Faraway Tectonic Forces May Have Accelerated the Gulf of California Rifting

New research from the University of Texas at Austin (Jackson School of Geosciences, UT Institute for Geophysics) and international collaborators indicates that distant tectonic forces in the western Pacific, specifically the formation of a double subduction zone near Japan, likely accelerated the rifting that opened the Gulf of California about 12 million years ago.

Double subduction occurs when two subduction zones operate at the same time and interact with each other, rather than acting independently.

A normal (single) subduction zone forms where two tectonic plates converge and the denser plate dives (subducts) beneath the other into the mantle.

Illustration depicting ocean currents in the Pacific Ocean, with arrows indicating the direction of flow.
AI generated by Grok

New research from the University of Texas at Austin (Jackson School of Geosciences, UT Institute for Geophysics) and international collaborators indicates that distant tectonic forces in the western Pacific, specifically the formation of a double subduction zone near Japan, likely accelerated the rifting that opened the Gulf of California about 12 million years ago.

When the Baja California peninsula separated from mainland Mexico, it created the Gulf of California through continental rifting. The region already had lithospheric weaknesses that promoted opening, but computer models suggest extra extensional stress from far-away plate interactions sped the process by roughly 30- 80 million years.

Key findings

  • Researchers propose that a single subduction zone in the western Pacific was joined by a second one, creating a double subduction system. Most effects were local (near Japan), but simulations showed a clear increase in extensional stress specifically near Baja California, over 9,000 km away, while other regions showed no comparable change.⁠
  • Extra stress can thin the lithosphere and promote faulting, accelerating rifting.
  • Modeling (using the open- source ASPECT software) incorporated current slab geometries, mantle anomalies, and lithospheric structures to compute mantle flow, plate velocities, and stresses. Comparing single- versus double-subduction setups highlighted the distant effect.⁠
  • With two subducting slabs, the trailing plate does not move twice as fast but roughly 1.7 times as fast, according to co- author Thorsten Becker.

The study was published in Science and involved researchers from UT Austin, the Czech Academy of Sciences, Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, and Roma Tre University. Lead numerical modeling was done by Xiang He (UT graduate research assistant). Funding came from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the National Science Foundation, and the Italian Science Fund.

The team notes that improved global plate- interaction models could help interpret other complex settings (e.g., the East African Rift) and longer- term tectonic forcing relevant to earthquake hazards.

The work does not claim the Pacific forces were the sole cause of Gulf formation; regional factors were already at work but indicates they provided significant additional “pull.”

Primary sources: University of Texas Jackson School of Geosciences and UT Institute for Geophysics press releases (October 29, 2026).

A global view of the Earth highlighting the Pacific Ocean with topographical features, featuring two inset maps of Japan and the West Coast of North America.
This illustration shows the location of the double subduction zone off the coast of Japan (left inset) and the Gulf of California (right inset) separated by over 9,000 kilometers. Credit: He et al.

Double subduction occurs when two subduction zones operate at the same time and interact with each other, rather than acting independently.

Basic plate- tectonics background

A normal (single) subduction zone forms where two tectonic plates converge and the denser plate dives (subducts) beneath the other into the mantle. This process is driven mainly by the weight of the sinking slab (slab pull). It creates deep ocean trenches, volcanic arcs, and strong forces that move the surrounding plates.

What makes it “double”

In a double- subduction system, two such zones exist close enough that their effects couple:

  • Two slabs sink into the mantle simultaneously.
  • The slabs can dip in the same direction (“same- dip”) or toward each other (“inward- dipping”), or in more complex geometries.
  • The combined gravitational pull of the two slabs exerts a stronger or differently directed force on the intervening or trailing plates than a single slab would.
  • This interaction can change mantle flow, plate velocities, and the stress field over large distances, sometimes thousands of kilometers away.

Computer models (including the ASPECT simulations used in the recent Gulf of California study) show that two slabs do not simply double the speed of the trailing plate; the acceleration is typically less than additive (in the study, roughly 1.7 times as fast rather than twice as fast).

The specific system linked to the Gulf of California

In the western Pacific near Japan, geological evidence and modeling indicate that a single subduction zone was later joined by a second one, creating a double- subduction configuration.

Most of the local effects (trench motion, earthquakes, volcanism) remained concentrated around Japan. However, the extra slab pulls transmitted stress across the Pacific plate. Near Baja California, more than 9,000 km away, this produced additional extensional (pull- apart) stress.

That distant extra stress is thought to have thinned the lithosphere and helped localize faulting, accelerating the rifting that separated the Baja California peninsula from mainland Mexico and opened the Gulf of California about 12 million years ago. Regional weaknesses already favored rifting; the far- field double- subduction force is estimated to have sped the process by tens of millions of years.

Why it matters

Double subduction demonstrates that plate- boundary forces are not purely local. Forces generated on one side of an ocean basin can influence continental breakup, mountain building, or rift evolution on the opposite side. Similar interactions are being studied in other regions (for example, parts of the western Pacific today and possible ancient systems that affected the South China Sea or other basins). Advanced 3- D geodynamic models are now able to capture these long- range effects more realistically than earlier 2- D approaches.

Western Pacific double subduction drives Gulf of California rifting

The link points to a Science research article (DOI: 10.1126/science.aef5187) published around late October 2026. The full text is behind a paywall (or institutional access), so I could not retrieve the complete paper, figures, or supplementary materials directly.

It is the peer- reviewed study corresponding to the University of Texas at Austin, Jackson School of Geosciences press release discussed previously: faraway (western Pacific) tectonic forces from a double subduction zone accelerated rifting of the Gulf of California.

Summary of the research (from institutional releases and secondary reports)

  • Core claim: Formation of a double subduction system in the western Pacific (near Japan) generated extra extensional stress that propagated across the Pacific plate and accelerated continental rifting near Baja California ~12 million years ago.⁠
  • The Gulf was already opening due to regional lithospheric weaknesses, but the distant double subduction is estimated to have sped the process by roughly 30-80 million years.
  • Methods: 3D physics- based numerical modeling with the open- source code ASPECT. Researchers compared single- vs. double- subduction configurations using data on slab geometries, mantle anomalies, and lithospheric structure to calculate mantle flow, plate velocities, and lithospheric stresses. Stress increases appeared clearly near Baja California (over 9,000 km away) but not in most other regions.⁠
  • With two subducting slabs, the trailing plate moves ~1.7 times as fast (not twice as fast) as with a single slab.
  • Authors, affiliations include researchers from the University of Texas at Austin (including Xiang He and Thorsten Becker), Czech Academy of Sciences, Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, and Roma Tre University. Some secondary reports list Guido M. Gianni et al. as associated authors.⁠

The work highlights how global- scale plate interactions can influence distant continental margins and may have applications to understanding other rifts (e.g., East Africa) and long- term tectonic forcing relevant to hazards.

For the full paper (abstract, methods, results, figures), institutional subscription, access to Science is required, or you can check for any open preprint or author- posted version. The UT Jackson School and UTIG press releases provide the most detailed public summaries currently available.

Journal: Science, Vol 394, Issue 6823, pp. 515-519

DOI: 10.1126/science.aef5187

Provided: University of Texas at Austin

Published: 29 Oct 2026

Authors: Guido M. Gianni, Xiang He, Thorsten W. Becker, and Claudio Faccenna

Corresponding author: Email: gianni@ig.cas.cz

Abstract

Continental rifting reflects the balance between tectonic forces and lithospheric strength, yet the mechanisms of breakup remain debated. Rapid rifting of the Gulf of California oblique rift (GOCOR) ~6 million to 8 million years ago is a key example; it may have resulted from the lithosphere responding to external kinematics or acceleration of long-lived extension. The dynamics of either scenario remain incompletely understood. In this study, we highlight that the rapid rifting of the GOCOR coincides with the initiation of Western Pacific double subduction. Using three-dimensional geodynamic models, we show that such subduction reorganization can transmit extensional stresses of ~5 to 15 megapascals across the Pacific plate, loading the GOCOR and the southern San Andreas fault. Subduction reorganization may represent the missing driver for the initiation of rapid GOCOR rifting within a preconditioned lithosphere and may be an overlooked tectonic force behind other rifting events.

HotAir is Right, the Labour Decision to Open The Jackdaw Gas Field is a WIN For British Energy Security

A recent post by HotAir editor Beege Welborn, “Labour’s Case of Gas Under Attack,” describes the UK government’s decision to open an offshore natural gas field as a “win-win” for both the government and ratepayers. This is true, suppression of the development of their own energy resources has been a serious problem for the UK at large, which has suffered some of the highest electricity costs in the world.

Offshore gas platform in the North Sea with British flag, promoting the Jackdaw Gas Field as beneficial for UK energy security.
AI generated by Meta

From ClimateRealism

By Linnea Lueken

Silhouette of oil rigs against a vibrant sunset sky.

A recent post by HotAir editor Beege Welborn, “Labour’s Case of Gas Under Attack,” describes the UK government’s decision to open an offshore natural gas field as a “win-win” for both the government and ratepayers. This is true, suppression of the development of their own energy resources has been a serious problem for the UK at large, which has suffered some of the highest electricity costs in the world.

Welborn writes that it’s “insane” that government officials took this long in the first place to make the decision to open the Jackdaw North Sea gas field, because “Jackdaw won’t take years to provide relief from both high prices and shortages of natural gas on demand during high usage periods,” gas is predicted to start being produced from Jackdaw “possibly within weeks.”

Tory leadership points out that, had the decision been made sooner, gas would have been available during this coming winter, when they are now facing shortages.

Any shortages mean that ratepayers will be suffering from even higher electricity prices, in a nation which ranks in the top ten with the highest electricity costs in the world.

Long gone are the days where residents can easily use their home fireplace if heating bills become too high. London makes it illegal to heat your home with wood burning stoves or fireplaces unless you have a particular kind of appliance, or are not in a smoke-control area (which most of London is).

This is especially egregious and dangerous given the fact that deaths due to cold weather outnumber those due to heat by a large margin. In the UK alone, between 2000 and 2019, 44,000 citizens died from cold weather, according to a study in The Lancet.

How many died of heat? Just 8000. Five times more people died of cold than heat in the UK.

But, as Welborn points out, these realities do not “matter one whit to the hard-core Labour climate cultists, the Greens, or any of the radical environmental whacko groups in the UK who have held sway over energy policy for so long.”

Indeed the complaint from other Labour members and the Green Party leadership is that opening Jackdaw is “climate vandalism.” Alleged human-caused global warming is their only concern, to the exclusion of all other issues.

The UK needs natural gas, however, and they will get it any way that they can, and up until now that was largely by importing it from other countries, which certainly could not be “greener” than using nearby resources anyway.

This way, they save in both emissions related to shipping (if you are worried about that at all) and reduce their reliance on sources of energy from foreign countries. As Welborn said, “win-win,” it should be a no-brainer.

Climate Realism has explained in a multitude of posts how and why renewables like wind and solar simply cannot be the majority energy source for a country, and in practice are more expensive than traditional energy. This is true for the United Kingdom as much as it is any other country that has suffered from rising electricity costs as they adopt more non-dispatchable wind and solar. The only reason they are so heavily installed at all is because of generous subsidies and mandates for installation provided to no other electricity generators.

In the UK, for instance, the Renewables Obligations (RO), Feed-in-Tariffs (FiT), and Contract for Difference subsidy schemes support wind and solar by awarding special certificates and payments for power generation, which end up costing the public almost £12 billion per year. As with every grid that ends up being over reliant on intermittent resources, extra gas plants are required to balance the unstable power generation from wind and solar, which further adds to the cost.

On top of all that, gas-fired electricity production is slapped with a carbon tax. Who pays for that? The ratepayer, ultimately.

Welborn, and by extension, HotAir where the post was published, are right to gloat about this victory, even if the UK has a long way to go to reduce energy costs. The climate of the planet is not going to be impacted at all by the UK using more of their own gas instead of getting it from foreign sources, hopefully Labour is finally waking up (at least a little bit) to energy reality.

Permitting reform is the ultimate test of American mineral security

The U.S. has launched a long-overdue effort to reclaim control of the mineral supply chains that underpin our economy and national security. Years of working around the edges of the problem have been replaced by forceful action. The Trump administration has fundamentally changed Washington’s approach to American mining. But whether the promise of this effort becomes a new era of domestic production and mineral security will depend on follow-through. Passing permitting reform is the ultimate test.

A yellow hard hat placed on a weathered surface next to a wrinkled American flag.
Happy Labor Day USA patriotic, yellow hard hat construction helmet USA flag over wooden deck table background.

From CFACT

BY RICH NOLAN:

The U.S. has launched a long-overdue effort to reclaim control of the mineral supply chains that underpin our economy and national security. Years of working around the edges of the problem have been replaced by forceful action. The Trump administration has fundamentally changed Washington’s approach to American mining. But whether the promise of this effort becomes a new era of domestic production and mineral security will depend on follow-through. Passing permitting reform is the ultimate test.

The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act gives Congress the opportunity to deliver. We are undeniably in the minerals age. From semiconductors and batteries to cutting-edge defense systems, minerals — and an increasingly wide array of them — have never been more important to our economic and national security. As demand surges for these irreplaceable materials, our ability to supply them must catch up to their mounting importance.

China understands the stakes. It has spent decades investing in mines and processing facilities, using state support to dominate markets and export controls to squeeze industries essential to our defense and manufacturing base. Breaking that grip requires a sustained commitment to rebuilding American productive capacity. The resources are here. The political will to transform them into secure supply chains has been glaringly missing. That, thanks to the Trump administration, is changing.

The administration has greatly expanded the tools available to counter China’s mineral dominance. Financing, stockpiling and measures to counter predatory market practices are helping level a deeply uneven playing field. Better coordination through the FAST-41 permitting program is also encouraging. But these efforts need durable congressional permitting reforms to deliver the sweeping change American mining requires. Clear rules must endure beyond any single administration or election.

Consider the obstacles we face. A recent study found that bringing a U.S. mine from discovery to production takes an average of 29 years, the second longest timeline in the world. Permitting delays, obstructive litigation and the uncertainty they have created are the tallest barriers along that unnecessarily long road. We cannot rebuild supply chains and counter China’s supply chain weaponization on a timetable that consumes a generation.

This bipartisan permitting deal reflects the urgency of the moment. Notably, it removes duplication and unnecessary delays and tightens review deadlines, improving transparency and clarifying access to lands needed for activities that support mining operations. The agreement also offers much-needed litigation reform. Too often, litigation becomes a tool to delay production for years, even when a challenge has little prospect of succeeding. Clearer limits on legal challenges and greater certainty around issued permits would help ensure that completing the review process actually means something. This is the transparency and certainty mining needs.

Americans understand why action matters. In national polling conducted by The Harris Poll this September, 85% of Americans said increasing domestic mining is important to economic and national security given China’s mineral export restrictions. I can’t recall the last policy issue on which nine in 10 American voters agreed.

Now is the time to recognize the status quo cannot continue. The stakes, of course, reach well beyond mining. It is hard to find a key challenge in America — housing and energy affordability or the eroding state of our infrastructure — that isn’t in some way shaped by the urgent need for reform.

This is the moment to rebuild American mining and break China’s grip on the supply chains so essential to our economic and national security. Passing the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act can turn the promise of America’s vast mineral resources into the productive capacity we so urgently need. This is an opportunity we can’t let slip through our fingers.

This article originally appeared at RealClear Energy

Rich Nolan is president and CEO of the National Mining Association.

Winds Open Antarctic Ice Holes — Then Waves Shatter Them From the Inside Out

A recent Nature Communications paper by Joey J. Voermans (University of Melbourne) and colleagues shows that locally generated waves in Antarctic coastal polynyas can break up surrounding sea ice from the inside outward.

Katabatic winds are downslope winds driven by gravity acting on denser (usually colder) air.

Cold air near the surface becomes denser than the surrounding air. On elevated terrain, such as a plateau, ice sheet, or mountain slope, this dense air flows downhill under gravity. The term comes from the Greek katabasis (“descent” or “going down”).

Aerial view of cracked ice on a frozen body of water, with dark patches of liquid water, and wisps of mist rising above it under a dramatic sky.
AI generated by Grok

A recent Nature Communications paper by Joey J. Voermans (University of Melbourne) and colleagues shows that locally generated waves in Antarctic coastal polynyas can break up surrounding sea ice from the inside outward.

Coastal polynyas are recurring open- water areas within sea ice that act as “sea- ice factories”, producing large volumes of new ice. Their formation and persistence have long been attributed mainly to strong offshore (katabatic or synoptic) winds that advect ice away from the coast. The role of waves has been largely unexplored due to the scarcity of in situ observations.

Using rare wave- buoy data from the Vincennes Bay Polynya (East Antarctica, near Casey Station), the researchers found that strong winds generate energetic, short- period wind waves within the open water.

These waves grow across the polynya’s fetch and are steep enough to fracture the surrounding ice cover starting at the polynya edge and propagating outward. This “inside- outward” breakup contrasts with the more familiar “outside- inward” process driven by long- period Southern Ocean swells that approach the ice edge from the open ocean.

The buoy records (from deployments in 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025) showed sharp increases in wave energy with relatively short dominant wavelengths once the instruments entered the polynya, consistent with fetch- limited local wind- wave growth rather than distant swell (which is strongly attenuated by intervening pack ice).

Analysis of satellite sea- ice concentration records (2003- 2022) showed that extreme wave- induced breakup events are associated with substantial, persistent reductions in sea- ice concentration lasting at least one week, along with increased transitions to active frazil ice (the loose crystals that form in turbulent, supercooled water).

This creates feedback: waves enlarge and help sustain the open- water area, promoting further heat loss, supercooling, and new ice production.

The results highlight a previously overlooked mechanism in polynya dynamics. As Antarctic coastal polynyas change under a warming climate, wave activity may become increasingly important in shaping sea- ice conditions, dense-water formation, and related processes in the polar ocean.

Paper: Voermans, J. J., et al. (2026). “Inside-outward breakup of sea ice by locally generated waves in the Vincennes Bay Polynya.” Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77979-y.

Satellite image comparing sea ice coverage before and after significant thinning on 6 October 2021 and 7 October 2021, respectively.
MODIS satellite images showing sea- ice conditions in the Vincennes Bay Polynya before and after an extreme wind-wave event. Credit: NASA Worldview

Katabatic winds are downslope winds driven by gravity acting on denser (usually colder) air.

Cold air near the surface becomes denser than the surrounding air. On elevated terrain, such as a plateau, ice sheet, or mountain slope, this dense air flows downhill under gravity. The term comes from the Greek katabasis (“descent” or “going down”).

Key characteristics:

  • They are typically cold and dry.
  • Speeds can range from gentle breezes to gale-force or stronger, especially where the terrain funnels or steepens the flow.
  • They often intensify at night or in winter when radiative cooling is strongest.

Katabatic winds are common in polar regions and high mountain areas:

  • Antarctica: Extremely important. Cold air over the high interior ice sheet drains toward the coast, sometimes reaching very high speeds. These winds help create and maintain coastal polynyas by blowing newly formed sea ice offshore.
  • Greenland: Similar drainage flows off the ice sheet.
  • Other locations: Alpine valleys, the Adriatic coast (bora winds have a katabatic component), and various mountainous regions worldwide.

In short, katabatic winds are gravity- driven downslope flows of dense cold air, and they play a major role in polar climate and sea-ice dynamics.

Diagram illustrating wave dynamics in a coastal polynya, showing strong winds generating waves, wave-induced breakup of ice cover, and effects of wind and wave stresses on ice transport and compaction.
Conceptual diagram of wave-driven breakup and redistribution of sea ice around a coastal polynya. Credit: Joey Voermans

Inside-outward breakup of sea ice by locally generated waves in the Vincennes Bay Polynya

Strong offshore winds (including katabatic winds) in the Vincennes Bay Polynya (East Antarctica) generate energetic local wind waves inside the open water. These waves are steep enough to fracture the surrounding sea ice from the inside outward, the opposite of the usual process in which Southern Ocean swells break ice from the outside inward.

Key evidence

  • Rare in- situ measurements from four drifting wave buoys (deployed near Casey Station in 2021, 2022, 2024 and 2025) recorded a sharp rise in wave energy with short dominant periods once the buoys entered the polynya, consistent with fetch- limited local wind- wave growth rather than distant swell.
  • Southern Ocean swell was strongly attenuated by the intervening pack ice and contributed little to the measured wave energy.
  • Satellite records (2003- 2022) show that extreme wave- breakup events coincide with substantial, persistent drops in sea- ice concentration lasting at least one week, plus increased production of active frazil ice.

Coastal polynyas are major “sea- ice factories” and sites of dense- water formation. The study shows that locally generated waves are an important, previously overlooked feedback that helps reshape and sustain these polynyas. As Antarctic conditions change, wave activity may become increasingly significant.

The paper directly links the strong katabatic and synoptic winds that keep the polynya open to the generation of the waves that then break the surrounding ice.

Journal: Nature Communications, 17, Article number: 11224 (2026)

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77979-y

Published: 29 September 2026, Open access

Authors: Joey J. Voermans,
Qingxiang Liu,
Lang Cao,
Josh Kousal,
Petra Heil,
Alexander D. Fraser,
Clarence O. Collins,
Jean Rabault &
Alexander V. Babanin

Abstract

Coastal polynyas are recurring regions of open water within sea ice that serve as sea-ice factories, producing vast amounts of new ice relative to nearby sea-ice-covered regions. Their formation and persistence are commonly attributed to strong offshore winds, while the influence of waves on polynya dynamics remains largely unexplored. Using rare wave-buoy observations from the Vincennes Bay Polynya, we show that strong winds generate energetic waves capable of breaking surrounding sea ice from the inside-outward, contrasting with outside-inward breakup caused by Southern Ocean swells. Satellite records from 2003–2022 reveal that extreme wave-induced breakup events coincide with substantial reductions in sea-ice concentration that persist for at least one week, accompanied by increased transitions to active frazil ice. These findings demonstrate that locally generated waves impact polynya dynamics and reshape surrounding sea-ice conditions. As Antarctic coastal polynyas evolve under a changing climate, wave activity may become increasingly important in shaping their sea-ice conditions and evolution.

Ancient oceans warmed — and fish thrived as carbon export surged

A recent study finds that during the Paleocene- Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55.9 million years ago), pelagic fish productivity and carbon export from the surface ocean both increased widely, especially in the Pacific and North Atlantic, contrary to many short- term modern observations and some model projections of productivity declines under warming.

cGENIE is an Earth system model of intermediate complexity commonly used for paleoclimate and carbon- cycle studies.

Illustration depicting the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum with an emphasis on ocean conditions 56 million years ago, showing warming ocean, biological carbon pump processes, and the role of phytoplankton and microbes in carbon cycling.
AI generated by Grok

A recent study finds that during the Paleocene- Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55.9 million years ago), pelagic fish productivity and carbon export from the surface ocean both increased widely, especially in the Pacific and North Atlantic, contrary to many short- term modern observations and some model projections of productivity declines under warming.

The findings come from a September 2026 open- access paper in Nature Communications (“Coupled increases in pelagic fish productivity and export productivity during the Paleocene- Eocene Thermal Maximum”). The title you referenced matches press coverage of this work (including by science writer David Appell for Phys.org).

Key background and methods

The PETM was a rapid global warming event triggered by a large release of carbon (roughly 3,000- 10,000 Gt C over ~10 kyr), causing a 3–5‰ negative carbon isotope excursion, seawater warming of ~5- 8 °C, ocean acidification, and other stresses. Cumulative carbon release is comparable in scale to high-end future anthropogenic scenarios, though the emission rate was slower, making it a useful long-term analog.

Researchers used:

  • Ichthyolith accumulation rates (IAR), fossil fish teeth and scales and dermal denticles in deep- sea sediments, as a proxy for mid- trophic pelagic fish productivity (mainly small pelagic fishes and sharks).
  • Marine barite accumulation rates (BAR) to estimate export productivity (new production, Pnew​), because barite forms in association with sinking organic matter.

They examined multiple sediment cores (new data from sites in the North Pacific, Eastern Equatorial Pacific, North Atlantic, South Atlantic, and Southeast Indian Ocean, plus prior data) and compared the proxies spatially and temporally. Earth- system model simulations (cGENIE) under elevated pCO₂ helped interpret mechanisms.

Main results

  • IAR rose substantially at Pacific and North Atlantic sites during the main carbon isotope excursion interval, with peaks often 5- 11 times background levels (highest in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific). South Atlantic and Indian Ocean sites showed more modest changes.
  • These IAR increases closely tracked rises in BAR- derived export productivity in both timing and spatial pattern. Global pooled data showed a significant positive correlation between the two.
  • Model results indicate that under high CO₂, enhanced nutrient supply (e.g., from stronger terrestrial weathering and runoff) can outweigh the productivity-suppressing effects of increased ocean stratification.

The coupled rises suggest that greater carbon export from the surface supplied more food to mid- trophic- level consumers, supporting higher fish productivity. The authors note that higher export in the water column does not automatically mean more organic matter reaches the seafloor.

Implications

Modern satellite and observational data show recent open- ocean productivity declines (especially in low latitudes) linked to stratification and weaker upwelling under warming, and many models project fisheries impacts.

This PETM evidence indicates that the long-term response under sustained greenhouse conditions can differ: productivity and fish production can increase when nutrient inputs rise enough. The authors emphasize that short- term modern trends may not fully capture millennial- to- longer responses once the system equilibrates.

This builds on earlier work showing elevated fish production during early Paleogene warmth (including the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum) and other PETM fish- abundance studies. It adds direct pairing of fish and export-productivity proxies across ocean basins plus modeling support.

In short, the geologic record suggests that ancient ocean warming of this magnitude was associated with surges in both carbon export and pelagic fish productivity, driven in part by nutrient fertilization that overcame stratification effects.

Global maps of soil carbon export under different scenarios of atmospheric CO2 concentration and phosphorus weathering during the PETM transient period, including variations in contributions from elevated pCO2, weathering, and recycling.
Simulated marine particulate organic carbon (POC) export flux at the intermediate water depth (483 m) for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) under transient sensitivity experiments and isolated contributions of individual processes. Credit: Nature Communications (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77863-9

cGENIE is an Earth system model of intermediate complexity commonly used for paleoclimate and carbon- cycle studies.

In this paper, the authors ran a series of transient simulations with it to test possible mechanisms behind the observed rise in export productivity (particulate organic carbon, or POC, flux) during the PETM. They focused on POC export at intermediate depth (~483 m) and compared the results to their barite- derived Pnew​ proxy records.

Experimental design

They performed sensitivity experiments that isolated three main factors:

  1. Atmospheric ppCO₂ forcing alone (experiment PETM_CP_NER)
    • Atmospheric CO₂ was doubled from a pre- PETM baseline of 1112 ppm to 2224 ppm.
  2. CO₂ forcing and temperature- dependent phosphorus (P) weathering (PETM_1×_NER)
    • Added enhanced terrestrial weathering of phosphorus driven by warmer temperatures (consistent with independent lithium-isotope evidence of a ~50–60% global weathering increase).
  3. CO₂ forcing and temperature- dependent P weathering and redox- dependent P recycling (PETM_1×_ER)
    • Further added internal phosphorus recycling that strengthens under warmer, more deoxygenated conditions.

They also isolated the individual contributions of each process by differencing the experiments (shown in Fig. 4 of the paper).

Key model results

1. CO₂ doubling / warming and stratification alone produce only a tiny net change

  • Global mean POC export shows an initial transient decline (due to stronger stratification reducing nutrient upwelling), followed by gradual recovery.
  • At quasi- equilibrium the net increase is only ~0.01 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹, far smaller than the roughly twofold- to- threefold rise inferred from marine barite records.
  • The result is insensitive to the exact rate of CO₂ increase.
    → Pure greenhouse forcing and the resulting stratification cannot explain the proxy data.

2. Enhanced weathering -derived phosphorus supply is the dominant driver

  • When temperature- dependent P weathering is enabled, ocean- wide average POC export rises substantially: from ~0.7 to ~1.2 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹.
  • Stronger weathering enhancements (e.g., 1.9-fold) push the flux even higher (~1.6 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹), matching the magnitude of the global barite-based increase.
  • Spatially, the largest modeled increases occur in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, Atlantic, and Tethys, patterns broadly consistent with the proxy spatial variability.
    → External nutrient input from intensified continental weathering outweighs the negative effects of stratification.

3. Redox-dependent phosphorus recycling adds almost nothing extra

  • Turning on stronger internal P recycling on top of the weathering increase produces only a negligible additional ~0.01 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹.
  • Reason: in a warmer, more stratified ocean the thermocline deepens and upward nutrient transport weakens, limiting how much recycled phosphorus reaches the surface euphotic zone. This nutrient- transport limitation largely cancels the expected boost from recycling.

4. Regional iron fertilization is a missing amplifier

  • The global model does not include regional iron inputs (from North Atlantic Igneous Province volcanism, circum- Caribbean eruptions, or enhanced dust).
  • As a result, simulated POC fluxes are generally lower than the highest proxy PnewPnew​ values, especially at the Eastern Equatorial Pacific and North Atlantic sites where iron fertilization is thought to have been important.

Overall interpretation from the model

Under elevated ppCO₂, the positive effect of enhanced nutrient supply (mainly via warmer- climate weathering) can outweigh the suppressive effect of ocean stratification on export productivity.

This supports the proxy observation of higher carbon export during the PETM and helps explain why mid- trophic fish productivity also rose. The model also implies that higher export could have acted as negative feedback by increasing organic- carbon burial and helping draw down atmospheric CO₂, although warmer temperatures and acidification may have accelerated organic- matter degradation higher in the water column, so more export does not automatically mean more organic carbon reaches the seafloor.

In short, the cGENIE results show that nutrient fertilization, not just temperature or CO₂, is the key to reconciling increased long- term productivity with a stratified greenhouse ocean.

Coupled increases in pelagic fish productivity and export productivity during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

Abstract (summary)

Ocean productivity is sensitive to climate change. Recent decades show declines, but the long- term response under sustained warming is uncertain. Using paired ichthyolith accumulation rates (IAR; a proxy for pelagic fish productivity) and marine barite accumulation rates (BAR; a proxy for export productivity / new production PnewPnew​), the authors examined the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55.9 Ma). They found a widespread increase in pelagic fish productivity (especially Pacific and North Atlantic) that closely tracks export productivity in both trend and spatial pattern. This suggests the fish increase was fueled by enhanced carbon export from the surface ocean. Earth- system model simulations (cGENIE) show that under elevated pCO₂, enhanced nutrient supply can outweigh the negative effects of ocean stratification on export productivity. The long- term response of marine productivity to sustained greenhouse warming may therefore differ from the short- term declines seen in the modern ocean.

Key context

The PETM involved rapid injection of 3,000- 10,000 Gt of isotopically light carbon, a 3- 5‰ negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE), ocean warming of 5-8 °C, acidification, deoxygenation, and biotic turnovers. Cumulative carbon release is comparable to high- end future anthropogenic scenarios (though the rate was slower), making it a useful long- term analog.

Prior proxies and models for PETM productivity have been inconsistent: BAR and some other records suggested increases (linked to terrestrial nutrient input), while certain microfossil assemblages and models pointed to declines from stratification.

Methods and sites

  • IAR: New data from ODP/IODP Sites 1209 (North Pacific), 1221 (Eastern Equatorial Pacific), U1403 (North Atlantic), U1557 (South Atlantic), and U1514 (Southeast Indian Ocean), plus reanalysis of prior data from Site 1220 (Eastern Equatorial Pacific).
  • BAR- derived Pnew​: Compilation including new measurements and prior data from matching or nearby sites.
  • Comparison with transient and equilibrated cGENIE model experiments testing CO₂ forcing, temperature- dependent phosphorus weathering, and redox- dependent phosphorus recycling.

Main results

  • Pronounced IAR increases at Pacific and North Atlantic sites during the main CIE interval (peaks often 5- 11 times as background; highest in Eastern Equatorial Pacific, up to 121 ichthyoliths cm⁻² kyr⁻¹). More modest changes in the South Atlantic and Indian Ocean.
  • Many sites show two IAR peaks: one at CIE onset and another ~45- 50 kyr later.
  • IAR rises primarily reflect higher ichthyolith flux (not sedimentation- rate changes). Fish community composition remained relatively stable (mostly small teeth <63 μm; no major morphotypes shifts or excursion fauna).
  • Pnew​ also rose, with peaks coinciding with IAR peaks in several regions (e.g., Eastern Equatorial Pacific reaching ~187 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹). Global pooled data show a significant positive correlation between Pnew​ and IAR (Pearson r=0.55r=0.55, Spearman ρ=0.61ρ=0.61).
  • Spatial patterns match modern export gradients to a degree, with highest values near upwelling or nutrient- source regions.

Mechanisms (from modeling)

  • CO₂- driven warming/stratification alone produces only a small net change in particulate organic carbon (POC) export after an initial decline.
  • Enhanced temperature- dependent phosphorus weathering (consistent with lithium- isotope evidence of 50– 60% higher terrestrial weathering) substantially boosts export productivity (roughly matching the observed ~2- 3 times as global rise in some records).
  • Redox- dependent phosphorus recycling adds little extra effect once stratification is accounted for.
  • Regional amplifiers (e.g., iron from volcanic ash and dust, especially near the North Atlantic Igneous Province) likely contributed in high- productivity areas but were not fully captured in the global model.

Implications

Elevated export productivity increased food availability for mid- trophic pelagic fish, supporting higher fish productivity. The long- term geologic response under sustained high CO₂ can feature productivity increases when nutrient supply rises enough to overcome stratification, contrasting with many short-term modern observations and some century- scale projections.

The paper is open access; the full text, figures, supplementary data, and methods are available at the link. This is the scientific source behind recent coverage (including pieces such as the Phys.org article referenced earlier).

Title: Coupled increases in pelagic fish productivity and export productivity during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

Journal: Nature Communications, volume 17, Article number: 10030 (2026)

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77863-9

Journal: Nature Communications

Authors: Xiuwen Zhou,
Ruiling Zhang,
Man-Yin Tsang,
Mingsong Li &
Weiqi Yao

Line graph showing the status of the world's fish stocks from 1974 to 2021, indicating the percentage of fish stocks that are biologically sustainable versus overexploited.
Credit: https://ourworldindata.org/fish-and-overfishing#how-much-of-the-world-s-fish-is-managed-sustainably

What Emission Reduction Advocating Economists get Wrong about the Real World

Putting a price on carbon only works if there are emissions reductions which can be made.
There is also a problem that most economists have no idea how the economy actually works, particularly the rural economy.

For starters, driving a lightweight vehicle on rural roads, especially an EV, is insanity. The risk of animal collision means you basically need to drive a armoured personnel carrier, if you want to survive. I almost lost my life colliding with a big red kangaroo while driving a Tucson, luckily a glancing blow.

An infographic contrasting economic theories on emission reduction with real-world complexities. The left side outlines economists' theories, including supply and demand models, assumptions, and projected emission reductions. The right side depicts the real world with illustrations of a power plant, freight logistics, farming impacts, and infrastructure challenges, emphasizing the complexities of achieving emission targets.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Putting a price on carbon only works if there are emissions reductions which can be made.

What economists just don’t get about climate change

The case against cheap climate policy

NOAH KAUFMAN

…

The Trump administration has gutted federal climate policy. Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s signature climate law sidelined the market-based measures, like carbon pricing, that economists have long recommended.

But we should also point our fingers at the mirror. The trouble is that economists and climate advocates are often talking past each other. …

…

The goal is not to reduce current emissions a little but instead to reduce future emissions a lot. …

…

However, carbon prices are limited tools for driving large emissions cuts cost-effectively. …

But large-scale vehicle emissions reductions are a different project that requires getting Americans to switch from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric or other alternative-fuel vehicles.Subscribe

In principle, a carbon price could drive that shift, too, by raising gasoline and diesel prices so high that drivers switch to EVs. But, in addition to the political challenges of imposing high carbon prices, that approach is likely to cost more than other strategies. Alternatives could rely somewhat less on gasoline price hikes and somewhat more on policies like zero-emission vehicle standards or “feebates” that encourage the purchase of cleaner vehicles.

To see why, imagine two extremes. In the first, EVs are near-perfect substitutes for gasoline vehicles, identical to drivers in virtually every way. Then, a zero-emission vehicle standard that gradually mandates more EV sales costs almost nothing, because buyers are indifferent. In contrast, a carbon price could shift those new-car decisions only by jacking up gasoline prices for the entire existing fleet, taxing millions of drivers who own gasoline-powered cars they won’t replace for years, all to influence the far smaller group choosing a new vehicle today.

In the second extreme, there is no viable alternative to the gasoline engine at all. Now the standard would be impossible to meet, while the carbon price would at least capture the changes from nudging people to drive less and to buy more efficient vehicles.

…Read more: https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/what-economists-just-dont-get-about

There is also a problem that most economists have no idea how the economy actually works, particularly the rural economy.

For starters, driving a lightweight vehicle on rural roads, especially an EV, is insanity. The risk of animal collision means you basically need to drive a armoured personnel carrier, if you want to survive. I almost lost my life colliding with a big red kangaroo while driving a Tucson, luckily a glancing blow. Lucky I took the hint and upgraded. My current vehicle, a fuel guzzling heavy duty 4WD, kept me safe when I collided with a feral hog in 2023 while I was doing 65MPH. The left side of the vehicle lifted 30º from horizontal from the collision, but the crash bars on the front, the quarter inch steel smash plate on the bottom, and the heavy-duty suspension of the 4WD not only saved my life, but it also protected the vehicle from damage.

Even an EV SUV subjected to that kind of punishment – colliding with that hog was still a huge impact which shook the whole vehicle. And we all know how much EV batteries like to be knocked about.

Or take farming. There has been a push lately to try to convince Aussie farmers to go electric. The reception has been less than enthusiastic. My farmer friend in Orange NSW uses 1000 litres of fuel per day in peak season, along with tons of other high carbon inputs such as fertiliser and agricultural chemicals, and he only owns a small farm which he uses for secondary income. I’m not sure how many batteries it would take to replace thousands of litres per day of fuel, and what kind of infrastructure would be required to supply the gigawatts of electricity required to power rechargers for all that equipment, but I’m guessing its not going to get built anytime soon.

Industry is in the same boat. When I’m operating my low-end trade pneumatic toolkit which cost thousands of dollars, but which makes metal work as easy as woodwork, my equipment consumes around 3000 watts. Real manufacturing processes consume far more power per worker.

There is no cutting back on these energy demands. Economists might draw fancy demand destruction graphs which show if they price carbon people will innovate and find ways to reduce emissions, all that actually happens is people cut back on economic activity. If you want to shift large amounts of dirt or smelt or work steel or produce concrete or plastic or all the other things city economists take for granted, you’re going to need to use a great deal of energy. And in many cases, the only viable way of delivering that energy is in the form of fossil fuel.

Of course, if governments persist anyway with their foolish carbon pricing measures, or absurd efficiency standards, they may pick at the edges of their imaginary problem, but by far the easiest way to reduce CO2 emissions is to close the factory or abandon the farm. You don’t have to look far for evidence of business owners making such decisions.

The EU even has a name for it; they call people abandoning the EU because of emissions pricing Carbon Leakage.

Australia also suffers this absurdity. Our political obsession with CO2 emissions has led to a 50% collapse in our manufacturing industry. More than ever Australia now ships coal and raw materials to Asia, then accepts finished products in return, and pretends this exercise reduced Australian emissions, when all that really happened is the emissions happened somewhere else.

California is also suffering a loss of heavy industrial jobs to other states. To an extent California can ignore this loss, their lead in high tech manufacturing and AI has provided a buffer against the economic harm of their energy policies. But as all those data centers being built outside of California demonstrates, data centers which service Californian tech giants, California’s emissions policies haven’t reduced emissions significantly, they’re just relocated those emissions.

On a global scale, you can see from global CO2 measurements at the top of this article, all the emissions reduction policies ever attempted, have achieved nothing other than to enrich China. Relocating emissions is always cheaper than reducing emissions, even if you have to pay a carbon border adjustment tax.

Until there is a significant technological breakthrough, like bucket size Mr Fusion devices which can power anything you can imagine from a few pieces of plastic or organic scrap, any attempt to reduce emissions in a meaningful way simply hurts the economy, which is dumb enough to make that attempt and transfers those emissions somewhere else.

Saharan Dust Carries Desert Bacteria Across the Atlantic to the Amazon

Saharan dust carries desert bacteria across the Atlantic to the Amazon rainforest, altering the airborne bacterial community while leaving fungal communities largely unchanged; it also triples airborne endotoxin levels.

This research does not conclude or directly demonstrate that the Saharan dust causes disease.

It does raise the possibility of health- related effects and flags them as an area needing further study.

Infographic illustrating how Saharan dust carries microscopic bacteria across the Atlantic Ocean to the Amazon rainforest, highlighting the roles of desert bacteria, microbial dust plumes, fungal spores, and actinomycetes.
AI generated by Grok

Saharan dust carries desert bacteria across the Atlantic to the Amazon rainforest, altering the airborne bacterial community while leaving fungal communities largely unchanged; it also triples airborne endotoxin levels.

This finding comes from a study published in Communications Earth & Environment (Nature portfolio), based on research involving the University of Graz (led by Bettina Weber), the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, and Brazilian partners. The press release was issued by Anne Reuter of the Max Planck Society (dated around 29 October 2026).

Key details of the study

In February 2020, researchers collected daily aerosol samples over three weeks at the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) in Brazil, at heights of 42 m and 323 m. During five of those days, North African (Saharan) dust reached the region after a roughly 10-day atmospheric journey.⁠

Genetic analyses showed:

  • Bacteria: Clear shift toward organisms typical of dry soils and biological soil crusts (biocrusts) from arid African regions. Genetic matches confirmed Saharan origin. Bacillota (a phylum common in Saharan dust, often including hardy and spore- forming members) increased notably.
  • Fungi: Community composition stayed relatively stable, attributed to the rainforest’s massive local spore production overwhelming any Saharan input.
  • Archaea: Generally low prevalence, with some marine- associated clades.⁠

Mineral tracers (e.g., elevated calcium/calcite) and air-mass trajectory modeling confirmed the African dust source.⁠

Additional findings and implications

Airborne endotoxin concentrations (components of certain bacterial cell walls released upon cell death) roughly tripled during the dust event. These can trigger inflammation and have been linked elsewhere (e.g., the Caribbean) to increased asthma or respiratory issues during Saharan dust episodes; whether a similar effect occurs in the Amazon needs further study.

No strong enrichment of obligate human pathogens was reported—the transported microbes were mainly environmental types.⁠

Saharan dust is already known as a major source of mineral nutrients (especially phosphorus) that help sustain Amazon productivity by offsetting losses from heavy rainfall.

This work adds a biological dimension: intercontinental transport of microbial genetic material and potentially viable cells.⁠

Open questions remain, including whether the bacteria remain viable after the long, harsh journey and what (if any) ecological or health effects they have. Follow-up work is planned.⁠

This builds on earlier knowledge of long- range dust transport (visible from space and quantified by satellites) and prior detections of African microbes in other regions but provides direct evidence of impacts on the Amazon’s airborne microbiome using paired background vs. dust-event sampling at ATTO.

A panoramic view of a lush, green forest landscape split into two halves; the left side features a clear blue sky and vibrant greenery, while the right side shows the same landscape shrouded in fog, creating a stark contrast.
On clear days the view from the ATTO Tower extends far beyond the Amazon rainforest. During influxes of Saharan dust, such as the one on Feb. 20, 2020 (right), the sky becomes so hazy that the horizon is no longer visible. Credit: Jens Weber, MPIC

This research does not conclude or directly demonstrate that the Saharan dust causes disease.

It does raise the possibility of health- related effects and flags them as an area needing further study.

Here’s what the paper and related materials actually report:

  • Airborne endotoxin levels roughly tripled during the five- day African dust intrusion. Endotoxins (components of certain bacterial cell walls released when cells die) are chemically stable and can trigger inflammation in humans.⁠
  • The researchers found no enrichment of obligate pathogens (disease- causing microbes that require a host). The transported bacterial community consisted mainly of environmental organisms associated with dryland soils, biological soil crusts, and marine environments.⁠
  • They explicitly note prior observations (e.g., in the Caribbean) linking Saharan dust arrivals with increased asthma attacks or respiratory issues, but state that “whether a similar correlation exists in the Amazon remains to be investigated.”⁠
  • The study does not test viability of the microbes after the ~10- day Atlantic crossing, nor does it measure actual health outcomes in people. The authors frame potential consequences for human health as possibilities arising from the observed transport, not as demonstrated impacts.⁠

In short, the work shows that dust can deliver higher levels of endotoxins and foreign microbial genetic material into Amazonian air. Those changes could theoretically contribute to respiratory inflammation or other effects under some conditions, but the research itself does not claim or prove that the dust causes disease. Additional studies would be required to establish any causal health links.

_______________________________________________

Amazonian rainforest bioaerosol influenced by African dust intrusion

Abstract summary

Biological particles form an important but poorly understood part of Amazonian aerosols, with implications for ecosystems, climate, and human health. The study shows that African dust plumes transport microbial communities across the Atlantic into the Amazon rainforest.

Researchers characterized bacterial, fungal, and archaeal communities in air samples collected at 42 m and 323 m above ground at the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO). They compared background conditions with a five-day North African dust intrusion.

  • Under background conditions, bacterial communities varied with height and time (reflecting mixed local and transported sources). Fungal communities remained stable and were dominated by locally produced fungi.
  • During the dust event, bacterial communities shifted strongly toward microorganisms associated with dryland soils, biological soil crusts, and marine environments. Fungal communities stayed essentially unchanged.
  • Airborne endotoxin concentrations increased threefold, with no enrichment of obligate pathogens.

The results demonstrate that African dust is not only a mineral nutrient source for the Amazon but also a vector for intercontinental microbial transport, with potential consequences for ecosystem functioning, atmospheric processes, and human health.

Key context from the paper and related releases

  • Sampling occurred in February 2020 over a multi- week period that included the dust event.
  • Genetic (amplicon sequencing) analyses identified the microbial shifts; mineral and trajectory data confirmed the Saharan origin (air- mass travel time ~10 days).
  • The strong bacterial response (including increases in groups such as Bacillota typical of arid soils and biocrusts) contrasts with the resilience of the fungal community, attributed to high local rainforest spore emissions.
  • Endotoxins (bacterial cell- wall components) rose markedly and can promote inflammation; prior Caribbean studies have linked Saharan dust episodes to respiratory effects, though Amazon- specific impacts remain to be studied.
  • No strong signal of disease- causing (obligate pathogen) enrichment was found, the transported community was primarily environmental.

Corresponding authors: Jens Weber (j.weber@mpic.de) and Bettina Weber (bettina.weber@uni-graz.at).

The work involves the University of Graz, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, and Brazilian collaborators, with support from German, Brazilian, and Austrian funding agencies.

The full article, supplementary data, and peer- review file are available on the Nature page (open access under CC BY 4.0). The abstract and press materials provide the core findings; the complete methods, detailed community profiles, and figures are in the paper itself.

Journal: Communications Earth & Environment

DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-04119-1

Provided: Max Planck Society

Published: 27 October 2026, (Open access; early version subject to final edits).

Authors: Jens Weber,
Isabella Hrabe de Angelis,
Sebastian Brill,
Cybelli G. G. Barbosa,
Michal T. Chilinski,
Kalliopi Violaki,
Stefanie Maier,
Petya Yordanova,
Rodrigo Paidano Alves,
Cleo Q. Dias-Junior,
Alessandro Araújo,
Janine Fröhlich-Nowoisky,
Paulo Artaxo,
Ricardo H. M. Godoi,
Ulrich Pöschl,
Christopher Pöhlker &
Bettina Weber

‘Green’ Energy Tradeoffs

LinkedIn is a major debate ground for all things climate and energy. The narrative of alarmists and forced energy transformationists (there is an industry of them, most from Europe) cannot get away with much.
Many energy realists post useful information that advances the debate. Ken Brook from Australia was asked SO HOW GREEN ARE RENEWABLES – err solar and wind factories?“.

Infographic illustrating 'Green' Energy Tradeoffs, comparing clean energy generation with environmental costs of resource extraction. The left side shows renewable energy sources like wind and solar power with benefits such as low carbon emissions, while the right side depicts industrial smelting and open-pit mining, highlighting environmental impacts and resource use.
AI generated by Meta

From Master Resource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

“There are currently no large-scale, proven ways to make the foundations of modern civilisation without coal, oil and gas…. all we achieve [from climate mitigation policies] is exporting the pollution, hollowing out our own industrial base, and destroying our sovereignty, security and prosperity as a nation.” – Ken Brook (below)

LinkedIn is a major debate ground for all things climate and energy. The narrative of alarmists and forced energy transformationists (there is an industry of them, most from Europe) cannot get away with much. I actively participate on LinkedIn with more than 16,000 followers.

Many energy realists post useful information that advances the debate. Ken Brook from Australia was asked SO HOW GREEN ARE RENEWABLES – err solar and wind factories?“. He listed the upstream problems of wind, solar, and batteries in a comment:

“The critical minerals behind ‘clean’ technology come with realities we rarely acknowledge; wind turbines and EV motors depend on high-coercivity NdFeB magnets made from neodymium and praseodymium, stabilised with dysprosium and terbium sourced mainly from the toxic hell-hole rare-earth refineries of Inner Mongolia and illegal operations in Myanmar;

  • Lithium extraction in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia drains fragile salt-flat aquifers and deprives native peoples of water rights in one of the most arid regions on Earth;
  • Copper and silver for solar farms and transmission lines are mined at huge environmental cost in Chile, Peru and Ecuador;
  • Indonesian nickel for “green” batteries is refined in coal-fired smelters that destroy rainforests and coral reefs; battery-grade graphite is overwhelmingly processed in China and Madagascar using hydrofluoric acid (HF) purification that leaves behind toxic residues;
  • Polysilicon for solar panels comes largely from Xinjiang where coercive Uyghur labour programs and HF-intensive processing raise serious ethical and environmental concerns;
  • Cobalt still depends heavily on artisanal and child labour in dangerous hand-dug pits in Congo; and tin for EV and electronics solder is dominated by Myanmar and Indonesia;

because Australia refuses to develop serious onshore refining or magnet manufacturing, we export the toxic chemistry, the water theft, the labour abuses and the ecological destruction to poorer nations while congratulating ourselves for being “green” — a level of moral hypocrisy we should no longer tolerate.

Brooks then lists the fossil-fuel imperatives:

There are currently no large-scale, proven ways to make the foundations of modern civilisation without coal, oil and gas; we still rely on them for steel and aluminium smelting; cement and clinker production; plastics, solvents and chemical feedstocks; nitrogen fertilisers and ammonia; pharmaceuticals and synthetic precursors; rubber, glass and asphalt; high-temperature industrial heat for kilns, refineries and smelters; and the diesel, shipping fuel and jet fuel that actually move ores, food and freight; forcing a rapid fossil phase-out before we have engineered substitutes doesn’t eliminate these processes, it simply offshores them to countries with weaker labour, environmental and emissions standards

He ends:

Unless we think this through properly, all we achieve is exporting the pollution, hollowing out our own industrial base, and destroying our sovereignty, security and prosperity as a nation.

Brooks’s message for Australia is for the world.

Wrong, AP and NPR: Europe’s 50,000 Heat Deaths Are a Computer-Model Estimate, Not a Real Body Count

National Public Radio (NPR), reprinted an Associated Press (AP) report from climate reporter Seth Borenstein titled “Europe’s heat claims 50,000 lives. Climate change blamed for two-thirds of deaths,” which claims that summer heat killed 50,391 Europeans in 2026 and that human-caused climate change killed 32,619 of them. This is false.

Modeled numbers are presented by NPR as observed deaths when they are not. The data show that neither number is a count of actual people medically determined to have died from heat or climate change; both are statistical constructs produced by computer models.

Infographic stating that Europe's reported 50,000 heat deaths are based on computer modeling and not actual confirmed mortality counts.
AI generated by Meta

From ClimateRealism

By Anthony Watts

A concerned man with glasses looking directly at the camera with a worried expression, wrapped in a purple blanket. A speech bubble above him reads 'I see dead people.'

National Public Radio (NPR), reprinted an Associated Press (AP) report from climate reporter Seth Borenstein titled “Europe’s heat claims 50,000 lives. Climate change blamed for two-thirds of deaths,” which claims that summer heat killed 50,391 Europeans in 2026 and that human-caused climate change killed 32,619 of them. This is false. Modeled numbers are presented by NPR as observed deaths when they are not. The data show that neither number is a count of actual people medically determined to have died from heat or climate change; both are statistical constructs produced by computer models.

Here is the basis of the false headline:

Researchers modeled heat-related deaths for different age groups in 854 European cities during repeated heat waves in June, July and August and found that 50,391 people died from warmer temperatures, and of those, 32,619 died because of the extra heat caused by the burning of coal, oil and gas, according to a study in an upcoming issue of Nature Health.

The 50,391 “heat deaths” are imaginary in the literal sense that neither AP nor NPR can produce a list of 50,391 people whose deaths were determined to have been caused by heat. The researchers did not count them, they modeled them. NPR eventually admits exactly that: “The scientific team also had to use statistical modeling to come up with the base count of 50,000 heat deaths.” That sentence demolishes the impression created by NPR’s headline.

There is no observed body count of 50,000 and more heat victims. Instead, there are mortality records, temperature records, statistical relationships between temperature and mortality, and a mathematical model that estimates how many deaths might be associated with temperatures above a calculated optimum. The resulting number is merely an estimate. AP and NPR irresponsibly report it as though there is an actual body count.

Then the researchers take that imaginary statistical population of 50,391 heat deaths and run another modeling exercise to determine how many were supposedly caused by climate change. Again, the story admits how this was done: “They ran computer simulations of a world without climate change and compared it to the deaths that happened this summer. The difference is what was caused by global warming.” Except NPR’s wording is misleading even there. The researchers weren’t comparing their imaginary climate with 50,391 individually identified heat deaths that “happened this summer.” The base heat-death number was itself produced statistically.

So, we have a model estimating how many people died from heat, followed by another model estimating what temperatures would have existed in a hypothetical world without human-caused climate change, followed by a calculation estimating how many of the first model’s estimated deaths would not have occurred in the second model’s imaginary world.

Out comes the wonderfully exact number of 32,619 climate-change deaths. Not approximately 30,000 or somewhere around 33,000, but exactly 32,619. That precision is almost comical considering that the people represented by the number were never individually identified as climate-change fatalities in the first place. There are no 32,619 death certificates saying “climate change.” There aren’t even 50,391 death certificates saying “heat.”

That doesn’t mean nobody died during Europe’s heat waves. Of course, people died, and some deaths may well have been caused or hastened by heat. Elderly people and those suffering cardiovascular, respiratory, and other illnesses can be especially vulnerable to extreme temperatures. More than half of NPR’s modeled deaths were among people aged 85 and older. But that is very different from claiming, as NPR’s headline does, that “Europe’s heat claims 50,000 lives.”

This distinction becomes even more important because the calculation depends upon assumptions about how mortality responds to temperature. The researchers used mathematical temperature-mortality relationships for different ages and cities, identifying an “optimal” temperature associated with minimum mortality and calculating additional deaths when temperatures departed from it. It makes sense on the surface, but those relationships are not scientific laws. Humans adapt to make themselves safer, like by simply buying an air conditioning unit. Physicians are better at treating heat stress, buildings improve, work schedules change, and vulnerable elderly residents are checked by relatives and social services.

Adaptation works. A 2024 Nature Medicine study estimated that European heat-related mortality during 2023 would have been 80 percent higher without adaptation since 2000. Among people over age 80, estimated mortality would have been more than twice as high without adaptation. It should be obvious that there is a problem with taking temperature-mortality relationships developed from previous years and treating them as though the conditions remain fixed. The Watts Up With That analysis, “Climate Death Toll: Batteries Not Included,” points directly to this problem. The calculation starts with historical temperature-mortality relationships, extrapolates them to hundreds of European cities, applies them to current temperatures and populations, and then compares the result against an imaginary counterfactual climate. Each stage adds assumptions, yet by the time the number reaches NPR, most of those assumptions have vanished and the model output has become a supposedly real death toll.

There is another glaring omission: cold. A major 2021 study published in The Lancet Planetary Health examined temperature and mortality across 750 locations in 43 countries. It estimated that 8.52 percent of deaths were associated with cold compared with just 0.91 percent associated with heat. By the same sort of statistical reasoning NPR is willing to accept for heat, cold was associated with roughly nine times as many deaths. More importantly, from 2000-2003 to 2016-2019, declining cold-associated mortality more than offset increasing heat-associated mortality. The result was a net decline in temperature-related mortality.

Climate at a Glance discusses the same research and notes that the decline in cold mortality associated with modest warming produced an estimated net reduction of approximately 166,000 premature temperature-related deaths from 2000 through 2019.  Curiously, NPR doesn’t produce a headline saying, “Global Warming Saves Thousands of Lives by Reducing Deadly Cold.” That apparently isn’t considered newsworthy.

The broader historical record is even more devastating to the suggestion that humanity is becoming increasingly helpless against climate. Climate at a Glance reports that deaths from weather-related disasters have declined by more than 99 percent during the past century. Average annual deaths from extreme weather disasters fell from approximately 485,000 during the 1920s to fewer than 8,000 around 2020. That is not what an escalating climate mortality crisis looks like.

Indeed, NPR’s own experts call for heat-warning systems, cooling, and neighborhood programs to check on vulnerable residents. Those are sensible measures that can save actual lives during the next heat wave, and they demonstrate something the climate narrative routinely obscures: people adapt.

There is nothing inherently improper about epidemiologists constructing statistical estimates. Such models can be useful tools for identifying risks, allocating resources, and developing public-health policy. But statistical estimates aren’t observational data.

If NPR wants to report that researchers estimate approximately 50,000 excess deaths statistically associated with summer temperatures, say so. If researchers further estimate, using a counterfactual climate model, that anthropogenic warming contributed to some fraction of that statistical mortality, say that too. But don’t tell readers that Europe’s heat “claims 50,000 lives” and that climate change killed exactly 32,619 people when nobody counted those deaths. A model can calculate an estimate, generate a counterfactual, and assign statistical probabilities, but a computer model cannot examine a body, determine a cause of death, sign a death certificate, or count a dead person.

NPR’s dead Europeans are imaginary people generated by a model, and the 32,619 supposedly killed by climate change are imaginary people generated from the imaginary people. Both AP and NPR act is if they are saying a famous movie line, “I see dead people.”

Indian Ocean’s Autumn Warming Shapes Europe’s December Storms and Rainfall

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a pattern of sea- surface temperature differences across the tropical Indian Ocean, shows a statistically detectable teleconnection to early- winter (especially December) rainfall patterns and storm activity over the North Atlantic- European- Mediterranean (NAEM) region.

The study examines the response of winter precipitation and storm activity in the North Atlantic- European- Mediterranean (NAEM) region to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over 1979–2024 (using ERA5 data).

The results highlight a significant remote impact of the autumn IOD on early-winter hydroclimate in the NAEM region and its potential value for improving sub- seasonal to seasonal predictions.

An illustration depicting ocean currents and weather patterns, featuring warm, swirling waters on the left side transitioning to storm systems and cyclones over Europe on the right.
AI generated by Grok

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a pattern of sea- surface temperature differences across the tropical Indian Ocean, shows a statistically detectable teleconnection to early- winter (especially December) rainfall patterns and storm activity over the North Atlantic- European- Mediterranean (NAEM) region.

This link is described in a 2025 Geophysical Research Letters paper by M. Reale and colleagues (including A. Raganato, F. D’Andrea, M. Adnan Abid, A. Hochman, and others) and explained in a popular summary by lead author Marco Reale on phys.org (28 October 2026).

Key background

  • The positive IOD phase features warmer- than- usual waters in the western tropical Indian Ocean relative to the east (the reverse for the negative phase). It typically peaks in boreal autumn.
  • Tropical SST anomalies alter where air rises and where latent heat is released, disturbing large- scale atmospheric circulation. These effects can propagate far from the tropics as teleconnections, not by moisture literally traveling from the Indian Ocean to Europe, but by changing the atmospheric flow itself.

Main findings (based on 1979–2024 data)

Researchers examined atmospheric pressure, multiple rainfall metrics (totals, wet-day frequency, wet- spell length), and cyclone tracks, while statistically isolating the IOD signal from its linear relationship with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

  • The clearest signal appears in December.
  • Positive IOD conditions are linked to a north– south rainfall contrast: wetter conditions over parts of the northern Atlantic and drier conditions farther south, including the western-central Mediterranean. This involves changes in total precipitation, the frequency of wet days, and the duration of wet spells.
  • Cyclone (storm) activity is reduced over the eastern Atlantic and western Mediterranean in December.
  • The broader signal weakens later in winter (January- February). A positive NAO- like pressure pattern over the NAEM region emerges in December and shifts eastward through February.

Atmospheric mechanism

The changes in cyclone track density are primarily driven by variations in the Eady growth rate (a measure of baroclinic instability that favors extratropical storm development). These are tied to enhanced vertical wind shear associated with a strengthened meridional (north- south) temperature gradient over the NAEM region. In short, the IOD modulates the large-scale environment that supports (or suppresses) storm growth.

Implications and caveats

The relationship is statistical, it describes tendencies across many years, not a deterministic forecast for any single December. Other climate drivers and internal atmospheric variability still matter, and the study does not itself demonstrate improved forecast skill. However, it suggests that autumn IOD conditions could provide useful information for sub- seasonal to seasonal predictions of early- winter hydroclimate in the NAEM region, particularly when focusing on specific months, regions, and rainfall characteristics rather than a bulk winter average.

In essence, Europe’s early- winter weather is shaped not only by nearby Atlantic and Mediterranean systems but also by remote tropical Indian Ocean conditions from the preceding autumn.

Four maps showing seasonal atmospheric data over the European region, with color gradients indicating varying track densities during different months (October, December, January, February). Black contours outline landmasses.
December changes in cyclone track density associated with the autumn Indian Ocean Dipole, after statistically accounting for its linear relationship with El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The map shows where cyclone activity tends to increase or decrease; stippling marks statistically significant relationships. Credit: Geophysical Research Letters (2025). DOI: 10.1029/2025gl116732

Response of Early Winter Precipitation and Storm Activity in the North Atlantic–European–Mediterranean Region to Indian Ocean SST Variability

Abstract (summary)

The study examines the response of winter precipitation and storm activity in the North Atlantic- European- Mediterranean (NAEM) region to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over 1979–2024 (using ERA5 data).

  • A positive NAO- like pattern appears over the NAEM in December and shifts eastward through February.
  • The IOD modulates precipitation (total amounts, event frequency, and wet-spell duration).
  • The teleconnection is primarily significant in December.
  • Cyclone activity decreases in December over the East Atlantic and Western Mediterranean.
  • These cyclone- track density changes are driven mainly by variations in the Eady Growth Rate, linked to enhanced vertical wind shear from a strengthened meridional temperature gradient.

The results highlight a significant remote impact of the autumn IOD on early-winter hydroclimate in the NAEM region and its potential value for improving sub- seasonal to seasonal predictions.⁠

Key Points

  • Winter precipitation and storm activity show a mainly December long- term significant response to the Indian Ocean Dipole.
  • Spatial changes in environmental baroclinicity drive the observed changes in storm activity in December.
  • Latitudinal variations of baroclinicity are linked to stronger vertical wind shear driven by an enhanced meridional temperature gradient.

Methods (briefly)

  • Data: ERA5 reanalysis (1979–2025), detrended anomalies.
  • IOD index: Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for October, with the linear ENSO (NINO-3.4) influence removed to isolate the residual IOD signal (iod_RES).
  • Storm activity: Objective cyclone tracking on 6-hourly MSLP fields; track density on a 2° grid.
  • Baroclinicity: Eady Growth Rate (EGR) between 850 and 500 hPa.
  • Analysis: Linear regression of atmospheric and precipitation fields onto the residual autumn IOD index. Precipitation extremes use Climdex indices (e.g., total wet-day precipitation, number of wet days, consecutive wet days, etc.).

Main results

  • Strongest and most significant circulation response (positive NAO- like MSLP pattern) occurs in December. The pattern weakens and shifts eastward later in winter.
  • Positive residual IOD is associated with a north- south precipitation dipole (wetter conditions farther north, drier in the western- central Mediterranean), affecting totals, frequency of wet days, and wet- spell length.
  • Reduced cyclone track density over the eastern Atlantic and western Mediterranean in December, consistent with reduced Eady Growth Rate driven primarily by changes in vertical wind shear (linked to a stronger north- south temperature gradient).

Conclusions

The autumn IOD exerts a robust remote influence on early- winter (especially December) hydroclimate and storm activity over the NAEM region via changes in baroclinicity.

This supports the value of incorporating Indian Ocean variability into sub-seasonal- to- seasonal forecast systems for Europe and the Mediterranean. The authors note the need for further work on how climate change may alter the stationarity of this teleconnection.

The full paper (including figures of MSLP, precipitation indices, cyclone tracks, EGR, wind shear, etc., plus supporting information) is available open access via the Wiley link or institutional repositories (e.g., Oxford Research Archive, HAL).

Title: Response of Early Winter Precipitation and Storm Activity in the North Atlantic–European–Mediterranean Region to Indian Ocean SST Variability

Journal: Geophysical Research Letters, (Volume 52, Issue 20, e2025GL116732)

DOI: 10.1029/2025gl116732.

First published: 16 October 2025

Authors: M. Reale, A. Raganato, F. D’Andrea, M. Adnan Abid, A. Hochman, N. R. Chowdhury, S. Salon, F. Kucharski