Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
A recent article posted by CNN claims that western Antarctica is melting rapidly and can’t be stopped, due to human-caused global warming, which will result in a dangerous rise ocean levels. This is false.
A recent article posted by CNN claims that western Antarctica is melting rapidly and can’t be stopped, due to human-caused global warming, which will result in a dangerous rise ocean levels. This is false. While the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has seen more melting than other parts of the continent, it is due not to climate change but rather to localized temporary weather conditions and ongoing subsurface volcanic activity below the ice sheet. Indeed, outside of West Antarctica and the Antarctic peninsula, the larger part of the continent has gained ice mass in recent decades and has actually experienced a cooling trend.
The article, “Rapid melting in West Antarctica is ‘unavoidable,’ with potentially disastrous consequences for sea level rise, study finds,” says that West Antarctica’s ice shelves are melting rapidly, and probably can’t be stopped. CNN claims this will lead to “potentially devastating implications for sea level rise around the world,” citing a recent study in Nature Climate Change. The study’s authors claim that even if the world were to meet emissions and warming targets, like limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial global average temperature, the WAIS will still experience “substantial ocean warming and ice shelf melting[.]”
The study’s authors considered most WAIS melting to be due to “basal melting,” due to warm ocean currents that heat the ice from below. It is notable that they do not consider subsurface geothermal heating from volcanic activity below the ice as a potential contributor, especially since several recent studies suggest that the WAIS, particularly around the Thwaites glacier, sits on top of a large number of subsurface volcanoes which are believed to be contributing to melting below the ice and localized increased water temperatures.
Basal melting, then, really is the best explanation, but only appears to be occurring in the WAIS, because the rest of the continent has seen a gain in ice mass in its interior.
Sea ice itself melting cannot contribute to sea level rise, since it is already displacing water, but the Nature Climate Change study’s authors explain that the melt of the sea ice can cause land ice to shift forward and likewise melt into the warmer waters. This makes sense and likely occurs; but the recorded interior ice mass gain makes it unclear whether there is a net loss of ice for Antarctica as a whole, and if so, by how much and at what rate, making claims about rising seas extremely uncertain. Data contained in a recent study even shows that Antarctica has seen a small expansion of sea ice in total over the past seven decades, providing a compelling visual demonstration of the continent’s recent cooling trend. (See graphic below)
Indeed, the authors of the Nature Climate Change study themselves admit that their modeling suggested “internal climate variability will be extremely important in determining the future of the WAIS.” Perhaps because this admitted uncertainty fails to advance the climate crisis narrative CNN consistently pushes, the news outlet did not quote from that portion of the study, and seemingly ignored its role in Antarctica’s net ice balance.
In the implications section, the authors explain that they only focused on a single ice-ocean model and a single climate model, in the process ignoring many other potential feedbacks. They also said that increased snowfall could actually offset sea level rise, which tracks with the ice mass gain in the interior as discussed. In any case, the study authors say adaptation should be a major focus when it comes to sea level rise over the next several centuries. Most notably, “[i]nternal climate variability, which we cannot predict or control, may be the deciding factor in the rate of ice loss during this time.”
Using only a single model, and including woefully flawed RCP8.5 scenario among those examined undercuts any confidence one might have in the accuracy of the study’s predictions.
Regarding “dangerous” sea level rise, again Antarctica’s contributions are uncertain. If, as some studies show, the interior and eastern portions are gaining ice even as the WAIS suffers some melt, the continent may not contribute very much at all. The authors acknowledge this. Regardless, adaption to sea level rise is something that city planners and developers should take into account, because as discussed in Climate Realismhere, here, and here, sea levels are rising in some areas, and if there is ice melt as the planet modestly warms, we can expect this trend to continue, albeit at a less alarming pace than some in the media would have us believe.
Despite the paper acknowledging significant uncertainties, one of the study’s authors claimed that we have “lost control” of west Antarctic melting. This is pure hyperbole because humanity never had such control. The underlying paper cited by CNN displayed at least a modicum of caution and restraint. Sadly, CNN, in reporting on it, did not do the same. Rather they used some of its authors’ too-eager willingness to catastrophize in order to paint a picture of climate doom stemming from human fossil fuel use.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has expanded the availability of subsidies for green energy, with direct spending estimated to be over $1 trillion the next ten years. In addition to claims that these subsidies will address climate change, a primary justification for this increased spending is the claim that it will increase economic growth and provide millions of new jobs in green industries.
From the Global Warming Policy Foundation: We are keen to receive review comments for our new report which is now available for open review here.
Jonathan Lesser: Green energy and economic fabulism: The mirage of subsidy-propelled economic growth and employment.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has expanded the availability of subsidies for green energy, with direct spending estimated to be over $1 trillion the next ten years. In addition to claims that these subsidies will address climate change, a primary justification for this increased spending is the claim that it will increase economic growth and provide millions of new jobs in green industries. The economic reality is far different.
Given rising U.S. deficits, much, if not all, of the tax credits for green energy, especially wind and solar facilities, will be financed with additional debt. The staggering amounts of money available, more than even was spent by the government during the Great Depression, will have long-lasting and adverse consequences on energy supplies, economic growth, and the well-being of the citizenry. The subsidies will further distort energy markets and raise energy prices. The subsidies will crowd out more productive private investment and reduce the resources available for more efficient energy resources, such as nuclear power. As in Europe, the subsidies will result in higher energy prices that will cause economic and job losses throughout the entire economy. These losses will far exceed the gains provided by the subsidies themselves.
Although policy makers may choose to ignore basic economic principles in favor of political expediency and, in some cases, personal gain, those principles will not ignore them. Eventually, the profligate spending on costly, but low-value green energy will collapse under its own economic weight. The unanswered question is how high an economic and social price the U.S. will pay for this folly before that occurs.
Submitted comments and contributions will be subject to a moderation process and will be published, provided they are substantive and not abusive.Open review here.
Discounting volcanoes and meteorites, there are two types of ignition sources for wildfires – dry lightning and humans. We may further sub-divide human ignition sources into accidental and deliberate.
Human-started fires: denialist meme or growing problem, Part 1
Discounting volcanoes and meteorites, there are two types of ignition sources for wildfires – dry lightning and humans. We may further sub-divide human ignition sources into accidental and deliberate.
Deliberate fires, including wildfires, are nothing new, and examples abound. But there are some key questions about wildfire arson that it would useful to have answers to. What proportion of fires are arson? Is it increasing? What motivates arsonists? Is their motivation changing?
The question of what proportion of wildfires are arson has become a minor skirmish in the climate wars. One side likes to emphasize arson as a way of diminishing the role of climate change; the other side likes to diminish arson as a way of emphasizing the importance of climate change. As usual, I prefer to find out the truth. The truth, after all, is the only useful answer, except as propaganda.
Naturally this topic is going to take up more than a single blog post – it wasn’t when I started, but then the earth started falling away beneath my feet. So my explorations will emerge in bite-sized digestible chunks, I hope, of which this in an introductory.
My starting point was the 2019-20 Australian bushfires – “Black Summer.” What did the 2020 Royal Commission say about arson? I obtained the 594-page document, went CTRL-F, typed “arson”, and found two hits… both relating to the name “Carson.” The word “arson” is not in the Royal Commission report, anywhere. You would think the Royal Commission might find it worthwhile to report what it found about the causes of fires. But they don’t. Beyond the boiler-plate climate change genuflections, there is nothing at all about ignition sources. [A slight exaggeration; they note that pyrocumulonimbus clouds can create dry lightning far ahead of fire fronts, and start new fires there.] [Note: New South Wales’s own Inquiry found that most of the largest fires were started by lightning, and that none of the large ones were arson.]
But we know that arson played at least a small role in the 2019-20 bushfires, so this seems a strange omission on the part of the Royal Commission. Perhaps the deliberate fires were small and easily contained? It would be useful to know. It would also be useful to know what motivated the arsonists. Pyromaniacs, or motivated by self-interest, thrill-seeking, or acting out a role in an apocalyptic cult?
I wonder what Wiki says. Wiki is a trustworthy source, isn’t it? Its page on the 2019-20 bushfires has a subsection titled “Exaggerated extent of arson,” which is not matched by an equivalent subsection titled “Exaggerated extent of climate change.” In these paragraphs, Wiki takes pains to discount the role of arson. Arson, it is claimed, is a denialist ploy. Its first excerpt (from The Guardian) makes clear its position:
The Guardian reported “Bot and troll accounts are involved in a ‘disinformation campaign’ exaggerating the role of arson in Australia’s bushfire disaster, social media analysis suggests… The false claims are, in some cases, used to undermine the link between the current bushfires and the longer, more intense fire seasons brought about by climate change.”
Well, we will get to the longer and more intense fire seasons brought about by climate change another day. Suffice it to say that according to Wiki we need to move on from discussion of arson.
Giovanni Torre wrote for The Telegraph that “Australia’s bushfire crisis has led to what appears to be a deliberate misinformation campaign started by climate-change deniers claiming arson is the primary cause of the ongoing fires… Social media accounts, including Donald Trump Jr’s Twitter account, circulated the false claim that 183 people had been arrested for arson during the Australian fire crisis…”
To its credit, Wiki immediately admits that 183 people were in fact arrested in connection with the fires – but only 24 in connection with arson. But up and down and front to back, arson as a potential cause is diminished.
Without knowing anything about the frequency of arson, an obvious default assumption is that it is generally increasing. That is because, if we take as an assumption that a constant low proportion of people start fires, then as the population grows, so will the population of firestarters. We might also guess that, being human, arsonists are lazy. They won’t drive for hours into the bush and then hike ten miles from the nearest track to start a fire there. They’ll start one closer to home. If true, this has two consequences. First is that the fire is likely to be discovered faster and dealt with before it gets out of control. Second is that it begins in proximity to people, and has the direct potential to cause harm immediately, whereas remote natural fires have to gain quite a head of steam before they interact with people. In fact, in a modern technological society, a fire that starts in a remote place should be incapable of killing civilians in a not-remote place, as there should be plenty of time for evacuations. Something else we might wonder about is how easy it is to decide whether a particular fire was arson or not. (More on which on another day.)
Searching back through the archives of wildfiretoday.com, it is easy to find anecdotes about arson. Before Black Summer, Australia’s ABC ran a story about copycat firestarters in Western Australia:
“Bushfire media coverage causes ‘copycat’ fires, WA firefighter says”
Some guy’s ipse dixit, even if he knows what he’s talking about, is not great evidence. But what does he say?
Bushfires have dominated the news in Western Australia since the new year, but for volunteer firefighters, the 24-hour media coverage has a dark side. It is called copycat syndrome, which they believe is at least partly responsible for a spate of deliberately lit fires this season. “The more media exposure you get, you just seem to see the copycat syndrome, as we commonly call it, starting to come out,” said Dave Gossage, a volunteer firefighter for 34 years. “Sadly, in this space of deliberately lit fires, no matter who lights them, they often don’t understand the consequences. “You’ve only got to look at the Roleystone fires 12 months on and people are still rebuilding their homes.”Via Wildfiretoday.com
…
Dr Katarina Fritzon from the Centre for Arson Research at Queensland’s Bond University said about a third of fires nationally were deliberately lit but she believed only a small sub-group of arsonists fully understand the damage they can do. She described these offenders as people who are “particularly drawn to fire and get very excited by the stimulation that they get from setting fires”.Ibid.
Going back further, to the “Black Saturday” fires of the 2008-9 bushfire season, arson was blamed for the death of ten:
Brendan Sokaluk, 39, appeared on Tuesday in Melbourne Magistrates’ Court in Australia via video link from prison. He is facing 191 charges related to one of the fires that burned across Victoria on February 7, including 10 counts of arson causing death, intentionally causing a bushfire, criminal damage, recklessly causing injury, and possessing child pornography.Via Wildfiretoday.com
Sokaluk was thrown in jail, and may by now have been released, according to these news snippets:
And another from Black Saturday:
Two teenage boys were arrested for starting a fire in Australia on Black Saturday last February 7 in which a disabled resident burned to death. The Maiden Gully fire near Bendigo killed Kevin “Mick Kane, 48, destroyed 60 homes, caused $29 million in damages, and burned 875 acres.Via Wildfiretoday.com
Nevertheless, there is a lot less evidence for widespread arson in the 2019-20 season. Searching for news on this you will find that climate change is squarely blamed; and as with Wiki, many outlets place any mention of arson as a mark of denialism.
But if you delve into the archives, it was not always thus. The Sydney Morning Herald was willing to run an article on arson in New South Wales in January 2020 (i.e. in the middle of Black Summer).
A data collation and investigation plan has been developed to review the cause and impacts of the more than 1700 bushfires already reported to police; and consider the 12,000 fires recorded by the Rural Fire Service since August 2019,” police said in a statement released on Friday. Of those 1700, police say that 716 were deliberate lit.
…
Another 745 were of an undetermined cause, while 156 were caused naturally, police believe.
…
New figures provided by police on Friday showed that legal action has been taken against 55 people for fires that were allegedly deliberately lit since August 1. That figure includes people dealt with under mental health provisions, those given cautions and those charged with criminal offences. Legal action has also been taken against 126 people for allegedly failing to comply with a total fire ban, against 41 for throwing out a lit cigarette and against 70 juveniles for bushfire-related offences.SMH, op. cit.
Note that the numbers of different causes do not add up to the total number of bushfires, even given that one of the “causes” is “undetermined.” But the upshot appears to be that the largest fires of Black Summer were started by lightning. Quite a few fires were started by arsonists, but (reading between the lines and applying Psychology 101) these were close to human habitation and quickly spotted and stifled. There is always the lurking possibility that a truly nefarious human could be bothered to drive 20 miles out of town and start a fire in such a way that it would be later ascribed to the weather, but we have no evidence of that.
More on arson in a future episode. I will also hopefully get around to covering dry lightning and how it is likely to change in frequency going forwards, if at all. There are also one or two other things to clear up.
But for now, I leave you with a Wednesday bonus story from the 2019-20 bushfire season. Not a story about arson, but about how bovine stupidity can cause a rapid conflagration when the conditions are right (with apologies for the language; I’m sure there are actually fruitier exchanges between the parties on record but I can’t find them any more):
“Are we authorised to land in some of these areas for the guys to get out and have a piss?” [an anonymous presumably male major] said.The Guardian
Well, the guys landed their chopper and got out – but their bladders were not full enough to counter what happened next:
Smoke and visibility issues meant the landing light was switched on, but “the heat from the aircraft’s landing light caused the dry grass which the aircraft came in contact with to ignite”.
“Within 3-5 seconds of touch down a fire was ignited underneath the aircraft, which was fanned by the rotor wash,” Defence documents said.ABC
The guys hot-footed it back aboard, and by now apparently bursting, made a bee-line straight back to the airfield. They arrived 45 minutes [According to the ABC; The Guardian says 17 minutes] later, and mentioned in passing to some guy leaning on a broom that they might have started a fire somewhere, while vaguely waving in the direction of Namadgi. Meanwhile smoke had already been seen, and spotters were running around like decapitated chickens trying to find the source. By the time they did, it was too late to snuff the fire out.
The fire, which burned for five weeks, was declared out of control after 6pm [4.5 hours after it was started] when more than 1,000ha were alight and would eventually grow to burn 87,923ha throughout the ACT.The Guardian, op.cit.
Note: refer also to John’s piece from two years ago on the Greek wildfires, and comments below.
Remember, “Climate Change Roundtable” is live every Friday at 12 PM CT/1 PM ET. Join the live show to engage with our panelists and get your questions answered. If you’re keen to make sure your question gets noticed, send it in as a super chat, and we’ll be sure to address it during the show.
This week on “Climate Change Roundtable,” our trio of host Anthony Watts and panelists Linnea Lueken and H. Sterling Burnett turn their attention to the COP28 Climate Conference set to commence in Dubai on November 30th.
To shed further insight into the conference is Craig Rucker from CFACT, who is set to attend COP28. Rucker will share his expectations of the conference, highlight the special interests at play, and predict how the event will unfold.
In Episode #86, “COPs and Robbers,” we’ll take a critical look at these international gatherings, examining who benefits from them and exploring the broader implications for global climate policy. And unless you’re a politically connected global elite, don’t expect to benefit.
Additionally, we’ll touch on the latest and craziest climate news of the week.
Remember, “Climate Change Roundtable” is live every Friday at 12 PM CT/1 PM ET. Join the live show to engage with our panelists and get your questions answered. If you’re keen to make sure your question gets noticed, send it in as a super chat, and we’ll be sure to address it during the show.
Hertz was aiming to make 25% of its fleet electric by 2024, but is finding 11% is too much. Given there are whole nations pushing for 100% EV by 2035 there seems to be a message here…
Hertz was aiming to make 25% of its fleet electric by 2024, but is finding 11% is too much. Given there are whole nations pushing for 100% EV by 2035 there seems to be a message here…
Let’s thank Hertz for doing that experiment for us. It turns out EV’s didn’t work well in the high mileage Uber-type system because the drivers “drove them into the ground” and repair costs were much higher than expected. So Hertz moved some EV’s to the leisure hire department, but then the revenue per day in the leisure sector fell. Presumably people didn’t want to hire them.
It’s not that this is Bad News week for EVs — it’s quarterly reporting week, so companies have to tell investors things they’d rather not.
Great nations don’t force citizens to buy heavier cars with shorter ranges and bigger repair bills in order to stop bad weather one hundred years from now.
Rental car company Hertz once envisioned itself as the ultimate EV broker, doling out battery-powered vehicles to business travelers, ridehail drivers, and tech newbies in an ambitious plan to grease the wheels for the EV revolution. The company inked agreements with Tesla and Polestar to buy nearly 200,000 EVs. Tesla’s valuation topped $1 trillion on the news.
Part of the problem is linked to Hertz’s plans to rent EVs to ridehail drivers. Of the 100,000 Tesla acquired by Hertz, half were to be allocated to Uber drivers as part of a deal with the ridehail company. And drivers said they loved the Teslas! But Uber drivers also tend to drive their vehicles into the ground. This higher rate of utilization can lead to a lot of damage — certainly more than Hertz was anticipating.
Musk frequently says that electric cars require less maintenance than counterparts with internal combustion engines (including plug-in hybrid electrics). …
But electric vehicle owners can face unique maintenance needs, as well. Nikhil Naikal, CEO of Kinetic, a startup that is not affiliated with Hertz or Tesla but provides repairs for electric and autonomous vehicles, told CNBC on Thursday:
“The reality of electric vehicles is that they can be 1,000 pounds heavier or more than gas vehicles, and they move faster, with higher torque. Since they’re extremely zippy and heavier, it’s just physics — the ability to overcome inertia so quickly is going to effect their suspension systems, the brakes and steering columns. It’s counter-intuitive, but even with fewer moving parts they are susceptible to requiring more maintenance. They especially require tire-swapping, because the tires wear out more quickly from that high torque and weight.
Dr. Georgios Fragkoulidis uses forecasts based on climate models generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the U.S. They are based on the assumption that carbon dioxide emissions will continue to rise and remain high and that the Earth’s climate will have warmed by about 4°C by 2100.
Wind velocity and streamlines at an altitude of about 10 kilometers above the Earth’s surface on the onset of a Western Europe heat wave (23 August 2016). Credit: Georgios Fragkoulidis
Heavy precipitation, wind storms, heat waves—when severe weather events such as these occur they are frequently attributed to a wavy jet stream, reports Phys.org.
The jet stream is a powerful air current in the upper troposphere that balances the pressure gradient and Coriolis forces. It is still not known whether the jet stream is really undergoing changes at decadal timescales and, if so, to what extent.
“There are various theories as to what we can expect from the jet stream in future. However, these are all based on highly idealized assumptions,” said Dr. Georgios Fragkoulidis of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU). “Although it is quite clear that carbon dioxide emissions make a direct contribution to the global mean temperature, changes in the atmospheric circulation are highly uncertain due to the chaotic processes that govern its evolution.”
The pattern of changes over the last 40 years
In order to find out what is actually happening to the jet stream, Fragkoulidis analyzed upper-tropospheric wind data of the last 40 years. His objective was to determine how this air current at 10 kilometers above the Earth’s surface in the 1980s differs from that of today and so to assess trends it may undergo over Germany or other locations.
“When the jet stream is particularly wavy, cold air from the north or hot air from the south can reach the atmosphere above Germany, making it more likely for cold spells or heat waves to occur,” he pointed out. As a member of Professor Volkmar Wirth’s Dynamic Meteorology group at the JGU Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Fragkoulidis has conducted research into this particular topic over a number of years. In general, his results indicate that two important aspects characterize the jet stream changes.
“In winter, many regions in the Northern Hemisphere experience positive trends, while these become negative trends in summer. In other words, the jet stream becomes wavier in winter but less so in summer,” Fragkoulidis concluded. As of yet, there is no explanation for this phenomenon that partly contradicts the typical hypothesis, which asserts that the jet stream gets wavier in all seasons.
The other aspect that the Mainz-based researcher identified was that changes to the jet stream are not the same everywhere, but differ from region to region. What happens over North America is not necessarily the same as what happens over China or Europe. “We can’t assess trends on the basis of simple mottos such as ‘The jet stream is becoming wavier’ or ‘The jet stream is becoming less wavy.’ It is far more complicated than that,” he summed up.
Dr. Georgios Fragkoulidis did not only look at the waviness of the jet stream but also at the phase speed of the waves to establish how rapidly the waves moved from west to east. When they propagate slowly, this can result in stationary weather systems associated with heavy rainfall or prolonged periods of high temperatures and even drought.
“Although we may have the impression that it should be otherwise, there has been no significant change to the phase speed of waves in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly over Europe, in the last 40 years,” stated Fragkoulidis. This conclusion also contradicts some conjectures that wave movements are slowing down.
However, the results of his research show that the situation is different in the Southern Hemisphere, where more substantial changes in phase speed are observed. Again, they vary with the season and the region. His findings have been published in Weather and Climate Dynamics.
Forecasts for the end of the century
Fragkoulidis is currently examining hypotheses on how the jet stream may change in future, specifically in the end of the 21st century. For this purpose, he uses forecasts based on climate models generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the U.S. They are based on the assumption that carbon dioxide emissions will continue to rise and remain high and that the Earth’s climate will have warmed by about 4°C by 2100.
The question is how this scenario could influence the jet stream. In theory, there is no easy answer to this because the warming effect will not be identical across all of the globe. In fact, the oceans will heat up more slowly than the land masses and different heights in the troposphere will heat up at different rates. All these aspects will consequently have an impact on atmospheric circulation.
Despite all the existing uncertainties, the climate model provides some evidence that future summer trends will be similar to those of the past and that the jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere will probably be less wavy towards the end of the century. Besides, it is much more uncertain what the future winter jet stream will look like.
The Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court found Wednesday in tworulings that the state cannot enforce a regulation directed by executive order to make power plant owners pay for their planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions because it was created without legislative approval, dealing another setback to the centerpiece of former Governor Tom Wolf’s plan to fight global warming.
Carbon Tax Opposed by CO2 Coalition Stopped by Court
A proposed carbon tax — known as the Regional Greenhouse Initiative (RGGI) opposed by the CO2 Coalition has been killed by Pennsylvania’s Commonwealth Court.
In deciding a case that had been pending for months, the court found that former Gov. Tom Wolf’s unilateral action to have Pennsylvania join the RGGI regional consortium of states constituted a tax that required legislative approval and was in violation of Pennsylvania’s constitution. The current administration of Gov. Josh Shapiro has 30 days to appeal the decision to the state Supreme Court.
“We are gratified by the court’s decision and pleased to have been part of the widespread opposition to RGGI,” said Gregory Wrightstone, CO2 Coalition executive director. “Our analysis found RGGI to be unscientific, unnecessary, economically damaging and of no environmental benefit.
“RGGI, like all so-called green initiatives, is based on the false premise that emissions of carbon dioxide from human activity is overheating the planet. CO2 is in fact an essential plant food, and modern increases in atmospheric levels of the gas have contributed to record crop harvests and an overall greening of Earth. The decision to kill RGGI is a vote for benefiting humanity and a prospering economy.
CO2 Coalition findings of RGGI’s shortcomings were sent in a 2021 report to more than 400 Pennsylvania leaders in business, labor and government. Wrightstone and other CO2 coalition representatives testified against RGGI
in committee hearings in the Pennsylvania House and Senate and before the state Independent Regulatory Review Commission.
Others opposing RGGI included Power PA Jobs Alliance, an organization of business and labor groups, and Republican members of the Pennsylvania Legislature. Suits filed in Commonwealth Court by various parties, including members of the legislature and power plant owners, led to the court’s nullification of RGGI.
RGGI would have imposed a tax on emissions of carbon dioxide from power plants that burn coal and natural gas to generate electricity, adding hundreds of millions of dollars to energy costs and destroying thousands of jobs in the state’s energy sector. The 2019 proposal of Gov. Wolf is believed to have accelerated the July closing of the state’s largest coal-fired power plant at Homer City and to have discouraged the development of new fossil fuel-fired generation in the state.
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for October, 2023 was +0.93 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is slightly above the September, 2023 anomaly of +0.90 deg. C, and establishes a new monthly high temperature anomaly record since satellite temperature monitoring began in December, 1978.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 still stands at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.19 C/decade over global-averaged land).
Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 22 months are:
YEAR
MO
GLOBE
NHEM.
SHEM.
TROPIC
USA48
ARCTIC
AUST
2022
Jan
+0.03
+0.07
-0.00
-0.23
-0.12
+0.68
+0.10
2022
Feb
-0.00
+0.01
-0.01
-0.24
-0.04
-0.30
-0.49
2022
Mar
+0.15
+0.28
+0.03
-0.07
+0.23
+0.74
+0.03
2022
Apr
+0.27
+0.35
+0.18
-0.04
-0.25
+0.45
+0.61
2022
May
+0.18
+0.25
+0.10
+0.01
+0.60
+0.23
+0.20
2022
Jun
+0.06
+0.08
+0.05
-0.36
+0.47
+0.33
+0.11
2022
Jul
+0.36
+0.37
+0.35
+0.13
+0.84
+0.56
+0.65
2022
Aug
+0.28
+0.32
+0.24
-0.03
+0.60
+0.51
-0.00
2022
Sep
+0.25
+0.43
+0.06
+0.03
+0.88
+0.69
-0.28
2022
Oct
+0.32
+0.43
+0.21
+0.05
+0.16
+0.94
+0.04
2022
Nov
+0.17
+0.21
+0.13
-0.16
-0.51
+0.51
-0.56
2022
Dec
+0.05
+0.13
-0.03
-0.35
-0.21
+0.80
-0.38
2023
Jan
-0.04
+0.05
-0.14
-0.38
+0.12
-0.12
-0.50
2023
Feb
+0.09
+0.17
0.00
-0.11
+0.68
-0.24
-0.11
2023
Mar
+0.20
+0.24
+0.16
-0.13
-1.44
+0.17
+0.40
2023
Apr
+0.18
+0.11
+0.25
-0.03
-0.38
+0.53
+0.21
2023
May
+0.37
+0.30
+0.44
+0.39
+0.57
+0.66
-0.09
2023
June
+0.38
+0.47
+0.29
+0.55
-0.35
+0.45
+0.06
2023
July
+0.64
+0.73
+0.56
+0.87
+0.53
+0.91
+1.44
2023
Aug
+0.70
+0.88
+0.51
+0.86
+0.94
+1.54
+1.25
2023
Sep
+0.90
+0.94
+0.86
+0.93
+0.40
+1.13
+1.17
2023
Oct
+0.93
+1.02
+0.83
+1.00
+0.99
+0.92
+0.62
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for October, 2023 and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here.
From the Imperial College of London and the “doom is always just a few years away” department comes this snoozer. – Anthony
Without rapid carbon dioxide emission reductions, the world has a 50% chance of locking in 1.5°C of warming before 2030, according to a study led by Imperial College London researchers.
The study, published today in Nature Climate Change, is the most up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of the global carbon budget. The carbon budget is an estimate of the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that can be emitted while keeping global warming below certain temperature limits.
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature increase to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. The remaining carbon budget is commonly used to assess global progress against these targets.
The new study estimates that for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, there are less than 250 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide left in the global carbon budget.
The researchers warn that if carbon dioxide emissions remain at 2022 levels of about 40 gigatonnes per year, the carbon budget will be exhausted by around 2029, committing the world to warming of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
The finding means the budget is less than previously calculated and has approximately halved since 2020 due to the continued increase of global greenhouse gas emissions, caused primarily from the burning of fossil fuels as well as an improved estimate of the cooling effect of aerosols, which are decreasing globally due to measures to improve air quality and reduce emissions.
Dr Robin Lamboll, research fellow at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, and the lead author of the study, said: “Our finding confirms what we already know – we’re not doing nearly enough to keep warming below 1.5°C.
“The remaining budget is now so small that minor changes in our understanding of the world can result in large proportional changes to the budget. However, estimates point to less than a decade of emissions at current levels.
“The lack of progress on emissions reduction means that we can be ever more certain that the window for keeping warming to safe levels is rapidly closing.”
Dr Joeri Rogelj, Director of Research at the Grantham Institute and Professor of Climate Science & Policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, said: “This carbon budget update is both expected and fully consistent with the latest UN Climate Report.
“That report from 2021 already highlighted that there was a one in three chance that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C could be as small as our study now reports.
“This shows the importance of not simply looking at central estimates, but also considering the uncertainty surrounding them.”
The study also found that the carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 2°C is approximately 1,200 gigatonnes, meaning that if carbon dioxide emissions continue at current levels, the central 2°C budget will be exhausted by 2046.
There has been much uncertainty in calculating the remaining carbon budget, due to the influence of other factors, including warming from gasses other than carbon dioxide and the ongoing effects of emissions that are not accounted for in models.
The new researchused an updated dataset and improved climate modelling compared to other recent estimates, published in June, characterising these uncertainties and increasing confidence around the remaining carbon budget estimates.
The strengthened methodology also gave new insights into the importance of the potential responses of the climate system to achieving net zero.
‘Net zero’ refers to achieving an overall balance between global emissions produced and emissions removed from the atmosphere.
According to the modelling results in the study, there are still large uncertainties in the way various parts of the climate system will respond in the years just before net zero is achieved.
It is possible that the climate will continue warming due to effects such as melting ice, the release of methane, and changes in ocean circulation.
However, carbon sinks such as increased vegetation growth could also absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide leading to a cooling of global temperatures before net zero is achieved.
Dr Lamboll says these uncertainties further highlight the urgent need to rapidly cut emissions. “At this stage, our best guess is that the opposing warming and cooling will approximately cancel each other out after we reach net zero.
“However, it’s only when we only when we cut emissions and get closer to net zero that we will be able to see what the longer-term heating and cooling adjustments will look like.
“Every fraction of a degree of warming will make life harder for people and ecosystems. This study is yet another warning from the scientific community. Now it is up to governments to act.”
More payments and costs for an unknown future with no apparent success. Greetings from the medievial indulgence trade.
China’s ambassador to the EU criticised the EU’s actions as “unjustified and regrettable,” cautioning last week against political confrontations jeopardising climate cooperation.
The need for agreement to tackle global warming is “higher than ever”, but it has never been harder as the geopolitical backdrop complicates international cooperation, the European Union’s climate chief said on Monday (30 October) ahead of next month’s COP28 summit, reports Euractiv .
Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra also said the EU would not accept an outcome at COP28 that only reached deals on less contentious topics – such as increased use of renewable energy – if it failed to solve tougher issues such as phasing out fossil fuels.
“This is not an à la carte menu. It is actually all that is on the menu that needs to be delivered on,” he told Reuters on the sidelines of a preliminary COP28 gathering in Abu Dhabi ahead of the UN summit starting at the end of November.
The challenge of getting countries to agree is all the greater as Israel has escalated its bombardment of Gaza, Russia’s war on Ukraine continues and tensions run high between the US and China.
At the same time as “geopolitically very challenging times” make agreement on the climate harder than ever, the need is “higher than ever,” Hoekstra said.
Scientists have blamed global warming, caused by the burning of fossil fuels, for extreme weather this year, which is on track to be the hottest on record.
Israel has so far rejected international calls for a temporary pause in its bombardment of Gaza and politicians have warned of the risk of a wider conflict.
Tensions have also risen between Europe and China as Brussels investigates whether to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports that it says are state- subsidised.
At the same time as “geopolitically very challenging times” make an agreement on climate harder than ever, the need is “higher than ever,” said Wopke Hoekstra, the EU’s climate chief. [Photo: European Union, 2023. Source: EC – Audiovisual Service]
The Heartland Institute
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