The North Sea-focused industry survey warning that UK government policy under Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is accelerating capital flight and skills drain from Britain’s mature oil and gas basin.

The North Sea is described as one of the UK’s greatest industrial assets due to its decades-built workforce, engineering expertise, supply chains, and infrastructure — skills transferable to offshore wind, carbon capture, hydrogen, and decommissioning. However, polarized policy, high taxation, licensing restrictions, and regulatory uncertainty are pushing investment, jobs, and expertise abroad (e.g., to Norway in the same geological basin).

Crackdown on new exploration:

No new licences for exploring undeveloped fields or new areas. This bans frontier exploration to accelerate the shift toward clean energy. In May 2026, the government advanced the Energy Independence Bill to enshrine this ban in law, making it harder for future governments to reverse.

New drilling continues:

Existing licensed fields operate for their full economic life. Incremental projects (“tie-backs”) linked to existing infrastructure are allowed under a pragmatic framework if they meet criteria like lower emissions intensity than imports, use existing platforms/pipelines, and support UK supply chains/jobs. This avoids major new infrastructure while maximizing remaining reserves.

Mad Miliband described this as a “managed transition”

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Ed Miliband’s Net Zero blitz driving investment of ‘Britain’s greatest industrial asset’ abroad, experts warn

It comes as Labour pledges to ban any new licences for oil and gas drilling licenses to alleviate ‘the worsening climate crisis’

By Matt Gibson

The North Sea is one of Britain’s “greatest industrial assets” — but an increasingly polarised fight over its future is driving investment abroad, experts have warned. GB NEWS has the story.

It means the sector is suffering a brain drain of expertise, even though the very same skills are needed to drive the renewables market, as Labour pledges to ban any new licences for oil and gas drilling to alleviate “the worsening climate crisis”.

Research revealed more than nine in ten companies believe the North Sea has a viable long-term future, but only if Whitehall “introduces the right fiscal and regulatory frameworks”.

However, after the Energy Independence Bill was announced in the King’s Speech earlier this month, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband stated: “After the second fossil fuel crisis in half a decade, our clean power mission is the only way to bring down bills for good and take back control of our energy.”

Drilling at Rosebank, the UK’s largest untapped oil field, and Jackdaw, a giant gas field, has been stalled after legal objections on climate grounds. Both are licenced fields, but the final decision falls to Mr Miliband.

His Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has repeatedly insisted more North Sea drilling will not bring down bills because the price of oil and gas is set by the global market. Meanwhile, North Sea operators continue to face a “windfall tax” introduced by the Conservatives after the war in Ukraine, meaning they pay out 78 per cent of profits.

In its Energy Transition Report, Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce (AGCC) warned the country was in danger of “accelerating the decline of the North Sea unnecessarily”. Opponents of North Sea drilling have argued there simply is not enough oil left to justify further exploration, although the offshore sector believes there could be 7.5 billion barrels still recoverable – almost double the Government’s estimates.

The Energy Transition report found 93 per cent of businesses either agree or strongly agree that there is still a future for oil and gas activity in the North Sea with the right frameworks in place. This finding alone “directly challenges the growing political narrative that the future of the basin is already decided”, says the AGCC.

Russell Borthwick, Chief Executive of the AGCC, said: “For several years now, the dominant political narrative has increasingly suggested that the future of the North Sea is already decided. This report tells a very different story.”

The report foreword warns: “It’s clear that energy security needs to be at the centre of national economic policy. Simultaneously, increasingly polarised debate surrounding the future of the North Sea continues to create uncertainty across investors, operators and the wider supply chain.”

The report, launched this morning in Aberdeen, reflected the views of 121 organisations linked to the sector, including seven North Sea operators. Respondents predicted that, in less than five years, domestic revenues will be overtaken by overseas markets, such as Norway, as the main source of income.

Fewer than one in ten believed that the UK would have “sufficient skills to deliver its energy transition ambitions” if current trends continued. Nearly nine in ten said new licences should be granted “where operators can demonstrate lower emissions than imported alternatives and deliver greater UK economic value”.

Read the full story here.

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UK-Norway North Sea Investment Flows: Stark Divergence in the Same Basin (2025-2026 Outlook)

The UK and Norwegian sectors of the North Sea share the same geological basin but show dramatically different investment trajectories due to policy, fiscal regimes, licensing approaches, and regulatory environments.

Norway: Sustained high activity.

Sustained high activity. In 2025, oil & gas investments reached record levels (~NOK 269 billion / ~US$26-27 billion). For 2026, estimates are around NOK 230-256 billion (~US$22-26 billion), with robust development spending (~US$20 billion). Norway maintains strong exploration (dozens of wells planned) and project sanctions.

UK: Sharp decline.

Upstream capex expected to fall below US$3.5 billion in 2026 (lowest in real terms since the 1970s). NSTA projections show E&P capex dropping significantly over 2026-2031. No major new sanctions recently; exploration near zero.

Longer-term (to 2030):

Norway projected to attract ~$43 billion in E&P investment vs. ~$11.3 billion for the UK.

Annual averages highlight the gap: Norway ~$19-20 billion/year vs. UK ~$5 billion/year.

Industry reports and expert commentary (Wood Mackenzie, OEUK, AGCC) note capital flight and skills migration toward Norway. Operators shift investment to the Norwegian side of the shared basin where returns are more attractive.

This risks hollowing out the UK supply chain and workforce expertise, even as skills are highly transferable to renewables/CCS.

UK production is in steeper structural decline; Norway has maintained or slightly increased output in recent years with slower projected falls.

Investment is flowing disproportionately to Norway due to more permissive licensing, fiscal stability, and pro-development policy.

The UK’s approach accelerates the basin’s natural decline, while Norway mitigates it.