Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
Everywhere there are free and fair elections and a politically biased media,ย people will be shocked.
What does โfar rightโ even mean when it applies to a quarter of the population?
It means name-calling is embedded in our vocabulary. Geert Wilderโs party has won 37 seats in the Netherlands election with 24% of the vote โ more than any other party. There are 150 seats in total in the Dutch Parliament, so itโs not clear what the final winning coalition will look like. What is clear is that environmentalists hate it:
Environmental groups have expressed shock and promised climate action in response to Dutch election results. Wednesday night saw the historic victory of the far right Party for Freedom (PVV).
โWe are shocked,โ Extinction Rebellion Netherlands says. โThis outcome will likely mean a rollback of climate measures, new fossil investments, exclusion of marginalised groups, and more.โ
If far-right applies to a quarter of the population, and the Greens appeal to a much smaller slice, itโs only fair they be called the extreme-left, yes?.
How many votes is it worth when a party is gifted a โlabelโ by the media day in and day out. How many people would have voted for a โCentre Rightโ party who would not even consider โthe far rightโ? It could be a 2 โ 5% advantage right there.
Left leaning players cheat and deceive with language every day, and the Right let them get away with it.
We need to fight for our language, for consistent words.
So letโs mock the partisan reporters who keep calling the center Right, the far-right. โWe know which way you voteโ. Ask them to define their terms.
Thereโs a trend across Europe โ Victor Orban (Hungary), Geiorgia Meloni (Italy), Sweden, Finlandโฆ
Once renowned for tolerance, stability, liberalism and its pro-European credentials, one of the EUโs wealthiest nations is now a seething hotbed of discontent.
If it were only the Netherlands that would be bad enough, but most of the discontents and political trends that have propelled Wilders to victory are writ large across the EU.
Congratulations to Geert Wilders and his team, and to Javier Milei who won 56% of the vote in Argentina this week too. In the latterโs case, heโs not just โfar rightโ but fully anti-science, according to Nature โ the science journal that appears to think science is defined by government funding, not by evidence.
As part of his plan to address the countryโs economic crisis, Javier Milei has promised to slash research funding and shut down key science agencies.
The result brings much uncertainty for Argentinaโs science community. Milei and other members of his party, La Libertad Avanza (Liberty Advances), have pledged to shut down or possibly privatize the countryโs main science agency, the National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), as well as to eliminate the ministries of health, science and the environment.
So 56% of Argentian voters are climate skeptics:
โA massive setbackโ
Milei has also called climate change is a โsocialist hoaxโ, comments that have stirred concern in the science community. โHis position is typical of a denier,โ says Matilde Rusticucci, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Buenos Aires
Good to know next time someone says a skeptic is unelectable.
In a recent development that has thrown Germany into financial disarray, the nationโsย constitutional court has overturned Chancellor Olaf Scholzโs spending strategy. This ruling has caused a โฌ60 billionย deficit in the countryโs finances and has led to a proposed suspension of the constitutional law that restricts borrowing.
Appropriation of 60 billion euros ruled unconstitutional by Germany High Court
After Germanyโs Ministry of Health had been granted 200 billion euros of spending to combat the Corona pandemic, it ultimately ended up spending only 140 billion, thus leaving 60 billion unused. Health minister Karl Lauterbach (Socialists) and economics and environment minister Robert Habeck (Greens) moved to spend the 60 billion euros on climate projects.
Illegal funneling
Germanyโs ministers Habeck and Lauterbach tried to pull a fast one, and to funnel the unused money for other purposes, namely climate and transformation projects that would make Germany more green and climate friendly.
Unconstitutional! Thatโs what Germanyโs top court just ruled, and the government has now imposed a โspending freeze on new expenditures, especially green initiatives,โ reports euronews.com. This has thrown Germanyโs budget into chaos.
At the stroke of a pen and a blink of an eye, Germanyโs Ministry of Economics and Environment is suddenly missing $60 billion euros it had planned to use to finance the many green transformation projects. Germanyโs climate program has just crashed spectacularly into a wall.
The government has also since ordered a โspending freeze on new expenditures, especially green initiatives,โ according toย euronews.com here. The consequences are horrendous.
Projects โmay be on the brink of collapseโ
For example, because billions are suddenly unavailable, chip factories in Magdeburg and Dresden may be on the brink of collapse, according to the online Berliner Zeitung here. โPreviously, this amount had been kept aside to be used for renewable energy subsidies, energy-efficient housing, chips production and support measures for high-energy companies.โ But the German top court rules it unconstitutional.
Longterm budget in total disarray
โThe top courtโs ruling has thrown German Chancellor Olaf Scholzโs coalition governmentโs 2024 budget announcement plans on Friday into disarray. The impact could also extend to financial plans until 2027, as the government now has to make do with โฌ60 billion less,โ reports euronews.com.
Nius.de here comments: โThe real kicker, however, is that the Federal Constitutional Courtโs decision is likely to affect not only the so-called โclimate and transformation fundโ of the federal government, but also other โspecial fundsโ of the federal government, from which it wants to pay electricity subsidies for industry, for example, after initially borrowing a lot of money to destroy the reliable energy supply in Germany.โ
A war against farmers has emerged, threatening to push them off the land theyโve farmed for generations. As small and mid-sized farms close their doors, governments and corporate entities can scoop up the land. Those in control of the land control the food supply and, along with it, the people.
In Canada, Trudeauโs Liberals have announced a goal of a 50 percent reduction in emissions from fertilizer, a major producer of nitrous oxide, over the next seven years.
โFertilizer Canada slammed the governmentโs short-sighted approach, arguing that reducing nitrogen fertilizer use โwill have considerable impact on Canadian farmersโ incomes and reduce overall Canadian exports and GDP.โ
They may as well slam their heads against a barn door. When it comes to Canadaโs re-invention as a socialist state, nothing will knock the communist ship off its course.
โA report compiled by Meyers Norris Penny suggests that regulated fertilizer reduction could cost Canadian farmers $48 billion by 2030 and reduce crop sizes.โ
Justin Trudeau has waged war against his own country since the day he became PM in 2015. This man doesnโt like our country very much, and in particular, maintains an innate hatred toward working class Canadians. Perhaps itโs because he has never been one. Then again, it could be part of a larger plot unfolding within society.
It was destined to roll around eventually: an attack on Canadian farmers under that gloriously green, climate emergency banner. This recent Trudeau move involves limiting the usage of fertilizer โ a substance, when delivered in its most smelly, natural form, reminds us of what the federal Liberals have long shoveled upon Alberta.
Cutting the bull and arriving at the meat, so to speak: the government intends to effectively reduce farmersโ use of fertilizer by 50 per cent โ in scientific terms by limiting the use of the key ingredient nitrous oxide โ as part of its bid to severely reduce carbon emissions and thereby fight accelerating climate change.
Farmers, instead, want any fertilizer reductions measured by how much food is produced compared to the amount of fertilizer used, something western growers are striving for already, as growing more for less saves them money in addition to curbing emissions.
Now, when thereโs a global food emergency looming due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, such a practical step would seem eminently sensible. But no, Trudeau is demanding an absolute reduction in usage, which will naturally result in less food being produced.
Contributing to global starvation has now become part of current Canadian public policy.
This latest stupidity was undoubtedly spawned when our prime minister โ always looking to one-up any country competing in the green-morality sweepstakes โ learned the Dutch government intended such a move.
In the Netherlands that immediately resulted inย mass protests by furious farmers,ย who closed highways with tractors, brought cows to the capital, threatening to slaughter them on parliamentary steps, while blocking vital food distribution centres.
Is the Nitrogen Crisis Real?
โIn 2021, the European Unionโs Natura 2000 network released a map of areas in the Netherlands that are now protected against nitrogen emissions. Any Dutch farmer who operates their farm within 5 kilometers of a Natura 2000 protected area would now need to severely curtail their nitrogen output, which in turn would limit their productionโ
Dutch dairy farmer Nynke Koopmans with the Forum for Democracy believes the nitrogen problem is made up. โItโs one big lie,โ she says. โThe nitrogen has nothing to do with environmental. Itโs just getting rid of farmers.โ Another farmer said if new nitrogen rules go into effect, heโd have to reduce his herd of 58 milking cows down to six.
Nitrogen scientist Jaap C. Hanekamp was working for a government committee to study nitrogen, tasked with analyzing the governmentโs nitrogen model. He told Balmakov:8
โThe whole policy is based on the deposition model about how to deal with nitrogen emissions on nature areas. And I looked at the validation studies and show that the model is actually crap. It doesnโt work. And doesnโt matter. They still continue using it, which is, in a sense, unsettling. I mean, really, can we do such a thing in terms of policy? Use a model which doesnโt work? Itโs never about innovation, itโs always about getting rid of farmers.โ
Paper by C. A. de Lange, J. D. Ferguson, W. Happer, and W. A. van Wijngaarden. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.
Higher concentrations of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) are expected to slightly warm Earthโs surface because of increases in radiative forcing. Radiative forcing is the difference in the net upward thermal radiation flux from the Earth through a transparent atmosphere and radiation through an otherwise identical atmosphere with greenhouse gases. Radiative forcing, normally measured in Wmโ2, depends on latitude, longitude and altitude, but it is often quoted for the tropopause, about 11 km of altitude for temperate latitudes, or for the top of the atmosphere at around 90 km.
For current concentrations of greenhouse gases, the radiative forcing per added N2O molecule is about 230 times larger than the forcing per added carbon dioxide (CO2) molecule. This is due to the heavy saturation of the absorption band of the relatively abundant greenhouse gas, CO2, compared to the much smaller saturation of the absorption bands of the trace greenhouse gas N2O.
But the rate of increase of CO2 molecules, about 2.5 ppm/year (ppm = part per million by mole), is about 3000 times larger than increase of N2O molecules, which has held steady at around 0.00085 ppm/year since the year 1985. So, the contribution of nitrous oxide to the annual increase in forcing is 230/3000 or about 1/13 that of CO2. If the main greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4 and N2O have contributed about 0.1 C/decade of the warming observed over the past few decades, this would correspond to about 0.00064 K per year or 0.064 K per century of warming from N2O.
Proposals to place harsh restrictions on nitrous oxide emissions because of warming fears are not justified by these facts. Restrictions would cause serious harm; for example, by jeopardizing world food supplies.
It all looks as the โnitrogen warโ in the Netherlands is an anticipation of the conflict between environment awareness organizations and agriculture, industry over production systems and its consequences.
โI really understand their anger,โ Marcel Crok, a Dutch science writer and co-founder of the Climate Intelligence Foundation, said in an interview. โThe farmers are also angry because they say, โwe are the only sector who get all the blame.โ What about industry? What about the traffic? Maybe we should just ban all the cars in the Netherlands because they also emit nitrogen.โ
โThis plan as announced in practice means that, in certain areas, farmers have to reduce their nitrogen emissions by 70%,โ he continued. โThat means they simply have to quit.โ
The proposal to sharply cut nitrogen emissions is tied to a 2019 Dutch court decision forcing the nationโs government to take more aggressive measures to curb nitrogen emissions. The Netherlands, though, has heavily regulated agriculture emissions since the 1990s and farmers have largely complied with such rules, Crok said.
Netherlands emits a large quantity of nitrogen because of its massive agriculture industry which accounts for about 87% of the countryโs 124 million kilograms of annual ammonia emissions, a US Department of Agriculture report showed. The nation exported US$26.8 billion worth of food products despite having a relatively tiny population compared to other major producers, according to World Bank data.
โIt is not very rational to curb the Dutch agriculture if you realize that they have the highest production per acre in the world and therefore the environmental load per kilogram food is lower than elsewhere,โ Simon Rozendaal, a Dutch journalist and chemists said. โSo, in a sense Dutch agriculture is a benefit for climate as well as biodiversity.โ
โThis will definitely affect ordinary civilians and is part of a global agenda, so everyone around the world, especially Western countries, should be aware that this is something that is not just about the Dutch government. This is part of the โ2030 agenda,โ this is part of the โgreat reset.โ
โSimilar protests could soon happen in the U.K. and parts of the European Union where natural gas and energy costs are near historic levels, according to Benny Peiser, the director of the London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation. In the U.K., increased prices are expected to send 24% of households, or about 6.5 million households, into fuel poverty.
โThe issue is that despite this growing energy crisis in Europe, some governments still prioritize the climate agenda which makes energy ever more expensive, or which forces farmers to close their farms because that is the top priority, still, for a number of governments,โ Peiser argued. โThis whole green agenda is causing huge burdens.โ
โThe Dutch are driven mad by these policies because itโs killing their businesses and the farmers are fighting back big time,โ he said. โThis is whatโs going to happen all over Europe. I have no doubt that, come winter and millions of families canโt heat their homes or pay their bills anymore, that there will be unrest all over Europe.โ
An Associated Press (AP) story reports that Australia has offered refuge to up to 280 residents of Tuvalu each year, allowing them to โescape rising seas and other ravages of climate change.โ Australiaโs refugee policies may result in some migration from Tuvalu. However, any residents that do migrate, wonโt be relocating to avoid dangerous changes to the island nation resulting from climate change, because data show Tuvalu, like many other island nations, is actually growing amid modest warming, rather than being lost to rising seas.
โWe believe the people of Tuvalu deserve the choice to live, study and work elsewhere, as climate change impacts worsen,โ Albanese said in announcing the plan. โAustralia has committed to provide a special pathway for citizens of Tuvalu to come to Australia, with access to Australian services that will enable human mobility with dignity.โ
As noble as Albaneseโs sentiments are, his concerns about climate changeโs impacts on Tuvalu are misplaced.
As discussed in Climate at a Glance: Islands and Sea Level Rise, data presented in multiple studies show that most islands and atolls in the Pacific Ocean, including Tuvalu, are growing, not shrinking. Rising seas are depositing sand and sediment, building up the height of islands and expanding their coastlines. Also, despite many predictions that island nations in the Pacific would spawn waves of climate refugees, the population of Tuvalu and other islands have steadily grown, not decreased.
This research has been discussed in multiple Climate Realism posts, here, here, and here, for example.
As early as 2010, research showed the small island nations of Tuvalu and Kiribati were growing, rather than being submerged beneath rising seas. The BBC discussed one study which surveyed 27 islands spanning Tuvalu, Kiribati, and the Federated States of Micronesia, and found that over the last 60 years, 80 percent of the islands either maintained their size or grew, with some growing dramatically.
The 2010 scientific findings were confirmed and expanded upon in 2015 when the same group of researchers published a peer-reviewed study of 600 coral reef islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The researchers found approximately 40 percent of those islands remained stable, and 40 percent grew in size.
As National Geographic reported, โSome islands grew by as much as 14 acres (5.6 hectares) in a single decade, and Tuvaluโs main atoll, Funafutiโ33 islands distributed around the rim of a large lagoonโhas gained 75 acres (32 hectares) of land during the past 115 years.โ
Research published in 2018 in the peer reviewed journal GIScience & Remote Sensing confirmed the earlier studies results, concluding that 15 of the 28 uninhabited islands on Tuvaluโs Funafuti Atoll saw their shorelines increase in recent years.
Nor have tropical cyclones increased in number or become stronger during the recent period of modest warming, so that canโt be a factor driving Tuvaluanโs from their homes.
Australiaโs government can welcome as many Tuvaluanโs to their shores as it wishes, but, as it does so, Australiaโs citizens should be aware that despite their governmentโs claims, any influx of migrants from Tuvalu is not being driven by climate change. The AP, the Australian government, or someone, should at least be honest about what is and what is not responsible for any migration from Tuvalu to Australia, a task with seems to fall to Climate Realism.
Everything AEP writes about Net Zero seems to be infused with wishful thinking, no more so than where China is concerned:
Chinaโs carbon emissions have either peaked already or will do this winter, seven years ahead of schedule. They may plateau for a year or two but will then go into exponential decline for mechanical and unstoppable reasons.
The countryโs target of net zero by 2060 is likely to be achieved a decade earlier than previously assumed, and perhaps earlier than in Europe.
This is a remarkable turn of events. Xi Jinping has made a giant strategic and economic bet on clean-tech dominance, aiming to corner the worldโs renewable market and to break dependency on sea-borne energy supplies running through the US 7th Fleet.
The International Energy Agency says China accounts for 60pc of all new solar and wind power being installed across the world this year and next. This roll-out has combined with a drastic slowdown in Chinaโs rate of economic trend growth and the exhaustion of its Ponzi style property model.
China is building a gargantuan network of โclean energy basesโ in the Gobi, Ordos, and Tengger deserts, and further across the arid wastelands of the northwest. Solar and wind parks run along an arc from Inner Mongolia to Qinghai on the Tibetan plateau.
As I have been reporting for years, large scale investment in renewable capacity has not been enough to meet increasing demand for electricity in China, which has had to be met with additional coal power. Wind and solar still only accounted for 13% of Chinaโs electricity in 2022, compared to 29% in what he describes as the foot-dragging UK!
Chinaโs economic growth, and therefore energy demand, has slowed in the last two years, not least because of their disastrous lockdown policies. This inevitably means that the need for more coal power is reduced. Whether economic growth remains subdued is moot โ so far this year it is up 4.4% year-on-year. And it may well be that the use of coal power does flatten off in the next few years. And it also may well be the case that eventually China will catch up with the UK in terms of the renewables share.
However AEP makes a schoolboy error, assuming that current trends will continue forward in a straight line, until all Chinaโs electricity is supplied by renewables. He clearly still does not realise that neither we or China can run a modern economy on intermittent wind and solar power alone.
He also makes the mistake of ignoring all of the energy China consumes outside of the power sector, which accounts for half of total primary energy. A good indicator is their consumption of oil and gas, which are barely used for power generation. Since 2011, consumption has risen by 71%.
None of this energy can be replaced directly with wind and solar power.
China is of course building lots of EVs, which may help to reduce oil consumption eventually, but this begs the question of where the energy needed to build and run them will come from. Itโs a fundamental misunderstanding to assume that this will come from wind and solar, as these are already maxed out on the grid. Any additional demand can only come from dispatchable sources, which basically means coal.
AEP is right about Xiโs concern for energy security, but that is precisely why China will want to maximise its own coal reserves. It is also why they have been strategically developing secure supplies of oil and gas, in particular from Russia and Turkmenistan, from where new pipelines are either being built or planned. China has also been assiduous in building relationships with the Middle East. Imports from Iran, for instance, are 60% higher than pre-sanction peaks in 2017.
Another indicator of Chinaโs addiction to oil is the fact that the countryโs oil refining capacity has grown by 40% since 2010, and is now bigger than the US.
AEP relies on Carbon Brief for advice in his article. Given that they are a lobby group set up specifically to campaign for climate action, they are hardly a reliable, objective source! Maybe he should have consulted Climate Tracker, another group keen to push the same agenda, but also determined to report the realities. This is how they sum up Chinaโs climate policies:
As Climate Tracker suggests, Chinaโs emissions may well start to level off by 2030. But there is nothing to suggest that they will actually start to fall drastically thereafter.
Millennial-scale Arctic sea ice reconstructions do not corroborate alarmist claims of unprecedented sea ice losses in modern times.ย
Using sea ice biomarker proxy (IP25), scientists (Kolling et al., 2023) have determined that the sea ice extent in the Labrador Sea was nearly absent throughout the year (close to 0.0 ฮผg/gTOC) for much of the last 9,000 years. The sea ice was lowest (~0.1 ฮผg/gTOC) 9,300 to 8,900 years ago, and low (~0.4 ฮผg/gTOC) from 7,500 to 4,000 years ago.
The lack of a trend in sea ice loss across the Labrador Sea is consistent with observations that show the region has not warmed in the last 70 years (Yashayaev and Loder, 2017).
Other scientists (Wu et al., 2020) determined that from about 14,000 to 8,000 years ago, when CO2 lingered near 250 ppm, the Beaufort Sea (Arctic) was โnearly ice free throughout the yearโ (<0.2 PIP25) and ~4ยฐC warmer than today in winter.
With modern (1988-2007) CO2 at ~400 ppm, this region is 70-100% ice-covered (>0.8 PIP25) for 10 to 11 months per year.
Svalbard sea ice has expanded to its highest extent of the Holocene (11,700 years ago to present) during the last 500 to 700 years (Allaart et al., 2020).
The Holoceneโs sea ice maximum just developed during modern times, as the authors note there has been an โincrease in IP25ย concentrations after c. 0.7ยฑ0.2 cal. ka BP, with a maximum in the modern sediments.โ
A study site northeast of Svalbard, scientists (Brice et al., 2020) find todayโs sea surface temperatures of โ<0ยฐCโ are at least 4ยฐC colder than they were just a few thousand years ago, when the Arctic was sea ice free for all but โa couple of monthsโ every year.
Todayโs sea ice monthly duration (~11 months per year) and summer sea surface temperatures (zero degrees Celsius) are among the highest and lowest (respectively) of the Holocene.
The upcoming United Nations (UN) climate conference in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), known as COP28, appears likely to have a larger carbon footprint than any previous UN climate change summit.
More than 70,000 people areย expectedย to show up to COP28, about 25,000 more people than last yearโs summit,ย COP27. The conference, which runs from Nov. 30 through Dec. 12, will focus on global strategies to reduce emissions and accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels in favor of green energy.
CHART OF THE DAY: A **forecast** that blew my mind. More than 70,000 people are **expected** to show up at #COP28 in Dubai.
If confirmed (note **if**), that's double the previous record, and shows COP is now a business on its own, as much as a climate change conference. pic.twitter.com/7sCqHapmHd
Conference attendees have drawnย scrutinyย in previous years for traveling to and from the event in private jets while lecturing on the importance of reducing emissions. Notably, aย luxuryย concierge service has been offering to arrange private jet charters ahead of this yearโs conference.
In addition to flying in and out of the UAE, many attendees will also stay in high-end hotels and have access to โenvironmentally sustainable, socially responsible, delicious and nutritious food and beverage,โ according to COP28โs website.
One of the key issues to be discussed at COP28 is the shape of a so-called โloss and damagesโ fund, a de facto international climate reparations program. Special presidential envoy for climate John Kerry recently suggested that the U.S. will pay โmillionsโ into the fund, a number that many activists and representatives of poorer countries find to be inadequate. China is unlikely to have any significant obligations to the fund because it is classified as a developing country, despite its status as the worldโs top emitter and second-largest economy.
โWith John Kerry and Joe Biden promising billions in U.S. taxpayer money and beefing up the treasuries of non-governmental organizations with tens of billions of dollars in 2024 get-out-the-vote activist money, this yearโs climate gong show was bound to attract record numbers of camp-followers, celebrities, kleptocrats and other misfits,โ Dan Kish, senior fellow for the Institute for Energy Research said. โItโs as though theyโre ringing the dinner bell which always attracts people looking for a free lunch.โ
Representatives for the U.N. did not respond immediately to the Daily Caller News Foundationโs request for comment.
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