Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
A fire is raging at the Vistra Energy battery storage plant in Moss Landing, one of the largest such facilities in the world. The blaze, which erupted late Thursday afternoon, has sent plumes of hazardous black smoke into the air, prompting evacuations, road closures, and a significant emergency response effort.
MOSS LANDING, Calif. — A fire is raging at the Vistra Energy battery storage plant in Moss Landing, one of the largest such facilities in the world. The blaze, which erupted late Thursday afternoon, has sent plumes of hazardous black smoke into the air, prompting evacuations, road closures, and a significant emergency response effort.
The fire broke out around 3 p.m. at the plant located on Highway 1 in Monterey County, officials report. Flames and smoke continue to emanate from the facility, which houses thousands of lithium batteries designed to store electricity generated during the day for use at night. The cause of the fire remains unknown.
Evacuation orders are in effect for areas south of Elkhorn Slough, north of Molera Road and Monterey Dunes Way, and west of Castroville Boulevard. Approximately 1,500 residents have been displaced. The Castroville Recreation Center at 11261 Crane Street is serving as a temporary evacuation center.
Highway 1 is closed in both directions between Highway 183 and Struve Road. Officials have not provided an estimated reopening time.
Monterey County spokesperson Nicholas Pasculli:
“It’s imperative that residents heed the evacuation order and take the direction of law enforcement and fire personnel,” Pasculli said. “This is a situation where we take the idea of protecting life and property very seriously. We implore people to heed the evacuation order and to go to a safe location.”
The plant, operated by Texas-based Vistra Energy, is a cornerstone of California’s clean energy strategy. Its massive capacity to store renewable energy is integral to the state’s transition to green power. The facility was expanded in 2023 to hold 750 megawatts of electricity, enough to power thousands of homes.
Lithium battery fires are notoriously difficult to extinguish due to the high temperatures and toxic gases they emit, which pose risks to respiratory health, skin, and eyes. All staff were safely evacuated, and emergency teams are working to contain the blaze within the plant’s concrete structure. Officials have stated that while the fire is extensive, it is “contained” to the building.
This is not the first fire at the Moss Landing site. Previous incidents in 2021 and 2022 were attributed to sprinkler malfunctions and system flaws, causing heightened scrutiny of battery storage safety. These incidents prompted California Governor Gavin Newsom to require battery plants to develop emergency response plans with local fire departments.
As authorities investigate this latest incident, concerns are rising over the safety of such facilities and their proximity to populated areas. This is a developing story, with updates expected as more information becomes available.
Ed Miliband has admitted that heat pumps may always be more expensive than gas boilers.
Sales of heat pumps remain pitifully low, despite £7500 subsidies on offer. Government targets of 600,000 sales a year are pie in the sky,with the public at large unconvinced of the benefits.
Ed Miliband has admitted that heat pumps may always be more expensive than gas boilers.
Sales of heat pumps remain pitifully low, despite £7500 subsidies on offer. Government targets of 600,000 sales a year are pie in the sky, with the public at large unconvinced of the benefits.
The Daily Mail reports:
Heat pumps may never be cheaper than gas boilers, Ed Miliband has said, despite Labour sneaking a ‘boiler tax’ through Parliament.
The Energy Secretary confirmed that the government is not planning to introduce a future ban on gas boilers, citing concern around the potential cost to consumers.
The scheme, which will come into force in April, means boiler manufacturers will be fined if they fail to sell enough heat pumps.
Companies in the sector have previously warned it would add £120 to the cost of a new boiler – leading it to be dubbed the ‘boiler tax’.
Speaking at the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee on Wednesday, Mr Miliband said he was ‘wary’ of stopping people from having gas boilers by a specific date if the government cannot guarantee greener alternatives will be cheaper.
If he is ruling out a ban on gas boilers, it raises the question of how they can be phased out by 2035, which still remains the plan.
The boiler tax of £120 is far too tiny to make the slightest difference, and is simply spite. Even if it was raised to punitive levels, it still would not alter the fundamental fact that most people simply cannot afford to spend £10k on a heat pump, never mind the thousands more needed in most homes for upgrading radiators, insulation, hot water tanks and water heaters.
If gas boilers are unavailable or unaffordable, people will just buy conventional electric heaters instead. And that would quickly cripple the electricity grid, as it would not have the capacity to cope.
It is likely that gas will be taxed, in order to close the price gap with electricity. But to push gas prices up enough to make a difference would be political suicide, even if electricity prices were simultaneously reduced, as it would disproportionately hit the poor. Putting up pensioners’ heating costs would probably sound the death knell for the Labour Government!
Moreover the current heat pump subsidy of £7500 is unsustainable in the long run. If every home was paid it, the bill would be £150 billion. All we would be doing was subsidising our own heat pumps.
The likely outcome is that Miliband will simply kick the can down the road and leave it to the next government to bite the bullet.
As of 2023, nearly one-quarter of the world’s nuclear reactors generating electricity were in the United States, which also boasts over a quarter of worldwide generation capacity and over 30% of actual nuclear electricity generation. But the average age of the 92 U.S. operational nuclear reactors, the world’s third oldest fleet, was 41.6 years. The Vogtle Units 3 and 4 in Georgia are the only new U.S. reactors in the past 40 years.
As of 2023, nearly one-quarter of the world’s nuclear reactors generating electricity were in the United States, which also boasts over a quarter of worldwide generation capacity and over 30% of actual nuclear electricity generation. But the average age of the 92 U.S. operational nuclear reactors, the world’s third oldest fleet, was 41.6 years. The Vogtle Units 3 and 4 in Georgia are the only new U.S. reactors in the past 40 years.
Meanwhile, China has been increasing its nuclear reactor fleet from 55 to 80, with more in the planning stages. India, too, is adding 11 new reactors to its existing fleet of 23. France, Russia, and South Korea are building more new reactors than the U.S., as are several smaller nations. But U.S. nuclear energy development is hamstrung by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s archaic rules that slow permitting and drive up development costs.
Global Energy Monitor says that China has expanded its nuclear power capacity at the fastest rate of any country in the 21st Century and will soon overtake France to house the world’s second largest nuclear power plant fleet. Nearly half of nuclear powerplant construction is in China, where the government has promoted nuclear power to shore up baseload capacity.
On the other hand, China already has more canceled nuclear capacity than any other country because of its pivot away from inland nuclear power plants. China is also building massive amounts of wind and solar energy capacity that may result in further nuclear plant cancellations, says Global Energy Monitor.
China is also a major player in developing and deploying Generation III and Generation IV reactors, though most Chinese nuclear facilities are Generation II, which lack some of the safety design elements in the newer reactors. Four Chinese nuclear units rely on the Westinghouse AP1000 Gen III reactor, but China has also deployed its own Hualong One Gen III reactor at four nuclear units. Another 13 are under construction in China, plus two more in Pakistan and one potentially in Argentina that are using the Hualong One design.
The Chinese also sport the world’s first Gen IV nuclear power plant, which relies on two small reactors that drive one steam turbine with an overall output capacity of 211 MW. These small modular reactors (SMRs), with a potential scaled-up version with a capacity of 650 MW, are still in pilot testing in the U.S. NuScale’s advanced light-water SMR was given the green light by the NRC in 2023 but is not expected to become operational until 2029.
Russian sustainability envoy Boris Titov says that his country intends to maintain its position as “one of the biggest builders of new nuclear plants in the world.” Russia is currently in development or construction of new nuclear power plants in China, India, Iran, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Turkey because “we need a lot of energy.”
While Russia only produces about 5% of mined uranium (Kazakhstan produces more than 40%, followed by Canada, Australia, and Namibia [collectively another 35%]), it produces about a third of the 2020 supply of uranium hexafluoride and today has about 43% of global enrichment capacity compared to just 7% for the U.S. European nations collectively have another third, and China is rapidly increasing its current 16% share.
France, which relies on nuclear energy for nearly two-thirds of its electric power, has recently decided to augment its nuclear fleet after a period of self-doubt. After 12 years of delays and challenges, the Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor began generating power in December. The European pressurized reactor (EPR), the most powerful unit in France, and one of only four worldwide, can produce about 1,600 MW of electricity, enough to power 2 million homes.
The French reactor suffered similar problems to Georgia’s Vogtle units, as technical setbacks and other issues caused the cost of the project to skyrocket from the original estimate of 3.3 billion euros to 13.2 billion euros. But France is undeterred, with five more new units in the planning stages and another eight under consideration. A major concern is replacing older reactors scheduled for decommissioning in the near future.
Nuclear power is the fourth-largest source of electricity in India, with 21 reactors at seven power plants and an installed capacity of 5,780 MW. Six more reactors under construction will add another 4,300 MW of capacity, but India’s goal is to achieve 63,000 MW of nuclear energy capacity by 2032.
India’s program, operated by Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited, focuses on indigenous reactors and global collaboration, including agreements with France and Russia for reactor technology. India is also developing its own Bharat small reactors, a shift from traditional large-scale plants, with private sector partnerships driving innovation.
In the U.S., now that Vogtle Units 3 and 4 are operational, there is not a single new full-sized nuclear power plant under construction, but there are some signs of progress in other areas, including the afore-mentioned NuScale SMR.
Last November, the Department of Energy doled out $3 million to Westinghouse for its eVinci microreactor and $2 million to Radiant Industries for its Kaleidos microreactor. The funding is aimed at helping the companies prepare for testing at DOE”s Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME). The nation’s first microreactor testbed is under construction at Idaho National Laboratory, with completion expected by 2026.
The eVinci and Kaleidos microreactors both run on uranium-based tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles, which cannot melt inside a high-temperature reactor. Kaleidos uses a helium gas coolant, while eVinci relies on a passive heat pipe system. These 50 MW or smaller reactors may be best suited for microgrids or off-grid rural sites, military bases, mining operations, and even lunar installations.
Upon federal approval, Westinghouse has plans to assemble these portable eVinci units at its Pennsylvania facility and ship them to customers in containers. Several other private companies are also developing microreactor designs, with similar goals for the not-too-distant future. Both Westinghouse and Radiant hope their designs will secure NRC licenses by 2030.
In a novel approach to nuclear energy, U.S.-based Deep Fission has entered into a strategic partnership with Australia’s Endeavour Energy to build small modular reactors and bury them a mile underground so as to eliminate the need for massive concrete structures used to shield above-ground reactors. Their hope is to have the first of these reactors, needed to power Endeavour’s Edged data centers, operational by 2029.
That said, both SMR and microreactor permitting in the U.S. are years behind that in other nations.
U.S.-based nuclear energy companies are not the only ones to lament that the U.S. nuclear energy permitting system, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in particular, is the primary obstacle to faster deployment of both SMR and microreactor technologies today just as the system has thwarted development of large-scale (traditional) reactors, none of which emit hydrocarbons and none of which run only intermittently.
Hopefully, the second Trump Administration will act to change that calculus.
In a high-stakes showdown that captured the attention of investors nationwide, the State of Tennessee has reached a settlement with BlackRock, Inc. regarding its use of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors in the management of U.S. mutual funds. While skeptics might dismiss the agreement as symbolic, a closer inspection reveals an important victory for investor rights, transparency, and accountability in the financial sector.
In a high-stakes showdown that captured the attention of investors nationwide, the State of Tennessee has reached a settlement with BlackRock, Inc. regarding its use of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors in the management of U.S. mutual funds. While skeptics might dismiss the agreement as symbolic, a closer inspection reveals an important victory for investor rights, transparency, and accountability in the financial sector.
The Allegations and Context
At the heart of this case was the assertion that BlackRock had violated Tennessee’s Trade Practices Act (TCPA) by failing to adequately disclose the role of ESG factors in its decision-making processes. ESG investing has been a polarizing topic, with proponents hailing it as a forward-thinking approach to sustainable finance and critics decrying it as a distraction from fiduciary duties. The lawsuit filed by Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti aimed to address these tensions, arguing that investors deserved clarity and honesty about the criteria shaping their portfolios.
What the Settlement Requires
Enhanced Transparency in Proxy Voting: BlackRock has committed to casting proxy votes for “In-Scope Funds” independently, without influence from external organizations, and will disclose the rationale behind its votes on a quarterly basis. This is a significant step forward in demystifying how fund managers make decisions that directly impact shareholders’ returns.
Investor-Centric Communication: The settlement mandates that BlackRock refrain from using ambiguous ESG terminology when communicating with Tennessee investors. Instead, the company must adopt clear, legally defined language such as “financial materiality” to ensure that investors can make informed decisions.
Removal of ESG Ratings: Within 90 days, BlackRock must strip ESG ratings from its U.S. product pages for In-Scope Funds. This move underscores a commitment to prioritize financial performance over non-financial considerations when presenting investment options to clients.
Audits and Compliance Oversight: Over the next three proxy seasons, BlackRock will undergo third-party audits of its compliance with the agreement’s terms. The audits will examine whether BlackRock is genuinely upholding its fiduciary duty to prioritize investors’ financial interests.
Public Disclosure of Climate-Focused Memberships: BlackRock will publish information about its membership in climate-focused organizations on its corporate website. This measure promotes accountability and allows investors to assess whether such affiliations align with their values and financial goals.
Why This Settlement Matters
This agreement serves as a blueprint for restoring trust in financial institutions. By addressing the controversies surrounding ESG investing, the settlement strikes a balance between innovation and accountability. It neither demonizes ESG principles nor gives them free rein; instead, it holds fund managers to their core responsibility—maximizing shareholder value.
Furthermore, the settlement demonstrates the power of state-level legal actions to influence corporate governance on a national scale. As more states scrutinize the practices of financial giants, the message is clear: investors deserve honesty, transparency, and accountability.
Addressing Criticisms
Some critics may argue that the settlement lets BlackRock off the hook by dismissing the claims without prejudice. However, this overlooks the significant commitments BlackRock has made to reform its practices. The settlement includes clear mechanisms for reasserting the dismissed claims if BlackRock fails to comply, ensuring that the agreement has teeth.
Moreover, by requiring BlackRock to implement these reforms over three years, the settlement allows for meaningful, lasting changes rather than short-term fixes. The inclusion of audits and public disclosures further bolsters its enforceability.
A Step Forward for Investors
In an era where ESG controversies dominate headlines, this settlement offers a refreshing approach. It empowers investors with the information they need to make informed decisions while holding financial institutions accountable for their actions. As other states consider similar measures, Tennessee has set a precedent that balances innovation with investor protection.
While no settlement is perfect, this agreement represents a significant victory for transparency, accountability, and the integrity of financial markets. For Tennessee investors—and indeed, all investors across the country—it’s a step in the right direction.
“Is #ESG and climate hysteria also part of this subversion to attack democractic and capitalist principles? Is ESG just a cloak for a socialist grab on corporations to strangle capitalism from within?”
“For anyone thinking there’s a more community spirited version of capitalism through more state intervention, read Animal Farm by George Orwell again. It’s called collectivism, socialism, marxism, ultimately totalitarianism.”
“Is #ESG and climate hysteria also part of this subversion to attack democractic and capitalist principles? Is ESG just a cloak for a socialist grab on corporations to strangle capitalism from within?”
“For anyone thinking there’s a more community spirited version of capitalism through more state intervention, read Animal Farm by George Orwell again. It’s called collectivism, socialism, marxism, ultimately totalitarianism.”
Desiree Fixler (above quotations) is a voice worth listening to. With her courageous out-of-step views being commonsensical, she has an important future in the UK/EU debates over corporate responsibility–and climate change policy in particular. Her large, growing audience attests to her integrity.
“Desiree is a leading expert in the field of sustainable finance and investment banking with over 25 years of experience in innovating and reshaping financial markets,” her bio reads. “Renowned for blowing the whistle on the dark side of ESG, she is a sought-after advisor, media contributor, and keynote speaker.”
Continuing,
Desiree is well-known for her practical, first principles approach to sustainability and helps companies navigate the fractured and often overdemanding world of ESG. She serves as a trusted advisor to corporations, NGOs, and regulators such as the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority and the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and is at the forefront of global efforts to drive greater transparency, practicality and impact in the practice of sustainable finance. [1]
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Enough introduction. I became acquainted with Ms. Fixler with her comment some months ago
If you haven’t read Ayaan Hirsi Ali’s compelling long essay in The Free Press on X, read it now. And then consider this. Is #ESG and climate hysteria also part of this subversion to attack democractic and capitalist principles? Is ESG just a cloak for a socialist grab on corporations to strangle capitalism from within?
Sounds far-fetched. I mean for many in the finance industry, ESG is just a sensible framework to spot commercial opportunities and to assess risk. But is it? Did property insurers just wake up to fire and flood risk when some repurposed PR or consultant guy, new to ESG, sent them a SASB sector disclosure list? Was Denmark’s Orsted wise to quickly transition to an almost fully renewable energy company in light of its share price collapse? Are ESG equity investors satisfied earning 11% vs 21% for regular equity funds over the last year (reported today in the FT according to JPM research)?
She then tells her personal journey.
I believe most people, including myself, jumped on to this bandwagon believing that climate action and DEI are win-wins, that ESG is prudent risk management. In 2019, we applauded the Business Roundtable championing stakeholder capitalism. It felt good to soften capitalism to promote the “doing well by doing good” creed. And the money started rolling in because “saving the planet” sells. But so did investment underperformance, regulation and votes for politicians intent on limiting economic growth.
This feel-good initiative got out of control through mis-selling, debilitating regulation, wrong cost/benefit analysis, end of the world hysteria, vulture self-interest groups and bad energy policies, with a disregard to the cost and safety impact on citizens.
Just look at Europe readying to jump off a socialist cliff with its Green Deal and CBDC. By abandoning cost/benefit analysis, the EU is intent on increasing energy costs while ramping up nefarious controls on trade, production, innovation and money, robbing the continent of a decent economic future. And having no impact on overall global emissions.
She ends on a note of realism:
Climate change is real but so is war, geopolitical risk, social unrest, limits on free speech and the cost of living crisis.
For anyone thinking there’s a more community spirited version of capitalism through more state intervention, read Animal Farm by George Orwell again. It’s called collectivism, socialism, marxism, ultimately totalitarianism.
Fossil fueled capitalism is flawed but it’s the best system for growth, social mobility, climate adaptation, energy transition, innovation and civil rights. I really hope folks think things through and consider Ayaan’s poignant essay, especially as we all head to the ballot box.
It’s gradual until it’s sudden.
So much said in the above paragraphs. The future belongs to the courageous and logical. Desiree Fixler is a game changer that the UK/EU, not to mention many other countries, needs to hear.
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[1] Some more history and introduction:
In a defining moment during her tenure as Group Sustainability Officer at Deutsche Bank’s asset manager, DWS, Desiree exposed material greenwashing at the company- huge disparities between public ESG claims and internal statements and actions. When her concerns as well as her job were dismissed by the C-suite and Board, she decided to speak out publicly. Subsequent investigations by US and German authorities resulted in a dramatic series of events, including a federal police raid, the removal of the top executives and the largest SEC greenwashing fine to date.
Desiree’s whistleblowing action sent shockwaves throughout the finance industry, catalyzing efforts to tackle greenwashing. She poignantly shares this cautionary yet inspirational story and goes beyond the call for clearer ESG disclosures to emphasize the power of speaking up to drive meaningful change.
Prior to DWS, she has held senior roles at JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Zais Group, where she built and managed ESG investing and structured credit businesses. Desiree has also served as a senior advisor to both BlueOrchard and responsAbility Investments to scale blended finance transactions in the institutional capital markets. Her track record of product innovation includes several award-winning and market transformational products, including the development of the iTraxx and CDX indices, as well as a series of impact securitizations.
Desiree holds a BSc Economics (Hons) from the London School of Economics. She is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Responsible Investing.
A massive fire has broken out in one of the world’s largest battery storage facilities containing tens of thousands of lithium batteries, prompting a full-scale mobilisation of firefighters across several counties in Northern California.
A massive fire has broken out in one of the world’s largest battery storage facilities containing tens of thousands of lithium batteries, prompting a full-scale mobilisation of firefighters across several counties in Northern California. The Independent has the story.
Towering flames were visible from afar as a large black column of smoke rose from the Moss Landing power plant, with the fire showing no signs of easing in the early hours of Friday. It was first reported around 3pm local time.
The fire is located in the northern part of the sate some 300 miles (500 km) north of the wildfires in Los Angeles. The plant contains tens of thousands of lithium batteries, which can be extremely difficult to put out if they go up in flames.
“There’s no way to sugar coat it. This is a disaster, is what it is,” Monterey County supervisor Glenn Church told KSBW-TV. But the fire is not expected to spread beyond the concrete building it is enclosed in, he added. Highway 1, located nearby, has been shut down by authorities.
The plant is around 100 miles (160 km) south of San Francisco, and the blaze is unrelated to the ongoing wildfires in the southern Californian city of Los Angeles, which started around 10 days ago and have killed at least 27 people.
The cause of the fire is currently unclear, said a statement from the factory’s owners, Texas-based company Vistra Energy. Around 1,500 people were successfully evacuated from the building, according to the Mercury News. …
Vistra plants also suffered fires in 2021 and 2022 which were caused by a fire sprinkler system malfunction, causing some units to overheat, the Mercury News reported.
An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by the early part of the weekend as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies. Temperatures are going to fall to well below-normal levels across much of the nation for the bulk of next week which is quite impressive indeed considering this is right around the time of year with the lowest “normal” temperatures.
By early Tuesday, January 21st, much of the nation will be in the deep freeze with a large chunk of the Northern US likely below-zero. Temperatures in the big cities along the I-95 corridor can drop all the way into single digits for low temperatures on Tuesday morning. Map courtesy NOAA, weathermodels.com (Dr. Ryan Maue, X)
Overview
An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by the early part of the weekend as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies. Temperatures are going to fall to well below-normal levels across much of the nation for the bulk of next week, which is quite impressive, indeed considering this is right around the time of year with the lowest “normal” temperatures.
The Arctic front at the leading edge of the cold air outbreak will reach the eastern states on Sunday and a wave of low pressure is likely to form right along its boundary zone. This Arctic wave could produce some accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region from later Sunday into Sunday night. Another storm system could develop way down in the Gulf region by the middle of next week potentially bringing snow and ice to parts of the southern and eastern US. Looking ahead, there is even the chance for a third system to form across the southern states by the end of next week.
Some of the air that reaches the Mid-Atlantic region early next week will have its origins from the other side of the North Pole over Siberia. Indeed “backward trajectory” models trace the origin of air parcels that reach the Mid-Atlantic region by Tuesday, January 21st, back to a land mass that is known for its brutally cold air this time of year. Plot courtesy NOAA
Arctic blast arrives early this weekend
The colder-than-normal weather pattern that began earlier this month across the central and eastern US not only looks like it will be extend through the third week of January, but it is going to go to more extreme levels. The upper-level pattern across North America has evolved into one that can produce “cross-polar” flow allowing for Siberian air to cross the North Pole and drop into Canada and the US in coming days. The outbreak of Arctic air will get underway early this weekend over the central states and the bitter cold air mass will plunge southward all the way into the heart of Texas by late Saturday. On Sunday, the Arctic front at the leading edge of the Arctic air mass will slide into the eastern states and its progression will likely slow down across the southeastern states. Energy will rotate through an upper-level trough and this will open the door for an Arctic wave of low pressure to form along the frontal boundary zone. That low pressure system would push northeastward into increasingly colder air and it can produce accumulating snow or rain changing to accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region by later Sunday into Sunday night…perhaps on the order of a few inches.
An Arctic frontal boundary zone will slide into the eastern states on Sunday and energy (circled region) pushing through an upper-level trough can help to generate an Arctic wave of low pressure. This system can then push northeastward later Sunday into an increasingly cold air mass. As such, there is the chance of accumulating snow from later Sunday into Sunday night across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
Inauguration Day (Monday) weather
By Monday, January 20th, the bitter cold air will be firmly established across much of the nation, and this includes in the DC metro region where outdoor activities are planned for the Inauguration Day ceremonies. Temperatures are likely to be not far from 20 degrees at noontime on Monday in the DC metro area and there will be a biting wind to make it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures. Temperatures on Monday night could drop into single digits along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and to below-zero levels over a huge part of the northern US.
It was so cold on January 20th, 1985 that all outdoor activities for Ronald Reagan’s second swearing-in ceremony were cancelled. Temperatures were in single digits at the noon swearing-in time in Washington, D.C. on January 20th during what was an extremely cold Arctic air outbreak. Map courtesy NOAA
The most recent Inauguration Day that was impacted considerably by the weather took place in January of 1985 for Ronald Reagan’s second term. It was so cold on that day in Washington, D.C. with an Arctic outbreak into the eastern states that all outdoor activities were cancelled. The outside temperature at noon on January 20th was only 7°F and wind chills during the afternoon were in the -10 to -20°F range. That particular cold wave in January 1985 happened to follow a major stratospheric warming event that got underway during December of 1984.
On the eve of JFK’s inauguration in 1961, eight inches of snow fell on Washington, D.C. causing the most crippling traffic jam, the District had ever seen up to that point of time with hundreds of cars abandoned on the local roadways. By sunrise on the 20th, the snow had ended, and the skies were clearing, but the day remained bitterly cold. An army of men worked all night to clear Pennsylvania Avenue and despite the cold, a large crowd turned out for the swearing-in ceremony and inaugural parade. At noon, the temperature was only 22°F and the wind was blowing from the northwest at 19 mph making it feel like 7°F above zero. (For some excellent information on “Inauguration Day weather” visit this NWS site).
With cold air about to plunge again all the way into the Deep South, there chance for more than an inch of snow is “non-zero” all the way down to the Gulf coast by the end of next week. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics
Mid-week and late week storm threats
It’ll remain brutally cold on Tuesday across much of the nation (below-freezing temperatures all the way down to the Gulf coast) and a new wave of energy will head towards the south-central states. Given the expectation of an active southern branch of the jet stream, low pressure may indeed form over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week and this system could then push to the northeast towards the eastern seaboard. With cold air firmly entrenched all the way down to the Gulf coast, this system could produce significant accumulating snow and crippling ice all the way down into the Deep South and potentially farther to the north and east as it pushes towards the east coast. Looking ahead, there may be yet another wave of energy headed towards the south-central states by later next week and this too can help to spin-up a storm system near the Gulf coast by the end of next week.
For some good news…only 25 days until spring training begins.
A number of mainstream media outlets have uncritically echoed the proclamation of 2024 being the “hottest year on record,” such as, CNN with a story titled, “2024 Confirmed as World’s Hottest Year on Record”, and the BBC with a headline that declared, “2024 Confirmed as Hottest Year Ever Recorded.” When these media reports are examined in long-term historical context of the available global temperature data, it becomes clear that the claims lack the certainty their headlines proclaim and are likely false or exaggerated.
A number of mainstream media outlets have uncritically echoed the proclamation of 2024 being the “hottest year on record,” such as, CNN with a story titled, “2024 Confirmed as World’s Hottest Year on Record“, and the BBC with a headline that declared, “2024 Confirmed as Hottest Year Ever Recorded.” When these media reports are examined in long-term historical context of the available global temperature data, it becomes clear that the claims lack the certainty their headlines proclaim and are likely false or exaggerated.
2024 was the warmest year in a multi-dataset record of global temperature going back to 1850.
2024 had a global average temperature of 15.10°C; 0.12°C higher than the previous highest annual value in 2023.
2024 was 0.72°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average, and 1.60°C warmer than the pre-industrial level, making it the first calendar year to exceed 1.5 above that level
But, those numbers differ from those of other sources, such as a data set from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA reports:
The year 2024 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 at 1.29°C (2.32°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This value is 0.10°C (0.18°F) more than the previous record set last year. The ten warmest years in the 175-year record have all occurred during the last decade (2015–2024).
While NOAA repeats the “hottest year on record” claim, their numbers differ from Copernicus, undermining any confidence one might have in the precision of the global average temperature measurements for 2024, and any record breaking claims flowing from their disparate data measurements.
Further, these claims completely ignore the evidence based research, such as the surface stations project conducted by The Heartland Institute, showing that the Urban Heat Island effect and the poor placement of temperature stations used to measure temperatures, from which long-term temperature data is gathered, may account for as much as 50 percent of recent warming, with the remainder likely being partly or wholly natural, such as being driven by El Niño events.
It’s also worth noting that the phrase “hottest year on record” typically refers to records spanning about 150 years—a mere blink in geological time. Paleoclimatological evidence shows that Earth has experienced periods with significantly hotter temperatures long before industrial revolution. For instance, during the Eemian interglacial period around 120,000 years ago, global temperatures were comparable to or even exceeded current levels.
In the rush to blame climate change for 2024’s temperatures, the media also underappreciates the impact of natural climate phenomena such as El Niño on temperatures in 2023 and 2024. This creates an oversimplified narrative that ignores the complexities of climate systems. The El Niño event in of 2023-2024 has been a major contributor to the recent global temperature anomalies, with many reports stating that it significantly boosted global temperatures compared to a neutral ocean pattern state, making 2024 one of the hottest years on record; this is due to the warming ocean surface temperatures associated with El Niño adding to the overall heat in the climate system.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, following the conclusion of the 2023–2024 El Niño event, there has been a notable decline in ocean temperatures. This cooling trend is particularly evident in the eastern and central tropical Pacific regions. NOAA reported that by December 2024, La Niña conditions had emerged, characterized by below-average sea surface temperatures across these areas.
Oceans are considered the biggest influence on atmospheric temperature, as they absorb the majority of the sun’s radiation, acting as a massive heat reservoir that regulates global climate by storing and distributing heat around the planet through ocean currents; this means that changes in ocean temperature significantly affect the overall atmospheric temperature. Therefore, with cooling oceans, it stands to reason that cooler global atmospheric temperatures are likely ahead for 2025.
In summary, while global temperatures have gradually risen in recent decades, it is unclear whether portraying 2024 as unequivocally the “hottest year on record” is justified, or rather whether it is a temporary anomaly reflecting, in part, a combination of natural conditions and human measurement error.
CNN and BBC do a great disservice to their audiences by not placing their claims in the broader historical context of long-term temperatures and data, and by downplaying or ignoring entirely natural weather phenomena, and problematic temperature measurement conditions, which impact temperature measurements, when asserting that temperatures are the highest on record. An approach that considers the full range of scientific data, historical context, and natural variability would provide a more accurate and less alarming understanding of our planet’s climate dynamics.
Unfortunately, as Climate Realism has demonstrated repeatedly, the media seems more interested in pushing a climate doom narrative than factually reporting the complex truth about climate.
Antarctic ice melt has been an ongoing scientific controversy for more than a decade. Oddly, the warring parties are all at the same U.S. Federal Agency. The war, which involved salvos of papers between the NASA’s GRACE Ice Mass team and H. Jay Zwally and his team.
Antarctic ice melt has been an ongoing scientific controversy for more than a decade. Oddly, the warring parties are all at the same U.S. Federal Agency. The war, which involved salvos of papers between the NASA’s GRACE Ice Mass team and H. Jay Zwally and his team.
Here’s the background:
The current NASA Vital Signs of the Planet web page [NASA’s climate crisis propaganda section] for Ice Sheets carries this message boldly across the top one third of the page:
Here is today’s Vital Signs Antarctic Ice Sheets graphic:
It is important to remember that both the NASA’s GRACE Ice Mass team and Zwally et al. use the same data sets to determine their estimates of losses and gains. The differing results are then an indication of the different approaches to interpretation of that data, which may include biases.
NASA’s climate.gov doesn’t quite agree with Zwally et al. yet. But the Vital Signs graphic is for “Antarctic Ice Mass in Gts” . . . and that total ice mass has been level since turn of the century, with a lot of variation.
Compare Zwally’s 2021 estimate of -12 GT a year with the GRACE figure of -137 GT a year (in the two panel image, on the right). Zwally’s runs through the end of 2016.
Don’t think for a moment that Jay Zwally is some kook on the shady fringes of NASA – he is one of their top flight scientists and led the 2003 ICESat mission. He presented one of NASA’s famed MANIAC talks in 2019. And he has firmly stated that his Antarctic Ice Mass work is not a repudiation of climate science—it is just solid evidence that Antarctic Ice Mass is not plummeting as the Climate Crisis Team claims. (One might rightly ask why, then, don’t the creators of the Vital Signs Ice Sheets page present his results alongside of those of the GRACE team.)
So what’s the news?
The news is that some clever scientists — Collin M. Schohn, Neal R. Iverson, Lucas K. Zoe , Jacob R. Fowler, and Natasha Morgan-Witts — had decided that instead of blindly following the long-standing formulas for glacier ice flow, maybe they ought to find out, using real experiments, if those formulas actually reflect what happens in the physical universe where glaciers, ice under pressure, are flowing and melting. It took them ten years.
Disclosure: I am not a glaciologist. I know next to nothing about the physics of ice melting under pressure. Therefore, I report only what SciTechDaily says.
“New research shows temperate glacier ice flows more steadily than previously thought, leading to lower projections of sea-level rise.
Neal Iverson started with two lessons in ice physics when asked to describe a research paper about glacier ice flow that has just been published by the journal Science.
That temperate ice is like an ice cube left on a kitchen counter, with meltwater pooling between the ice and the countertop, he said. Temperate ice has been difficult to study and characterize.
Second, other parts of glaciers have cold, hard ice, like an ice cube still in the freezer. This is the kind of ice that has typically been studied and used as the basis of glacier flow models and forecasts.
The new research paper deals with the former, said Iverson, a paper co-author and project supervisor.”
The press release is about Iverson’s new paperLinear-viscous flow of temperate ice(Schohn et al. 2025). (paywalled and too new for my usual paywall-work-arounds).
“The paper describes lab experiments and the resulting data that suggest a standard value within the “empirical foundation of glacier flow modeling” – an equation known as Glen’s flow law, named after the late John W. Glen, a British ice physicist – should be changed for temperate ice. …. The new value when used in the flow law “will tend to predict increases in flow velocity that are much smaller in response to increased stresses caused by ice sheet shrinkage as the climate warms,” Iverson said. That would mean models will show less glacier flow into oceans and project less sea-level rise.”
How much less? Can’t read the paper, so I don’t know. [If anyone has access to the paper here, I’d love a copy].
But here is Iverson’s sketch of the experimental equipment which was all contained in a temperature-controlled freezer:
The press release further states:
“Resetting n to 1.0
Glen’s flow law is written as: ε ̇ = Aτn.
The equation relates the stress on ice, τ, to its rate of deformation, ε ̇, where A is a constant for a particular ice temperature. Results of the new experiments show that the value of the stress exponent, n, is 1.0 rather than the usually assigned value of 3 or 4.
The authors wrote, “For generations, based on Glen’s original experiments and many subsequent experiments mostly on cold ice (-2 degrees C and colder), the value of the stress exponent n in models has been taken to be 3.0.” (They also wrote that other studies of the “cold ice of ice sheets” have placed n higher yet, at 4.0.)”
Most of us might want to check the Wiki for an explanation of Glen’s Flow Law. The key is that the exponent n is just that, an exponent and not a mere multiplier. Thus, the call to re-set that exponent to “1” makes a rather huge difference.
The Bottom Line:
New research shows temperate glacier ice flows more steadily, linearly and not exponentially, contrary to our previous understanding, and this leads to far lower projections of future sea-level rise due to any glacier melt in Greenland and Antarctica.
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Author’ Comment:
We have to admire a group that spends ten years, working through all the failures and development, to discover something closer to the real-world truth about something as hard to measure as “glacier ice flow” – the flow of ice under tremendous pressures – and the melting that takes place.
Hopefully, we will see the findings translated into better, more reasonable and less hysterical projections of future sea level rise that might result from the melting of the glacier ice of Greenland and Antarctica.
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I can be reached by email at my first name at the domain i4.net.
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