Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
MHEVs are vehicles that combine a conventional internal combustion engine with a small electric motor to assist, rather than replace, the engine, improving fuel efficiency and reducing emissions without providing all-electric driving capability.
MHEVs are vehicles that combine a conventional internal combustion engine with a small electric motor to assist, rather than replace, the engine, improving fuel efficiency and reducing emissions without providing all-electric driving capability.
Following my post on the EU abandonment of the ban on ICE cars in 2035, it is worth clarifying the position regarding hybrids.
Just to recap – the EU demands that vehicle emissions are cut by 90% from 2021 levels come 2035, that is from a 2021 baseline of 110 g CO2/km.
As an example, the current Volkswagen Golf diesel is rated at 115 g currently, with the Golf plug-in hybrid at 25 g.
All emissions figures are certified by the manufacturer, using WLTP technical procedures. I would stress that they are tailpipe emissions, so fully electric cars are rated at zero emissions, regardless of the fact that the electricity they use may involve CO2 emissions.
Where does this leave non-plug-in hybrids, usually referred to as mHEVs?
Up the creek without a paddle, by the looks of it!
The Golf petrol mHEV has emissions of 117 g/km, as high as the diesel.
Clearly there is no future for cars like these under the 2035 targets.
Someone, by the way, mentioned the Prius. This has an emissions rating of 36 g/km, still way above the EU’s 2035 Directive, which equates to about 11 g/km.
As I mentioned before, plug-in hybrids are of no use to drivers who don’t have off street parking. They are not going to queue up at public EV chargers, where they will be charged a fortune. Instead, they will simply fill up with petrol and drive it just as like an ordinary car. This will of course make a nonsense of the low emission figures claimed.
UK ZEV Mandates & Hybrids
The situation in the UK at the moment is that new hybrids can still be sold after 2030, but only subject to ZEV mandates.
In 2030, fully electric cars must make up at least 80% of sales, leaving 20% for hybrids. However, this hybrid allowance will quickly be cut to the bone, until they are fully phased out in 2035:
Hybrid sales this year are running at 25%, so there is realistically no long term future for hybrid manufacturers in this country.
They will be able to survive for a couple of years or so, taking advantage of extended credit trading (e.g., rewarding CO₂ savings from hybrids in earlier years).
But the outlook after 2030 is bleak, unless the ZEV mandates are completely cancelled, as the Tories have promised.
The U.S. automotive market is experiencing a significant shift as companies like Ford, GM, and Stellantis adjust their strategies in response to changing consumer demands and regulatory environments. With electric vehicle (EV) sales slowing down, these manufacturers are scaling back EV production and redirecting investments toward hybrids and gas vehicles
The U.S. automotive market is experiencing a significant shift as companies like Ford, GM, and Stellantis adjust their strategies in response to changing consumer demands and regulatory environments. With electric vehicle (EV) sales slowing down, these manufacturers are scaling back EV production and redirecting investments toward hybrids and gas vehicles.
General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor are cutting billions in fixed costs, including laying off thousands of workers, and Chrysler parent Stellantis is taking even more drastic measures to reduce spending. According to Reuters, Ford Motor is taking a $19.5 billion write-down and is removing several electric-vehicle (EV) models from its line-up, as the auto industry retreats from battery-powered models in response to weakened EV demand and the Trump administration’s policies. GM and Stellantis have already shifted more of their production to combustion engine vehicles, also taking financial hits. GM wrote down $1.6 billion in EV assets and indicated that more write-downs are expected. Due to the push for electric vehicles by Western governments, automakers overestimated their demand and are now making a detour to correct the costly error.
Sales of new electric vehicles in the United States, especially more expensive models, have slowed since the beginning of 2024. The Trump administration rolled back financial incentives for consumers to buy electric vehicles in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by removing tax credits at the end of the fiscal year, further depressing sales. The administration is also modifying automobile efficiency standards from those approved by the Biden administration to eliminate the requirement forcing EV purchases.
Companies Will Continue with EV Production at a Reduced Level
According to Reuters, Ford will switch production at a new factory in Tennessee to gas-powered pickup truck models from electric models, cancel an electric commercial van model, remake the F-150 Lightning vehicle into a hybrid from a pure electric vehicle; and convert its Kentucky EV-battery factory into a battery-storage business for utilities, wind- and solar-power developers, and data centers that train artificial intelligence. It is also planning to build a medium electric truck with a $30,000 price target by 2027 to be competitive with Chinese automakers. That was the first in a line of low-cost electric vehicles. CBS News reports that, by 2030, Ford expects about half its global volume to consist of hybrids, extended-range vehicles, and electric vehicles, up from 17% this year. Hybrids are believed to be more affordable and practical to consumers who are wary of pure electric vehicles due to their high sticker prices, worries over battery range, and access to charging stations.
Western vehicle makers are aware of the competitive threat posed by Chinese EV automakers, whose models are popular at home and abroad. U.S. automakers see Americans want smaller, affordable EV models like those made by Chinese automakers and sold outside the United States. Currently, Chinese vehicles are banned from U.S. markets because of tariffs. Ford’s changes are expected to put it on a better footing to compete with Chinese automakers.
Besides the $19.5 billion write-down Ford is taking, its EV losses since 2023 have totaled $13 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal, making its total EV junket at least a $32.5 billion mistake. American automobile buyers were charged more for their gas and diesel vehicle purchases to help pay for the misguidance of automakers producing electric vehicles, with overall vehicle prices hitting new heights. Many Americans felt vehicles were becoming unaffordable.
Via Electrek, GM is halting production of its electric vehicles due to slower EV industry growth and customer demand. Production of the Cadillac Lyriq and larger Vistiq, both of which are built at a Spring Hill, Tennessee facility, will be reduced during the first five months of 2026. GM plans to suspend one of its two shifts at the facility, resulting in layoffs for workers on the second shift. GM is also delaying the start of a second shift at its Fairfax assembly plant outside of Kansas City “indefinitely,” where the new Chevy Bolt EV was scheduled to enter production this year. GM also plans to slow production of the GMC Hummer EV and Cadillac Escalade IQ at its Factory Zero plant in Detroit.
Automakers Turn to Producing Energy Storage Batteries
According to the Wall Street Journal, automakers and battery manufacturers are repurposing electric-vehicle battery plants to serve the fast-growing data-center and utility markets, as slowing EV demand pushes companies to seek alternative revenue streams. General Motors, South Korean conglomerate LG, and Chrysler parent Stellantis have shifted toward producing batteries for energy-storage systems to help offset the downturn in electric-vehicle sales.
Tesla has already built a sizable business in the segment, generating billions of dollars in sales from energy-storage batteries. Revenue from its energy-generation and storage division, which also includes solar panels, rose 67% last year to $4 billion, partially cushioning a $6 billion decline in EV revenue.
GM is also exploring a partnership to supply energy-storage batteries to Redwood Materials, a battery-recycling startup. Under the proposed arrangement, GM would provide Redwood with a mix of new and used batteries for large-scale storage projects. Meanwhile, a Chinese-owned battery manufacturer that had planned to supply Mercedes-Benz is now considering pivoting to energy-storage products in an effort to revive a stalled factory project in Kentucky.
U.S. electricity demand is growing again due to demand from artificial intelligence data centers, manufacturing, and increased electrification, which was pushed by the Biden administration and continues to be pushed in blue states. These factors make energy storage a growing business.
Europe Waters Down Its Ban on New Gas-Powered Vehicles
As reported by the BBC, the European Union has watered down its ban on new gas-powered vehicles, easing rules approved two years ago that required all new vehicles sold from 2035 onward to have zero carbon emissions, which would have effectively barred the sale of hybrid vehicles as well as traditional internal combustion engines. Instead, it is using a strict emissions cap that leaves room for gas and hybrid models. Instead of a 100% tailpipe carbon dioxide reduction target in 2035, it has a 90% fleet reduction. The change still forces automakers to sell mostly zero-emission vehicles, but it opens a path for a small number of plug-in hybrids and highly efficient combustion cars, particularly those that can run on certified carbon dioxide-neutral e-fuels or advanced biofuels.
Analysis
The so-called EV revolution is beginning to stall as automakers repurpose their EV production capacity in favor of gas-powered vehicles and batteries for energy storage. Slowing EV sales and the removal of subsidies and mandates by the Trump administration and congressional Republicans have signaled to these manufacturers that their efforts are better served by meeting consumer demand rather than government incentives. Even in Europe, politicians are starting to realize that forcing automakers to sell only EVs would raise prices and force consumers to drive cars that can’t travel as far.
Some of Britain’s best-selling hybrid cars will be banned from sale after 2030 under a Net Zero crackdown proposed by Ministers. The Telegraph has the story.
The Government favours a strict limit on CO2 emissions that would mean popular new hybrids made by Range Rover, Ford, VW and Nissan could no longer be sold.
In consultation documents published the day before Christmas, the Government confirmed plans to allow some new hybrids to remain on the market for five years after a ban on pure petrol and diesel cars comes into force.
However, the proposed emissions limits are stricter than expected and would mean that swathes of popular vehicles have to come off the market.
The proposal is meant to prevent a situation where some petrol and diesel cars would be banned while some existing hybrids that are more polluting remain on sale.
It would limit emissions to 115 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometre, potentially ruling out sales of many “mild” hybrids – those that have electric motors but cannot use them to travel significant distances – as well as a smaller number of plug-in ones.
Models that would face bans under this rule include the mild hybrid versions of the Ford Puma, Range Rover Evoque, Nissan Qashqai and VW Golf, among several others, analysis by the Telegraph suggests.
The true impact could be even larger because emissions ratings for most plug-in hybrids today do not reflect their real-world performance and are set to be updated.
In many cases the true emissions of plug-ins are 243% higher, according to the Government. If emissions figures are revised up higher in the coming years, many more models will come off the market.
Instead, he has doggedly championed a so-called multi-pathway approach that spans EVs, hybrids and even hydrogen-powered cars. The Telegraph has the story.
The decision has infuriated climate activists who once praised Toyota for its eco-friendly Prius hatchback, while even industry insiders have wondered whether the company is making a strategic blunder.
“It’s really hard to fight alone,” Toyoda said to staff, according to a translation of his January remarks.
Toyota sold 10.3 million cars in 2023, an increase of 7.7pc compared to a year earlier.
The total included a combined 3.5 million hybrids and plug-in hybrids – a year-on-year increase of 32pc – but only 104,000 EVs.
For the year to the end of March, the Japanese giant is now forecasting profits of 4.5 trillion yen (£24bn), up from 2.5 trillion yen previously.
Yoichi Miyazaki, executive vice president at Toyota, said hybrids were even selling strongly in China – the world’s biggest market and producer of EVs.
“As a realistic solution, hybrids are still favoured by our customers,” he told reporters.
Meanwhile, rival manufacturers that have driven further ahead with EVs are now pumping the brakes, with Ford, Volkswagen and General Motors among those scaling back production.
After successfully targeting early adopters, they are finding the mass market much tougher to crack – with many consumers still put off by high prices and worries about charging infrastructure.
“EVs have soaked up all of the early adopter and wealthy demand,” explains Andrew Bergbaum, an automotive expert at consultancy AlixPartners.
“But the costs still haven’t come down to the point where they’ve reached the mass market prices you see with internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.
“Hybrids are also considerably cheaper [than EVs], because the batteries in them are so much smaller.
“Once you couple that with range anxiety and concerns about EV resale values, it’s a fairly understandable market phenomenon.”
“The math doesn’t work,” Mark Fields, former Ford Motor CEO, told Joe Kernen of CNBC early last week. Until the industry solves charging and cost issues, EV sales will continue to underperform.
“Despite the optimists telling us how well EVs are selling and that the charging and cost issues will be quickly resolved, the industry struggles. Having bought into the EV vision, the reality is unsettling. The math doesn’t work, and consumers are concluding HEVs better meet their driving needs. Auto executives are wondering whether their betting on the EV transition, even with mandates, is putting them on the road to bankruptcy.”
“The math doesn’t work,” Mark Fields, former Ford Motor CEO, told Joe Kernen of CNBC early last week. Until the industry solves charging and cost issues, EV sales will continue to underperform. The bottom line for Fields is that “the government [Biden administration] will have to back off” its policies mandating two-thirds of new vehicle sales being EVs by 2030. Absent such an adjustment, emissions will worsen, and the EV transition will lag.
CNBC questioned Fields about the EV sales slowdown. Policymakers are ignoring the evidence, but automakers are acting by scaling back EV investment.
Fields noted that the 2021 Infrastructure Act committed the U.S. to spending $7.5 billion to build out a nationwide network of 500,000 EV chargers. But by December 5, no new charging stations had been commissioned. Fields also noted that about 180,000 chargers today compares to an estimated U.S. need between 1.2 and 1.4 million chargers by 2030. Using the low estimate of 1.2 million chargers, Fields calculated that the nation must add 465 chargers every single day from now until 2030, a feat he doubts will happen.
EVs also have a cost problem. In the third quarter, Fields noted, 25% of luxury vehicle sales were EVs, yet they were only 3% of non-luxury car sales. The problem: the average cost of EVs is 25% above the average cost of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales, he said. And that premium is down 20% due to EV price cuts earlier this year. Fields put the cost difference into perspective by citing that elevated interest rates translate into an additional $275 per month in loan payments.
Charging and vehicle cost is the math Fields says doesn’t work. The automobile industry understands it. The reality, according to Fields, is that the industry will transition to EVs because fossil fuels are finite, but not on the original timetable. As automakers adjust their spending plans to match a slower transition, there will be unintended consequences.
Unintended Consequences of the EV ‘Transition’
The Biden administration is driving the EV transition by proposing higher vehicle fuel-efficiency standards. As a result, automakers stopped working on the next generation of ICE power trains last year. This means fleet fuel economy improvement will slow and eventually stop.
History offers us a lesson in what happens to emissions when fuel-efficiency improvements are ignored. The following chart from The 2023 EPA Automotive Trends Report – Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Fuel Economy, and Technology since 1975 shows that during 1988–2004 vehicle fuel efficiency declined 12%, coinciding with emissions rising 14%. The years before and after showed positive and strong correlations between rising vehicle fuel efficiency and reduced emissions.
Canadian EV Problems Too
Similar challenges are emerging in our neighbor to the north. Canada’s Environmental Minister Steven Guilbeault told CBC’s Power and Politics host, “What we are proposing is that, by 2035, we progressively make it easier and easier to buy electric vehicles.” That benign comment was followed by Guilbeault stating, “So, 12 years from now, 100 percent of new vehicles sold would have to be electric vehicles.” The reason for the EV mandate was outlined in the agency’s press release announcing the policy.
“These vehicles account for about half of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector, while the transportation sector overall accounts for about 25 percent of Canada’s overall greenhouse gas emissions.”
Guilbeault acknowledged that people could continue to use their ICE vehicles after 2035, but there would be no new ones sold in Canada. The Canadian mandate applies to light-duty vehicles: cars, trucks, and SUVs, excluding police, fire, or ambulance services. Hybrids will continue to be sold after 2035 as long as they have an all-electric range of at least 80 kilometers (50 miles). Hybrids may become a popular alternative to battery-only EVs (BEVs) given the charging and cold weather conditions in Canada.
Just like the U.S., Canada needs many more charging stations, especially given its large remote geography. A Natural Resources Canada report estimates that by 2035 the country needs between 442,000 and 469,000 charging ports. As of December 1, 2023, Canada had 10,425 charging stations with 25,256 charging ports. To reach the low-end estimate of 442,000 charging ports, Canada must install 104 charging ports every single day from now to 2035. While only needing to install a quarter of charging ports as in the U.S., Canada’s population is an eighth the size of the U.S., and its economy is 8% of that of the U.S. Coupled with more remote areas, Canada faces a huge challenge building out a nationwide charging system.
A major problem for Canadians facing the EV mandate is their performance in cold weather. Earlier this year, Seattle-based Recurrent measured the EV range loss at temperatures of -7C (19F) to -1C (30F). It found that 18 popular EV models lost 30% of their range in freezing conditions. SaskPower says that in extreme cold (-40C/-40F), the battery range can be cut in half. Equipping EVs with heat pumps may help minimize range loss, but that boosts the EV’s cost. A study by MoveElectric showed that EVs equipped with a heat pump only lost 25% of their maximum charge compared to ones without heat pumps that lost nearly 34% of their range.
Bad Political Bet?
Last week, news releases from General Motors and Ford saw dealerships bailing out of selling EVs as the transition slows. GM bought out about half its Buick dealerships who opted not to sell EVs as the company moves to only offer electric vehicles in 2030. GM had asked Buick dealers to invest $300,000-$400,000 to prepare their stores to sell and service EVs. In 2020, GM’s Cadillac division lost 20% of its dealers who opted for buyouts rather than investing $300,000-$700,000 for tools, training, equipment, and charging stations to sell and service EVs.
The Ford EV dealer experience is similar. In 2022, Ford CEO Jim Farley had “secured commitments” from two of every three dealers to go all-in on selling EVs. At the time, Ford said it had 1,920 dealers in the voluntary Model e Program for its initial 2024-2026 period. Now, half of Ford dealers, or 1,550, have decided to stay with selling hybrid and ICE vehicles only in 2024, waiting before having to decide whether to make the investments necessary to sell and service EVs.
These announcements follow a November letter to President Joe Biden signed by 4,000 auto dealers calling the EV mandate “unrealistic,” as their lots filled with unsold EVs. They asked for time for EV technology to improve and become less costly.
GM and Ford began scaling back their EV investments and production targets in the fall. GM said it was slowing North American EV production due to lower-than-forecast demand. It pushed its earlier output target for building 400,000 EVs by mid-2024 into 2025, which will save the company $1.5 billion. The company also pushed back the opening of an EV truck factory in Detroit by a year. It is also working to build greater flexibility in its manufacturing operations to allow for fluctuations in EV demand. However, given the company’s championing the Biden administration’s EV push, GM reiterated its plan to only build EVs by 2035.
In July, Ford pushed back its EV output target by one year, and in October it announced a postponement of $12 billion in EV investments citing them as being “too expensive.” Through the first nine months of 2023, Ford’s EV business lost about $3.1 billion. In the third quarter, Ford lost $36,000 per EV sold, up from the $32,000 per unit sold lost in the second quarter. The company postponed the construction of a Kentucky battery plant and later scaled back production at its Michigan battery plant in response to weaker EV demand.
Some of its production cutbacks reflect the company adjusting to the higher labor costs following the settlement of the UAW strike. The higher costs and weakening demand have not caused the company to back off from its EV 8% pre-tax profitability goal in 2026, but we will not be surprised to see the target revised when Ford reports year-end results in early 2024.
Dilution: Hybrids Instead
EV optimists point to rising EV market share in 2023. EVs sold in the third quarter represented about 9% of total new vehicle sales. According to Argonne National Laboratory data, 112,421 plug-in vehicles (PEV), of which 89,082 were battery electric vehicles (BEV) and 23,339 plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), were sold in November 2023, up 30.6% from November 2022 sales. PEV market share reached 9.23% of total light-duty vehicle sales.
These figures demonstrate the challenge of commenting on the EV market. Most people, including policymakers setting EV mandates, think in terms of BEVs. Plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) use gasoline depending on driving distances. These vehicles upset the tailpipe emissions narrative of EVs.
November HEV sales show 110,362 units sold including 27,803 cars and 82,559 light-duty trucks. Total HEV sales increased 93.3% from November 2022. Total HEV sales almost equaled PEV sales, but were more than BEV sales. The huge year-over-year HEV sales gain is explained by Americans opting for more environmentally friendly vehicles that overcome EV range fears while also being considerably cheaper than BEVs. Toyota sold 50% of the HEVs in November! These trends have not been lost on Ford, which plans to step up its HEV lineup.
Yes, PEV sales exceeded one million units through 11 months of 2023. At 9+% of total new vehicle sales, the PEV fleet continues to grow. However, to meet the Biden administration’s target of 68% of new vehicle sales being PEVs in 2030, the industry has a monumental hill to climb in six years. The industry is being asked to raise its market share from under 10% to nearly 70% in that span. With U.S. annual new vehicle sales between 15-17 million units, by 2030 the industry must be selling 10.2-11.6 million PEVs, nearly a tenfold increase. Is that realistic?
Back Door Costs
Insurance Rates: Besides inadequate charging networks, EV owners are learning about extremely high insurance rates because of expensive EVs and the high cost of repairing them. That is why EVs are leaving the fleet at a 50% higher attrition rate than ICE vehicles. A recent news story from Vancouver’s Times Colonist told of a major Canadian insurance company scraping a 2022 EV because minor battery damage was going to cost $60,000 to repair, or more than the vehicle was worth.
The bulk of EVs are being sold in the luxury market to people who can afford them as well as pay their high insurance costs. High loan and insurance costs are impediments to sales to lower-income buyers who will be forced to buy EVs under government mandates.
Battery Fires: The other bad news for EVs last week was a battery fire. A spontaneous lithium-ion battery fire broke out near the loading dock at GM’s Factory ZERO in Detroit. It grew into a three-alarm fire and led to the cancellation of the second shift and the shutting down of production at the plant.
Stop-Sale Order: Another potential problem for GM could be the recent stop-sale order for its Chevrolet Blazer EV. The order came following a week of reports of problems with the vehicle, including from automotive media. One episode involved a breakdown during a road trip experienced by an InsideEVs reporter. Then there was the scathing report from car-buying service Edmunds. As InsideEVs wrote:
The stop-sale order also comes after car-buying website Edmunds issued a scathing report about the Blazer EV the staff purchased for evaluation two months ago. The publication reported window switches that refused to work, the infotainment display getting stuck in a shutdown loop, a number of error messages and the failure of various driving functions. ‘What we got back from the dealer was alarming: the single longest list of major faults we at Edmunds have ever seen on a new car,’ the publication said.”
An auto manufacturer doesn’t want to upset the automotive media since they influence consumers. The stop-sale order was issued late last Friday. It reportedly affects only “a limited number” of Blazer EVs. GM did not tell Automotive News how many vehicles were impacted, but according to Cars.com, there are about 1,000 Blazer EVs currently for sale.
A curious issue arose from the input from Blazer EV owners who contacted InsideEVs. They confirmed “similar problems, as well as other issues with GM’s Ultium-branded cars.” Ultium is GM’s new software and battery platform that underlies its future EV models and is considered key to the company’s future and its plan to produce only EVs by 2035. If there is a design problem here, GM’s EV production goals might be pushed further into the future jeopardizing its 2035 EVs-only goal. This is an issue to watch.
Conclusion
Despite the optimists telling us how well EVs are selling and that the charging and cost issues will be quickly resolved, the industry struggles. Having bought into the EV vision, the reality is unsettling. The math doesn’t work, and consumers are concluding HEVs better meet their driving needs. Auto executives are wondering whether their betting on the EV transition, even with mandates, is putting them on the road to bankruptcy.
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Energy expert and commentator Allan Brooks writes at Energy Musings, from which this post was adapted.
A recently published article in the peer-reviewed academic journal Transportation Research tells us that cars, even the supposedly anointed battery electric variety, are far too convenient and that the state must be empowered to “restrict car use.” The authors tell us that converting car lanes to bus lanes have reduced car use in Oslo. No surprise there. The fact that academia is floating this sort of policy should concern anyone who has any inkling of mistrust of the federal government.
Truly our freedom of movement is in peril.
Electric vehicles are not nearly as popular as their advocates would have had us believe, as sales are now slumpingin the face of rising interest rates and a lack of so-called fast chargers. As we begin to bump up against mined mineral constraints and international relations complications, there’s no doubt the cost of making these glorified toys will continue to rise. A recent Consumer Reports publication shows that, over the last 3 model years, electric vehicles are less reliable than normal gasoline and diesel vehicles. So, several states want to ban the sale of reliable, inexpensive gas and diesel cars and force us to buy less reliable electric cars. Note well that the superior reliability of hybrids is likely down to the fact that car makers who are better known for their reliability make more hybrids. There’s nothing inherent to a hybrid that would make it more reliable than a gasoline engine vehicle.
Even our ability to travel using air travel is under the gun. A CNN op-ed recently floated the idea of limiting air travel through the use of carbon (read: sin) passports. We will be limited to traveling based on the amount of carbon dioxide emitted during the flight. The author wants this applied to cruise ships as well. It’s not hard to see this applied to your car as well.
Of course, such rules will not apply to the super-wealthy climate grifters. They’ll be jetting all over the globe for their very important climate conferences.
And it’s not just transportation. In September, Reuters “fact checked” a claim that US cities had agreed to limit meat consumption, finding the claim false. And yet, we are told on a nearly daily basis that eliminating beef consumption is necessary to save the planet. The sin of using coal (but not apparently to create steel) has become the sin of eating a steak. What’s next? Rice? Pork?
Beginning in 2024, the German government will empower local electricity providers to limit the flow of electricity to heat pumps and electric cars. Such limits were the stuff of alleged conspiracy theories mere months ago. Now they’re a reality. Germany’s suicidal attempt to power their grid with nothing but wind and solar, killing off their own nuclear power generation over the last 20 years, has led to energy rationing. It’s not as if this is unpredictable. The unreliability of so-called renewables is common knowledge among energy experts.
It’s sensible for those who are concerned about their ability to choose where and when they travel, what they eat, and when they turn on their heaters and air conditioners to be skeptical of every single attempt to accrue more power by state and federal governments. That skepticism should turn into activism against these power grabs. Anyone who tells you these power grabs aren’t coming is telling you not to believe your own eyes.
The act to be announced in coming days aims to phase out the sale of new combustion vehicles
The new rules will require zero-emissions vehicles — which include battery electric, hydrogen and plug-in electric vehicles — to make up 20 per cent of all new car sales in 2026, 60 per cent in 2030 and 100 per cent in 2035, the reports said.
Hybridization with grizzlies comes up repeatedly in genetic studies that aim to zero in on polar bear origins and is one of the issues I explore in detail in my upcoming new book, Polar Bear Evolution: A Model for How New Species Arise. Here is a photo essay to get you thinking about grizzly X polar bear hybrids, because understanding the topic is critical to unravelling the genetic evidence on how polar bears came to be.
Hybridization with grizzlies comes up repeatedly in genetic studies that aim to zero in on polar bear origins and is one of the issues I explore in detail in my upcoming new book, Polar Bear Evolution: A Model for How New Species Arise. Here is a photo essay to get you thinking about grizzly X polar bear hybrids, because understanding the topic is critical to unravelling the genetic evidence on how polar bears came to be.
For example, who can forget the hoopla over the bear shot near Arviat on the shore of Western Hudson Bay in 2016 (shown above) that everyone, including polar bear expert Ian Stirling, decided must be a hybrid–but it turned out to be a blonde grizzly.
Explaining all the ins and outs of why are important to polar bear evolution is an important part of my book.
As you’ll see, it’s not easy to tell a polar bear hybrid from a brown bear or grizzly (same animal) by its coat colour alone.
Blonde brown bears and grizzlies
The bear below was photographed on the shore of the Chukchi Sea in 2014, feeding on the carcass of a grey whale by NOAA employees surveying the coast. The location suggests it could be a hybrid but if researchers followed up with a DNA test that proved it was, I’m sure we would have heard about it by now. I’m assuming it’s just an oddly-marked, blonde grizzly.
Bear feeding on a grey whale carcass in the Southern Beaufort Sea 2014. NOAA photo.
The bear in the photo below, taken on the North Slope of Alaska in 1995 by Richard Shideler at the Division of Wildlife Conservation, Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G), had biologists wondering if it was a grizzly X polar bear hybrid. But DNA testing revealed it was a blonde grizzly with typical grizzly mtDNA (see Lan et al. 2016 supplement), as were all other suspected hybrids that were tested. Photo from the Lan et al. 2022 press release.
Blonde grizzly, North Slope of Alaska 1995. Richard Shideler photo, ADF&G.
The grizzly below was photographed on the Sagavanirktok River, Alaska (aka, “Sag River,” south of Prudhoe Bay, North Slope of Alaska on the edge of the Beaufort Sea), ADF&G photo, on 21 September 2003 (Puryear 2022). Although I thought it might have been one of four light-colored bears tested by geneticists Lan and colleagues for their 2016 paper (Lan et al. 2016), Riley Woodford at ADF&G told me via email that this bear was not part of a research project and wasn’t sampled.
Apparently, the photo was taken by the staffer who saw the grizzly digging for roots and thought it was a beautiful bear!
Compare the coloring on this blonde bear to the image below from the known 2nd generation polar bear hybrid shot in Ulukhaktok in the second part of this post on wild hybrids.
Blonde grizzly, Sag River, Alaska, not tested. ADF&G photo.
From the Alaska Peninsula (well outside polar bear territory), the grizzly cub shown below, next to its typically-coloured sibling, has ‘dirty feet and face’ markings but is otherwise very light all over. Photo courtesy Tom Walker, with permission:
A slightly different pattern seen in a blonde grizzly is shown in the photo below, from an article by ADF&G researcher Riley Woodford (2020), of a bear spotted in Berners Bay, Alaska (on the SE Alaska mainland, about 50 miles north of Juneau). It has a pronounced dark line running along the midline of its back that runs up onto its forehead.
Similar to the animal above is a very pale female grizzly spotted near Lake Louise in Banff National Park in the Canadian Rockies shown below, from Parks Canada. There is video of this bear here, taken in 2022. Note the similar dark, mid-line stripe.
At the other extreme, the grizzly shown below was taken on sea ice north of Banks Island, in the western Canadian Arctic by Andrew Derocher in 2014 during field work for a paper authored by two of his students, Jodie Pongracz and Evan Richardson (Pongracz et al. 2017). Even this grizzly has some light shading.
All of these wild examples are crosses between a female polar bear and male grizzly, or between one of those hybrid females and a male grizzly.
This first hybrid bear (above) was shot by a hunter near Ulukhaktok on Victoria Island in the western Canadian Arctic, see map below. Notice the dark rings around the bear’s eyes but overall light coat. All of the wild hybrids shown here came from the same area around Victoria Island and Banks Island.
Below is another potential hybrid example, photographed by Jodie Pongracz during her field work on the recent hybrids (Pongracz et al. 2017). Note the dark rings around the eyes, slightly muddy-looking feet and the remnant of a dark line down the centre of its back. This animal was spotted in 2012 but was not sampled and is therefore only a “suspected” hybrid. However, its markings are very similar to the hybrid shot in 2006.
Below is photo of a taxidermy mount of a confirmed second generation grizzly X polar bear hybrid (the product of a hybrid female, whose mother was a polar bear that mated with a male grizzly). It was shot in 2010, again near the community of Ulukhaktok on Victoria Island.
Taxidermy mount of a 2nd generation grizzly X polar bear hybrid shot in 2010, that is installed at the Ulukhaktok airport, Victoria Island. Wikipedia photo.
The original polar bear female responsible for all of the hybrids in the area, who had mated with two different grizzly males over the years, was shot in 2012 along with her two hybrid cubs. The brief spate of hybridization events ended in 2014 when the last female hybrid was shot along with her three 2nd generation, back-crossed-to-grizzly, male cubs.
No more hybrids have been documented in the area since. I discuss these natural hybridization events in detail in my book.
Hybrids in captivity
The photos below show the offspring (one male, one female) of one of the few known instances of mating between a polar bear male and a brown bear (grizzly) female, born at the Osnabruck Zoo, Germany in 2004 (Preuss et al. 2009), after being kept together for 24 years. This is the opposite cross documented in wild-born hybrids. In my book, I discuss the behavioural differences between the two species–and between the two sexes–that would prevent this pairing from happening in the wild, except under the rarest of circumstances.
The coats of these hybrids look a bit darker viewed from the side, as shown below:
Bottom line: Because blonde grizzlies often look similar to polar bear hybrids and can appear in areas where hybridization is known to occur, genetic testing is required to confirm whether a suspected wild hybrid is indeed a grizzly X polar bear cross. The critical question of whether hybridization with grizzlies has played a huge part in the evolutionary history of the polar bear, as some geneticists insist, is an issue I address in my book.
References
Doupé, J.P., England, J.H., Furze, M. and Paetkau, D. 2007. Most northerly observation of a grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) in Canada: photographic and DNA evidence from Melville Island, Northwest Territories. Arctic 60:271-276. http://arctic.synergiesprairies.ca/arctic/index.php/arctic/article/view/219
Lan, T., Cheng, J., Ratan, A., et al.,including Lindqvist, C. 2016. Genome-wide evidence for a hybrid origin of modern polar bears. bioRxiv 047498. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/047498v1
Lan, T., Leppälä, K., Tomlin, C., et al., including Lindqvist, C. 2022. Insights into bear evolution from a Pleistocene polar bear genome. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 119(24):e2200016119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2200016119
Pongracz, J.D., Paetkau, D., Branigan, M., et al. 2017. Recent hybridization between a polar bear and grizzly bears in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic 70:151–160. https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic4643
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