Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
EV sales remain well below the mandated target of 28% for this year, despite slowing registrations of petrol/diesel models, as manufacturers cut back to avoid fines. Although they are up on the low levels of a year ago, they are struggling to get above the 20% level set in 2024.
EV sales remain well below the mandated target of 28% for this year, despite slowing registrations of petrol/diesel models, as manufacturers cut back to avoid fines. Although they are up on the low levels of a year ago, they are struggling to get above the 20% level set in 2024.
Sales of EVs have also been brought forward to avoid the vehicle duty increases taking effect form this month.
It must be as plain as a pikestaff now that the public are not going to willingly give up the cars they want, and buy electric as the government demands.
There are rumours that Starmer will announce a relaxation of the ZEV mandate this week, but only its complete abolition will resolve the problem. And it is clear that Miliband will not allow that. Simply tinkering with the scheme will not make the slightest difference.
There is little prospect that EVs will get anywhere next year’s ZEV Mandate of 28%.
SMMT write:
Deliveries of new cars fell by -1.9% in the UK during November with 153,610 joining the road, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). It is the second consecutive monthly decline, and the third decline in four months,1 as the market contracts amid the race to meet tough EV market share targets.
Demand from private buyers, among whom uptake has waned for two years, dropped by -3.3% to 58,496 units, accounting for fewer than four in 10 (38.1%) new registrations. Fleet purchases, which represent the bulk (59.9%) of the market, fell by -1.1% to 91,993 units, while low-volume business demand rose by 5.2% to 3,121 units.
Manufacturers are committed to the mandate’s ambition, but market demand for EVs remains weak and below the levels expected when the regulation was drawn up by the previous government. The industry now expects the UK’s BEV market share to be 18.7% in 2024, although a strong December performance could raise that to 19% – still, however, short of the 22% mandated target for the year.
This year’s growth cements Britain as Europe’s second biggest new BEV market by volume and closing the gap on leader Germany. It reflects long-term manufacturer investment in new models, with more than 130 zero emission choices now available – up more than 42% on a year ago4 – on which the sector is offering record discounts. While this is providing some success, the scale of discounting, worth some £4 billion across 2024, is unsustainable and poses a risk to future consumer choice and UK economic growth.5 With the right, responsive market regulation, however, the UK could hold a commanding position as an exemplar global market for a rapid zero emission transition.
The SMMT still have their head in the sand, maintaining that more subsidies from government will solve the problem.
As well as the £4 billion hit on discounting, which equates to £12000 per car, the motor industry is also suffering from the reduction in ICE cars forced on them by the mandates, which is evidenced by the drop in private sales, which have fallen by 71K on YTD:
As we know, EV sales to private buyers are rock bottom, so that reduction is the main reason why petrol/diesel sales have fallen this year.
Market share of EVs is up 2.4% year-on-year, so at this rate they might reach 21% next year, as long as discounting is continued. But the target of 28% is pie in the sky.
At the end of November, EV registrations were 60,000 short of target. At £15000 a go, this will potentially cost the industry £900 million.
Carmakers can carry forward shortfalls, but that would be a mug’s game. If they cannot hit this year’s target, they certainly won’t hit next year’s. There are other minor exemptions too, but these will make little difference.
And they can buy surplus allowances from other manufacturers. But remember that 60,000 is the net shortage. If there are, say, 20,000 surplus allowances available in the market, there will be a gross shortage of 80,000 amongst the rest.
The above, which still appears on their website, confirmed their original plan to make Vivaro electric vans at Luton, alongside diesel vans.
So what has changed?
According to SMMT data, 5367 electric Vauxhall vans were registered in the year to June 2024. Stellantis also say they sold 34632 vans in total in the UK. Although the periods overlap, this would imply an electric ratio of about 15%, well above this year’s LEV mandate of 10%:
It would appear that Vauxhall don’t believe they can hit these targets going forward, and it is easy to see why. Across the market as a whole, electric vans have only penetrated 5.6% this year, even less than last:
And why, other than a few niche applications, would any business buy one?
The Vivaro Diesel as an OTR price of £35010, but the electric is priced at £51715.
Most vans tend to do high mileage, so after three or four years, the electric will be worthless on the secondhand market, unlike the diesel which will probably be worth a grand or two:
The electric has a claimed range of 215 miles, but in the real world, with a full load, will probably struggle to do 100 miles. This immediately rules it out for many businesses. I know our van at work would occasionally do more than that in a day. Its typical run was around South Yorkshire, and that could easily entail at least 70 or 80 miles.
An electric van will simple not have the same productivity as a diesel for most applications. In short, while a diesel might do 100 drops a day, and electric might only manage 50. You would therefore need twice as many vans and drivers!
Then there is the issue of where and how you recharge overnight.
When all things are considered, businesses know what is best for them. And so far they have made it clear that they won’t buy electric.
Which brings us back to Vauxhall.
To meet a target of 46% electric in four years time, they must either sell a lot more electric vans, or sell fewer diesel.
And if they sell fewer diesels, that leaves Luton, which makes all the diesel Vivaros, without enough work to be viable. Ellesmere Port, which only makes electric, will take over Luton’s existing electric van work.
The ultimate irony here is that imports of vans and cars are not subject to the ZEV mandate. So Stellantis can instead push French made Citroen vans into the UK market and avoid fines.
As the Vauxhall blurb notes, they are the only van brand made in the UK. Luton’s departure from the scene will simply open the door to vans like the Ford Transit, which is made in Spain and Turkey.
And I can confidently predict that next year, electric van sales will still be in the doldrums, despite Ed Miliband’s crazed policies.
FOOTNOTE
Ford have a range calculator for the Transit, which reduces range to just 91 miles in cold conditions:
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