Trust the Experts? It’s a Bad Bet

“The internet will have no more economic impact than the fax machine,” said Nobel laureate Paul Krugman. U.S. intelligence insisted the Afghan government would hold for months after the American withdrawal. It fell in eleven days. Military analysts around the world predicted Kyiv would fall within seventy-two hours in February 2022. It never did. The media lined up to predict that “Harry Potter” would flop because kids no longer read. Harry Potter sold half a billion copies.

An illustrated scientist with a mustache, wearing a lab coat and glasses, looking stressed while sitting at a desk cluttered with papers and laboratory equipment, including a microscope and glass flasks.

From Watts Up With That?

By Mitzi Perdue

“The internet will have no more economic impact than the fax machine,” said Nobel laureate Paul Krugman. U.S. intelligence insisted the Afghan government would hold for months after the American withdrawal. It fell in eleven days. Military analysts around the world predicted Kyiv would fall within seventy-two hours in February 2022. It never did. The media lined up to predict that “Harry Potter” would flop because kids no longer read. Harry Potter sold half a billion copies.

These were not fringe voices. These were the crowned heads of their domains, credentialed, lauded, confident experts. Their expertise was real, but their predictions were wrong.

Why are experts so often and so publicly wrong?

The Fox and the Hedgehog Problem

The answer comes from the ancient Greek poet Archilochus, whose wisdom still matters today: “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.”

Hedgehogs are deep specialists. They master one domain, seeing the world through a narrow lens. Their training encourages a single track that says double down, go deep, defend your turf.

• Foxes are integrators, generalists who pull ideas from different fields and adapt as reality demands. Foxes do not just tolerate ambiguity; they thrive in it.

Science Measures the Problem with Hedgehogs

Psychologist Philip Tetlock spent twenty years tracking expert predictions about world events. In his two-decade study, Tetlock catalogued more than twenty-eight thousand expert predictions and found that experts were slightly less accurate than a random coin toss.

The questions he posed were simple ones with yes or no answers. For example, would the Soviet Union collapse in five years? Would a major war break out? Again and again, the hedgehogs, the deep experts, failed dramatically. The generalists, however, did substantially better than chance. Their secret was breadth of perspective and adaptability, the classic traits of foxes.

Experts failed because of tunnel vision. Like photographers using a telephoto lens, hedgehogs saw only a narrow slice of reality. Foxes, with a wide-angle view, caught the crucial details on the periphery, the details specialists ignored.

Why This Pattern Persists and Why It Is Dangerous

The deeper someone goes into a field, the more their framework, their one big thing, becomes their only lens. There’s the ever-present danger that new information will be sifted to fit what they already believe. In both science and academia, the native habitat of experts, there is the danger that promotions or tenure or funding will go to the practitioners who agree with an existing consensus. 

Some say, only half jokingly, that science advances one funeral at a time. They say this because once someone holds a particular view, that view can become part of their identity, and they will wall off anything that contradicts it. When entire disciplines fall victim to this kind of thinking, you get the worst effects of hedgehog thinking. You get a whole field in which brilliant people are confidently yet spectacularly wrong.

Journalists: Foxes in a Hedgehog World

So where do we find foxes? One place is journalists. The best journalists are forced to be foxes. Every day, they deal with conflicting accounts, unexpected outcomes, and situations where things they were sure of turn out not to be so.

Journalists remind the public, often at great personal risk, that truth is messy and theory must bow to evidence. Their gift is not perfection but rather curiosity, adaptability, and the humility to revise when the facts change. Journalists add the complexity that specialists often remove. In a world flooded with confident error, the fox mind is an antidote.

Experts are often right, but they are also often wrong. We need credentialed authorities because their deep knowledge helps us make sense of complexity. But when it comes to prediction, seek out foxes, that is, the generalists and synthesizers, because their broad perspective and adaptability make them better at spotting large patterns and recognizing new realities. In the end, the wisest guide is not the hedgehog who knows one big thing but the fox who pays attention to everything.

This article was originally published by RealClearScience and made available via RealClearWire.

Octopus Energy ramps up electric car charging costs

Britain’s biggest energy provider is raising the cost of charging electric cars in a fresh blow to drivers.

A silver electric car parked at a charging station next to a blue truck, with a city skyline in the background.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Philip Bratby

Oh dear!

From the Telegraph:

Headline from the Telegraph: 'Octopus Energy ramps up electric car charging costs' by James Titcomb.

Britain’s biggest energy provider is raising the cost of charging electric cars in a fresh blow to drivers.

Octopus Energy said it will restrict its cut-price electric vehicle (EV) tariff from the new year, in a move that could cost some drivers hundreds of pounds annually.

It comes amid rising household electricity prices and as EV owners face new taxes that have put the Government’s net zero targets under pressure.

Octopus’s Intelligent Go tariff is Britain’s most popular EV plan, used by 260,000 drivers – or more than one in 10 EV owners. It allows motorists to enjoy cheap household energy when their car is charging, significantly cutting the cost of running an electric vehicle.

However, the company has written to customers telling them that discounted charging will be limited to six hours a day from January.

Limiting use of cheap charging rates is likely to drive up energy bills, since motorists will pay peak rates roughly four times higher when they wish to charge their car for longer periods.

Full story here.

The whole EV tariff is a big con anyway. What you save on night time EV charging is lost through higher day tariffs.

The EV tariff is set at 8.5/kWh between 0.30 and 5.30 am, based on the typical Octopus Go package. My standard rate is 23.45p/kWh, so ostensibly I could save about £300 on charging an EV.

However, the Octopus Go rate for the rest of the day is 29.37p/kWh. Based on my current usage, I would have to pay an extra £285 pa. Standing charges are also £17 higher with Octopus Go.

Of course, if you need a full charge for your EV, it would take longer than five hours, incurring yet more cost.

The only way I could save money is if I switched loads of appliances on after midnight.

Claim: The USA Securing Critical Mineral Supply Chains Threatens the Global Climate

Apparently, the USA has to stay dependent on China for Rare Earths, otherwise the planet will suffer a climate catastrophe.

Image showing the flags of the United States and China with a pile of minerals in the foreground, symbolizing the global competition for critical minerals.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Apparently, the USA has to stay dependent on China for Rare Earths, otherwise the planet will suffer a climate catastrophe.

Global race to secure critical minerals for weapons threatens climate, warns report

Study reveals US earmarked billions to stockpile critical minerals for military use, including precision-guided weaponry and AI-driven warfare

Matthew Taylor and Oliver Milman
Thu 4 Dec 2025 23.00 AEDT

The accelerating global arms race is hindering climate action as critical minerals that are key to a sustainable future are being diverted to make the latest military hardware, according to a report

The study from the Transition Security Project – a joint US and UK venture – reveals how the Pentagon is stockpiling huge stores of critical minerals that are needed for a range of climate technologies including solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles and battery storage.

It found that since the US president, Donald Trump, passed his “one big beautiful bill” earlier this year, the Pentagon – through its National Defense Stockpile programme – has earmarked billions of dollars to secure a growing list of critical minerals for use in military hardware – from precision-guided weaponry and advanced communication systems to an emerging arsenal of military technologies such as “AI-driven autonomous warfare platforms”.

Khem Rogaly, co-director of Transition Security Project, said: “The Pentagon’s trillion dollar budget supports a global infrastructure designed for US military domination, not national security. Using precious resources to feed the expanding military industrial complex, rather than addressing the existential threat of the climate crisis, demonstrates the global insecurity produced by the Pentagon.”

…Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/dec/04/critical-minerals-military-us-pentagon-climate-crisis

The executive summary of the study;

Mining for War: Assessing the Pentagon’s Mineral Stockpile

How can the Pentagon’s energy transition mineral stockpiles be repurposed toward the green transition?

4 December 2025 
Lorah Steichen

Executive Summary

Driven by concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities amid escalating great power competition with China, the Pentagon is accelerating efforts to secure access to the so-called critical minerals, which are essential to military industries. Central to this push is a ramped-up effort to stockpile these materials within the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) National Defense Stockpile. The Pentagon’s expanding demand for critical minerals risks diverting vital resources away from civilian decarbonisation initiatives and accelerating militarised competition at a time when global collaboration is essential for a just climate transition. When industrial strategy is shaped by military and national security priorities, it not only entrenches geopolitical conflict but also distorts pathways for equitable climate action, redirecting public resources and state capacity away from the broader demands of rapid and just decarbonisation. This briefing examines how the Pentagon’s role in mineral supply chains, particularly through stockpiling, challenges the global energy transition.

Key findings:

  • Since the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which earmarked billions of dollars to bolster the National Defense Stockpile, the DLA has solicited contracts to stockpile a growing list of critical minerals, including several materials essential to the energy transition.
  • The DLA plans to stockpile almost 7,500 metric tons of cobalt. That amount of cobalt could be used instead to produce 80.2 gigawatt hours of battery capacity — more than double existing energy storage.
  • The DLA’s planned cobalt and graphite stockpiles could be used instead to produce approximately 100,000 electric buses — fifteen times more than are currently in operation across the United States.

…Read more: https://transitionsecurity.org/mining-for-war/

One of the recommendations is to improve relations with China, rather than trying to secure independent sources of critical minerals;

…

4. Foster global solidarity

Build international cooperation, including coordination with China on climate technology collaboration to reduce duplication in supply chains, lower mining demand and ease geopolitical tensions impacting mineral markets.

…Read more: same link as above

The About Page of Transition Security Project, a group I never heard of before, contains the following acknowledgement: We are grateful for the support of Polden Puckham Charitable Foundation, Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust and Rockefeller Brothers Fund. We only accept funding from charitable foundations and trade unions.

The Polden Puckham Charitable Foundation seems to be a small affair, but one of the biggest donors to the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust in 2024 was the UK branch of DeSmog. Desmog is a significant international green energy pressure group founded by James Hoggan.

A chart displaying the ten largest grants in 2024, highlighting contributions to organizations such as DeSmog UK, as well as various projects focused on sustainable futures and other initiatives.
Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust Funding 2024.. DeSmog’s contribution has been hiighted.

The Rockefeller Brothers Fund, the third listed contributor, has some interesting connections to China according to the Washington Examiner.

Rockefeller Brothers Fund spent past four years pumping cash into Chinese government-linked groups

By Robert Schmad

The primary philanthropic arm of the influential Rockefeller family has given millions of dollars to arms of the Chinese government as well as organizations with strong links to the Chinese Communist Party.

Between April 2020 and August 2024, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund donated $7.4 million to organizations that are either part of the Chinese government, led by members of the CCP, or engaged in partnerships with China, according to a Washington Examiner analysis of grant records. The bulk of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund’s philanthropic activity in China went toward assisting Beijing in meeting its goals for green energy production and transition.

…Read more: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/3248834/rockefeller-brothers-fund-cash-chinese-government-linked-groups/

I’m not accusing Transition Security of writing a report to order for China. From what I saw when living in Britain, most UK academics live and breath hatred and contempt for the USA, and admiration for China. Such sentiments are very much a mainstream view in UK academia, just as they are in some sectors of US academia. There are plenty of Western academics who would willingly express such views as honestly held opinions.

It does however seem interesting that money from an organisation with apparent strong links to China, along with money from a green energy linked organisation, may be filtering through into the hands of Western academics who express support for globalist policies which would hurt the USA and benefit China.

But I’m sure it is just one of those coincidences, right?

Electric Car Demand Sinks as Drivers Face Pay-Per-Mile Tax

Demand for electric cars has slumped as Rachel Reeves prepares to hit them with a new pay-per-mile tax.

A stylized electric car surrounded by a cloud of dust and charging cables, symbolizing the challenges and changes in the electric vehicle market.

From The Daily Sceptic

By Will Jones

Demand for electric cars has slumped as Rachel Reeves prepares to hit them with a new pay-per-mile tax. The Telegraph has more.

Electric vehicle (EV) sales grew at their slowest rate in two years in November, at just 3.6%, according to figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

Mike Hawes, the Chief Executive of the SMMT, tied the slowdown to the Budget and its long build-up.

He said: “Even in a fragile market, zero-emission vehicle uptake continues to rise, which is exactly what we need. But the weakest growth for almost two years – ahead of the Government announcing a new tax on EVs – should be seen as a wake-up call that a sustained increase in demand for EVs cannot be taken for granted.

“We should be taking every opportunity to encourage drivers to make the switch, not punishing them for doing so, else the ambitions of Government and industry will be thwarted.”

The Chancellor announced a new pay-per-mile road tax for EVs in last week’s Budget. The levy will charge drivers of electric cars 3p per mile when it comes into force in April 2028 – costing them around £250 a year on average.

News of the policy was first revealed by the Telegraph on November 6th.

The change is meant to make up for lost fuel duty and to start bringing EVs into line with petrol and diesel vehicles. A typical petrol car driver currently pays around £600 per year in fuel duty, which is effectively a tax on distance travelled.

However, the car industry has warned that the new tax risks damaging demand for EVs, which are more expensive to buy than petrol alternatives.

The number of EVs sold climbed to 39,965 in November. Fully electric cars made up 26.4% of all new car sales in November, up from 25.1% a year ago. The SMMT said the recently introduced electric car grants supported sales.

However, the proportion of EV sales still falls short of the 28% annual target. Carmakers who fail to meet this level risk fines.

Worth reading in full.

Supreme Court should not let climate lawfare set U.S. energy policy

Climate lawfare is a Big Business. State, county and city lawyers have filed some 30 lawsuits, alleging that oil companies misrepresented the impacts of their products and caused billions of dollars in climate and weather damages.

An artistic rendering of the United States Supreme Court building, showcasing its iconic columns and steps with a reflection on the ground.

From CFACT

By Paul Driessen

Climate lawfare is a Big Business. State, county and city lawyers have filed some 30 lawsuits, alleging that oil companies misrepresented the impacts of their products and caused billions of dollars in climate and weather damages.

After being approached by EarthRights International, Boulder and Boulder County, Colorado joined San Miguel County in April 2018 to sue Suncor Energy and ExxonMobil.

Leaving out the hurricanes and rising seas emphasized by coastal litigants, plaintiffs’ 105-page complaint alleges that the oil companies have severely harmed their property, health and safety, by causing higher temperatures, more droughts and wildfires, and dwindling snowpack that adversely affects water supplies and the farming and skiing industries.

They want a trial by local jurors and seek billions of dollars to compensate their jurisdictions for past and future damages and costs, evaluate and mitigate climate change impacts, abate and remediate its hazards, and compensate them for decreased agricultural and urban property values.

Defendants argue that the case raises major, complicated national and even international issues and therefore belongs in federal, not state courts. But after years of legal wrangling, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled in May 2025 that the lawsuit could indeed proceed in state court.

So now Suncor and ExxonMobil have petitioned the US Supreme Court to review the case. Plaintiffs strongly oppose this. But there are compelling reasons why the Supremes should move it to federal venues, after declining earlier lawsuits that they said did not present a ripe or perfect case for review.

Fifty-plus years ago, I lived in Boulder and Denver and often went downhill and cross-country skiing. We had variable snow seasons: early and long, late and short, great snowpack or rocks. Back then the mantra was global cooling and a new ice age, but it later shifted to “global warming” when average global temperatures rose slightly, and finally to the all-encompassing “climate change” narrative.

I saw the aftermath of Colorado’s worst natural disaster ever, the 1976 Big Thompson flood. I witnessed other monster rainfalls, droughts and dust storms, and multiple wildfires. Decades-long Anasazi droughts underscore Nature’s destructive forces centuries ago.

Plaintiffs cannot possibly make a convincing historical or scientific case that today’s climate and weather are unusual or unprecedented. Nor can they separate natural forces and effects from fossil fuel or other manmade influences.

Team Boulder claims its case involves only local damages, issues, legal claims and remedies. However, ExxonMobil and Suncor production and refining activities, sales, emissions and alleged climate impacts are hardly confined to two counties or even the State of Colorado. The lawsuit’s effects would ripple like tsunamis across the USA and world.

Indeed, current and former county attorneys and officials have said the primary goals of this litigation include imposing “an indirect carbon tax” on defendants’ products; “raising the price” of those products so that they become too expensive for most families; curtailing fossil fuel use; and effecting “systems-level change” to America’s energy, economic and social systems.

The products include transportation fuels for Colorado and US cars, trucks, tractors and aircraft; natural gas to generate electricity for lights, computers, medical equipment, and lifesaving heating and air conditioning; and petrochemical feedstocks for over 6,000 essential products, including paints, plastics, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, fertilizers, and skis, ski boots and clothing of all descriptions.

Climate activists have been unable to enact national legislation to curb or eliminate the use of coal, oil or natural gas – or persuade Congress to ratify international treaties that compel all countries to slash their fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions. Climate lawfare, via local and state courts, has thus become a central tactic for imposing their radical agenda, controlling our lives and reducing our living standards.

They know COP30 was an abject failure and overtures to “climate cataclysms” are falling on deaf ears.

They want to avoid federal courts and lawyers that might closely examine their far-fetched claims from national, international, scientific and economic perspectives. They know a US Supreme Court ruling in defendants’ favor would likely end any option for them to circumvent federal legislative and judicial processes.

Climateers also know that US states that enforce wind and solar power mandates have electricity prices at least two times higher than those that have not. Worse, residential prices in climate-obsessed Britain, Germany and other European countries are 2-3 times higher than the US average: 30 to 40+ cents per kilowatt-hour in Europe versus 15 cents in the USA.

They know (but vigorously deny) that German, British and other European electricity prices have caused their industries to lose millions of jobs and left families unable to heat their homes properly, leading to thousands of needless deaths every winter. Iberia’s peninsula-wide blackout in April 2025 proved reliance on wind and solar power can be disastrous, even deadly.

It’s hardly surprising that no other city or county has joined the lawsuit. That Colorado’s governor and former governor have refused to support it. Or that Colorado’s own attorney general joined 14 other state AGs in signing an amicus curiae brief opposing a very similar suit by California cities.

The AGs argued that cities should not be able to use the common nuisance law to “harness the power and prestige of federal courts to remedy global climate change.” They also noted that: “questions of global climate change and its effects … are political questions not suited for resolution by any court.” Indeed, such judicial interference would trample on “Congress’s carefully calibrated process of cooperative federalism where states work in tandem with EPA to administer the federal Clean Air Act.”

These issues are for Congress and the Executive Branch to debate, balance competing needs and interests, and decide at the national level. In dismissing New York City’s similar climate lawsuit, Federal Judge John Keenan made the same points.

Perhaps most importantly, over the past few years, the US Supreme Court has significantly curtailed the powers of federal agencies. In West Virginia v. EPA (2022), it held that, in the absence of clear legislative authority, government agencies cannot unilaterally issue regulations that have “major” economic or political significance.

Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (2023) reversed the “Chevron deference” rule. Silent or ambiguous statutory texts no longer give administrative agencies unfettered power to interpret laws in ways that let them increase control over people’s lives and livelihoods.

Cities, counties and states certainly should not have greater power than federal agencies – or be able to employ common law rulings – to control America’s fossil fuel production, use and products, in a futile attempt to control Earth’s perpetually changing climate. Especially when the vast majority of global greenhouse gas emissions now come from China, India, Russia and other countries.

The climate litigation charade must end.

Let’s hope the Supreme Court agrees that Boulder’s lawsuit is an excellent opportunity to terminate frivolous climate lawfare, expand on the guidance it provided in these two previous cases – and end attempts by climate activists to impose destructive national policies through local and state courts.

Building on Monmouth’s Flood Plains

Building on flood plains is now nothing less than a national scandal.

Aerial view of a flooded area in Monmouth, highlighting submerged buildings and vehicles surrounded by orange water, with trees and structures partially visible.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Steven Bennett left this comment on the Welsh rainfall post today:

Comment discussing flooding in Monmouth and its relation to climate change.

Building on flood plains is now nothing less than a national scandal. According to Kerseys Solicitors:

As there is growing pressure to find sites for housing, flood plain land is some of the cheapest available to developers.

A flood plain is an area of flat land near a river, stream, lake or other open waterway that is subject to flooding when there is significant rainfall.

Despite warnings from the Environment Agency and the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) between 2001 and 2011, 200,000 new houses were built on the flood plain and there are almost 500,000 homes that have been given planning permission and are waiting to be built on the flood plain.

200,000 in ten years is an astonishing number, given we probably did not build much more a million new homes in that time. Many of those 500,000 in planning will doubtlessly have been built since Kerseys report.

Moreover, developers are still allowed to build on flood plains in low and medium risk zones, as long as they do “flood risk assessments”.

Not only do houses on flood plains flood (!), but the concreting over of large housing estates means that vast amounts of water get washed straight down drains and into rivers at great speed. Flood plains are no longer able to fulfil their function of storing water, which prevents flooding down stream.

Over Monnow has been well known as a flood plain for years and is marked by the area in red, where flood warnings were issued for during Storm Claudia:

Most of Over Monnow sits at an altitude of 20m, the same as the river bank next to the bridge:

Map showing the Overmonnow area in Monmouth, highlighting flood plains and local streets.
A color-coded elevation chart showing various altitudes in meters, ranging from 11m to 103m.

According to Grok:

New Housing Estates in Over Monnow, Monmouth, Since 2000

Over Monnow (often referred to as Wyesham in planning documents) is a residential area north of the River Monnow in Monmouth, Monmouthshire, Wales (postcode NP25). This ward, part of the broader Monmouth town area, has seen steady residential development since 2000, driven by Monmouthshire County Council’s Local Development Plans. Developments have focused on family homes, affordable housing, and infill sites, with some delays due to environmental concerns like phosphate levels in the Rivers Wye and Usk until upgrades to local wastewater facilities were completed around 2024–2025.

Key drivers include:

  • The 2013–2022 Local Development Plan, which allocated sites for ~450 homes on Wonastow Road (phased builds starting mid-2010s).
  • The emerging Replacement Local Development Plan (RLDP) to 2033, emphasizing 50% affordable housing and net-zero standards, building on ~3,700 homes completed or in pipeline since 2018 county-wide (with a portion in Over Monnow).

Below is a summary of major housing estates/developments built (or substantially completed) since 2000 in Over Monnow. This is based on planning records, council reports, and developer announcements. Note: “Estates” here refers to planned residential developments of 10+ homes; smaller infills are noted where relevant. Ongoing/planned sites are included for context, as some phases span into 2025.

Table summarizing development details for Kingswood Gate on Wonastow Road, including its completion dates, number of homes, and key details about the estate.

Notice the reference to Watery Lane! I wonder why it is called that?

Kingswood Gate sits at the same 20m altitude as the rest of Over Monnow. All the rain that fell there had nowhere else to go but down the drains and into the Monnow that had already burst its banks. It has nowhere else to go.

A slightly wider view of the land around Monmouth makes clear that most of old Monmouth was built a few meters above river level – the paler blues and greens. (The 20m point, by the way, marks the new Kingswood estate. Many of the houses to the east have obviously been built in recent decades as well, judging from Google view)

A map showing the area of Over Monnow in Monmouth, Wales, with a highlighted elevation of 20 meters.
https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-gfqgp/Monmouth/

The main exception were a few  riverside streets. You don’t have to be a genius to work out where the water goes when the Wye and Monnow burst their banks.

It has got nothing to do with climate change; it is a matter of geography.

Polar bears and Arctic Sea ice status

Positive news on the Arctic front as far as polar bears are concerned so far this year, with no reports of dead or dying bears, or of horrific attacks on humans that I’ve heard about. Not much to talk about but here’s what I’ve found.

A polar bear and its cub walking across a snow-covered landscape with mountains and ice formations in the background.

From polarbearscience

Positive news on the Arctic front as far as polar bears are concerned so far this year, with no reports of dead or dying bears, or of horrific attacks on humans that I’ve heard about. Not much to talk about but here’s what I’ve found.

A polar bear standing on a rocky surface, showcasing its thick white fur and strong physique.

Sea ice in Hudson Bay is forming rapidly while according to NSIDC, the Arctic Basin is filled with ice. Ice has also moved well into the Bering Sea, the Barents and Kara Seas, and Davis Strait. NSIDC say they have discontinued their monthly sea ice reports due to lack of funding, although under the current federal government administration, such budget cuts were likely tied to their inability to consistently produce these reports without pushing a human-caused climate change narrative of impending catastrophe.

Map of the Arctic region showing sea ice extent on December 6, 2025, with a total area of 10.7 million square kilometers.

We’ve heard nothing at all from the town of Churchill this year about how their season with polar bears went: they have not posted a single problem bear report on their website for the first time in years. Too busy to bother with keeping people informed for their safety or so few issues it would be embarassing to report?

Literally the only mention I found of how Western Hudson Bay polar bears are doing relative to sea ice formation this fall came from a Facebook post by a tour company on 30 November 2025:

A Facebook post from Great White Bear Tours announcing the freezing of Hudson Bay and Churchill River, mentioning polar bears moving to hunt with a photo of a cub looking back at its mother on the newly frozen ice.

The photo of a cub mentioned in the post was this one:

A polar bear cub stands on a sheet of ice in a snowy landscape, surrounded by ice and snow.

In Norway, biologists in charge of monitoring polar bear health finally updated their webpage at the end of September 2025, where they stated [my bold]:

“The population probably increased considerably during the years after hunting was banned in 1973, and new knowledge indicates that the population has not been reduced the last 10-15 years, in spite of a large reduction in available sea ice in the same period.“

Below is the data they provided for the body condition (i.e. fatness) of adult males 1993-2025, which for some reason they don’t reveal for adult females, even though we know that data is collected, as explained here (with references) – perhaps because instead of no trend, the trend for female fatness increased and that this is why the prognosis for the population is positive.

Box plot showing the condition index of adult polar bear males from 1993 to 2025, with varying values indicating changes in their health over the years.

Over in the Chukchi Sea, a similar admission that bears are doing well despite summer sea ice declines came in the form of a paper published in 2024 by Karyn Rode and colleagues [my highlights], pdf here, “Identifying indicators of polar bear population status”:

A document excerpt discussing monitoring trends in polar bear populations, focusing on the relationship between environmental factors and polar bear health during 2018-2022.

Climate Groups Falter, Bill Gates Recalibrates, But Al Gore Soldiers On

It’s been an interesting few weeks on the climate hysteria front. Organizations associated with climate alarmism have recently found themselves engulfed in turmoil. Bill Gates has recanted earlier predictions of gloom and doom. But the Father of Climate Panic, former Vice President Al Gore, remains steadfast, if increasingly marginalized.

A man in a suit stands on an icy landscape with a shocked expression, under the text 'The Arctic will be Ice Free 2013.'

From Watts Up With That?

By Gary Abernathy

This article was originally published at The Empowerment Alliance and is re-published here with permission. 

It’s been an interesting few weeks on the climate hysteria front. Organizations associated with climate alarmism have recently found themselves engulfed in turmoil. Bill Gates has recanted earlier predictions of gloom and doom. But the Father of Climate Panic, former Vice President Al Gore, remains steadfast, if increasingly marginalized.

Let’s start with probably the best-known environmental organization in the world, the Sierra Club. According to a recent New York Times report, the club thrived when it seemed laser-focused on the environment. But then, during Donald Trump’s first term, “its leaders sought to expand far beyond environmentalism, embracing other progressive causes. Those included racial justice, labor rights, gay rights, immigrant rights and more.”

As a result of the effort to morph into a catch-all for a myriad of social justice causes, the Times noted that by 2022 the Sierra Club “had exhausted its finances and splintered its coalition.” By August, according to the Times, the number of Sierra Club “champions” – “a group that included dues-paying members as well as supporters who had donated, signed petitions or participated in events” – was “down about 60 percent from its high in 2019.”

Despite the upheaval, few lessons seem learned. The Times noted that “in recent weeks, supporters who clicked on the group’s website for ‘current campaigns’ were presented with 131 petitions, some out of date, like calls to support clean-energy funding that Mr. Trump has already gutted, or to support a voting-rights bill that died in 2023.”

Asked whether he had any regrets, the club’s current board president, Patrick Murphy, summoned the spirit of Kamala “not a thing comes to mind” Harris and replied, “I have a hard time pinpointing how I believe we should have made different choices.” Alrighty then.

Also falling on hard times is 350.org, which first gained notoriety for its successful efforts to block the Keystone XL oil pipeline during the Obama administration. As Politico reported this month, the group “will ‘temporarily suspend programming’ in the U.S. and other countries amid funding woes.”

Executive Director Anne Jellema said 350.org “had suffered a 25 percent drop in income for its 2025 and 2026 fiscal years, compelling it to halt operations,” and would subsequently reduce its global staff by about 30 percent.

“The group had endured economic hardship over the years, including problems of financial management and several rounds of layoffs that eroded its influence,” Politico reported. Jellema said the organization was facing its challenges “with our ambition intact.” But apparently not much else.

An implosion of a different kind is from the world of “green banking.” NBA star Kawhi Leonard’s endorsement contract with the pro-environment group Aspiration is alleged to have been a vehicle for Leonard and the Los Angelas Clippers to skirt NBA salary cap rules.

As reported by ESPN, Aspiration Partners was a company founded in 2013 to provide “socially-conscious and sustainable banking services and investment products.” Their slogan was, “Do Well. Do Good.” Catchy. Operating like an environmentally conscious digital bank, Aspiration promised to “never fund fossil fuel projects like pipelines, oil rigs and coalmines.” The company’s products included “an option to plant a tree with every purchase roundup.”

According to ESPN, Clippers owner Steve Ballmer invested $50 million in Aspiration. The subsequent allegation is that Leonard signed a $28 million endorsement deal with Aspiration “as a way to circumvent the league’s salary cap.” Ballmer has denied any knowledge of the deal, according to the report. Leonard has also denied any wrongdoing.

ESPN reported that Aspiration filed for bankruptcy in March, and co-founder Joe Sanberg pleaded guilty to two counts of wire fraud after “federal prosecutors said Sanberg defrauded investors and lenders out of $248 million by fraudulently obtaining loans, falsifying bank and brokerage statements and concealing that he was the source of some revenue booked by the company.”

The NBA is investigating. How many trees Aspiration planted is unknown.

To add insult to injury comes what appears to be an about-face from no less a dedicated environmentalist than Bill Gates. For decades, Gates has been a leader in the movement to reduce carbon emissions. But last month he caused a stir when he declared that climate change “will not lead to humanity’s demise.”

It’s heartening when others finally catch on. Earlier this year, the climate group funded by Gates, Breakthrough Energy, laid off dozens of employees in the U.S. and Europe “as it pulls back from public policy advocacy work that was a cornerstone of its mission,” as the industry site Energy Connects reported.

Sadly, such admirable retrospection will likely never occur to Al Gore, arguably history’s leading figure in propagating climate hysteria and someone who has reportedly made a fortune from his climate alarmism. Gore’s reaction to Gates’ newfound enlightenment was a predictable temper tantrum during which he speculated that Gates had succumbed to “bullying” by President Trump.

Takes one to know one – Gore has often been accused of bullying those not on board with his climate crusade.

In an increasingly splintered movement that once marched in lockstep, it may be that someday only Al Gore will remain – the last true believer of a story he largely authored, perched atop his high horse at his solar-powered compound.

Gary Abernathy is a longtime newspaper editor, reporter and columnist. He was a contributing columnist for the Washington Post from 2017-2023 and a frequent guest analyst across numerous media platforms. He is a contributing columnist for The Empowerment Alliance, which advocates for realistic approaches to energy consumption and environmental conservation.

This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and made available via RealClearWire.