From ClimateRealism

By Anthony Watts

The Daily Mail (DM) claims in “Antarctica ‘Doomsday Glacier’ COLLAPSE by 2067” that the Thwaites Glacier is on track for catastrophic failure within decades. This misleading framing gives a false impression of what science actually says about the issue. Observational data show ongoing ice loss and instability, but they do not establish an inevitable post-mid-century collapse. Further, the ice loss quantities cited are very small relative to the glacier’s total mass.

The DM article leans heavily on projections suggesting that by 2067, Thwaites could lose on the order of 200 gigatons of ice annually. That number sounds dramatic by itself; it is not in the larger context.

The Thwaites Glacier is estimated to contain roughly 600,000 gigatons of ice. Even 200 gigatons represents a tiny fraction of the total mass – just 0.033 percent. As summarized in the Climate at a Glance review of Antarctic ice trends at Climate at a Glance – Antarctic Ice Melt, Antarctica holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by nearly 200 feet. However, while parts of West Antarctica are losing mass, total Antarctic ice trends are complex and vary regionally, with much of the continent experiencing net ice gain. A projected loss of 200 gigatons in a given year does not equate to imminent collapse of the Thwaites Glacier, much less the continent as a whole.

Precision matters. Percentages matter.

The DM article also implies that atmospheric warming via climate change is directly driving the glacier toward collapse. But direct field measurements tell a more nuanced story.

The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) deployed instruments beneath the ice shelf and directly measured intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) — relatively warm ocean water roughly 1°C above freezing — flowing beneath the glacier and melting it from below. That mechanism is oceanographic, not atmospheric. It involves shifting currents delivering subsurface heat under the ice shelf, not surface air temperature melting the glacier from above.

That distinction is important. The Thwaites Glacier sits in a region where ocean circulation patterns play a dominant role in basal melt rates. The delivery of warmer CDW onto the continental shelf is influenced by complex wind patterns, bathymetry, and ocean dynamics. Conflating that process with generalized “air temperature warming” confuses the physics.

None of this is to deny that the Thwaites Glacier is changing. Measurements show ongoing retreat, thinning, and acceleration in parts of the glacier system; something all glaciers do on occasion. Basal melting is occurring and satellite imagery shows some fracturing. Those are real observations. But the big leap from “instability is present” to “collapse by 2067” doesn’t pencil out unless questionable models are employed.

The measurements establish cause for attention. They do not, by themselves, prove inevitable collapse on any specific timetable. Ice-sheet systems are nonlinear and can reorganize. Whether retreat becomes self-sustaining and irreversible on human timescales depends on thresholds that remain uncertain. That is precisely why modeling studies differ in their projections.

It is also important to remember that sea-level rise is already incorporated into coastal planning frameworks based on measured trends. Global mean sea level has been rising at roughly three millimeters per year over recent decades. Even under high-end projections, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) describes recent rise in terms of feet, not dozens of feet, and emphasizes deep uncertainty regarding dynamic ice-sheet contributions.

The article’s framing suggests a dramatic mid-century tipping point, but science describes an evolving system with significant uncertainty.

Context also matters historically. Ice sheets, including Thwaites, have advanced and retreated repeatedly over geological time due to orbital cycles and ocean circulation changes. Over the past million years, glacial–interglacial cycles have followed a dominant natural pattern of roughly 100,000 years. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has likely collapsed and reformed in past warm periods — all before “climate change” became the universal boogeyman for anything that we see as abnormal. That does not trivialize current changes, but it underscores that these systems respond over centuries and millennia.

Finally, scale matters again. If the Thwaites Glacier contains roughly 600,000 gigatons of ice, a 200-gigaton annual loss represents about 0.033 percent of its mass per year. Even sustained at that rate — which is speculative — complete disintegration would take centuries, not decades. Careful tracking of the Thwaites Glacier and the ocean currents that drive its loss and expansion are merited, but the alarmingly misleading headlines such as the one posted by DM suggesting near-term collapse are not.

There is a pattern here. The Daily Mail has long demonstrated a preference for dramatic, attention-grabbing headlines that far oversell the actual story. Climate Realism has debunked its false, hyperbolic disaster scenario claims dozens of times. “Doomsday Glacier collapse by 2067” fits that formula perfectly — a bold date, a catastrophic label, and minimal context. That may drive clicks, but it does not accurately reflect the measured data or the scientific uncertainty involved.