The Climate Catastrophe That Toppled the World’s First Empire

The Akkadian Empire (c. 2334- 2154 BCE, Middle Chronology) was the world’s first known multi-ethnic empire.

The 4.2- kiloyear event (also called the 4.2 ka BP event or 4.2 ka megadrought) was a major aridification episode that began around 2200 BCE and lasted roughly 100- 300 years.

Before the empire, Mesopotamia consisted of competing city- states (Early Dynastic period). Sargon of Akkad (also Sharru- kin, “true/legitimate king”; r. c. 2334- 2279 BCE) founded the empire.

A desolate landscape featuring a ruined city on a hill, surrounded by barren terrain and dramatic, stormy skies. The scene is illuminated by a golden sunset.
AI generated by Grok

The Akkadian Empire (c. 2334- 2154 BCE, Middle Chronology) was the world’s first known multi-ethnic empire.

It unified the independent Sumerian city-states of southern Mesopotamia with the Akkadian (Semitic-speaking) regions of the north under a centralized government centered on the city of Akkad (Agade; exact location still unknown, likely near the Euphrates between Sippar and Kish). Its influence extended from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean, parts of Anatolia, and western Iran.

Before the empire, Mesopotamia consisted of competing city- states (Early Dynastic period). Sargon of Akkad (also Sharru- kin, “true/legitimate king”; r. c. 2334- 2279 BCE) founded the empire.

According to later traditions and inscriptions, he rose from humble origins (possibly a cupbearer to the king of Kish), seized power, defeated Lugal- zage- si of Uruk (who had briefly unified much of Sumer), and conquered the southern city- states (Ur, Lagash, Umma, and others). He “washed his weapons in the Lower Sea” (Persian Gulf) and campaigned northward and westward to Mari, Ebla, the “Cedar Forest,” and the “Silver Mountains.”

Sargon created a standing professional army, installed Akkadian governors (ensi), promoted the Akkadian language (while retaining Sumerian for liturgy and literature), developed a postal system, standardized administration, and fostered trade and cultural integration. His sons Rimush (c. 2279- 2270 BCE) and Manishtushu (c. 2270- 2255 BCE) suppressed revolts and continued expansion (including into Elam and the Zagros), though both faced challenges and may have died violently.

The empire reached its height under Sargon’s grandson Naram- Sin (c. 2254- 2218 BCE). He adopted the title “King of the Four Quarters”, declared himself a living god (depicted with a horned helmet on his famous Victory Stele), and conducted campaigns into northern Syria, western Iran, and beyond. The period saw administrative reforms, agricultural surpluses supported by irrigation, artistic achievements, and cultural flourishing that blended Sumerian and Akkadian traditions.

The empire lasted roughly 150–180 years and began declining after Naram-Sin. His son Shar- kali- sharri (c. 2218- 2193 BCE) faced continuous warfare against Elamites, Amorites, and Gutians. A period of anarchy followed (“Who was king? Who was not king?” in the Sumerian King List), with short- lived rulers (including Dudu and the last king, Shu- turul, c. 2168- 2154 BCE). By c. 2154 BCE the empire had collapsed, leading to a “Dark Age” of fragmented city- states until the rise of the Third Dynasty of Ur (Ur III) around 2112 BCE.

Causes were multifactorial (no single explanation is universally accepted):

Climate change / the 4.2- kiloyear event: A major aridification episode around 2200 BCE brought prolonged drought, reduced rainfall (especially in rain- fed northern areas), increased dust storms (shamals), and lower river flows in the Tigris- Euphrates system. This caused agricultural failure, famine, settlement abandonment (e.g., at Tell Leilan in northern Syria), and economic stress. Evidence comes from soil layers, marine cores (Gulf of Oman dust spikes), stalagmites, and coral records. Some studies emphasize this as a primary driver; others note resilience in certain sites and argue it was contributory rather than sole cause.

Internal instability: Revolts, succession crises, over-extension, and possible administrative strain after the strong early rulers.

External pressures: Invasions and infiltration by Gutians (from the Zagros Mountains; traditionally blamed in texts like the Curse of Akkad), Amorites, and Elamites. The Gutians are often credited with the final overthrow, though they may have exploited an already weakened state. Traditional Mesopotamian accounts attributed the fall to divine punishment for Naram- Sin’s hubris (plundering Enlil’s temple at Nippur).

The Akkadian Empire set the template for later Near Eastern empires (centralized rule, professional armies, imperial ideology, and cultural synthesis).

Akkadian became a major lingua franca, and its administrative and artistic models influenced successors including the Ur III dynasty, Old Babylonian, and Assyrian states.

Dates remain approximate due to chronological debates (Middle vs. Short Chronology), and the capital Akkad has never been definitively located.

A vibrant and lush depiction of an ancient, terraced city with grand structures, flowing waterfalls, and intricate gardens along a serene waterway, featuring boats and rich vegetation.
The Akkadian Empire | History

The 4.2- kiloyear event (also called the 4.2 ka BP event or 4.2 ka megadrought) was a major aridification episode that began around 2200 BCE and lasted roughly 100- 300 years.

It marks the start of the Meghalayan Age (the current stage of the Holocene epoch) and is considered one of the most severe climatic shifts of the Holocene.

It involved reduced precipitation, cooler conditions in some regions, weakened monsoons, and increased dust activity across parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the Middle East, Mediterranean, North Africa, and South Asia.

The Akkadian Empire (c. 2334- 2154 BCE) expanded into and heavily relied on the rain- fed (dry- farming) agricultural plains of northern Mesopotamia (especially the Khabur Plains in what is now northeastern Syria). These northern areas supplied grain that supported the empire’s core in southern Mesopotamia, which depended more on irrigation from the Tigris and Euphrates.

Around 2200- 2150 BCE, the empire experienced rapid decline and collapse: widespread abandonment of northern settlements, political fragmentation, anarchy after the reign of Shar- kali- sharri, and eventual loss of central authority (with the last kings ruling a diminished realm before the Gutian period). Many scholars, led by archaeologist Harvey Weiss (based on excavations at Tell Leilan), argue that the 4.2 ka event was a key or primary driver of this collapse.

Proposed mechanism: A sharp drop in winter rainfall (estimates of 30- 50% reduction in some models) and prolonged drought caused agricultural failure in the rain- dependent north. This led to crop shortfalls, famine, economic stress, population movements (refugees moving south), social unrest, and vulnerability to external groups (Gutians, Amorites, Elamites). Southern irrigation agriculture was somewhat more resilient but still affected by reduced river flows. Dust storms (shamals) further degraded soils and may have caused salinization of fields.

Key Supporting Evidence

  • Archaeological: Abrupt abandonment of urban and rural sites on the Khabur Plains (e.g., Tell Leilan shows a thick sterile dust layer with no earthworm activity around 2200 BCE). Settled area in surveyed regions dropped dramatically (up to 87% in some transects); many sites remained unoccupied for ~300 years until resettlement around 1900 BCE.
  • Paleoclimate proxies:
    • Gulf of Oman sediment cores: Sharp increase in Mesopotamian-sourced dust at ~4.1 ka.
    • Iranian stalagmites (e.g., Gol- e- Zard Cave): Abrupt rises in Mg/Ca ratios (indicating dust) and δ¹⁸O (drying) from ~4.26- 3.97 ka, timed closely with northern settlement abandonments (~4.19 ka).
    • Fossil corals from Oman: Evidence of prolonged winter shamal (dust storm) seasons and colder conditions around 4.1 ka, linked to agricultural failure.
    • Soil morphology, pollen, and lake records showing aridification.
    • Climate models (e.g., HadCM3): Indicate minima in precipitation and Tigris- Euphrates flow around 2200- 2000 BCE, driven partly by changes in Western Disturbances (Mediterranean-sourced winter rains).

The event is also linked to disruptions elsewhere, including the end of Egypt’s Old Kingdom and changes in the Indus Valley, suggesting a broader regional or hemispheric phenomenon possibly related to North Atlantic cooling (Bond event 3).

The climate- collapse link is influential but not universally accepted as the sole or decisive cause:

Some isotopic studies of human remain from northern Syrian sites (e.g., Tell Brak, Tell Barri, Tell Arbid) show continuity in diet and subsistence with no clear signature of major drought- induced change, suggesting local resilience or that political and economic factors were more important.

Collapse may have resulted from a combination of factors: climate stress amplifying pre- existing issues such as over- expansion into marginal lands, overpopulation and urban overshoot, internal revolts, succession crises, and external invasions.

Chronology uncertainties, regional variability in the climate signal, and the empire’s southern irrigation base complicate a purely climatic explanation. Some view the “collapse” more as reorganization than total societal failure.

In summary, the 4.2- kiloyear event provides strong evidence of severe aridification that closely coincided with, and likely significantly contributed to the Akkadian Empire’s decline by undermining its northern agricultural base. While climate was probably a major stressor, most researchers now see the fall as multifactorial, with environmental change interacting with social, political, and economic vulnerabilities.

UN Panic: What if President Trump Vetoes all the Globalist Climate Warrior Secretary General Candidates?

Apparently, UN favoured candidates are not impressing Team Trump. But there is another potential candidate who might tick everyone’s box.

Obviously a new kind of candidate is needed – someone who fulfils President Trump’s wishes for a less influential United Nations, yet who also fulfils the UN requirement for a dedicated globalist climate warrior.

A humorous cartoon depicting a scene at the UN where various delegates look shocked and panicked as a man resembling Donald Trump enters the room holding a large 'VETO' stamp, while the others hold signs related to climate agendas and secretary-general candidacies.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Apparently, UN favoured candidates are not impressing Team Trump. But there is another potential candidate who might tick everyone’s box.


In a world of wars and climate crisis, a new leader could save the UN. But would Trump allow it?

Steve Bloomfield
Sun 20 Sep 2026 23.38 AEST

As the organisation meets this week, it remains the best hope for restoring order. But it relies on goodwill from the US president – and that is lacking

If all goes to plan, at some stage in the coming weeks 15 diplomats will emerge from a small sound-proofed room deep in the bowels of the United Nations headquarters in New York and announce the organisation’s next secretary-general.

The person they choose will face a combination of challenges unlike any that their predecessors have had to deal with. Two of the security council’s permanent members, the US and Russia, are engaged in wars of choice that have no end in sight. A UN commission of inquiry has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, but the UN has effectively been reduced to the role of bystander, pushed out by Donald Trump’s Board of Peace. The climate crisis is creating a cascade of new humanitarian disasters, while every day now seems to bring a new security threat caused by the unregulated rise of AI.

All of this is happening in a world in which the very principles of the UN – multilateralism, a rules-based order and international law – are under threat.

…

It is not easy to argue you are best placed to save the UN when the man you need to persuade would rather it fails.

…Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/sep/20/un-new-leader-wars-climate-crisis-donald-trump

Obviously a new kind of candidate is needed – someone who fulfils President Trump’s wishes for a less influential United Nations, yet who also fulfils the UN requirement for a dedicated globalist climate warrior.

I once again present former Australian PM and former Aussie ambassador to the USA, Kevin Rudd.

The following video is Kevin Rudd’s unique diplomatic talent on display. Shortly before his appointment as Australia’s ambassador to the USA, Rudd frantically deleted a whole bunch of disparaging public comments about President Trump, but to Rudd’s surprise, the President got to hear about his disparaging comments anyway.

Rudd in my opinion has a long track record of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. In the words of former political colleague and Midnight Oil singer Peter Garrett, from last time Kevin Rudd was in the running as UN Secretary General;

…

In an extract from the memoir, read out by interviewer Melissa Doyle, Garrett wrote supporting Kevin Rudd was “certainly the biggest” mistake he made in his political career.

He didn’t back down from that position in the interview.

“I’ve been particularly strong in this book about leadership and Rudd’s leadership and I think it needed to be said,” Garrett said.

“I’m critical of him, that’s true, very critical, but I think for good reason.”

Another of his criticisms is that Mr Rudd jeopardised the safety of Australia.

“It’s a big call, but I stand by it,” Garrett said. He added Mr Rudd treated people with “an enormous amount of contempt” and made “the business of the country almost ungovernable”.

When pushed on what danger he feared Mr Rudd posed, Garrett said the former PM was “unpredictable” and he didn’t know what he “could or would do”.

…Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-garrett-says-kevin-rudd-was-a-danger-to-australia-in-tv-interview-20151011-gk6i04.html

Other political figures are also scathing – though Rudd draws some surprising support;

…

Some conservative MPs and ministers are opposed to Mr Rudd being nominated.

“This guy did his best to ruin our country,” South Australian MP Tony Pasin said in April. “That we would think about imposing him on the rest of the world beggars belief.”

But he has received public endorsements from prominent figures including UK economist Lord Nicholas Stern and former East Timor president and Nobel prize winner Jose Ramos-Horta.

…Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/kevin-rudd-seeks-australian-government-support-for-un-secretary-general-candidacy-20160717-gq7sfw.html

Another endorsement, this time from the leftist Sydney Morning Herald;

You cannot be serious: Kevin Rudd would be a disaster as UN chief

Nicholas Stuart
July 22, 2016 — 5:02pm

There’s no need to explain why Kevin Rudd would be a disaster for the UN: that’s a given.

The functioning human being vanished long ago, consumed by hatred. Back then he worked, unrelentingly, to destroy Julia Gillard, even if it meant pulling Labor’s house down around him. When reinstalled in office he suffered one of the most precipitate declines in polling ever recorded by a PM. Then his disastrous re-election campaign ran off the road. It remained bogged, spinning out ever-wilder ideas in a desperate attempt to cut through. He promised he’d set things to rights, but that was always the critical failing of the Rudd project – it relied completely on him. There was never any room for anyone else. In those final days in office he was travelling around the country in a bubble of his own imagination, utterly detached from reality.

Today the fantasy continues. At first he genuinely thought he might have a role here as an elder statesman. His colleagues urged him to go and he shuffled off overseas. Amazingly, and by all accounts, he does appear to have reinvented himself. But that’s a long way from being a viable contender for Secretary General of the UN.

He hasn’t really managed to convince anybody other than himself that he’s actually got a chance at achieving the top job. It’s ludicrously wishful thinking. To believe he has any chance of heading the world body is stunningly, breathtakingly naive. The scenario he’s peddling has all the obvious contenders fighting one another to a standstill allowing Rudd to glide, untouched and seemingly unassailable, through the middle. It won’t happen.

…Read more: https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/you-cannot-be-serious-kevin-rudd-would-be-a-disaster-as-un-chief-20160722-gqbbwx.html

Despite everything, Rudd ticks all the boxes for his globalist and climate beliefs. He apparently even speaks fluent Mandarin.

My only reservation about advocating Kevin Rudd is the remote possibility he might start World War Three. But the man’s ability to alienate his strongest supporters, to cause disunity where formerly there was harmony, to offend, to divide, to break the unbreakable, is a gift to the world. The damage such a person would do to the UN in my opinion would likely be irreparable.

If you know someone who has the ear of the President, please suggest Kevin Rudd. Rudd has repeatedly demonstrated an uncanny ability to win enough support to secure important diplomatic posts, yet has a near unbroken track record of making a complete mess of whatever post he wins, until he is finally ejected in a flurry of embarrassment and damage control.

Yellowstone Supereruption Would Trigger Years-Long Volcanic Winter and Global Crop Failures

A full- scale supereruption at Yellowstone (Volcanic Explosivity Index 8, similar to the one ~631,000 years ago that formed the current caldera) would be a global catastrophe, but it would not end humanity.

A Yellowstone supereruption would almost certainly trigger a volcanic winter, a period of global cooling caused by massive injections of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and ash into the stratosphere.

A dramatic volcanic eruption with a massive plume of ash and smoke rising into a stormy sky, set against a sunset over snow-covered mountains.
AI generated by Grok

A full- scale super-eruption at Yellowstone (Volcanic Explosivity Index 8, similar to the one ~631,000 years ago that formed the current caldera) would be a global catastrophe, but it would not end humanity.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) emphasizes that the odds of such an event in the next few thousand years are extremely low, on the order of one in a million annually or less. Yellowstone’s more probable near- term hazards are smaller lava flows, hydrothermal explosions, or earthquakes.

Here’s what a worst- case caldera- forming super-eruption would likely involve, based on USGS assessments, ash- dispersion models, and scientific reconstructions:

Immediate local effects (hours to days)

Massive explosive blasts and pyroclastic flows (superheated clouds of gas, ash, and rock racing at high speed) would devastate Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas in Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho, potentially within tens of kilometers of the vents.

Anyone remaining in the immediate zone would face near-certain death from heat, blast, or asphyxiation. Immediate fatalities could number in the hundreds to low thousands if evacuation were incomplete.

An eruption column could rise 30- 50 km into the stratosphere. The ground surface would collapse as magma is expelled, reshaping or enlarging the caldera.

Regional effects across North America (days to weeks)

Volcanic ash would blanket large parts of the western and central United States. Near the park, deposits could reach meters thick; farther away (e.g., Midwest or even parts of the East), centimeters to tens of centimeters.

Ash would collapse roofs, clog engines and air filters, contaminate water supplies, short electrical systems, shut down airports, highways, and rail, and destroy crops and livestock over vast areas.

Power, communications, sewage, and supply chains would fail across multiple states. Agriculture in the breadbasket regions would be severely damaged.

Air quality would become hazardous over much of the continent, straining hospitals with respiratory problems.

Global effects (months to years or decades)

Sulfur- rich gases injected into the stratosphere would form aerosols that reflect sunlight, causing a “volcanic winter”. Global temperatures could drop several degrees Celsius for years to a decade or more, disrupting weather patterns and rainfall.

Worldwide crop failures, food shortages, and soaring prices would follow. Indirect deaths from famine, disease, and economic collapse could reach hundreds of millions in severe scenarios (some recent analyses have estimated 0.7- 1.3 billion premature deaths in extreme modeling, though these are upper-bound thought experiments).

International trade, aviation, and economies would face prolonged disruption. Regions in the Southern Hemisphere and far from major ash fallout would fare better but still feel climate and supply- chain impacts.

Humanity would survive. Populations outside the worst- affected zones, with stored food, technology, and adaptive capacity, would persist, though civilization would face severe stress for years to decades.

Important context from USGS

Most of Yellowstone’s eruptions in the past 70,000 and more years have been relatively quiet lava flows confined to the caldera, not explosive super- eruptions.

The volcano is closely monitored (seismometers, GPS, gas chemistry, etc.). Clear warning signs- intense earthquake swarms, rapid ground uplift, hydrothermal changes- would precede any major event by weeks to months, allowing evacuations.

A super-eruption is not “overdue.” Volcanoes do not erupt on fixed schedules.

In short: a true Yellowstone super-eruption today would rank among the worst natural disasters in human history, with devastating regional destruction and multi- year global climate and food- system shocks. It would reshape modern society but would not wipe out the human species. The far more realistic near-term risks from the Yellowstone system remain localized hydrothermal explosions and earthquakes.

A barren landscape with dead vegetation and a gray sky, featuring a sun partly obscured by clouds and smoke billowing from mountains in the background, creating an apocalyptic atmosphere.
AI generated by Grok

A Yellowstone supereruption would almost certainly trigger a volcanic winter, a period of global cooling caused by massive injections of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and ash into the stratosphere.

How a volcanic winter forms

In a large explosive eruption (VEI 8, like Yellowstone’s last caldera-forming event ~631,000 years ago):

  • The eruption column reaches the stratosphere (30- 50 km high).
  • Sulfur dioxide reacts with water vapor to form sulfate aerosols.
  • These tiny particles reflect incoming sunlight back to space and absorb some outgoing heat.
  • The result is reduced solar radiation reaching Earth’s surface → cooling that lasts years to decades until the aerosols gradually settle out.

Ash itself contributes less to long- term cooling (it falls out faster), but a thick continental ash blanket can also raise surface albedo (reflectivity) and add regional cooling for years.

Expected climate impacts of a Yellowstone- scale event

Scientific modeling and comparisons with past eruptions (and smaller modern ones like Pinatubo 1991) suggest:

Global average temperature drop: Roughly 1- 4°C (2- 7°F) for several years, with some studies pointing toward the lower end (~1-1.5°C global average) while regional effects are stronger. Land areas, especially central North America, could see drops of 5- 10°C or more in the first years.

Duration: Peak cooling in the first 1- 3 years; noticeable effects lasting a decade or longer before gradual recovery. Full return to pre- eruption temperatures could take 10- 20 and more years.

Regional extremes: Stronger cooling over continents than oceans. Disturbed weather patterns (changes to precipitation, jet stream, monsoons, El Niño/Southern Oscillation). Increased sea ice at the poles.

Historical parallel: The 1815 Tambora eruption (much smaller) produced the “Year Without a Summer” (global cooling of ~0.4- 0.7°C). Yellowstone would be far larger. Past Yellowstone events themselves caused ocean cooling of ~3°C lasting roughly a century in some records.

Consequences of the volcanic winter

  • Widespread crop failures and reduced agricultural yields for multiple years, especially in the Northern Hemisphere.
  • Food shortages, soaring prices, and potential famine on a massive scale.
  • Economic disruption, supply- chain collapse, and secondary effects (disease, social unrest).
  • Ecosystems stressed by cooler temperatures, altered rainfall, and reduced sunlight.

The USGS states that a large Yellowstone eruption “would probably alter global weather patterns and have enormous impacts on human activity (especially agricultural production) for many years,” though exact magnitude and duration cannot be predicted precisely.

Important caveats

  • A full supereruption is extremely unlikely in the near future.
  • Not all Yellowstone eruptions would produce this level of climate forcing, most past activity consisted of smaller lava flows with minimal global impact.
  • Humanity would survive, but modern society would face severe, multi- year stress.

In short, a Yellowstone super-eruption’s most far- reaching danger beyond the immediate blast and ash fall would be the resulting volcanic winter and its cascading effects on global food systems and climate.

100% of Green Climate Fund “adaptation” projects are not about adaptation

The Green Climate Fund is not funding climate change adaptation.

It is extremely unlikely that there is a bias in project goals based on the spelling of each country’s name, so taking all of the first few adaptation projects listed gives us a random sample of all such projects.

If the countries donating to the GCF think they are contributing to climate change adaptation, they should think again. It is just ordinary foreign aid which they would be better off doing themselves.

A gloved hand reaches out from a laptop, holding a dollar bill while green smoke swirls around, symbolizing digital crime or hacking.
A hand grips a dollar amid a laptop spewing green digital streams and vapor, illustrating cyber theft and virtual financial security breaches.

From CFACT

By David Wojick

In a previous article, I gave three examples of Green Climate Fund (GCF) projects that clearly met immediate needs, so they were not funding adaptation to climate change. See “The Green Climate Fund is greenwashing normal foreign aid.”

Commenters correctly pointed out that this three-project selection was not sufficient to establish the general trend that was alleged. It could just be cherry picking. So here, I present a random sample of projects which is sufficient to draw valid statistical conclusions.

Statistical sampling theory is based on probability theory, so a random sample is necessary in order to draw valid conclusions about the population sampled. For example, the global and regional surface temperature statistics use what is called a convenience sample, which is not random, so they are invalid. But I digress.

The UNFCCC database of GCF projects lists them alphabetically by the lead country.

It is extremely unlikely that there is a bias in project goals based on the spelling of each country’s name, so taking all of the first few adaptation projects listed gives us a random sample of all such projects.

In this case, I have taken the first seven “adaptation” projects and briefly assessed each for meeting immediate needs versus adaptation to climate change. 100% of them address immediate needs, so we can validly infer that it is very likely that 100% of the entire population of “adaptation” projects are not about adaptation to climate change.

Here are the assessments of the first seven listed adaptation projects:

1. “ALBAdapt – Climate Services for a Resilient Albania

….develop a fully functional and well-resourced National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (NMHS) that complies with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards. The project also includes the implementation of a people-centered Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) and the foundation for ecosystem-based approaches to climate change adaptation (EbA) and disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR).”

$40 million

So basically, weather forecasts and early warning of disasters. This is good stuff, but as they say in the project description, Albania is already subject to bad weather and floods, etc. It meets immediate needs.

2. “Empowering Women Groups to Build Resilience to Climate Impacts in the Province of Cunene in South West Angola (CREW Angola)

Angola, particularly the Cunene region, faces serious socio-economic challenges that increase its vulnerability to climate change. Rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and frequent droughts threaten the region’s rainfed agriculture. Women, who are key contributors to agricultural production, are disproportionately affected due to limited access to resources.

This project aims to address these challenges by adopting a gender-transformative approach to enable communities to better adapt to changing conditions. It focuses on sectors most affected by climate risks, such as agriculture, water, and nutrition. It invests in financial literacy and improved farming technologies and innovation, both of which will directly contribute to enhancing local adaptive capacity and transforming food systems.”

$10 million

The serious risk of unpredictable rainfall and frequent droughts is already there, so this project is addressing an immediate need.

3. “Resilience to hurricanes in the building sector in Antigua and Barbuda

This project addresses the resilience of building construction in the country, in addition to climate information systems and post-disaster responses. It will climate proof critical public service and community buildings to improve resilience to, and recovery from, extreme climate events.”

$46 million

These folks are already battered by hurricanes and calling them “extreme climate events” does not change that. In fact, it is a marketing hoax. Resilience to hurricanes is a great idea, but it is an immediate need that does not arise from climate change.

4. “Integrated physical adaptation and community resilience through an enhanced direct access pilot in the public, private, and civil society sectors of three Eastern Caribbean small island developing states

Strengthening the resilience of three Caribbean islands to climate change-related threats by improving the hurricane resilience of community buildings, homes, and businesses, and through flood prevention measures.”

$22.6 million

As above, hurricanes are already happening, so preparing for them is an immediate need not a “climate change-related threat.”

5. “Multi-country Project Advancing Early Warnings for All (EW4All)

This project aims to strengthen the resilience of communities in seven countries (Antigua and Barbuda, Chad, Cambodia, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Fiji, and Somalia) by improving the production, dissemination and effective use of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS).”

$115 million

The project description says, “Hazards like heatwaves, floods, landslides, and droughts cause devastating loss of lives and assets, socio-economic instability, and inequality.” An early warning system is clearly a good idea, but it is an immediate need that has nothing to do with climate change adaptation.

6. “Scaling up national adaptive capacities for climate change-driven natural hazards through strengthening monitoring and early warning systems

Structured around three components, the project will modernize meteorological and hydrological observation and forecasting systems; strengthen early warning dissemination through multi-channel alerting and risk communication; and develop innovative resilience financing mechanisms, including forecast-based financing and climate micro-insurance, to sustain early action and encourage private sector engagement.”

$10 million

Another useful early warning system for existing hazards, not for climate change.

7. “Glaciers to Farms (G2F) Regional Program: Advancing Climate Resilience & Sustainable Development in Central and West Asia

G2F will deliver substantial, measurable improvements in climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. The programme aims to reduce the vulnerability of approximately 45 million people across nine countries by providing more stable water and food supplies, infrastructure that can withstand shocks, stronger social safety nets, and healthier ecosystems.”

$3.5 billion

The listed recipient countries are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In these poor countries, more stable water and food supplies are an immediate need without climate change.

Seven projects is a relatively small sample of the roughly 200 adaptation projects on the list, so I scanned the next 23 and found all 30 to be addressing immediate needs. 30 out of 200 is a sizable sample, which greatly strengthens the 100% inference.

Calling naturally occurring extreme weather “climate events” is a marketing trick. The Green Climate Fund is not funding climate change adaptation.

As I said in my prior article, the Green Climate Fund says that 60% of their billions in project funding is directed toward adaptation. They are really just meeting immediate needs which makes this greenwashing on a grand scale.

If the countries donating to the GCF think they are contributing to climate change adaptation, they should think again. It is just ordinary foreign aid which they would be better off doing themselves.

Climate Collapse! Four Billion to Perish?

“The doom industry is alive and well despite a litany of failed predictions along the way…. Statism and statism alone can cause mass destruction and deaths, as proven in the 20th century…. The ‘insurance policy’ against this is a free society based on private property rights, voluntary exchange, and the rule of law.”

An illustrated cartoon depicting a dramatic headline about climate collapse, featuring a 'Doom-O-Meter' indicating a potential for 4 billion deaths. The left shows a panicking man and a scientist discussing climate impacts, while the right portrays a busy city scene with a sunny day, people enjoying outdoor activities, and construction in progress.

From Master Resource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

“The doom industry is alive and well despite a litany of failed predictions along the way…. Statism and statism alone can cause mass destruction and deaths, as proven in the 20th century…. The ‘insurance policy’ against this is a free society based on private property rights, voluntary exchange, and the rule of law.”

The world’s most viewed climate website (WUWT) contains a list of the exaggerated, failed apocalyptic predictions from neo-Malthusians in the last half century. So I was surprised to see this new prediction making the rounds.

Mark Campbell, “environmental journalist and communicator,” posted at his website: “Insurers Say Half the World Could Be Killed by Climate Change” (June 11, 2026). I learned of him and this prediction in a LinkedIn exchange where he protested against Michael Shellenberger’s “Caught Pushing an Apocalyptic Scenario They Knew Couldn’t Occur, Climate Scientists Are Now Claiming Their Policies Prevented It.” Cambell commented:

Some of the worst misinformation I’ve had the displeasure to read on LinkedIn and Substack. A total misrepresentation of the UN report. This sentence says it all: “They say the new worst-case scenario is just 3.3 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100 over pre-industrial temperatures.” JUST 3.3 degrees?! 3.3 degrees would cause the deaths of 4 billion people, according to a report by the insurance industry – and they understand risk. Check out the 4 Billion Dead movement if you want actual facts.

It’s a scandal of sorts:

I would wager that’s the most important story of your lifetime. But chances are, you haven’t even read it, heard it, seen it. It was in the news cycle briefly in January 2025, and came from extremely credible sources. It was reported on by the likes of The Guardian, Grist, and the insurance media but soon disappeared.

Campbell bases his gloomy warning on a report, Planetary Solvency – Finding Our Balance with Nature, published in January 2025 by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in collaboration with the University of Exeter. “The IFoA is the professional body for actuaries,” Campbell explains,

who underpin global insurance and pension markets – so it’s basically the insurance industry, which is why it carries significant weight. They understand the risks. They need to know the facts.

Other Support

Wilmar Igl, a statistician from Sweden. commented:

In fact, Professor Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber provided an educated “guess-timate” of the maximum carrying capacity of 1 billion (1 000 000 000) humans under un-controlled global warming at a plenary talk at COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009 (Schellnhuber, 2015, p. 507).

Professor William Steffen, a leading climate scientist and senior research fellow at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, also used Schellnhuber’s estimate for the maximum carrying capacity of “hothouse earth” at a recent presentation at Uppsala University on March 16, 2019. However, at present 7.6 billion people are living on planet Earth. Even if these estimates of the maximum carrying capacity are way off and the actual number is 5 billions, it still indicates an existential crisis for future generations. [1]

The catastrophists are out in force.

In mid-June, Action Network hosted “The 4 Billion Dead International Public Call,” described here. Doug Grandt contends the debate is over:

Don’t waste any more time engaging in this manufactured brouhaha [of skeptics]… even XOM has acknowledged the foreshadowing of imminent collapse as posted nearby by Rob de Laet https://lnkd.in/p/gfWYA9VH

What does the Brazilian de Laet, “Co-LeadeWhat does the Brazilian de Laet, “Co-Leader at Climate Cooling Initiative,” state?

Emissions cuts alone arrive way too late. We must also actively cool the planet the way Earth has always cooled itself: restoring forests, water cycles and living landscapes at scale, and financing the people who already protect them…. Where is our plan?r at Climate Cooling Initiative,” state?

EXPECT TWO TO FOUR BILLION PEOPLE TO PERISH
Their risk matrix:
▪️ 2°C or more by 2050: “Catastrophic.” GDP losses above 25%, potential mortality above 2 billion people, ocean circulation severely impacted, involuntary migration of billions of people.
▪️ 3°C or more by 2050: “Extreme.” GDP losses of 50% or more, potential mortality above 4 billion, global tipping point cascade, breakdown of critical Earth climate and social systems.
Exxon’s business-as-usual forecast lands squarely between those two rows.

The dashboard already rates the risk trajectory for climate and nature as RED.
So this is where we stand: the fossil industry publishes 2.5 to 3°C as a routine market outlook, and the actuarial profession tells us that range means civilizational breakdown. Both documents are public.

Emissions cuts alone arrive way too late. We must also actively cool the planet the way Earth has always cooled itself: restoring forests, water cycles and living landscapes at scale, and financing the people who already protect them…. Where is our plan?

Conclusion

The doom industry is alive and well despite a litany of failed predictions along the way. Remember what Obama’s two-term science advisor John Holdren said? Back in the 1980s, he forecast that as many as a billion people could perish from climate change.

Statism and statism alone can cause mass destruction and deaths, as proven in the 20th century by such names as Mao Zedong, Adolf Hitler, and Joseph Stalin. The ‘insurance policy’ against this is a free society based on private property rights, voluntary exchange, and the rule of law.

[1] References: Schellnhuber, HJ (2015). Selbstverbrennung. Bertelsmann, p. 507.

Steffen, W. (2019-03-16). Climate Change 2019: Rising Risks; Growing Challenges. Uppsala University, Retrieved 2019-05-21 from https://bit.ly/2Isb0Ue .

Rees, W. E. (2019-09-18). Yes, the Climate Crisis May Wipe out Six Billion People. The Tyee Online Magazine. URL: https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/09/18/Climate-Crisis-Wipe-Out/

NEP Global Environmental Alert Service (GEAS) (2012). One Planet, How Many People? A Review of Earth’s Carrying Capacity – A discussion paper for the year of RIO+20. URL: https://na.unep.net/geas/archive/pdfs/geas_jun_12_carrying_capacity.pdf

McKinsey Global Institute (January 2020). Climate risk and response – physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts. (“Livability and workability”, p. 98), https://mck.co/2ZuSYcV

Global economy could face 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 from climate shocks, say actuaries

Ancient Himalayan- Scale Mountains Buried Under Antarctica Helped Fuel the Rise of Complex Life

Gondwanan Super mountains (also called the Gondwana Super- mountains or linked to the earlier term Transgondwanan Super mountain) refer to an enormous network of Himalayan- scale mountain ranges that formed during the assembly of the supercontinent Gondwana roughly 650- 450 million years ago.

Researchers analyzed 1,712 detrital zircon grains recovered from marine sediments around Antarctica (plus earlier Antarctic zircon data). Zircons act as durable “time capsules”: U- Pb dating gives crystallization ages, while chemistry (including indicators of high-pressure conditions) reveals the tectonic environment in which they formed.

A panoramic view of mountains beneath ice in Antarctica, with a caption about ancient Himalayan-scale mountains contributing to the rise of complex life.
AI generated by Grok

Researchers Bei Chen (GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences) and Ian H. Campbell (Australian National University) studied microscopic zircon grains from marine sediments around Antarctica. These grains, eroded from ancient mountain roots now buried under ice, mostly date to 650- 450 million years ago, during the assembly of the supercontinent Gondwana (which included modern Antarctica, South America, Africa, Arabia, India, Australia, and Madagascar).

Comparisons with global river- sediment data indicate many zircons originated deep in the roots of Himalayan- scale peaks. The authors describe the Gondwanan Super- mountains as “the largest ultra-high mountain network in Earth’s history.”

As these vast ranges eroded, they delivered large volumes of sediment and nutrients into the oceans. This is thought to have boosted photosynthetic microbes at the base of the food web, increasing oxygen production. Sediment from the mountains also helped bury organic carbon, preventing it from recombining with oxygen and thereby allowing atmospheric oxygen levels to rise.

The researchers note that Earth’s most dramatic evolutionary period (leading into the Cambrian explosion) coincides with this major episode of mountain building, and they consider the connection unlikely to be coincidental.

The study is published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters. It builds on earlier ideas about “super mountains” influencing the evolution of life.

Gondwanan Super mountains (also called the Gondwana Super- mountains or linked to the earlier term Transgondwanan Super mountain) refer to an enormous network of Himalayan- scale mountain ranges that formed during the assembly of the supercontinent Gondwana roughly 650- 450 million years ago.

These were among the largest ultra- high mountain systems in Earth’s history. Estimates for the main Transgondwanan segment put it at over 8,000 km long and more than 1,000 km wide, roughly three to four times the length of today’s Himalayas. They rose through major continental collisions as East and West Gondwana came together (involving blocks that now form parts of Antarctica, India, Australia, Africa/Kalahari, Arabia, and related regions).

A 2026 study by Bei Chen and Ian H. Campbell (published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters) used detrital zircon grains from Antarctic marine sediments to show that Antarctica’s tectonics during this interval were dominated by such Himalayan- style mountains.

Chemical signatures in many zircons point to deep crustal roots formed under extreme pressures. The authors describe the Gondwanan Supermountains as “the largest ultra- high mountain network in Earth’s history”, with remnants of those roots still lying beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

As the ranges eroded (before land plants existed, so erosion rates were exceptionally high), they dumped vast quantities of sediment and nutrients (phosphorus, iron, etc.) into surrounding oceans. This is thought to have:

  • Stimulated blooms of photosynthetic microbes, boosting oxygen production.
  • Enabled rapid burial of organic carbon and reduced materials (e.g., pyrite) in what may have been the largest turbidite/sediment fan systems in the geological record. Burial allowed free oxygen to accumulate in the atmosphere rather than being consumed again.

The resulting rise in atmospheric oxygen is considered one of the largest in Earth’s history and is linked to the appearance of the first large animals (~575 Ma, Ediacaran) and the subsequent Cambrian explosion (~538- 530 Ma), when most major animal groups appear in the fossil record. Researchers note that the timing of this mountain- building and erosion episode with these evolutionary milestones is unlikely to be coincidental.

This concept builds on earlier work:

  • 2006 research (Squire, Campbell and others) introduced the Transgondwanan Super mountain as a potential trigger for the Cambrian radiation via nutrient flux and sedimentation.
  • A 2022 study (Zhu, Campbell and colleagues) identified only two major super mountain episodes in Earth history: the older Nuna Super- mountains (~2.0-1.8 billion years ago, linked to early eukaryotes) and the Gondwanan/Transgondwanan event. Mountain building was limited during the intervening “Boring Billion.”

In short, the Gondwanan Super mountains represent a key geological driver that helped set the environmental stage for the rise of complex animal life.

Do Himalayan- style mountains lie under the Antarctic ice: Implication for the Gondwana Super mountains, the rise of oxygen and the Cambrian explosion?

Researchers analyzed 1,712 detrital zircon grains recovered from marine sediments around Antarctica (plus earlier Antarctic zircon data). Zircons act as durable “time capsules”: U- Pb dating gives crystallization ages, while chemistry (including indicators of high-pressure conditions) reveals the tectonic environment in which they formed.

  • A strong age peak occurs between 650 and 450 million years ago, coinciding with the assembly of the supercontinent Gondwana.
  • Many zircons carry chemical signatures typical of the deep roots of Himalayan- style (ultra- high) mountains, rocks that experienced extreme pressures under thick crustal piles.
  • When the Antarctic data are integrated into global river- sediment zircon compilations (area- weighted), the Gondwanan signal stands out as the largest supercontinent- related mountain- building peak in Earth’s history. The authors call these the Gondwanan Super mountains, the largest ultra- high mountain network known.

Collisions involving blocks that are now Antarctica, India, Australia, and the Kalahari are inferred to have built these ranges. Their roots are interpreted to still lie buried beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

As the supermountains eroded, they delivered enormous volumes of sediment and nutrients (including phosphorus and iron) into surrounding oceans. This is thought to have:

  • Stimulated primary production by photosynthetic microbes (algae and cyanobacteria), increasing oxygen generation.
  • Enabled rapid burial of organic carbon and pyrite- rich sediments in what may have been the largest turbidite fan system in the geological record. Burial prevented the oxygen from being consumed again, allowing atmospheric O₂ levels to rise substantially.

The authors argue that the temporal overlap between this major mountain- building and erosion episode and Earth’s most dramatic evolutionary radiation (the appearance of large animals in the Ediacaran and the Cambrian explosion ~538- 530 Ma) is unlikely to be coincidental.

This work extends earlier “super mountain” ideas (including the Transgondwanan Super mountain concept) by specifically highlighting Antarctica’s contribution and the chemical evidence for Himalayan-scale topography.

Full text requires institutional or personal access via ScienceDirect. Secondary coverage (Phys.org, ScienceAlert, etc.) provides the detailed public summaries above.

The linked page is the scientific paper itself (behind a ScienceDirect paywall/subscription):

Title: Do Himalayan-style mountains lie under the Antarctic ice: Implication for the Gondwana Supermountains, the rise of oxygen and the Cambrian explosion?

Journal: Earth and Planetary Science Letters (2026)

DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2026.120330

Authors: Bei Chen & Ian H. Campbell

Abstract

Analyses of detrital zircons from Antarctica show that its tectonics were dominated by Himalayan-style mountains, the roots of which now underlie the ice sheet. These mountains formed during the amalgamation of Gondwana and when the Antarctic data are added to the global river zircon database and appropriately weighted, it is apparent that the mountains, which formed by the amalgamation of Gondwana, were our planet’s dominant mountain-forming event. Nutrients shed during the erosion of the Gondwanan mountains fertilized the oceans, leading to a proliferation of primary production that formed the base of the animal food web. Burial of the abundant carbon produced by photosynthesis was responsible for a marked increase in atmospheric oxygen, which facilitated first the rise of animals and later the Cambrian explosion. Approximately 46% of the detrital zircons in the weighted global database, during the critical period from the base of the Cambrian to the end of the Cambrian explosion, and 55% of the high-pressure grains, were derived from Antarctica.