The world will not stop burning coal and using oil

John Kerry tilts at reality like Don Quixote tilted at windmills. While the 28th UN-related Conference of Parties (COP 28) was wrapping up in Dubai, Americaโ€™sย Special Presidential Envoy for Climateย fumed about funding and building new coal-fired electricity generating plants. He declared himself a โ€œmilitantโ€ opponent of coal. He very personally decried those who would build a new coal plant.

By Don Ritter

John Kerry tilts at reality like Don Quixote tilted at windmills. While the 28th UN-related Conference of Parties (COP 28) was wrapping up in Dubai, Americaโ€™s Special Presidential Envoy for Climate fumed about funding and building new coal-fired electricity generating plants. He declared himself a โ€œmilitantโ€ opponent of coal. He very personally decried those who would build a new coal plant.

Yet he knows full well that China has funded and built over a hundred coal-fired plants in the past year alone and is building a staggering 234 gigawatts of coal-fired generation. Each gigawatt of generation is equivalent to a new 1000 megawatt coal plant.

Those mind-boggling numbers and the respective increase in emissions of CO2 dwarf hard-won CO2 reductions in the U.S. and Europe. China alone is the mega, indeed, giga windmill Kerry is tilting at.

COP 28 was hosted by the oil-rich United Arab Emirates. The leader of a giant Abu Dhabi-owned oil company was the conference chairman who actually advocated for the importance of fossil fuels in the future of the global economy, stating that โ€œthereโ€™s no science to support demands for a phase out of fossil fuels.โ€

The next host country for COP 29 is another oil-wealth producer, Azerbaijan. The major petro-state producers in the Middle East plus Russia, Algeria, Guyana, Iran, Venezuela, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, and other nations are all looking to expand production for the foreseeable future.

The consuming world is paying them handsomely to do so. They may pay lip-service to a politically and publicly popular climate-change narrative, but given the global economic reality, there is no reason to believe that producers will ever give up their primary wealth creators, oil and gas, and for that matter, coal. Nor will the energy consuming nations, given the symbiosis between producers and consumers.

According to the UN, some 70,000 attended COP 28, with the wealthier, including Mr. Kerry, arriving on their jet-fuel consuming, CO2-creating private jets. The conference was a boon to Dubaiโ€™s tourist industry, and a remarkable destination for tourists. But, in the end, the COP 28 final statement incorporates only hortatory language to โ€œtransitionโ€ away from fossil fuels, not a pledge to โ€œphase-outโ€ fossil fuels.

Hard-core climate activists, led by Kerry, aggressively pursued โ€œphase-out languageโ€ but did not get it. That means China, India and developing nations all over the world will continue to burn coal to get their electricity.

The benefit for others

They will continue to need oil and gas to drive their cars, power their economies and use refined derivatives of oil and gas that are part of just about everything produced in the modern world. When John Kerry declares that there should be no coal plants โ€œpermitted anywhere in the world,โ€ his words are applied in fact only to the United States, not โ€œanywhere in the world.โ€

As a result of the COP 28, the big global CO2 emitters will still be able to produce fossil fuel-based wealth, while the Biden administration will continue to try to kill coal โ€” plus oil and gas to a lesser extent (for now) โ€” and thereby undermine Americaโ€™s industrial and manufacturing sectors and residential ratepayers here at home.

Never mind impending blackouts as coal and gas plants are prematurely โ€œretiredโ€ (83 gigawatts worth) resulting from of โ€œgreenโ€ government regulatory policies and massive taxpayer-funded programs to โ€œgo green.โ€ In the Pittsburgh region alone, two coal-fired power plants will be prematurely retired this year because new rules make them uneconomic โ€” rules handed down not from Harrisburg, but from Washington. Rules that pay no attention to how much the area needs that power.

States like Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky are hard hit by the governmentโ€™s war on coal โ€” a war that doesnโ€™t apply to miners in Russia, Brazil, India and China, to name just a few countries that live off coal.

The U.S. has some 450 years of coal reserves, the worldโ€™s largest. Pennsylvania has some of the finest bituminous coal in the world, coal that consuming and developing countries around the world covet. The state still has nearly 5,000 workers employed in the coal industry. And the administration wants to give it all up.

Diminishing the democracies

Coal is the major target now, but Kerry and company are coming for the CO2 emitted from natural gas next. Marcellus Shale, the largest shale formation in the country, providing natural gas and wealth to Pennsylvania and beyond, is at risk if the climate alarmists and regulatory bodies in Washington have their way.

With the still-developing world, led by China and India, rapidly expanding coal-fired power generation in addition to their increasing appetite for oil and natural gas, squeezing America on CO2 emissions simply makes no sense. Such a strategy only diminishes America and Europe, while empowering China, Russia, and the petro-states.

It cripples the worldโ€™s democracies while strengthening the authoritarians. And it does nothing to save the environment.

The postย The world will not stop burning coal and using oilย appeared first onย CFACT.

Australian government is coming for your Utes, SUVs and cheap fuel

Just before Christmas the government quietly put out new emissions rules they know Australians wonโ€™t like. โ€œTis the season for dropping press release bombs.

By Jo Nova

We elect an Australian government but get the EU rules

Just before Christmas the government quietly put out new emissions rules they know Australians wonโ€™t like. โ€œTis the season for dropping press release bombs.

Australia will adopt โ€˜Euro 6โ€™ fuel standard by late 2025

Jacob Greber, The Australian Financial Review

Tough new petrol standards will be introduced at the end of 2025, potentially increasing the cost of fuel while expanding consumer access to leading-edge, mostly European, ultra-efficient vehicles.

By forcing Australians to buy expensive, unreliable cars prone to exploding, the government will stop families going on holidays, burn down a few homes, and keep friends from visiting each other, unless the nation of petrol-heads keep driving their old cars and Utes, Cuba style. For all this pain, the new rules will โ€œslash 18 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissionsโ€ which is equivalent to taking 280,000 imaginary cars off the road, or cutting 0.15% of annual emissions from China. i.e. nothing.

All Peter Dutton, the opposition leader in Australia needs to do to win the next election is to stand up for drivers in Australia.

Apparently Australians need to import more EU cars to save German industry or something:

โ€ฆthe government aims to spur greater imports of vehicles that car makers currently do not sell in Australia because the fuel is too dirty for their highly calibrated engines.

The press release reads like it was written by the EU aristocratic snobs, not the Australian Labor Party.

This is no place for an EV.

The government will force you to subsidize the EVs while pretending the manufacturers are doing it:

The trick in the new Command Economy is to make devious rules that force the market to come up with strange and expensive ways to satisfy communist rules.

The new rules mean cars and light commercial vehicles sold from December 2025 will need to meet so-called โ€œEuro 6d noxious emissions standardsโ€. Years in the making, they are separate to a push by the government to introduce a โ€œfuel efficiency standardโ€ that would force car makers to sell more EVs by imposing penalties on the sales of higher-emitting vehicles such as utes, SUVs and four-wheel-drives.

In other words, if the punters buy the cars they want, and not the cars the government wants, then the prices of the โ€œlimitedโ€ number of popular cars will rise. The penalties that will have to be imposed by the car makers are really subsidies in disguise. They will add thousands in costs to the popular cars so they can use the extra profits to sell the unpopular cars at discount prices.

The net result is that billionaires will keep buying whatever they want to buy, and if itโ€™s an EV it will be subsidized by the workers, who will have to pay more for their own โ€œhigher emittingโ€ cars that will still be able to drive as far as the outer suburbs, or God forbid, a country town.

This is a boilerplate policy  that been copied from overseas. Itโ€™s a blueprint of the global billionaire class. It would mean newer smaller petrol cars will subsidize bigger EVโ€™s, and as Craig Kelly says, put lives at risk on country roads. The small car passengers will be more likely to die in crashes with cows, trees and heavier EVโ€™s. Momentum always wins. Or our children will only be able to drive cheap Chinese-EVโ€™s.

Any EV will be a car that the government and insurance companies can track, shut down, or spy on. (Read those plans here).

By golly, politicians can smoothly lie:

Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Catherine King said the changes would save lives.

โ€œThe changes, along with fuel efficiency standards are part of delivering cleaner, cheaper-to-run cars and tackling transport costs for Australian families and businesses,โ€ said Ms King.

 Time Australians stood up and paid attention.

Those elected are not on our side,
And their contempt for us barely hide,
As the truth slowly dawns,
That these globalist pawns,
Are all to the doom cult allied.

โ€” Ruairi

h/t to Ben Beattyย andย Craig Kelly

Roadkill in the Central Desert Highway | Both car photos by Jo either in the Great Victoria or the Gibson Desert.

James Hansen: 2023 Exposed Government Climate Action is Futile

Global Authoritarian Revolution? โ€œโ€ฆ young people may realise that they must take charge of their future. The turbulent status of todayโ€™s politics may provide opportunity โ€ฆโ€

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Global Authoritarian Revolution? โ€œโ€ฆ young people may realise that they must take charge of their future. The turbulent status of todayโ€™s politics may provide opportunity โ€ฆโ€

World will look back at 2023 as year humanity exposed its inability to tackle climate crisis, scientists say

Disastrous events included flash flooding in Africa and wildfires in Europe and North America

Jonathan Watts @jonathanwatts Sat 30 Dec 2023 01.26 AEDT

The hottest year in recorded history casts doubts on humanityโ€™s ability to deal with a climate crisis of its own making, senior scientists have said.

โ€ฆ

โ€œWhen our children and grandchildren look back at the history of human-made climate change, this year and next will be seen as the turning point at which the futility of governments in dealing with climate change was finally exposed,โ€ he said. โ€œNot only did governments fail to stem global warming, the rate of global warming actually accelerated.โ€

โ€ฆ

Now director of the climate programme at Columbia Universityโ€™s Earth Institute in New York, Hansen said the best hope was for a generational shift of leadership. โ€œThe bright side of this clear dichotomy is that young people may realise that they must take charge of their future. The turbulent status of todayโ€™s politics may provide opportunity,โ€ he said.

His comments are a reflection of the dismay among experts at the enormous gulf between scientific warnings and political action. It has taken almost 30 years for world leaders to acknowledge that fossil fuels are to blame for the climate crisis, yet this yearโ€™s United Nations Cop28 summit in Dubai ended with a limp and vague call for a โ€œtransition awayโ€ from them, even as evidence grows that the world is already heating to dangerous levels.

โ€ฆRead more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/29/world-will-look-back-at-2023-as-year-humanity-exposed-its-inability-to-tackle-climate-crisis

James Hansen has a track record when it comes to talking up authoritarianism โ€“ who can forget Hansenโ€™s absurd praise of the Chinese system in 2015, for the alleged advantage of Chinese Communism over Western democracies and republics, when it comes to addressing climate challenges?

โ€œI think we will get there because China is rational,โ€ Hansen says. โ€œTheir leaders are mostly trained in engineering and such things, they donโ€™t deny climate change and they have a huge incentive, which is air pollution. Itโ€™s so bad in their cities they need to move to clean energies. They realise itโ€™s not a hoax. But they will need co-operation.โ€Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/12/james-hansen-climate-change-paris-talks-fraud

Not that Iโ€™m denying this has been an interesting weather year in Australia.

The Aussie MET predicted dry conditions because of El Nino, and there have been dry periods, but there have also been some exceptional rainfall events, lots of water falling in normally dry inland areas in June and December, and probably other events Iโ€™ve forgotten.

This is likely just random chance โ€“ Australia is famed for its extreme weather, and weather forecasting in Australia is just as big a joke as most other places.

But what if the unusual El Nino rainfall in Australia is because of global warming? What if the โ€œnew normalโ€ is fewer prolonged droughts, more chaotic weather with shorter dry spells, and more rain, including in the parched interior of Australia?

In that case we would all be better off cancelling useless solar panels and wind turbines, and investing in flood and water management project, to mitigate the harm when a small ocean drops on our heads. And people could mitigate their own personal risks, by avoiding purchasing in dubious housing estates which look suspiciously like filled in river valleys, ditching the EVs and useless town automobiles, and instead buying long range diesel 4WD vehicles to better handle Australiaโ€™s increasingly neglected and flood prone roads, and increasingly unreliable, power cut prone fuel supplies.

Purchasing a 4WD diesel in Australia is becoming more a necessity than a choice, especially if you plan to do any rural driving. My recent Aussie driving holiday, I saw some truly appalling roads. A recent Grattan Institute Report found roads in Australia are full of potholes, in a poor state of repair. On my holiday there were lots of towns with no fuel, because of recent road or electricity disruptions.

Donโ€™t get me wrong, most of the towns I saw were friendly, we have good memories of visiting the Australian outback. But there was an exception. At one particularly remote toilet stop in far Western NSW I saw someone repairing an EV charger, in a boarded up town with lots of drunk aboriginals. Iโ€™ve since learned the town features in reports about places with intractable drug and alcohol issues. They didnโ€™t seem overtly hostile, but during the 5 minutes we stopped for a quick toilet break, two teenage boys did separate walk by reconnaissance of my 4WD. I can take a hint, they werenโ€™t very subtle about what they were doing. But if an EV driver attempted my route, with all the big distances between outback towns, there arenโ€™t a lot of other options for a recharge in places that remote.

The EV charger repair guy was happy. He was making a fortune being paid to repair that one EV charging station on a regular basis, he told me the kids kept vandalising it. He kept the back of his van locked while he was doing his repair. I did actually see one EV on my trip, heading in the opposite direction towards that town. Lets hope they got lucky.

Even in Sydney road quality seems to be deteriorating. I witnessed a respectable Darwin Award entry, council workers waste deep in rushing floodwaters in Sydney trying to clear the grating of a large blocked drain with a pry bar, during the middle of a deluge. The drains I saw exposed above the flood didnโ€™t look well maintained, and more than one drain had blown out its grating and was gushing water, because the downstream pipe was blocked. I bet those workers I saw bashing the drain grating in the middle of a flood wished their council had spent more money on drain maintenance before it started raining, instead of squeezing the road maintenance budgets so they could blow taxpayer cash on climate posturing, or whatever other nonsense caught the attention of incompetent local politicians.

I think James Hansen got one thing right, 2023 will be looked back on as a turning point, but it wonโ€™t be the year of children leading the global authoritarian climate revolution James Hansen seems to want. Instead, especially if we actually did breach 1.5C for much of this year.ย 2023 will be looked back on as the year the wild exaggerations of climate alarmists were exposed, the year people realised they should just go about their daily lives, do what is right for their families, buy a rugged automobile which can handle our poorly maintained roads, vote for politicians who get the basics right, like road maintenance, and ignore theย perennially wrong climate prophets of doom.


If you think Iโ€™m exaggerating about the state of Australiaโ€™s roads, the following is a video I shot earlier this year on the Fraser Coast. Do any of these roads look EV ready?

Spain pledges to phase out nuclear power by 2035

Spainย is aiming to close its nuclear plants by 2035, joining a small number of developed countries pledging aย nuclearย phaseout as others look to invest further into the energy source.

Byย Nancy Vu

Spain is aiming to close its nuclear plants by 2035, joining a small number of developed countries pledging a nuclear phaseout as others look to invest further into the energy source.

The government confirmed the plans,ย Reutersย reported, as it introduced energy measures relating to renewable energy. The shutdown of the plants will begin in 2027, and their deconstruction โ€” which is estimated to cost 20.2 billion euros, or $22.4 billion โ€” will be paid for by the plants’ operators, according to government officials. The Washington Examiner has the story.

Spainโ€™s nuclear fleet consists of seven operating reactors, generating about a fifth of its electricity.

Spain joins other nations, such asย Germanyย and Switzerland, in pledging to move away from nuclear power. Earlier this year, Germany closed down its last three remaining power plants after promising more than a decade ago to phase out nuclear energy.

In 2017, Switzerland voted to leave nuclear power behind but didnโ€™t set a concrete deadline to shut down its remaining plants. Earlier this year, the country planned to keep nuclear power plants in use longer than expected to help supply electricity amid fears of shortages.

Although Spain joins a raft of European countries in issuing its own nuclear phaseout promises, several nations, such as Switzerland, are opting to keep their plants open for longer in anticipation of increasing electricity demand and the current limited capacity provided by renewables.

France, Belgium, and Finland are alsoย looking to extendย the life of their reactors, while Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovenia have plans to build new plants.

Other countries that had pledged to phase out nuclear power include Denmark, Japan, Scotland, and Sweden, although some countries have reversed course in recent years.

Read the full story here.

Measuring Censorship in Science Is Challenging. Stopping it Is Harder Still

In aย new paperย for theย Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, we, alongside colleagues from a diverse range of fields, investigate the prevalence and extent of censorship and self-censorship in science.

From Watts Up With That?

By Musa al-Gharbi Nicole Barbaro

December 14, 2023

In a new paper for the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, we, alongside colleagues from a diverse range of fields, investigate the prevalence and extent of censorship and self-censorship in science.

Measuring censorship in science is difficult. Itโ€™s fundamentally about capturing studies that were never published, statements that were never made, possibilities that went unexplored and debates that never ended up happening. However, social scientists have come up with some ways to quantify the extent of censorship in science and research.

For instance, statistical tests can evaluate โ€œpublication biasโ€ โ€“ whether or not papers with findings tilting a specific way were systematically excluded from publication. Sometimes editors or reviewers may reject findings that donโ€™t cut the preferred direction with the preferred magnitude. Other times, scholars โ€œfile drawerโ€ their own papers that donโ€™t deliver statistically significant results pointing in the โ€œcorrectโ€ direction because they assume (often rightly) that their study would be unable to find a home in a respectable journal or because the publication of these findings would come at a high reputational cost. Either way, the scientific literature ends up being distorted because evidence that cuts in the โ€œwrongโ€ direction is systematically suppressed.

Audit studies can provide further insight. Scholars submit identical papers but change things that should not matter (like the authorโ€™s name or institutional affiliation) or reverse the direction of the findings (leaving all else the same) to test for systematic variance in whether the papers are accepted or rejected and what kinds of comments the reviewers offer based on who the author is or what they find. Other studies collect data on all papers submitted to particular journals in specific fields to test for patterns in whose work gets accepted or rejected and why. This can uncover whether editors or reviewers are applying standards inconsistently that shut out perspectives in a biased way.

Additionally, databases from organizations like the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression or PEN America track attempts to silence or punish scholars, alongside state policies or institutional rules that undermine academic freedom. These data can be analyzed to understand the prevalence of censorious behaviors, who partakes in them, who is targeted, how these behaviors vary across contexts, and what the trendlines look like over time.

Supplementing these behavioral measures, many polls and surveys ask academic stakeholders how they understand academic freedom, their experiences with being censored or observing censorship, the extent to which they self-censor (and about what), or their appetite for censoring others. These self-reports can provide additional context to the trends observed by other means โ€“ including and especially with respect to the question of why people engage in censorious behaviors.

One thing that muddies the waters, however, is that many scholars understand and declare themselves as victims of censorship when they have not, in fact, been censored.

For instance, rejection from a journal for legitimate reasons, such as poor scientific quality, is not censorship โ€“ although there could be censorship at play if the standards reviewers and editors hold papers to varies systematically depending on what authors find and which narratives the paper helps advance.

Likewise, itโ€™s not censorship if your work, upon publication, is widely trashed or ignored. No one is entitled to a positive reception.

Granted, peer responses to a paper may be unfair or a product of unfortunate biases. A hostile response to particular findings may dissuade other scholars from publishing similar results. And the reception of published work can have career implications for scholars: well-received works can be career enhancing, while poorly-received works have the opposite effect. Nonetheless, there is no censorship at play unless oneโ€™s scholarship is prevented from publication, or there are campaigns post-publication to punish the author for their study (through formal or informal channels) or have the work retracted or suppressed.

Work ignored upon publication has not been censored either. The overwhelming majority of published research receives few reads, even fewer citations (especially if we exclude self-citations), and makes no meaningful impact on the world. This is the outcome people should generally expect for their scholarship, for better or for worse. If someone experiences the modal result for their published work (it gets ignored), this should not be assumed to be a product of unjust bias. And even where there is  โ€œdissemination biasโ€ at play (systematic variance in whether papers are read, shared, cited or receive media coverage based on whether they advance or undermine a particular narrative), this is an importantly different problem from censorship.

Likewise, itโ€™s not censorship if scholars engage others in mocking, disrespectful or uncharitable ways and are generally greeted with hostility in turn. There are many โ€œcrybulliesโ€ in the culture war space who characterize reasonable pushback to their own aggressive behaviors as political persecution.

Nor is it censorship if scholars advocate for a particular position while violating academic rules and norms and these violations result in censure. Such punishments could approach censorship if standards are enforced inconsistently. It would likewise be censorious for people to try to dig up dirt on the author of a publication they disliked to have them punished for ostensibly unrelated offenses, or to have spurious investigations launched to make their lives miserable.

It is also necessary to distinguish between self-censorship that arises from real and highly costly threats versus self-censorship driven by cowardice or inaccurate information. Often there is plenty of room for people to dissent from prevailing views without significant adverse consequences, but scholars refuse to speak out regardless because they because they misperceive the magnitude or likelihood of sanction, or because they are unwilling to incur even mild risks to speak their minds (although we often compare ourselves to the likes of Galileo, in fact, higher ed may have unusually high concentrations of cowards, conformists and careerists). These arenโ€™t instances of censorship where other people are the problem. The problem in these cases is largely in the mind of the self-censor.

By carefully working through the best available data on censorship in science, sifting genuine cases of suppression from culture war chaff, some general patterns emerge.

One of the most striking patterns is how often censorship is driven by scientists themselves.

Typically, when people think or talk about censorship we imagine external authorities (like governments or corporations), or perhaps campus administrators or overzealous students. We often understand censors to be driven by ignorance, ideological authoritarianism, or a desire to suppress findings that are inconvenient for someoneโ€™s political project or bottom line.

In fact, censorship and self-censorship seem to be most typically driven by prosocial motives. Sometimes scholars self-censor or suppress findings because they worry that claims will be easily misunderstood or misused. Sometimes they self-censor and instruct their advisees to do the same out of a desire to avoid creating difficulties for their colleagues and students. Sometimes findings seem dangerous or unflattering to populations that are already stigmatized, vulnerable or otherwise disadvantaged, and scientists suppress findings out of a desire to avoid making their situation worse (although, in practice, censorship often ends up having the most dramatic and pernicious effects on these very populations).  

Critically, it isnโ€™t just censorship that works this way. Many other academic problems tend to be driven by prosocial motives as well.

As psychologist Stuart Ritchie demonstrates in Science Fictions (Metropolitan Books, 2020), academics who commit fraud often seem genuinely convinced that the narratives advanced by their papers are, in fact, true. Fraud is often motivated, in part, by a desire to amplify what scientists believe to be the truth when their experiments fail to provide the expected confirmatory data. In other cases, scholars are convinced that a new treatment or intervention can help people, but they feel like they need eye-popping results to draw attention or secure funding for it โ€“ leading them to either massage the data or overhype their findings.  

And as Lawrence Lessing shows in America, Compromised (University of Chicago Press, 2018), it is often scholars who are sincerely committed to honesty and rigor who end up being corrupted โ€“ and it is precisely their high sense of integrity that often blinds people to the ways they end up compromising their work.

This is precisely what makes many problems with the state of science difficult to address. They often arenโ€™t caused by bad scientists driven by evil motives but by researchers trying to do the right thing in ways that ultimately undermine the scientific enterprise.

To reduce censorship and self-censorship, itโ€™s not enough to create robust protections for academic freedom. We must also convince scientists to use those freedoms to follow the truth wherever it leads and to tell the truth even when doing so seems to conflict with other priorities.

This article was originally published by RealClearScience and made available via RealClearWire.

โ€˜Tremendously Damagingโ€™: Hereโ€™s The Most Aggressive Restrictions Bidenโ€™s EPA Pushed On Americans In 2023

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) pushed several aggressive climate regulations in 2023 that could seriously harm the American economy, energy policy experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

From The Daily Caller

NICK POPE

CONTRIBUTOR

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) pushed several aggressive climate regulations in 2023 that could seriously harm the American economy, energy policy experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

The agency proposed or finalized rules that would spur the electric vehicle (EV) transition, decrease power grid reliability by imposing costly restrictions on power plants, tighten air quality standards and more in 2023. Under the Biden administration, the EPA has made considerable efforts to further regulations that would nominally help to counter climate change, often at the expense of the American economy, energy policy experts told the DCNF.

โ€œThe EPA took a disturbing trend to a new level in 2023: a willingness to use its regulatory power to kill off industries, dictate or influence what businesses can operate and limit what goods and services are available to the public,โ€ Daren Bakst, the director of the Competitive Enterprise Instituteโ€™s Center for Energy and Environment, told the DCNF. โ€œCongress never envisioned the agencyโ€™s authorized regulatory power would be used as a tool for the agency to engage in central planning, reshape industries and limit consumer choice.โ€ย (RELATED: EPA Bureaucrats Can Rake In Six-Figure Salaries While Mostly Working From Home, Report Finds)

The โ€œClean Power Plan 2.0โ€ณ

The EPAโ€™s May proposal to slash greenhouse gas emissions from power plants would require fossil fuel-fired generation facilities to adopt expensive developing technologies, such as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and hydrogen blending, in order to come into compliance over the coming decades. If finalized in its current form, the regulationsโ€” which the EPA contends are legal under the auspices of the Clean Air Actโ€” would significantly raise the chances of blackouts in a massive swath of the Midwest while imposing costs to stakeholders totaling nearly $250 billion, according to analysis conducted by the Center of the American Experiment (CAE).

Power the Future, an energy advocacy organization, dubbed the proposal the โ€œClean Power Plan 2.0โ€ in a Novemberย reportย because of its strong resemblance to the Obama administrationโ€™s โ€œClean Power Planโ€ proposal, which the Supreme Court struck down in its landmark decision in West Virginia v. EPAin 2022.

The EPA is moving forward with the proposal, despite the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and a key official for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission warning that the premature retirement of fossil fuel-fired baseload generation and increased reliance on intermittent green energy, like wind and solar, threatens future grid reliability.

โ€œThe proposed rule does not require that plants go offline,โ€ an EPA spokesperson told the DCNF in August. โ€œThe proposed rule would require plants to install proven technology to abate greenhouse gas emissions. The proposal provides owners and operators of power plants with ample lead time and substantial compliance flexibilities, allowing power companies and grid operators to make sound long-term planning and investment decisions, and supporting the power sectorโ€™s ability to continue delivering reliable and affordable electricity.โ€

However, CAE and one of its leading grid experts, Isaac Orr, are not convinced.

The agency โ€œdoes not appear to have the expertise necessary to enact such a sweeping regulation on the American power sector,โ€ CAE wrote in its August comments in response to the agencyโ€™s proposal.

โ€œThis is the regulatory equivalent of studying the structural integrity of the top floor of a 100-story building without doing so for the preceding 99 floors,โ€ Orr told the DCNF.

Tailpipe Emissions Standards

In April, the agencyย unveiledย its proposal for new tailpipe emissions standards in an effort to curb emissions attributable to transportation. The proposed standards would be historically stringent if finalized and they would effectively mandate that 67% of all light-duty vehicles sold after model year 2032 are EVs,ย accordingย to the EPA.

Under the proposed rules, 46% of medium-duty vehicle sales and 25% of heavy-duty sales will be EVs, according to the agencyโ€™s projections.

The proposal could be โ€œtremendously damaging for the American people,โ€ Diana Furchtgott-Roth, the director of the Heritage Foundationโ€™s Center for Energy, Climate and Environment, told the DCNF. โ€œThe reason the agency is pushing these rules is because Congress would never pass these as laws โ€ฆ this rule would be very damaging for Americans and get rid of an iconic means of transportation.โ€

The administration has spent billions to facilitate its ambitious EV push, and other agencies, such as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, have promulgated their own similar rules as well. Despite these efforts, the American EV market is on tenuous footing: consumer demand is not growing as rapidly as anticipated, companies are losing large sums of money on their EV product lines, auto executives are starting to back away from short-term EV production targets and the nationโ€™s EV charging infrastructure remains inconsistent and unevenly distributed across the country.

Notably, the House passed a bill that would effectively nullify the proposal earlier in December by a bipartisan vote, but it is unlikely to make it through the Senate, and the White House has suggested that President Joe Biden will veto the bill if it lands on his desk, according to The Hill.

Fine Particulate Pollution Standards

In January, the EPA proposed to tighten the existing National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particulate pollution (PM 2.5) in order โ€œto better protect communities, including those most overburdened by pollution,โ€ the agency announced in a press release.

More than 70 industrial executives penned a letter to White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients warning him that it could lead to massive swaths of the nation falling out of compliance with the rule, which would in turn choke economic development and complicate key goals of Bidenโ€™s own green industrial agenda, according to its text.

The states that would be most directly impacted by a finalized PM 2.5 NAAQS update would be Texas, California, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Illinois, according to the letterโ€™s text.

โ€œPM 2.5 is the most demonstrable science fraud going on at the EPA,โ€ Steve Milloy, a senior legal fellow for the Energy and Environment Legal Institute, previously told the DCNF. โ€œThere is more than enough scientific research to demonstrate that what EPA is doing here is fraud, and it is really a testament to the corruption of the scientific community.โ€

If finalized, the proposal would kill jobs and put the EPA in a position to deny local economies the right to develop, because states that can not comply with the tightened standards would have to receive approval from the agency to develop new industrial factories and power facilities, Milloy told the DCNF.

The EPA projects that the policy would generate up to $43 billion in net health benefits in 2032, as well as prevent 4,200 premature deaths per year and restore 270,000 lost workdays per year by reducing the current standard of allowable fine particle pollution by up to 25%.

Waters of the United States

In January, the agency proposed a regulation that would define the โ€œWaters of the United Statesโ€ (WOTUS) under the EPAโ€™s regulatory purview as โ€œnavigable watersโ€ to include lands containing small streams and wetlands. A federal court blocked the January proposal in April, finding that the 24 states that sued the agency had โ€œpersuasively shown that the new 2023 Rule poses a threat to their sovereign rights and amounts to irreparable harm.โ€

Then, in May, the Supreme Court limited the EPAโ€™s authority under the Clean Water Act โ€” which it had cited as the enabling statute for the January proposal โ€” in its decision in Sackett v. EPA, a case brought by a couple whom the EPA tried to stop from constructing a house on their land in Idaho.

In August, the agency โ€œfinalized amendments to its January rule, which are just a half-hearted and incomplete set of corrections to try and fix the flawed rule,โ€ Bakst told the DCNF. โ€œThese amendments donโ€™t properly comply with the Sackett opinion and fail to provide needed clarity to implement the opinion. And they did so without seeking public comment.โ€

The EPA exhibited a โ€œcomplete disregard for private property owners and the rule of lawโ€ in its proceedings pursuant to WOTUS regulation in 2023, Bakst told the DCNF.

Neither the EPA nor the White House responded immediately to a request for comment.

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporterโ€™s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contactย licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

New Yearโ€™s Resolution โ€“ Methane Response

As part of New Yorkโ€™sย Climate Leadership and Community Protection Actย (Climate Act) methane is irrationally disparaged as part of the war on natural gas. ย 

From Watts Up With That?

Roger Caiazza

I am announcing my New Yearโ€™s resolution here in hopes of getting feedback and to spur others to provide their resolutions when we hear yet another climate talking point.

When I hear anyone say that methane is more potent than carbon dioxide because the radiative forcing produced is greater, I resolve to say that is only true in the laboratory on a molecular basis.  In the atmosphere where it counts methane is not nearly as potent.

Discussion

I have heard the methane scare story all over but my primary concern is New York.  As part of New Yorkโ€™s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act) methane is irrationally disparaged as part of the war on natural gas.  The rationale used always revolves around the potency of methane relative to CO2.  To respond I have developed a page that consolidates reason why methane should not be vilified.  I included the following arguments.

Clyde Spender explained that changes to radiation effects occur on a molecule-by-molecule basis in the atmosphere in an article here titled The Misguided Crusade to Reduce Anthropogenic Methane Emissions.  The Climate Act tracks emissions by weight.  In the atmosphere CO2 is more than two orders of magnitude more abundant than CH4 on a molecular basis. The Climate Act uses the global warming potential that estimates the mid-range, long-term warming potential of CH4 is 32 times that of CO2.  However, that equivalence is for equal weights of the two gases!  Using a molecular basis (parts per million-volume mole-fraction) to account for the lighter CH4 molecule reveals that the annual contribution to warming is a fraction of that claimed for CO2.  Methane emissions on a molecular basis are increasing at a rate of 0.58% of CO2 increases.   Therefore, changes in methane emissions have insignificant effects.

Andy Mayโ€™s excellent summarization of Wijngaarden and Happerโ€™s important paper โ€œDependence of Earthโ€™s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gasesโ€ takes a slightly different approach.  He explains that the greenhouse effect of methane is not only related to the effect on longwave radiation itself but also the concentration in the atmosphere.  Because the atmospheric concentration of methane is so small doubling concentrations change the โ€œoutgoing forcing by less than one percentโ€.  In other words, doubling emissions or cutting emissions in half of methane will have no measurable effect on global warming itself. 

Ralph B. Alexander describes another molecular consideration ignored in the Climate Act.  Each greenhouse gas affects outgoing radiation differently across the bell-shaped radiation spectrum   One of the reasons that CO2 is considered the most important greenhouse gas is that its effect coincides with the peak of the bell shape.  On the other hand, the effect of CH4 is down in the tail of the bell shape.  As a result, the potential effect of CH4 is on the order of only 20% of the effect of CO2.

The residence time of the two gases is different.  Methane only has a lifetime of about 10-12 years in the atmosphere.  The โ€œconsensusโ€ science claim is that 80% of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions are removed within 300 years.  (Note however that there are other estimates of much shorter residence times.) This means that CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere.  CH4 is converted to CO2 and is then counted in the monthly CO2 measurements as part of the CO2 flux.  Because methane does not accumulate the same way as CO2 it should be handled differently.  However, the Climate Act doubles down.  Climate Act authors claimed it was necessary to use 20-year global warming potential (GWP) values because methane is estimated to be 28 to 36 greater than carbon dioxide for a 100-year time horizon but 84-87 greater GWP over a 20-year period.

Conclusion

I would love additional arguments why methane is not to be feared, would appreciate any corrections to my arguments, and would like to hear ways to edit my resolution for more impact.

It would also be useful to me and probably others if WUWT readers would provide similar resolutions for publication.

Happy New Year


Roger Caiazza blogs on New York energy and environmental issues atย Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York.ย  More details on the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act are availableย hereย and an inventory of over 370 articles about the Climate Act is also available.ย  ย This represents his opinion and not the opinion of any of his previous employers or any other company with which he has been associated.

Claim: Immigrants from Southern border could see their โ€˜carbon footprintsโ€™ double or triple by becoming part of the U.S. economy

In Guatemala, the per capita annual footprint is slightly more than 1 ton of carbon dioxide emissions, according to the statisticians at Our World In Data. The average American accounts for nearly 15 tons.

From CLIMATE DEPOT

Byย Marc Morano

Wash Times: President Bidenโ€™s migrant surge is taking a toll on police, schools, and a wide range of social services โ€” and it turns out, itโ€™s also contributing to global warming.

A Central or South American who immigrates to the U.S. could see their greenhouse gas emissions double or triple, just by becoming part of the U.S. economy. That not only raises the overall global carbon footprint, but also makes it tougher for the U.S. to achieve its own emissions reduction targets, experts said. .. 

Take a Guatemalan, more than 700,000 of whom have been caught trying to reach the U.S. since the start of the Biden administration. In Guatemala, the per capita annual footprint is slightly more than 1 ton of carbon dioxide emissions, according to the statisticians at Our World In Data. The average American accounts for nearly 15 tons.

Itโ€™s true that the Guatemalan is likely to be on the lower end of the economy โ€” and therefore carbon emissions โ€” in the U.S. But data from the International Energy Agency says even at those lower rungs of the economy, an Americanโ€™s emissions can run to two or three tons a year. โ€œIf all that matters is global emissions of carbon, then migration, given present realities, does tend to transfer people from the less-polluting part of the world to the more polluting part of the world, though developing countries are certainly catching up as everyone understandably wants to consume more fossil fuels,โ€ said Steven A. Camarota, a researcher at the Center for Immigration Studies, who first explored the idea in a 2008 paper.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/dec/25/joe-bidens-migrant-surge-deepens-americas-greenhou/

Bidenโ€™s migrant surge deepens Americaโ€™s greenhouse gas problem

By Stephen Dinan โ€“ The Washington Times

President Bidenโ€™s migrant surge is taking a toll on police, schools, and a wide range of social services โ€” and it turns out, itโ€™s also contributing to global warming.

A Central or South American who immigrates to the U.S. could see their greenhouse gas emissions double or triple, just by becoming part of the U.S. economy. That not only raises the overall global carbon footprint, but also makes it tougher for the U.S. to achieve its own emissions reduction targets, experts said.

โ€œItโ€™s pretty simple,โ€ said Michael McKenna, an energy policy expert who served as a senior legislative aide to President Trump. โ€œWhen you get here, no matter what youโ€™re doing, youโ€™re using more electricity, youโ€™re using more energy.โ€


The idea turns the usual conversation on its head.

Most people, when they talk about climate and migration, look at what are known as climate refugees โ€” those who are pressured to leave their homes because rising temperatures and extreme weather events have flooded homes or upended the local economy.

But experts say the flow of people itself is a factor in total emissions and where they happen.


Take a Guatemalan, more than 700,000 of whom have been caught trying to reach the U.S. since the start of the Biden administration.

In Guatemala, the per capita annual footprint is slightly more than 1 ton of carbon dioxide emissions, according to the statisticians at Our World In Data. The average American accounts for nearly 15 tons.

Itโ€™s true that the Guatemalan is likely to be on the lower end of the economy โ€” and therefore carbon emissions โ€” in the U.S. But data from the International Energy Agency says even at those lower rungs of the economy, an Americanโ€™s emissions can run to two or three tons a year.

โ€œIf all that matters is global emissions of carbon, then migration, given present realities, does tend to transfer people from the less-polluting part of the world to the more polluting part of the world, though developing countries are certainly catching up as everyone understandably wants to consume more fossil fuels,โ€ said Steven A. Camarota, a researcher at the Center for Immigration Studies, who first explored the idea in a 2008 paper.

He said itโ€™s also an issue for the U.S., which has set goals of reducing its emissions by 50% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels. Thatโ€™s not a per-capita goal but rather a raw numerical goal, meaning that the more people here, the tougher it becomes to reach.

โ€œHow does one deal with those questions in the United States, by adding so many people, by making our population so much larger than it otherwise would be?โ€ Mr. Camarota said.

#

Wash Times: President Bidenโ€™s migrant surge is taking a toll on police, schools, and a wide range of social services โ€” and it turns out, itโ€™s also contributing to global warming.

A Central or South American who immigrates to the U.S. could see their greenhouse gas emissions double or triple, just by becoming part of the U.S. economy. That not only raises the overall global carbon footprint, but also makes it tougher for the U.S. to achieve its own emissions reduction targets, experts said. .. 

Take a Guatemalan, more than 700,000 of whom have been caught trying to reach the U.S. since the start of the Biden administration. In Guatemala, the per capita annual footprint is slightly more than 1 ton of carbon dioxide emissions, according to the statisticians at Our World In Data. The average American accounts for nearly 15 tons.

Itโ€™s true that the Guatemalan is likely to be on the lower end of the economy โ€” and therefore carbon emissions โ€” in the U.S. But data from the International Energy Agency says even at those lower rungs of the economy, an Americanโ€™s emissions can run to two or three tons a year. โ€œIf all that matters is global emissions of carbon, then migration, given present realities, does tend to transfer people from the less-polluting part of the world to the more polluting part of the world, though developing countries are certainly catching up as everyone understandably wants to consume more fossil fuels,โ€ said Steven A. Camarota, a researcher at the Center for Immigration Studies, who first explored the idea in a 2008 paper.

Polar bears and sea ice fail to implode in 2023 as predicted, with special thanks for your support

As this year draws to a close, it is worth noting that over the last 12 months โ€” and contrary to predictions andย headlines, including claims about โ€œthe warmest year everโ€ โ€” polar bears have not been reportedย dying, starving, or eating each otherย in large numbers, orย relentlessly attacking people.

From polarbearscience

As this year draws to a close, it is worth noting that over the last 12 months โ€” and contrary to predictions andย headlines, including claims about โ€œthe warmest year everโ€ โ€” polar bears have not been reportedย dying, starving, or eating each otherย in large numbers, orย relentlessly attacking people. On top of that, summer sea ice coverage in the Arctic hasย stalled for the last 17 years, not melted out in a death spiral of rotten ice.

Except for the lying and obfuscation that most of us have come to expect, Iโ€™ve mostly been left to reiterate that polar bears are not โ€œcanaries in the coal mineโ€ indicators of climate change and to point out that Arctic sea ice extent and polar bear survival are not inextricably tied. For example, in some specific areas of interest, like Western Hudson Bay, there has not been a consistent decline in sea ice over the last few decades and bears are not attacking people at increased rates because they are desperately hungry. In other areas, like the Svalbard area of the western Barents Sea, sea ice has declined dramatically in recent years yet polar bears have not been attacking people more than usual.

Contradictions and failed predictions abound.

All in all, a rather boring year for the anticipated implosion of polar bear health and survival, despite my constant tracking of publicly-available information. That said, I would like to take this opportunity to thank you all again for your continued support, and especially those who have donated hard-earned cash over the last few months: your support makes it possible for me to continue my work keeping polar bear science honest. Together, we have made a difference and I know itโ€™s worth the fight. Because if we let evidence-based science die without challenge, we lose our ability to make sense of the world.

All the best for 2024 to you all.

Arctic ecology 2023 update

From this monthโ€™sย NOAA Arctic Report Cardย for 2023ย on sea ice:

Also according toย NOAA researchers,ย primary productivityย in 2023 continued to be higher than 2003 across the Arctic, with increased values especially in the Barents Sea and Hudson Bay which ultimately benefits polar bears with more seals to eat:

โ€œRealisticโ€ global warming projections for the 21st century

The paper is open access and, therefore, it is accessible to all.

From Climate Etc.

by Nicola Scafetta

My new paper  demonstrates that realistic emissions scenarios and climate sensitivity values & scenarios of natural climate variability produce more realistic, non-alarming scenarios of 21st century climate.

I would like to thank Judith Curry for inviting me to write a short blog post on my just published paper:

Nicola Scafetta. Impacts and risks of โ€œrealisticโ€ global warming projections for the 21st century. Geoscience Frontiers 15(2), 101774, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101774

The paper is open access and, therefore, it is accessible to all.

I believe the work is significant because it addresses the central issue that is of general interest: how much warmingโ€‚can we expect in the 21st century?โ€‚These are serious challenges that scientists must solve to truly assist policymakers. Is todayโ€™s climate alarmism founded on real science, or is it simply an extrapolated view based on flawed arguments?

Answering such a question defines the steps that must be taken to address any expected threats associated with possible future climatic changes. However, the uncertainties are so great that no consensus can be reached. Some argue that we are on the verge of a massive climatic disaster if net-zero emission policies are not imposed quickly, while others argue that nothing will happen. Technically, anyone can present arguments in support of his or her belief because of the large uncertainties surrounding these climate change issues.

Iโ€™ve opted to address the issue by highlighting recent research efforts to reduce uncertainties in order to obtain more โ€œrealisticโ€ climate estimates for the twenty-first century. This might then be used to better analyze the actual impacts and hazards of climate change, with the hope that people will be able to agree on the best remedies.

I have identified four sources of uncertainties:

  1. Which shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario for the twenty-first century is most plausible? According to recent scientific literature, it is the SSP2-4.5 scenario, which is a moderate and pragmatic scenario in which CO2 emission rates maintain around present levels until 2050, then reduce but do not reach net-zero by 2100. Unfortunately, most of the climate alarmism is based on unrealistic scenarios like SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0, which result in overestimation of future projected warming and greater alarm.
  2. How sensitive is the climate to CO2 increases? According to recent scientific research, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) should be between 1 and 3 ยฐC. Unfortunately, the IPCC AR6 relied heavily on Global Climate models with ECS ranging between 2.5 and 4 ยฐC (likely range), which overestimates future projected warming.
  3. Can we rely on the warming presented by surface temperature records to calibrate and/or validate which models to use for climate projections? Addressing this point is critical because recent literature has suggested that surface temperature records may be significantly influenced by non-climatic warm biases (e.g. contamination from urban heat islands, among others), and because satellite-based lower troposphere temperature records (e.g. UAH-MSU v6 and NOAA-STAR v5) show a warming rate that is 30% lower than recent surface temperature records (as shown also by the IPCC AR6). The concern is that the models expect that the troposphere will warm faster than the surface, not less. As a result, the warming rate of surface temperature records should be questioned. In this case, all CMIP6 GCMs are running โ€œtoo hot,โ€ indicating a very low actual value of ECS (1-2 ยฐC), implying that future climate change would be more moderate than projected by the IPCC in all cases.
  4. The fourth question is whether the GCMs accurately reflect natural climate change variability. The issue is significant since a vast body of research indicates that the CMIP6 GCMs are incapable of reproducing natural climate variability because they ignore multiple well-known climatic cycles at all time scales. There is a quasi-millennial climate oscillation with a likely solar origin that characterizes the entire Holocene and is responsible for the well-documented Roman and Medieval Warm Periods, which models are unable to reproduce (as timidly acknowledged by the IPCC AR6 figure 3.2). Other natural oscillations were also detected, such as the quasi-60-year oscillation seen in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation signal, as well as many other oscillations classified as solar/astronomically driven in previous studies. While GCMs suggest that over 100% of the observed warming is manmade, these oscillations could have contributed significantly to the warming recorded in the twentieth century. Introducing cyclical natural variability predicts low ECS values (1-2 ยฐC) and that the GCMs grossly underestimate the solar impact on climate.

Using the information discussed above, โ€œrealisticโ€ climate change projections must be created using the SSP2-4.5 and: (1) only models with a low ECS (less thanย 3ยฐC); (2) rescaling the models to the lower warming rate of the lower troposphere temperature records; and (3) adopting semi-empirical models of natural climate variability. As a result, in all three situations, the projected warming for the twenty-first century is congruent with the IPCCโ€™s projected warming using the net-zero scenario SSP1-2.6. This is clearly demonstrated in the graphical abstract of my paper, which is displayed below:

Because future climate change is expected to be modest enough that any potential related hazards can be addressed efficiently through effective and low-cost adaptation strategies, the 2.0 ยฐC Paris-agreement warming target for the twenty-first century can likely be met even under the feasible and moderate SSP2-4.5 emission scenario without the need for implementing rapid, extremely expensive, and technologically likely impossible net-zero decarbonization policies.

Happy New Year 2024 to all!