Tag: Flooding

The Ghoulish Race to Turn Nepal’s Flood Victims Into a ‘Climate Crisis’ Talking Point

The political talking point ignores tens of millions of years of plate tectonics and its consequences and completely dismisses well-established mountain-weather dynamics.

Reports of the devastation in Nepal following a massive landslide now indicate that the death toll from Wednesday’s devastating flash floods in Nepal and China has risen to 800, with around 3,000 people still missing.

From Watts Up With That?

The political talking point ignores tens of millions of years of plate tectonics and its consequences and completely dismisses well-established mountain-weather dynamics.

From Legal Insurrection

Posted by Leslie Eastman

Reports of the devastation in Nepal following a massive landslide now indicate that the death toll from Wednesday’s devastating flash floods in Nepal and China has risen to 800, with around 3,000 people still missing.

Nepal’s disaster agency said Sunday the death toll had climbed to 788 with 2,502 missing, while Chinese authorities reported 16 deaths and 546 missing on the Chinese side of the border.

Poor weather and challenging terrain have hampered aerial rescue operations.

In Nuwakot, one of the Nepali districts devastated by the floods, helicopters resumed operations before noon Saturday after poor weather temporarily obstructed their activities. Some helicopters were loaded with boxes and bags of aid, including clothes, instant noodles, crackers and rice. Others returned from the flood-hit areas carrying survivors.

…More than 3,700 people have been rescued in Nepal so far, according to authorities there. Hundreds of the missing are foreigners who were in the area to work, trek or make a pilgrimage to a sacred peak on the Tibet side of the border.

Nepal’s deadly Himalayan flash flood this week has predictably produced a familiar ritual: before rescue crews had finished counting bodies, climate cultists and their political acolytes were already racing to slot the disaster into their favorite narrative. Outlets from the New York Times to CNN to Forbes rushed out pieces insisting that “climate change” primed the catastrophe.

Suddenly everyone became an expert on the Himalayan climate.

Three clear-eyed voices on X pushed back: Dr. Matthew Wielicki (Director – United States Global Change Research Program), meteorologist Chris Martz, and Jim Steele (ecologist and author of Landscapes & Cycles). They deserve amplification, not the usual media silence.

So, let’s take a deep dive into Himalayan geology and geography with them.

What actually happened in Nepal

The disaster began when an enormous chunk of a glacier on Langtang Lirung, high in the Himalayas, sheared off and slammed into the valley below with such force that it registered as a magnitude 5.2 seismic event, according to the US Geological Survey. The ice and rock mass blocked the Lhende Khola river, and when the makeshift dam gave way, it unleashed a wall of water, mud, and boulders the size of cars that buried villages downstream. Even the outlets pushing the climate narrative admit the actual trigger is still “under investigation” and that no formal attribution study has been done.

That inconvenient detail didn’t stop the parade of quotes about “what climate change looks like.” One geologist told CNN, “Whether this particular event can be tied to climate change or not, this is what we expect.” This is not science, but a talking point dressed up as science.

The mountains have been doing this for millions of years.

Meteorologist Chris Martz cut through the noise by noting that landslides and avalanches in Nepal have occurred for tens of millions of years, long before humans existed, let alone burned fossil fuels. As he noted, the V-shaped valleys carved through the region were carved by exactly these landslide-flood events at pre-industrial carbon dioxide levels, a geologic fact that climate cultists conveniently skip.

Geologist Dr. Matthew Wielicki, who has done fieldwork sitting above the Himalaya’s “enormous, deeply incised” river systems in Tibet, made the same point: This landscape is robustly geologically active on its own, independent of anything happening in the atmosphere.

Both men are pointing to something the peer-reviewed record supports. The Himalaya is a young, still-rising mountain range, formed by the Indian plate colliding with Eurasia roughly 40 to 65 million years ago, and it remains one of the most tectonically active zones on Earth.

Research into the region’s landslide history documents “giant rock slope failures” tied to the North Himalayan Fault system going back tens of thousands of years, driven by the constant interplay between tectonic and glacial activity… not modern emissions.

In fact, Wielicki wrote a paper noting that southern Tibet rapidly eroded and exposed rock from about 17–16 million to 12–11 million years ago, probably because tectonic uplift and steep rivers drove intense erosion. Around 10 million years ago, enhanced uplift in the Himalayas (likely driven by crustal thickening and fault-related rock stacking) shifted drainage divides southward and diverted rivers away from southern Tibet. This tectonic restructuring strengthened the Himalayan rain barrier, dried southern Tibet, reduced river power, and largely shut down erosion there even as the mountain belt continued to develop.

In other words, this event is an example of Earth-caused climate change.

Rain, snow, and mountains that manufacture their own weather.

Another detail missing from the climate-panic coverage is that the Himalaya doesn’t just sit there passively, waiting to be affected by global climate. The mountains are so large that they actively create their own extreme weather.

Keep in mind that the Great Himalaya’s average high crest is about 3.8 miles high, with the iconic Mount Everest reaching roughly 5.5 miles.

The sheer height of these peaks forces monsoon moisture upward, and the precipitation released drives erosion and landslides for eons. Add seasonal snowmelt and near-vertical topography, and you have a landscape engineered by nature to periodically fail catastrophically, regardless of the level of carbon dioxide and with or without an added tenth of a degree of global average temperature.

Geothermal heat melts ice from below.

Where there is a collision of 2 tectonic plates, there is a great deal of geothermal heat that arises FROM THE SURFACE, not THE ATMOSPHERE. SUVs are not responsible for this heat. Furthermore, glacial forces themselves can elevate temperature.

The following analysis is from Jim Steele:

However, on Langtang Lirung, at the 5200 meter elevation where the rock-ice block first separated to start the 2026 avalanche, the average summer temperature is still below freezing at -6°C to -8°C (21°F to 17°F). During the warmest summer period, mid-day averages reach 2°C to 6°C (36°F to 43°F) but night temperatures stay near -2°C to -5°C (28°F to 23°F). Furthermore, science suggests air temperatures are not affecting the surface ice.

The top few meters of a glacier, rapidly respond to air temperature, sunshine, and seasons. Nonetheless winter cold and summer warmth only penetrate about 10–20 m from the glaciers’ surface. Thus, changes in atmospheric temperature are unlikely to provide “lubricating” melt water in 200-meter thick glaciers. Below the shallow “seasonal layer,” temperature is steady and often close to the local mean annual air temperature, which again averages summer temperature below freezing at -6°C to -8°C (21°F to 17°F).

Still studies show the glacier-ground interface is almost always warmer than the ice above it for 3 main reasons: 1) Because ice is such a good insulator, the geothermal heat rising from Earth’s interior accumulates at the glacier’s bottom. 2) frictional heat from ice sliding over rock adds to the temperature. 3) Under thick ice, the melting point is lower due to pressure effects. So even if the surface is –30 °C or colder, the bed of a 2–3 km ice sheet can sit at or very near 0 °C. Global warming is not a factor.

Parting thoughts

The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the regional scientific body actually based in Kathmandu, remarked that it’s simply “too early to determine what role climate change played in this specific event”. That’s the honest scientific position.

Everything past that point is ghoulish narrative laundering that uses dead villagers as a backdrop for a political talking point and ignores tens of millions of years of plate tectonics and its consequences, and completely dismisses well-established mountain-weather dynamics.

False, Phys.org, West Africa’s Heavy Rains Aren’t Unusual or Due to Climate Change

A recent post at Phys.org, “Climate change makes extreme West Africa rainfall five times likelier, study finds,” relies on a weather attribution study to assert that recent heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding in West Africa was made more likely to occur in what the attribution group calls “a pre-industrial climate.” This is misleading.

From ClimateRealism

By Linnea Lueken

A recent post at Phys.org, “Climate change makes extreme West Africa rainfall five times likelier, study finds,” relies on a weather attribution study to assert that recent heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding in West Africa was made more likely to occur in what the attribution group calls “a pre-industrial climate.” This is misleading. History shows heavy rains and flooding are not uncommon across West Africa. The regional rainy seasons are driven by a combination of factors, including long-term ocean patterns and the West African monsoon.

Citing claims from World Weather Attribution (WWA), a climate activist group formed specifically to link climate change to weather events, Phys.org says that heavy rain was once considered rare and is getting worse. This is false. Seasonal heavy rain is a characteristic feature of the regional climate pattern. Although recent decades might be seeing a local (albeit sporadic) trend towards more heavy rains, it’s largely due to recovery from a larger multi-decadal climate pattern. In addition, even WWA’s authors admit that urbanization and land subsidence have a large impact on flooding that cannot be blamed on climate change alone. This means that human interventions can have a significant influence over any potential danger posed by weather, whether or not warming has anything to do with it.

The Phy.org post reports on May and June’s heavy rainfall in West African coastal countries, from the Ivory Coast to Nigeria, which led to deadly flooding and structural damage. Phy.org cites WWA, which wrote that “climate change driven by human greenhouse gas emissions had increased the likelihood of the rains that caused the floods while also boosting their intensity by between 4% and 23%.” WWA goes on to claim that the events were “once considered rare” but now are “expected every two or four years in the region.” It should be noted that 4 percent and 23 percent are very different, this is a massive range of uncertainty.

The study relies on the idea that warmer air holds more moisture, and thus leads to heavier rainfall. Although this is true in general, in isolation from local conditions, there are multiple problems with this simplistic model as it is presented in the mainstream media. The maximum amount of water vapor the air can hold does go up with warmer temperatures—under certain pressure conditions. Temperature highs do not correlate directly in all scenarios with precipitable water and humidity. For example, 100℉ temperatures in the high plains desert does not lead to heavier rainfall than 90℉ temperatures in Florida.

Topography also impacts rainfall: orographic lift describes when air is driven up the side of a mountain, on the windward side where the air is rising, moisture condenses and precipitates out. There will be heavier precipitation on the windward side, which in West Africa is on the side of the coastal villages.

June is the rainiest month for West African coastal cities by far. Lagos, Nigeria, for instance, has historically experienced a significant jump in rainfall average from May to June. (See chart below)

Figure 1: Chart from https://era-explorer.climate.copernicus.eu/?lat=6.39&lng=3.10&plot=0

In the North region of West Africa, countries like like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, experience a three-month rainy season annually, typically running from July through September. The coastal countries in Southern West Africa, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria, experience two rainy seasons, April through July and a shorter rainy season in September to October.

Across the region, these rainy seasons are driven by a long-term climate pattern called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which drives changes in sea surface temperatures over several decades, swinging from negative (dry) phases to positive (wet) phases. A 2025 study published in Springer’s Bulletin of the National Research Centre finds that the current trend towards more “extreme” rain has only been happening since the AMO entered a positive phase in the 1990s, but before that was suffering from very dry conditions caused by previous negative AMO:

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is one of the key drivers of long-term rainfall variability in West Africa.

Different studies have pointed out that rainfall variability in the tropics, including Nigeria, is an important factor due to complex interactions between global and regional climate drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (Ogunrinde et al. 2024; Okonkwo et al. 2015). South-Western Nigeria has transited from the negative AMO period of the 1980s and early 1990s with aridity to the favourable AMO period of the late 1990s to the current with more frequent extreme rain events (Zhang et al. 2021).

WWA’s study looks at the Gulf of Guinea region, which includes several countries, averaging out “extreme precipitation” over the entire area, which necessarily ignores regional and local differences. But, of course, a nuanced description of conditions on the ground undercuts the assertion that global warming alone has led to a widespread, general increase in precipitation. This is typical of the type of advocacy driven, rapidly produced work released by WWA, as Climate Realism has discussed in multiple posts before.

In fact, various studies come to different conclusions. Each study uses a different kind of statistical analysis, and it is notable that even within a single country the trend in extreme rainfall varies regionally.

WWA admits that the rainfall in Ghana was not unprecedented, with June rainfall being described as the “highest level since 1995.” What they also admit in the very first bullet point of their press release, an acknowledgement that Phys.org devotes only a part of a single sentence to, is that urbanization plays a big role in the dangerous flooding itself.

All Phys.org reports is that the researchers “said fast-growing coastal cities were particularly vulnerable because of rapid urbanization in flood-prone areas.” But WWA was more explicit, writing “rapid urbanisation and the expansion of formal and informal settlements into floodplains and conversion of natural vegetation to croplands have reduced natural drainage capacity and increased exposure to flooding.”

Deforestation both for agriculture and urban expansion is a big problem across West Africa. This contributes to flooding in two ways. First, forests slow the flow of precipitation allowing it to seep into the soil where it is used by the trees and underbrush. Second, denuded soil, when not simply washed away, becomes hardened and compacted in the heat, meaning when rain falls it runs swiftly into streams and rivers, increasing flooding.

Here, WWA accidentally highlights (and Phys.org buries) the main issue, the actual danger to human wellbeing in the region. As Climate Realism has pointed out previously (here, here, and here), flooding in urbanized parts of West Africa and other parts of Africa is largely due to poor urban planning, the infilling of wetlands, lack of water handling infrastructure, and often careless deforestation. Towns that are destroyed by floods are rebuilt without accounting for potential future weather disasters, even when an area is known to be in danger from heavy rainfall. Scientists and urban planners have pointed out that bad water handling infrastructure greatly exacerbates flooding from heavy rainfall, regardless of climate change.

The good news is, these are problems that can be fixed, unlike the weather itself.

Phys.org, among other media outlets, love latching on to the climate change related claims made by alarmist groups like WWA, while downplaying contributing or leading factors that can result in ordinary cyclical weather patterns hitting people and communities harder. It is lying by omission and needs to stop. Until reporting becomes more honest, perhaps audiences should stop listening.

Godzilla Weather, Widespread Devastation & Economic Disruption

Will somebody save us all from these clowns who call themselves “journalists”?

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian Magness

Will somebody save us all from these clowns who call themselves “journalists”?

Experts fear a ‘Godzilla’ El Niño will be strongest on record and cause widespread devastation.

The world could be on the brink of a “Godzilla-like” El Niño extreme weather pattern that could trigger economic and political disruption around the world.

El Niño, an oceanic heatwave that occurs two to three times each decade, is building in the Pacific around the equator, and is expected to peak in September, the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned.

The warm current will affect weather patterns and increase the risk of droughts in Australia, and southern parts of Asia and Africa. It will also increase the likelihood of violent storms and heavy rainfall in parts of the Americas.

While droughts and storms are bad enough, experts say this could be the strongest El Niño on record, with even more severe potential outcomes. These include flooding, landslides, wildfires, famine, conflict and migration.

The expected severity has led to some meteorologists using the term Godzilla El Niño – after the colossal dinosaur-like creature that has featured in dozens of monster films.

El Niño has been causing weather-related disasters for centuries. It is thought to have contributed to the collapse of Peru’s ancient Moche civilisation in the eighth century, for example.

So, at a time when global supply chains and geopolitics are especially fragile, what could a Godzilla El Niño mean for the world? Here are three potential effects.

Read the full fairy tale here.

The report goes on to claim that food supply will be disrupted, migration will increase and and there will be “conflict zone flare-ups”.

All this from a weather phenomenon that comes around every four or five years – something humanity has managed to survive for millennia! Indeed, when you add in La Ninas, which also impact the weather, most years are “abnormal”!

El Ninos create a problem for the alarmist media. As global temperatures can rise by as much as a full degree in the space of a couple of years, as the climate swings from La Nina to El Nino, without any noticeable detriment to human life, why on earth should we be worried about much smaller rises in temperature spread over many decades?

Hence the attempts to frighten us with childish descriptions of Godzilla weather patterns triggering economic and political disruption around the world.

In reality, the changes to weather patterns brought about by El Nino have nothing at all to do with higher temperatures. They are the result of the change in atmospheric weather patterns.

The Met Office have this useful video, showing exactly what El Nino is:

Because of the changes in Pacific trade winds, as shown above, precipitation patterns around the world are also affected:

To label weather as “good” or “bad” is an oversimplification. The BBC, for instance, talk about floods in some regions, but heavier rain is more often than beneficial for agriculture.

But these effects tend to be much smaller than they would like us to believe. They are usually much more subtle. Take the Indian monsoon, for example:

Monsoon On Line

Yes, El Ninos tend to lead to droughts, but not always so. Droughts often occur in other years as well. But more significantly El Nino-linked droughts have not become more severe over time, which the silly Telegraph article implies. Indian rainfall patterns respond to atmospheric changes, not global temperatures.

Finally, just to deal with the food supply crisis, we are supposed to expect, the chart of cereal production proves that recent El Ninos have had zero effect on output:

FAOSTAT

I cant leave this without mentioning that the young reporter who wrote this twaddle is the Telegraph’s “Global Health Security Reporter”:

The Telegraph’s Global Health Security coverage is partly funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Climate Fact-Check February 2026

Editor’s note: This compilation serves as a fact check on the top false claims made about climate change by the media in February, 2026.

Climate Change Is NOT Worsening Wildlife Viruses – NOT Harming Coffee Production – ‘Global Warming’ NOT Causing More Snow – Sea Level Rise NOT a looming catastrophe

From ClimateRealism

Guest Post by: The Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, The Heartland Institute, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Energy & Environmental Legal Institute, and the International Climate Science Coalition, and Truth in Energy and Climate.

Editor’s note: This compilation serves as a fact check on the top false claims made about climate change by the media in February, 2026. 

Climate Change Is NOT Worsening Wildlife Viruses – NOT Harming Coffee Production – ‘Global Warming’ NOT Causing More Snow – Sea Level Rise NOT a looming catastrophe

Links: Inside Climate News article, The World Organization for Animal Health, ranavirus info.
Links: WCNC Charlotte article, Climate Central study, UN FAO data.
Links: AP story, NOAA station data, NOAA HURDAT2 data, stream gauge data.
Links: Climate Power post.
Links: Oceanographic Magazine article, NOAA Honolulu tide gauge record.
Links: Paper from Journal of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, UPenn press release, ERA5 dataset, 1940 data, data quality uncertainty, independent studies, ERA5 wind speed underestimation issues.

Until next month, enjoy these and other great climate fact checks at:

ClimateRealism.com
• Sorry, The Guardian and Other Media Outlets, Climate Change Isn’t Causing Unusual Storms in Europe
• Climate Change is Not Going to Cost Colorado Billions, Colorado Sun
• Wrong, The Week, Climate Change Didn’t Shrink U.S. Paychecks

ClimateDepot.com
• Yale University publishes warning: ‘The World Is Hitting Point of No Return on Climate’ – ‘World is on course to trigger tipping points that would lead to cascading consequences’
• The Nation Mag: ‘The Iran War Is Also a Climate War’ – ‘Climate change is…structurally embedded in modern warfare’ – ‘The outbreak of any war is bad news for the climate’
• Wash Post: ‘Trump repeals U.S. government’s power to regulate climate’

Wattsupwiththat.com
• RealClear Politics Is Right: The Climate Hoax Is a Massive Financial Scam
• Surprising Discovery: Sahara Is Greening…Billions of Trees Where Once Thought To Be Barren
• Clearing up some misconceptions about the DoE report

Guardian: Floodplain Homes Next to River in Rainy Welsh Valley Abandoned “Due to Climate Change”

Sixteen small, terraced houses sitting on a floodplain next to fast-flowing water in one of the rainiest parts of Britain are to be bought and demolished because the cost of protecting them from regular flooding far outweighs the value of the properties. A few years ago, this item would not warrant national attention. But in an era where mass climate panic is stoked by mainstream media, the story is too good to pass.

People crossing a street in the rain, wearing coats and holding items, with a red car visible in the background.

From The Daily Sceptic

By Chris Morrison

Aerial view of a curved residential street lined with houses, alongside a narrow river and surrounded by trees.

Sixteen small, terraced houses sitting on a floodplain next to fast-flowing water in one of the rainiest parts of Britain are to be bought and demolished because the cost of protecting them from regular flooding far outweighs the value of the properties. A few years ago, this item would not warrant national attention. But in an era where mass climate panic is stoked by mainstream media, the story is too good to pass. According to the desperate Guardian, residents can no longer be protected from flooding “caused by the climate crisis”. The local council chips in with the claim that it is believed to be the first time a local authority has bought a large number of houses due to flooding caused by the “climate emergency”.

The row of houses is in the Welsh Clydach Valley in the former mining village of Ynysybwl (pronounced ‘an-is-abull’). The houses are to be bought for around £2.5 million in total since this a much cheaper option than the £9 million needed to raise a defensive wall in the area known as Nant Clydach. The Guardian reports “relief and delight” among the residents at the buyout scheme – hardly surprising since they are sitting on a well-documented floodplain subject to considerable natural inundation.

Two recent storms have caused bad flooding, but records from Natural Resources Wales indicate periodic inundation in the “very constrained section of the valley” stretching back to 1955.

Rainfall appears to have increased across Wales in recent years, but the amounts involved are unlikely to be noticed by the already sodden Welsh.

Line graph depicting annual rainfall amounts in Wales from 1840 to 2020. The y-axis shows rainfall in millimeters, while the x-axis represents the years. The graph includes markers indicating the highest, lowest, and average rainfall trends with colored lines.

As the graph above shows, rainfall is cyclical in the country, but any gently rising trend started before the Guardian went into full bedwetting mode about the climate and the need for the Net Zero fantasy. Individual years of extra heavy rainfall can be seen throughout the record. Periods of substantial rainfall downturn, such as that seen during Victorian times, can be attributed to natural variation, but these days that explanation is ignored when rainfall is making small gains and political needs are paramount. It need hardly be pointed out that there is not a scintilla of solid proof that humans using hydrocarbons are primarily responsible for small cyclical changes in rainfall in one small, rain-prone, coastal country in the northern hemisphere.

It’s winter in the UK so the climate botherers are giving ‘heat’ a rest and turning their attention to pluvial pickings. In its story on the Ynysybwl homes, the Guardian also noted that western Britain has recently been battered by repeated pulses of heavy rain and strong winds. It is claimed that this has led some politicians and “experts” to warn that more homes “will have to be abandoned because of the climate breakdown”.

Left-wing author and former editor of the Observer Will Hutton had this take on a rainy start to 2026.

A tweet by Will Hutton discussing the British weather, expressing concerns about continuous rain and media's disinterest in climate discourse.

It doesn’t get dumber than this. A rainy month turned into a Right-wing media conspiracy and the obvious suggestion that we should ban hydrocarbons. To stop Will getting wet, society needs to divest itself of hydrocarbon use with all the devastating consequences from inevitable societal and economic collapse. Crop yields will halve without hydrocarbon-produced fertilisers and hunger will stalk the land – and all because Will can’t adapt to the seasonal British weather and provide himself with decent walking shoes and a good umbrella.

Around four decades of relentless invented climate catastrophising and the demonising of trace atmospheric gases have pushed many countries to the brink of a Net Zero calamity. Many of the scares have been effectively debunked – coral growth at recent record levels on the Great Barrier Reef, Arctic sea ice extent paused for 20 years and, recently, growing numbers of polar bears getting fatter on Svalbard – but the search for misinformation and lies about the complexities of climate and the atmosphere continues. Almost all of this is orchestrated by political forces seeking to capture the commanding heights of the economy by controlling the vital resource of hydrocarbons. Needless to say, Left-wing media such as the Guardian and the BBC are at the forefront of producing agitprop that is promoted as science and climate reporting.

Demonising bad weather without any reference to past data trends is incoherent stupidity on stilts. Flood risk is right up there in the Jim Dale word-salad playbook. Given how much rain also falls in neighbouring England, the common practice of building on floodplains and the declining state of protection measures (often driven by environmental lobbying), it is surprising how few properties are flooded each year.

Bar chart showing the number of properties flooded in England from April 1998 to March 2024, highlighting a significant spike in 2007.

There are over 26 million dwellings in the country, but according to the Environment Agency, only 5,000 properties have been flooded on average every year since the turn of the century. Over this period, no trend out of the ordinary can be discerned.

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor. Follow him on X.

No, Al-Jazeera, Climate Change Hasn’t Altered African Flood and Drought Patterns

Al Jazeera (AJ) recently published an article titled “Drought in the east, floods in the south: Africa battered by climate change” by Haru Mutasa, in which the reporter details recent experiences of drought in East Africa and flooding in southern Africa, asserting that those weather events are proof that climate change is battering the continent. This is false. The article relies on flimsy content such as personal observation, interviews, and evocative imagery to imply causation, ignoring data and trends that show no appreciable changes in flood or drought patterns over time.

Physical map of Africa showing topography, rivers, and geographical features.

From The Climate Realism

By Anthony Watts

Headline from Al Jazeera discussing climate change effects in Africa, featuring an aerial view of flooded neighborhoods.

Al Jazeera (AJ) recently published an article titled “Drought in the east, floods in the south: Africa battered by climate change” by Haru Mutasa, in which the reporter details recent experiences of drought in East Africa and flooding in southern Africa, asserting that those weather events are proof that climate change is battering the continent. This is false. The article relies on flimsy content such as personal observation, interviews, and evocative imagery to imply causation, ignoring data and trends that show no appreciable changes in flood or drought patterns over time.

Mutasa asserts that “rising seas and intensifying storms” and shifting rainfall patterns are already devastating livelihoods, citing the author’s personal field observations as evidence of a broader climate crisis. Readers are shown photos of dry riverbeds, dead livestock, submerged neighborhoods, and distressed residents, then invited to connect these scenes directly to global warming. The emotional impact is real, but emotion is not evidence.

Let us start with AJ’s most basic error: weather is not climate. Climate is defined by long-term patterns measured over decades, typically 30 years or more. A drought in one region followed by floods in another over a few weeks or months says nothing about a durable climate trend. Africa’s climate has always been highly variable, with sharp swings driven by ocean–atmosphere cycles such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Short-term extremes—sometimes back-to-back—are a known feature of the region, not a recently discovered diagnostical proof of climate change.

The historical record bears this out. Southern and eastern Africa experienced severe droughts and catastrophic floods long before modern greenhouse gas emissions rose. Mozambique’s Limpopo River basin, featured prominently in the article’s flood imagery. The area has a long history of major inundations, including the devastating 2000 Mozambique floods, which displaced hundreds of thousands and occurred during a strong El Niño year. East Africa’s Horn has likewise seen repeated, multi-year droughts throughout the twentieth century, interspersed with episodes of extreme rainfall. These precedents matter because they show that today’s events are consistent with a long pattern of variability rather than proving a novel climate regime.

In fact, science has shown a 50-year seasonal variability across centuries in East African droughts and floods recorded in lake sediments.

When measured data are consulted instead of anecdotes, the alarm bells fade. Climate at a Glance summarizes the global evidence in “Floods” and “Drought,” explaining that there is low confidence in any increasing trend of global flood frequency or magnitude and that drought trends are regionally mixed, not universally worsening. These conclusions align with the cautious language used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which emphasizes uncertainty and regional variability rather than blanket claims of intensification.

The AJ article substitutes interviews for analysis. Quoting local residents and aid workers about hardship may document suffering, but it does not diagnose cause. Infrastructure deficits, land-use changes, deforestation, river management, dam releases upstream, population growth in floodplains, and limited early-warning systems all play decisive roles in disaster outcomes across Africa. Climate Realism has repeatedly shown how media coverage overlooks these factors while attributing complex events to climate change by default, as catalogued in its Africa-related reporting and extreme-weather analyses accessible via Climate Realism’s search on floods and droughtsand Climate Realism’s coverage of drought claims.

Even within the article’s narrative, local management issues loom large. Mutasa notes dam releases in South Africa’s Mpumalanga province sent additional water downstream into Mozambique—an operational decision with immediate hydrological consequences that has nothing to do with global temperature or climate change. Treating such factors as footnotes while elevating climate change as the primary driver of flooding misinforms readers about where real risk reduction lies.

Serious climate reporting distinguishes between events and trends, and between personal experiences and measured evidence.

By presenting interviews and moment-in-time scenes as confirmation of a continent-wide climate verdict, Al Jazeera is misleading its audience by making a causal connection where data show none. Africa’s vulnerability to climate and weather extremes is real, but the causes are multifaceted and long-standing. Ignoring historical precedents and measured trends in favor of an alarming narrative certainty does not inform the public; it misleads it with false headlines.

Political map of Africa showing countries, major cities, and geographical features.

The climate scaremongers: Flooding is par for the course in Monmouth

MONMOUTH suffered some bad flooding last weekend as Storm Claudia passed through. Elsewhere only minor flooding seems to have occurred.

Aerial view of Monmouth showing flooded fields and residential areas after a storm, with the confluence of rivers visible in the landscape.

From The Conservative Woman

By Paul Homewood

MONMOUTH suffered some bad flooding last weekend as Storm Claudia passed through. Elsewhere only minor flooding seems to have occurred.

Rainfall storm totals over a day and a half were no higher than about 70mm in the region, which is not unusually high. Across the whole region of SW England and South Wales, where heavy rain was widespread, Met Office data shows 22mm for Friday, the day of the storm. But as the figures below show, days with 20mm or more happen regularly, about four times a year on average. It is abundantly clear that this sort of extreme rainfall is not on the increase, despite regular claims to the contrary.

Graph showing daily rainfall greater than 20mm in SW England and South Wales from 1931 to November 2025, with data points represented by blue dots and an arrow indicating Storm Claudia.

One storm which particularly stands out took place in November 1931 when more than 50mm fell across the region. The Met Office Monthly Report at the time revealed just how serious the flooding was, not just in one locality but across much of the west of the country, including Cumbria:

An old weather report detailing heavy rainfall and flooding in various regions of England during November 1931, highlighting specific rainfall amounts at different locations.

Totals of 244mm at Trecastle make Claudia appear just another run-of-the-mill storm, which of course it was.

Rainfall was almost as bad in December 1960:

Historical weather report detailing the weather conditions in December 1960, including heavy rains and flooding in South Wales and southern England.

Seven inches is 178mm and 5.5 inches in the Rhondda in just 20 hours works out at 140mm.

Floods were widespread and serious in Glamorgan.

So why was flooding so bad in Monmouth this week in spite of much lower rainfall?

Grok has the answer:

***

History of Flooding in Monmouth, Wales

Monmouth, located at the confluence of the Rivers Wye, Monnow, and Trothy in Monmouthshire, Wales, has a long history of flooding dating back centuries. The town’s position in a river valley makes it particularly vulnerable to riverine flooding from heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and storms, often exacerbated by rapid snowmelt or overflow from tributaries like the Norton Brook. Historical records show events ranging from flash floods causing localised damage to widespread inundations affecting homes, businesses, and infrastructure. Below is a chronological summary of key flooding incidents in Monmouth before 2025, drawn from official reports and historical archives. This focuses on major events impacting the town itself, though Monmouthshire-wide context is noted where relevant.

9 June 1754

Severe hailstorm with stones up to six inches in diameter caused the River Monnow to overflow rapidly within an hour, depositing fish on streets. Damage to crops, windows, and homes in Monmouth and nearby Colford; widespread property destruction.

21 November 1766

Violent thunderstorm led to the River Wye rising several feet higher than previously recorded near Monmouth. Loss of lives and large quantities of goods; meadows and low-lying areas submerged.

20 June 1839


Intense thunderstorm caused the Rivers Wye and Monnow to overflow. Premises near Wye Bridge inundated; Monnow Street flooded to several feet deep.

2 April 1848

Prolonged thunderstorm with heavy hail and rain (over one hour 20 minutes) overwhelmed drainage. Many houses in central Monmouth flooded; streets turned into torrents.

31 May 1859

Heavy rains swelled the River Trothy, leading to overflow into Monmouth meadows. Walls washed away in nearby Skenfrith; houses drenched and stones carried downstream in Rockfield.

22 July 1907

Thunderstorm with marble-sized hail turned streets into rushing rivers. Significant flash flooding in town center; damage to gardens and minor structures (also severe in nearby Cwmyoy on River Monnow).

10 June 1912

Lightning storm during heavy rain implied widespread waterlogging. One man killed by lightning; roads and low areas flooded.

27 May 1931

Rapid rise of the River Monnow due to thunderstorms across Monmouthshire.
Floodwaters reached bedrooms in houses; Drybridge Street submerged to several feet (boats used for rescues); cattle and sheep washed away in The Forge district; worst flood in living memory at nearby Skenfrith; racecourse and military huts affected.

April 1947

Nationwide flooding event triggered by heavy snowfall followed by rapid thaw; Rivers Trothy and Monnow overflowed into Monmouth. Severe inundation in Drybridge Street (water to upper bedrooms, evacuations); widespread damage across town and upstream villages.

December 1979

Rivers Wye, Monnow, and Usk burst banks after prolonged heavy rain. Significant property flooding in lower Monmouth and Mayhill areas; multiple locations affected along riverbanks.

October 1998

Storm-driven rise in River Wye levels. Peak level of 17.19m AOD; homes and roads in low-lying areas flooded.

October 2000

Autumn storms caused River Wye overflow. Peak level of 17.59m AOD; internal flooding in several properties.

December 2000

Two separate events from winter storms. River Wye peaks at 17.58m and 17.61m AOD; over 50 residential properties reported flooded in Monmouth (including Blake Street and Wyesham).

February 2002

Multiple storms led to two floods.River Wye peaks at 17.59m and 17.6 m AOD (latter was previous record); extensive evacuations and damage in Mayhill and town centre.

July 2005

Summer deluge overwhelmed rivers. River Wye at 16.37 m AOD; localised flooding in meadows and streets.

January 2008
Winter storms caused moderate overflow. River Wye at 16.42 m AOD; some properties affected in lower town.

***

As Grok points out, Monmouth has always been particularly vulnerable to flooding because it sits at the confluence of three rivers, the Wye, Monnow and Trothy. Its history is littered with floods every bit as bad as this week’s.

It might seem a daft place to build a town, but the Normans built the castle and town specifically because of those three rivers as the site allowed them to exert control over the river crossings. Since then Monmouth has continued to thrive because of its communication links.

Unsurprisingly the media tried to turn the storm into some sort of climate change-fuelled monster storm, with headlines of ‘a month’s worth of rainfall’. As we have seen though, such events are commonplace and have always occurred.

None of them bothered to actually check the facts and present the true story.

Paul Homewood

Paul Homewood is a former accountant who blogs about climate change at Not a Lot of People Know That

The Transylvanian Climate Story

500-year-old Transylvanian diaries show how the Little Ice Age completely changed life and death in the region

Four cloaked figures stand by a fire in a snowy landscape, with a castle in the background under a gray sky.

From Watts Up With That?

By Anthony Watts

A group of individuals gathered around a campfire in a snowy village setting, with rustic stone houses and bare trees in the background.

500-year-old Transylvanian diaries show how the Little Ice Age completely changed life and death in the region

Tapping into ‘society’s archive’, researchers have examined written sources from the 16th century that chronicle famine, excessive flooding, and plagues in what today is Romania

From Frontiers in Science and the University of Oradea:

Glaciers, sediments, and pollen can be used to reconstruct the climate of the past. Beyond ‘nature’s archive,’, other sources, such as diaries, travel notes, parish or monastery registers, and other written documents – known at the ‘society’s archive’ – contain reports and observations about local climates in bygone centuries.

In contrast, the second half of the century was characterized by heavy rainfall and floods, particularly in the 1590s.

The western parts of the European continent cooled significantly when in the 16th century a period known as the ‘Little Ice Age’ intensified. During the second half of the century, temperatures dropped by 0.5°C. In Transylvania, however, hot weather was recorded much more frequently than cold weather during the 16th century. “This makes us believe that the Little Ice Age could have manifested itself later in this part of Europe,” said Caciora. Later writings, in which more cold waves and severe winters are mentioned, support this thesis.

Delayed ice age

The sources tell of a particularly hot and dry first half of the century. “One compelling passage comes from a historical document describing the summer of 1540. ‘The springs dried up, and the rivers dwindled to mere trickles. Livestock fell in the fields, and the air was thick with despair as the people gathered in processions, praying for rain,’” said Caciora. “This vivid account underscores the emotional and spiritual dimensions of living through climatic extremes.”

In contrast, the second half of the century was characterized by heavy rainfall and floods, particularly in the 1590s. Compared to the western parts of the European continent, which cooled significantly when in the 16th century a period known as the ‘Little Ice Age’, intensified. During the second half of the century, temperatures dropped by 0.5°C.

In Transylvania, however, hot weather was recorded much more frequently than cold weather during the 16th century. “This makes us believe that the Little Ice Age could have manifested itself later in this part of Europe,” said Caciora. Later writings, in which more cold waves and severe winters are mentioned, support this thesis.

Climate catastrophes

Such weather variations often resulted in catastrophes, related directly or indirectly to the climate. These included 30 years during which the Black Death ravaged the land, 23 years or famine, and nine years during which locust invasions were recorded.

However tragic, weather extremes and resulting calamities could have driven changes in settlement patterns, the researchers said. “Towns might have adopted flood-resistant infrastructure or migrated to more favorable areas. The challenges might also have spurred technological innovations, such as improved irrigation systems or storage facilities,” Caciora explained.

The human element

“Chronicles and diaries reveal how people perceived, responded to, and were impacted by these events,” Caciora continued.

An old book page with text in Hungarian, titled 'Cancionale, az Historiás Ene kes könyv,' dated 1574, featuring intricate printed letters and decorative elements.
The ‘society’s archive’ – contain reports and observations about local climates in bygone centuries. Credit: Gaceu et al., 2024.

Despite the insights it provides, the study faces several limitations, the researchers pointed out. Few people were literate, reports are often subjective, or only true on local scales. In addition, the records are fragmented. For example, the researchers were not able to include any records about 15 years of the 16th century, either because no records existed, or they were too contradictory for inclusion.  

Nevertheless, these writings not only provide a glimpse into how people in the past might have lived, but are also relevant for modern climate resilience strategies, particularly in understanding the socio-economic consequences of extreme weather events and their role in shaping human history. “Studying climate records from the society’s archive is as crucial as analyzing natural proxies,” Caciora explained. “It provides a human-centric perspective on past climatic events.”

Journal

Frontiers in Climate DOI 10.3389/fclim.2024.1507143 

Attribution Studies Don’t Prove Anything About South Africa’s Floods, Phys.org

A recent post at Phys.org claims that a recent attribution study shows that climate change made April 2022’s flooding in South Africa, “significantly” worse. This is an unfalsifiable (not able to be proven or disproven experimentally or observationally) claim that ignores the complexities of weather and relies on distinctly unreliable computer modelling.

A flooded street in an urban area where people wade through muddy water, carrying bags and belongings amidst debris and garbage.

From ClimateRealism

By Linnea Lueken

A sign for pedestrians and cyclists partially submerged in floodwaters.

A recent post at Phys.org claims that a recent attribution study shows that climate change made April 2022’s flooding in South Africa, “significantly” worse. This is an unfalsifiable (not able to be proven or disproven experimentally or observationally) claim that ignores the complexities of weather and relies on distinctly unreliable computer modelling.

The article, titled “Climate change significantly worsened deadly 2022 Durban floods, study shows,” goes over an attribution study that focused on flooding in Durban, South Africa, three years ago. Phys.org claims the study “shows that rainfall during the storm of 11–12 April 2022 was between 40 percent and 107 percent heavier than it would have been in a cooler, pre-industrial climate.”

How do they know this? They don’t, rather they claim it based on computer model outputs.

Unlike most coverage of attribution science, Phys.org vaguely hints at the fact that the modelling is less than bulletproof, explaining that the models “simulated the storm in both today’s warmed climate and a counterfactual world without human-induced global warming.”

Climate Realism has explained at length why attribution modelling is not evidence, but it may be helpful to point out that Phys.org is only half right here. It is true that they used a counterfactual world with no warming, but the warmed model is also counterfactual. A number of assumptions, some more robustly backed by available data and evidence than others, go into modelling the “current world.” Statistician Dr. William Briggs has what I consider the best simple summary of how attribution modelling works:

A model of the climate as it does not exist, but which is claimed to represent what the climate would look like had mankind not ‘interfered’ with it, is run many times. The outputs from these runs is examined for some ‘bad’ or ‘extreme’ event, such as higher temperatures or increased numbers of hurricanes making landfall, or rainfall exceeding some amount. The frequency with which these bad events occur in the model is noted. Next, a model of the climate as it is said to now exist is run many times. This model represents global warming. The frequencies from the same bad events in the model are again noted. The frequencies between the models are then compared. If the model of the current climate has a greater frequency of the bad event than the imaginary (called ‘counterfactual’) climate, the event is said to be caused by global warming, in whole or in part.

Both the “counterfactual” and the “current conditions” models can be massaged and changed to obtain nearly any result desired. It all depends on what assumptions are programmed in. There is no guarantee that the “real world” model is actually accurate. In fact, there is good reason to believe the Earth’s climate and weather systems cannot be modelled accurately to the degree attribution scientists claim because of the interconnectedness and chaotic nature of the different systems. In fact Chaos Theory itself sprung up from the findings of an individual attempting to generate computer models for weather.

Rainfall, for example, and flooding, are not as connected as climate scientists often claim. Even the IPCC, while noting that precipitation has generally increased in some parts of the world, acknowledges that flooding is not directly correlated to rainfall trends. In this case, human intervention on the natural world has a larger influence than rainfall alone. The construction of non-permeable surfaces like roads and foundations for buildings, for example, can exacerbate flooding even in places where rainfall trends have not changed. This is particularly true for places that have seen significant population growth and development.

This is certainly the case for Durban, South Africa, which has seen a 24% spike in population over just the last decade, adding nearly a million people since 2011.

Durban also has a long history of flooding. A study from the University of Witwatersrand notes that a “ . . . reconstructed the history of floods in KZN since the 1840s . . . a flooding event in September 1987 affected a larger geographic area of KZN and destroyed more homes than the 2022 event . . . [s]imilarly, a catastrophic flooding event in Durban, 1856 – also in April – produced a greater quantity of rainfall over a three-day period than last year’s floods.”

The 2022 flood was so catastrophic because more people and larger amounts of poorly designed homes and infrastructure were located in the area historically prone to flooding – the rainfall itself was not as severe as in the past. It’s likely that if attribution models had been around in the aftermath of the 1856 event, they would have attributed the flooding to climate change as a result of the assumptions built into the models and the way they are “tuned.”

Ironically, the Phys.org post bemoans the lack of immediate attribution, which they claim would somehow help save lives, However, at the time of the 2022 flooding, World Weather Attribution did respond and attribute the floods to climate change, as my colleague H. Sterling Burnett covered at the time. They were, of course, also incorrect. Burnett showed that Durban was already prone to historic flooding, which only would get worse with urbanization and insufficient water handling infrastructure.

Dedicated and widespread rainfall measurements have only existed in South Africa since 1960. There is not a whole lot of “recorded history” to go through when it comes to meteorology data in South Africa. There just isn’t enough data to say with such confidence that any of the flood events in recent years were unprecedented. Widespread satellite coverage for weather monitoring has existed only since the 1980s.

Instead of beginning with the assumption that climate change is making flooding worse in places like Durban, scientists should approach the issue more modestly. It is worthwhile to try to improve drainage and install better alarm systems in regions prone to flooding, but there is no reason to make global warming the focus of the arguments for better alerts. The truth at its most basic is sufficient: flooding happens and is especially deadly in heavily populated areas prone to flooding with inadequate warming systems and poorly designed infrastructure. People who persist in living in regions prone to flooding should be prepared, regardless of climate change.

Climate Fact-Check June 2025

Scientifically debunking claims about heatwaves, hurricanes, extreme weather, ocean acidification, & food shortages.

From ClimateRealism

By Steve Milloy

Guest Post by: The Competitive Enterprise Institute, The Heartland Institute, the Energy & Environmental Legal Institute, the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, and the International Climate Science Coalition, and Truth in Energy and Climate.

Editor’s note: This summary serves as a fact check on the top false claims made about climate change by the media in June 2025. 

Scientifically debunking claims about heatwaves, hurricanes, extreme weather, ocean acidification, & food shortages.

Links: MSNBC article, Nature link, NOAA retiring the metric, 2024 study.
Links: The Seattle Times article, Duwamish river flooding, sea level rise in Seattle.
Links: The Hill article, study, IPCC, Great Barrier Reef extent.
Links: Facebook post, very hot days in Florida data, NOAA data.
Links: Nature study, crop yield data.
Links: BBC News post, archived article.
Links: CNN article, EPA data, National Climate Assessment data, EPA heat index.
Links: TIME story, jet stream research, declining circulation patterns.

Until next month, enjoy these and other great climate fact checks at:

ClimateRealism.com

ClimateDepot.com

Wattsupwiththat.com

Originally published at Junkscience.com, reposted with permission.