12/17/2023 – Climate- Science.press

West-Wide Energy Corridor (WWEC): Revisions

In remarks made at the Bipartisan Policy Center in May, 2023, John Podesta, a senior advisor in the Biden/Harris administration, spoke about revising energy policy.

From Watts Up With That?

Kevin Kilty

In remarks made at the Bipartisan Policy Center in May, 2023, John Podesta, a senior advisor in the Biden/Harris administration, spoke about revising energy policy. Within the very partisan boiler plate of this speech was this message:

“We’re proud of what our administration has accomplished so far to change our trajectory on clean energy and climate. But now, we need to up the pace and finish the job by lowering the remaining hurdles to achieve 100% clean power by 2035.

One big hurdle—and a big opportunity—is permitting. Right now, the permitting process for clean energy infrastructure, including transmission, is plagued by delays and bottlenecks.

These delays are pervasive at every level of government—federal, state, and local. We got so good at stopping projects that we forgot how to build things in America.”

The coded message was that the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) has become an inconvenience. In November BLM published a notice in the Federal Register regarding plans to revise portions of the massive Western transmission corridor cutting across 11 western states. These corridors were established in Section 368 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. There are 30 days in a public comment period, closing January 2, 2024, to voice general concerns.

The idea of Section 368 energy corridors began as a good idea. Consolidate pipelines and electrical transmission lines, plus associated roads, into narrow corridors to minimize sprawl and environmental conflicts. However, no good idea ever fails to generate opposition, and after the official record of decision regarding these corridors, a number of environmental organizations, tribal units, and others filed a complaint in July 2009 against the agencies involved. Among other reasons the complainants said the corridors gave too much deference to fossil fuel interests and existing thermal power plants and showed not enough regard for development of renewable energy.

In a settlement reached in 2012, the Federal government agreed to list corridors of concern, provide for periodic review of corridors and produce a corridor study. Now, however, with NEPA proving itself to be as much of an impediment to renewable energy projects as it was to other sorts of endeavors, the Biden Administration seeks to revise what was settled.

There are a few big concerns immediately that I can see.

First, what transpired after the settlement in 2012 is that developers often just ignored the designated corridors and put transmission lines where they pleased. One can’t help but wonder if part of this effort on the part of the Biden/Harris Administration isn’t to provide a blessing after the fact of what these developers have gone ahead and done? This would establish the bad precedent that public policy is the pet dog being led by renewable energy interests.

Second, my cynical side senses an effort to build an effective shuffle to weaken NEPA. I have encountered this before in trying to speak sense to power over renewable energy projects. The shuffle works like this. Refer to the long line of agency reviews required for a project as in Figure 2.

Suppose there is a controversial part of an application being identified in a public hearing with Agency A. Agency A, luckily, has an out because they can point to Agency C which is also tasked with analysis of this particular issue. Agency C is being advised by Agency B. Agency B can point back to Agency A who raised no objections to the application originally. This works better still with more agencies involved. Place a generalized Enviromental Impact Statement (EIS) or a cursory Environmantal Assessment (EA) in place of a couple of agencies, and you have a variation on the shuffle.

Finally, in order to reduce costs, many renewable energy projects seek to locate near existing electrical transmission lines. Thus, revised corridors might be specifically placed to aid this tendency. However, the fact that a corridor has been reviewed, in a cursory manner, to avoid generalized environmental concerns, does not guarantee that its general environment is also suitable for renewable energy projects.

An example of this is the proposed Rail Tie wind plant in southern Wyoming. It is sited near existing WAPA transmission lines and it’s possible the project would never be economically reasonable if not for the “subsidy” that these lines provide. Rail Tie is located in a picturesque region of the Laramie Range, and likely presents wildlife conflicts and also viewshed and sound conflicts with the moderate density of privately owned ranchettes in the area. Even an attorney known for his work promoting wind plants in Wyoming said that Rail Tie is very poorly sited.

Will this effort to revise these Section 368 corridors become a cat among the canaries? Interested persons can visit this informative URL (https://corridoreis.anl.gov/) for further information and make a comment before the new year.

European heat pump sales are collapsing

Quarterly sales figures of heat pumps in Europe are in a slump amid a 14% drop compared to last year’s quarter, which the industry says was caused by political uncertainty and dropping gas prices.

By Nikolaus J. Kurmayer

Quarterly sales figures of heat pumps in Europe are in a slump amid a 14% drop compared to last year’s quarter, which the industry says was caused by political uncertainty and dropping gas prices.

Energy used in heating and cooling the EU’s more than 100 million buildings represents almost 50% of the bloc’s final energy consumption. Heat pumps are expected to contribute the lion’s share of reducing demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions. Euractiv.com has the story.

There is just one problem: sales of the magical technology that turns one unit of power into three of heat by concentrating ambient energy are down 14% compared to the same quarter in 2022 across the EU’s biggest markets.

In the third quarter of 2022, some 565,000 heat pumps were sold in Europe. One year down the line, that figure has dropped to some 485,000 or by 14%. The biggest drops were recorded in Finland and Denmark, traditionally strong markets.

Strong sales figures in Germany at 120,000 and the Netherlands at 38,000 propped up the quarterly result for the market.

EHPA, the association of Europe’s heat pump producers, attributes the slump in sales to mixed messaging from politicians – like during Germany’s multi-month heat pump row – and the massive drop in natural gas prices.

The Dutch price tracker TTF sees prices three times lower than the year before, having almost reached pre-crisis levels.

The turn away from the bloc’s future heating mainstay spells trouble for the EU’s ability to achieve its climate targets for 2030 and beyond.

One EU target may be at risk more than any other: Europe plans to install 30 million heat pumps by 2030 as part of REPowerEU – EHPA says 60 million are necessary – in order to get rid of the bloc’s dependence on Russian gas.

“Policy must aim at reducing the cost of electricity for residential, commercial and industrial applications. It should not be more than twice the price of fossil gas,” urged Thomas Nowak, EHPA’s secretary-general.

Read the full story here.

The Absurdity of Measuring Breath for Climate Change

From Watts Up With That?

In a recent study published in PLOS ONE, titled “Measurements of methane and nitrous oxide in human breath and the development of UK scale emissions,” researchers have embarked on a quest that epitomizes the absurdity of current climate change discourse. This study, focusing on the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) from human breath, is not only a glaring example of scientific overreach but also a worrying indicator of the lengths to which climate alarmism is willing to go.

The study’s objective to investigate emissions from human breath in the UK population is fundamentally flawed. It operates under the assumption that these emissions are significant enough to warrant detailed analysis and inclusion in national greenhouse gas inventories. This premise is laughable at best, considering the minuscule percentage these emissions contribute to the overall greenhouse gas emissions.

The methodology employed in the study is questionable. Collecting 328 breath samples from 104 volunteers hardly constitutes a representative sample of the UK population. Furthermore, the study’s reliance on such a small sample size to draw conclusions about national-scale emissions is a classic case of over-extrapolation.

The study’s findings that 31% of participants were methane producers and that all participants emitted nitrous oxide are presented without adequate context. These results are portrayed as significant, yet they fail to consider the broader environmental impact. The fact that these emissions are stated contribute a mere 0.05% and 0.1% to the UK’s total emissions of CH4 and N2O, respectively, well below any margin of error in “national inventories” renders these findings insignificant.

The idiocy of this study and the entire genre of human behavior studies, whether it be meat eating, or owning pets, diverts attention from more pressing environmental issues and misallocates resources that could be better used elsewhere. This approach is indicative of a climate change narrative that is increasingly detached from reality. This study dangerously overstates the impact of human biological processes on climate change. By attributing environmental consequences to the act of breathing, it sets a precedent for viewing every aspect of human existence through the lens of environmental impact. This perspective is not only scientifically unsound but also potentially leads to dehumanizing policies.

The study, and the subsequent media coverage, lack a rational discourse on climate change. There is a conspicuous absence of critical analysis or questioning of the study’s relevance and implications. This omission is a testament to the current state of climate change discussions, where sensationalism often trumps scientific rigor.

The obsession with carbon, its compounds, and greenhouse gases as seen in this study’s focus on CH4 and N2O, is a misplaced concern. It reflects a narrow view of the complex and dynamic nature of Earth’s climate system. This fixation on carbon emissions is a distraction from more holistic environmental strategies.

The implications of this study for policy making are extremely concerning. It represents a step towards justifying intrusive and overreaching policies based on negligible environmental impacts. Such an approach is not only impractical but also poses a threat to personal freedoms which continue to be under attack daily and the dignity of human life.

In conclusion, this study is emblematic of the absurd lengths to which climate alarmism has gone. It represents a worrying trend in the climate debate, where even the most basic human functions are scrutinized for their environmental impact.

There is a dire need for a return to scientific sanity and rational discourse in addressing environmental issues. The path to a prosperous future does not lie in fear-mongering or exaggeration but in reasoned and rational scientific inquiry. I know we can’t expect that from the current crop of ideologically captured academics, but we must not stop working toward weeding out the rot in these institutions, even though it will likely take decades.

H/T petit-barde

New Olympic Sport: Wind Turbine Blade Sets Giant Javelin Throw Record

The trade euphemism for turbine blades flying in all directions is “component liberation”, an abuse of the English language designed to placate neighbours and passing motorists, living and traveling in the throw zone.

From STOP THESE THINGS

With thousands more of these things being speared into closely settled rural communities, the risk of death and serious injury, only increases.

The wind industry (which really only got off the ground in the late 1990s and still generates a trifling amount of electricity) has clocked up around 231 fatalities, – see the helpful collection of wind farm death and injury stats compiled by Scotland Against Spin all available here: https://scotlandagainstspin.org/turbine-accident-statistics/

Among the fatalities and injuries caused are those that result from vehicles being impaled by wind turbine blades or people being struck by flying chunks thereof: see our posts here and here and here and here and here.

With that kind of muscular athleticism, it looks as if the wind industry is wasting an opportunity. With 10 to 25 tonne blades being thrown over increasingly impressive distances, it should apply for a new spot in the Olympics – turning component liberation into a thrilling kind of giant javelin throw event – as with this keen contender – which let loose in Germany a few weeks ago.

Wind turbine blade tears off and drills into field
RRB
Antenne Brandenburg
23 November 2023

A wind turbine rotor blade has been stuck in a Prignitz field for a good three weeks. At first it was unclear what exactly happened. After residents reported a loud bang, the operator has now named the possible cause.

A blade of a wind turbine near Giesensdorf near Pritzwalk (Prignitz) tore off and then drilled into the ground. The operator Eno-Energy announced this to RRB on Thursday. The incident occurred about three weeks ago.

“The probable cause is a broken ball bearing,” said sales manager Patrick Rudolf. This rarely happens, but it can occur due to material defects. The rotor blade will be removed “promptly” in the next few weeks, it said. Then it will be examined.

Two associated wind turbines temporarily shut down
Residents reported hearing a loud bang around 1 a.m. on the night of October 30th. The next day the broken rotor blade was stuck in the ground.

According to Patrick Rudolph, two other wind turbines that belong to the defective one and were installed during the same period have now been shut down. They should be examined and then possibly put back online. The damaged wind turbine should also be repaired and then put back into operation.

A modern wind turbine usually has three rotor blades. Each wind turbine blade usually weighs between 15 and 25 tons, depending on its size.

Seven accidents in just over two years
It was only in October that a wind turbine caught fire in Doberlug-Kirchhain and burned out completely. According to the Ministry of the Environment in Brandenburg, together with the current case, there have been a total of seven accidents involving wind turbines in just over two years. Two of these cases involved broken rotor blades.
RBB

Merry Christmas from the World Meteorological Organization.

Much of what COP28 is about is absurd.
At the core of it, they revealed to the world a plan that is about as anti-common sense, anti-progress, anti-human, and since I am sure the creator wants humans to have some common sense and progress.

By Joe Bastardi

Cool down and Cooling off concept as a diver diving into frozen ice water as a symbol for managing hot weather summer heat and refreshing break from a heatwave.

You have been reading about COP28 here on CFACT.

Much of what COP28 is about is absurd.

At the core of it, they revealed to the world a plan that is about as anti-common sense, anti-progress, anti-human, and since I am sure the creator wants humans to have some common sense and progress.

For me, the WMO has delivered the smoking gun of the points I am trying to make. I am grateful to them and of course CFACT for letting me continue to show the evidence of all this.

without further adieu here is how unwittingly ignorant they are

They put this out

You will notice that until the 1990s, there was a lot more blue than there is the red we see now

This is confirmed of course by what I have shown you how little change in temps there was from the 1950s through 80s despite the steady rise of CO2

1950s SST

1980s

The ocean stays cool, air stays cool. Whatever warming in the air there was and it was minor, perhaps we can say was CO2

How much did it warm?

Not a whole lot I can’t even tell. 1981-1990

Their chart confirms this

So let’s again show that wonderful gift from the WMO again

Now lets show what I have shown a dozen times here, the increase in SST in response to increased geothermal forcing

and again to remind you what the odds are that this is not the cause

In what world can someone simply ignore what is direct linkage? A lack of warming until this occurs, and then the warming of the ocean, increase in WV which would make sense given its properties vs CO2, and the air warms

I will tell you what world.

A world where someone who was on cocaine much of the time can somehow be paid close to 30 million dollars from foreign entities using his father’s influence, hide and distribute it through numerous shell companies that have no visible products, and yet then have his father claim it didn’t happen and he knows nothing about it. Then turns around and says he is the victim.

A world where Al Gore can make one busted prediction after another and still be listened to. And win a Nobel Prize

A world where Hillary Clinton can make completely unfounded claims about heat deaths and no one calls her on it.

A world where a climate czar, John Kerry, who has also made forecasts on climate that have busted, can say he threw away medals cause he was so disgusted with his country, then show up with them on, visible evidence of his lying and hypocrisy.

A world where people can lie, or to be generous, not allow any challenge to what they are saying, and get away with it.

The common denominator is what I wrote about, Deceit, distortion, and delusion in all they do

And above all, they are so confident they can get away with it that they do it constantly So confident they can deliver to me a perfect graphic I can use, blissfully unaware that a counter to all of it exists, or can be used..

So the WMO has delivered to me the best graphic for linkage possible. And they are counting on people to ignore the obvious link.

Same as what all these people ( and I have just named a few) have gotten away with in so-called “government service” all their lives.

For emphasis. You can’t make it up. I have to put it on again so you can see

Oceans with their input

World Meteorological Organization’s unwitting gift to prove my point

Merry Christmas

The post Merry Christmas from the World Meteorological Organization. appeared first on CFACT.

Claim: Global Warming is Reducing Maximum Temperatures in the Himalayas

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Enhanced mixing of air layers at high altitudes is apparently reducing maximum air temperatures in some parts of the Himalayas.

Scientists uncover surprising phenomenon in the Himalayas slowing the effects of climate change

By CNN 6:41pm Dec 13, 2023

Glaciers in the Himalayas are melting rapidly, but a new report showed an astonishing phenomenon in the world’s tallest mountain range could be helping to slow the effects of the global climate crisis.

When warming temperatures hit certain high-altitude ice masses, it sets off a surprising reaction that blows robust cold winds down the slopes, according to the study published December 4 in the journal Nature Geoscience.

…

At the base of Mount Everest, however, measurements of overall temperature averages appeared curiously stable instead of increasing.

A close analysis of the data revealed what was really happening.

“While the minimum temperatures have been steadily on the rise, the surface temperature maxima in summer were consistently dropping,” said Franco Salerno, coauthor of the report and researcher for the National Research Council of Italy, or CNR.

However, even the presence of these cooling winds is not enough to fully counteract increasing temperatures and glacier melt due to climate change.

…

“Katabatic winds are a common feature of Himalayan glaciers and their valleys, and have likely always occurred,” Pellicciotti said.

“What we observe however is a significant increase in intensity and duration of katabatic winds, and this is due to the fact that the surrounding air temperatures have increased in a warming world.”

…Read more: https://www.9news.com.au/world/climate-change-news-himalayas-might-be-slowing-the-effects-of-climate-change/23097b04-cc8c-4f9e-be8e-9161417c4301

The abstract of the study;

Local cooling and drying induced by Himalayan glaciers under global warming

Franco Salerno, Nicolas Guyennon, Kun Yang, Thomas E. Shaw, Changgui Lin, Nicola Colombo, Emanuele Romano, Stephan Gruber, Tobias Bolch, Andrea Alessandri, Paolo Cristofanelli, Davide Putero, Guglielmina Diolaiuti, Gianni Tartari, Gianpietro Verza, Sudeep Thakuri, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Evan S. Miles & Francesca Pellicciotti

Nature Geoscience volume 16, pages 1120–1127 (2023)Cite this article

Abstract

Understanding the response of Himalayan glaciers to global warming is vital because of their role as a water source for the Asian subcontinent. However, great uncertainties still exist on the climate drivers of past and present glacier changes across scales. Here, we analyse continuous hourly climate station data from a glacierized elevation (Pyramid station, Mount Everest) since 1994 together with other ground observations and climate reanalysis. We show that a decrease in maximum air temperature and precipitation occurred during the last three decades at Pyramid in response to global warming. Reanalysis data suggest a broader occurrence of this effect in the glacierized areas of the Himalaya. We hypothesize that the counterintuitive cooling is caused by enhanced sensible heat exchange and the associated increase in glacier katabatic wind, which draws cool air downward from higher elevations. The stronger katabatic winds have also lowered the elevation of local wind convergence, thereby diminishing precipitation in glacial areas and negatively affecting glacier mass balance. This local cooling may have partially preserved glaciers from melting and could help protect the periglacial environment.

Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01331-y

The maximum temperature trend may be cooling at -0.26C per decade at some stations, according to the study.

… Crucially, we find that the overall decreasing T_max trend at Pyramid_off, particularly during the warm season, is correctly reproduced by ERA5-Land reanalysis (−0.026 ± 0.014 °C yr⁻¹, P < 0.05, Fig. 1e,f), which reproduces the non-stationary patterns at the annual and monthly scale (Fig. 1c). …Read more: Same link as above

The situation at higher altitudes seems to depend on whether the location is covered with ice, ice covered regions are cooler.

Note minimum temperatures, and some lower slopes appear to be warming. The study also mentioned more precipitation near the foot of glaciers.

The situation is also complex in terms of what is happening at higher altitudes, the study speculates greater layer mixing is causing stronger katabatic winds. The study doesn’t seem to suggest increased precipitation at higher altitudes, instead it reports an overall drying, which could negatively impact glacier mass. The study appears to suggest the drying is caused by increased downhill katabatic winds driving away the moist lowland air. The study mentions the vegetation line on the mountains is stable – not exactly what you would expect in a rapidly warming world – though the study mentions more observations are needed to confirm trends and hypothesis. There were significant gaps in the data which were filled using statistical techniques.

My interpretation, this study likely casts doubt on the wild predictions we’ve heard over the years about the disappearance of this or that snow field or glacier. The situation is obviously a lot more complex than a simple projection based on average global or regional temperature.

When the wind stops 7 Is anybody doing the maths?

This is an important video because it totally exposes the absurdity of storing wind energy to even out it’s supply. As I always, I will answer any questions on the subjects raised within the video.

Climate Realism by Paul Burgess

This is an important video because it totally exposes the absurdity of storing wind energy to even out it’s supply. As I always, I will answer any questions on the subjects raised within the video.

COP28 Stabilizes Mid-Dec. Arctic Ice

As COP28 began, Arctic ice extrent grew rapidly and by its end the Arctic was completely normal. On lower left, Chukchi sea filled in and below Bering sea started serious freezing. Lower right Hudson Bay more than doubled up to 800k km2, 2/3 of its maximum extent. Center right Baffin Bay grew to 45% of max.

From Science Matters

By Ron Clutz

A Lufthansa aircraft at the snow-covered Munich airport on Saturday. Photograph: Karl-Josef Hildenbrand/AP

Coincidently, COP28 also triggered heavy snow bringing chaos to southern Germany causing Munich to suspend flights to anywhere, including Dubai.

The graph below shows the gains in ice extent mid-November to Mid December for 2023, the 17 year average and some other recent years, as well as SII (Sea Ice Index)

MASIE showed 2023 and 2022 tracking the 17 year average and ending very close together. 2007 fluctuated a lot, well below average in December before rising at the end. SII tracked ~400k km2 lower most of this period, before rising to match MASIE in the last few days.

The table below shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic Ocean basins.

Region	2023349	Day 349	2023-Ave.	2007349	2023-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	12104311	12162108	-57797	12000124	104187
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070966	1070103	863	1069711	1255
(2) Chukchi_Sea	948805	934827	13978	796459	152347
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1086539	598	1077192	9945
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897835	9	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	826874	847433	-20559	842174	-15300
(6) Barents_Sea	370088	335870	34218	285179	84909
(7) Greenland_Sea	688238	546548	141690	571916	116322
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	819365	824803	-5438	852443	-33079
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853420	1440	852556	2304
(10) Hudson_Bay	800760	1101080	-300320	1248305	-447546
(11) Central_Arctic	3212059	3204043	8016	3192331	19728
(12) Bering_Sea	226652	236725	-10073	93340	133312
(13) Baltic_Sea	55323	11920	43403	10353	44970
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	231640	200090	31550	206342	25297

Note that Arctic ice now exceeds 12M km2, or 80% of last March maximum. As shown in the table above, the main deficit to average is in Hudson Bay, likely to be overcome with the current rapid growth. Offsetting are surpluses elsewhere, mostly in Greenland sea, along with Barents and Baltic seas.

Billions To Be Wasted On Inefficient Hydrogen Factories

So we are going to spend billions building these hydrogen factories, and in the process will need twice as much gas as we would have needed if we burnt the stuff in the first place!

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian Magness

Its that Pushmi-Pullyu again!!

First we’re having hydrogen:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/12/09/unpopular-hydrogen-trials-expanded-more-homes-backlash/

Then five days later we’re not!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/12/14/claire-coutinho-energy-scraps-hydrogen-heating-trial-redcar/

But taxpayers have still got to pay for hydrogen factories:

Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho is to approve plans for hydrogen factories around UK coasts as part of the drive to achieve net zero.

Ms Coutinho is to publish a “Hydrogen Roadmap” within days, setting out how Britain will produce and use the gas in industrial quantities.

Hydrogen offers a clean alternative to natural gas and could potentially replace diesel as a key fuel for lorries, trains, and ships under net zero. It could also replace gas in heavy industry.

The roadmap is understood to include plans for large-scale hydrogen production facilities, seeding an entirely new UK energy industry and thousands of new jobs.

Teesside, Humberside and Merseyside are the most likely initial sites for mass hydrogen production because they already have much of the necessary infrastructure, say Whitehall insiders.

In the longer term, others would follow at sites potentially including Bacton in Norfolk, Milford Haven in south Wales and St Fergus in north east Scotland.

Those sites would be linked to each other and to the gas network by a “hydrogen grid” – a network of pipes dedicated to moving hydrogen around the UK as already happens with natural gas.

The scheme will cost billions of pounds, much of which will initially come from government subsidies and grants aimed at kickstarting the industry. Costs will ultimately fall on taxpayers and consumers.

Ms Coutinho is also expected to set out controversial longer-term plans for replacing natural gas with pure hydrogen for home heating. This would mean replacing or upgrading boilers, cookers and gas fires in all affected homes.

However, this will not go ahead until the idea has been trialled, first at village scale and then in whole towns to assess public acceptance and safety.

The move to hydrogen will be expensive. Hydrogen is produced either from natural gas, with the waste CO2 buried in rocks deep beneath the seabed, or by using electricity to break down water molecules. Both methods need a lot of energy, which makes them costly.

The Government’s own Hydrogen Strategy warns: “Although costs are likely to reduce significantly and rapidly as innovation and deployment accelerate, hydrogen is currently much more costly to produce and use than existing fossil fuels.”

A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesman said the UK wanted to become a global leader in producing and using low carbon hydrogen. This would include trialling the gas for domestic heating but only in communities that supported the idea.

The spokesman said: “By 2030, we aim to deliver 10 gigawatts of low carbon hydrogen production capacity, including at least half from green hydrogen sources, supporting more than 12,000 jobs and up to £11bn of private investment across the UK.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/12/13/claire-coutinho-hydrogen-factories-britain-coast-net-zero/

Given that half of this 10 GW will be “green”, the other half will have to come from steam reforming gas, which is about 65% fuel efficient. In other words, you need about 50% more gas than if you burnt the gas in the first place instead.

Worse still, any Carbon Capture process will inevitably waste yet more gas, assuming you can even make it work. You will probably double your gas consumption going down the Steam Reforming/CCS route. It’s just as well COP28 has allowed the Arabs to carry on producing as much natural gas as they can sell!

But even the “green” hydrogen won’t be green at all, as it can only come from dispatchable sources , i.e.natural gas. This is because all of the wind/solar power will already be maxed out on the grid, even come 2030. There will be no surplus wind power to make hydrogen out of.

CCGTs are reckoned to run at about 60% efficiency, whilst electrolysers run at about 75%. In other words, after allowing for line losses, the through efficiency rate is about 40%. You therefore need 250 GWh of gas to produce 100 GWh of hydrogen.

So we are going to spend billions building these hydrogen factories, and in the process will need twice as much gas as we would have needed if we burnt the stuff in the first place!

Crackers!

Catastrophic and Frightening Solar Storms: Miyake Events

Miyake events are believed to be several orders of magnitude greater than the Carrington Event. It is not clear what causes the event.

From Watts Up With That?

Miyake events are believed to be several orders of magnitude greater than the Carrington Event. It is not clear what causes the event.

An X (formerly Twitter) thread by Erika @ExploreCosmos_

About 1300 years ago, an unexplained cosmic storm hit our planet. It left its imprints in the tree rings across the globe and the ice cores of Antarctica. Then, after 200 years, the event repeated, but this time it was 60% as strong. 1/#Thread #SpaceWeather pic.twitter.com/drdvXl6hoI
— Erika  (@ExploreCosmos_) December 14, 2023

About 1300 years ago, an unexplained cosmic storm hit our planet. It left its imprints in the tree rings across the globe and the ice cores of Antarctica. Then, after 200 years, the event repeated, but this time it was 60% as strong. 1/ #Thread #SpaceWeather

https://videopress.com/v/iect8ExI?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true

When scientists analyzed them in detail, they found that six such cosmic storms have struck our planet over the past few thousand years. Today, these are known as the Miyake events. 2/

Miyake events are not linked to regular solar storms that hit our planet. They are much more powerful, and their origin remains a mystery. Studies show that such an event happens, on average about once every thousand years. 3/

If a Miyake event occurs today, it would be catastrophic. It would have a devastating impact on modern technology, including satellites, Internet cables, and even long distance power lines and transformers. 4/

But the most critical question is how do we know such an event happened in the past? What imprints had the Miyake events left on our planet?. Finally, and most importantly, what is the origin of the mysterious cosmic storm that seems to hit the Earth periodically? 5/

The answer to the mystery lies in tree rings. That may sound weird at first, but let’s look at what happens during cosmic radiation bombardment. When a large flux of high energy radiation slams into the Earth’s

atmosphere, it changes its chemical composition. 6/

https://videopress.com/v/dC7gEcU9?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true

Specifically, when charged cosmic particles interact with abundant nitrogen atoms in the atmosphere, they can convert them into an isotope of carbon. Radiocarbon 14 filters through the air, oceans, plants, and animals. 7/

This way it can produce an annual record of radiation in tree rings. Compared to naturally occurring carbon isotopes on Earth, radiocarbon is scarce. It forms only in the upper atmosphere when cosmic rays collide with nitrogen atoms, triggering a nuclear reaction. 8/

Trees are known to add a new growth ring annually. This means if we can connect the spikes in the quantity of radiocarbon with the growth rings in trees, it can pave the way to obtain a reliable record of radiation storms that might have impacted Earth thousands of years ago. 9/

In 2012, Japanese physicist F Miyake found something strange. She discovered a sudden single year jump in radiocarbon concentration around 774 CE in Japanese cedar rings. Then in 2013, another spike was noted in rings from 993 CE. 10/

Over the years, a sharp increase in radiocarbon levels has been found, accounting for six well studied and well accepted radiocarbon spikes. These events of a surge in carbon 14 production are known as the Miyake events. 11/

Many cosmic events can lead to these spikes. Since the Sun is the most dynamic celestial body in our neighborhood, solar flares may seem to be an obvious reason. Solar flares are the most explosive events occurring in the SS. They can be seen as bright spots on the sun. 12/

The flares represent an intense burst of radiation from the release of magnetic energy associated with sunspots. When the team used computer models to analyze tree ring data on the 6 known Miyake events, the results challenge the idea that solar flares are linked to these spikes.

The team modeled the global carbon cycle to reconstruct the process over 10,000 years. In their paper, they produced detailed curves that could shed light on the relationship between the long … 14/

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2022.0497

… suspected astrophysical influence of the solar activity cycle on modulating radiocarbon production in Earth’s atm. For example, in this graph, the area under each curve shows the density of radiocarbon for all the six known Miyake events, … 15/

.. and this curve shows the duration of each event.
It provided them with sufficient data to check if the carbon spike timing is linked with solar flares among the six known events. 16/

More data is available for the events of 774 and 993 CE. They seem globally coherent with evidence. In many trees in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The event of the year 774 is even more prominent, with the most available ring data. 17/

It appears to be more than 10 times as powerful as the Carrington Event of 1859. The Carrington Event was a powerful geomagnetic storm that caused Telegraph lines to burst into flames. It even led to planet wide auroras. 18/

The Carrington Event remains the most intense geomagnetic storm to date in recorded history. It occurred just a few months before the maxima of solar cycle 10. So as the sun approaches the peak activity of its current solar cycle in July of 2025, geomagnetic storms can … 19/

… become more frequent.
After analyzing the data for the event of 774, the team noted some inconsistencies. Although a fraction of trees in some parts of the world showed a sharp spike in radiocarbon for 1 year, the others displayed a delayed spike across two to three years.

So the team concluded that instead of a single instantaneous explosion or flare, there might have been several small outbursts that caused a single Miyake event. The cause could be a supernova explosion. 21/

Astronomers have long speculated that a supernova may have been seen in 774 CE. This motivated them to look for more links between the radiocarbon spike and supernova explosions. However, it’s not straightforward. 22/

https://videopress.com/v/Vccgtx98?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true

We have found supernovas with no radiation spikes and spikes with no length supernova. Further, some events might be related to super flares from M dwarf stars, but unfortunately there still doesn’t exist a simple explanation that can neatly explain the Miyake events. 23/

Based on previous records, a Miyake event may reoccur sooner or later. The problem is that a lot has changed since the last event. If a Miyake event equivalent to the one in the year 774 occurs now, it will lead to an internet apocalypse. 24/

In addition, infrastucture might get damaged and air travelers will be exposed to lethal radiation levels.
That’s why it’s essential to understand the nature of Miyake events and the exact physical phenomenon that causes them. 25/25

*Note*

1/ This post has NOTHING to do with the recent activity of the Sun. It is just one of many posts I write.

2/ They are likely related to super-flares discovered on solar-like stars, but the exact cause remains unclear.

26/26

Original thread here.

About 1300 years ago, an unexplained cosmic storm hit our planet. It left its imprints in the tree rings across the globe and the ice cores of Antarctica. Then, after 200 years, the event repeated, but this time it was 60% as strong. 1/#Thread #SpaceWeather pic.twitter.com/drdvXl6hoI
— Erika  (@ExploreCosmos_) December 14, 2023

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