How Climate Shocks Helped End Europe’s First Advanced Civilization: The Minoans and the 3.2 ka Drought

The Minoans were a Bronze Age civilization centered on the island of Crete in the eastern Mediterranean, widely regarded as Europe’s first advanced civilization.

Climate played a significant role in the environment of Minoan Crete and is widely discussed as a contributing factor (alongside natural disasters like the Santorini (Thera) eruption, earthquakes, and Mycenaean influence) in the civilization’s gradual decline after its peak.

The date of the Minoan eruption of Santorini (Thera) remains one of the most debated topics in Bronze Age Mediterranean chronology. No single exact year has universal agreement, but scientific evidence (especially radiocarbon) has increasingly favored an earlier date than traditional archaeological estimates.

Ruins of Minoan civilization in a dry landscape, with an olive tree in the foreground and a volcanic eruption in the background, accompanied by the title about climate shocks and the 3.2 ka drought.
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The Minoans were a Bronze Age civilization centered on the island of Crete in the eastern Mediterranean, widely regarded as Europe’s first advanced civilization.

They flourished roughly from about 3000 BCE to around 1100 BCE (with their peak in the Middle and early Late Bronze Age, c. 2000- 1450 BCE). British archaeologist Sir Arthur Evans named them after the legendary King Minos of Greek myth (linked to the Minotaur and the labyrinth), based on his excavations at Knossos beginning in 1900.

They developed from Neolithic farming communities (settlers arriving around 7000 BCE, likely from Anatolia or nearby regions) into a sophisticated maritime society. Genetic evidence indicates they were largely local Europeans descended from earlier Neolithic inhabitants, related to later Mycenaeans, with no significant North African ancestry in key studies.

Key Features of Minoan Society

Palaces and urban centers: Monumental complexes at Knossos (the largest), Phaistos, Malia, Zakros, and others served as administrative, economic, ceremonial, and possibly religious hubs. This featured advanced architecture, including multi-story buildings, light wells, drainage systems, and vibrant frescoes depicting nature, marine life, processions, and activities like bull- leaping.

Economy and trade: They were skilled seafarers and traders, exchanging goods (including metals for bronze) across the Aegean, with Egypt, the Levant, Anatolia, and farther afield. Crete’s fertility supported agriculture, while their navy and networks made them a regional power without clear evidence of large-scale militarism or fortifications in earlier periods.

Art, culture, and writing: Distinctive pottery (e.g., Marine Style), figurines (such as the Snake Goddess), jewelry, and sports- like activities. They used undeciphered scripts: Cretan hieroglyphs and Linear A (administrative, still largely unread). Later, under Mycenaean influence, Linear B (an early form of Greek) appeared.

Religion and society: Evidence points to nature-focused practices, possible priestly or elite leadership centered on the palaces, and a relatively peaceful, prosperous society (though this view has been nuanced by later research). Chronology is often divided into Early, Middle, and Late Minoan periods, with “palatial” phases marked by palace construction and rebuilding after earthquakes.

Their culture influenced later Greek mythology and the Mycenaeans of mainland Greece.

What Happened to Them?

The Minoan civilization did not vanish overnight but declined through a combination of natural disasters, internal changes, and external takeover, transitioning into a Mycenaean- dominated phase on Crete before the broader Late Bronze Age collapse around 1200 BCE.

Natural disasters: Frequent earthquakes damaged or destroyed palaces (e.g., around 1700 BCE, leading to rebuilding). The massive volcanic eruption of Thera (modern Santorini), dated around 1600 BCE (or early 1500s BCE in some radiocarbon estimates), was a major event, one of the largest in human history. It generated tsunamis that hit Crete’s northern coast, ash fall that affected agriculture and water, and likely disrupted trade networks and food supplies. It did not immediately end the civilization (Minoan sites continued for generations), but it acted as a catalyst, causing economic stress, social disruption, and decentralization.

Destructions around 1450 BCE: Widespread fires and abandonment of many secondary sites and palaces (Knossos largely survived longer). These appear deliberate rather than purely natural, pointing to conflict, possibly internal upheaval, elite competition over resources, or invasion.

Mycenaean takeover: Weakened Minoans faced increasing influence and likely conquest by Mycenaeans from mainland Greece. By around 1450- 1400 BCE, Mycenaeans controlled key sites (especially Knossos), introduced Linear B administration, and blended cultures. Knossos was later destroyed (c. 1370- 1300 BCE). Remaining Minoan elements persisted in a “Postpalatial” period under Mycenaean or mixed rule, with some populations moving to more defensible inland sites.

Other contributing factors debated by scholars include climate shifts (e.g., possible droughts linked to ENSO patterns), trade disruptions, and social/political fragility. By the time of the wider Mediterranean Bronze Age collapse (c. 1200 BCE), distinct Minoan palace culture had long faded, absorbed into or succeeded by Mycenaean and later Greek developments. Their legacy endured in art, myth (e.g., Minos, the Labyrinth), and the foundations of Aegean civilization.

Exact details remain incomplete because Linear A is undeciphered and much relies on archaeology rather than written records. Ongoing research continues to refine dates and interpretations of the Thera eruption’s precise impact and the nature of the Mycenaean transition.

Ruins of the Palace of Knossos with a rising sun in the background, surrounded by greenery and dramatic clouds.
Throwback to the Bronze Age in Minoan and Mycenaean Crete | Elissos

Climate played a significant role in the environment of Minoan Crete and is widely discussed as a contributing factor (alongside natural disasters like the Santorini (Thera) eruption, earthquakes, and Mycenaean influence) in the civilization’s gradual decline after its peak.

Crete’s Mediterranean climate, mild, wet winters and hot, dry summers, supported agriculture (cereals, olives, vines) and maritime trade, but the island was vulnerable to shifts in precipitation, temperature, and extreme events.

Climatic Context During the Minoan Period

Paleoclimate records (pollen, speleothems/oxygen isotopes, marine cores, tree rings) show progressive mid- to- late Holocene drying across the Eastern Mediterranean, with fluctuations rather than steady conditions. Early and Middle Bronze Age phases (roughly before ~1700- 1600 BCE) included periods that were relatively wetter and cooler in places, supporting population growth and palace development. Later phases saw increased aridity stress.

Some researchers describe a possible “Minoan Little Ice Age” or cooler and wetter intervals in the second millennium BCE, which could have increased water availability in some ways but also brought more unpredictable or extreme precipitation patterns. Evidence from sites like Palaikastro wells and pollen records indicates sensitivity to drought even during otherwise favorable periods.

Key Climate Impacts Linked to Decline

ENSO (El Niño- Southern Oscillation) and drier conditions: A 2010 study in Climate of the Past argued that climate change, specifically intensified El Niño activity, contributed to the slow demise of the Minoans. Proxy data show El Niño events correlate with drier conditions over Crete. A shift in ENSO dynamics around 3000 BCE led to a series of unusually strong and frequent El Niño events beginning ~1450 BCE and lasting centuries. This would have reduced precipitation, stressed agriculture and water resources, and compounded other pressures during the period of palace destructions and Mycenaean takeover. Pollen analyses have been cited as supporting severe drought signals in relevant intervals.

Broader Eastern Mediterranean aridification and the 3.2 ka event: Progressive drying culminated in severe drought episodes around 1400- 900 BCE (overlapping the later Minoan and Mycenaean phases and the wider Late Bronze Age collapse). These arose from the alignment of natural climate cycles (Atlantic variability, orbital trends) amplifying dryness on an already aridifying background. Records from the Levant, Anatolia, Peloponnese, and Crete show reduced effective moisture, affecting agriculture-dependent societies. While the classic Minoan palace system had already transformed by ~1450- 1400 BCE, residual Minoan elements and the broader Aegean faced ongoing stress into the post- palatial period and Greek Dark Ages.

Thera (Santorini) eruption climatic effects (~1600 BCE or early- mid 16th century BCE, dates still debated): Beyond tsunamis and ash fall on Crete (which damaged coastal areas, salted fields, and disrupted agriculture temporarily), the eruption injected aerosols into the atmosphere. This could have caused short- term cooling, reduced sunlight, and anomalous weather (volcanic winter effects), leading to crop failures, famine risks, and trade disruptions for years. Ash layers and environmental proxies on Crete and nearby show impacts, though the eruption’s global climate forcing is now often ranked lower than some earlier estimates (other large eruptions, such as Aniakchak II ~1628 BCE, may account for stronger signals in ice cores and tree rings). It is generally seen as a catalyst that weakened the system rather than an immediate terminator, Minoan society continued for generations afterward.

How Climate Interacted with Society

Minoan agriculture and centralized palace economies depended on reliable harvests and water. Drought or climate instability could reduce yields, strain food distribution, heighten competition for resources, undermine elite authority, and encourage decentralization or conflict.

Combined with earthquakes, the Thera disaster’s economic and social shockwaves, and external pressures, these factors likely accelerated the shift from independent Minoan palace culture to Mycenaean administration and eventual broader collapse dynamics.

Climate is rarely presented as the sole cause.

Most scholars emphasize a multifactorial process: environmental stress made the society more vulnerable to other disruptions. High- resolution records continue to refine the picture, showing that Eastern Mediterranean hydroclimate was highly sensitive to Atlantic and other remote forcings, with extreme droughts emerging when multiple cycles aligned.

In summary, climate impacts, especially increasing aridity linked to Greek Dark Ages shifts and regional drying, plus eruption- related anomalies, added chronic stress to Minoan Crete from the mid- second millennium BCE onward, contributing to economic and social fragility during the civilization’s transformation and decline. Ongoing paleoclimate and archaeological work keep updating the precise timing and relative weight of these factors.

A solitary tree stands in front of ancient stone ruins, with a rocky path leading towards a partially restored structure in the background, under a partly cloudy sky.
The western façade of the Palace at Knossos. Like other palaces, it was built during the Middle Minoan era but continually renovated throughout its existence.
Minoan civilization – Wikipedia

The 3.2 ka event (also called the 3.2 ka BP event or ~1200 BCE climate anomaly) refers to a period of intensified aridity and cooler conditions across the Eastern Mediterranean and parts of Europe, centered around 3200 years before present (roughly 1250-1150 BCE, spanning or framing a longer ~300- year drought episode into the Early Iron Age).

It is documented in paleoclimate proxies such as speleothems (oxygen and carbon isotopes), pollen records, marine sediments, and lake levels, showing reduced precipitation, lower effective moisture, and stresses on dry- farming agriculture.

This event coincides with the Late Bronze Age (LBA) collapse (c. 1300- 900 BCE, with major disruptions around 1200 BCE), involving the fall or transformation of interconnected societies including the Mycenaeans, Hittites, and Levantine/Cypriot polities, alongside Egyptian decline and migrations (e.g., associated with the “Sea Peoples”).

Climate stress is widely viewed as a contributing “force multiplier”, worsening harvest failures, food shortages, economic disruption, and social instability, rather than the sole cause. Other factors included trade network breakdowns, internal conflicts, invasions, and systemic vulnerabilities.

By the time of the 3.2 ka event, the classic independent Minoan palace civilization on Crete had already largely ended or transformed.

Key earlier milestones include:

  • The Thera (Santorini) eruption in Late Minoan IA (c. 1600 BCE or early mid 16th century BCE).
  • Widespread destructions of secondary palaces and settlements around 1450 BCE (end of LM IB), followed by Mycenaean (mainland Greek) administrative control, use of Linear B (early Greek), and cultural blending at Knossos and elsewhere.
  • Later destruction of Knossos (c. 1370- 1300 BCE) and a shift to a post- palatial period.

In Late Minoan III (c. 1420- 1075 BCE, especially LM IIIB–IIIC around 1330- 1075 BCE), Crete was under strong Mycenaean influence or rule, with residual Minoan cultural elements. Around 1200 BCE (LM IIIC), coastal settlements were often abandoned in favor of more defensible inland or highland sites. This aligns with broader Aegean patterns of disruption during the LBA collapse.

Paleoclimate records indicate the progressive mid- to- late Holocene drying of the Eastern Mediterranean, culminating in the severe droughts of the 3.2 ka event (~1400- 900 BCE interval in some reconstructions), affected Crete as part of the region.

Reduced rainfall would have stressed agriculture (cereals, olives, vines) and water resources on an island already sensitive to precipitation variability. Combined with earlier shocks (Thera- related disruptions, Mycenaean takeover), this later aridification likely contributed to further population movements, ruralization, and the fading of remaining centralized or urban features on Crete during the transition to the Greek Dark Ages and Early Iron Age.

Evidence is regional rather than Crete- specific in many high-resolution records, and impacts varied spatially. Some studies note drier signals in the Aegean and Anatolia around 3.2- 3.1 ka BP, while emphasizing that climate was one interacting factor among many.

The main Minoan decline (palace destructions and Mycenaean absorption) predates the peak of the 3.2 ka event by a couple of centuries, so the event primarily affected the post- Minoan (Mycenaean- influenced) phase on Crete rather than the height of independent Minoan society.

In short, the 3.2 ka event represents a major climatic downturn that hit the Eastern Mediterranean during the final stages of Bronze Age societies, including the transformed, Mycenaean- dominated communities on Crete that carried forward elements of Minoan culture.

It helped frame the broader LBA collapse and the subsequent “Dark Ages,” reinforcing earlier environmental and political stresses on the island. Research continues to refine exact timings, regional variations, and the relative weight of climate versus human factors.

A digital illustration of a volcanic eruption occurring on an island, with lava and ash erupting into the atmosphere above the ocean.
Ancient Tree Rings Could Pin Down Date of Massive Thera Volcano Eruption

The date of the Minoan eruption of Santorini (Thera) remains one of the most debated topics in Bronze Age Mediterranean chronology.

No single exact year has universal agreement, but scientific evidence (especially radiocarbon) has increasingly favored an earlier date than traditional archaeological estimates.

Traditional Archaeological (“Low”) Chronology

Archaeologists long placed the eruption around 1500 BCE or in the mid- to- late 16th century BCE (sometimes as late as ~1525- 1500 BCE). This was based on pottery styles, stratigraphic sequences, and synchronisms with Egyptian history, linking it to the early New Kingdom (after the accession of Ahmose I, conventionally ~1550- 1540 BCE). This would put the eruption during or after the start of the 18th Dynasty.

Radiocarbon and Scientific (“High”) Chronology

Radiocarbon dating of short- lived samples (seeds, grains) from the volcanic destruction layer at Akrotiri, plus olive branches and shrubs buried by the eruption (on Santorini and Therasia), consistently points earlier.

Using the IntCal20 calibration curve and Bayesian modeling of sequences:

Common refined ranges include ~1609- 1560 BCE (95.4% probability) and a most probable interval of ~1606- 1589 BCE (68.3% probability).

Other analyses of olive material give broader possibilities such as 1610- 1510 BCE or 1602- 1502 BCE, with probability density often favoring the later 17th to mid- 16th century.

Recent 2025 radiocarbon work on Egyptian artifacts from the 17th- early 18th Dynasties (linked to Ahmose I and the transition from the Second Intermediate Period) supports the eruption predating Ahmose’s reign, placing it firmly in the Second Intermediate Period (SIP) rather than the New Kingdom. This reinforces a date around 1600 BCE.

Ice- core sulfate signals and tree- ring anomalies (previously linked to ~1628- 1627 BCE) are now often attributed to other large eruptions (e.g., Aniakchak II in Alaska), reducing their direct relevance to Thera.

Current Consensus and Implications

Most recent high- resolution radiocarbon and modeling work converges on the late 17th to early and mid-16th century BCE, centered near ~1600 BCE (often expressed as c. 1610- 1560 BCE or similar). This is earlier than the traditional archaeological low chronology by roughly 50- 100 and more years.

The exact calendar year is still not pinpointed due to a plateau in the radiocarbon calibration curve around 1620- 1540 BCE and ongoing debates over sample contexts, possible offsets, and full integration with Egyptian and Levantine sequences. However, the scientific data strongly exclude dates after ~1530 BCE in many models and support a SIP context.

This earlier dating has major implications: it places the eruption (and the height of Neopalatial Minoan Crete / Shaft Grave Mycenaean period) in a different geopolitical setting dominated by Canaanite-Levantine networks rather than the Egyptian New Kingdom, requiring revisions to cultural influence directions and historical synchronisms across the eastern Mediterranean.

In summary, while traditional archaeology favored ~1500 BCE, the weight of current radiocarbon evidence points to around 1600 BCE (late 17th- early 16th century BCE). Research continues to refine the precise year.

A Minoan fresco depicting a scene of bull-leaping, featuring a figure grasping the horns of a bull while another figure prepares to jump, with colorful and ornate borders surrounding the scene.
Bull-Leaping Fresco found at Knossos Minoan civilization – Wikipedia

Antarctic Radar Data Sharpens Forecasts of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Rivers

A study shows that assimilating high- temporal- resolution wind profile data from the PANSY radar at Japan’s Syowa Station in Antarctica improves reanalyzes and forecasts of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in the Southern Hemisphere.

Using a data assimilation system, the authors tested the impact of hourly wind profiles from the PANSY radar (Program of the Antarctic Syowa Mesosphere–Stratosphere–Troposphere/Incoherent Scatter radar) at Japan’s Syowa Station.

Infographic detailing how Antarctic radar data improves forecasts for Southern Hemisphere atmospheric rivers, highlighting moisture transport levels, challenges in forecasting, and the benefits of improved radar observations.
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A study shows that assimilating high- temporal- resolution wind profile data from the PANSY radar at Japan’s Syowa Station in Antarctica improves reanalyses and forecasts of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in the Southern Hemisphere.

The paper, “Impact of Antarctic radar on Southern Hemisphere atmospheric river reanalysis and forecast,” was published in Scientific Reports.

Observational sparsity over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean reduces forecast skill for Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation compared with the Northern Hemisphere. Conventional radiosondes help but are limited in frequency due to cost and logistics.

Observational sparsity over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean reduces forecast skill for Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation compared with the Northern Hemisphere. Conventional radiosondes help but are limited in frequency due to cost and logistics.

The study used a data assimilation system to test the impact of hourly horizontal wind profiles (roughly 1.5-20 km altitude) from the Program of the Antarctic Syowa Mesosphere- Stratosphere- Troposphere/Incoherent Scatter (PANSY) radar at Syowa Station (69°S, 39.6°E). Experiments covered periods including the 2022 Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP- SH) extra radiosonde campaign.

They compared reanalyses and forecasts with vs. without the PANSY data (and relative to products like ERA5).

Main findings

  • Assimilating PANSY data changes initial atmospheric conditions for forecasts, even when extra YOPP-SH radiosondes are already included. These differences persist over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.
  • The data improves the representation of the atmospheric basic state (wind speed, temperature, and geopotential height) at high latitudes.
  • It enhances prediction of atmospheric circulation and integrated water vapor (and related integrated vapor transport) associated with mid- latitude ARs in the Southern Hemisphere. In related analyses, including PANSY data reduced root- mean- square errors in forecasts of AR-related fields relative to ERA5 for multiple mid- latitude cases, and increased analyzed IVT in some East Antarctic interior regions where ARs occur.

ARs are long, narrow corridors of strong moisture transport that can deliver heavy precipitation and affect weather extremes. Better initial conditions over the data-sparse polar region help downstream forecasts because errors can propagate equatorward.

The results highlight the value of continuous, high- resolution radar wind observations from Antarctica for numerical weather prediction, beyond what infrequent radiosondes alone provide. The work was supported by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research, JSPS grants, and the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition, with experiments run on the Earth Simulator at JAMSTEC.

For the full details, see the open- access paper on Nature’s site. Related earlier work has also shown PANSY data reducing errors in mid- latitude cyclone forecasts.

Infographic explaining the importance of Antarctic radar for improving weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere, highlighting the use of hourly PANSY radar observations and their impact on atmospheric river forecasting.
Sparse weather observations over Antarctica limit the accuracy of Southern Hemisphere weather forecasts. Now, researchers show that assimilating hourly wind observations from the Antarctic PANSY radar improves weather forecasts and atmospheric river prediction, demonstrating the value of Antarctic radar data for numerical weather prediction. Credit: Assistant Professor Kazutoshi Sato from the National Institute of Polar Research, Japan.

Southern Ocean weather patterns are among the most intense and continuous on Earth. This vast, nearly land- free expanse (roughly south of 30- 40°S, encircling Antarctica) features strong, persistent westerly winds, frequent extratropical cyclones, and major influences from large- scale climate modes. These patterns drive the powerful Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), shape precipitation and sea ice, and play a critical role in global heat, moisture, and carbon transport.

Dominant Features

Strong westerly winds (“Roaring Forties,” “Furious Fifties,” and “Screaming Sixties”): Uninterrupted by major landmasses, these winds are the strongest mean surface winds on Earth. They drive the ACC (the world’s strongest ocean current) eastward and generate large waves and storminess.

Storm track and extratropical cyclones: A band of high storm activity lies roughly between 40°- 60°S. Cyclones form frequently due to the strong meridional temperature gradient and baroclinic instability associated with the subpolar jet. These systems bring high winds, clouds, and precipitation, and they modulate heat and moisture transport.

Circumpolar trough: A belt of low pressure surrounds Antarctica, with mean sea- level pressures often below 990 hPa. This feature shows a clear semiannual oscillation.

Precipitation patterns: Precipitation tends to increase poleward and decrease at lower latitudes in recent decades (consistent with climate change projections). Storms are producing more rain in some areas, for example, observations at Macquarie Island (in the storm track) show a ~28% rainfall increase since 1979, largely because individual storms drop more precipitation rather than because there are simply more storms.

Key Climate Modes Influencing Variability

Southern Annular Mode (SAM / Antarctic Oscillation): The leading mode of variability. In its positive phase, the westerly wind belt intensifies and contracts southward toward Antarctica (stronger high- latitude winds, often linked to reduced rainfall in parts of southern Australia and changes in Antarctic sea ice and ice- shelf melt via upwelling). In its negative phase, the belt shifts equatorward. Positive SAM has become more frequent in recent decades, partly due to ozone depletion and greenhouse- gas forcing.

El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Influences the Southern Ocean via teleconnections (e.g., deepening or weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low). La Niña often enhances certain storm patterns and can interact with positive SAM.

Amundsen Sea Low: A persistent low-pressure feature in the South Pacific sector that strongly affects West Antarctic and Peninsula weather, sea ice, and temperatures.

Other influences include the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and blocking highs that can steer moisture toward Antarctica.

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs)

Narrow corridors of intense moisture transport frequently occur over the Southern Ocean (especially 40°- 60°S). They are often embedded ahead of extratropical cyclone cold fronts and can extend toward Antarctica, delivering heat, moisture, and heavy precipitation or snowfall.

ARs contribute significantly to extreme precipitation events and can influence Antarctic surface mass balance (snowfall vs. melt). Recent studies (including those using Antarctic radar data such as PANSY) show that better observations improve forecasts of these systems and related mid-latitude circulation.

AR frequency has shown poleward shifts and increases over the Southern Ocean in recent decades, modulated by both circulation changes (jet shifts) and rising atmospheric moisture.

Seasonal and Regional Aspects

Seasonality: Stronger storms and higher precipitation in winter (JJA) at mid- latitudes in many sectors; more complex patterns near Antarctica involving sea- ice interactions.

Regional differences: The Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean show longitudinal variations due to the influence of South America, Africa, Australia, and the Antarctic Peninsula. Hotspots for marine heatwaves and cyclone activity exist in areas such as the western Pacific and North Ross Sea sectors.

Sea ice interactions: Expanding/contracting Antarctic sea ice strongly modulates surface fluxes, storm tracks, and cyclone intensity. Recent years have seen record- low sea- ice extents linked to atmospheric anomalies (e.g., deep Amundsen Sea Low).

Broader Climate Role and Changes

The Southern Ocean absorbs a large fraction of anthropogenic heat (~75%) and carbon (~35- 50%). Weather patterns (especially winds and storms) drive the meridional overturning circulation (upper and lower cells), upwelling of deep water, and formation of key water masses (e.g., Antarctic Bottom Water, Intermediate Water).

Observed trends include:

  • Strengthening and poleward shift of the westerlies (linked to positive SAM trends).
  • Increasing storm-related rainfall and freshwater input.
  • Rising marine heatwave activity in some regions.
  • Complex interactions with Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance via ARs, snowfall, and warm-water upwelling.

Data sparsity remains a challenge (few islands and stations), so reanalyses, satellite data, and special observing campaigns (e.g., YOPP- SH) plus Antarctic radar observations are especially valuable for improving forecasts of these patterns and associated extremes.

In short, Southern Ocean weather is characterized by relentless westerlies, frequent intense cyclones, moisture- laden atmospheric rivers, and strong modulation by the SAM and tropical teleconnections, making it both a driver of global climate and a sensitive indicator of change.

Aerial view of a snowy landscape with power lines and buildings scattered across the terrain. The scene features snow-covered ground and a clear sky.
The PANSY’s antenna cluster
, which boasts overwhelming scale even within Showa Air Base.
Photo: JARE65 Manami Yamaoka (August 16, 2024)
The Largest Large Atmospheric Radar in Antarctica – Observation Team Blog

Impact of Antarctic radar on Southern Hemisphere atmospheric river reanalysis and forecast

Observational sparsity over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean leads to lower forecast skill for Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation than in the Northern Hemisphere. Extra radiosonde observations help, but their frequency is limited by cost and logistics.

Using a data assimilation system, the authors tested the impact of hourly wind profiles from the PANSY radar (Program of the Antarctic Syowa Mesosphere–Stratosphere–Troposphere/Incoherent Scatter radar) at Japan’s Syowa Station. Assimilating these data changes the initial atmospheric conditions for weather forecasts, even when extra radiosonde data from the 2022 Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP- SH) campaign are already included. The differences persist over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.

The high- temporal- resolution Antarctic radar data improves:

  • Reproducibility of the atmospheric basic state (wind speed, temperature, and geopotential height) at high latitudes.
  • Prediction of atmospheric circulation and integrated water vapor associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) over mid- latitude regions of the SH.

Additional context from the paper

ARs are narrow, long corridors of intense water- vapor transport linked to severe weather (strong winds, heavy precipitation, flooding). They contribute substantially to extreme precipitation in parts of the SH, including New Zealand, Australia, Antarctic coastal regions, and South America, and can drive strong winds, surface melting, temperature rises, and heavy snowfall in Antarctica.

Previous work already showed benefits of PANSY wind data for mid- latitude cyclone forecasts. This study focuses on ARs during the 2022 austral winter YOPP- SH period (extra radiosondes at various SH stations).

Experiments used the ALEDAS3 ensemble data assimilation system. They compared a control reanalysis (CTL, using standard PREPBUFR observations) with one that also assimilated hourly PANSY winds (OSEP) for the period ~26 April- 5 September 2022.

Mean absolute differences in wind speed, geopotential height, and temperature (700- 200 hPa) between OSEP and CTL were notable over parts of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. These differences could propagate and amplify downstream with the jet stream.

The authors examined AR frequency and integrated water vapor transport (IVT) reproducibility, finding impacts on both reanalysis and forecasts of mid- latitude ARs.

Funding & support: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science grants, National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) under MEXT, and the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE). Experiments used the Earth Simulator at JAMSTEC.

Corresponding author: Kazutoshi Sato (sato.kazutoshi@nipr.ac.jp)

Authors include Kazutoshi Sato, Jun Inoue, Akira Yamazaki, Yoshihiro Tomikawa (affiliated with the Polar Environment Data Science Center, Joint Support-Center for Data Science Research, Research Organization of Information and Systems), and Kaoru Sato.

The full PDF (accepted manuscript) is available via the Nature page. Supplementary material is also linked. Because this is still an article- in- press version, minor corrections may appear in the final published form.

Journal information: Scientific Reports (2026)

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-61250-x

Authors: Kazutoshi Sato,
Jun Inoue,
Akira Yamazaki,
Yoshihiro Tomikawa &
Kaoru Sato 

Abstract

Observational data sparsity in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean results in lower forecast skill for atmospheric circulation over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) than the Northern Hemisphere. Additional Antarctic radiosonde observations at existing observation stations can enhance accurate forecasting of severe events over the SH; however, the number of daily radiosonde observations is limited, owing to financial and operational limitations. Using a data assimilation system, this study investigates the impact of hourly wind profiles from the PANSY radar at the Japanese Antarctic Syowa Station. Assimilation of PANSY data leads to differences in the initial atmospheric conditions for weather forecasts, even including extra radiosonde observations from the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) campaign in 2022. These differences in initial atmospheric condition persist in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. We show that Antarctic radar data with relatively high temporal resolution has an impact on the reproducibility of atmospheric basic state (wind speed, temperature and geopotential height) over the high latitudes and the prediction of atmospheric circulation and integrated water vapor associated with atmospheric rivers over the mid latitude in SH.

Volcanic Crystals Act as Black Boxes, Revealing Hidden Magma Journeys Beneath La Palma

Volcanic crystals (especially clinopyroxene) act as “black boxes” because they preserve layered chemical records of magma conditions deep underground, much like flight data recorders or tree rings, allowing scientists to reconstruct the hidden pre- eruptive history of magma storage, rejuvenation, and ascent.

Clinopyroxene chemical zoning is one of the most powerful archives of magma history available in volcanic rocks. These black or dark- green crystals grow by adding concentric (or sometimes sector- or patchy) layers, each of which chemically “records” the temperature, pressure, and melt composition present at the moment of growth. Because diffusion of many elements in clinopyroxene is relatively slow, the original zoning is often preserved even after the crystal is carried to the surface.

Infographic illustrating volcanic crystals as black boxes, showcasing magma storage, transport, and evolution beneath La Palma, including features such as clinopyroxene crystals, the La Palma crust, and the crystal-rich magma mush reservoir.
AI generated by Grok

Volcanic crystals (especially clinopyroxene) act as “black boxes” because they preserve layered chemical records of magma conditions deep underground, much like flight data recorders or tree rings, allowing scientists to reconstruct the hidden pre- eruptive history of magma storage, rejuvenation, and ascent.

Magma beneath volcanoes is typically not pure molten liquid but a crystal- rich “magma mush” (often compared to a semi- frozen granita: solid crystals suspended in melt). In a recent study published in Nature Communications, researchers examined clinopyroxene crystals from lava samples of La Palma’s 1712, 1971, and 2021 (Tajogaite) eruptions in the Canary Islands. High- resolution chemical imaging of these crystals revealed consistent patterns spanning more than 300 years.

Clinopyroxene grows slowly in concentric layers (zones) as magma cools, incorporating chemical signatures of the surrounding temperature, pressure and depth, and composition at each stage:

  • Crystal cores record an ancient, cooler, crystal- packed mush reservoir at roughly 18- 25 km depth in the upper mantle. These older crystals sat largely undisturbed for long periods.
  • Intermediate zones capture a sudden change day to weeks before eruption: injection of hotter, more primitive magma from deeper in the mantle. This heats and partially melts the mush, alters outer crystal chemistry, and stirs the mixture, remobilizing older crystals.
  • Outermost rims record the final, relatively rapid ascent through the crust to the surface, where the

This is analogous to reading tree rings for climate history: the chemistry of successive growth zones preserves the sequence of events that prepared the volcano to erupt.

Standard volcano monitoring (seismicity, ground deformation, gas emissions) mainly detects shallower magma movement and is less sensitive to deep processes. The crystal records show that significant magma accumulation and eruption triggering at La Palma occur at great depth in the upper mantle, where unrest can be hard to detect.

Knowing this helps interpret monitoring signals more accurately, e.g., assessing how quickly an eruption might develop once signs appear, even if it does not provide exact forecasts of timing.

Similar chemical zonation patterns appear in clinopyroxene from other oceanic volcanic islands (Azores, Cape Verde, Galápagos, and other Canary Islands), suggesting that deep, long- lived crystal mushes that are periodically reactivated by fresh mantle magma are common, especially during the earlier, higher-magma- supply stages of island growth. As supply later declines, these mushes may cool and become less easily remobilized.

In short, these black crystals survive the journey from deep storage through mixing and ascent, carrying a durable archive of conditions that would otherwise be inaccessible. Analyzing them improves understanding of how volcanic systems prepare for eruption and supports better hazard assessment for places like La Palma and analogous island volcanoes.

Geological map of La Palma in the Canary Islands showing volcanic activity and lava flows from the years 1712, 1971, and 2021, including details on El Charco, Teneguía, and Tajogaite eruptions.
Geological map of La Palma and sample localities of studied eruptions. Credit: Nature Communications (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77213-9

Clinopyroxene chemical zoning is one of the most powerful archives of magma history available in volcanic rocks. These black or dark- green crystals grow by adding concentric (or sometimes sector- or patchy) layers, each of which chemically “records” the temperature, pressure, and melt composition present at the moment of growth. Because diffusion of many elements in clinopyroxene is relatively slow, the original zoning is often preserved even after the crystal is carried to the surface.

How zoning forms and what it records

Clinopyroxene (most commonly diopside- augite in alkaline basalts) crystallizes over a wide depth range, from the upper mantle into the crust. As it grows:

  • Compatible elements (Cr, Ni, Sc, Mg) are preferentially incorporated from more primitive melts.
  • Incompatible elements (Zr, REE, Ti, Mn, Na) become enriched in more evolved melts.
  • Major- element ratios such as Mg#
  • (= 100 × Mg, (Mg and Fe)) track the degree of melt evolution or mixing.

Common zoning styles include:

  • Normal zoning: progressive decrease in Mg# and Cr outward (simple cooling and fractionation).
  • Reverse zoning: abrupt increase in Mg# and Cr (injection of hotter, more mafic magma).
  • Oscillatory or multiple reverse zones: repeated recharge events.
  • Patchy or sector zoning: complex growth or partial resorption in a crystal- rich mush.
  • Thin outer rims: final growth during ascent or eruption.

Because the crystal is a solid archive, the sequence of zones from core → inner rim → outer rim reconstructs the chronological order of events before eruption.

Zoning patterns revealed at La Palma (1712, 1971, 2021 eruptions)

In the Nature Communications study, high -resolution major- and trace- element mapping of clinopyroxene from the three historical Cumbre Vieja eruptions shows a remarkably consistent architecture:

Textural zoneTypical chemistryInterpretationDepth / Temperature
CoresBroad range: primitive (high Cr, Ni, Sc, Mg#) to highly evolved (low Cr, high Zr, Mn, enriched REE; often green in thin section). Patchy or sector- zoned.Antecrysts from a long-lived, cool (~1000- 1025 °C) phonolitic–tephriphonolitic crystal mushUpper mantle (~18- 25 km)
Inner rimsStrong reverse zoning: sharp rise in Cr (up to ~3500 ppm), Ni, Sc, Mg#; lower Zr. Often euhedral.Mafic (basanitic) recharge that remobilized and partially resorbed the mush. Minimum growth timescales ~4- 7 daysMostly upper mantle; possible brief crustal stalling (~5- 10 km)
Outer rims and microlitesLower Cr/Mg# relative to inner rims; compositions closer to the carrier meltFinal differentiation and or ascentShallower levels during final rise

Cluster analysis of the trace- element data isolates six compositional groups. The most evolved clusters occur almost exclusively in cores and represent crystallization from residual melts after 80- 90 % fractionation of a basanitic parent (producing phonolitic compositions). The most primitive clusters dominate the high- Cr inner rims and record the recharge magma itself.

Why the zoning is so informative

  • Cr is an especially sensitive tracer of mafic recharge because it is strongly compatible in clinopyroxene and its diffusion is slow; high- Cr zones therefore mark the arrival of primitive melt.
  • REE patterns help distinguish phonolitic mush- derived cores (often showing HREE enrichment characteristic of high- Na clinopyroxene) from the less- fractionated carrier melts.
  • Thermobarometry applied zone- by- zone (both clinopyroxene, liquid exchange and machine-learning clinopyroxene- only calibrations) confirms that the evolved mush resided in the upper mantle, consistent with deep seismicity observed before the 2021 eruption.
  • Matrix (groundmass) compositions remain relatively constant (~5 wt% MgO), showing that the carrier melts themselves did not change dramatically over 300 years; the main variation is in the recycled crystal cargo.

Broader significance

The same style of clinopyroxene zoning, cool, evolved upper- mantle mush cores overgrown by high- Cr recharge rims, appears in other ocean-island and alkaline volcanoes. It indicates that deep crystal mushes can persist for long periods and are periodically “unlocked” by hotter, primitive magma injections. Because these processes occur at depths that are difficult to image geophysically, the crystal record supplies information that monitoring networks alone cannot easily capture.

In short, clinopyroxene chemical zoning turns each crystal into a miniature stratigraphic log of the magma plumbing system, revealing storage conditions, recharge timing, mush recycling, and ascent pathways that would otherwise remain hidden.

Recurrent evacuation of mantle mush in ocean islands revealed by clinopyroxene from La Palma

Temporal variations in magma plumbing systems influence eruption priming and how we interpret volcanic unrest, but these are poorly constrained in low- flux ocean island volcanoes. The study examines clinopyroxene zoning from three historical eruptions at Cumbre Vieja on La Palma (Canary Islands): El Charco (1712), Teneguía (1971), and Tajogaite (2021).

Using quantitative trace- element mapping, thermobarometry, and cluster analysis, the authors show:

  • Preceding all three eruptions, an evolved phonolitic (to tephri- phonolitic) crystal mush resided in the upper mantle at ~18- 25 km depth under relatively cool conditions (~1000- 1025 °C).
  • At least one week before eruption, hotter basanitic recharge (~1100- 1150 °C) recycled/remobilized this mush and promoted magma ascent, potentially with brief stalling in the crust (~5- 10 km).
  • Mafic recharge was critical for unlocking the mush but may not have been the immediate eruption trigger (subsequent cooling, fractionation and pressurization likely played a role).
  • Upper-mantle evolved mushes appear common in ocean- island basalt (OIB) volcanoes; their presence is likely controlled by the island’s evolutionary stage and magma flux.

Methods and Data

  • Samples: Lavas from the three eruptions (early tephrites followed by later basanites).
  • Techniques: Petrography, major- element electron microprobe analysis (EMPA), laser- ablation ICP-MS for trace elements and quantitative mapping, clinopyroxene, liquid and machine- learning (ML) clinopyroxene- only thermobarometry, unsupervised cluster analysis of trace- element compositions, and comparison with matrix (carrier- melt) compositions.
  • Clinopyroxene textures show complex cores (often patchy and or sector- zoned), reverse-zoned inner rims (higher Mg#), and thinner outer rims.

Main Results

Carrier melts: Microcrystalline matrices are relatively homogeneous (~5 wt% MgO) across eruptions and follow a fractional- crystallization trend; only modest differences exist (e.g., slightly more evolved El Charco 1712 melts).

Clinopyroxene chemistry: Cores span primitive to highly evolved compositions. High-Cr, high- Mg# inner rims record mafic recharge. Trace- element maps highlight patchy evolved cores and consistent high- Cr inner rims (Cr up to ~3500 ppm).

Thermobarometry: Exchange- based methods place most crystallization in the upper mantle (~18- 25 km, consistent with deep pre- 2021 seismicity). Evolved cores are cooler (~1000- 1025 °C). ML-based barometry additionally suggests possible transient crustal crystallization of rims/microlites (~5-10 km or shallower).

Cluster analysis: Six geochemical clusters link to processes, highly evolved clusters (0-1) form antecrystic cores from the phonolitic mush; primitive clusters (especially 5, high- Cr) form recharge- related inner rims and phenocrysts.

Interpretation and Broader Implications

An upper- mantle crystal mush of evolved (phonolitic) composition persists and is repeatedly evacuated and or recycled by basanitic recharge before historical eruptions. Inner- rim thicknesses imply minimum timescales of ~4- 7 days for the final recharge-related growth.

Recharge unlocks the mush but is followed by some cooling/fractionation, so it is not necessarily the direct trigger; progressive pressurization (e.g., from volatile exsolution) likely leads to eruption.

The paper is open access. A PDF is available on the Nature page. This is the scientific study underlying the recent Conversation/UQ article on volcanic crystals as “black boxes.”

Journal information: Nature Communications 17, Article number: 9362 (2026) 

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77213-9

Provided: The Conversation

Authors: Alberto Caracciolo,
Teresa Ubide,
Mónica Ágreda-López,
Raquel Herrera,
Alvaro Marquez,
Diego González-García,
María José Huertas,
Eumenio Ancochea,
Nicolás Chicharro,
Juan Jesús Coello-Bravo &
Maurizio Petrelli 

Abstract

Temporal variations in magma plumbing influence eruption priming and the interpretation of unrest signals, yet remain poorly constrained in low-flux ocean island volcanoes. Here, we examine temporal changes in the active volcanic system beneath La Palma, Canary Islands, using clinopyroxene zoning from the 1712, 1971, and 2021 eruptions. Combining quantitative trace element mapping, thermobarometry, and cluster analysis, we show that preceding all eruptions, an evolved phonolitic crystal mush resided in the upper mantle (∼18–25 km depth) under relatively cool (1000–1025 °C) conditions. At least one week before eruption, basanitic recharge (1100–1150 °C) recycled this mush and promoted magma ascent, potentially with brief stalling in the crust (∼5–10 km). Mafic recharge was critical in unlocking the mush, yet may not represent the immediate eruption trigger. Globally, upper mantle evolved mushes may be common in ocean island basalt volcanoes, and their occurrence is likely controlled by the island evolutionary stage and magma flux.

Climate’s Past Performance Uncertain Predictor of Future

The predictions of climate doomsayers reveal an embarrassing ignorance of a capricious geological history shaped by natural forces too powerful for human control and too complex to allow for meaningful forecasts.

The relatively benign Holocene of nearly 12 millennia has been punctuated by intermittent temperature changes, including 10 warming periods, counting our current one. The most recent era of cold was the Little Ice Age from about 1250 to 1850.

An illustrated infographic depicting climate history over 11,700 years, contrasting past climate performance with future forecasts. It features a whimsical depiction of a 'certified climate expert' and a geologist, emphasizing natural factors affecting climate and stating that past performance doesn't guarantee reliable future forecasts.

From The CO2 Coalition

By Vijay Jayaraj

The predictions of climate doomsayers reveal an embarrassing ignorance of a capricious geological history shaped by natural forces too powerful for human control and too complex to allow for meaningful forecasts.

What can be said is that we are living in the warmth of an interglacial period known as the Holocene Epoch, which began about 11,700 years ago. It followed a frigid span of nearly 90,000 years, when thousands of feet of glacial ice covered Canada and northernmost parts of the region that would become the U.S. Temperatures were lower than the current average by 11 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit.

The relatively benign Holocene of nearly 12 millennia has been punctuated by intermittent temperature changes, including 10 warming periods, counting our current one. The most recent era of cold was the Little Ice Age from about 1250 to 1850.

Climate alarmists treat the “preindustrial” era before 1850 as their starting point for measuring modern temperature, without noting that the period falls within the last gasp of the Little Ice Age. Their hysteria and the climate policy they promote are based on a temperature record that begins during a period of unusual cold and on a subsequent warming of a modest 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 175 years.

If the temperature record were expanded to take in the warmest parts of the Holocene, the same planet would be seen as emerging from an intermediate deep freeze. Research published in Nature shows that marine sediment cores place peak warmth in the first half of the Holocene interglacial, between 10,000 and 6,000 years ago.

Biomarker records from sediment cores in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas, published in the Journal of Quaternary Science, show minimal sea ice during the early Holocene, short-term fluctuations through the middle Holocene, and a marked expansion of ice over the past 4,500 years.

Chukchi Sea reconstruction and the broader Arctic picture both trace an ocean that carried far less ice when no factory existed anywhere on Earth. The ups and downs of modern Arctic ice are wobbles inside a range sustained for more than 11,000 years.

Two thousand years ago, Roman farmers grew grapes and grains at higher latitudes and altitudes that later generations had to abandon because of advancing cold. During the more recent Medieval Warm Period – about 1,000 years ago – Norse settlers lived in southwestern Greenland for close to five centuries, grazed livestock, harvested barley, and buried their dead in churchyard ground that later froze solid and stayed frozen. Tree stumps continue to appear from beneath retreating glaciers in the Alps and the Canadian Arctic, rooted in soil that carbon dating places in the warmth of the middle Holocene.

Then came the temperature decline that was accompanied by horrific consequences for humanity. The Little Ice Age closed Alpine passes, swallowed farms, killed harvests across northern Europe and emptied Greenland settlements. Rivers that had not frozen in human history became sites of ice fairs. Two independent temperature reconstructions, one drawn from Greenland ice and the other from ocean sediments off Indonesia, sit 9,500 miles apart and yet track each other closely in recording a fall of around 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit between the Holocene peak and the coldest of the Little Ice Age.

While broad historical climatic trends can be identified, predicting the future with confidence is tricky at best. Ocean oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic redistribute heat on decadal and centennial clocks that nobody can predict from first principles. Solar output varies. Volcanoes intervene on no schedule. Cloud behavior, the single largest uncertainty in every atmospheric model, responds to all of it. These assemblages of water vapor and aerosols act both as insulators against the loss of nighttime heat and as reflectors sending sunlight back to outer space.

All are mighty forces, along with many others, that operate irrespective of human activity, whose effects are negligible on the grand scale of a climate system of practically infinite complexity.

In the end, what we know is that warmth is better than cold when it comes to human flourishing and that abundant, affordable energy is necessary to build and sustain prosperous societies. And in the meantime, the Holocene climate will keep doing what it has always done, and we will know what that is after it has happened.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India. He served as a research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia, Canada.

Originally published at Real Clear Energy, September 25, 2026.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India. He served as a research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia, Canada.

Argentina President Milei’s UN takedown — Read the transcript

Argentine President Javier Milei delivers a forceful address at the 81st United Nations General Assembly, sharply criticizing the UN and arguing that the organization has moved away from its founding principles.

Milei focuses on three major areas: what he says the UN has failed to accomplish, what he believes the organization should not have undertaken, and the impact of artificial intelligence on the future.

A major part of the speech centers on the Malvinas/Falkland Islands dispute with the United Kingdom. Milei criticizes the UN’s handling of the issue, rejects unilateral resource exploitation in the disputed area and calls for negotiations with the UK. Reuters reported that tensions over oil exploration around the Falkland Islands were a major backdrop to his UN address.

A speaker presenting at the United Nations General Assembly, standing at a podium with the UN emblem in front, against a backdrop of green stone panels.

From CFACT

By CFACT Ed

Mr. President, Heads of State, representatives of the peoples of the world.
Today I address you for the third time as President of all Argentines.

When we took office of a country in ruins, on the brink of the worst crisis in its history, one thing was clear to us from the outset: we had to confront our problems with absolute honesty.
Lying to ourselves in order to feel better was going to get us nowhere.
It’s always preferable to tell an uncomfortable truth than a comforting lie.
So believe me when I say that I know what I’m talking about when, in a constructive spirit, I point to the problems facing this organization which purports to guide states and arbitrate between them.

In that regard, I want to talk about three issues today.
First, what this body should have done and failed to do.
Second, what it should not have done but did anyway.
And third, its position in the face of the advent of artificial intelligence.

Seventy-eight years ago, this House declared that all human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights— noble words whose spirit I fully share.
To that end, it undertook to uphold international law, defend the sovereignty of nations, and provide a forum in which conflicts could be resolved through cooperation rather than immediately through the force of arms.
That was the original purpose, the contract that we all signed.
But today, regrettably, it is time to acknowledge that, in practice, that sacred covenant has been broken.

That’s to say, it’s become a useless organization whose only purpose is to sustain a cast of fatally arrogant parasites, masquerading as well-intentioned bureaucrats.
I would remind them of what Mises said: good people do not think about controlling the lives of their fellow human beings.
Those who were supposed to guarantee collective security and human rights failed in their task.
Instead, they allowed chaos, violence, and international terrorism to flourish.

The alleged defenders of human rights have sheltered bloodthirsty dictatorships and regimes that stone women in the streets.
They have systematically voted against Israel while remaining silent in the face of Islamic terrorism and the genocide of Christians in Africa.
And as if that were not enough, an organization established to defend the territorial sovereignty of its members decided to look the other way with regard to the situation of the Malvinas Islands, South Georgia Islands, South Sandwich Islands, and the surrounding maritime areas.
For us, the Malvinas are a national cause.

I repeat: the Malvinas for us are a national cause.
They are also a test of the gulf that can exist between the words of international institutions and the reality upon which they purport to act.
Fifty years ago, this very Assembly adopted Resolution 3149, which calls on parties to refrain from introducing unilateral modifications while the dispute remains unresolved.
Fifty years on, the situation has not changed, yet unilateral modifications continue.

Today, the Sea Lion Project is moving toward oil extraction on the Argentine continental shelf in the North Malvinas Basin, under British licenses that Argentina rejects as illegal and illegitimate.
Any such activity not authorized by the Argentine Republic in this regard constitutes an unlawful act under both international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and Argentine domestic law.
That is why I wish to ask a question: what use is a resolution if, for decades, the other party can act in direct contravention of it, while that resolution remains intact in the archives but powerless in the face of reality?
There’s no shortage of words or resolutions.

What is lacking is consequences.
Because an institution that cannot ensure that its words carry weight in the real world loses the most important thing of all: its authority.
In these circumstances, those who follow the rules receive no reward for doing so, while those who break them suffer no repercussions whatsoever.
That’s why the Malvinas are not merely an issue between Argentina and the United Kingdom.

They also raise a question regarding the ability of this organization to enforce its own resolutions.
Argentina has taken note of that reality, and in the face of the unauthorized exploitation of our resources in the disputed area, we’ve acted.
We’ve submitted formal notes of protest.
We’ve availed ourselves of the legal remedies at our disposal.

We’ve imposed sanctions on the companies involved and their suppliers.
And we’ve submitted a national sovereignty defense bill to Congress.
For far too long, Argentine governments opted for a rhetorical defense.
We have chosen a peaceful, practical, and effective defense.

I repeat: we have chosen a peaceful, practical, and effective defense.
I also wish to reiterate our position regarding the population of the islands.
As this very Assembly has determined in numerous resolutions, the principle of self-determination does not apply in this case, since the population was implanted by the occupying power on a territory whose sovereignty is in dispute.
That principle exists to liberate colonized people, not to legitimize situations arising from colonization.

If the United Kingdom maintains a selective interpretation of the principle of self-determination with regard to the Malvinas Islands, it must also explain how it reconciles that position with the debates on self-determination taking place within its own territory.
Once again, we call on the United Kingdom to resume negotiations with a view to finding a peaceful solution to the sovereignty dispute, as required by international law.
We also reiterate our invitation to proceed without delay to an exchange of views with a view to resolving the issue concerning the aforementioned dispute over the exploitation of our natural resources.
And I want to say something more to the global energy sector.

Waka Mwertha represents a historic opportunity, with the potential to become one of the major players in the energy sector in the decades ahead.
Come, invest, develop it with us.
But there’s a limit to this invitation.
We will not remain indifferent to those who exploit resources under illegal foreign occupation.

Argentina’s position is clear.
Today I have come to tell you that Argentina is not going to sit around waiting for the UN and the international community to live up to their own mandate.
We’re going to take matters into our own hands.
For far too long, Argentina managed its own decline.

We managed poverty.
We managed isolation.
We managed irrelevance.
We grew accustomed to debating how to divide up what remained, rather than asking ourselves how we could grow again, how we could rebuild what we had lost.

That’s over.
We’ve already lost too much.
We do not want to lose it again.
That’s why we’ve embraced free enterprise capitalism.

We’re opening our economy up to trade and investment.
We’re advancing in the development of our strategic resources.
We’ve embraced the technological revolution, and we are rebuilding our military capabilities after decades of neglect.
We’ve also made a geopolitical choice.

We have unequivocally aligned ourselves with the West, with the United States, and with Israel, countries with which we share a deep affinity of values and strategic complementarity.
That is why we condemn the attacks by the Iranian regime against the State of Israel.
We have designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization and continue to seek justice for the two terrorist attacks perpetrated on Argentine soil in 1992 and 1994.
We have decided to cooperate with the world, but to do so standing tall, in the understanding that only a nation that is politically relevant, economically influential, and militarily respected can truly be a master of its own destiny.

Mr. President, just as I have shown you how the UN failed to do what it was supposed to do, now I want to tell you how it has excelled at what no one asked it to do, and what it should never have been doing.
Because alongside that failure, they have built a bureaucratic leviathan devoted to deciding how the peoples of the world and their citizens should live.
This amounts to a curious mixture of anarchy and tyranny, impotence in the face of those who break the most basic rules, such as bloodthirsty dictatorships and terrorist organizations, coupled with Orwellian control and impositions on liberal democracies that abide by the rules.
We saw this with the Millennium Agenda.

We saw it with the 2030 Agenda, with economic regulation, gender agendas, environmental extremism, and unchecked immigration.
And every time they failed, rather than reviewing the model or apologizing, they doubled down, as they are already doing with the 2045 Agenda, which, I say now, will fail.
But perhaps the most serious example, the one that forever should shame this organization, is quite another.
That is how they managed the pandemic.

During the pandemic, bodies under the auspices of this House put themselves before scientific evidence and the sovereignty of nations and promoted forced lockdown policies throughout the world that ruined jobs, that ruined the education of entire generations of children, and cost the lives of millions of people who died alone without basic medical care.
Where some allege a public health policy error, we see a global experiment in social control disguised as science.
And when a state wearing public health blinkers deprives its population of the right to work, to receive an education, and to bid farewell to their dead, this results in millions of unavoidable deaths, there is a word for it: genocide.
That happens in many countries, including Argentina, which boasted of being the World Health Organization’s star pupil.

And that is why we decided to leave the World Health Organization.
Added to that is something more subtle but equally damaging: the psychological terror instilled by the state.
For years, citizens around the world were told that they should be afraid.
Afraid of their neighbors, of the air they breathe, of leaving their homes.

That fear wasn’t a mere side effect.
It was the chosen instrument of their government.
The problem is that emergencies eventually pass.
Fear passes.

Generations move on.
But the institutions and powers created on the pretext of those alleged emergencies remain.
And if for a moment we allow ourselves to believe that the lesson had been learned after so many failures, the arrival of artificial intelligence demonstrates quite something else.
The printing press, the steam engine, electricity, the internet— every great technological revolution has been accompanied by fears about what it would destroy, particularly jobs.

There is no doubt that this is one of the most effective ways of instilling fear in human beings, given the role of work as a means of subsistence.
Take the Industrial Revolution as an example.
When it began, the world was home to some 800 million human beings.
If, in keeping with the Luddites and the perennial pessimists, employment had at best remained constant, then, given that the world’s population has since increased more than tenfold, the global employment rate today would be at 90%.

That is absurd, something that few of us few seem to have stopped to consider, perhaps except perhaps those of us with a passion for reading Borges, who love his approach for testing an idea by taking it to its logical extreme.
Ultimately, these technological advances have not only failed to produce any of the catastrophes, but in addition, all of these ended up bringing an end to what human beings were able to do.
Today, we have built machines that are able to carry out tasks that only a few months ago seemed out of our reach.
Where we many see a threat, we see a new frontier: artificial intelligence, or superintelligence, as Donald Trump said, can double our productivity in a way that we do not yet comprehend.

To invoke Adam Smith, artificial intelligence will be the pin factory of the 21st century, and much more besides.
It can transform our economies, our medicine, our education, even the way we govern.
That calls for prudence, yes.
But prudence doesn’t mean fear.

Moreover, under no circumstances should fear automatically translate into obedience.
Indeed, the dystopian scenarios commonly invoked to instill fear and justify state control make no sense from an economic standpoint.
The answer lies with Adam Smith.
Artificial intelligence, like the division of labor in the case of the pin factory, is an accelerator of productivity growth.

Smith noted, however, that the division of labor is limited by the extent of the market.
Growth will therefore be constrained by its counterpart in genuine demand, without fiscal deficits or spurious money creation.
But that’s not all.
Those projects must also be financed, and that should be done with the resources of human beings.

That is, their initial endowments and level of wealth, which correspond to the side of the market.
Moreover, the purpose of producing more is to achieve a higher level of consumption.
Yet the satisfaction generated by consumption increases at a decreasing rate, while the loss of satisfaction involved in surrendering leisure in order to produce more rises disproportionately.
Consequently, the point at which the gain from greater consumption is equal to the loss of leisure brings the system to an equilibrium, leaving no room for dystopian terror.

That is why, when we hear that the state should control artificial intelligence, we should remember something basic.
The state is not an abstract creature.
It is made up of people, officials, and bureaucrats.
Granting it control over innovation means granting some people, in the best and most naive of cases, the power to limit what everyone else can create.

History gives us reason to scrutinize such power carefully.
For centuries, fear over tomorrow has been used as an argument for restricting freedoms today, always with the same promise: give us a part of your freedom and we will protect you from this new threat.
We will apply a different principle.
In the face of uncertainty, we propose determination.

In the face of fear, courage.
In the face of decline, ambition.
And in the face of resignation, we propose optimism.
That is why I tell you that when it comes to artificial intelligence, Argentina will stand at the forefront of freedom.

We have the critical minerals, the energy, the talent, and the capacity to compete at every link in that value chain.
And we want to become the most competitive place in the world in which to develop it, with a cutting-edge legal framework, a commitment not to regulate preemptively, a commitment not to regulate preemptively, limited liability for companies operating with AI agents, and tax incentives.
Because artificial intelligence is not geopolitically neutral.
The West must lead the development of this technology to ensure that it is consistent with our fundamental libertarian values, namely respect for life, liberty, private property, and the notion of human dignity.

In that regard, we fully share President Trump’s vision.
Mr. President, we are living through one of those strange moments in history when one world begins to disappear before the next has finished being born.
These are dangerous times, but they are also extraordinary times.
Because during long periods of stability, nations manage the world they have inherited.

During periods of transformation, some have the opportunity to build the world that is to come.
Argentina wants to be one of them.
We will continue to participate in multilateral fora in good faith, because some problems mean that we need to work together.
But we mustn’t confuse cooperation with subordination.

We believe in alliances, and above all, in nations.
Argentina speaks from the experience of a country that knows its own mistakes.
We know the cost of isolation.
We know the cost of destroying a currency.

We know the cost of turning the state into a permanent obstacle to human initiative.
For a century, we tried almost every conceivable way of preventing our own greatness, and we survived.
Not unscathed, but we survived.
Perhaps that is why today we understand something that other nations may forget: decline is not destiny.

It is the result of repeated decisions.
And if a course can be chosen, it can also be changed.
And that is what Argentina is trying to do.
We have the energy that the world will need.

We have food.
We have critical minerals.
We have human talent.
We have the South Atlantic, and we are a natural gateway to Antarctica.

And we have something that for far too long we lacked: the will to transform our potential international power.
We want an Argentina that is prosperous, influential, and powerful.
Not to subjugate others, but to be free.
Not to conquer others, but so that our destiny may be decided by Argentines themselves.

That is why I say to the free men and women of the world, to scientists, entrepreneurs, and creators, to those who have dreamed of a land where they can make a new beginning: look south.
There you will find a vast land of fertile fields, oil, minerals, and human talent.
A land that has welcomed millions who crossed oceans in the hope that their children would live better lives than they had, and who built one of the most prosperous nations on Earth.
We have a responsibility to live up to that legacy.

We do not know exactly what the world now being born will look like, but we do know what kind of nation we want to be when it arrives: a free nation, a prosperous nation, a sovereign one, a nation capable of defending what is its own and open to the world.
A nation unafraid, once again, to utter a word that for far too long seemed forbidden: greatness.
No nation is guaranteed a place in history.
It is built generation after generation, through work, through freedom, and through the determination of a people who refuse to accept that their best days are behind them.

We believe that Argentina still has a great story ahead of it.
And we have decided to go out and claim it.
May God bless all peoples of the world.
May God bless the Argentine Republic.

May the forces of heaven be with us.
And long live freedom, damn it.
On behalf of the Assembly, I wish to thank the President of the Argentine Republic.

Official UN auto-generated transcript.  May contain errors.