Day: May 27, 2026

Ice Isnโ€™t Passive: It Supercharges Mineral Dissolution in Microscale Chemical Hot Spots

Ice does not simply slow down or preserve minerals โ€” it actively enhances the ligand-promoted dissolution of iron (and potentially other) minerals. This happens through freeze-concentration in microscopic liquid pockets (brine veins or “hot spots”) between ice crystals.

Ice does not simply slow down or preserve minerals โ€” it actively enhances the ligand-promoted dissolution of iron (and potentially other) minerals. This happens through freeze-concentration in microscopic liquid pockets (brine veins or “hot spots”) between ice crystals.

Freeze-concentration (also called cryo-concentration or freeze exclusion) is the process where, as water freezes into ice crystals, dissolved solutes (salts, ligands, acids, organics, etc.) are largely excluded from the ice lattice and become highly concentrated in residual liquid pockets, films, veins, or “brine channels” within or between ice crystals.

This creates microscale “hot spots” with dramatically elevated concentrations, altered pH, and enhanced reaction ratesโ€”directly relevant to the Umeรฅ University studies on accelerated mineral dissolution (e.g., goethite with ligands like fluoride or sulfate).

Freeze-concentration (also known as cryo-concentration or freeze exclusion) is the fundamental process turning ice into an active geochemical reactor. It drives the enhanced ligand-controlled mineral dissolution in the Umeรฅ University studies.

Brine forms complex, evolving patterns: pockets, veins, columns, or films. Migration occurs via gravity, temperature gradients, and diffusion. Real-time imaging shows staged exclusion during freezing.

In the Umeรฅ goethite experiments, nanoparticles and ligands concentrate in these liquid networks within mineral aggregates, sustaining dissolution even at low bulk temperatures.

A recent study from Umeรฅ University (published in PNAS in 2026) finds that ice actively accelerates the breakdown of iron minerals, potentially releasing more iron than current climate and environmental models account for.

Researchers examined how freezing affects the dissolution of goethite in the presence of various salts.

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Ice amplifies ligand-controlled mineral dissolution in microscale hot spots

“Ice amplifies ligand-controlled mineral dissolution in microscale hot spots” is the title of a 2026 PNAS paper from researchers at Umeรฅ University (led by Jean-Franรงois Boily, with first author Tao Chen and colleagues).

The study challenges the view of ice as geochemically inert. Instead, it acts as a dynamic reactor accelerating iron oxide dissolution via microscale liquid water networks. Common environmental anions boost mineral weathering in ice, with major implications for frozen regions (permafrost covers ~17% of Earth’s land surface). Models may underestimate nutrient mobilization, trace element cycling, weathering rates, Arctic river iron fluxes, carbon mobilization, and GHG emissions under climate change.

Abstract & Core Findings

Ice enhances dissolution systematically through freeze-concentration into microscale reactive “hot spots.”

Model system: Goethite nanoparticles (ฮฑ-FeOOH, abundant in soils, sediments, dust) + environmentally relevant inorganic ligands/anions (chloride, fluoride, sulfate; also perchlorate as control) under mildly acidic conditions.

Dissolution rates scale with ligand binding affinity to iron in both ice and liquid water.

Ice amplification: Observed for all reactive ligands; strongest for fluoride (>4ร— more iron released vs. liquid water). Perchlorate (very weak binder) showed no measurable dissolution in either phase.

Reactions continue well below eutectic temperatures, enabled by tiny volumes of liquid-like water in networks of micron-sized mineral aggregates.

Key mechanistic insights

Freeze-concentration: Freezing expels solutes into concentrated brine pockets/films between ice crystals or within mineral aggregates โ†’ dramatically higher local ligand concentrations (potentially hundreds-fold), accelerating surface complexation and Fe detachment.

Ligand-controlled kinetics: Stronger binders (e.g., Fโป) form more stable surface complexes, promoting faster dissolution. The affinity-dissolution correlation holds in both phases but is amplified in ice.

Stabilized micro-environments: Liquid-like water persists in pores/aggregates even at low temperatures, creating persistent reactive hotspots. Raman microscopy and other techniques visualized spatial distribution and these networks.

This extends earlier observations (e.g., freezing-enhanced iron oxide dissolution with acids, rusty Arctic streams from permafrost thaw, and the group’s 2025 oxalate work).

Why This Matters for Climate Models

  • Permafrost and seasonal freezing cover large areas (~17% of land in permafrost alone, plus more with seasonal cycles). Climate change increases freeze-thaw frequency and permafrost thaw, amplifying these processes.
  • Iron’s roles: It limits algae/phytoplankton growth in many oceans and lakes, influences carbon binding in soils, and affects water quality/color (e.g., “rusty” Arctic rivers).
  • Models often treat ice as passive and may underestimate iron (and other trace element) release from soils, sediments, and dust in cold regions. This could affect predictions for nutrient cycles, primary productivity, carbon storage, and ecosystem changes in polar and mountain areas.

Experimental Approach

  • Controlled lab experiments comparing identical systems in frozen vs. supercooled/unfrozen states.
  • Goethite nanoparticles (high surface area, relevant to natural settings).
  • Quantitative iron release measurements.
  • Supporting techniques: vibrational spectroscopy (Raman), X-ray scattering, electron microscopy for characterization of aggregates, surfaces, and hot spots.
  • Focus on inorganic anions common in soils/waters/aerosols (with ties to volcanic inputs, sea salt, etc.).

Broader Implications

  • Cryosphere & climate: Increased freeze-thaw frequency and permafrost thaw under warming could amplify iron (and associated carbon/trace metals) release. Iron limits productivity in oceans/lakes; affects soil carbon stability; contributes to water browning/”rusting.”
  • Modeling: Current Earth system/climate models often treat ice as passive. This suggests incorporating freeze-concentration effects and ligand-binding rules for better predictions in polar/alpine regions.
  • Generalizability: The binding-affinity rule offers a predictive framework for other minerals/ligands. Extends beyond iron to trace elements and weathering.
  • Links to real-world phenomena: Arctic “rusting” rivers, enhanced nutrient fluxes, potential feedback on carbon cycling and ecosystems.

Implications

Climate & environmental models: Many treat ice as inert. This suggests underestimation of iron (and trace metal) release from soils, sediments, and dust in cold regions.

Iron influences:

  • Ocean/lake productivity (nutrient for phytoplankton).
  • Carbon cycling (binding/storage in soils).
  • Water quality (e.g., browning or “rusty” Arctic rivers).

Permafrost thaw and increased freeze-thaw events due to warming could amplify these effects.

Broader relevance: Potentially applies to other minerals and ligands; offers a predictive rule based on binding affinity for better modeling.

Context

  • Lab-based (controlled conditions); real soils/sediments have complex mineralogy, organics, microbes, and hydrology that modulate effects.
  • Focuses on terrestrial/permafrost/seasonal ice contexts more than glacial melt directly.
  • Builds on (and is consistent with) prior freezing-enhanced geochemistry studies but provides clearer mechanistic scaling with ligand strength.
  • No major controversies noted in early coverage; aligns with observations of changing Arctic biogeochemistry.

The paper is open-access (or has SI with full methods/data). It reframes ice from a “preservative” to an active driver of geochemical changeโ€”important as the cryosphere shrinks and transforms.

Published:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI: DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2532599123

Provided: Umea University

Authors: Tao Chen, Tao Luo, Tra My Bui Thi  and Jean-Franรงois Boily

Abstract

Cold-region ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change, yet the geochemical processes shaping their future remain poorly understood.

Here, we show that ice systematically enhances mineral dissolution through freeze concentration into microscale reactive hot spots.

Using goethite nanoparticles as a model iron oxide and environmentally relevant inorganic anions common in soils, waters, and aerosols (chloride, fluoride, sulfate), we demonstrate that ligand-promoted dissolution rates under mildly acidic conditions scale with binding affinity in both ice and liquid water, with ice enhancing rates across all reactive ligands.

Fluoride, the strongest complexing agent, increased dissolution more than fourfold in ice, while weakly binding perchlorate produced no measurable dissolution in either phase.

Reactions persisted well below the eutectic temperature, mediated by minute volumes of liquid-like water stabilized within networks of micron-sized mineral aggregates.

Our findings highlight ice as a dynamic medium driving iron release, with implications for nutrient availability, carbon cycling, and biogeochemical feedbacks in rapidly warming polar and alpine regions.

European โ€œExpert Commissionโ€ Urges COVID-19-Like Global Climate State Of Energency!

We want our crises back!

According to WELT, a pan-European expert commission on health and sustainable development, appointed by the WHO and chaired by former Icelandic Prime Minister Katrรญn Jakobsdรณttir, is urging the WHO to declare the climate crisis a
We want our crises back!
โ€œPublic Health Emergency of International Concern.โ€ This is the WHOโ€™s highest level of alert, which was previously triggered during the Covid-19 pandemic.

From The NoTrickZone

By P Gosselin

We want our crises back!

Germanyโ€™s online WELT (published mid-May 2026) outlines a major health and climate policy demand made by a โ€œhigh-level expert commissionโ€ to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Symbol image generated by Grok AI

According to WELT, a pan-European expert commission on health and sustainable development, appointed by the WHO and chaired by former Icelandic Prime Minister Katrรญn Jakobsdรณttir, is urging the WHO to declare the climate crisis a โ€œPublic Health Emergency of International Concern.โ€ This is the WHOโ€™s highest level of alert, which was previously triggered during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Climate change an acute โ€œmedical emergency?

In its report, the commission emphasizes that the climate crisis is no longer an abstract threat to future generations. Instead, it is an acute danger to global health, security, social cohesion, and human rights.

Former German Federal Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach (SPD socialists) is a member of this commission, and he strongly supports the proposal, calling climate change an acute โ€œmedical emergency.โ€ He warned that climate change must be placed at the very top of the WHOโ€™s agenda, arguing that waiting makes no sense given the severe health consequences, such as tens of thousands of heat-related deaths and the health impacts of fossil fuel combustion.

Phase out fossil fuels

The WHO report outlines concrete steps for action. Firstly, the WHO should establish a central โ€œClimate Information Hubโ€ to provide scientifically sound forecasts and fact-checks.

Secondly, national governments are urged to firmly anchor climate risks within their security and healthcare policies and to phase out subsidies for fossil fuels.

The steps also call on the WHO reviewing every two years how well individual countries are preparing their healthcare systems for climate change. Furthermore, medical staff should receive better training in sustainability and climate adaptation.

The timing of the reportโ€™s submission was strategically chosen to precede the annual World Health Assembly of the WHO in Geneva, aiming to initiate a debate on updating international health regulations.

Energy Quango Costs Balloon Amid Miliband Net Zero Push

Ed Milibandโ€™s Net Zero push has seen costs balloon and staff numbers surge by up to 382% across Britainโ€™s top four energy quangos.

From The Daily Sceptic

By Richard Eldred

Ed Milibandโ€™s Net Zero push has seen costs balloon and staff numbers surge by up to 382% across Britainโ€™s top four energy quangos. The Telegraph has the story:

Ofgem, the Climate Change Committee, the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) and Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC) have all exploded in size over the past decade as Britain races to cut climate emissions, a study from the Taxpayers Alliance (TA) found.

Among the biggest beneficiaries is the little-known LCCC, which administers the UKโ€™s multi-billion-pound annual Net Zero subsidies to generators.

It has seen its headcount soar by 382% from 49 employees to 236 staff while costs have also tripled, TA said on Tuesday.

Those costs are set to more than double by 2029 as more subsidised wind, solar and other projects commissioned by Mr Miliband come into operation.

Similarly, regulator Ofgem saw expenditure rise by 237% from ยฃ77 million to ยฃ260 million while its headcount more than doubled from 907 staff to 2,276, making it one of the largest energy regulators in Europe.

Much of the growth in all four bodies is linked to the increasing focus on achieving Net Zero targets, the growing complexity of the UKโ€™s energy systems and especially decarbonising electricity.

The data covers 2015 to 2025, meaning Mr Miliband was in charge of energy policy for only a small amount of that period. However, the Labour Energy Secretary has dramatically stepped up the countryโ€™s Net Zero push since coming to power.

The Climate Change Committeeโ€™s headcount rose 89% from 30 to 57.

A Government spokesman said such quangos were good value for money. โ€œNet Zero is the economic opportunity of the centuryโ€ฆ We are absolutely focused on ensuring every pound spent of taxpayer money delivers for the publicโ€.

Worth reading in full.

Amsterdam Ad Ban Typifies Climate Alarmismโ€™s Farce

Amsterdam just became the worldโ€™s first capital to outlaw public ads for both meat and fossil fuels. Starting May 1, city officials scrubbed billboards, tram stops, and metro stations of promotions for gasoline cars, airlines, cruises, and distant vacations, along with beef, chicken, pork, and fish.

From CO2 Coalition

By Vijay Jayaraj

Amsterdam just became the worldโ€™s first capital to outlaw public ads for both meat and fossil fuels. Starting May 1, city officials scrubbed billboards, tram stops, and metro stations of promotions for gasoline cars, airlines, cruises, and distant vacations, along with beef, chicken, pork, and fish.

In place of the now illegal ads are posters for the Rijksmuseum and piano concerts, which apparently are included in the cityโ€™s vision of a carbon-neutral metropolis that consumes half as much meat.

Driving the ad ban through city council were two political parties, GreenLeft and Party for the Animals. Their claim of fighting impulse buying that locks in โ€œhigh-carbonโ€ habits poorly disguises an abuse of political power that denies people reasonable everyday choices in exchange for nothing benefiting the environment. Attacking ordinary human life, Amsterdam officials now treat essential fuels and basic nutrition as societal evils that must be hidden from public view.

City councillor Anneke Veenhoff likens the ban to helping people kick addictions by removing the temptation of a substance to force behavioral change.

Other Dutch cities have instituted ad bans, including Haarlemโ€™s prohibition of meat promotion in 2024 and The Hagueโ€™s 2025 barring of fossil fuel advertising. Worldwide, more than 50 citiesโ€”from Stockholm and Edinburgh to Sydney and Florenceโ€”indulge the same folly.

France passed a national ban on fossil fuel ads in 2022, and Spain is considering one. U.N. boss Antonio Guterres cheered on such bans last year, calling for prohibitions on oil, gas, and coal ads while labeling humans the โ€œmeteorโ€ smashing Earth. This โ€œattitude-shiftingโ€ is presented as something akin to an anti-smoking campaign.

The ad bans are based on nothing more than climate pseudoscience, which draws on exaggerations of the effects of natural processes, fabrications of data, and speculative computer modeling. The apocalyptic predictions of anti-meat activists, for example, are easily refuted by empirical data. Methane emissions of ruminant animals purported to threaten dangerous atmospheric heating have an immeasurably small influence on the planetโ€™s temperature.

An analysis published by the COโ‚‚ Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia, shows that even extreme mitigation measures produce negligible results. Eliminating all 1.6 billion cattle worldwide was calculated to avert warming by about 0.04 degrees Celsius. The effect of killing 1.3 billion sheep would be 10 times smaller.

These figures represent changes so small that they fall below the threshold of detection in real-world climate systems.

Policies crippling to agriculture produce massive economic destruction for no benefit. No sane leader would spend a single taxpayer dollar to chase such statistically irrelevant and ludicrous objectives. Activists pushing these agendas demand immense sacrifices from working families while offering no environmental improvement.

The campaign against fossil fuels mirrors this same detachment from reality. Energy abundance remains a requirement for prosperity. Fossil fuels have powered innovation, extended lifespans, and expanded opportunity everywhere. Hydrocarbons power transportation, generate electricity, and serve as feedstock for countless products. From fertilizers that sustain crop yields to materials used in medicine, fossil fuels underpin modern life.

European politicians banning advertisements for petroleum-powered vehicles signal a profound ignorance of history and economics and a deficit of common sense. Modern economies rely on affordable, abundant coal and natural gas to power factories, build infrastructure, and move essential goods. When international bodies stigmatize these fuels, they threaten the economic advancement of the worldโ€™s most vulnerable populations and the sustenance of all.

Advertising bans serve only to boost a feeling of moral superiority among urban elites while achieving nothing and jeopardizing much. They represent a rejection of human progress and a dangerous embrace of unscientific dogma.

Amsterdamโ€™s performative stunt exposes climate dogmaโ€™s hollow core of grand gestures and zero results that must be rejected at every opportunity.

Originally published at PJ Media, May 22, 2026.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelorโ€™s in engineering from Anna University, India. He served as a research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia, Canada.

Ancient Antarctic Dust Reveals Major Retreat of Ross Ice Shelf and West Antarctic Ice Sheet During Last Interglacial Warming

The McMurdo Sound sector of the West Antarctic Rift System (WARS) served as the primary local volcanic dust source during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) in the Allan Hills ice core records.

The McMurdo Sound sector of the West Antarctic Rift System (WARS) served as the primary local volcanic dust source during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) in the Allan Hills ice core records.

This is identified through geochemical fingerprints (Sr-Nd isotopes, rare earth elements, and particle characteristics) showing young volcanic material distinct from distant South American dust dominant in glacial periods.

The McMurdo Volcanic Group comprises alkaline volcanic rocks (basalts, trachytes, phonolites, and related rocks) erupted over the last ~20โ€“25 million years (mainly Miocene to present) in the Ross Sea region. These are linked to the West Antarctic Rift System, a major extensional tectonic feature.

The West Antarctic Rift System features thinned crust, high heat flow, and widespread (often subglacial) volcanism. In the McMurdo sector, volcanism is bimodal and alkaline, with exposed rocks on the rift shoulder (Transantarctic Mountains) and islands. Aeromagnetic data suggest extensive buried volcanics beneath the Ross Sea and WAIS.

Researchers analyzed dust trapped in an Antarctic ice core from the Allan Hills Blue Ice Area. Dust composition serves as a fingerprint of its source:

During the colder Penultimate Glacial (MIS 6): Dust was mostly from distant South American sources, carried by winds over long distances.

During the warmer Last Interglacial (MIS 5e): The dust shifted to include more coarse particles with young volcanic material from the McMurdo Sound sector of the West Antarctic Rift System and nearby ice-free outcrops in the Transantarctic Mountains. This indicates much closer, local Antarctic sources.

This change implies that parts of the Ross Sea region were exposed (ice-free or with reduced ice cover), allowing local dust to be mobilized and deposited.

Earth system model simulations support this: loss of the Ross Ice Shelf and a diminished WAIS would alter winds and precipitation, strengthening transport of proximal Antarctic dust.

The WAIS is marine-based and vulnerable to ocean warming; it is currently losing mass, especially in areas like Thwaites Glacier. This paleoclimate evidence adds to concerns about potential irreversible retreat under continued warming, though exact timing, rates, and full extent during MIS 5e are still being refined. Other studies (e.g., on sediments and models) provide supporting but not identical pictures of past variability.

A new study published in Nature Geoscience (May 2026) providing evidence that the Ross Ice Shelf and parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) were significantly smaller or retreated during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, ~129,000โ€“116,000 years ago).

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Ancient dust points to retreat of West Antarctic Ice Sheet during last warm period

The evidence strongly supports significant retreat or diminution of the Ross Ice Shelf and substantial parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) during the Last Interglacial (LIG/MIS 5e, ~129โ€“116 ka), though not necessarily a complete, uniform collapse across the entire WAIS.

The 2026 Dust Provenance Study (Nature Geoscience)

This is the most direct recent evidence for the Ross sector. Researchers examined a high-resolution dust record from an ice core at the Allan Hills Blue Ice Area (East Antarctica, near the Ross Sea margin).

MIS 6 (Penultimate Glacial, colder):

Dust dominated by fine particles from distant South American sources, consistent with extensive ice cover and long-range atmospheric transport.

MIS 5e (LIG, warmer):

Pronounced shift to coarser particles with a strong young volcanic signature from local Antarctic sources โ€” specifically the McMurdo Sound sector of the West Antarctic Rift System and exposed Transantarctic Mountain outcrops.

This requires ice-free or greatly reduced ice conditions in the Ross Sea region, exposing local bedrock and volcanic areas to wind erosion. Earth system model simulations reproduce the observed dust changes only when the Ross Ice Shelf is lost (or greatly diminished) and the WAIS is reduced, which reorganizes near-surface winds, increases precipitation along an exposed coastline, and enhances proximal dust transport.

The shift appears as early as ~134 ka (before peak LIG warmth), suggesting early sensitivity during the deglacial transition.

Lead authors (Austin Carter, Sarah Aarons, and colleagues) conclude this points to little or no Ross Ice Shelf and a diminished WAIS, contributing to elevated global sea levels.

Broader Evidence

Sea-level context:

LIG global mean sea level was ~5โ€“10 m higher than today, with Antarctic contributions estimated up to ~5.7 m (peaking early). Greenland and thermal expansion account for part, but Antarctic (especially WAIS) loss is required to close the budget in many reconstructions.

Genomic evidence (2023):

Gene flow in circum-Antarctic octopus (Pareledone turqueti) requires complete WAIS collapse creating trans-Antarctic seaways during the LIG (or earlier interglacials like MIS 11 in broader context).

Contrasting Ronne/Filchner sector (2025 Nature study):

Sea-salt proxies from the Skytrain Ice Rise core (adjacent to Ronne Ice Shelf, Weddell Sea sector) indicate the Ronne Ice Shelf largely survived at near-modern or greater extent during most of the LIG. WAIS mass loss was significant (perhaps ~half modern mass in some estimates) but partial and heterogeneous โ€” more pronounced in Ross/Amundsen sectors than Weddell.

This heterogeneity makes sense: the WAIS is not monolithic.

Marine-based sectors grounded below sea level (e.g., near Thwaites/Pine Island and Ross) are more vulnerable to ocean-driven melt and marine ice-sheet instability than others.

Implications

Temperatures:

LIG Antarctic temperatures were warmer than today (regional estimates vary; global ~0.5โ€“1.5ยฐC above pre-industrial).

Relevance to today:

The WAIS is already losing mass, particularly in the Amundsen Sea. The Ross Ice Shelf buttresses significant ice; its potential weakening is a concern. These paleo-records show the system can retreat substantially under modest sustained warming, supporting models of potential irreversibility once thresholds are crossed.

Uncertainties:

Exact timing, rates, and total volume loss are still refined. Not all proxies agree perfectly on full collapse vs. major retreat. Ongoing drilling (e.g., SWAIS2C beneath Ross Ice Shelf) will provide more sediment records.

The dust study provides compelling new proxy evidence for Ross Ice Shelf loss and WAIS diminution in that sector during the LIG, aligning with sea-level, modeling, and biological data.

Combined with the Ronne sector evidence, it paints a picture of major but regionally variable WAIS retreat โ€” enough to contribute meaningfully to multi-meter sea-level rise, but not total disappearance everywhere. This is a critical analog for assessing future risks.

Published:  Nature Geoscience

DOI: DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01988-1

Provided: Columbia Climate School

Authors: Austin J. Carter, 
Sarah M. Aarons, 
Joseph C. Schnaubelt, 
Clay R. Tabor, 
John A. Higgins, 
Sarah A. Shackleton, 
Jenna A. Epifanio, 
Jacob D. Morgan, 
Janne M. Koornneef, 
Gareth R. Davies, 
Paolo Gabrielli, 
Alissa Choi, 
Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, 
Edward J. Brook, 
Douglas S. Introne, 
Julia C. Marks-Peterson, 
Johannes Sutter & 
Lindsey Davidge 

Abstract

The Last Interglacial, or Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (129โ€“116 thousand years ago (ka)) was one of Earthโ€™s most recent relatively warm intervals.

Global mean sea levels are estimated to have been 5โ€“10โ€‰m higher during MIS 5e than present; however, the potential contributors to higher sea levels during this interval, such as the loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, remain poorly constrained.

Here we present a high-resolution record of dust composition from an ice core at the Allan Hills Blue Ice Area, Antarctica spanning the Penultimate Glacial (MIS 6) through MIS 5e.

Geochemical data show that MIS 6 dust is dominantly sourced from South America, whereas MIS 5e dust contains young volcanic material sourced from the McMurdo Sound sector of the West Antarctic Rift System and nearby, ice-free outcrops of the Transantarctic Mountains.

Earth system model simulations show that loss of the Ross Ice Shelf and diminished West Antarctic Ice Sheet extent during MIS 5e would increase near-surface wind speeds and precipitation along an exposed Ross Sea coastline, strengthening dust transport from proximal Antarctic sources.

The agreement between the modelled circulation changes and the observed provenance shift driven by changes in wind and surface exposure suggests ice-free conditions in the Ross Sea during MIS 5e, with possible West Antarctic contributions to the elevated sea levels of this period.

Net Zero Blitz Risks Exporting Britainโ€™s Greatest Industrial Asset, North Sea Experts Warn

The North Sea-focused industry survey warning that UK government policy under Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is accelerating capital flight and skills drain from Britain’s mature oil and gas basin.

The North Sea-focused industry survey warning that UK government policy under Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is accelerating capital flight and skills drain from Britain’s mature oil and gas basin.

The North Sea is described as one of the UK’s greatest industrial assets due to its decades-built workforce, engineering expertise, supply chains, and infrastructure โ€” skills transferable to offshore wind, carbon capture, hydrogen, and decommissioning. However, polarized policy, high taxation, licensing restrictions, and regulatory uncertainty are pushing investment, jobs, and expertise abroad (e.g., to Norway in the same geological basin).

Crackdown on new exploration:

No new licences for exploring undeveloped fields or new areas. This bans frontier exploration to accelerate the shift toward clean energy. In May 2026, the government advanced the Energy Independence Bill to enshrine this ban in law, making it harder for future governments to reverse.

New drilling continues:

Existing licensed fields operate for their full economic life. Incremental projects (“tie-backs”) linked to existing infrastructure are allowed under a pragmatic framework if they meet criteria like lower emissions intensity than imports, use existing platforms/pipelines, and support UK supply chains/jobs. This avoids major new infrastructure while maximizing remaining reserves.

Mad Miliband described this as a “managed transition”

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Ed Miliband’s Net Zero blitz driving investment of ‘Britain’s greatest industrial asset’ abroad, experts warn

It comes as Labour pledges to ban any new licences for oil and gas drilling licenses to alleviate ‘the worsening climate crisis’

By Matt Gibson

The North Sea is one of Britain’s โ€œgreatest industrial assetsโ€ โ€” but an increasingly polarised fight over its future is driving investment abroad, experts have warned. GB NEWS has the story.

It means the sector is suffering a brain drain of expertise, even though the very same skills are needed to drive the renewables market, as Labour pledges to ban any new licences for oil and gas drilling to alleviate “the worsening climate crisisโ€.

Research revealed more than nine in ten companies believe the North Sea has a viable long-term future, but only if Whitehall โ€œintroduces the right fiscal and regulatory frameworksโ€.

However, after the Energy Independence Bill was announced in the Kingโ€™s Speech earlier this month, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband stated: โ€œAfter the second fossil fuel crisis in half a decade, our clean power mission is the only way to bring down bills for good and take back control of our energy.โ€

Drilling at Rosebank, the UK’s largest untapped oil field, and Jackdaw, a giant gas field, has been stalled after legal objections on climate grounds. Both are licenced fields, but the final decision falls to Mr Miliband.

His Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has repeatedly insisted more North Sea drilling will not bring down bills because the price of oil and gas is set by the global market. Meanwhile, North Sea operators continue to face a “windfall tax” introduced by the Conservatives after the war in Ukraine, meaning they pay out 78 per cent of profits.

In its Energy Transition Report, Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce (AGCC) warned the country was in danger of โ€œaccelerating the decline of the North Sea unnecessarilyโ€. Opponents of North Sea drilling have argued there simply is not enough oil left to justify further exploration, although the offshore sector believes there could be 7.5 billion barrels still recoverable โ€“ almost double the Government’s estimates.

The Energy Transition report found 93 per cent of businesses either agree or strongly agree that there is still a future for oil and gas activity in the North Sea with the right frameworks in place. This finding alone โ€œdirectly challenges the growing political narrative that the future of the basin is already decidedโ€, says the AGCC.

Russell Borthwick, Chief Executive of the AGCC, said: โ€œFor several years now, the dominant political narrative has increasingly suggested that the future of the North Sea is already decided. This report tells a very different story.โ€

The report foreword warns: โ€œItโ€™s clear that energy security needs to be at the centre of national economic policy. Simultaneously, increasingly polarised debate surrounding the future of the North Sea continues to create uncertainty across investors, operators and the wider supply chain.โ€

The report, launched this morning in Aberdeen, reflected the views of 121 organisations linked to the sector, including seven North Sea operators. Respondents predicted that, in less than five years, domestic revenues will be overtaken by overseas markets, such as Norway, as the main source of income.

Fewer than one in ten believed that the UK would have โ€œsufficient skills to deliver its energy transition ambitionsโ€ if current trends continued. Nearly nine in ten said new licences should be granted โ€œwhere operators can demonstrate lower emissions than imported alternatives and deliver greater UK economic valueโ€.

Read the full story here.

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UK-Norway North Sea Investment Flows: Stark Divergence in the Same Basin (2025-2026 Outlook)

The UK and Norwegian sectors of the North Sea share the same geological basin but show dramatically different investment trajectories due to policy, fiscal regimes, licensing approaches, and regulatory environments.

Norway: Sustained high activity.

Sustained high activity. In 2025, oil & gas investments reached record levels (~NOK 269 billion / ~US$26-27 billion). For 2026, estimates are around NOK 230-256 billion (~US$22-26 billion), with robust development spending (~US$20 billion). Norway maintains strong exploration (dozens of wells planned) and project sanctions.

UK: Sharp decline.

Upstream capex expected to fall below US$3.5 billion in 2026 (lowest in real terms since the 1970s). NSTA projections show E&P capex dropping significantly over 2026-2031. No major new sanctions recently; exploration near zero.

Longer-term (to 2030):

Norway projected to attract ~$43 billion in E&P investment vs. ~$11.3 billion for the UK.

Annual averages highlight the gap: Norway ~$19-20 billion/year vs. UK ~$5 billion/year.

Industry reports and expert commentary (Wood Mackenzie, OEUK, AGCC) note capital flight and skills migration toward Norway. Operators shift investment to the Norwegian side of the shared basin where returns are more attractive.

This risks hollowing out the UK supply chain and workforce expertise, even as skills are highly transferable to renewables/CCS.

UK production is in steeper structural decline; Norway has maintained or slightly increased output in recent years with slower projected falls.

Investment is flowing disproportionately to Norway due to more permissive licensing, fiscal stability, and pro-development policy.

The UKโ€™s approach accelerates the basinโ€™s natural decline, while Norway mitigates it.

Offshore wind confusion: Refunding a lease is not a buyout

The Trump administration is terminating the existing site leases for monster offshore wind development projects by refunding the lease payments already made. The wind-loving Democrats are nonsensically calling this a โ€œbuyoutโ€ supposedly done at taxpayer expense.

Of course, this costs the taxpayers nothing because the money comes from the developers who are simply getting it back.

From CFACT

By David Wojick

The Trump administration is terminating the existing site leases for monster offshore wind development projects by refunding the lease payments already made. The wind-loving Democrats are nonsensically calling this a โ€œbuyoutโ€ supposedly done at taxpayer expense.

Of course, this costs the taxpayers nothing because the money comes from the developers who are simply getting it back. The taxpayers may even benefit from these near billion-dollar deals depending on how the Feds use the money while they have it, which can be many years in some cases.

Here are the two big deals so far:

TotalEnergies (March): The Interior Department agreed to a near-$1 billion reimbursement to cancel leases off New York and North Carolina. The French company is redirecting these funds to a Texas LNG export facility.

Ocean Winds (April): The administration reached an $885 million deal with a joint venture between Franceโ€™s ENGIE and Portugalโ€™s EDP to terminate the Bluepoint Wind (New York/New Jersey) and Golden State Wind (California) projects. The funds are to be redirected into oil and gas development including LNG.

Of course, there was an immediate outcry from the wind-loving left. Several top-ranking House and Senate Democrats opened investigations and sent letters of inquiry but, so far, nothing has come of that. Various legal objections have been posited.

In Congressional jargon, the top minority party member of a committee is called the ranking member, all Democrats in todayโ€™s Congress. The ranking members of the House Judiciary and House Natural Resources Committees sent a joint inquiry to TotalEnergies. (One word with a capital in the middle is their goofy idea, not a typo.)

The evergreen Sen. Whitehouse, ranking member of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, also opened an investigation. Ranking members have little authority, so these actions may mean little for now.

In addition, and to no oneโ€™s surprise, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Ed Markey sent a letter to the U.S. Department of the Interior questioning the TotalEnergies deal.

California also got into the act. The California Energy Commission is investigating the deal with Golden State Wind. The commission issued a subpoena to Ocean Winds seeking documents in what it claimed were โ€‹โ€œbackroom dealsโ€ involving taxpayer dollars.

Given the arcane intricacy of U.S. administrative law, it is always possible that these deals will get stopped. But for now, it is likely that more deals will be done.

The Interior Departmentโ€™s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has awarded nearly three dozen offshore wind leases since July 2013. The deals to date are for some of the biggest leases, so a very good start, but there is still a long way to go.

The wind-lovers have universally referred to these deals as โ€œbuyoutsโ€ and โ€œpayoffs,โ€ but you cannot buy someone out or pay them off with their own money. A refund is not a buyout. If I buy concert tickets and the concert is cancelled, refunding my money is certainly not buying me out or paying me off.

Word has it that the Feds told the developers to take the deal or they would simply cancel the leases, letting the developers sue to try to get their money back, someday. The Feds have a strong lever here which explains their getting promises from the developers that they would reinvest the refund in oil and gas development.

Whoever came up with this leverage deserves a lot of credit. The President is a big-time, long-time deal maker so maybe he did it.

If Congress changes hands in the coming elections, a lot of this resistance could become much more serious with Democrats chairing committees. Or something could happen sooner than that, and there are a lot of offshore wind leases still to go.

Stay tuned to CFACT as this deal making drama plays out. It is not a done deal.

Heartland Institute Experts React to President Trumpโ€™s Social Media Post About UN Retreating from Extremist Climate Models

โ€œThe United Nations TOP Climate Committee just admitted that its own projections (RCP8.5) were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! For far too long Climate Activism has been used by Dumocrats to scare Americans, push horrible Energy Polices, and fund BILLIONS into their bogus research programs.โ€

From ClimateRealism

By Heartland Institute

Editorsโ€™ Note: Multiple mainstream media outlets such as The Washington Post, Bloomberg, Fox News, among others, have reported on the retirement of the worst-case emissions scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, from UN climate committee analyses, and President Trumpโ€™s reaction to it. This is a great victory for Climate Realism, as realists like those writing here have long explianed that RCP 8.5 is unrealistic, likely impossibly, and used exclusively to generate terrifying headlines. It will not be missed.

SCHAUMBURG, IL (May 19, 2026) โ€“ President Trump last weekend on Truth Social said โ€œgood riddanceโ€ to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeโ€™s (IPCC) most-alarmist climate model called RCP 8.5. Trump wrote: โ€œThe United Nations TOP Climate Committee just admitted that its own projections (RCP8.5) were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! For far too long Climate Activism has been used by Dumocrats to scare Americans, push horrible Energy Polices, and fund BILLIONS into their bogus research programs.โ€

For years, the IPCC has relied heavily on a global warming scenario that assumed energy absorption in the atmosphere would reach 8.5 watts per square meter by 2100. This worst-case scenario has been used in countless academic papers and the media to predict a climate catastrophe soon if the use of fossil fuels is not dramatically reduced. The IPCC announced in April that this outcome has become โ€œimplausible.โ€

The following statements from environment and climate experts at The Heartland Institute โ€“ a free-market think tank โ€“ may be used for attribution. For more comments, refer to the contact information below. To book a Heartland guest on your program, please contact Executive Vice President and Director of Communications Jim Lakely at media@heartland.org or call/text 312-731-9364.

โ€œPresident Trump is RIGHT, RIGHT, RIGHT! RCP 8.5 is and always has been a scam. We at Heartland have long critiqued RCP 8.5 noting it was implausible if not impossible, yet academics kept using it in hundreds of supposedly peer reviewed studies. They used it because it produced alarming results that they and the climate activists then used to demand both more money, for research, and an end to fossil fuel use.

โ€œNow what Heartland has said all along has been confirmed. RCP 8.5 has been withdrawn by the IPCC, citing the very reasons weโ€™ve touted for more than a decade. Those hundreds of papers pushing false alarmism should be rescinded with prejudice.

โ€œItโ€™s time to base policy on real science and data not computer-generated end of the world scenarios.โ€

H. Sterling Burnett, Ph.D.
Director, Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy
The Heartland Institute
hsburnett@heartland.org

โ€œRCP 8.5 became the climate establishmentโ€™s favorite tool because it generated the most frightening headlines, not because it reflected realistic energy or economic trends. For years, policymakers, media outlets, and activists treated this extreme scenario as โ€˜business as usual,โ€™ even though it assumed wildly unrealistic coal consumption, stagnant technological progress, and population trajectories detached from observed reality.

โ€œThe damage from this manufactured panic extends far beyond climate science. RCP 8.5 was used to justify costly regulations, energy restrictions, attacks on reliable fossil fuels, and endless taxpayer funding for speculative research built on worst-case assumptions. Entire industries of climate litigation, ESG investing, and government intervention leaned heavily on projections that even many modelers privately acknowledged were improbable.

โ€œPresident Trump deserves credit for calling attention to what many independent analysts have argued for years: public policy should not be driven by exaggerated computer simulations masquerading as settled science. If climate researchers want to restore public trust, they should begin by acknowledging how extensively RCP 8.5 distorted both scientific communication and public debate.โ€

Anthony Watts
Senior Fellow
The Heartland Institute
awatts@heartland.org

โ€œPresident Trump is absolutely right to celebrate the downfall of RCP 8.5. It was never an accurate model of the future.

โ€œNow comes the next problem: There are hundreds if not thousands of studies in journals spanning biology, medicine, atmospheric science, and others, that used RCP 8.5 as their high end and even business-as-usual emissions scenario. These studies claimed this scenario represented a realistic forecast that would lead to imminent species destruction, human deaths, and increasing natural disasters, none of which came to pass, and never were going to happen at all. All the most extreme studies were breathlessly reported in the media as though they were inevitable unless the world made extreme lifestyle changes to justify authoritarian government measures to crack down on farmers and energy producers.

โ€œIt was always nonsense and it is fantastic that President Trump advocates for good science over agenda-driven modeling.โ€

Linnea Lueken
Senior Fellow
Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy
The Heartland Institute
llueken@heartland.org

โ€œWhy does it take the president of the United States to spell out today the decades-long scams of the many impossible scenarios of future atmospheric carbon dioxide planted by the UN IPCC? How can a future insisting of burning five times more coal than available in proven reserves be even entertained in the first place? President Trump should tell all the crony โ€˜scientistsโ€™ and fear-mongering science organizations: โ€˜You are all fired!โ€™ More importantly, all their scientific research funding must be immediately terminated to prevent further thefts from the American taxpayers.โ€

Willie Soon, Ph.D.
Astrophysicist and geoscientist
CERES Science
Policy Advisor, The Heartland Institute
media@heartland.org

โ€œThe computer models upon which the RCP 8.5 conclusions were drawn are highly flawed. First and foremost, they assume that carbon dioxide is the principal driver of recent climate change, ignoring or improperly assessing natural drivers to the system. These include solar variability, cloud and water vapor feedback loops, and changes in oceanic geothermal forcing. Second, they assumed exponential growth in coal use that exceeded known reserves.

โ€œThe highly implausible products of these computer โ€˜ensemblesโ€™ were then transmitted to the scientific community via a biased system of communication, the โ€˜peer-reviewโ€™ process. Peer review lends itself to groupthink by rewarding certain perspectives while excluding others. In the case of global warming, promulgating causal mechanisms that can be taxed and/or regulated โ€“ i.e., anthropogenic emissions of weak greenhouse gases โ€“ are the preferred drivers.

โ€œIโ€™m glad to see that the president has finally put an end to this nonsense. Itโ€™s time for us to follow the science and stop following the money.โ€

Arthur Viterito, Ph.D.
Policy Advisor
The Heartland Institute
media@heartland.org

The Heartland Institute is a national nonprofit organization founded in 1984 and headquartered in Schaumburg, Illinois. Its mission is to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems. For more information, visit our website or call 312/377-4000.