Day: May 26, 2024

UAH April 2024: NH Pushes Global Warming by Land and Sea

The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean. Each month and year exposes again the growing disconnect between the real world and the Zero Carbon zealots. It is as though the anti-hydrocarbon band wagon hopes to drown out the data contradicting their justification for the Great Energy Transition.

From Science Matters

By Ron Clutz

The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean. Each month and year exposes again the growing disconnect between the real world and the Zero Carbon zealots.  It is as though the anti-hydrocarbon band wagon hopes to drown out the data contradicting their justification for the Great Energy Transition.  Yes, there has been warming from an El Nino buildup coincidental with North Atlantic warming, but no basis to blame it on CO2.  

As an overview consider how recent rapid cooling  completely overcame the warming from the last 3 El Ninos (1998, 2010 and 2016).  The UAH record shows that the effects of the last one were gone as of April 2021, again in November 2021, and in February and June 2022  At year end 2022 and continuing into 2023 global temp anomaly matched or went lower than average since 1995, an ENSO neutral year. (UAH baseline is now 1991-2020). Now we have an usual El Nino warming spike of uncertain cause, but unrelated to steadily rising CO2.

For reference I added an overlay of CO2 annual concentrations as measured at Mauna Loa.  While temperatures fluctuated up and down ending flat, CO2 went up steadily by ~60 ppm, a 15% increase.

Furthermore, going back to previous warmings prior to the satellite record shows that the entire rise of 0.8C since 1947 is due to oceanic, not human activity.

gmt-warming-events

The animation is an update of a previous analysis from Dr. Murry Salby.  These graphs use Hadcrut4 and include the 2016 El Nino warming event.  The exhibit shows since 1947 GMT warmed by 0.8 C, from 13.9 to 14.7, as estimated by Hadcrut4.  This resulted from three natural warming events involving ocean cycles. The most recent rise 2013-16 lifted temperatures by 0.2C.  Previously the 1997-98 El Nino produced a plateau increase of 0.4C.  Before that, a rise from 1977-81 added 0.2C to start the warming since 1947.

Importantly, the theory of human-caused global warming asserts that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere changes the baseline and causes systemic warming in our climate.  On the contrary, all of the warming since 1947 was episodic, coming from three brief events associated with oceanic cycles. And now in 2024 we are seeing an amazing episode with a temperature spike driven by ocean air warming in all regions, along with rising NH land temperatures.

Update August 3, 2021

Chris Schoeneveld has produced a similar graph to the animation above, with a temperature series combining HadCRUT4 and UAH6. H/T WUWT

See Also Worst Threat: Greenhouse Gas or Quiet Sun?

April 2024 El Nino Recedes While Oceans and NH Land Warms

With apologies to Paul Revere, this post is on the lookout for cooler weather with an eye on both the Land and the Sea.  While you heard a lot about 2020-21 temperatures matching 2016 as the highest ever, that spin ignores how fast the cooling set in.  The UAH data analyzed below shows that warming from the last El Nino had fully dissipated with chilly temperatures in all regions. After a warming blip in 2022, land and ocean temps dropped again with 2023 starting below the mean since 1995.  Spring and Summer 2023 saw a series of warmings, continuing into October, but with cooling since. 

UAH has updated their tlt (temperatures in lower troposphere) dataset for April 2024. Posts on their reading of ocean air temps this month comes after the April update from HadSST4.  I posted this week on SSTs using HadSST4 Nino Recedes, NH Keeps Ocean Warm April 2024. This month also has a separate graph of land air temps because the comparisons and contrasts are interesting as we contemplate possible cooling in coming months and years.

Sometimes air temps over land diverge from ocean air changes. Last February 2024, both ocean and land air temps went higher driven by SH, while NH and the Tropics cooled slightly, resulting in Global anomaly matching October 2023 peak. Then in March Ocean anomalies cooled while Land anomalies rose everywhere. Now in April, Ocean anomalies rose NH and SH, while Tropics moderated.  Meanwhile NH land spiked up and Global land warmed, despite SH spiking down

Note:  UAH has shifted their baseline from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 beginning with January 2021.  In the charts below, the trends and fluctuations remain the same but the anomaly values changed with the baseline reference shift.

Presently sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.  Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy.  Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements.  In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates.  Eventually we will likely have reliable means of recording water temperatures at depth.

Recently, Dr. Ole Humlum reported from his research that air temperatures lag 2-3 months behind changes in SST.  Thus cooling oceans portend cooling land air temperatures to follow.  He also observed that changes in CO2 atmospheric concentrations lag behind SST by 11-12 months.  This latter point is addressed in a previous post Who to Blame for Rising CO2?

After a change in priorities, updates are now exclusive to HadSST4.  For comparison we can also look at lower troposphere temperatures (TLT) from UAHv6 which are now posted for April.  The temperature record is derived from microwave sounding units (MSU) on board satellites like the one pictured above. Recently there was a change in UAH processing of satellite drift corrections, including dropping one platform which can no longer be corrected. The graphs below are taken from the revised and current dataset.

The UAH dataset includes temperature results for air above the oceans, and thus should be most comparable to the SSTs. There is the additional feature that ocean air temps avoid Urban Heat Islands (UHI).  The graph below shows monthly anomalies for ocean air temps since January 2015.

Note 2020 was warmed mainly by a spike in February in all regions, and secondarily by an October spike in NH alone. In 2021, SH and the Tropics both pulled the Global anomaly down to a new low in April. Then SH and Tropics upward spikes, along with NH warming brought Global temps to a peak in October.  That warmth was gone as November 2021 ocean temps plummeted everywhere. After an upward bump 01/2022 temps reversed and plunged downward in June.  After an upward spike in July, ocean air everywhere cooled in August and also in September.   

After sharp cooling everywhere in January 2023, all regions were into negative territory. Note the Tropics matched the lowest value, but since have spiked sharply upward +1.7C, with the largest increases in April to July, and continuing through adding to a new high of 1.3C January to March 2024. In April that dropped to 1.2C.  NH also spiked upward to a new high, while Global ocean rise was more modest due to slight SH cooling. In February, NH and Tropics cooled slightly, while greater warming in SH resulted in a small Global rise. Now in April NH is back up to match its peak of 1.08C and SH also rose to its new peak of 0.89C, pulling up the Global anomaly, also to a new high of 0.97 despite a drop in the  Tropics.

Land Air Temperatures Tracking in Seesaw Pattern

We sometimes overlook that in climate temperature records, while the oceans are measured directly with SSTs, land temps are measured only indirectly.  The land temperature records at surface stations sample air temps at 2 meters above ground.  UAH gives tlt anomalies for air over land separately from ocean air temps.  The graph updated for April is below.

Here we have fresh evidence of the greater volatility of the Land temperatures, along with extraordinary departures by SH land.  Land temps are dominated by NH with a 2021 spike in January,  then dropping before rising in the summer to peak in October 2021. As with the ocean air temps, all that was erased in November with a sharp cooling everywhere.  After a summer 2022 NH spike, land temps dropped everywhere, and in January, further cooling in SH and Tropics offset by an uptick in NH. 

Remarkably, in 2023, SH land air anomaly shot up 2.1C, from  -0.6C in January to +1.5 in September, then dropped sharply to 0.6 in January 2024, matching the SH peak in 2016. Then in February and March SH anomaly jumped up nearly 0.7C, and Tropics went up to a new high of 1.5C, pulling up the Global land anomaly to match 10/2023. Now in April SH dropped sharply back to 0.6C, Tropics cooled very slightly, but NH land jumped up to a new high of 1.5C, pulling up Global land anomaly to its new high of 1.24C.

The Bigger Picture UAH Global Since 1980

The chart shows monthly Global anomalies starting 01/1980 to present.  The average monthly anomaly is -0.04, for this period of more than four decades.  The graph shows the 1998 El Nino after which the mean resumed, and again after the smaller 2010 event. The 2016 El Nino matched 1998 peak and in addition NH after effects lasted longer, followed by the NH warming 2019-20.   An upward bump in 2021 was reversed with temps having returned close to the mean as of 2/2022.  March and April brought warmer Global temps, later reversed

With the sharp drops in Nov., Dec. and January 2023 temps, there was no increase over 1980. Then in 2023 the buildup to the October/November peak exceeded the sharp April peak of the El Nino 1998 event. It also surpassed the February peak in 2016.  December and January were down slightly, but now March and April have taken the Global anomaly to a new peak of 1.05C. Where it goes from here, up further or dropping down, remains to be seen, though there is evidence that El Nino is weakening.

The graph reminds of another chart showing the abrupt ejection of humid air from Hunga Tonga eruption.

TLTs include mixing above the oceans and probably some influence from nearby more volatile land temps.  Clearly NH and Global land temps have been dropping in a seesaw pattern, nearly 1C lower than the 2016 peak.  Since the ocean has 1000 times the heat capacity as the atmosphere, that cooling is a significant driving force.  TLT measures started the recent cooling later than SSTs from HadSST4, but are now showing the same pattern. Despite the three El Ninos, their warming has not persisted prior to 2023, and without them it would probably have cooled since 1995.  Of course, the future has not yet been written.

The White House can’t keep ignoring concerns on environmental policy

Frustrated by the refusal of the White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) to respond to a six-week-old request to supply documents relating to taxpayer-funding of a Biden administration plan to vastly expand federal control over America’s lands and waters, two House committee chairmen are demanding a full accounting of the “America the Beautiful Challenge.”

From CFACT

By Bonner Cohen, Ph. D.

Frustrated by the refusal of the White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) to respond to a six-week-old request to supply documents relating to taxpayer-funding of a Biden administration plan to vastly expand federal control over America’s lands and waters, two House committee chairmen are demanding a full accounting of the “America the Beautiful Challenge.”

In a May 7 letter to CEQ Chair Brenda Mallory, House Natural Resources Chairman Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) and Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Chairman Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) pointed out that CEQ “has failed to comply and provide a substantive reply … to the Committee’s requests.”

At issue is how the White House is using taxpayer money to fund its “30 x 30 Plan,” a scheme to “protect” (meaning control) “at least” 30 percent of the nation’s land and waters by 2030. Unveiled in January 2021 and since relabeled the “America the Beautiful Challenge,” or simply “Challenge,” the initiative has largely flown under the radar screen amid wars in Europe and the Middle East, the crisis at the Southern border, and the rising cost of food and energy.

But the prospect of locking up the nation’s natural resources at a time of mounting global tensions and persistent domestic inflation, coupled with the White House’s refusal to cooperate with the committee’s requests, spurred Westerman and Gosar to turn up the heat.

The two committee chairmen set a May 14 deadline for CEQ to turn over “All documents and communications, including but not limited to documents, memoranda of understanding, emails, and internal communications of which CEQ is aware between any agencies and the NFWF [National Fish and Wildlife Foundation] referring or relating to the establishment and operation of the Challenge from January 20, 2021, to the present.”

CEQ was also instructed to disgorge all relevant documents relating or referring to the reallocation of discretionary money to the Challenge and to provide documents describing the source of funding for the initiative, as well as the amount contributed to the program by each federal agency. Tellingly, the two lawmakers, whose committees have oversight over CEQ, included in their request, “The legal authorities provided in statute to utilize the funds in support of the Challenge.”

Westerman and Gosar further expressed their concern that outside groups friendly to the administration could receive funding from the program, including those currently suing the federal government, under active investigation by Congress, accepting funds from hostile foreign nations, or guilty of human-rights violations.

And because the 30 x 30 plan ultimately involves increasing the amount of land under government control, the lawmakers want CEQ to reveal whether money can be used “to fund projects that acquire new land.”

Lest Biden officials at CEQ think they can continue to ignore requests from Congress, the committee chairmen pointed out in their letter that the U.S. Supreme Court in Barenblatt v. United States (1939) ruled that Congress has a duty “to look diligently into every affair of government” and “use every means of acquainting itself with the acts and the disposition of the administrative agents of the government.”

“Your silence and lack of a response to the Committee Letter suggest that CEQ is deliberately engaging in obstruction to frustrate the oversight power of Congress,” Westerman and Gosar wrote.

CEQ may have good reason to drag its feet. The Challenge is the child of a Biden executive order, not legislation passed by Congress. Because money, including taxpayer money, is fungible, skilled political operatives, wise in the ways of the administrative state, are adept at moving funds around to further their political objectives. These elaborate shell games with public funds are meant to deceive. Having congressional committees with jurisdiction poking their noses into the important business of saving the planet is an annoyance the White House thinks it can ignore.

Along with stiffing Congress on the funding of 30 x 30, the Biden administration is taking other steps to ensure that the fruits of the nation’s abundant natural resources stay largely beyond the reach of families and businesses that need them the most. In April, the Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management (BLM) issued a new rule overturning eight decades of – statutorily mandated – “multiple use” of BLM lands.

In a seismic shift in BLM policy, the agency will no longer prioritize oil and gas drilling, hard-rock mining, cattle grazing, and recreation on the 245 million acres (10 percent of the U.S. land mass) it manages. Instead, the agency will look more favorably on restoring public lands by auctioning off “restoration leases” and “mitigation leases” to entities, such as environmental groups, who will ensure that the resources are permanently off-limits.  It will also prioritize intermittent renewable energy (wind turbines and solar panels) over fossil-fuel production.

Both the Biden 30 x 30 plan and the new BLM rule will face court challenges.  The outcome of that litigation will bear directly on America’s place in the world and the livelihoods of ordinary working Americans.

This article originally appeared at Human Events

Biden Climate Rules Onslaught: Coming to a Household Near You – The Climate Realism Show #111

On episode 111 of The Climate Realism Show, we are going to review many of the eco policies that amount to Biden’s war on homeowners and the citizenry for the sake of “saving the planet” from climate change.

The Heartland Institute

On episode 111 of The Climate Realism Show, we are going to review many of the eco policies that amount to Biden’s war on homeowners and the citizenry for the sake of “saving the planet” from climate change.

We’ll be discussing the Biden power plant rule, auto emissions rule, new ESA restrictions in Texas for a lizard, appliance rules, and more. The rules restricting gas stove and light bulbs and others supposedly to prevent so-called climate catastrophes affect our everyday choices and lives.

Joining us will be Marlo Lewis, Jr. who is a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. Lewis writes on global warming, energy policy, and public policy issues and will comment of the onslaught by Biden which appears geared to meet the 180 day deadline for such things before the November election.

Join host Anthony Watts, the Heartland Institute’s H. Sterling Burnett, and Marlo Lewis for the big list of FAIL. And, as always, we have the Crazy Climate News of the Week. Join us LIVE at 1 p.m. ET (12 p.m. CT) for the kind of climate realism you can’t find anywhere else, and join the chat to get your questions answered, too.

Follow us on Instagram: @HeartlandInstitute

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Gravity Strikes Again: GE’s Mega-Turbine Collapse Kills Offshore Wind Industry

When your industry depends on mega-myths and hyped-up hubris, get ready for Armageddon-scale disappointment. GE’s rent-seeking wind power harm, Vernova pumped up its planned 18MW Haliade X offshore turbine with the kind of fanfare once reserved for NASA’s efforts to land men on the Moon.

From STOP THESE THINGS

When your industry depends on mega-myths and hyped-up hubris, get ready for Armageddon-scale disappointment. GE’s rent-seeking wind power harm, Vernova pumped up its planned 18MW Haliade X offshore turbine with the kind of fanfare once reserved for NASA’s efforts to land men on the Moon.

These things have a predilection for plummeting to earth with seismic results. STT regularly reports on the phenomenon, noting a very significant increase in the number of collapses in the last 18 months – and that, accordingly, insurers are cranking up the premiums they charge their owners.

At a time when America’s offshore wind industry is in complete financial freefall, the last thing it needs is a super-expensive mega-turbine that can’t stand on its own pile-driven feet. With GE ditching plans to build its 18MW monster, rent-seekers are using the ‘loss’ of the promised giant as yet another excuse to explain away their financial woes, as this lament from EE News outlines below.

How the death of a mega-turbine rattled US offshore wind
EE News
Benjamin Storrow and Heather Richards
22 April 2024

The wind industry’s global race to make ever-bigger turbines stumbled to a sudden slowdown last week, jarring U.S. offshore wind projects, says E&E News.

When GE Vernova confirmed that it was canceling one of the largest wind turbines ever designed, it signaled a pause in an arms race that for years had led manufacturers to go higher, longer and wider when building towers, blades and other components. Now, that decision is reverberating across U.S. efforts to build wind projects in the Atlantic.

New York canceled power contracts for three offshore wind projects last week, citing GE Vernova’s decision to abandon its largest turbine model, a massive 18-megawatt machine. The timing could hardly be worse. Offshore wind is the keystone of New York’s plan to generate 70 percent of its power with renewable energy by the end of the decade.

The timing could hardly be worse. Offshore wind is the keystone of New York’s plan to generate 70 percent of its power with renewable energy by the end of the decade.

The canceled projects pushed New York further adrift of meeting its goal. Today, a little more than a quarter of New York’s power comes from renewable sources, the vast majority of it hydropower.

Offshore wind was supposed to help the state reach 70 percent, with New York officials targeting 9,000 megawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2035. Last week’s decision nixed almost half of it.

“It’s obviously a setback. I mean, there’s no way to sugarcoat it,” said Fred Zalcman, director of the New York Offshore Wind Alliance. “It was to be a big part of New York’s portfolio — and kind of the linchpin — in getting to nine gigawatts by 2035.”

The cancellations owe to a variety of factors. The offshore wind market is still adjusting to the effects of inflation and higher interest rates.

It also reflects New York’s push to link offshore wind projects with manufacturing facilities onshore. And it came just as GE Vernova emerged as a stand-alone company from General Electric, with a struggling offshore wind division that reported a $1.1 billion loss last year.

But many analysts and industry officials cited the push for ever-bigger turbines as the leading issue for the projects’ failure. GE announced last year that it intended to develop a supersize 18-MW version of its Haliade X turbine, in what would have been one of the largest pieces of wind equipment ever built outside of China.

GE was a leader in the industry trend to build larger and larger turbines. In theory, a bigger turbine could help developers deliver more power at lower costs. It means they could install fewer foundations or string less cable to bring power ashore.

But the reality is more complex. More port space is needed to assemble gargantuan turbines and larger boats with stronger cranes are required to haul and lift them. There’s also this: Bigger machines tend to break more, according to analysts.

A growing number of people in the industry had called for a halt in turbine race in hopes of allowing supply chains to catch up and enabling manufacturers to standardize their processes.
EE News

Red States Ask Supreme Court To Stop Blue States From Forcing Climate Agenda On Rest Of Country

Nineteen Republican state attorneys general hit five Democrat-controlled states with a legal challenge alleging that the blue states are illegally attempting to impose aggressive climate policies on the rest of the country.

From The Daily Caller

By NICK POPE

CONTRIBUTOR

Nineteen Republican state attorneys general hit five Democrat-controlled states with a legal challenge alleging that the blue states are illegally attempting to impose aggressive climate policies on the rest of the country.

The coalition of red states filed the challenge with the Supreme Court on Wednesday, alleging that the five blue states — California, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey and Minnesota — are trying to advance an anti-fossil fuel agenda for the entire country via tools like climate nuisance lawsuits against oil companies. The coalition of red states requested that the Supreme Court step in to determine whether these Democrat-controlled states can effectively interfere in other states’ energy policy.

“Plaintiff States and their citizens rely on traditional energy products every day,” the complaint says. “The assertion that Defendant States can regulate, tax, and enjoin the promotion, production, and use of such products beyond their borders—but outside the purview of federal law—threatens profound injury.” (RELATED: ‘Grave Threat’: Calls Mount For SCOTUS To Intervene In Key Climate Lawsuit Against Major Energy Companies)

The coalition of plaintiffs asked the Supreme Court to examine the complaint in the context of the Commerce Clause, which gives the federal government the ability to address matters of interstate commerce that are beyond the jurisdiction of one state or another. The states that filed the complaint include Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

“In essence, Defendant States want a global carbon tax on the traditional energy industry,” the complaint states. “Citing fears of a climate catastrophe, they seek massive penalties, disgorgement, and injunctive relief against energy producers based on out-of-state conduct with out-of-state effects.”

The complaint references climate nuisance lawsuits that have been pursued by Minnesota and the other defendant states as evidence that the five blue states are trying to alter the national energy landscape by seeking to extract large settlements from traditional energy companies. In many instances, the third-party law firms that are helping prosecutors bring these tort cases stand to reap large paydays if the energy companies being sued decide to settle.

“Defendant States assert the power to dictate the future of the American energy industry,” states the complaint. “They hope to do so not by influencing federal legislation or by petitioning federal agencies, but by imposing ruinous liability and coercive remedies on energy companies through state tort actions governed by state law in state court.”

Democratic New Jersey Attorney General Matthew Platkin expressed confidence that the Supreme Court will not side against him and described the red states’ complaint as politically-motivated.

“We are proud to stand up for New Jersey residents and consumers in combating the deception the largest oil and gas companies engaged in for decades. It’s a shame that other states are trying to hamstring our efforts to protect New Jerseyans under New Jersey law,” Platkin said in a statement shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation. “But we are confident the Supreme Court will see this for the desperate stunt that it is, and deny their motion. In any event, our important work continues.”

Democratic Connecticut Attorney General Chris Tong issued a statement on Wednesday deriding the complaint filed against his state.

“This must be a fake lawsuit filed in the Land of Make Believe. I live and work in the real world, where I am focused on actual threats — like the climate crisis — to the health and safety of the people of Connecticut,” Tong said. “This is pure partisan political theater, and it will not distract or deter us from fighting for Connecticut consumers, families and our environment.”

The offices of Democratic Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, Democratic Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Neronha and Democratic California Attorney General Rob Bonta did not respond immediately to requests for comment.

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

Net Zero Cargo Ships? International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea Demands Climate Action

Yet another freedom sapping international treaty committee of unelected apparatchiks.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Yet another freedom sapping international treaty committee of unelected apparatchiks.

A new ruling says countries – including NZ – must take action on climate change under the law of the sea

Published: May 24, 2024 6.13am AEST
Karen Scott
Professor in Law, University of Canterbury

In a significant development for small island nations threatened by rising seas, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) has found greenhouse gases constitute marine pollution.

The tribunal handed down a unanimous advisory opinion this week in its first climate-related judgement. It declared countries must take measures to combat climate change in order to preserve the marine environment under the law of the sea.

…

Some institutions associated with UNCLOS, such as the International Maritime Organization, have taken steps to address climate impacts on the ocean. But countries have been reluctant to do so. They have often asserted the primary mandate regarding emissions reductions and climate adaptation lay with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 

The tribunal’s advisory opinion confirmed, for the first time, that the 168 UNCLOS parties must address climate change and ocean acidification in order to comply with their obligations under the law of the sea. 

First, ITLOS confirmed that greenhouse gas emissions and the heat generated by a warming climate meet the definition of “pollution” under Article 1(4) of UNCLOS. This is important because under Part XII of UNCLOS, states have obligations to prevent, control and mitigate pollution of the marine environment from any source.

Second, the tribunal confirmed the obligation under Article 194 of UNCLOS to prevent and control pollution applies to greenhouse gas emissions. This includes emissions already accumulated in the atmosphere. States therefore must take all necessary measures to address climate change pollution and ocean acidification.

…Read more: https://theconversation.com/a-new-ruling-says-countries-including-nz-must-take-action-on-climate-change-under-the-law-of-the-sea-230420

What can I say? ITLOS have just earned themselves a place on the international treaty bonfire which we all hope will take place out the back of the White House in 2025.

The day to day impact, at first, is likely to be minimal. Nobody wants an end to shipping, in my opinion this is likely just part of the ongoing Pacific Island shakedown of anyone naive enough to give them handouts.

If cargo ships actually stopped operating, it would be an unimaginable economic and social disaster for the very island nations which brought the case.

So why bring the case? Pacific Islanders have had centuries of experience playing great powers off against each other, and manipulating international perceptions in ways which result in the islanders receiving money. Islanders are some of the smartest people on the planet, as you quickly learn if you have any islander friends. Thousands of years of brutal inter-island conflicts killed off all the stupid ancestors.

You would imagine a new requirement for net zero shipping might resurrect nuclear cargo ships, but any suggestion international shipping should go nuclear will be stomped by the very people who claim we need to reduce CO2 emissions. Greens rarely support “solutions” to an issue they claim is a planetary emergency, unless the solutions involve victimhood and embracing global communism.

Warming Temperatures In China The ‘Main Factor’ Explaining Rising Crop Yields

In what shouldn’t even be news, scientists have discovered warmth and rising CO2 are beneficial to crops, whereas cold and falling CO2 lead to declines in crop production.

From NoTricksZone

By Kenneth Richard

In what shouldn’t even be news, scientists have discovered warmth and rising CO2 are beneficial to crops, whereas cold and falling CO2 lead to declines in crop production.

Scientists have determined the “main factor” directly improving post-1960 crop yields across China is a warming climate (Chen and Sun, 2024). Warming expands the growth area for late-maturing plant varieties, reduces damage from cold temperatures, and extends growing seasons.

The authors point to a link between warming, declining sea ice, the Arctic Oscillation, and East Asian winter monsoons. Then they extend these relationships to crop growth trends in China.

Rising CO2 and its photosynthesis enhancement is another factor driving China’s rising food production.

“The effect of Arctic sea ice on Chinese crop yield is an indirect process, while the main factor that really affects China’s crop yield directly is the local air temperature change. When the air temperature in China is high, the yield will show an increasing trend, and vice versa. [T]he change in thermal conditions may also reduce the low temperature and cold damage and increase the area of late-maturing crop varieties.”

“Besides, CO2 is an essential element of crop photosynthesis and a major climate change scenario construction indicator. Increasing CO2 concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere can increase the photosynthetic rate of crops, which directly stimulates crop growth and increases the dry matter content, resulting in increased food production.”

Image  Source: Chen and Sun, 2024
s10668-022-02757-xHerunterladen

No, Washington Post, Houston’s Mosquito Problem Isn’t New or Driven by Climate Change

A recent article in the Washington Post (WaPo) linked recent heavy rain and an associated explosion of mosquitoes to climate change. Other media outlets such as Fox News, cited the WaPo story saying Mosquitoes swarm Texas town, officials blame climate change. Officials may be blaming climate change, but they are wrong.

Mosquitos fly around a container Wednesday, June 9, 2021, at Harris County Public Health’s mosquito surveillance lab in Houston.

From Watts Up With That?

By Anthony Watts

A recent article in the Washington Post (WaPo) linked recent heavy rain and an associated explosion of mosquitoes to climate change. Other media outlets such as Fox News, cited the WaPo story saying Mosquitoes swarm Texas town, officials blame climate change. Officials may be blaming climate change, but they are wrong. The WaPo and town officials are conflating weather and climate, and one exceptionally wet spring is not indicative of a long-term climate change trend. Further, history shows us that because of its geography, location, and climate, Houston has always been prime breeding grounds for mosquitoes.

Since the end of the last ice age, the south Texas coastal plain, where Houston lies, has always been hot, humid, and rife with mosquitos.

Still, WaPo’s article consists, in part, of an interview with the director of mosquito control for Houston who said:

“[A]s it gets warmer earlier, we see a larger amount of mosquitoes earlier,” said Max Vigilant, director of mosquito and vector control in Harris County, where Houston is located. “We are getting hotter temperatures earlier.”

“This is the impact that climate change has had on Harris Country,” Vigilant added.

If climate change was in fact a driver for increasing mosquitoes, you’d see it in long-term trend data for mosquito populations. However, just one year ago, Houston Public Media ran a story on a data-driven report showing the number of “mosquito days” in Houston has actually decreased since 1979:

The report showed that Houston has seen an average of 20 fewer mosquito days. According to the analysis, in 1979 Houston had 240 mosquito days. In 2022, it saw 182 mosquito days — a decrease of 58 days.

“Mosquito days” are days ideal for the bugs to thrive in: warm, humid weather. According to the study, mosquitos prefer climates that have an average relative humidity of 42% or higher and daily minimum and maximum temperatures between 50–95°F.

The data, graphed below, shows a distinct downward trend since 1979:

This data completely debunks the claim about the “impact that climate change has had” towards increasing the mosquito problem made by the director of mosquito control for Houston.

Interestingly, among the reasons for the declining mosquito days in the Houston area is actually warmer temperatures. Houston Public Media goes on to say in their story, Houston sees fewer days suitable for mosquitos due to increased temperatures, study claims:

Most of the locations that experienced a decrease in mosquito days are in the South, where summer temperatures frequently exceed the upper range that is suitable for mosquito conditions in the analysis.

Houston is built mostly on swampland, according to this Wikipedia entry:

Houston is located in the Gulf Coastal Plain biome, and its vegetation is classified as temperate grassland. Much of the city was built on marshes, forested land, swamp, or prairie, all of which can still be seen in surrounding areas.

The city has constructed reservoirs and channels to remove rainwater from the area into Galveston Bay and has about 2,500 miles of managed waterways. However, some say that Houston is now a “concrete island floating on top of a swamp.”

So, with that much water, it is no wonder that Houston has always been a mosquito breeding ground. The WaPo article even admits this:

Harris County, where it is warm enough to find the insects year-round, is home to more than 50 species of mosquito. “Houston is never completely mosquito-free,” said Sonja Swiger, an entomologist at Texas A&M.

So, why are the number of “mosquito days” decreasing in Houston?

The most likely reason for this is the rapid urbanization of Houston since 1979. According to Rice University in Houston,

The urban footprint of the Houston metropolitan area increased by 63% from 1997 to 2017. In other words, Houston’s impervious surfaces, like pavement and buildings, grew by about 1,000 km2 in 20 years.

An increased urban footprint does two things that affect the mosquito population over time:

  1. With more impervious surfaces, there’s less swampland and less breeding grounds for mosquitoes.
  2. The increased urban footprint causes an increase in the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), and raises temperatures within the city, making it less conducive to mosquitos.

A look at satellite data on UHI from a data-driven study conducted by climatologist Roy Spencer, PhD., shows a very large UHI footprint for Houston as seen in the figure below:

Clearly, the combination of increased infrastructure and increased temperature due to UHI has reduced the number of mosquito days in Houston. The so-called climate change effects cited by WaPo and the director of mosquito control are completely false, as is shown by real world data.

WaPo and Vigilant conflated a short term weather event that created flooding in the Houston area, with long term climate change. Weather is not the same as climate change. The flooding from storms temporarily created more mosquito breeding areas. Because the area’s landscape is relatively flat, many streets are lined with ditches to capture and drain stormwater filled up and did not drain for days. This added plenty of places for ideal mosquito breeding grounds. The same thing happened though not as extreme in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

This is just another instance of activist journalism at work that is tailored to fit a bought and paid for climate crisis narrative that is so often being pushed today in the media. If WaPo’s editors and fact checkers had bothered to do a modicum of research, they would have discovered that there is no merit whatsoever to the claim that climate change is causing an increase in Houston’s mosquito population, rather the problem has declined substantially during recent the period of modest warming.

NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

From Watts Up With That?

From NOAA

La Nina and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are major drivers of tropical activity

NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite captured Hurricane Idalia approaching the western coast of Florida while Hurricane Franklin churned in the Atlantic Ocean at 5:01 p.m. EDT on August 29, 2023. (Image credit: NOAA Satellites)
Download Image

RESOURCES

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.

A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (Image credit: NOAA)Download Image

“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”

“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”

A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. (Image credit: NOAA)
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As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development. 

This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear, and also minimize ocean cooling. Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane.

Enhanced communications in store for 2024 season

NOAA will implement improvements to its forecast communications, decision support and storm recovery efforts this season. These include:

  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will expand its offering of Spanish language text products to include all Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update and Key Messages in the Atlantic basin. 
  • Beginning on or around August 15, NHC will start to issue an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental U.S. Research indicates that the addition of inland watches and warnings to the cone graphic will help communicate inland hazards during tropical cyclone events without overcomplicating the current version of the graphic.
  • This season, the NHC will be able to issue U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate public advisories. This means that if updates to watches and warnings for storm surge or winds are needed, the NHC will be able to notify the public in an intermediate advisory instead of having to wait for the next full advisory issued every 6 hours.

New tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting this year

  • Two new forecast models developed by NOAA researchers will go into operation this season: The Modular Ocean Model or MOM6 will be added to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to improve the representation of the key role the ocean plays in driving hurricane intensity. Another model, SDCON, will predict the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification.
  • NOAA’s new generation of Flood Inundation Mapping, made possible through President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will provide information to emergency and water managers to prepare and respond to potential flooding and help local officials better prepare to protect people and infrastructure.
  • NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, in partnership with the NHC, will issue an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season. This graphic provides forecast rainfall totals associated with a tropical cyclone or disturbance for a specified time period.

System upgrades in operation

NOAA will upgrade its observing systems critical in understanding and forecasting hurricanes. These projects will provide more observations of the ocean and atmosphere in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, on the U.S. East Coast and in the tropical Atlantic.

  • Starting in June, dozens of observational underwater gliders are planned to deploy in waters off the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the eastern U.S. coast. Additionally, a new lightweight dropsonde called Streamsonde will be deployed into developing tropical storms, collecting multiple real-time observations to collect valuable wind data. 
  • The CHAOS (Coordinated Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean Sampling) research experiment aims to improve the understanding of air-sea interactions, providing sustained monitoring of key ocean features. 

About NOAA seasonal outlooks

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA also issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific, central Pacific and western north Pacific hurricane basins. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.

Climate, weather, and water affect all life on our ocean planet. NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict our changing environment, from the deep sea to outer space, and to manage and conserve America’s coastal and marine resources.

Concerns Mount as Met Office Fiddles With Historic Temperature Record in Exact Way Planned in Leaked ‘Climategate’ Emails

Interest and concern continues to grow about the numerous retrospective adjustments that the U.K. Met Office has made to its global HadCRUT temperature database. Often the adjustments cool earlier periods going back to the 1930s and add warming in more recent times. The adjustments are of course most convenient in promoting the global warming narrative surrounding Net Zero fantasies.

From The Daily Sceptic

BY CHRIS MORRISON

Interest and concern continues to grow about the numerous retrospective adjustments that the U.K. Met Office has made to its global HadCRUT temperature database. Often the adjustments cool earlier periods going back to the 1930s and add warming in more recent times. The adjustments are of course most convenient in promoting the global warming narrative surrounding Net Zero fantasies. There is particular interest in the 0.15°C cooling inserted in the 1940s and the greater warming added in more recent decades. The scientific blog No Tricks Zone (NTZ) has recently returned to the story noting the state-controlled Met Office has “corrected” the data to “align with their narrative”.

In suggesting a narrative, NTZ traces the adjustments back to the 2009 leak of ‘Climategate’ emails from academic staff at the University of East Anglia working on the HadCRUT project. In one email speculating on ‘correcting’ sea surface temperatures to partly explain the 1940s ‘warming blip’, it is noted that “if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say, 0.15°C, then this would be significant for the global mean”. It would be good to “remove at least part of the 1940s blip”, it is suggested. Just as they have said they would do, comments NTZ, 0.15°C of warmth has gradually been removed from the 1940s HadCRUT global temperature data over the last 15 years. 

The block graph above is compiled and published on Professor Ole Humlum’s climate4you site. It shows the net changes made since February 28th 2008 in the global monthly surface air temperature prepared by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit. The significant cooling adjustment in the 1930s and 40s is clearly shown in blue, but what really stands out is how much warming has been added in the 21st century. 

In the hiatus years of 2000-2014, the third version of HadCRUT recorded just 0.03°C  warming per decade. In fact at this time the Met Office published a paper looking into the causes of the ‘pause’, in which it referred to “little further warming” at the time. But the warming, or ‘heating’ as many in the mainstream media now like to call it, was increased to 0.08°C per decade in version 4. The recent HadCRUT5 provides no less than 0.14°C per decade of warming, using what NTZ describes as the “computer model-infilling method”.

As NTZ notes, within the last decade, a 15-year temperature trend has been changed from a pause to a strong warming. “After all, when the observations don’t fit the narrative, it is time to change the observations,” adds NTZ.

Nicola Scafetta is a research scientist at the University of Naples and he is a recognised authority on temperature datasets and climate models. He has compiled the above graph showing the ever increasing retrospectively-applied temperature anomalies from HadCRUT3 through to HadCRUT5.

As regular readers will recall, the Daily Sceptic recently broke the story that nearly 80% of the Met Office’s 380 U.K. temperature measuring stations had internationally recognised ‘uncertainties’ between 2-5°C. Specifically, almost one in three (29.2%) in ‘junk’ Class 5 had ‘uncertainties’ up to 5°C as defined by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). Nearly half (48.7%) were sited at ‘near junk’ Class 4 sites with ‘uncertainties’ of 2°C. Shockingly, only 52 stations, or just 13.7% of the total, came without any ‘uncertainty’ rating. Class 5 station are prone to pick up all manner of human and natural caused heat corruptions, while class 1 sites simply measure the surrounding air temperature.

These station class classifications, which the Daily Sceptic obtained under a freedom of information (FOI) request, cast substantial doubt on the accuracy of all ‘heat’ records recently claimed. The data might be useful for general local weather forecasting, showing, for instance, that it is warmer in cities than the surrounding countryside. A degree or more either way is not significant, and precision is not an absolute requirement for people deciding what clothing to wear. But the Met Office, a highly politicised state-funded operation devoted to pushing the Net Zero narrative, uses them to make observations down to one hundredth of a degree (0.01°) centigrade. Recently it made great play of its suggestion that last year was just 0.06°C cooler than 2022.

Having finished compiling U.K. temperatures that it can be argued have little overall statistical significance, the dataset is then inserted into the HadCRUT operation where a global temperature is announced. This, of course, is the go-to figure for any alarmist who claims global heating/boiling and the likelihood of climate collapse. It is the bedrock support for climate models claiming all manner of interesting stories such as the Arctic summer sea ice disappearing within a decade and severe air turbulence doubling in short order. Such is the fairy dust it bestows that some activists even claim they can link individual bad weather events to long-term changes in the climate caused by humans. This then percolates down to hysterical halfwits on mainstream media pointing outside the window to the weather and making unchallenged claims that the end is nigh.

Given the pivotal role the Met Office’s local and global figures play in the Net Zero narrative, it is a surprise that it has yet to make a statement, two months after the Daily Sceptic’s U.K. class revelations, explaining and justifying its temperature statistics. Can we deduce from this that its scientists are happy that they are using such poor data to scare populations over minuscule rises in temperature? Would it not be a wise use of public money to expand its class 1 network to provide data that are unadulterated with obvious heat corruptions?

The Met Office does not return the calls of the Daily Sceptic. Mainstream media and politicians ignore the story, hoping that it will go away. The temperature data are at the heart of their Net Zero goals. It appears there is too much to lose by asking a few obvious, and necessary, questions.

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.