Tag: Ocean Temperature

Ocean CO2 Outgassing With Temperature

Over at Dr. Jennifer Marohasyโ€™s always interesting blog, she makes an interestingย claimย about ocean outgassing of CO2.

From Watts Up With That?

Guest Post byย Willis Eschenbach (yes, Iโ€™m still banned from X/Twitter, seeย here).

Over at Dr. Jennifer Marohasyโ€™s always interesting blog, she makes an interesting claim about ocean outgassing of CO2.

Picture this: itโ€™s a hot day, and you grab a soda can thatโ€™s been in the sun. You crack it openโ€”pssshtโ€”and COโ‚‚ fizzes out, tickling your nose, maybe spraying your shirt if youโ€™re slow. Itโ€™s a tiny chaos, a burst you canโ€™t control. Now imagine that fizz across the oceanโ€™s sun-warmed surface, covering 71% of Earth, bubbling COโ‚‚ into the air we breathe. Wild, right? A bit mad. I reckon itโ€™s a missing piece of the climate puzzle.

Now, itโ€™s undeniable that warmer ocean water contains less CO2 than colder water. As the temperature rises, the CO2 outgasses from the ocean. But that wasnโ€™t my question. After reading her post, my question was, โ€œHow much?โ€.

How much increase in CO2 do we get from a 1ยฐ increase in ocean temperature?

My first step was to look at the Vostok ice core data. It shows that as the globe rose by ~ 5ยฐC, the CO2 level rose by ~ 100 ppmv. This gives us a CO2 outgassing trend of ~20 ppmv per 1ยฐC temperature rise.

However, itโ€™s not quite that simple. More of the ocean was covered by sea ice during the glaciation, reducing the outgassing ocean area. How much? Estimates are on the order of 30 million km^2, which is about 8.2% of the current ice-free ocean. So that would drop the value to ~ 18 ppmv/ยฐC.

Next, I went to my go-to AI, perplexity, which gave me the following:

To estimate the increase in atmospheric COโ‚‚ from a 1ยฐC rise in ocean temperatures, Henryโ€™s law and equilibrium dynamics between the ocean and atmosphere are key. Hereโ€™s a synthesis of insights from relevant studies:

โ€ข Henryโ€™s Law and Temperature Dependence

Henryโ€™s law states that the concentration of dissolved COโ‚‚ in seawater (C) is proportional to its partial pressure in the atmosphere (p):  C = k_H * p, where(k_H) is Henryโ€™s constant, which decreases with rising temperature (reducing COโ‚‚ solubility). For example, a 1ยฐC increase reduces(k_H) by ~4%[1][6]. This shifts the equilibrium, releasing COโ‚‚ from the ocean to the atmosphere.

โ€ข Model Estimates

1. Simplified Ocean Layer Model:  

 Using a 100m-deep surface layer exchanging COโ‚‚ with the atmosphere, a 1ยฐC rise increases atmospheric COโ‚‚ by ~6 ppm[1]. However, this assumes limited vertical mixing and may underestimate the full ocean response.  

   โ€“ For deeper layers (e.g., 3800m), the same temperature rise could yield ~20 ppm[1], aligning with glacial-interglacial transitions where a 5ยฐC warming corresponded to ~90 ppm COโ‚‚ rise (~18 ppm/ยฐC) [1][7].

2. Modern Context:  

Recent studies highlight complexities like the oceanโ€™s thermal skin layer and vertical mixing. Correcting for temperature gradients between the ocean surface and sampling depth increases estimated COโ‚‚ uptake by 0.8โ€“0.9 PgC/yr[2], but this focuses on current anthropogenic fluxes rather than equilibrium responses.  

โ€ข Key Variables

โ€“ Mixed-Layer Depth: Shallow layers (e.g., 100m) show smaller COโ‚‚ releases than deeper layers[1].

โ€“ Buffering by Carbonate Chemistry: COโ‚‚ dissolution forms carbonic acid, which dissociates into ions, adding complexity beyond Henryโ€™s law[5][6]. This buffers pH changes but does not prevent long-term COโ‚‚ release as temperatures rise.  

โ€ข Synthesis

The estimated increase ranges from 6โ€“20 ppm/ยฐC, depending on assumptions about ocean mixing depth and timescales. The higher end (~18 ppm/ยฐC) aligns with paleoclimate evidence[1][7], while modern models suggest lower values due to ongoing oceanic uptake[2][3]. These estimates exclude feedbacks like biological responses or changes in ocean circulation.

Citations:

This was interesting for a couple of reasons. First, my estimate of the long-term change (~18 ppmv/ยฐC) is the same as theirs. However, they point to something that I hadnโ€™t thought ofโ€”the short-term increase is due to the warming in the entire mixed layer (depending on the location, a depth of from 15m to 200m depending on location, average ~60 m), not just warming of the sea surface temperature.

They estimate the short-term increase using the mixed layer as being on the order of 6 ppmv/ยฐC. Given the very slow rate of mixing across the โ€œthermoclineโ€ (the area of rapid temperature drop at the bottom of the mixed layer), I would think that would be more relevant to our current situation of explaining a short-term rise in CO2.

So for purposes of this analysis, let me take a value of ~ 10ยฑ4 ppmv for each 1ยฐC warming of the top 100 meters of the ocean.

And how much has the top 100 meters of the ocean warmed?

About 0.33ยฐC from 1969 to 2020, per NASA.

During that time, CO2 went up by about 100 ppmv.

How much of that was from the ocean? Well, given the data above, it is something on the order of ~2 ppmv to ~ 5 ppmv, which is also about 2% to 5%.

Conclusion? While I agree with the good Dr. M. that outgassing due to ocean temperature rise is a โ€œmissing part of the climate puzzleโ€, at 2% to 5% of the rise in CO2, itโ€™s a small part of the climate puzzle, and as such it is generally ignored in the overall analysis.

My thanks to Dr. Marohasy for all of her excellent contributions to the climate debate.

Here, Iโ€™m back on the hill overlooking the ocean after a week in Australia, two weeks in Fiji, and a week in the Solomon Islands. Hereโ€™s dawn from where I stayed with friends in the Solos โ€ฆ

It was wonderful to visit old friends, I got to scuba dive the reef wall around Kennedy Island, complete with a moray eel, two turtles, giant clams, and the fish with the longest Hawaiian name, the โ€œHumuhumunukunukuฤpuaสปaโ€ โ€ฆ and hey, the waves arenโ€™t going to surf themselves โ€ฆ

My very best regards to everyone,

w.

PSโ€”As always, I ask that when you comment you quote the exact words you are referring to. It avoids all kinds of misunderstandings.

600 years of coral at Fiji shows the ocean was just as warm in 1400AD

For some reason our long climate proxies work for hundreds of years but always seem to stop working just before the man-made catastrophe appears. It seems to me that if a coral-tree-clam-sediment thermometer worked in 1393, it should work in 2020. Itโ€™s not like Earth has run out of trees, mud, pollen or corals.

From JoNova

By Jo Nova

For some reason our long climate proxies work for hundreds of years but always seem to stop working just before the man-made catastrophe appears. It seems to me that if a coral-tree-clam-sediment thermometer worked in 1393, it should work in 2020. Itโ€™s not like Earth has run out of trees, mud, pollen or corals.

So here we are again, this time with a new Fijian coral that runs 627 years continuously from 1380 to 1997. And the experts have to slap โ€œan instrumental recordโ€ on for the last twenty years to find the catastrophe. The actual single coral core shows the water of Fiji was the same or even slightly warmer in the Medieval warm period as it was in the 1990s. Thereโ€™s no sign at all, in 600 years of this coral, that man-made carbon dioxide has had any effect at all on the water around Fiji.

The new data comes from a coral core drilled in 1999, which explains why it suddenly stops. It does not explain why the world is about to end, but worried scientists waited 25 years to assess the coral core.

The apocalypse is upon us, but no one can find a new big coral to study it in real time?

Since the Pacific is a long way from Europe and Antarctica, we also confirm, yet again, that the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age were global events. Some force was warming the Earth 600+ years ago and the experts donโ€™t know what it was. Then the Earth cooled, and the experts donโ€™t know what caused that either, though the sun was suspiciously quiet, but weโ€™re not supposed to mention that. The water around Fiji started warming in 1800AD, long before humans invented coal power or model T Fords.

The experts tell us this is a โ€œsignificant departureโ€ from natural variability, and the hottest in 600 years. But itโ€™s only when they superimpose ocean buoys and other instruments that the โ€œrecordโ€ hottest ever temperature appears like magic at the end.

Despite the authors forgetting to label the instrument data in the key on the graph, the caption contains the fine print โ€œAlso shown is the most recent SST data for Fiji from ERSSTv5 (1998 to 2021) shown in (E) (black).โ€ So the only data for the โ€œrecordโ€ spike in the last 20 years of corals, comes from thermometers (and statistical infilling) instead. Wouldnโ€™t you know?

So yet again, even though I hear there is still coral living around Fiji, the key hottest ever record part of the graph is not from that coral.

Iโ€™ve been asking for years for a long proxy to show we have a crisis. One solitary proxy that assesses temperatures in 2020 as well as it did in 1703 or 1492. Does anyone know one?

If corals and clams work so well as thermometers do, surely Australia, with the worlds largest living reef, ought to have hundreds of old corals we can study? Youโ€™d think if our climate scientists cared about the climate and were given, say, $440 million dollars to spend, they could have found some?  But perhaps they have to leave them in drawers for 20 years so they have room to tack on the instrumental spikes at the end?

And here are lots more graphs from the paper showing that CO2 has made no difference to the climate. A is the Southwest Pacific. B is the Macassar Strait, D is from Palmyra, E is the central pacific, F is the Galapagos, and none of them show anything we should spend a trillion dollars on.

Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA)

Fig. 2. Fiji coral composite annual Sr/Ca-SST record, WPWP model simulations and proxy reconstructions, and the SWCP SST gradient.
Annual (light gray) and 15-year moving average (dark gray) Fiji coral composite record compared to (A)ย simulated southwest tropical Pacificย (10ยฐ to 22ยฐS, 150ยฐ to 180ยฐE) SST based on the average of 13 runs from the CESM LME (red) and their SD (light red); (B)ย Makassar Strait composite Indo-Pacific Warm Pool SST Mg/Ca reconstructions from (25) (Newton, pink) and (26) (Oppo, purple); (C) annual and 15-year moving average SSTs reconstructed for the southwest tropical Pacific from theย PHYDAย (orange); (D) annual and 15-year moving average SST derived from ฮด18O composite coral data fromย Palmyraย (60); (E) annual and 15-year moving average SST reconstruction for the Niรฑo 3.4 region in theย central Pacific fromย (21) (PHYDA, yellow) and (56) (EG, green) based on the ERSSTv3; and (F) Mg/Ca foraminifera SST reconstruction from the Galapagos in the eastern Pacific (61) and inferred eastern Pacific SSTs from lake epiphytic diatom from El Junco Lake,ย Galรกpagosย (62). (G) Annual and 15-year moving average SWCP gradient calculated as the difference between Fiji coral composite record and the Niรฑo 3.4 SST reconstructions from the PHYDA (yellow) and EG (green) and their average (black). SST presented as anomalies relative to 1883 to 1996 except in (B) where values are relative to the common period between all three records (1370 to 1840). Extended warm (cold) periods in the Fiji composite highlighted in red (blue) based on the change point analysis fromย Fig. 1. Also shown in (G) is the change point analysis for the average SWCP gradient (dark red lines).

The propaganda from Phys Org:

Fijian coral reveals new 627-year record of Pacific Ocean climate

An international team of climate scientists have used a 627-year coral record from Fiji to reveal unprecedented insights into ocean temperatures and climate variability across the Pacific Ocean since 1370.

Itโ€™s not even phrased as a link or association, itโ€™s so weak itโ€™s an โ€œinteractionโ€:

The study published in Science Advances, co-authored by Dr. Ariaan Purich from Monash University and Professor Matthew England and Dr. Rishav Goyal from UNSW, shows how human-caused climate change is interacting with long-term patterns of climate variability in the Pacific

Follow the long tenuous wandering path to โ€œhuman derivedโ€ blah:

The new coral record shows that the local ocean temperature was warm between 1380 and 1553, comparable to the late 20th and early 21st centuries. However, when combined with other coral records, the Pacific-wide warming observed since 1920, largely attributed to human-derived emissions, marks a significant departure from the natural variability recorded in earlier centuries.

No. The coral record does NOT show this:

The record also shows that present ocean temperature is the highest for the past 653 years.

And there are no implications for millions of people either, other than we should stop wasting money immediately:

The work provides new insights to understand how climate trends are leading to shifts in weather patterns and more extreme weather events that will have significant implications for millions of people living in the Indo-Pacific region.osystems across the vulnerable Pacific Island nations.โ€

The money line comes nextโ€“ the whole point of gouging a hole in a 600 year old coral is to advertise the renewable industry and justify trillion dollar government policy mistakes. What is a line like this doing in a press release of a scientific coral study?

The study provides further motivation for the global community to keep working towards limiting warming to 1.5ยบC by developing renewable energy resources at scale, to electrify the economy and phase out coal and gas.

Government funded scientists have become prostitutes for Big Government. I would love to be proved wrong. But we all know that no government funded professors could dare criticize this study.

Thanks to all the supporters who help fund me so I can.

REFERENCE

Juan P. Dโ€™Olivo et al, Coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction from Fiji extending to ~1370 CE reveals insights into the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Science Advances (2024). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ado5107

J. E. Tierney, N. J. Abram, K. J. Anchukaitis, M. N. Evans, C. Giry, K. H. Kilbourne, C. P. Saenger, H. C. Wu, J. Zinke, Tropical sea surface temperatures for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives. Paleoceanography 30, 226โ€“252 (2015).

Oceans2K records. (PS: When Steve McIntyre dissected the Oceans2K dataset he found many of the alkenone records in it were mysteriously cooling in the last fifty years.)

Image by Kanenori from Pixabay

Yes, IPCC, Our Climate Responds to Ourย Sun

Well, anyone who has a brain knows that the oceans are not boiling, but letโ€™s assume that isย just hyperbole.ย When actual research โ€“ when actual measurements were taken โ€“ย realityย turns out to beย the exact opposite.

From Science Matters

Byย Ron Clutz

John Gideon Hartnett writes at Spectator Australia The sun is in control of our oceans. Text is from John Ray at his blog, excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

In recent years, there has been observed an increase in ocean temperature. Those who adhere to the Climate Change version of events say that the oceans are getting warmer because of trapped carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere causing a massive greenhouse effect leading to boiling oceans.

Well, anyone who has a brain knows that the oceans are not boiling, but letโ€™s assume that is just hyperbole. When actual research โ€“ when actual measurements were taken โ€“ reality turns out to be the exact opposite.

New research shows that the temperature of our oceans are controlled by incident radiation from the Sun. Who would have guessed?

And as a consequence of the oceans warming, dissolved carbon dioxide gas is released due to reduced is solubility in ocean water. This means the warming of the oceans would lead (or cause) an increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.  One of the researchers in the study wrote on X.com:

A decrease in cloud cover and albedo means more short wavelength (SW) solar radiation reaches the oceans. Albedo is the reflectivity of the Earth.ย Lower albedo means more sunlight reaching the land and oceans and more warming by the Sun.

Figure 8. Comparison between observed global temperature anomalies and CERES-reported changes in the Earthโ€™s absorbed solar flux. The two data series representing 13-month running means are highly correlated with the absorbed SW flux explaining 78% of the temperature variation (R2 = 0.78). The global temperature lags the absorbed solar radiation between 0 and 9 months, which indicates that climate change in the 21st Century was driven by solar forcing.

I mean to say that this is so obvious. The Sun heats Earthโ€™s surface of which 71% is covered by the oceans! Basic physics!

The energy from the Sun powers all life on the planet and causes all Earth changes. Every second, the Earth receives the equivalent energy of 42 megatons of TNT in radiation from the Sun. That cannot be ignored. 

Climate Change, the ideological movement which I prefer to call a cult, views all evidence through the lens of their religious belief that the Earth is warmed by human activity. That activity releases carbon dioxide gas, which has been observed to be increasing. Their belief is that CO2 traps heat in a giant greenhouse effect. That is the dogma anyway. And I must add, we all are the carbon they want to eliminate.

But how much of that observed increase in CO2 is actually from natural causes and not from human activity? At least 94 per cent is. This new evidence now suggests it could be even more than that.

If the oceans emit CO2 gas following changes in the water temperature, which this research shows is due to the amount (flux) of solar radiation reaching the surface, then more CO2 comes from natural causes.

It is basic physics that as you heat water the dissolved gases are released due to a decrease in gas solubility. This means as the solar flux increases CO2 gas is released from the warmer ocean water.

Thus an ocean temperature increase leads to an increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, and not the other way around.

Space weather impacts the ionosphere in this animation. Credits: NASA/GSFC/CIL/Krystofer Kim

More Ocean Temperature Data & More Diving, This Weekend โ€“ Great Keppel Island

Iโ€™m back in Yeppoon. This afternoon I was at Wreck Point, and in the distance, over my left shoulder, you can see Great Keppel Island. According to the New York Times there is mass coral bleaching there .

From Jennifer Marohasy

Byย jennifer

Iโ€™m back in Yeppoon.  This afternoon I was at Wreck Point, and in the distance, over my left shoulder, you can see Great Keppel Island.  According to the New York Times there is mass coral bleaching there (CLICK HERE).  A photograph of the corals at Monkey Beach reef featured in an article in that newspaper just yesterday.   It was apparently taken on March 5, 2024.

(Iโ€™m hoping to see these corals for myself this weekend.   To be sure to know what I find out, to be sure to see the photographs Iโ€™m hoping to take, consider subscribing for my free email updates (CLICK HERE).)

The New York Times attributes the bleaching to extraordinarily warm ocean temperatures.  Of course, there is no chart, no data โ€“ no information on actual ocean temperatures.

It is exceedingly rare for any newspaper to ever publish location specific temperature data.  In fact, that is the only real type of temperature data: location specific data.    Everything else is a construct โ€“ a contrived statistic.

The picture of the bleached corals at Great Keppel Island, published in theย New York Times,ย was apparently provided by AIMS (Australian Institute of Marine Sciences).ย  Of course, they also have temperature data.ย  One of their key weather stations is at Square Rocks just to the northwest of Great Keppel Island.ย  There is data for the period December 19, 2009, through to February 19, 2024.ย  This data, consistent with the information I have previously published for the central region does not suggest that ocean temperatures have been particularly warm this last summer.

AIMS water temperature data for Square Rock just to the northwest of Great Keppel Island measured at 2.9 and 7.9 metres depths.

(There is very little difference in the two temperature profiles at the different depths so there is much overlap in the above chart. ย For clarity I will also now post these times series separately.

There is sea level data for Rosslyn Bay, just across a little further to the east from Great Keppel Island.  (I will be catching the ferry to Great Keppel Island from Rosslyn Bay marina at the end of the week, weather permitting and passing Square Rock.)

This sea level data indicates monthly averages are towards the low end of their annual cycle, and have stalled.ย ย  This is consistent with an El Nino event and the water sloshing over to the other side of the Pacific Ocean, you can read more about the phenomenon at the NOAA website (CLICK HERE).

Monthly sea levels at Rosslyn Bay Marina, more information https://psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/1760.php

Could it be that the bleaching at Great Keppel Island has more to do with lower-than-average sea levels for this time of year, rather than unusually warm water?  Iโ€™m just asking the question.  (It is perhaps better to have questions that cannot be answered, rather than answers that cannot be questioned.)

Square Rock also has air temperature data, and, of course, the two move somewhat in unison except that the air is consistently a little cooler.ย ย  This is the air that has all the greenhouse gases, that is meant to be warming the ocean.

AIMS air temperature and water temperature data for Square Rock, just to the northwest of Great Keppel Island.

Of course, only someone who believes the nonsense from the experts and who canโ€™t read a chart could believe that the air warms the ocean!

The sun warms the ocean that warms the atmosphere.ย  That is what happens in the tropics at least, which is where I live.

It has been a very wet summer and so my much neglected garden is doing well. ย  It can get very dry here. ย Usually drier summers are hotter summers.

MORE INFORMATION. UPDATE 17TH APRIL 2024

Iโ€™ve looked around for more information, and found water temperature data for Rosslyn Bay, that is just across from Great Keppel Island. This time series that is collected by the Australian Baseline Sea Level Monitoring Project is twice as long, beginning in 1991, and complete for this last summer.

Consistent with the AIMS data for Square Rocks, it does NOT suggest that this last summer has been particularly warm. It shows a distinct seasonal trend; it does not show global warming.

Water temperature data for Rosslyn Bay can be downloaded at http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/projects/abslmp/data/monthly.shtml

How To Push a Climate Crisis Hoax: Floridaโ€™s Record Ocean Temperature

The formula is simple: Take an extreme temperature limited to a period of a few days from only one extremely tiny location, then encourage click-bait media to push the narrative that it represents the climate crisis caused by CO2 and threatening the whole earth.

From Watts Up With That?

By Jim Steele

The formula is simple: Take an extreme temperature limited to a period of a few days from only one extremely tiny location, then encourage click-bait media to push the narrative that it represents the climate crisis caused by CO2 and threatening the whole earth.

A buoy in Manatee Bay managed by the Everglades National Park, is located north of Key Largo and indicated by the 2 red arrows in illustrations below. The official buoy data (upper left graph) shows water temperatures bounced between ~90ยฐF and ~101 on consecutive two days then plummeted to 85-86ยฐF over the following days!ย Clearly those water temperatures were being driven by dynamics other than rising CO2.

Manatee-Bay-record-temperature

Nonetheless, the PBS News Hour pushed notorious alarmist-journalist Seth Borensteinโ€™s report pushing the hoax with the titleย South Florida water temperature hits triple digits, may have set world record for warmest seawater. And New York Times pushes, โ€œ101ยฐF in the Ocean Off Florida: Was It a World Record?โ€

Another scientist, despite attempting to sound an alarm, was unintentionally quite perceptive saying, โ€œIf you climbed in the water there, Iโ€™m pretty darn sure it would have felt like youโ€™re in a hot tub.โ€ Indeed, theย science of solar pondsย has shown when freshwater overlays saltier water, heat gets trapped, and temperatures can rise by as much as 60ยฐF degrees higher than the surfaceย at depths between 5 and 10 feet.

Also notice the Manatee Bay buoy measuring water temperatures at a 5-foot depth is located in a small embayment surrounded by landform that prevents mixing with cooler water and forms a natural hot tub, as seen in the enlarged illustration on the left. Low winds and a high-pressure system further helped heat the bay, while muddy waters darkened the water enhancing solar heating.

To maintain the crisis hoax, itโ€™s alsoย important to ignore conflicting data. Southern Florida has several buoys, some measuring water temperature, some air temperature, and some both. Just 56 miles to the southwest of Manatee Bay, the VAKF1 buoy measured water temperatures that were 10ยฐF lowerย  than Manatee Bay on those same daysย (lower left graph), and then cooled to 86ยฐF. Manatee Bayโ€™s buoy lacked air temperature data but VAKF1 reported a high air temperature of 91ยฐF (lower right graph), which then cooled to the low 80s, even dipping to 76ยฐF.ย Those air temperatures donโ€™t even approach being unprecedented.

The hottest temperature ever recorded in the state of Florida was 109 degrees on June 29, 1931, in Monticello located over 400 miles north of Everglades National Park. According to Wikipedia Everglades National Parkโ€™s average maximum air temperatures for July is 92.5ยฐF And the record high for July was 102ยฐF. Nevertheless, Washington Post pushed โ€œExtremely warm waters linked to record-setting heat over South Florida โ€ฆ The extreme ocean heat comes amid Floridaโ€™s hottest July on record,โ€ trying to keep the climate crisis hoax alive.

For more on Climate Change Alarmism, check out the topic on our ClimateTV page.