From Watts Up With That?
Trees, Clouds, and the Unsettling Truth about Climate Science
In a recent revelation from the international CLOUD project at the nuclear research center CERN, researchers have identified sesquiterpenes—gaseous hydrocarbons released by plants—as a pivotal factor in cloud formation. This study, published in the journal Science Advances, might just be the wrench in the works for those who have long touted the notion of “settled” climate science.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been confidently projecting that the global climate will warm by 1.5 to 4.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Yet, these projections are riddled with uncertainties. For instance, in a worst-case scenario, the temperature could swing anywhere between 3.3 to 5.7 degrees Celsius. Such a vast range hardly inspires confidence.
The root of these uncertainties? A glaring lack of understanding of the intricate processes occurring in our atmosphere. The CLOUD project, in its quest to demystify these processes, has been delving deep into the enigma of cloud formation.
Clouds, as it turns out, are not just fluffy white entities in the sky. Their formation and behavior have profound implications for the planet’s temperature. While it’s known that clouds reflect solar radiation, cooling the earth’s surface, the exact mechanics of their formation remain elusive.
Aerosols, both natural and man-made, provide the condensation nuclei essential for cloud formation. However, a significant portion of these nuclei form in the air when gaseous molecules combine, turning into solids—a process known as “nucleation” or “new particle formation” (NPF).
While the role of anthropogenic gases like sulfur dioxide is somewhat-documented, the study has shed light on the underestimated influence of natural gases like sesquiterpenes. Despite being less prevalent than other substances, sesquiterpenes have a disproportionately large impact on cloud formation. In fact, they form ten times more particles than other organic substances at equivalent concentrations.
This study’s findings underscore the need to reconsider the role of sesquiterpenes in climate models, potentially rendering many existing models obsolete.
Conclusion:
For those who’ve been echoing the mantra that climate science is “settled” and beyond dispute, this study serves as a stark reminder of the complexities and unknowns still at play. It’s high time to question the wisdom of pouring vast sums of money into policies based on potentially flawed models. The discovery of sesquiterpenes’ role in cloud formation is a testament to the ever-evolving nature of climate science—a field that is far from settled.
Source: How trees influence cloud formation (2023, September 8).
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