Tag: Antarctic

Satellites Reveal: Greenland and Antarctica Lost Over 11 Trillion Tons of Ice Since the 1970s — 84% Driven by Speeding Glaciers

Satellites show Earth lost more than 12 trillion tons of ice from Greenland and Antarctica over ~47 years (roughly 1979- 2023), according to a major study published in Scientific Data.

SMB models refer to Surface Mass Balance models (or, more precisely, the surface mass balance components derived from regional climate models).

A digital illustration showing glaciers and icebergs in Greenland and Antarctica, accompanied by text highlighting significant ice loss revealed by satellites since the 1970s.
AI generated by Grok

Satellites show Earth lost more than 12 trillion tons of ice from Greenland and Antarctica over ~47 years (roughly 1979- 2023), according to a major study published in Scientific Data.

Key findings from the international collaboration (led in part by the European Space Agency’s IMBIE initiative, incorporating NASA satellite data for a longer record):

Total ice loss: about 12.5 trillion tons (11.3 trillion metric tons). This is enough to cover the continental United States with ice roughly 5 feet (1.5 meters) deep.

Sea- level contribution: This melt alone raised global sea levels by about 1 inch (≈3.1 cm) since 1979 (on top of other factors). Greenland accounts for a somewhat larger share.

Main driver: ~5/6 (about 84%) of the loss comes from dynamic processes, warmer ocean water undercutting and melting ice sheets from below/sides, accelerating glacier flow into the ocean, rather than surface melting from warmer air.

Acceleration: Ice sheets were relatively stable in the 1970s-1990s; losses ramped up later, especially in the 2010s. A temporary slowdown around 2020- 2023 (partly due to heavy snowfall in East Antarctica offsetting West Antarctic losses) was viewed as short- term variability; the longer- term accelerating trend has resumed.

Methods: Combined data from dozens of independent surveys and 27 satellites (including earlier Landsat archives) for the longest continuous satellite- based mass- balance record of the two ice sheets.

Scientists involved (including Ines Otosaka of Northumbria University and Eric Rignot of UC Irvine) emphasize that the dynamical ice discharge raises concerns about potential tipping points or instability, particularly in parts of Antarctica, with implications for continued sea- level rise and coastal flooding risk even if warming stabilizes. Independent experts noted the multi- method approach increases confidence in the upward trend.

The article is an Associated Press report by Seth Borenstein (dated around mid- to- late September 2026 in various outlets).

This extends earlier satellite records (previously focused more on the 1990s onward) and aligns with the broader observed pattern of accelerating polar ice loss linked to climate change.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

SMB models refer to Surface Mass Balance models (or, more precisely, the surface mass balance components derived from regional climate models).

In the context of the Greenland and Antarctic ice- sheet mass- balance study we discussed:

What is Surface Mass Balance (SMB)?

SMB is the net gain or loss of mass at the surface of an ice sheet. It is calculated as:

SMB=snowfall accumulation−(meltwater runoff+sublimation+evaporation+blowing-snow erosion)\text{SMB} = \text{snowfall accumulation} – (\text{meltwater runoff} + \text{sublimation} + \text{evaporation} + \text{blowing-snow erosion})

Positive SMB means the ice sheet is gaining mass at the surface (mainly from snowfall). Negative SMB means net surface loss (mainly from melting and runoff).

Role of SMB models in the study

The paper uses regional climate models (RCMs) to estimate SMB. These models simulate the atmosphere– ice- sheet interactions at relatively high spatial resolution over the polar regions. Common examples used in ice- sheet research include:

  • MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional)
  • RACMO (Regional Atmospheric Climate Model)
  • HIRHAM
  • Other similar atmospheric models forced by global reanalyses (e.g., ERA5) or climate models

These models provide the time- varying SMB fields that are combined with satellite observations in the input- output method (also called the mass- budget method):

  • Ice discharge (how much ice flows into the ocean) is measured from satellites (velocity + ice thickness).
  • SMB is taken from the regional climate models.
  • Mass balance = SMB − ice discharge (plus any basal melt terms where relevant).

Key finding from the paper related to SMB

Of the total 11,309 ± 565 Gt of ice lost from Greenland and Antarctica (1979- 2023):

  • 84% came from ice dynamical imbalance (accelerated glacier flow and discharge into the ocean, largely driven by warmer ocean water).
  • 16% came from reduced SMB (mainly increased surface melting and runoff, especially in Greenland).

In Greenland, the split was roughly 67% dynamics / 33% SMB. In Antarctica, nearly all the loss was dynamical; SMB changes were smaller or even positive in some periods due to increased snowfall.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from the 1970s to 2023

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are major contributors to global mean sea- level rise and the largest source of uncertainty in future projections. This data descriptor compares and combines 42 independent estimates of ice- sheet mass balance derived from satellite observations of changes in ice flow, volume, and gravitational attraction.

It covers:

  • Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS): 1972- 2023
  • Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and its sectors (West Antarctica/WAIS, East Antarctica/EAIS, Antarctic Peninsula/APIS): 1979- 2023

Regional climate models are used to partition total mass balance into surface mass balance (SMB) and ice dynamical imbalance.

Key result: The ice sheets lost 11,309 ± 565 billion tonnes (Gt) of ice between 1979 and 2023. Glacier dynamical imbalance drove 84% of the loss; reduced surface mass balance accounted for the remaining 16%. The dataset supports tracking ice-sheet contributions to sea- level rise and constraining future projections.

Main quantitative findings

  • Combined (1979- 2023): 11,309 ± 565 Gt lost → 31.4 ± 1.6 mm global sea- level rise.
  • Antarctica (1979- 2023): 4,780 ± 513 Gt lost → 13.3 ± 1.4 mm sea- level rise. Essentially all of Antarctica’s losses were driven by ice dynamics.
  • Greenland (1972- 2023): 6,215 ± 467 Gt lost (average rate 119 ± 9 Gt yr⁻¹). ~67% from increased ice discharge, ~33% from reduced SMB. Greenland was near balance in the 1970s; losses rose from ~60 Gt yr⁻¹ in the 1980s to much higher rates later (e.g., hundreds of Gt yr⁻¹ in the 2010s). nature.com

Losses accelerated from the 1990s onward. A temporary slowdown in overall loss rates around 2020- 2023 (linked to high snowfall in East Antarctica and milder Greenland summers) is described as short- term variability rather than a change in the long- term trend.

Methods overview

Techniques: Input- output method (ice discharge and SMB models), satellite altimetry (volume change), and satellite gravimetry (mass change from gravity).

Satellites: Data from 27 missions, including early Landsat archives for velocity back to the 1970s.

Standardization: Individual estimates converted to monthly rates of mass change; reconciled into consensus time series with uncertainties. Peripheral glaciers/ice caps are accounted for where relevant.

Only mass changes that contribute to sea level are included (ice- shelf thinning/retreat and grounded ice below sea level are excluded from the sea-level contribution figures).

Data availability

Reconciled mass- balance time series (rates and cumulative anomalies for total mass, SMB, and dynamics, with uncertainties) are freely available at:


https://doi.org/10.5285/128c5e33-5224-4197-82f0-19dcc95b80a0

Code for aggregation is also openly available.

This extends previous IMBIE assessments (which focused more on the post- 1992 period) and provides the longest continuous satellite- based consensus record of the two ice sheets. The paper is open access.

Published:  Scientific Data volume 13, Article number: 1301 (2026)

DOI: 10.1038/s41597-026-08088-0

Authors: Lead authors include Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, and a large international team (IMBIE – Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise).

Abstract

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are major drivers of global mean sea level rise and are predicted to continue to do so in the future. However, they also represent the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise making robust estimates of observed ice sheet mass changes critical. Here, we compare and combine 42 independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from satellite observations of temporal changes in ice sheet flow, volume, and gravitational attraction to determine the ice sheet mass balance from 1972 (Greenland) and 1979 (Antarctica) until 2023. We then use regional climate models to partition the total mass balance into contributions associated with surface mass balance and ice dynamical imbalance. The ice sheets lost 11,309 ± 565 billion tonnes of ice between 1979 and 2023, with glacier dynamical imbalance driving 84% of the ice loss and surface mass balance the remainder. This dataset can be used to track the contribution of the ice sheets to sea level rise and constrain projections of future sea level rise.

Ancient Penguin Fossils Reveal How Antarctica Shifted from Warm Forests to Ice

A new study shows that Eocene penguin fossils from Seymour Island (off the Antarctic Peninsula) preserve chemical records of past climate and environmental change, acting as “chemical archives.”

The epoch began in extreme warmth and ended with the onset of major Antarctic glaciation.

AI generated by Grok

Eocene climates (roughly 56–34 million years ago) represent a major transitional phase in Earth’s Cenozoic climate history, shifting from extreme greenhouse (“hothouse”/“warmhouse”) conditions to the onset of the icehouse world.

The Eocene began after the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma), a short, intense hyperthermal event driven by massive carbon release. It then reached peak sustained warmth during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO, ~53–49 Ma), one of the warmest intervals of the past 65–100 million years. Global mean surface temperatures were typically ~10–14 °C (or more in peak estimates) warmer than pre-industrial levels, with some reconstructions placing EECO global means around 23–30 °C.

Key features of the early–middle Eocene greenhouse:

  • High atmospheric CO₂ — Estimates often range from ~500–1,600+ ppm (higher during hyperthermals and the EECO peak).
  • Reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient — Tropics were very warm (sea-surface temperatures sometimes >30–35 °C), while high latitudes were mild (Arctic and Antarctic coastal areas often ice-free or with only limited seasonal ice, supporting forests, including polar forests).
  • High sea levels — Up to ~150 m higher than today due to the lack of large ice sheets.
  • Wetter conditions in many regions, with monsoonal influences and higher precipitation at high latitudes.
  • Transient hyperthermals (brief extreme warming events) were common in the early Eocene “hothouse” state.

From the middle to late Eocene, a long-term cooling trend set in. By the late Eocene, climates were still warmer than today but progressively cooler, with increasing seasonality and the first signs of limited ice or glaciers in Antarctica’s highlands. Vegetation shifted from thermophilic (warm-loving) forests toward more cool-adapted or shrubby forms in polar regions.

The Eocene–Oligocene Transition (EOT, ~34 Ma) was the pivotal shift from greenhouse to icehouse conditions:

  • Rapid global cooling (deep-ocean and surface temperatures dropped several °C).
  • Permanent, large-scale Antarctic ice sheets formed (the first major continental ice sheet of the Cenozoic).
  • Atmospheric CO₂ declined significantly (a drop of roughly 40% or ~300+ ppm in key reconstructions is often invoked as the primary driver).
  • Ocean circulation changes (including progressive opening of Southern Ocean gateways like the Drake Passage) contributed to thermal isolation of Antarctica, but declining CO₂ is widely regarded as the dominant trigger.

The EOT marks the boundary between the “Warmhouse” state (prevailing through most of the Eocene) and the subsequent “Coolhouse” state.

During the early Eocene, Antarctica (including the Peninsula region around Seymour Island) experienced warm, humid, largely ice-free conditions with strong chemical weathering and high terrestrial runoff—consistent with the elevated titanium, silicon, and potassium signals found in early Eocene penguin bones.

By the middle to late Eocene, cooling reduced weathering intensity and terrestrial input. Permanent ice sheets only became established near the EOT.

In short, the Eocene records Earth’s last major greenhouse climate and the critical transition into the modern icehouse regime dominated by polar ice.

Proxy data (isotopes, biomarkers, fossils, and sediments) and climate models continue to refine details of temperatures, CO₂ levels, precipitation patterns, and the precise triggers of cooling and glaciation.

A new study shows that Eocene penguin fossils from Seymour Island (off the Antarctic Peninsula) preserve chemical records of past climate and environmental change, acting as “chemical archives.”

Researchers from China University of Geosciences (Beijing), led by Boyang Xia and colleagues, used non-destructive micro-X-ray fluorescence (µ-XRF) elemental mapping on penguin bones spanning the Eocene (roughly 56–34 million years ago).

Seymour Island holds one of the world’s richest and most continuous records of Eocene penguin fossils, covering the shift from relatively warm, humid early Eocene conditions to cooler middle and late Eocene climates.

Key findings include:

  • Older fossils (~55 million years old, early Eocene) show markedly higher levels of titanium (Ti), silicon (Si), and potassium (K).
  • These elevated signals are interpreted as reflecting stronger continental (land-based) weathering and greater terrestrial runoff/sediment input under warmer, wetter conditions.
  • Younger fossils from cooler intervals have much lower levels of these elements.
  • Patterns of iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), and sulfur (S) in the bones also record local marine sedimentary and early diagenetic (post-burial chemical) conditions.

The team noted practical challenges in scanning irregular bone surfaces without damage and positioned specimens carefully to minimize artifacts. They conclude that bone geochemistry can complement traditional methods (such as sediment cores and microfossils) for reconstructing Antarctic Peninsula paleoenvironments and weathering history.

The open-access paper, titled “Eocene penguin fossils as archives of Antarctic weathering and climate change: insights from micro-X-ray fluorescence elemental mapping,” was published in Fossil Record on 31 July 2026 (DOI: 10.3897/fr.29.192319). A press release summarizing the work appeared around 12 August 2026.

This builds on the long-known abundance of Eocene penguins (including large species) on Seymour Island during a time when Antarctica was still largely ice-free and more temperate, before major cooling and ice-sheet growth near the Eocene–Oligocene transition.

Eocene penguin fossils as archives of Antarctic weathering and climate change: insights from micro-X-ray fluorescence elemental mapping

Authors: Boyang Xia et al. (China University of Geosciences, Beijing; key contributors include Huaichun Wu and Quanguo Li).

Journal: Fossil Record 29(2): 575–587

Publication date: 31 July 2026

DOI: 10.3897/fr.29.192319

Provided: Pensoft Publishers 

Overview

This study demonstrates that Eocene penguin bones from Seymour Island (Isla Marambio), off the Antarctic Peninsula, function as chemical archives of past environmental conditions. Using non-destructive micro-X-ray fluorescence (µ-XRF) elemental mapping, the researchers analyzed the distribution of elements in fossil bones spanning the early to late Eocene. These fossils record Antarctica’s transition from warm, humid conditions to a cooler climate, particularly through signals of continental weathering and terrestrial sediment input.

Seymour Island preserves one of the world’s richest and most stratigraphically continuous records of Eocene penguin fossils (from formations such as La Meseta/Submeseta). These span a key interval of Antarctic climate evolution: relatively warm and humid early Eocene conditions through progressive cooling in the middle and late Eocene, prior to major ice-sheet expansion near the Eocene–Oligocene transition.

Methods

  • Samples: Fossil penguin bones of varying ages from Seymour Island, compared with extant penguin bones as controls.
  • Technique: Micro-X-ray fluorescence (µ-XRF) scanning to map elemental composition across bone surfaces without damaging the rare specimens. Irregular and curved bone surfaces posed practical challenges; specimens were positioned as horizontally as possible with a consistent scanning distance to minimize artifacts from surface height variations.
  • Analysis: Focused on elemental distributions and intensities, interpreted in the context of stratigraphic, sedimentological, and independent palaeoclimatic evidence.

Key Results

  • Early Eocene fossils (~55 million years old): Significantly higher levels of titanium (Ti), silicon (Si), and potassium (K).
  • Younger (middle/late Eocene) fossils: Much lower signals for these elements.
  • Interpretation of Ti-Si-K enrichment: Linked to intense chemical weathering on land and heavy terrestrial runoff/sediment input under warmer, more humid early Eocene conditions. Cooler intervals reduced weathering intensity and land-derived material delivery to the marine environment where the bones were buried. eurekalert.org
  • Additional patterns of iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), and sulfur (S) reflect local redox conditions and early diagenetic (post-burial) chemical changes in the marine sediments.

The paper’s structure covers elemental distributions in extant vs. fossil penguins, followed by discussion of weathering and element enrichment, the influence of depositional energy, and variations in redox conditions.

Significance and Conclusions

Penguin bone geochemistry provides a complementary proxy for reconstructing Antarctic Peninsula palaeoenvironments, weathering regimes, and climate change.

It can be used alongside traditional approaches such as marine sediment cores and microfossil analysis.

The work highlights how fossils preserve not only biological information but also records of external material inputs, depositional settings, and early diagenesis.

This non-destructive approach expands the utility of existing fossil collections for polar palaeoenvironmental research.

For the full open-access paper, figures, and supplementary data, see the Fossil Record page linked via the DOI above. A related press release summarizing the findings was issued by Pensoft Publishers around 12 August 2026.

Notable Cold Spell Hits Antarctic Interior in July 2026: One of South Pole’s Coldest Julys on Record, But Within Historical Variability

The July–early August 2026 cold at South Pole, Vostok, and related interior stations is real and statistically notable for the modern record.

The reported cold anomalies in Antarctica check out based on available data.

The July–early August 2026 cold at South Pole, Vostok, and related interior stations is real and statistically notable for the modern record. It wasn’t just “a bit chilly”—it was persistently extreme, with South Pole tying for one of its coldest Julys on record and Vostok running several degrees below its already brutal baseline.

Interior Antarctic plateaus can drop this low in winter due to radiative cooling under clear skies and the polar night, but the persistence and depth stand out.

Short-term vs. long-term:

One cold winter (or even a few) doesn’t refute multi-decadal warming. The Antarctic Peninsula has seen dramatic warming, ice shelf melt, and ecological shifts. Interior East Antarctica shows more mixed or stable-to-cooler signals in some datasets, partly due to stratospheric ozone recovery influencing circulation and regional dynamics. Global “polar amplification” is stronger in the Arctic; Antarctica is complicated by the Southern Ocean’s heat uptake and circumpolar currents.

Atmospheric drivers:

These deep colds often tie to strong high-pressure blocking, clear skies, and weakened heat transport from lower latitudes. Recent years have also seen contrasting extremes—like winter heatwaves on the Peninsula earlier in 2026. This highlights increased variability in some regions alongside overall energy imbalance from greenhouse gases.

Data context:

Records go back to the 1950s at South Pole. 2026’s July was cold but not unprecedented (e.g., 2004, 1997, etc., were colder). Provisional data can shift slightly with quality control. Satellite and reanalysis (ERA5) help fill gaps but have their own uncertainties over ice.

Antarctica isn’t a monolith:

  • Ice sheet mass balance: Overall, the continent is losing mass, especially in West Antarctica (dynamic thinning, marine ice sheet instability). East Antarctica has periods of gain from increased snowfall in a warmer atmosphere (Clausius-Clapeyron: warmer air holds more moisture → more snow when it precipitates).
  • Sea ice: Recent years showed record lows after prior highs—highly variable, influenced by winds, ocean heat, and storms.
  • Global linkage: A colder Antarctic interior in winter doesn’t contradict tropospheric warming or ocean heat content records. Energy is accumulating in the system; regional weather redistributes it.

Media often amplifies heat extremes or melt while underplaying cold records or recovery potential. However, selective cold-spotlighting can also create its own missing context by downplaying long-term indicators (e.g., glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, extreme heat frequency globally).

The study referenced aligns with observations that deeper, nuanced understanding (including uncertainties, adaptation, technological progress, and historical climate shifts) often reduces alarmist worry. Pure “headline science” or doom-focused narratives can increase anxiety without improving decisions. Conversely, dismissing risks entirely breeds complacency. Rational worry motivates; chronic anxiety can paralyze.

Constructive takeaways:

  • Track metrics holistically: Surface temps (one metric), ocean heat, ice mass, extremes distribution, and human responses (energy tech, resilience).
  • Regional realities matter: Polar winters will remain brutally cold for a long time. Impacts are greatest where variability meets vulnerability (coastal glaciers, ecosystems, infrastructure).
  • Uncertainty is real: Climate sensitivity, cloud feedback, deep ocean dynamics, and tipping elements have wide ranges. This justifies robust monitoring and no-regrets actions (e.g., R&D on nuclear/advanced energy, adaptation) over panic.

This cold event is a reminder of nature’s power and the limits of simplistic narratives. It doesn’t “disprove” warming physics, but it underscores that the climate system retains enormous variability and that interior Antarctica can still hit historic lows. For anxiety management: focus on verifiable data, probabilistic thinking, and actionable levers rather than worst-case storytelling.

The reported cold anomalies in Antarctica check out based on available data.

South Pole Station (Amundsen-Scott)

  • Provisional July 2026 monthly average: -64.3°C (−83.7°F), about 4.1°C below the 1991–2020 norm.
  • This ties with 1969 as one of the coldest Julys on record there (records back to 1957). It ranks among the top 10 coldest months overall.
  • Extreme minima below -70°C occurred on multiple days, consistent with severe winter conditions.
  • Into early August: Very cold readings continued, with Aug 1 showing a low around -73°C and a daily mean well below normal.

Vostok Station

  • Provisional July means around -71°C to -71.6°C, several degrees below average, and among the coldest Julys in its record (back to 1958).
  • Daily data showed prolonged periods of deep cold, with some days dipping toward -80°C.

These are notable cold anomalies for the Antarctic interior during polar winter, when such extremes are possible due to the long polar night, clear skies allowing radiative cooling, high elevation, and stable atmosphere. Recent reports also noted Concordia Station hitting -84.1°C in mid-July—the coldest global surface reading since 2012.

Here’s a comparison of the 2026 Antarctic winter (focusing on July, the core cold month) to historical records at key interior stations.

South Pole Station (Amundsen-Scott)

  • 2026 July provisional mean: -64.3°C (about 4.1°C below the 1991–2020 average).
  • This ties with 1969 for one of the coldest Julys and ranks in the top 10 coldest months overall in records since 1957.

Historical coldest Julys (monthly averages):

  • 2004: -66.9°C (coldest on record)
  • 1997: -65.8°C
  • 2006: -65.3°C
  • 1969: -64.3°C (tied with 2026)
  • 1965: -64.2°C

Other notable cold periods:

  • July 1997 was exceptionally cold overall.
  • Persistent extreme cold events, like the 78 consecutive days with maxima ≤ -50°C in 2012 (far longer duration than typical).
  • 1982 had the station’s all-time low of -82.8°C (June).

2026 specifics: 12 days with minima below -70°C (highest since 2006, which had 14). This indicates strong persistence of deep cold.

Vostok Station

  • 2026 July mean: Around -71 to -71.6°C, roughly 5–6°C below average, ranking as the fourth-coldest July in records since 1958. weatherandclimate.eu
  • Historical extremes: The all-time record low is -89.2°C (21 July 1983). July means can drop to the low -70s°C in cold years (e.g., 1983, 1987, 1997).
  • 2026 featured prolonged periods below -75°C to -80°C, with minima approaching -80°C on several days—very cold but not record-breaking for the station.

Broader Context Across Winters

  • Coreless winter pattern: Antarctic interior winters (April–September) show relatively stable deep cold with occasional sharp drops or warm intrusions. 2026 fits the “deep freeze” archetype driven by clear skies, high pressure, and limited meridional (north-south) heat transport.
  • Recent vs. older winters: Some of the coldest months on record occurred in the 1960s–2000s. Recent decades show high variability—e.g., warmer Peninsula winters in some years, but interior plateaus can still deliver strong cold outbreaks. 2012 stands out for duration of cold rather than peak intensity.
  • Concordia Station (another high-elevation interior site): -84.1°C in mid-July 2026 was the coldest global surface reading since 2012, but interior stations regularly hit -80°C+ in winter. The 2010 record there was colder (-84.7°C).

2026 ranks as notably cold (top-tier for South Pole July, strong for Vostok), especially in persistence and number of extreme cold days.

However, it is not unprecedented—colder or comparable winters occurred in 1969, 1997, 2004, 2006, etc. This reflects natural variability superimposed on any long-term trends.

This reflects natural variability superimposed on any long-term trends.

Interior Antarctica remains one of Earth’s most extreme winter environments, capable of producing deep cold even in a globally warmer world.

Climate Fact-Check March 2026

This compilation serves as a fact check on the top false claims made about climate change by the media in March 2026.

From The ClimateRealism

Guest Post by: The Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, The Heartland Institute, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Energy & Environmental Legal Institute, and the International Climate Science Coalition, and Truth in Energy and Climate.

Editor’s note: This compilation serves as a fact check on the top false claims made about climate change by the media in March 2026.

Planet Isn’t ‘Heating Faster Than Ever’ – Hailstorms or Tornadoes ARE NOT Worse – Disasters NOT Costlier – ‘Climate Goals’ Meaningless – Heatwaves NOT ‘Virtually Impossible’

Links: TIME Magazine article, UAH satellite data.
Links: Chicago Tribune story, NWS data.
Links: Sen. Whitehouse post, losses adjusted to GDP.
Links: The Daily Mail post, University of Edinburgh study.
Links: Gov. Newsom post, previous statements, projected total temperature reduction.
Links: Associated Press story, WWA study, NOAA station data, NCEI fort data.

Until next month, enjoy these and other great climate fact checks at:

ClimateRealism.com

ClimateDepot.com

Wattsupwiththat.com

Wrong, Daily Mail, Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier Isn’t on the Road to Collapse by 2067

The Daily Mail (DM) claims in “Antarctica ‘Doomsday Glacier’ COLLAPSE by 2067” that the Thwaites Glacier is on track for catastrophic failure within decades. This misleading framing gives a false impression of what science actually says about the issue. Observational data show ongoing ice loss and instability, but they do not establish an inevitable post-mid-century collapse. Further, the ice loss quantities cited are very small relative to the glacier’s total mass.

From ClimateRealism


By Anthony Watts

The Daily Mail (DM) claims in “Antarctica ‘Doomsday Glacier’ COLLAPSE by 2067” that the Thwaites Glacier is on track for catastrophic failure within decades. This misleading framing gives a false impression of what science actually says about the issue. Observational data show ongoing ice loss and instability, but they do not establish an inevitable post-mid-century collapse. Further, the ice loss quantities cited are very small relative to the glacier’s total mass.

The DM article leans heavily on projections suggesting that by 2067, Thwaites could lose on the order of 200 gigatons of ice annually. That number sounds dramatic by itself; it is not in the larger context.

The Thwaites Glacier is estimated to contain roughly 600,000 gigatons of ice. Even 200 gigatons represents a tiny fraction of the total mass – just 0.033 percent. As summarized in the Climate at a Glance review of Antarctic ice trends at Climate at a Glance – Antarctic Ice Melt, Antarctica holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by nearly 200 feet. However, while parts of West Antarctica are losing mass, total Antarctic ice trends are complex and vary regionally, with much of the continent experiencing net ice gain. A projected loss of 200 gigatons in a given year does not equate to imminent collapse of the Thwaites Glacier, much less the continent as a whole.

Figure 1: (click to enlarge) Comparison of satellite data for Antarctic ice mass loss. Cumulative ice mass loss on the left and that same data compared to the total mass of ice on the right. Data source: http://imbie.org. Graphs originally by Willis Eshenbach, adapted and annotated by Anthony Watts.

Precision matters. Percentages matter.

The DM article also implies that atmospheric warming via climate change is directly driving the glacier toward collapse. But direct field measurements tell a more nuanced story.

The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) deployed instruments beneath the ice shelf and directly measured intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) — relatively warm ocean water roughly 1°C above freezing — flowing beneath the glacier and melting it from below. That mechanism is oceanographic, not atmospheric. It involves shifting currents delivering subsurface heat under the ice shelf, not surface air temperature melting the glacier from above.

That distinction is important. The Thwaites Glacier sits in a region where ocean circulation patterns play a dominant role in basal melt rates. The delivery of warmer CDW onto the continental shelf is influenced by complex wind patterns, bathymetry, and ocean dynamics. Conflating that process with generalized “air temperature warming” confuses the physics.

None of this is to deny that the Thwaites Glacier is changing. Measurements show ongoing retreat, thinning, and acceleration in parts of the glacier system; something all glaciers do on occasion. Basal melting is occurring and satellite imagery shows some fracturing. Those are real observations. But the big leap from “instability is present” to “collapse by 2067” doesn’t pencil out unless questionable models are employed.

The measurements establish cause for attention. They do not, by themselves, prove inevitable collapse on any specific timetable. Ice-sheet systems are nonlinear and can reorganize. Whether retreat becomes self-sustaining and irreversible on human timescales depends on thresholds that remain uncertain. That is precisely why modeling studies differ in their projections.

It is also important to remember that sea-level rise is already incorporated into coastal planning frameworks based on measured trends. Global mean sea level has been rising at roughly three millimeters per year over recent decades. Even under high-end projections, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) describes recent rise in terms of feet, not dozens of feet, and emphasizes deep uncertainty regarding dynamic ice-sheet contributions.

The article’s framing suggests a dramatic mid-century tipping point, but science describes an evolving system with significant uncertainty.

Context also matters historically. Ice sheets, including Thwaites, have advanced and retreated repeatedly over geological time due to orbital cycles and ocean circulation changes. Over the past million years, glacial–interglacial cycles have followed a dominant natural pattern of roughly 100,000 years. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has likely collapsed and reformed in past warm periods — all before “climate change” became the universal boogeyman for anything that we see as abnormal. That does not trivialize current changes, but it underscores that these systems respond over centuries and millennia.

Finally, scale matters again. If the Thwaites Glacier contains roughly 600,000 gigatons of ice, a 200-gigaton annual loss represents about 0.033 percent of its mass per year. Even sustained at that rate — which is speculative — complete disintegration would take centuries, not decades. Careful tracking of the Thwaites Glacier and the ocean currents that drive its loss and expansion are merited, but the alarmingly misleading headlines such as the one posted by DM suggesting near-term collapse are not.

There is a pattern here. The Daily Mail has long demonstrated a preference for dramatic, attention-grabbing headlines that far oversell the actual story. Climate Realism has debunked its false, hyperbolic disaster scenario claims dozens of times. “Doomsday Glacier collapse by 2067” fits that formula perfectly — a bold date, a catastrophic label, and minimal context. That may drive clicks, but it does not accurately reflect the measured data or the scientific uncertainty involved.

Sea Level Rise: Less Alarmism?

“… model-observation discrepancies can arise from three causes: the observations could be wrong (unrealized biases etc.), the models are wrong (which can encompass errors in forcings as well as physics), or the comparison could be inappropriate…. [I]t may well be that these discrepancies will resolve themselves in the course of ‘normal’ model development … Or not….” – Gavin Schmidt, Real Science, May 31, 2025.

ChatGPT

From Master Resource

By Kennedy Maize

“… model-observation discrepancies can arise from three causes: the observations could be wrong (unrealized biases etc.), the models are wrong (which can encompass errors in forcings as well as physics), or the comparison could be inappropriate…. [I]t may well be that these discrepancies will resolve themselves in the course of ‘normal’ model development … Or not….” – Gavin Schmidt, Real Science, May 31, 2025.

One of the most enduring themes of the popular discussion of a man-made warming globe has been sea level rise as a result of the melting of ice from the planet’s two frigid poles.

Former Vice President Al Gore’s 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth” featured images of icebergs calving off the Antarctic continent. He proclaimed that if the world proceeded to warm at its current rate, worldwide sea levels would rise “20 feet.”

On Oct. 16, 2009, then Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and later presidential candidate and secretary of state, proclaimed, “Scientists project that the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013. Not in 2050, but four years from now.”

Last year, an Antarctic iceberg named A23a, floating in the southern ocean since 1986, the size of the state of Rhode Island and weighing a trillion tons, threatened to smash into South Georgia Island (site of explorer Ernest Shackleton’s grave) before it harmlessly spun away and melted. Catastrophe avoided.

New Data, Research

Is the apocalyptic scenario an unavoidable future? Two new scientific studies have found that melting ice in Antarctica has reversed and slowed in the Northern Hemisphere’s Arctic. It’s too soon to reach any overarching lessons from this new data, but worthwhile acknowledging that few scientific “facts” are immutable.

At the South Pole, a team of Chinese researchers led by Wei Wang of Tongji University of Shanghai found that ice on the Antarctic ice sheet increased from 2021 to 2023, following 19 years of decrease starting in 2002.

Published March 19 in the peer reviewed Springer Nature journal Science China Earth Sciences, the research team found that Antarctica’s melting glaciers caused the “global mean sea level” (GMSL) to rise by “5.99±0,52 mm ( milllimeteres) by February 2020. Then the ice began accumulating in the following three years, “ultimately resulting in a total GMSL contribution of 5.10±0.52 mm by the end of 2023.” 

Moving to the North Pole, a March 29 analysis by four researchers led by Mark England from the University of Bristol, published in the ESS Open Archive research platform wrote, “Over the past two decades, Arctic Sea ice loss has slowed considerably, with no statistically significant decline in September Sea ice area since 2005. This pause is robust across observational datasets, metrics, and seasons.”

What to make of these surprising findings that contradict the popular notion of the impact of climate change, long promoted by some researchers who appear to have more interest in advancing policy positions than science? Researcher England titles his team’s research paper as “Surprising, but not unexpected, multi-decadal pause in Arctic sea ice loss.”

The Arctic paper, in typical low-key scientific language, says, “The modelling evidence suggests that internal variability has substantially offset anthropogenically forced sea ice loss in recent decades, although possible contributions from changes in the forced response remain uncertain. Overall, this observed pause in Arctic Sea ice decline is consistent with simulated internal variability superimposed on the long-term trend according to the bulk of the climate modelling evidence.”

The Wang Antarctic paper concludes modestly, “Overall, the study presents the mass change characteristics of the [Antarctic Ice Sheet] over the past 22 years, highlights the instability of four important glacier basins in the [East Antarctic Ice Sheet], and provides valuable scientific insights for related polar research.”

Pielke View

U.S. climate scientist Roger Pielke, Jr., wrote in an op-ed in the New York Post, “When it comes to climate change, to invoke one of Al Gore’s favorite sayings, the biggest challenge is not what we don’t know, but what we know for sure but just isn’t so.”

Taken together, says Pielke, “the two studies remind us that the global climate system remains unpredictable, defying simplistic expectations that change moves only in one direction.”

Writing in The Honest Broker, Pielke observes that “climate research is not a scoreboard in a Manichean debate, but instead offers certainties, uncertainties, and even areas of total ignorance that establish a nuanced context for developing robust mitigation and adaptation policies.”

He adds, “Humans affect the climate system in many ways, including greenhouse gas emissions, but also through land management, air pollution, and vegetation dynamics. At a planetary scale the net effect of these changes – driven by carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of coal, natural gas, and oil – is a warming of the planetary system. Anticipating regional and local consequences is far more challenging.”

Pielke recalls the lament of the late, great climate scientist Steve Schneider (1945-2010) in 2002: “I readily confess a lingering frustration: uncertainties so infuse the issue of climate change that it is still impossible to rule out either mild or catastrophic outcomes, let alone provide confident probabilities for all the claims and counterclaims made about environmental problems.”

Conclusion

What is supposed to be in the world of unsettled climate science cannot substitute for data. And climate models cannot rescue theory or data. Climate modeling is hope-in-process. Gavin Schmidt states:

models are always wrong, but the degree to which they can be useful needs to be addressed – by variable or by model generation or by model completeness etc…. an accumulation of improvements – in physics, resolution, completeness, forcings – have led to a gradual improvement in skill (not just in the sea ice trends!)…. The history of Arctic sea ice comparisons shows that it might be premature to conclude that any specific discrepancies imply that something is fundamentally wrong, or that climate modeling is in a ‘crisis’ (Shaw and Stevens, 2025), it may well be that these discrepancies will resolve themselves in the course of ‘normal’ model development (and as the observed signals become clearer). Or not ;-).

Only the future will tell…. or not.

Antarctic Wilkes Land-Queen Mary Region Sees 100 Billion Tonne Ice Mass Increase

Recent studies shows that the Arctic and Antarctic have cooled over the past 2 decades, and that ice mass has gained in the Antarctic Wilkes Land-Queen Mary Land region.

From NoTrickZone

By P Gosselin

Recent studies shows that the Arctic and Antarctic have cooled over the past 2 decades, and that ice mass has gained in the Antarctic Wilkes Land-Queen Mary Land region.

Hat-tip: TKP

The study, “Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land” in the journal Science China Earth Sciences authored by Wei Wang et al looked at the AIS mass change series from April 2002 to December 2023 with the focus on four glacier basins in the Wilkes Land-Queen Mary Land (WL-QML) region: Denman, Moscow, Totten, and Vincennes Bay glacier basins.

Chart source: TKP

Recent ice mass growth

In the period of 2002-2010, there was moderate ice loss of -73.79 ± 56.27 gigatons per year, which contributed to 0.20 ± 0.16 mm per year to global sea level rise.

From 2011-2020 there was almost twice as much ice loss of -142.06 ± 56.12 gigatons per year, contributing 0.39 ± 0.15 mm per year to global sea level rise.

But in the period of 2021-2023, there was a surprising a mass gain of 107.79 ± 74.90 gigatons per year that offset global sea level rise by 0.30 ± 0.21 mm per year.

 Cooling at rate of 5°C per century since early 1980s 

In a study published in 2023, “Significant West Antarctic Cooling in the Past Two Decades Driven by Tropical Pacific Forcing”, authored by Xueying Zhang et al, analyses showed that the West Antarctic cooled over the past 2 decades: “In particular, during 1999–2018, the observed annual average surface air temperature had decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the strongest cooling in austral spring.”

The results show that most of the Antarctic continent has cooled by 2 °C since the early 1980s. That translates into a rate of 5°C per century.

New Study Finds 1970s-Present Antarctic Ice Loss Is ‘Unexceptional’ And Not Due To ‘Climate Change’

The advent of post-1970s “climate change” and polar amplification due to the rapidly rising trend in human greenhouse gas emissions was supposed to unleash catastrophic ice calving losses and increases in iceberg size throughout the Earth’s cryosphere.

From NoTrickZone’

By Kenneth Richard

Ice shelf collapse was much more pronounced and exceptional millennia ago than it has been over the last 47 years.

The advent of post-1970s “climate change” and polar amplification due to the rapidly rising trend in human greenhouse gas emissions was supposed to unleash catastrophic ice calving losses and increases in iceberg size throughout the Earth’s cryosphere.

But a new analysis (MacKie et al., 2024) indicates the size of Antarctic icebergs breaking off from the ice sheet has, contrary to popular assumption, slightly declined since 1976. Calving events in recent decades therefore cannot even be conclusively attributed to climate change. Instead, they are representative of what occurs naturally.

“…our results reveal that extreme calving events should not automatically be interpreted as a sign of ice shelf instability, but are instead representative of the natural cycle of calving front advance and retreat.”

Over the last 47 years (1976-2023) calving events peaked during the period from 1986 to 2000. Even so, the largest of the modern icebergs calved from Antarctica’s coastal ice shelves were still four times smaller than what would occur with an exceptional, once-a-century calving event.

So even the presumably large calving losses in recent decades that were thought to have been extreme and unparalleled (i.e., the 2017 Larsen C 5,800 km² iceberg) could not even reach statistical significance in terms of their exceptionality. It would take and iceberg about 40,000 km² in size to be classified as an exceptional, once-a-century calving event.

“…extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change.”

Not only has there been no sign of ice shelf instability with the “unexceptional” modern changes, but paleoclimate studies indicate there were periods of ice shelf collapse throughout the Holocene that were much more pronounced than anything occurring in recent decades.

“Notably, paleoclimate studies suggest that significant ice shelf collapse, on a scale greater than the maximum observed sizes in our data set, has already occurred during the Holocene.”

Succinctly, there is nothing even remotely unusual about the calving events occurring across Antarctica today.

Image Source: MacKie et al., 2024

,Geophysical Research Letters – 2024 – MacKie – 47 Years of Large Antarctic Calving Events Insights From Extreme ValueHerunterladen

Antarctic Sea Ice Volume Higher Than 1980s

Antarctic sea ice extent has been relatively low for the last couple of years, but has recovered since this time last year

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Antarctic sea ice extent has been relatively low for the last couple of years, but has recovered since this time last year

https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index

But when we look at sea ice volume, rather than extent, we see a different story.

As of October, when ice was close to its maximum, the volume was higher than some years in the 1980s.

https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/

This usually indicates wind patterns. Strong winds from the north push the ice polewards, thus reducing extent but also increasing thickness. This is when the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) goes negative, a perfectly natural oscillation that has nothing to do with climate change.

Certainly there is nothing alarming to be seen in the bottom two graphs.

Antarctic Calving Events: Natural Variability vs. Climate Alarmism

In the unrelenting march of climate alarmism, few narratives are as iconic—or as misleading—as those involving massive Antarctic icebergs. A recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters by MacKie et al. challenges this narrative, using nearly half a century of data to dissect the relationship between iceberg calving and climate change. The study presents findings that are not just counterintuitive to the alarmist narrative but outright debunk some of its central claims.

From Watts Up With That?

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL112235?campaign=woletoc#main1

In the unrelenting march of climate alarmism, few narratives are as iconic—or as misleading—as those involving massive Antarctic icebergs. A recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters by MacKie et al. challenges this narrative, using nearly half a century of data to dissect the relationship between iceberg calving and climate change. The study presents findings that are not just counterintuitive to the alarmist narrative but outright debunk some of its central claims.

Key Findings: No Upward Trend in Iceberg Calving

Using Extreme Value Theory (EVT), MacKie and colleagues analyzed 47 years of satellite data to evaluate trends in Antarctic iceberg calving. The results were clear: there has been no upward trend in the size of the largest icebergs calved annually since 1976. As the study states:

“The risk of experiencing a major calving event has not increased over the last 47 years, which suggests that climate change is not necessarily responsible for the calving of these large icebergs.”​.

This is a startling conclusion given the frequent media and activist claims that such events are harbingers of climate doom.

Massive Icebergs: A Natural Phenomenon

The researchers also addressed the stochastic nature of calving events, emphasizing that these are statistically consistent with natural variability. Historical records, including pre-satellite observations, confirm that large iceberg calving has occurred for centuries, well before modern industrialization:

“Historical shipboard records suggest that such massive events predate the onset of notable Antarctic ice shelf decline.”​.

Moreover, the iconic A68 iceberg, which broke off from the Larsen C ice shelf in 2017, was found to be statistically unexceptional when compared to historical records. The real peak in extreme calving occurred between 1986 and 2000, with no discernible link to modern climate trends​.

The Real Threat: Small Calving Events

While the media tends to focus on photogenic giant icebergs, MacKie et al. highlight that the real driver of Antarctic ice mass loss is the cumulative impact of smaller calving events. These smaller events, rather than large-scale catastrophes, appear to be the primary mechanism by which ice shelves thin and destabilize over time. The study explains this phenomenon as “death by a thousand cuts,” rather than the dramatic collapses often emphasized in climate rhetoric​.

Policy Implications: A Reality Check

The findings carry profound implications for climate policy. If extreme calving events are not linked to climate change but are instead part of natural ice shelf dynamics, this undermines the rationale for many expensive mitigation policies targeting such phenomena. Antarctic ice loss—driven by a mix of small calving events and oceanic conditions— will not respond meaningfully to misguided reductions in carbon emissions.

Additionally, the study acknowledges the limitations of current models in predicting these events. The inherent unpredictability of iceberg calving, coupled with the lack of long-term data, makes it nearly impossible to attribute individual events to human activity. As the study notes:

“A comprehensive physical model for calving processes is a complicated and as of yet unrealized endeavor in the field of glaciology.”​.

This raises serious questions about the reliability of alarmist projections of future sea-level rise predicated on these uncertain models.

Conclusion: Science vs. Sensationalism

MacKie et al.’s research offers a sober reminder that nature, not humanity, remains the dominant force shaping Antarctica’s ice dynamics. While media outlets and policymakers rush to connect every iceberg and calving event to climate change, the data tells a more nuanced story—one of natural variability and long-term cycles. It’s a story that the public deserves to hear, but one that cuts against the grain of the prevailing narrative.

As we continue to evaluate the costs and benefits of climate policies, it is imperative to ground our decisions in hard evidence rather than sensational headlines. The icebergs of Antarctica are spectacular, but they are not the smoking guns of climate change that alarmists would have us believe. Instead, they are a testament to the power of natural systems, which operate on timescales and scales far beyond our comprehension.

H/T Tom Nelson