Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
The above, which still appears on their website, confirmed their original plan to make Vivaro electric vans at Luton, alongside diesel vans.
So what has changed?
According to SMMT data, 5367 electric Vauxhall vans were registered in the year to June 2024. Stellantis also say they sold 34632 vans in total in the UK. Although the periods overlap, this would imply an electric ratio of about 15%, well above this yearโs LEV mandate of 10%:
On the face of it then, Vauxhall wonโt have to pay any fines. However the real problem seems to be that the mandate will rapidly rise from next year.
It would appear that Vauxhall donโt believe they can hit these targets going forward, and it is easy to see why. Across the market as a whole, electric vans have only penetrated 5.6% this year, even less than last:
And why, other than a few niche applications, would any business buy one?
The Vivaro Diesel as an OTR price of ยฃ35010, but the electric is priced at ยฃ51715.
Most vans tend to do high mileage, so after three or four years, the electric will be worthless on the secondhand market, unlike the diesel which will probably be worth a grand or two:
The electric has a claimed range of 215 miles, but in the real world, with a full load, will probably struggle to do 100 miles. This immediately rules it out for many businesses. I know our van at work would occasionally do more than that in a day. Its typical run was around South Yorkshire, and that could easily entail at least 70 or 80 miles.
An electric van will simple not have the same productivity as a diesel for most applications. In short, while a diesel might do 100 drops a day, and electric might only manage 50. You would therefore need twice as many vans and drivers!
Then there is the issue of where and how you recharge overnight.
When all things are considered, businesses know what is best for them. And so far they have made it clear that they wonโt buy electric.
Which brings us back to Vauxhall.
To meet a target of 46% electric in four years time, they must either sell a lot more electric vans, or sell fewer diesel.
And if they sell fewer diesels, that leaves Luton, which makes all the diesel Vivaros, without enough work to be viable. Ellesmere Port, which only makes electric, will take over Lutonโs existing electric van work.
The ultimate irony here is that imports of vans and cars are not subject to the ZEV mandate. So Stellantis can instead push French made Citroen vans into the UK market and avoid fines.
As the Vauxhall blurb notes, they are the only van brand made in the UK. Lutonโs departure from the scene will simply open the door to vans like the Ford Transit, which is made in Spain and Turkey.
And I can confidently predict that next year, electric van sales will still be in the doldrums, despite Ed Milibandโs crazed policies.
FOOTNOTE
Ford have a range calculator for the Transit, which reduces range to just 91 miles in cold conditions:
Australia is too poor to use air-conditioning and dishwashers on a warm day
Welcome to Bananaustralia.
The Premier of NSW issued death threats about electricity bills to get attention:
โIf you use electricity this afternoon, youโre going to get killed in terms of how much you pay, the amount of money (to run appliances) this afternoon will be through the roof,โ he said.
The NSW Minister, Penny Sharpe told eight million people to avoid using the dishwashers and pool pumps between 3 and 8pm, close the doors and blinds, and turn the air conditioner up to a higher temperature. โStay hydrated and avoid going outside in the hotter parts of the day where possibleโ she said, like she was talking to four-year-olds.
All around New South Wales and in Canberra people spent the day wandering around turning off lights and appliances and rearranging their plans. Public servants were asked to pull the blinds and turn off appliances at work. The four water utilities, the dams, and water management, were also asked to help. And theย Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT)ย condition was instigated, which means some businesses were paid to stop using as much electricity. Presumably, Tomago smelter had to go on an electron-diet โ since it uses 10% of the entire stateโs electricity. But who needs aluminium right?
So most of the state tried to do something useful in the dim light, so they could pay the rest of the state to do nothing.
But itโs OK, because you could do whatever you wanted up until 3pm:
Energy should be used as normal prior to 3pm when rooftop solar panels are powering much of the state. During the peak from 3pm to 8pm, every small step to reduce demand makes a difference.
You can take your productivity and stir-fry it.
The human brain is the most complex known thing in the universe, and this week millions of those biological powerhouses were distracted from whatever they do best by the complexity of living in a world of Green witchcraft trying to make the weather perfect next century. The productivity loss might have been modest this time, but the long-term trend is a slow motion trainwreck.ย The more weather dependent generators we have, the more time we waste thinking about electricity. Should we cook dinner for 10pm? The kids will be hungry.
Killer electricity prices came anyway โ $17,500 A MWh for a whole hour
All the effort stopped the blackouts, but they didnโt stop the bank raid. Wholesale electricity prices hit the price cap Tuesday and Wednesday.
Despite all the solar power Australians are swimming in, the bonfire started at 2.30pm and lasted a full sizzling hour. Even though many prices in the wholesale market are hedged, that square wave on an 11-gigawatt grid is a $200 million dollar price signal.ย The people writing those futures contracts for next year got the message they will have to raise their forward contracts. The price spikes we see today turn up in our electricity bills sometime down the track.
Say what? You were surprised by 38 degrees in Sydney in November?
Summer came early, say all the people looking for something to blame. On Wednesday the temperature reached 38ยฐC at Sydney airport. Barely five years ago in 2019 there were nine days that November above 30ยฐC. Thirty percent of the whole month was above 30.
It hit 40ยฐC at Sydney airport on November in 2006. There were six days that month over 30C. Somehow, with barely any renewables and no batteries at all, the lights stayed on thanks to coal power. Paul McArdle noted at the time that during the 40ยฐC heat, the whole national grid used 29GW of electricity but there was 6GW of surplus power in reserve and ready to go. When electricity was cheap, and no-one had to hide behind the blinds or cook dinner after 9pm, the coal fired grid had a 21% reserve plant margin.
By Alex Dimitriadi and Robert White, The Australian
Mr Bowen blamed volatility in the electricity grid on coal-fired power stations, saying on Thursday that they were its โbiggest threatโ, spruiking a second-term Labor governmentโs plan to ยญprioritise renewables and underpinned by gas.
โThe least reliable part of our energy grid is coal-fired power,โ he said. โThere hasnโt been a day in the last 18 months when we havenโt had a breakdown in a coal-fired power station.
Someone needs to tell our Minister of Energy that there hasnโt been a day in the last 18 months when solar didnโt fail.
There was not a single day we could make the wind blow at 6pm on command like we do every day for gas.
There was not a single day when retail electricity prices were cheap.
โWhat the Australian Energy Market Operator told me was that batteries were essential for getting NSW through yesterday.โ
What the AEMO should have shown you was this graph done by one man (why canโt the AEMO draw graphs as useful as Andrew Miskelly?).
Where are the batteries? Not visible. What kept the lights on: black coal, brown coal, and when solar failed as the clouds came over, natural gas arrived to save the day.
Energy operator expected to seal long-term reserves in bid to prevent more blackout warnings
The Australian Energy Market Operator is expected to imminently agree to new reserve contracts that once agreed will allow the agency extra capacity ahead of a critical summer period.
Seoul has recorded its heaviest November snowfall since records began over a century ago in 1907.
The South Korean capital was covered with at least 16 cm of snow on Wednesday โ beating the cityโs previous record of 12.4cm from November 1972.
It caused significant disruption across the country, with local media reporting that flights had been grounded, roads closed, and that there were delays to transport services.
At least one person is reported to have died in a weather-related traffic accident near Seoul.
Morrisons, Tesco and Aldi say itโs a โgreat way of testingโ how to reduce methane emissions
Europeโs biggest dairy company is facing a backlash after giving cows a synthetic additive to their feed in anย attempt to cut their methane emissions.
Morrisons, Tesco and Aldi say itโs a โgreat way of testingโ how to reduce methane emissions
Europeโs biggest dairy company is facing a backlash after giving cows a synthetic additive to their feed in anย attempt to cut their methane emissions.
Arla, which makes brands including Lurpak butter and Cravendale milk, said it was working with Morrisons, Tesco and Aldi to trial giving cows the additive Bovaer. The Telegraph has the story.
Arla said Bovaer had been found to reduce methane emissions from cows by around 27pc.
Morrisons, Tesco and Aldi said it was a โgreat way of testing out where we can drive change at scale to bring down emissionsโ.
However, the announcement sparked a backlash on social media, with some shoppers raising concerns about the use of additives in their groceries.
Some went as far as to say they would no longer shop at supermarkets involved in the trial, while others urged the grocers to label any products which may have come from the farms using the additive.
There is no suggestion that the additive is not safe for consumers, with the UKโs Food Standard Agency having approved it for use.
The regulator also said that Bovaer poses โan acceptableโ risk to the environment.
Customers have no โstrong connectionโ to net zero
Clive Black, a retail analyst at Shore Capital, said supermarkets still faced a challenge in convincing customers of the merits of net zero: โNot many shoppers really are making choices about the groceries they buy on the basis of sustainability. There is a stronger connection to aspects like animal welfare, but not net zero.โ
Weak demand for EVs and mandatory sales quotas will cost Britainโs automotive industry ยฃ6bn in 2024, according to new analysis from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
Weak demand for EVs and mandatory sales quotas will cost Britainโs automotive industry ยฃ6bn in 2024, according to new analysis from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
Consequently, the UKโs automotive industry is calling for government intervention to safeguard the sector and Britainโs transition to zero emission vehicles.
Applicable since January 2024, the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate sets out the percentage of new zero emission cars and vans manufacturers will be required to produce each year up to 2030. In total, 80 per cent of new cars and 70 per cent of new vans sold in the UK must be zero emission by 2030, increasing to 100 per cent by 2035.
When the mandate was unveiled, industry anticipated that 457,000 electric cars would be registered in 2024, which should have accounted for 23.3 per cent of all new car registrations. The latest outlook shows 94,000 fewer cars will be registered, totalling 363,000 with a market share of 18.7 per cent. The situation is worse for vans with the outlook halved to 20,000 units expected to be registered this year, a 5.7 per cent market share against a 2024 target of 10 per cent.
So far, manufacturers have subsidised sales, incentivising fleet, business and consumer EV sales through an estimated ยฃ4bn worth of discounts. Despite this, the industry looks likely to miss the 22 per cent EV market share demanded by the mandate, potentially creating a ยฃ1.8bn bill for compliance for those missing their targets for cars alone.
According to SMMT, the result is a โcompliance billโ of almost ยฃ6bn in 2024, with costs mounting in 2025. With global manufacturers making production cutbacks due to weak EV demand, such losses could force brands to withdraw from the UK market and cause global investors to question the UKโs appeal as a place to manufacture.
In a statement, Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: โWe need an urgent review of the automotive market and the regulation intended to drive it. Not because we want to water down any commitments, but because delivery matters more than notional targets. The industry is hurting; profitability and viability are in jeopardy and jobs are on the line. When the world changes, so must we. Workable regulation โ backed with incentives โ will set us up for success and green growth over the next decade.โ
SMMT โs follows a decision by Stellantis to consider closing its Luton van plant and consolidate those operations into its Ellesmere Port plant. Stellantis said the decision has been โmade within the context of the UKโs ZEV Mandateโ.
So extreme, they cannot be explained by global warming models!
From the Columbia Climate School and the โhave you checked the accuracy and placement of thermometersโ and the โweather is not climateโ departments come this new study that is hilarious in its lameness. Itโs like these people have never heard of weather before, and they only exist in climate headspace. โ Anthony
So extreme, they cannot be explained by global warming models!
From the Columbia Climate School and the โhave you checked the accuracy and placement of thermometersโ and the โweather is not climateโ departments come this new study that is hilarious in its lameness. Itโs like these people have never heard of weather before, and they only exist in climate headspace. โ Anthony
Earthโs hottest recorded year was 2023, at 2.12 degrees F above the 20th-century average. This surpassed the previous record set in 2016. So far, the 10 hottest yearly average temperatures have occurred in the past decade. And, with the hottest summer and hottest single day, 2024 is on track to set yet another record.
All this may not be breaking news to everyone, but amid this upward march in average temperatures, a striking new phenomenon is emerging distinct regions are seeing repeated heat waves that are so extreme, they fall far beyond what any model of global warming can predict or explain.ย A new studyย provides the first worldwide map of such regions, which show up on every continent except Antarctica like giant, angry skin blotches. In recent years these heat waves have killed tens of thousands of people, withered crops and forests, and sparked devastating wildfires.
โThe large and unexpected margins by which recent regional-scale extremes have broken earlier records have raised questions about the degree to which climate models can provide adequate estimates of relations between global mean temperature changes and regional climate risks,โ says the study.
โThis is about extreme trends that are the outcome of physical interactions we might not completely understand,โ said lead author Kai Kornhuber, an adjunct scientist at the Columbia Climate Schoolโs Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. โThese regions become temporary hothouses.โ Kornhuber is also a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria.
The study was just published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The study looks at heat waves over the past 65 years, identifying areas where extreme heat is accelerating considerably faster than more moderate temperatures. This often results in maximum temperatures that have been repeatedly broken by outsize, sometimes astonishing, amounts. For instance, a nine-day wave that hammered the U.S. Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada in June 2021 broke daily records in some locales by 30 degrees C, or 54 F. This included the highest ever temperature recorded in Canada, 121.3 F, in Lytton, British Columbia. The town burned to the ground the next day in a wildfire driven in large part by the drying of vegetation in the extraordinary heat. In Oregon and Washington state, hundreds of people died from heat stroke and other health conditions.
Daily maximum temperature anomalies during recent record-breaking heatwaves and their temporal context. (A) 2-m daily maximum temperature (Tx) anomaly fields averaged over the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave in North America. Regions where values were record-breaking (since 1950) during the indicated time period are hatched. (B) Time series for the years 1950 to 2023 of the hottest annual average Tx anomaly over the region indicated by the box inย Aย (relative to 1981 to 2010 JuneโAugust). The record-breaking values of regional-mean Tx and their dates are highlighted (red dot) in each time series. (Cย andย D) same asย Aย andย Bย but for the western European heatwave in July 2022, (Eย andย F) for the heatwave in the Amazon Basin in November 2023 (warm season SeptemberโNovember) and (Gย andย H) the heatwave in Southern Africa (warm season DecemberโFebruary) in January 2016.
These extreme heat waves have been hitting predominantly in the last five years or so, though some occurred in the early 2000s or before. The most hard-hit regions include populous central China, Japan, Korea, the Arabian Peninsula, eastern Australia and scattered parts of Africa. Others include Canadaโs Northwest Territories and its High Arctic islands, northern Greenland, the southern end of South America and scattered patches of Siberia. Areas of Texas and New Mexico appear on the map, though they are not at the most extreme end.
According to the report, the most intense and consistent signal comes from northwestern Europe, where sequences of heat waves contributed to some 60,000 deaths in 2022 and 47,000 deaths in 2023. These occurred across Germany, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and other countries. Here, in recent years, the hottest days of the year are warming twice as fast the summer mean temperatures. The region is especially vulnerable in part because, unlike places like the United States, few people have air conditioning, because traditionally it was almost never needed. The outbreaks have continued; as recently as this September, new maximum temperature records were set in Austria, France, Hungary, Slovenia, Norway and Sweden.
The researchers call the statistical trends โtail-wideningโ โthat is, the anomalous occurrence of temperatures at the far upper end, or beyond, anything that would be expected with simple upward shifts in mean summer temperatures. But the phenomenon is not happening everywhere; the study shows that maximum temperatures across many other regions are actually lower than what models would predict. These include wide areas of the north-central United States and south-central Canada, interior parts of South America, much of Siberia, northern Africa and northern Australia. Heat is increasing in these regions as well, but the extremes are increasing at similar or lower speed than what changes in average would suggest.
Climbing overall temperatures make heat waves more likely in many cases, but the causes of the extreme heat outbreaks are not entirely clear. In Europe and Russia, an earlier study led by Kornhuber blamed heat waves and droughts on wobbles in the jet stream, a fast-moving river of air that continuously circles the northern hemisphere. Hemmed in by historically frigid temperatures in the far north and much warmer ones further south, the jet stream generally confines itself to a narrow band. But the Arctic is warming on average far more quickly than most other parts of the Earth, and this appears to be destabilizing the jet stream, causing it to develop so-called Rossby waves, which suck hot air from the south and park it in temperate regions that normally do not see extreme heat for days or weeks at a time.
This is only one hypothesis, and it does not seem to explain all the extremes. A study of the fatal 2021 Pacific Northwest/southwestern Canada heat wave led by Lamont-Doherty graduate student Samuel Bartusek (also a coauthor on the latest paper) identified a confluence of factors. Some seemed connected to long-term climate change, others to chance. The study identified a disruption in the jet stream similar to the Rossby waves thought to affect Europe and Russia. It also found that decades of slowly rising temperatures had been drying out regional vegetation, so that when a spell of hot weather came along, plants had fewer reserves of water to evaporate into the air, a process that helps moderate heat. A third factor: a series of smaller-scale atmospheric waves that gathered heat from the Pacific Ocean surface and transported it eastward onto land. Like Europe, few people in this region have air conditioning, because it is generally not needed, and this probably upped the death toll.
The heat wave โwas so extreme, itโs tempting to apply the label of a โblack swanโ event, one that canโt be predicted,โ said Bartusek. โBut thereโs a boundary between the totally unpredictable, the plausible and the totally expected thatโs hard to categorize. I would call this more of a grey swan.โ
While the wealthy United States is better prepared than many other places, excessive heat nevertheless kills more people than all other weather-related causes combined, including hurricanes, tornadoes and floods. According to a study out this past August, the yearly death rate has more than doubled since 1999, with 2,325 heat-related deaths in 2023. This has recently led to calls for heat waves to be named, similar to hurricanes, in order to heighten public awareness and motivate governments to prepare.
โDue to their unprecedented nature, these heat waves are usually linked to verysevere health impacts, and can be disastrous for agriculture,vegetation and infrastructure,โ said Kornhuber. โWeโre not built for them, and we mightnot be able to adapt fast enough.โ
The study was also coauthored by Richard Seager and Mingfang Ting of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and H.J. Schellnhuber of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
For most of my adult life, climate alarmists have ruled the day as they have methodically and successfully injected their relentless fearmongering and bogus science throughout academia, the mainstream media, Hollywood, and just about every other major, powerful cultural institution. While this has paid giant dividends in recent years, it has also fueled a backlash that we are finally starting to see bubble to the surface.
Guest essay by Chris Talgo originally published at TownHall
For most of my adult life, climate alarmists have ruled the day as they have methodically and successfully injected their relentless fearmongering and bogus science throughout academia, the mainstream media, Hollywood, and just about every other major, powerful cultural institution. While this has paid giant dividends in recent years, it has also fueled a backlash that we are finally starting to see bubble to the surface.
Letโs begin by briefly recapping how the climate alarmists were able to hypnotize so many people into believing that climate change was an existential crisisโwhich it is notโin the first place.
At the end of the twentieth century and into the dawn of the twenty-first century, we began to see more and more calls for international bodies to address what they initially deemed โglobal warming.โ In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was born, which was intended to combat โdangerous human interference with the climate system.โ
Since then, the United Nations and several other influential international organizations have pounded the climate change message while weaving a spiderweb of agreements, treaties, and protocols to mitigate the so-called climate crisis.
While these powerful global institutions were ringing the alarm bell that the future of the planet was in immediate jeopardy due to humanityโs use of fossil fuels, a network of grifters emerged who were more than ready to capitalize on the alarmist narrative.
From former Vice President Al Gore to scores of scientists, it became clear that if one jumped on the climate alarmist bandwagon in these early days, there was money to be made and government grants to be gotten.
Not much later, we began to witness high-ranking political officials from both sides of the aisle succumb to the climate alarmist narrative. For instance, way back in 2001, then-President George W. Bush was touting his administrationโs climate change agenda.
Then came the cultural deluge as K-12 educators, professors, actors and actresses, TV and radio personalities, social media influencers, and even uneducated child activists from Sweden persistently peddled the climate alarmist narrative.
However, what goes up must come down.
After more than two decades of unyielding climate alarmism, climate realism is slowly starting to take hold.
How do I know this? Because ordinary, hard-working Americans are no longer buying into climate alarmism hook, line, and sinker.
Americans are finally starting to understand the truth about climate change while simultaneously becoming aware that climate alarmists have ulterior motives at hand, many of which are in direct opposition to the fundamental best interests of everyday Americans.
Thanks to courageous truth seekers like my colleagues at The Heartland Institute and many allied organizations, Americans are more able than ever to receive accurate information dispelling common myths and lies pushed by climate alarmists. As anyone can read at ClimateRealism.com, the seas are not rising and weather events like hurricanes, heatwaves, droughts, etc. are not becoming more frequent nor deadlier. In fact, in many cases, the exact opposite is occurring.
Another huge factor that helped Americans realize the dubiousness of the climate alarmist narrative is that their solutions make no sense, do not address the so-called problems, and all too often end with less liberty and more government. Apparently, Americans are beginning to understand that climate justice, for instance, is mostly about wealth redistribution and has little to do with a cleaner environment.
A few weeks ago, Americans went to the polls and clearly rejected the climate alarmist nonsense that has been hoisted upon the nation over the past four years. Without a doubt, the Biden-Harris administration has been the most zealous when it comes to climate alarmism. From nixing the Keystone XL Pipeline to mandating electric vehicles to deciding the type of appliances Americans can purchase, the Biden-Harris administration has been all-in on climate alarmism.
But this is not what the American people want. To be clear, nearly all Americans want to protect the environment and desire clean air and water.
They just donโt want their lives upended and their bank accounts drained under the guise of saving the planet. They want reliable and affordable electricity. They want cheap gasoline. And, they want the U.S. government to take full advantage of the abundant energy reserves right under our feet. This is at least partly why President-elect Donald Trump won the White House and the GOP took control of the U.S. Senate.
Now that Trump is back in the Oval Office, we can expect U.S. energy dominance, not climate alarmism, to rule the day. That is welcome news for hard-working Americans, albeit a total nightmare for climate alarmists and the cottage industry it has spawned.
Chris Talgo (ctalgo@heartland.org) is editorial director at The Heartland Institute.
An error or fault resulting from defective judgment, deficient knowledge, or carelessness.
A misconception or misunderstanding.
Five Major IPCC Science Mistakes
โฆ Surface stations records have warmed mostly from urban heat sources, not IR-active gases.
โฆ Solar climate forcing varies more than IPCC admits.
โฆ Experiments show more CO2 does not make air warmer.
โฆ On all time scales temperature changes lead and CO2 changes follow.
โฆ IPCC climate models exclude natural climate factors to blame all warming on GHGs.
Mistakes on Temperature Records and Solar Forcing
The first two misconceptions are described in a recent paper by CERES (Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences). My post below provides the details.
Overview of CERES Study
Our review suggests that the IPCC reports have inadequately accounted for two major scientific concerns when they were evaluating the causes of global warming since the 1850s:
1. The global temperature estimates used in the IPCC reports are contaminated by urban warming biases. 2. The estimates of solar activity changes since the 1850s considered by the IPCC substantially downplayed a possible large role for the Sun.
We conclude that it is not scientifically valid for the IPCC to rule out the possibility that global warming might be mostly natural.
Fatal Flaw Discredits IPCC Science
By way of John Ray comes this Spectator Australia article A basic flaw in IPCC science. Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.
Detailed research is underway that threatens to undermine the foundations of the climate science promoted by the IPCC since its First Assessment Report in 1992. The research is re-examining the rural and urban temperature records in the Northern Hemisphere that are the foundation for the IPCCโs estimates of global warming since 1850. The research team has been led by Dr Willie Soon (a Malaysian solar astrophysicist associated with the Smithsonian Institute for many years) and two highly qualified Irish academics โ Dr Michael Connolly and his son Dr Ronan Connolly. They have formed a climate research group CERES-SCIENCE. Their detailed research will be a challenge for the IPCC 7th Assessment Report due to be released in 2029 as their research results challenge the very foundations of IPCC science.
The climate warming trend published by the IPCC is a continually updated graph based on the temperature records of Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature stations dating from the mid 19th Century. The latest IPCC 2021 report uses data for the period 1850-2018. The IPCCโs selection of Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature records is not in question and is justifiable. The Northern Hemisphere records provide the best database for this period. The Southern Hemisphere land temperature records are not that extensive and are sparse for the 19th and early 20th Century. It is generally agreed that the urban temperature data is significantly warmer than the rural data in the same region because of an urban warming bias. This bias is due to night-time surface radiation of the daytime solar radiation absorbed by concrete and bitumen. Such radiation leads to higher urban night-time temperatures than say in the nearby countryside. The IPCC acknowledges such a warming bias but allegesthe increased effect is only 10 per cent and therefore does not significantly distort its published global warming trend lines.
Since 2018, Dr Soon and his partners have analysed theย data from rural and urban temperature recording stations in China, the USA, the Arctic, and Ireland.ย The number ofย stations with reliable temperature recordsย in these areas increased fromย very few in the mid-19th Century to around 4,000 in the 1970s before decreasing to around 2,000 by the 1990s.ย Theย ruralย temperature recordingย stationsย with good recordsย peaked at 400 and are presently around 200.
Their analysis of individual stations needs to account for any variation in their exposure to the Sun due to changes in their location, OR shadowing due to the construction of nearby buildings, OR nearby vegetation growth. The analysis of rural temperature stations is further complicated as over timeย many are encroached by nearby cities.ย Consequently, the data from such stations needs to be shifted at certain dates from the rural temperature database to either an intermediate database or to a full urban database. Consequently, an accurate analysis of the temperature records of each recording station is a time-consuming task.
Thisย new analysis of 4,000 temperature recording stationsย in China, the USA, the Arctic, and Ireland shows a warming trend ofย 0.89ยบC per century in the urban stationsย that is 1.61 times higher that a warming trend ofย 0.55ยบC per century in the rural stations. This difference isย far more significantย than the 10 per cent divergence between urban and rural stations alleged in the IPCC reports; a divergence explained by a potentialย flaw in the IPCCโs methodology.ย The IPCC uses a technique calledย homogenisation that averages the rural and urban temperatures in a particular region. This method distorts the rural temperature records as overย 75 per cent of the temperature recordsย used in this homogenisation methodologyย are urbanย stations. So, a methodology that attempts to statistically identify and correct some biases that may be in the raw data, in effect, leads to an urban blending of the rural dataset. This result is biased as itย downgrades the actual values of each rural temperature station. In contrast,ย Dr Soon and his coworkersย avoided homogenisation so theย temperature trends they identify for each rural region are accurateย as the rural data are not distorted by the readings from nearby urban stations.
The rural temperature trend measured by this new research is 0.55ยบC per century and itย indicates the Earth has warmed 0.9ยบC since 1850. In contrast, the urban temperature trend measured by this new research is 0.89ยบC per century and indicates a much higher warming of 1.5ยบC since 1850. Consequently, aย distorted urban warming trend has been used by the IPCCย to quantify the warming of the whole of the Earth since 1850. Theย exaggeration is significantย as the urban temperature record database used by the IPCC only represents the temperatures on 3-4 per cent of the Earthโs land surface area; an area less than 2 per cent of the Earthโs total surface area. During the next few years, Dr Willie Soon and his research team areย currently analysing the meta-history of 800 European temperature recording stations. When this is done their research will be based on very significant database of Northern Hemisphere rural and urban temperature records from China, the USA, the Arctic, Ireland, and Europe.
This new research has unveiled another flaw in the IPCCโs temperature narrative as trend lines in its revised temperature datasets are different from those published by the IPCC. For example, the rural records now show a marked warming trend in the 1930s and 1940s while there is only a slight warming trend in the IPCC dataset. The most significant difference is the existence of a marked cooling period in the rural dataset for the 1960s and 1970s that is almost absent in the IPCCโs urban dataset. This later divergence upsets the common narrative that rising carbon dioxide levels control modern warming trends. For, if carbon dioxide levels are the driver of modern warming, how can a higher rate of increasing carbon dioxide levels exist within a cooling period in the 1960s and 1970s while a lower increasing rate of carbon dioxide levels coincides with an earlier warming interval in the 1930s and 1940s? Or, in other words, how can carbon dioxide levels increasing at 1.7 parts per million per decade cause a distinct warming period in the 1930s and 1940s while a larger increasing rate of 10.63 parts per million per decade is associated with a distinct cooling period in the 1960s and 1970s! Consequently, the research of Willie Soon and his coworkers is discrediting, not only the higher rate of global warming trends specified in IPCC Reports, but also the theory that rising carbon dioxide levels explain modern warming trends; a lynchpin of IPCC science for the last 25 years.
Willie Soon and his coworkers maintain that climate scientists need to consider other possible explanations for recent global warming. Willie Soon and his coworkers point to the Sun, but the IPCC maintains that variations in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) are over eons and not over shorter periods such as the last few centuries. For that reason, the IPCC point to changes in greenhouse gases as the most obvious explanation for global warming since 1850. In contrast, Willie Soon and his coworkers maintain there can be short-term changes in solar activity and, for example, refer to a period of no sunspot activity that coincided with the Little Ice Age in the 17th Century. They also point out there is still no agreed average figure for Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) despite 30 years of measurements taken by various satellites. Consequently, they contend research in this area is not settled.
The CERES-SCIENCE research project pioneered by Dr Willie Soon and the father-son Connolly team has questioned the validity of the high global warming trends for the 1850-present period that have been published by the IPCC since its first report in 1992. The research also queries the IPCC narrative that rising greenhouse gas concentrations, particularly carbon dioxide, are the primary driver of global warming since 1850. That narrative has been the foundation of IPCC climate science for the last 40 years. It will be interesting to see how the IPCCโs 7th Assessment Report in 2029 treats this new research that questions the very basis of IPCCโs climate science.
A statistical analysis was applied to Northern Hemisphere land surface temperatures (1850โ2018) to try to identify the main drivers of the observed warming since the mid-19th century. Two different temperature estimates were consideredโa rural and urban blend (that matches almost exactly with most current estimates) and a rural-only estimate. The rural and urban blend indicates a long-term warming of 0.89 ยฐC/century since 1850, while the rural-only indicates 0.55 ยฐC/century. This contradicts a common assumption that current thermometer-based global temperature indices are relatively unaffected by urban warming biases.
Three main climatic drivers were considered, following the approaches adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)โs recent 6th Assessment Report (AR6): two natural forcings (solar and volcanic) and the composite โall anthropogenic forcings combinedโ time series recommended by IPCC AR6. The volcanic time series was that recommended by IPCC AR6. Two alternative solar forcing datasets were contrasted. One was the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) time series that was recommended by IPCC AR6. The other TSI time series was apparently overlooked by IPCC AR6. It was found that altering the temperature estimate and/or the choice of solar forcing dataset resulted in very different conclusions as to the primary drivers of the observed warming.
Our analysis focused on the Northern Hemispheric land component of global surface temperatures since this is the most data-rich component. It reveals that important challenges remain for the broader detection and attribution problem of global warming: (1) urbanization bias remains a substantial problem for the global land temperature data; (2) it is still unclear which (if any) of the many TSI time series in the literature are accurate estimates of past TSI; (3) the scientific community is not yet in a position to confidently establish whether the warming since 1850 is mostly human-caused, mostly natural, or some combination. Suggestions for how these scientific challenges might be resolved are offered.
Mistake on CO2 Warming Effect
Thomas Allmendinger is a Swiss physicist educated at Zurich ETH whose practical experience is in the fields of radiology and elemental particles physics. His complete biography is here.
His independent research and experimental analyses of greenhouse gas (GHG) theory over the last decade led to several published studies, including the latest summation The Real Origin of Climate Change and the Feasibilities of Its Mitigation, 2023, at Atmospheric and Climate Sciences journal. The paper is a thorough and detailed discussion of which I provide here the abstract and the excerpt describing the experiment. Excerpts are in italics with my bolds and added images. Full post is Experimental Proof Nil Warming from GHGs.
Abstract
The actual treatise represents a synopsis of six important previous contributions of the author, concerning atmospheric physics and climate change. Since this issue is influenced by politics like no other, and since the greenhouse-doctrine with CO2 as the culprit in climate change is predominant, the respective theory has to be outlined, revealing its flaws and inconsistencies.
But beyond that, the authorโs own contributions are focused and deeply discussed. The most eminent one concerns the discovery of the absorption of thermal radiation by gases, leading to warming-up, and implying a thermal radiation of gases which depends on their pressure. This delivers the final evidence that trace gases such as CO2 donโt have any influence on the behaviour of the atmosphere, and thus on climate.
But the most useful contribution concerns the method which enables to determine the solar absorption coefficient ฮฒs of coloured opaque plates. It delivers the foundations for modifying materials with respect to their capability of climate mitigation. Thereby, the main influence is due to the colouring, in particular of roofs which should be painted, preferably light-brown (not white, from aesthetic reasons).
It must be clear that such a drive for brightening-up the World would be the only chance of mitigating the climate, whereas the greenhouse doctrine, related to CO2, has to be abandoned. However, a global climate model with forecasts cannot be aspired to since this problem is too complex, and since several climate zones exist.
4. Thermal Gas Absorption Measurements
If the warming-up behaviour of gases has to be determined by temperature measurements, interference by the walls of the gas vessel should be regarded since they exhibit a significantly higher heat capacity than the gas does, which implicates a slower warming-up rate. Since solid materials absorb thermal radiation stronger than gases do, the risk exists that the walls of the vessel are directly warmed up by the radiation, and that they subsequently transfer the heat to the gas. And finally, even the thin glass-walls of the thermometers may disturb the measurements by absorbing thermal radiation.
By these reasons, quadratic tubes with a relatively large profile (20 cm) were used which consisted of 3 cm thick plates from Styrofoam, and which were covered at the ends by thin plastic foils. In order to measure the temperature course along the tube, mercury-thermometers were mounted at three positions (beneath, in the middle, and atop) whose tips were covered with aluminum foils. The test gases were supplied from steel cylinders being equipped with reducing valves. They were introduced by a connecter during approx. one hour, because the tube was not gastight and not enough consistent for an evacuation. The filling process was monitored by means of a hygrometer since the air, which had to be replaced, was slightly humid. Afterwards, the tube was optimized by attaching adhesive foils and thin aluminum foils (see Figure 13). The equipment and the results are reported in [21].
Figure 13. Solar-tube, adjustable to the sun [21].
Theย initial measurements were made outdoor with twin-tubes in the presence of solar light.ย Oneย tube wasย filled with air,ย and theย other one with carbon-dioxide.ย Thereby, theย temperature increasedย within a few minutes by approx. ten degreesย till constant limiting temperatures were attained,ย namelyย simultaneouslyย at all positions. Surprisingly, this was the case in both tubes, thus also in the tube which was filled with ambient air. Already this result delivered the proof thatย the greenhouse theory cannot be true.ย Moreover, it gave rise toย investigateย the phenomenonย more thoroughlyย by means of artificial, better defined light.
Figure 14. Heat-radiation tube with IR-spot [21].
Accordingly, the subsequent experiments were made using IR-spots with wattages of 50 W, 100 W and 150W which are normally employed for terraria (Figure 14). Particularly the IR-spot with 150 W lead to a considerably higher temperature increase of the included gas than it was the case when sunlight was applied, since its ratio of thermal radiation was higher. Thereby, variable impacts such as the nature of the gas could be evaluated.
Due to the results withย IR-spots at different gasesย (air, carbon-dioxide, the noble gases argon, neon and helium), essential knowledge could be gained. In each case, the irradiated gasย warmed up until a stable limiting temperature was attained.ย Analogously to the case of irradiated coloured solid plates, the temperature increased until the equilibrium state was attained where the heat absorption rate was identically equal with the heat emission rate.
Figure 15. Time/temperature-curves for different gases [21] (150 W-spot, medium thermometer-position).
As evident from the diagram in Figure 15, the initial observation made with sunlight was approved that pure carbon-dioxide was warmed up almost to the same degree as air does (whereby ambient air only scarcely differed from a 4:1 mixture between nitrogen and oxygen). Moreover, noble gases absorb thermal radiation, too. As subsequently outlined, a theoretical explanation could be found thereto.
Conclusion
Finally, the theoretically suggested dependency of the atmospheric thermal radiation intensity on the atmospheric pressure could be empirically verified by measurements at different altitudes, namely in Glattbrugg (430 m above sea level and on the top of the Furka-pass (2430 m above sea level), both in Switzerland, delivering a so-called atmospheric emission constant A โ 22 Wยทmโ2โขbarโ1โขKโ0.5. It explained the altitude-paradox of the atmospheric temperature and delivered the definitive evidence that the atmospheric behavior, and thus the climate, does not depend on trace gases such as CO2. However, the atmosphere thermally reradiates indeed, leading to something similar to a Greenhouse effect. But this effect is solely due to the atmospheric pressure.
Mistake on Warming Prior to CO2 Rising
Changes in CO2 follow changes in global temperatures on all time scales, from last monthโs observations to ice core datasets spanning millennia. Since CO2 is the lagging variable, it cannot logically be the cause of temperature, the leading variable. It is folly to imagine that by reducing human emissions of CO2, we can change global temperatures, which are obviously driven by other factors. Most recent post on this:
In 2009, the iconic email from the Climategate leak included a comment by Phil Jones about the โtrickโ used by Michael Mann to โhide the decline,โ in his Hockey Stick graph, referring to tree proxy temperatures cooling rather than warming in modern times. Now we have an important paper demonstrating that climate models insist on man-made global warming only by hiding the incline of natural warming in Pre-Industrial times. The paper is From Behavioral Climate Models and Millennial Data to AGW Reassessment by Philippe de Larminat. H/T No Tricks Zone. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.
Abstract
Context. The so called AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming), is based on thousands of climate simulations indicating that human activity is virtually solely responsible for the recent global warming. The climate models used are derived from the meteorological models used for short-term predictions. They are based on the fundamental and empirical physical laws that govern the myriad of atmospheric and oceanic cells integrated by the finite element technique. Numerical approximations, empiricism and the inherent chaos in fluid circulations make these models questionable for validating the anthropogenic principle, given the accuracy required (better than one per thousand) in determining the Earth energy balance.
Aims and methods. The purpose is to quantify and simulate behavioral models of weak complexity, without referring to predefined parameters of the underlying physical laws, but relying exclusively on generally accepted historical and paleoclimate series.
Results. These models perform global temperature simulations that are consistent with those from the more complex physical models. However, the repartition of contributions in the present warming depends strongly on the retained temperature reconstructions, in particular the magnitudes of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. It also depends on the level of the solar activity series. It results from these observations and climate reconstructions that the anthropogenic principle only holds for climate profiles assuming almost no PCA neither significant variations in solar activity. Otherwise, it reduces to a weak principle where global warming is not only the result of human activity, but is largely due to solar activity. Full post is here:
Earlier this week the Labour backbencher and Chairman of the U.K. Parliamentโs Energy Committee Bill Esterson noted that people will have to adjust their habits to meet Net Zero emission goals for 2030. Such honesty, emerging as it does from the Parliament of Net Zero nodding donkeys, is to be applauded. As far as it goes. Try a 30% reduction in energy demand.
Earlier this week the Labour backbencher and Chairman of the U.K. Parliamentโs Energy Committee Bill Esterson noted that people will have to adjust their habits to meet Net Zero emission goals for 2030. Such honesty, emerging as it does from the Parliament of Net Zero nodding donkeys, is to be applauded. As far as it goes. Try a 30% reduction in energy demand. After 2030, consider that all beef, lamb and dairy will be banned and โreplaced by new dietsโ. Then there is a massive 45% cut in most common building materials such as cement, along with a similar reduction in road freight traffic. The attack on farming will be remorseless with fertiliser restriction halving โdirect emissionโ from the soil. To sum up: widespread rationing and blackouts along with food, holiday and travel restrictions, all within about 60 months.
Look at what they fund and write and whom they consult, not what they say, is the best advice to counter all the whoppers that are being told about Net Zero. Sir Keir Starmerโs statement at the recent COP29 that he didnโt want to tell people how to live their lives can only be explained by noting it came from a British Prime Minister who has difficulty telling a woman from a man. Thankfully we have the Government-funded U.K. FIRES project to give us an honest heads-up on the near-term implications of Net Zero. All of the substantial reductions in energy, food and industrial materials mentioned above arise from its โpragmatic approachโ. Its evidence-based conclusions rely on technologies that are available today. It excludes processes such as carbon capture and hydrogen that have yet to be proven at meaningful scale.
Its conclusions warm the hearts of the most committed green ideologues. Its reports also happen to be the most honest representation of the horrors that await if the Net Zero fantasy ever becomes a reality.
By 2028 a total of seven million heat pumps will need to be installed and massive retrofits undertaken in domestic homes. Meanwhile, all rented and non-domestic properties will need to be EPC A rated by 2030. The desire to โmanage land use for Net Zero emissionsโ means a massive cut in chemical fertilisers, so expect food supply to fall off a cliff.
U.K. FIRES notes, correctly, that there is โinsufficient time for the planning, development and construction of new large-scale infrastructure to contribute to the 2030 targetโ. Again correctly, it is observed that increased use of wind and solar power creates a problem with intermittency. โEventually, this must be addressed by either demand-shifting or storage,โ it states. Storage at scale is more or less impossible with current technology, and another word for โdemand-shiftingโ is rationing. To enforce these consumption restraints across the broad range of modern industrial lifestyles, a โwhole societyโ approach must be mobilised.
U.K. FIRES received a ยฃ5 million grant from the British Government and its warnings โ or should that be wishes โ about 2030 are contained in a report called โMinus 45โ prepared ahead of the Glasgow COP26 in 2021. It is based on a U.K. Government promise to reduce carbon emissions by 45% from 2018 to 2030. Its recommendations are relevant today, not least because Starmer tried to curry favour at the recent COP29 in Baku by promising to reduce emissions further.
That would be the COP29 conference that made great progress in destroying the system of bribes paid out as so-called climate aid to developing countries to stop them developing with the aid of hydrocarbons. Nobody knows who will pay for a promised ยฃ1.3 trillion a year by 2035, not least because President Trump will sweep away any American commitment with a stroke of the executive pen come January 20th. Helpfully, if anyone cares enough to move from lip service to actual action, creative climate accounting is still possible. A requirement to ban the construction of coal-fired power stations was removed from an early draft and it failed to make it into the final communiquรฉ. This will no doubt please the Japanese who backed the building of the Matarbari ultra-supercritical coal-fired power station in Bangladesh on the grounds that it used Japanese technology to generate more energy with less coal. At COP29, diplomacy was โtruly the art of agreeing to nothingโ, notes David Wojick from CFACT.
The shamble at COP demonstrates that the world is moving away from the idea that hydrocarbons can be removed from a modern economy. But an accident of recent electoral politics has left Britain with a fanatical Government of Net Zero zealots. The anti-working class Labour party was returned to power with a popular vote count less than its losing Marxist leader obtained in 2019. The U.K. FIRES work demonstrates what lies in store. A resurgent America bounding ahead on cheap energy and unleashed entrepreneurial spirits will contrast with its European allies shutting down industrial manufacturing in pursuit of an increasing unpopular state-mandated doomsday cult.
Chris Morrison is the Daily ScepticโsEnvironment Editor.
The International Renewable Energy Agency, IRENA, makes no secret that its only objective is to promote renewable energy. It is an intergovernmental organization, with 169 member countries plus the EU.
The International Renewable Energy Agency, IRENA, makes no secret that its only objective is to promote renewable energy. It is an intergovernmental organization, with 169 member countries plus the EU.
One of its main tools is to convince governments and public that renewable energy is much cheaper than fossil fuels. They have produced this dashboard for onshore wind costs:
The UK costs are said to be $0.0314/kWh, which equates to about ยฃ25.12/MWh. Yet the clearing price for onshore wind at this yearโs CfD auction was ยฃ50.90/MWh at 2012 prices, which uplifts to ยฃ69.91 at 2023 prices:
Clearly IRENAโs costs are not only fake, they are fraudulent. If the UKโs costings are wrong, no doubt every other countryโs is as well.
In any event LCOEs, that is levelised costs, are meaningless, as they donโt include all of the indirect costs associated with intermittency.
It is worth noting that the BEIS levelised costings published last year, also an unrealistically low cost for onshore wind, though not quite as fanciful as IRENAโs.
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