Temperature Alarmism: WSJ Fail (Doug Sheridan corrects)

It’s an election year. The mainstream media (including the news side of the WSJ) is in the tank for climate alarmism, forced energy transformation, and a Biden reelection. Reader beware!

From Master Resource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

“It’s an election year. The mainstream media (including the news side of the WSJ) is in the tank for climate alarmism, forced energy transformation, and a Biden reelection. Reader Beware!”

“Millions of Americans Brace for Dangerous Heat Wave, Record-Breaking Temperatures,” wrote Gareth Vipers for the Wall Street Journal (June 18, 2024). “Triple-digit temperatures are expected across much of the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and New England.”

Doug Sheridan graded the news article:

Last week, after a  news article warned of almost 70 MM people coming under threat of extreme heat in the US Midwest and Northeast, we posted our intention to audit the accuracy of the article and forecast by examinating the actual temps recorded after the fact. Here’s a link to that June 18th post. 

Well, last week has come and gone, and we’ve completed the audit. It’s not pretty. While we had hoped it would show reporting and forecasts in 2024 improved over prior years, we were disappointed. Below is a summary of the results of the audit, with temp data per :

— Only four of 14 weather stations in seven Midwestern and Northeastern states over the five days incurred a single *record* high. Three were highs of 96, 96 and 98 F at Manchester-Boston Regional airport on Jun 18, 19, and 20. Another high was set at Midway Airport in Chicago on the 20th. The remaining highs at all stations averaged just 88.8 F… almost 9 degrees *below* the average of the stations’ record highs.

— Notably, four of the 14 stations—Wausau WI, Peoria IL, Mt Pleasant MI, and Greenfield MA—recorded at least one day in which the high didn’t even reach the historical *average* temp for the station. That certainly doesn’t comport with the existence of widespread extreme heat.

— For the remaining 76 non-record-breaking measurements, the seven large urban stations averaged highs of 90.5 F over the five days, 7.4 degrees below the average of record highs for those same stations. This compares to average recorded highs of 86.3 F for the seven small-town weather stations, a full 10.5 degrees below their average record highs and 4.2 degrees lower than the large urban stations.

— Remarkably, for three of the five days—the 20th, 21st and 22nd—the average highs across all 14 stations were closer to the historic daily *average* temps than to the record temps for the day.

— Evidence of a heat-island effect might exist in the data. To wit, across all observations, the seven large urban stations recorded highs 1.1 F above the seven small-town stations in the same seven states. What’s more, no (ie, zero) record highs were recorded in the small towns… compared to four record highs in the large urban locales. Kinda suspicious, no?

— Not a single station on a single day (80 observations in all) recorded a temp of “triple-digits” as the WSJ article warned. Zero!

Conclusion

If we had to hand out a grade for the combined efforts of the WSJ reporting and the underlying forecasts, it would be a D or D-minus. You see, a five-day period in which the average high hits just 88.4 F simply doesn’t justify the “Dangerous Heat Wave” piece that was published in the WSJ. Period.

Of course, it’s a long summer, and we’ll post more audits as it heats up. Maybe those will show reported forecasts to be more accurate. Until then, stay tuned… safe… and cool.

—————–

It’s an election year. The mainstream media (including the news side of the WSJ) is in the tank for climate alarmism, forced energy transformation, and a Biden reelection. Reader beware!

Milloy in the WSJ, Beware the Heat Hype: The Misleading Madness of ‘Mean Global Temperatures’

Anyone who follows the climate debate closely, would have heard the recent announcement that July 3 and 4 were allegedly the ‘hottest days ever’. This claim, it seems, is as solid as quicksand, built on a shaky foundation of guesswork and political objectives.

From Watts Up With That?

Anyone who follows the climate debate closely, would have heard the recent announcement that July 3 and 4 were allegedly the ‘hottest days ever’. This claim, it seems, is as solid as quicksand, built on a shaky foundation of guesswork and political objectives.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hottest-days-ever-dont-believe-it-global-temperature-north-sole-poles-6e64a991

The Untrustworthy Tapestry of Temperature Measurement

As Steve Milloy astutely highlights in his recent Wall Street Journal article, “Hottest Days Ever? Don’t Believe It,” the recorded average global temperature of 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit for these dates was derived from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer. As Milloy notes, this system “relies on a mix of satellite temperature data and computer-model guesstimation to calculate estimates of temperature.”

In the realm of scientific research, ‘guesstimation’ is hardly a term that inspires confidence. As Milloy succinctly puts it,

“there are no satellite data from 125,000 years ago. Calculated estimates of current temperatures can’t be fairly compared with guesses of global temperature from thousands of years ago.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hottest-days-ever-dont-believe-it-global-temperature-north-sole-poles-6e64a991?mod=opinion_major_pos4#comments_sector

The Misleading Mirage of ‘Average Global Temperature’Furthermore, Milloy debunks the fallacy of ‘average global temperature’. He states,

“Average global temperature is a concept invented by and for the global-warming hypothesis. It is more a political concept than a scientific one.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hottest-days-ever-dont-believe-it-global-temperature-north-sole-poles-6e64a991?mod=opinion_major_pos4#comments_sector

Seasonal changes and regional disparities, as Milloy points out, severely compromise the concept of a singular ‘global temperature.’ For instance, temperatures rise during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer due to increased land exposure to sunlight, a fact conveniently overlooked by the climate alarmist contingent.

The Blind Spots and Blur in Climate Data

The issue of precision (or rather, the lack thereof) in temperature data is another issue Milloy brings to the fore.

 An alarming 96% of U.S. temperature stations reportedly produce corrupted data, and about 92% of them have a margin of error of nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit.

 So, next time you hear about a 1-degree rise in global temperatures, remember that the margin of error itself exceeds the supposed increase!Our friends at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration present global temperatures starting from 1880, but regular temperature collection in remote regions like the north and south poles came much later. Can we really make meaningful and accurate comparisons when we’ve been effectively blindfolded for a significant portion of our observational timeline?

The Dilemma of Characterizing Earth’s Warming

As Milloy so eloquently sums up,

“It isn’t plausible to characterize Earth’s warming in a single average number, especially when we don’t really know what that number is today, much less from 125,000 years ago.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hottest-days-ever-dont-believe-it-global-temperature-north-sole-poles-6e64a991?mod=opinion_major_pos4#comments_sector

This, ladies and gentlemen, hits the nail right on the head.

So, the next time you hear the phrase ‘hottest day ever,’ remember to take it with a pinch of salt. Perhaps even a bucketful. After all, a touch of skepticism in the face of potentially misleading data can go a long way in keeping us grounded to the realities of our complex and ever-changing climate.

What’s your take on the ‘hottest days ever’ and the average global temperature controversy? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.