Tag: The Little Ice Age (LIA)

April 2026, Cooling Temperatures Lead to CO2 Rate Decline

2025 ended with a steadily declining rate of rising CO2 in the atmosphere following a 20 month cooling since April 2024, peak of an unusual and unexplained warming spike. That rate declined further in the first four months of 2026.

From Science Matters

By Ron Clutz

2025 ended with a steadily declining rate of rising CO2 in the atmosphere following a 20-month cooling since April 2024, peak of an unusual and unexplained warming spike. That rate declined further in the first four months of 2026. Historical records show that around 1875 was the coldest time in the last 10,000 years. That was the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA), and since then temperatures have warmed at an average rate of about 0.5C per century. The recovery of the biosphere and ocean warming resulted in rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Syun-Ichi Akasofu, founder of the University of Alaska Fairbanks’ Geophysical Institute reported on this pattern in 2009.

At times, there are warming spikes, in the 1930s and 40s for example, and the rate of rising CO2 goes up. At other times, such as 1950s and 60s, temperatures cool, and rising CO2 slows down. More recently, in 2023 and 24, we saw temperatures spike up before falling back down in 2025 and now in 2026. [Note: A study of ocean biochemistry processes confirms that since the end of the LIA rising temperatures have been accompanied by rising CO2 at a rate of ~2 ppm per year.

[ See: Slam Dunk: Δtemp Drives Δco2, Ocean Biochemistry at Work ]

Furthermore, going back to previous warmings prior to the satellite record shows that the entire rise of 0.8C since 1947 is due to oceanic, not human activity.

Importantly, the theory of human-caused global warming asserts that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere changes the baseline and causes systemic warming in our climate.  On the contrary, all of the warming since 1947 was episodic, coming from three brief events associated with oceanic cycles. And in 2024 we saw an amazing episode with a temperature spike driven by ocean air warming in all regions, along with rising NH land temperatures, now dropping well below its peak.

Previously I have demonstrated that changes in atmospheric CO2 levels follow changes in Global Mean Temperatures (GMT) as shown by satellite measurements from University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH). A link to that background post is provided later below.

This post updates the analysis with the most current observations, testing the premise that temperature changes are predictive of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  The chart at the top shows the two monthly datasets: CO2 levels in blue reported at Mauna Loa, and Global temperature anomalies in purple reported by UAHv6.1, both through April 2026. Would such a sharp increase in temperature be reflected in rising CO2 levels, according to the successful mathematical forecasting model? Would CO2 levels decline as temperatures dropped following the peak?

The answer is yes: that temperature spike resulted
in a corresponding CO2 spike as expected.
And lower CO2 levels followed the temperature decline.

Above are UAH temperature anomalies compared to CO2 monthly changes year over year.

Changes in monthly CO2 synchronize with temperature fluctuations, which for UAH are anomalies referenced to the 1991-2020 period. CO2 differentials are calculated for the present month by subtracting the value for the same month in the previous year (for example April 2026 minus April 2025).  Temp anomalies are calculated by comparing the present month with the baseline month. Note the recent CO2 upward spike and drop following the temperature spike and drop.

The table below shows clearly the pattern of observed temperatures declining along with declining rates of rising observed CO2. The CO2 rate peaked at 4.41 ppm, then declined over the next 25 months to 1.48 ppm, nearly the baseline rate since the LIA. There are fluctuations in the CO2 monthly response since the differential is influenced by the previous year as well as current year.  By 2026/4, the rate of 1.48 ppm was one-third of the peak rate of 4.41 ppm.

Monthtemperature anomalyco2 Diff. from previous year
202410.793.32
202420.864.23
202430.874.41
202440.943.14
202450.782.87
202460.73.25
202470.743.72
202480.753.31
202490.83.53
2024100.733.56
2024110.643.39
2024120.623.54
202510.463.85
202520.52.54
202530.582.77
202540.613.13
202550.53.61
202560.482.70
202570.362.32
202580.392.49
202590.532.34
2025100.532.49
2025110.432.61
2025120.32.09
202610.351.97
202620.392.26
202630.382.01
202640.391.48

The final proof that CO2 follows temperature due to stimulation of natural CO2 reservoirs is demonstrated by the ability to calculate CO2 levels since 1979 with a simple mathematical formula:

For each subsequent year, the CO2 level for each month was generated

CO2  this month this year = a + b × Temp this month this year  + CO2 this month last year

The values for a and b are constants applied to all monthly temps, and are chosen to scale the forecasted CO2 level for comparison with the observed value. Here is the result of those calculations.

In the chart calculated CO2 levels correlate with observed CO2 levels at 0.9988 out of 1.0000. This mathematical generation of CO2 atmospheric levels is only possible if they are driven by temperature-dependent natural sources, and not by human emissions which are small in comparison, rise steadily and monotonically. For a more detailed look at the recent fluxes, here are the results since 2015, an ENSO neutral year.

For this recent period, the calculated CO2 values match well the annual highs, while some annual generated values of CO2 are slightly higher or lower than observed at other months of the year. Still the correlation for this period is 0.9946.

Key Point

Changes in CO2 follow changes in global temperatures on all time scales, from last month’s observations to ice core datasets spanning millennia. Since CO2 is the lagging variable, it cannot logically be the cause of temperature, the leading variable. It is folly to imagine that by reducing human emissions of CO2, we can change global temperatures, which are obviously driven by other factors.

Background on Analytics and Methodology

Temps Cause CO2 Changes, Not the Reverse. 2024 Update

Time: US Snow Storms and the Australian Heat Wave are Both Global Warming

Last week my family enjoyed a BBQ with friends at a seaside park on the beautiful Fraser Coast. But apparently are all suffering a climate catastrophe.

A dramatic landscape featuring a swirling tornado, striking lightning, and a turbulent sea crashing against icy cliffs, all beneath a moody, cloud-filled sky.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Text-based graphic discussing climate claims, contrasting perceptions of the Little Ice Age with current views on global warming and extreme weather.

Last week my family enjoyed a BBQ with friends at a seaside park on the beautiful Fraser Coast. But apparently are all suffering a climate catastrophe.

JAN 31, 2026 7:23 AM AET

Snow Storms in North America. A Record Heat Wave in Australia. Is This Climate Change?

by Simmone Shah
REPORTER

Extreme weather events are battering both ends of the world this week. In the U.S., Winter Storm Fern set snow records in parts of the country last weekend, quickly followed by one of the longest cold-air outbreaks in decades. A bomb cyclone is expected to hit the southeast over the weekend. Across the globe in southern Australia, a heat dome is setting records, with temperatures reaching 120°F—the most severe heat waves the country has experienced in 16 years. 

It’s difficult to outright blame climate change for any one specific weather event, but as our planet warms, it could mean that extremes of all kinds, occurring at the same time around the world, could become the norm. 

From hot days to snow storms, hurricanes and droughts, extreme weather events have always been natural. “We’ve had extreme weather as long as we have records of weather information,” says Lackmann. But research shows that climate change is making them more frequent and intense. “What we’re finding is that the intensity and the frequency of the most extreme events is certainly likely to have the DNA of climate change,” says Marshall Shepherd, director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia and former president of the American Meteorological Society. 

What remains clear is that frigid temperatures and piles of snow by no means disproves climate change. “People will say things like, ‘Hey, it’s snowing. That must mean there’s no such thing as global warming.’” says Shepherd. “I said, ‘No, that just means it’s January in the wintertime.’”

…Read more: https://time.com/7362792/snow-north-america-australia-heat-wave-climate/

If global warming causes unusually hot AND unusually cold weather, what does global cooling cause? Abnormally normal weather?

Actually, we know the answer to what the weather is like when the world cools, and the answer is not good.

A climate of conflict: How the little ice age sparked rebellions and revolutions across Europe

Author links open overlay panel

David Kaniewski a 1, Nick Marriner b 1, Frédéric Luce a, Morgane Escarpe a, Majid Pourkerman c, Thierry Otto a

Highlights

  • •A study based on 140 rebellions and revolutions during the Little Ice Age.
  • •Climate impacted livelihoods, causing poor harvests and higher grain prices.
  • •Led to malnutrition, which increased people’s vulnerability.
  • •Climate did not generate crises but sowed the seeds for uprisings.

Abstract

The Little Ice Age (LIA) – lasting from ∼1250 to ∼1860 – was a long period of cooler, drier conditions, characterized by increased climate instability. The most significant climate extremes were more closely associated with interannual temperature variations or particularly severe, isolated cold spells than with prolonged cold spells lasting many years.

During this pre-industrial phase of climate instability, many rebellions broke out, one of the most famous being the French Revolution of 1789.

A key question, however, relates to the precise and often intricate role of climate in precipitating these widespread uprisings and rebellions that profoundly reshaped human institutions, particularly in the European context.

Using data for solar activity, temperature, precipitation, volcanic forcing and the evolution of grain prices, we compared and contrasted the occurrence of rebellions and revolutions across a wide geographical area comprising Europe-Russia-Ottoman Empire with LIA climate and hazards.

We find that climate change primarily affected people’s livelihoods by reducing harvests, lowering food-resource availability and sharply increasing cereal prices. 

Climate therefore played a major role in heightening population vulnerability by exacerbating one of the greatest scourges: malnutrition. 

For the populace, this fuelled social anger towards political authorities for failing to mitigate the impact of climate change. This study primarily reveals that environmental causes did not generate social crises during the LIA but rather triggered a cascade of environmental and human events that interacted, ultimately leading to highly conflictual situations.

The LIA serves as a warning to modern political systems, highlighting the necessity to anticipate the consequences of current climate change to mitigate its impact on societies and prevent social unrest and conflict.

…Read more: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921818125003479

Given the Little Ice Age was a period of dreadful weather and unstable climatic conditions, and global warming is supposed to bring dreadful weather and unstable climatic conditions, are climate alarmists seriously expecting us to believe the current climate, or perhaps the climate of a hundred years ago, was the perfect balance?

How unlikely is it that out of all the Earth’s climate epochs, through the Earth’s long climate history, we just happen to be living through the century of climate perfection?

Doesn’t it seem more likely if cooler global temperatures bring horrible weather, warmer global temperatures will bring better weather?

We do have paleo evidence warm conditions are more benign. Our monkey ancestors thrived in the hothouse world of the PETM, 5-8C hotter than today. They colonised much of Northern Europe and Russia, only retreating from their new homes when the cold returned.

Fish also thrived during the PETM.

I’m not suggesting weather is a long linear continuum of warmer = better weather across all possible global temperatures, but the alarmist suggestion that we happen to live in a narrow turning point of perfection is absurd.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and I don’t see anyone providing evidence to support the implicit claim that our current climate state, or the climate state of the recent past, is the perfect state we should aspire to.

 More Evidence NE China Is Not Cooperating with the Alarmist Global Warming Narrative

In a new study, scientists have determined that northeastern China’s droughts were far more frequent and intense during the Little Ice Age (LIA) than in the 1950-2021 era of supposedly “alarming” global warming. During the LIA, which the study clarifies as spanning from 1568 to 1850, there were 59 extreme dry events (droughts) in this region, whereas from 1850 to 2021, there were only 8.

Aerial view of terraced farmland in northeastern China, showcasing alternating layers of green crops and brown earth, illustrating agricultural practices in a hilly landscape.
Chinese Loess Plateau

From No Trick Zone

By Kenneth Richard

Northeastern China was at least 5°C (and up to 9°C) warmer than today and droughts (and floods) were far more extreme when CO2 levels were a “safe” 265 ppm.

In a new study, scientists have determined that northeastern China’s droughts were far more frequent and intense during the Little Ice Age (LIA) than in the 1950-2021 era of supposedly “alarming” global warming. During the LIA, which the study clarifies as spanning from 1568 to 1850, there were 59 extreme dry events (droughts) in this region, whereas from 1850 to 2021, there were only 8.

The authors further assert the frequency of extreme dry events have long been associated with cold periods in paleoclimate reconstructions, whereas extreme wet events (floods) are linked to warm periods.

“Our results demonstrate that Northeast Asia was relatively dry during cold periods and comparatively wet during warm periods. … For example, Northeast Asia experienced a wet MWP [Medieval Warm Period], which was the latest warm period.”

Interestingly, the relative humidity of northeast China during the last 40 years was more similar to the levels during the cold LIA than during the 1850 to 1950 period, when there were frequent extreme wet events and almost no extreme dry events.

In sum, the “mild drought from the 1950s to the present day does not exceed natural variability” when considering the context of the past 454 years.

“…long-term hydroclimate records indicate that both the frequency and intensity of recent drought episodes fall well within the range of natural variability observed during the LIA.”

A detailed scientific chart depicting summer hydroclimate variations in Northeast China from 1568 to 2021, showing trends in relative humidity and the frequency of extreme dry and wet events across different historical periods.
Image Source: Liu et al. 2025

Several other studies lend support to the conclusion that a warmer climate is a wetter climate. A paleoclimate reconstruction study utilizing the known limiting temperature for rice agriculture suggests not only that summer temperatures were 5-7°C warmer than present (>26°C vs. 20-21°C today) during the Early Holocene, but “summer rainfall was about 30% higher than modern between about 10,000 and 6,000 cal yr BP” (Dodson et al., 2021).

“The current mean July temperatures are about 20–21°C, however, these are estimated to be above 26°C between 8,500 and 4,200 cal yr BP.”

A scientific article discussing the impacts of climate variations on agriculture in China, focusing on temperature and rainfall changes over time.
Image Source: Dodson et al., 2021

A study published last year (Guo et al., 2024) indicates today’s Loess Plateau mean annual air temperature (MAAT) is 9.86°C, with a mean annual precipitation of 531 mm. From ~2,700 years ago until about 300 years ago the MAAT was 17.02°C (>7°C warmer) and yearly precipitation averaged 903 mm.

Graph depicting the quantitative reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Huangling region of the Chinese Loess Plateau during the Middle and Late Holocene.
Image Source: Guo et al., 2024

The modern era of “alarming” global warming is actually 5-7°C and up to 7-9°C colder in northeastern China (Zheng et al., 2018) than it was during the much warmer Early Holocene, when CO2 was a “safe” 265 ppm.

“…mean annual air temperatures [MAAT] in NE China during the early Holocene were 5-7°C higher than today.”

“MAAT records from the Chinese Loess Plateau also suggested temperature maxima 7-9°C higher than modern during the early Holocene”

Graph comparing reconstructed temperature changes based on proxies from Gushantun peat in Northeast China, showing mean annual air temperatures during the early Holocene were 5-7°C higher than today.
Image Source: Zheng et al., 2018

Northern China was also much warmer than today throughout much of the last 10,000 years. Using the known growth temperature limit for Ceratopteris as evidence, scientists have determined the mean January temperature in northern China was “7.7°C higher than today” throughout the Mid Holocene (Zhang et al., 2022).

Map showing the spatial distribution of Ceratopteris in East China during the mid-Holocene, indicating regions with warmer climate conditions and the northern boundary of the species.
Image Source: Zhang et al., 2022

In sum, there is nothing even remotely unusual about the modern temperatures or precipitation in northeastern Asia that would suggest humans are responsible for warming the climate or intensifying rainfall.

New Study Identifies A Millennial-Scale ‘Striking’ Link Between Solar Forcing And Climate Patterns

“Until now, the origin of the climate dynamics of the Central Andes during the last millennium has been speculative. On the basis of statistical evidence, we have identified solar variability as its origin.” – Schittek et al., 2025

From NoTrickZone

By Kenneth Richard 

“Until now, the origin of the climate dynamics of the Central Andes during the last millennium has been speculative. On the basis of statistical evidence, we have identified solar variability as its origin.” – Schittek et al., 2025

In a new study, scientists have determined:

1) The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a global-scale cold event.

2) Southern Hemisphere (Peruvian Andes) climate (precipitation) variations are robustly linked to variations in solar activity over the last 1,000 years.

3) The modern (1900s-2000s) and Medieval Climate Anomaly climate warmth are associated with reduced rainfall, and the LIA colder temperatures are associated with more precipitation.

“…the LIA was a global event, marked by advance of glaciers worldwide.”

“Solar irradiation is the primary driver for all climate circulation processes on Earth. Evidence for a direct solar influence on the Earth’s climate has been growing.”

“Our study reveals evidence that precipitation changes in the south-eastern Peruvian Andes are linked to variations in solar activity during the LIA [Little Ice Age].”

“Several studies attribute climate cooling during the LIA to solar forcing, particularly during the Wolf, Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton Minima.”

“The position of the ITCZ [Intertropical Convergence Zone] is robustly dependent on the interhemispheric temperature gradient triggered by solar forcing.”

Image Source: Schittek et at., 2025

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The Little Ice Age

The period between 1250 and 1860 is also known as the Little Ice Age. We have already reported on them here a few times. The Little Ice Age was the undoing of the Franklin Expedition, among others. In the search for the Northwest Passage, the crew failed on the ice, although they had set off in the summer. Franklin was in the wrong place at the wrong time. He paid with his death.

From Klimanachrichten

By KlimaNachrichten Editor

The period between 1250 and 1860 is also known as the Little Ice Age. We have already reported on them here a few times. The Little Ice Age was the undoing of the Franklin Expedition, among others. In the search for the Northwest Passage, the crew failed on the ice, although they had set off in the summer. Franklin was in the wrong place at the wrong time. He paid with his death.

But what was the climate like at that time and what were the climate drivers? Volcanoes played a major role, but also a minimum of solar activity. However, the summers were by no means consistently wet and cool.

A 2022 study addresses this topic. From the translated summary.

The Little Ice Age (LIA), which lasted from about 1250 to 1860 AD, was probably the coldest period of the last 8000 years. Using new documentary data and analyses of alpine glacier fluctuations, the complex transition from the medieval climate anomaly to the LIA and the resulting high variability of seasonal temperatures for Europe are described and interpreted.
The onset of LIA was likely different in both hemispheres. The low average temperature of the LIA is primarily due to the high number of cold winters. Conversely, many summers were warm and dry.

Important triggers of the lower temperatures were primarily the numerous clusters of volcanic eruptions and the weak solar radiation during the four prominent Great Solar Minima: Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton.
The temperature drop triggered the sea-ice-albedo feedback and led to a weakening of the Atlantic orbital circulation, possibly associated with a trend towards negative North Atlantic Oscillation indices.

The statistics of extreme events show a mixed picture. Correlations with forcing factors are weak and can only be found in the context of the “years without a summer”, which very often occurred after large volcanic eruptions.

We must always keep in mind that in the middle of the 19th century, several factors came together. After one of the coldest periods of the last 8,000 years, a climatic countermovement followed. In addition, the industrialization of the world and the massive use of coal began. Landmasses were reshaped on a large scale, such as during the settlement of North America.
In addition, the time was also the birth of modern meteorology. In the Crimean War, France had lost large parts of its fleet due to a storm for which it was not prepared. As a lesson from this, weather forecasts were made on the basis of data, of course in no comparison to today. However, warnings of severe weather were still possible at that time due to the use of telegraphy. So a lot came together.

A recent study on the topic finds volcanism “responsible” (51% involved), but also a participation of the “North Atlantic Oscillation” (NAO), which particularly influences the winters in Europe and even a participation of the “IPO” (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation at the other end of the world) to 28%. In any case, we would do well to remember that nothing in nature is constant and romanticized images from the period before the middle of the 19th century are to be viewed critically. So the next time we hear the phrase “before industrialization”, please remember this article.