From Apocalypse to โ€œOopsโ€ โ€“ The Emily Litella Climate Moment has Arrived

Michael Baroneโ€™s โ€œWe Have Reached the Emily Litella Moment on Climate Changeโ€ published at Rasmussen Reports, reads like confirmation of something many of us have been documenting for years: the climate catastrophe narrative is not collapsing because of denial or politics, but because it has finally run out of evidentiary runway.

A woman speaking with a distressed expression, holding a piece of paper, with the text 'Never Mind' in bold red letters above her.

From Watts Up With That?

By Anthony Watts

Michael Baroneโ€™s โ€œWe Have Reached the Emily Litella Moment on Climate Changeโ€ published at Rasmussen Reports, reads like confirmation of something many of us have been documenting for years: the climate catastrophe narrative is not collapsing because of denial or politics, but because it has finally run out of evidentiary runway. Barone gives this reckoning a memorable cultural hook, likening todayโ€™s retreat from apocalyptic certainty to Emily Litellaโ€™s sheepish โ€œNever mindโ€ โ€” the moment when an overheated argument quietly dissolves under the weight of reality.

What makes Baroneโ€™s column especially notable is that it arrives amid a broader fracture in the climate narrative โ€” a fracture I recently described as โ€œThe Week Climate Catastrophism Lost its Grip.โ€ In just a few days, voices once considered untouchable within polite discourse began conceding what skeptics have long argued: that claims of imminent collapse were never as solid as advertised.

Barone points to this shift by highlighting figures such as Bill Gates and Ted Nordhaus, both now openly acknowledging that climate change is not an existential threat. Gatesโ€™ admission that climate change โ€œwill not lead to humanityโ€™s demiseโ€ is particularly telling, not because it is radical, but because it is mundane โ€” an implicit walk-back from decades of rhetoric that framed warming as a civilizational endgame.

That same recalibration was on vivid display when Nordhaus himself wrote, โ€œI no longer believe this hyperbole,โ€ repudiating the catastrophic projections he once helped popularize. Barone treats this not as an isolated conversion, but as evidence that the underlying models and assumptions simply failed to deliver their promised disasters. From a WUWT perspective, this is the predictable outcome of overconfident modeling, exaggerated feedbacks, and a refusal to reconcile forecasts with observed data.

What Barone captures particularly well โ€” and what aligns closely with my own op-ed โ€” is how gatekeeping has shaped the debate. For years, dissent was caricatured as ignorance, even as emeritus scientists like Richard Lindzen and William Happer were sidelined despite decades of experience in atmospheric physics. When those same scientists explain, calmly and publicly, that climate sensitivity is uncertain and extreme-weather trends remain unalarming, the spell breaks. The problem for the catastrophists is scale: the old filters no longer work.

Barone also nails the quasi-religious tone that climate advocacy has adopted. Rituals of atonement, moral absolutism, and hostility toward heresy have replaced empirical skepticism. At WUWT, weโ€™ve long argued that once science becomes a belief system, it stops correcting itself. Baroneโ€™s comparison of climate activism to secular religion is not hyperbole โ€” it is an observation borne out by how critics are treated and how failed predictions are quietly memory-holed.

Perhaps the most important overlap between Baroneโ€™s essay and my own analysis is the emphasis on adaptation and resilience. Nordhausโ€™ acknowledgment that climate-related mortality has plummeted despite modest warming reinforces a point that catastrophism cannot explain away: human prosperity, technology, and infrastructure matter far more than model-driven temperature scenarios. As Barone suggests, the public has begun to notice that the promised disasters never quite arrive โ€” and that each new โ€œcrisisโ€ sounds suspiciously like the last.

In that sense, the Emily Litella moment isnโ€™t a sudden revelation; itโ€™s a slow recognition that the emperor has been without clothes for some time. The climate movement didnโ€™t gain certainty โ€” it gained better marketing. Now, as insiders quietly say โ€œnever mind,โ€ the narrative loses its authority.

Baroneโ€™s column is valuable not because it breaks new scientific ground, but because it signals a cultural shift. When mainstream commentators begin conceding what skeptical scientists and analysts have argued all along โ€” that uncertainty is real, impacts are overstated, and catastrophe was oversold โ€” the debate finally moves out of fear and back toward evidence.

If there is a genuine tipping point here, it isnโ€™t measured in degrees Celsius. Itโ€™s measured in how willing people are to question claims that demand obedience but deliver exaggeration. On that front, Baroneโ€™s essay is less a eulogy than a marker โ€” a sign that the long-delayed โ€œnever mindโ€ has finally arrived.

Katesbridge DCNN9265 โ€“ The โ€œCool Capitalโ€ of Northern Ireland. More Met Office Manipulation on a massiveย scale.

Katesbridge is a small hamlet with a quoted population of just 150 people. It lies approximately 20 miles southwest of Belfast and 12 miles north east of Newry in County Down. The weather station is not in the hamlet of Katesbridge itself, rather it is about 1.5 miles to the east south east in a notably rural spot. The issue with this site is that it lies in a location that the Met Office expressly states is โ€œUndersirableโ€ but then still goes on to proclaim this as a โ€œClimate Averagesโ€ site representative of a wide area. And it certainly does produce some very interesting figures.

Aerial view of the weather station in Katesbridge, Northern Ireland, surrounded by fields and rural landscape.

From Tallbloke’s Talkshop

Byย Ray Sanders

A satellite view of a rural area showing a small building marked with a red pin, surrounded by fields and roads.
54.29676 -6.11109 Met Office CIMOย Assessed Class 4 Temperature records from 2/8/1993

Katesbridge is a small hamlet with a quoted population of just 150 people. It lies approximately 20 miles southwest of Belfast and 12 miles north east of Newry in County Down. The weather station is not in the hamlet of Katesbridge itself, rather it is about 1.5 miles to the east south east in a notably rural spot. The issue with this site is that it lies in a location that the Met Office expressly states is โ€œUndersirableโ€ but then still goes on to proclaim this as a โ€œClimate Averagesโ€ site representative of a wide area. And it certainly does produce some very interesting figures.

Although Tim Channon focused on World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) numbered sites in his original Surface Stations Project he also reviewed some of the more notable non WMO sites โ€“ Katesbridge was one of them.

Aerial view of Katesbridge, Northern Ireland, showing the layout of fields and buildings with measurement markers.

His report and the many and very detailed comments below it are well worth studying for the valuable local content added. Importantly, Tim felt this could well be a Class 1 rated site and he rarely called things wrong as time and subsequent Met Office ratings have shown. Revisiting it myself I could not initially see how this site could be rated at anything lower than Class 2 and agreed with Tim that the site has class 1 potential solely based on distances from buildings, roads etc and ground cover. Katesbridge appeared to fall into that category of Drummond Castle, Levens Hall and Stowe amongst many other rural sites that are marked down by the Met Office for no immediate visual reason.

However, looking deeper into this particular site brings up many valid claims that it is in a significant โ€œfrost hollowโ€. What initially does the Met Office claim about frost hollows and weather stations.

A list of conditions that classify a weather station as an undesirable site for accurate measurements, highlighting factors such as the warming effect of buildings, shading effects of trees, frost hollows, and topography.

There are numerous sources of evidence that Katesbridge is in a major frost hollow.

An article headline discussing Katesbridge's cold temperatures and frost hollows in Northern Ireland.

The BBC regularly runsย articles on Katesbridgeย whenever there is a cold snap.

Headline from a news article about Katesbridge breaking a cold record, dated 25 May 2021.

Clearly Katesbridge gets cold due to known effects. The weather station itself is a fully equipped synoptic site which was originally just a rain gauge location later enhanced for immediate forecasting purposes. This makes perfect sense in that, in temperature terms, freezing events are critical to forecasting as they represent dangers in multitudes of ways from agriculture to transport and many others. Being a degree or two out on mild days is really no problem but missing a frost event can have major consequences.

It is perfectly right and proper for a site specific to local conditions to be in Katesbridge beyond any doubt. What is very strange is to use such micro-climate readings as representing a wider area. This practise is akin to reversing the walled kitchen garden effect where every attempt is made to avoid naturally occurring frosts. Then again the Met Office has form in using very many walled gardens and still installs weather stations in such inappropriate sites even in the recent 21st Century.

The Met Office says Katesbridge is โ€Undesirableโ€ but then assess the site by their own (Roy Spencer PhD approved!) unique system as the second best possible category of โ€œGOODโ€ as disclosed under Freedom of information request.

A weather station assessment table displaying various locations and their temperature screening scores, including Katesbridge rated 'GOOD'.

Conversely the WMO is quite unequivocal about the use of micro-climates including frost hollows for climate recording purposes. From Grok AI regarding WMO Commission for Instruments for Meteorological Observations guidance:

โ€œKey Relevant Guidance

In Part I, Chapter 2 (Measurement of Temperature), the guide emphasizes site representativeness and states that stations should be sited to avoid locations where cold air drainage leads to unrepresentative low minimum temperatures. Specifically:

  • Sites in small valleys, hollows, depressions, or basin-like topography should be avoided because cold, dense air pools there on calm, clear nights, causing significantly lower temperatures than in surrounding areas (often by several degrees).
  • Such locations produce microclimatic biases that make data less representative of the broader regional climate.
  • Preferred sites are on level ground, gently sloping terrain, or plateaus where air drainage is free and temperatures are more homogeneous with the larger area.

This aligns closely with national guidelines (e.g., UK Met Office), which explicitly label frost hollows as โ€œundesirableโ€ for the same reasons.โ€œ

There is no uncertainty here, frost hollow sites should not be used for climate reporting in the same way as any known micro climate of any type should not be used. Seems, however, the Met Office did not get that memo. To further quote AI (as most budding Climate Science under graduates no doubt will) is the following quite emphatic statement.

โ€œThe CIMO guidelines clearly advise against using potential frost hollows for routine climate reporting data due to non-representative extremes in minimum temperatures.โ€

So, then we have this:

Search bar interface displaying 'Katesbridge' with a list of nearest climate stations in County Down.

Yes, the exact type of site not to be used for climate reporting purposes was very specifically chosen by Met Office chief scientistsย Daniel Hollisย andย Matthew Perryย to compile theseย climate averages listings. Odd how the UK Government Ministerย Lord Vallanceย was happy to sign a letter claiming these climate average and โ€œhistoricโ€ figures are not really used, instead just HadCrut which is directly derived from them is used. {Presumably such โ€œlocation specific, long-term averagesโ€ pages are just for โ€œEntertainmentโ€ value?}

A research paper titled 'The Development of a New Set of Long-term Climate Averages for the UK,' detailing climate data analysis methods and variables.

And now onto the big โ€œRevealโ€ of what these seemingly disowned stats actually claimโ€ฆโ€ฆ..

30-year averaging period 1991 to 2020

Screenshot of climate data table for Katesbridge, displaying average temperatures, rainfall, days of air frost, and sunshine hours for the period 1991 to 2020.
A data table showing annual weather statistics for Katesbridge over two 30-year periods (1991-2020 and 1961-1990), including figures for annual average temperature and precipitation.

30 Year averaging period 1961 to 1990

Table displaying climate data for Katesbridge, including maximum and minimum temperatures, days of air frost, sunshine hours, rainfall, and wind speed for the period 1961 to 1990.
Table displaying annual climate data including annual, seasonal, and monthly averages.

Thus Mean Maximum Increase = 0.78 ยฐC Mean Minimum Increase = 0.33ยฐC

How does this compare to the neighbouring Climate Stations quoted above. Starting with Killowen (temperature records only started in 1997) just 16 miles away.

The 1990 to 2020 compilation.

A table displaying average climate data for the Killowen weather station, including metrics like maximum and minimum temperature, days of air frost, sunshine hours, rainfall, and wind speed.
Table displaying climate data for Katesbridge, including annual temperature and precipitation figures.

And nowย 1961 to 1990ย โ€“ just the figures line for simplicity.

A table displaying annual weather data including precipitation and temperature figures.

Mean Maximum Increase = 0.90 ยฐC Mean Minimum Increase = 1.79ยฐC

Pause for thought on that โ€“ Killown is showing a staggering 1.79ยฐC mean minimum increase as opposed to less than a fifth of that numerical increase at just 0.33ยฐC at Katesbridge! Ah well you say thatโ€™s obviously because Katesbridge is in a frost hollow and should not be used. But Chief Scientists Dan hollis and Matthew Perry must have known that and they still selected both of them for inclusion so that is definitely no โ€œGet out of jailโ€ card. How does this level of mean discrepancy apply to other sites?

Helens Bay is on the coast of County Down and definitely no frost hollow there distorting readings.

1991-2020

Table displaying annual climate data for Katesbridge, including temperature and precipitation figures.

1961 to 1990

Table showing annual rainfall and other weather data statistics for various periods at Katesbridge.

Not quite Killowen standards but it still shows an impressive 1.15ยฐC mean minimum increment.

Realistically how are all these huge variations possible? This is all in just one small county within a small country producing massively different changes in mean temperatures on a scale that no credible scientist could accept as a variation in the โ€œsignalโ€ of โ€œGlobal Warming-Boiling/Climate Change-Crisisโ€ โ€ฆ.call it what you wish. It should be blatantly obvious to anyone that this is not any form of credible evidence.

What it most certainly is revealing is that the Met Officeโ€™s practices are way below acceptable and, for myriad reasons I have regularly detailed, clearly produce โ€œGarbageโ€ figures going either into or coming out of their historic climate computer systems. The resulting hotch-potch of variations is worthless.

I openly challenge the Met Office, Science Feedback, Lord Vallance and even Roy Spencer to justify such poor standards and rank Disinformation. I am not holding my breath though because they know full well that they cannot justify such nonsense so in lieu I expect more ad-hominem attacks on meโ€ฆโ€ฆ..they canโ€™t play the ball.

Starmer to push Britain into stricter net zero targets under EUย deal

Sir Keir Starmer is preparing to tie Britain to the EUโ€™s net zero plans in a move that would impose radically stricter clean energy targets on homes and businesses.

A humorous edited image showing two politicians, one wearing a suit with glasses and a British flag behind him, and the other in a light-colored jacket, both with cartoonish devil horns, standing in front of European Union flags.

Prime Minister accused of โ€˜surrendering controlโ€™ of UK energy system to rejoin blocโ€™s electricity market

Sir Keir Starmer is preparing to tie Britain to the EUโ€™s net zero plans in a move that would impose radically stricter clean energy targets on homes and businesses. The Telegraph has the story.

The Prime Minister and Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, are negotiating for Britain toย rejoin the EUโ€™s internal electricity market, which treats the 27 countries of the EU and Norway as a single borderless power grid.

The EU will only let Britain back into the system if Sir Keir agrees to the blocโ€™s ambitious targets for renewable energy, which would require the UK to decarbonise not just electricity but also heating and transport rapidly.

In practice, it would mean net zero targets would need to be doubled.

Claire Coutinho, the shadow energy secretary, accused the Prime Minister of โ€œsurrendering control of our energy system to bureaucrats in Brusselsโ€.

She said: โ€œUK ministers will be forced to reduce emissions regardless of what it will do to peopleโ€™s energy bills or the competitiveness of our businesses.โ€

It comes as Labour seeks to forge closer ties with the EU, with MPs debating in recent weeks whether Britain should return to the customs union.

The plans would also aid Mr Milibandโ€™s ambitions to decarbonise the power grid, allowing the UK to import foreign electricity when low wind or sunshine cuts output from wind and solar farms.

The EUโ€™s demands emerged in a document placed without fanfare on the Cabinet Office website. The plan is both technically challenging and politically sensitive because it would make UK energy policy subject to EU jurisdiction.

It stated: โ€œThe Electricity Agreement should โ€ฆ set an indicative global target for the share of renewable energy in the gross final consumption of energy in the United Kingdom. To ensure a level playing field, the global target should be comparable to that of the European Union.โ€

The EUโ€™s target is that 42.5pc of all its energy shouldย come from renewablesย by 2030, with an aspiration to reach 45pc.

This is roughly double the UKโ€™s current level of 22pc.

Mr Miliband has set a target to decarbonise Britainโ€™s power generation by 95pc by 2030, but electricity accounts for only 20pc of UK total energy consumption, so this will never be enough to meet EU demands. Transport, heating and industrial energy account for 75pc of the UKโ€™s total energy consumption.

At the moment, the UK gets about 75pc of its total energy from oil and gas, a level that has hardly changed in decades.

Energy experts said the EU target could only be achieved by accelerating the replacement of boilers with heat pumps, adding more biofuels to petrol and diesel, and encouraging even faster adoption of electric vehicles.

โ€˜Billpayers should be very worriedโ€™

David Turver, an energy analyst, cast doubt over the feasibility of the target even with more ambitious action.

He said: โ€œWhether itโ€™s a 42.5pc or 45pc target by 2030, it doesnโ€™t matter. Itโ€™s totally unachievable. Unless, of course, they totally crush overall energy consumption and the whole of Europe deindustrialises and goes back to 19th century levels of energy use.โ€

Ms Coutinho said: โ€œBillpayers should be very worried about what the Labour Government is signing up to. The EUโ€™s Renewable Energy Directive is like all the worst parts of the UK Climate Change Act โ€“ on steroids.โ€

Britain left the EU internal electricity market in 2021 as part of Brexit โ€“ but has since becomeย increasingly dependent on its European neighboursย to keep its lights on.

Power generated in France, Holland, Belgium, Norway and Denmark reaches the UK via seven interconnectors โ€“ subsea cables โ€“ with plans for several more.

On Tuesday, about 18pc of the UKโ€™s electricity was being generated overseas, mostly in France, Norway and Denmark.

On some days recently more than half the electricity consumed in London and the south east is generated in France.

The UKโ€™s exclusion from the EU market means its traders are banned from using the automated algorithms that optimise cross-border flows and have to buy and sell manually.

They also have to buy interconnector capacity and electricity in separate transactions. The โ€œclunkinessโ€ of such trading adds costs estimated at up to ยฃ370m a year.

Read the full story here.

Image of two political figures, one wearing glasses and a suit with a British flag in the background, the other in a light blazer, both adorned with cartoonish devil horns, smiling and posing for the camera against a backdrop that includes EU symbols.

CLAIM: Feedback loops accelerate warming, other atmospheric changes in Arctic

From theย Penn Stateย and the โ€œI donโ€™t believe this for a minute because it looks like another โ€˜we hate big oilโ€™ pushโ€ Department.

Aerial view of ocean waves with a wing of an aircraft in the foreground, showcasing a calm sky and water surface.

Watts Up With That?

Anthony Watts

View from an aircraft over the Arctic Ocean, showing water surface patterns and atmospheric effects.

From the Penn State and the โ€œI donโ€™t believe this for a minute because it looks like another โ€˜we hate big oilโ€™ pushโ€ Department.
Oil-field emissions reshaping regional atmospheric processes, researchers report.

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. โ€” The climate is changing and nowhere is it changing faster than at Earthโ€™s poles. Researchers at Penn State have painted a comprehensive picture of the chemical processes taking place in the Arctic and found that there are multiple, separate interactions impacting the atmosphere.

Using two instrumented planes and ground-based measurements from a two-month long field campaign to compare chemical processes in two regions in the Arctic โ€” and the largest oil field in North America โ€” to surrounding areas, researchers made three discoveries. The findings were: openings in the sea ice โ€” called leads โ€“ significantly influence atmospheric chemistry and cloud formation; emissions from the oil field measurably alter regional atmospheric composition; and together, these processes contribute to a feedback loop that accelerates sea-ice melt and amplifies Arctic warming.

The research was recently published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. The work was part of a larger multi-institutional project called CHemistry in the Arctic: Clouds, Halogens, and Aerosols, or CHACHA. Led by five institutions, CHACHA examines chemical changes that occur as surface air is swept into the lower atmosphere, resulting in interactions among water particles, low clouds and pollution.

โ€œThis field campaign is an unprecedented opportunity to explore chemical changes in the boundary layer โ€” the atmospheric layer closest to the planetโ€™s surface โ€” and to understand how human influence is altering the climate in this important region,โ€ said Jose D. Fuentes, professor of meteorology in the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science and corresponding author of the paper. โ€œThe resulting datasets are producing an improved understanding of the interactions between sea-spray aerosols, surface-coupled clouds, oil field emissions and multiphase halogen chemistry in the new Arctic.โ€

To study the chemistry of the boundary layer of the Arctic, researchers sampled air over snow-covered and newly frozen sea ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, over open leads and across the snow-covered tundra of the North Slope of Alaska, including the oil and gas extraction region near Prudhoe Bay. The campaign was conducted out of Utqiaฤกvik, Alaska, between February 21 and April 16, 2022, shortly after the polar sunrise โ€” a period of continuous sunlight following two months of darkness โ€” when the increased UV rays intensify the chemical changes at the surface and in the lower atmosphere.

Researchers found that leads โ€” ranging from a few feet to a few miles wide โ€” created intense convective plumes and cloud formations, while lofting potentially harmful molecules, aerosol pollutants and water vapor โ€” all things that can contribute to warming the climate โ€” hundreds of feet into the atmosphere. These processes accelerated sea-ice loss by forcing even more convection and cloud formation, which increased moisture and heat transfer and led to the formation of even more leads, Fuentes said.

The team identified another feedback loop on land, with chemicals found in the saline snowpacks along the coast reacting with the emissions from the oil field. During the CHACHA campaign, researchers specifically observed bromine production along saline snowpacks โ€” a phenomenon unique to polar regions. These bromine molecules rapidly depleted ozone in the boundary layer, creating another feedback loop that allows more of the sunโ€™s rays to reach the surface, warming the snowpacks and releasing more bromine.

Additionally, during the field campaign, researchers found massive boundary layer changes over the Prudhoe Bay oil fields. Gas plumes from the extraction area reacted in the lower atmosphere, acidifying the air mass and producing harmful substances and smog, Fuentes said. They also found that halogens react with oil field plumes to create free radicals, which then form more stable substances that can travel long distances. Fuentes said these substances can contribute to regional environmental changes.

Fuentes said CHACHA researchers are now investigating how these reactions affect the broader Arctic environment, including the formation of smog plumes that, despite occurring in an otherwise pristine region, reach pollution levels comparable to those found in major urban areas such as Los Angeles. For example, nitrogen dioxide levels reached about 60-70 parts per billion, levels associated with the noxious gases blamed for urban smog.

The next steps, researchers said, involve creating datasets that numerical modelers can use to better understand how global climate may evolve as a result of these localized factors in the Arctic.

Other CHACHA team members were from Stony Brook University, the University at Albany, University of Michigan and University of Alaska Fairbanks. This research was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation.

True, Rigzone, 2025 Was Quiet in the USA For Hurricanes

A recent post at the website Rigzone, โ€œNo Hurricanes Strike USA For 1st Time in a Decade,โ€ discusses how the United States lucked out by not being struck by any hurricanes this year, and never once credits climate change. The whole post is factual and straightforward. Climate change is not making hurricanes worse, it is simply not evidenced in the data.

Satellite image of the eastern United States showing a storm system with the text 'No Landfalls!' prominently displayed.
Image from NOAA press release, NOAA Satellites

From ClimateRealism

By Linnea Lueken

A recent post at the website Rigzone, โ€œNo Hurricanes Strike USA For 1st Time in a Decade,โ€ discusses how the United States lucked out by not being struck by any hurricanes this year, and never once credits climate change. The whole post is factual and straightforward. Climate change is not making hurricanes worse; it is simply not evidenced in the data.

Rigzone reported that โ€œfor the first time in a decade, not a single hurricane struck the U.S. this season, and that was a much-needed break,โ€ as the lead-in to discussing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationโ€™s (NOAA) recent statements on the end of Atlantic hurricane season.

NOAA and Rigzone both acknowledged the tragic landfalls in Jamaica and other nearby countries, but does not try to attribute them to climate change. Rather, they simply factually reported on the storms and their tragic consequences. This is great reporting, straightforward and without spin. Earlier in the season, Climate Realism addressed some of the false claims regarding Hurricane Melissa and Erin, particularly when media claimed that โ€œrapid intensificationโ€ was due to climate change. That was false, no real world data backed the assertion, only misleading and corrupt attribution models that over-emphasize water temperature and downplay other factors that influence hurricane strength and formation.

Rigzone noted in passing how the season fell within the lower end of NOAAโ€™s predicted ranges for the number of named storms and hurricanes, but over-estimated with regards to the Atlantic season overall. Initially, NOAA predicted โ€œa 30 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.โ€ Those numbers were later adjusted towards a 50-50 split.

This season was near-normal, showing that the atmosphere is complex with a lot of factors, some poorly understood, that influence the severity of a hurricane season, beyond temperatures. Nobody can perfectly predict what other factors might spring up and change the seasonal trend.

It might be wise for NOAA and other agencies to err on the high side when making seasonal forecasts, just to prevent people from underestimating the danger from tropical cyclones. However, it does undermine some credibility when it seems every season is supposed to be terrible and most arenโ€™t. Climate alarmists often take advantage of these proclamations to suggest that hurricane seasons are intensifying when clearly they are not.

This science based reporting is refreshing, though suspicious, because one wonders if the news was bad, if the season was worse than usual, whether they would then attribute it to climate change. One wonders why the first no-landfall year in a decade (a good thing) isnโ€™t caused by climate change, while bad weather is, at least according to much of the media.

In any case, this reporting by Rigzone was very good, and they deserve props for it, because it is all too easy to toss in a โ€œthrowawayโ€ line about climate change, but they resisted and kept the post fact focused. Good job, Rigzone, for some accurate, straight, reporting,ย sansย any climate change hype.


Forget About MHEVs

MHEVs are vehicles that combine a conventional internal combustion engine with a small electric motor to assist, rather than replace, the engine, improving fuel efficiency and reducing emissions without providing all-electric driving capability.

A silver car labeled 'Mild Hybrid' parked indoors, showcasing its sleek design and modern features.

MHEVsย areย vehiclesย thatย combineย aย conventionalย internalย combustionย engineย withย aย smallย electricย motorย toย assist,ย ratherย thanย replace,ย theย engine,ย improvingย fuelย efficiencyย andย reducingย emissionsย withoutย providingย all-electricย drivingย capability.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Following my post on the EU abandonment of the ban on ICE cars in 2035, it is worth clarifying the position regarding hybrids.

Just to recap โ€“ the EU demands that vehicle emissions are cut by 90% from 2021 levels come 2035, that is from a 2021 baseline of 110 g CO2/km.

As an example, the current Volkswagen Golf diesel is rated at 115 g currently, with the Golf plug-in hybrid at 25 g.

All emissions figures are certified by the manufacturer, using WLTP technical procedures. I would stress that they are tailpipe emissions, so fully electric cars are rated at zero emissions, regardless of the fact that the electricity they use may involve CO2 emissions.

Where does this leave non-plug-in hybrids, usually referred to as mHEVs?

Up the creek without a paddle, by the looks of it!

The Golf petrol mHEV has emissions of 117 g/km, as high as the diesel.

Volkswagen Golf Hatch Match in blue, featuring a 1.5 eTSI engine, 150 PS, 7-speed DSG. CO2 emissions rated at 117 g/km.

Clearly there is no future for cars like these under the 2035 targets.

Someone, by the way, mentioned the Prius. This has an emissions rating of 36 g/km, still way above the EUโ€™s 2035 Directive, which equates to about 11 g/km.

A yellow Toyota Prius driving on a road with a scenic mountainous background.
A detailed description of an engine's performance specifications including CO2 emissions of 36 g/km, emphasizing high performance and confidence in driving.

As I mentioned before, plug-in hybrids are of no use to drivers who donโ€™t have off street parking. They are not going to queue up at public EV chargers, where they will be charged a fortune. Instead, they will simply fill up with petrol and drive it just as like an ordinary car. This will of course make a nonsense of the low emission figures claimed.

UK ZEV Mandates & Hybrids

The situation in the UK at the moment is that new hybrids can still be sold after 2030, but only subject to ZEV mandates.

In 2030, fully electric cars must make up at least 80% of sales, leaving 20% for hybrids. However, this hybrid allowance will quickly be cut to the bone, until they are fully phased out in 2035:

Table displaying the UK ZEV Mandate Targets for Cars from 2030 to 2035, outlining minimum ZEV percentage and maximum non-ZEV percentage.

Hybrid sales this year are running at 25%, so there is realistically no long term future for hybrid manufacturers in this country.

They will be able to survive for a couple of years or so, taking advantage of extended credit trading (e.g., rewarding COโ‚‚ savings from hybrids in earlier years).

But the outlook after 2030 is bleak, unless the ZEV mandates are completely cancelled, as the Tories have promised.

A table displaying market data for electric vehicles and hybrids, comparing figures for 2025 and 2024, including the number of BEVs, PHEVs, HEVs, petrol, and diesel vehicles alongside their market shares and percentage changes.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

New Climate Guilt Trip: Donโ€™t Enjoy Food During the Holidays

From the University of British Columbia and the โ€œEverything and we meanย everything, that is good or fun in todayโ€™s world is bad for the climateโ€ Department comes this Grinch-like peer reviewed rubbish.

A stylized globe featuring various fruits, vegetables, and greenery, symbolizing the relationship between diet and environmental sustainability.

From Watts Up With That?

By Anthony Watts

From the University of British Columbia and the โ€œEverything and we mean everything, that is good or fun in todayโ€™s world is bad for the climateโ€ Department comes this Grinch-like peer reviewed rubbish. One wonders how anyone could write this stuff, let alone put out a press release on it with a straight face. โ€“ Anthony


How changing your diet could help save the world

For many of us, the holiday season can mean delightful overeating, followed by recriminatory New Yearโ€™s resolutions.

But eating enough and no more should be on the menu for all of us, according to a recent UBC study. It found that 44 per cent of us would need to change our diets for the world to warm no more than 2 C.

Dr. Juan Diego Martinez, who led the research as a doctoral student at UBCโ€™s Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, discusses the studyโ€™s findings and the simple dietary changes we can all make.

What did you find?

Half of us globally and at least 90 per cent of Canadians need to change our diets to prevent severe planetary warming. And that number is conservative, because we used 2012 data. Since then, emissions and the worldโ€™s population have both increased. Looking ahead to 2050, we found that 90 per cent of us will need to be eating differently.

We looked at data from 112 countries, accounting for 99 per cent of food-related greenhouse gas emissions globally and divided each countryโ€™s population into 10 income groups. We calculated a food emissions budget for each person by combining emissions from food consumption, global food production and supply chains, and compared these emissions to the total the world can afford if we want to stay below 2 C of warming.

Why focus on dietary changes rather than, say, flying less?

The worldโ€™s food systems are responsible for more than one-third of all human greenhouse gas emissions.

We found that the 15 per cent of people who emitted the most account for 30 per cent of total food emissions, equaling the contribution of the entire bottom 50 per cent. This selects group consists of the wealthiest people in high emissions countries, including the Central African Republic, Brazil and Australia.

Even though this group is emitting a lot, there is a much higher number of people whose diets are above that cap. This is why half, not just the richest, of the global population needs to change diets. In Canada, all 10 income groups are above the cap.

Debates around flying less, driving electric and buying fewer luxury goods are valid: We need to reduce emissions any way we can. However, food emissions are not just a problem for the richestโ€”we all need to eat, so we can all make a change. For people who are both flying frequently and eating lots of beef, itโ€™s not an either/or: Try to reduce both.

What changes can we make to our diets?

Eat only what you need. Repurpose what you donโ€™t. Less wasted food means fewer emissions, less cooking and more easy, tasty leftovers.

Eliminate or reduce your beef consumptionโ€”43 per cent of food-related emissions from the average Canadian come from beef alone. We could have had our beef and eaten it too if weโ€™d followed the agreements laid out in the Kyoto Protocol, but weโ€™re now at a point where food emissions also need to fall to avoid the worst of climate change.

I grew up in Latin America where eating a lot of beef is part of the culture, so I get how much of an ask this is. But we just canโ€™t deny the data anymore.

Vote with your fork. This is a first step to demand change from your political leaders. The more we talk about our own dietary changes and what matters to us, the more politicians will begin to care about policies that bring positive changes to our food systems.


Journal

Environmental Research Food Systems DOI 10.1088/2976-601X/ae10c0 

Study Shows Coalโ€™s Importance to Electric Affordability

The study by Energy Ventures Analysisย analyzedย the annual cost of replacing coal power plants scheduled to retire with six renewable sources of electricity: solar alone, solar firmed by battery energy storage systems (BESS) or natural gas, wind alone, and wind firmed by BESS or natural gas.

A large coal processing facility featuring conveyor belts and structures, set against a misty landscape with a winding road in the foreground.

From ClimateRealism

By Chris Dickerson

Close-up of black coal pieces stacked together.
Guest post by Chris Dickerson from Legal Newsline, originally posted at The Center Square. 
Editorโ€™s note: This post covers a new report by Energy Ventures Analysis that found electricity costs will rise if certain existing coal plants are retired and replaced with different renewables mixes, and that maintaining existing coal plants is the most cost effective and reliable electricity option for the affected regions. This is not surprising as Climate Realism has pointed out many times that coal and other fossil fuels are cheaper and more reliable than so-called renewables.

A new study estimates the costs of replacing coal plants with renewable power sources.

The study by Energy Ventures Analysis analyzed the annual cost of replacing coal power plants scheduled to retire with six renewable sources of electricity: solar alone, solar firmed by battery energy storage systems (BESS) or natural gas, wind alone, and wind firmed by BESS or natural gas.

Affordable electricity has become top of mind for consumers, policymakers, voters and elected officials as electricity prices for the residential, commercial, industrial and transportation sectors averaged 6.7% higher in September compared to September 2024.

The reasons for these price increases vary from state to state, according to the study. Some of the most often mentioned reasons are higher demand for electricity caused by data centers and artificial intelligence, overall inflation, volatile fuel costs, weather-related grid repairs, supply chain problems, power plant retirements, shift to cleaner energy sources, expansion of the electric transmission system and flawed electricity market rules.

According to the study, almost 42 gigawatts of coal-fired generation (46 plants with 79 generating units) have retired or announced plans to retire during 2025 through 2028.

Last week, West Virginia Public Service Commission Chairwoman Charlotte Lane said the PSC has no plans to vote in favor of closing any coal-fired power plants in West Virginia. During that meeting with lawmakers, Lane also said nobody has filed to close any such plants.

Americaโ€™s Power President and CEO Michelle Bloodworth said the new study shows why coal plants need to stay open.

โ€œAmericans are concerned about rising electricity prices, and this new study shows that keeping coal plants open, rather than retiring them, is a good way to avoid unnecessary increases in electricity prices,โ€ she said. โ€œThe study estimates that continuing to operate retiring coal plants rather than building new renewable power sources could save at least $3 billion and as much as $54 billion per year.โ€

Bloodworth also said the huge cost savings do not quantify the loss of reliability attributes that coal provides and renewables do not.

โ€œPolicymakers need to understand that an all-of-the-above energy strategy that includes coal as an irreplaceable part of our electricity mix is crucial to maintaining affordable electricity prices and the reliability of our grid,โ€ she said.