Mainstream Media Ignores Two Big Stories That Run Counter to the Net Zero Narrative

Food production in China is soaring, helped by slightly warmer temperatures and higher levels of carbon dioxide, while cows grazing on wetland pasture actually reduce emissions of the โ€˜greenhouseโ€™ gas methane, partly by gobbling up decomposing, methane-emitting plants. Just a couple of stories, based on recent scientific research, that readers would have missed in the Net Zero-promoting mainstream media. Alas, environmental correspondents do not cover such uplifting scientific material.

From The Daily Sceptic

BYย CHRIS MORRISON

Food production in China is soaring, helped by slightly warmer temperatures and higher levels of carbon dioxide, while cows grazing on wetland pasture actually reduce emissions of the โ€˜greenhouseโ€™ gas methane, partly by gobbling up decomposing, methane-emitting plants. Just a couple of stories, based on recent scientific research, that readers would have missed in the Net Zero-promoting mainstream media. Alas, environmental correspondents do not cover such uplifting scientific material.

In a recently published paper led by UCLA postdoctoral science researcher Di Chen, it was discovered that the โ€œmain factorโ€ affecting Chinaโ€™s crop yields was local air temperature change. โ€œWhen the air temperature in China is high, the yield will show an increasing trend, and vice versa,โ€ it said. Elsewhere, two agroecology researchers in the United States found that on ground that is regularly water laden, the majority of methane was released from decomposing plants and animals. As a result, removing feeding cows resulted in higher methane emissions. Of course, such a finding has enormous implications for water-laden countries like Ireland, whose cow belching-obsessed policy berks are planning to spend ยฃ600 million removing 200,000 cows from some the worldโ€™s greenest and lushest pastures.

The above graph shows the enormous rises in Chinese yields for staples such as rice, maize and wheat measured by hectogram per hectare. The researchers note that improved agricultural management has had a part to play, although yields started to rise even during the instabilities of the immediate post-Mao period. The scientists also note that there is no obvious increasing trend in precipitation, while Chinaโ€™s air temperature and the global CO2 rise โ€œhave the same trend as crop yieldโ€. Recent lower levels of Arctic sea ice are considered an โ€indirect processโ€, but the conclusions of the paper are clear. Warming extends the growing season and reduces damage from the cold. Increasing CO2 improves the photosynthetic rate of crops, improves growth rates and dry matter content, and thus improves food production.

This โ€˜denialโ€™ of counter-narrative climate science takes many forms in mainstream media, activism and politics. Mostly, itโ€™s achieved by omission, a fate that can befall anything that isnโ€™t useful for Net Zero promotion. Any suggestion that the climate is relatively benign compared to recent periods, with a little extra warming and a top up of CO2 from levels so low theyโ€™re approaching danger point, is countered with hysterical claims of boiling and collapse. One bizarre omission, covered in detail in the Daily Sceptic, is the rapid, and accelerating, greening of the planet.

The evidence for the greening of the Earth from atmospheric CO2 โ€œis now too obvious to denyโ€, said a group of scientists from the CO2 Coalition in a recently published paper. The graph above that accompanied their words, compiled from satellite data from 1982-2012, is a stunning demonstration of the wonders of CO2 plant nourishment. In fact, another recent paper Chen et al (2024) found greening had actually accelerated over the last two decades.

All this greening might be a wonder of nature, but it is just how biology works, although it remains largely unpublicised because of Net Zero hysteria. In the detailed CO2 Coalition paper, the scientists sought to explain why the nutritional value of the worldโ€™s most abundant crops โ€œcan and will remain high as atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase towards values more representative of those existing throughout most of Earthโ€™s historyโ€. The existing level of atmospheric CO2 is noted to be โ€œmuch less than optimum for most plantsโ€.

Meanwhile, interest in the carbon cycle on cattle farms has been growing following scientific experiments on the Buck Island ranch, 150 miles northwest of Miami. Comparing gases emitted by pastures grazed to those un-grazed, suggests that livestock is a net carbon sink. The Heartland Daily News reported that when cattle graze on land, the plants prioritise root growth over the plant matter above the surface. โ€œThe deeper the roots, the more plants sequester carbon in the soil through the photosynthesis process,โ€ it said.

Cattle are part of a carbon cycle. If you just model the emissions coming from the animal โ€œyouโ€™re missing the rest of the ecosystemโ€ commented Dr. Vaughn Holder, Global Beef Research Director at Alltech. Aside from reducing emissions from wetlands, livestock animals increase global food security by eating inedible plants and turning them into edible proteins for humans, i.e., their bodies. In addition, farmed animals eat a lot of food by-products that humans canโ€™t or prefer not to eat, such as the pulp left after extracting the juice from oranges. Holder observes that composting such materials increases emissions five times more than feeding it to dairy cows, while disposal in landfill creates 50 times more emissions than giving it to the animals.

The increasingly picky diets that urban greens want to foist on the rest of us have little place for meat. Greenhouse gas emissions are a convenient scare to remove an ingredient that has been an essential and healthy part of the diet since homo sapiens emerged as a distinct omnivorous species. But if you canโ€™t remove meat just yet, take it out on the cows and force them to wear special King Charles-endorsed masks to capture some of those evil extrusions. 

Chris Morrison is the Daily Scepticโ€™s Environment Editor.

Calling all Brits: Vote Early, Vote often

Bill McAuley, an engineer alumnus of Imperial College, London, mentions the following petition on the UK Parliamentโ€™s website. If the petition gains 100,000 signatures, Parliament will have to debate it.

From Watts Up With That?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Bill McAuley, an engineer alumnus of Imperial College, London, mentions the following petition on the UK Parliamentโ€™s website. If the petition gains 100,000 signatures, Parliament will have to debate it. Brits only can sign the petition by following the link below:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/657353

The bureaucrats โ€“ without any justification in law โ€“ are using the forthcoming General Election as a pretext to cut off the petition at midnight on 29 May, so you will need to get your vote registered online at once.

The petition, refers to the World Climate Declaration organized by CLINTEL, supported by some 1600 scientists and researchers, including Nobel Laureates. The organizer says:

โ€œWe believe the Climate Change Act 2008 and related Net Zero targets are both now in effect based on just one side of a two-sided scientific debate, as we do not consider there to be a scientific consensus on the hypothesis of human emissions causing climate change. We consider that one side only of a two-sided scientific debate is not an acceptable basis for significant legislation that could have major impacts on the UKโ€™s economy and citizens. We want the issue of Climate Change to be reconsidered from scratch based on views and evidence from all sides.โ€

The now-collapsed Governmentโ€™s response is as follows โ€“

The Governmentโ€™ โ€œDepartment for Energy and Net Zeroโ€ adds:

โ€œThe Governmentโ€™s policy to support ambitious action on climate change reflects the mainstream scientific consensus and thousands of studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. The IPCC is the authoritative source of information on climate science. The IPCC has established that human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years. This warming of the climate is attributed to the build-up of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to fossil fuel combustion, cement manufacture and deforestation. The evidence for this is set out in chapters 2 and 3 of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Working Group 1 report.

โ€œAs discussed in chapter 4 of the above report, if the CO2 concentration continues to rise unchecked the world could face a global surface temperature rise of about 3ยฐC or more above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. The serious consequences of this for human societies and ecosystems are set out in the IPCC Working Group report on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation.

โ€œThe Prime Minister has reiterated that net zero is a priority for this Government. The UK is the first major economy to halve its emissions โ€“ having cut them by around 53% between 1990 and 2023, while also growing its economy by around 80%. More than ever, we are determined to adopt a fair and pragmatic approach to net zero that minimises the burdens on working people. The measures announced by the Prime Minister on 20 September 2023 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-on-net-zero-20-september-2023) will help avoid imposing significant costs on families.

โ€œThe Government understands the importance of affordable energy bills for households and businesses and is focussed on delivering for energy consumers. We are taking a comprehensive approach to bring down future bills. This includes reforming retail markets to be more effective for consumers through the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) Programme. We are also investing across the energy system and supporting the progress of new technologies to deliver a smarter energy system, and energy efficiency to reduce costs for all consumers.

โ€œThe costs of global inaction to tackle climate change significantly outweigh the costs of action. Indeed, delaying action will only put future generations at risk. The Net Zero โ€œReview by HM Treasury, published alongside the Net Zero Strategy in October 2021, provided an analysis of the costs and benefits of the transition, found here (http://www.gov.uk/government/publications/net-zero-review-final-report). As the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) noted in its July 2021 Fiscal Risks Report (https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-report-july-2021/), โ€œthe costs of failing to get climate change under control would be much larger than those of bringing emissions down to net zeroโ€.

โ€œGovernment policy and spending ambitions will support up to 480,000 green jobs in 2030. We have a clear strategy to boost UK industry and reach net zero by 2050 โ€“ backed by ยฃ300 billion in public and private low carbon investment between 2010 and 2023, with a further ยฃ100 billion of private investment expected by 2030. Since September alone companies have announced plans for ยฃ30bn of new investment across the energy sector, including to advance green technologies and support green industries of the future.

โ€œThe public will play a key role in the net zero transition. A significant proportion of the emission reductions will require the public to make green choices and the UK government will be supporting the consumers all the way. Our priority is making green choices significantly easier, clearer and more affordable, and working with industry to remove barriers.

โ€œThe DESNZ Public Attitudes Tracker shows that people are willing to make green choices. In Summer 2023, a large majority (74%) agreed that they could make changes that would help reduce climate change. When shown a list of behaviours related to reducing climate change, almost all people (98%), said that they did at least one of these in their everyday life. The most recent wave of the DESNZ Public Attitudes Tracker shows that 80% of people in the UK are either fairly concerned or very concerned about climate change and 62% of the public consider climate change and the environment to be one of the most important issues facing the UK (ONS 14-25th February 2024)

โ€œThe Climate Change Act requires that we publish the level of the Carbon Budget 7 twelve years before the period to allow policy makers, businesses, and individuals to prepare. The statutory deadline for setting the Seventh Carbon Budget is June 2026. In recent correspondence with the Environmental Audit Committee, the Secretary of State for DESNZ stated her support for proper democratic consideration of carbon budgets. We have committed to additional Parliamentary scrutiny for Carbon Budget 7, which is in line with this governmentโ€™s commitment to delivering on these targets in a way that brings people with us and ensures democratic debate about the way we get there.โ€

In the General Election on July 4, the third-largest party โ€“ Reform โ€“ is the only one committed to bringing the climate-change nonsense to an end.

Wind Industryโ€™s Tree Wipeout Hits New Low With Plans to Destroy Veteransโ€™ย Memorial

The land area destroyed to house a couple of wind turbines (often in pristine forests) compares unfavourably with the area needed to house a single nuclear power plant.

From STOP THESE THINGS

The land area destroyed to house a couple of wind turbines (often in pristine forests) compares unfavourably with the area needed to house a single nuclear power plant. See above โ€“ the area gouged out of one of Queenslandโ€™s (previously untouched) tropical rainforests to allow space for just two of these things โ€“ huge strips of the area in question will ultimately be bulldozed to make way for hundreds more (see pic below).

Then, thereโ€™s the additional (and entirely unnecessary) environmental destruction to make way for the 60-70m blades, tower sections and giant nacelles weighing over 100 tonnes. Navigating those components along narrow tree-lined roads is impossible; so, in the name of saving the planet, the trees are all axed โ€“ irrespective of their obvious environmental and indeed societal value.

Such is the case with a tree-lined highway in Oberon, New South Wales. The trees themselves were planted over a century ago in honour of those 330,000 Australian soldiers who fought, and the 68,000 who died, during the Great War; at Gallipoli, in France, Belgium and the Middle East.

First, weโ€™ll cross to The Daily Telegraph where the wind industryโ€™s latest outrage is outlined. Then weโ€™ll cross to Sky News, where Peta Credlin and Jonathon Duniam pick up the thread and Nick Cater points out that the whole wind and solar disaster could be avoided if only Australia grew up and went nuclear.

Fears new wind farm near Oberon could result in Anzac Memorial Drive trees being slashed
The Daily Telegraph
Lachlan Leeming
15 May 2024

An Anzac memorial consisting of a 100-year-old crop of trees is at risk from a new wind farm, with furious locals calling on the Minister for veterans to block the move over fears itโ€™ll kill the plants.

The proposal for the Paling Yards wind farm, by the Australian arm of Madrid-based renewable energy giant GPG, features 47 new wind turbines up to 240 metres tall and has caused outrage around the central west town of Oberon.

Current plans for the wind farm, which is yet to receive final approval, would involve the blades and other components being trucked to the site through the tiny village of Oโ€™Connell.

But doing so could require slashing back the trees which make up the war memorial along the Oโ€™Connell Avenue Memorial Drive leading to the town.

A May update put out by GPG concedes that studies found that contact from the giant blades would impact the trees by up to a metre, although โ€œno material damage is caused to the treesโ€.

โ€œGPGA, in consultation with Veteran Affairs, has agreed to certain monitoring and reporting recommendations aimed at the protection of the Avenue of Honour,โ€ the update states, saying a detailed report would be submitted in the future.

The explanation has left local community members and their MP furious over the impact on the memorial.

Bathurst MP and shadow police Minister Paul Toole said the trees are an โ€œicon for the village of Oโ€™Connell and a meaningful memorial for the families of WWI veterans who served from the areaโ€.

โ€œThis just goes to show that these foreign-owned energy moguls will do anything to make their money making renewable factories, even to the extent of destroying war memorials,โ€ he said.

โ€œIt is not in the Anzac nor the Australian spirit to prioritise renewable projects over the conservation of a WWI war memorial.

โ€œThese companies are money hungry enterprises who think they can run over the top of regional communities.โ€

Chris Muldoon, a local businessman and a committee member of Oberon Against Wind Towers, said despite the explanation, they had fears over what it would mean for their community.

He had written to Veterans Minister David Harris saying the trees could die if cut back.

โ€œAny Anzac memorial is sacred, particularly for a small community like Oโ€™Connell who are very protective about it,โ€ he said.
The Daily Telegraph

Hereโ€™s some more โ€˜planet savingโ€™ action in FNQ

Residents โ€˜up in armsโ€™ over wind farm to bulldoze Anzac monument
Sky News
Peta Credlin, Jonathon Duniam, Nick Cater
15 May 2024

Sky News host Peta Credlin says a new wind farm proposed in Oberon is set to bulldoze an Anzac monument as locals are โ€œup in armsโ€ over the concern.

โ€œIt might sound like a little issue, but it is really important,โ€ Ms Credlin said.

โ€œLocals in Oberon are up in arms that an Anzac monument โ€ฆ in honour of fallen diggers will be bulldozed in order to put in a wind farm.โ€

Transcript

Peta Credlin: Jon, it might sound like a little issue, but itโ€™s really important. Locals in Oberon are up in arms that an Anzac monument, which is an avenue of trees that was planted, theyโ€™re 100 years old now, in honour of fallen diggers, will be bulldozed in order to put in a wind farm.

Jonathon Duniam: Now, this is not a little issue at all. Where do we stop? Where do we draw the line with what expense is appropriate to foot when it comes to this pursuit of transition to renewables? In Victoria, we saw Jacinta Allan saying that we will destroy a Ramsar listed wetland, trash the environment to save the planet to build this terminal for an offshore wind farm. And now in Oberon, itโ€™s okay to desecrate a monument to our fallen diggers. People who sacrificed their lives for our freedom and liberties for a wind farm.

Honestly, the world has gone crazy. If weโ€™re going to allow that to happen, there is again, something very wrong that needs to be addressed, and the Premier should actually take some action here.

Peta Credlin: That boondoggle from Malcolm Turnbull, if I can, Nick, Snowy 2.0, promised we were told it would cost $2 billion. Another $7 billion in the budget last night. I think the total is something like $12 billion. You are in Finland. Theyโ€™ve just opened up their latest nuclear reactor last year. Thatโ€™s obviously the way to go.

Nick Cater: Yeah. I was at the Olkiluoto 3 reactor on Monday talking to the people from TVO, which is a Finnish-led consortium. Itโ€™s entirely private sector. Itโ€™s entirely 100% Finnish owned. And I said to them, โ€œWell, how much did this baby cost?โ€ We came online last year, it was late. It took longer to build. 5.6 billion Euro. Thatโ€™s $9.6 billion Australian at the current rate. i.e, considerably cheaper than Snowy Hydro. And for that you get a state-of-the-art, third generation pressurised water reactor, best in Europe, and itโ€™s producing 1.6 gigawatt of power which is like a fair-sized coal-fired power station 24 hours a day. So we are obviously going for second best and Chris Bowenโ€™s continual claim that renewables are cheaper just doesnโ€™t stack up as soon as you get to a country like Finland where theyโ€™re actually doing the sensible thing and pushing ahead with nuclear.
Sky News

The Solar Cycles: A New Physical Model

Dr. Frank Stefani and colleagues from Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden โ€“ Rossendorf and the Institute for Numerical Modelling, University of Latvia, have proposed a new physically consistent model of solar variability. It proposes that the known solar cycles, from the eleven-year Schwabe cycle to the 193-year De Vries cycle are related to planetary orbits and the 19.86-year solar oscillation around the solar system barycenter.

From Watts Up With That?

By Andy May

Dr. Frank Stefani and colleagues from Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden โ€“ Rossendorf and the Institute for Numerical Modelling, University of Latvia, have proposed a new physically consistent model of solar variability. It proposes that the known solar cycles, from the eleven-year Schwabe cycle to the 193-year De Vries cycle are related to planetary orbits and the 19.86-year solar oscillation around the solar system barycenter.

The paper, โ€œRieger, Schwabe, Suess-de Vries: The Sunny Beats of Resonance,โ€ explains the details of the concept. The press release, which is easier to read, explains the implications.

Astronomers and physicists have long been writing about the possible solar tidal effects of the planets, see Scafetta and Bianchiniโ€™s review paper here. The planetary orbits must affect the solar plasma in some fashion and the orbital patterns do correlate to proposed solar and climate cycles. While the statistical correlation was good, the underlying physics of why it all worked remained elusive.

Stefani and his colleagues have created a physically consistent model of the 193-year De Vries solar and climate cycle, the longest solar cycle physically modeled to date. There are longer solar cycles, such as the famous ~2450-year Bray cycle and the ~1,000-year Eddy Cycle, that have been observed but not modeled as precisely yet. This is an important start.

Stefani, F., Horstmann, G.M., Klevs, M. et al. Rieger, Schwabe, Suess-de Vries: The Sunny Beats of Resonance. Sol Phys 299, 51 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-024-02295-x (link)

Night Time Wind Power Fails Across the Entire Continent of Australia

Actually we donโ€™t have to ask that question โ€“ consumers are already learning the hard way what the renewable circus costs, throughย skyrocketing household energy bills.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

First published JoNova; Remember all those assurances that the wind always blows somewhere? Not so much on the night of the 27th.

Another wind drought pulls combined renewables output below last year

The story of Australiaโ€™s green energy transition is mostly one of new peaks in output and share of renewables, but there inevitably ups and downs.

The last few days have seen another so-called wind energy โ€œdroughtโ€ โ€“ the second in as many months. Autumn is โ€œtraditionallyโ€ the season with lowest wind outputs, but the lull this year has pushed the combined output of renewables below its level of last year. 

The graph above from ITK Services principal David Leitch, a contributor to Renew Economy and co-host of Renew Economyโ€™s popular and weekly Energy Insiders podcast, shows that the share of variable renewable energy (VRE, or solar and wind), has fallen below last yearโ€™s levels.

Another data provider, OpenNEM, puts the share of wind over the last three days at just 4.1 per cent, and five per cent for the past seven days, compared to more than 13 per cent for the past year. 

โ€ฆRead more: https://reneweconomy.com.au/another-wind-drought-pulls-combined-renewables-output-below-last-year/

Letโ€™s see, if wind power drops to below 5% normal for 3 days and counting, does this mean weโ€™d need at least 72 hours of battery backup, and counting? Or is the green solution to build 2000% overcapacity?

Large scale wind droughts are not exactly rare. A similar event occurred in 2022;

Blocking high pressure system which covered Australia on 16th June 2022. Very little wind that day. Source Bureau of Meteorology /ย JoNova, Fair Use, Low Resolution Image to Identify the Subject

Longer outages over vast areas can also occur, such as the 2017 season long wind drought which afflicted South Australia.

Obviously we could always keep all the coal and gas infrastructure on rolling standby, ready to jump in every other year when the wind completely fails over the entire continent, but how much would it cost to keep an entire second electricity generation system operational, just in case the renewable system fails?

Actually we donโ€™t have to ask that question โ€“ consumers are already learning the hard way what the renewable circus costs, through skyrocketing household energy bills.

Or maybe weโ€™ll all just have to get used to multi-day power blackouts, like South Africa is currently experiencing.

New Study: Chinaโ€™s Loess Plateau 7-8ยฐC Warmer Than Today For Much Of The Last 4000 Years

Scientists refer to the Middle and Late Holoceneโ€™s much warmer and wetter regional climate as โ€œfavorable,โ€ โ€œoptimalโ€ and โ€œthe best.โ€

From NoTricksZone

Byย Kenneth Richardย 

Scientists refer to the Middle and Late Holoceneโ€™s much warmer and wetter regional climate as โ€œfavorable,โ€ โ€œoptimalโ€ and โ€œthe best.โ€

New research from a Loess Plateau study site identifies mean annual temperatures as 9.86ยฐC today, while annual precipitation averages 531 mm. These values are shown to be among the coldest and driest of the last 5000 years.

In contrast, for the period extending from 2700 years ago to the last few centuries the mean annual temperatures were 17.02ยฐC. This is 7.16ยฐC warmer than present. The mean annual precipitation was 903 mm for this Late Holocene period, which is about 70% higher than todayโ€™s.

From about 4700 to 3900 years ago there were periods when mean annual temperatures varied up to 18.46ยฐC, which is 8.6ยฐC warmer than present.

The authors of this temperature and precipitation reconstruction note that the naturally warmer and wetter Middle and Late Holocene millennia were โ€œthe best,โ€ most โ€œfavorable,โ€ and โ€œoptimalโ€ climate period when compared to the drier and colder climates of recent centuries.

Image Source:ย Guo et al., 2024

It Gets Rainier

The two hemispheres are basically mirror images! When one is wetter, the other is dryer, and vice versa. And as to why that would be, my only guess is that itโ€™s from the very rainy Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) wandering above and below the Equator. Other than that, I fear I have no answer except for the quote below.

From Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Well, since I was on a roll with my last post Rainergy, I thought Iโ€™d look further at the Copernicus global rainfall dataset. I started by looking at the change in global rainfall over time.

Figure 1. Global monthly rainfall, 1979 โ€“ 2022.

Well, thatโ€™s interesting. Overall, despite endless hype about increasing floods, thereโ€™s no significant trend in rainfall. The main feature is the dropoff in rain from the 2016 peak. Being curious about that drop, I thought I might look at the hemispheres separately to see where itโ€™s happening. Hereโ€™s that data:

Figure 2. CEEMD smooths, northern and southern hemisphere monthly rainfall

Zowie, sez I โ€ฆ do you see what I see?

The two hemispheres are basically mirror images! When one is wetter, the other is dryer, and vice versa. And as to why that would be, my only guess is that itโ€™s from the very rainy Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) wandering above and below the Equator. Other than that, I fear I have no answer except for the quote below.

Figure 3. Quote from Richard Feynman, one of the most outstanding physicists of our time

Seeing the inverse relationship between the northern and the southern hemispheres made me wonder how well the models managed to hindcast the rainfall over the same period, and whether the models found the same mirroring of the NH and SH. For example, in the real world the northern hemisphere (blue line in Figure 2 above) is wetter than the southern (red line) โ€ฆ do the models find this difference?

So I went to the marvelous KNMI website and got the CMIP6 model average data. And when I graphed it up, my eyebrows went up to my hairline and I busted out laughing โ€ฆ

Figure 4. CEEMD smooths of modeled hemispheric rainfall, CMIP6 model average. This model average is created by first averaging all of the model runs of each model, and then averaging the model averages. This is to prevent overweighting the models with lots of runs.

I am totally gobsmacked. I donโ€™t know what I expected, but it sure wasnโ€™t this โ€ฆ in total contradiction to the real-world observations, in modelworld the southern hemisphere is wetter than the north, the northern hemisphere is getting much wetter over time, total annual rainfall is about 75mm (3 inches) or about 8% too large, and thereโ€™s no mirroring โ€ฆ

But wait, as they say on TV, thereโ€™s more! Hereโ€™s the CMIP6 SSP245 model average global rainfall from 1850 to 2100. It is hindcasting using real data up to 2014, and forecasting after that.

Figure 5. Modeled global rainfall, CMIP6 model average, SSP245 scenario. The graphs are taken directly from theย KNMI website. Upper panel is full data, lower panel shows residual after removing seasonal variations. This CMIP6 model average is created by first averaging all of the model runs of each model, and then averaging the model averages. This is to prevent overweighting the models with lots of runs.

Seriously? Does that look real to anyone?

And thereโ€™s another oddity. Recall from my post Rainergy that evaporating water to create rainfall cools the surface. The modeled rainfall shown above claims that by 2100, the rainfall will have increased from the 20th Century average by ~60 mm. The evaporation necessary to produce this increased rainfall would cool the surface by an additional 4.8 W/m2 โ€ฆ which per IPCC calculations would offset the theoretical increase in forcing resulting from CO2 increasing from 400 ppmv to 980 ppmv.

Right โ€ฆ thatโ€™s totally believable โ€ฆ

These are the Tinkertoyโ„ข models that our noble climate cognoscenti are using to predict the climate in the year 2100? Weโ€™re abandoning the worldโ€™s reliable energy sources based on these ludicrous models??? โ€ฆ

Madness. Tragic madness.

I fear thatโ€™s all for today. Although Iโ€™m sure that thereโ€™s more to be learned from the Copernicus rainfall data, at this moment Iโ€™m laughing and crying too hard to do any more mathematical analysis.

My best to all,

w.

Yeah, yeah, you heard it before, but I gotta say it again: When you comment, please quote the exact words you are discussing. I can defend my words. I cannot defend your interpretation of my words.

And if you wish to show that Iโ€™m wrong, here are complete instructions on how to show Willis is wrong.

EVs should only be for consenting adults

In a 2016 interview with photographer Steven Edson, CNN asked, โ€œWhat makes a car sexy?โ€

From CFACT

By Duggan Flanakin

In a 2016 interview with photographer Steven Edson, CNN asked, โ€œWhat makes a car sexy?โ€

Edson replied, โ€œItโ€™s because a lot of the parts of those cars are, in fact, sexy.โ€ He cited the taillights on the 1959 Cadillac Series 62, which he described as โ€œlike rare ruby earrings.โ€

Most of todayโ€™s cars, however, Edson lamented, are โ€œhomogenousโ€ and offer little of interest to the photographer.

Enter Elon Musk. In 2019, the Tesla Model Y completed the companyโ€™s long-awaited โ€œS3XYโ€ family of models โ€“ the S3Xyest cars on the road today. Thatโ€™s one major reason they sold well. Even so, Carscoops admitted that whether Teslaโ€™s S3XY family was sexy remained up for debate.

Maybe the sex appeal of the electric vehicle is wearing off. Tesla is slashing prices, Ford cut back production of its electric pickup and cut the price of its Mustang Mach-E, and General Motors is looking at bringing back plug-in hybrids. Even the EPA is toying with extending the timetable for the total phaseout of non-electric vehicles.

CNN has scrambled to explain why, or rather, โ€œHow EVs became such a massive disappointment,โ€ even as they assured their fragile readership that โ€œthe American market for EVs is not collapsing.โ€

They tell us that industry experts blame vehicle prices, lack of charging capacity, and confusing tax credit rules as the reasons for the 15 percent gap between Bloombergโ€™s 2023 projected sales and actual sales.

But thatโ€™s not the whole story.

Chinese automakers have major advantages in manufacturing electric vehicles, thanks to that nationโ€™s virtual monopoly on many components of EV batteries. In 2023 alone, Chinese motorists bought 8.4 million electric vehicles, 59 percent of global EV sales.

The Chinese are also busy marketing their cheaper EVs to Europe and other nations. Jo Nova reports that China shipped 1.3 million EVs to European Union nations in the last quarter โ€“ yet many remain unsold and sitting idle in car lots even though EU nations are offering huge subsidies. EV sales fell by 11 percent across the EU by 29 percent in Germany alone.

Bad as the market has been for battery-electric passenger vehicles, the market for electric vans is even worse. The British governmentโ€™s ZEV mandate demanded that 10 percent of van sales in 2023 be EVs, but actual sales accounted for less than 5 percent of the market.

Association of Fleet Professionals chair Paul Hollick explained that โ€œsome fleets just donโ€™t have a role for these electric vans within their business. Their payload and range requirements mean there is no operational profile for which the electric van can be practically used, or there is no suitable charging infrastructure.โ€

Even Elon Musk is having trouble selling the once-SeXY Teslas โ€“ enough that he just laid off 6,000 employees. Tesla produced nearly 47,000 vehicles than it delivered to customers in the first quarter of 2024. And Hertz is not only not buying more Teslas but selling the ones it has.

Biden Administration EV mandates are causing auto dealers problems, as most buyers still want a gasoline- or diesel-powered vehicle. So few, by comparison, want an EV that dealers (and manufacturers) are falling short of their mandated target ratios. How long before dealers have to institute lotteries or some other scheme to determine just who is allowed to buy a new car?

And thatโ€™s not all.

British journalists have found another shocking โ€“ and odd โ€“ fact about EVs. Researchers found that drivers of electric vehicles were twice as likely to be involved in a road accident with a pedestrian than drivers of petrol or diesel vehicles over the same number of miles driven. The report suggested that the vehicleโ€™s quiet engines were a significant factor in higher fatality rates.

On top of that, quiet engines are just not sexy.

Then there is the story that a battery fire at a lithium-ion battery storage facility in Otay Mesa, California, had continued for six days despite 40 firefighters working to bring it under control. Firefighters noted that overheated lithium-ion batteries can trigger โ€œthermal runaway,โ€ a chain reaction that spreads from one battery to another.

While these batteries were stacked in a storage facility, the fire brings to mind the July 2023 cargo ship fire in the North Sea that destroyed hundreds of vehicles. Even though only 25 were electric vehicles, the fire reportedly started when one of their batteries caught fire.

Electric vehicle battery fires are just not sexy.

Neither are several of the other flaws in these โ€œperfect zero-emission vehicles.โ€

Then we learned that the so-called โ€œall-electric fire truck,โ€ like the one Bernalillo County, New Mexico, bought for $1.8 million (thanks in part to a state grant), relies on a diesel engine to pump water to put out fires and even run the truck when the huge battery dies. An all-electric fire truck cannot run for the long periods needed to extinguish some fires (including EV fires).

But perhaps the most important reason for eschewing electric vehicles is the growing threat of widespread power outages as the electric grid is stressed by the power demands of artificial intelligence, Big Tech โ€“ and EVs. Californians have recently experienced days without power, and Michael Spence notes that โ€œIf power systems fail, itโ€™s lights out for the entire economy.โ€

One final note. Clean Technica actually boasted that U.S. plug-in EVs consumed more electricity than the entire nation of Uganda in 2023. The Energy Information Administration reported that it took about 7,600 gigawatt-hours of electricity to keep U.S. EVs running in 2023 โ€“ almost five times the consumption in 2018. Imagine the drain on the electric grid with even more EVs.

And the arrogant West still demands that even Ugandans buy only EVs by 2030?

Is it really sexy to force developing nations (let alone the rest of us) into committing more electricity to electric vehicles than their grid can generate?

This article originally appeared at Town Hall

Heat pumps โ€˜too expensive for ordinaryย familiesโ€™

Heat pumps are too expensive for ordinary families to install and run, the Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho has been warned by MPs.

Illustration 3d

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Patsy Lacey

Heat pumps are too expensive for ordinary families to install and run, the Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho has been warned by MPs.

The Government must urgently make low-carbon heating systems cheaper if it wants to reach its goal of net zero emissions by 2050, according to a report by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC).

Almost all of the UKโ€™s 28 million households must ditch their gas boilers and decarbonise their heating systems for ministers to achieve their goal of net zero emissions.

Nearly a fifth (18pc) of all UK greenhouse gas emissions come from heating the nationโ€™s homes, the vast bulk of it from burning natural gas.

The Government wants to phase out gas boilers by 2035 and the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) has a target for Britain to be installing 600,000 heat pumps per year by 2028, up from just 55,000 in 2021.

But high costs for households mean uptake has so far been slow and the Government is not on track to meet this target.

The PAC report said: โ€œThe cost of buying and running heat pumps is a substantial barrier to take-up for most households, at a time when incomes are already stretched.โ€

An average heat pump costs ยฃ11,600, four times more than a gas boiler.

The Government aims to reduce heat pump installation costs by 25pc by 2025, but so far they have only fallen by 6pc since 2021.

The PAC report said: โ€œCosts need to come down much quicker.โ€

Heat pumps are also more expensive to run than traditional boilers because they use electricity, which costs more than gas, the report said.

The costs are so high that government grants are likely only being used by rich people.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/26/heat-pumps-too-expensive-ordinary-families

What is most significant in this latest report is that MPs are now admitting that running costs for heat pumps are also higher then a gas boiler, something I have been pointing out for years.

Good and Bad Climate Models Simplyย Put

Thanks to John Shewchuk of ClimateCraze for explaining simply how climate models are evaluated and why most are untrustworthy in the above video. He also explains why worst performing model was prized rather than the one closest to the truth.ย  Below is a synopsis of a discussion by Patrick Michaels on the same point.

From Science Matters

Byย Ron Clutz

Thanks to John Shewchuk of ClimateCraze for explaining simply how climate models are evaluated and why most are untrustworthy in the above video. He also explains why worst performing model was prized rather than the one closest to the truth.ย  Below is a synopsis of a discussion by Patrick Michaels on the same point.

Background:  Nobel Prize for Worst Climate Model

Patrick J. Michaels reports at Real Clear Policy Nobel Prize Awarded for the Worst Climate Model. Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Given the persistent headlines about climate change over the years, itโ€™s surprising how long it took the Nobel Committee to award the Physics prize to a climate modeler, which finally occurred earlier this month.

Indeed, Syukuro Manabe has been a pioneer in the development of so-called general circulation climate models (GCMs) and more comprehensive Earth System Models (ESMs). According to the Committee, Manabe was awarded the prize โ€œFor the physical modelling of the earthโ€™s climate, quantifying variability, and reliably predicting global warming.โ€

What Manabe did was to modify early global weather forecasting models, adapting them to long-term increases in human emissions of carbon dioxide that alter the atmosphereโ€™s internal energy balance, resulting in a general warming of surface temperatures, along with a much larger warming of temperatures above the surface over the earthโ€™s vast tropics.

Unlike some climate modelers, like NASAโ€™s James Hansen โ€” who lit the bonfire of the greenhouse vanities in 1988, Manabe is hardly a publicity hound. And while politics clearly influences it (see Al Goreโ€™s 2007 Prize), the Nobel Committee also respects primacy, as Manabeโ€™s model was the first comprehensive GCM. He produced it at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationโ€™s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton NJ. The seminal papers were published in 1975 and 1980.

And, after many modifications and renditions, it is also the most incorrect of all the worldโ€™s GCMs at altitude over the vast tropics of the planet.

Getting the tropical temperatures right is critical. The vast majority of life-giving moisture that falls over the worlds productive midlatitude agrosystems originates as evaporation from the tropical oceans.

The major determinant of how much moisture is wafted into our region is the vertical distribution of tropical temperature. When the contrast is great, with cold temperatures aloft compared to the normally hot surface, that surface air is buoyant and ascends, ultimately transferring moisture to the temperate zones. When the contrast is less, the opposite occurs, and less moisture enters the atmosphere.

Every GCM or ESM predicts that several miles above the tropical surface should be a โ€œhot spot,โ€ where there is much more warming caused by carbon dioxide emissions than at the surface. If this is improperly forecast, then subsequent forecasts of rainfall over the worldโ€™s major agricultural regions will be unreliable.

That in turn will affect forecasts of surface temperature. Everyone knows a wet surface heats up (and cools down) slower than a dry one (see: deserts), so getting the moisture input right is critical.

Following Manabe, vast numbers of modelling centers popped up, mushrooms fertilized by public โ€” and only public โ€” money.

Every six years or so, the U.S. Department of Energy collects all of these models, aggregating them into what they call Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs). These serve as the bases for the various โ€œscientific assessmentsโ€ of climate change produced by the U.N.โ€™s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) or the U.S. โ€œNational Assessmentsโ€ of climate.

Figure 8: Warming in the tropical troposphere according to the CMIP6 models. Trends 1979โ€“2014 (except the rightmost model, which is to 2007), for 20ยฐNโ€“20ยฐS, 300โ€“200 hPa. John Christy (2019)

In 2017, University of Alabamaโ€™s John Christy, along with Richard McNider, published a paper that, among other things, examined the 25 applicable families of CMIP-5 models, comparing their performance to whatโ€™s been observed in the three-dimensional global tropics. Take a close look at Figure 3 from the paper, in the Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, and youโ€™ll see that the model GFDL-CM3 is so bad that it is literally off the scale of the graph. [See Climate Models: Good, Bad and Ugly]

At its worst, the GFDL model is predicting approximately five times as much warming as has been observed since the upper-atmospheric data became comprehensive in 1979. This is the most evolved version of the model that won Manabe the Nobel.

In the CMIP-5 model suite, there is one, and only one, that works. It is the model INM-CM4 from the Russian Institute for Numerical Modelling, and the lead author is Evgeny Volodin. It seems that Volodin would be much more deserving of the Nobel for, in the words of the committee โ€œreliably predicting global warming.โ€

Might this have something to do with the fact that INM-CM4 and its successor models have less predicted warming than all of the other models?

Patrick J. Michaels is a senior fellow working on energy and environment issues at the Competitive Enterprise Institute and author of โ€œScientocracy: The Tangled Web of Public Science and Public Policy.โ€