, in 1974 scientists were genuinely concerned about the very real effects of global cooling.

So much so that the CIA prepared this study for the Government:

Back in the 1970s, scientists and politicians were not worried about global temperatures per se, they were worried about the very real impacts of global cooling on weather and agriculture.

They also recognised that the first half of the 20thC marked the best agricultural climate since the 11thC, and that the Little Ice Age was time of drought, famine and political unrest.

Theirs was a very real fear that the world’s climate could return to that again.

The full report is below:

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Scientists: Greenland July 14°C Warmer With 35% Less CO2 250,000 Years Ago!

A new study by Bierman et al titled: Plant, insect, and fungi fossils under the center of Greenland’s ice sheet are evidence of ice-free times, shows that “in the middle of Greenland, where a three-kilometer-thick ice sheet now sits, plants and insects once flourished and at CO2 levels well below today’s levels.” – Report 24

From NoTrickZone

By P Gosselin

CO2 theory called into question…inconvenient truths emerge

A new study by Bierman et al titled: Plant, insect, and fungi fossils under the center of Greenland’s ice sheet are evidence of ice-free times, shows that “in the middle of Greenland, where a three-kilometer-thick ice sheet now sits, plants and insects once flourished and at CO2 levels well below today’s levels.” – Report 24

Hat-tip: Katrin Kana

Greenland was teeming with life 250,000 years ago, scientists have found. Image Nature. 

Hotter with less CO2? That puts the CO2 global warming theory on its head.

14°C warmer with 35% Less CO2

The scientists have proven that central Greenland was completely ice-free in the recent geological past – around 250,000 to 1.1 million years ago – at a time when the atmospheric CO2 content was between 275 and 290 ppm, compared to 420 today.

During drilling on the GISP2 project, researchers found some surprises: remains of poppies, moss ferns, wood tissue and insect parts. That means where we have perpetual ice today, there was once abundant life and warmth not long ago. The scientists estimate a July mean temperature of between +3 and +7°C compared to the -7°C measured today.

According to Germany’s online Report24 here,

What is particularly interesting is that the CO2 concentration of this ice-free period corresponds almost exactly to the values of the “Little Ice Age” between 1700 and 1900.” […] “The study raises fundamental questions. For example: If Greenland could be ice-free at low CO2 levels, what factors really determine whether it freezes or thaws? The answer is likely to be more complex than some climate hysterics would like.”

Such warmth, at Little Ice Age CO2-levels, is a very inconvenient fact for the climate alarmists and it suggests that the climate system is indeed far more complicated than the straight line CO2-temperature claims made by the government-funded scientists and non-questioning media want us to believe.

They’ve got some explaining to do.

See full article (German) at Report 24 here.

Decreasing Trend in South Indian Ocean TC Intensity Since mid–1990s

Tropical cyclone activity often leads to many adverse impacts and assessing their destructiveness is a crucial scientific concern.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

And here’s the study:

Abstract

Tropical cyclone activity often leads to many adverse impacts and assessing their destructiveness is a crucial scientific concern.

Here we investigated changes in the destructiveness of tropical cyclones worldwide using the power dissipation index and found that there is no clear trend in most basins, but a significant decrease in power dissipation index has been detected in the South Indian Ocean basin since 1994, which is almost entirely due to a decrease in both tropical cyclone frequency and duration in this basin.

The decrease in tropical cyclone frequency is influenced by increased atmospheric stability. The decrease in tropical cyclone duration can be attributed to the changes in tropical cyclone locations. In addition, the weakened subtropical high is only observed in the South Indian Ocean (i.e., the Mascarene High), which is also associated with the decrease in tropical cyclone destructiveness.

These findings have implications for assessing the destructive potential of future tropical cyclones.

Fig. 1: Time series of the cumulative power dissipation index (PDI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) for each basin and the global.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01683-2
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