Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
Around 100 people took the streets of Morro Bay marching from the Veteran’s Memorial Building to the South T-Pier and along the Embarcadero with signs saying they don’t want wind farms along the Central Coast.
Golden State Wind is a floating offshore wind project in the early stages of development, located in the Morro Bay Wind Energy Area off California’s central coast.
When fully developed, the Project is expected to generate up to 2 gigawatts (GW) of clean offshore wind energy, which is enough to power about 900,000 homes.
Golden State Wind will help California meet its 100% clean electricity by 2045 goal and will bring the US closer to meeting its target of deploying 15 GW of floating offshore wind generation by 2035.
Several offshore wind developers want to build the state’s first farms off the coast here, projects that are needed for California — and the White House — to reach decarbonization goals.
But this summer, the administration is also likely to designate the Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary in coastal waters that surround Morro Bay — a plan that the offshore wind industry says blocks their access to the grid.
This picturesque bay located four hours south of San Francisco is at the center of an election year conflict for the Biden administration that could threaten its offshore wind ambitions on the West Coast.
Several offshore wind developers want to build the state’s first farms off the coast here, projects that are needed for California — and the White House — to reach decarbonization goals.
But this summer, the administration is also likely to designate the Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary in coastal waters that surround Morro Bay — a plan that the offshore wind industry says blocks their access to the grid.
Equinor, Golden State Wind and Invenergy California Offshore — companies with offshore wind farms planned off the bay — hope to carve out guaranteed paths for their power lines to reach shore, when the NOAA finalizes the sanctuary in coming months. Proponents of the sanctuary, meanwhile, don’t want to reduce its size and are pushing for a requirement that wind developers seek permits for power lines through protected waters.
Around 100 people took the streets of Morro Bay marching from the Veteran’s Memorial Building to the South T-Pier and along the Embarcadero with signs saying they don’t want wind farms along the Central Coast. Two boats also took part in the action along the water next to the South T-Pier as people cheered on.
Heat pumps, for example, weren’t just supposed to decarbonise home heating and thereby save the planet; they were all going to slash our bills as we switched from expensive gas to cheap-as-chips renewable energy from wind and solar farms.
Illustration 3d
Expensive and unreliable, heat pumps are a nightmare for consumers. It’s little wonder the government has resorted to bribes.
Has there ever been a more pernicious lie spread by government and lobbyists than the claim that net zero will save us money? The Telegraph has the story.
Heat pumps, for example, weren’t just supposed to decarbonise home heating and thereby save the planet; they were all going to slash our bills as we switched from expensive gas to cheap-as-chips renewable energy from wind and solar farms.
The narrative was always flawed: if heat pumps really did promise to save us money the government would hardly need to push them at us, offering grants of £7500 through its Boiler Upgrade Scheme.
As today’s National Audit Office report all but confirms, people are not falling for the bait. The Boiler Upgrade scheme has been an expensive failure, with consumers seeing through the guff and working out that dumping their gas boiler for a heat pump is not going to save them a bean; on the contrary, it will cost them more to install and more to run.
Remember how government grants were supposed to allow the industry to reach a scale at which prices would start to tumble?
It still costs four times as much to replace a gas boiler with a heat pump than with a like-for-like replacement.
True, there are those aforementioned £7500 grants available for early-adopters, so it might be possible if you have a small property to fit a heat pump at no greater cost than a gas boiler. But grants are not free money: we are all paying for them through our taxes and energy bills.
If the government ended up having to bung all 30 million UK households grants of £7500 to fit a heat pump, it would add over £200 billion to annual public spending.
Perched on sea-ice off Canada’s northern coast, parka-clad scientists watch saltwater pump out over the frozen ocean.
Their goal? To slow global warming.
As sea-ice vanishes, the dark ocean surface can absorb more of the Sun’s energy, which accelerates warming. So the researchers want to thicken it to stop it melting away.
Welcome to the wackier side of geoengineering – deliberately intervening in the Earth’s climate system to try to counteract the damage we have done to it.
They are drilling a hole in the sea-ice that naturally forms in winter, and pumping around 1,000 litres of seawater per minute across the surface.
…
The ultimate goal of the Arctic experiment is to thicken enough sea-ice to slow or even reverse the melting already seen, says Dr Shaun Fitzgerald, whose team at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for Climate Repair is behind the project.
At least the BBC talked to some semi-sane people.
“It is quite insane in my opinion that this could be done at scale for the entire Arctic Ocean,” says Julienne Stroeve, a professor of polar observation and modelling at University College London.
…
And then there’s the huge logistical challenge of scaling the project up to a meaningful level – one estimate suggests that you could need about 10 million wind-powered pumps to thicken sea-ice across just a tenth of the Arctic.
These morons are discussing placing billions upon billions of dollars worth of heavy mechanical infrastructure on drifting impermanent ice floes.
I’m having difficulty thinking of an imaginary plan that is more stupid that this one.
Anyone who watched the movie Snowpiercer, set in 2031, or the follow-up TV series will recall its premise: an experiment to arrest climate change with a stratospheric aerosol injection goes hopelessly wrong and ends up with the world condemned to a new ice age.
Anyone who watched the movie Snowpiercer, set in 2031, or the follow-up TV series will recall its premise: an experiment to arrest climate change with a stratospheric aerosol injection goes hopelessly wrong and ends up with the world condemned to a new ice age.
Perhaps that’s what’s inspired Cambridge University’s Centre for Climate Repair. It has a team in the high Arctic busily experimenting with spraying seawater over a hole they’ve cut in the ice. The BBC’s Mark Poynting has the story:
The ultimate goal of the Arctic experiment is to thicken enough sea ice to slow or even reverse the melting already seen, says Dr Shaun Fitzgerald, whose team at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for Climate Repair is behind the project.
Will it work or is it, as one scientist put it, “quite insane”?
“We don’t actually know enough to determine whether this is a good idea or bad idea,” admits Dr. Fitzgerald. They are drilling a hole in the sea ice that naturally forms in winter and pumping around 1,000 litres of seawater per minute across the surface.
Exposed to the cold winter air, this seawater quickly freezes, helping to thicken the ice on top. The water also compacts the snow. As fresh snow acts as a good insulating layer, now ice can also form more easily on the underside in contact with the ocean.
Like most self-respecting climate change panic projects, cranking this up to scale will have vast energy needs, to say nothing of manufacturing the pumps, quite apart from the possibility that the whole scheme might be insane:
“The vast majority of polar scientists think this is never going to work out,” cautions Martin Siegert, an experienced glaciologist at the University of Exeter, who is not involved in the project.
One issue is that the saltier ice may melt more quickly in the summer.
And then there’s the huge logistical challenge of scaling the project up to a meaningful level – one estimate suggests that you could need about 10 million wind-powered pumps to thicken sea-ice across just a tenth of the Arctic.
A number of scientists – including the UN’s climate and weather bodies – have warned that these approaches could pose grave risks, including disrupting global weather patterns. Many researchers want to see them banned altogether.
“Geoengineering technologies come with enormous uncertainties and create novel risks for ecosystems and people,” explains Lili Fuhr, director of the Fossil Economy Programme at the Centre for International Environmental Law.
But if that scepticism sounds reassuring, don’t be fooled. Some of the critics remain dedicated to total decarbonisation. However, perhaps what we’re seeing here is the climate change industry beginning to fragment into feuding factions?
Still, surely all we need to do is ‘follow the science’. What could possibly go wrong?
The Arctic researchers are acutely aware of these concerns. They stress that they are simply testing the technology, and wouldn’t unleash it more widely until the risks are better known.
Draft guidance due to be published on Sunday will state that authorities must gain support from local residents, businesses and emergency services before introducing new LTNs.
The guidance, which will also require councils to “regularly review” existing schemes to monitor levels of local support, says: “Schemes should be adjusted if this reveals issues with performance and removed if they are shown to have failed to deliver as expected, including a failure to demonstrate local support.”
The Department for Transport (DfT) has also said new guidance will address concerns over bus lanes that cause delays, making sure that they only operate when that makes sense, such as when traffic is heavy enough to delay buses.
The statutory guidance on LTNs, due to come into force in the summer, is part of the plan for drivers drawn up after Rishi Sunak used an interview with The Telegraph last summer to launch a review of road policies and promise drivers that he was “on their side”.
His intervention came amid fears that motorists were being punished by schemes such as LTNs, which have become increasingly prevalent since the Covid pandemic. The schemes aim to reduce traffic in residential areas and cut carbon emissions.
Separately, the Government said it was “strengthening” guidance on applying new 20mph speed limits to make it clear that such restrictions should be reserved for “sensible and appropriate areas only”, such as roads outside schools, “with safety and local support at the heart of the decision”.
Ministers will make it clear that failing to adhere to the separate guidance on both LTNs and 20mph limits could lead to future Government funding being withdrawn.
The Government is planning to launch a consultation on further measures that could be taken against councils flouting guidance on the issue, including removing their access to the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) data used to enforce LTNs via camera footage.
The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, which became law on June 29, 2021, “enshrines in legislation Canada’s commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.”
The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, which became law on June 29, 2021, “enshrines in legislation Canada’s commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.” To date most of the federal government’s focus has been on its 2030 Paris Agreement target of reaching CO2eq emission reductions 40-45% below the 2005 level of 741 Mt (i.e., 2030 net emissions of 445-408 Mt).
The government’s first attempt to determine what it would take to reach net-zero was a report released in December 2021 by the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) called Canada’s Energy Future 2021: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2021). EF2021 did not explicitly model a net-zero future, which drew criticism and resulted in a directive from the Minister of Natural Resources to the CER to “provide even more data in line with Canada achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.”
Global Net-zero – Canada achieves net-zero by 2050, and the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Canada Net-zero – Canada achieves net-zero by 2050, and the rest of the world reduces emissions, but not enough to limit global warming to 1.5°C. This affects some of the international factors that are inputs to the CER’s models.
Current measures – No net-zero as there is limited action in Canada beyond current measures and also limited future global climate action.
Figure 1 (Fig. A.2 of EF2023) illustrates the iterative approach for the Global Net-zero and Canada Net-zero scenarios, which used the CER’s Energy Futures Modeling System. The main input driver for the modeling is what the CER refers to as the “aggregate cost of carbon,” which represents a hypothetical suite of policies, regulations and programs assumed for the 2030-2050 period. In the Global Net-zero scenario this means an inflation-adjusted (i.e., 2022$) $330/t of CO2eq in 2050, and $380/t for the Canada Net-zero scenario (Table A1.1).
Fig. 1
Figure 2, copied from Fig. ES.2 of EF2023’s Executive Summary, shows one of the modeling results (end-use energy use by fuel type.) As explained in the Energy Demand section total end-use energy demand for the two Net-zero scenarios declines by 22% and 12%, from 2021 to 2050, despite continuing economic and population growth. This decline is largely due to “switching to different technologies and fuels, more efficient use of energy, and lower activity levels in some sectors.” The CER assumed real annual GDP growth of 1.4% for the Global Net-zero scenario and slightly higher in the other two scenarios; see p.112 of the full report.
Fig. 2
Figure 3 (Fig. R.4 of EF2023) depicts the emissions modeled in the Global Net-zero scenario. Offsetting the positive emissions in 2050 requires “negative emissions” from electricity (-37 Mt); hydrogen production (-21 Mt); direct air capture (-46 Mt); and land use, land-use change, and forestry (-50 Mt). Table R.1 of EF2023 provides explanations for each of the nine economic sectors modeled.
Fig. 3
The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, “one of Canada’s leading progressive voices in public policy debates,” took note of EF2023 and commissionedDavid Hughes to use it as the basis for a report, released on February 8, 2024 and called Getting to Net-Zero in Canada – Scale of the problem, government projections and daunting challenges (full 64-page report and 6-page summary). This article in The Tyee quotes Mr. Hughes’ reason for writing Getting to Net-Zero: “My objective is to provide policymakers and the public with an understanding of the scale of the problem so they can appreciate the scale that any solution is going to have to take. Only with understanding and buy-in can the necessary changes be implemented.” Figure 4, taken from Mr. Hughes’ report, illustrates the “scale of the problem.”
Fig. 4
The Discussion and Implications chapter of the full Getting to Net-Zero report (pp.56-61) states that, in the CER’s Net-zero scenarios, per capita end use of energy must be reduced 33-41% and lists a number of unrealistic outcomes (e.g., wind and solar generation must increase 10-12 times and direct air capture 4,600-5,500 times current world capacity), together with optimistic assumptions about future cost reductions in carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS), direct air capture, wind and solar capital costs, hydrogen production, battery storage, and others (see Table A2.1 of EF2023). As The Tyeearticle puts it, the CER “largely assumes in its successful scenarios that the cost of renewables, hydrogen, batteries, CCS and nuclear power will magically go down,” while in reality inflationary pressure is increasing these costs.
The key conclusions from Getting to Net-Zero (pp.62-63):
Canada’s March 2023 policies would see only a 16% reduction in emissions below 2022 levels by 2050 and must be greatly strengthened.
To offset the relatively large proportion of fossil fuels in 2050 end-use energy demand, the CER over-relied on CCUS (33 to 38-fold increase), and a thousand-fold increase in direct air capture. This is a high-risk strategy. Instead, Mr. Hughes recommends reducing end-use demand for fossil fuels.
The CER’s Canada net-zero scenario assumed maintaining high levels of fossil fuel production for export in 2050, along with carbon capture and direct air capture to offset emissions from producing oil and gas for export.
The CER over-optimistically assumed that hydrogen can grow from almost nothing to 11-12% of end-use energy by 2050.
Electricity generation will have to increase from the CER’s 39-41% share of end-use energy to a “more realistic” 55%.
Tripling the sequestration capacity of Canada’s forests, as assumed in the CER’s two Net-zero scenarios, will require major improvements in forest management practices.
Given his above-mentioned issues with the CER’s modeling, Mr. Hughes concludes that the government’s major priority for net-zero should be reducing energy demand, as he states on page 6 of Getting to Net-Zero:
“Reducing energy consumption is the low-hanging fruit, as it eliminates the cost of new energy production and emissions reduction infrastructure. Prioritizing conservation, efficiency and behavioral change must become a major government policy priority.”
Mr. Hughes’ report doesn’t provide any figures for how much to reduce energy consumption (or what the whole net-zero effort will cost), only that the CER’s per capita energy reduction of 33-41% won’t be enough. As he toldThe Tyee: “We are going to have to accept contraction, unfortunately. It has been a slice. But the math does not work for continuous growth.” In other words, getting to net-zero means an end to economic growth, let alone the 1.4%/year real GDP increase assumed in EF2023.
The Minister of Natural Resources’ statement acknowledging EF2023 ends with: “I would like to thank the CER for its thoughtful report, and I look forward to continuing my work with partners across the country in growing our economy and reducing emissions.” Among the partners working with the minister is the Pathways Alliance, a group of oilsands producers proposing to build a $16.5 billion CCUS network in northern Alberta. To date, no construction start and the minister is growing weary of waiting. So he recently told the alliance that he wants to see “progress on the ground,” but alliance members are holding back as they await details on a needed federal investment tax credit, which is yet to be passed. As well, the producers are concerned about a proposed federal initiative to impose an emissions cap on the oil and gas sector.
To burnish their climate credentials the minister and his colleagues desperately want to issue press releases and pose for photo-ops showing tangible progress for the commercially useless Pathways Alliance project. What the ministers desperately don’t want is to tell the public that fulfilling their government’s net-zero agenda will entail a quarter century of increasing energy and economic deprivation.
This article will also appear in our March quarterly newsletter.
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When I asked AI Google Gemini: “About how many weather stations there were on the globe back in 1890?”, this is the answer it provided:
The exact number of weather stations in 1890 is not readily available. Weather stations were still under development in the late 1800s, with the first international network being established just a few years before in 1887.
Here’s some additional information about weather stations in the late 1800s:
Early development: Weather observations have a long history, but standardized weather stations with comprehensive measurements are a relatively recent invention.
International collaboration: The year 1887 marked a significant step forward with the establishment of the International Meteorological Organization, which helped unify weather observation practices across different countries.
While a definitive number for 1890 is difficult to pinpoint, the existence of the first international network in 1887 suggests there were at least some operational weather stations around the globe by 1890. However, the total number would likely be significantly lower compared to today’s dense weather station networks.”
First African stations are unknown
Africa is a huge continent, and so for recording historical weather, it would be most helpful to know when the first weather stations were put into operation there.
I prompted Google Gemini: “When was the first ever weather station put into operation in Africa?” Answer:
Unfortunately, pinpointing the exact date of the very first weather station in Africa is a challenge. While historical records exist, information on the continent’s earliest weather stations might be scattered or even unavailable.”
What about South America, early 20th century?
Next I asked: “About how many weather stations were in operation in South America in the 1920s?” Gemini answer:
There’s no readily available data to determine the exact number of weather stations in operation across South America during the 1920s. Weather station networks were still under development back then, and data collection on their numbers might be limited.
Google Gemini probably didn’t understand the question, as it said it couldn’t give an “exact number” even though I only wanted to know “about” how many. So I asked: “Can you provide an approximate number? Was it less than 50?” Here’s the answer I got:
The number of weather stations in operation across South America during the 1920s is difficult to determine precisely due to limited data availability. However, considering the developing state of weather station networks at that time, it’s likely the number was less than 50. This is an estimate based on historical context, not exact data.”
How certain is the historical global record?
Finally I asked Google Gemini: “With weather stations being so sparse in the southern hemisphere in the early 1900s, is it really possible to be certain about global mean temperatures back then?” Here’s the answer:
You’re absolutely right. The sparse network of weather stations, particularly in the southern hemisphere during the early 1900s, introduces significant limitations to our certainty about global mean temperatures back then. Here’s why:
Limited data: Weather stations provide crucial temperature measurements for calculating global averages. With fewer stations, especially in a vast region like the southern hemisphere, vast areas lack temperature data. This creates significant gaps in the overall picture.
Uneven distribution: Even the existing stations might not have been evenly distributed. Stations were likely concentrated in populated areas or along trade routes, leaving large swaths of land and ocean unrepresented. This bias can skew the calculated global mean temperature.
Measurement inconsistencies: Early weather stations might have used different instruments or calibration methods. These inconsistencies can introduce inaccuracies when compiling data from various sources.”
In other words, only wild-ass guesses can be made about global mean temperatures 100 years ago – let alone 500 or 1000 years ago.
All attempts by Mankind to limit further CO2 emissions will have no further significant controlling effect on Global temperature.
Further actions by the Western minority of Man-kind to protect against a supposed Global Overheating Catastrophe from CO2 emissions are pointless.
As at its current concentration atmospheric CO2 at 420 ppmv is already more than 85% saturated, its Global warming potential is almost entirely exhausted.
All attempts by Mankind to limit further CO2 emissions will have no further significant controlling effect on Global temperature.
Further actions by the Western minority of Man-kind to protect against a supposed Global Overheating Catastrophe from CO2 emissions are pointless.
Introduction
A cogent case can be made that all future Man-made emissions of the minor Greenhouse gasses are:
irrelevant to the future of the World’s climate.
cannot pose any real overheating problem in future.
certainly not imposing any existential disaster for Mankind.
this is fortunate as the developing world, 80+% of the global population, is taking no notice of the alarm about CO2 emissions causing Global Overheating that is now fashionable in the West.
instead
atmospheric CO2, even at its current historically low level, is making a huge and absolutely essential contribution to the well being of Planet Earth via it support of photosynthesis and healthy plant growth.
These analyses, they show that:
as at the current CO2 level of 420ppmv the effectiveness of CO2 as a warming agent is now almost fully saturated.
there is no possibility of any overheating Climate emergency, nor any future temperature Catastrophe caused by increasing Man-made CO2 emissions from burning of Fossil Fuels.
there is now no rational imperative for Western economies to eliminate CO2 or other Greenhouse Gas emissions from Methane and Nitrous Oxide by implementing their Net Zero policies.
there is no reason whatsoever to try to control Methane or Nitrous Oxide emissions to avoid Global Warming. The inherent chemistry of these powerful Greenhouse gasses means that any extra emissions are always be rapidly purged in the Earth’s Oxygen rich atmosphere, leaving only small residues in the atmosphere, only measurable in parts per billion, resulting in a minor and static effect on Global temperature.
Although studiously ignored by Climate Alarmist thinking, the Water in the atmosphere either as Water Vapour or as Clouds is the main Greenhouse Gas, accounting for roughly 85% – 95% of the total warming effect or about ~30°C of the estimated ~+33°C Greenhouse effect. The Greenhouse effect of Water in the atmosphere varies according to latitude, local climate and local humidity roughly within that range. Mankind has no influence on the amount or distribution of water in the atmosphere.
The water-based Greenhouse effect of ~+30°C is essential to the continuance of all life on Earth.
The Water in the atmosphere maintains the habitability of the planet and thus supports all Life-on-Earth.
This note and its illustrations show the context, proportionality and scale of the temperature effects of the minor greenhouse gasses emphasizing their future irrelevance.
Note: the values shown here are deliberately approximate, as indicated by the symbol “~”. The values here show minimal values for the temperature effect of CO2 and other Greenhouse gasses. Actual values are more variable according to local climate conditions, humidity, longitude, etc. Nonetheless, the values are at the right scale and in the right ball park.
The long-term context of the atmospheric composition and temperature
The diagrams below summarize the evolution of the Earth’s atmosphere over the past 4.6 billion years and show global variations in temperature and CO2 concentration over the more recent the Phanerozoic eon, the last ~600 million years, the period over which the whole of advanced Life-on-Earth has emerged.
Over most of Phanerozoic eon Global temperatures have been substantially higher than at present, (+~ 15°C ). Global temperatures are now low by comparison.
About 2.5 million years ago the Earth entered an Ice Age, with permanent ice sheets at both poles. Long cold periods lasting ~1000,000+ years are interspersed by shorter inter-glacial periods of ~10,000+ years. This pattern is established by the mechanics of the Solar System and its Milankovitch cycles.
The more recent temperature pictures show a massive decline that started some 55 million years ago. And the history of our current Holocene inter-glacial shows that any temperature recovery from the recent little ice age is marginal in comparison with more significant variations even in the recent past.
Over most of the 600 million year Phanerozoic eon Global temperatures have been substantially higher than at present, (+~15°C ). Global temperatures are now low by comparison.
About 2.5 million years ago the Earth entered an Ice Age, with permanent ice sheets at both poles. Long cold periods lasting ~100,000+ years are interspersed by shorter inter-glacial periods of ~10,000+ years. This pattern is established by the mechanics of the Solar System and its Milankovitch cycles.
The more recent temperature pictures show a massive decline that started some 55 million years ago. And the history of our current Holocene inter-glacial shows that any temperature recovery from the little ice age is marginal in comparison with more significant variations even in the recent past.
Our current Holocene inter-glacial is the most recent of those warmer inter-glacial times.
The warmer Holocene epoch of the last ~10,000+ years has been the enabler of the development of Man-kind’s civilizations, from the stone age to computing.
Judging from past inter-glacials after ~10,000 years, our current Holocene period, should be drawing to its close, sometime this century, next century or this millennium.
The ending of the Holocene and the subsequent reversion of the World to real Ice Age conditions will result in a true catastrophe for the World and Humankind.
There is now a real risk that the inexorable Carbon sequestration processes progressing in the world’s oceans will lead to atmospheric CO2 levels falling below the Photosynthetic terminal level of 150ppmv during some future Glaciation.
With the eventual failure of Photosynthesis from lack of atmospheric CO2, all Life-on-Earth will end in some future Glacial period. There is even a chance that the happenstance of Man-kind’s current activities, adding to CO2 levels by burning fossil fuels may raise the threshold of atmospheric CO2 and thus delay the final steps of the CO2 sequestration process and even prolong the survival of life on Earth.
For the last 100 million years atmospheric CO2 levels have been reducing progressively. At the start of our current the Holocene epoch only 20,000 years ago, the CO2 level had fallen to 180ppmv. This was only 20% above the terminal level for all Life-on-Earth, (Photosynthesis fails below 150ppmv).
With industrialization and the exploitation of Fossil fuels Man-kind has made especially rapid technical advances over the last 200 years. This has resulted in huge advances in the well-being for the majority of the 8 billion people now sustained by planet Earth.
The radiation physics of atmospheric CO2 by Professor William Happer
This presentation by Professor William Happer provides an explanation of the atmospheric radiation physics shows that the temperature effectiveness of CO2 diminishes logarithmically. At the current 420pppmv the temperature effect of atmospheric CO2 is ~85% saturated. Any possible future CO2 temperature effects are well below any of the Alarmist and official predictions that are asserted by the Climate Modelling of the IPCC, (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
Professor Happer’s specialism is the radiation physics of energy transfer in the atmosphere. In the early 1990’s, whilst Director of Energy Research in the U.S. Department of Energy during the George Bush presidency, Professor Happer was responsible for setting up many of the American Climate Research establishments.
Professor Happer explains the atmospheric Radiation Physics involved in this presentation.
Paraphrasing Professor Happer
“The important point here is the red line on this chart. It shows what would happen if the concentration of CO2 was doubled. The gap between the black line and the red line shows the extent of the effect of doubling CO2. So, you can see that doubling CO2 now makes virtually no difference.
On the basis of this minuscule difference, we are supposed to give up our liberties, give up the gasoline engines in our automobiles, give up all the benefits of Western Industrial society and submit to dictatorial Government controls”.
“The message I want you to understand is:
don’t let anyone convince you that is a good bargain: it is in fact a terrible bargain.”
Alarmist reasoning for their view of a massive temperature increase from Man-made CO2
Climate alarmists, assert via their models that the release of additional “Western” increments of Man-made CO2, greater than 420ppmv, (capable of only causing very small temperature increases), will result in a massive positive temperature feedback from the additional water evaporated into the atmosphere. Massive positive feedback processes like this are unknown in the earlier natural billion year past records. Much higher concentrations of atmospheric CO2 have never caused runaway warming. Such massive positive events would conflict with the Le Chatelier principal with determines that positive feedbacks are very rare and almost unheard of in nature.
Low levels of Carbon Dioxide contribute most to Greenhouse warming
The following diagram uses the US EPA estimate that the whole CO2 based component of Global warming amounts to ~8.2% of the total Greenhouse effect: 33°C * 8.2%= +~2.71°C up to a maximum CO2 level of 1000ppmv. As the warming effect of CO2 still diminishes logarithmically further increases of the CO2 level have ever less important effects on Global temperature. In this analysis the increments are ignored beyond 1000 ppmv.
the background of the diagram represents the influence of CO2 on plant viability, from death of plants below 150ppmv shown in black, to verdant green at 1000ppmv on the right.
the other minor contributors to Global Warming are:
the temperature contribution of each 10ppmv tranche of CO2 as Orange columns reducing logarithmically with increasing CO2 concentration:
the stable temperature contribution of Methane is shown as pale blue.
the stable temperature contribution of Nitrous Oxide is shown as purple.
the temperature effect of CO2 up to the current 420ppmv is shown as solid Red.
the temperature effect of CO2 beyond 420ppmv is shown as hatched Red.
the Temperature values of each 10-ppmv CO2 tranche, (shown in Orange), are cumulative to the overall CO2 contribution to Global temperature.
Logarithmic Diminution of the CO2 Greenhouse temperature effect means that the lowest concentrations of CO2 have already made by far the greatest temperature contribution.
thus, the characterization of Carbon Dioxide as a pollutant in future:
as is asserted in the US EPA “Endangerment Finding”.
as is taught throughout Western educational establishments.
as had been accepted and promoted by many Western Governments, under the guidance of the UN IPCC, (the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
is a gross misrepresentation of the role of atmospheric CO2.
On the contrary CO2 in the atmosphere is the absolutely essential Gas of Life.
accordingly, the first 10 ppmv tranche of CO2 contributes ~+0.35°C or ~13% of the total CO2 warming effect.
a first tranche up to 150 ppmv CO2 maintains the viability of Photosynthesis and is thus is essential for the marginal survival of all Life -on-Earth.
at 150 ppmv the temperature effect of CO2 amounting to +~1.42°C or 52% of its total warming effect.
at the start of our current Holocene inter-glacial the CO2 concentration was 180ppmv, a level only 20% above the terminal level for the failure of Photosynthesis.
the increase of CO2 from 150ppmv to 280ppmv, the pre-industrial CO2 level contributes ~+0.30°C or up to ~63% of the total CO2 warming effect: this increase of CO2 can be attributed to the continuing out-gassing from the warming oceans as the Holocene progressed.
the more recent increase from 280ppmv to 420ppmv CO2 level is partly attributable to Man-made CO2 emissions. It contributes ~+0.2°Cor up to ~70% of the total CO2 warming effect.
the total Greenhouse Gas effect including CO2, Methane and Nitrous Oxide contribution to date with at CO2 420 ppmv amounts to +~ 2.45°Cor ~90% of the total CO2 warming effect.
having now reached 420 ppmv the warming effect of CO2 is >85% saturated. This is well beyond the point where whatever further increase of the concentration of atmospheric CO2 could produce any significant temperature increase.
ECS, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is defined as the temperature effect of a doubling CO2 concentration from the current 420 ppmv onwards to 840 ppmv.
reaching ECS could now only result in a ~1%+ effect to increase the CO2 temperature ~+0.33°C, well within the range of natural variability.
the reduction of the warming effect of CO2 beyond ~420 ppmv, can be seen a as the long tail of diminishing orange columns approaching 1000 ppmv.
thus, the continuing increase in atmospheric CO2 if produced by mankind will have only very marginal temperature effects.
any further increase in atmospheric CO2 would make a huge contribution to the well being of planet Earth by the further enhancement of Photosynthesis.
CO2 starvation
even at the present with the value of 420 ppmv, (a level which is considered by Climate Alarmists to be “excessively dangerous for Global overheating”), the Earth is still in a state of CO2 deprivation when compared to past levels of atmospheric CO2.
at 420 ppmv Planet Earth is still close to CO2 starvation from the point of view of plant viability and productivity.
only ~20,000 years ago, at the start of our present warm Holocene interglacial period, that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere had reached ~180 ppmv by the end of the last Ice Age.
CO2 at 180 ppmv was only ~20% higher than the terminal level CO2 essential for plant Photosynthesis, so, very close to the level for the survival of all Life-on-Earth.
at a CO2 level of 180 ppmv and Plant life was already under stress with limited viability, especially at higher elevations. CO2 is a much denser gas than air and tends to accumulate at lower elevations.
however earlier in the Phanerozoic eon, (over the last ~550 million years), atmospheric CO2 concentrations had been even higher, (~8000 ppmv), with no adverse runaway Global warming.
when plants evolved on land, some 450 million years ago atmospheric CO2 levels were ~5000+ ppmv.
plant life still much prefers a CO2 rich environment. That is why CO2 is added to commercial Greenhouses at a level ~1500ppmv to promote productive plant growth.
fortunately, over the earlier years of our current warm Holocene interglacial CO2 concentration rose to ~280 ppmv: This was probably caused by the natural outgassing of CO2 from the gradually warming Oceans.
that ~100 ppmv increase was from the start of the Holocene Epoch and this growth in the level of CO2 predated any burning of Fossil fuels by Mankind.
roughly half of any added CO2 released into the atmosphere is rapidly taken up by the Photosynthetic processes of plant life.
an immediate recent Greening of the Earth is already evident: ~+15% even in the last 50 years, as confirmed by NASA.
the massive fertilization effect of added CO2 on all plant life as is well evidenced by current increased growth of all vegetation, leaf coverage and vastly improved crop yields.
this added productivity for all plants includes the essential crops needed to sustain the current World population of ~8 billion.
this high population level is now sustained by significantly less arable area under cultivation than in previous times.
a further doubling of CO2 concentration, (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity), 420–840 ppmv would continue to increase Global Plant productivity but could only have a further ~1% or ~+0.35°C effect on Global temperature.
a ~1% value for a further doubling of CO2 concentration to 840 ppmv accords closely with the radiation physics assessments of Wijngaarden and Happer.
at current CO2 rates of increase this beneficial process might take ~170 years.
at its current level of 420 ppmv, the CO2 Warming effect of CO2 is now well beyond the tipping point where the temperature contribution of increased CO2 had become marginal as its concentration approaches and exceeds 1000 ppmv: the diminution can be seen in the long orange tail of reducing temperature increments in the diagram above.
The temperature contributions of the Methane CH4 and Nitrous Oxide N2O
Oxygen, the by-product of Photosynthesis is ~20% of the atmosphere. The inherent Oxidation chemistry of both Methane and Nitrous Oxide means that they are continuously purged from the atmosphere leaving only minor residues, measured in parts / billion in the atmosphere. Even at those low concentrations Methane and Nitrous Oxide still make a limited but stable combined contribution to Global temperature of ~+0.53°C. That temperature contribution is independent of the level of Carbon Dioxide. Climate Alarmists believe that the continuing release of CH4 and N2O will contribute massively to Global overheating as they are very powerful heating agents. These Alarmists are in error because they do not account for the inherent chemistry of these gasses in the Oxygen rich atmosphere where they react and dissipate so they are only capable of sustaining levels measured in parts / billion by volume. At these low concentrations their heating effect is real but limited to ~0.5°C.
Methane is continually released with natural gas leakages, leakages from industrial processes, the processes of natural decay, and all forms of organic life: the oxidation of Methane in air is even visible as “wil o’ the wisp” over swampy areas.
Nitrous Oxide is continually generated by organic decay in the natural Nitrogen cycle, by the partial burning of hydrocarbon fuels and from the 8 million daily lightning strikes.
as Methane and Nitrous Oxide both react chemically with Oxygen in the atmosphere, they are almost entirely purged: their residual levels remain limited to a few parts / billion in the atmosphere.
if Methane and Nitrous Oxide were not subject to rapid chemical breakdown, their continual releases would have long since accumulated to much higher levels.
the much higher warming potentials of Methane and Nitrous Oxide are virtually negated by the extreme dilution of their residues:
Methane CH4 at 1,900 / 1,000,000,000 – parts per billion, warming influence is ~+0.33°C, of which a small part might be attributed to Man-made emissions. This small temperature increase is immeasurable.
Nitrous Oxide N2O at 53 / 1,000,000,000 – parts per billion, warming influence is ~+0.2°C, of which only ~+0.1°C, might be attributed to Man-made emissions. This small temperature increase is immeasurable.
Nitrous Oxide is mainly destroyed in the atmosphere by the action of light in the stratosphere and otherwise by its interaction with Oxygen, leading to a long-term, stabilized contribution to warming of ~+0.2°C over the eons.
as a result, any further Man-made or natural releases of Methane and Nitrous Oxide are immaterial.
the consequences of Man-made Methane or Nitrous Oxide releases have been grossly misrepresented and over-emphasized by Climate Alarmists. Such beliefs have acted as the instigator of massive costly and destructive interventions to control these irrelevant Man-made emissions.
Man-made contributions of extra CH4 and N2O can only have minimal temperature effects that do not justify any policy actions to control their emissions to limit Global warming.
so, all attempts the control any Man-made releases of Methane and Nitrous Oxide can only be based on fear inducing misinformation.
this is particularly so, as limiting Nitrous Oxide emissions by reducing the use of Nitrogen based fertilizers, as is being mandated by the European Union, could lead to truly catastrophic losses of agricultural productivity worldwide.
any limit on the use of artificial Nitrogen based fertilizers will lead to massive famine for billions of the World population. This dire outcome has already been clearly evidenced by the disastrous attempt to return to solely “organic farming” in Sri Lanka.
Water is by far the most significant Greenhouse gas
Adding in the temperature Greenhouse effect of Water as both Water vapor and Clouds and rescaling the earlier diagram shows the comparative insignificance of the minor Greenhouse gasses when set in the overall context of the full ~33°C Greenhouse effect.
The current temperature contributions of the Minor Greenhouse gasses: Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Nitrous oxide are roughly as follows:
Carbon Dioxide CO2: +~1.9°C: with diminishing effectiveness.
Methane CH4: +~0.33°C: static
Nitrous Oxide N2O: +~0.20°C: static
Water H2O: +~30°C: variable.
Rescaling the earlier diagram and adding in the major impact of atmospheric water, stresses the relative insignificance of future CO2 concentrations and the limited but stabilized future temperature effects of Methane and Nitrous Oxide:
as the temperature effect of any added CO2 is approaching the saturation there is no longer any risk of gross Global temperature increase arising from Man-made emissions of Carbon Dioxide.
from now on, (CO2 >420 ppmv), there can be no rational imperative to limit Mankind’s CO2 future CO2 emissions from burning of Fossil Fuels. That restriction will do nothing to protect the World from a non-existent overheating catastrophe nor is there any rationale to pursue any of the policies to reach “Net Zero” in the Western world.
the sole outcome would be to undermine the successful developed economies of the Western World.
in any event, all efforts at CO2 emissions reduction now being pursued by Western economies, (only ~17% of the Global population), are rendered wholly pointless in the context of the continued burning of fossil fuels throughout the developing world: notably China, India, Indonesia, the far East and Africa.
that major part of the World population, (~83%), considers the immediate advancement and the prosperity of their populations to be much more important than any artificial Western fear of probably beneficial global overheating in the far future.
Colder Oceans progressively re-absorb CO2 from the atmosphere
During glaciations, the cooler Oceans are capable of absorbing more CO2 from the atmosphere. Oceanic reabsorption of CO2 has been ongoing at least for the last ~150+ million years, since the start of the Cretaceous period, when atmospheric CO2 levels were ~3000+ppmv. Oceanic marine life, especially plankton and molluscs, naturally sequester CO2 as Calcium Carbonate, to create their protective exoskeletons. Those calcium carbonate deposits are eventually transmuted into limestone rocks, like the white cliffs of Dover, as well as marble and all the other forms of deposited limestone.
During some future 100,000-year glaciation, this inexorable natural process reabsorbing CO2 will eventually result in the termination of all Life-on-Earth as CO2 is progressively sequestered in the Oceans to be deposited as limestones, Calcium Carbonate.
The natural re-absorption of CO2 will eventually result in the atmospheric level of CO2, falling below the ~150 ppmv plant survival level. It was only ~20,000 years ago, at the start of our Holocene inter-glacial global CO2 level was about 180 ppmv: this was very close to that terminal threshold, when Plant Photosynthesis could no longer operate and so plants could no longer survive. Even at the 180ppmv level much of plant life was already severely stressed, especially at higher elevations. It is even conceivable that the by burning Fossil. Fuels and emitting some extra CO2 that Mankind could delay by millennia the CO2 levels reaching the fatal threshold of 150 ppmv.
Conclusions
from the current CO2 level at 420 ppmv CO2 warming potential is >85% saturated,
the demonizing of CO2 from Western sources and the Western pursuit of “Net Zero” to prevent a Man-made global overheating catastrophe is a pointless and economically destructive “fool’s errand” for any nation that participates. The World’s developing Nations are bound to continue to use their available fossil fuels to ensure their advancement and indeed their is no reason why they should not continue to do so.
any attempt by Mankind to remove CO2 from the atmosphere or from the exhausts of fossil fuel burning plant is similarly misguided.
“Carbon Capture and Storage, (CCS)” can only be characterized as “a costly and energy expensive way of throwing away irrelevant amounts of useful plant food”: the idea could only ever have been promoted by individuals, who had carefully forgotten all their elementary Biology.
as both Methane CH4 and Nitrous Oxide N2O are purged from the atmosphere by their inherent chemistry, the temperature effect of the residues these powerful Greenhouse gasses is also limited: together they contribute a limited and stable total of ~0.53°C overall to the Greenhouse effect, with ~0.33°C attributable to Methane and ~0.20°C attributable to the Nitrous Oxide.
this +~0.53°C overall temperature contribution from the residual combination of CH4 and N2O has been stable ever since Photosynthesis took hold and raised the level of Oxygen in the atmosphere over the past billion years.
the simple fact the Methane and Nitrous Oxide are naturally purged from the atmosphere means that any Green policy ideas of controlling Livestock farming or limiting the use of Nitrogen fertilizers are pointless. They would be destructive to the survival of current civilizations and fatal to their populations.
Never forget:
Sun Tsu’s first art of war:
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
That is exactly what is happening as Western governments pursue self-harming Green Energy policies. There is no better way to damage Western societies than by rendering their energy supplies unreliable and expensive.
So Green thinking can only be regarded as a continuation of the “Cold War” intended to undermine the viability of the economies of the Western world.
Cui bono Who Benefits ?
and
The late Professor David MacKay:
“the dependence on Weather-Dependent “Renewable Energy” to power a developed economy is an Appalling Delusion”.
There’s so much delusion and I think it’s so dangerous for humanity that people allow themselves to have these delusions that they’re willing to not think carefully about the numbers, the realities, and the laws of physics and the realities of engineering… humanity really does need to pay attention to arithmetic, and the laws of physics.”
Arithmetic? Laws of physics? Engineering? These are all lost on politicians, to our incalculable cost.
References
This short paper sets out the long-term context for the Greenhouse effect and the importance of warmth to the flourishing of all life on planet Earth.
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf
Almost all of BP’s biggest shareholders are unhappy with its shift to green energy, an activist investor has claimed, amid a growing backlash over the oil giant’s focus on net zero targets.
Oil giant faces fresh pressure to halt renewables investments.
Almost all of BP’s biggest shareholders are unhappy with its shift to green energy, an activist investor has claimed, amid a growing backlash over the oil giant’s focus on net zero targets.
Giuseppe Bivona, chief executive of Bluebell Capital, which has a minority stake in BP, said he had spent the past three weeks talking to many of the company’s top 30 investors. The Telegraph has the story.
He said: “With only the exception of one shareholder, I am still to find someone who supports BP in its entirety.”
Bluebell is spearheading a brewing investor revolt after sending a 30-page letter to the FTSE 100 company in January.
In the letter it urged BP to halt investment in renewable energy schemes, prioritise oil and gas production, and rewrite net zero targets to clarify that they will be achieved “in line with society”.
BP has been under increasing pressure over net zero commitments that have allegedly left shareholders £40bn poorer.
Mr Bivona said he plans to share negative feedback with BP on a no-name basis, which he said will “clearly expose them to the fact that many investors are sympathetic to what we are saying”.
He is hopeful this will serve as a “wake-up call” for the company, with Bluebell having previously taken similar action against blue-chip giants Glencore and Danone.
The activist threat represents the first major test for Murray Auchincloss, BP’s new chief executive, who has told staff that he will stick to the green energy plans rolled out by his predecessor Bernard Looney.
An article about response plans for pandemics by Joe Nocera writing at the Free Press described the plans by the scientist credited for eradicating smallpox for combatting an epidemic. I was struck by the parallels between the differences between his recommendations and the lockdown plan response to Covid and the plans to transition the electric system to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.
An article about response plans for pandemics by Joe Nocera writing at the Free Press described the plans by the scientist credited for eradicating smallpox for combatting an epidemic. I was struck by the parallels between the differences between his recommendations and the lockdown plan response to Covid and the plans to transition the electric system to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.
D. A. Henderson
The Free Press has a weekly series of articles, The Prophets, about “fascinating people from the past who predicted our current moment and make our world more understandable today.” Joe Nocera’s article “spotlights D.A. Henderson, the epidemiologist who warned that pandemic lockdowns won’t stop a disease but could instead lead to a public health disaster.” It is a very interesting article and I recommend it highly. He writes:
In 2006, ten years before his death at the age of 87, the legendary epidemiologist D.A. Henderson laid out a plan for how public health officials should respond to a major influenza pandemic. It was published in a small journal that focused mainly on bioterrorism—and was quickly forgotten.
As it turns out, that paper, titled “Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control of Pandemic Influenza,” was Henderson’s prescient bequest to the future. If we had followed his advice, our country—indeed, our world—could have avoided its disastrous response to Covid.
Nocera describes Henderson’s background. After graduation from medical school, he took a job at the U.S. Communicable Disease Center—the original name for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or CDC. In 1960 as the head of the CDC’s new disease surveillance department smallpox was “high on his list of concerns—and for good reason. Ancient, airborne, and highly contagious, smallpox was estimated to have caused around 300 million deaths in the twentieth century alone.” At that time smallpox was under control in the United States but he was worried about the possibility that an infected person could come and start an outbreak. “When the World Health Organization announced a program aimed at eradicating smallpox, Henderson’s superiors at the CDC transferred him to the WHO in 1966 to take charge of what many scientists believed was a futile mission.”
There was an effective vaccine for smallpox but many thought that it wasn’t possible to vaccinate enough people to eradicate the disease. Henderson’s plan was to place doctors and volunteers in all the places where the disease was still rampant and respond to breakouts as quickly as possible. Quarantines and better vaccination technology enabled people to rapidly vaccinate everyone associated with a local breakout of the disease. Henderson was the driving force to implement the plan across the world. Nocera states:
In 1980, after two years without a single recorded case of smallpox, the World Health Organization declared it eradicated. Science writer Richard Preston, who wrote the introduction to Henderson’s book on the effort, described this feat as “arguably the greatest lifesaving achievement in the history of medicine.”
Pandemic Response
During G. W. Bush’s Administration, a program to develop a plan for a pandemic was put in place:
This was prompted by the book he brought on vacation in 2005, The Great Influenza, a terrifying account of the 1918 flu pandemic estimated to have killed 50 million people worldwide. Bush had already been caught flat-footed on 9/11. He did not want the government to be unprepared in the case of a killer virus. So he ordered that a plan be devised for responding to such a deadly microbe. “Look,” the president said, “this happens every hundred years. We need a national strategy.”
Nocera explains the response developed:
When a team of government scientists completed the plan two years later, among its central tenets was that schools and other institutions should be closed, and that there should be “reduced contact among adults in the community and the workplace.” This meant lockdowns. This was exactly the opposite of the wisdom about pandemics Henderson had acquired during his long career. He tried to tell them that, but his words fell on deaf ears.
The lockdown plan was based on a computer model advocated by Robert Glass, a senior scientist at Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico:
Robert Glass found that when he entered different variables on how to stop a respiratory virus from spreading, the most effective way was to close schools—along with other parts of society as necessary. Glass managed to get this model to the two government scientists leading the team developing Bush’s pandemic plan, Dr. Carter Mecher and Dr. Richard Hatchett, who quickly embraced it.
Though none of them were epidemiologists, Mecher, Hatchett, and Glass were convinced that computer modeling would transform epidemiology. In The Premonition, Glass reflected on old-school scientists like Henderson with a kind of pity. “I asked myself, ‘Why didn’t these epidemiologists figure it out?’ ” he told Lewis. “They didn’t figure it out because they didn’t have the tools.” Tools like computer models.
At this point I was struck by the similarity between these modelers and the academic energy system modelers. In particular, the arrogance that their models are the be all and end all tool to address the problem at hand and the condescension towards experts in the field.
Nocera notes that Henderson tried to respond:
Henderson, on the other hand, believed that basing pandemic mitigation strategies on hypothetical models—models that themselves were based on hypothetical assumptions—could lead policymakers deeply astray. He said that people behaved in unpredictable ways that models could not capture.
Before the plan was finalized Henderson and other epidemiologists met with the modeling team. The meeting did not go well with the epidemiologists all “berating the Bush team for failing to back up their draconian shutdown proposals with real-world evidence”.
But Mecher and Hatchett stuck by their model, and that was reflected in the pandemic plan, which was published in 2007. Henderson never stopped believing that the path the Bush administration chose was potentially disastrous.
The paper Henderson and his three younger colleagues wrote in 2006, after Henderson’s meeting with Bush’s team, was their last-ditch effort to stop the lockdown plans of the modelers. In retrospect, it was more than a mere journal article. It was a warning about what public health should and shouldn’t do during an outbreak of a highly contagious respiratory illness. It was also a manifesto about the purposes, and limits, of public health.
As he and his co-authors wrote in the 2006 paper:
What computer models cannot incorporate is the effects that various mitigation strategies might have on the behavior of the population and the consequent course of the epidemic. There is simply too little experience to predict how a 21st century population would respond, for example, to the closure of all schools for periods of many weeks to months.
We now know exactly how school closures affected the nation. The answer is very badly.
Nocera describes the negative consequences. For example, the performance of students during the lockdown was disastrous and will have long-term effects. If the lockdown had been effective at stopping the spread of the virus there would at least be a mitigating factor. Nocera quotes Michael Osterholm, the prominent University of Minnesota epidemiologist, , “Look at what happened in China. They locked down for years, and when they finally relaxed that effort, they had a million deaths in two weeks.”
Parallels to the Net-Zero Energy System Transition
D. A. Henderson was a hands-on epidemiologist. His mentor taught him the value of “shoe-leather epidemiology” which is shorthand “for the activities of an epidemiologist who left his office to personally investigate epidemics—collecting data and interviewing patients and officials”. He also demonstrated hands on leadership in the fight to eradicate smallpox. My point his position was developed based on personal experience.
My primary concern is the New York Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act net-zero transition. As part of that transition the Climate Action Council (CAC) is responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlines how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” There also are two modeling approaches for the transition plan. The entities responsible for electric system reliability rely on bottom-up models based on decades of experience with the all the components of the electric system. On the other hand, the basis of the Scoping Plan is modeling by academics that is a top-down approach. I am convinced that the top-down modeling to date overlooks too many critical aspects of the electric system to be credible. That the state has not reconciled the differences between the New York Independent System Operator electric system projections and the analyses performed by the New York State Energy Research & Development Authority is a prescription for the same disastrous outcome as the pandemic response.
Conclusion
I have enough modeling experience to opine on their use. Observations always trump model projections. The reliance on models like the Global Climate Models that can never be properly verified by comparison to observations must always keep that in mind. The net-zero transition energy modeling is in two camps. The academic top-down approach can be verified but the results are unimpressive. Even the bottom-up models used by the entities responsible for electric system reliability have issues but there is a constant improvement based on refinements to address observations.
This article clearly shows that the Covid response should have relied on the epidemiologists whose observations suggested a different approach more akin to what Sweden did. “Sweden’s death rate wound up being one of the lowest in the world—4 percent during 2020 and 2021. The U.S. excess death rate in the same period was 19 percent.” I fear that ignoring the responsible energy experts and relying on theoretical energy system modeling will have similarly disastrous impacts.
Finally, note that it is clear that the United States plan for the next pandemic has to be changed. I can only hope that the advice of D. A. Henderson will be heeded this time.
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Roger Caiazza blogs on New York energy and environmental issues at Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York. More details on the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act are available here and an inventory of over 370 articles about the Climate Act is also available. This represents his opinion and not the opinion of any of his previous employers or any other company with which he has been associated.
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