Al Jazeera: We are โ€œgreeningโ€ ourselves to extinction

Apocalypse investors are pushing fake climate solutions on us that are making climate change worse.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

h/t rhs; Greens are waking up that many of their corporate and political friends are greedy unscrupulous profiteers, who have no intention of genuinely attempting to reduce CO2 emissions.

We are โ€˜greeningโ€™ ourselves to extinction

Apocalypse investors are pushing fake climate solutions on us that are making climate change worse.

Vijay Kolinjivadi
Vijay Kolinjivadi is a post-doctoral fellow at the Institute of Development Policy at the University of Antwerp.

Published On 29 Jan 202329 Jan 2023

More than a decade ago, investment experts James Altucher and Douglas Sease wrote a book for the Wall Street Journal called Investing in the Apocalypse. They argued that the end of the world is a profitable opportunity for those who know how to โ€œfade the fearโ€, as everyone else panics. They maintained that when disaster strikes, investors should approach it with the rationale that โ€œno matter how bad things seem, they really arenโ€™t that badโ€.

Well before the COVID-19 pandemic, they advised investing in big pharmaceutical companies as a strategy to reap dividends from global pandemics. They also encouraged putting money into renewable energy systems while ramping up oil production.

โ€ฆ

What is worse, governments and corporations have teamed up to turn the apocalypse into a money-making opportunity. They have rushed to put forward false solutions to the climate crisis: from the push to replace fuel-engine vehicles with electric ones, to so-called climate-smart agriculture, to protected areas for nature conservation and massive tree planting projects for carbon offsets.

All this trickery is called โ€œgreeningโ€ and it is designed to profit off of climate fears, not stop climate change. While guaranteeing high returns, this deception is tantamount to the genocide of the hundreds of millions of people who will perish from the effects of climate change within the next century because things are that bad.

โ€ฆ

In the neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo, the guards of a national park funded by the US and German governments have also engaged in violent attacks on the Indigenous Batwa people living in its territory. A 2022 report by Minority Rights has produced evidence that at least 20 members of the community have been killed and at least 15 women raped during forced eviction campaigns.

โ€ฆRead more: https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/opinions/2023/1/29/greening-ourselves-to-extinction

In the full article above the Al Jazeera author cites some of the horrible carbon credit schemes in Africa, claims of armed militias are allegedly being sent into forests to commit atrocities, to drive off the locals, and help prepare forests to qualify as an uninhabited woodlands suitable for producing carbon credits.

Trump hating film producer Michael Moore also suggested corporations and politicians have betrayed the green movement in 2020. From memory his documentary โ€œPlanet of the Humansโ€ apparently started out as an attempt to expose fossil fuel suppression of green technology, but ended up accusing a number of green leaders of being dishonest and unscrupulously greedy profiteers.

The question is, will the few remaining green true believers be able to do anything to stop the planetary exploitation being committed in their name?

History suggests the answer is no.

Take biofuel. Even Greenpeace openly hates current generation biofuel these days, but they seem helpless to stop it.

Why we oppose the governmentโ€™s biofuels mandate | GUEST POST

Jake Roos
3 August 2022

Jake Roos from Donโ€™t Burn Our Future explains the damage caused by growing crops for fuel and what the Government should be doing instead. 

If the governmentโ€™s plans come to fruition, from 1 April 2023, our future could go up in flames. Unless we change course, a new law will require domestic fuel suppliers to add a percentage of biofuel to petrol and diesel.

Mandating biofuels might sound like great news. It sounds like our government is doing something to reduce New Zealandโ€™s dependence on fossil fuels and reduce CO2 emissions. But sadly not: just because something has โ€˜bioโ€™ in its name, doesnโ€™t mean itโ€™s green.

The โ€˜sustainable biofuels mandateโ€™ is not green. However well intentioned, the mandate will worsen climate impacts and further increase our food and fuel costs.

โ€ฆRead more: https://www.greenpeace.org/aotearoa/story/why-we-oppose-the-governments-biofuels-mandate-guest-post/

Of course, many greens once supported biofuel, but thanks to some vigorous website edits you would struggle to find evidence of that these days.

What went wrong? In 2008 biofuel caused a major global starvation crisis. If you didnโ€™t notice, that is because you live in a rich country. But the problem was very real indeed, for people who live in poor countries.

Secret report: biofuel caused food crisis

Internal World Bank study delivers blow to plant energy drive

Aditya Chakrabortty
@chakrabortty
Fri 4 Jul 2008 04.35 AEST

Biofuels have forced global food prices up by 75% โ€“ far more than previously estimated โ€“ according to a confidential World Bank report obtained by the Guardian.

The damning unpublished assessment is based on the most detailed analysis of the crisis so far, carried out by an internationally-respected economist at global financial body.

The figure emphatically contradicts the US governmentโ€™s claims that plant-derived fuels contribute less than 3% to food-price rises. It will add to pressure on governments in Washington and across Europe, which have turned to plant-derived fuels to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and reduce their dependence on imported oil.

Senior development sources believe the report, completed in April, has not been published to avoid embarrassing President George Bush.

โ€œIt would put the World Bank in a political hot-spot with the White House,โ€ said one yesterday.

โ€ฆRead more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/jul/03/biofuels.renewableenergy

Despite the hideous and ongoing problems caused by biofuel, the pressure on food prices, you can still buy E10 or E15 or whatever at your local gas station โ€“ in my opinion because big money got involved, and because politicians are wary of upsetting those voters and donors who are profiting from biofuel mandates.

If greens cannot stop the biofuel juggernaut many of them once supported, they are not going to stop any of the other in my opinion fake green schemes which they helped launch. Only time and public outrage has any chance of limiting or stopping the ugly money making schemes climate activists and green idealists helped to inflict on the world, but are now powerless to stop.

Feb. 1, 2023 Arctic Ice Lagging in Bering and Barents

In January, most of the Arctic ocean basins are frozen over, and so the growth of ice extent slows down.ย 

From Science Matters

Byย Ron Clutz

In January, most of the Arctic ocean basins are frozen over, and so the growth of ice extent slows down.  According to MASIE January on average adds 1.255M km2, and this year it was 1.205M.  However, February started with a deficit of  246k km2 under the 17 year average.  The few basins that can grow ice this time of year tend to fluctuate and alternate waxing and waning, which appears as a see saw pattern in these images.

The last two weeks of January 2023 Arctic ice extents waffled with little growth, resulting in a deficit to average of 385k km2, or ~3% of total NH ice extent. The graph below shows the ice recovery for Januaryย  2023, the 17-year average and several recent years.

The graph (cyan) shows end of January 2023 a 385k km2 deficit to average, with little accumulation since Jan. 18.ย  2023 is comparable to 2021, and slightly higher than 2018.ย  SII (Sea Ice Index) dropped well below MASIE this month showing 327k km2 lower extent than MASIE yesterday.

January Ice Growth Despite See Saws in Atlantic and Pacific

As noted above, this time of year the Arctic adds ice on the fringes since the central basins are already frozen over.  The animation above shows the Okhotsk (upper left) and Bering (lower left) see saw.  Okhotsk doubled its extent to reach 95% of its last maximum, while Bering waffled up and down, ending the month ~100k km2 higher and 62% of its max.

On the right, Atlantic side Barents at the top fluctuated and added `150k km2, ending at 49% of its max.  On the lower right, Baffin Bay, and Greenland Sea (center right) show another see saw.  Greenland Sea waffled with little extent added, remaining at 89% of max, while Baffin Bay steadily added 370k km2 to reach 70% of maximum.

The table below presents ice extents in the Arctic regions for day 31 (Jan. 31) compared to the 17 year average and 2018.

Region2023031Day 31 Average2023-Ave.20180312023-2018
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere1399698114382814-38583313792271204710
 (1) Beaufort_Sea107096610703136541070445521
 (2) Chukchi_Sea9660069659703696597135
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea1087137108705483108712018
 (4) Laptev_Sea897845897821238978450
 (5) Kara_Sea926860918191866889536331497
 (6) Barents_Sea390711580354-189643481947-91236
 (7) Greenland_Sea68790060256685334501411186490
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence12677601335679-679191406903-139142
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago85484385334215018531091734
 (10) Hudson_Bay12609031260762141126083866
 (11) Central_Arctic31925683211378-1881031848177751
 (12) Bering_Sea521005655768-134763382207138798
 (13) Baltic_Sea3309664178-3108341714-8618
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk806160819543-13383704398101762

The table shows that most of the deficit to average (2.7%) appears in Bering and Barents seas, with smaller deficits in Baffin Bay and Okhotsk.ย  These four peripheral regions are the only remaining regions with additional ice extent to add.

The polar bears have a Valentine Dayโ€™s wish for Arctic Ice.

And Arctic Ice loves them back, returning every year so the bears can roam and hunt for seals.

Footnote:

Seesaw accurately describes Arctic ice in another sense:  The ice we see now is not the same ice we saw previously.  It is better to think of the Arctic as an ice blender than as an ice cap, explained in the post The Great Arctic Ice Exchange.

Serious- Calls For Full Investigation As Irish Death Rate Spikes

We need a full investigation into a spike in the number of deaths registered around the country in recent weeks.

From newstalk.com

By Michael Staines

We need a full investigation into a spike in the number of deaths registered around the country in recent weeks.

An analysis of RIP.ie death notices published in the Irish Examiner this morning shows there were 9,718 death notices published in the eight weeks up until January 25th.

That is up 20% on the same time last year, when 8,075 were published, and a 19.5% increase on the same period to January 25th, 2021.

The figure in 2019, before the pandemic began, was nearly 3,000 lower than this year.

‘Very, very serious’

On Newstalk Breakfast this morning, Aontรบ leader Peadar Tรณibรญn said the figures point towards โ€œsomething very, very serious that is happeningโ€.

โ€œThe key point is this – and this is really, really important – the Government needs to investigate this very, very clearly, in a scientific fashion,โ€ he said.

โ€œWe need to get rid of the word maybe.

โ€œWhen we see death rates 3,000 higher in a small six-week period than they were in a six-week period pre-COVID, we canโ€™t have the Government standing idly by.โ€

Investigation

Deputy Tรณibรญn said we need to know exactly why this is happening โ€“ warning that theories are not good enough in a situation like this.

โ€œWhen there was an elevated death rate in 2020, the Government closed down the country,โ€ he said.

โ€œHere we have an elevated death rate and there are crickets coming from the Government in terms of real scientific analysis.โ€

The Meath TD said the increased death rate appears to be mirrored across Europe, with Eurostat figures showing increases in both July and August last year.

Among the theories being put forward are increases in flu and other respiratory illnesses this winter โ€“ and suggestions people are more vulnerable to certain conditions after recovering from COVID.

Lockdown

Deputy Tรณibรญn said the closure of health services during lockdown was likely a big factor.

โ€œDuring the COVID crisis, we argued strongly with the Government not to close cancer services or heart disease, stroke, mental health and other life and death services,โ€ he said.

โ€œThe Government reduced those services significantly at that time and we even had senior consultants on the radio saying there would be a tsunami of far more advanced cancers hitting the system because of these closures.

โ€œThere is no doubt in my mind that is having an effect on this.โ€

UK rates

Last week, the British House of Commons heard calls for an investigation into increasing death rate rates in the UK.

Some 17,381 deaths were registered in England and Wales in the seven days to January 13 โ€” some 2,837 above the UK average.

Trees could cut urban heatwave mortality by a third: Study

Planting more trees in urban areas to lower summertime temperatures could decrease deaths directly linked to hot weather and heatwaves by a third, researchers said Wednesday.

From Phys.org

Currently, just under 15 percent of urban environments in Europe, on average, are covered by some kind of foliage. A woman cools off in a fountain in central Rome.

Planting more trees in urban areas to lower summertime temperatures could decrease deaths directly linked to hot weather and heatwaves by a third, researchers said Wednesday.

Modeling found that increasing tree cover to 30 percent would shave off 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.7 degrees Fahrenheit) locally, on average, during hot summer months, they reported in The Lancet.

Of the 6,700 premature deaths attributed to higher temperatures in 93 European cities during 2015, one third could have been prevented, according to the findings.

Currently, just under 15 percent of urban environments in Europe, on average, are covered by some kind of foliage.

The study is the first to project the number of premature deaths due to higher temperatures in cities that could be prevented by additional tree cover, said lead author Tamara Iungman, a researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health.

“We already know that high temperatures in urban environments are associated with negative health outcomes, such as cardiorespiratory failure, hospital admission, and premature death,” she said in a statement.

“Our goal is to inform local policy and decision-makers about the benefits of strategically integrating green infrastructure into urban planning in order to promote more sustainable, resilient and healthy urban environments.”

Cities record higher temperatures than surrounding suburbs or countryside due to the so-called urban heat island effect.

This extra heat is caused primarily by a lack of vegetation, exhaust from air conditioning systems, along with dark-hued asphalt and building materials that absorb and trap warmth.

Climate change has already amplified the problem. Last year, Europe saw its hottest summer on record, and second warmest year.

A computer-generated image for the transformation of the emblematic Plaza de Espana in Madrid.

Health benefits

Heatwaves around the world are seeing record-breaking peaks, and have increased in duration in recent decades.

Today, cold conditions still cause more deaths in Europe than hot weather. But climate models project that heat-related illness and death will present a bigger burden to health services within a decade.

“This is becoming increasingly urgent as Europe experiences more extreme temperature fluctuations caused by climate change,” said Iungman.

The researchers estimated mortality rates for people over 20 years old between June and August 2015, accounting for 57 million inhabitants in total.

This data was analyzed in relation to daily average city temperatures in two modeling scenarios.

The first compared the city temperature with and without urban heat islands. The second simulating temperature reduction if tree cover was increased to 30 percent.

On average, the temperature in cities was 1.5C warmer during summer 2015 than in the surrounding countryside. The city with the highest differenceโ€”4.1Cโ€”was Cluj-Napoca, Romania.

Across all cities, 75 percent of the total population lived in areas at least one degree warmer, while 20 percent experienced temperatures at least two degrees higher.

Overall, cities with highest temperature-elated mortality rates were in southern and eastern Europe.

“This is an important piece of research,” commented Laurence Wainwright, a lecturer at the University of Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.

“Urban tree plantingโ€”on the right scale, in the right places, and under certain other conditionsโ€”likely leads to a modest-yet-real reduction in heat-related deaths in many urban areas.”

Earlier studies have shown that green spaces can have additional health benefits such as reducing cardiovascular disease, dementia and poor mental health, as well as improving cognitive functioning of children and the elderly.

More information: Cooling cities through urban green infrastructure: a health impact assessment of European cities, The Lancet (2023). DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)02585-5, www.thelancet.com/journals/lan โ€ฆ (22)02585-5/fulltext

Journal information: The Lancet 

Imagine there was a cheap way to save 2,000 people and cool cities but it didnโ€™t make anyone rich?

A new paper estimates that if we increased our tree canopy in cities to 30% we could cool our cities by nearly half a degree. Works better than a windmillโ€ฆ

By Jo Nova

A new paper estimates that if we increased our tree canopy in cities to 30% we could cool our cities by nearly half a degree. Works better than a windmillโ€ฆ

A new paper estimates that if we increased our tree canopy in cities to 30% we could cool our cities by nearly half a degree. Works better than a windmillโ€ฆ

Photo byย Maria Orlova

The trillion dollar global warming camp obsesses over 1.5ยฐC of heat, but the urban heat island has already made our cities 1.5ยฐC hotter than the countryside around them, and nobody gives a toss. Cities are where the lived human experience is for most of us, and despite the threat of that extreme heat made โ€œworse by climate changeโ€, no government does the obvious and sets a tree cover target. There are no Ministers of Regreening, and no carbon credits for suburbia. All weโ€™re getting is concrete bollards and  fifteen-minute-cities of pain.

In the green revolution instead of growing gum trees, people are cutting them down because they shade their solar panels. In our capital city they razed a majestic avenue of trees in order to add light rail. A true Green hates cars more than they like trees.

Urban flora not only cleans the air, it also reduces suicides,ย improves cardiac health, and reduces particulate pollution. One Canadian study estimated that living close toย green spaces even reduces all cause mortalityย and by a remarkable 8 to 12%. (Crouse et al 2017). Weโ€™ve known this for years but no one has organized an annual UN convention.

Greening our cities wonโ€™t change the global temperature, but it lays bare the hypocrisy

They say they are here to help but they pick the paths that make them money.

Trees could cut urban heatwave mortality by a third: study

Planting more trees in urban areas to lower summertime temperatures could decrease deaths directly linked to hot weather and heatwaves by a third, researchers said Wednesday.

Modeling found that increasing tree cover to 30 percent would shave off 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.7 degrees Fahrenheit) locally, on average, during hot summer months, they reported in The Lancet.

Of the 6,700 premature deaths attributed to higher temperatures in 93 European cities during 2015, one third could have been prevented, according to the findings.

On average, the temperature in cities was 1.5C warmer during summer 2015 than in the surrounding countryside. The city with the highest differenceโ€”4.1Cโ€”was Cluj-Napoca, Romania.

Earlier studies have shown that green spaces can have additional health benefits such as reducing cardiovascular disease, dementia and poor mental health, as well as improving cognitive functioning of children and the elderly.

REFERENCES

Cooling cities through urban green infrastructure: a health impact assessment of European cities, The Lancet (2023).

Crouse et al (2017) Urban greenness and mortality in Canadaโ€™s largest cities: a national cohort study, Lancet Planet Health, . 2017 Oct;1(7):e289-e297. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30118-3. Epub 2017 Oct 5.

Photo by Maria Orlova.

Heartland Institute Shipsย โ€˜Climate at a Glanceโ€™ย Book to Thousands of Teachers Across America

Book intended to be โ€œsupplementalโ€ to standard curricula and counter alarmist narrative with facts on the climate that reflect current data and researchย 

From Watts Up With That?

Book intended to be โ€œsupplementalโ€ to standard curricula and counter alarmist narrative with facts on the climate that reflect current data and research 

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, IL (February 2, 2023) โ€“ The Heartland Instituteโ€™s new book, Climate at a Glance for Teachers and Students: Facts on 30 Prominent Climate Topics, will be arriving in schools across the United States this week, giving more than 8,000 middle- and high-school science teachers the latest data and research on the climate.The 80-page book covers 30 climate topics often discussed in science classes, as well as among the general public and media, and provides the data to show the earth is not experiencing a climate crisis.

The book is designed to be easily utilized by teachers to integrate into their lesson plans with its breakdown into five sections: (1) The Atmosphere and Land, (2) The Sea and Ice, (3) Temperatures and Extreme Weather, (4) Humans and Animals, and (5) Scientific and Policy Controversies.

The data in the book โ€“ with footnotes in each chapter citing the sources โ€“ was compiled by authors Anthony Watts, senior fellow for environmental policy at The Heartland Institute who has worked as an on-air meteorologist since 1978; and James Taylor, president of The Heartland Institute who has been studying and communicating about climate and energy policy for Heartland for more than 20 years. The book was edited by H. Sterling Burnett, director of The Heartland Instituteโ€™s Arthur B. Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy and managing editor of Environment & Climate News.

Download a free digital copy of the book here. 

All three climate experts will be presenting at The Heartland Instituteโ€™s 15th International Conference on Climate Change in Orlando, Florida, Feb 23-25.

โ€œTeachers and students need a concise, scientifically compelling summary of the most frequently discussed climate change topics,โ€ said Heartland Institute President James Taylor. โ€œClimate at a Glance for Teachers and Students provides exactly that. Moreover, the summaries are the perfect format and length to be daily lessons or homework assignments.โ€

โ€œThe goal of this book is to present facts that are normally ignored or outright distorted by pundits and the mainstream media,โ€ said Heartland Institute Senior Fellow Anthony Watts. โ€œRealizing that the book would be attacked from the beginning, because it is counter to the ongoing climate narrative, every topic is factually referenced to government science agencies such as NOAA, and NASA, as well as peer-reviewed science publications. People reading these facts for the first time are likely to be shocked to discover that what theyโ€™ve been told was true, simply isnโ€™t.โ€

โ€œConcerning climate change, too many science classes have become laboratories of indoctrination, teaching students what to think about this important topic, rather than how to think about it and reason through it based on facts and using the scientific method,โ€ said H. Sterling Burnett, Ph.D., director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy at The Heartland Institute. โ€œWith this book, we are circumventing the normal channels of communication with students and teachers, which have been foreclosed to free debate about climate, and going directly to the source.โ€œProviding teachers with a concise, easily accessible, fact filled book about key climate topics โ€“ eschewing all rancor, ad hominem, and politics. Anyone who wants to understand the true state of climate science, based in government data and peer reviewed literature, rather than headlines and quickly thrown together white papers, should read Climate at a Glance,โ€ he said.

Among the facts in this book that counter common and false alarmist narratives about the climate:

Crop Production, p. 6: As the climate modestly warms, global crop yields have set new records almost every year. That is due, in part, to longer growing seasons and greater concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Floods, p. 10: The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports it has โ€œlow confidenceโ€ in climate change is impacting flooding. The annual cost of flood damage in the United States (per GDP) has declined significantly over the last nearly 120 years.
Snowpack, p. 12: Average North American snowpack extent is virtually the same as it was in the late 1960s, when U.S. satellite measurements began. There has been only a modest decline in Eurasian snowpack in recent years.
Coral Reefs, p. 24: Corals thrive in warm water, not cold water, and recent warming has allowed corals to expand their range. The primary causes of coral bleaching are not โ€œglobal warming,โ€ but sediment and agricultural chemical run offs.
Ocean Acidification, p. 32: Ocean water is not overly acidic with the pH of surface ocean waters falling by merely 0.1 pH units since 1850 and is still well above the neutral pH number of 7.
Sea-Level Rise, p. 36: Global sea levels have risen more than 400 feet since the beginning of the current interglacial period, as it does between ice ages. NASA satellite instruments, with readings dating back to 1993, show global sea levels rising at a pace of just 1.2 inches per decade with no sign that pace is accelerating.
Hurricanes, p. 41: The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found no increase in the frequency or severity of hurricanes despite modest warming.
U.S. Heat Waves, p. 49: The all-time high temperature records set in most states occurred in the first half of the 20th century. The heat waves of recent decades have been far less severe and frequent than they were in the 1930s.
U.S. Wildfires, p. 54: Even in the recent worst wildfire seasons, those fires typically burned one-fifth to half as much land as the standard wildfire seasons in the early 20th century.
Climate Refugees, p. 58: Despite much fear-mongering, a majority of the islands from which climate activists predicted would produce โ€œclimate refugeesโ€ due to sea-level rise have actually seen their landmass increase in recent decades. The United Nations confirms casualties linked to climate-related natural disasters have declined this century.
Polar Bears, p. 69: Polar bear populations have increased dramatically in recent decades despite claims to the contrary made in the media and among climate activists. Polar bears have thrived in much warmer climates than we are experiencing today.

For more information about this book distribution, or to interview the authors, please contact Vice President and Director of Communications Jim Lakely at jlakely@heartland.org or call/text 312-731-9364.



The Heartland Institute is a national free-market think tank founded in 1984 in Chicago and now located in Arlington Heights, Illinois. The Economist magazine called Heartland โ€œthe worldโ€™s most prominent think-tank promoting skepticism about man-made climate change.โ€

Heartland has organized 15 International Conferences on Climate Change and published the 3,000-page Climate Change Reconsidered series of volumes by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change.  

The Heartland Institute is a national nonprofit organization founded in 1984 and headquartered in Arlington Heights, Illinois. Its mission is to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems. For more information, visit our website or call 312/377-4000.

German Drives Tesla 800 Kilometers To Poland: โ€œNever Again Electric Car!โ€ โ€ฆโ€Makes No Senseโ€

Electric cars still falling short on long-haul tripsโ€ฆโ€you need to plan lots of extra timeโ€โ€ฆโ€an absolute no goโ€
His conclusion: โ€œNever again electric car!โ€

From NoTricksZone

Byย P Gosselinย onย 1. February 2023

Electric cars still falling short on long-haul tripsโ€ฆโ€you need to plan lots of extra timeโ€โ€ฆโ€an absolute no goโ€

What follows is a written personal experience on a trip using an electric car.  German Anton B. reports on his journey in a Tesla rental car, where he travelled from Hanover, Germany, to the 2023 World Handball Championship in Poland last month.

Image cropped fromย Tesla website

His conclusion: โ€œNever again electric car!โ€

โ€œHis assessment is devastating,โ€ reports the online Berliner Zeitung (BZ) here.

According to Anton B., the trip of course had to be planned differently due to the limited charging possibilities. Recharging and refueling are things that normal internal combustion engine car drivers never need to worry about.

Depending on the model, Tesla cars are claimed to be able to travel 500 km or more on a single charge, thus theoretically the 800-kilometer trip to Poland should be possible with just one single charging stop halfway. But that would not be the case, as Anton B. (28) describes in the BZ.

Already after just 250 kilometers, the car had lost 90% of its charge, forcing a 50-minute long recharging between Magdeburg and Leipzig. The second recharging was needed in Dresden, where the charging time was โ€œmuch longerโ€.

โ€œIn the end, we were on the road for almost eleven hours, and we spent almost two and a half of them just charging. We missed the 3:30 p.m. match,โ€ With the combustion engine, we would certainly have made the trip in eight and a half hours with a short break,โ€ Anton B. reports in the BZ.

Anton B. also describes the hassles of not being able to charge at the Tesla stations and having to charge at general ones, โ€œwhich cost money and more time.โ€ There it took the battery over an hour and a half to charge. According to Anton B., you need to plan lots of extra time when travelling long distances.

He also described Teslaโ€™s assistance systems as โ€œundevelopedโ€ and whรญch caused the vehicle โ€ to automatically brake on the highway even though no other car was visible aheadโ€.

No heat

But things got even worse on the trip back to Hannover: โ€œWe had to make three big stops to charge for an hour and a half each time at a non-Tesla station.โ€ Next the heating stopped working โ€“ โ€œnot a nice experience at -2 degreesโ€.

Anton B. concludes that a Tesla is not at all suited for long trips, rather it is only practical for short distances around the city, where there are enough charging points.

โ€œFor longer distances, especially in winter, an e-car is an absolute no-go for me as of now,โ€ he reports in the BZ. โ€œSuch a vehicle cannot keep up at all with diesel or normal gasoline engines.โ€

Makes no sense

Anton B. also noted that the energy for the Tesla was twice as expensive as the fuel for a conventional gasoline car. โ€œThese conditions mean that it makes no sense at all for me to drive such a vehicle; instead, I will rely on internal combustion engines for as long as it is possible.โ€

Read entire article here at the BZ.

The Dangerous Fantasy of Scotlandโ€™s Net Zero Energy Transition

This article reviews its major themes and their implications, and considers briefly the probability of success of the Scottish Government implementing it.

From dailysceptic.org

By RICHARD LYON

Suppose that Scotlandโ€™s CO2 emissions fell tomorrow to zero, i.e., that, at midnight, the country ceased to exist. Then according to the โ€œModel for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Changeโ€ (MAGICC), based on the latest IPCC climate models, the reduction in the Earthโ€™s temperature in 2100 would beโ€ฆundetectable.

Motivated by the moral necessity and urgency of this goal, the Scottish Government is proposing a novel energy policy โ€“ its โ€œEnergy Strategy and Just Transition Planโ€.

This article reviews its major themes and their implications, and considers briefly the probability of success of the Scottish Government implementing it.

In 2022, due to an insufficient quantity of wind and sun, Scotlandโ€™s current collection of wind and solar energy-scavenging devices failed to generate about 70% of their nameplate capacity. Recent exhaustive statistical and econometric analysis of wind generation in Scotland by Edinburgh University shows that it is uneconomic and destined for taxpayer bailout. Under the Scottish Governmentโ€™s novel energy strategy, wind and solar energy-scavenging devices are to be greatly expanded.

Hydrogen, an energy carrier that squanders in waste-heat a gigawatt of power generation for every gigawatt it carries, is elevated in the Scottish Governmentโ€™s understanding of energy to the category of a fuel, and also greatly expanded.

Hydrocarbon and nuclear โ€“ actual fuels โ€“ provide the energy to manufacture and endlessly replace wind turbines and solar panels. They also, in Scotland, provide the power sources that run under all conditions to ensure continuity of energy supply during Scotlandโ€™s frequent sunless and windless conditions. These are to be discontinued.

Like all advanced economies, Scotland cannot tolerate even a small measure of power supply fluctuation. Without firm dispatchable thermal standby generation capacity to smooth supply fluctuation, the eventual daily around 40GW amplitude power fluctuation resulting from the proposed expansion of weather-dependent electrical generation must be adapted for use in some other way. This will be provided by some form of 180-plus day, grid-scale electricity storage โ€“ a technical challenge for which no precedent exists, and therefore no cost estimate is available.

Grid scale battery storage technology doesnโ€™t exist. The Scottish Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan imagines that it will be developed.

Converting surplus energy to hydrogen for storage and use at grid scale is unprecedented, and fraught with risk.

Fifty per cent of the proposed new intermittent generation capacity, installed at a capital cost of around ยฃ26 billion, is to be wasted in the conversion process.

Hydrogen embrittles pipework, renders conventional valves ineffective and, unlike domestic gas, self-ignites under catastrophic decompression. Quantifying the risks of transporting it in bulk on Scottish roads and deploying it as a substitute for domestic gas in Scotlandโ€™s densely populated housing estates might be an exciting 10-year research project at the U.K. Governmentโ€™s Spadeadam industrial hazard testing facility (โ€œthe remoteness of the area is key to their operationsโ€ โ€“ Wikipedia).

But, informed by what the Scottish Government claims is the need for โ€œthe fastest possibleโ€ transition, it prefers to bypass thorough safety testing, and to impose live hydrogen trials on Scotlandโ€™s citizens. Hydrocarbon gas is to be phased out of Scottish homes from 2030.

Energy densities in energy storage sites located next to Scotlandโ€™s towns and cities required by the Scottish Governmentโ€™s reckless abandonment of thermal standby generation capacity will be measured in millions of tonnes of TNT โ€“ a risk for which 12-foot thick reinforced concrete containment domes are installed around nuclear facilities to manage. These risks are entirely unrecognised by Scotlandโ€™s current planning processes (or citizens).

The cost of adaptive storage, the cost of the new transmission and distribution infrastructure required by dramatically increased electrification of Scotlandโ€™s relatively sparsely populated areas, and the cost of Carbon Capture, are not factored into current estimates of Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE). These are vast. Grid-scale battery storage, for example, has an implied cost measured in trillions of pounds, and drives LCOE from ยฃ50/MWh to over ยฃ600/MWh.

Apparently unaware of the role of nuclear and gas in maintaining continuity of supply, and the prohibitive cost of electricity storage as a substitute, the Scottish Government confidently demands that the U.K. Government โ€œbreak the link between the price of electricity and the cost of gas to help realise the benefits of the low costs [sic] of renewable electricityโ€.

The policy proposal cites a number of other benefits that it thinks will accrue in addition to the negligible reduction in the Earthโ€™s temperature.

Electric vehicles canโ€™t plough snow or fields, harvest corn, empty buckets, excavate ore, raise wind-turbine masts, or perform any other economic task for which โ€˜gruntโ€™ is required. Notwithstanding, from 2030, diesel and petrol engines will be prohibited. Car kilometers are to be โ€œreducedโ€ โ€“ possibly by fining us if we travel from our home more than a permitted distance.

A child in the Democratic Republic of Congo mining the cobalt needed for the Scottish Governmentโ€™s Just Transition to โ€˜clean energyโ€™

The Scottish Government will impose catastrophic environmental damage on the non-OECD countries where millions of tonnes of toxic water and ores are processed to manufacture the EV batteries it is mandating. It will overlook the human rights violations endemic to Chinaโ€™s โ€˜clean energy industryโ€™. These will have the benefit of promoting what it calls โ€œA Just Transitionโ€ โ€“ supposedly, a socialist framework for ensuring โ€œa fairer, greener future for allโ€.

Our security of supply is to be further enhanced by transferring energy generation from domestically produced oil and gas to mechanically unreliable, weather-dependent energy-scavenging devices containing millions of points of failure that are contingent on the supply of rare resources controlled by China โ€“ which the U.S. states it will declare war on if it invades Taiwan.

These weather-dependent energy-scavenging devices require oil for, amongst many other things, the manufacture of their exotic advanced materials. A leading energy consultancy records the collapse in 2020 to an 80-year low of replacement oil discovery volumes, and estimates that Western oil firms now have around 15 years of remaining economic oil reserves. It is under these circumstances that the Scottish Government is further enhancing the security of Scotlandโ€™s energy supply by discontinuing onshore and offshore conventional and unconventional oil and gas exploration.

To reinforce this enhancement, noting โ€œthe damage done by the deindustrialisation of central belt communities in the 1980sโ€, the Scottish Government is irreversibly disbanding the North Eastโ€™s oil and gas industry communities and, with them, their 50 years of institutional knowledge of oil and gas operations.

These will be replaced with communities based on livelihoods sustained by a โ€œclean energy industryโ€. The growth of this imaginary industry has been funded with the imaginary capital (a.k.a. โ€œquantitative easingโ€) excreted in the response โ€“ ironically โ€“ to the energy contraction that triggered the ongoing 2008 Great Financial Crash. During this time, U.K. national debt has risen from 60% to over 100% of Gross Domestic Product, exceeded only by the public sector pension deficit (a proxy for the replacement of real industries in the global economy by imaginary ones), which has risen to more than ยฃ2 trillion.

As evidence of the sustainability of the policy of funding imaginary industries through the indefinite expansion of imaginary capital (for which, like much of this policy, no precedent exists in human history), the Scottish Government informs us that it has already allocated ยฃ5 billion of its record budget deficit to what it refers to as โ€œthe Net Zero Economyโ€.

Winter excess death in the UKโ€™s cold Northern European climate is already around 25,000 a year. Any prolonged interruption of winter energy supply created by the failure of this policy, or further escalation of cost, will plausibly result in the deaths of thousands more of our most vulnerable fellow citizens. The magnitude and uncertainty of the implied costs, coupled to the scale of the energy contraction that this policy deliberately seeks to accelerate, could trigger the collapse of our financial system.

Irreversible impairment of either our energy or financial systems would have a catastrophic impact on the welfare of Scotlandโ€™s citizens. Yet few have expressed any desire, much less informed consent, for risk on the scale proposed for such little benefit.

Yet the project, representing a scope of unprecedented scale, cost, pace and technical uncertainty, will be overseen by a Government that is currently struggling to procure two relatively modest ferries for less than the cost that other governments can procure 34 ferries โ€“ again, ironically due in large part to cost overruns associated with the attempt to employ novel technologies to reduce CO2 emissions. As evidence of the extent to which the Scottish Government and its advisers have become unmoored from physical reality by the climate catastrophe hypothesis, itโ€™s a document that is fascinating to read, and alarming to contemplate.

After reflecting on it, you may care to offer your feedback, either to the department that compiled it, or your political representative, or on social media.

Richard Lyon is a former senior oil and gas operations manager with 35 years of international experience and academic qualifications in electrical engineering and power systems, petroleum engineering, and energy economics. He maintains the Substack newsletter the State of Britain and can be contacted via LinkedIn.

Glaciers And Ice Sheets: Here Today and Here Tomorrow

How often do the climate alarmists tell us that few glaciers still exist because of (imaginary) global warming and those that remain are rapidly melting away?

The carbon-sense.com

Byย Dr. John Happs

How often do the climate alarmists tell us that few glaciers still exist because of (imaginary) global warming and those that remain are rapidly melting away?  Not surprisingly, the alarmists, particularly those from the media and vested interest groups, always point to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) computer model projections, referring to one in particularโ€“the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5.)

Even the political/ideological IPCC has sensibly branded RCP8.5 as โ€œHighly Unlikelyโ€

So, what are the glacier numbers?

  1. There are more than 200,000 alpine/valley (land-based) glaciers and many others stemming from the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland.
  2. Glaciers have advanced, retreated and halted many times over the last 400,000 years being influenced not only by temperature but also by other factors, such as wind, precipitation, altitude, latitude, aspect, topography and slope angle.

Global temperature is often promoted, usually by naรฏve climate alarmists, as the only important input into glacier formation, growth and retreat yet, in very dry parts of Antarctica, where low temperatures are seemingly ideal for glacier growth, the small amount of net annual precipitation results in glaciers growing very slowly, or even diminishing in size.

Glaciers can also be influenced by sublimation or the transition of a substance directly from the solid to the gas phase. Glaciers can experience this process resulting in the โ€œevaporationโ€ of ice, exacerbated by wind action. Sublimation can be seen in the way that ice cubes left in the freezer will shrink over time.

More than 18,000 glaciers have been identified across 50 World Heritage sites but this represents less than 10% of the Earthโ€™s glaciated area. The media, climate activists and vested interest groups like to argue that all glaciers are receding because global temperature is increasing. Not surprisingly, many glaciers have been retreating since we emerged from the Little Ice Age (1250-1850), a time when many farms and houses across Scandinavia were destroyed by advancing glaciers between the 14th and 19th centuries.

Continue reading here:ย 

https://papundits.wordpress.com/2023/01/24/glaciers-and-ice-sheets-here-today-and-here-tomorrow/

The Golden Toadโ€™s Tale

Sometimes, a dried-up, dessicated, perhaps even mummified cynic can still be disappointed by ecologists. Ecology, as I am fond of saying, is mostly common sense. But common sense is all too often lacking.

From Climate Scepticism

By JIT

Sometimes, a dried-up, dessicated, perhaps even mummified cynic can still be disappointed by ecologists. Ecology, as I am fond of saying, is mostly common sense. But common sense is all too often lacking.

โ€œTeh Scienceโ€ is not science at all, but a preferred explanation that is impervious to facts. Sometimes its answer might be true. Sometimes it isnโ€™t. But the average punter cannot know the difference, thanks to the way alternative explanations bounce off Teh Scienceโ€™s iron umbrella.

What has brought on this sudden attack of bitterness, you ask. Well, I finally decided to start to delve, timorously, into the IPCCโ€™s AR6. One of the first things I wanted to look at was what AR6 said about the extinction of the golden toad from the Monteverde cloud forest preserve in Costa Rica (and, because this was its only home, the world). This was a tale I covered very briefly in Denierland. I set out the allegation as follows:

โ€œClimate claims the golden toadโ€ โ€“ BBC, 1999.

โ€œEven with temperature rises of 0.7C, some animals have already been lost โ€“ such as the golden toad that lives in the cool mountains of Costa Ricaโ€ฆโ€ โ€“ Suzanne Goldenberg, The Guardian, 12 Feb 2010.

Last seen in the 1980s high in Costa Ricaโ€™s cloud forest, declining from 1500 individuals to 1 in a single year at the known location. At the time, ecologists knew the golden toad was exceptionally rare, but there was still hope that it would be re-found in some out-of-the-way spot. Such hopes have now faded.

The key year of 1987 was exceptionally dry, leading to the toadโ€™s demise.

The real cause I described thusly:

A paper in 2010 identified no trends in rainfall in the affected site. Instead, the blame for the toadโ€™s demise was placed on an introduced fungus, Batrachochytrium. In dry years, the concentration of amphibians in fewer pools would have enabled the fungus to spread easily.

โ€œOur results indicate that the chytrid pathogen emergence in plethodontid salamanders in Mexico and Guatemala, and in salamanders and frogs at Monteverde, Costa Rica, is coincident with the amphibian community collapse and extinctions that occurred at these localities.โ€ โ€“ Cheng et al, 2011.

โ€œโ€ฆthose responsible for collecting amphibians, their equipment and associated activities would have to be the means of [Batrachochytrium] introduction.โ€ โ€“ Fisher & Garner, 2007.

It was a case of case closed (as well as a big fat โ€œouchโ€) as far as I was concerned. So how did AR6 describe the golden toadโ€™s demise?

Two terrestrial and freshwater species have become extinct in the wild, with climate change implicated as a key driver. The cloud forest-restricted golden toad (Incilius periglenes) was extinct by 1990 in a nature preserve in Costa Rica, driven by successive extreme droughts. This occurred in the absence of chytridiomycosis infection, caused by the fungal pathogen Bd [Batrachochytrium], verified during field censuses of golden toad populations in the process of extinction as well as genetic analyses of museum specimens, although Bd was present in other frog species in the region (medium evidence, high agreement) (Pounds et al., 1999; Pounds et al., 2006; Puschendorf et al., 2006; Richards-Hrdlicka, 2013).AR6 WGII Chapter 2, p220

Never mind Batrachochytrium dendrobatis, it was all about the climate-induced droughts. I was somewhat sceptical that the extinction of the golden toad had been characterised accurately in AR6, to say the least. Of course there is always the possibility that I have an iron umbrella myself, impervious to the data that says it was climate what dunnit. So I decided to look at some of the literature, including recent stuff.

The first article I read was a 2020 piece by Jeffrey Coleman in the Bulletin of the Chicago Herpetological Society. Coleman goes through all the different hypotheses relating to the golden toadโ€™s extinction, until:

โ€ฆthe fungal disease known as chytridiomycosis, as well as changing climate, is currently considered the most probable cause of the declines of A. varius and I. periglenesโ€ฆColeman 2020

So climate change has not been let off the hook, but it seems that the evidence has to be twisted into pretzels in order to keep it on the charge sheet; it might have driven the getaway car, but it didnโ€™t fire the gun: that was done by the fungal pathogen called Bd by those too lazy to type it out or to remember what it stands for.

Pretzel Logic

Below I am going to deal with the first explanation how climate change wiped out the golden toad. That is perhaps now a straw man, because the explanation has evolved. You might say it has wriggled. No longer is it โ€œCarbon dioxide emissions caused climate change, which caused El Niรฑo, which caused a drought and the toads died.โ€ Now it is โ€œCarbon dioxide emissions caused climate change, which caused the sudden appearance of a deadly new pathogen to wipe out the golden toad, when in the absence of climate change but the presence of the pathogen, it would have been fine, so there, shut up denier!โ€ Or words to that effect.

It turns out that far from warmer temperatures favouring the pathogen as we might expect by the enthusiasm for the climate-Bd nexus theory, they actually kill it. Bd instead thrives when it is cool:

Temporal (seasonal) and spatial studies documenting the prevalence and intensity of Bd and localities of disease outbreaks are in general agreement with the hypothesis that Bd has a predilection for cooler temperatures. However, although Bd is known in the tropical Andes at altitudes of 5348 m, where temperature minima fall to โˆ’13.5 โ—ฆC and diurnal variability may reach 30 โ—ฆC, it has been hypothesized that at extreme altitudes where temperature maxima fall beneath the recognized envelope for optimal Bd growth, amphibians may be afforded a refuge from fatal chytridiomycosis.Fisher et al 2009 (references removed for clarity).

But warm and dry weather drives amphibians into a more โ€œcontagiousโ€ distribution (clumped, that is), which encourages the fungusโ€™s spread. I will quote directly from Coleman 2020 to explain the pretzel logic version:

The chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, put forth in light of the pattern of A. varius [Atelopus varius, the harlequin frog] declines, posits that the lowlands are frequently too warm for the fungus during the day and the highlands too cool for it at night. Vertical thermal profiles have suggested a moist adiabatic lapse rate whereby the drop in temperature with increasing elevation had lessened in the years leading to this speciesโ€™ most intense declines. This daytime cooling in tandem with nighttime warming increases disease development rate, and most extinctions have had occurred in places where the minimum temperature is shifting toward the growth optimum for Bd.Coleman 2020

The nights are warmer and the days are cooler. Bd loves it, is the theory. Climate change has led to a sort of Goldilocksโ€˜ porridge. Now letโ€™s go back to the IPCCโ€™s position, which, remember, deletes Bd from the theory altogether. The extinction

โ€ฆoccurred in the absence of chytridiomycosis infection, caused by the fungal pathogen Bd, verified during field censuses of golden toad populations in the process of extinctionโ€ฆ

The extinction occurred in or before 1990. The causal agent was describedโ€ฆ in 1999 by Longcore et al. (It was first identified in 1997.) How are these field censuses to have detected the undescribed fungus? Visible signs of infestation, you might think, along the lines of The Last of Us. But toads afflicted by Bd donโ€™t end up with a sporocarp growing out of their heads. In fact, there are few external signs until infection is severe, and post-mortems donโ€™t reveal how the fungus killed the host. The infection is skin deep, but that can be enough for it to be lethal.

Chytridiomycosis is notable for an overall lack of disease pathologies: Metamorphosed amphibians infected with Bd typically exhibit epidermal hyperplasia and hyperkeratosis, and possibly upregulated skin shedding, but only rarely exhibit any lesions visible to the naked eye.Fisher et al 2009

The authors of AR6 also note the analysis of museum specimens. They cite four studies in support of their paragraph, of which the most recent is Richards-Hrdlicka (2013). What did Richards-Hrdlicka do? She found that preserved specimens of the golden toad collected between 1967 and 1982 all tested negative for Bd. Now Iโ€™ll just let you cogitate on that for the space of a carriage return.

How does Richards-Hrdlicka explain her results? Was it that the fungus was below the detection limit, or was it that

โ€ฆBd was absent from the samples, because the specimens were collected prior to the presumptive emergence and documentation of Bd in Monteverde.Richards-Hrdlicka 2013

To put it another way: is it surprising that the specimens collected in 1982 tested negative, when the sudden extinction occurred after 1987? In fact, had these specimens tested positive, it would have thrown out the Bd theory altogether, and accompanied it with a shout of โ€œAnd donโ€™t come back, loser!โ€

Richards-Hrdlickaโ€™s results are 180 degrees from the way the AR6 authors have described them. They support the Bd hypothesis, not the โ€œclimateโ€ hypothesis. Itโ€™s as if I allege a murder victim has been poisoned by strychnine, and your expert witness re-analyses a stored blood sample to prove an absence of strychnine in the victim five years before the murder.

And now for an ecology lesson. Remember, ecology is common sense most of the time. What do we know about amphibians that return to pools and ponds to spawn? Why do they do what they do? Why grow legs and lungs, shed tails and gills, and abandon their watery nursery? Why not stay whre they are, like fish? Well, we can use our own common or garden frog as an archetype of our amphibian friends. Frogs become terrestrial so that they can move. Ponds and pools are isolated in the landscape to various degrees, and they always end up becoming unsuitable eventually. They silt up, become choked with leaves, shaded by trees, acidic and anoxic, and finally dry up altogether. If our froggy friends did not leave and find pastures new, they would dry up altogether too. As well as the perennial worry that โ€œit might dry up,โ€ frogs have to contend with the chance that when rivers flood, ponds can be colonised by fish โ€“ and that effectively ends the survival chances of tadpoles. In some years, ponds dry up altogether, only to be replenished by winter rains. Sometimes they retain water all year. Sometimes they dry up before tadpoles have had the chance to grow two pairs of legs. In the lowlands, ponds that never dry up often end up with fish in them. This means that ponds that sometimes dry out are actually more suitable for frogs than ponds that never dry up.

But back to the hero of this tale: the golden toad. Restricted to a single locality, apparently measuring 4km2, discovered in 1963, gone by 1990. Hereโ€™s how Pounds & Crump, authors of the climate theory of the toadโ€™s destruction describe the situation:

In 1987, the golden toad (Bufo periglenes; Bufonidae), endemic to elfin cloud forest in Costa Ricaโ€™s Cordillera de Tilaran, appeared safe in the Monteverde Cloud Forest reserve. During April-May,more than 1500 toads gathered to mate in temporary pools at Brillante, the principal known breeding site. This spectacle had occurred annually since at least 1972, when the preserve was founded. But in 1988 and again in 1989, only a single toad appeared at Brillante, and a few others gathered 4-5 km SE. A variety of other amphibians in the area, including the harlequin frog (Atelopus varius; Bufonidae) and members of six other families, became scarce at the same time. During 1990-1992, despite our intensive surveys, no golden toads or harlequin frogs were found.Pounds & Crump 1994 (references removed for clarity).

The picture that is painted is of a toad that was locally abundant but in an extremely restricted area. It was a species that was clinging on to life, and that drew tourists every spring to gawp at it when it gathered in temporary pools to mate.

And then nothing; gone.

In 1986-7 there was an El Niรฑo, which dried pools out before tadpoles could metamorphose. But an El Niรฑo is not climate, however much we want it to be, and โ€“ as explained above โ€“ pools drying out at inopportune times is a regular hazard for many amphibians. The ponds drying out could halt recruitment for the year, but it could not kill the adult toads, which would be expected to return a year later to try again.

Except that didnโ€™t happen, did it? The toads gathered as usual in 1987; they dispersed; they were never seen again. Hereโ€™s what Fisher et al said about Bd in 2007:

Mesoamerica has witnessed a rapid wave-like front of expansion from an apparent origin in Monteverde, Costa Rica, southward at estimated rates of between 17 and 43 km per year, and has recently crossed the Panama Canal.Fisher et al, 2009

The apparent point-inoculation at Monteverde โ€“ the only place ever known to have had a population of golden toads โ€“ leads Fisher et al to place the blame for the outbreak onโ€ฆ scientists and amphibian-collectors bringing spores from their travels elsewhere (see also the quote included in Denierland above). However, I donโ€™t know if thatโ€™s what happened. There may well be a โ€œnaturalโ€ vector for the fungus (see Prahl et al 2020), although the human trade in amphibians certainly spread Bd around the world (overview in Fisher et al 2009), from which its subsequent expansion was perhaps more โ€œnatural.โ€

Here is figure 3 from Cheng et al, 2011, a picture that paints, well, several thousand words:

Cheng et al say:

Whereas our results do not rule out a role for climate change, we have found no necessary connection between climate change and the particular extinction events at our study sites. We suggest that the emergence and spread of a pathogen into naรฏve host populations can explain amphibian declines in the neotropics as other studies have also posited.Cheng et al, 2011

What we have here is a pathogen introduced to an area where one particular species of toad had already declined to a very confined population in the low thousands before it was even discovered by humans in the 60s (see Savage, 1966 for the tale of its discovery). That population had no immunity to Bd. It was wiped out, not by climate change, but by human carelessness. The gun was fired in the early twentieth century when toads were being traded around the world. They took Bd with them. Where the fungus was seeded, it extirpated naรฏve populations and spread inexorably. The bullet reached Monteverde and hit the golden toad in 1987, and Bd is still spreading around the world today. And even if there had been no Bd, and if the golden toad was finished off by drought, to blame it on climate change you have to believe that all the factors that drove it into its final stronghold were no longer acting.

The disgrace is that we are supposed to believe that, had we reined in our emissions of carbon dioxide ***before 1987***, the golden toad would still be alive. That is misinformation, or disinformation, or perhaps more accurately, a lie.

I do not have the time or inclination to delve in great depth into the truth or otherwise of the bland pro-alarm statements that I read in AR6. I hardly see how I can trust any of it, when the first item I look at in detail is as good a manifestation of โ€œTeh Scienceโ€ as you could hope to find. Falsus in uno, as they say. I have low expectations of climate science, but I have been disappointed again.

Conclusion

There are three hypotheses before us for what caused the demise of the golden toad. I will leave it to the reader to discriminate between them.

  1. The Batrachochytrium hypothesis. A tiny population restricted to a tiny area encountered a novel pathogen that they had no resistance to. They died.
  2. The Pretzel hypothesis. A tiny population restricted to a tiny area encountered a novel pathogen that they had no resistance to. Human-caused climate change made them vulnerable to the pathogen, whereas without it, they would have resisted it. They died.
  3. Teh Science. A tiny population restricted to a tiny area experienced a drought which would not have happened, or would not have been as severe, in the absence of human-caused climate change. They died.

Featured image

A common or garden toad Bufo bufo snapped a few years ago in Norwich and coloured golden by the author. By the way, according to reports golden toads did not vocalize, so my whimsical subtitle should be treated with the respect it deserves. Note also that the golden toad has gone through a number of monickers over its brief career: Bufo, Cranopsis, Incilius all refer to the same beast.

References

AR6: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/ [Youโ€™re looking for Chapter 2.]

The remainder are all obtainable at Google Scholar if you search for them there.

Cheng, T. L., Rovito, S. M., Wake, D. B., & Vredenburg, V. T. (2011). Coincident mass extirpation of neotropical amphibians with the emergence of the infectious fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(23), 9502-9507.

Coleman, J. L. (2020). Anthropogenic Drivers and Chytridiomycosis: Untangling the Disappearances of the Golden Toad and Costa Rican Variable Harlequin Toad and Addressing Amphibian Decline. Bulletin of the Chicago Herpetological Society, 55(8), 157-162.

Fisher, M. C., & Garner, T. W. (2007). The relationship between the emergence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, the international trade in amphibians and introduced amphibian species. Fungal biology reviews, 21(1), 2-9.

Fisher, M. C., Garner, T. W., & Walker, S. F. (2009). Global emergence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and amphibian chytridiomycosis in space, time, and host. Annual review of microbiology, 63, 291-310.

Longcore, J. E., Pessier, A. P., & Nichols, D. K. (1999). Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis gen. et sp. nov., a chytrid pathogenic to amphibians. Mycologia, 91(2), 219-227.

Pounds, J. A., & Crump, M. L. (1994). Amphibian declines and climate disturbance: the case of the golden toad and the harlequin frog. Conservation Biology, 8(1), 72-85.

Prahl, J., Wilson, T. P., Giles, D., & Craddock, J. H. (2020). An overview of research regarding reservoirs, vectors and predators of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Acta Herpetologica, 15(1), 39-45.

Richards-Hrdlicka, K. L. (2013). Preserved specimens of the extinct Golden Toad of Monteverde (Cranopsis periglenes) tested negative for the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). Journal of Herpetology, 47(3), 456-458.

Savage, J. M. (1966). An extraordinary new toad (Bufo) from Costa Rica. Revista de Biologia Tropical, 14(2), 153-167.