Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
Let’s face it: drought isn’t just about dry riverbeds or yellow lawns anymore. These days, it’s turning up everywhere—from our dinner plates to our faucets, even right inside our homes. In this fourth episode of our summer series, biologist Marc-André Selosse takes us on a real-life tour of how drought is already reshaping daily life across France—and, spoiler alert, the consequences won’t be stopping at stained grass.
Drought on Our Plates and in Our Supermarkets
The first cracks are not just in the fields, but in what ends up on our tables. The Federation of Trade and Distribution (which brings together most of France’s big retail players) announced on August 18th that they would now welcome “ugly” fruits and vegetables onto their shelves. That’s right: the exceptional drought across France has pushed supermarkets to be more tolerant. Fruits and veggies once considered too small or unattractive—the kind your grandma used to stew—are finding their place in the produce aisle.
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This move is partly to keep a lid on soaring prices, which come as a result of massive drops in agricultural yields. According to French Vegetable Producers, losses are running from 25% to 50%—sometimes even hitting 100% for certain crops. That means tomatoes and cucumbers are reaching record prices in store, and forget about the cost of lettuce, which is especially thirsty for water.
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Repair and Hope: Individual and Systemic Responses
Our soils teem with life: not just plants, but bacteria, fungi, earthworms, insects—even moles. In our gardens, some good farming practices still apply:
Disturb the soil as little as possible mechanically
Avoid pesticides
Feed the earth with a priority for organic fertilizers
And where do you and I have the greatest influence on soil? It’s in how we consume—specifically, what we buy. According to Selosse, France’s transition to soil-regenerating farming is lagging: only around 400 farms have made the switch, so the “Au Cœur des Sols” (Heart of Soils) label remains nowhere to be seen on store shelves.
Can you imagine yourselves in the shoes of European and British farmers who have to deal with this nonsense?
Not only are you desperately trying to scavenge the fertiliser, agricultural chemicals and water your farm desperately needs, you have to deal with greens campaigning for you to revert to medieval agricultural techniques – fertilising your fields with manure and other organic processes, rather than the truck loads of chemicals which are the foundation of modern agricultural yields.
And since its Europe, there is a real chance someone in authority will listen to this green babble, and try to act on it. WUWT has already reported multiple attempts by ignorant bureaucrats to sabotage European agriculture through their arrogant insistence on organic farming practices.
Ayn Rand predicted this kind of regulatory lunacy in her book “Atlas Shrugged” – the complete failure of self involved activists and bureaucrats to respond rationally to a crisis. One of the pivotal events in the book was how despite everything farmers had successfully harvested a bumper crop of wheat. But all the trains which were meant to collect the harvested wheat were diverted by a well connected government crony to an experimental soybean plantation, leading to the loss of the wheat crop.
There is a real risk people will go hungry in 2027. Oil and fertiliser price rises due to disruption from the Persian Gulf crisis, combined with the West’s immense unpreparedness for a disruption to oil supply and fertiliser thanks to decades of green lunacy and the war on refineries, has led to farmers cutting back on food production. In addition if the coming El Nino does mess up agriculture in Australia, South America and the West Coast of the USA, Europe could be in for a very hard year.
The last thing Europe needs is greens adding to the pressure on supply chains and agricultural production with their organic farming and fertiliser / pesticide obsessions.
A little over a year ago, a study titled “Warming Accelerates Global Drought Severity” was published in Nature, a climate-consumed journal that has lost all credibility among serious folks. The authors included multiple academics from the University of Oxford in the UK, an elitist institution if there ever was one.
A little over a year ago, a study titled “Warming Accelerates Global Drought Severity” was published in Nature, a climate-consumed journal that has lost all credibility among serious folks. The authors included multiple academics from the University of Oxford in the UK, an elitist institution if there ever was one.
The abstract of the study said this (emphasis and paragraphing added):
Drought is one of the most common and complex natural hazards affecting the environment, economies and populations globally. However, there are significant uncertainties in global drought trends, and a limited understanding of the extent to which a key driver, atmospheric evaporative demand (AED), impacts the recent evolution of the magnitude, frequency, duration and areal extent of droughts.
Here, by developing an ensemble of high-resolution global drought datasets for 1901–2022, we find an increasing trend in drought severity worldwide. Our findings suggest that AED has increased drought severity by an average of 40% globally.
Not only are typically dry regions becoming drier, but also wet areas are experiencing drying trends.
During the past 5 years (2018–2022), the areas in drought have expanded by 74% on average compared with 1981–2017, with AED contributing to 58% of this increase. The year 2022 was record-breaking, with 30% of the global land area affected by moderate and extreme droughts, 42% of which was attributed to increased AED. Our findings indicate that AED has an increasingly important role in driving severe droughts and that this tendency will likely continue under future warming scenarios.
The study also produced numerous headlines in popular media such as these:
The New York Times (4 June 2025): “Higher Temperatures and a Thirsty World.”
The Guardian (3 July 2025): “Weatherwatch: how ‘thirstier’ atmosphere is making droughts more severe.”
ScienceAlert: “Our Atmosphere’s Growing Thirst Is a Hidden Cause of Worsening Droughts.” Lead author Solomon Gebrechorkos wrote that atmospheric thirst caused ~40%
Earth.com:
“How a thirsty atmosphere is making global droughts much worse.”
Later follow-up: “Earth has become a planet where the air is always thirsty, and that’s quickly drying out the land.”
Oxford / UC Santa Barbara / Cardiff University press releases (widely picked up): “Earth’s growing thirst is making droughts worse, even where it rains” and “The atmosphere’s growing thirst is making droughts worse, even where it rains.” These used the same 40% figure and an “invisible sponge” metaphor.
Climate Central (October 2025): “Warmer, Thirstier Air Worsens Drought.”
Now, the whole thing has been retracted. Here’s that story, translated from the German publication Science Files:
Drought Catastrophe Cancelled: The Next Climate Change Junk Paper Has Been Retracted
By Michael Klein
September 16, 2026
Because the climate is changing, the atmosphere drinks more [perhaps out of frustration]; because the atmosphere drinks more, it becomes drier on Earth… Most of the authors from the not fully named “author pack” make their living at the University of Oxford, and they all announced the apocalypse by drying out in 2025: Since 1981, they calculated, droughts on Earth have become more severe and more intense;
An increased “thirst” of the atmosphere made droughts from 2018 to 2022 40% more severe than in the 37 years before that.
Comparing the two periods: 5 years since 2018 versus 37 years since 1981, the area affected by drought has become 74% larger, 58% of that due to an increased “thirst of the atmosphere.”
Since 2022, 30% of the Earth’s land surface has been affected by moderate to extreme drought;
With further climate change, all of this will become much worse.
These are the results that Gebrechorkos and his co-authors spread via the mainstream media, and these are the results that are all wrong.
The authors miscalculated, mixed up data, weighted them incorrectly, compared apples at the equator with dry ice in the Arctic. The comparison periods on which all the results that made it into the media are based are incorrectly coded, so data were assigned incorrectly…
The fact that the junk study has been withdrawn does not change the fact that the articles in the mainstream media, such as the one from ZEIT that we presented above, are still there, have not been provided with any correction, and even if they had been provided with a correction, it would remain largely without effect, because contributions like that of Gebrechorkos et al. (2025) are, in my view, only written in order to be distributed by the media and to hype up the climate apocalypse.
This is not a claim made off the cuff, but one that can be demonstrated from the original contribution by Gebrechorkos et al. (2025), a contribution that was designed in such a way that the “dryness” of the Earth and its soils estimated at the end — a largely arbitrary value, the result of an absurd calculation — is maximized.
This is why the entire climate movement is collapsing. It’s all built on hype by those with special interests in perpetuating a grift, in this case, a pursuit of academic praise and, no doubt, research money put up by other grifters.
California, Nevada, and Arizona allocations will be cut a combined 1.25 million acre-feet annually for the next two years, while the upstream states evade mandatory reductions for now.
Arizona will see the biggest cuts, while states upstream — Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico — do not face any for now.
Federal officials are ordering the West to live within the limits of a Colorado River system drained by decades of over- allocation, drought, and policy delay.
California, Nevada, and Arizona allocations will be cut a combined 1.25 million acre-feet annually for the next two years, while the upstream states evade mandatory reductions for now.
Arizona will see the biggest cuts, while states upstream — Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico — do not face any for now.
Meanwhile neighboring Mexico will reduce its intake by 250,000 acre-feet (about 310 million cubic meters) under a U.S.-Mexico treaty.
“We’ve been in this 26-year prolonged drought period,” said Andrea Travnicek, the Interior Department’s assistant secretary for water and science. “We continue to see a prolonged drought in our future. So continuing to work together as a whole within the basin is going to be extremely important.”
The current rules governing the use of the river’s water are set to expire in October, and the seven states have been unable to reach a consensus on sharing it over the long term.
Federal officials announced sharp water cuts for the next two years on Friday for three Western states that rely on the imperiled Colorado River.
Years of overuse combined with drought and rising temperatures due to climate change have depleted the country's two largest… pic.twitter.com/OsVdsaFKMN
Arizona will see the largest cuts, with annual water deliveries reduced by 31%. As a result, the city of Phoenix is planning to dip into its emergency water bank.
Arizona’s large cut results from agreements and court fights over water rights more than 100 years ago.
The result was that Arizona got the lowest priority for Colorado water in times of shortages, and California the highest priority. That’s what the state is living with today.
The City of Phoenix has been preparing for this day.
The city’s plan starts with dipping into an emergency water bank for the first time since its creation more than 35 years ago.
Arizona will lose 31% of its Colorado River water over the next two years — the largest cuts of any state. Phoenix is now tapping its emergency water bank for the first time in more than 35 years to keep water flowing to residents.https://t.co/pb7ZUzlE0Xpic.twitter.com/ZBaqR20f5K
The cuts could significantly affect Nevada, which has been enjoying robust real estate development as Californians flee the Golden State.
In Southern Nevada, Kyle Roerink, senior adviser at the conservation group Great Basin Water Network, said efforts to build a new airport and shopping malls and some public land sales have not progressed, reflecting the dire hydrology inked in the federal documents. Further cuts could slow real estate development in metro Las Vegas, he said.
The river’s health often is determined by how much water is in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest human-made reservoirs in the U.S. Together, the reservoirs are at their lowest point since they began filling, according to a recent paper by Colorado River experts, and approaching levels where they could no longer produce hydropower.
Hoover Dam could lose the ability to generate hydropower if Lake Mead falls below its minimum power pool, reported as roughly 950 feet above sea level. At lower elevations, there is not enough usable water intake to operate the turbines.
Tribes, states or other groups are now able to sue Reclamation over its final plan, and could argue that the agency erred in how it conducted its environmental review.
Some tribes, like the Gila River Indian Community (GRIC) in Arizona, have indicated that drastic federal water cuts could force a lawsuit. Many tribes in the basin also have water rights on paper that have never been fully realized.
GRIC Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis said that while litigation is certainly not the community’s first choice, it is an option.
“The community … will not hesitate to turn to the courts to protect our interests and our future,” he said at a CU-Boulder water conference in June.
Perhaps the anticipated historic El Niño will bring the Southwest the rain and mountain snowpack needed to offer the Colorado River system some breathing room.
But precipitation alone will not solve a crisis worsened by decades of over-allocation, political procrastination, and an aversion to building the reservoirs, recharge projects, and other infrastructure needed to capture water when it actually arrives.
The real test will be whether Western leaders can move beyond emergency rationing and litigation long enough to prepare for both the next wet cycle and the inevitable dry one.
Finally, and as a much needed reminder, severe droughts have occurred periodically in this region of the US….long before Henry Ford invented the car.
Look carefully at this figure.
Tree-ring reconstructions show the American West experienced megadroughts lasting hundreds of years long before industrial CO₂ emissions. Cook et al. report that Medieval drought conditions persisted, with few interruptions, for “a few hundred… https://t.co/jgFEktkKQvpic.twitter.com/dWd5QwARgF
— Dr. Matthew M. Wielicki (@MatthewWielicki) August 25, 2026
Yeah, major European rivers hit record or near-record low levels/flows in summer 2026 due to prolonged drought and heatwaves, but these are modern instrumental-era records (often since the late 19th/20th century or 1992 for some satellite/model data). They are not as extreme as the reconstructed 1540 megadrought.
AI generated by Grok
Drought dries major European rivers to record lows- Really? As dry as 1540?
Yeah, major European rivers hit record or near- record low levels/flows in summer 2026 due to prolonged drought and heatwaves, but these are modern instrumental-era records (often since the late 19th/20th century or 1992 for some satellite/model data). They are not as extreme as the reconstructed 1540 megadrought.
Recent reporting (early– mid August 2026) confirms critically low conditions across key rivers:
Rhine: Record or near-record lows at multiple gauges (e.g., Cologne, Lobith on the German-Dutch border, Kaub chokepoint). July average flows were the weakest in the EFAS/Copernicus record (since ~1992) along much of its monitored length (~85%). Levels dropped below or matched prior lows from 2018/2022; navigable depths at Kaub fell to ~25 cm or lower (with forecasts of further drops), severely limiting barge loads (often to 20–30% capacity) and threatening to effectively “split” continuous navigation. Alpine snow/glacier deficits plus repeated heatwaves and low rain contributed.
Danube: Record lows in places (e.g., Budapest shattered prior marks; lows in Hungary, Serbia, Romania). Affected ~two-thirds of monitored stretches for July records since 1992. Exposed wrecks, sandbars, and constrained cooling for nuclear plants (e.g., Paks).
Others: Po (Italy; historic lows, saltwater intrusion risks), Rhône (~30% of length at July records), Thames (~95%), Loire, and stretches of others also saw extreme low discharges. Western/central Europe experienced persistent drought after a dry spring, multiple heatwaves (linked by scientists to climate change), high evaporation, and low soil moisture. Impacts include disrupted shipping/freight, reduced hydropower/nuclear output, irrigation limits, and water restrictions.
These are exceptional for the modern observational period and visible in satellite imagery, but records vary by station and metric (water level vs. discharge/flow volume). July 2026 flows at places like Lobith were lower than recent drought years (including 2022).
Comparison to 1540: The 1540 event was a far more severe, longer “megadrought” (roughly 11 months of extreme heat and precipitation deficits across large parts of western and central Europe), reconstructed from hundreds of contemporary documentary sources (chronicles, etc.). It is often described as a worst-case or among the most extreme in the last 500+ years for the region.
Estimated precipitation was far below instrumental-period minima for spring–autumn; many springs, brooks, and smaller rivers dried completely.
Major rivers (Rhine at Basel/Cologne, Elbe, others) had reconstructed autumn/summer-half-year discharges around ~10% of modern averages—people could reportedly wade or ride across stretches in places. Lake Constance dropped enough that its bed was exposed near the shore and an island became walkable from the mainland. Ground cracked; widespread fires occurred; fish were caught by hand in residual pools.
It exceeded more recent severe events (e.g., 2003 discharge deficits were milder, around –37% for the Rhine in the summer half-year in one comparison). Reconstructions and tree-ring/documentary studies place 1540 among the standout droughts (alongside events like 1616).
Modern 2026 lows are serious for navigation, energy, and agriculture in an industrialized, densely populated Europe with different infrastructure and water demands, and they sit at the extreme of the instrumental record.
However, the quantitative reconstructions for 1540 indicate substantially greater hydrological extremity and duration than anything measured in recent decades (or the current event based on available data).
Direct “as dry as” equivalence is limited by the different evidence bases (gauges/satellites vs. qualitative/historical estimates), but 1540 stands out as more extreme in the paleoclimate/documentary record.
Vast tracts of many of Europe’s largest rivers, including the Rhine, Rhone and Danube, have slowed to a trickle never before recorded in July, data from a European climate observatory showed Monday.
Yeah, that matches recent reporting from an AFP analysis of Copernicus (European climate observatory) data released around 10–11 August 2026.
Vast stretches of major rivers recorded their lowest average July flow rates (discharge) in the available record:
Roughly 95% of monitored portions of the Thames.
About 85% of the Rhine.
Around two-thirds of the Danube (Europe’s second-longest river).
Some 30% of the Rhône.
About 40% of Italy’s Po.
These were the weakest July levels since at least 1992, when the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) began providing the underlying measurements that Copernicus relays. The data cover river sections starting several dozen kilometers downstream from the sources and allow tracking even in areas without traditional gauges where the rivers are wide enough.
This occurred amid western and central Europe’s warmest early summer on record, with repeated heatwaves, persistent drought, low Alpine snow/glacier contributions in some basins, high evaporation, and critically low soil moisture. Related indicators from the European Drought Observatory reinforced the severity. Impacts have included restricted navigation (barges often limited to partial loads), reduced hydropower and nuclear cooling capacity, irrigation constraints, and water-use restrictions in affected countries.
As noted previously, these are extreme for the modern instrumental/satellite-model period (records at individual gauges sometimes go back further, e.g., late 19th century for some Rhine sites, where 2026 also set or approached all-time lows).
They are not directly comparable in severity or duration to the reconstructed 1540 European megadrought, which historical documentary evidence indicates involved even more extreme multi-month precipitation deficits and river discharges estimated as low as ~10% of average on major rivers like the Rhine and Elbe in places.
The situation remains dynamic with ongoing heat and limited rainfall in forecasts for parts of the region.
The 1540 event was a far more extreme and prolonged “megadrought” than the modern instrumental-record lows seen in 2026 (or recent droughts like 2003, 2018, or 2022), based on detailed historical reconstructions.
It is widely regarded as one of the most severe hydroclimatic extremes in Europe over the last 500+ years.
Key characteristics of the 1540 megadrought
Duration and extent: An unprecedented ~11-month event (roughly February to early December), peaking a longer dry period (ca. 1531–1540). It affected a vast area of western and central Europe (roughly 2–3 million km²), including large parts of what is now France, Germany, Switzerland, the Low Countries, northern Italy, Czech lands, Poland, and beyond.
Precipitation and heat: Extremely low rainfall—estimated number of precipitation days and totals for spring, summer, and autumn in central/western Europe were significantly below the 100-year minima of the instrumental period. Annual precipitation in places like the Swiss Plateau was around a quarter of 20th-century averages (e.g., only ~327 mm in Basel). Temperatures were exceptionally high (spring–summer likely warmer than 2003 in reconstructions; peak heat often exceeding 40°C), driven in part by a strong soil-desiccation feedback under a persistent blocking high-pressure system.
Hydrological impacts (rivers and lakes): Most springs, brooks, and smaller rivers dried up completely. Larger rivers reached extraordinary lows. Reconstructions from detailed contemporary descriptions estimate autumn/summer-half-year discharges on the Rhine (Basel and Cologne) and Elbe (e.g., Meissen) at only ~10% of long-term average volumes. People could reportedly wade or ride across stretches of the Rhine, Elbe, Seine, and others. Lake Constance dropped to extreme lows (island of Lindau became connected to the mainland; lakebed features emerged). Residual water in some rivers became stagnant, warm, and algal-contaminated; fish died or were caught by hand.
Other effects: Widespread ground cracking (some cracks large enough for a foot), Europe-wide wildfires, forest and settlement fires, crop failures, livestock deaths from thirst/heat/hunger, disrupted water-powered mills and river transport, and significant human hardship (estimates of high excess mortality in some accounts). Glaciers likely lost substantial mass.
These details come from analysis of more than 300 first-hand documentary sources (chronicles, weather reports, etc.), cross-checked with independent evidence of low river flows and fires. State-of-the-art climate models struggle to fully reproduce an event of this severity.
Comparison to 2026 (and other modern droughts)
Aspect
1540 Megadrought
2026 (and recent modern events)
Duration
~11 months of extreme dryness
Primarily spring–summer so far (ongoing heat/drought but shorter so far)
Precipitation deficit
Far below instrumental 100-year minima; ~70%+ annual deficit in core areas
Severe but within modern observational range (record for July flows since ~1992)
River discharges
~10% of average on major rivers (Rhine, Elbe); wadeable in places
Record/near-record July lows (e.g., 85% of Rhine, 2/3 of Danube at weakest since 1992); levels lower than 2018/2022 at many gauges, but not reduced to 10% averages
Heat
Extreme multi-month warmth; peaks >40°C
Multiple intense heatwaves; warmest early summer in modern records for western Europe
Spatial scale
Very large (western + central Europe)
Broad across western/central Europe, affecting Rhine, Danube, Rhône, Po, Thames, etc.
Evidence base
Documentary reconstructions
Direct gauges, satellites, EFAS/Copernicus models
Modern droughts (including 2026’s record-low July flows on large portions of the Rhine, Danube, Rhône, and others) are severe for the instrumental era and disrupt navigation, energy production, and agriculture in today’s more intensive systems.
However, quantitative reconstructions show 1540 involved substantially greater precipitation shortfalls, longer persistence, and more extreme river reductions.
Some analyses of 2022 noted it as among the worst in ~500 years in certain metrics and “close” to 1540 in severity for parts of Europe, but 1540 remains the standout “worst-case” historical benchmark for duration and hydrological extremity.
Direct numerical comparisons have limits because 1540 relies on qualitative/historical estimates rather than continuous gauges. Context also differs—Europe in 1540 had far lower population, different agriculture, and no modern infrastructure or climate change influence (it occurred during the Little Ice Age).
Today’s warmer baseline climate, glacier loss, and higher water demand amplify the impacts of even shorter or less extreme events.
In short, 2026 is exceptional by modern standards, but 1540 was a deeper, longer megadrought whose reconstructed river conditions were markedly more extreme.
USA Today claims in “Your water bill could skyrocket due to climate change, study says” that hotter, drier conditions caused by global warming could double residentially water bills across parts of the western United States. This is highly misleading.
USA Today claims in “Your water bill could skyrocket due to climate change, study says” that hotter, drier conditions caused by global warming could double residentially water bills across parts of the western United States. This is highly misleading. The article is built almost entirely on computer model projections of future drought rather than on observed drought trends, and it presents speculative scenarios as though they were inevitable.
Climate Realism has used the word scaremongering many times. Perhaps it’s time for a new word: scare modeling.
Scaremodeling is what happens when speculative computer simulations are reported as established fact. A model predicts a future problem, another model estimates the economic consequences, and the media reports the worst-case outcome as though it is already unfolding. That is exactly what USA Today has done here.
The article opens by warning readers to “get ready to pay more for your water. A lot more.” It then cites a Stanford study claiming climate change could force expensive investments in desalination, recycled water systems, and water transfers that might double residentially water bills in some communities.
Notice the qualifiers could and might. Not will. Not is. Not has.
Everything that follows depends on climate models correctly predicting a hotter, drier future for specific regions decades in advance. Those projections are then fed into economic models that estimate future infrastructure costs. In other words, the article layers one model on top of another before arriving at its alarming headline.
Models built upon models are still models, they are not observations. They are speculative future scenarios. And, because climate and economic models are routinely wrong, and current models are known to be flawed, with incorrect assumptions about the atmosphere’s response to greenhouse gas emissions, this report, and the study it is premised on is quite likely to be a matter of Garbage In, Garbage Out.
Even the article quietly admits that water costs have already been rising primarily because of aging infrastructure and decades of deferred maintenance. Those are real, measurable problems with well-documented causes. Climate change is introduced as an additional speculative pressure layered on top of existing issues.
The article never stops to ask whether the underlying assumption, that America is becoming progressively drier, is actually supported by observations, despite the fact that the evidence says otherwise.
Climate at a Glancedocuments that there has been no long-term increase in drought across the United States. Drought has always been a recurring feature of the American climate, varying from year to year and decade to decade. Some regions become drier while others become wetter, but nationwide observations do not show the inexorable march toward permanent drought portrayed in media reports.
In fact, the United States has generally become wetter in recent decades.
That should not be surprising, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. When conditions are favorable, that can translate into increased precipitation. The observational record reflects this complex reality far better than simplistic stories.
The article also focuses almost exclusively on Santa Cruz, California, using it as a case study for future water affordability. But Santa Cruz is hardly representative of the United States as a whole with all its varied landscapes and weather trends. Santa Cruz relies heavily on local surface water and limited storage capacity, making it uniquely vulnerable to periodic dry spells.
Local infrastructure decisions are not evidence of a national climate emergency.
Nor is it surprising that western states periodically experience drought. They always have. The American West is defined by highly variable precipitation driven by ocean cycles, atmospheric circulation, and mountain snowpack. Long before climate change became today’s explanation for every weather event, the region endured prolonged droughts, sometimes lasting hundreds of years, that shaped its history.
Those events occurred before SUVs, coal-fired power plants, or modern greenhouse gas emissions, yet USA Today never mentions them.
Instead, readers are presented with a future in which a slight increase in global average temperatures forces expensive infrastructure investments and soaring water bills. That may make for an attention-grabbing headline, but it is speculation, not settled science.
If water rates continue rising, the most immediate reasons will likely remain the same ones that utilities have been citing for years: the costs of replacing aging pipes, repairing reservoirs, modernizing treatment plants to meet stricter regulatory requirements, higher costs for updated parts, materials, and labor, in part due to inflation, all of this resulting from decades of deferred maintenance.
Those costs are real, as opposed to the speculative costs attributed to future climate change by models’ forecasts.
USA Today’s readers deserve better than speculative headlines built on hypothetical futures. They deserve reporting grounded in observed data, historical context, and the recognition that climate models are tools for exploring possibilities, not crystal balls predicting tomorrow’s water bill.
More absurdity from the climate change causes everything bad brigade.
The reason Iran has a water crisis while other gulf states and Israel do not, is the current regime doesn’t care enough about water security to fix the problems. Their entire attention has been focussed on self-enrichment and the destruction of Israel and the United States since the Iranian revolution.
Fears of a reignited conflict are rising, even as the true cost of war is only beginning to be tallied. Alongside the thousands of deaths, the destruction of infrastructure, and the global economic costs, the war is exacerbating existing climate vulnerabilities and exposing the people of the region to an increasingly dangerous and nearly uninhabitable reality.
A combination of conflict and climate change has most acutely affected Iran and the broader Middle East and North Africa. Water is rationed, temperatures are breaking records, and droughts have been increasingly severe. Temperatures in the region are expected to rise by twice the global average during the 21st century. Syria, Libya, and Yemen have already endured civil wars and protracted humanitarian crises. Climate change and conflict share a complex, multidimensional relationship, each capable of exacerbating the other.
…
Beyond targeted attacks on desalination plants, strikes against civilian and industrial infrastructure since war started—including strikes on oil facilities and chemical plants—have polluted the region’s already fragile waterways. As World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has warned, attacks on petroleum facilities in Iran at the outset of the war, including those targeting the Shahran oil depot and the Shahr-e Rey refinery in Tehran, risked “contaminating food, water, and air,” with potentially severe health consequences for children and the elderly.
The conflict is also deepening these vulnerabilities by diverting governments’ attention, capacity, and funding away from the climate resilience and adaptation investments their populations urgently need. The war has caused at least $58 billion in damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf, and slashed tourism revenues by around $600 million a day since hostilities began. The result is regional governments left with fewer resources to adapt to the worsening climate crisis, including efforts to combat water scarcity.
Articles like this are a reminder of the profound ignorance of some sectors of the establishment media. They’re talking about Iran like it is a normal country, which takes the needs of their citizens seriously.
The reason Iran has a water crisis while other gulf states and Israel do not, is the current regime doesn’t care enough about water security to fix the problems. Their entire attention has been focussed on self enrichment and the destruction of Israel and the United States since the Iranian revolution.
Iran’s water crisis exposes collapse of the regime
Decades of corruption, mismanagement and misplaced nuclear priorities leave Tehran facing rationing, empty reservoirs and potential evacuation
Iran’s capital is now experiencing a massive and deepening water shortage. After months of drought and scorching heat, the five reservoirs feeding the city of more than 10 million are mostly empty. Local authorities have been forced to mandate water rationing, and the situation has become so dire that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian recently warned that, unless the region experiences rainfall in the coming weeks, the city may need to be evacuated altogether.
…
The reasons have everything to do with the skewed priorities of Iran’s ruling clerical regime. True to their revolutionary pedigree, Iran’s ayatollahs have consistently preferred guns over butter. They have poured billions of dollars into the country’s nuclear program, its burgeoning arsenal of ballistic missiles and its extensive network of terrorist proxies.
What they have not done is make a meaningful, sustained nationwide effort to reverse the country’s worsening water situation. Now that the crisis has truly hit, Iranian officials are predictably trying to deflect the blame onto the Iranian people themselves.
The author of the following article is Nikahang Kowsar, a University of Tehran trained geologist who once stood for election as a reformist candidate for Tehran City Council, but currently lives in exile in the United States.
Grand Theft Hydrology: How Iran’s Water Mafia Engineered a Drought—Then Sent the Bill
Iran’s drought isn’t some angry weather god punishing us with a dry spell.
Enter the Water Mafia—a term I’ve been using for years, finally getting the attention it deserves after some recent geopolitical truth bombs. Imagine a cozy little cartel of IRGC contractors, consultants with magical impact assessments, ex-revolutionaries rebranded as “hydropolitical visionaries,” and a revolving door of Energy Ministry officials who always seem to retire in Dubai or Vancouver… right around the time the rivers disappear.
These folks don’t manage collapse—they monetize it. Every dried-up wetland, every cracked riverbed, every tanker-truck village is another invoice: signed, sealed, and cashed.
And here’s the real magic: even in wet years, there’s still a crisis. Why? Because they’ve already sucked the aquifers dry—and surprise, they’re not refilling. Iran’s water policy is basically looting the savings account and burning down the vault. What used to be underground reservoirs—nature’s emergency fund—is now either empty or, thanks to land subsidence, permanently damaged. Entire basins have collapsed like a Ponzi scheme in a sandstorm. You can’t store water in a sunken sponge.
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Let’s be clear: this isn’t just environmental collapse. It’s theft. It’s a crime scene. A slow-motion disaster that was warned1 about, predicted2, entirely preventable, and—most unforgivably—profitable.
The biggest threat to water security in Iran is the Iranian regime. They didn’t have to provoke Israel and the USA into attacking them. They didn’t have to turn a blind eye to corruption, so well connected thieves could loot what public water budget was available. Building more wind turbines in the West will not fix this hideous mess.
The Time article goes on to claim higher CO2 levels will make nations like Iran uninhabitable, but the evidence does not support this assertion.
During the Holocene Optimum, when sea level was significantly higher than today, and temperatures were likely significantly warmer than today, Iran was wet. Large parts of Iran experienced significant monsoonal rainfall.
A Late Pleistocene-Holocene multi-proxy record of climate variability in the Jazmurian playa, southeastern Iran
• Paleoenvironmental changes since the LGM in southeastern Iran were recorded in a sediment core from the Jazmurian playa
• The Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon and Mid-Latitude Westerlies impacted the landscape resulting in multiple wet and dry periods
• Precipitation changed from a monsoon-dominated regime to one influenced by the Mid-Latitude Westerlies during late-Holocene
• Paleoenvironmental changes in the playa are contemporaneous with other global and regional paleoclimatic studies
• The study facilitates further linkages between paleoenvironmental changes and advances in the history of human civilization
Abstract
We present a multi-proxy record from a 5-m long sediment core from the Jazmurian playa in southeastern Iran to provide insights into globally-recognized major climatic events since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In particular, we examined how variability in the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon (IOSM) and Mid-Latitude Westerlies (MLW) contribute to distinct environmental changes in this arid to hyper-arid region in the interior of West Asia. While interior West Asia showed cold windy conditions during the LGM and post-LGM, southeast Iran experienced quiescent conditions similar to south Asia. The presence of fine-grained sediments, low magnetic susceptibility, and a decrease in aeolian inputs from ca. 21 to 14 cal kyr BP, suggests that effects of both wind and precipitation were minimal during these quiescent conditions. Increased fluvial inputs, coupled with a low abundance of evaporite minerals in Jazmurian sediments, indicated a greater influence of the IOSM between 14 and 13.2 cal kyr BP. In contrast, the Jazmurian playa was dry and dusty between 13.2 and 11.4 cal kyr BP, as reflected by an increase in aeolian sands, and the presence of evaporite minerals. This was followed by a period of strong IOSM activity during the early Holocene, coinciding with higher fluvial input ca. 11.4 cal kyr BP. The early Holocene in southeast Iran was wetter than other analogs in south Asia because of inputs from both IOSM and MWL. Several intense dry periods with sharp increases in aeolian inputs occurred after the early Holocene, due to the southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Precipitation sources changed from a monsoon-dominated regime to one influenced mainly by the MLW during the late-Holocene. These results show that palaeoenvironmental changes in the Jazmurian playa, located at the border of IOSM and MLW zones, were primarily governed by global and regional paleoclimatic changes.
My point is it’s an oversimplification to suggest warmer temperatures, even if significant further warming occurs, would simply lead to hotter and drier conditions. They could easily lead to wetter conditions, as was the case in the not so distant past.
In summary the most effective short term solution to fixing Iran’s “climate” problems is to get rid of the regime of corrupt incompetents whose maladministration of Iran’s public water systems created this mess. The current Iranian regime has never shown interest in taking water management seriously, and given their track record of using water availability as a coercive political lever, there is no reason to expect they will ever take a serious interest in providing water security for their people.
Will somebody save us all from these clowns who call themselves “journalists”?
Experts fear a ‘Godzilla’ El Niño will be strongest on record and cause widespread devastation.
The world could be on the brink of a “Godzilla-like” El Niño extreme weather pattern that could trigger economic and political disruption around the world.
El Niño, an oceanic heatwave that occurs two to three times each decade, is building in the Pacific around the equator, and is expected to peak in September, the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned.
The warm current will affect weather patterns and increase the risk of droughts in Australia, and southern parts of Asia and Africa. It will also increase the likelihood of violent storms and heavy rainfall in parts of the Americas.
While droughts and storms are bad enough, experts say this could be the strongest El Niño on record, with even more severe potential outcomes. These include flooding, landslides, wildfires, famine, conflict and migration.
The expected severity has led to some meteorologists using the term Godzilla El Niño – after the colossal dinosaur-like creature that has featured in dozens of monster films.
El Niño has been causing weather-related disasters for centuries. It is thought to have contributed to the collapse of Peru’s ancient Moche civilisation in the eighth century, for example.
So, at a time when global supply chains and geopolitics are especially fragile, what could a Godzilla El Niño mean for the world? Here are three potential effects.
The report goes on to claim that food supply will be disrupted, migration will increase and and there will be “conflict zone flare-ups”.
All this from a weather phenomenon that comes around every four or five years – something humanity has managed to survive for millennia! Indeed, when you add in La Ninas, which also impact the weather, most years are “abnormal”!
El Ninos create a problem for the alarmist media. As global temperatures can rise by as much as a full degree in the space of a couple of years, as the climate swings from La Nina to El Nino, without any noticeable detriment to human life, why on earth should we be worried about much smaller rises in temperature spread over many decades?
Hence the attempts to frighten us with childish descriptions of Godzilla weather patterns triggering economic and political disruption around the world.
In reality, the changes to weather patterns brought about by El Nino have nothing at all to do with higher temperatures. They are the result of the change in atmospheric weather patterns.
The Met Office have this useful video, showing exactly what El Nino is:
Because of the changes in Pacific trade winds, as shown above, precipitation patterns around the world are also affected:
To label weather as “good” or “bad” is an oversimplification. The BBC, for instance, talk about floods in some regions, but heavier rain is more often than beneficial for agriculture.
But these effects tend to be much smaller than they would like us to believe. They are usually much more subtle. Take the Indian monsoon, for example:
Yes, El Ninos tend to lead to droughts, but not always so. Droughts often occur in other years as well. But more significantly El Nino-linked droughts have not become more severe over time, which the silly Telegraph article implies. Indian rainfall patterns respond to atmospheric changes, not global temperatures.
Finally, just to deal with the food supply crisis, we are supposed to expect, the chart of cereal production proves that recent El Ninos have had zero effect on output:
One of the biggest problems I have with the drought crowd is that the very definition of drought also takes into account usage. If there is more usage than the same amounts of rain, we now will have a stronger drought index than 50 years ago.
It has been absurdly dry this year so far.
Cute little child boy enjoys warm summer rain catching falling drops with palms on green meadow in cottage backyard closeup
Some form of drought covers 61% of the nation, and, of course, that is raising eyebrows
One of the biggest problems I have with the drought crowd is that the very definition of drought also takes into account usage. If there is more usage than the same amounts of rain, we now will have a stronger drought index than 50 years ago.
It has been absurdly dry this year so far.
But it’s certainly not representative of the past 10 years, so it’s an outlier.
Meanwhile, a strong to super El Niño in the oceanic Niño index is coming on.
The same period during those El Niños:
So be prepared, a “Hard Rain’s a Gonna Fall.” In fact, multiple events. So people a year from now (probably sooner) will be complaining about flooding. And given everything is blamed on you know what, the same thing being blamed now, will be blamed then.
There is an official statewide drought emergency declaration in Washington State, issued on April 8, 2026, by the Department of Ecology.
There is an official statewide drought emergency declaration in Washington State, issued on April 8, 2026, by the Department of Ecology.
This is the fourth consecutive year with at least a partial declaration, and the fourth statewide one since 2015. It applies to all watersheds due to projected water supplies falling below 75% of normal (the state’s legal threshold), combined with risks of hardship for water users, agriculture, fish, and the environment.
The U.S. Drought Monitor (as of late April 2026) indicates ~40% of the state in moderate drought (D1) or worse, with the rest abnormally dry or normal — not “exceptional” statewide.
On April 8, Washington State declared a DROUGHT EMERGENCY for Washington State.
In fact, this is the fourth year in a row that the Washington State Department of Ecology has done so.
As described below, these drought emergency declarations are unwarranted and are contradictory to meteorological facts and the actual impacts.
Let me remind you about the definitions of emergency and drought.
An emergency must be sudden and unexpected, requiring immediate action to prevent imminent danger. It is a crisis. As I will prove below, this does not characterize what has happened in Washington this year or the past few years.
The term “drought” means both MUCH drier than normal conditions and significant negative impacts of the dryness.
Half the years have below-normal precipitation. Half the years have below-normal snowpack. All these below-normal years are not drought years.
Let us consider the water situation this year.
The major reservoirs of our state are full or WAY above normal in water storage. Some examples”
Seattle: much above normal.
Everett: much above normal
The critically important Yakima River reservoir system: FULL and much above normal.
The Columbia River water levels are above normal, and predictions are for plenty of water for both irrigation and power. The Columbia is the most important source of irrigation water in eastern Washington. It irrigates TEN TIMES the number of acres as the Yakima River.
River levels in the state are all close to normal.
Precipitation over the State for the water year (October 1 to now)?
Above normal for most of the state, and MUCH above normal in the mountains (that is why all the reservoirs are so full!)
Soil moisture? Above normal!
Crop moisture? Above normal in much of the state, nowhere below normal.
Current status of crops? They are in excellent shape with extremely high yields for winter wheat. Apples look good as well
So with all this good water news, why is the Washington State Department of Ecology calling a drought emergency?
They claim it is because the state snowpack is below normal: about half of average (see below). This snowpack normally melts in May and June, helping to top off the reservoirs and support streamflow during the early to mid-summer.
Don’t get me wrong. It would be better if the snowpack were normal. But there really is no water problem this summer with the current snowpack and certainly no drought.
First, 50% snowpack is not zero, and there will be substantial snowmelt water available during the next few months.
Second, reservoir managers were very wise and used the above-normal precipitation of the past winter to fill all the reservoirs. Better weather prediction supports this, since they can fill the reservoirs, knowing they would have time to partially drain them if a major storm approaches.
Third, and this is not advertised by the water fear mongers, Washington State gets much more precipitation (including snow water) than it needs, and much of the snowmelt moves down the rivers into the sea.
Fourth, Washington State agriculture can do quite well with below normal precipitation. This is true of the Yakima basin farmers when they don’t get their full allotment.
What happened during the 2025 Drought Emergency?
The Washington State Department of Ecology is undermining its credibility with these inflammatory and unscientific drought emergencies.
They would be wise to read some classical literature, such as The Boy Who Cried Wolf and Chicken Little (The Sky Is Falling). One loses credibility when exaggerating threats. Eventually, others don’t take you seriously.
This year, the Washington State Department of Ecology and others (e.g., the Seattle Times) are claiming we are in a drought emergency.
In several of my recent blogs, I explained why I think they are wrong.
Precipitation has been above normal, reservoirs are full, substantial snowpack is in place (about 50% of normal), soils are moist, current forecasts are for substantial spring precipitation, and there is little evidence of any impacts of the low snowpack on water supplies or agriculture.
Remember, a key aspect of a drought is that it has to have substantial IMPACTS.
To quote the drought.gov website:
A drought is a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall or, generally, a severe deficiency of moisture, resulting in water shortages for people, agriculture, and ecosystems.
Droughts need to have impacts, and the negative impacts of the high precipitation/low snowpack situation this year will be minimal
It would be interesting to evaluate the track record of drought advocates in government, the media, and climate advocacy groups.
So let’s do it!
Consider last year (2025).
The Department of Ecology put out a drought EMERGENCY declaration in early April and expanded it greatly on June 5, 2025:
The Seattle Times and other media outlets had several drought stories, becoming increasingly ominous over time, about the serious drought threat (see sample below).
In my blog last year, I argued against the extreme drought mania, providing the actual water supply numbers, which suggest little or no impact. But the dire warnings continued and amplified.
A year later, we know the truth: there was no problem with water supply for the population, and Washington Agriculture flourished.
The dire warnings were totally wrong.
Seattle’s water supply? Never got close to low-reservoir conditions in 2025 (dashed lines below). Other major water supply reservoirs (e.g., Tacoma, Everett, etc) were similar.
How about the 2025 crops?
Apples? There was a RECORD-EQUALING harvest of excellent quality (color and size).
Cherries? A strong, bumper crop with some of the best quality in years, with a long season. Excellent quality and big fruit.
Potatoes? The 2025 crop was characterized by high quality and excellent growing conditions, with a similar yield to 2024. Chris Voigt, Executive Director at the Washington Potato Commission, noted that 2025 lacked extended periods of heat and overall had ideal weather conditions for potatoes.
Wheat? USDA’s Small Grains Summary, Washington, noted that the state produced 141.5 million bushels of wheat in 2025, which is down 1.5% from 2024, but still 12% above the five-year average.
Raspberries? Last year’s total production exceeded 60 million pounds, which will be the highest harvest since 2018.
I could discuss more crops, but you get the message. 2025 was an excellent year for Washington State agriculture, with little evidence of drought impacts.
Did drought greatly reduce Northwest hydropower output (see U.S. government analysis below)?
Nope.
According to Federal data, NW hydropower was close to the long-term average, with a nice recovery from 2025.
The bottom line in all this is that there was little evidence of drought over our region based on impacts, and such impacts are required to call a situation a drought.
Some locations are fortunate to receive more precipitation than is required, and we are lucky to be in such a place.
For me, a more interesting question is why Washington State officials don’t understand this basic fact?
And why are Seattle Times reporters not completing the simple research that indicates that last year’s drought warnings were without any basis in terms of impacts?
I bet you guess why such deceptive, scary language is being used by those responsible for informing us.
But whatever the motive, it is very harmful, resulting in unnecessary worry and leading to bad decisions (like the wasteful, corrupting Washington State CCA, which preferentially hurts low-income people while enriching special interest groups).
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