Day: October 23, 2023

Your Tax Dollars at Leisure

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Biden-Harris Administration Announces $325 Million For Long-Duration Energy Storage Projects to Increase Grid Resilience and Protect Americaโ€™s Communities. DOE Funding for 15 Projects Will Help Advance Energy Storage Technologies, Enhance Clean Energy Adoption, and Reduce Impacts on the Grid from Climate Change-Fueled Extreme Weather Events.

From Watts Up With That?

Kevin Kilty

Long duration storage is the current rage. As an example of long term energy storage, consider the venerable alkaline AAA primary battery. It has a shelf life of ten years. If discharged at only 25mA it will deliver 1200 mAhr of charge before it is completely spent. Using its nominal 1.5V rating, it will deliver about 1.8Whr of energy. AAA cells cost around a buck ($1 USD); so, in other words, its cost of stored energy is $556 per kWhr. โ€œHow can a person afford such expensive energy?โ€ one wonders. The obvious answer is, by using it only in tiny amounts.

Now for the $24,000 question. Will grid scale energy storage remain so expensive that people can afford it only in tiny amounts or will it become as inexpensive as, say, cheap coal or hydro power?

On September 25, 2023 the Department of Energy and Biden-Harris Administration Announced awards amounting to  $325 Million For Long-Duration Energy Storage Projects. By long duration DOE means intraday (10 to 36 hours) or multiday (36 to 160+ hours) storage solutions.

According to the press release DOE funding for 15 projects will do the following:

  • Increase Grid Resilience and Protect Americaโ€™s Communities
  • Help Advance Energy Storage Technologies,
  • Enhance Clean Energy Adoption, and
  • Reduce Impacts on the Grid from Climate Change-Fueled Extreme Weather Events

In an unusually candid admission, the press release says that todayโ€™s energy storage technologies are not sufficiently scaled or affordable to support the broad use of renewable energy on the grid. Yet, despite this clear rationale for a focussed effort, the press release betrays the defocussing politics. 

โ€œFunding applicants were required to submit a community benefits plan to outline how proposed projects will support community and workforce engagement, invest in the American workforce, advance energy and environmental justice, and promote diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility, and deliver benefits to disadvantaged communities as part of the Justice40 Initiative. These key requirements, when incorporated comprehensively into project proposals and executed upon, will help de-risk these projects to ensure that the transition to a clean energy economy benefits all Americans.โ€

The press release is here. Unfortunately it is short on specifics, as are documents it references, and as are the websites of the various participants.[1] Here is a summary of the projects DOE chose:

Projects recycling EV batteries

Communities Accessing Resilient Energy Storage (CARES)

Second life sMARt sysTems (SMART)

New Li-ion batteries are far too expensive to provide inexpensive backup, but decommissioned electric vehicle batteries are widely available. Why not use them for grid storage?

Two projects propose to repurpose batteries as stored energy for two affordable housing complexes. The problem is that decommissioned batteries have varying capacity, which means varying charge/discharge characteristics. Each project approaches a solution to this problem differently. One proposes to use extensive testing to identify batteries that can be paired together; the other proposes to use control electronics (monitoring/buck-boost) to integrate battery packs from different manufacturers at varying states of health.

There is no doubt that either tactic can solve this problem at the small project scale of about 7MWhr. Yet a general rule is that complicated efforts to make widely varying input materials meet very specific objectives would submerge a grid scale effort in O&M costs.

Rechargeable Zn/MO2 Batteries

Project: STOred Rechargeable Energy Demonstration (STORED)

This project location is Oneonta and Westchester County, New York. Anyone who has read the guest blogs of the Manhattan Contrarian or the Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York will understand that energy storage is critical to New Yorkโ€™s idea of a clean energy future. If non-dispatchable power sources like wind and solar are ever to provide a significant portion of New York Stateโ€™s electricity, storage has to be made available. This project aims to demonstrate the viability of its zinc/manganese dioxide (Zn and MnO2) batteries in large scale and long-duration. The proposed batteries will provide load management and power resilience at a scale of more than 600kW of power for more than 12 hours per discharge.

Zinc is an inexpensive anode material. Zinc anode batteries have been used in a variety of designs since the late 1800s and the alkaline electrolyte version of these batteries has a well-established industrial base and supply chain. Yet, despite these advantages, rechargeable versions of the alkaline batteries suffer from two issues. First, the alkaline electrolyte MnO2 yields a discharge product of ZnO which passivates the zinc anode inhibiting recharge. Second, Zinc anodes in cyclic operation develop dendrites. [5,6,7]

Three projects using Flow Batteries

Rural Energy Viability for Integrated Vital Energy (REVIVE),

Childrenโ€™s HospitAl Resilient Grid with Energy Storage (CHARGES) and Front-of-the-meter Utilization of Zinc bromide Energy Storage (FUZES)

Flow batteries are a clever solution to the problem of matching fuel quantity against the cross-sectional area of the electrode stack. Design a stack appropriate to the power demand (MW) and then make reservoirs of electrolyte with capacity for the MWhr required. Circulate the electrolyte as needed. Because these batteries may be unfamiliar I have included a schematic in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Reactions in the electrode stack at the electrode surfaces produce a current through the load. A compensating ionic current flows through the membrane to complete the circuit. In contrast to the limited capacity of a typical battery the flow battery has electrolyte tanks of a size designed for energy capacity. 

The technology provider for REVIVE proposes to place vanadium redox flow batteries at five rural locations. The batteries have nominal discharge ratings of 700kW to 3.6MW and discharge capabilities of up to 20 hours. So, these are not large batteries by any means and not long duration.

What one finds when researching vanadium flow batteries is, first, they have been around for a surprisingly long time. The idea was first advanced by NASA in the 1970s. Sumitomo Electric advertises that they began developing these batteries in 1985 and commercialized them in 2001;[2] second, there are a stunning number of companies involved.

One would think that such a long history of development and so many competitors would have led to broad deployment already. However, the issue here may be one of cost.[3] Iโ€™ll examine this issue more fully in the Discussion section. Meanwhile, Figure 2, using data from the U.S. Geological Survey, shows the cost of vanadium pentoxide per thousand kilograms over the past twenty years or so. The average price is $27 (nominal USD) per kilogram. Vanadium is not cheap and its price is volatile. Much like lithium, the deposits are widespread and of low grade. In fact, a leading source of vanadium is petroleum refining; another is uranium mining.

Figure 2. Price of vanadium (V2O5) over the past 40 years. Data is from the USGS.

Two other teams propose to install zinc/bromide flow batteries for grid backup. The CHARGES project will install a 34.4MWh behind-the-meter, zinc bromide flow battery system as backup for a childrenโ€™s hospital.This project will allegedly replace diesel generators with cleaner, and allegedly more cost-effective resources. Is the cost claim credible without subsidies?

Similarly the FUZES project proposes to place ahead of the meter zinc/bromide flow batteries at sites in Oregon and Wisconsin. These batteries provide a mere 10 hours of duration. So, they arenโ€™t really long duration or grid-scale storage.

Columbia Energy Storage Project 

Columbia County, Wisconsin is the site of a project proposing a closed-loop CO2-based energy storage system. Energy Dome will supply the technology for the project. They have already demonstrated their scheme at a scale of 2.5MW. The idea is to use excess electrical energy to compress CO2 from a large storage dome to a supercritical fluid held in high pressure vessels. When energy is needed the high pressure CO2 is heated and allowed to expand through a turbine back into the dome. Thus, the working fluid remains in a closed circuit.

The project plan calls for using a brownfield site of a coal-fired thermal plant that should be closed in 2026. This site will provide facilities, electrical substation probably, to lower the project cost. There are few details on the technology suppliers site to evaluate the scheme.

Polar heat pumping

Healy, Alaska is a small town along the highway connecting Fairbanks to Anchorage. The area currently gets electrical energy from a coal-fired plant that is soon to retire. Apparently the replacement will be wind energy, but to firm-up this non-dispatchable source, the POLAR project seeks to develop and deploy a Pumped Thermal Energy Storage system. In effect, this system is a very large heat pump that converts excess wind energy into heat stored in inexpensive concrete blocks. This stored energy is then converted back into electricity using a heat engine.

Multiday Iron air Demonstration (MIND)

I find this project to be the most interesting among the lot because it represents true long duration storage โ€“ 100 hours at 10MW. The battery chemistry is iron-air which at least promises low-cost materials. The proposed energy storage system is larger in terms of energy than the Hornsdale battery (1000 MWhr vs. 194 MWhr) though it is smaller in terms of power (10MW vs. 150MW).  These batteries are proposed to be sited at retiring coal plants in Minnesota and Colorado which will reduce project costs by reusing facilities like transmission lines and substations.

Discussion

Only one project can be called a long-duration project. Most plan for small power output or small stored energy or both. There are few details at this time to analyze the potential for success and what constitutes a success isnโ€™t all that clear. There are some glaring issues. For example, though zinc anode batteries offer many advantages, including low material cost, they are prone to developing dendrites during the recharge cycle and a loss of capacity.[6]  Vanadium electrolyte may have an โ€œinfiniteโ€ life as claimed, but it is surprisingly expensive. At the peak price shown in Figure 2, the cost of a kWhr of electrolyte capacity would exceed $450 (USD); that is, exceeds the cost of lithium batteries in whole by a factor of three.

The two projects making use of thermo-mechanical cycles are vague.[8] One project tries to store energy as heat in a subarctic location. This doesnโ€™t seem like a good choice. The other involves large quantities of stored CO2 which upon a catastrophic release would risk smothering people and animals. It could arguably present a bigger hazard than fire or explosion.

However, a general principle of making and delivering compressed gasses is that one usually reduces the work to accomplish this goal by throwing away the heat it produces. In this CO2 project the objective is not to compressed gas, but to store energy efficiently and that different goal demands something useful has to be done with the heat produced. Letโ€™s just say that schemes to store energy in compressed gasses abound but none appear effective.

One clear goal of all this is to realize a goal of reducing the cost of long duration storage by 90%โ€, or what is stated elsewhere as $0.05 (USD) per kWhr of delivered energy. Letโ€™s examine basic finance.

Consider this hypothetical situation. Each kWhr of energy storage is fully used each day. Energy is purchased at $0.02 per kWhr at night, and sold each day for $0.05. Efficiency each direction is 80%. Thus, we have gross profit of $0.015 per kWhr or, on an annualized basis, $5.48 per annum. What first cost, capital cost essentially, and interest rate can we withstand to just break even? In other words, what interest rate and first cost make it possible to deliver energy at $0.05 per kWhr.

An interest rate is a measure of a personโ€™s time preference for money. An interest rate discounts the distant future and accentuates the near future. An interest rate of zero is not remotely reasonable as it implies a person can wait forever to be repaid, even beyond their lifetime โ€“ a ludicrous suggestion. A reasonable interest rate is 4% per annum. Letโ€™s see what principal amount allows us to break even in 30 years โ€“ long past the life of most energy system components.

The factor that converts a present value to an annualized amount is (A/P) or vise versa (P/A) and is a function of interest rate and duration. At 4% per annum and 30 years, the conversion factor is 0.0578 or 17.3 respectively. Thus, $5.48 times 17.3  converts an annualized value to a present value, a first cost in this case, of  $94.72. In this incredibly low bar scenario, with no O&M costs and no depreciation or taxes, we cannot allow the capital cost or first cost to exceed $94.72 per kWhr of capability or a delivery cost from storage of $0.05 per kWhr is never possible. A person can explore other interest rates, and time periods by looking up conversion factors on a suitable table like this one.

Using the average cost of vanadium over the past twenty years, and a factor of 7.2 to turn V2O5 price into cost of electrolyte, the cost of electrolyte alone precludes ever delivering stored energy at $0.05 per kWhr โ€“ its alleged infinite life matters not at all.

Conclusions

These projects may change form significantly as DOE says โ€œSelection for award negotiations is not a commitment by DOE to issue an award or provide funding. Before funding is issued, DOE and the applicants will undergo a negotiation process, and DOE may cancel negotiations and rescind the selection for any reason during that time.โ€

Nonetheless, I donโ€™t see how any but one of the projects actually demonstrates long duration storage. Most provide a couple of days storage at most, at small power, and without guarantee that a facility relying on them for backup wouldnโ€™t have to resort to rationing. In several cases the technology supplier has already built projects to the proposed scale, meaning that these are not really โ€œtechnology demonstrationsโ€ in the ordinary use of that term. The lack of truly long term projects in this list may reflect that there were almost no long duration proposals to choose from.

A large number of recent essays or analyses have shown that a goal of 100 hours of replacement energy, though called long duration, is far below adequate capability to avoid rolling blackouts and grid collapse. Some estimates run above 1,000 hours. Projects cited here are too small and too burdened with politics to โ€œaccelerate the development of long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologiesโ€.

Alas, we await true demonstrations of capability and cost.   

References:

1-One of the most grating aspects of government projects is the perceived need for cute acronyms โ€“ in this case even including FUZES. Fuzes are what set off bombs. Long ago our energy projects had fun names, like, say โ€œProject Gasbuggyโ€, that really did employ a fuze.

2-Sumitomo has made a nice video about how these batteries operate, even so it is full of marketing blather https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSsqCazP1V0

3-Flow batteries for grid-scale energy storage: Guiding future research pathways, by

Nancy W. Stauffer, January 25, 2023, https://energy.mit.edu/news/flow-batteries-for-grid-scale-energy-storage/

4-The two MIT researchers highlighted in [3] make a perfectly reasonable point that the low capital cost of a battery system can be negated by a high lifetime cost. However, even if the only cost of a battery system is its fixed first cost, if that cost is very high then time preference of money, reasonable interest rates in other words, make a long pay-back period untenable.

5-Zhicheng Xu, et al, Review of zinc dendrite formation in zinc bromine redox flow battery, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews Volume 127, July 2020, 109838

6-Hyeon Sun Yang, et al, Critical rate of electrolyte circulation for preventing zinc dendrite formation in a zincโ€“bromine redox flow battery, Journal of Power Sources Volume 325, 1 September 2016, Pages 446-452

7-Yuchuan Shi, et al, An Overview and Future Perspectives of Rechargeable Zinc Batteries, Small 2020, 16, 2000730, DOI: 10.1002/smll.202000730

8-Elements of a thermal storage system were discussed in the WUWT guest blog about why is energy difficult to store.

Climate Loss and Damage Failsย Again

A crucial meeting on climate “loss and damages” ahead of COP28 ended in failure Saturday, with countries from the global north and south unable to reach an agreement, according to sources involved in the talks. The agreement to set up a dedicated fund to help vulnerable countries cope with climate “loss and damage” was a flagship achievement of last year’s COP27 talks in Egypt.ย 

From Science Matters

byย Ron Clutz

The big news this week is the  breakdown of Climate โ€œLoss and Damgeโ€ talks in preparation for the Dubai COP to start end of November.  The news report is repeated widely with the same headline and content. Example from Jakarta Post, Oct. 21, 2023:  Climate โ€˜loss and damageโ€™ talks end in failure

A crucial meeting on climate โ€œloss and damagesโ€ ahead of COP28 ended in failure Saturday, with countries from the global north and south unable to reach an agreement, according to sources involved in the talks. The agreement to set up a dedicated fund to help vulnerable countries cope with climate โ€œloss and damageโ€ was a flagship achievement of last yearโ€™s COP27 talks in Egypt.

But countries left the details to be worked out later. A series of talks held this year have tried to tease out consensus on fundamentals like the structure, beneficiaries and contributors โ€” a key issue for richer nations who want China to pay into the fund.

The failure โ€œis a clear indication of theย deep chasm between rich and poor nationsโ€, Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy for Climate Action Network International, said in a statement to AFP on Saturday.ย โ€œDeveloped countriesย must be held accountable for their shameless attempts toย push the World Bank as the host of the fund,ย their refusalย toย discuss the necessary scale of finance,ย and their blatantย disregard for their responsibilitiesโ€ย under the terms of already established international climate agreements, he said.

More in depth reporting comes from Climate Home News article World Bank controversy sends loss and damage talks into overtime. 

At Cop27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, governments tasked the committee with working out what a new loss and damage fund for climate victims should look like and present their proposals to Cop28 in November.

The fund is supposed to channel money to people who have suffered
loss and damage caused by climate change. This could mean rebuilding homes
after a hurricane or supporting farmers displaced by recurrent drought.
Failure to reach consensus risks delaying support to those in need.

But developing countries were incensed by a proposal to host the fund at the World Bank, painting it as a US power grab. And rich-poor divides persisted on how to define the โ€œvulnerableโ€ groups eligible for funds and who gets to control spending.

Pedro Luis Pedroso Cuesta is a Cuban diplomat and chair of the G77+China bloc, which represents all the developing countries.

Speaking from Aswan, he told reporters on Thursday: โ€œAt this late hour, a small group of nations responsible for the most significant proportion of the stock of greenhouse gases have tried to bargain potential support for a Fund on one side with eligibility and administrative arrangements.โ€

Developing nations have argued that the World bank is too slow, inefficient,
unaccountable and lacks the organisational culture to tackle climate change.

He said that consultations with the Washington-DC based bank had โ€œdisplayed clearlyโ€ that it was โ€œnot fit for purpose in relation to what weโ€™re looking forโ€ and the fund should be set up as part of the United Nations instead.

Who benefits?

The second main division is over which countries are prioritised for funding. Developed countries want the funds to be allocated โ€œbased on vulnerabilityโ€.

There is no clear definition of vulnerability and Cuesta said this criteria would impede the fundโ€™s ability to respond to recent climate-related floods in middle-income countries like Pakistan and Libya.

Developing countries fear that in practice โ€œvulnerabilityโ€ criteria mean funds will be restricted to just the worldโ€™s least developed countries (LDCs) and small islands developing states (Sids).

The 46 LDCS are mostly in Africa and parts of Asia. Major nations like
China, India, Brazil, Nigeria and South Africa are neither LDCs or Sids.

Further splits include developing nations wanting a target of $100 billion of funding a year by 2030 to be included and developed countries wanting to earmark budgets for slow onset events, recovery and reconstruction and small countries.

Negotiators have almost agreed one thorny issue though. The US had pushed for the fundโ€™s board to include seats for nations that paid into the fund, sparking accusations that they were trying to rig the board in rich nationsโ€™ favour.

Friday morningโ€™s draft said there would be 12 board members from developed countries and 14 from developing ones. There could also be non-voting members representing indigenous peoples and climate-induced migrants, although negotiators have yet to agree that.

Climate Loss and Damage is a Legal and Moral House of Cards

Mike Hulme explained the house of cards underlying the claims for compensation from extreme weather loss and damage.  He addressed this directly in his 2016 article Can (and Should) โ€œLoss and Damageโ€ be Attributed to Climate Change?.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

One of the outcomes of the eighteenth negotiating session of the Conference of the Parties (COP18) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, held in Doha last December, was the agreement to establish institutional arrangements to โ€œaddress loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change.โ€ This opens up new possibilities for allocating international climate adaptation finance to developing countries. A meeting this week in Bonn (25โ€“27 February), co-organized by the UN University Institute for Environmental and Human Security and the Loss and Damage in Vulnerable Countries Initiative, is bringing together various scholars and policymakers to consider how this decision might be implemented, possibly by as early as 2015.

At the heart of the loss and damage (L&D) agenda is the idea of attributionโ€”that specific losses and damages in developing countries can be โ€œassociated with the impacts of climate change,โ€ where โ€œclimate changeโ€ means human-caused alterations to climate. It is therefore not just any L&D that qualify for financial assistance under the Convention; it is L&D attributable to or โ€œassociated withโ€ a very specific causal pathway.

Developing countries face some serious difficultiesโ€”at best, ambiguitiesโ€”
with this approach to directing climate adaptation finance.

This is particularly so given the argument that the new science of weather attribution opens the possibility for a framework of legal liability for L&D, which has recently gained prominence (see here and here). Weather attribution science seeks to generate model-based estimates of the likelihood that human influence on the climate caused specific weather extremes.

Weather attribution should not, however, be used to make the funding of climate adaptation in developing countries dependent on proving liability for weather extremes.

There are four specific problems with using the post-Doha negotiations on L&D to advance the legal liability paradigm for climate adaptation. First, with what level of confidence can it be shown that specific weather or climate hazards in particular places are caused by anthropogenic climate change, as opposed to a naturally varying climate? Weather attribution scientists claim that such knowledge is achievable, but this knowledge will be partial, probabilistic, and open to contestation in the courts.

Second, even if such scientific claims were defendable, how will we define โ€œanthropogenic?โ€ Weather attribution scienceโ€”if it is to be used to support a legal liability paradigmโ€”needs to be capable of distinguishing between the meteorological effects of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and those from land use change, and between the effects of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, black carbon (soot), and aerosol emissions. Each of these sources and types of climate-altering agents implicates different social and political actors and interests, so to establish liability in the courts, any given weather or climate hazard would need to be broken down into a profile of multiple fractional attributions. This adds a further layer of complexity and contestation to the approach.

Third, L&D may often be as muchโ€”or moreโ€”a function of levels of social and infrastructural development as it is a function of weather or climate hazard. Whether or not an atmospheric hazard is (partially) attributable to a liable human actor or institution is hardly the determining factor on the extent of the L&D. A legal liability framework based on attribution science promotes a โ€œpollutionist approachโ€ to climate adaptation and human welfare rather than a โ€œdevelopmentalist approach.โ€ Under a pollutionist approach, adaptation is primarily about avoiding the dangers of human-induced climate change rather than building human resilience to a range of weather risks irrespective of cause. This approach has very specific political ramifications, serving some interests rather than others (e.g., technocratic and centralized control of adaptation funding over values-centered and decentralized control).

Finally, if such a legal framework were to be adopted, then what account should be taken of โ€œgains and benefitsโ€ that might accrue to developing countries as a result of the impacts of climate change? Not all changes in weather and climate hazard as a result of human influence are detrimental to human welfare, and the principle of symmetry would demand that a full cost-benefit analysis lie at the heart of such a legal framework. This introduces another tier of complexity and contestation.

Following Doha and the COP18, the loss and damage agenda now has institutional force, and the coming months and years will see rounds of technical and political negotiation about how it may be put into operation.ย This agenda, however, should not place climate adaptation funding into the framework of legal liability backed by the new science of weather attribution.

Hulme goes more deeply into the Loss and Damage difficulties in his 2014 paper Attributing Weather Extremes to โ€˜Climate Changeโ€™: a Review.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

In this third and final review I survey the nascent science of extreme weather event attribution. The article proceeds by examining the field in four stages: motivations for extreme weather attribution, methods of attribution, some example case studies and the politics of weather event Attribution.

Hulme concludes by discussing the political hunger for scientific proof in support of policy actions.

But Hulme et al. (2011) show why such ambitious claims are unlikely to be realised. Investment in climate adaptation, they claim, is most needed โ€œโ€ฆ where vulnerability to meteorological hazard is high, not where meteorological hazards are most attributable to human influenceโ€ (p.765). Extreme weather attribution says nothing about how damages are attributable to meteorological hazard as opposed to exposure to risk; it says nothing about the complex political, social and economic structures which mediate physical hazards.

And separating weather into two categories โ€” โ€˜human-causedโ€™ weather
and โ€˜tough-luckโ€™ weather โ€“ raises practical and ethical concerns about
any subsequent investment allocation guidelines which excluded
the victims of โ€˜tough-luck weatherโ€™ fromย benefitingย from adaptation funds.

Synopsis of this paper is atย X-Weathermen are Back!

Integrated Storm Activity Annually over the Continental U.S. (ISAAC)

Andrew Forrestโ€™s Climate Alarmism: A Misguided Crusade

Billionaire Andrew Forrestโ€™s company, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., the worldโ€™s No. 4 iron ore producer and a major greenhouse gas emitter, is ending its use of voluntary carbon offsets.

From Watts Up With That?

Mining tycoon Andrew Forrest has embarked on a global mission, armed with a quiver of climate warnings and a bow of alarmist rhetoric. His target seems to be the rational and nuanced discourse in the climate debate. Forrestโ€™s arrows, however, seem to be missing the mark, veering into the realms of exaggeration and dramatic flair.

โ€œAndrew Forrest has warned climate experts in Australia that โ€œlethal humidity is hereโ€ and needs to be stopped, part of a message he says he was told to spread by the White House, New Delhi and Beijing.โ€https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/twiggy-takes-his-dark-warning-on-climate-to-universities/news-story/eb55763e5c7092173e319892239b01c6

Forrestโ€™s approach, marked by a sense of urgency and a barrage of alarming statements, seems to be more about creating a spectacle than fostering a genuine and constructive discussion on climate issues. His call for experts to โ€œverifyโ€ the journal articles and images he presents appears more as a tactic to bolster his narrative rather than an open invitation for scrutiny and discussion.

โ€œHe encouraged the experts in the room to โ€œlook upโ€ and โ€œverifyโ€ the many journal articles he referenced in his slideshow that were attached to confronting images of โ€œhumidity deathโ€.โ€https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/twiggy-takes-his-dark-warning-on-climate-to-universities/news-story/eb55763e5c7092173e319892239b01c6

His portrayal of โ€œlethal humidityโ€ and the catastrophic impacts of global warming, while vivid, seems to lack a foundation of balanced and objective analysis. The narrative, filled with images of doom and gloom, appears to be a carefully crafted tapestry of alarmist rhetoric.

โ€œEarthโ€™s humidity increases by about 7 per cent per one degree of warming, Dr Forrest warned. โ€œI need everyone to realise that global warming is accelerating. And that is accelerating humidityโ€ which was then driving violent storms, flood and cyclones, he said.โ€https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/twiggy-takes-his-dark-warning-on-climate-to-universities/news-story/eb55763e5c7092173e319892239b01c6

Forrestโ€™s interactions with global leaders and institutions such as the White House, New Delhi, and Beijing, while intriguing, raise questions about the nature and motive of his climate crusade. Is this a genuine effort to address climate issues, or is there a more nuanced agenda behind this global campaign?

โ€œโ€œThe resources weโ€™re lacking โ€ฆ is not cash โ€ฆ The argument here is that weโ€™ve got to allocate the capital in the right way. Weโ€™ve got to remove all policies that deter the prevention of global warming. Iโ€™m here because Iโ€™ve spoken to New Delhi. Iโ€™ve spoken to Beijing. Iโ€™ve spoken to the White House. And theyโ€™ve said, get this message out. So I said, Iโ€™m gonna do that.โ€https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/twiggy-takes-his-dark-warning-on-climate-to-universities/news-story/eb55763e5c7092173e319892239b01c6

In conclusion, while Forrestโ€™s intentions might be noble, however misguided, his approach seems to be marred by exaggeration and a lack of nuanced discussion. His climate crusade, while grand in its presentation, leaves much to be desired in terms of fostering a rational and constructive discourse on climate issues.

Beware the offshore wind oligarchy

Surprise , surprise. In New York the State rejected a large scale request from a bunch of developers for price increases averaging over 50%.

From ย CFACT

Byย David Wojick

The Atlantic coastal states are painting themselves into a financial corner with offshore wind targets and mandates. These purchase requirements may be creating a sellerโ€™s market for offshore power providers. Even worse, given that there are only a handful of developers it may well become an oligopoly market. If so then the question is how high the prices to the states will go?

This alarming possibility is in sharp contrast to how the situation is being reported. Some developers have bought out their existing power purchase (supply) agreements as uneconomical. In New York the State rejected a large scale request from a bunch of developers for price increases averaging over 50%, on the grounds that it violated their competitive procurement policy.

These events have been reported as serious setbacks for the industry, but in every case the developers are expected to rebid the PPAs at much higher prices. In fact these States are rushing to get new procurements underway. Other states are doing likewise.

The New York developers can hardly be expected to bid lower than they already asked for, as that would suggest their ask was dishonest. They may well bid higher, arguing that their costs have continued to increase. Developers for other states are likely to want similar amounts.

The driver here may be the huge targets already set by the states. Reports often cite the Biden target of 30,000 MW but the combined state targets are much bigger. Just New York, New Jersey and Virginia sum to over the Biden target. The combined targets from Maine to North Carolina exceed a whopping 50,000 MW of offshore wind capacity.

Given the huge targets the question is how high a price will these states eat? If I were the developers I would come in very high. As the saying goes, it is easy to go down but hard to go up.

Not only is it a mandated sellerโ€™s market, it has the makings of an oligopoly. These are short term procurements so the only viable bidders are those ready to build. That is a very small number of developers, perhaps a dozen or so, if that. For each state there may only be a very small number that can deliver to them.

There are lots of leases but it takes 5 years or more to get to the construction stage. Even though the Environmental Impact Statements are a cruel joke on the environment, they still require a lot of research. Smoke and mirrors take time to build.

So I would not be surprised if the bids on the first stateโ€™s procurement were very high and they kept getting higher, state by state and procurement by procurement. Of course the states will scream and squawk. They may even reject these high prices at first, but they have huge targets and mandates to meet. The developers are mostly big, global companies so they can afford to take their time, holding out for their high prices.

This particular issue storm is going to be very interesting. Nor will it be over quickly. Green politics meets green business head on. We are talking about something like $200 billion in offshore wind projects. A titanic struggle.

Of course it is possible the states will simply ditch the targets, or slip them harmlessly into the future, so they can repeatedly reject the high bids. This might even wipe out offshore wind, which is what it deserves. Watching that happen, perhaps even helping it along, could be great fun.

Stay tuned to CFACT as this wacky green drama unfolds.

Author


David Wojick

David Wojick, Ph.D. is an inDr. David Wojick is an independent policy analyst and senior advisor to CFACT.

As a civil engineer with a Ph.D. in logic and analytic philosophy of science, he brings a unique perspective to complex policy issues.

His specializes in science and technology intensive issues, especially in energy and environment.

As a cognitive scientist he also does basic research on the structure and dynamics of complex issues and reasoning.

This research informs his policy analyses. He has written hundreds of analytical articles.

Many recent examples can be found at https://www.cfact.org/author/dwojick/ Often working as a consultant on understanding complex issues, Dr. Wojick’s numerous clients have included think tanks, trade associations, businesses and government agencies.

Examples range from CFACT to the Chief of Naval Research and the Energy Department’s O๏ฌƒce of Science.

He has served on the faculty of Carnegie Mellon University and the sta๏ฌ€ of the Naval Research Laboratory.

He is available for con๏ฌdential consulting, research and writing.

Antarctic Sea Volume Higher Than In Theย 1980s

More honest reporting is required from media outlets, climate scientists and government bodies about the true nature of change, good news as well as bad, instead of highly selective reporting or misreporting to build an alarmist narrative.

Mountains in Antarctica and ice (front) floating in the Antarctic Sea are seen in this photo taken Dec. 17, 2016, from a helicopter of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force carrying people and supplies to Showa Station, a Japanese research facility on the Antarctica, from the icebreaker Shirase. (Kyodo) ==Kyodo

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

NOAAโ€™s Zachary Labe has updated the Antarctic sea ice data for September.

As the first chart shows, sea ice extent is still the lowest on record:

But the ice is much thicket then normal in places, particularly around the Peninsula:

As a result the volume is not a record low. At the time of year, the volume was actually lower in three years during the early 1980s

You will recall that when the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) goes negative, as it has been for most of this year, northerly winds tend to push polewards, both bringing milder air which melts the ice, and also pushing ice south, thus making it thicker:

https://niwa.co.nz/climate/information-and-resources/southern-annular-mode

The SAM was also strongly negative between 1980 and 1983, and as a consequence sea ice extent and volume were also much lower than average:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/month_aao_index.shtml

Electric cars risk becoming uninsurable โ€“ โ€˜Difficulty pricing battery repairs forcing insurers to refuse coverโ€™

Disaster for EV drivers as their cars risk becoming โ€˜uninsurableโ€™ due to battery repair costs. The battery is the most expensive single component of an electric car and also presents dangers when it is damaged.

From ClimateDepot.com

Byย Marc Morano

https://mailchi.mp/b5a058bb108f/electric-cars-risk-becoming-uninsurable-199212?e=0b1369f9f8

Net Zero Samizdat

21 October 2023

1) Electric cars risk becoming uninsurable
The Daily Telegraph, 21 October 2023

2) Nearly 50% of EV owners chose ICE vehicle for subsequent purchase, S&P Global Mobility study shows
RDN News, 19 October 2023

3) Tesla joins GM, Ford in slowing EV factory ramp as demand fears spread
Reuters, 19 October 2023

4) China restricts exports of graphite, key mineral used for making EV batteries
Investopedia, 20 October 2023

5) After $280 billion wipeout, green stocks confront soaring debt costs
Bloomberg News, 20 October 2023

6) Merryn Somerset Webb: The Tyranny of ESG has run its course
Bloomberg, 20 October 2023

7) Philip Pilkington: The green-energy bubble is about to burst โ€” and thanks to Biden, taxpayers will suffer
New York Post, 19 October 2023

8) Gas deals beyond 2050 show reality gap on Europeโ€™s climate goals
Bloomberg, 21 October 2023

9) Greenpeace loses legal challenge to UKโ€™s new North Sea oil and gas licences
Reuters, 19 October 2023

10) Hostile political attitude to North Sea oil and gas threatens energy security
Watt-Logic, 20 October 2023

1) Electric cars risk becoming uninsurable
The Daily Telegraph, 21 October 2023

Electric cars risk becoming effectively uninsurable as analysts struggle to put a price on battery repairs, the researcher for the car insurance industry has said.

Jonathan Hewett, chief executive of Thatcham Research, the motor insurersโ€™ automotive research centre, said a lack of โ€œinsight and understandingโ€ about the cost of repairing damaged electric car batteries was pushing up premiums and resulting in some providers declining to provide cover altogether.

Electric cars can be particularly expensive to repair, costing around a quarter more to fix on average than a petrol or diesel vehicle. Experts have previously warned electric vehicles are being written off after minor bumps because of the cost and complexity of fixing their batteries.

Mr Hewett said: โ€œThe challenge is that we have no way of understanding whether the battery has been compromised or damaged in any way.

โ€œThe threat of thermal runaway means that a catastrophic fire can take place if the cells of the battery have been damaged in a collision.

โ€œWhat weโ€™re struggling to understand at the moment is how we approach that diagnostic technique.

โ€œItโ€™s like a doctor trying to understand whatโ€™s wrong with you without any notes or an X-ray.โ€

John Lewis Financial Services stopped providing car insurance for electric cars last month for new and existing customers, as its underwriter Covรฉa analysed risks and costs.

Aviva removed insurance products for the Tesla Model Y earlier this year before restoring them several months later.

Vehicle repair costs rose 33pc over the first quarter of 2023 compared to 2022, helping to push annual premiums to record highs, according to the Association of British Insurers.

Average electric car insurance costs rose 72pc in the year to September, compared to 29pc for petrol and diesel models, according to Confused.com.

Mr Hewett said premiums would eventually begin to level out and match those of petrol and diesel cars once actuaries had the tools needed to better understand the risks of insuring electric cars, saying the issue would likely be โ€œshort termโ€.

However, he added: โ€œThe battery is an extremely expensive component of an electric vehicle and until we find efficient ways of dealing with it we have the challenge of high premiums for electric vehicles, which nobody wants.โ€

Some customers are now being quoted over ยฃ100 a week to insure their electric vehicles, with others reporting premiums doubling or tripling compared to a year before.

One reason attributed to the steep rise in the cost of electric car repairs stems from recommendations for electric cars to be kept 50ft apart in repair yards over fears they might explode.

Government guidelines suggest electric vehicles with damaged batteries should be โ€œquarantinedโ€ from other cars due to the risk of battery fires, which are typically harder to put out than fires in petrol or diesel cars.

The London Fire Brigade has warned that fires involving lithium batteries are the fastest-growing fire risk in London, after it was called out to 87 e-bike and 29 e-scooter fires in 2022.

Parisโ€™s transport operator withdrew 149 electric buses from operation last year after two ignited on separate occasions.

The website Tesla-Fire.com lists 25 reports of Teslas catching fire globally since the beginning of 2023.

Thatcham Research said insurers would need to spend an additional ยฃ900m a year on quarantine facilities for damaged cars as a result of the safety measures by 2035, as more battery-powered vehicles take to the roads, with the changes forecast to add ยฃ20 a year onto all car insurance premiums.

Conservative MP Greg Smith, who sits on the Commons transport committee, said: โ€œ[The lack of battery diagnostics] is yet another reason why electric vehicles arenโ€™t remotely suitable for the mass market yet and why we should be looking to other technologies, like synthetic fuels and hydrogen, that will be more reliable and friendly to the planet.โ€

2) Nearly 50% of EV owners chose ICE vehicle for subsequent purchase, S&P Global Mobility study shows
RDN News, 19 October 2023

Nearly half of households with non-Tesla electric vehicles (EVs) made an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle their next auto purchase, according to a new analysis.

It doesnโ€™t necessarily mean they sold their EV, as it could also indicate they purchased an additional family vehicle that is gasoline powered.

S&P Global Mobility said its findings indicated that the fuel type loyalty rate for mainstream EV households was 52.1% through July of this year. That figure represents those who remained true to EVs after buying their initial one.

โ€œBetween Tesla picking off EV intenders, and the draw of internal combustion strengths such as towing and payload, legacy ICE automakers face a battle to increase EV loyalty as they transition,โ€ S&P Mobility said. โ€œDoubling down on EVs to expand their lineups might be the required path to ensure continued loyalty to brand and fuel type.โ€

Tom Libby, S&P Global Mobilityโ€™s associate director for loyalty solutions and industry analysis, said the results arenโ€™t likely to be welcomed by automakers embracing the EV market.

โ€œThe OEMs are spending huge amounts of money to develop EVs,โ€ Libby said. โ€œThe last thing they want is for an EV owner to go back to ICE.โ€

The report attributed the โ€œloyalty struggle,โ€ in part, to an overall decrease in consumer willingness to purchase an EV. S&P data indicates that overall consumer consideration for buying an EV has dropped to 52% from an 81% high in 2021.

Full post

3) Tesla joins GM, Ford in slowing EV factory ramp as demand fears spread
Reuters, 19 October 2023

Tesla (TSLA.O) on Wednesday joined General Motors (GM.N) and Ford (F.N) in being cautious about expanding electric vehicle (EV) production capacity, citing economic uncertainties and underscoring fears of a slowdown in demand.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said he was worried that higher borrowing costs would prevent potential customers from affording its vehicles despite substantial price cuts, and that he would wait for clarity on the economy before ramping up its planned factory in Mexico.

โ€œPeople hesitate to buy a new car if thereโ€™s uncertainty in the economy,โ€ Musk said on a post-earnings call where he also talked about โ€œpaycheck-to-paycheckโ€ pressures on American workers. โ€œI donโ€™t want to be going into top speed into uncertainty.โ€

Muskโ€™s comments came after warning bells from other automakers and EV startups. It sent shares of Tesla down 8% Thursday as well as shares of other EV makers.

Full story

4) China restricts exports of graphite, key mineral used for making EV batteries
Investopedia, 20 October 2023

Chinaโ€™s Ministry of Commerce on Friday curbed exports of graphite, a critical mineral used in the production of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), which could accelerate a shortage of the mineral as EV demand soars worldwide.

The move, attributed to national security concerns, comes just days after the U.S. imposed new restrictions on exports of high-tech semiconductor chips to Chinese companies and their overseas units, escalating a trade war that has been brewing since 2018.

A shortage of graphite could present problems for EV makers worldwide, particularly at a time when consumer demand for EVs is booming. In 2020, the World Bank forecast graphite demand could soar 500% over the next three decades as EVs and other clean energy technologies become more widely adopted.

As such, EV makers like Tesla (TSLA), Rivian (RIVN), and Lucid Motors (LCID), along with traditional automakers that have developed their own EV models in recent years, could be at risk of production shortages. Kearney, a consulting firm, has warned that EV makers will need to drastically curb their reliance on Chinese graphite to reduce the risk of shortages and qualify for U.S. government subsidies.

Full story

5) After $280 billion wipeout, green stocks confront soaring debt costs
Bloomberg News, 20 October 2023

There appears to be no end in sight for the multi-billion dollar rout in renewable energy stocks, as a surge in borrowing costs threatens to squeeze returns in the sector for years to come.

The industry received a fresh blow on Friday, after a sales warning from equipment provider SolarEdge Technologies Inc. sent shares in solar stocks across the US and Europe tumbling as much as 25%.

Until recently expected to displace oil-and-gas companies from mainstream investment portfolios, clean energy stocks have instead become a no-go zone for many. Investors have been pulling money out, wiping over $280 billion from the market capitalization of green stocks globally since their August 2022 peak โ€” not quite boom-to-bust but a dramatic unraveling nonetheless for a market that was all the rage at the turn of the decade.

Now, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond creeping toward 5%, their fortunes could be about to take another hit. Higher yields make it costlier to fund the huge investment that clean energy requires, giving investors reason to fret about returns.

On top of that, the pace of decarbonization is in question and oilโ€™s march back toward $100 a barrel is renewing interest in fossil fuels. Add all that up and itโ€™s got investors asking if itโ€™s worth waiting around for green energy stocks to pay off.

โ€œIf companies are rolling out capacity and raising debt, but power prices and profitability are falling, thatโ€™s not a combination markets like,โ€ said Sharon Bentley-Hamlyn, a fund manager at Aubrey Capital Management. โ€œOur exposure to the renewables sector is considerably lower than at this time last year.โ€

SolarEdge Technologies sank as much as 25% in US premarket trading on Friday after it warned its third-quarter revenue will come in below its previous guidance range. Other firms in the sector, including Enphase Energy Inc., Sunrun Inc., SMA Solar Technology AG and Meyer Burger Technology AG also tumbled.

Full post

6) Merryn Somerset Webb: The Tyranny of ESG has run its course
Bloomberg, 20 October 2023

The idea of ESG has been changing since the day it was just a twinkle in a marketerโ€™s eye. Now itโ€™s heading into its inevitable end game.

In 2021, almost two-thirds of respondents said they considered environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors when investing. In 2022, that number was 60%, and this year itโ€™s 53%, according to the annual ESG Attitudes Survey from the Association of Investment Companies. Asked why they were over ESG, the top reason given was that performance was more important.

Next up: greenwashing. In 2021, only 48% of investors said they were โ€œnot convinced by ESG claims from funds.โ€ That number is now up to 63%. The same investors look like they are putting their money where their mouths are: The most recent data from the Investment Association showed a third month of outflows from the Responsible Investments category โ€” a record ยฃ448 million ($547 million) in August.

Anyone in doubt about the marketโ€™s attitude toward ESG investing today need only look at the share price of Impax Asset Management Group Plc. It rose 33 times from late 2015 to late 2021 โ€” and is down 70% since. Bubble, bubble crash.

The exodus makes complete sense. Thatโ€™s partly about performance. Itโ€™s a lot easier to feel pro-ESG when itโ€™s making you a big pile of money, as it was three years ago. Itโ€™s harder when you are underperforming โ€” and when the stuff you were told is absolutely not OK to touch with a barge pole is doing just fine. Note that the S&P Global Clean Energy Index is down 30% year-to-date and 12% over three years (low interest rates donโ€™t suit the kind of long-duration companies that make up this sort of index). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Energy gauge is flat year-to-date but up 43% over the last three years. In the UK, shares of Shell Plc hit an all time high this week.

But itโ€™s not just about performance. Itโ€™s also about the constantly changing definitions of ESG. Remember how defense stocks used to be Not OK. No longer. As soon as Russia invaded Ukraine, it became clear to all but the most ideologically blinkered that having adequate national defense is the very definition of a social good (assuming you believe in democracy and freedom, of course). In a war, defense is about as ESG as you can get. It is also one of the few areas where, sadly, you can be sure the money will keep pouring in: Right now only 11 members of NATO spend 2% of GDP on defense. That will change as everyone recognizes that short-term higher defense spending is the only option and that the long-term deterrence it provides is the best economic insurance money can buy.

The sands have shifted in energy investing, too. Is it good governance and a social essential to provide energy security to your population? Of course. Does that, in the short- and medium-terms at the very least, involve fossil fuels? Of course. But in the longer-term it also involves an awful lot of digging, something that now makes mining full-on ESG.

Full post

7) Philip Pilkington: The green-energy bubble is about to burst โ€” and thanks to Biden, taxpayers will suffer
New York Post, 19 October 2023

President Joe Biden has a dream โ€” and itโ€™s about to turn into a nightmare for American taxpayers.

America is โ€œwilling to do the hard work to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius,โ€ he declared at Aprilโ€™s Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate Change.

To hit this target, per the scientists with the presidentโ€™s ear, greenhouse gases must peak before 2025 and fall 43% by 2030.

Yet fossil fuels account for around 77.6% of US primary energy production.

So how does the president intend to reach his dream of โ€œnet zeroโ€ carbon emissions by 2050?

โ€œIโ€™ve signed a thing called the Inflation Reduction Act,โ€ he said in his speech, โ€œthe single largest investment in fighting climate change in history, which will reduce annual carbon emissions by 1 billion tons by 2030.โ€

Biden let the cat out of the bag: The act has very little to do with inflation, much less about reducing it.

Rather, with $6 allocated to renewable-energy projects for every $1 allocated to American manufacturing, the IRA is a big fat green-energy bill masquerading as industrial policy.

Itโ€™s not too much of a stretch to say the IRA is simply a repackaged version of the Green New Deal Democrats touted in the 2020 presidential-election campaign.

But Bidenโ€™s signature piece of domestic legislation is coming under pressure from Wall Street. The green bubble is about to burst.

While some might accuse the IRA as smacking of socialism, this is not quite true.

The legislation does pick winners and gives them tax breaks and subsidies. But these tax breaks and subsidies do not last forever.

At a certain point, the industries the bill subsidizes must be tested in the free market.

Because of the subsidies, however, these industries tend to be fragile when subjected to market pressures.

But when the IRA was passed in August 2022, the markets still seemed excited about the prospects for renewables firms.

This enthusiasm took off when the economy came out of lockdown.

Everyone was glad to finally get out of the house, and investors started to look around for the next big thing.

They thought that since the government was willing to intervene so aggressively in response to the COVID-19 outbreak with society-wide lockdowns, maybe the next big intervention would be in response to climate change.

Buoyed by this enthusiasm and ever-larger gobs of money the Federal Reserve forced into the system, renewables stocks took off like a rocket.

At its peak in January 2021, the S&P 500 Global Clean Energy Index had risen by around 325%.

It was against the backdrop of a soaring market for renewables stocks that Team Biden drew up plans for the IRA.

But everything has changed.

As interest rates have risen and excess money gets removed from the financial system by the Federal Reserve, markets are waking up to the fact many renewablesโ€™ companies are hothouse plants addicted to cheap credit.

The S&P Clean Energy Index is down 31% since the start of 2023 โ€” and 59% since its early-2021 peak.

In 2023โ€™s third quarter, global renewable energy funds have seen a record $1.4 billion in outflows.

The big green party on Wall Street is over, killed off by the party-poopers at the Federal Reserve.

Full post

8) Gas deals beyond 2050 show reality gap on Europeโ€™s climate goals
Bloomberg, 21 October 2023

Recent import contracts run beyond EUโ€™s net zero deadline

Two days after the European Union declared it will push for a global phase-out of most fossil fuels well before 2050, Shell Plc signed a 27-year agreement to buy Qatari liquefied natural gas for the Netherlands.

Itโ€™s not the first multi-decade deal to tie the bloc to dirty fuels beyond its targeted deadline โ€” just last week Franceโ€™s TotalEnergies SE signed a similar contract. The agreements highlight the challenge in reconciling the EUโ€™s ambition to reach climate neutrality by 2050 with its need to ensure energy security after last yearโ€™s historic crisis.

โ€œEnergy companies seem to be betting Europe will need more gas than politicians predict,โ€ said Christian Egenhofer, senior researcher at the Centre for European Policy Studies.

While Europe has made strides in replacing the cheap Russian gas imports that used to power its economy โ€” mostly by buying liquefied versions of the fuel from places like the US or Qatar โ€” jump-starting its transition to cleaner alternatives has proved difficult.

Governments across the region have prioritized expanding renewables after Russiaโ€™s invasion of Ukraine underscored Europeโ€™s need for independent sources of energy, which also cause less damage to the environment.

But high borrowing costs and uncertainty about the commercial viability of some technologies have stalled investments and raised questions about the reachability of Europeโ€™s climate goals.

Full story

9) Greenpeace loses legal challenge to UKโ€™s new North Sea oil and gas licences
Reuters, 19 October 2023

LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) โ€“ Britainโ€™s decision to authorise new licences for oil and gas exploration in the North Sea was lawful, Londonโ€™s High Court ruled on Thursday, dismissing a legal challenge by Greenpeace.

The environmental campaign group had argued Britainโ€™s failure to assess the greenhouse gases produced by consuming oil and gas โ€“ so-called end-use or downstream emissions โ€“ rendered its offshore energy plan unlawful.

But lawyers representing Britainโ€™s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said at a hearing in July that ministers were not required to assess end-use emissions, though they nonetheless considered them.

Judge David Holgate rejected Greenpeaceโ€™s case on Thursday, saying in a written ruling that the decision not to assess end-use emissions was not irrational.

A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson welcomed the decision.

Full story

10) Hostile political attitude to North Sea oil and gas threatens energy security
Watt-Logic, 20 October 2023

Kathryn Porter & James Porter

Despite the recent high-profile approval of the Rosebank oil field in the North Sea, the picture for domestic oil and gas production remains bleak.

The Conservative Government has recently spied an opportunity for re-election by deferring the costs of the energy transition at a time when many voters are worried about the high cost of living.

But it clings to the populist windfall tax on UKCS production, which was intended to neutralise complaints about high energy company profits, but in reality, harms independent producers while barely impacting the majors. Meanwhile the Labour Party is committed not only to retaining this harmful tax, it also wants to stop new licencing in the region, preventing new fields from being developed.

These policies are both short-sighted and counter-productive. No-one thinks the UK is going to stop using fossil fuels any time soon, so if we reduce domestic production, we will simply increase imports. Imported energy typically has higher production and transportation emissions, and reduces our energy security, which is unwise at a time of global uncertainty.

Falling North Sea production is worrying

According to the latest Annual Economic Report by Offshore Energies UK (โ€œOEUKโ€), North Sea oil production has fallen at its fastest rate in a decade as the windfall tax deters investment, and companies fear a further deterioration in the market outlook should the Labour Party win the next General Election. Crude oil output fell by 13% in the first six months of this year compared with the same period in 2022, to a record low of 16.2 million tonnes, roughly a quarter of what the UK produced at its peak in 1999.

Full post

Are Therapists Suffering Climate Anxiety Helping their Patients?

People are anxious about daily fake stories of the coming climate apocalypse. A lot of young people are getting mental sick thinking about the end of the world.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Reinforcing climate delusions, or being a relatable mental health worker?

Climate Change Is Keeping Therapists Up at Night

How anxiety about the planetโ€™s future is transforming the practice of psychotherapy.

By Brooke Jarvis
Oct. 21, 2023

Andrew Bryant can still remember when he thought of climate change as primarily a problem of the future. When he heard or read about troubling impacts, he found himself setting them in 2080, a year that, not so coincidentally, would be a century after his own birth. The changing climate, and all the challenges it would bring, were โ€œscary and sad,โ€ he said recently, โ€œbut so far in the future that Iโ€™d be safe.โ€

โ€ฆ

The smoke was the first sign that things were starting to change. People who live in the coastal Northwest often joke that the brief, beautiful bluebird summers are the reason everyone puts up with so many months of chilly gloom. But starting in the mid-2010s, those beloved blue skies began to disappear. First, the smoke came in occasional bursts, from wildfires in Canada or California or Siberia, and blew away when the wind changed direction. Within a few summers, though, it was coming in thicker, from more directions at once, and lasting longer. โ€ฆ

โ€ฆ

โ€ฆ โ€œPaying heed to what is happening in our communities and across the globe is a healthier response than turning away in denial or disavowal.โ€

,,,

Over and over, he read the same story, of potential patients whoโ€™d gone looking for someone to talk to about climate change and other environmental crises, only to be told that they were overreacting โ€” that their concern, and not the climate, was what was out of whack and in need of treatment. (This was a story common enough to have become a joke, another therapist told me: โ€œYou come in and talk about how anxious you are that fossil-fuel companies continue to pump CO2 into the air, and your therapist says, โ€˜So, tell me about your mother.โ€™โ€)

โ€ฆ

In a field that has long emphasized boundaries, discouraging therapists from bringing their own issues or experiences into the therapy room, climate therapy offers a particular challenge: Separation can be harder when the problems at hand affect therapist and client alike. โ€ฆ

โ€ฆRead more: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/21/magazine/climate-anxiety-therapy.html

The climate anxiety being felt by patients and their therapists is very real to them, however ridiculous it might seem to us.

The patients suffering climate anxiety obviously have trouble relating to therapists who donโ€™t believe in the climate crisis. But on the other hand, wouldnโ€™t a patient who believed she was being stalked by the tooth fairy have just as much trouble relating to a therapist who didnโ€™t take the tooth fairy seriously?

What if all their immediate peers and friends were also on the lookout for the terrifying tooth fairy? Thatโ€™s a lot of affirmation for a belief normal people would regard as utterly delusional.

And of course, both patients and therapists look on climate skepticism, or denial as they see it, as a maladjustment to a very real crisis. A conviction your non-believer therapist is mentally ill, along with all the affirmation they receive from other sources, probably makes it very difficult for the climate anxious to accept counselling and help from unbelievers.

What a mess.

Ultimately I guess it doesnโ€™t matter much if some people live in irrational fear of the tooth fairy, or live in irrational terror of an imminent climate apocalypse, so long as they can function well enough in their daily lives to take care of their kids, hold down a job, and obey the law.

If climate anxious therapists are the best people to help their climate anxious patients to live with and manage their fear, in a way which is compatible with an otherwise productive and happy life, perhaps that is better than the alternative.

Of course, there is one inescapable consequence for the rest of us, of allowing such climate delusions to stand unchallenged. The politicians such people vote for usually try to impose their delusions on the rest of us.

China Restricts Exports of Graphite, Key Mineral Used for Making EVย Batteries

Rough piece of carbon rock mineral in the form of graphite, an allotrope of carbon, known for its use in pencils

Graphite is a critical component in the production process of lithium-ion batteries used in EVs. China is the world’s biggest producer of graphite, and last year accounted for close to two-thirds of global production of the critical mineral.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

More bad news for the EV rollout!

https://www.investopedia.com/china-restricts-exports-of-graphite-a-key-mineral-used-for-making-ev-batteries-8364318

Do we really want to put our whole economy at the mercy of President Xi?

Greenlandโ€™s Tipping Point Cancelled? Claims Of A Runaway Melt Are Overblown

The hyperventilating is typical of researchers in search for more grant money. Journalists fall prey (too often wittingly) to anything they think will advance their climate change agenda. Temperature trends across the ice-free part of Greenland indicate cooling since 2001.

From NoTricksZone

Byย P Gosselinย onย 22. October 2023

By KlimaNachrichten

We have carefully read the definition of a โ€œtipping pointโ€ as conveyed by Potsdam Institute (PIK): โ€œItโ€™s like a pencil that you push further and further over the edge of a table with your finger. First nothing happens โ€“ then it falls.โ€ Thatโ€™s what theย PIK websiteย says.

Spatial distribution of global and regional tipping elements. The colors indicate the temperature range in which tipping is likely. Figure designed at PIK (under CC-BY license), scientific basis is Armstrong McKay et al., Science (2022).

Nothing can bring the pencil back to the table except a failure of gravity, which is not conceivable. Then PIK lists various โ€œelementsโ€ that are supposed to exhibit such behavior. To the ice sheet of Greenland one finds there

There are indications that the tipping point, which leads to an almost complete loss of ice in the long term (about 10,000 years), could probably be reached at a global warming of just under 1.5ยฐC (possible from 0.8ยฐC global warming, at the latest at 3ยฐC).โ€œ

Now thereโ€™s a paper on the subject has appeared in โ€œNatureโ€œ, which paints a different picture. It finds that even after a possibly โ€œcritical warming thresholdโ€ has been crossed, โ€œthe pencil does not fall down:

We find several stable intermediate ice-sheet configurations โ€ฆ that return to the present-day state if the climate returns to present-day conditions.โ€

in addition, models often determine the warming in Greenland (the root of the evil) using the mean global warming rate and then apply an โ€œArctic amplificationโ€ factor to each warming to determine the temperature swing in Greenland. The paper states:

Recently, it has been shown that the Arctic warms four times faster than the global average and thus substantially exceeds previous estimates and projections from climate models. Arctic amplification of this magnitude would reduce the safe space for the GrIS substantially. However, surface temperatures around Greenland might not increase that severely in the future.โ€

Observations since 2000 now show that during this period the warming of the Arctic is far from uniform:

The warming trends (in ยฐC / year) since 2000 of the Arctic region. The figure was generated with theย KNMI Climate Explorer. The โ€œArctic amplificationโ€ in the Arctic strikes in large parts of its European part, but in Greenland, of all places, the observed trends are much lower, especially in the area in the south and center of the island, which is particularly vulnerable to โ€œthawingโ€.

A constant factor, therefore, according to observations, is a further overestimation of the danger of the occurrence of โ€œgalloping ice meltโ€ in Greenland. The โ€œLast Generation โ€“ before the tipping pointsโ€ has perhaps been misled not only with the characteristics of tipping points (the โ€œfalling pencilโ€) , but also with the real dangers of the tipping elements.

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Crocodile Eats Womanโ€“Must Be Because Of Climateย Change!!

In Indonesia, particularly on Bangka Island, thereโ€™s a significant rise in saltwater crocodile attacks on humans. The increase in attacks is attributed to the extensive tin mining operations on the island, which have resulted in a loss of the crocodilesโ€™ natural habitats.ย No need to mention climate change.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Paul Kolk

They still canโ€™t resist mentioning climate change!

When Sariah went to fetch water in a pit near her home in Bangka Island, Indonesia, last September, she was unaware that a 3m-long saltwater crocodile had been resting in the crater, watching as she filled one of her buckets.

“The water was calm and there was no sign of a crocodile, so I decided to take a bath. Suddenly, it appeared out of nowhere and bit me, dragging me by my left arm into the water,” the 54-year-old says.

Indonesia sees the most saltwater crocodile attacks in the world. In the past decade, there have been about 1,000 attacks, killing more than 450 people. Nearly 90 of these attacks took place in Bangka and its neighbouring Belitung island, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

Bangka island is one of the richest tin-mining regions in the world.

The island โ€“ almost the size of Hawaii โ€“ has a population of one million, and about 80% of them are miners. More than 60% of the islandโ€™s land has already been converted into tin mines, says wildlife conservation group Walhi. Many of these mines are illegal.

Decades of tin exploitation have stripped the island of its forest, leaving behind thousands of vast craters and pits that resemble a lunar landscape. And as land deposits diminish, miners are turning to the sea.

That means saltwater crocodiles, which can also live in freshwater, are squeezed out of their natural habitats. Now they are living in abandoned and active mining pits close to peopleโ€™s homes, contributing to the rise in attacks.

Last yearโ€™s prolonged dry season, driven by climate change, dried up the well in front of Sariahโ€™s house. Her water supply was cut after she fell behind on payments for three months. So, the abandoned pits were the only source of water for her family and many others.

Five days after the attack on Sariah, a miner in the island was almost killed by a crocodile when he was washing tin ore in another pit. He suffered injuries in his head, shoulder and an arm.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67004770

There is no evidence that โ€œlast yearโ€™s prolonged dry season was driven by climate changeโ€.

On the contrary, drought in Indonesia is driven by El Nino cycles, along with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. El Nino = dry in Australia and Indonesia; La Nina means wet:

This year has seen a return to El Nino conditions. The Indonesian drought has also been exacerbated by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole this year:

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

The DMI index is an indicator of the east-west temperature gradient across the tropical Indian Ocean, linked to the Indian Ocean Dipole or Zonal Mode. It is calculated as the difference of the WTIO and SETIO indices. Extreme September-October-November rainfall in tropical East Africa has associated with periods of persistently high DMI (Black et al.,Mon. Wea. Rev., 2003; this paper can be accessed via the AMS Web site here).

In the full series case, monthly averages are shown by the plus signs, three month running mean filtered index values are shown by the shaded regions. In the “last two years” case, weekly averages are shown by the plus signs and the monthly average values are shown by the shaded regions.The weekly standard deviation of the index over the period 1982-2005 is indicated on the plot.

This index was defined by Saji et al. (Nature, 1999).

https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/sur/ind/dmi.php#:~:text=Dipole%20Mode%20Index%20%28DMI%29%20The%20DMI%20index%20is,the%20difference%20of%20the%20WTIO%20and%20SETIO%20indices.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

El Ninos, Dipoles and droughts have always happened, and always will.

Just as crocodiles still eat women!

Key Points: 

  1. Indonesia, specifically Bangka Island, has seen about 1,000 saltwater crocodile attacks in the past decade, resulting in over 450 fatalities.
  2. Intense tin mining on Bangka Island has led to vast environmental degradation, with over 60% of the island converted into mines. As a result, crocodiles are losing their habitats and moving closer to human settlements.
  3. Last yearโ€™s extended dry season, worsened by climate change, dried up many natural water sources, pushing locals to rely on water from these mining pits, which are now inhabited by crocodiles.
  4. Though crocodiles are a protected species in Indonesia, local traditions on Bangka Island often result in their killing after attacks, rather than their conservation.
  5. The Indonesian governmentโ€™s attempt to address illegal mining by legalizing it comes with a stipulation: miners must engage in habitat restoration. However, many doubt the effectiveness of this approach, given the lack of strong enforcement and minersโ€™ commitment to environmental conservation.