Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
Buy my weather changing machines before midnight and Iโll save you $38 Trillion dollars and throw in some rainy days (or sunny ones, whatever you need).
Buy my weather changing machines before midnight and Iโll save you $38 Trillion dollars and throw in some rainy days (or sunny ones, whatever you need).
Trust me, Earthโs Chief Climate-economist said, while stacking climate models that donโt work on top of crystal balls that forecast the economy. Two failures squared and projected to infinity makes great headlines and a never ending grant.
Their climate models canโt predict the most influential global climate phenomenon on the planet even six months in advance, so 25 year predictions are โobviouslyโ the way to go. (No one will know they were wrong). The El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives heatwaves and floods across the globe but no matter what supercomputer they use, not one of the 23 General Circulation Models of Climate can tell you whether 2025 will be La Nina or El Nino, let alone 2045. Weโre in the chicken-entrail days of climate forecasting.
Not one of the UN experts can even name the key variables that drive the ENSO cycle. Is it the solar wind blasting us at a million miles an hour, is it the interplanetary magnetic field, ultraviolet cycles, or cosmic rays? Is it geothermal hot leaks in submarine trenches we havenโt mapped, undersea volcanoes we havenโt measured, or phytoplankton blooms we didnโt even know we needed to pay attention to until last year? Remember how the same geniuses blamed mankind for the horrid benzene and toluene in the vast Southern Ocean for years, only to discover the dang pollutants were made by industrial microbes in the ocean? Both those gases are aerosols that seed clouds far above the ocean, and those clouds are big enough to be mapped from space, but Climate Models go Brrr, and say โgive me your moneyโ.
Climate Change Will Cost Global Economy $38 Trillion Every Year Within 25 Years, Scientists Warn
Robert Hart, Forbes
Damages from climate change will set the global economy back an estimated $38 trillion a year by 2049, with a likely range of between $19 trillion and $59 trillion, warned a trio of researchers from Potsdam and Berlin in Germany in a peer reviewed study published in the journal Nature.
To obtain the figure, researchers analyzed data on how climate change impacted the economy in more than 1,600 regions around the world over the past 40 years, using this to build a model to project future damages compared to a baseline world economy where there are no damages from human-driven climate change.
Bragging about โ40 yearsโ and 1,600 regions like that means something, is just fawning over mindless big number climate-porn figures. The last 4 million years of โclimate changeโ looks like an earthquake readout and it wasnโt caused by man-made CO2. There are cycles in here that last 40,000 years and cycles we donโt even know about. We have captured one thousandth of one cycle and weโre boasting about it?
L. E. Lisiecki and M. E. Raymo (2005)
This paper in โNatureโ the formerly esteemed journal, reads like a sales brochure in the press release. These scientists took lessons from the Mafia:
Even if CO2 emissions were to be drastically cut down starting today, the world economy is already committed to an income reduction of 19% until 2050 due to climate change, a study published in Nature finds. These damages are six times larger than the mitigation costs needed to limit global warming to two degrees.
So based on their models that donโt work, and miss scores of variables, they estimate we should bet trillions, and redesign our entire national economy or our income will be smaller than it was probably, maybe going to be if we didnโt. Satisfaction guaranteed. Just ask us in 25 years and weโll model how much money we saved you.
Almost without fail every time there is some oddball or unique weather event, climate alarmists immediately rushed to blame it on climate change whether or not thereโs any facts to support it.
Almost without fail every time there is some oddball or unique weather event, climate alarmists immediately rushed to blame it on climate change whether or not thereโs any facts to support it.
Such is the case with Uber alarmist bill McKinnon founder of 350 dot org as well as โthird actโ and a supporter of a whole host of other rabble rouser organizations who erroneously and irrationally think climate change is going to kill us all.
Yesterday, Bill put his foot in his mouth, bigtime, as you can see in the featured image above.
His original Tweet and my reply:
Hey @billmckibben once again, as usual, you're WRONG. "Climate change" had nothing to do with it. A cloud seeding experiment gone overboard was the cause: NCM: โWhenever there are clouds in the sky, we conduct cloud seeding operations. From yesterday till today [Tuesdayโฆ
Multiple reports, including Bloomberg, cited meteorologists at the countryโs National Center for Meteorology saying the agency had flown six or seven cloud seeding flights in the lead-up to the storm.
Clearly, Bill is in the wrong. The question is, does he have enough integrity to tweet out to his supporters that he was wrong? That climate change had no role in this weather, not climate, event?
Since the 1990s, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been actively engaged in cloud seeding efforts, overseen by the National Center of Meteorology (NCM). This government agency manages the countryโs Rain Enhancement Program, utilizing a network of numerous weather stations to closely monitor atmospheric conditions for seeding operations.
Seeding aircraft are deployed into clouds identified as most conducive to precipitation, where they release seeding agents to stimulate rainfall. Recent field campaigns conducted last fall involved experimenting with three distinct approaches: Nanomaterial Seeding, Large Salt Particle Seeding, and Conventional Hygroscopic Flares, as reported by the Emirates News Agency.
Ahmed Habib, a specialist meteorologist at NCM, revealed to Bloomberg that seeding planes conducted seven missions over two days leading up to the heavy rainfall that inundated parts of the desert nation. While some attributed the rare event, described as a once-in-a-century occurrence, to the weather modification technique, itโs essential to consider other atmospheric factors.
In an interview with GRAZIA Middle East, a meteorology expert from the NCM, was quoted as saying, โWhenever there are clouds in the sky, we conduct cloud seeding operations. From yesterday till today [Tuesday afternoon], we carried out six trips. There is a significant decrease in temperatures today and on Wednesday, itโs a drop of around 10 degrees Celsius.โ
Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli also noted that the air was saturated with an excessive amount of desert dust when the intense rainfall occurred over Dubai. This dust, acting as a natural cloud-seeding agent, raises questions about whether man-made seeding alone can be held accountable for the deluge.
The Sun is a variable star and the amount of energy it emits varies from month to month, year to year, and century to century. One of the manifestations of these variations are sunspots, which are more common when the Sun is more active and disappear when it is less active.
The Sun is a variable star and the amount of energy it emits varies from month to month, year to year, and century to century. One of the manifestations of these variations are sunspots, which are more common when the Sun is more active and disappear when it is less active. These spots follow a solar cycle of about 11 years, but sometimes there is a longer period, decades or centuries, when the Sunโs activity is so low that there are no spots. These periods are called grand solar minima. There are also periods of decades or centuries when the activity is higher. These are called grand solar maxima.
The Sun provides 99.9% of the energy that the climate system receives. So, there have always been scientists who thought that variations in the Sun were the cause of climate change. The problem is that they never had enough evidence to prove it. Until now.
The IPCC and NASA sayโฆ
The IPCC and NASA are convinced that changes in the Sun have very little effect on climate. They rely on two arguments. The first is that changes in solar activity are very small. We measure them with satellites because they cannot be measured from the surface, and we know that the radiant energy coming from the Sun varies by only 0.1%. The magnitude of the changes is better appreciated when we use the full scale. Many scientists believe that such a small change can only produce small changes in climate.
The second argument is that the evolution of temperature does not coincide with the evolution of solar activity. Since the 1990s, solar activity has decreased while warming has continued.[i]
Actually, this argument is not valid because it does not say that the Sun does not affect temperature, but that it is not the only factor in doing so, something we already knew because temperature responds to many factors such as El Niรฑo, volcanoes, the polar vortex, or changes in the Earthโs orbit. There are many natural causes that change the climate, and what we need to know is whether the Sun is one of the main ones.
To find out, we donโt need to care what the IPCC and NASA think, we need to ask the climate itself. It doesnโt matter how small the changes in the Sun are if it turns out that the climate responds strongly to them by causing big changes.
Climate during the Holocene
And the best way to find out is to look at what has happened to the climate over the last 11,000 years, the interglacial period we call the Holocene. The advantage of doing this is that the Holocene climate changes could not have been caused by changes in COโ. They must have been caused by something else.
To study the climate of the past, scientists use various climate proxies that they collect in different parts of the world. A major study published in Science used 73 of these proxies to reconstruct Holocene climate.[ii] I have used the same proxies, with a slight modification in the way they are mixed.
What we see, and what a large number of studies also support, is that there was a warm period of thousands of years, called the Climate Optimum, followed by a long period of cooling, called Neoglaciation.
How do we know that this reconstruction is correct? Another study reconstructed the progress of the Earthโs glaciers over the past 11,000 years.[iii] They divided the globe into 17 regions, and this graph shows the number of regions whose glaciers increased in size during each century of the Holocene.
Since glaciers grow when it is colder, we can invert their figure and compare it to the temperature reconstruction graph so that its meaning is the same. We find a high degree of agreement. The glaciers confirm what the temperature reconstruction shows. We also know that COโ has done the opposite of temperature, but that is a story for another day.
Note: y-axis is the Z factor, which is related to temperature anomaly.
Both graphs also show some severe cooling episodes that were accompanied by increased glacier growth. These abrupt climate events of the past have been studied and identified by paleoclimatologists. Of all of them, we will focus on four of the most important ones. The Boreal Oscillation, the 5.2 kiloyear event, the 2.8 kiloyear event, and the Little Ice Age.
The four are separated by multiples of 2,500 years and form a cycle that I have called the Bray cycle because that was the name of the scientist who discovered it in 1968.[iv]
Now that we know the climate of the past, we need to talk about the activity of the Sun in the past.
Past solar activity
The Sunโs activity is recorded in the tree rings through the action of cosmic rays. A constant stream of cosmic rays from the galaxy reaches the solar system. Some interact with the atmosphere. Some collide with nitrogen in the atmosphere, converting it to carbon-14, which is heavier than normal carbon-12 and radioactive. This carbon-14 combines with oxygen to form radioactive COโ, which is breathed by trees. The carbon is used in photosynthesis to make cellulose, which allows the tree trunk to grow in diameter. When the tree dies, the carbon-14 in the wood slowly decays over centuries and millennia. You just have to measure how much carbon-14 is left in the wood to know how much time has passed since the tree died.
Each growth ring of a tree records the carbon-14 that was in the atmosphere that year, and scientists have used millennia-old trees and preserved logs to construct a calibration curve that spans tens of thousands of years. This allows them to determine the age of any organic remains, even if it is not a tree trunk, just by knowing the carbon-14 it contains. This is known as radiocarbon dating.
The only problem is that the production of carbon-14 by cosmic rays is not constant. The Sunโs magnetic field deflects the path of cosmic rays, causing many to miss the Earth, and changes in the Sunโs activity affect its magnetic field.
As the Sunโs activity increases, fewer cosmic rays arrive, less carbon-14 is produced, and organic remains appear older because they contain less of it. When the Sunโs activity becomes weaker, more cosmic rays arrive, more carbon-14 is produced, and the organic remains look younger because they contain more of it.
This produces deviations in the calibration curve that allow us to know what the Sunโs activity was in the past.
Spรถrer-type solar minima
When we analyze the radiocarbon curve over the last 11,000 years, we observe large deviations that indicate long periods of low solar activity. These extended periods of low solar activity are called grand solar minima and increase carbon-14 production by 2%. The most common ones last about 75 years, and there have been about twenty in the last 11,000 years. The most recent was the Maunder Minimum in the late 17th century. But there are other types of grand solar minima that are much more severe because they last twice as long, about 150 years. The last of these severe solar minima was the Spรถrer Minimum, which occurred in the 15th and 16th centuries.
There have been only four such Spรถrer-type grand minima in the entire Holocene. 2,800 years ago, there was the Homer Minimum, 5,200 years ago the Sumerian Minimum, and 10,300 years ago the Boreal Minimum. We know when they occurred thanks to tree rings.
If the dates sound familiar, it is because the four grand Spรถrer-type Holocene minima coincide exactly with the four major climatic events on the graph we saw earlier. We know that during each of these grand solar minima, when the Sunโs activity dropped for 150 years, the climate experienced a tremendous cooling that had a major effect on climate proxies around the globe.
We also know that low solar activity during the grand minima has had a major impact on human populations. Past human settlements and their component structures can be radiocarbon dated. When humans were doing well in the past, the population grew and they built more, and when they were doing poorly, usually because there was less food, the population decreased and they built less. Scientists have estimated the evolution of the human population of the British Isles by analyzing the radiocarbon dates of thousands and thousands of remains from hundreds of archaeological excavations.[v]
What they have found is that the population increased greatly with the advent of agriculture, but every time there was a severe deterioration in the climate, the human population suffered from diminishing resources. And the largest declines occurred when grand Spรถrer-type solar minima took place. Other population declines also coincide with other cooling periods, confirming our reconstruction.
This tells us that the worst climate changes in the past have been caused by changes in solar activity. It also tells us that what is bad for humanity is cooling, not warming.
Now we can respond to the IPCC and NASA. Never mind that solar irradiance changes very little, and never mind that temperature does not always do the same thing as solar activity. Clearly there are other factors at play. But we can state emphatically that changes in solar activity affect the climate because that is what the climate says. The study of past climate leaves no room for doubt. The Sun changes the climate. And if we donโt know how it does it, we should study it.
The 20th century solar maximum
Since low solar activity causes cooling, it stands to reason that high activity must cause warming. Solar activity in the 20th century was very high, in the top 10% of the last 11,000 years.
If we count the number of sunspots in each solar cycle over the last 300 years and divide by the length of each cycle, we can see how much solar activity has deviated from the average. Since the Maunder Minimum, during the Little Ice Age, solar activity has been increasing and was well above average between 1933 and 1996, a period of six cycles of increased solar activity that formed the 20th century solar maximum.
Although we cannot know how much of the 20th century warming is due to this modern solar maximum, there is no denying that it is a significant part, because as we have seen, the Sun has been the cause of much of the major climate change over the past 11,000 years.
Conclusions
There are two pieces of good news. The first is that solar activity cannot rise above the 20th century maximum. It is not like COโ, which can keep going up. The Sunโs activity can stay high or go down, but it cannot go up, so the warming should not accelerate and should not be dangerous.
In 2016, I developed a model to predict solar activity in the 21st century. At the time, some scientists believed that solar activity would continue to decline until a new grand solar minimum and mini-ice age. But my model predicts that solar activity in the 21st century will be similar to that of the 20th century. It also predicted that the current solar cycle, the 25th, would have more activity than the previous one, and it was right.
The second piece of good news is that if much of the 20th century warming is due to the Sun, then there is no climate emergency. Believing that all climate change is due to our emissions is one of those errors that sometimes occur in science, like believing that the Earth is the center of the solar system, that interplanetary space is full of ether, or that stomach ulcers are caused by stress, not bacteria.
In an age of increasing hyperbole about natural phenomena it had to appear sooner or later: an alarmist claim that โclimate changeโ (CC) was, could, can or is causing more intense volcanic activity on planet Earth.
In an age of increasing hyperbole about natural phenomena it had to appear sooner or later: an alarmist claim that โclimate changeโ (CC) was, could, can or is causing more intense volcanic activity on planet Earth.
We spend a lot of our time thinking about climate change, but listener Paul [from near Blackpool, United Kingdom] has a question that isnโt usually part of the conversation. He wants to know whether a hotter atmosphere will affect how often volcanoes erupt, or make them more explosive when they do. (CrowdScience audio, 3 min.)
Climate change could cause more earthquakes and volcanic eruptions by increasing the weight of water on the Earthโs crust.
When glaciers melt, the water can seep into cracks in the Earthโs crust, causing them to widen and weaken.
This can lead to earthquakes, especially in areas that are already seismically active.
Climate change can also cause more volcanic eruptions by increasing the amount of magma in the Earthโs mantle.
Consider, for example, his fourth claim. The only evidence given for it is a GSA research article published on November 16, 2017. Yet the summary stresses the uncertainties:
Over glacial-interglacial time scales changes in surface loading exerted by large variations in glacier size affect the rates of volcanic activity. Numerical models suggest that smaller changes in ice volume over shorter time scales may also influence rates of mantle melt generation. However, this effect has not been verified in the geological record. Furthermore, the time lag between climatic forcing and a resultant change in the frequency of volcanic eruptions is unknown.
Its ten authors claim their modelling reveals โan apparent time lag of about 600 yearsโ between a past climate event and a โchange in eruption frequencyโ in Iceland. Hence any โincrease in volcanic eruptions due to ongoing deglaciation since the end of the Little Ice Age may not become apparent for hundreds of years.โ
We shall have to wait a while, dear reader, before we know whether this hypothesis is more than model-driven academic speculation. How jolly convenient.
Whatever the case, CrowdScience went off to New Zealand to find an answer to listener Paulโs question, and to check out traditional Maori knowledge about volcanoes.
Presenter Caroline Steel had a chat with two volcanologists, Geoff Kilgour from Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS), Taupo, New Zealand; Heather Handley, Associate Professor of volcanic hazards and geoscience communication with the University of Twente, The Netherlands; and Pouroto Ngaropo, historian and Matauranga Mฤori expert in Rotorua, New Zealand. (A 27 minute podcast is available at CrowdScience.)
Once again there was more speculation than fact, more sizzle than sausage.
Dr Kilgour speculated that CC could affect ash distribution after an eruption by causing a โslight change in wind patternsโ. His conclusion: โWe need to do a lot more work to understand the impacts of CC on volcanic behaviour.โ (Audio: 11.0min.)
Dr Handley was more emphatic. She referred to the 2021 Mount Semeru eruption in East Java. She suggested it began after several days of heavy rain from December 4thcaused the collapse of its lava dome. Yet major eruptions occur here so frequently it is hard to accept bad weather is a significant causal factor, at least for me.
Ms Steel: Itโs kind of mind-blowing that heavy rain could cause a series of volcanic eruptions. In my head volcanoes are so strong and steady that the fact they can be affected by rain, or even CC, just feels really surprising.
Dr Handley: Itโs definitely an area where weโre starting to think along these lines. What are the other externals โ factors outside normal volcanic behaviour โ that can influence volcanoes?
Ms Steel: What about the melting glaciers you mentioned earlier, whose effects we might only start seeing at some time in the future? What time scales are we talking about there?
Dr Handley: So far they think itโs about 1,000 years. But being prepared for events in the future that might happen on longer time scales are something we should still be understanding and preparing for. Itโs not today, but future generations have to be prepared to deal with it. And so I think itโs very important as a scientist to have a more holistic view of a system to better understand what the impacts and implications might be of change. (Audio: 19.0min.)
Pouroto Ngaropo quoted a Maori prayer. It was, he said, all about connecting people to the land and to the โgeothermal energy that bubbles beneath their feet.โ This ancient energy enables me to connect to the beginning of time, and to the Creator.โ From a Maori perspective, mountains are a living and breathing entities. โWe have a saying: โI am the mountain and the mountain is meโ. As for Maori knowledge, it is โsimilar to scientific knowledge.โ
Ms Steel: Pouroto works closely with geologist Geoff and his colleagues at the GNS. They share their knowledge so they can better understand the changing landscape. Knowledge of the land has been passed down through generations, an aural record of how volcanoes have behaved in the past, how they have been affected by changing seasons and weather patterns, which is a key part of understanding how they might respond to a warming planet in the future. (Audio: 22min.)
Pouroto: Our ancestors were a lot more attune to the natural world around them. When you are living deep within the heart of your natural environment you can sense and feel things.
Ms Steel: This wisdom, passed down in song through the ages is culturally and scientifically invaluable; and by combining deep knowledge with cutting-edge scientific research, Pouroto and Geoff are learning even more about the land, with the aim of forecasting eruptions and saving lives. (Audio: 25min.)
Addressing listener Paul, however, Ms Steel admitted defeat. She ended the episode with this comment:
Ms Steel: When it comes to volcanic activity, itโs not so much the warming Earth we need to worry about, but the melting glaciers, changing winds and extreme weather events. This probably sounds all too familiar. Geoff, Heather and Pouroto are doing their best to build a clearer picture, but the impacts of man-made climate change on the planet โ volcanoes included โ are very unpredictable.(Audio: 27min.)
Just as well too. For some reason the CrowdScience episode did not mention the elephant, if not in the room, then in the Bay of Plenty. Neither Maori traditional knowledge โ nor scientific knowledge from real-time monitoring by New Zealandโs GNS Science โ predicted or prevented this tragedy: the explosive eruption of the active Whakaari / White Island volcano on December 9, 2019. Perhaps it did not fit the programโs CC narrative.
It is difficult today to comprehend how NZ agencies allowed its most active volcano to be promoted as a tourist destination, especially after a similar eruption there in 2016, fortunately at night.
There were 47 people on Whakaari at the time of the 2019 eruption: 42 paying tourists and five tour guides employed by commercial tour operators. They were all on the crater floor, at different locations along a circular route used by the operator. (Photo: webcam image below).
Anyone caught in a pyroclastic density current (fast-moving cloud of hot ash), is in deep trouble. Twenty-two people died, either in the explosion or from injuries. Twenty-five were injured, most needing intensive care for severe burns. Two bodies were never found. Recovery efforts were delayed due to seismic and volcanic activity, heavy rain and the presence of toxic gases.
WorkSafe NZ later investigated the tragedy. It charged 13 defendants under s 37 of the Health and Safety at Work Act 2015. Six pleaded guilty and six had their charges dismissed either prior to or during a criminal trial in the District Court, Auckland. The remaining defendant Whakaari Management Limited (WML) was convicted on October 31, 2023.
One of the defendants was the NZ Crown Research Institute, GNS Science. It pleaded guilty to an amended charge in May 2023. GNS had been contracting Whakaari tour helicopter companies to fly its scientists to the island. GNS was sentenced by WorkSafe NZ for its failure to consult pilots about the risks of what they were doing between 2016 and 2019.
The most revealing expert witness was GNS Science principal scientist, Dr Gillian Jolly, also Chief Science Advisor for the NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.
Dr Jolly told the courtroom on July 19 last year that Whakaari / White Island was showing signs of higher activity in the days before the disaster, but โvolcanoes are inherently unpredictableโ.
โWe can never definitely say when an eruption might happen,โ she said. โWe never talk about volcanic activity being predictable. Prediction implies you know what is going to happen and when. We prefer to talk about forecasting and probability.โ There was no mention of CC as a causal factor.
GNS Science had been monitoring Whakaari closely, Dr Jolly told prosecutor Kristy McDonald KC. GNS experts had visited the island five days before the eruption.
Whakaari, being a frequently active volcano, we used the full suite of monitoring [equipment]. On the island, we had two seismometers permanently providing real-time data, we had two global position system instruments, we had two differential optical absorption spectrometers looking at the gas coming out [of the volcano], and we had three cameras pointing at the active vent. (Dr Gillian Jolly, principal scientist, GNS.)
Whakaari was showing โheightened activityโ just before the eruption. โFor the period towards the end of 2019, we saw a number of parameters that were showing elevated signs. The more unrest indicators, the more likely an eruption.โ
However, GNS could not use that data to determine when, or if, an eruption would occur: โMonitoring and forecasting volcanoes is like forecasting weather [or climate change],except youโve got your eyes closed.โ
It would have been impossible for GNS Science to provide an accurate warning with its current technology and understanding of volcanic activity. Even if it could, GNS had โno powerโ to stop tours from going ahead: โWeโre not a regulator.โ
A week before the tragedy, the GNS volcanic alert bulletin reported that volcanic unrest continued with โsubstantial gas, steam and mud burstsโ at the vent at the back of the crater. The bulletin stated there was no direct hazard to visitors, but warned that eruptions could occur without warning.
GNS staff were advised to stay further than 520 metres from the vent. Dr Jolly said its experts considered the island โmay be entering a period when eruptive activity is more likely than normalโ.
According to Amy Williams, a RNZ reporter, the court was shown a draft volcanic alert bulletin, prepared on the day of the eruption, but not sent to tour operators.
GNS had kept the alert level at two โ meaning there was moderate to heightened volcanic unrest. The bulletin described how Whakaari was โthrowing mud and debris 20 to 30 metres into the air above the ventโ.
โOverall this level of activity remains within the range of expected from moderate to heightened volcanic unrest,โ the draft alert stated. โThe current level of activity does not pose a clear hazard to island visitors.โ
GNS estimated the chance of an eruption outside of the Whakaari crater rim in the next 28 days was one in seven.
A year later, Pouroto Ngaropo was interviewed by SBS Dateline. โI still ask myselfโ, he said, โwhy did Whakaari take life? It was like the heart was ripped out of us all.โ
I was on Whakaari the week before it exploded. I felt like something was not normal and I could already feel her crying with pain.
There was going to be a risk taking people to the island. As humans we always think we have control but we donโt: we are subservient to Whakaari because she can blow at any time.
Was it a message to us, to address our continual abuse of the Earth? I believe it was a reminder of how we need to look after the environment and look after one another.
Michael Kile
This essay was posted in Australia atย Quadrant Onlineย on April 13, 2024, with the title: โVolcanoes โ The Climateersโ Latest Silly Scare Story.โ
Satellite data proves the greenhouse effect is real. The heat absorbed from the sun must be balanced by infrared heat escaping back to space. However, some wavelengths of infrared heat are absorbed by greenhouse gases and redirected back towards the earth. That has slowed the earthโs rate of cooling and enables the habitable temperatures of today.
By Jim Steele
Satellite data proves the greenhouse effect is real. The heat absorbed from the sun must be balanced by infrared heat escaping back to space. However, some wavelengths of infrared heat are absorbed by greenhouse gases and redirected back towards the earth. That has slowed the earthโs rate of cooling and enables the habitable temperatures of today.
But most scientists also believe the lower atmosphere is now saturated with CO2. Adding more CO2 will have little to no further warming effect. Furthermore, greenhouse gases have a cooling effect in the upper atmosphere. The climate crisis narrative pushed by some scientists argues that increasing levels of CO2 from burning of fossil fuels will continue to warm the earth by trapping more (Outgoing Longwave Radiation – OLR) infrared heat. Based on the greenhouse effect, that theory is plausible. But the scientific evidence refutes it.
Satellites can now measure how much OLR is escaping to space. If the climate crisis narrative is true, more CO2 would trap more OLR, so less OLR escaping to space should be detected.
But since 1985 (graphic A) , satellites have detected that OLR had increased by about 2 W/m2 by 2018. (Watts per meter squared, W/m2, a Watt is a measure of energy per second ). That observed increasing OLR either means heat is more easily escaping, or the earth is heating via another dynamic.
Since 1980, CO2 concentrations have increased from 338 parts per million to 410 ppm. That means rising CO2 should have theoretically trapped and REDUCED OLR adding 1.02 W/m2 of heat. Instead we observe increasing OLR and that refutes the crisis narratives.
Satellites have also measured a decrease in global cloud cover by over 7%. That allows greater solar heating (graphic B). Fewer clouds better correlates with a warming of the earth and an increase in OLR.
Trust the science! The rampant climate crisis narratives deny the science. Climate crisis narratives are misinformation designed to manipulate the public with fear.
Peer reviewed science referred to in this tweet: Decadal Changes of Earthโs Outgoing Longwave Radiation Dewitte & Clerbaux (2018)
Clouds independently appear to have as much or greater effect than man-made CO2 on radiative forcing Jonas (2022)
Posted Sat 13 Apr 2024 at 6:30amSaturday 13 Apr 2024 at 6:30am, updated Sat 13 Apr 2024 at 6:58am
In short:ย The first LNGย import terminal in Australia is nearing completion at Port Kembla, near Wollongong.
Squadron Energy says the gas brought in will be enough to supply most of the needs of NSW and Victoria.
Whatโs next?ย Squadron is negotiating to secure supply contracts with energy companies.
Australiaโs first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal is almost built, but it remains unclear who will be buying its gas.
โฆ
The Twiggy Forrest-backed company claims the gas imported can supply almost all of Victoriaโs forecast gas needs and 70 per cent of the requirements of New South Wales.
โI donโt think we could be at a better time in the market than right where we are,โ said Squadron Energy CEO Rob Wheals.
โThe facility is now 90 per cent complete and the market is facing critical gas shortages over the next couple of years.โ
โฆ
AEMO said the east coast could see shortages as soon as next year if there is a particularly cold winter causing a spike in peak demand.
Obviously fracking Australiaโs substantial shale gas fields or setting up coalfield gas projects would have eliminated the need to build a gas import terminal, but Andrew โTwiggyโ Forest has long been a critic of domestic Australian fossil fuel production, and has repeatedly helped to convince politicians to block domestic energy projects.
โIf they donโt believe the science, they can fuck off:โ Forrest backs coal and gas ban
Iron ore billionaire Andrew Forrest has called on leaders of all political stripes to get serious about climate action, or get out of the way, in a feisty exchange over the Greensโ new bid to block new fossil fuel projects in Australia.
โฆ
In the mainstream media, the general hot take is that this move has essentially put a bomb under Laborโs entire carbon reduction mechanism plan, in a classic example of letting the perfect get in the way of the good.
Does Twiggy agree?
In a word, no.
โPeople who do not understand the grave risk of climate change should not be in any position of influence,โ Forrest said.
โWeโre on a climate edge here, and I want every legislator, not just in the Greens, not just in Labor, not just in Liberal or in the [Nationals], every legislator in the world to bring themselves up to speed with the science.
โIf they donโt believe the science then they can just fuck off. Right? They should be nowhere near having any responsibility, whatsoever,โ he said.
โEvery legislator in the world should bring themselves up to speed on the science and act accordingly.โ
This new gas import terminal comes just in time for all that extra gas drilling and export capacity Abu Dhabi announced at the last climate conference.
Iโm sure Twiggy had our best interests at heart, when he campaigned to shut down domestic energy production while building a new import terminal.
After all, it would be a shame if all that additional capacity Abu Dhabi announced at the last climate conference was duplicated by new capacity in Australia.
Doubling up on capacity would create the risk of oversupply and a global fossil fuel energy price drop, which could in turn reduce household bills and delay the green energy transition.
We should all really thank Twiggy for ensuring energy continuity, by providing a gas import terminal just when supplies are getting tight thanks to all the domestic energy projects regulators have vetoed in recent years.
The number of Germanyโs corporate insolvencies in March reached the highest level on record, new data reveal. Itโs the Great Green Energies economic debacle
Stressed business man covering face with hands in office. Working over time or too much. Problem with failing business or confusion with crisis. Entrepreneur in bankruptcy.
Corporate insolvencies at an all-time high in March โ Why Germany’s economy needs more than just hope
The number of Germanyโs corporate insolvencies in March reached the highest level on record, new data reveal. Itโs the Great Green Energies economic debacle
Blackout News here calls the trend โalarmingโ and that it is โa clear sign of the worsening economic crisis. The news are based on data released by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
โThere has been nothing comparable since 2016, the year the data was first collected,โ reports Blackout News. โThis development not only points to internal company problems, it also highlights the extensive economic challenges the country is facing.โ
Insolvencies are even worse than during the Corona pandemic lockdown years.
โExorbitantly high energy costsโ
Analysts say the main driver behind the dire trend are Germanyโs exorbitantly high energy costs, mostly due to the countryโs mismanaged foray into green energies โ like wind and solar โ and the transition away from affordable and stable conventional energy sources like natural gas, coal and nuclear power.
โThe wave of corporate insolvencies cannot be explained by poor business decisions alone. Rather, it is the high cost of energy, which is driving up operating costs in times of global uncertainty, and a tax policy that leaves little room for investment,โ Blackout News adds.
Both, left and center-right, are to blame
The push to green energies, and away from conventional sources, began in earnest under the government led by Angela Merkel and her CDU center right party. The latest Socialist-Green coalition government, led by Olaf Scholz and Robert Habeck, have since pushed draconian policies that have only exacerbated Germanyโs economic and energy woes.
Most experts argue that the government hasnโt been fixing problems, rather it has been making them far worse. It simply refuses to acknowledge the reality.
Industrial exodusโฆcountry needs more than just hope
โThe current crisis demands far more from political decision-makers than just hoping for a calming of the market,โ adds Blackout News. โComprehensive measures are neededโฆthe measures include a reduction in energy costs.โ
Blackout News recently reportedย on the โindustrial exodusโ as โGermanyโs economic crisis forces traditional companies to flee.โ
The climate is up the spout and weโre to blame. The planet is boiling like a pan of porridge. We face the possible extinction of all life on earth. โScienceโ says so. Anyone who questions it is a demonic scoundrel. The climate catastrophe is a 100% solid-gold, slam-dunk irrefutable fact.
The climate is up the spout and weโre to blame. The planet is boiling like a pan of porridge. We face the possible extinction of all life on earth. โScienceโ says so. Anyone who questions it is a demonic scoundrel. The climate catastrophe is a 100% solid-gold, slam-dunk irrefutable fact.
Hmm. And yet, it is clear to anyone who has paid the slightest attention, that the tired, hysterical predictions of the climate alarmists (made repeatedly over four decades and based on their hypothetical computer-models) have proved to be spectacularly wrong, again and again and again. It does not take much digging (we have the internet these days) to discover that the outlandish claims of climate alarmists are flatly contradicted by lots and lots of perfectly good scientific evidence and data. Weโre not talking here about fringe science put about by whackos. Weโre talking about official data โ mainstream science, published in respected journals. (Some of it is featured in my โclimate-denierโ film, Climate: The Movie, available for free online).
The world is not boiling. We are, as any geologist will tell you, in an ice age โ one of the coldest periods in the last 500 million years. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere is not unnaturally or frighteningly high. Compared to the last half billion years of earthโs history it is extremely low. And there is no evidence that changing levels of atmospheric CO2 (it has changed radically many times in the past) has ever โdriven climate changeโ. If there had been, Al Gore would have said so in his silly film, but he didnโt. Hurricane activity is not increasing, nor are the number of wildfires, nor are the number of droughts, and so on and so on. This is what the official data say. You can look it up.
Of course this is all a bit embarrassing for the science establishment. The climate alarm is worth billions to them in climate-related funding. A lot of jobs depend on it. A lot of reputations are at stake. And itโs deeply awkward for the renewables industry, which turns over around a trillion dollars a year.
The climate alarm is not supported by scientific evidence. It is supported by bullying, intimidation and the censorship of anyone who dares to question it. Climate catastrophism is politics, shamelessly dressed up as science.
The climate scare was the invention of the environmentalist movement, which stands opposed to vulgar, dirty, free-market capitalism. They say there are too many people, consuming too much. We must be restrained and contained, for the sake of Gaia. The solution to the global, existential climate problem is higher taxes and more regulation.
At any social gathering, you can pretty confidently predict who will think what about climate, by asking them about taxes and regulation. People who love the Big State canโt get enough of climate chaos. People who want lower taxes and less regulation will roll their eyes and say rude things about little Greta.
Across the Western world, the state has grown enormously over the last century, vastly increasing the number of people whose livelihoods depend on state-spending, and whose jobs are related, directly or indirectly, to government control. In the U.K. and U.S. both, more than twice as many people now work in government as work in manufacturing. And this does not include all those (in the third sector etc.) who rely indirectly on government largesse.
These people depend on government. They are paid for out of taxation. In such circles to proclaim the joys of a small state, lower taxes and less government is a breach of social etiquette. You have crossed a moral line. You will be suspected of liking Donald Trump, of voting Brexit, of hating lockdown and compulsory vaccination, of defending the Second Amendment, of being a climate denier.
And indeed all this may well be true. These views tend to hang together. As do the views of those on the other side. To repeat, the climate alarm is in fact politics dressed up as science. We are, as more people are beginning to realise, engaged in a class war. On one side, the tax-consuming regulating class that feeds from taxation and bosses us about. On the other, the rest of us in the private sector, who rather resent paying taxes and being told what to do and how to live our lives.
This is the real basis for the consensus on climate change. The consensus exists among our sprawling, tax-consuming establishment. This is not a small group of people. It is an entire class. It is, if you will, the ruling class. It controls our civil service, our schools and universities, large parts of our arts and science establishments and much of the media. It is an intolerant class, deeply aware of its own interests. The taboo that surrounds climate scepticism is a reflection of its power.
It would be nice to think that politely pointing to the actual scientific data might put an end to all the climate chaos nonsense.ย Sadly it wonโt. Because this ainโt about science.
Apparently if it wasnโt for climate change, we wouldnโt be having so much of this hot and cold weather which is stretching household finances in California.
Apparently if it wasnโt for climate change, we wouldnโt be having so much of this hot and cold weather which is stretching household finances in California.
Climate change driving demand for predatory loans, research shows
Study connects heatwaves and cold snaps to surges in payday lending, keeping people in debt and harming communities of color
Two competing payday loan stores stand on the corners of an intersection in south Los Angeles. An area of persistent poverty, south LA is also a banking desert where payday lenders fill the gap. Long lines form inside the stores on the first of the month, when rent is due.
Guillermina Molina, a 60-year-old retired housekeeper, visits the same Speedy Cash each month. During the summer months โ which are becoming increasingly hot โ she runs her air conditioner but frets about her utility bills. โItโs kind of hard because the [power bill] is coming up too high because you gotta have the air conditioner on,โ Molina said.
During heatwaves, Molinaโs daughter, Vanessa Vargas, checks in on her every day. โI donโt want to pull up to her house and find her [passed out] because of the heat,โ she said.
Molina doesnโt have savings, so to cover her bills she takes out a $225 payday loan every month, paying $45 in interest on each loan. When sheโs unable to pay back her loan on time, sheโs charged extra. โThereโs nothing left over,โ Vargas said.
Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans
by Shihan Xie, Victoria Wenxin Xie and Xu Zhang
This paper explores the impact of extreme weather exposures on the financial outcomes of low-income households. Using a novel dataset comprising individual-level payday loan applications and loan-level information, we find that extreme temperature daysโboth hot and coldโlead to surges in demand for payday loans. An increase in the number of days with extreme heat results in an increase in delinquency and default rates and a reduction of total credit issued, indicating a contraction in loan supply. These effects are especially noticeable for online payday loans. Our findings highlight the heightened financial vulnerability of low- income households to environmental shocks and underscore the need for targeted policies.Read more:
California has some of the most expensive energy in the USA because of their green energy policies.
Regardless of whether you believe in future climate catastrophes, and whether Californiaโs climate initiatives will have a global impact, right now it would be more accurate to say that climate policy rather than climate change is creating financial hardship for low income Californians.
The German edition of the April 12 Epoch Times ran a story, titled โFood prices remain high โ companies blame climate change.โ The Epoch Times, an international newspaper which publishes in 33 countries and 21 languages, rightly expressed skepticism of this claim. Climate change canโt cause inflation, which is always and only a result of government monetary and fiscal policy, and data is clear that modest warming and higher carbon dioxide levels are boosting food production.
The German edition of the April 12ย Epoch Timesย ran a story, titled โFood prices remain high โ companies blame climate change.โ The Epoch Times, an international newspaper which publishes in 33 countries and 21 languages, rightly expressed skepticism of this claim.
Climate change canโt cause inflation, which is always and only a result of government monetary and fiscal policy, and data is clear that modest warming and higher carbon dioxide levels are boosting food production.
After noting that the recent decline in inflation has still left food prices at โcrisis levels,โ the Epoch Times points to two recent reports blaming climate change for continued food price inflation.
โIn a detailed article, the โHandelsblattโ refers to a variety of negative effects that phenomena such as heat, drought, extreme rainfall, increased pest infestation or plant diseases had on crops,โ writes the Epoch Times. โA study by the ECB and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research also assumes possible food inflation of up to 3.2 percent in Europe by 2035 โ due to climate change.โ
The claim that climate change is causing food inflation is easily disposed of. As discussed at Climate Realism across hundreds of articles, none of the climate related weather phenomena mentioned in the story as causing food production problems is worsening; not drought, not extreme heat, not heavy rainfall, not crop pests.
And, indeed, regardless of the weather, Climate Realism has published more than 200 articles showing that crop production and yields have increased dramatically as the Earth has modestly warmed. The articles examine trends for dozens of crops from countries all across the globe covering almost every type of regional climate where crops are produced.
Those interviewed by the Epoch Times complained in particular about the decline in specific crops in specific countries during particular years. Everyone knows weather impacts crops seasonally, yearly, and sometimes over multiple years, so a single year or couple of yearsโ production of a specific crop in one country or another says nothing about whether long-term climate change is causing a problem. To make such a connection one must look at long-term trends.
Climate realism has previously refuted claims that climate change caused a decline inย cocoa beans,ย coffee beans,ย grapes,ย olivesย (see, for example, the Figure 1, below),ย sugar. Those posts cite data from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization to show that both production and yields for these crops have increased dramatically as the Earth has warmed slightly over the past 30 and 50 years, regularly setting records.
Figure 1: U.N. FAO, olive production and yields since 1990.
Whatโs true of those crops is true of spinach and tomatoes, also mentioned in the Epoch Times article, as well. Both crops have experienced a substantial increase in production and yield amidst recent climate change. (See Figure 2 from the FAO below)
The same is also true of sour cherries, which experienced a more than 83 percent increase in production since 1990, on an increase in yield in excess of 60 percent. Blaming the sustained increase in prices for orange juice, chocolate, or organic grapes on a decline in production from one specific country in a single year is the cherry picking of the data by orange juice producers, vintners, and chocolatiers to divert blame from themselves, and the governments which regulate and control their fates, onto the boogeyman of climate change.
In fact, sustained high food prices are not the result of a changing climate but of changing government policies, policies which increase demand in times of limited supply and policies instituted to fight climate change. As Climate Change Weekly discussed recently government climate policies, both domestic and international, have increased the costs of all of the inputs into food, from seeds, to fuel, to pesticides and fertilizers, to electricity for non-perishable storage. These policies have lingered long after the COVID 19 lockdowns, even as governments have expanded the money supply and increased the debt through deficit spending.
Food demand is fairly inelastic. People have to eat to survive, no matter the costs. Demand for food hasnโt increased dramatically. But government policies have made food production harder while disincentivizing financing and investments in food production through public spending. These two factors have resulted in sustained higher food prices
The Epoch Times rightly acknowledges the problematic nature of the claim that climate change is causing food inflation, quoting the Climate Change Weekly article on the topic. Climate change doesnโt print money, nor does it create new programs or increase government spending, injecting money into the economy when productivity is not increasing.
Government policies created inflation in general, and food inflation in particular. And government can end both by halting unjustified, rapidly increasing spending, especially spending on climate policies and by reversing regulations and executive actions which make it more expensive and harder to produce affordable food.
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