Lahaina – Climate- Science.press

The Origin of Last Summer’s Maui Wildfire

In short, climate change or drought had little to do with this event.

Cliff Mass

During the past six months, research scientist David Ovens and I have worked intensively on the meteorology of the August 2023 Maui wildfires and have completed a paper that was accepted in an American Meteorological Society journal with a few revisions.

This blog will describe our results, some of which provide different conclusions than those discussed in many media accounts.

The City of Lahaina with the West Maui Mountains to the east before the fire.

To start, it is important to note that there were multiple fires on August 8-9, 2023 (see map below). On Maui, Lahaina was destroyed by one fire and there were large fires in the generally rural area of central Maui. Substantial fires also occurred over the Kohala area of northwest Hawaii.

The August 2023 wildfires were associated with strong, dry downslope winds gusting to 60-80 mph.

But why did it happen?

An unusually strong high-pressure area developed to the north of Hawaii (see map below), which resulted in very strong northeasterly trade winds approaching the West Maui (and other) mountains.

Importantly, the subtropical inversion, a stable layer often evident over Hawaii, was unusually low (because of the high pressure).

The strong trade winds and inversion were optimally positioned to produce a high amplitude mountain wave downstream of the West Maui mountains, a wave that resulted in intense and very dry downslope winds on the west slopes of the terrain (see cross section of winds and temperature for northwest Maui, below).

The winds that descended into Lahaina and initiated and spread the fire.

Look closely at the above figure and you can see a hydraulic jump structure, not unlike the situation accompanying water descending a dam ( see below).

This structure was even evident in the clouds and smoke the day of the Lahaina fire (see below)

One of the most amazing aspects of this event was that it was forecast nearly perfectly DAYS before by operational models and certainly by the research model I am using (WRF).

Below are the predicted surface winds on Maui for a short (17-h) forecast, as well as predictions 41, 89, and 137 hours in advance. All are similar and very accurate. The star shows the position of Lahaina; red and brown show the strongest winds.

The National Weather Service HRRR model was similarly accurate. There was no excuse for not warning the population of a terrible threat.

There was a lot of talk about the role of Hurricane Dora, which passed about 800 miles to the south of Hawaii (see satellite imagery below). Many media outlets and some politicians blamed the strong winds on Dora.

But is this true? The wind circulation of the storm was not large in scale, so the direct winds of Dora would not be a factor, but what about indirect effects?

David Ovens and I came up with a way to determine Dora’s impact with some confidence.

We started with an excellent 6.5-day forecast of the Maui winds and the hurricane. Then we weakened the storm by slightly cooling the surface around the storm. Hurricanes are VERY sensitive to the temperature of the sea surface and require sea surface temperatures of at least 80F.

The result was a profoundly weakened storm (see the difference below for the flow around 5000 ft (850 hPa)

And now the exciting part. The winds with the weakened (attenuated) storm were essentially the same as the full throttle beast (see below).

Hurricane Dora played little role in the Maui wildfire disaster.

Finally, there was a lot of talk about the Maui fires being the result of drought and climate change, particularly from Hawaiian politicians, the power company whose lines failed and some advocacy groups.

So we checked out the conditions before the fire. Turned out that precipitation around Lahaina was above normal BOTH for the summer and the previous year (see below)

And temperatures were near normal (not shown here, but in the paper). Ironically, the heavy rain contributed to the fires by increasing the amount of grass upwind of Lahaina.

In short, climate change or drought had little to do with this event.

The Bottom Line

Lahaina was a disaster ready to happen. A human-caused disaster. Large areas of highly flammable invasive grasses were just east of Lahaina. Grasses growing in abandoned farmland.

The power infrastructure was poor and prone to wind damage.

The National Weather Service and local agencies did not make the best use of greatly improved weather forecast models.

Warnings were inadequate, and roads were blocked by powerline crews and fallen poles/lines.

But the weather forecasts were stunningly good. We have come a long, long way

Hopefully, our paper and future work will contribute to ensuring this terrible tragedy never happens again.

A WIN! Biden doesn’t mention ‘climate’ once in his Maui fire speech

But one thing is clear – in his actual speech, he didn’t mention the word “climate” once. I’ll take it as a win, no matter how it came to be.

From Watts Up With That?

By Anthony Watts

Yesterday, we published what we thought might be a speech by Biden in Maui announcing a “climate emergency”. The goal of that was to pre-empt the White House by catching them off-guard, and hope it might have an impact due to the factual commentary we provided.

I’ll never know if we did or did not have an impact. But one thing is clear – in his actual speech, he didn’t mention the word “climate” once. I’ll take it as a win, no matter how it came to be. The full speech follows. Note that the strikethrough/corrections were added by the White House.

AUGUST 21, 2023

Remarks by President Biden Paying Respects to the Lives Lost in Maui and Reaffirming His Commitment to Supporting Residents

Lahaina Banyan Tree Park
Lahaina, Hawaii

12:47 P.M. HST

THE PRESIDENT: Well, hello, people of Maui. You’ve shown such absolute, incredible courage, and that’s not hyperbole. I want you to know, on behalf of the United States of America and all the nation, the American people stand with you.

Governor Josh Green, you’ve been incredible. From the day we’ve spoken on this, you’ve been way ahead of the curve. Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke; Brian ~~Schantz~~ [Schatz], our senator; Senator Mazie Hir- — by the way, Mazie, I told my granddaughter, whose name is Maisy as well — she said, “That’s why I like her.” (Laughter.) Anyway. But her name is Maisy as well.

And — and Jill To- — Tokuda, Representative Ed Chase, and Mayor Rick ~~Bassen~~ [Bissen]. Rick, when we talked on the phone, I never — you look like you played in defensive tackle for — I don’t know who, but somebody good. But, anyway, I want to thank you for your leadership in this unimaginable — during this unimaginable travedy — tragedy.

To my left is the banyan tree beloved by this community for over 150 years here in the former capital of the Kingdom of Hawaii, that has stood for generations as a sacred spot of exceptional significance.

One of the people who took me under his wing when I first got to the Senate was Danny Inouye. He used to talk about — used to talk about the Kingdom of Hawaii. He was J- — came from Japan, but it was amazing to listen to him.

Today, it’s burned, but it’s still standing. The tree survived for a reason. I believe it’s a powerful — a very powerful symbol of what we can and will do to get through this crisis. And for this — for as long as it takes, we’re going to be with you — the whole country will be with you.

You know, we will be respectful of these sacred grounds and the traditions that rebuild the way the people of Maui want to build, not the way others want to build. We’re going to rebuild the way the people of Maui want to build.

But, you know, it’s going to be hard. America’s deadly wildfire — deadliest wildfire in over a century.

And Jill and I have what’s left of — walked Front Street, what’s left of it. We’ve surveyed the damage from the air as well. The devastation is overwhelming.

To date, 114 dead. Hundreds of people are unaccounted for.

I remember when I got the call — my first wife and daughter — I was a young senator, and I got a call in Washington. I hadn’t been sworn in yet. I wasn’t old enough. And I was hiring staff in the Capitol in Teddy Kennedy’s office. And I got a phone call saying — from my fire department, and a young first responder kind of panicked and said, “You’ve got to come home. There’s been an accident.”

I said, “What happened?”

He said, “Your wife, she — she’s dead. Come home. Come home.”

A tractor-trailer had broadsided her and killed her in a car accident along with my little daughter. And — and I remember all the way down from Washington home wondering what a lot of people here are wondering: What about my two boys? How are they? They were in the car. I never got a read on that. Were they going to be all right or badly injured? Were they going to make it? Had they made it? It wasn’t until I walked into the emergency room, and I saw that they were there.

The difference between knowing somebody is gone and worrying whether they’re available to come back are two different things.

You know, and I — I remember one of the people who helped me the most was Danny Inouye. He helped bring me back. So I know the feeling that — as many of the people in this town, this community, that hollow feeling you have in your chest like you’re being sucked into a black hole, wondering, “Will I ever — will I ever get by this?”

You know, it’s one thing to know, but it’s quite another thing to have to wait, to wonder whether your family members are going to be okay.

Imagine being a parent wondering where your child is — where he is. I remember, as I said. You know, press reports of grandfathers crying for lost neighbors while trying to be strong for the ones who survived. Of a woman distributing clothing to survivors who says she didn’t lose her home, but she lost her hometown.

But I also want all of you to know the country grieves with you, stands with you, and we’ll do everything possible to help you recover, rebuild, and respect culture and traditions when the rebuilding takes place.

My administration has been in constant contact with the governor and congressional delegation and local leaders. As soon as I got the governor — governor’s request, I signed the master — the major disaster declaration that mobilized the whole-of-government response, which means whatever you need, you’re going to get.

For example, the Coast Guard and Navy immediately supported maritime search and rescue operations, while the Army helped fire suppression.

Here’s what — here’s what we’ve been doing since. First, we focused on search and rescue, which is still going on. Right now, there are over 450 search and rescue experts working around the clock.

Second, I’ve identified FEMA’s Administrator ~~Griswell~~ [Criswell] to lean forward, as she always has done, to help survivors get immediate aid. FEMA has quickly provided 5 — 55,000 meals, 75,000 liters of water, 5,000 beds, 10,000 blankets. We’re working to help remove the debris, repair roads, and restore power.

Additionally, my Department of Homeland — of Housing and Urban Development is working with the state to make sure survivors can move from emergency shelters into temporary housing to finally have a permanent place to call home as well.

The Small Business Administration is making low-interest federal disaster loans available to Hawaiian businesses — many of them you see here — burned to the ground; homeowners and renters; and nonprofits.

If you need help, you can visit FEMA’s disaster recovery center at Maui College or go to DisasterAssistance.gov — DisasterAssistance.gov.

Today, I’m appointing Bob Fenton, who’s here — where are you, Bob?

MR. FENTON: I’m right here, sir.

THE PRESIDENT: There he is. I’m appointing Bob Fenton as our Chief Federal Response Coordinator for Maui to lead our long-term recovery work. He’s one of the nation’s most experienced disaster response and recovery experts in America, and I’m dict- — I’m directing him to make sure the community has everything — everything the federal government can offer to heal and to rebuild as fast as possible.

And we’re focused on what’s next. That’s rebuilding a long — long-term — rebuilding for long-term and doing it together to help get us back on our feet, to rebuild the way we want to rebuild by making sure your voices are heard, by respecting your traditions, by understanding the deep history and meaning of this sacred ground and establishing your community, not to change it — its character, but to reestablish it.

We’re also going to bring the capabilities to help you rebuild so your critical infrastructure is more resilient in the future. All this matters.

Let me close with this. From stories of grief, we’ve seen so many stories of hope and heroism, of the aloha spirit. Every emergency responder put their lives on the line for — to save others.

Everyday heroes, neighbors helping neighbors, Native Hawaiian leaders offering solace and strength.

And this banyan tree. One called it the diamond in the rough of hope. Another referred to — “Fire cannot reach its roots” is what he said. “Fire cannot reach its roots.”

That’s Maui. That’s America. And to the people of Hawaii, we’re with you for as long as it takes, I promise you.

May God bless all those we’ve lost. May God find those who we haven’t determined yet. And may God bless you all. And may God protect our troops.

Now I’m going to — happy to turn this over to the governor, Governor Green.

12:56 P.M. HST

EXCLUSIVE: President Joe Biden’s ‘Climate Emergency’ Declaration Speech in Maui

From Watts Up With That?

Content of speech follows this introduction.

As you may know, after a week of terrible optics after the Maui wildfire, President Biden was excoriated in news and social media for sitting on the beach, on vacation and making “no comment” to reporters regarding the fire. Even though major news outlets like the LA Times are backing down on the idea that the fire was “climate caused,” and of course there’s no climate component whatsoever, much of the left is still using it as their talking point for why a “climate emergency” should be declared and putting pressure on the White House to do so.

The previous week, Biden had said he “practically declared a climate emergency” in response to hot temperatures in July and other factors, but was excoriated by the left for not actually declaring a climate emergency.

Then there has been the insane pronouncements of “global boiling” from the UN and the fact that their Secretary General has gone off the rails on the “climate emergency” issue. However, once again there appears to be no climate component to our hotter than normal summer, but instead seems have been caused by a lack of clouds, leading to increased sunlight reaching the ground according to this analysis by climatologist Dr. Judith Curry.

But, the left’s mantra has been “never let a good crisis go to waste.” Facts simply don’t matter to them.

Biden made a surprise announcement last week, cutting short his planned vacation in Lake Tahoe with an announcement he’d fly to Maui on Monday the 21st. Thus, it wouldn’t be a surprise to have Biden declare a “climate emergency” on Monday, with the burned ruins of Lahaina, Maui as the backdrop. The optics are perfect for him, and we know how much the White House is all about optics rather than substance.

Biden has already issued a preliminary statement here.

But it seems some Maui residents don’t want him there according to this article in Townhall:

Several residents expressed frustration to the New York Post, saying they would rather Biden not bother visiting after waiting so long to address the fires.

“I don’t want him here,” Lahaina resident Jay Awan said. “He’s just coming to Maui to look good in front of the cameras.”

We’ll see what happens.

What follows is a likely speech (if Biden decides to do it), preemptively written by Anthony Watts and Charles Rotter.

Remarks by President Biden to Tackle the Climate Crisis by Declaring a Climate Emergency

Location: Lahaina, Maui

Date: Monday, August 21, 2023

Ladies and gentlemen, members of the press, and most importantly, the brave residents of Maui,

I stand before you today in the historic town of Lahaina, a place that was once the heart of Hawaiian culture, now tragically scarred by the inferno that nature unleashed. The tragic events here on Maui have not just affected a town or an island but have touched the very soul of our nation. The loss of at least 110 lives, homes destroyed, history erased, and memories turned to ash; these are not just headlines or statistics. These are the heart-wrenching stories of your neighbors, your friends, and your family.

Unusually dry conditions, primed by the unprecedented effects of climate change, laid the groundwork for the wildfires we see today. Our people were left scrambling into the ocean, a desperate act of survival, because land – the very ground beneath their feet – betrayed them in the most horrifying manner. And while the fires may have been contained for now, the broader flame, the burning issue of climate change, rages on unchecked.

For years, scientists and climate advocates have been sounding the alarm. The continuous extraction and use of fossil fuels is not just an environmental issue, but a ticking time bomb that threatens our way of life, our safety, and our very existence. Today, right here in Lahaina, we’ve seen the devastation that this ticking bomb can unleash.

Kaniela Ing, a voice of this community, poignantly stated, “My island is on fire.” This sentiment is echoed across the world, as wildfires choke regions from Canada to Australia, heatwaves suffocate places like Texas, and extreme flooding drowns parts of Europe. It’s not just an island or a town; it’s a planet that’s crying out for help.

It is easy to revert to partisanship in moments of crisis. But the flames that tore through Lahaina did not discriminate based on political affiliation. They consumed indiscriminately. And that’s the nature of the climate crisis we face today – it respects no borders, no parties, no ideologies.

I’ve taken steps to protect public lands, rejoined the Paris climate agreement, and have pushed for a progressive environmental agenda. But the scenes here, as economist Umair Haque pointed out, signify that “practically” declaring a climate emergency is not enough. I’m here today to declare that it’s time for action, not just words.

Today, I want to make a commitment to the people of Maui and to all Americans: I will declare a national climate emergency. We will marshal every resource, every piece of legislation, every ounce of innovation and spirit this nation possesses to fight the looming threat of climate change.

To the skeptics and deniers, I urge you to come here, to see the devastation, to look into the eyes of those who’ve lost everything. This is not a theoretical debate for future generations. This is here. This is now. We can no longer afford to be on the sidelines, we must act now.

I call on Congress, on leaders at every level, and on every American: let’s invest in clean energy, let’s reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, and let’s make a future where our children won’t have to flee into the oceans to escape wildfires.

Thank you, and God bless the resilient people of Maui and the United States of America.

###

Note: This entire post, including the posited speech and header image, is entirely political commentary, representing our opinion, not actual events.IF Biden chooses to announce a climate emergency, we expect this will be very close to what he will say.

Undeniable Proof that Alarmist Climate Scientist Michael Mann is Misinforming the Public About a Climate Crisis!

Recently the ambulance-chasing commentator for a DemocracyNow video highlighted the tragic Lahaina fire by opening with “100 deaths and likely far more and linked to the climate crisis” suggesting the fire was was due to climate change drought.

From Jim Steele

Recently the ambulance-chasing commentator for a DemocracyNow video highlighted the tragic Lahaina fire by opening with “100 deaths and likely far more and linked to the climate crisis” suggesting the fire was was due to climate change drought.

For proof, she interviewed Michael Mann who initiated the climate crisis meme decades ago. Accordingly, Michael Mann reinforced her fear mongering link between fires and climate change, stating climate change increased a naturally occurring pressure gradient causing high winds that “interacted with epic drought”. His first big lie was blaming an epic drought. My attached illustrations present data for Maui County from the US Drought Monitor for the recent 8 years. Unlike Mann, Data Doesn’t Lie. An internet link is provided which includes the longer time series showing how Maui’s droughts oscillate every 4 to 6 years.

Please notice Maui‘s droughts are also seasonal. White and yellow spaces represent times of no drought, typically seen during the rainy season from December to February. Extreme and Exceptional droughts (perhaps Mann’s epic drought?) are the dark reds. The website is interactive, allowing you to see exactly what percentage of Maui County was in drought on any day for 23 years. My redlines represent 4 dates linked to the bottom row of four boxes showing the percentages of Maui County with each classification of drought intensity for that day.

My blue box highlights May 10, 2023. Notice there were zero droughts and no abnormally dry conditions. Red boxes represent similar dates as the Lahaina fire on August 8th. Maui’s rainless periodtypically lasts from about May 25 to end of July, so early August is typically dry. Yet there were no Extreme or Exceptional droughts on August 8, 2023. Only 15.9% of Maui experienced severe drought, while 64% experienced no droughts at all. Hmmmm, so what was Mendacious Mike talking about?

Clearly, Maui droughts are due to localized moisture conditions. Maui County is just 1,161 square miles, about the size of the small state of Rhode Island. When just 185 square miles experienced severe drought, you need to be brainwashed to believe global warming and evaporation caused Mann’s not so epic drought. Furthermore, Lahaina is naturally dry, situated on the leeward side of Maui’s mountains that wring out the moisture carried by the trade winds. Only 15” of rain fall in Lahaina each year compared to 300” on the mountains to the east.

Finally, the invasive grasslands that carried the deadly fire into Lahaina are dead in August and only require a half day of dry conditions to become highly flammable. It’s ridiculous to blame a hundred years of CO2 global warming for the abundance of invasive grasses that dry in one day. But Mendacious Mike never mentioned that fact. Fortunately, several honest research papers have warned Maui residents that they must manage the abandon sugar cane and pineapple fields to eliminate that build-up of fire fuel by invasive grasses. Unfortunately, governments did not act on their science.

Mann’s second big lie abused his typical half-truths to suggest the climate crisis caused a bigger pressure gradient that brought abnormally high winds. Being the furthest Hawaiian island to the north, Maui is affected by stronger northern trade winds that intensify as the normal high-pressure system strengthens each summer. Maui’s topography further intensifies those winds through the mountain valleys. Strong downslope wind events reaching 80 to 100 mph every 8-12 years have “demolished buildings, overturned large power transmission line towers, and uprooted trees.” Once or twice a year strong but more moderate winds occur. During the fire, 30 to 40 mph winds with gusts up yo 67 mph fanned the flames. These winds got a special name, the Lahaina Winds. Locals also call them “Lehua winds” after the red blossoms of the ʻōhiʻa lehua tree that shower the landscape during such events. The Lehua winds have been officially reported in the 1995 “A Natural History of the Hawaiian Islands” and in 1985 research reports. Even the http://maui-vacation-expert.comwrites about these Violent Winds on Maui.

Ninety-eight percent of Maui’s fires are started by human carelessness. Their extent is fueled by bad landscape management. Nonetheless Mann blames natural climate dynamics for this tragedy. It is like blaming the ocean for a man’s drowning, when his poor seamanship capsized his boat, and he didn’t bring a life jacket. But Mann will keep repeating such big lies until he gets dumb politicians to only accept his bogus opinions. Beware people!

Biden, Montana, Maui – ‘Climate Emergency’ Madness Continues With Special Guest Dr. Judith Curry

It has been a crazy week in the climo-sphere. Fires in Maui were blamed on “climate change” by the media, only for them to find out that this wasn’t the case at all!

The Heartland Institute

It has been a crazy week in the climo-sphere. Fires in Maui were blamed on “climate change” by the media, only for them to find out that this wasn’t the case at all!

President Joe Biden, after having a disastrous week of optics sitting on the beach while Maui burned, decided to fly there Monday. With the perfect setting for “disaster porn” from the burned city of Lahaina, he may finally declare an “official” global climate emergency next week.

The Biden White House loves their optics!

Also, a bunch of kids in Montana (well, actually their handlers) filed a climate lawsuit against the state citing the Montana constitution provision for a clean environment. They just won, arguing with exaggerations and cherry-picked data. Special guest, Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry will discuss her role in defending that lawsuit and her observations.

Tune in LIVE for Climate Change Roundtable at noon CT on Friday, August 18 to find out. And be sure to leave your questions for host Anthony Watts, weekly panelists H. Sterling Burnett and Linnea Lueken, and special guest Dr. Judith Curry.

After a False Start, Mainstream Media Largely Reports Accurately on Maui Wildfire

As has become a far too common knee jerk reaction as natural disasters occur, mainstream media outlets, like Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times, for example, were quick to blame climate change for the Maui wildfire and its horrific consequences. They were wrong, and for once, perhaps because of the sobering death toll, the mainstream media has begun to backtrack and acknowledge the myriad other factors are actually responsible for the scope of the Maui fires and the loss of life, homes, and businesses it has caused.

From ClimateRealism

By H. Sterling Burnett

A confluence of weather events and human error resulted in the tragedy that is the Maui fire.

As a scientist told ABC News in climate change toned-down story, “Why climate change can’t be blamed entirely for the Maui wildfires,” “We should not look to the Maui wildfires as a poster child of the link to climate change,” Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said Friday in a YouTube stream.”

The Hawaiian Islands have wet and dry seasons, and it is currently the dry season on Maui, and Lahaina, the city suffering the brunt of the wildfire’s wrath, sits on the naturally drier side of the island due to the prevailing trade winds.

“The dry season begins in May, if not earlier. Rain virtually stops in June and July and temperatures rise, making it the most popular time for visitors,” wrote DW in its responsible story, “What caused Hawaii’s devastating wildfires?” “August and September can be particularly hot, ….”

Among the factors that allowed Maui’s wildfire to grow so quickly was an abundance of fuel. This dry season followed a wet spring, which resulted in verdant growth of an invasive grass on the mountain slopes and valleys abutting Lahaina. Almost every story covering the wildfires mentions that after years of agricultural use, the land on the slopes was taken over by Guinea grass, a fast growing invasive grass, see, for example, Watts Up With That, Smithsonian Magazine, and the Washington Post.

During the wet season Guinea grass can grow up to 10 cm per day and reach 2 meters in height. Rather than keeping the Guinea grass in check by regular mowing, or better still removing and replacing with fire resistant native grasses and plants, Maui’s government allowed Guinea grass to take over. Abby Frazier, a climatologist at Clark University told ABC News that “[t]he main factor driving the fires involved the invasive grasses that cover huge parts of Hawaii, which are extremely flammable.”

Then there was Hurricane Dora, a category four storm that had recently passed Hawaii, delivering strong winds of up to 62 miles per hour that drove the fires, once started, down the slopes with amazing speed.

Hot dry conditions, check. A large load of dry fuel, check. High winds, check. Now you just need an ignition source.

I don’t think they’ve determined what sparked the fire, whether arson, carelessness on someone’s part or whether it was natural, say a lightning strike, but something sparked it. That accounts for the formation of the fire and its ferocity, but not the human tragedy, the death toll.

That is also all on Maui’s government. The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal both detailed the fact that fire officials and the island’s electric utility had warned for more than a decade that the island was at extreme risk of wildfires due to fuel build up, the naturally arid environment during the dry season, and high winds—the very confluence of conditions responsible for the still ongoing wildfires on Maui. As the Wall Street Journal reported:

Nearly a decade before a wildfire destroyed the coastal Maui town of Lahaina this week, killing at least 89 people, a report by Hawaiian fire researchers warned that the area was at extremely high risk of burning.
Another report, in 2020, tied fires to winds from a passing hurricane—similar to the ones that fanned the Lahaina blaze.

Even with all this, the Hawaiian government had established an extensive network of sirens across the island to warn people in case of an emergency, but the local government didn’t sound the alarm.

Yet local authorities said in the aftermath of this week’s devastation that though they knew wildfires were becoming more frequent in Hawaii, they weren’t prepared for one to roar through Lahaina.

The question is why weren’t they prepared? In addition, one might reasonably ask, why didn’t they trigger the warning sirens?

Some reporters and science pundits’ claims to the contrary, climate change was not a significant factor in Maui’s tragedy. The modest background warming did not cause the present dryness — Maui is in its historic dry season, nor did it cause poor land management, nor did it spark the fire, nor did it cause the winds from a hurricane, nor, perhaps most importantly, did it cause the government to fail to anticipate and prepare to fight such fires or decide not to set off the island-wide alarm system of horns to warn people once the fires started.

The people blaming climate change for Maui’s tragic fire and large loss of life are despicable. Climate alarmists linking climate change to Maui’s deadly wildfire are the worst kind of opportunists, grotesquely dancing on the smoldering bodies of those whose lives were lost to score political points. It is sick. No restriction on fossil fuel emissions would have prevented this terrible event.

In short, ecologist Jim Steele was right when he wrote, “The Maui fire would have devastated Lahaina in a colder or warmer climate. It would have devastated Lahaina in high or low CO2 concentrations.”

How many lives might have been saved if the government had cleared or removed the grasses and replaced them with native plants or had the government followed the recommendations of its own fire authorities and treated wildfires as a major risk, certainly a more immediate one than climate change, and had it sounded the extensive alarm network it had established allowing people time to escape. No one knows, but it is certainly a greater number than the zero lives it would have saved had it banned using fossil fuels for transportation and energy.

H. Sterling Burnett

H. Sterling Burnett, Ph.D., is the Director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy and the managing editor of Environment & Climate News.

In addition to directing The Heartland Institute’s Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy, Burett puts Environment & Climate News together, is the editor of Heartland’s Climate Change Weekly email, and the host of the Environment & Climate News Podcast.

The Maui Wildfires

The disaster is one of the deadliest US wildfires in recent years.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Unprecedented wildfires burning on the Hawaiian island of Maui have displaced thousands of residents, destroyed parts of a centuries-old town, and killed at least 96 people.

The disaster is one of the deadliest US wildfires in recent years.

The fast-moving fires, fanned by the winds of a distant hurricane, exploded overnight and moved so quickly that some residents jumped into the ocean to escape the flames and smoke. Crews are continuing to battle the fires, which have burnt through multiple neighborhoods, including the historic town of Lahaina.

“We just had the worst disaster I’ve ever seen. All of Lahaina is burnt to a crisp. It’s like an apocalypse,” said Mason Jarvi, a Lahaina resident who escaped.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/09/hawaii-wildfires-maui-explainer?ref=upstract.com

The Climate Establishment has been desperate to blame the tragic Maui fires on climate change, even though there is no evidence of this whatsoever. The fires were fanned by the strong winds brought from Hurricane Dora hundreds of miles away, at a time of year when vegetation is always parched.

So the Guardian leaps on board with this irresponsible and untruthful claim:

The climate crisis, driven by fossil fuel use, is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including wildfires like the ones Maui is grappling with.

Climate change not only increases the fire risk by driving up temperatures, but also makes stronger hurricanes more likely. In turn, those storms could fuel stronger wind events like the one behind the Maui fires.

The situation in Hawaii recalled scenes of devastation elsewhere in the world this summer, as wildfires caused by record heat forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of people in Greece, Spain, Portugal and other parts of Europe, and Canada suffered unusually severe fires.

The so-called climate crisis is not increasing extreme weather events, or wildfires, as the Guardian lazily claims. Neither is it making hurricanes stronger. (Dora BTW was a Cat 4 storm). Some meteorologists believe that the direct impact of Dora was very small anyway – the strong winds, they argue, resulted from a high pressure gradient between Dora to the south and high pressure to the north.

And there was nothing unusual about the wildfires in Europe, even though the Guardian would like you to believe that Earth is becoming some sort of giant inferno.

Regardless of the exact meteorological set up, the fires were a tragedy waiting to happen, as USA Today explain:

Clay Trauernicht, a professor of natural resources and environmental management at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, said it would be misleading to simply blame weather and climate for the blazes.

Instead, Trauernicht, who noted in 2018 that the area burned annually by wildland fire in Hawaii has quadrupled in recent decades, pointed to unmanaged, nonnative grasslands that have flourished in Hawaii after decades of declining agriculture.

“These savannas now cover about a million acres across the main Hawaiian islands, mostly the legacy of land clearing for plantation agriculture and ranching in the late 1800s/early 1900s,” he wrote in a series of posts on the social platform X, formerly Twitter.

The transformation to savannas makes the land much more susceptible to the hot, dry and windy conditions that produce such wildfires, Trauernicht said, with much more buildup of fire fuels during rainy periods. Agricultural declines, meanwhile, also make firefighting more difficult as roads become unmaintained, irrigation and water storage lessen and those familiar with the land move away.
“The burden Hawaii’s current fire problem places on emergency responders, the impacts on farms and ecosystems, the losses our community’s experiencing right now – it’s mostly from benign neglect,” he wrote.

While maddening, the situation also offers a glimmer of hope, Trauernicht said.

“Hawaii’s fire problem could be far, far more manageable with adequate support, planning and resources for fuel reduction projects, agricultural land use and restoration and reforestation around communities and the foot of our forests,” he wrote.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/08/09/how-did-the-maui-fires-start-human-habitation-may-be-partly-to-blame/70559241007/

He also states:

The wet season could spur plants like Guinea grass, an invasive species found across parts of Maui, to grow as quickly as 6in (15cm) a day and reach up to 10ft (3 meters) tall. That grass creates a tinderbox that’s ripe for wildfire as it dries out.

You’re almost talking of a forest of grass.

The land in Hawaii was originally cleared mainly for sugar and pineapple plantations, which ironically brought riches to the islands and an influx of workers from the mainland. The Washington Post took up the story in 2017:

KAHULUI, Maui — Tens of thousands of abandoned acres of farmland lie fallow on this island, cemeteries of Hawaii’s defunct plantation era, which met its end last year when the state’s last remaining sugar grower shut down an operation that had run for 146 years.

Hawaiian Commercial & Sugar Co.’s sprawling sugar cane fields used to provide visitors to Maui a rolling green blanket as they arrived at the airport, but they are newly stagnant, joining other growers in a long decline. Facing competition from cheap foreign labor, a shortage of farmworkers and some of the nation’s highest land costs, the sugar and pineapple plantations that used to be the state’s lifeblood are not redeploying into active agriculture, raising questions about the industry’s future here.
“Pineapple is lost, sugar is lost, and we now have one sole industry, which is a very dangerous position to be in,” said Maui County Councilman Alika Atay. “We have put all our eggs into one basket, and that is tourism. But not everybody who lives on this island wants to work in the hotel industry, and it’s almost impossible to feed a family here working as a farmer. We are now seeing drastic displacement of young people leaving Maui because of a lack of economic opportunity.”

The closure of Maui’s last sugar producer marked a pivotal moment in Hawaii’s agricultural production. Since 1980, Hawaii’s total land use for agricultural production has shrunk by about 68 percent, according to data from the University of Hawaii.

Sugar had, at one point, been Hawaii’s top crop. Now the corn seed industry is the state’s dominant agricultural land user, followed by commercial forestry and macadamia nuts. But none of those products, not even when combined, come anywhere close to filling the economic void created by the loss of sugar and pineapple.

The sugar industry, which helped usher Hawaii into statehood, steered the state’s politics and economy for more than a century. It helped build company towns inhabited by multiethnic field laborers from Asia and Europe.

With statehood came U.S. labor laws, inspiring Hawaii’s biggest sugar and pineapple producers to embrace cheaper foreign labor. As monocrop agriculture declined, the state put its economic faith in tourism, which accelerated as jet plane travel became faster and more affordable. Plantation companies either vanished or transitioned into land-development firms.

The passage of the plantation heyday has been slow but impactful. In 1980, Hawaii hosted 14 sugar and four pineapple plantations that farmed more than 300,000 acres. In 2017, these two crops account for less than 5,000 acres. Once the largest pineapple plantation in the world, the island of Lanai’s former crop beds are now parched and deserted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/with-pineapple-and-sugar-production-gone-hawaii-weighs-its-agricultural-future/2017/12/17/c6e69236-e105-11e7-8679-a9728984779c_story.html

It is ironic that the forest clearances, which brought wealth to Hawaiians, are now ultimately responsible for so many deaths now.

The Real Cause of the Maui Wildfire Disaster

Strong dry winds support fire and result in rapid movement of the flame front, as well as moving embers ahead. The winds could well have started the fire by damaging infrastructure. As noted in my earlier blog, a huge reserve of dry, dry winds was in place.

From The Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Cliff Mass

This blog will discuss the key reason for the Maui disaster, one not discussed by the media and others: a high amplitude atmospheric wave forced by strong winds interacting with the mountains of northwest Maui.

An atmosphere wave that produced powerful, dry downslope winds on the western slopes of West Maui mountains.

A vertical cross-section of the predicted mountain wave.
Explained in detail below

The terrible disaster in Maui has been leading the news cycle for a week now, with media and others proposing many causes: climate change, drought, dry invasive grasses, and Hurricane Dora to name a few.

But none of them have identified the key reason why so many people died last week and why the damage was so extensive. None explained the 60-90 mph gusts that hit a very localized area. Winds strong enough to shear off wooden power poles, tear roofs apart, and down lines of power lines.

And it wasn’t Hurricane Dora, a relatively small tropical storm that passed 700 miles to the south of Hawaii.

Something else happened in Maui last week. Something capable of creating intense wind damage in one location and light winds a few miles away.

A phenomenon skillfully predicted by modern high-resolution models, and thus a feature we could have warned Lahaina’s population about. A phenomenon that would have been picked up by surface weather observations, if only West Maui had invested in inexpensive weather stations.

The Terrain

To understand what happened one must consider the terrain of West Maui (see below), which is dominated by terrain reaching approximately 5500 ft.

Looking eastward from a boat off of Lahaina, the terrain looms impressive (see below).

Picture courtesy of Professor Dale Durran, UW

Last Tuesday, strong winds approached the crest of the West Maui Mountains, not because of Hurricane Dora, but because of an unusually strong high-pressure area to the north.

We know this for several reasons. A map of sea level pressure (black lines), surface winds (wind barbs), and the standardized sea level pressure anomaly (difference) from normal (colors) at 9 AM Hawaii time on Tuesday are shown below.

High pressure is centered north of Hawaii and this high pressure was far more intense than normal just north and over Maui (indicated by the orange, red, and brown colors). The pressure anomalies due to the Hurricane Dora were very small in scale and limited to far south of Hawaii.

Hurricane Dora had little impact on Hawaii during this event, something confirmed by an expert at the National Hurricane Center.

Since winds approaching the West Maui mountains will be so important consider the situation at the same time for an elevation of around 2600 ft (925 hPa pressure)– see below. You can see the high to the north, the location of Maui (white arrow), and the hurricane (red arrow).

The wind anomaly from normal of the winds at this level is shown in color. Look carefully and you will see gray color over Maui…. five standard deviations from normal….which means VERY unusual. You will also note the clear separation of the strong winds of Dora from what hit Maui.

Not not only were strong winds approaching the West Maui mountains, but another feature that can foster a very strong mountain response also occurred: an area of stable air near the crest level of the terrain.

This is illustrated by the vertical sounding at Hilo on the Big Island six hours earlier (see below). The black line on the right shows the temperature with height. When the temperature does not fall rapidly with height, the atmosphere is generally stable. When it is constant with height or warming with height (an inversion), it is very stable.

Trust me, this stable layer is important. When strong winds accompanied by a stable layer near or just above crest level hits a terrain barrier, a high-amplitude mountain wave can form.

A wave that can produce intense downslope winds.

And this is exactly what happened last Tuesday over Maui.

The Smoking Gun

Last week, I asked David Ovens, a highly skillful atmospheric modeler in my group at the UW, to run a forecast of the Maui event using the WRF model at very high resolution (1.3 km grid spacing).

I was stunned by the simulation, which revealed the real cause of the disaster: a high-amplitude mountains wave with very strong downslope flow on the West Maui Mountains.

Below is a forecast vertical cross-section of the situation around 2100 UTC August 8th (11 AM Hawaii time). Winds are shown by color shading and arrows. The solid lines are potential temperature.

An extraordinarily high amplitude wave had formed, with air descending the western side of the Maui Mountains, accelerating as it plummeted towards Lahaina. At low elevations, the flow abruptly ascended, in a feature often termed a hydraulic jump.

Analogous flow can occur for water flowing over a dam.

The descending flow was not only strong, but very, very dry, as shown by the vertical cross-section of relative humidity (see below). Relative humidities below 20% descended down the mountains, with the driest air well under 10%.

The combination of strong winds and dry air hugely promotes fire, including rapidly drying surface fuels such as grass.

It did not matter whether the grass or light vegetation were wet or dry the days or weeks before: this extraordinary atmospheric animal would ensure they were dry enough to burn. Prior dry conditions during the weeks before were immaterial.

Lack of Wind Observations on West Maui: How Do We Know the Model Forecasts are Correct?

The lack of wind observations on West Maui is stunning. I know of no other heavily populated areas with such a singular lack of wind observations. Very bad.

So how do we know these model simulations are correct?

First, there is the damage, even before the fires got going. Power poles snapped in two. Powerlines down. Great physical damage to structures. Such damage is consistent with winds gusting to 60-90 mph.

Second, there are videos indicating such strong winds, and a number of people estimated wind gusts over 60 mph. Check this video.

Maui’s lack of observations is not responsible and cripples the ability of the county and local authorities to warn people of such events.

Confirming the Model’s Prediction on Hawaii

Similarly strong winds were predicted by the model over the northwest side of the Big Island, where strong flow hit similarly high terrain (see map below and wind forecast beneath it)

Strongest winds indicated by the orange color

But unlike Maui, we do have a good observation on Hawaii, at the USDA RAWS site at Kohala Ranch (see red arrow above).

During this event, the winds gusted to 82 mph! (see proof below). Confirmed!

The Bottom Line
The Maui event was the result of a high amplitude mountain wave and strong, dry downslope flow on the western slopes of the mountains of West Maui. The mountain wave was the result of strong approaching flow and a stable layer near the crest level of the Maui Mountains.

This event was not the result of climate change, Hurricane Dora, or an extended drought. It resulted from an unusually intense mountain wave/downslope windstorm produced by a fairly rare convergence of conditions.

This event was highly predictable using modern weather prediction technology. The combination of a reasonable weather observing network (which does not exist on Maui) and the use of state-of-science weather modeling, the population of Maui can receive far better warnings that can prevent this tragedy from occurring again.

The Origin of the Hawaii Fires/Preventing a Similar Tragedy in the Future

The terrible fires around Lahaina, Maui have resulted in a death toll of 67 (which will certainly rise) and an economic loss of billions of dollars.

From The Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Cliff Mass

The terrible fires around Lahaina, Maui have resulted in a death toll of 67 (which will certainly rise) and an economic loss of billions of dollars.

We can take steps to prevent this from happening again, including understanding why this event occurred and building the observation, warning, and action infrastructure as California.

Why did this event occur?

The origin of this disaster is now becoming clear: massive amounts of dry, dead fuel (mainly grass), strong downslope winds produced by strong trades interacting with local mountains, and human ignition, most probably from powerlines.

Dry grass and shrubs

Maui was a tinderbox ready to burn explosively. As noted in a number of articles and Hawaiian government websites, a large portion of Hawaii is covered by highly flammable, invasive, non-native grasses.

Flying into Maui in late June.
Dry grass everywhere (looking north along the West Coast of Maui)

Western Maui is typically wet in the winter and quite dry (and warm) during summer (see plot for a station near and north of Lahaina). Grass grows during the winter and then dies/cures during the summer, leaving brown desiccated grass. This is not climate change…this is the normal situation.

This year the winter was particularly wet, enhancing Maui grass volume, followed by a dry summer. A huge supply of dead fuel was ready to burn.

There has been a lot of talk in the media about drought and even “flash drought” driven by climate change (see Seattle Times headline below). This is all silly and irrelevant. The opposite of drought last winter resulted in lots of grass and even a normal summer would have resulted in the grass ready to burn now.

Also important is that the grasses are 1-10hr fuels that dry within hours under the proper conditions (low relative humidity, winds, sun). The conditions earlier this week were optimal for drying with warm, dry, downslope flow. The grasses could have been drenched a few days before and burned under such conditions. Climate change is irrelevant in this situation.

The Winds

Lahaina was hit by powerful winds, with gusts exceeding 60 mph.

Winds that provided oxygen to the fires, pushed the fire quickly forward, and downed powerlines, helping spark the fires.

There is a lot of talk about the winds coming from hurricane Dora, which passed 800 km to the south of Hawaii (see satellite image below).

The winds that hit Lahaina were NOT hurricane winds.

The winds that helped destroy Lahaina were caused by strong trade winds, produced mainly by enhanced high pressure to the north, interacting with Maui terrain to produce strong/dry downslope winds.

These were localized strong winds that amazingly were well predicted by the NOAA HRRR model and others.

Hurricane Dora was a small storm that passed well south of Hawaii. The strong winds of the hurricane did not significantly affect Hawaii as some claim.

NOAA map of the path of strong winds from Hurricane Dora

During the last day UW Research Scientist David Ovens, a member of my research group, ran the WRF weather prediction model at high resolution for this case.

The results are stunning. Below is the 27h forecast of wind gusts at 8 PM PDT on Tuesday, Aug. 8th. Gusts to around 65 knots (75 mph) around Lahaina (color shading). Pressure is also shown as are the wind vectors. A life-threatening prediction.

Moderate winds approached the mountains of West Maui and then accelerated down the western slopes of the terrain. A stable near crest level assisted.

Strong winds were also observed over central Maui west of Haleakala volcano: more grassfires occurred there.

Let me repeat: these were NOT hurricane winds but local downslope wind accelerations, produced by the occurrence of perfect meteorological conditions, something I will review in a future blog.

An analog to such wind acceleration is the strong winds that can occur in Enumclaw, Black Diamond, and North Bend, Washington under strong easterly (from the east) flow.

Ignition

Although little information has been forthcoming on this point, the ignition had to be human-caused, since there was no lightning in the area. Considering the massive wind damage to electric infrastructure, with reports of fallen and sparking powerlines, it is quite probable that the strong winds caused the ignitions that started the fires.

We Can Make Sure This Never Happens Again

First, it is essential the actual causes of the fire be understood (extensive dry grass, strong local winds), not climate change and “flash droughts.” Only a science-based, rigorous understanding of the wildfire’s origins can lead to a better outcome in the future. Incorrect, politized explanations work directly against solving the problem.

Second, many more wind observations are needed. The weather observing network on Maui and particularly western Maui is totally inadequate, as shown by the map below.

Virtually no wind observations around Lahaina. Unbelievable. Weather observations are critical for understanding the wind threat, to warn the population. Wind observations foster decisions to de-energize powerlines to prevent ignitions.

California has learned this lesson and has installed thousands of weather observation sites. Hawaii needs hundreds.

Third, much better use of weather forecast models for warning and decision-making is required. As shown above, current weather prediction technology is so good that most localized wind threats can be forecast well in advance.

The National Weather Service waited way too long to put out a Red Flag Warning (9:26 AM on August 8th). And with the intense winds predicted by the NOAA HRRR model, MUCH more severe warnings should have been made. NOAA and the State of Hawaii need to work out a comprehensive plan for better warning of such dire threats to life and property.

Powerline De-energization

Hawaii electric utilities should immediately make plans to turn off the power to threatened areas when strong winds are either observed or predicted. California and Northwest utilities have already begun this life and pre

The combination of rigorous science, more observations, better use of models, stronger and more aggressive warnings, and powerline de-energization can ensure that a tragedy like this week will never occur again in the Hawaiian Islands.

Hawaiian Fires: Fueled by Invasive Grasses, a Wet Spring and Human Ignition Sources

The Maui fire would have devastated Lahaina in a colder or warmer climate. It would have devastated Lahaina in high or low CO2 concentrations. The key is managing the dead grasses that become flammable in just hours. Climate change was irrelevant. Declaring a climate emergency to reduce fossil fuels is a useless remedy that only misdirects funds that will be needed to better manage a fire-prone landscape.

From The CO₂ Coalition

By James Steele

Figure 1 – Created by Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization

The Maui fire would have devastated Lahaina in a colder or warmer climate. It would have devastated Lahaina in high or low CO₂ concentrations. The key is managing the dead grasses that become flammable in just hours. Climate change was irrelevant. Declaring a climate emergency to reduce fossil fuels is a useless remedy that only misdirects funds that will be needed to better manage a fire-prone landscape.

The massive destruction and loss of life in Lahaina, Hawaii due to the recent wildfire has evoked tremendous compassion and concern from around the world for the people of Lahaina. I can’t comprehend the intense pain now being felt by the people who have lost loved ones, lost homes, and lost all their belongings. So how can such a tragedy be prevented from ever happening again?

First, according to meteorologist Cliff Mass, Hawaii is one of the most fire-prone states in the U.S. (see Figure 1 for some historical fires).

Lightning is rare on Maui. Fewer than thirty thunderstorms rattle across the Hawaiian Islands each year, and most occur during January and February. Accordingly, there have been no reports of an August lightning strike, so it seems doubtful this tragic fire was started naturally.

According to Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization, 98% of all Hawaiian fires are started by people, of which 75% are due to carelessness. Thus, a Smokey-the-Bear type campaign that “only you can prevent forest fires” would help raise people’s consciousness, especially newcomers. As retirees flock to Hawaii seeking the health benefits of a warmer climate, the population has tripled since 1980, which only increases the probability of a careless fire being started.

If started by an electrical spark, efforts to secure a vulnerable electrical grid is required. Sadly, the remaining fires have been suspiciously ignited by arsonists, and arson is nearly impossible to prevent.

However, there are other precautions that Hawaiians can take to prevent the rapid spread of fire that caught so many people in Lahaina by surprise. Dr. Clay Trauernicht, a professor of natural resources and environmental management at the University of Hawaii, notes wildfires have quadrupled in Hawaii in recent decades. We agree with his assessment that unmanaged, nonnative grasslands that have flourished in Hawaii after decades of declining agriculture have provided the fuel for more rapidly spreading and extensive wildfires.

As Maui’s pineapple and sugar cane plantations were abandoned, they became dominated by invasive annual grasses that flourish in disturbed soils. Fire experts categorize such small diameter grasses as 1-hour lag fuels, meaning that within half a day of dry weather, these grasses become highly flammable, allowing fires to rapidly spread in even moderate winds. Annual grasses typically die during the dry seasons. Maui’s rainless period typically lasts from about May 25 to July 15.

Furthermore, Lahaina is situated on the leeward side of Maui’s mountains. These highlands wring out the moisture carried by the trade winds, with only 15” of rain falling in Lahaina compared to 300” on the mountains to the east. Thus, Lahaina’s surrounding grassland vegetation is primed each summer to rapidly burn once ignited.

Figure 2 Precipitation Departure NOAA – Courtesy Cliff Mass

Counterintuitively, wet seasons create higher fire danger by increasing the abundance of dead grasses for the dry season. Spring of 2023 was cooler and wetter than normal (Figure 2), leading to high grass fuel load.

In contrast, dry seasons have little impact, as the dead invasive grasses become highly flammable quickly every season. Thus, the only protective measure for Lahaina’s future requires managing the grasslands as well as creating firebreaks that suppress a grass fire’s rapid invasion into the town.

Firebreaks protecting the whole town are especially important. If a grassfire reaches just one house in a densely packed neighborhood, such as much of Lahaina, that one house will radiate enough heat to ignite its neighboring house, which then sets off a cascading conflagration that can destroy a whole town.

The CO₂ Coalition’s scientists caution against adopting useless remedies such as that proposed by the national director of the Green New Deal Network, who demanded that “President Biden declare a climate emergency and activate politicians to take further climate action.”

James Steele is a biologist, author and former director of San Francisco State University’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus. He is a proud member of the CO₂ Coalition.

Tag: Lahaina

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