Tag: subzero temperatures

MSNBC Damage Control: “Yes, it’s cold. Yes, the planet’s still warming.” 

Defending the hottest year ever narrative in the middle of record breaking cold.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Defending the hottest year ever narrative in the middle of record breaking cold.

Yes, it’s cold. Yes, the planet’s still warming. 

It’s important to remember that the cold snap is, for many of us, just a moment of discomfort, while climate change is a long-term disaster.

By Derrick Z. Jackson

It’s become a familiar pattern by now. Every cold snap that grips the nation brings with it a bunch of hot air from conservative politicians who seize on subzero temperatures and declare global warming a hoax.

Mocking climate protesters who interrupted Republican campaign events in Iowa, Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., posted on social media: “You’ve got to appreciate the irony of climate protestors trudging through a foot of snow and -30 degree wind chills to yell about how the planet is warming. They just don’t see it, do they?”

When a climate protester in that same state was tackled by security guards at a campaign event for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., gleefully posted a videoof the protester being body-slammed. He wrote, “The irony of protesting global warming during a once in a lifetime cold snap/blizzard. dude found out!” And after a climate protester held up a sign calling former President Donald Trump a “climate criminal,” Politico quoted Trump adviser Chris LaCivita as saying: “Climate change? It’s minus 15 degrees. Read the room, man.”

…

Despite the skepticism from those Republicans that cold weather and climate change can co-exist, it’s important to remember that, for many of us, the cold snap is just a moment of discomfort, while climate change is a long-term disaster. Scientists are mixed as to how connected modern cold snaps are to the warming of the Arctic and how much they’re the result of natural variability despite the warming. Some models, according to a 2021 explainer by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, point to stronger polar vortexes. Others point to weaker polar vortexes.

…Read more: https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/republicans-cold-weather-climate-change-deniers-rcna134148

A week ago, Bloomberg reminded us snow is becoming a thing of the past;

Don’t Be Fooled, Snow Is Becoming a Thing of the Past

Storms will keep happening, but the long-term trend is warmer winters with less snowfall, which will bring severe consequences such as water shortages and lost economic activity.

8 January 2024 at 22:00 GMT+10
By Mark Gongloff

…

Winter storms like the one that blanketed parts of the Northeast in snow this weekend will keep happening but less frequently. The long-term trend, especially in the normally colder parts of the US and other countries, is one of warmer winters with less of the white stuff.

…

Snow has been scarce in the US lately. Aside from the blizzard that swept the Plains and Midwest around Christmas, snarling travel, most of the country has been well below snowfall averages for this time of year, according to the National Weather Service. Only about a fifth of the country was covered in snow before this weekend’s storm, the lowest in more than a decade.

…

At the rate we’re cooking the planet, this is all just a taste of what’s to come. The best thing we can do now is turn off the oven. As that’s unlikely any time soon, scientists and policymakers should be busy adapting to the headaches that shrinking winters and snowfall will bring — the agricultural impacts, longer allergy seasons, resilient pests, water shortages, lost economic activity and more. Whatever our feelings about the season in the past, there is no doubt we’ll miss it when it’s gone.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-08/winter-storm-aside-snow-is-disappearing-because-of-climate-change?embedded-checkout=true

And back in December, VOX explained that mild winter weather in New York is a sign of global warming.

Missing the feeling of a white Christmas? That might be solastalgia.

Finally, a term that explains the sadness of a whole season — and a way of life — melting before our eyes.

By Anna North  Dec 21, 2023, 7:00am EST

A snowy winter in New York City brings with it a kind of magic. The air goes crisp, then bitter, and fragile snowflakes sift down in the early dark, silvering the trees and blanketing the sledding hills in the parks. After the first big snow, children and adults alike rush out to make snowmen, creations that delight passersby for the next two frigid months, until the snow finally thaws. When I took my older son, then a toddler, out for his first-ever sledding session, he squealed with awe at the crystalline world before him, shouting, “It looks like Frozen!” 

Today he’s 5, and I doubt he remembers what sledding feels like. It’s been more than 650 days since Central Park, where snow is measured daily, got more than an inch of snowfall at one time; last winter, the park got just 2.3 inches in total, less than one-tenth the normal amount. In early December, Brooklyn saw a few anemic flurries, and my son told me excitedly that his friends had tried to build a snowman during recess. But there was nowhere near enough material to work with. They settled for “a pile of snowflakes.”

This sense of winter melting away before our eyes is not unique to New York: While blazing-hot summers and stormy autumns come with their own dangers, scientists say winter is actually the fastest-warming season. Snowfall is decreasing across the Northeast, the flakes slowly replaced by raindrops. The Great Lakes have experienced a 22 percent drop in maximum ice cover since 1973, and are frozen for a shorter percentage of the year. In December 2022, Utqiagvik, the northernmost city in Alaska, posted its warmest winter temperature ever at 40 degrees Fahrenheit, a full 36 degrees above the frigid average for that time of year.

…Read more: https://www.vox.com/culture/24001256/snow-winter-climate-change-solastalgia-warming

I hear New York received a big dose of that snowy weather they were all missing a few days ago.

Does a single really cold winter disprove global warming? Of course not. But the panicked green response to gentle mocking of global warming narratives sure tells us which side of the debate has a sense of humour.

NERC ducks extreme cold grid threats

UNITED STATES – AUGUST 15: Manhattan skyline is dark as the sun comes up on the morning after a massive power failure caused the largest power outage in the nation’s history, affecting 50 million people in parts of seven states and Canada. (Photo by Mike Albans/NY Daily News Archive via Getty Images)

By David Wojick

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has released its “2023 Long-Term Reliability Assessment”, a 10-year-ahead look at threats to grid reliability. Not surprisingly, they see a lot of growing threats around the country.

Unfortunately, they ignore the greatest threat of all, which is blackouts caused by extreme, deadly cold weather. They also have ridiculously low projections for renewables, which will crowd out reliable generation. The looming, destructive “energy transition” is not considered.

NERC starts off well enough, recognizing the dual threats of renewables and extreme cold in general terms in the Executive Summary. Then, their detailed analysis ignores both.

The Executive Summary says this:

“This assessment provides clear evidence of growing resource adequacy concerns over the next 10 years. Capacity deficits are projected in areas where future generator retirements are expected before enough replacement resources are in service to meet rising demand forecasts. Energy risks are projected in areas where the future resource mix could fail to deliver the necessary supply of electricity under energy-constrained conditions.”

“For example, subfreezing temperatures can create energy-limiting conditions by disrupting the natural gas fuel supplies to generators, leading to fuel-related derates or outages and potentially insufficient electricity supply. Furthermore, disruptions in electricity supplies can further exacerbate the availability of natural gas, which is dependent on the delivery of this electrical energy. Periods of low wind are another example of potentially energy-constrained conditions if the resource mix is not sufficiently balanced with dispatchable resources to prevent electricity shortfalls. While the outlook is improving for some assessment areas where resource additions and delayed generator retirements are alleviating previously identified near-term supply shortfalls, a growing number of areas in North American face resource capacity or energy risks over this assessment period.”

That cold weather can cripple the gas-fired power system was discovered in the Texas blackout disaster and seen again in the nearly catastrophic conditions in PJM around Christmas 2022. PJM has levied fines of over a billion dollars on their gas power system for failure to meet firm contracts during the Christmas fiasco.

But NERC should be thinking of subzero temperatures, not subfreezing. Incredibly, their analysis fails to do this properly because they use average low temperatures, not the likely extremes that they should be planning for.

This deliberate oversight is well hidden. In a brief list of “assumptions” up front, we find just this easily missed partial sentence: “Peak demand is based on average peak weather conditions….”

Nothing more is said until we get to Page 126, where we find this single sentence: “Projected total internal demand is based on normal weather (50/50 distribution).”

This is then marked by Footnote 59, which in tiny print says: “Essentially, this means that there is a 50% probability that actual peak demand will be higher and a 50% probability that actual peak demand will be lower than the value provided for a given season/year.”

If there is a 50-50 chance that it will be colder each year, then it is virtually certain that it will be colder in the next ten. This is just like the probability of getting heads in ten coin tosses. In fact, it is likely to be colder than average roughly half the time.

Moreover, given the way weather works, it is likely to be a lot colder than average, like 20 degrees colder, or brutally cold, as they say. So, NERC is quietly and systematically ignoring the threat of killing cold. Over 200 people were killed in the Texas blackouts.

Getting back to the Executive Summary quote, it is amusing that a period of low wind is called an “energy-constrained condition”. I guess every night is an energy-constrained condition for solar.

This is a techno-nonsensical way of saying renewables are unreliable. And the so-called “energy transition policy” is calling for extremely rapid growth in renewables, which is certain to make the grid unreliable, or should I say energy-constrained?

It is, therefore, shocking to see almost no renewables growth in NERC’s ten year projections. This effectively hides what is actually extreme risk.

Here is a painfully simple example. For PJM, NERC projects that nameplate wind generating capacity will increase from 1,963 MW in 2024 to a mere 2,601 MW in 2033. This is a trivial ten-year increase of 638 MW.

Virginia’s 2,600 MW offshore wind project due to come online in 2025 alone dwarfs that estimate. But Virginia’s official ten-year offshore wind target is a whopping 10,000 MW. New Jersey’s is even bigger at 11,000 MW, while Maryland and Delaware have smaller but still big targets. There is similar little growth nonsense for solar where Virginia is swamped by 780 square miles of proposed projects and growing.

In short, NERC’s ten-year projection of almost no growth in renewables is ridiculous. So is their deliberately ignoring the extremely cold weather that is certain to occur.

In reality, NERC’s long-term reliability assessment hides the risks it claims to elucidate. These risks are deadly and they must be faced.

The post NERC ducks extreme cold grid threats appeared first on CFACT.