Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
The House yesterday passed a concurrent resolution โexpressing the sense of Congress that a carbon tax would be detrimental to the United States economy.โ Ten Democrats joined all but one Republican (Brian Fitzpatrick, PA) in the 222โ196 victory. A free-market, winning policy on climate is to not supportย anyย legislation that increases either taxes or energy prices, directly or indirectly.
Editor Note: The House yesterday passed a concurrent resolution โexpressing the sense of Congress that a carbon tax would be detrimental to the United States economy.โ Ten Democrats joined all but one Republican (Brian Fitzpatrick, PA) in the 222โ196 victory. A free-market, winning policy on climate is to not support any legislation that increases either taxes or energy prices, directly or indirectly.
Expressing the sense of Congress that a carbon tax would be detrimental to the United States economy.
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
January 25, 2024
Mr. Zinke (for himself, Mr. Scalise, Mr. Bost, Mr. Clyde, Mr. Crenshaw, Mr. Perry, Mr. Ogles, Mr. Jackson of Texas, Mrs. Miller of Illinois, Mr. Lamborn, Mrs. Miller of West Virginia, Mr. Carey, Mr. Langworthy, and Mr. Pfluger) submitted the following concurrent resolution; which was referred to the Committee on Ways and Means
CONCURRENT RESOLUTION
Expressing the sense of Congress that a carbon tax would be detrimental to the United States economy.
Whereas a carbon tax is a Federal tax on carbon released from fossil fuels;
Whereas a carbon tax will increase energy prices, including the price of gasoline, electricity, natural gas, and home heating oil;
Whereas a carbon tax will mean that families and consumers will pay more for essentials like food, gasoline, and electricity;
Whereas a carbon tax will fall hardest on the poor, the elderly, and those on fixed incomes;
Whereas a carbon tax will lead to more jobs and businesses moving overseas;
Whereas a carbon tax will lead to less economic growth;
Whereas American families will be harmed the most from a carbon tax;
Whereas, according to the Energy Information Administration, the share of energy consumption during 2023 in the United States that was derived from fossil fuels was approximately 80 percent;
Whereas a carbon tax will increase the cost of every good manufactured in the United States;
Whereas a carbon tax will impose disproportionate burdens on certain industries, jobs, States, and geographic regions and would further restrict the global competitiveness of the United States;
Whereas American ingenuity has led to innovations in energy exploration and development and has increased production of domestic energy resources on private and State-owned land which has created significant job growth and private capital investment;
Whereas the energy policy of the United States should encourage continued private sector innovation and development and not increase the existing tax burden on manufacturers;
Whereas the production of American energy resources increases the ability of the United States to maintain a competitive advantage in todayโs global economy;
Whereas a carbon tax would reduce Americaโs global competitiveness and would encourage development abroad in countries that do not impose this exorbitant tax burden; and Whereas the Congress and the President should focus on pro-growth solutions that encourage increased development of domestic resources: Now therefore, be it
Resolved by the House of Representatives (the Senate concurring),ย That it is the sense of Congress that a carbon tax would be detrimental to American families and businesses, and is not in the best interest of the United States.
The allure of the Arctic continues to captivate imaginations with its beautiful, if sometimes forbidding, wilderness. Equally captivating to some, beneath these vast landscapes of permafrost and ice, is the economic lure of oil and gas promising economic prosperity and development.
The allure of the Arctic continues to captivate imaginations with its beautiful, if sometimes forbidding, wilderness. Equally captivating to some, beneath these vast landscapes of permafrost and ice, is the economic lure of oil and gas promising economic prosperity and development. However, for the Inuit communities in Canada, Alaska and Greenland, who call this region home, securing the benefits of these resources has not been straightforward.
It has long been a popular assumption that the Inuit universally oppose oil and gas projects. However, this an inaccurate perception fed by a media that oversimplifies complex subjects and portrays dissenting voices as widely accepted viewpoints. Although preferences vary, many Inuit communities have long favored development of the regionโs hydrocarbons.
Importance of Oil and Gas for Alaskan Inuit
In 2018, in the town of Utqiagvik, Alaska, the head of one of reportedly the worldโs richest indigenous organization, explained the importance of oil and gas development to the region: โYou see, our region is dependent upon the economy that oil and gas development brings, said Rex Rock, CEO of Arctic Slope Regional Corp.
Not only are houses in Utqiagvik powered by natural gas, the oil economy funds the cityโs municipal expenses and provides the livelihoods of citizens.
This is why the Inupiat people of the North Slope, located at the northern boundary of Alaska, consistently back the regionโs oil projects and, given Washington, D.C.โs hostility toward fossil fuels, have been calling for an amplified role in decision-making.
Writing in support of the North Slopeโs long-delayed Willow project in a WSJ article, Inuit political leaders said, โWe still live in homes that arenโt connected to running water and basic sewage systems. We have no roads connecting our communities because the federal government wonโt allow us to build them. โฆ We are tired of outside groups trying to turn this project and every other oil and gas project in our region into the poster child for a global movement away from fossil fuels.โ
The Willow project is now underway, thanks to a November 2023 court ruling. The first oil is expected in 2024. The project is estimated to generate between $8 billion and $17 billion in new revenue for federal, state and local governments, including Utqiaฤกvikโs.
Inuits Struggle Against Canadian Governmentโs Arctic Moratorium
The situation is even more challenging in the Canadian Arctic. In 2016, the Canadian federal government issued a moratorium on oil and gas activities in the region. Broadcaster CBC News says political leaders in Canadaโs northern provinces, including leaders of indigenous communities, โhave been pushing for those restrictions to be lifted, arguing that the North needs the economic development that would come with offshore exploration and licensing.โ
In August 2023, considering the requests of Inuits and Northern Provinces, the Canadian government signed a historic deal called the โWestern Arctic โ Tariuq Accordโ with the Inuit government. Dubbed as a โfirst of its kind,โ the deal is believed to have opened doors to increased participation of local Inuit communities in the decision-making process for oil and gas projects, paving way for the drilling to resume in this region.
According to reports of the Canadian government, the Inuit, including Mรฉtis and First Nations people, โhave experienced significant disparities in the job marketโ and have โlower educational attainment, insufficient training, โฆ limited access to postsecondary education, lack of affordable housing, lack of childcare.โ
Is it any wonder that indigenous Canadian leaders want oil and gas projects? Apart from direct revenue sharing, likely benefits would include improved access to healthcare, education and emergency services and construction of roads, ports, and telecommunications networks. These in turn will create employment opportunities, eventually reducing socio-economic disadvantages of the Inuit.
Without a doubt, some Inuit have reservations about these projects, and their concerns will play a significant role in the collaborative decision-making process. Ultimately, the goal should be to achieve a mutually beneficial scenario, where Inuit communities desiring these economic initiatives can pursue them. Sweeping prohibitions on Arctic drilling lacks economic logic for communities favoring it.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds a masterโs degree in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia, U.K.
This commentary was first published at Real Clear Energy on March 18, 2024.
Vijay Jayarajย is a Research Associate at theย CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds a masterโs degree in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia, U.K.
The radiative effect of natural wildfire aerosol forcing alone can be said to fully cancel out the total accumulated forcing from 170 years of CO2 increases in the current climate.
The radiative effect of natural wildfire aerosol forcing alone can be said to fully cancel out the total accumulated forcing from 170 years of CO2 increases in the current climate.
It has beenย estimatedย that the total change in climate forcing (radiation imbalance) from the 1750 to present CO2 concentration increase has been 1.82 W/mยฒ.
New research suggests todayโs climate models omit an โimportant perturbation to Earthโs energy balanceโ because they fail to include the natural climate forcing potential from aerosols produced by wildfires and dust loading.
Climate models expressly assume this non-volcanic natural aerosol forcing is not present, or 0.0 W/mยฒ, even though it has been estimated that aerosol forcing from wildfire emissions alone โ which were much higher during the preindustrial period before declining to todayโs levels โ deliver a โradiative effect in the current climate of -2 W/mยฒ.โ Therefore, this natural climate forcing effect can be said to, by itself, fully cancel the surface forcing from the post-industrial CO2 increases.
Furthermore, the estimated 4 W/mยฒ uncertainty in preindustrial-to-present (1850-) aerosol climate forcing from natural wildfire emissions and dust is also over two times larger than 270 years of CO2 concentration increases (1.82 W/mยฒ since 1750). This effectively means that anthropogenic CO2 forcing is too uncertain to clearly separate from natural aerosol forcing.
1) Regarding the natural aerosol forcing uncertainty missing in the modelsโฆ
โThe uncertainty in aerosol emissions that are usually considered natural, such as from dust storms or wildfires, is likely larger and contributes to larger uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing.โ
โThere are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods.โ
โโฆdust deposition records [are] not captured in climate models. These models therefore also predict a dust-climate feedback that is indistinguishable from zero. As such, not explicitly accounting for dust changes as a radiative forcing has the net effect of omitting this potentially important perturbation to Earthโs energy balance.โ
โโฆhere we are assuming, without prior information, that the radiative forcing of any paleo-time period relative to the preindustrial is around 0.0 W/mยฒ.โ
โโฆwe do not know the emissions [from wildfires or dust] well, nor the impact of those emissions on climate. We can envision these uncertainties as mostly unknown.โ
2) Regarding the larger radiative forcing impact and uncertainty values of natural aerosols than CO2 forcingโฆ
โIn addition, wildfires and open fires represent some of the most important aerosols for direct and aerosol-cloud radiative effects, with a total radiative effect in the current climate of -2 W/mยฒ.โ
โThe total unconstrained uncertainty due to aerosol changes [since 1850] could be estimated as being 4 W/mยฒ.โ
โโฆdust [radiative forcing] was likely 2-4 times higher in the Last Glacial Maximum [~25,000 to 17,000 years ago] than it is today.โ
โFrom the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial [1850] of 4.8 W/mยฒ.โ
โPaleoclimate data from charcoal records suggest a maximum in open fires in the 1850s and a decrease since then. Satellite data show a global decrease in burned area over the last decadesโฆโ
โโฆthe 1970s is a time period of Sahel drought, and dust radiative forcing between the 1960s and 1980s changed by perhaps -0.57 ยฑ0.46 W/mยฒ.โ
The data for year 2023 will now be analysed with emphasis on 2 aspects, namely the predicted sizeable El Niรฑoย and the shenanigans concerning the data for October and November when nearly every data value changed with some changes being quite significant at over 8mm compared with annual increases of 3 to 4 mm.
We have now entered the 4th decade of measuring sea level rise using the quartet of satellites Topex and Jason 1, 2 and 3. The first 3 decades were reported in the trio of papers (Ref 1), (Ref 2) and (Ref 3). These concluded that.
1. The perceived โaccelerationsโ are mathematical accelerations occurring due to the methods of calculation, i.e. quadratic curve fitting, as used by Nerem et al [.pdf] (Ref 4) in their 2018 paper. Also, the start date of Jan 1993 also plays a major role in how the โaccelerationsโ pan out.
2. The โaccelerationsโ are now generally reducing year on year and are predicted to reach levels compatible with the long term (over 100 years) Tidal Gauge values during the next decade or two before stabilising over the next few decades.
3. A time span of 30 years is much too short a period to calculate actual accelerations with 3 or more times this period being needed.
In this paper โaccelerationsโ is used to indicate that those values are mathematically produced using twice the quadratic coefficient. Having said that the trends in values since about 2012 have settled sufficiently to make actual judgements regarding long term variation and trends.
The data for year 2023 will now be analysed with emphasis on 2 aspects, namely the predicted sizeable El Niรฑo and the shenanigans concerning the data for October and November when nearly every data value changed with some changes being quite significant at over 8mm compared with annual increases of 3 to 4 mm.
Data releases via the NASA Global Climate Change/Vital-Signs/Sea Level Rise web site were made during 2023 for January, February, April, June, October, November and December but although all were analysed, not all will be reported on. Since February 2018 the analysis of the data has taken place in a standard manner every time a new set of data has been released. Extra processing has been also done when deemed of interest. In January 2023 the NASA site added an extra column (column 13) to the data which was as column 12 but with the GIA not applied [see column definitions just below]. The diagrams appearing on the NASA website showing sea level rises also changed at this stage in using column 13 instead of column 12. The inclusion of GIA or not only affects the rate of change and not any โaccelerationโ as it is set to a constant change of about 0.24 mm/year. In all the analyses for this paper and previous papers column 12 results have been used.
The full definitions of these 2 columns are,
Column 12 smoothed (60-day Gaussian type filter) GMSL (GIA applied) variation (mm); annual and semi-annual signal removed.
Column 13 smoothed (60-day Gaussian type filter) GMSL (GIA not applied) variation (mm); annual and semi-annual signal removed.
At this stage I would like to thank Kip Hansen for his patience in reading and replying to my steady stream of emails and whose comments have helped me formulate my ideas. Kip has not agreed with all my findings and ideas, but a friendly rapport has taken place between us.
Starting with the February data the โaccelerationsโ have been calculated for increasing periods spanning the time from ย January 1993 up to the time of calculation.ย The results are shown in Figures 1 and 2.
Figure 1 compares the โaccelerationโ trend with that obtained from assuming the sea levels deviate from a straight line in a sinusoidal manner with a period of 26 years, an amplitude of +/-4.2 mm and with a suitable phase shift.ย The resulting graph of โaccelerationsโ is labelled โSinusoidalโ on Figure 1.ย This curve is not a sinusoidal curve but a portion of a โdampedโ sinusoidal curve the derivation of which is shown in the Appendix to paper 1 (Ref 1).ย Its long-term variation is shown in Figure 3 together with average Tidal Gauge value.ย In this the sinusoidal curve is converging on zero but in reality, there could be a small long-term value commensurate with the Tidal Gauge value.
At this stage it had been stated that there may be a significant El Niรฑo starting.ย Figure 4 below shows a plot of the El Niรฑo Index.ย This is a more recent plot at the end of 2023, but the February 2023 data ย coincide with just about when the Index was zero but increasing.
It was decided to try to simulate the effect of an El Niรฑo by taking the February 2023 data, which was available in May 2023, and extending the linear trend by about 5 years. Over the first 2 years a strong El Niรฑo effect was achieved by raising the increase in sea level by roughly an extra 10mm.ย Over the next year the sea level drops back to the linear trend line.ย The Simulated El Niรฑo is shown in figure 5 together with the linear trend.
A note to the purists. Every month when a new month is analysed the slope of the linear fit varies slightly therefore any actual residual sea level (actual minus linear value) or sinusoidal variation is measured to a slightly modified linear line. As the slopes are generally in the range 3.2 to 3.5 mm/year this is considered acceptable as being within โengineering toleranceโ and being a retired engineer, I can sleep at night with this situation.
The modified data were analysed, and โaccelerationsโ determined.ย The results are shown in Figure 6.ย The effect of the El Niรฑo is to increase the โaccelerationโ temporary by about .01mm/year2ย over the next 12 months or so and then resume a downwards trend.ย Interestingly two previous El Niรฑos in 2015/16 (strong) and 2018/19 (moderate) show up as wiggles on the blue curve.ย The associated reduction in โaccelerationโ since 2020 is also shown in Figure 7
The next set of data to be analysed is for June 2023 resulting in Figures 8 and 9 which indicate a small influence of the El Niรฑo starting.
When the October data were analysed, it was clear that there had been a dramatic change in the data readings as shown in figure 10.ย
Figure 11 below shows the differences between the October 2023 data and the June 2023 data.ย Over the first 10 years there had been increases in the October data of up to over 8mm.ย For the next 13 years the values stayed roughly the same with a reduction of about 2 mm over the last 7 years.ย The kick up at the end is mainly due to the El Niรฑo.ย The consequences of these changes were to reduce the slope by about 0.3 mm/year and increase the โaccelerationโ by about 0.008 mm/year2.ย As of now no explanation has been found as to why these changes occurred.ย The last time any changesย had occurred was in August 2021 with those changes varying between -2.5 mm and 0.5 mm resulting in little change in slope and a reduction in โaccelerationโ of 0.004mm/year2.ย
The November and December data release were anticipated with some trepidation and then analysed.ย The changes from June 2023 to November 2023 were lower as shown in Figure 12 with a maximum change now being about 5mm.ย From June 2023 this resulted in a reduction in slope of about 0.2mm/year and a reduction in โaccelerationโ of about 0.003mm/year2.
At this stage it was decided to create a combined plot of the November data showing the NASA data and the curve produced by combining the linear line with the sinusoidal variation, Figure 13.
Figures 14 and 15 show the latest (December 2023) plots of โaccelerationโ and reduction in โaccelerationโ since the 2020 peak.
A final plot, Figure 16, shows a comparison of โaccelerationsโ since Jan 2020 based on the February 2023 data with the added El Niรฑo simulation and the December 2023 data.ย If the 2024 trend follows the simulation trends the โaccelerationsโ will peak at about .085 mm/year2ย in the late summer of 2024 and quickly start reducing at nearly 0.01mm/year2ย until the next significant El Niรฑo appears.ย
Who doesnโt like a prediction? Iโve put my head up over the wall but at 86, with no agenda, reputation, University role or job to keep itโs nice to have that freedom. Just have to keep taking the tablets to see it all come to fruition!!
One conclusion is that the โaccelerationsโ as calculated are not the harbingers of Doom and Gloom that many Climate Scientists, the BBC and the Guardian Paper portray. These โaccelerationsโ may just be mathematical quirks and not of any major physical significance, but it could be revealing to try to match them and predict future variation especially over the next 10 years or so.
I have facilitated the publication of this essay, the fourth of Dr. Welchโs contributions here. Dr. Welch and I have had a long-standing continuing conversation, over several years, about sea level rise [SLR] rates and the assertion by some, Nerem et al. and others, that sea level rise is accelerating (meaning for SLR, rising faster and faster). NASA/NOAA likewise call the change in the rate seen when the satellite-calculated SLR is tacked on to the global tide gauge record at the year 1996 โaccelerating SLRโ. As with all numerical data that can possibly be associated with Climate Change, there is and has been a lot of fiddling with the methods, calculations, and resulting numbers. Thus, with sea level data, for which the annual changes are small compared to the magnitude of the confounding factors, little if anything can be ascertained with any degree of scientific certainty.
Long-time readers will remember that I am not a fan of the SLR Acceleration topic โ for reasons stated above.
Dr. Welchโs take on acceleration is as valid as any other out there.
Earthโs sea levels are rising โ they will continue to rise for all the reasons they have risen for the last few hundred years. It is my opinion that they will continue to rise at the same rate โ 2 or maybe even 3 mm per year โ into the future. This slow steady rise can and will be a problem for highly developed low-lying areas. Building within 8 inches of the todayโs sea level โ mean high tide โ is and was always exceptionally foolish.
My thanks to Dr. Alan Welch for his continuing efforts to keep a close eye on the topic which allows him to catch repeated alterations of the data sets being used.
Dr. Welch is a guest here, please treat him like you would a guest in your own home.
The Associated Press (AP) ran a story claiming that a โred alertโ was issued by The United Nations (UN) weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which claimed that global temperature in 2023 set new records due to human caused climate change, and expectations that new record high temperatures would be set in 2024. The story is misleading at the very least. It is based on a false premise, because the UN didnโt reference historical nor current real-world data before issuing the report that the AP story touted.
The Associated Press (AP) ran a story claiming that a โred alertโ was issued by The United Nations (UN) weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which claimed that global temperature in 2023 set new records due to human caused climate change, and expectations that new record high temperatures would be set in 2024. The story is misleading at the very least. It is based on a false premise, because the UN didnโt reference historical nor current real-world data before issuing the report that the AP story touted.
The U.N. weather agency is sounding a โred alertโ about global warming, citing record-smashing increases last year in greenhouse gases, land and water temperatures, and melting of glaciers and sea ice, and is warning that the worldโs efforts to reverse the trend have been inadequate.
The World Meteorological Organization said there is a โhigh probabilityโ that 2024 will be another record-hot year.
The APโs story is based upon the โState of the Climateโ report issued by the UN, which states:
The WMO report confirmed that 2023 was the warmest year on record, with the global average near-surface temperature at 1.45 ยฐCelsius (with a margin of uncertainty of ยฑ 0.12 ยฐC) above the pre-industrial baseline. It was the warmest ten-year period on record.
The shift from La Niรฑa to El Niรฑo conditions in the middle of 2023 contributed to the rapid rise in temperature from 2022 to 2023.
That APโs claim of a high probability of a record warm year is already headed towards low probability territory even as the statement was issued. Had the WMO acted like meteorologists rather than climate alarm advocates, they would have noticed an inconvenient fact that never made their report: the El Niรฑo which โcontributed to the rapid rise in temperature from 2022 to 2023,โ is on the way to the cooler La Niรฑa phase already. This is shown in the data informing the Figure 1 belowย from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
Figure 1, actual and forecast data for sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean region known as 3.4, which is scientifically accepted as an El Niรฑo indicator. Graph plotted by NOAAโs Climate Prediction Center.
In Figure 1 above, the solid black line is an indicator of the measured sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific Ocean. Notice that the peak occurred during the period of November 2023 through December and January of 2024. That was when the El Niรฑo conditions in the Pacific Ocean were at their warmest. However, since then ocean temperatures have started to significantly decline and the forecast temperatures through October and November of 2024 are about 4.2ยฐ below the peak temperature during the El Niรฑo event.
Between the measured decline in SST temperature already and the forecast into 2024 this suggests that the claim of โhigh probability that 2024 will be another record-hot year,โ is almost certain to prove false.
According to NOAA: โEl Niรฑo is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which can significantly influence weather patterns, ocean conditions, and marine fisheries worldwide.โ
In fact, records going as far back as 1876 show that many similarly sized El Niรฑo events occurred, as seen in figure 2, below:
Figure 2: Southern Oscillation Index timeseries from 1876 to October 2023. The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Niรฑo. The red events are generally associated with El Niรฑo and the blue events with La Niรฑa. CC BY-SA 4.0 Rainald62 via Wikipedia. Data Source: ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/soiplaintext.html
Given that we only have about 100 years of good temperature records for the globe and because the earth is billions of years old with naturally occurring events that we have no record of, itโs certainly likely that particularly warm years caused by El Nino conditions have gone unnoticed and unrecorded. Creating a โred alertโ alarm over a single year of warm temperatures driven by El Niรฑo, especially since indicators show the driver is now on the way down, is not only irrational, itโs an irresponsible red herring.
It certainly appears that 2024 will in fact be cooler than 2023. Given the WMOโs and the mediaโs past behavior, itโs highly unlikely that the AP will issue a retraction or even a story mentioning that the forecast made by the U.N. failed to materialize in late 2024.
This is just another shameful episode of the media regurgitating irresponsible climate alarm claims without bothering to check the facts.
Todayโs misinformation from Justin Rowlatt:
You may have noticed that Easter eggs are more expensive this year.
But did you know that climate change is one of the reasons?
You may have noticed that Easter eggs are more expensive this year.
But did you know that climate change is one of the reasons?
Most chocolate is made from cocoa grown in West Africa, but a humid heatwave has blasted the crops and massively cut yields.
Experts say that human-induced climate change has made the extreme heat 10 times more likely.
Which? found some popular eggs have risen in price by 50% or more.
The shortage of cocoa resulting from the heatwave has seen prices soar to almost $8,500 (ยฃ6,700) a tonne this week.
Cocoa trees are particularly vulnerable to changes in the climate. They only grow in a narrow band of about 20 degrees latitude around the Equator.
Most global production is concentrated in West Africa. In 2023, 58m kilogrammes of cocoa beans worth ยฃ127m were imported to the UK from Ivory Coast and Ghana with 85% of the UKโs cocoa beans sourced from Ivory Coast.
However, severe drought conditions have hit the West Africa region since February this year.
This has been caused by temperatures that soared above 40C, breaking records in countries including the Ivory Coast and Ghana.
It was these exceptionally high temperatures that the World Weather Attribution group, based at Imperial College London, found were made 10 times more likely by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
Their study found that unless the world quickly reduces fossil fuel use, West Africa will experience similar heatwaves about every two years.
“There were reports from farmers in Ivory Coast that the heat weakened the cocoa crop,” according to one of the authors of the study, Izadine Pinto, from the University of Cape Town.
He said the high temperatures increased the rate of evaporation, leaving the crops without sufficient moisture.
Iโm not sure how you can have a humid drought, but this is Rowlatt we are talking about, who has no interest in actual facts!
Maybe somebody ought to tell him that weather attribution models are just that, models, and they should not be confused with the real world.
But cocoa prices have always been notoriously volatile, in large part due to variations in weather. 2016/17, for instance was a bumper harvest, and prices dropped through the floor:
But over time, cocoa production has been steadily increasing, making a nonsense of Rowlattโs climate doom.
But there are fundamental problems in West Africa, and they have nothing to do with climate change, as Dr Michael Odijie, an economist who specialises in Africa affairs, points out:
A number of long-term structural issues have beset cocoa farming in west Africa for decades. They shouldnโt be overshadowed by concerns with short-term problems.
The first is the declining availability of forest land and its connection to increasing production costs.
Over the last two decades, depletion of forest land has led farmers to turn to grasslands for replanting cocoa plants. This requires extensive land preparation, regular weeding around the cocoa trees, pruning, and the application of fertilisers and pesticides. Whatโs more, the plants are highly susceptible to disease. All these things result in increased labour costs.
None of these additional burdens have been incorporated into the pricing for sustainable cocoa production. In light of the new cost structure, cocoa beans have been undervalued for decades. Farmers have become poorer and are exploring alternative sources of livelihood.
On episode 103 of The Climate Realism Show, we welcome Tom Nelson, producer of the new film “Climate: The Movie.” The film exposes the climate alarm as an invented scare without any basis in science. It emphatically counters the claim that current temperatures and levels of atmospheric CO2 are unusually and worryingly high. In fact, we are currently in an ice age and there is no evidence that changing levels of CO2 (it has changed many times) has ever โdrivenโ climate change in the past.
Climate Change Roundtable is now The Climate Realism Show. The same great climate news and analysis from The Heartland Institute’s world-class climate and energy experts, but a snazzy new name that gets right to the heart of what it is about.
On episode 103 of The Climate Realism Show, we welcome Tom Nelson, producer of the new film “Climate: The Movie.” The film exposes the climate alarm as an invented scare without any basis in science. It emphatically counters the claim that current temperatures and levels of atmospheric CO2 are unusually and worryingly high. In fact, we are currently in an ice age and there is no evidence that changing levels of CO2 (it has changed many times) has ever โdrivenโ climate change in the past.
The Heartland Instituteโs Anthony Watts is host, H. Sterling Burnett and Linnea Lueken will break down the movie and it’s impact with Nelson.
Plus, we will also have our regular weekly feature, Crazy Climate News – where we look at some of the most absurd climate alarmism stories of the week. Join us LIVE at 1 p.m. ET (12 p.m. CT) to get the latest news and join the chat to ask questions of your own.
The planet-saving cars that are being forced upon us have another catch โ they might make you vomit. Apparently, motion sickness is โa thingโ for EVโs, not that our public broadcaster would mention it in the regular adverts they run toย tell us how wonderful EVโs are โwith ridiculous savings!โ.ย
The planet-saving cars that are being forced upon us have another catch โ they might make you vomit. Apparently, motion sickness is โa thingโ for EVโs, not that our public broadcaster would mention it in the regular adverts they run to tell us how wonderful EVโs are โwith ridiculous savings!โ. Apparently the silent sudden acceleration of an EV is leaving some stomachs in a lurch โ and some adults, kids and even dogs are throwing up.
Another user said: โI drive in an electric vehicle a lot, and Iโve found that regenerative braking absolutely makes me motion sick. Iโm not always driving, so I donโt always have control of how itโs being driven, so other peopleโs driving really makes me sickโฆ I really need to find a solution fastโ.
Some drivers also reported their electric cars making their pets sick too. โSince [buying] the Tesla, [my dog] throws up in it almost every timeโฆโ
The theory is that EVโs are too quiet, too fast, and have too few cues to warn our insides to prepare for motion. But who knows, perhaps sitting inside a giant electromagnetic field triggers a queasy feeling too?
Shhh!
The problem (that no one mentioned in public) is apparently already so well known in the industry that car manufacturers are researching ways to reduce it. (Where are our journalists?)
Solutions include driving the car more like a combustion engine car and switching down the regenerative braking, both of which reduce the range of the EV (oโ the irony).
Manufacturers like Honda are looking to squash carsickness by revising their power mapping for a smoother ride at low speeds. Honda is on the case with its e:Ny1 (which is not available in Australia at this time) by changing their throttle map to emulate an acceleration similar to an ICE vehicle.
Adding that feeling of throttle lag that you get from internal combustion vehicles will help ease discomfort for those who arenโt used to the immediate torque of an EV, likely at the cost of some performance.
Hyundai is even adding fake engine noises to mimic normal cars.
Other brands, like Hyundai with the Ioniq 5 N, are adding fake engine sounds that are linked to the pedal on their EVs and even adding fake flappy paddles that mimic gear changes. While this is just a bit of fun for the owners, it could actually help combat some of the motion sickness felt in an EV.
This story is more about the media than about EVs. Itโs hard to know how serious this problem is (where are those studies?). Perhaps it only affects a small percent of the population. But whatever it is, we know itโs worse than our normal cars. If there was any evidence that EVโs reduced motion-sickness by even 2%, the ABC and BBC would make it prime time news.
The United States produced more crude oil than any nation at any time, according to our International Energy Statistics, for the past six years in a row. Crude oil production in the United States, including condensate, averaged 12.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, breaking the previous U.S. and global record of 12.3 million b/d, set in 2019. Average monthly U.S. crude oil production established a monthly record high in December 2023 at more than 13.3 million b/d.
The crude oil production record in the United States in 2023 is unlikely to be broken in any other country in the near term because no other country has reached production capacity of 13.0 million b/d. Saudi Arabiaโs state-owned Saudi Aramco recently scrapped plans to increase production capacity to 13.0 million b/d by 2027.
Together, the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia accounted for 40% (32.8 million b/d) of global oil production in 2023. These three countries have produced more oil than any others since 1971 (counting production in the Russian Federation of the Soviet Union prior to 1991), although the top spot has shifted among them over the past five decades. By comparison, the next three largest producing countriesโCanada, Iraq, and Chinaโcombined produced 13.1 million b/d in 2023, only slightly more than what was produced in the United States alone.
After peaking at 9.6 million b/d in 1970, annual U.S. crude oil production flattened and then generally declined for decades to a low of 5.0 million b/d in 2008. Crude oil production in the United States began increasing again in 2009, as producers increasingly applied hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques, and has increased steadily since. The only exception to U.S. production growth since 2009 was in 2020 and 2021, when demand and prices decreased because of the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In recent years, crude oil production in the Permian Basin (in western Texas and eastern New Mexico) drove the increases in total crude oil and natural gas production in the United States.
Russia was the country with the most crude oil production in 2017, but production growth in Russia has since lagged behind the United States. Average annual production in Russia peaked in 2019 at 10.8 million b/d, when it trailed the United States by 1.4 million b/d. More recently, Russia was among the OPEC+ countries that announced production cuts in November 2022, and in February 2023, it separately announced additional voluntary cuts of 500,000 b/d. Although voluntary cuts have reduced recent production in Russia, we believe sanctions and voluntary actions by companies in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine have been the primary cause of the cuts. Actual cuts to production appear to be smaller than anticipated, however, and we estimate that production in Russia declined by only 200,000 b/d in 2023.
Average annual production in Saudi Arabia peaked in 2022 at 10.6 million b/d, which was 1.3 million b/d less than in the United States that year. In 2023, crude oil production in Saudi Arabia declined by about 900,000 b/d because of OPEC+ cuts and further voluntary cuts Saudi Arabia made to offset weaker demand growth. Production in Saudi Arabia could not exceed the 2023 production volume in the United States because state-owned Saudi Aramcoโs stated production capacity is 12.0 million b/d, with about 300,000 b/d of additional capacity from its share of the Neutral Zone area shared with Kuwait.
The most prolific oil producing region, the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, has accounted for the vast majority of the production increase. This has been largely due to improvements in oil recovery from both new and existing wellsโฆ
While virtually all of the Permian Basin of Texas is under private or state lands, where Biden has no control, much of New Mexicoโs portion of the Permian Basin is on Federal lands. Democrats at the state and Federal levels have been slowly restricting leasing and drilling in New Mexico:
Decisions by federal and state officials last week will limit where New Mexicoโs powerful oil and gas industry is able to drill.
On Friday, Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland announced that the department will soon ban new oil and gas leases on more than 330,000 acres of public lands within a 10-mile radius of Chaco Culture National Historical Park โ a UNESCO World Heritage Site of deep cultural importance to the regionโs Pueblo and Tribal nations.
The day before, the New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands instituted a moratorium on new oil and gas leases on state trust lands within one mile of schools, daycare centers, and sporting fields used by students. Grist
Ironically, oil and gas revenues currently account for about 1/3 of the stateโs education budget.
Gulf of Mexico
The second most prolific region, the Federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico, has seen no growth in production due to the Biden maladministrationโs war on oil & gas leasing, permitting and drillingโฆ
Offshore oil and gas permitting plummets to 2-decade low under Biden
Without stable permitting and leasing, producers may leave for โregions with a more predictable regulatory environment,โ industry group says
Offshore oil and gas permitting under President Biden has fallen to a low the energy industry has not experienced since the Bush administration two decades ago, according to federal data reviewed by Fox News Digital.
Since January 2021, when Biden took office, the federal government has approved applications for permit to drill on just 157 new wells, according to the data compiled by Department of the Interiorโs Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). The figure represents a 29% decline compared to the same period under the Trump administration and a 55% decline compared to the same period under the Obama administration.
โPolicymakers should leverage the Gulf of Mexico to help meet growing global oil demand,โ Erik Milito, the president of the National Ocean Industries Association, told Fox News Digital. โThe Gulf of Mexico is a prime example of doing more with less.โ
โWe were producing more than 2 million barrels of oil per day in the Gulf of Mexico prior to the pandemic, despite the number of active lease blocks being much lower than they were 5, 10, or 15 years ago,โ he continued. โWe produce a massive amount of energy with a small footprint. However, bottlenecking the permitting process is a surefire way to discourage the success of the region despite growing global demand.โ
Riceโs whales are primarily located in the yellow and back outlined area in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, an area off-limits to oil & gas exploration. The Biden administration attempted to illegally remove the โRiceโs Whale Expanded Areaโ (dark blue area on map below) from this, and all future, lease sales.
When Lease Sale 261 was finally held after numerous court orders, it drew the most interest since 2015.
Lease Sale 261 brings in more than $382 million in high bids
Dec. 20, 2023
Lease Sale 261 reported to be the largest oil and gas lease auction since 2015.
Offshore staff
NEW ORLEANS โ The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) reports that Lease Sale 261 generated $382,168,507 in high bids for 311 tracts covering 1.7 million acres in federal waters in the US Gulf of Mexico.
BOEM says that a total of 26 companies participated in the lease sale, submitting 352 bids totaling $441,896,332.
Among the winners were Chevron, BP, Shell, Equinor, Repsol, Woodside Energy, Occidental Petroleum, Murphy Oil, Talos Energy, and Kosmos Energy.
While the lamestream media incessantly tries to credit Biden for record US oil production, the fact is that his maladministration has routinely flouted the law in their treasonous war on the US oil & gas industryโฆ
Biden: I Wanted โto Stop All Drillingโ on the Coasts and Gulf, Got Blocked by Courts
During an interview with The Weather Channel that is set to air on Wednesday, a portion of which aired on Tuesday, President Joe Biden said that he โwanted to stop all drilling on the East Coast and the West Coast and in the Gulfโ but was blocked by the courts from doing so.
Hot days in the capital Juba โ five degrees north of the equator โ are for some a big โclimate changeโ story, but it is difficult to read into theย World Bank dataย the interpretation that Taylor wants to publicise. In fact it is impossible, since the data clearly show that average South Sudan temperatures peak in March and then fall away through the wet monsoon โsummerโ months.
South Sudan is experiencing โextreme heatwavesโ and is shutting schools and cutting power,ย reports BBC meteorologistย Matt Taylor. โIt is exceptionally early for South Sudan to experience such heat โ temperatures often exceed 43ยฐC but only in the summer months, according to the World Bankโs Climate Change portal,โ he states. Hot days in the capital Juba โ five degrees north of the equator โ are for some a big โclimate changeโ story, but it is difficult to read into theย World Bank dataย the interpretation that Taylor wants to publicise. In fact it is impossible, since the data clearly show that average South Sudan temperatures peak in March and then fall away through the wet monsoon โsummerโ months.
Quite how Taylor can draw the conclusion from the above World Bank graph that it is โexceptionally earlyโ for South Sudan to experience such heat, in a place where temperatures often exceed 45ยฐC โbut only in the summer monthsโ, is not clear. Anybody else looking at the graph would draw the opposite conclusion. Perhaps Taylor is unclear on the difference between rainfall totals (the blue bars, which do peak in the โsummer monthsโ) and average temperatures. He also seems to be unaware that South Sudan is equatorial so does not have a โsummerโ and certainly not in June through August.
In fact the โheatwavesโ in South Sudan drew headlines in other climate-crazed mainstream media. Theย New York Timesย reportedย on March 20th that: โClimate change already worsened floods and droughts in the young nation. Now soaring temperatures are forecast for two weeks.โ Both the BBC andย NYTย write about temperatures soaring well past 40ยฐC, but, as is often the case, we must count the spoons and consult the original sources when dealing with such unreliable propagandists.
According to the Time and Data website, in the five days up to March 21st the temperature in Juba only once went over 40ยฐC at midday. Since a 42ยฐC high last Sunday, the temperature has dropped up to 6ยฐC. Hot, it would seem, but not exceptional at the equator.
But the BBC was in full disaster mode with Taylor reporting that South Sudan is the latest in a โlong-lineโ of countries to experience blistering and, in many cases, record-breaking heat. โThis heat is very serious, and itโs really affecting our work,โ says Wadcom Saviour Lazarus, who is said to run an NGO. โBecause of this heat we are not able to move from one place to another,โ he adds. Juba resident Ayaa Winnie Eric is said to take โlots of water to keep me hydratedโ. Light clothes are worn and walking in the hot sun is avoided.
How did people cope in the past living right next to the equator? Of course they didnโt have โclimate changeโ alarmism to cope with as another World Bank graph below demonstrates.
The graph plots the temperatures for South Sudan going back to 1901. On a five year smoothing average, the temperature in 2022 at 27.64ยฐC was only 0.41ยฐC higher than 121 years ago. Interestingly, since 2007 the average temperature has actually dropped a full degree centigrade from 28.64ยฐC to 27.64ยฐC. Looking at the cyclical nature of the graph, it is difficult to see a correlation with trace atmospheric carbon dioxide which has of course risen throughout the period.
The Taylor story is another crass example of the constant fearmongering undertaken in the mainstream media to nudge populations to accept the collectivist Net Zero project. In this case it can only be assumed that readers will take the hint over devasting human-caused climate change and not look at the underlying data. South Sudan is a hot, under-developed African country that has been racked by civil war. Infrastructure is basic, electricity and air conditioning frequently fails. Meanwhile, the population of Juba has risen tenfold since the 1970s to reach half a million.
The investigative journalist Paul Homewood is an excellent source for the constant stream of BBC climate howlers. In fact he runs an annual review of some of the best BBC bloopers. How we laugh when we read his latest publication noting that โextreme weather linked to climate changeโ has eroded the soft sand cliffs of the Norfolk village of Happishburgh. No mention, needless to say, of the findings of the British Geological Society that it is likely the Norfolk cliffs have been โeroding at the present rate for about the last 5,000 yearsโ. Who can forget the report that bee-eater birds have turned up in Norfolk, which was reported to be a worrying sign, โunmissableโ no less, of how our climate is changing. It was a shame to spoil the story by noting that bee-eaters have been frequent visitors to England in the past. One archive alone lists 80 sightings between 1793 and 1957.
No doubt, to be contโd.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Scepticโs Environment Editor.
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