Day: February 13, 2024

The Deindustrialization of Europe in Five Charts

Industrial electricity use in the EU is collapsing. US policymakers “Have no excuse for not looking at Europe and learning.” Plus: screenings in Dallas, Tulsa, Fairfax, & Austin. Germany is once again, the “sick man of Europe.”

From Watts Up With That?

By Robert Bryce Substack

Robert Bryce

Industrial electricity use in the EU is collapsing. US policymakers “Have no excuse for not looking at Europe and learning.” Plus: screenings in Dallas, Tulsa, Fairfax, & Austin.

Port Talbot steelworks in Port Talbot, Britain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tata_Steel_Europe#/media/File:Port_talbot_large.jpg

The headline on a February 9 Bloomberg article concisely sums up Europe’s unfolding disaster: “Germany’s days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end.” The article says, “Manufacturing output in Europe’s biggest economy has been trending downward since 2017, and the decline is accelerating as competitiveness erodes.”

Germany is once again, the “sick man of Europe.”

But it’s not just Germany. All across Europe, industrial capacity is shrinking. Last month, Tata Steel announced it would close its last two blast furnaces in Britain by the end of this year, a move that will result “in the loss of up to 2,800 jobs at its Port Talbot steelworks in Wales.”

In January 2023, Slovalco announced it was permanently closing its aluminum smelters in Slovakia after 70 years of operation. The company, Slovakia’s biggest electricity consumer, said it was shuttering its smelters due to high power costs.

Europe drove itself into the ditch. Bad policy decisions, including net-zero delusions, the headlong rush to alt-energy, aggressive decarbonization mandates, and the strategic blunder of relying on Russian natural gas that’s no longer available, are driving the deindustrialization. How bad is it? Mario Loyola, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, wrote a sharp January 28 article in The Hill about Europe’s meltdown. According to European Commission data, industrial output in Europe “plummeted 5.8% in the 12 months ending November 2023,” he wrote. “Capital goods production was down nearly 8.7%. Investment in plants and equipment has plummeted.”

The result of all that lousy policy: staggering increases in electricity prices. Loyola notes that European electricity prices “have settled at triple their pre-pandemic levels.” Energy analyst Rupert Darwall recently reported that large businesses in Britain now pay up to five times more for juice than in 2004.

Electricity use is one of the most reliable barometers of economic vitality. Indeed, electricity is the world’s most important and fastest-growing form of energy. Economic growth drives electricity use and vice versa. Healthy economies need juice and lots of it. In ailing economies, electricity use declines. Last year, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency, global power demand grew by 2.2%. The Paris-based agency expects global electricity demand to rise by an average of 3.4% annually through 2026, and that “demand will be driven by an improving economic outlook, which will contribute to faster electricity growth both in advanced and emerging economies.”

China and India continue their torrid growth. The IEA estimates China’s electricity demand grew by a whopping 6.4% in 2023. The agency expects China’s power demand to increase by 1,400 terawatt-hours through 2026, an amount of energy that “is more than half of the EU current annual electricity consumption.” Power demand in India jumped by 7% in 2023, a slight decrease from the 8.6% growth in 2022. The IEA said, “Continued rapid economic expansion and robust demand for space cooling were the main pillars of growth” in India. And as I noted in these pages in December, the bulk of new power demand in China and India is being met by burning coal. (Power demand in the U.S. fell by 1.6% last year, a reduction the IEA blamed on milder weather, reduced manufacturing, and “strikes in the automotive industry and overall inflationary pressures.”)

The soaring growth in China and India provides a stark contrast to the situation in Europe, where electricity use declined by 3.2% last year. The IEA notes the drop in electricity use follows a 3.1% decline in 2022 and that power demand in the EU has “dropped to levels last seen two decades ago. As in 2022, weaker consumption in the industrial sector was the main factor that reduced electricity demand.” The plunge in the EU’s industrial electricity use is nothing short of stunning. In 2022, industrial power demand in the EU dropped by 5.8%. The IEA estimates it declined by another 6% in 2023.

The deindustrialization of Europe and the IEA report are top of mind this week as I prepare slides for my keynote speech at the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners meeting in Washington, D.C., on February 26. These five charts illustrate the deindustrialization of Europe and why it will likely continue.

Figure 1

According to the IEA, electricity demand in Germany “declined by a remarkable 4.8% in 2023…demand reduction is especially prominent in energy-intensive industry, which faced a decrease in production of 13% during the first six months of 2023.” That reduction in electricity use reflects the ongoing drop in Germany’s industrial output. This (somewhat fuzzy) chart uses a screen grab from the Bloomberg report mentioned at the top of this article.

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

These slides and the ongoing destruction of European heavy industry bring to mind the trenchant lines that John Constable of Britain’s Renewable Energy Foundation delivers in our new five-part docuseries, Juice: Power, Politics & The Grid.

Constable, who is also the energy editor at the Global Warming Policy Foundation, delivers a stark warning. In Episode 3, he says, “I tell decision-makers in the United States to study the European example very, very carefully. I mean, you have no excuse for not looking at Europe and learning. We’ve tested this for you.”

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Upcoming Screenings: Dallas, Tulsa, Gray Horse, Austin

We are taking Juice on the road. We have several screenings in the works. The screenings are free, but seating is limited. If you want to attend, please RSVP by sending a note to: hello.robertbryce (at) gmail.com. Let us know which screening you wish to attend.

  • This Tuesday, February 13, thanks to our friends at the Maguire Energy Institute, we will be screening two episodes at Southern Methodist University, Crum Auditorium, 6p.
  • February 15, thanks to our friend, Clark Wiens, we will be at the historic Circle Cinema in Tulsa, 6:30p.
  • February 16, thanks to Carol Conner, the indefatigable editor of the Fairfax Chief newspaper, we will be at the Gray Horse Community Center in Fairfax, 5:30p.
  • March 4, we will be at AFS Cinema in Austin, 6:30p.

I hope to see you. Again, please RSVP.

  1. Please click that ♡ button, share, and subscribe.
  2. Did I mention our new five-part docuseries, Juice: Power, Politics & The Grid? Please watch it and share it: JuiceTheSeries.com
  3. Thanks.

What Green Jobs?

Most political parties in the U.K. sell the new green revolution by pointing to all the new skilled jobs that will be created. The British Government looks to produce no fewer than two million such ‘green’ jobs by 2030. But there is little sign of all these new opportunities.

From The Daily Sceptic

By CHRIS MORRISON

Most political parties in the U.K. sell the new green revolution by pointing to all the new skilled jobs that will be created. The British Government looks to produce no fewer than two million such ‘green’ jobs by 2030. But there is little sign of all these new opportunities.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently reported that there were 526,000 green jobs in 2020, but they include workers in the waste business, electric vehicles, education and management of Government bodies.

Back in the day we would have called people working in such occupations dustmen, mechanics, teachers and bureaucrats. Most of the jobs being claimed simply stick a ’green’ label on either existing occupations, or are people switching, as in the transport business, to working on new products.

There are also a large number of ‘make work’ jobs listed in the ONS report including environmental charities, environment-related education, in-house environmental activities and environmental consultancy.

Speculative ventures that are unlikely to turn into significant future businesses such as hydrogen supply and carbon capture and storage are included.

About 10% of the green jobs are to be found in charities, while many other occupations in waste collection, water treatment, repairs and forest management have always existed. Work on making more energy efficient products is hardly a new activity.

It is probably not an exaggeration to state that the ‘great reset’ under way in the collectivist Net Zero project has barely created more than 150,000 genuine new jobs in the U.K. But the economic damage is mounting steadily. Across Europe, the high price of energy caused by a transition to unreliable wind is causing significant de-industrialisation, while the food production industry is facing potential collapse with a green war on fertiliser and meat production. Try telling 3,000 redundant steel workers in Port Talbot and the farmers who have been blocking roads across the continent that they are in the forefront of an exciting new green industrial revolution.

People are starting to twig. Gary Smith runs the GMB union which is heavily represented in manufacturing industries, and he recently noted the small number of jobs that are being produced by green technology. In an interview in the Spectator, he said that communities along the North Sea can see wind farms, “but they can’t point to the jobs”. He added that much of the green work seemed to be either London-based lobbying or clearing away the animal casualties of wind farm blades. “It’s usually a man in a rowing boat, sweeping up the dead birds,” he observed.

At least the ONS is trying to identify actual green jobs that have been created. Windy politicians can take more creative liberties – step forward London mayor Sadiq Khan, Chairman of the sinister green billionaire-funded C40 group of around 100 city mayors.

He told the UN Climate Ambition Summit last year that “new data” from C40 revealed that over 14 million green jobs have been created in 53 C40 cities alone. Of course there are those who understandably start counting the spoons whenever Khan starts talking about stats and data these days, so it is instructive to see what the Mayor’s own contribution in London is to this highly improbable jobs total.

In 2020, he launched London’s Green New Deal fund with £10 million to “support” around 1,000 green jobs. Other ambitions include tackling the ‘climate emergency’ and addressing inequalities. The cynical might observe that this is a drop in the bucket for an economic stimulus, let alone stopping the climate changing and providing woke solutions to the ever-expanding list of victim causes. If there are any new job details provided they tend to feature insulating homes, which in the case of London’s drafty Victorian housing stock is likely to need billions of pounds rather than Khan’s paltry figure.

More details of Khan’s supposed green jobs can be gained by examining the funding that he has given to a number of skills hubs to prepare London for the expected tsunami of green opportunities. The hub lead is the Capital City College Group covering 12 London boroughs, and it says it will “focus on green occupations in the construction sector including roles in waste and recycling management, off-site manufacturing and pre-fabrication, gas engineers and heating/plumbing technicians and electric vehicle charging point installations”.

None of these jobs are new except installing EV charging stations. This latter occupation is a displacement activity since a higher number of EVs on the road will lead to fewer jobs installing and maintaining petrol pumps and the delivery of fuel. Indeed it can be argued that much of the money collected for green activity is displacement since it removes genuine job-creating wealth from the private sector and pours it into vast subsidies and second-rate jobs in uneconomic, inferior technologies.

Back on Planet Reality, the threads are unravelling on the insane Net Zero project. Politicians, belatedly, are starting to realise that removing hydrocarbons from an advanced modern society will send humanity back to the caves, as explained by COP28 President Sultan Al-Jaber. Even the BBC has cottoned on with Laura Kuenssberg asking if, in the wake of the opposition Labour party ditching its £28 billion a year green commitment,  “the politics of climate change [are] going out of fashion”?

The journalist Ross Clark has written an excellent review of the obvious retreat from Net Zero for Net Zero Watch, noting that the project was always going to require a multitude of new technologies, “many of which have yet to be invented or scaled up to commercial operation”. Already, he notes, many of the potential solutions such as hydrogen heating have started to fall by the wayside before they have been established. Reliance is being placed on an ever-smaller pool of technologies, and many of these, too, are creaking under the weight of expectation, such as wind and solar energy, he writes.

Net Zero might be starting to fall, but it seems there are still plenty of ‘charity’ jobs in the green economy. Or more accurately, activist work in operations funded by elite green billionaires intent on promoting a wealth and job destroying supra-national reset of global civilisation.

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.

THEY FIREBOMBED MY OFFICE

I wasn’t entirely forthcoming in this post about why I haven’t written much the last few days. It is true that I have been in Washington, mostly to attend the Michael Mann v. Mark Steyn trial. I will write up my thoughts on the trial (or at least, those portions I have seen) when I have time.

From Watts Up With That?

By POWERLINE BLOG

JOHN HINDERAKER 

I wasn’t entirely forthcoming in this post about why I haven’t written much the last few days. It is true that I have been in Washington, mostly to attend the Michael Mann v. Mark Steyn trial. I will write up my thoughts on the trial (or at least, those portions I have seen) when I have time.

But something else has been distracting me: leftists firebombed my office last Saturday night. At around 2 am, they broke into the building that houses Center of the American Experiment and two other conservative organizations with which we often collaborate, along with many other businesses. The arsonists set two fires: one was in the first floor corridor between American Experiment’s office and the space we sublease to Take Charge, Kendall and Sheila Qualls’ organization. A second fire was set on the third floor, immediately outside or perhaps actually inside the office of the Upper Midwest Law Center, on whose board I serve. This photo shows what the corridor outside my office looks like:

I am working with the FBI to try to identify the perpetrators. As I told them, the list of potential suspects is long, as my organization is active, and unusually effective, across a broad range of issues. I will have more to say about this before long.

Addendum

Dealing with activist violence from green eco-doomers is always on an going concern, as we try and present a point of view that departs from the mainstream narrative, scientific consensus, or gospel of the climate cult as it were. Stalking, doxxing, and as the above post shows, actual violence are things for which we have to be vigilant. The post below from 14 years ago foreshadows the violence noted above.

Biden’s climate change reparations will bankrupt America

Perhaps nothing better illustrates the backwards nature of our time than the drive for reparations. This includes not only payment for race discrimination, but also for the impacts of climate change. In both cases, it’s the West’s middle and working classes who will foot the bill.

The reparations regime will only aid the wealthy and privileged, not those most in need

Perhaps nothing better illustrates the backwards nature of our time than the drive for reparations. This includes not only payment for race discrimination, but also for the impacts of climate change. In both cases, it’s the West’s middle and working classes who will foot the bill.

Historically, compensation went to those who directly suffered from gross injustice in their own lifetimes. Descendants of concentration camps, whether in the Holocaust or the less lethal, but also unjust imprisonment of Japanese Americans during World War Two are prime examples. Their children and grandchildren, however, generally do not make any claim. The Telegraph has the story.

California, unsurprisingly, leads in reparations mania. The state legislature is now considering a proposals from the Reparations Task Force for compensation of around $569 billion, with $223,200 per person – estimates of a national reparations bill could top $14 trillion. This despite the fact that about the only people who could claim the legacy of slavery in California are Native Americans, who should send the bill to Madrid rather than Sacramento.

The legislature is pushing a proposed bill to revive affirmative action – a longstanding policy based on the logic of reparations – which was resoundingly voted down in 2020 by allowing “exceptions” to the rule. Corporations, too, are being dragooned to make up for past sins through gender equality mandates. Venture capitalists under a new law signed by Newsom are expected to report the racial and gender breakdown of their funded companies as well as for the jobs created.

Unfortunately, what starts in California rarely stays there. The Biden Securities and Exchange Commission is considering ways to follow the state’s lead. A 490-page SEC rule proposed in 2022 compels federally-regulated public firms to disclose all GHG emissions from virtually any source, including obscure upstream suppliers, and  downstream customers. This is the most contested proposal in the commission’s history. Brookings, a powerful establishment thinktank, has also proposed climate reparations to American minorities, essentially doubling down on reparations.

These policies are also part of the European and UK climate change agenda. It’s a guaranteed jobs boom for climate  professionals that reporting firms must engage at the expense of other employees, service providers, and consumers. Corporate social responsibility reporting studies in countries as diverse as China, Denmark, Malaysia, and South Africa show that disclosure laws primarily boost demand for “assurance services” and  raise the cost of engaging high-quality auditors and consultants. 

Already accounting, climate-oriented software, environmental consulting and legal firms are flooding media outlets with disclosure law explainers, warnings about climate “disclosure gaps”, and have even commissioned disclosure cost surveys to prompt new reporting regulations by state and federal officials and induce business from covered firms. 

Read the full story here.

New Study Finds Global Cities Have Warmed Due To Rising Solar Surface Forcing Since 1986

The globe’s cities are warming primarily due to declining albedo, not CO2 radiative forcing.


From NoTricksZone

By Kenneth Richard on 12. February 2024

The globe’s cities are warming primarily due to declining albedo, not CO2 radiative forcing.

According to a comprehensive new study published in Remote Sensing of Environment, CO2 fertilization has led to an enhanced greening trend in 72.6% of cities across the world since 1985, accelerating to 89.2% since 2001.

Per the authors, this greening trend is the key factor lowering the albedo reflecting incoming solar radiation in urban areas, amounting to a +2.76 W/m² increase in solar radiation reaching the surface from 1986-2020.

In contrast, the clear-sky-only trend from CO2 surface forcing only amounts to 0.2 W/m² per decade (22 ppm), or 0.02 W/m² per year, in the 21st century. (This trend only represents the forcing from CO2 in an imaginary world where no clouds exist.)

Thus, the positive radiative imbalance from the declining trend in albedo explains urban warming far better than an enhanced greenhouse effect from a clear-sky-only CO2 radiative forcing.

Image Source: Wu et al., 2024
01-s2.0-S0034425724000142-mainHerunterladen

Strong El Nino Conditions Prevails at The End of January 2024

The classification of El Niño events, including the strength labels, is somewhat subjective and can vary among meteorological and climate agencies. There isn’t a strict rule defining the specific number of consecutive Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) values that must be 2.0°C or above to categorize an El Niño event as “Super Strong.”

From Watts Up With That?

Reposted from gujaraweather.com

Ashok Patel

Enso Status on 10th February 2024

Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary :

The classification of El Niño events, including the strength labels, is somewhat subjective and can vary among meteorological and climate agencies. There isn’t a strict rule defining the specific number of consecutive Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) values that must be 2.0°C or above to categorize an El Niño event as “Super Strong.”

In general, a strong El Niño event is often characterized by ONI values reaching or exceeding +2.0°C. A Super Strong El Niño would typically involve sustained ONI value of +2.0°C or more. Hence for ease of understanding and comparing the strength of various Strong El Nino events, I propose to define an El Nino as a Super Strong event if  three consecutive ONI index is +2.0°C or more.

A brief history of the past El Nino events with the number of consecutive ONI +2.0°C or above:

In the year 1965 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were SON +2.0°C, OND +2.0°C

In the year 1972-73 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were OND +2.1°C NDJ +2.1°C DJF

In the year 1982-83 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were SON +2.0°C, OND +2.2°C NDJ +2.2°C DJF +2.2°C

In the year 1997-98 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were ASO +2.1°C SON +2.3°C, OND +2.4°C NDJ +2.4°C DJF +2.2°C

In the year 2015-16 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were ASO +2.2°C SON +2.4°C, OND +2.6°C NDJ +2.6°C DJF +2.5°C JFM +2.1°C

ONI Data has been obtained from CPC – NWS – NOAA available here

There have been three Super Strong El Nino events from 1950 onwards till date. The first such event was 1982-83 Super Strong El Nino with 4 consecutive ONI +2.0°C or above with highest ONI of +2.2°C twice. The second Super Strong El Nino event was 1997-98 with five consecutive ONI +2.0°C or above with highest ONI of +2.4°C twice. The third Super Strong El Nino event was 2015-16 with six consecutive ONI +2.0°C or above with highest ONI of +2.6°C twice. The current forecast and analysis does not support the 2023-24 El Nino to become a Super Strong El Nino.

Indian Monsoon & Enso relationship for India:

Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA for the whole country. Monsoon Rainfall over India had been +94.4% of LPA at the end of 30th September 2023. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India and warrants research for concrete co-relations for each region of India if any. Performance of Southwest Monsoon 2023 over the entire Country was much better than expected.

How ONI is determined:

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5).

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA

Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows
El Nino Conditions Are Prevailing At The End Of January 2024

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from July 2021. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust
YRMONTemp. °C  Temp. °C ANOM   °C
2021726.927.29-0.39
2021826.3226.86-0.53
2021926.1626.72-0.55
20211025.7826.72-0.94
20211125.7626.7-0.94
20211225.5426.6-1.06
2022125.6126.55-0.95
2022225.8826.76-0.89
2022326.3327.29-0.97
2022426.7227.83-1.11
2022526.8327.94-1.11
2022626.9827.73-0.75
2022726.627.29-0.7
2022825.8826.86-0.97
2022925.6526.72-1.07
20221025.7326.72-0.99
20221125.826.7-0.9
20221225.7526.6-0.86
2023125.8426.55-0.71
2023226.326.76-0.46
2023327.1927.29-0.11
2023427.9627.830.14
2023528.427.940.46
2023628.5727.730.84
2023728.3127.291.02
2023828.2126.861.35
2023928.3226.721.6
20231028.4426.721.72
20231128.7226.72.02
20231228.6326.62.02
2024128.4226.551.87

Indications and analysis of various International Weather/Climate agencies monitoring ENSO conditions is depicted hereunder:

Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  Dated 4th February 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

El Niño conditions are observed.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Niño.

El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance).*

Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.

Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

30 Days average SOI was 3.96 at the end of January 2024 and was -3.97 on 8th February 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -4.64 on 8th February 2024. During January 2024 the SOI had become +3.96 and is -3.97 currently.

Southern Oscillation Index

As per BOM, Australia

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 31 January 2024 was 3.7 and was 0.7 on 4th February 2024 and is moving towards negative direction once again..
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

As per BOM – Australia 6th February 2024
El Niño has peaked and is declining

ENSO Outlook

Climate model outlooks suggest El Niño has peaked and is declining, indicating a return to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024. The ENSO Outlook will remain at El Niño status until this event decays, or signs of a possible La Niña appear.

WUWT Editors’ Note

On February 8th, NOAA issued a  La Niña Watch

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
8 February 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

Synopsis: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).

During January 2024, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. SST anomalies weakened slightly in the eastern and east-central Pacific, as indicated by the weekly Niño index values [Fig. 2]. However, changes were more pronounced below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Although above-average temperatures persisted in the upper 100 meters of the equatorial Pacific, below-average temperatures were widespread at greater depths [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific also weakened during January. Low-level winds were near average over the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection remained slightly enhanced near the Date Line and was close to average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña. Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance; [Fig. 7]).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 March 2024.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

How Fracking Helped the U.S. Become the World’s Top Oil Producer

Over the last decade, the United States has established itself as the world’s top producer of crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia.

From OilPrice.com

By ZeroHedge 

Over the last decade, the United States has established itself as the world’s top producer of crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist’s Omri Wallach, illustrates the rise of the U.S. as the biggest oil producer, based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

U.S. Takes Lead in 2018

Over the last three decades, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia have alternated as the top crude producers, but always by small margins.

During the 1990s, Saudi Arabia dominated crude production, taking advantage of its extensive oil reserves. The petroleum sector accounts for roughly 42% of the country’s GDP, 87% of its budget revenues, and 90% of export earnings.

However, during the 2000s, Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia in production during some years, following strategic investments in expanding its oil infrastructure. The majority of Russia’s oil goes to OECD Europe (60%), with around 20% going to China.

Crude Oil ProductionUnited StatesSaudi ArabiaRussia
199211.93%13.97%12.74%
199311.50%13.68%11.35%
199410.96%13.32%10.50%
199510.60%13.17%9.96%
199610.21%12.87%9.49%
19979.84%12.73%9.29%
19989.39%12.58%9.05%
19999.06%11.99%9.33%
20008.67%12.33%9.64%
20018.65%11.89%10.45%
20028.63%11.49%11.53%
20038.05%12.92%12.10%
20047.46%12.74%12.67%
20057.00%13.21%12.82%
20066.85%13.00%12.90%
20076.84%12.38%13.29%
20086.71%12.44%12.56%
20097.32%11.28%12.98%
20107.37%11.31%13.03%
20117.55%12.81%13.02%
20128.50%13.04%12.94%
20139.76%12.86%13.10%
2014
2015		11.18%
11.67%		12.60%
12.77%		12.86%
12.66%
201610.92%13.12%13.02%
201711.53%12.68%13.05%
201813.21%12.77%12.96%
201914.90%12.15%13.20%
202014.87%12.37%12.97%
202114.59%12.06%13.10%

2022
14.73%13.17%12.76%

Over the 2010s, the U.S. witnessed an increase in domestic production, much of it attributable to hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” in the shale formations ranging from Texas to North Dakota. It became the world’s largest oil producer in 2018, outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The U.S. accounted for 14.7% of crude oil production worldwide in 2022, compared to 13.1% for Saudi Arabia and 12.7% for Russia.

Despite leading petroleum production, the U.S. still trails seven countries in remaining proven reserves underground, with 55,251 million barrels.

Venezuela has the biggest reserves with 303,221 million barrels. Saudi Arabia, with 267,192 million barrels, occupies the second spot, while Russia is seventh with 80,000 million barrels.

February Arctic Ice Jumps Over 15 Wadhams a Month Early

The facts are, that the Arctic Sea ice extent measured by satellites since 1978 expresses annual
variations and it has declined considerably from 1997 to 2007.

From Science Matters

 By Ron Clutz

For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The average in the last 12 years occurs on day 62 at 15.07M before descending. Most years are able to clear 15M, but in the five previous years only 2014 and 2016 ice extents cleared the bar at 15M km2; the others came up short. Now on February 11, 2024 (day 42) Arctic ice extent has already leaped over that bar 20 days early.

The graph shows how rapidly the Arctic froze this year, reaching 14.4M km2 extent already on January 24.  Then the extent waffled around that level, until suddenly a Hockey Stick shape appeared when 600k km2 of ice was added in just the last four days. That is 400k km2 above average, and well above many other years, including 2006.  SII is also lagging at 400k km2 lower.

The table shows the distribution of ice compared to day 45 averages and other years on that day.

Region2024042Day 45 Ave.2024-Ave.20060452024-2006
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere150406291468783835279114419407621223
 (1) Beaufort_Sea1070983107031766710697111273
 (2) Chukchi_Sea9660069657612459660060
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea108713710871316108710335
 (4) Laptev_Sea897845897837889777371
 (5) Kara_Sea934647908486261619327261920
 (6) Barents_Sea66279358207880715530801131992
 (7) Greenland_Sea825638622774202864579677245961
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence13403701456370-1159991227497112873
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago85486085338314788527152145
 (10) Hudson_Bay1260903126057932512574333470
 (11) Central_Arctic3233243320807425168319898734255
 (12) Bering_Sea631508700745-69237889518-258010
 (13) Baltic_Sea13630890991453177990456404
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk1101713923694178019759197342516

The Pacific basins show a moderate deficit in Bering Sea offset by a large 178k km2 surplus in Okhotsk.  Baffin Bay is down 120k km2, offset by Greenland Sea over 200k km2 and Barents up 81k km2.

These results fly in the face of those claiming for years that Arctic ice is in a “death spiral.”  More sober and clear-eyed observers have called out the alarmists for their exaggerations.  A recent example comes from Allan Alsup Jensen at Nordic Institute of Product Sustainability, Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology, Denmark.  His December 2023 paper is Time Trend of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Since 2007 no significant decline has been observed

Abstract

The NSIDC website, IPCC’s reports and some scientific papers have announced that the Arctic
Sea ice extent, when it is lowest in September month, in recent years has declined dramatically,
and in few decades the sea ice is supposed to disappear completely in the summer. In that way
new and shorter ships routes will open up north of the continents.

The facts are, that the Arctic Sea ice extent measured by satellites since 1978 expresses annual
variations and it has declined considerably from 1997 to 2007. However, before that time period,
from 1978 to 1996, the downward trend was minimal, and in the last 17 years from 2007 to 2023
the downward trend has also been about zero. Therefore, there is no indication that we should
expect the Arctic Sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted, in one or two decades.

Regarding the extent of the summer (February) sea ice at the Antarctic, the downward trend during the years 1979-2021 was very small but in 2022 and 2023 a considerable decline was observed, and a decline was also clearly observed for the whole period of 2007- 2023. That was in contradiction to what happened in the Arctic. The pattern of the annual levels was not the same for the Arctic and Antarctic, indicating different drivers in the North and the South.

Figure 4: The minimum extent of the sea ice at Antarctic
in February month 1979-2023 (data from NSIDC.org)

These data show that there is no apparent correlation between the variable extent of the Arctic
and the Antarctic Sea ice and the gradually increasing CO2-concentrations in the atmosphere as
proposed by NSIDC, IPCC and others, also for these areas of cold climate.

Yes, Popular Mechanics, Scientists ‘Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline’

Extreme weather is not becoming more common or severe, and fewer people every year are dying due to temperature and weather-related causes. Those predicting disaster from 1.5℃ have been wrong for decades.

By Anthony Watts

An article published in Popular Mechanics magazine titled, “Oops, Scientists May Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline” with the subtitle “Clues have emerged that reveal a much hotter history than we thought” makes a refreshing admission that confirms what Climate Realism has pointed out since its inception – Earth has already surpassed the arbitrary 1.5°C limit imposed at the 2015 Paris Climate Accords.

It is important to note that the 1.5°C threshold is an arbitrary number, not one established or defined by science. It was defined by political negotiations in the Paris Accord agreement of 2015. An Associated Press article, The magic 1.5: What’s behind climate talks’ key elusive goal, admits this stating, “in a way both the ‘1.5 and 2 degree C thresholds are somewhat arbitrary,’ Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson said in an email. ‘Every tenth of a degree matters!’”

The Popular Mechanics article, by writer Darren Orf published on February 9th says this:

A new study from University Western Australia Oceans Institute studied long-lived Caribbean sclerosponges and created an ocean temperature timeline dating back to the 1700s.

. . .

By analyzing strontium to calcium ratios in these sponges, the team could effectively calculate water temperatures dating back to 1700.

The study concludes that the world started warming roughly 80 years before the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has maintained throughout its history, reports, and treaty negotiations, and that the Earth had likely already experienced more than 1.7 degrees Celsius by 2020.

While some scientists are questioning the validity of that data and conclusions of the article, since it goes against the dominant narrative, it does in mesh with the instrumental temperature record from Europe which ClimateRealism has written about extensively.

Climate at a Glance: Tipping Point – 1.5 Degrees Celsius Warming, succinctly sums up the issue, pointing out: climate alarmists (and the IPCC) say we need to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times to avoid disastrous consequences, but data show we have already exceeded such temperatures, with no confirmed ill effects.

As seen in Figure 1 below we’ve actually exceeded 2.0° C rise in temperature according to the European temperature data.

Figure 1. (click to enlarge) Berkeley Earth average European temperature showing a 2.0°C rise since about 1820. Source: http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/europe Annotated by Anthony Watts

The European temperature data show temperatures began rising about the year 1820. Note that this was 130 years before the large modern rise in carbon dioxide emissions began, that are claimed to to be driving dangerous warming.

Going hand in hand with the arbitrary 1.5°C temperature limit, climate alarmists warn we must take drastic steps within the next 10 years to keep warming to below or near 1.5°C above pre-industrial conditions. They claim that warming beyond that 1.5°C threshold will unleash a crisis of substantially worse extreme weather events and other climate harms. Yet the evidence suggests that we have already exceeded the much hyped 1.5℃ threshold, and data shows no disasters are arising.

Extreme weather is not becoming more common or severe, and fewer people every year are dying due to temperature and weather-related causes. Those predicting disaster from 1.5℃ have been wrong for decades. Climate Realism reported on the lack of “tipping point” occurrences in the article, Media Can’t Agree on the Number of Climate Tipping Points, Much less When, for example.

The bottom line is that climate science is very likely wrong on both the temperature record as well as the catastrophic predictions that are made from extrapolations into the future by climate models and other predictive methods. Kudos to Popular Mechanics for highlighting research which undermines this climate catastrophe narrative.

The post Yes, Popular Mechanics, Scientists ‘Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline’ appeared first on ClimateRealism.