When Europeโ€™s Thermometers Plunged 30 Degrees in a Day: The 1978/79 Air-Mass Boundary That Triggered a Century Winter

The winter of 1978/1979 (often called the โ€œJahrhundertwinterโ€ or โ€œSchneekatastropheโ€) was one of the most severe and memorable cold and snow events in modern German and European history, especially in northern and eastern Germany.

When the cold air advanced southward, temperatures plunged 20- 30 ยฐC within about 24 hours in many places. This triggered intense snowfall, freezing rain and glaze ice, and strong northeasterly winds that created metre- high (sometimes 5- 7 m) snow drifts.

The winter of 1978/79 had widespread effects across much of Europe, beyond the severe impacts in Germany (West and East). It initiated a prolonged cold, snowy period for large parts of the continent, with major disruptions from blizzards, extreme cold, freezing rain, power outages, and transport chaos, especially in northern and western Europe.

A split image depicting two contrasting weather scenes: one side shows a city street in Bonn, Germany, with a temperature sign reading +10ยฐC and people walking under umbrellas, while the other side illustrates a snowy, blizzard-covered landscape in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, with a temperature sign indicating -20ยฐC and people struggling through deep snow.
AI generated by Grok

The winter of 1978/1979 (often called the โ€œJahrhundertwinterโ€ or โ€œSchneekatastropheโ€) was one of the most severe and memorable cold and snow events in modern German and European history, especially in northern and eastern Germany.

What happened

Around Christmas 1978 the weather was mild (temperatures around +10 ยฐC in parts of Germany). On 28-30 December a sharp air- mass boundary formed over the Baltic Sea and northern Germany, separating mild, moist Atlantic air in the south from Arctic polar air (temperatures locally under -40 ยฐC farther north).

When the cold air advanced southward, temperatures plunged 20- 30 ยฐC within about 24 hours in many places. This triggered intense snowfall, freezing rain and glaze ice, and strong northeasterly winds that created metre- high (sometimes 5- 7 m) snow drifts.

Northern Germany (especially Schleswig-Holstein), parts of the then- GDR (e.g., Rรผgen), Denmark, the Netherlands, Poland, and other areas were hit hardest. The storm front eventually reached southern Germany (including the Lake Constance area) by New Yearโ€™s Eve.

A second major snowstorm struck northern Germany around 13- 18 February 1979, adding further heavy snow (locally 60- 80 cm or more) on top of the existing cover.

Impacts in Germany

  • Closed snow cover lasted 67 days in large parts of northern Germany (28 December 1978 to 4 March 1979), comparable only to the post- war โ€œHungerwinterโ€ of 1946/47.โ 
  • Roads, railways, and airports were blocked; dozens to hundreds of villages and islands (e.g., ~80 villages in Schleswig- Holstein, Rรผgen for about a week) were cut off. Power and telephone lines failed; people and livestock were stranded; helicopters and the Bundeswehr helped with supply and rescue.โ 
  • Casualties: at least 17 deaths in West Germany and at least 5 (officially) in the GDR; some later estimates suggest higher numbers in the East. Large numbers of farm animals died. Economic damage exceeded 140 million Deutschmarks in the West alone; the GDR suffered severe industrial and supply disruptions.

Broader European picture

The same weather pattern brought a long, cold, snowy winter across much of northern and central Europe (Denmark, Poland, Netherlands, UK, Ireland, Scandinavia).

Temperatures in parts of Norway fell to around -50 ยฐC. The event is regarded as one of the hard winters of the 20th century in the region, alongside 1928/29, 1962/63, 1984/85, and 1986/87.โ 

In short, the turn of the year 1978/79 marked the abrupt start of an exceptionally snowy and disruptive winter that paralysed northern Germany for weeks and affected large parts of Europe.

A snow-covered highway with numerous cars and trucks stuck in heavy snow drifts, with people walking alongside the vehicles.
AI generated by Meta

The winter of 1978/79 had widespread effects across much of Europe, beyond the severe impacts in Germany (West and East). It initiated a prolonged cold, snowy period for large parts of the continent, with major disruptions from blizzards, extreme cold, freezing rain, power outages, and transport chaos, especially in northern and western Europe.

Key effects by region

  • Netherlands and Belgium: One of the colder winters of the 20th century in the Netherlands (average -0.8 ยฐC; Hellmann cold index ~206). Two major snowstorms (late December 1978 and mid- February 1979, the latter among the strongest of the century). Rapid temperature drops, heavy ice glaze, and prolonged snow cover caused widespread disruption.โ 
  • Denmark: A multi- day snowstorm from 28 December onward, strongest in the south, with significant snowfall and high winds. Major transport and infrastructure problems.โ 
  • United Kingdom and Ireland: Severe snowstorms and blizzards in late December, particularly affecting northern Britain, Scotland, and parts of southern England. Large snowdrifts cut off some areas; Heathrow Airport closed. In Ireland, notable snow depths (e.g., up to 26 cm near Dublin) followed by unusually severe frosts. The continental cold also drove an influx of birds (e.g., smew, harriers, owls) fleeing to Britain.โ 
  • France: The cold wave arrived 30- 31 December with snow and abundant freezing rain. (Separately, France experienced its largest power outage to date on 19 December 1978, affecting about three-quarters of the country for hours, though this preceded the main Arctic outbreak.)
  • Scandinavia (Norway, Sweden): Extreme cold, with temperatures in parts of Norway dropping to around โˆ’50 ยฐC. Contributed to the broader northern European cold wave.โ 
  • Poland: Known locally in some accounts as a โ€œWinter of the Centuryโ€. Heavy snow (e.g., 70 and more cm in Warsaw and ลรณdลบ areas), transport collapse, economic damage (livestock losses, supply failures, industrial shortfalls), and infrastructure problems (including a major gas explosion in Warsaw linked to frost- damaged pipes). The hardships highlighted systemic issues and had political repercussions.โ 
  • Poland and nearby areas: Sharp temperature plunge (e.g., from near +10 ยฐC to โˆ’18/โˆ’20 ยฐC), up to 60 cm of snow in the north, road blockages, power -line failures under ice and snow, and temporary isolation of communities.

Broader continental impacts

The late- December weather pattern (sharp air- mass boundary and polar outbreak) triggered a long, cold, snow- rich winter across northern and central Europe. Persistent snow cover helped sustain further cold waves into February. Common effects included:

  • Transport paralysis (roads, rails, airports).
  • Power and communication failures from ice- laden lines and snow weight.
  • Supply shortages and livestock deaths.
  • Economic costs from disrupted industry, agriculture, and infrastructure.
  • Some flooding in coastal or thaw- related areas earlier in the period.

Overall, the event is remembered as one of the notable hard winters of the 20th century in Europe (alongside others like 1962/63), with the strongest human and economic impacts concentrated in northern Germany, the Low Countries, Denmark, Poland, and parts of the British Isles.

Three figures dressed in winter clothing navigating through deep snow in a frigid landscape, with a thermometer showing -50ยฐC nearby. Snow-covered wooden cabins and icy waters are visible in the background under a dark sky.
AI generated by Meta

The rapid 20- 30 ยฐC temperature plunge occurred because a sharp, quasi-stationary air- mass boundary (Luftmassengrenze) finally shifted southward, allowing extremely cold Arctic polar air to flood over regions that had been under mild Atlantic air.

Meteorological setup

Around 28 December 1978, a strong high- pressure system (anticyclone) over Scandinavia and northern Russia held very cold, dry Arctic air (locally under -40 ยฐC, and even colder farther east). At the same time, low pressure over the Rhineland and western Europe fed mild, moist subtropical and Atlantic air northward into central Europe (temperatures often +5 to +15 ยฐC).โ 

These two contrasting air masses met along a sharp frontal boundary that stalled for several days roughly over the Baltic Sea and northern Germany. The temperature contrast across this narrow zone was extreme, sometimes 20 ยฐC or more over short distances (e.g., mild โ€œbeer-gardenโ€ weather in southern Germany while freezing conditions and heavy snow existed only ~100 km farther north).

Why the sudden drop

  • For a few days the boundary held nearly stationary while secondary low- pressure systems tracked eastward along it, producing prolonged heavy precipitation (snow on the cold side, rain or freezing rain on the warm side).
  • When the last of these systems passed and the pressure pattern allowed it (around 30- 31 December), the denser cold polar air advanced southward as a cold front and surge.
  • Locations that had been in the mild air experienced the frontโ€™s passage: the mild air was displaced (often undercut or lifted), and surface temperatures crashed 20- 30 ยฐC within roughly 24 hours (examples include drops of ~28 ยฐC in places such as Hof and Weiden).

In short, the plunge was not gradual cooling but the abrupt replacement of one air mass by a radically different one once the boundary moved. This is a classic (though unusually intense) example of a cold- air outbreak behind a strong frontal system.

Beast from the East Showdown: 2018 Still Reigns Supreme Over 2021โ€™s Sequel and 2024โ€™s Empty Hype

The โ€œBeast from the Eastโ€ was a major cold wave and severe winter weather event that affected the UK, Ireland, and much of continental Europe in late February and early March 2018.

Infographic comparing the winter weather events of 2018, 2021, and 2024, highlighting the chaos of 2018, the unoriginal sequel of 2021, and the disappointment of 2024.
AI generated by Grok

The โ€œBeast from the Eastโ€ was a major cold wave and severe winter weather event that affected the UK, Ireland, and much of continental Europe in late February and early March 2018.

It is also known by the official meteorological designation Anticyclone Hartmut. The nickname โ€œBeast from the Eastโ€ (used by media and the public) referred to the bitterly cold easterly/northeasterly winds that transported Arctic and Siberian air masses across Europe.

Causes

The event was triggered by a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in the Arctic around 10-12 February 2018. This disrupted the polar vortex, leading to a high- pressure blocking anticyclone over Scandinavia. The resulting flow pattern reversed the usual mild westerly winds, drawing in very cold continental air from Siberia and Russia.

As this cold, dry air moved over the relatively warmer North Sea, it produced widespread lake- effect (or sea-effect) snow showers, especially across eastern and northern parts of the UK and Ireland.

Around 1- 2 March, it collided with Storm Emma (a low- pressure system moving north from the Atlantic/continent), intensifying snowfall, winds, and disruption, particularly in southern and western areas.

Impacts

  • Temperatures: Widely sub- zero by day; overnight lows around โ€“10ยฐC to โ€“12ยฐC in rural UK areas (feels- like temperatures lower due to strong winds). Some of the coldest late- February and early- March conditions in decades. A record low March maximum of โ€“4.7ยฐC was set in parts of Wales.
  • Snow: Widespread accumulations of 5- 20 cm, with 40- 50 and more cm in higher or exposed areas (e.g., parts of Scotland, northern England, south Wales, and southwest England). Blizzards and deep drifts occurred in places.
  • Disruption: Hundreds of schools closed; major travel chaos on roads, rail (some trains stranded for hours), and airports (flights cancelled); power cuts; some communities isolated.
  • Water supplies: Rapid thaw after the freeze caused widespread pipe bursts; over 200,000 customers in England and Wales lost supply for more than four hours (tens of thousands for longer).
  • Casualties: At least 10- 17 weather- related deaths in the UK (including road accidents, falls, and exposure); dozens more across Europe (especially Poland and other eastern and central countries).
  • Economic: Significant costs (estimates around ยฃ1 billion and more in the UK); impacts on retail, deliveries, energy demand, and construction.

A weaker follow- up cold spell around 17- 18 March was nicknamed the โ€œMini Beast from the Eastโ€.

The event highlighted vulnerabilities in infrastructure (especially water networks after the thaw) and linked extreme mid- latitude cold outbreaks to polar vortex disruptions, which some researchers connect to broader Arctic changes. It remains one of the most memorable UK winter weather events of recent decades.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Hereโ€™s a clear comparison of the 2018 โ€œBeast from the Eastโ€ with the main comparable 2021 event and the situation in 2024.

Overview of the Events

Aspect2018 (Beast from the East / Anticyclone Hartmut)2021 (Storm Darcy / โ€œBeast from the East 2โ€)2024
DatesLate February โ€“ early March (main phase ~24 Febโ€“4 and 5 Mar; mini follow- up mid- March)7- 13 February (peak around 7- 11 Feb)No single major equivalent event. Notable cold and snow periods in January and especially mid- late November
Primary CauseMajor Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) disrupting the polar vortex โ†’ strong high pressure over Scandinavia โ†’ Siberian and Arctic easterly flow. Combined with Storm EmmaEasterly flow of cold air from eastern Europe (Ukraine and Black Sea region) and Storm Darcy (named by Dutch Met Service). Linked to an earlier SSW but air mass not as extremeVarious cold snaps (Arctic and continental air at times). Media often speculated about SSW-driven โ€œBeastโ€ returns, but none fully developed into a major prolonged easterly outbreak
Air MassVery cold polar continental (Siberian origin); one of the coldest late- winter outbreaks in recent decadesCold easterly, but milder and origin slightly less extreme than 2018 (Met Office noted it was not as bitingly cold)Variable; some Arctic outbreaks but generally less sustained extreme continental cold
TemperaturesWidely sub- zero by day; overnight lows often โ€“10ยฐC to โ€“12ยฐC or lower (feels- like much colder with wind). Some March records setDaytime near or below freezing in many areas; overnight extremes to โ€“23ยฐC at Braemar (UKโ€™s lowest since 1995). Eastern Scotland โ€“10ยฐC to โ€“15ยฐC+January: lows around โ€“14ยฐC in Scotland (coldest January night since 2019 in places). November: significant cold (e.g., โ€“12.6ยฐC, coldest November night in ~15 years in some spots)
SnowfallWidespread 5โ€“20 cm; 40โ€“50 and more cm (locally higher) in higher/exposed areas (Scotland, N England, S Wales, SW England). Blizzards and driftsSignificant in eastern and SE England (10- 20 and more cm) and eastern Scotland (20- 38 cm at places like Aboyne). More regionally focusedNovember 2024: notable event with 8โ€“15 cm in Midlands, up to ~28 cm in places (e.g., Loch Glascarnoch or Crymych); described as most significant November snow since 2010. January had more limited accumulations
Disruption & ImpactsNationwide: schools closed, major road, rail and airport chaos (trains stranded for hours), power cuts, communities isolated. Post- thaw water supply failures (200,000 and more affected). ~10- 17 UK deaths; dozens more across Europe. Economic cost ~ยฃ1bn and more.Significant but more regional (especially east and SE England and Scotland): roads closed, travel disruption, some school and COVID vaccine centre closures, power cuts in places. Fewer fatalities reported; less prolonged national chaosLocalized and moderate disruption from snow and ice (schools closed in places, travel issues), but nowhere near 2018 scale. No widespread โ€œBeastโ€- level infrastructure crisis
Duration & IntensityLongest and most intense of the three, multi- week cold with two phasesAbout a week of severe conditions; coldest spell since 2018 but shorter and less extreme overallNo comparable multi-day national freeze and more heavy snow event

Key Takeaways

  • 2018 remains the standout event, the original and most severe โ€œBeast from the Eastโ€. It combined extreme cold from a true Siberian air mass, widespread heavy snow (enhanced by sea- effect showers and Storm Emma), and major nationwide impacts including infrastructure failures after the thaw.
  • 2021 was a genuine โ€œBeast from the East 2โ€ (media and some forecasters used the name). It produced the coldest conditions since 2018 (with a notable absolute low temperature record for the period) and disruptive snow, especially in the east. However, the air mass was not quite as cold, the event was shorter, and impacts were more regional rather than nationwide.
  • 2024 had no true equivalent. Cold snaps and snow occurred (notably a significant November event), and media frequently hyped potential โ€œBeast from the Eastโ€ returns based on forecast charts and possible SSW activity. None matched the intensity, duration, or disruption of 2018 or even 2021. The term is often applied loosely by the media to any cold easterly spell.

In short: 2018 > 2021 >> 2024 in terms of severity and national impact for these types of easterly cold outbreaks.

The Met Office and meteorologists generally reserve strong โ€œBeast from the Eastโ€ comparisons for events involving prolonged polar continental air with significant snow and sub- zero conditions across large parts of the UK.

New York Times Solves Winter Mystery: Global Warming Freezes Your Face Off โ€“ Experts Baffled

The New York Timesย  discusses the ongoing extreme cold wave gripping much of the eastern United States since mid- January 2026, with record lows (e.g., 6ยฐF in New York City, -34ยฐF in parts of northern New York), prolonged below- normal temperatures (up to 30ยฐF below average in the Northeast), frozen rivers/lakes, and dangerous wind chills. It quotes MIT research scientist Judah Cohen, who links this to Arctic warming (from climate change): melting sea ice in areas like the Barents and Kara seas, plus heavy Siberian snowfall, adds heat to the atmosphere, disrupting the polar vortex.

The New York Timesย  discusses the ongoing extreme cold wave gripping much of the eastern United States since mid- January 2026, with record lows (e.g., 6ยฐF in New York City, -34ยฐF in parts of northern New York), prolonged below- normal temperatures (up to 30ยฐF below average in the Northeast), frozen rivers/lakes, and dangerous wind chills.

It quotes MIT research scientist Judah Cohen, who links this to Arctic warming (from climate change): melting sea ice in areas like the Barents and Kara seas, plus heavy Siberian snowfall, adds heat to the atmosphere, disrupting the polar vortex.

This causes it to stretch and wobble, displacing cold air southward and disrupting the jet stream, leading to extreme cold outbreaks in eastern North America.

Cohen notes the current stratospheric pattern is unusually “stuck” and expects the cold to persist through February.

If global temperatures are rising overall, why has this winter felt so brutally cold for so long?

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

From News Busters

By Joseph Vazquez

Apparently,ย The New York Timesย has snowflakes for brains as it struggled to find the climate change link in the blistering cold that has gripped the Eastern Seaboard.ย Timesย reporter Eric Niiler ran a ridiculous February 7 piece of propaganda disguised as news thatย was lacedย with a complete lack of self-awareness:

The headline? โ€œWhatโ€™s Up With This Big Freeze? Some Scientists See Climate Change Link.โ€

Niiler floated the possibility that โ€œA warming Arctic can stretch the polar vortex, a high-altitude air ribbon, one says. The โ€˜wobbleโ€™ can disrupt the jet stream, causing extreme cold in the East.โ€

At least in the 1970s-1980s, frigid temperatures were more narratively consistent with the โ€œGlobal Coolingโ€ angle, but this was just the latest textbook example of climate media activists trying to have their cake and eat it too. 

He was at least apparently aware of the glaring contradiction but still attempted to shoehorn some kind of logic into it anyway. โ€œIf the planet is getting warmer, why is it so cold this winter,โ€ Niiler pondered. โ€œThe seeming contradiction comes up often when talking to Judah Cohen, a research scientist at M.I.T. who has been studying how global warming might also be causing colder winters in the eastern United States.โ€ 

Recall the Great American Cold Wave of January 1985 that also swooshed across the eastern states for one of the โ€œmost intense arctic outbreaks of the 20th century?โ€ The interesting factoid was that frosty event also occurred during, er, winter. Shocking, right? The National Weather Service summarized then that โ€œExtremely cold temperatures affected every state east of the Rockies with three new state record lows established.โ€

The Times republished The Associated Press to report on that โ€œMajor Cold Snapโ€ along the following lines, โ€œTemperature records shattered like icicles yesterday from the upper Middle West to the Gulf states, as Arctic cold covered much of the United States.โ€  

Hereโ€™s the funny part: In May of that same year (1985), following the snap, The Times fear-mongered that โ€œBeginning in a decade or two, scientists expect the warming of the atmosphere to melt the polar icecaps, raising the level of the seas, flooding coastal areas, eroding the shores and sending salt water far into fresh-water estuaries.โ€

But as JunkScience.com founder Steve Milloy pointed out February 1, โ€œ[A]t its 2025 summer minimum, the Arctic still had more than 5 million square kilometers of sea ice โ€” about the same as in 2007.โ€ In May 2025, the Antarctic ice sheet gained a record-shattering amount of ice between 2021 and 2023, reversing a trend of loss. 

Milloy slammed Niiler’s propaganda in comments to MRC Business. “Past the scientific impossibility of attributing past weather to emissions, climate hoaxers have yet to realize that they jump the shark with respect to public opinion and credibility when they blame cold weather on global warming,” Milloy stated. “There is no part of the emissions-driven global warming fantasy that includes colder weather. Every emission and more CO2 drives more warming everywhere all the time is their basic story.” 

Apparently, if we were to take Niilerโ€™s 180-degree spin, โ€œwarmingโ€ was also causing the reverse effect to happen too:

Climate warming in the Arctic is causing this disruption of the polar vortex, Dr. Cohen said. With more snowfall in Siberia and melting sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas, just north of Norway and Russia, the ocean is feeding more heat into the atmosphere, setting up a weather pattern that leads to a burst of extreme cold in North America.

Milloy took a blowtorch to this topsy-turvy logic:

Instead of just laying low from a tactical standpoint until the weather is warmer, they come out with nutty sounding headlines proclaiming global warming causes cold weather. They are literally insane as they have no awarenbess of how they hurt their own (ridiculous) cause.

Liquid โ†’ Solid vs. Solid โ†’ Liquid. Global Cooling or Global Warming? Heads I win, tails you lose? Either way, itโ€™s ManBearPig from South Parkโ€™s fault didnโ€™t ya know! 

Jeez, just pick one already!

False, New York Times, Climate Change Doesnโ€™t Cause Both Extreme Heat and Extreme Cold

The recent New York Times (NYT) article โ€œClimate Change Is Fueling Extremes, Both Hot and Coldโ€ by David Gelles claims that global warming is simultaneously driving โ€œcolder coldsโ€ and โ€œhotter hots,โ€ presenting recent U.S. weather as confirmation of a long-warned scientific expectation. That claim is patently false, built on a rewrite of both history and evidence. Actual data debunks the claims.

A cartoon depicting a police officer holding a sign that says 'Hot AND Cold?' surrounded by confused scientists, with icons representing extreme heat and cold in the background. The title highlights a misconception about climate change.

From The ClimateRealism

By Anthony Watts

A snowy street in Jersey City, N.J., featuring a person shoveling snow while cars are lined along the side of the road.

The recent New York Times (NYT) article โ€œClimate Change Is Fueling Extremes, Both Hot and Coldโ€ by David Gelles claims that global warming is simultaneously driving โ€œcolder coldsโ€ and โ€œhotter hots,โ€ presenting recent U.S. weather as confirmation of a long-warned scientific expectation. That claim is patently false, built on a rewrite of both history and evidence. Actual data debunks the claims.

โ€œColder colds. Hotter hots. These are the intense bouts of unusual weather that scientists for decades warned would become more common with global warming,โ€ asserts the author, repeatedly pointing to supposed polar-vortex disruptions as proof that warming can intensify cold extremes even as it raises average temperatures. This framing suggests a settled scientific consensus that never existed.

Letโ€™s start with what scientists have actually said about temperature extremes.

Observed data align with those original expectations that human CO2 emissions should cause a decline in cold days, not increasing cold extremes. Even climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, hardly a climate skeptic, makes this point in his analysis โ€œFact check: Climate change is not making extreme cold more common.โ€ Reviewing attribution studies and observations, Hausfather shows that the overwhelming majority of extreme-cold analyses find cold events less likely in a warming world, with only one out of dozens of studies suggesting an increase in cold in a specific case. The long-term warming signal dominates, making cold extremes rarer overall.

In the United States, which is the focus of the article, the picture is even less supportive of the โ€œboth hot and coldโ€ claim. As meteorologist Chris Martz notes in his X threadย posted here, extreme heat and extreme cold have both declined since the early twentieth century. As shown in the graphs he created (see below) the blistering heat of the 1930s and 1950s still stands out as the hottest peak periods on record, while cold waves dropped sharply after the late 1980s. Comparing the 30-year periods 1901โ€“1930 and 1996โ€“2025 using GHCN-Daily station data, Martz finds cold waves decreased by about 31 percent and heat waves by about 20 percent.

Graph showing U.S. heat wave frequency from 1895 to 2025, with a red bar chart representing the number of events each year and a black line depicting the 5-year running mean.

Line graph depicting U.S. cold wave frequency from 1895 to 2025, showing annual events with a 5-year running mean. Light blue bars represent the number of cold wave events, while the black line indicates the trend over time.

Those graphs are not cherry-picked anecdotes; they are station-based observations over proper climatological periods.

As Martz documents in his X rebuttal, scientists did not predict that warming would produce more frequent or more intense cold extremes. Only heat extremes were expected to increase. Martz cites the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeโ€™s (IPCC) 2001 Third Assessment Report, which explicitly stated that an increase in mean temperatures would lead to โ€œmore frequent extreme high temperatures and less frequent extreme low temperatures,โ€ a finding summarized directly from the IPCC TAR chapter available in the report PDF. The same report projected โ€œfewer cold daysโ€ and โ€œfewer frost daysโ€ across nearly all land areas during the twenty-first century.

That is the opposite of what Gelles claims scientists have โ€œwarned for decades.โ€

In a vain effort to support its untenable claims for warming causing extreme cold, Gelles suggests that climate change is altering the polar-vortex, implying that Arctic warming weakens the jet stream, allowing frigid Arctic air to spill south more often. But this idea is unsupported by observations. Climate at a Glance summarizes the evidence on temperature extremes in โ€œThe Polar Vortexโ€ and โ€œU.S. Heat Waves,โ€ showing that while hot extremes have increased in some regions since 1950, cold extremes have generally declined. Climate Realism has repeatedly called out media overreach on these topics, with numerous critiques on โ€œextreme coldโ€ and the โ€œpolar vortex,โ€ where the supposed link between warming and worsening cold is shown to be speculative and inconsistent with measured trends.

This article is not reporting science as it was understood or as it is observed, but retrofitting todayโ€™s headlines to yesterdayโ€™s weather. When summer warming is said to produce higher temperatures, Gelles is ready to blame it on climate change. When winter produces colder temperatures, he blames that too on climate change, in both cases based on the flimsiest of evidence, which is contradicted by the IPCCโ€™s assessments and the bulk of observational data.

Gelles should acknowledge that the scientific expectation in a warming world has long been for fewer cold extremes. Observations largely confirm that expectation. The idea of warming โ€œfuelingโ€ cold extremes may play better into the narrative that humans are causing dangerous climate extremes and wild weather swings, but it is factually wrong.

A cartoon character in formal attire holding a sign that says 'HOT AND COLD?' with an ice cube and sun illustration. He looks confused, surrounded by men in lab coats and buildings in the background, including a 'New York Times' sign.

The U.S. Without Coal? Good Luck.

First, letโ€™s establish the stark reality of coalโ€™s contribution to American Society during crises over the last decade

From Watts Up With That?

By Frank ClementeFred Palmer

This article was originally published in Coal Zoom and is re-published here with permission. 

First, letโ€™s establish the stark reality of coalโ€™s contribution to American Society during crises over the last decade:  

2014 Polar Vortex brought extreme cold across the U.S. resulting in record winter peak electric demands. Coal provided the majority of electricity but, even more importantly, coal power increased 92% YOY to meet the load.  Oil increased 12%, Wind 9% and Nuclear 7%. Natural gas (NG) generation decreased 6% YOY and Hydro declined 15%. Solar was irrelevant. NG was diverted to space heating needs and prices in the Northeast exceeded $100/ MMBtu. New England Utilities resorted to burning jet fuel.  

2019 โ€œCold Eventโ€ a severe cold wave caused by an Arctic Polar Vortex hit the East and Midwest leading to fatalities. In the PJM region (65 million people) coal power led all fuels at 37% of electricity. All renewables combined contributed only 7% of electricity.  In the MISO region (45 million people), coal provided 50 % of electricity and operated at 73 % of installed capacity.

2021: Winter Storm Uri impacted much of the U.S. Extreme cold forced the MISO grid, which stretches across 15 states and Manitoba, to make emergency load reduction. Coal-based generation surged 36% and met almost 50% of demand. Solar power was virtually non-existent, and MISO reported that โ€œoutput from wind generation was low throughout the duration of the event.โ€ NG prices increased from less than $3 per MMBTU to as much as $700. 

2024: Winter storm, multiple cold weather fronts moved across the country, setting low-temperature records. Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) noted that across the three storms, coal-fired power plants showed the most significant increase in utilization rates: โ€œWind generation faced challengesโ€ฆ while solar generation was entirely or almost entirely absent.โ€ Further, EVA concluded: โ€œHigher shares of solar facilities and fewer dispatchable resources likely would have resulted in widespread power outages.โ€

2025 Polar Vortex: Demand across the East, Midwest, and South reached 537 GW in January โ€“ the highest ever recorded and approximately 150 GW above average. Per EVA, coal-fired generation โ€œplayed a vital roleโ€ as capacity factors reached 70%. At peak demand, wind and solar were only able to generate 3% and .0.2% of the electricity to meet the load. NG prices spiked to $30/MMBtu compared to coalโ€™s $2.50. EVA estimated coal saved customers up to $1.4 billion.

Now, put these data in the context of the U.S. Energy Information Administrationโ€™s 2025 Annual Energy Outlook published just this past April. Despite the experiences presented above, the EIA โ€œReference Caseโ€ projects that within 10 years coal will be largely removed from the American energy landscape. Coal capacity will decline from 170 GW to only 3 GWโ€”a decline of 98%. Meanwhile, coal will produce less than 1% of the Nationโ€™s electricity in 2035. Also, coal production will decline from 500 million tons to 167 million and only 27 million tons will be used by power plants. In essence, the coal franchise will basically disappear in the U.S.

Solar, which has already demonstrated its inability to provide electricity in a cold crisis, is projected by the EIA to increase capacity from 127 GW to 476 GW. Solar generation is forecasted to grow from 200 billion kWh to over 1,000 billion kWh (a 400% increase). Wind, whose track record in winter is only slightly better than solar, is projected to grow capacity from 153 GW to 350 GW in just 10 years. Wind generation is forecasted to increase from 447 billion kWh to over 1,150 billion. According to the EIA, the U.S. will become ever more dependent on intermittent and non-dispatchable power as both nuclear and NG based electricity are projected to decline while coal is eliminated. Meanwhile, China, India and others are building baseload units (especially coal) to meet the reliability requirements of the next generation of AI and its associated Data Centers. These international planners of AI technology are well aware of the warning by Potomac Economic Research Group: โ€œIncreased intermittent output and its associated fluctuations โ€ฆ has resulted in more frequent emergency events.โ€

Some in the industry may scoff at the EIA projections because President Trump has taken several first steps to support coal. But keep in mind the Presidentโ€™s term ends in 43 months. Will it be back to Business as Usual?

Donโ€™t forget, coal generating capacity has declined from almost 300 GW to 170 GW in the past decade. It is not much of a reach to see how 170 GW can turn into 3 GW in another 10 years. The โ€œWar Against Coalโ€ is pervasive, relentless and heavily funded. Multi-Billionaire Michael Bloomberg has committed $500 million to eliminate coal and his support for the Sierra Clubโ€™s โ€œBeyond Coalโ€ Campaign is clear: โ€œWe want to close all U.S. coal plants.โ€ As many as 200 lawyers and organizers have been hired to litigate and work against coal. They attend hearings, lobby regulators, give speeches, talk to classrooms, write editorials and have been markedly successful in demonizing coal. And, if EIA is correct, the worst is yet to come.

Comment: Coalโ€™s role as a Cornerstone Fuel goes far beyond winter crises but is a 24/7 contributor to reliable and affordable electricity all year round. And, as far as summer heat goes, this paper is being written in a heatwave (June 26), where, even after the closure of hundreds of power plants, coal-based electricity still underpins key U.S. Federal Power Markets: MISO-32%. PJM-19%, SPP-33% โ€“ Just these three Markets stretch across 43 states, Manitoba and the District of Columbia.

Frank Clemente PhD Is Professor Emeritus at Penn State University. He specializes in research on the socioeconomic impact of energy policy and is the author of The Global Value of Coal, published by the International Energy Agency (2012). Professor Clemente has extensive experience in speaking, writing and presenting data on the value of coal to the U.S. and around the world. All opinions expressed here are presented independently from the University.

Fred Palmer Esq. served as CEO of Western Fuels before he joined Peabody Energy as Senior Vice President for Government Affairs. Palmer was Chair of the World Coal Association Board and a member of the National Coal Council. He received the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers Award for โ€œDistinguished Achievement in Coal Technology.โ€ He also received a Statement of Appreciation from the National Coal Council in 2015 with a plaque for โ€œGuidance since 1990.โ€  

This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and made available via RealClearWire.

New Texas Law To Force Renewables To Beย Dispatchable

Sounds like Texas is getting fed up with its electricity system being increasingly put at risk by wind and solar power.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Sounds like Texas is getting fed up with its electricity system being increasingly put at risk by wind and solar power.

After years of papering over the cracks with half hearted proposals, it appears that the State Legislature will formally pass a law requiring all generators, not just new ones, to be fully dispatchable.

Ed Ireland has the story:

In 2021, Winter Storm Uri pushed Texasโ€™s electricity grid to the brink, with just 4 minutes and 37 seconds from total collapse. Snow, ice, and freezing temperatures covered all 254 counties in the State for five days, starting February 13. Wind turbines froze, overcast skies incapacitated solar panels, some natural gas wells experienced freeze-offs, and even coal plants struggled with frozen equipment.

As power generators failed and electricity demand skyrocketed, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) ordered rolling blackouts across Texas. Some local utilities unknowingly cut power to areas with electric natural gas compressors, which stopped gas flows to generating stations, causing more outages. (The Railroad Commission of Texas created a new division, Critical Infrastructure, so this problem would never happen again.) The gridโ€™s frequency dropped dangerously below 60 hertz, nearly crashing, but a slight drop in demand and the recovery of some generation saved the grid from total collapse, which could have required weeks to recover from a โ€œblackโ€ start of the grid.

Since then, ERCOT, the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT), and lawmakers have repeatedly vowed to prevent another near-disaster. They have proposed ideas such as:

  • Weatherization requirements for power plants to handle extreme cold (passed in 2021 viaย Senate Bill 3).
  • Incentives for building more dispatchable power, specifically natural gas plants, such as the Texas Energy Fund (House Bill 1500, 2023).
  • Market reforms prioritize reliable power, such as theย Performance Credit Mechanism, which was debated but not implemented.

None of these proposals squarely addressed the grid reliability problem until Texas House Bill 3356 and Senate Bill 715 were recently approved by legislative committees and could become law. These bills set new reliability rules for all ERCOT power generators, not just new ones. They require all power generators on ERCOT, including wind and solar, to be dispatchable, meaning they can quickly adjust to meet demand.

To comply, generators must either build their own backup power, such as battery energy storage systems (BESS), or contract with others to provide their backup power.

Read the full post here.

Itโ€™s time we did the same here!

Gas Storage Plunges to โ€œConcerningly Lowย Levelsโ€

Not only did we come perilously close to blackouts this week, but our reserves of gas are also dangerously low

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Not only did we come perilously close to blackouts this week, but our reserves of gas are also dangerously low:

Plunging temperatures and high demand for gas fired power stations have reduced UK winter gas storage to concerningly low levels.

The UKโ€™s gas storage is under pressure this winter as the UK battles both extreme cold and high gas prices. The ongoing colder-than-usual conditions in the UK combined with the end of Russian gas pipeline supplies through Ukraine on 31 December 2024 has meant that gas inventory levels across the UK are down. As of the 9th of January 2025, UK storage sites are 26% lower than last yearโ€™s inventory at the same time, leaving them around half full. This means the UK has less than a week of gas demand in store. 
Gas storage was already lower than usual heading into December as a result of the early onset of winter. Combined with stubbornly high gas prices, this has meant that it has been more difficult to top up storage over Christmas. 
The situation is echoed across Europe. By 7 January 2025, despite many countries mandating minimum storage levels ahead of winter, European storage was at 69% capacity, down from 84% at the same time the previous year. The UKโ€™s total gas storage capacity is around 10 per cent or less than in France, Germany, or the Netherlands. 
As energy demand spikes due to the freezing weather, the UK has seen a particular strain on its gas storage. Despite being full ahead of winter, current gas inventory at Rough, the countryโ€™s largest gas storage site, which is operated by Centrica, is 20% lower than at the same time last year. Rough has played a crucial role so far this winter by supplying almost 420 million cubic meters (mcm) of gas since early November, enough to heat three million homes every day.
 

https://www.centrica.com/media-centre/news/2025/perfect-storm-reduces-uk-winter-gas-storage-to-concerningly-low-levels

Natural gas still supplies over a third of the UKโ€™s energy, seven times as much as wind and solar:

But in winter months, gas consumption can double or even triple from summertime, as power demand increases, and heating is switched on.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gas-section-4-energy-trends#full-publication-update-history

Average gas consumption over the year averages around 175 mcm/day, but the forecast for today is 363 mcm:

https://data.nationalgas.com/gas-system-status

Little wonder then that gas stocks get depleted. As of yesterday, we had 18752 of natural gas and 10365 GWh of liquified gas in store, enough for seven dayโ€™s consumption. This however is misleading, as it implies there will be no gas supplied.

https://data.nationalgas.com/gas-system-status

What is perhaps a more meaningful indicator is that we get about 200 mcm/day from the North Sea, both own production and import from Norway. This can reasonably be regarded as a secure supply.

With demand running at 363 mcm/day, that means we need to import 163 mcm/day of LNG, a big increase on the annual average of 50 mcm/day. Our gas storage of about 2600 mcm therefore represents sixteen days of LNG imports.

If we have not got enough gas in storage, we have to pay through the nose for imports in winter, when prices peak.

But of much greater concern is what will happen when North Sea gas production drops away. Demand for natural gas will still remain high in winter for many years to come โ€“ we still need it to heat our homes and generate electricity in weeks like this one. Banning further North Sea development, as Miliband wants, will simply make us ever more reliant on imported LNG, something that will not only cost money but also endanger our energy security.

How did Alberta wind up facing blackouts in the extreme cold?

With theย extreme cold, we are seeing very, very high demand. We set anย all-time recordย Thursday night, 12,384 megawatts. The key difference โ€” and thereโ€™s never one single factor that puts us into a grid alert โ€” itโ€™s the extreme cold, weโ€™ve had reduced imports and very little wind.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

h/t cedarsand: โ€œโ€ฆ at this time of year, we donโ€™t have any solar power โ€ฆ Over the last couple of days, the wind has dropped off dramatically. โ€ฆโ€

How did Alberta wind up facing blackouts in the extreme cold? A Q and A with AESO

โ€ฆ

Author of the article:
Jonny Wakefield
Published Jan 14, 2024 

We hit the demand peak on Thursday and it looked like we were going to be fine, there was no indication that we were going to be in a situation where we might have to shed load like we did last night. Suddenly 48 hours later, thereโ€™s warnings of potential brownouts and blackouts. Iโ€™m wondering how we got from a fairly stable situation on Thursday to what we experienced last night and might experience again this evening? 

With the extreme cold, we are seeing very, very high demand. We set an all-time record Thursday night, 12,384 megawatts. The key difference โ€” and thereโ€™s never one single factor that puts us into a grid alert โ€” itโ€™s the extreme cold, weโ€™ve had reduced imports and very little wind. And of course, when we get into the peak period from 4-7 p.m., at this time of year, we donโ€™t have any solar power. So on Thursday, we were in a bit better situation, because we had strong wind, we had 1,200 megawatts approximately throughout the peak period from four to seven. So that really made a difference. Over the last couple of days, the wind has dropped off dramatically. Weโ€™ve also had a couple of natural gas plants, one is offline, and one is operating at reduced capacity.

โ€ฆRead more: https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/how-did-alberta-wind-up-facing-blackouts-in-the-cold

State politicians were quick to point the main weak link was renewable energy.

Premiers pan green-energy plans as cold weather strains Albertaโ€™s electricity grid

Rob Drinkwater
Published Jan. 15, 2024 3:47 p.m. AEST

EDMONTON โ€“  

โ€ฆ

โ€œRight now, wind is generating almost no power. When renewables are unreliable, as they are now, natural gas plants must increase capacity to keep Albertans safe,โ€ Alberta Premier Danielle Smith posted on social media Friday, shortly after the provinceโ€™s grid operator issued an appeal for consumers to conserve electricity to protect the system.

A day later, following a second grid alert that warned of potential rotating blackouts, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe posted that surplus power it was sending Albertaโ€™s way was coming from natural gas and coal-fired power plants.

โ€œThe ones the Trudeau government is telling us to shut down (which we wonโ€™t),โ€ Moe said on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.

โ€ฆRead more: https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/premiers-pan-green-energy-plans-as-cold-weather-strains-alberta-s-electricity-grid-1.6725876

Wake up Canada. No amount of renewable capacity can save you, when wind and solar both fail at the same time. The only reason the Alberta grid clung to life during the wind fail is coal and gas power, from Alberta and Saskatchewan โ€“ power plants which the Federal Government is pressuring Saskatchewan to close.

Those who continue to support Prime Minister Trudeauโ€™s reckless crusade against reliable energy, the blood of your friends and neighbours will be on your hands.

Bloomberg: โ€œDonโ€™t be Fooled, Snow is Becoming a Thing of the Pastโ€

Ignore your lying eyes, what you are seeing is frozen heaps of global warming?

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Ignore your lying eyes, what you are seeing is frozen heaps of global warming?

Donโ€™t Be Fooled, Snow Is Becoming a Thing of the Past

Storms will keep happening, but the long-term trend is warmer winters with less snowfall, which will bring severe consequences such as water shortages and lost economic activity.

8 January 2024 at 22:00 GMT+10
By Mark Gongloff

โ€ฆ

Winter storms like the one that blanketed parts of the Northeast in snow this weekend will keep happening but less frequently. The long-term trend, especially in the normally colder parts of the US and other countries, is one of warmer winters with less of the white stuff.

โ€ฆ

Snow has been scarce in the US lately. Aside from the blizzard that swept the Plains and Midwest around Christmas, snarling travel, most of the country has been well below snowfall averages for this time of year, according to the National Weather Service. Only about a fifth of the country was covered in snow before this weekendโ€™s storm, the lowest in more than a decade.

โ€ฆ

At the rate weโ€™re cooking the planet, this is all just a taste of whatโ€™s to come. The best thing we can do now is turn off the oven. As thatโ€™s unlikely any time soon, scientists and policymakers should be busy adapting to the headaches that shrinking winters and snowfall will bring โ€” the agricultural impacts, longer allergy seasons, resilient pests, water shortages, lost economic activity and more. Whatever our feelings about the season in the past, there is no doubt weโ€™ll miss it when itโ€™s gone.

Read more:ย https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-08/winter-storm-aside-snow-is-disappearing-because-of-climate-change?embedded-checkout=true

Back in the real world, the East Coast of the USA might have gotten off lightly for a couple of years, but China and Russia have endured extreme cold this year, and Europe and Britain are enduring freezing weather.

Given the widespread extreme cold in most of the Northern Hemisphere this year, calling the end of snow because the US North East got lucky with the weather seems profoundly ignorant.


Update (h/t Anthony, MW) :-

Bloomberg seems to be denying the veracity of the UN IPCCโ€™s recent sixth assessment report, which unequivocally says there is โ€œLow confidence in the direction of changeโ€ of ย โ€œSnow, Heavy snowfall and ice storm or Hailโ€, globally or regionally.ย  Here is a link to the relevant pages of the UN IPCCโ€™s recent sixth assessment report:ย Extreme Weather Assessment by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC) โ€ข Watts Up With That?ย ย Does Bloomberg no longer believe in the UN IPCCโ€™s scientific conclusions?

Extreme cold on the table for Europe and then, the U.S.

In any case, we had a big winter forecasted in Europe.ย  The first shot came in December; perhaps Al Gore helped it out since most forecast services got caught flat-footed, and we all know about the Gore effect.

By Joe Bastardi

Rain and storms are not only important for the storms themselves, but when they start repeating, they try to tell you something.

Notice how much rain we have had up the east coast the past ten days.

I have clients in Europe involved in De-Icing planes. Because of the way things are done today in the EU, getting the materials to create the fluid can be prohibitive.  So, my client has to know well before winter when he can get the supplies before anyone else does and at lower prices.  So we talk all year round. He is one of those people who knows the weather inside out, so it is more like we conference, But HE LOOKS AT THE WEATHER ALL YEAR ROUND. Obviously, snow and cold to him mean more than what goes on in oneโ€™s backyard.

In any case, we had a big winter forecasted in Europe.  The first shot came in December; perhaps Al Gore helped it out since most forecast services got caught flat-footed, and we all know about the Gore effect. (Nature shoving it back at him at these conferences.)  I wrote this explaining how Mets reporting on storms hitting the UK were more concerned with blaming climate change than understanding what it was signaling!    https://www.cfact.org/2023/11/28/climate-agenda-blinding-people-to-the-forecast/ And then when it came and caused airports to close in Europe, the Climate Cabal (thatโ€™s what they are) claimed it was global warming that caused it, I have never seen such ignorance on display. Fitting, Ignorance, and Arrogance are what people who are pushing this are all about.

So look at the rain Nov 6-20 as heavy rain streaks into Europe:

Look at the cold that came Nov 26-Dec 10

It warmed up after this.ย  The last 2 weeks:

But the rains have come again:

This time, the cold is coming back and holding. And Europeโ€™s energy situation will be tested.

January temps and snow:

Germany is again an epicenter.

But this is the Canary in the coal ( COLD???)  mine for the US. Our winter forecast called for a warmer-than-average December, and then JFM colder and stormier than average. My concern is the next 2-3 weeks, though not terribly cold (It will be colder than average across the south but still mild across the north, but with normals coming down, it will be cold enough for snow to be put down). It will be followed later in the month, into February, by severe widespread cold.

I have been covering this threat since fall, and you are probably hearing tales of the stratospheric warming going on, something we counted on for the winter well before.  Most of the analogs we looked at had that kind of event. So, if right, it will be good old-fashioned grunt work that got in front of models.

This JFM forecast is from us:

These are not a probability scheme but actual temps. The US model 10 days ago had this:

It has โ€œcooledโ€ to this:

But there is no cool anywhere, just normal. So, we have a big difference with the model.

This is excerpted from Weatherbell.com on setting up the severe cold later in Jan.

Thirty days of snow on the euro.

So the snow gets laid down.

On Jan 8, the Euro 500 mb looks like this:

Here is the blend of 4 of the most severe 5 day cold shots in the last 50 years for the entire nation:

20 days later:

Here is the European forย  Feb 4:

There are a lot of hints.

There is a strat-warm that precedes a major cold.

There is an easterly QBO. This is associated with increased blocking and patterns that back up (for example cold in Europe first).

There is a migrating ONI Modoki with weak to non-existent comparative ( SOI) enso metrics.

Once to the 20th and beyond and especially centered around Feb 1 ( and, btw, its not like before that nothing is going on, there is plenty) the kind of severe extreme US cold that can deliver freezes to the LRGV and Florida, send it to 0 in NYC and -10 in Chicago; I think this is on the table. If it happens, it is not like it came out of nowhere.

OPPOSITE LAST WINTER when severe cold at Christmas flipped for JFM to warm,  We have been saying itโ€™s the opposite this year.

But if this does happen it fits into this idea:

In March I put out the Fab 5. 57-58,65-66,02-03, 09-10,86-87. for this winter. The hypothesis I have about what is causing warming says a strong short-lived El Nino would develop ( ONI). This was in defiance of modeling as the dynamic models were weaker and the statistical barely had any at all. As it turns out, with the SOI and MEI that was not a bad idea. The problem is the model was not forecasting for that, it was forecasting for the ONI. Those were the years shown.

Just using those years, Christmas should look like this:

It did:

So, from almost 8 months out, the correct analogs forecasted the warmth.

The entire HDD season starting in November:

JFM:

Central to this is respect for the La Nina base state shown so clearly by the MEI since the โ€™97-โ€™98 Super Nino.

This is clearly showing that El Nino can no longer last relative to the overall base state, so a quick turn to a La Nina for next year was forecasted. So, there is no lollygagging to a La Nada, The La Nina is coming gangbusters. Other areas of the ocean are not susceptible to the slosh back like this as we continue overall to get the input of high geothermal. Sorry, itโ€™s there, no matter what you want to say about man-made input.

With it comes the step-up function, the product of the overload, as big El Ninos go off ( this one amplified by last yearโ€™s volcano input of WV).

The way it warms due to the relationship of wv to temps has distorted the global wind oscillation, meaning we have stronger easterlies in the tropical Pacific in the means (intuitive if you warm up the western and northern Pacific more due to the circulation distributing heat). So, westerlies can not sustain themselves in the tropical Pacific, and the La Chateliarian response is a quick return in the atmosphere to the La Nina base state. And the Oceanic Nino Index is responding; look at this by next summer.

Hence, the Dec 2023  hurricane forecast for next year, https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-season-from-hell-first-look , which, if it has merit, means the hurricane season from hell is coming. That also is nine months out. So let us see when itโ€™s all said and done how N-M plays out with JFM in front of us. But rest assured, this has as its source information that is totally ignored in many circles, and I think is supplying an important source region for explaining the why of the weather and climate now and by doing that aiding in going forward.

Bottom line: Winter has played possum so far but it was supposed to. What I am seeing now says to me that JFM has the potential to turn severe, with the worst part for the states later this month into mid-February and Europe in January. It is exciting not only because of the weather but also because it is a test of the hypothesis that has been shown here on CFACT so many times.

If your car does not start or your energy prices go through the roof, youโ€™ll have seen it coming.

The postย Extreme cold on the table for Europe and then, the U.S.ย appeared first onย CFACT.