Climate Activism In Judicial Drag

If youโ€™d asked me last week to imagine the worldโ€™s โ€œhighest courtโ€ declaring climate science settled by judicial fiat, and then threatening the globe with reparations if governments donโ€™t color inside the climate lines, Iโ€™d have poured myself a stiff gin-and-tonic and double-checked the URL.

Judges standing in formal attire inside the International Court of Justice chamber.

From Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

If youโ€™d asked me last week to imagine the worldโ€™s โ€œhighest courtโ€ declaring climate science settled by judicial fiat, and then threatening the globe with reparations if governments donโ€™t color inside the climate lines, Iโ€™d have poured myself a stiff gin-and-tonic and double-checked the URL.

But alas, welcome to 2025, where the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has just handed down an โ€œadvisory opinionโ€ so ambitious, sanctimonious, and scientifically shallow that it reads less like a court ruling and more like the script for a very, very earnest United Nations bake sale. Their own summary of their latest lunacy is here.

Letโ€™s set the table. The ICJ was asked by true-green climate activists to weigh in on whether countries thatโ€”brace yourselfโ€”arenโ€™t โ€œprotecting the climateโ€, whatever that might mean, are guilty of internationally wrongful conduct.

Not just frowned upon. Not just eligible for a stern talking-to.

Nope: guilty. Legally at fault. Reparations, anyone?

Below is a view of the self-important, arrogant, pompous bench-warmers who think they rule both the world and your pocketbook and are the final arbiters of scientific truth.

A panel of judges seated in a courtroom at the International Court of Justice, with wooden panels and the UN emblem in the background.

And if you thought for a second that their ruling was confined to immediate, actual demonstrable harm, allow me to introduce you to the courtโ€™s new climate doctrine: โ€œThe environment is the foundation for all human rights.โ€

Human rights are based on the environment? I mean, who knew? Clearly, the authors of the US Declaration of Independence were blissfully ignorant of that claim when they said:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

But nooo โ€ฆ apparently, the right to a โ€œclean, healthy, and sustainable environmentโ€ is not just a good aspiration, but a precondition and foundation for everything from shelter to the Declaration of Independence.

In these several dozen pages of turgid judicial prose, the court repeatedly assures us that the science is both โ€œunequivocalโ€ and โ€œconsensual.โ€ Take a broom and sweep aside the actual, messy debates among climatologists, physicists, statisticians, and economists. Why bother with IPCCโ€™s footnotes and caveats, uncertainty ranges, or the fact that roughly half the scientific worldโ€™s population is busy fighting over causal attributions, model reliability, emission pathways, and feedbacks? The ICJ can clear all that up with a wave of the bench.

Never mind that many credentialed scientistsโ€”yes, those with tenure, lab coats, and neural networksโ€”keep pointing out flaws in everything from the accuracy of climate models to the lack of robust evidence connecting certain weather events directly to COโ‚‚ emissions.

Those tedious debates? Airbrushed away, replaced by a judicially anointed TRUTH, enforceable anywhere a lawyer can file papers and find a sympathetic press release.

The court then leaps from this supposedly airtight science to the conclusion that all countries are not just morally but legally required to throttle fossil fuels, pay reparations for โ€œclimate harm,โ€ whatever that might be at any instant, andโ€”hereโ€™s the kickerโ€”restructure their entire economies and energy grids to satisfy the ambitions of the most anxious delegates in the UN General Assembly.

Oh, and itโ€™s not just about emissions within your own border, but across the ether of international commerce, all the way down to how a can of soup is shipped from Kansas to Kazakhstan.

If this strikes you as a rather energetic reading of judicial authority, youโ€™re not alone. The ICJโ€™s ruling doesnโ€™t just interpret treatiesโ€”it rewrites them, pastes new concepts of liability on top, and then wags its finger at every government in creation, basically saying: โ€œComply, or risk being labeled an international outlaw โ€ฆ and subsequently shaken down for damages.โ€

(The good news is that this is an โ€œadvisoryโ€ opinion, not a judicial ruling, and fortunately, any actual power to enforce this is still missing from the courtโ€™s toolbelt. But you can expect a flotilla of lawsuits, climate tribunals, and legal NGOs licking their chops.)

Non-judicial conclusions abound in this ruling. The bench, now apparently staffed with philosophers and prophets, instructs the worldโ€™s engineers and energy analysts that mitigation cannot wait, adaptation is mandatory, andโ€”lest you were planning on retiring quietlyโ€”the only acceptable future is one with emission reductions โ€œof the highest ambition.โ€ You expected law? Foolish you.

You get a political manifesto disguised in judicial robes.

Be clear, though. The danger here isnโ€™t just about climate. Itโ€™s about precedent.

If international courts now claim the right to set social, economic, and technological policy for the entire planet by declaratory fiat, who needs parliaments, governments, scientific panels, orโ€”heaven forbidโ€”public debate?

If some green-hued imaginary version of โ€œthe environmentโ€ is an existential human right, why should courts not do the same for โ€œalgorithmic fairness,โ€ โ€œbiodiversity equity,โ€ โ€œDEIโ€, โ€œclimate justiceโ€ or whatever cause rolls in next with a chorus of law students and a well-produced video appeal?

And donโ€™t kid yourselfโ€”this opinion will ricochet through national courts, insurance companies, and boardrooms, emboldening activists to weaponize every multinational agreement in the book against anyone who doesnโ€™t toe the line. The threat of endless litigation, the economic blackmail inherent in โ€œreparations,โ€ and the specter of legal insecurity will choke innovation, investment, and real-world progress faster than you can say โ€œParis Agreement.โ€

This ruling is a perfect example of why about two-thirds of the global population lives in countries that have flat-out REFUSED to be ruled by these activist lunatics in black robes โ€ฆ including, thankfully, the US. The US withdrew from the ICJโ€™s compulsory jurisdiction in 1986, meaning it is not automatically bound by ICJ judgments. Me, I think we should withdraw from the ICJ entirely and let them play with themselves.

In sum, the ruling isnโ€™t just an overstep. Itโ€™s a pole vault over the judicial fence, landing squarely in the realm of politics, philosophy, and scientific orthodoxy enforced by dubious legal muscle. Weโ€™re now one step closer to a world where the outcome of complex, unsettled questions gets dictated by robe and gavel, not science, reason, public debate, or reality โ€ฆ and that is a very dangerous precedent.

Good luck to us all. My solution?

US out of the UN entirely, including out of the ICJ and every other slimy tentacle of the UN. It is a snake-pit of vipers, totalitarians, anti-Semites, self-important โ€œjuristsโ€, and crazy green activists.

UN out of the US entirely. Move the headquarters to Ouagadougou or someplace where the locals need help, forbid the UN employees from using air conditioning so they can โ€œprotect the climateโ€, and see how many UN fat-cats and parasites living the good life in New York City suddenly quit to โ€œspend more time with their familiesโ€ โ€ฆ

My best to all, keep fighting the good fight,

w.

PSโ€”Yeah, youโ€™ve heard it before. When you comment, quote the exact words youโ€™re discussing, so we can tell what youโ€™re talking about.

Climate Realism Violates International Law? โ€“ The Climate Realism Showย #166

The Heartland Instituteโ€™s Anthony Watts, Sterling Burnett, Linnea Lueken, Jim Lakely, and our special guest Daren Bakst โ€” director of the Center for Energy and Environment at the Competitive Enterprise Institute โ€” will also cover some of the breaking and Crazy Climate News of the Week from around the world.

Image promoting the Climate Realism Show #166, featuring a man holding a badge and two police officers in the background, with text reading 'CLIMATE REALISM NOW A CRIME?' and 'LIVE EVERY FRIDAY AT NOON CT'.

The Heartland Institute

The International Court of Justice at the United Nations this week ruled that failing to take poverty-creating โ€œappropriate action to protect the climate systemโ€ โ€” meaning ending the use of life-giving fossil fuels โ€” could open nations to being hauled before a global tribunal to answer for their crimes. As a trio of climate attorneys wrote in The New York Times, โ€œcontinuing fossil fuel production and use, let alone expanding it, violates the law.โ€ Weโ€™ll see about that.

But this development is just the latest in a long line of legal actions trying to enforce climate communism, even as more and more countries reject it.

The Heartland Instituteโ€™s Anthony Watts, Sterling Burnett, Linnea Lueken, Jim Lakely, and our special guest Daren Bakst โ€” director of the Center for Energy and Environment at the Competitive Enterprise Institute โ€” will also cover some of the breaking and Crazy Climate News of the Week from around the world.

Thanks to Trump, those gasoline cans everyone hates will no longer be mandatory. We now have only three years left to save the planet, apparently. And the legacy media has finally caught up with this program and is reporting that the unscientific โ€œEndangerment Findingโ€ for carbon dioxide is about to be repealed.

Join us LIVE at 1 p.m. ET on YouTube, Rumble, and X โ€” and weโ€™ll answer the questions you leave for our panel in the chat.

ICJ Rules Nations have an Obligation to Mitigate CO2 Emissions

โ€œStates โ€ฆ have additional obligations to take the lead in combating climate change by limiting their greenhouse gas emissions โ€ฆโ€

A smiling judge with wild hair, wearing a black robe, sits at a table in a green-themed courtroom with greenery in the background.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Essay by Eric Worrall

โ€œStates โ€ฆ have additional obligations to take the lead in combating climate change by limiting their greenhouse gas emissions โ€ฆโ€

The press release;

If anyone has the patience, the full 133 page judgement (mostly in English) is available here (backup copy here).

From the advisory opinion press release + judgement;

โ€ฆ

The climate change treaties set forth binding obligations for States parties to ensure the protection of the climate system and other parts of the environment from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These obligations include the following:

(a) States parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have an obligation to adopt measures with a view to contributing to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change;

(b) States parties listed in Annex I to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have additional obligations to take the lead in combating climate change by limiting their greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing their greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs;

(c) States parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have a duty to co-operate with each other in order to achieve the underlying objective of the Convention; (d) States parties to the Kyoto Protocol must comply with applicable provisions of the Protocol;

(e) States parties to the Paris Agreement have an obligation to act with due diligence in taking measures in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities capable of making an adequate contribution to achieving the temperature goal set out in the Agreement;

(f) States parties to the Paris Agreement have an obligation to prepare, communicate and maintain successive and progressive nationally determined contributions which, inter alia, when taken together, are capable of achieving the temperature goal of limiting global warming to 1.5โˆžC above pre-industrial levels;

(g) States parties to the Paris Agreement have an obligation to pursue measures which are capable of achieving the objectives set out in their successive nationally determined contributions; and

(h) States parties to the Paris Agreement have obligations of adaptation and co-operation, including through technology and financial transfers, which must be performed in good faith.

โ€“ Customary international law sets forth obligations for States to ensure the protection of the climate system and other parts of the environment from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These obligations include the following:

(a) States have a duty to prevent significant harm to the environment by acting with due diligence and to use all means at their disposal to prevent activities carried out within their jurisdiction or control from causing significant harm to the climate system and other parts of the environment, in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities;

(b) States have a duty to co-operate with each other in good faith to prevent significant harm to the climate system and other parts of the environment, which requires sustained and continuous forms of co-operation by States when taking measures to prevent such harm.

โ€ฆRead more: Same link as above

Despite the court claiming the judgement is advisory, the body of the judgement appears to claim that under the UN charter all members of the UN including the USA have an obligation to respect this ICJ judgement, due to customary respect for a rules the USA has not necessarily explicitly embraced.

b) Duty to co-operate for the protection of the environment 140.ย The duty to co-operate lies at the core of the Charter of the United Nations. Article 1 of the Charter commits States โ€œ[t]o achieve international co-operation in solving international problems of an economic, social, cultural, or humanitarian characterรธ. This obligation has been spelled out in the foundational โ€œDeclaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations (General Assembly resolution 2625 (XXV) of 24 October 1970) (hereinafter the โ€œDeclaration on Friendly Relations).ย The Court has held that โ€œthe adoption by States of this text affords an indication of their opinio juris as to customary international law (Military and Paramilitary Activities in and against Nicaragua (Nicaragua v. United States of America), Merits, Judgment, I.C.J. Reports 1986, p. 101, para. 191).ย That observation also applies to the duty to co-operate in so far as it finds expression in many binding and non-binding instruments relating specifically to the environment. The duty to co-operate is a central obligation under the climate change treaties and other environmental treaties, as discussed below (see paragraphs 214-218 and 260-267). Other examples include Principle 24 of the Stockholm Declaration and Principle 7 of the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (hereinafter the โ€œRio Declarationโ€), which both recognize co-operation as an essential element in the protection of the environment. In view of the related practice of States,ย the Court considers that the duty of States to co-operate for the protection of the environment is a rule whose customary character has been establishedย (see Climate Change, Advisory Opinion, ITLOS Reports 2024, p. 110, para. 296; MOX Plant (Ireland v. United Kingdom), Provisional Measures, Order of 3 December 2001, ITLOS Reports 2001, p. 110, para. 82).

Read more:ย 

https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/187/187-20250723-adv-01-00-en.pdf

Iโ€™m not a legal expert, but the argument that customary law with respect to international relations carries weight appears to be weak, though not necessarily weak enough to have it immediately dismissed without lots of time and money.

The US Senate did ratify the UN Charter in 1945, though arguably the UN has since granted itself powers which were not part of the original charter. I donโ€™t recall the senate ever ratifying the USAโ€™s alleged climate obligations under that 1945 charter. The claim the USA has a climate obligation under a charter ratified by the US Senate long before the UN got involved in the climate game seems a stretch.

Perhaps the โ€œcustomary characterโ€ argument that states have a duty of compliance is a reference to the acquiescence of previous US administrations to unratified UN extensions of authority. If this is correct, that would make the ICJ advisory an assertion that the USA should shut up and do what they are told.

Obviously this ICJ ruling provides a lot of scope for mischief by NGOs and state governors who disagree with President Trumpโ€™s climate policies. I can see this ICJ ruling making a lot of lawyers rich.

Interestingly there has been a recent bump in Lithium prices, from around $8.50 / lb in late June to around $10 / lb today, though the explanations Iโ€™ve read claim this is due to a global cleardown of excess inventory rather than speculation the ICJ ruling might boost demand for EVs.

Twice as Many People Work in Environment โ€˜Charitiesโ€™ Than in Wind Power Generation: ONS Report Reveals Shocking Truth About UKโ€™s โ€˜Green Jobsโ€™

British Government Minister Michael Shanks, Under Secretary at Mad Milibandโ€™s Net Zero Energy Department, recently claimed that abandoning Net Zero is an anti-growth ideology that will cost nearly a million jobs. Like most Net Zero predictions, the million jobs is a through-the-looking-glass fantasy.

Four workers in safety gear observing offshore wind turbines from a platform.

From The Daily Sceptic

Byย Chris Morrison

British Government Minister Michael Shanks, Under Secretary at Mad Milibandโ€™s Net Zero Energy Department, recently claimed that abandoning Net Zero is an anti-growth ideology that will cost nearly a million jobs. Like most Net Zero predictions, the million jobs is a through-the-looking-glass fantasy. Back on Planet Reality, the latest โ€˜Green Jobsโ€™ survey from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has suggested an annual rise of 8% in 2023 to 690,900. As usual, the survey reveals how few so-called green jobs are being created in the real economy. Desperation rules the day with the ONS job jugglers lumping into the โ€˜green jobsโ€™ bucket waste disposal, environment charity agitprop, repairing home appliances and controlling forest fires.

The survey was released a few days ago but it does not appear to have been widely promoted by interested parties including the Labour Government. Perhaps this is not surprising since the Government is embarking on a planned de-industrialisation of the British hydrocarbon economy. Allied to out-of-control state spending for fantasy projects such as open borders and Net Zero, the hard-Left Government has made steady progress in its first year with the loss of 135,000 jobs. Higher employment taxes and more meddlesome labour restrictions promise further progress on this front in the coming years. Itโ€™s possible that piddling increases in the green jobs total โ€“ just 2.7% of total employment โ€“ were not deemed worthwhile highlighting since doing so might draw attention to actual job destruction in the real economy. Best just to feed the โ€˜million jobโ€™ make-believe out to the believe-anything mainstream media.

Bar chart showing full-time equivalent (FTE) employment in green industries in the UK from 2015 to 2023, with categories including waste, energy efficient products, renewable energy, repairs, environmental charities, and others.

The latest ONS report lays bare the shockingly small number of genuinely green jobs that are currently present in the British economy. The chart above highlights the miniscule growth since figures began in 2015. The largest group titled โ€œwasteโ€ is a sleight of hand โ€“ dustmen have now been re-badged as recycling and waste disposal operatives โ€“ while โ€œrepairsโ€ are hardly a new economic activity and โ€œenvironmental charitiesโ€ is a euphemism for Green Blob billionaire-funded agitprop.

But the really shocking news is contained in a downloadable database that identifies the jobs total in numerous industries. According to the ONS, offshore wind employs only 16,400 people, while the onshore variety accounts for just 5,900. Despite all the supposed activity of late โ€“ and the vast wind subsidies loaded onto British consumers โ€“ it would not appear to be much of an improvement on the 10,600 employed in 2015. It is not as if Miliband and his governing crew have not been told that the negligible number of jobs being created by wind farms has not gone unnoticed. Gary Smith, the boss of the third largest trade union, GMB, has warned  that plans to decarbonise the energy network by 2030 will cost up to one million jobs, decimate working communities and push up bills for the poorest. He did observe some employment created by offshore wind farms, noting: โ€œItโ€™s usually a man in a rowing boat, sweeping up the dead birds.โ€

Great hope is being placed in some quarters on hydrogen as a future major energy source, but at the moment the real world provides just 2,100 employment opportunities, down from 3,900 in 2015 โ€“ a back to the future moment for this unrealistic fuel suggestion. Miliband has recently committed ยฃ22 billion of our money to carbon capture and storage and he must be hoping that this pointless activity will move its employment dial from its current level of 500. Given how many car factories have recently closed and the enormous number of general transport jobs created in the past, you might wish that โ€œlow carbon transportโ€ would be providing more than 38,500 jobs. Carry on wishing is the message here. Not so with the Green Blob charities employing 45,200 virtuous middle class elitists, or the 19,400 public sector employees pay-rolled to destroy our economic lifestyle in โ€œmanagerial activities of government bodiesโ€.

Another coming technology, battery storage, employs just 6,200 people, which might seem a little high since only minute amounts of energy can realistically be stored โ€“ about three minutes worth if we are lucky when the breezes and the sunbeams pack up. Environmental consultancy (17,700) and environmental related education (2,500) โ€“ in other words agitprop โ€“ look better employment prospects going forward. Since this is mostly parasitical activity drawing resources away from the productive economy, expect more job losses in the wealth-creating sectors โ€“ but hey, who cares, we are saving the planet.

With so-called green charities employing more people than the low carbon transport sector, a situation that has not changed for eight years, itโ€™s obvious that the prospects for green jobs is dire in the UK. Jobs making electric cars, windmills and solar panels are mostly occurring elsewhere. The UK consumer gains little economic benefit, while its ideology-blinded Government throws billions at what are mostly second-rate, unwanted and unreliable technologies. The ONS hides this dire situation by claiming 158,400 jobs in waste disposal, 145,800 in energy efficient products (new windows and lightbulbs) and 11,900 in forest management. In fact, the ONS report shows only too clearly that there are barely 150,000 new jobs in the UK green economy. Meanwhile, the high energy prices and money wasted over Net Zero is likely to lead to job losses on an unimaginable and tragic scale.

Chris Morrison is the Environment Editor of the Daily Sceptic. Follow him on X.

New Offshore Wind Strike Prices More Than Double Cost Of Gasย Power

It destroys once and for all the myth that renewables are cheaper than gas.

Stormy sea with offshore wind turbines amidst dark clouds and rain.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

DSENZ has just published the Administrative Strike Prices for the next round of Contracts for Difference, AR7:

It destroys once and for all the myth that renewables are cheaper than gas. The price for offshore wind, for example, is set at ยฃ113/MWh, at 2024 prices. But we can already add 3% to that to bring it into current prices โ€“ so thatโ€™s around ยฃ116/MWh.

These prices are more than 11% higher than last yearโ€™s auction round.

It may be the case that the prices bid will come in slightly lower than these ASPs, which are the maximum on offer. But they inevitably be much higher than the cost of gas power.

Natural gas is currently trading at 78p/therm. Assuming fuel efficiency of 55%, fuel cost for a CCGT would work out at around ยฃ49/MWh. We are already paying CCGTs to provide standby, so this covers all the other overhead and running costs.

Miliband needs another 25 GW of offshore wind power. At these prices, that will add ยฃ6 billion a year to the cost of electricity.

And this, of course, does not account for all the other indirect costs of intermittent renewables, such as grid balancing, grid upgrades and standby cover.

Worse still, Miliband has decided to extend the CfD contracts from 15 to 20 years โ€“ in short, we will be locking in these high prices for even longer.

Onshore and solar power are little better, still both costlier than gas power. As for floating offshore wind at ยฃ271/MWh, one can only conclude that Mad Miliband is intent on bankrupting the country.

Department of Energy Terminates Taxpayer-Funded Financial Assistance for Grain Belt Express

The Department of Energy today announced the Loan Programs Office has terminated its conditional commitment for the Grain Belt Express Phase 1 project.

Image showing a rural road lined with tall power lines, featuring the text 'Grain Belt Express' in bold red letters.

From Watts Up With That?

By TheEnergy.gov

The Department of Energy today announced the Loan Programs Office has terminated its conditional commitment for the Grain Belt Express Phase 1 project.

Energy.gov

WASHINGTONโ€” The Department of Energy (DOE) today announced the Loan Programs Office (LPO) has terminated its conditional commitment for the Grain Belt Express Phase 1 project, a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission line intended to connect wind and solar capacity across Kansas and Missouri. The conditional commitment, which would have provided a taxpayer-funded loan guarantee of up to $4.9 billion dollars, was issued by the Biden administration in November 2024 โ€“ one of many conditional commitments that were rushed out the door in the final days of the Biden administration.

After a thorough review of the projectโ€™s financials, DOE found that the conditions necessary to issue the guarantee are unlikely to be met and it is not critical for the federal government to have a role in supporting this project. To ensure more responsible stewardship of taxpayer resources, DOE has terminated its conditional commitment.

DOE is conducting a review of every applicant and borrower โ€“ including the nearly $100 billion in closed loans and conditional commitments LPO made between Election Day 2024 to Inauguration Day 2025 โ€“ to ensure every single taxpayer dollar is being used to advance the best interest of the American people. This ongoing review positions LPO to move forward with a lower risk tolerance in lending practices and an uncompromising focus on expanding access to affordable, reliable and secure energy for the American people.

DOE remains focused on advancing projects that expand American energy dominance and deliver on President Trumpโ€™s commitment to lower energy prices for the American people.

###

ICJ Issues Biased Advice on Climate Change

In sum, the World Court may have been perceived as misunderstanding the Paris Agreementโ€™s legal status because the Agreement is simultaneously aย legally binding treaty in formย withย procedural and transparency obligations, yet it remainsย politically flexible, non-punitive, and ambiguous regarding enforcement or specific outcome obligations.

A judge wearing a green robe and hat sits smiling in a courtroom setting with blurred figures in the background.

From Science Matters

Byย Ron Clutz

A diverse group of protesters holding signs advocating for climate justice and human rights, with a large banner reading 'OUR SURVIVAL IS...' in the foreground. A billboard in the background displays the message 'WE ARE WATCHING!'.
Activists hoping the opinion from the ICJโ€™s judges will have far-reaching legal consequences in the fight against climate change Image: Peter Dejong/AP Photo/picture alliance

The media is rampant today with headlines like these:

World Court says countries are legally obligated to curb emissions, protect climate, UN News

Worldโ€™s top court says major polluters may need to pay reparations for climate harm, CNN

UNโ€™s top court says failing to protect planet from climate change could violate international law, CBC

Top UN court says countries can sue each other over climate change, BBC

Top U.N. Court Says Countries Must Act on Climate Change, New York Times

Etc., Etc., Etc.

I asked perplexity.ai: (bolds in answer supplied by perplexity)

Question: How did the ICJ address scientists disputing IPCC reports like Clintel in its climate advice?

Answer: The International Court of Justice (ICJ), in its advisory proceedings on climate change, did not address or give consideration to scientists or groupsโ€”such as Clintelโ€”who dispute the findings of the IPCC. Instead, the ICJ relied heavily and explicitly on the IPCC as the authoritative source on climate science throughout the process.

Key points from the available evidence:

  • The ICJ held aย private meeting with IPCC scientistsย just before hearings began, reflecting the Courtโ€™s view of the IPCC as the โ€œscientific pillarโ€ of the climate change regime1.
  • This meeting was not part of the formal, public hearings and did not include scientists who dissent from the IPCCโ€”states and organizations participating in the advisory proceedings hadย no opportunity to question or respond to IPCC scientists1.
  • The process was criticized for lacking transparency and procedural fairness precisely because itย favored a single scientific perspectiveย (the IPCCโ€™s), with no indication that alternative scientific viewpoints were admitted or reviewed1.
  • Theย UN General Assemblyโ€™s request for the advisory opinion itself referenced the โ€œutmost concern [for] the scientific consensus expressedโ€ in the IPCC reports, reinforcing the Courtโ€™s mandate to treat the IPCCโ€™s findings as the foundation for its analysis13.
  • Available commentaries and summaries of the ICJ process doย not mention any engagement with scientists or organizations disputing IPCC conclusions, nor do they report that groups like Clintel were referenced or invited as experts13.
  • While the ICJ has, in rare past cases, consulted technical experts informally, in this climate case it only announced consultation with IPCC figures, reinforcing the exclusion of dissident scientific voices19.

In summary, the ICJโ€™s approach gave exclusive scientific authority to the IPCC and provided no forum, reference, or weight to scientists disputing its reports, such as those from Clintel13. The Court did not discuss or acknowledge the existence of such scientific disagreement in its process, instead treating the IPCCโ€™s consensus as fact. This approach has been criticized for its lack of transparency and its failure to incorporate procedural safeguards for alternative scientific views19.

Followup Question: Why might the World Court have misunderstood the legal status of the Paris Accord?

Answer: The World Court might have appeared to misunderstand or at least oversimplify the legal status of the Paris Agreement because the Agreementโ€™s nature is complex and somewhat ambiguous under international law, blending legally binding procedural obligations with politically framed, flexible commitments that lack sharp enforcement mechanisms.

Key reasons explaining why the Court could be seen as misunderstanding or glossing over these complexities include:

  • Legal Flexibility and Lack of Enforcement:ย The Paris Agreement is a treaty with binding procedural obligations butย lacks strong accountability measures, sanctions, or punitive mechanisms for non-compliance1.ย Articles 13 and 15 establish monitoring and compliance mechanisms that are explicitly โ€œnon-intrusiveโ€ and โ€œnon-punitive,โ€ reflecting the Agreementโ€™s flexible, voluntary essence rather than strict legal constraints on outcome1.ย Courts may struggle to treat such a hybrid treaty as fully binding in the traditional sense.
  • Ambiguity over Obligation Types:ย The Paris Agreement distinguishes betweenย โ€œobligations of conductโ€ (procedural duties)ย versusย โ€œobligations of resultโ€ (achieving emission cuts). It requires parties to submit NDCs and report on implementation but does not legally bind States to achieve specific emission targets or outcomes34.ย This ambiguity can lead to varying interpretations of the Agreementโ€™s binding force.
  • Differing State Practices and Interpretations:ย There remainsย disagreement among states and expertsย about whether the Paris Agreement creates firm legal obligations to prevent climate change or is largely aspirational with voluntary commitments6.ย Some states perceive it as political guidance rather than a hard treaty, influencing how international bodies perceive its weight.
  • Constraints of International Litigation and Court Jurisdiction:ย International courts like the ICJ have limited jurisdiction and cannot enforce treaty provisions on states unwilling to submit to their authority1.ย This constrains how formally the Court can treat the Agreementโ€™s legal status, especially when major emitters are outside its compulsory jurisdiction16.ย The Courtโ€™s advisory role means it clarifies law based on existing commitments but cannot enforce or create new obligations.
  • Interaction with Customary International Law:ย Some legal scholarship suggests that customary international lawโ€”independent but related to treaty lawโ€”may impose broader climate duties on states, which complicates whether the Court grounds its decisions on the Paris Agreement alone or on evolving international legal norms1.

In sum, the World Court may have been perceived as misunderstanding the Paris Agreementโ€™s legal status because the Agreement is simultaneously a legally binding treaty in form with procedural and transparency obligations, yet it remains politically flexible, non-punitive, and ambiguous regarding enforcement or specific outcome obligations. This hybrid nature poses challenges for courts in characterizing it strictly as a binding treaty imposing strong legal duties, thus potentially giving the appearance of oversimplification or misunderstanding in the Courtโ€™s advice.

Therefore, the Courtโ€™s approach likely reflects the difficulty of interpreting a treaty designed to maximize participation through flexibility rather than strong binding commitments, rather than a simple misunderstanding of the Paris Agreementโ€™s status 1346.

My Summary

Despite the courtroom venue and judges participating in rendering an opinion, this was a political, not a legal process. A court of law seeks truth through an adversarial process whereby parties advocate for two or more viewpoints on the matter at hand, including facts and logic of the arguments.  Here there was no hearing and weighing of differing evidence and perspectives, just a preconceived partisan political declaration.

Political cartoon depicting a coal miner hanging from a tree branch, expressing a plea for a fair trial, while two other figures on horseback engage in a conversation, highlighting themes of injustice and environmental concerns.
A large boulder blocking a deserted road, with the text 'Convince Voters Not Judges' prominently displayed.

CLAIM: Heatwaves to increase in frequency, duration under global warming

When I saw this press release from Portland State University, I knew I would not have to look far to spot the bias and/or error. First, itโ€™s a climate model, second, itโ€™s the WORST climate model, CMIP6 -Anthony

From Watts Up With That?

By Anthony Watts

When I saw this press release from Portland State University, I knew I would not have to look far to spot the bias and/or error. First, itโ€™s a climate model, second, itโ€™s the WORST climate model, CMIP6 -Anthony

Via Eurekalert:
As the climate becomes warmer on average, it makes intuitive sense that we will see more hot days and weโ€™ve had predictions of this for some time. However, the duration of heatwaves โ€” how many days in a row exceed a temperature that is unusually hot for a given region โ€” can be very important for impacts on humans, livestock and ecosystems. Predicting how these durations will change under a long-term warming trend is more challenging because day-to-day temperatures are correlated โ€” tomorrowโ€™s temperatures have a dependence on todayโ€™s temperature.

This study takes this effect into account, along with the warming seen in current and historical observations and projected for the future by climate models for a wide range of land regions. Not only do the heatwave durations increase, but each additional increment of warming causes a larger increase in the typical length of long heat waves. In other words, if the next decade brings as much large-scale warming as a previous decade, the additional increase in heatwave durations would be even larger than weโ€™ve experienced so far.

Abstract

Heatwaves are expected to both increase in frequency and duration under global warming. The probability distributions of heatwave durations are shaped by day-to-day correlations in temperature and so cannot be simply inferred from changes in the probabilities of daily temperature extremes. Here we show from statistical analysis of global historical and projected temperature data that changes in long-duration heatwaves increase nonlinearly with temperature. Specifically, from analysis informed by theory for autocorrelated fluctuations applied to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model simulations, we find that the nonlinearity results in acceleration of the rate increase with warming; that is, each increment of regional time-averaged warming increases the characteristic duration scale of long heatwaves more than the previous increment. We show that the curve for this acceleration can be approximately collapsed onto a single dependence across regions by normalizing by local temperature variability. Projections of future change can thus be compared to observations of recent change over part of their range, which supports the near-future-projected acceleration. We also find that the longest, most uncommon heatwaves for a given region have the greatest increase in likelihood, yielding a compounding source of nonlinear impacts.

Journal Nature Geoscience

DOI/Link: 10.1038/s41561-025-01737-w 

BBC Wants Poor Countries To Sue Us For Making Them Betterย Off

It is now time to shut down the BBC, who now seem to hate the Britain so much.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Philip Bratby

A landmark decision by a top UN court has cleared the way for countries to sue each other over climate change, including over historic emissions of planet-warming gases.

But the judge at the International Court of Justice in the Hague, Netherlands on Wednesday said that untangling who caused which part of climate change could be difficult.

The ruling is non-binding but legal experts say it could have wide-ranging consequences.

It will be seen as a victory for countries that are very vulnerable to climate change, who came to court after feeling frustrated about lack of global progress in tackling the problem.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce379k4v3pwo

It is now time to shut down the BBC, who now seem to hate the Britain so much.

There is no such thing as a โ€œUN Courtโ€, in legal terms at least. And if some tin pot country dares to sue us, we should tell them to get lost. Who are they going to send round to collect their damages? The far-left moron, Justin Rowlatt maybe?

Meanwhile, maybe the BBC might care to abandon fossil fuels completely, if they are really so damaging to those poorer countries. And that goes for the left-wing idiots who wrote this ridiculous story โ€“ Esme Stallard and Georgina Rannard.

I am sure they are enjoying a lovely lifestyle, thanks to the very fossil fuels they demonise.

COPocalypse Now

The next UN Climate Change Conference,ย COP30,ย will be held in Belรฉm, Brazil, fromย November 10-21, 2025. Near as I can tell, โ€œCOPโ€ stands for โ€œConference of Party-goersโ€, because most of what goes on at these quackathons is eating and drinking. And asking for money. Hereโ€™s Josh on the subjectโ€”previous COP, same story.

From Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

The next UN Climate Change Conference, COP30, will be held in Belรฉm, Brazil, from November 10-21, 2025. Near as I can tell, โ€œCOPโ€ stands for โ€œConference of Party-goersโ€, because most of what goes on at these quackathons is eating and drinking. And asking for money. Hereโ€™s Josh on the subjectโ€”previous COP, same story.

Each country was required to submit its plan for how it will fight the eeevil CO2, called an โ€œNDCโ€ for โ€œNationally Determined Contributionโ€, by February 25th.

I got to wondering how many of the 197 countries that belong to the United Nations have submitted updated national climate plans to the UN so far. Turns out itโ€™s only about 8-10% depending on how you count โ€ฆ and tragically, one of them is from the US. I guess Biden holdovers slipped it out the door when Trump folks werenโ€™t watching, or maybe before the inauguration.

So I went and got the document from the link.

Itโ€™s 35 pages of the usual doublespeak from some committee of pluted government bloatocrats. Being unwilling to hack my way through the detritus of govern-mental illness, to get an overview I used the technique I described in Learning With The Dumbest Genius Librarian. Details are in the appendix. After getting Level 1 data and then typing โ€œmoreโ€, I get this:


Extended Factual Overview: U.S. 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

Official Target

  • The United Statesโ€™ 2035 NDC aims for an economy-wide reduction of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions byย 61โ€“66% below 2005 levels by 2035.
  • This target covers all GHG sectors and aligns with the nationโ€™s net-zero goal for 2050.

Sectoral Contributions

Power/Electricity:

  • Achieveย 100% clean electricity by 2035, including phase-out of unabated coal plants by 2030 and strengthened regulations on gas plants.
  • This requires a 2โ€“4x increase in renewable capacity additions and a 73โ€“100% reduction in electricity generation from fossil fuels.

Transportation:

  • Targetย 83โ€“100% share of electric vehicles in new car salesย by 2035.
  • Enforce advanced emissions and efficiency standards for all vehicle categories, including freight and aviation.

Industry:

  • Promote widespread adoption of low-carbon manufacturing, carbon capture, and methane reductions, especially in oil, gas, and waste sectors.
  • Methane emissions reductions of at leastย 35% from 2005 by 2035ย are anticipated, with possible higher reductions through intensified measures.

Buildings:

  • Strengthen energy codes, promote electrification, and improve efficiency standards for equipment and appliances.

Agriculture and Land Use:

  • Enhance practices for soil carbon sequestration, reduce agricultural methane, and increase sustainable land management.

Federal and Subnational Roles

  • Success depends on integrated efforts byย federal, state, Tribal, and local governments, alongside businesses and civil society.
  • Landmarks such as theย Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)ย andย Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL)ย form the backbone of federal investments. These are complemented by state policies and non-federal actions, critical for bridging the gap toward the NDC target.

Modeling and Ambition

Scientific Pathways and Analysis:

  • Multi-model studies show that only expansive new policies and cross-sector action will deliver a 56โ€“67% GHG reduction by 2035; current policies alone result in a 34โ€“44% cut.
  • Enhanced ambition scenarios require a national average annual decarbonization rate ofย 3.7%ย from 2020โ€“2035, up from 2.2% under current laws.

Methane and Non-COโ‚‚ Gases:

  • Methane is addressed via fees and standards in oil, gas, coal, landfill, and agriculture, aiming up to aย 48% reduction by 2035ย in some scenarios.

Climate Justice and Equity

  • The NDC emphasizes equity, ensuring that emissions-reduction strategies deliver benefits to vulnerable, Indigenous, and low-income populations.
  • Justice-focused approaches are embedded through consultation and implementation at all levels, aiming to promote a just and inclusive transition.

Yeah, right. Letโ€™s look at a few of those.


  • The United Statesโ€™ 2035 NDC aims for an economy-wide reduction of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions byย 61โ€“66% below 2005 levels by 2035.
  • This target covers all GHG sectors and aligns with the nationโ€™s net-zero goal for 2050.

Here are US CO2 emissions by year, along with the NDC goals.

Figure 1. US CO2 emissions by year. Red lines show the path to the 2035 goal (62.5% percent of the 2005 emissions, and the 2050 goal (zero). Red dotted line goes from 2005 to 2023, representing an average decrease of -69 megatonnes per year. To achieve the 2035 goal requires an average annual decrease of -117 megatonnes per year, and to achieve the 2050 goal requires -280 megatonnes per year.

tโ€™s a wonderful fantasy, but totally unachievable. The gains since the peak have been because of the replacement of coal by gas, but much of that has already occurred. At present, only about a quarter of CO2 emissions come from electricity, so even if we could bring that to zero, how will we cut the other three-quarters of the emissions?

Then we have:


Power/Electricity:

  • Achieveย 100% clean electricity by 2035, including phase-out of unabated coal plants by 2030 and strengthened regulations on gas plants.
  • This requires a 2โ€“4x increase in renewable capacity additions and a 73โ€“100% reduction in electricity generation from fossil fuels.

Yeah, right. Many of the best solar and wind sites are in use. After hundreds of billions in subsidies over decades, solar plus wind provide only 17% of US power. And because they are intermittent, weโ€™ll need fossil-powered backup.

Next, their numbers make no sense. Given the limitations of batteries, to get to 100% clean energy, fossil use must go to zero. But they say it could drop by just 73% and weโ€™d be able to get to clean energy โ€ฆ how?

And further on, we see:


Transportation:

  • Targetย 83โ€“100% share of electric vehicles in new car salesย by 2035.
  • Enforce advanced emissions and efficiency standards for all vehicle categories, including freight and aviation.

Yeah, sure. In 2024, after years of hype and billions in subsidies, EVs are 1.6% of the cars on the US highways. And even at that low level, itโ€™s putting a strain on the grid. If they get to be a large percentage of cars on the road, the grid will crumble โ€ฆ and thatโ€™s not even including the huge and growing electricity need for AI.

Thereโ€™s more, but Iโ€™ll stop there. My brain canโ€™t take the bogus claims of โ€œCLIMATE EQUITYโ€. I can hear my cranial gears stripping when I start thinking about it. The whole document is a farrago of lies, deceptions, fantasies, and green dreams.

However, there is some very good news.

First, President Trump has pulled the US out of the climate grift entirely, and second, this is a non-binding agreement. Every nation just puts in ridiculous goals and gets to feel all virtuous.

And hopefully, before the 25th Conference of the Party-goers, this document will be withdrawn.

Onwards, weโ€™re gaining ground,

w.

PSโ€”Here it is again. When you comment, please quote the exact words you are discussing. If you canโ€™t figure out why Iโ€™m asking this โ€ฆ think harder.

PPSโ€”To replicate and extend my analysis, copy everything below the separator line below, paste it into your favorite AI (I use perplexity.ai), and hit enter. It lets you get a large overview and then dig in to obscure corners.


{https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-12/United%20States%202035%20NDC.pdf}= Topic of Study

1. Input Stage: Topic Declaration

  • Insert your topic of interest between the curly braces above.
  • From this point forward, your topic will be referred to as โ€œMโ€.
  • All output will be strictly factual, source-verified information related to M.

2. Core Operating Principles

A. Role Definition

  • You are an independent researcher gathering information for article creation.
  • I am strictly your research assistant.
  • My only function is to deliver comprehensive, factual, and verifiable information on M.
  • I do not advise, hypothesize, interpret, or suggest presentation formats regarding M.

B. Boundaries: What I Will Not Do

  • I will not recommend articles or presentation formats for M.
  • I will not provide advice, tips, or writing guidance on M.
  • I will not summarize or interpret M unless quoting or directly citing a primary source.
  • I will only deliver source-backed facts about M.

C. Data Standards & Source Policy

  • All factual claims will be linked to a directly traceable, verified primary source.
  • Examples: peer-reviewed journals, official government/public research databases, established scientific institutions.
  • No data from AI models, platforms without access to the original source, or unverifiable summaries will be used.
  • All links will be embedded as live hyperlinks at the end of the statement.
  • Citations are placed immediately after the corresponding statement, never in a collective footnote or end-of-document format.
  • Each factual claim must be verifiable through the actual URL of the cited source.
  • If a claim cannot be verified by primary evidence, it will be omittedโ€”with the limitation explicitly stated and speculation excluded.

D. Quality Control

  • Before providing any answer, I perform a self-audit:
  • If any component of my response lacks direct traceability to a verified source, it is flagged or excluded.
  • I do not extrapolate, synthesize, or โ€œguessโ€ based on pattern recognition or indirect evidence.
  • If evidence is unavailable or conflicting, this will be clearly stated.

3. Output System: Choose Your Desired Response Level

  • After you submit your topic, you will receive the following prompt:
  • โ€œWhich output do you need?โ€
  • Type โ€œ1โ€ for:โ€ƒBasic Information
  • Overview-level summary about the study of M.
  • Type โ€œ2โ€ for:โ€ƒSpecialized Information
  • In-depth technical knowledge categorized by topics.
  • You may also type โ€œmoreโ€ at any level to request extended output.

Output 1 โ€“ Basic Information on M

  • Goal: Provide a foundational understanding of M.
  • Includes:
  • Introduction to the field
  • General facts
  • High-level points of importance
  • Navigation:
    • Type โ€œ2โ€ at any point to move to Specialized Information.
    • Type โ€œmoreโ€ to expand the Basic Information.

Output 2 โ€“ Specialized Information on M

  • Goal: Access deep, subject-specific, and technical content on M.
  • Process & Features:
  • You receive a numbered Table of Contents listing specialized topics related to M.
  • Each of the specialized topics will be followed by 3 numbered subtopics
  • You select a topic by typing โ€œoption Xโ€ where X is the number of the item.
  • I provide fully-sourced, comprehensive information on that topic.
  • Expandable Topic Navigation:
    • To explore deeper levels:
    • Type โ€œtopics โ€ฆ (name of topic)โ€ โ€” and I will return all subtopics of that topic.
    • This structure supports infinite hierarchy:
    • Primary topics โ†’ Secondary topics โ†’ Tertiary topics โ€ฆ and so on.
    • At any level, typing โ€œmoreโ€ fetches additional topics at that same level.
    • At any time, type โ€œ1โ€ to return to Basic Information.

Citation Enforcement:

  • Every statement is accompanied by a live citation to its primary source in the -style format.
  • No aggregation of sources at the end. Each claim stands alone with its citation.
  • If a traceable, authoritative source is not available for a datum, I will not include the datum.

4. Checking and double-checking. Before delivering any answer, double-check that each citation and reference actually exists and is valid.

5. Workflow Summary

  • Enter your topic between the curly braces โ€” e.g., {constructal flow in climate modeling}.
  • Receive a prompt to choose between:
  • โ€œ1โ€ โ€” Basic Information
  • โ€œ2โ€ โ€” Specialized Information
  • Use logic commands to explore and navigate:
  • โ€œoption Xโ€ to select topics
  • โ€œtopics โ€ฆ Xโ€ to drill deeper into topic structure
  • โ€œmoreโ€ to extend any current layer
  • โ€œ1โ€ to return to Basic view
  • Now: Insert your topic between the curly braces above, and type your output selection (โ€œ1โ€ or โ€œ2โ€) to begin.