Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
Bloomberg are doing what they are accusing a tiny handful of conspiracy theorists of doing, by invoking the climate bogeyman!
They begin with a fatuous statement that extreme weather is getting more frequent, something which there is no evidence for.
But what is wrong (or a “false narrative”) about looking for the cause of ignition? After all, we know that most of the fires in Greece were human caused.
In the case of Maui, it appears to have been a power cable brought down in high winds. If you want to prevent wildfires, the first thing to do is eliminate possible sources of ignition. For years the local fire experts on Maui have been calling for power cables to be made more resilient.
But the reason why the fires spread so quickly and disastrously was the spread of invasive, savanna grasses in recent years, which have taken over abandoned plantations.
These grasses grow quickly in Hawaii’s wet winters, and dry out every summer, leaving a giant tinderbox. Add a spark and strong winds, and the disaster which recently occurred was inevitable.
Again, the local fire experts have been calling for these abandoned plantations to be properly managed, with the grasses cut back and firebreaks created.
Instead of following the facts, Bloomberg would rather peddle their own false narrative.
The agency headed by M. Kaleo Manuel, the deputy director of the water resource management commission for Hawaii’s Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR), delayed a requested diversion of water to fight the Maui wildfires on the grounds that such a diversion may have affected a local farmer, according to a letter sent by a Hawaiian water management company.
West Maui Land Co., a major water company in Maui, alleged in a letter that five hours passed between its request to divert water and its receipt of approval to do so from Hawaii’s Department of Land and Natural Resources (DNLR).
The company was instructed to contact a downstream farmer to ask about the impacts of a diversion on his operation, and by the time it had received approval it could no longer access the siphon that would have made the diversion work and enabled replenishment of water supply for firefighters.
M. Kaleo Manuel, DLNR’s deputy director of water resource management, “has focused on bringing planning and indigenous knowledge to the fields of water advocacy and management in Hawaii” and made comments suggesting that water use requires “true conversations about equity,” according to footage posted to Twitter and DLNR’s website.
The agency headed by M. Kaleo Manuel, the deputy director of the water resource management commission for Hawaii’s Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR), delayed a requested diversion of water to fight the Maui wildfires on the grounds that such a diversion may have affected a local farmer, according to a letter sent by a Hawaiian water management company.
The West Maui Land Co. wrote an Aug. 10 letter to Manuel, the day after the fires had done most of their damage, explaining that there was a five-hour gap between the company’s 1 p.m. request to divert water from streams in order to assist the Maui Fire Department (MFD) in its effort to battle the blazes and the agency’s 6 p.m. approval of the request. Manuel’s agency delayed primarily because it was concerned about the impacts of a water diversion on a downstream local farmer, according to the letter.
By the time the company received approval to divert water, the company was “unable to reach the siphon release to make the adjustments that would have allowed more water to fill our reservoirs” and be accessible to MFD, according to the letter. Thus, the company was unable to provide as much water to MFD as it may have been able to otherwise, and fire hydrants reportedly ran dry in Lahaina as the flames engulfed the town, according to Hawaii News Now. (RELATED: Beach-Lounging Biden Has ‘No Comment’ As Death Toll In Maui Nears 100)
In response to the request, the agency asked West Maui Land Co. if MFD had requested access to the company’s reservoirs and to check in with a downstream user of the water in question to ensure that his water taro patch would not be adversely affected by a temporary decrease in his available water, according to the letter. The company had already made an effort to contact the downstream user, but the letter explained that communications were spotty and that time was of the essence.
The wildfires have resulted in at least 110 deaths, a figure that may rise as search efforts continue, according to CNN.
“In an emergency situation, or when an emergency is anticipated, a temporary reduction (not elimination) of water to one individual’s farm should not be prioritized over and delay efforts to save an entire community,” the letter says.
Manuel “has focused on bringing planning and indigenous knowledge to the fields of water advocacy and management in Hawaii” in his capacity as deputy director of water resource management, according to his biography page on the DNLR website.
In footage of an old Zoom meeting posted to Twitter, Manuel describes his view that Hawaiians revere water, and that its management in modern society necessitates “true conversations about equity.”
Meet M. Kaleo Manuel, the official who refused to release water in Maui, contributing to up to 106 deaths.
A Hawaiian Studies major, Kaleo prefers a traditional, holistic "One Water" approach where water is revered, not used.
The company’s letter posits that it is impossible to know if the situation would have turned out differently had the diversion’s approval been granted immediately upon receipt.
DLNR has moved Manuel to a different division, a move that “does not suggest that First Deputy Manuel did anything wrong,” DLNR said in a statement shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation. The agency added that it encourages “the media and the public to avoid making judgments until all the facts are known,” and that it had no further comment on the matter.
He was also named as a 2019 Asia Pacific leader by the Obama Foundation, according to the Obama Foundation’s website.
The alleged hesitancy to divert the water joins the growing list of reported crucial failures of public and private institutions to respond to the crisis and mitigate its risks in advance. In addition to the alleged failure to immediately divert water, the Maui County crisis response official who did not sound emergency sirens had zero prior career experience in emergency management, the utility company whose downed power line reportedly sparked the fire reportedly focused on green energy while generally neglecting wildfire preparedness, the state had for years exercised questionable land management policies and the 911 system reportedly went offline.
Strong dry winds support fire and result in rapid movement of the flame front, as well as moving embers ahead. The winds could well have started the fire by damaging infrastructure. As noted in my earlier blog, a huge reserve of dry, dry winds was in place.
This blog will discuss the key reason for the Maui disaster, one not discussed by the media and others: a high amplitude atmospheric wave forced by strong winds interacting with the mountains of northwest Maui.
An atmosphere wave that produced powerful, dry downslope winds on the western slopes of West Maui mountains.
A vertical cross-section of the predicted mountain wave. Explained in detail below
The terrible disaster in Maui has been leading the news cycle for a week now, with media and others proposing many causes: climate change, drought, dry invasive grasses, and Hurricane Dora to name a few.
But none of them have identified the key reason why so many people died last week and why the damage was so extensive. None explained the 60-90 mph gusts that hit a very localized area. Winds strong enough to shear off wooden power poles, tear roofs apart, and down lines of power lines.
And it wasn’t Hurricane Dora, a relatively small tropical storm that passed 700 miles to the south of Hawaii.
Something else happened in Maui last week. Something capable of creating intense wind damage in one location and light winds a few miles away.
A phenomenon skillfully predicted by modern high-resolution models, and thus a feature we could have warned Lahaina’s population about. A phenomenon that would have been picked up by surface weather observations, if only West Maui had invested in inexpensive weather stations.
The Terrain
To understand what happened one must consider the terrain of West Maui (see below), which is dominated by terrain reaching approximately 5500 ft.
Looking eastward from a boat off of Lahaina, the terrain looms impressive (see below).
Picture courtesy of Professor Dale Durran, UW
Last Tuesday, strong winds approached the crest of the West Maui Mountains, not because of Hurricane Dora, but because of an unusually strong high-pressure area to the north.
We know this for several reasons. A map of sea level pressure (black lines), surface winds (wind barbs), and the standardized sea level pressure anomaly (difference) from normal (colors) at 9 AM Hawaii time on Tuesday are shown below.
High pressure is centered north of Hawaii and this high pressure was far more intense than normal just north and over Maui (indicated by the orange, red, and brown colors). The pressure anomalies due to the Hurricane Dora were very small in scale and limited to far south of Hawaii.
Hurricane Dora had little impact on Hawaii during this event, something confirmed by an expert at the National Hurricane Center.
Since winds approaching the West Maui mountains will be so important consider the situation at the same time for an elevation of around 2600 ft (925 hPa pressure)– see below. You can see the high to the north, the location of Maui (white arrow), and the hurricane (red arrow).
The wind anomaly from normal of the winds at this level is shown in color. Look carefully and you will see gray color over Maui…. five standard deviations from normal….which means VERY unusual. You will also note the clear separation of the strong winds of Dora from what hit Maui.
Not not only were strong winds approaching the West Maui mountains, but another feature that can foster a very strong mountain response also occurred: an area of stable air near the crest level of the terrain.
This is illustrated by the vertical sounding at Hilo on the Big Island six hours earlier (see below). The black line on the right shows the temperature with height. When the temperature does not fall rapidly with height, the atmosphere is generally stable. When it is constant with height or warming with height (an inversion), it is very stable.
Trust me, this stable layer is important. When strong winds accompanied by a stable layer near or just above crest level hits a terrain barrier, a high-amplitude mountain wave can form.
A wave that can produce intense downslope winds.
And this is exactly what happened last Tuesday over Maui.
The Smoking Gun
Last week, I asked David Ovens, a highly skillful atmospheric modeler in my group at the UW, to run a forecast of the Maui event using the WRF model at very high resolution (1.3 km grid spacing).
I was stunned by the simulation, which revealed the real cause of the disaster: a high-amplitude mountains wave with very strong downslope flow on the West Maui Mountains.
Below is a forecast vertical cross-section of the situation around 2100 UTC August 8th (11 AM Hawaii time). Winds are shown by color shading and arrows. The solid lines are potential temperature.
An extraordinarily high amplitude wave had formed, with air descending the western side of the Maui Mountains, accelerating as it plummeted towards Lahaina. At low elevations, the flow abruptly ascended, in a feature often termed a hydraulic jump.
Analogous flow can occur for water flowing over a dam.
The descending flow was not only strong, but very, very dry, as shown by the vertical cross-section of relative humidity (see below). Relative humidities below 20% descended down the mountains, with the driest air well under 10%.
The combination of strong winds and dry air hugely promotes fire, including rapidly drying surface fuels such as grass.
It did not matter whether the grass or light vegetation were wet or dry the days or weeks before: this extraordinary atmospheric animal would ensure they were dry enough to burn. Prior dry conditions during the weeks before were immaterial.
Lack of Wind Observations on West Maui: How Do We Know the Model Forecasts are Correct?
The lack of wind observations on West Maui is stunning. I know of no other heavily populated areas with such a singular lack of wind observations. Very bad.
So how do we know these model simulations are correct?
First, there is the damage, even before the fires got going. Power poles snapped in two. Powerlines down. Great physical damage to structures. Such damage is consistent with winds gusting to 60-90 mph.
Second, there are videos indicating such strong winds, and a number of people estimated wind gusts over 60 mph. Check this video.
Maui’s lack of observations is not responsible and cripples the ability of the county and local authorities to warn people of such events.
Confirming the Model’s Prediction on Hawaii
Similarly strong winds were predicted by the model over the northwest side of the Big Island, where strong flow hit similarly high terrain (see map below and wind forecast beneath it)
Strongest winds indicated by the orange color
But unlike Maui, we do have a good observation on Hawaii, at the USDA RAWS site at Kohala Ranch (see red arrow above).
During this event, the winds gusted to 82 mph! (see proof below). Confirmed!
The Bottom Line The Maui event was the result of a high amplitude mountain wave and strong, dry downslope flow on the western slopes of the mountains of West Maui. The mountain wave was the result of strong approaching flow and a stable layer near the crest level of the Maui Mountains.
Strong dry winds support fire and result in rapid movement of the flame front, as well as moving embers ahead. The winds could well have started the fire by damaging infrastructure. As noted in my earlier blog, a huge reserve of dry, dry winds was in place.
This event was not the result of climate change, Hurricane Dora, or an extended drought. It resulted from an unusually intense mountain wave/downslope windstorm produced by a fairly rare convergence of conditions.
This event was highly predictable using modern weather prediction technology. The combination of a reasonable weather observing network (which does not exist on Maui) and the use of state-of-science weather modeling, the population of Maui can receive far better warnings that can prevent this tragedy from occurring again.
The fires in Maui are tragic, but they were not unforeseeable.
Dr. Clay Trauernicht predicted this a decade ago.
Dr. Trauernicht is a professor of natural resources and environmental management at the University of Hawaii. In 2013, he wrote in a paper that giant swaths of grasses that are not native to Hawaii, coupled with dry conditions and high winds, pose a substantial threat of devastating wildfire.
A nightmare of fire swept rapidly through Maui killing and burning as it went. The loss is heartbreaking.
An immediate and effective disaster response is underway and is 100% warranted.
Exploiting these tragic fires for climate propaganda purposes is not and is 100% shameful.
The usual suspects, however, just couldn’t help themselves. Here’s just the start:
“How Climate Change Turned Lush Hawaii Into a Tinderbox” The New York Times
“Maui Wildfires: Climate Change is Wrecking Former Havens” Mike Gongloff in Bloomberg
“The role climate change has played in Hawaii’s devastating wildfires” NPR
“How climate change is making Hawaii more prone to wildfires” CBS
There is nothing meaningful that taxing, regulating and banning your energy use could have done to prevent nonnative grasses invading unused farmland. Your lifestyle is not responsible for normal dry conditions, nor would giving up travel and electric-powered conveniences have prevented high wind gusts from naturally occurring Hurricane Dora, hundreds of miles away, from fanning the flames.
Hawaii will (hopefully) learn from this tragedy and implement better fire prevention strategies.
The danger remains, however, that this natural disaster, along with other naturally occurring events such as heat in Athens or fires in Canada, will be used to amplify calls for the UN and President Biden to declare a “climate emergency.” An emergency declaration would bypass the checks and balances built into our constitutional government.
Emergency declarations are about taking immediate action when there is no time to deliberate. Sending aid to rescue people suffering from the fires in Maui is a perfect example.
How Americans live, work and use energy is not.
There is plenty of time to make policy using proper legislative and regulatory processes.
The President’s inability to garner majority support for his policies may be frustrating for the Climate-Left, but this is not why presidents are entrusted with emergency powers.
Declaring a “climate emergency” to bypass democracy is dangerous, abusive and cannot be permitted.
As President Reagan warned us, “if we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth.”
Large fires are now burning on Maui, Hawaii with severe damage to the historic town of Lahaina on Maui’s west side.
Downtown Lahaina burning. Picture courtesy of Alan Dickar
Satellite imagery shows two major fires… one near Lahaina and the other in the high country east of Kihei (see images below, the orange and red dots show the fires).
As I will discuss below, these fires are the results of strong winds and bountiful grass, plus human ignition sources. Wetter and cooler than normal conditions during the past six months played a role.
Wildfires and Hawaii
Believe it or not, Hawaii is one of the most fire-prone states in the U.S. (see map below of some historical fires)
With persistent trade winds out of the east or northeast, the eastern side of the Hawaiian Island is quite wet (with moist upslope flow), while the lee (or Kona) sides are dry (see climatological precipitation map of the Hawaiian islands below).
That is why many people vacation at Kona (Big Island), Lahaina (Maui), or Poipu Beach (Kauai), where warm, dry weather dominates.
There is sufficient precipitation on the lee side of the islands for substantial grasslands to develop, with grasslands increasing during the past several decades as agriculture has declined on Hawaii (e.g., the sugar cane industry is essentially gone).
To illustrate, here is an image taken by Google near Lahaina. Lots of grass.
An inferno ready to happen.
You can also view the large grassy areas on Maui on this satellite image (grassy areas are brownish in color)
Such grasses are highly flammable, even a day after rain, with fire growth greatly encouraged by strong winds. Much of the grasses on Maui are non-native, invasive species that burn easily.
And Hawaii frequently gets strong trade winds.
Why did the Maui fires happen now?
Very strong trade winds developed yesterday, as a large pressure difference (gradient) formed between a strong subtropical high and hurrican Dora to the south.
To show how unusual this pattern is, the figure below shows the sea level pressure at 11 PM PDT last night, and the normalized anomalies from the typical sea level pressure (colors).
MUCH higher pressure than normal was found just north of Hawaii (red and brown colors), while an area of lower than normal (blue colors) was found south of Hawaii (due to Hurricane Dora).
The result of this anomalous pressure pattern was greatly enhanced winds that fanned the flames and I suspect helped start fires (by downing powerlines). A familiar story to those of us in the Northwest.
How strong were the winds? Below are the maximum gusts on Tuesday provided by a NOAA website–some as high as 62 mph. Other reports were as high as 80 mph.
Model simulations/forecasts suggested strong wind acceleration on the lee slopes of the substantial terrain of Maui and downstream of gaps in its terrain (the University of Hawaii high-resolution surface sustained wind prediction for 6 PM PDT Tuesday is shown below)
The situation this year on Maui was made even more dangerous on Hawaii because the past half-year was WETTER and COOLER than normal, which enhanced grass growth. I repeat wetter and cooler.
I don’t have to tell you what some media will be ascribing the Hawaii wildfires to: climate change. Demonstrably untrue.
To demonstrate wetter/cooler conditions, here is the departure of precipitation from normal for the past six months (in inches). Western Maui was wetter than normal. Much of the big island was crazy wet. This excessive moisture was the result of several powerful Kona Storms this winter.
Temperatures the past six months? As shown below, a bit below normal over western Maui.
So we started with a region prone to grassfires (the western side of Maui). We had enhanced grass growth due to extra precipitation, and then the area was hit with unusually strong winds.
Many of the same ingredients came together to produce the recent large grass fires in eastern Washington.
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